“It’s Not All Crashing” In Florida
TC Palm reports from Florida. “Don’t expect the Treasure Coast real estate market to make any positive strides until 2009. That’s according to a new report by (exonomist) Hank Fishkind. ‘It’s going to take some time to absorb the inventory levels in the residential market,’ Fishkind said. ‘Residential housing prices rise like rockets and drop like feathers.’”
“‘I can tell you that sales have slowed in our area because of rising inventory, so it will take a while for things to settle down here,’ said Sherry Wetzel, president of the Realtors Association of St. Lucie County. ‘We do have about 3,500 homes for sale at the moment, but I don’t think that it will take until 2009 for things to recover.’”
“Overall, Fishkind said the Treasure Coast real estate market is still doing better than other parts of the county. ‘It’s not all crashing, we’re not seeing an overall market deterioration.’ Fishkind said.”
From Business First. “M/I Homes Inc. warned investors Thursday of a drop in sales in the fourth quarter and for the year, with its Florida market suffering the most from the depressed housing market. The builder saw new contracts in Florida fall 60.2 percent to 640, from 1,609 new contracts signed in 2005.”
The Orlando Sentinel. “Orlando’s hot housing market lost much of its spark in the second half of 2006. The number of homes for sale in December dipped below 20,000 properties for the first time since July, to 19,537 listings. But that still represented a more than 11-month supply at the recent, more sluggish sales pace.”
“‘There’s just a lot more supply than demand out there,’ said William Weaver, a University of Central Florida finance professor and real-estate specialist. ‘Basic economics 101 tells you that prices are going to get softer.’”
“Weaver warned that, even with lower interest rates, many home buyers who bought at or near the market’s peak in 2004 or 2005 using ‘various exotic mortgages’ and adjustable loans with low ‘teaser rates’ will be trying to sell in the weaker market.”
“Many mortgages will be adjusting upward, pushing the monthly carrying costs out of reach for some. ‘Those folks are going to be in trouble,’ he said.”
The News Journal. “Although 2006 was its third-best sales year in history, the Pensacola Association of Realtors is going on the offensive to stimulate more housing sales. The 2,350-member group launched a major advertising campaign Thursday centered on a simple message: It’s a good time to buy a home.”
“‘Interest rates are down, and the inventory of homes for sale is very good,’ said Doug Gooch, the newly installed president of the association.”
“Gooch said even if the Florida Legislature cannot find a way to lower taxes and insurance rates, the economic advantages of owning a home still make sense.”
The Herald Tribune. “This will probably not come as a major surprise: The Sarasota Association of Realtors thinks it is time to buy. Many of the group’s 4,200 members experienced a tough 2006.”
“The ‘Time2Buy’ effort is the first large-scale marketing campaign in the association’s history, said Kathy Roberts, SAR’s chief executive. Expect to see Realtors wearing ‘Time2Buy’ buttons. Also expect to see advertisements in magazines, Web sites, newspapers, billboards, television, radio and at Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport.”
“‘If you have missed an earlier opportunity to purchase a home, now is the time to take advantage of low interest rates, stabilizing home prices and a plentiful inventory of homes,’ Roberts said in a statement. ‘We are discovering that savvy buyers are finding sellers to be more flexible in their pricing than perhaps anytime in the past three years.’”
“(Realtor) John Allen contends that ‘the campaign will focus on information that has not been reported in the mainstream media.’ There is a good selection of high quality inventory of condos and homes. Tens of thousands of baby boomers will be added to the area over the next 25 years.”
The Sun Sentinel. “For the first time in 30 years, United Van Lines Inc. says it moved more people out of Florida than in, and analysts see that as a sign that consumers are looking elsewhere for a cheaper slice of life.”
“The nation’s largest moving company reported 16,212 inbound shipments to Florida last year and 17,019 outbound shipments.”
“The housing boom brought more people to the Sunshine State at the start of the decade, but the run-up in home values during the past five years sent property-tax rates soaring. Many residents now say they can’t afford to move elsewhere in Florida because of the huge hit they’d take on taxes.”
“What’s more, busy hurricane seasons in 2004 and 2005 led to massive rate hikes from the state’s largest home insurance companies. ‘It all just pushed us past the breaking point,’ David Levin, a Delray Beach-based housing consultant, said.”
“A couple of years ago, Paul Mount and his wife moved from Wellington (to) a log-cabin home on two acres near Chattanooga. In Wellington, their property taxes were $9,300 a year; their tax bill in Tennessee is $1,100.”
“‘We just got tired of it,’ said Mount. ‘Everything is financial. The state of Florida is just going crazy.’”
“As Floridians struggle with housing affordability and wages that have not kept pace with the cost of living, other states are aggressively trying to capture the Northeast migration that Florida once relied on for its growth, said Levin.”
“‘People move to where their well-being is going to be the greatest,’ said Grant Thrall, a professor of business geography at the University of Florida. ‘Many people find the urban-built environment of Florida totally disgusting.’”
“‘People move to where their well-being is going to be the greatest,’ said Grant Thrall, a professor of business geography at the University of Florida. ‘Many people find the urban-built environment of Florida totally disgusting.’
