“Prices Got Far Out Of Hand” In Florida
The Ledger reports from Florida. “Carissa and Jerry Saus are suffering a seller’s fate in a buyer’s market. Despite a price drop of $15,000, the couple’s home is still on the market after four months. But the home isn’t much different than its neighbors, said Carissa Saus. ‘Maybe that’s part of the problem.’”
“Brian Dockery, their Realtor in Lakeland, said lowering the price is becoming a necessity and the wait to sell a home is getting longer. Dockery has nearly given up on open houses and associate lunches, which once served as good marketing tools. ‘People just don’t come,’ he said. ‘There are too many out there to compete with.’”
“Only a handful of people came to the last several open houses he hosted, mainly for the free food, he said. And Realtors these days are on a tight budget.”
“Polk County’s active real estate listings in December outnumbered existing home sales 11 to 1. There were 4,215 listings for homes, condominiums and townhomes throughout the county last month. But in that time, only 362 sold, a 26 percent drop from 488 in December 2005.”
“‘With so many homes currently listed in Lakeland and in Polk County, sellers need to make their home stand out, and the most effective way of doing so is to reduce the price,’ said Realtor Justin Kranitz. ‘We’re at a stage in the market where buyers can choose to be very picky and choose not to purchase a home because of one minor thing they don’t like about the home.’”
“‘We had one couple who seemed pretty interested,’ Dockery said. ‘But one day I called them and they said they changed their mind and not to call anymore. I don’t know what changed.’”
“The inventories of builders are undercutting existing home sales and making it difficult for local Realtors and their clients. ‘It is really affecting resales in a negative way,’ said Judy Cleaves, a Realtor in Winter Haven. ‘It is causing the sellers to realize we are competing with new homes.’”
“New homes are being priced in the $150,000 range, a significant drop from asking prices a year ago. And incentives like $3,000 to $5,000 in closing costs plus free upgrades make selling even more difficult.”
“‘The prices got so far out of hand a year and a half ago,’ Cleaves said. ‘We’re just now getting a correction in resales. They still don’t quite believe it,’ Cleaves said of the need to lower prices. ‘It’s a good time to buy,’ she said. ‘We are ready to negotiate.’”
The News Journal. “Pensacola Realtor Sheree Domine’s specialty is working with first-time homebuyers. Since Hurricane Ivan, she has seen the average worker priced out of the Pensacola market.”
“Even the recent drop in home-sale prices has not scaled prices back to pre-Ivan days when Domine was the Realtor for a family who purchased a new 1,500-square-foot home in a subdivision off W Street for $125,000.”
“‘Those same houses are on the market for $170,000 now,’ Domine said. ‘They could not afford to buy that home now. And to top it off, we’ve got these insurance problems.’”
“The market woes have hurt Domine’s income. She has cut back on spending at restaurants and local stores. ‘It’s a snowball effect, and I don’t see it recovering anytime soon.’”
The Herald Tribune. “In April 2005, Erik and Kathryn Matthews contracted with Construction Compliance Inc. to build a $159,000 single-family home on a lot they own in Port Charlotte. ‘It’s been a nightmare since day one,’ Erik Matthews said.”
“Just this week, the Matthewses received four new ‘Notice to Homeowner’ letters for additional undetermined financial claims. The couple contacted their lender and were told that roughly $87,000 had been drawn down on their credit line by Construction Compliance Inc.”
“The trouble for the Matthewses and other customers of Construction Compliance comes against the backdrop of a struggling housing industry. The sizzling pace of sales in 2004-05 has slowed to a trickle, leaving even the biggest players in Southwest Florida offering huge incentives to move their product in the sluggish environment.”
“Carol Simmons, a broker who sold many of the North Port homes to be built by Construction Compliance, said…she was not in a ‘position to provide any specifics.’ Meanwhile, the company’s subcontractors are wondering when they are going to get paid.”
The Palm Beach Post. “Still debating which New Year’s resolution to keep through next week? Developers of two unbuilt West Palm Beach condo projects have their resolutions already lined up: We promise to give buyers back their deposits … soon.”
“During the past month, buyers in the Opera Place and Palladio Terrace high-rises slated for downtown West Palm Beach have been peppered with Dear Buyer letters from their Miami-based developers. The letters promise the return of buyers’ deposits now that these luxury condo towers aren’t going forward. Blame a lousy condo market and vaporized bank financing.”
“Buyers can’t wait to get those big checks back. Sadly, details on deposit returns at Palladio Terrace are a little vague. ‘The only thing missing is the how and the when, which is everything,’ one buyer groused.”
“Also missing: The amount of money being returned. Buyers in both projects had to put down 20 percent of the purchase price of their condos to hold their units. For some buyers, this amounted to around $100,000 or more.”
