“Kind Of A Reality Check” In California
The San Francisco Chronicle reports from California. “The slump in the Bay Area housing market continued in December. The number of homes sold in December fell almost 20 percent from a year ago. The drop extends a streak of monthly sales decreases dating back to April 2005. ‘I still think we’re nearer the beginning or the middle of a longer correction,’ said Stephen Levy, director of Palo Alto’s Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy.”
“While many in the real estate industry say that the downturn in the housing market is over, economist Chrostopher Thornberg disagrees. ‘I’m hearing all this nonsense about a soft landing and rebounding in 2007, and that’s just incorrect,’ he said. ‘It just doesn’t work that way — housing cycles when they pop take years to clear out of the system, not months.’”
“In Santa Clara County, the median price of resale detached houses that sold last month was $710,000, 1.4 percent higher than a year earlier, but down from $734,500 in November. The median house price in the county also hit its high last year in June, at $770,000.”
Inside Bay Area. “The number of homes in some stage of foreclosure in December continued to rise in the Bay Area compared with a year ago. In Alameda County, 720 homes were in foreclosure, almost four times the number of a year ago. In Contra Costa County, 461 homes were in foreclosure, or three times the number from a year ago. In San Joaquin County, 460 homes were in foreclosure, more than three times the number from a year ago, the report said.”
“Earl Rozran, a Realtor (in) Pleasanton, said some properties in the East Bay have been on the market for six months. ‘Some sellers have refused to make any price concessions at all,’ he said. ‘Yet they are surprised when there is very little showing activity or offers.’”
The Sacramento Bee. “Two months ago Mark Aizenberg and his wife fell in love with the 2,400-square-foot Arden Hills home and watched the price tumble from $745,000 to $699,000, then to $624,000. The Aizenbergs offered $575,000. Then came a $600,000 counteroffer. ‘We said $585,000 and they said ‘Yes,’ says Aizenberg.”
“Median sales prices were down 16.9 percent in Placer County from December 2005. Yolo County reported prices down 14.1 percent. Sacramento County prices were down 7 percent. DataQuick attributed much of the year-over-year declines to huge discounts offered by new home builders eager to clear inventory before year’s end. Price cuts from $30,000 to $100,000 were not uncommon as 2006 ended.”
“Analysts say rents have been held down by continuing oversupply of rental units after years of new apartment construction. Add to it the growing number of single-family homes now available to rent. ‘A lot of people can’t sell their homes, and they put them on the (rental) market,’ said Bruce Mills, owner of Sacramento-based M&M Properties, a rental manager.”
“Sales of apartment complexes and smaller units have slowed alongside the 2005-2006 slump in other housing. ‘There are twice as many projects on the market now as last year, and they’re staying on longer,’ said Bruce Hester, a regional apartment broker. ‘The market has definitely softened. The escrows are off 40 (percent) to 45 percent.’”
The Bakersfield California, “Home sales in Kern County were down 30 percent in December from the same month a year earlier, while foreclosures increased 37 percent during the same period, according to reports.”
“The number of notices of default in the Bakersfield area has increased from 33 in December 2005 to 179 in November and 243 last month, appraiser Gary Crabtree said. He said notices of trustee sales are also up considerably.”
“‘What we are seeing is the direct result of the creative financing that has been put in place over the last three years by lenders,’ Crabtree said. ‘If we see a big spike in foreclosures, that’s going to add more supply to the market.’”
“There were 3,181 listings on the market in Bakersfield last month, up 53 percent from December 2005, Crabtree said.”
KABC Los Angeles. “Some Southern California landlords are lowering asking rents and offering move-in incentives, while vacancy rates are rising,- all signs the market may be softening, it was reported Thursday.”
“‘There’s a point at which you push beyond where people can afford the price and you run into resistance,’ John Husing, consultant in Riverside told The Times. ‘In supply and demand terms, the sign that the price has gotten too high is when you start seeing vacancies go up in the rental market, and inventories go up in the housing market.’”
The Voice of San Diego. “The condo-conversion phenomenon in El Cajon came in a flash. The general housing slowdown of 2006 didn’t leave El Cajon untouched. Last year, the council approved only about half as many projects , 641 units, as it had in 2005. And many of the projects that started building when real estate was sizzling finished construction just as the market had cooled.”
“‘We’re saturated,’ said local real estate agent Carol Carey, who’s been selling mostly new construction in El Cajon for 20 years and now sells condo conversions. ‘In El Cajon and across the county, we had a ‘feeding frenzy’ — eventually we ended up with a glut,’ said Jim Taylor, a member of the former condo-conversion oversight committee. ‘I don’t think anyone really realized it’d be as popular as it was.’”