Where will they overdevelop next? Those in Upstate NY whining about the lack of growth should look to the Sunshine State to see its consequences.
“…should look to the Sunshine State to see its consequences.”
And after that, to the Golden State.
Then after that, how about a tour of some ghost tract home developments in the inland portion of the desert southwest?
I have never been to florida but the place seems like it could be the epicenter of the housing bust.
The golden state is so screwed.I see someone over on the malibu coast was desperate to get out of their house and burned down 5 houses includeing suzanne somers pad.I believe they are looking for an arsonist.They should examine the mortgage paperwork trail first.
YES. Like in 1929. It’s creepy how things almost never seem to change. Florida is the ideal place to start with a bust. A 1929 repeat in the making ? Very strange indeed.
I don’t think it’s whining. Lack of growth is a huge problem in upstate NY. They had to raise the sales tax to almost 10% in my hometown because there’s no money coming in from anything else. Ninety-five percent of the people I went to high school and college with had to move away to find decent jobs. The only business that’s growing is the indian casino, which pays no taxes, and takes money out of the pockets of those least able to afford it. If a business moves in and creates 5 new jobs, it makes the front page of the local newspaper.
I own and run a small hi-tech company in Central New York. Here’s who I pay for an employee (besides the employee themselves:
Midcare,
FICA
Unemplyment insurance
Disability
Social Security
Federal witholding
State Witholding
Health Insurance $13k/year!
However, I have an excellent engineering pool to choose from. It is what it is. Try finding decent engineers in Florida!
“Lack of growth is a huge problem in upstate NY. They had to raise the sales tax to almost 10% in my hometown because there’s no money coming in from anything else.”
That high a sales tax and New York also has an income tax? Well gee, maybe that’s the reason for no growth.
LOL.
Dig it. Reminds me of Maine state legislator Hannah Pingree telling me the reason why Maine has to have an 8-point-something percent income tax is because it’s a Poor State. I pointed out that a lot of rich people who spend their summers in Maine make a point of Not Residing in Maine because they come from PA where the state income tax is 3.0% flat.
there isn’t any growth because the state got built up, then costs got high so industry left and taxes had to go up because the tax base left. I bet upstate hasn’t seen population GROWTH in 30 years.
Exactly. States hoping for business growth need to take a look at Nevada. With low taxes, and minimal red tape, it’s just all around business friendly which makes it easy and a no brainer to start up or relocate your company. All of those high tax, bumbling beaurocratical states are just driving business and industry away.
Actually, many of us here are transplants from that part of the country. I was born in upstate New York, but my family moved away, never to return, when I was in elementary school. My memories are of endlessly cloudy days and snowdrifts up to my head.
I’m trying to visualize a reverse migration. It’s hard, no matter how difficult Florida gets.
Global warming, perhaps?
Actually yes.
I was thinking of places in the USA which would benefit from peak oil and global warming. Upstate has
the Erie canal to the seaway, filled with productive agriculture and ample irrigation, and it will not be as ******** cold.
As well as being close to major cities where powerful elite live.
Just published is a report that 2006 was cooler than 1998. Global warming is a myth.
Peak oil might be a myth, also. Both are just wishful thinking of environ-mentals that has turned into a religion.
Uh Mark… I’d do some more reading before you pronounce global warming a “myth”. gordo
Mark, I was just reading how “peak oil” might well be a myth and one that “Da Boyz” are happy to exploit. I did a google search on “oil NOT a fossil fuel”. Wow, what an eye opener.
As to global warming, it IS a fact. The reasons behind it, however, are not clear. Yes, man exacerbates the effects of naturally occurring phenomena, but something isn’t quite right about what we are “told” by “experts”. Yes, the atmosphere is heating up, no question. But I don’t buy Al Gore’s explanation.
Come visit Québec you moron to see how the climate has changed.
“Global warming is a myth. Peak oil might be a myth, also.”
Mark — Limbaugh’s is not a star to which you want to hitch your wagon…although I guess I don’t begrudge your reluctance to join the ‘reality-based community.’ It’s not the, uh, FUNNEST place to be…
Hey — if you’re reading this blog, there’s still hope fer you, little camper. Now, shake off that pesky confirmation bias and try this on:
http://tinyurl.com/y4g3k8
…And this MUST be true, Mark. Suzanne researched it!
Peak oil is a myth only if there is an inexhaustible supply of oil that can be produced at any arbitrary rate. Exactly 0% of credible geologists believe that to be the case.
A new report came out and said that the myth report was all wrong.
Mark, buddy, petroleum consists of buried plants transformed over millions of years by chemical reactions and stored in specific types of rock formations. There is a finite supply of it. Most of what remains is located in countries that hate us, have reason to exaggerate their reserves, need it for their own populations, or some combination of these things. Peak oil was predicted with respect to U.S. reserves, and it happened in the 1970s, forcing us to import most of our needs from that point forward.
Someday soon a daily car commute to and from some of these ridiculous exurbs will cost $40, and that is the day houses in those places become totally worthless unless we have had a magisterial technical breakthrough on the level of cold fusion. I’m not holding my breath.