“But in both cases, not all 20 percent still remains in escrow. The escrow agents for both projects released 10 percent of the deposits to Opera Place’s BAP Development and Palladio Terrace’s Merco Group. Understandably, buyers of both projects are antsy about whether they’ll get all their money back.”
“It looks like Merco still is toying with the idea of building Palladio Terrace. So, anyone interested in taking Merco up on its offer? ‘They might find someone else crazy enough to, but it won’t be me!’ one buyer said.”
‘You’ve made the decision to get your home on the market. In today’s market, pricing your home fairly and competitively is even more critical. In fact, the right price is the key to attracting showing activity. It’s not enough to price your home competitively; you need to aggressively price it to stand out from the competition.’
‘As the Florida Legislature prepares to tackle insurance issues at a special session that begins Tuesday, millions of constituents are asking: How did Florida get into this mess? And is there a way out? The scope of the problem is staggering.’
‘What homeowner wouldn’t be ecstatic over a 25 percent cut in the property insurance bill? Probably the one whose premium just jumped by 200 percent. State lawmakers will consider proposals next week that could roll back property insurance rates from 25 percent to 40 percent.’
‘St. Petersburg Times: A lack of anticipated revenue takes a toll on the county’s spending plans. More than three months after approving the county’s 2007 budget, commissioners might have to tighten the purse strings in the wake of a housing market slump. ‘Permitting activity has fallen sharply,’ management and budget director Cathy Taylor wrote.’
‘That means impact fees and permits are pumping less money into county coffers than officials expected. And the gap between budgeted revenue and actual revenue in certain areas is ’significant,’ Taylor wrote. Taylor detailed the difference between budgeted and actual revenue for October, November and December. In those three months, the county planned for $800,000 in permit revenue to go to its building inspection fund. But the county received $494,710 - 62 percent of the expected amount.’
Note to Cathy Taylor: If your revenues are down, then so is the demand for the goods and services that were the spending targets of that revenue. If that is wrong, you need to be replaced. But if it is right, you need to suck it up, cut your budgets, staff and facilities accordingly and get on with life, just like we, the public, do when our incomes take a hit.
Living within your means…what a concept!
Oh là là. That would be unamerican. Watch out. Somebody will put you on the unamercan list.
American dream redux.
“On Tuesday, legislators begin a special session targeting Florida’s insurance crisis. A host of ideas are on the table, and Gov. Charlie Crist, who has accused the industry of “profiteering,” has said lawmakers must be ready to play rough.”
Interesting development, don’t you think?
How did FL get into this mess? Come on, I am a 29 year old guy; I have not lived through many RE cycles as an adult. I have no personal experience in RE except as a renter. And guess what? I knew what was going to happen! Because I have this wonderful ability to read and do research. The fact that our leaders, and all those involved in the industry have been “blindsided” by this downturn is; in a word, scary. Did you really think that 10X the median income was a reasonable place for housing to settle? Come on!
Oh yeah, this is the next mess we are going to watch unfold in FL. The local authorities depend heavily on the permitting/tax revenue from property. They have been spending like drunken sailors, and now they are caught, they have no more windfalls coming in, and they are not going to be getting them for a long time. Much like RE, local government in FL makes all the money through froth. When RE changes hands, the SOH exemption goes away, sometimes doubling/tripling the revenue from one property. If people stay put, the exemption stays with them, and the taxable value of their homes will never increase (well, never more then inflation). Govt does have the ability to adjust the millage rates though! So, watch out, especially those that bought in the past few years.
It really burns me when people say they could not see this coming. Come on! Its like an elephant sitting in the corner for the room; you didn’t NOTICE that prices were totally out of line with median incomes or rents?
S. FL is toast, I just have no other words for it. I have front row tickets (as does DAP) to watch this thing explode around me. It’s kind of like watching a war movie, somewhat painful to watch, but also very educational.
How did Florida get into this mess? Sheesh, you’d think people would get a clue that Florida politicians don’t work for them, they work for corporations, just like Federal government politicians. Charlie Crist is talking about making insurance companies that write auto also write homeowners. LMAO! Like it’s a new idea. That could have been done decades ago. But the problem was just ignored and ignored year after year until it is too late and trust me, there will NEVER be real insurance change in Florida, unless they can erect a bubble around the state to keep out hurricanes. Also the Florida politicians allowed the insurance companies to set up separate divisions for Florida.
But wait, there’s more. Wait until we start seeing the effects of all this crappy development in NORMAL Florida rainy season weather. Because new developments are causing flooding in areas that never had it before. People will be getting flooded out even after run of the mill thunderstorms. That’s already happening in Polk County/Lakeland, also parts of St. Pete and South Tampa and I’m sure other areas I haven’t heard about.
