The Housing Bubble

The Journal Gazette reports from Indiana. “Media reports on the housing bubble made consumers cautious about buying new homes, said Jim Lancia, president of Lancia Homes. Job losses at companies such as Waterfield Mortgage Inc., which shed more than 600 employees when the company was sold, also hurt consumer confidence.”

“‘We just crashed in the new home market around here,’ said Ric Zehr, treasurer of the Home Builders Association of Fort Wayne.”

“The large number of houses on the market prevented Realtors from selling more houses, said (broker) Daniel Quintero. Buyers could pick and choose from among the substantial inventory, he said. Foreclosures added to the number of houses on the market.”

The Indystar. “The average price of existing homes sold in three of the nine metro counties, Hancock, Madison and Shelby, fell anywhere from 2.4 to 8.2 percent, according to a 2006 home sale report released Tuesday by an Indianapolis real estate company.”

“H. James Litten, president of F.C. Tucker’s residential division., said the cooling of the housing market last year was almost a given, following a record-setting 2005, when interest rates dipped into the 5 percent range. ‘We dug so deep in the buyer well,’ Litten said. ‘A lot of people who were capable of buying jumped in’ and bought a house, lured by the financial benefits, he said.”

The Dispatch from Ohio. “Developers and landowners have slammed the brakes on annexations in Franklin County. The number and size of annexations in 2006 were the smallest in at least 11 years, records show. Observers say they expect the trend to continue in 2007, as central Ohio’s economy and real-estate market head into another weak year.”

“‘I don’t see it improving,’ said Don Brosius, a lawyer who specializes in annexation cases. ‘It’s going to be a couple of years … because it’s going to be tough to dig out of this hole.’”

“Jim Hilz, director of the Building Industry Association of Central Ohio, said he isn’t surprised that the annexation pipeline is drying up. Homebuilders began seeing a buyer slowdown 18 months ago and it hasn’t stopped.”

“‘We’re experiencing a very difficult time. … It’s not just new-home sales. It’s existing-home sales as well. The inventory is extremely high,’ Hilz said.”

“Unsold homes aren’t the only inventory that’s high. Land that developers expected to need for house sites also is piling up. Dominion Homes and M/I Homes, the biggest builders in central Ohio, said in SEC filings late last year that they both are trying to sell millions of dollars worth of undeveloped land.”

“It’s quite a change from the region’s boom years. There was the 2001 rush, when more than 4,000 acres were annexed. It also was when the Hayden Run corridor, planned for thousands of new homes between Dublin and Hilliard, was annexed to Columbus.”

The Business Review from Michigan. “Area housing sales dropped 11 percent in 2006, data that shows the second consecutive year for a decline in Washtenaw County and the continued impact of what Realtors call a ‘buyer’s market.’”

“The year-end numbers from the Ann Arbor Area Board of Realtors show a 9.8 percent drop in house sales and a 16.5 percent decline in condo sales. Listings went up 7.6 percent for houses and 12.3 percent for condos. And median sales prices dropped for both, a $7,000 decline to $219,900 for houses and a $10,000 drop to $163,000 for condos.”

“Still, many areas, such as the city of Ann Arbor, held value and sellers hit the mark with listing prices. That, brokers said, may reflect how sellers had to adapt to the marketplace changes. ‘Sellers are quite realistic at this point,’ said (realtor) Dawn Foerg. ‘I think they’re going to be paid back for being realistic.’”

The Detroit News from Michigan. “More than 2,000 idle condominiums, apartments and single-family homes dot the city. Some projects are half-constructed, others are completed and vacant, and even more have yet to begin, while developers have stalled their plans, gone bankrupt, or are desperately trying to lure buyers with closeout prices.”

“‘We have to take a step back,’ said Chris Schultz, who operates a plumbing supply business in the city. ‘Drive down any street, and you’ll see models built. They need to stop approving new projects.’”

The Journal Sentinel from Wisconsin. “New-home sales hit a seven-year low in metro Milwaukee last year. Only 1,934 residential permits were issued in 2006, 600 fewer than any year this decade.”

“‘Right now, it’s slow. Real slow,’ said Mark Elstad, vice president of a West Allis water heater company that works with builders. ‘It started before the fall elections, and I thought it would be temporary. People are not spending, and I don’t really know why.’”

“Larry Gruber, COO of a small-scale custom builder, said the slump has been especially hard on production builders, who need high sales to contain costs. ‘Those guys are dealing. Their prices have come down 5 percent to 15 percent,’ Gruber said.”

“Matt Moroney, director of Metropolitan Builders Association of Greater Milwaukee, blamed the media for squelching more deals in an already difficult year. ‘There was a lot of fear out there for a long time because of all that talk about the housing bubble and whether it was a myth or reality,’ Moroney said. ‘There wasn’t a bubble, and we came to a soft landing.’”

“Metro Milwaukee’s existing home market shrunk in 2006. The four-county region registered 20,071 Realtor-brokered sales in 2006, the smallest volume in at least three years and 7.3% below 2005, Metro MLS reported.”

“‘So much for the housing bubble. We didn’t have a free fall. We had a soft landing,’ said MLS President Tammy Maddente.”

“Price drops were a way of life in 2006, said Dan Buttery, president of Argus Investments Inc. in Milwaukee. ‘Clearly, homes are sitting on the market much longer, with prices coming down after a quarter or six months. And still, they’re only getting tepid responses,’ he said.”

“While Buttery sees no upturn in sight, realty agents are optimistic about 2007. ‘Some markets, like parts of southern California and southern Florida, have had a hard landing,’ said Pete Flint, CEO of the San Francisco-based realty company Trulia.com. ‘But broadly, yes, it was a soft landing. And I’d definitely say we’re through the worst.’”

“To make a sale in 2006, however, ‘a lot of sellers were participating in financing or doing improvements,’ said Bill Berland, president of Milwaukee-based Homestead Realty Inc. Unofficial sales concessions, plus an influx into the resale market of pricey newly built homes that builders couldn’t sell direct to consumers as usual, may mean that what appears modest price appreciation was really just a plateau.”