Oh criminy - the peak oil/global warming is a “myth”…look, the only hard part about this whole debate is trying to figure out why it became such political fodder. I have to admit I don’t understand is why environmentalist movement has become so focused on the “saving the planet.” I think the movement would have much broader appeal and be more truthful if it focused on “saving the humans”.
The way I look at it, both Peak Oil and global warming have the potential to be good for the planet in general. Last time I checked there was much more life (quantity and diversity) at the topics and than at the poles. If you think about, burning oil actually returns millions of years of carbon back up to the planet’s surface in a way that makes it accessible to carbon based life.
The biggest unknown in my mind, however, is if a new warmer world will be conducive to human life. By altering our environment so dramatically we risk our own species. As long a critical mass of life stays in place, I think there’s a good chance the earth will march on. It’s us I’m not so sure about.
My PhD thesis was in atmospheric radiation. I’m a Republican largely opposed to environmentalists’ recommended interventions. Global warming is a fact and is probably mainly anthropogenic. The Al Gore movie is scientifically correct except for its so-called solutions. The world will warm up. Sea levels will rise. People will suffer a whole lot, and that will make it reasonable to intervene.
Most people are too dumb and blinded by short term self-interest to see anything clearly over the long term.
“Look Ma, gas done gotten cheaper again this week. That there Peak Oil must be another plot by the nasty tree-huggers.”
“I have to admit I don’t understand is why environmentalist movement has become so focused on the “saving the planet.” I think the movement would have much broader appeal and be more truthful if it focused on “saving the humans”.”
Actually, the radical fringe enviros would prefer to see at least 90% of the human population eliminated because that’s the only way to “save the planet.”
Any wonder that they have so little credibility?
*IF* global warming is occurring — IMHO the jury’s still out — then animals (including humans) are the predominant source of gases that would cause it. IOW, even if it is a problem there’s little that anyone can do about it. The Kyoto Accord’s a typically political ploy… all symbolism and no substance.
Regarding “Peak Oil”, we may already be there. Global production has plateaued at just over 84MBBD for the past year, while demand (currently at 83+MBBD) continues to grow.
Interesting read on global warming you sent us to. So we are to brace for El Nino in 2007, making it the warmest year in England since 1659? Ok, but just wondering what fossil fuel caused that hot year?
Isold, therein lies the rub. VERY good question. One thing I find interesting is that no one has made a link between the vicious and seemingly sudden speed up of global warming phenomena and the Middle East debacle, which are pretty much date coincident. If most people knew the really creepy and “innovative” weapons that were being used over there (DU, white phosporous, microwave flesh melters) maybe they’d think twice about what is really behind “global warming”. Oh and take a google at some of the babies being born in Afghanistan and Iraq. Makes thalidomide deformities look tame in comparison. These are beings who are experiencing “global warming” first hand. Oh yes, there IS global warming, no question. Fossil fuels causing it? BAH! But it demonstrates how embedded the propaganda is. All the “very best people” now believe it.
The globe has heated up and cooled at many points in its history due to various factors. Human intervention is undoubtably capable of influencing the change to some degree, but the forces inherent in the universe to change the climate are far more substantial than ours.
These cycles have been going on since long before our ability to influence the atmosphere and thus the attribution of the current trend to man made interference may be unknowable. Of course it makes good political theater & book selling to blame Dubya & the republicans for it.
Actually, the radical fringe enviros would prefer to see at least 90% of the human population eliminated because that’s the only way to “save the planet.”
Scary but true. I went on a date with a girl once (1 date) who was a vegan / “environmentalist” and she was totally insane. She thought 9/11 and the war in Iraq were good things because it could kill millions of people and that might actually help the planet.
Jackie
Agree completely. I lived near Syracuse for 25 years before moving 1500 miles South to Palm Beach County about 15 years ago. I wouldn’t even consider going back. My parents still live up there, and rent a place near Stuart in the winter. Every year they stay a little longer. They say that it’s not just that it’s much warmer, but there’s something going on all the time in Florida. That said, if I win the lottery we’re going to spend a few months in upstate NY during the Summer every year, it’s totally beautiful. Lake George would be nice.
Yeah, upstate NY is not whining (especially up,upstate NY.) It’s beautiful but it’s dead at the moment. I did a tour of Plattsburgh with my friends a few years ago - I couldn’t name one thing happening *now* of any note. Air Force base gone, most French Catholic culture is gone - just a dying industrial town.
With all the development pressures on VT, I remind myself that’s it’s better than the opposite problem which can be view right across the lake.
It’s odd how, on the internet, you can find ultra specific threads that apply directly to yourself.
I recently moved from Upstate NY to South Florida, and I’m hastily looking for the escape hatch. True, South florida is sunny, has the beach, and WAY more culture. But I’ll end up paying more taxes for a smaller home, with at least double the mortgage. That doesn’t even count insurance. Over a lifetime, the cost of living in South FL is just way too high. At least in Upstate NY, you could live in your 100K home on acerage, and make the four/five hour drive to New York City for a fun day.
So, I agree, “those in Upstate NY whining about lack of growth should look to the Sunshine state to see its consequences.” I’d also add that those in upstate NY don’t have an appreciation for the corrosive nature of wealth obsession that booming economies routinely have. In my years upstate, I can’t think of one conversation I ever had with people about their home’s value, for example.