If it’s not profitable, insurance companies will leave and you guys will end up with Citizens for home and auto insurance. Be careful what you ask for….
“If it’s not profitable, insurance companies will leave”
Yep, that’s the threat that has been held over our heads since day one and everyone buys into it. Here’s the deal: I’m forced to have insurance for my car and for my home if I have a mortgage. Make that force go both ways and force insurance companies to provide it at a reasonable cost. Insurance is profitable. Actually, I’ve heard it reported recently that insurance companies are having record profits, despite the payouts. What’s wrong with this picture?
Wait a minute - you’re telling me that insurance companies AREN’T philanthropic organizations?
My illusions are shattered (sob).
Just when I start getting too serious and upset about all this, Sammy S. comes along and injects some levity into the situation and cracks me up! One of the best wits on this board. Thanks, Sammy!
Good point, the incompetence of local authorities is definitely ’scary’.
Message to Buyers:
There is an old expression in real estate,“There will always be a greater fool to come along and buy your house at a higher price”. The message to buyers is, don’t be the greater fool. Let’s wake up Broward County! Take a step back, look at the big picture and start making wiser real estate decisions.
Unless your household income has doubled or tripled in the last five years, affording a home in Broward County has become very difficult. You can fool yourself into thinking you can take on a huge mortgage by using various financial tricks, but the main thing is affording that monthly financial commitment. If your income and budget cannot provide you with enough money to cover your mortgage payment, taxes, insurance and association fees each month, then you cannot realistically afford a home. As a rule, pay no more than 2 to 3 times your gross annual income. Any more than that and you run the risk of eventually becoming financially strained and possibly losing your home. A home is place to be happy and enjoy your family. Yet millions of Americans have put themselves into debt prison. Do not bid on overpriced properties! Sellers need time to realize that their prices are too high. Bottom line is pay no more then 7 to 10 times fair market annual rent. Also, get educated by searching the online tax records (www.bcpa.net ) and find out the sales history of a home even before looking at the asking price.
In summary, wait until prices come back down to earth before buying. Please do not believe the lie that renting is throwing your money away. We all have to live somewhere, right? However, if you add up the monthly cost of a mortgage, taxes, insurance and association fees, right now renting is at least 50% cheaper than buying. Owning a home should be everyone’s goal, but don’t rush in. Hang on a few years, save your money, watch the prices come down and then make a purchase that makes long-term financial sense.
AMEN!! I have been preaching that do deaf ears for three years. If you try and argue logic with most people, they view you as a “hater.”
On my site, I have a simple rent vs. buy calculator. Living in South Florida, I cannot drink the Kool Aid and buy when it is 50% cheaper to rent. But my friends and co workers call me the fool.
It would run me a minimum >/b> of twice the $4000 a month to buy a “decent” house here. WHY would I do that when I can rent for about 1/2? Does anyone in their right mind actually believe prices are going to go back up 20% a year for the next 5 years to justify this gap? Please….
We have a four year supply of houses in South Florida. FOUR YEARS . I don’t care if they are pulling listings or relisting old ones, or all of the other gimmicks to play with the numbers, the market is dead. In March the Homestead exemption for all of the snowbirds goes away. The insurance situation is a mess. Taxes are skyrocketing. Houses that are asking $2200 for rent are listed at $550,000 for sale. That is 250 x rent or about 7 x income.
My guidelines are 120 x rent and 3x income.
Someone explain to me why I should by until the numbers come down to mine?
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I wonder how many of those Palm Beach condo buyers were already bragging to their friends about how much profit they made. Not only will there be no profit, they can also kiss their deposits goodbye!
Unlike the discussions we heard at cocktail parties about how great people were doing in real estate, you hear nothing now. I hear absolutely zero in general discussion about real estate. It simply never comes up and when I bring it up I get these glassy eyed puppy dog looks and people begin to ease away. Of course I have been discussing this all along as a nasty situation. Mind you I am not being a jerk but rather trying to get a pulse.
A friend who is a general contractor was running and ad for framers and he got 3 legal size pages of calls. Last year he got 3 names total on the same ad.
Unlike the discussions we heard at cocktail parties about how great people were doing in real estate, you hear nothing now. I hear absolutely zero in general discussion about real estate.
That’s not entirely true. Just the other day my cronies and I were sitting on the curb outside an open house, munching on free finger foods and passing the paper bag that held the bottle, and lamenting the fact that for some reason, nobody seemed to be showing up at the open house behind us. That led us to ruminate on the disturbing and selfish trend toward cutting back on the quality and quantity of food available at open houses. So you see, some of us are, in fact, discussing the trends in real estate.