The Pasadena Star. “California gained 723,000 jobs and built 851,000 homes from 2000 to 2005, a ratio of 0.8 jobs created for each homebuilding permit issued, said Esmael Adibi, at Chapman University.”
“The long-term ratio of jobs to homes from 1980 to 2000 is 1.7, he said. ‘We built too much for the job growth,’ he said.”
The Desert Sun. “Desert Hot Springs Councilwoman Mary Stephens said it’s somewhat discouraging to see the slowdown in home sales, but she sees an upside. ‘I’m almost thinking, ‘Well, maybe it’s kind of a reality check,’ Stephens said. ‘The (home) prices were getting so out of whack it would probably take three of my kids to buy a house.’”
The Pasadena Star. “California gained 723,000 jobs and built 851,000 homes from 2000 to 2005, a ratio of 0.8 jobs created for each homebuilding permit issued, said Esmael Adibi, at Chapman University.”
“The long-term ratio of jobs to homes from 1980 to 2000 is 1.7, he said. ‘We built too much for the job growth,’ he said.”
——–
Encouraging to see the jobs to homes built ratio less than 1 over 2000-2005 (and it’s almost assuredly the same for 2006 maybe even 2007).
I think this data would support the “overshoot on the downside” theory that suggests we’ll see prices below what they were in 2000, before this mess really got started.
Just wait until we see that ratio once real estate employment reverts to its historic share of the labor force…
Great point
Don’t you mean reverts below its historic share?
Overbuilding in the past must lead to “underbuilding” in the future to compensate, even assuming demand remained stable. Of course, demand is not stable, it’s dropping like a rock (and the builders just keep building).
IMO, all REIC jobs created since the boom — plus another 20% or more — are toast.
“Don’t you mean reverts below its historic share?”
Well, yes, though I always tend to shade my opinions in favor of the bulls, as I realize I am a pessimist by nature…
That’s funny… I’m an optimist by nature. No kidding.
I have a different theory. The jobs to home ratio is still 1.7 in fact but 0.9 of the 1.7 is an illegal from south of the border.
popper …good theory. But you may be a little low.
I have a theory, the jobs numbers are a complete US Govt. FABRICATION.
the housing industry has been selling 35% to 50% less homes, selling with great discounts and writing off millions in land values.
But of course the Unemployment and job growth keep on trucking!
Since 3/4ths of the employment recovery growth was housing, WHEN WILL WE EVER see the impact of 2006 housing market sales..?
Are we to sit here and believe that these builders just keep building while selling 50% less with NO LABOR ADJUSTMENTS.
The D. O. L. is a Wall Streeet SCHILL.!!!!
I don’t understand this. Can someone explain in better details. It looks like to me we created less jobs in 2005 and more prior. I must be looking at this wrong
It simply means that we built more houses than people that needed them. California’s gained jobs / built houses (.8) was smaller than normal (1.7), therefore either fewer jobs were created or more homes were built.
What do you mean “either”?
Good point.
I love this stat. This combined with news of declining rents is the start of the downturn.
Slow train wreck… we’re some where between denial and fear. Until we march past desperation and panic into Capitualation I’ll just sit in the bleachers spectating. I’ll probably buy before the price bottom (gotta love the selection then…) but I’ll wait for prices to drop.
If prices don’t drop… I know my employer will pull out of the state. (Heck, it might anyway…) Cest la vie.
Got popcorn?
Neil
where have you seen stories of declining rents?
Would love to see this stat for Oregon and Washington.
and Nevada, Arizona…
ah yes NV & AZ lands of R.E. gridlock.
Prices remain high and so does the unsold inventory!!
And nowadays you need TWO incomes to afford a house payment, so even the 1.7 figure feels too low.
good point
Nowadays you need two homes in order to extract enough equity with cashout refinancing to support over consuming lifestyole
By the way, if that number is correct (1.7) then for the last five years California built enough extra housing for the next five years. Just tell the framers to go home.
“‘I still think we’re nearer the beginning or the middle of a longer correction,’ said Stephen Levy, director of Palo Alto’s Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy.”
“While many in the real estate industry say that the downturn in the housing market is over, economist Chrostopher Thornberg disagrees. ‘I’m hearing all this nonsense about a soft landing and rebounding in 2007, and that’s just incorrect,’ he said. ‘It just doesn’t work that way — housing cycles when they pop take years to clear out of the system, not months.’”
*********
I say:
“And Thornburg takes Levy down with a jab and quick right… it’s all over folks, the countdown is over - it’s Thornburg in a TKO!!”