As somewhat of an expert on this subject after spending about 1/2 my life in each place, if you want a lot of land and a house for $100K, upstate NY is about the only place you’re going to get that. I don’t know where you live down here, but if you’re renting in Miami, or Southwest Broward I wouldn’t like it either. Just because you don’t like that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t check out Jupiter, Stuart, the Space Coast, St. Augustine, and the West Coast of Florida. For example Jacksonville is about as different from Miami as upstate NY is from NYC. You might like it.
Well said!
Anyone have any suggestions- moved to Tampa from up north for a great job opportunity. My wife and I make over 250k a year with very stable jobs. Sold our 600k house in the summer of 2006 in two weeks at asking price. Since last summer we have been renting a 600k house from a flipper with no business trying to flip. The rental house has been comfortable, but now the flipper is telling us he has to sell because he is losing 2k a month in renting it to us. Our nine month lease will be up soon. Choices- rent another house from a slightly less deperate flipper for another 12 months (which means moving again which will cost 4k just to hire the packers and movers), or buy something. I’m convinced prices still have to fall in the area that we want to buy. Median now at price is 500k, down 2% from this time last year. Seems like everyone on this message board is all for renting, but for how long? When will the bottom hit in the most expensive areas of South Tampa? When is it a good time to buy?
I think common wisdom from the bloggers here would say buy new from a quality developer who offers rate buydowns and other financial incentives. Avoid non-financial incentives such as cars and upgrades. Be prepared to lose up to 20% in market value. If that does not fit your comfort zone, just rent for 1/2 to 2/3 the cost of buying.
IMHO don’t be in a hurry to buy. Look at taxes and insurance costs - major in your area. Get a great lease if you can, and revisit the decision in a year. Lease/option if reasonable, but don’t pay extra for the privilege. You obviously can afford to take a hit on your primary residence, based on income, but base your decision on the one lowest income. You’ll be fine!
-
I sold my NYC co-op in summer of ‘06 at the top of the market and moved to Tampa area & bought at super discount (at the time) from developer in gated community with nice amenties. I took substantial pay cut to telecommute from my former NYC job (I am valuable to them so they did a trial period & they liked the way it worked out) My wife and I make about 1/3rd of what you are pulling and live comfortably & our daughter loves her school & home. We have 2006 hurricane code built 2600 sq. ft under air home with 3 car garage on 1/4 acre that cost us 280K. Why do you need to be in a 500K + area in Tampa? There is North & east of Tampa city area to look at as well. Think about it.
no crashing ? I’ll tell my old man
1.1 mill list- bid 650K on a canal
Tens of thousands of baby boomers will be added to the area over the next 25 years.”
Someone needs to tell John Allen and all the other shmucks that keep chanting this, that even if its true we cant get the money from them until they show up. Florida appears to want to hand over its future growth to the carolinas and tennessee and they seem more than happy to oblige.
No way are those baby boomers going to Florida. They’re coming here. To Arizona.
That’s what the REIC and our government leaders say, so it HAS to be true…
FU man! Those are our boomers!
You can have ALL the boomers.
flatffplan,
What did your old man pay for his house, and how long ago did he buy it? Where is it? And how big is it (sq ft under air)?
‘It’s going to take some time to absorb the inventory levels in the residential market,’ Fishkind said. ‘Residential housing prices rise like rockets and drop like feathers.’
A feather dropped out of a high-flying airplane will slowly fall all the way to the ground.
Yes GS, I saw this actually happen one morning (around 1992) while I was laying naked on a sand dune in “Death Valley”.
Peyote buttons?
A feather dropped in the vacuum of no sales will plummet like a hammer.
“Overall, Fishkind said the Treasure Coast real estate market is still doing better than other parts of the county. ‘It’s not all crashing, we’re not seeing an overall market deterioration.’ Fishkind said.”
It’s all good! And a great time to buy…
But at the same time he also says the Treasure Coast isn’t going to make any positive strides until 2009. So take your time.
And if that’s “better than other parts of the county”, sounds to me like he’s predicting that those other parts WILL see a “market deterioration”.
It is hard to say which areas in Florida are going to fall hard, harder, or hardest. Speculation is everywhere. I follow this area carefully, however, and it is seriously overbuilt. Speculators cannot even find renters and prices have already dropped roughly 12 pct from the peak. No matter where you fall in the pain spectrum, however, it still hurts.
I know this area very well, it is crashing. Port St. Lucie basically runs on construction for its economy. This place will explode. Image Detroit’s reliance on the auto industry and multiply that several times, this is how reliant Port St. Lucie is on home construction.
It sounds like Port St. Lucie and San Diego face similar challenges.
I visited San Diego and finally I understand what so many posters meant when they talked about the shoddy construction. Stayed in a $500K+ house (small) and I think a mobile home is built better. The other thing I noticed is that more than 95% of the houses there all look the same. The same brown color, same tile roof. Whatever the faults of construction here in Florida, it seems to me to be a lot better than that SD stuff.