I don’t know, Sammy, I noticed a coffee cart outside an open house in LA recently.
If you would’ve gotten there a few minutes before me and my cronies, you would’ve seen a food cart, too…can you say, “Gone in sixty seconds”?
Sammy — LOL.
I feel bad for the people whose deposits are disappearing. That really sucks big time. Anyone else think violence could possibly be a side effect of this housing bust?
Although, I have to say, I hope the American people learn a good lesson from all of this about trusting businesses. Knowing what I know about builder/developers, I’d never hand over a deposit to someone in Florida to build a home unless I had ironclad control over the money.
And now add to this the hordes of people who will find their homes deteriorating over the next five years. Add those repair and remediation costs to the skyrocketing insurance, taxes and in some cases, ARM resets.
Wasn’t there an article a few months ago about a builder who returned the deposits, but they got sued by the buyers because they also wanted the “profits” that they would get if the condo building was built. They don’t know how lucky they were to even just get their deposit back.
Also I’ve been hearing a lot about people who are waking away from 50k deposits instead of closing because the prices have fallen a lot more than that. This reminds me of stock options, you put in 50k to control 500k, and it’s awesome if it goes up, but an absolute killer if it goes down! Everybody knows that stock options are risky, it just amazes me how these people thought that buying preconstruction condos didn’t carry any risk.
Palmetto — maybe too late in the day for you to read this — I am leaning 80-20 toward building a house, rather than buying an existing one. I don’t know anything useful about construction, so I plan to hire an expert retired inspector, who doesn’t particularly hate the builder, as an equivalent of a “quantity surveyor.” Will post more on this soon, as I want to fish for advice.
Chip, just checking back and I see your post, funny, I was thinking about you and your plans to build. I’m not against all builders. Somewhere out there are decent builders and since you won’t be building during the boom, you’ll have a decent chance of finding one. Try to find an “old codger” where you can maybe see some of the stuff he built like ten years ago.
Good advice, re the old codger. And we’ll have more in common.
“One of the most important pieces of advice I give my sellers is to try to view their property as a “product” for sale. It is critical to take “emotions” out of the negotiations, for example, taking an offer that is lower than you expected as an insult.”
I’m sure this is exactly what she was saying during the mania. She was probably saying, “we better come in with an offer over asking price so we don’t insult them.” I bet she used the “priced out forever” line a million times.
I was curious so I looked up Susan Borgida on Google. This next set of lines comes directly from her website.
“As a former senior executive and consultant for major healthcare corporations and an expert in strategic planning and development, Borgida brings exceptional professional insight to every client’s real estate transaction. In fact, when you blend Susan’s energy and drive with her extensive business expertise bolstered by her M.B.A., you get Professionalism In Action. If you’re thinking of buying or selling a home in Naples or the surrounding areas, let Susan Borgida help you. Call her today!”
She needed an MBA to drive people around to houses and lie to them? Check out her website. It will make you want to puke. I still can’t figure out how pictures of this “professional” working out at the gym or playing golf have anything to do with real estate. Her listings still seem way over-priced to me. But go check them out and notice that anything that doesn’t have a “new” or “sold” label has a price marked down arrow next to it.
I think it would be fun to email her and question her about today’s self-serving article.
She is a woman of action, with boundless energy!
This is a great example of behaviour seen in all financial manias - and I’m not talking about her sales pitch. This woman has an MBA, and worked for major health corporations? Classic.
When people leave good jobs in promising industries to, say, day trade stocks, or become real estate agents, you had better think about selling those asset classes!
MBA Mega Big A$$hole.
The deadline for realtors in Naples to pay the Association dues was December 15th. Of the 4,800 members, 2,500 (40%) DID NOT renew.
The realtors association has now taken the unprecedented action to extend the deadline to later this month.
Evidently, the association is hopeful Santa was good to the realtors and stashed an extra $300 in their stockings this Christmas.
Oops. Change that to “of the 5,800 members, 2,500 did not renew”.
In Palm Beach County, there were app. 12,000 realtors in 2006, and 11,389 total MLS transactions for the year.
“They still don’t quite believe it,’ Cleaves said of the need to lower prices. ‘It’s a good time to buy,’ she said. ‘We are ready to negotiate.’”
Without a doubt prices are going to fall at least 20-25 pct in Florida, possibly 25-35 pct, and maybe even 35-45 pct over the next 3 years.
On top of what they’ve already fallen.
The articles complaining about insurance are the ones that irritate me. Just because people don’t want to shovel snow doesn’t mean everybody else should subsidize their lifestyle.