Courtesy of http://www.dictionary.com
“technical knockout
n. Abbr. TKO
A victory in boxing, with immediate termination of the match, awarded by the referee when it appears that one fighter is too badly injured to continue.”
*****
Also, I apologize to Chris for the fact that I’ve spelled his last name above wrong, again (probably).
Also, from the above mentioned Chronicle article:
“The average rent for a one-bedroom apartment in the Bay Area jumped 9 percent to $1,271 in the fourth quarter from $1,167 a year earlier, according to RealFacts, a Novato research firm. Silicon Valley cities such as Mountain View and Palo Alto saw some of the biggest rent increases.
In San Francisco, rents rose 8.5 percent to $1,879 for a one-bedroom apartment. RealFacts bases its data on buildings with 50 or more apartments, which excludes many units in cities like San Francisco, where almost 40 percent of the rental buildings have fewer than five units.”
*******
Do any of those calling for the end of the “housing slump” realize that it would take years of 10% rent increases for “fundamentals” to return, including a spendy premium of some kind for ownership?
An example would be that here in SF… the traditional mortgage situation, before taxes or condo fees or what have you, would likely cost the average “$1,879/month one bedroom renter” somewhere in the neighborhood of $3,000 a month?
So maybe, “best case” for bulls, nominal house prices really will essentially be flat for five or six years and rents will rise 10% every year over that same period (probably what the Fed wants).
Whatever the case, it appears to me that we certainly have a way to go to get there.
The rental increases are the basis of the housing component of the CPI. This would mean a much higher CPI and higher FED interest rates.
Yes - good point.
Though I should add that I’m talking locally, where perhaps in SF rents could rise more than nationwide (the idea that rents will go lower nationally because of all the empty housing units).
There are a lot of condos going up in the City, but I don’t think anyone is ready yet to call it “overbuilding” - to the point where excess capacity could lead to rent decreases.
If that makes sense…
Rents are more tied to income. With the coming wave of Boomer retirees, does San Fran have sufficient numbers of well paid employees to fill one bedrooms at greater than $1800/month? I don’t know the median income ’round those parts - I do have some San Fran friends, but they tend to rent houses and share.
Retirees and young couples can be comfortable in one-bedrooms, and two or more college age students can hack it for awhile; but I don’t know many 30-somethings who like rent-splitting while someone sleeps on the couch, and I doubt there are lots of 30-something singles who are making so much that $1800/mo. isn’t steep. Although, as I said, I don’t know the median income in San Fran. Could be very high; could be like NY, where there are a lot of rich people from elsewhere or companies owning/renting apartments.
Families don’t tend to stay in one-bedrooms for long; so you’re sort of constrained to a smaller demographic. I don’t imagine 10% increases per year are sustainable for many years, unless the economy just soars ahead and inflation/wages as well. There’s only so much housing blood that can be squeezed out of a stone, and rents reflect that better than real estate in the short term, I think.
I agree, rents are tied to income.
But I think that in places like SF (with a constrained development environment because of wacky NIMBY policies, among other issues) there’s also a greater supply/demand component.
Incomes around here in the past year didn’t jump that much. But rents jumped in SF in 2006 because more people decided to rent vs. becoming homebuyers, as compared to earlier years.
So while income is an issue, like anywhere, I think actual supply (or lack of it) plays a greater role here, and probably in some other places, too. And conversely, in “speculator heaven” areas, some described in other posts here, rents are already falling (perhaps in time before income losses).
“Though I should add that I’m talking locally, where perhaps in SF rents could rise more than nationwide (the idea that rents will go lower nationally because of all the empty housing units).”
SF Jack — Luckily for Bay Area renters, rent controls are prevalent. You have to love it when rent-controlled apartments (which, of course, were supposed to help low-income folks afford to continue living in one of the world’s most expensive cities) fall into the hands of wealthy semi-permanent tenants, who can’t afford to buy in SF (because it is so cheap for them to rent a subsidized apartment!).
Maybe some day the Bay Area will finally catch on to the failure of communism; even China may be ahead of them at this point…
I live in the Bay Area (Peninsula). There is no rent control where I live. It is not as pervasive as you think.
And it’s a bit ironic, isn’t it, that places like Berkeley (a city, as I understand it, WITH rent control), is so close to the heart of capitalism, being Sand Hill Road?
I’ve loved listening to Thornberg’s presentations. Forget the snipits the meadia prints… He likes to ramble a bit like all economists. You really need to listen to his entire presentation.
I still love his quote “Orange county is different, its going to get hammered.”