So what are some of the specific problems with new construction? I’m not in CA, but nevetheless, I’d like to know what to look out for and what to avoid. I was in Wesely Chapel (North of Tampa) back in Oct. and saw some newer Lennar homes that had sagging and cracking stucco above the garages. That seems pretty bad. Does it get worse than that?
For starters, this place had the paper-thin interior walls that past posters complained about. You can’t run water anywhere in the house without hearing it everywhere else. I thought “baseboard” was pretty standard — either the 2-3″ high type with stair-step cuts at the top, or fancier 5″ high that is either plain or includes round cuts. In the SD house, it was a 1″ strip of plain wood — just barely enough to cover/hide the space between the wallboard and the floor/pad. All of the plumbing fixtures were of the worst imaginable quality. I thought bathtubs were of a standard length, but this one was about a foot shorter than any others I recall. The garage did not have a finished ceiling — you just look up at trusses. This is a house of max. 1200 sq.ft. that had been selling for about $550,000.
I’m a lifelong Floridian and have never seen a house so cheaply built, in this state.
Lennar/US Home in florida is the biggest & worst here. You can definitely see brand new homes that look like a wet saggy box. If SD homes are worse than these, especially knowing how Chip knocks the new Fla . homes, then they must be pretty awful.
Explode? More like “implode”
Prices implode and people explode.
Buy now as the NAR’s 40 million dollar cheerleading campaign says it’s a good, but not great, time to buy. I know they really care about me haveing a home, aren’t they careing folks?
Those Sarasota ‘Time2Buy’ realtors make me sick. Soooo desperate for a sale they will say or do anything.
Trolling for GF’s.
Funny…just when banks are launching their ‘Time2Foreclose’ campaign.
Maybe the NAR needs to find that kid ellian gonzalez and make him their new cheerleader.Might get some sympathy buyers.
These are the foreclosure numbers for lee county,florida.
Oct 2005 57 Lis Pendens
Nov 2005 57 Lis Pendens
DEC 2005 66 Lis Pendens
12/01/06 thru 12/31/06 total of 327 Lis Pendens
01/01/07 till today 202 Lis Pendens
I just can’t escape the feeling those numbers are showing a trend.
I forgot to mention only 73 of those in december were on mortgages over 2 years old
Holy Crap! I thought the worst was behind us!?!
‘Time2Foreclose’ Damn I love it. Why don’t you put it on bumper stickers. Imagine the fun you could have driving around with that one in OC, SD, SF, LV and Florida.
Makes a nice handle, IMO.
I heard this one recently:
The Housing Bubble - It’s all over but the foreclosin’
thats hilarious!
They should have about the same effect as WIN (”Whip Inflation Now) buttons from the days of the Ford administration.
Speaking of which - when do we see the “Investors to Florida: Drop Dead” headline?
Today.
“Time2Buy “
How about “Time2Lie”
I can drive up and down the canals here and see houses that have languished for more than a year, (oddly, the listings don’t always reflect that, obviously just a mistake on the agents part I am sure) and the number of sales is so low I wonder how they can get comps, I thought sales had to be within a few months, and in some areas there have been only one or two sales, can anyone enlighten me?
If there haven’t been any recent sales in a particular subdivision they will just go cherry pick out further and then try some sort of estimate of value. It is very difficult to value in a falling market.One persons estimate could be way off from another ones.
“The ‘Time2Buy’ effort is the first large-scale marketing campaign in the association’s history, said Kathy Roberts, SAR’s chief executive. Expect to see Realtors wearing ‘Time2Buy’ buttons………..”
—————————————————————————-
Lordy.
These asshats are gonna drive their market into the ground.
After all those ARM’s begin to adjust this year and people in Sarasota begin to realize just how underwater that they are on their mortgages, I don’t think that “Time2Buy” buttons will be a very popular item.
I wonder how they have the nerve since the FAR’s own number show the area to have fallen more than any other metro in the state; 18%!
I wonder how they have the nerve since the FAR’s own number show the area to have fallen more than any other metro in the state; 18%!
To the SHT’s credit they do mention that this is the 5th best year ect.
Those buttons are going to fix everything…..remember Ford’s WIN buttons?
http://www.answers.com/topic/whip-inflation-now
Buttons are the answer…..ROFLMAO
What’s really funny is that those buttons today would be made by communist slaves in China and exported to America on a ship owned by a Russian Oligarch. It’s all related, it’s the Global economy.
I don’t think it is very smart for these realtors to identify themselves as such, particularly while their friends and neighbors lose their shirts. Moreover, claiming it is a gg ggg greeeaat time to buy is like rubbing salt in their friends and neighbors eyes. Some of these realtors are likely to get b!tched slapped or worse for wearing those buttons.
If I were a stockbroker, could I wear a Time2Buy USO button?
Time2Buy stocks? Time2Buy Ford
Time2Buy GM.
Then what if the stock tanks??? Am I liable or anything?
Time2wait
But I thought their campaign was “It’s a good time to buy or SELL real estate”………..buying or selling, it’s always a good time!
Ha!
Time2bail.
I like that one -too bad we can’t get eight letters on a car tag — TYM2BAIL.
Time2DoTime
Good one. LOL.
Good one. However, Its2Late.
Better.
