The Housing Bubble

Back in the saddle again…

Took a look over at the other Brand X housing bubble sites, and I like it here much more~

are you back?

test…

Ben -

Congratulations on getting back. I know its frustrating getting around tech problems like that.

Glad your back. I need my fix today.

O.K. Ben, you’ve turned my “A Second Day…into “A Fourth Day”

I was thinking it was that last post I made last night…had visions of Bloggers chasing me with 20# trout’s all night.

Put the computer on Defragment and opened a bottle of single malt scotch.

Ben —

Congratulations on your quick return. I have to confess that I did more real work than usual today. And I am certain REIC propagandists enjoyed the short-lived opportunity to freely promulgate the BS in the absence of this blog’s free instantaneous bubble-poppin’ reality check services.

For instance:
————————————————————————————————–
Builders look for 2007 housing recovery
By John Spence, MarketWatch
Last Update: 3:01 PM ET Jan 18, 2007

BOSTON (MarketWatch) — Homebuyers have been backing out of sales contracts and forfeiting their down payments during the housing slowdown, but cancellation rates should steady in the first quarter and taper off later in 2007, said the chief executive of one of the nation’s largest home builders Thursday.

“Cancellations are likely to stabilize and stay level this quarter, and then decrease,” said Ara Hovnanian during a Web cast of a real estate conference sponsored by Deutsche Bank in New York, adding cancellations should get back to “normalcy in a quarter or two.”

http://tinyurl.com/2b5tdk

I cheered when I heard this story on the radio today. Go Ben!
———————————————————————————————–
THE FED
‘Calm before the storm’ in federal deficit
Bernanke urges early, meaningful action to tackle deficit
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last Update: 3:04 PM ET Jan 18, 2007

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Warning of serious consequences to the U.S. economy if plans are not put in place to pay for the government’s future spending obligations, Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke urged Congress on Thursday to take “early and meaningful” action to put the budget on a sustainable path.

Referring to official forecasts that project the budget deficit to moderate over the next few years, Bernanke said this was simply “the calm before the storm” for the deficit.

A surge in tax receipts pushed the deficit down to $248 billion in fiscal 2006 — the smallest gap in four years. See full story.

But Bernanke said this number presented a misleading picture because it doesn’t capture long-term government obligations. Spending on entitlement programs, such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, will begin to climb quickly over the next decade as baby boomers retire, likely leading to rising budget deficits and record levels of federal debt, he told the Senate Budget Committee.

http://tinyurl.com/2gbkp6

SD Zip milestone announcement:

“Your search has returned the first 200 of 17001 homes”

We just heard a few days back from some Realtwhore that SD inventory had supposedly dipped to somewhere in the 14K range over the holidays. Is my subtraction off, or does this mean that inventory went up by over 1000 a week so far? Whoa, nellie, barricade the door!

Earth to Wall Street cargo cult:
Lower rates are not “in the bag” (and the Fed cares more about the dollar’s reserve currency status than keeping your party going…)
——————————————————————————————-
Stocks fall on uncertainty over interest rates after strong economic data
By Madlen Read
ASSOCIATED PRESS
2:24 p.m. January 18, 2007

NEW YORK – Wall Street retreated Thursday, falling amid vanishing hopes for an interest rate cut and an unimpressive forecast from Apple Inc. that muted investors’ enthusiasm for technology stocks.

Government data released Thursday indicated slowly rising prices for consumers, as well as a surprising plunge in jobless claims to an 11-month low and a ramp-up in housing construction. The reports pointed to an economy that’s more resilient than the market had thought, leading more investors to lower their expectations for a rate cut. A cut could boost consumer spending by making debt less cumbersome and help companies pull in higher profits.

“People have been focusing so much on the weak housing market, but it doesn’t look like it’s spilling at all into the rest of the economy. This expansion is going to go on,” said Brian Gendreau, investment strategist for ING Investment Management. “The market has been pricing in a rate cut. It’s still in there, but with a lot less conviction than before.”

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20070118-1424-wallstreet.html

Ahem…
————————————————————————————————
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac still have huge financial problems, regulator says
By Marcy Gordon
ASSOCIATED PRESS
2:30 p.m. January 18, 2007

WASHINGTON – Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have made progress toward correcting financial weaknesses, but tight government supervision is needed as the mortgage giants emerge from accounting scandals, a federal regulator said Thursday.

James B. Lockhart, director of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, also disclosed that Fannie Mae, which just last month announced a restatement of $6.3 billion in profit for 2001 through mid-2004, had a loss in the third quarter of 2006. He did not specify the amount of the loss.

“They unfortunately have very, very large problems,” Lockhart said in a meeting with reporters, referring to the government-sponsored companies that are the two biggest financiers in the $8 trillion home-mortgage market in the United States. “They have a long way to go; there are still significant worries.”

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20070118-1430-mortgagegiants.html

Buy now or get priced out forever, because rents always go up, right? (Ya gotta love a REIC firm which calls itself RealFacts.) Next time I rent, I will insist the landlord writes up the lease to require him to feed the squirrels.
————————————————————————————————-
Report: S.D. rent may stop going up
Drop in occupancies cited in prediction
By Emmet Pierce
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
January 18, 2007

A slight decline in occupancy among large apartment complexes over the past quarter may slow the trend of rising rents in San Diego County, according to the research firm RealFacts.

“Usually when occupancies go down, rents follow,” said Chris Bates, a spokesman for the Novato-based company. “San Diego (occupancy) is now at 94.4 percent. That is still pretty solid, but it allows some room for tenants. They have some choice, and if it goes down much more, landlords are going to have to give concessions or decrease rents to keep their communities full.”

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20070118-9999-1b18rent.html

test. sorry.

testing again.

sorry.