Hurricanes are very real and can devastate vast areas as we’ve seen. If people want to live where they occur then they need to pay the price and quit whining. Blizzards and tornadoes are minor inconveniences next to a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. The people in Florida need to realize that they’ve made a conscious decision to live in the mouth of the hurricane and they can pay for that risk. The guy in Iowa and Nebraska should not have to pay so Billy Baby Boomer or Long Island Larry can have a condo on a white sand beach.
Similar to federally subsidized flood insurance, I predict the residents within the hurricane prone region are going to demand ‘disaster insurance’ and get it either through a regional compact or federally sponsored legislation. The insurance industry knows it is coming; as a result, they are getting while the getting is good.
It appears that they are already ‘demanding’ a bailout through their votes. They can elect a governor to stamp his feet, but it won’t change the facts. Prices are too high and the overbuilding on the water is uninsurable. If Lloyds won’t do it, nothing an elected person can do will change that.
You have to wonder; if prices hadn’t exploded, and the resultant building boom hadn’t occurred, would Florida be in this insurance mess?
People in North and Inland Florida also vote. What will their deligations say at these legisaltive meetings? How much love is there to share with coastal residents when it means higher insurance bills?
One thing that would be nice is if the insurance companies were required to provide normal electrical, fire, and flood without the “wind coverage”. As I understand the coverages are always bundled and it is impossible to get the “usual” insurance without wind coverage. This is what pisses me off. If anyone knows differently please advise.
Great point, Mozo. People living in the coastal regions have a tendency to dump on the inland and northern parts of Florida as being low class. Oh, but they sure want those areas to subsidize their waterfront homes.
“…if prices hadn’t exploded, and the resultant building boom hadn’t occurred, would Florida be in this insurance mess?”
I’ve often wondered that, too. If prices in an area doubled (above the value of the land), then the premium doubled if the structure is inured to replacement. That, aside form any change in storm risk. What’s tricky is the cost of construction relative to the selling prices in a neighborhood.
Florida’s Native Americans had the right idea. Build chickee huts. If they blow away, so what? Move and build another.
“You have to wonder; if prices hadn’t exploded, and the resultant building boom hadn’t occurred, would Florida be in this insurance mess?”
Yes! It was inevitable. Rates were already increasing. Katrina put the kibosh on homeowner’s hopes of keeping rates down.
Keep in mind the rate hikes are not limited to Florida. You recently posted a thread where insurance prices were also increasing along the Carolina coasts. Also, don’t forget what is playing out in the courts in MS, LA, and AL — Insurers don’t want to pay and jurors are siding with their neighbors.
Lastly, what if we had another Katrina? How much would insurance cost then? A lot of homeowners and ‘businesses’ are balking at today’s prices. Imagine the revolt if prices doubled one more time.
p’cola-
As long as your home is paid for, you can buy insurance al la carte. That is, homeowners separate from wind, separate from flood. That’s what I do. Yesterday, I got my new homeowners bill (no wind or flood coverage) and it increased about 80% over last year. Why? It’s gotta be insurance companies spreading increased storm exposure across the risk band. I say this because my coverage limits remained unchanged. I’ll ask my company on Tuesday (I actually like my insurance company), but I’m pretty sure this may be a way for them mitigate the huge risk associated with Florida coverage.
RJ are you in Florida? That would be great news as I was under the impression it was all or nothing in Florida regardless if your home was paid for or not.
Amen!
NYC,
I very much agree, even though I live about 1M from the ocean in Palm Beach Gardens and would have a whopping insurance bill (if I was not being subsidized by my wonderful landlord). Making others pay for my decsion to live in a hurricane zone is, imho, not only wrong, but should also be criminal. Guess what, if you just let this market move on its own, the problem will solve itself. As insurance costs go higher, home prices will drop, so that the monthly costs are managable to the people who want to live there. It’s very, very simple. If we put in all these artifical methods trying to keep insurance costs at bay the needed correction will never come, and we will always have this market where those in earlier benefit the most.
Will people get priced out of their homes? Yup. And then they can sell it and move somewhere where insurnace is not as burdensome. Is that the governments problem? Nope, not imho. Housing prices double/tripled down here in 4 years. Govt did nothing to stop it, and many, many buyers were totally closed out of the market. I fail to see how propping up insurnace (and, therefore, indirectly, propping up home prices) is in anyone’s best interest.
As long as they are playing “fair” (ins companies), and not gouging (which is debatable), I don’t think that government should get involved at all. You have the benefit of living on the sandy beach 365 days a year; why should you be subsidized to do that by people who live in an igloo it’s so cold!
Unfortunately, government is filled with mindless drones. They look to see who has the most money in their fist before they take a stand. The homeowner lobby has deep pockets. That is what scares me. These elected officials believe only in the capitalism that places dollars in their election coffers.