Time2Runaway
‘I can tell you that sales have slowed in our area because of rising inventory’ How many times have we seen this statement recently? But it doesn’t make any sense. The causality is backwards. Inventories are rising because sales have slowed not the other way around.
Exactly what I was thinking. Rising inventories should help buyers find a suitable property, increasing sales volume, all else being equal. The fact that sales are continuing to drop off, even as more an more properties are hitting the market speaks to how bad this is likely to get.
Bingo !
Right. While I feel that inventories are high because so many were waiting for the top, sales have slowed because there’s absolutely no way to justify buying over renting at these prices, UNLESS home values go up 10% per year. Even the most bullish would doubt that’s going to happen. Sales have slowed because speculators stopped buying. Sales will slow further as lending standards tighten.
‘It was a near record year for the housing market in Orlando in 2006. Real estate agents said sellers have had fierce competition trying to attract buyers, WESH 2 News reported. Phyllis Holvey has been trying to sell her Maitland home for three months. ‘The market has been down, of course,’ Holvey said. ‘Everyone knows that.’
‘Even though many people believe their homes are top sellers and have made many different renovations to help speed up the selling process, Realtors said the problem could be the price. ‘Prices have been flat,’ Loveland said. ‘You need to look at the homes that are selling and price yourelf at about what they’re sold.’ Holvey said she agrees with Loveland and said she thinks that’s why it’s been so hard to sell her home. ‘I believe it was originally priced too high,’ she said.’
Lowered expectations?
The Sentinel’s hard copy yesterday had a disgustingly optimistic headline for the article, something akin to 2nd Best Year Ever! Should have saved it.
Flordia - “The nation’s largest moving company reported 16,212 inbound shipments to Florida last year and 17,019 outbound shipments.”
This is a lie …. I read last year that 1000 new folks were moving to Flordia every……sorry, that was a Realtor quote.
Yes, but they are not making any more of it you see.
The TRUTH about that often quoted line is this- 1000 people move TO Florida each day, but 400 people move OUT each day.
There is an artilce in http://www.sunsentinel.com about this very subject and they referenced the BLS on it. And I bet these statistics are not up to date,as the outgoing number has risen since 2006.
Last I saw, the number was down to like 820 people moving in day.
Last week I was at the Florida entry point, and the number was 807 - I counted them myself.
What’s an “exonomist” (description of Hank Fishkind)?
Someone who exorcises the cheerleader predictions of other economists, perhaps.
That would make me an exonomist…
Am ex-onomist?
David Lereah, inmate 0717616, of course!!!!
Also could be called “economyth.”
You mean e-CON-0-mists. Hire a “prostitute”. You still believe in folks like Easy Al and Helicopter Ben. Joe Bloe is more credible than most economists.
Someone should hire a taxonomist to take care of these economists.
Time2Buy
should be
Time2Cry
LOL. Doesn’t the Time2Buy buttons remind you of those buttons the waitress wears at coffe shops to try to get you to buy a piece of pie or the special of the week ? I guess the REIC does look for the impulse buying group . My guess is they expect people to ask them ,”why is it Time2Buy”, so realtors can go into their prepared speeches .
I remember I called up on a listing and just wanted a little information . The realtor didn’t answer my question but went into 20 minutes of hype without taking a breath . I could of hung up and the realtors wouldn’t of know it .
In all the years that I have been around ,I don’t think I have ever seen this level of desperation or a ad campaign like this regarding housing . Imagine the stock market agents wearing buttons saying the same thing .Realtors are like a bunch of drones these days .I wonder if it will be a requirement in a real estate office to wear the Time2Buy buttons? This is getting really strange .
I think it has reached a point that realtors can truely be called
‘cheerleaders drones ” rather than professionals anymore .
I have a question about FL RE. Does anyone really think the people who sold out at Briney Breazes will actually see the 510 million in 2009? Somehow I think this will fall through and they will have given up their homes for a fraction of what was promised.
I doubt it.The contract is probably full of loopholes and contigencies.The buyers will find something cheaper and then back out on the deal.
Pllease.. no way. I read in the local fishwrapper about the proposed buyout. What a joke. It has more holes than a screen door in a hurricane. Plus, the mega wealthy neghbors aren’t going to sit back and allow all of this new construction. One bunch of millionares is fighting the addition of a walkway being built.
If those people close that contract it would defy all business principals ever taught.
my guess would be no. the developer hasn’t even received approvals for the the 20-30 story condo tower he’s planning on building. i’ll bet the market implosion and the planning board will kabosh the deal.
If it was really “Time2buy” the market would be buying. If you need to have a massive ad campaign to convince the market that its “Time2buy” chances are — it ain’t time to buy.
But the realtor told me I had to buy now or be priced out forever! I remember it clearly! Now it’s Time2buy because there are too many homes on the market? Asking a realtor for advice is kind of like relying on your mentally challenged brother to take over the family business.
Notice how the spin game has gone from “no bubble” to “isolated bubble” and now to “not everyplace is a bubble.”
“All bubbles are local”
Verbal inflation.
I’m going to wear my Whip Inflation Now button. LOL
I want one that reads: WIN
“Want Inflation Now!”
Only thing that can kill the Housing Bug.