Amen Mike. Housing prices just need to drop to reflect the increased costs of maintaining a house in Florida. That’s it. Game over. Tough titties.
But the insurance companies are gouging . If a person gets a low down loan they have to insure for the amount of the loan rather than the real replacement cost of the house .Land ,(which has become very expensive these days ),doesn’t burn or isn’t subjected to damage usually yet thousands of people are paying excess insurance costs to insure their land .
Building costs are also coming down and replacement costs are alot lower than the costs being charged by insurance companies .
While I can understand that the insurance needs to be higher in costal regions subject to direct hits from hurricanes ,alot of people miles off the coast got their insurance raised also .
I argue that replacement costs are alot lower because of the land value being high so insurance costs are higher than needed .
“But the insurance companies are gouging” .
Absolutely, Housing Wizard. I hate to make a sweeping generality, but this is part of the corporate zeitgeist of the times, put your hands on the nuts of the people and squeeze. But before the corporations and Wall Street Boyz can do that, they need the politicians to pull down the pants of the people.
I agree with you Wiz that the portion of the purchase price which should be allocated to land should not require insurance and that insurance companies are gouging but it doesn’t change my point that housing prices need to drop to reflect the higher maintenance costs of Florida housing.
If the majority of buyers require insurance because of the terms of their mortgages then the lower price will accrue to the benefit of all cash buyers as it should. There should be some benefit/advantage for a person who has saved and has real money to buy a house.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2499663,00.html
Considering that artic ice will be gone by 2040, and by association much of the Greenland ice cover…how permanent is Florida land supposed to be??? All you Florida land owners should be making relocation plans immediately. Better start doing some basic homework.
Wiz and Popper — pls. remind me soon to tell you about insurance and diamonds. I’m at the CRS age, unfortunately.
“Tough titties.”
Exactly, Popper. I’m old enuf to recall the days of the Red Buttons “Come On Down to Silver Springs Shores” and Weekie Wachee Mermaids commercials they used to have on the TV stations up in New York during the winters. Now, maybe we can get Pam Anderson to shill Florida. Tough titties indeed.
Last summer I took the kids to Silver Springs on our way to visit a sister in Orlando. On the way into Silver Springs/Ocala I noticed my childhood favorite “Six Gun Territory” had evolved into “Six Gun Mall” or something to the effect. A pity.
That’s the game. There was a special on 20/20 a couple months ago about the Federal flood Ins. They showed areas where the Govt. covered it,and there were houses right up to fence line where they were covered( 250k per house).They showed the rebuilds after Ivan ,and built right back where they were destroyed. They interviewed one owner who was a lawyer in Ca. who wanted to get rebuilt before the next hurricane season….gotta rebuild quick so I can cash in before it’s destoyed next year I guess.
used to be there was nothing but 800sq. ft. bungalows, now there’s 4000sq.ft. wave catchers….
40% in a walk!
“There were 4,215 listings for homes, condominiums and townhomes throughout the county last month. But in that time, only 362 sold”
A year of inventory! Oh well, I’m sure a horde of baby boomers will all move to FLA this spring and clear this up. Soon, we will return to our permenant prosperity. This market will never slow down, or pop. The gains are permenant.
Nope, they are coming to Palm Beach to clean up the 4-5 years of inventory we have on the market here. Sorry, all other areas will just have to wait until they have fixed our mess!
time2buy campaign is going to turn this whole thing around. And Kendra Todd can talk the bubble back. Its in the bag.
I’m a boomer, and FL was on the potential retirement list since I have relatives living there. It’s now been removed indefinitely.
“We had one couple who seemed pretty interested,’ Dockery said. ‘But one day I called them and they said they changed their mind and not to call anymore. I don’t know what changed.’”
You forgot to tell them about all those cute squirrels they’d be feeding.
“You forgot to tell them about all those cute squirrels they’d be feeding.”
I think you meant to write “eating” and not “feeding”.
“I think you meant to write “eating” and not “feeding”.
LMAO!!! ROTFL!!
“Only a handful of people came to the last several open houses he hosted, mainly for the free food, he said. And Realtors these days are on a tight budget.”
I guess we know now that Sammy S. went to FL for a visit
“Even the recent drop in home-sale prices has not scaled prices back to pre-Ivan days when Domine was the Realtor for a family who purchased a new 1,500-square-foot home in a subdivision off W Street for $125,000.”
“‘Those same houses are on the market for $170,000 now,’ Domine said. ‘They could not afford to buy that home now. And to top it off, we’ve got these insurance problems.’”
You couldn’t pay me to live on or off of W Street but the jest of the “affordable housing problem” article is that there is a “realtor is starving problem”.