Sponsored by Monsanto
Actually the government whipped inflation a few years ago when it reconfigured the CPI and got everyone to pay attention to the “core” rather than the overall number.
‘Many people find the urban-built environment of Florida totally disgusting.’”
Yes, and I am one of them. Urban building used to be limited to the cities like Miami, Orlando and Jacksonville. St. Pete and Tampa not so much, sorta bush league in terms of building. But now, WOWEEE! And the urban building blight is spreading outward like a cancer, swallowing the open spaces and rural landscape. Disgusting, gross, whatever.
I am still debating whether Channelside will look nice, presuming of course that people actually occupy the finished and under-construction condominium units there. But I remember when Dale Mabry north of Van Dyke Road was pasture, except for the Cheval subdivision. The cows looked content.
I would describe my feelings on the development of northwest Hillsborough County as “discontent.” And Pasco–don’t even get me started.
Well, I dunno.
Is the aircraft carrier coming? I know they are trying to push all the ship repair and industrial operations out of the channel and over to East Bay, nearer me.
But, what I can’t figure is where are you going to go?
There ’s few shoppes, bars, a theater and a Hooters.
You could go to the aquarium, or get over-run by mobs going to the SPT Forum. Think that will be a nice home-coming event?
Other than that, no grocery stores………all “high end” shoppes on the strip, so no place to grab a sandwich or a burger. Just an empty space near Ybor.
What’s in Ybor? It used to be interesting……now it’s all low-lifes hanging in the streets trying to make the scene. I don’t go to either place much, though they are closer to me than Brandon which has a whole lot more to choose from.
Traffics a bit heavy, though. You could walk the empty streets of the Channelside district, but I don’t dig Hooters.
Hey, don’t pick on Pasco. Pasco county is beautiful! Nice farmlands everywhere. Sure, developers rushed up here, but that is over now. They aren’t even running out of land here. Not like Hillsborough & Pinellas & their overbuilt traffic nightmares. You could retire half the country here and not even push into Hernando.
I don’t disagree that there are some very bucolic parts of Pasco. My criticism was directed more to Land o’ Lakes and Wesley Chapel and other areas near the Hillsborough County line, where every house looks just like all the others.
I completely agree that Pinellas is an overbuilt traffic nightmare. I was driving on US 19 last year late at night, with all the road construction, and it felt like I was in a science-fiction film.
Another comment in Florida’s urban building: During the 1990s, when I lived in the Ft. Lauderdale/Miami area, I used to have to drive all over Miami doing work for architectural and government clients. There were vast areas of the city that had “depopulated” or turned into slums with many abandoned homes. You could tell that at one time, these were lovely neighborhoods with fairly spacious yards, nice vegetation and older Florida construction, both concrete, stucco and Dade County pine wood. Some of these areas had almost a “bombed out” appearance, but still you could tell that they were lovely at one time. It disgusts me to see all the sprawl, when these areas could be “renewed”. But “urban renewal” tends to get a bad name when the guvmint gets involved. The real “urban renewal” seems to come about when independent groups of people, like artists and other ecletic, bohemian types, move into blighted areas and restore them to their original charm, with a little updating. The Victoria Park section of Ft. Lauderdale had gone severely downhill during the 1970s and then artists “discovered” it and renewed it during the 1980s. Then the yuppies moved in and hiked the prices. So it goes. But perhaps there are such opportunities in all of this. Sometimes the money follows the artists.
Housing Predictor on Florida - not very pretty:
Florida
It’s been a market filled with all sorts of issues in Florida real estate, not the least of which is how lawmakers will straighten out the state’s crisis with homeowners insurance following 2004 and 2005 hurricanes.
Florida real estate boomed for years, but as the hurricanes came some Floridians fled only to be replaced by new residents in the Sunshine State. The Florida housing market has been one of the fastest growing real estate markets in the Nation and appreciation levels had been at record highs.
But the high levels of appreciation have given way to a new sort of buyers market, which is much slower than before. Florida has been transformed into a buyers market. The Sunshine State has the largest single second home market in the nation, which will help boost the long term market. The U.S. Census Bureau forecasts Florida, Texas and California to be home to 47% of the nation’s population by 2030.
Miami may be headed to be ground zero of the falling national real estate market with an over-abundance of condominiums, both preconstruction units and resale on the market for sale. Miami will experience a slow market through 2007 and Housing Predictor forecasts Miami will fall an average of 13.6% by year’s end.
In Tampa, where the median price is already down to $168,000 prices are beginning to show signs of stabilizing, and will average a drop of 4.8% in 2007. Tampa saw prices shoot up 30 percent in 2005.
Orlando is Florida’s home to Disneyworld and the world’s number 1 vacation destination. Real estate has slowed in Orlando as the market broke all time sales records and will end the year with an average lackluster loss of 5.7%. The median price for a home in Orlando is now $245,000.
The retirement community of Lakeland held Housing Predictor’s highest appreciation level for 2006 at 13.0%. But Lakeland lived out it’s hey days and is slowly winding down. The median price of a home in Lakeland is a modest $162,000, and it will finish 2007 just 2% behind last year’s prices, mainly due to an influx of new older residents, many of whom are complacent to hang around for a while.