I found this when looking back for another old post:
‘South Florida, he said, is working off of a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past’. Ron Shuffield, president of Esslinger-Wooten-Maxwell Realtors, predicted.”
“‘I just don’t think we have what it takes to prick the bubble’, said Diane C. Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial. ‘I don’t think prices are going to fall, and I don’t think they’re even going to be flat’.”
“It just seems like everyone is doing it,” Laurie Romano, a 26-year-old self-described real estate investor, said with a giggle.”
“Perhaps the most troubling similarity, some analysts say, is the claim that the rules have somehow changed. In an echo of the New Economy investors’ blase attitude toward unprofitable companies, the growing ranks of real estate investors are buying houses they never expect to be able to rent at a profit. Instead, they think the prices of houses will just keep rising.”
“Holly Peterson, who is writing a novel about the idiosyncrasies of New York’s rich, said that..she frequently hears complaints about high home prices, followed by claims of quick profits. ‘They always hit you with their last jab: ‘Of course my money’s doubled three times over since I got married,’ ” she said.
“Five years ago, she said, friends at parties were crowing about “making millions of dollars on paper with $25,000 and $50,000 investments.” But “most of those people,” she added, “got wiped out.’
‘South Florida, he said, is working off of a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past’. Ron Shuffield, president of Esslinger-Wooten-Maxwell Realtors, predicted.”
I was trying to recall this quote the other day in a thread where Mike was discussing the manipulations of “Da Boyz” of Wall Street. We like to laugh at this quote, but in a sad, bitter way, I think there is some truth to it, in that the economic system is so gamed and manipulated.
“Who wants to be a paper millionnaire.” Now that would be a nice concept for a FOX-ck TV!
Now we know where all the potential buyers are . Buyers are tied up with deposits in projects that will never be built . How can the people not get their deposits back if the buider isn’t going to build ,or build in a timely manner ? How long can the builder hold even 10% of the deposits without producing ? A builder could make alot of money in interest on these deposits just stalling . I think we are going to see that the purchase contracts were one-sided in favor of the builder during the mania .
As if S. FL needed another problem;
Now, maybe the sherriff is angling for more funds, but still, this is Palm Beach County we are talking about!
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/localnews/content/local_news/epaper/2007/01/14/m1a_CRIME_0114.html
“PBC’s spike in violent crime recalls Miami of ’70s, ’80s”
“Today, Palm Beach County Sheriff Ric Bradshaw says we are on the cusp of becoming another Miami. The gang names have changed — we’ve got the Top 6, MS-13, San Castle Soldiers — and their guns are better at killing.
But, on a smaller scale, the terror is the same: 101 murders last year with gangs related to 55 percent to 75 percent of all violent crimes in the county, according to a countywide violent crimes task force.
And maybe the scariest thing is that it’s not just gangs.
Brazen random acts of violence — daylight carjackings, unprovoked beatings, cat-calls that turn into kidnappings and rapes — leave law officials, criminologists and sociologists speechless, beyond the same old excuses to explain what’s happening.”
There’s a county in Georgia — think thomas is part of the name, but not sure — that a few years ago passed an ordinance that requires (without specific penalty) that all residents have a firearm in their home. violent crime there dropped to zero and probably has remained there ever since.
Elimination, by well-aimed buckshot, of violent criminals goes a long way toward reducing violent crime, of which the criminals were the cause. It also saves the taxpayers a bucket of money.
As if S. FL needed another problem;
Now, maybe the sherriff is angling for more funds, but still, this is Palm Beach County we are talking about!
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/localnews/content/local_news/epaper/2007/01/14/m1a_CRIME_0114.html
“PBC’s spike in violent crime recalls Miami of ’70s, ’80s”
“Today, Palm Beach County Sheriff Ric Bradshaw says we are on the cusp of becoming another Miami. The gang names have changed — we’ve got the Top 6, MS-13, San Castle Soldiers — and their guns are better at killing.
But, on a smaller scale, the terror is the same: 101 murders last year with gangs related to 55 percent to 75 percent of all violent crimes in the county, according to a countywide violent crimes task force.
And maybe the scariest thing is that it’s not just gangs.
Brazen random acts of violence — daylight carjackings, unprovoked beatings, cat-calls that turn into kidnappings and rapes — leave law officials, criminologists and sociologists speechless, beyond the same old excuses to explain what’s happening.”
“Extreme violence has become so common that murders no longer are guaranteed front-page news.
Some Christmas Eve shoppers at the Boynton mall continued standing in checkout lines having their purchases rung up even as shots rang out and police chased down a killer in their midst.”
North GA, the “third world” influence is spreading north from Miami. Of course, police departments actually love this sort of thing. They don’t handle the problem and then blackmail taxpayers by saying they need more money to do their jobs. More crime = more money for police. Personally, I think they should get less and less money the worse crime becomes and more money based on less crime and violence. That’s what they are paid to do.
Wait until the flash kidnappings start (where ordinary citizens are abducted on the street and forced to go from ATM to ATM until their bank accounts are emptied), like they have in Brazil.
The answer is #4 buckshot. Forget the tree-huggers — use lead shot. It’s not like you’re doing this daily.
{Comment by P’cola Poppercomment-367684
2007-01-14 06:54:36
One thing that would be nice is if the insurance companies were required to provide normal electrical, fire, and flood without the “wind coverage”. As I understand the coverages are always bundled and it is impossible to get the “usual” insurance without wind coverage. This is what pisses me off. If anyone knows differently please advise.}
Your correct, I tried to do exactly that, but was told no Wind, no coverage. So I cancel everything.
Now what pisses me off is the government getting involved. There can only be one solution when this happens and that is general tax funds will go to subsidize insurance. I understand that already last year about 700M of tax dollars went to Citizens insurance. Plus there is a Citizens insurance surcharge on all insurance bills. They wanted $240 from me. So just ask yourself the question, why in the world would our government require the general population to subsidize some of the richest landowners in the state?
Now ask yourself who buys tickets to the $1000 a plate fundraiser dinners to help elect our politicians. Enough said about that.
The government at all levels here in Fl. want to see the explosive growth continue. It fills their coffers and makes a lot of people rich. If the politicians really represented all the people they would limit growth to ensure our infrastructure was growing at the same rate as new housing development. They would also put impact fees at a rate high enough to pay for new schools, roads, sewers, water, etc. But no, in most cases they steal money from the current tax base as the revenue increases due to the increase in the existing home values. Well, we may be at an end to this game now that home values are heading south. So what do you think they’ll try to do now? My guess is that they will be in complete denial and try to raise the Mill rate rather than scale down their spending.
My guess is that you are absolutely correct.
People all think that SOH is going to protect them from this action; guess what, it won’t. The mill rate will go higher, one way or another. There are so many different taxing “systems”; if they can’t raise your prop tax, they will raise your water bill, or your bill for SFWMD, or put impact fees per year for the privilege of living there… And so on.
People who feel protected by SOH. Guess what, your not, you will be taxed, and you will pay, just as you would have if the law had never been passed. Oh, and guess what? You can’t sell your home either, because the poor schmuck who might want to buy it will need to be able to not only afford the crazy asking price, but also the 2-3X taxes they will be paying.
Ahh yes, its all coming to a head.
FLORIDA-FYI there is already a tax revolution underway with several groups. There are almost daily rallys with huge turnouts. The legislature is well aware of a some serious issues with the voters, this among many.
There is a special session of the legislature convening tomorrow to consider a rollback of insurance rates.
The reality is we have an outmigration of people. There won’t be the need to supply as many services in the future. Truth is school enrollment is dropping, water consumption will drop as well as all other needs as people leave.Hooray!
We have a huge group of retirees who lust to turn the bastards out and they will rally for $10 savings a year. We may see a complete turnover of politicians if things get worse, unless we get some more of those dang hanging chads.
“We may see a complete turnover of politicians…”
I would just about be willing to cash in all my chips to see that happen, and to be able to leave a letter to my grandchildren describing my satisfaction therefrom.
How could they be building so many new homes when there is was such a shortage of land? I would have thought that they ran out of land already.
No, no, no Jerry. They are going to run out of land next week. That’s why you MUST buy today. The shortage of land will sustatin higher prices forever. But don’t worry, as long as you buy today, and don’t insult the seller with a low ball offer, you will be fine!
I started to look for a house to rent in the San Fernando Valley area of LA. Found essentially what I expected, i.e. for about $2000 a month I can rent a house that was for sale for 500K-600K. I found for sale flyers in several of the houses, most of them had such a forlon look.A lot of houses porclaimed completely remodeled(Flippers). Some people even advertised as For Sale /Rent. People were very very nice, willing to negotiate, I mean I have never negotiated on Rent before, but this time Rent came down 10% as soon as we said we might be interested.
1. Don’t rent a for sale/for rent place, if possible. The owner likely will be trying to sell it while you are in it, which will make you miserable.
2. Check the background or finances of your potential landlord. Low-asset flippers are the kiss of death. Better to pay a bit more and rent from a professional landlord/investor or at least from someone with known/verifiable deep pockets.
Yep, I heard it got so bad a couple years ago that Florida setup a factory in China to manufacturer more land since it was running out so fast. Good thing Nixon went to China long ago!
Nice concept. I am sure the duo Paulson/Rubin will float your hot CON-cept at Golman Sachs. “South Sea bubble land Corp.”