Naples led the south-east in appreciation garnering a median price of $407,000, but real estate sales have ground to a halt in Naples and it will finish 2007 at a minus of 8.9% on average.
Palm Beach, recognized as the playground for the rich and famous, will complete 2007 with an average loss of 9.4% on a median price of $384,000. But Destin, one of the state’s top resort markets in the Florida panhandle, will only experience an average loss of 7.4% in 2007. Also in the panhandle, Panama City Beach with it’s over abundance of newly built condos will fall an estimated 10.3% in 2007.
Sarasota will record an average loss of 6.9%, and the state capitol of Tallahassee is forecast by Housing Predictor to complete 2007 with a lesser 5.2% loss on average.
http://www.housingpredictor.com/florida.html
Wes Chester? There’s a crappy new housing development here in NW Hogtown, FL with the same name. A couple of model homes and lots of scaped bare earth. I think they wanted to name it Westchester but misspelled it.
Hmmm. When they can’t get the name right, I’d be concerned about the roof collapsing and the basement flooding — in nice weather.
“In Tampa, where the median price is already down to $168,000 prices are beginning to show signs of stabilizing, and will average a drop of 4.8% in 2007. Tampa saw prices shoot up 30 percent in 2005.”
Just 4.8%? Possible, I suppose, but I really doubt it. I think the pull of gravity is greater than that.
What the Housing Predictor site did not seem to discuss at all are the coming effects of ARM re-sets and the significant drop in the cost of virtually all materials and labor for new-home construction. Because of that, I’m skeptical about their conclusions.
I tend to agree with you and I wish they’d publicize their methodology. Well at least I guess they know which WAY the prices are headed. They claim to be the fastest growing RE site. If they want to maintain this supposed growth, they’ll need to provide more explanations.
I spend significant blocks of time in Texas, Florida and Michigan. If 3 states are going to have 47% of the population by 2030 and Florida and Texas are included, looks like I’m going to have to stay in Michigan to avoid the traffic..there are two people moving out for each one moving in. Still, as much as a I hate traffic, I’m not sure it is worth the price, except maybe in the summer.
While real estate reports of solid losses come in regarding Florida ,the REIC in Florida kick off a campaign of “Time2Buy “.If one wanted to buy they would have to ignore the following :
(1) Prices are crashing
(2)Florida was a investor/sub-prime market , therefore it will crash more .
(3) Insurance and tax rates are off the charts .
(4) Hurricanes will hit with time .
(5) South Florida might slowly or quickly lose some land to the ocean .
(6)Construction is cheap and the builders overbuilt luxury condos at 300 a sq foot on up ,that were sold to flippers who are bagholders .The Baby boomers want to pay under 150 a sq foot .
(7) Low paying Jobs that will not likely increase in wage in the coming years ,while industry will not move in because of the recent price increases .
(8) It’s not fun to live in ghost town tracts .
(9) I’m sure there is more that would have to be ignored to conclude that it’s ” Time2Buy” .
This ad campaign is not fair , its false and misleading ,and I hope it fails .
The more I think about this ad campaign by the REIC the more angry I become .
The NAR/realtors have turned into a propaganda machine of investment advice that exceed their fuction to market houses .
In past cycles, real estate offices would advertise that they could market your house better etc., but saying “Time 2Buy ” is investment advice and exceeds the realtor function and it’s clearly a conflict of interest . I am surprised that the national or local ad campaigns have not been challenged by the media or lawyers . In fact ,the main media is repeating the campaign as if were market facts to rely on .
Realtors have no way of knowing if its ” Time2Buy “. Shouldn’t a disclaimer be put on the ads saying that buying now could result in financial loss . This spin is no different than the lies about ,”running out of land ,real estate always goes up ,buy now or be priced out forever ,the baby boomer are coming etc.”.
Based on excessive supply and overbuilding , foreclosures in the making and excess speculation purchases, this market is not a “Time 2Buy ” market but the exact opposite .
When I see polls that say that 65% of the people trust their realtors, than I see why the NAR/realtors think they can pull off this cheerleading dissemination of false information . The realtor Codes of Ethics discourage investment advice to induce buying or selling .
I plan on going to Vegas next month to gamble. The casinos here just fleece me. Hear it is different in Vegas… loose slots. My friends who went there all had a good time and either broke even or made money. It really is different there I am told. Should I buy my newbig screen television now on my credit card and pay it off with my winnings or wait and buy it after? There may not be any more available later. Which one is providing the greater return… vegas slots or vegas housing s-lots. A quick flip could means I could hit the Jackpot, and buy a hummer also . Which has the greatest return? I think I will rely on the trusted REAL ESTATE PROFFESSIONAL. Things are sure looking up for me right now!!!
If you were serious, they wouldn’t be calling you crazy for nothing….:)
CC, here’s another thing you won’t hear often it’s true but whatever you do - DO NOT tell ANYBODY. On some of the roulette wheels, ALL of the numbers are 7, so you shouldn’t bet on anything else. It’s a “no-brainer” and “in the bag”. In fact, “Las Vegas casinos are working off of totally new economic model…”
dd
Is that casino run by the US Federal Reserve Bank? What’s next, money actually growing on trees?