Got popcorn?
Neil
Neil posts ” I still love his quote “Orange county is different, its going to get hammered.” ”
If OC gets Hammered, what do they call the IE? Stalingrad?
Stalingrad?
Rotfl
It will be a wasteland.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Am I missing something here? Levy says the correction is just beginning and it’s going to be a long one. Thornberg is saying we have years until this plays out. Aren’t they both housing bears? And aren’t they beating up Lereah, Watts, et al.? I know the way Ben cut and pasted it looks like Chris is disagreeing with Levy - just not so if you read the whole article. Levy is and has been a bear. He’s on our side folks! (As is Thornberg which I have argued here numerous times.)
“While many in the real estate industry say that the downturn in the housing market is over, economist Chrostopher Thornberg disagrees. ‘I’m hearing all this nonsense about a soft landing and rebounding in 2007, and that’s just incorrect,’ he said. ‘It just doesn’t work that way — housing cycles when they pop take years to clear out of the system, not months.’”
Boy does that have a familiar ring. I am not sure how many times I have said this very thing in my comments here. It is nice to finally have someone the MSM is willing to quote speaking frankly.
Any astute investor will know that the larger and longer the up cycle, the larger and longer the down cycle. Doesn’t matter what the REIC says, this is the way markets work. Just like the tech bust didn’t end in one year, this RE downturn will take a few more years. Too bad Joe6pack doesn’t know this.
I don’t think it even takes an “astute investor” to realize this.
Barring some outlier type one-time event(s) - it just takes some common sense.
Common sense…a rare commodity, but essential to have if one is to succeed as an investor. The media in toto needs a BS-sifting sieve like this blog. A friend of mine had an extra issue of “Money” magazine lying around and I leafed through it two days ago. Inside was an article about - what else - money management and featured case studies of several people. One was a young couple that had a huge pile of debt…yadada…now here’s where it got interesting. The wife supposedly had a net worth in the low six figures but a big part of that net worth consisted of a condominium in Fort Lauderdale and the “worth” of that condo was something like a quarter of a million. Anyone reading this blog knows that FLauderdale, esp. its condo market is cratering right now due to enormous inventory (and their insurance premiums) and yet, this so-called journalist described the price of that condo as though she could get that absolute, unmalleable price on the open market.
So much is not mentioned in what is between the lines in all these articles… Money, Kiplinger’s are the peons and shills of the advertisers within.
I have allways appreciated your insightful comments. Thx.
“The drop extends a streak of monthly sales decreases dating back to April 2005. ‘I still think we’re nearer the beginning or the middle of a longer correction,’ said Stephen Levy, director of Palo Alto’s Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy.”
So the correction started in April 2005 (21 months back by my count) and we are nearer the beginning or the middle? Let’s make the heroic optimistic assumption that we are in the exact middle. That means the soft landing won’t come until October 2008, at earliest?
“Some Southern California landlords are lowering asking rents and offering move-in incentives, while vacancy rates are rising,- all signs the market may be softening, it was reported Thursday.”
All also signs the market values may be falling, especially if you subtract the value of incentives off the purchase price of new homes.
So I’m not the only one who noticed rents falling! I thought I was going crazy for the last few months when not only the koolaid drinkers, but the bubbleheads were saying that rents were rising. Rents are falling in Southern California. Anyone who is foolish enough to spend more than 35% of their income on housing has been sold a bill of goods already and anybody with common sense is looking to be transferred to a state with a reasonable lifestyle on one income. I predict this will go on for another year or two, until we approach 50,000 or so foreclosures in CA.
I’ve been tracking prices of 6-8 unit buildings in LA for two years now and prices of those (based purely on economics and not emotion) have begun falling rapidly now. There is a major recession in the works.
Exactly what happened in 1990-1995. Investors - get ready to ante up your chips. Some deals are coming soon, like in a few more years.
I have to agree with everything. Rents are going down. Me and my fiancee are getting ready to move in together. When we started off, it was $X,XXX a month for a two bedroom we liked. Now its 95% of the same amount for a three bedroom townhome (single floor too, view, etc.) . Yes, two bedrooms have dropped, but not as much as three bedrooms… interesting. I think we could happily wait it out in a 3 bedroom townhouse with rent 1/4 the cost of what we would buy (we would buy 500 ft^2 bigger to grow into it… but you get the idea.)
2007? Just a start. Have of the GF’s will rent the place out for a year and relist in 2008. Hence, why I’m waiting until fall of 2008. (The won’t delist until they see the futility of listing in thsi flood of inventory.) Besides, by Fall of 2008, you will have the REO’s coming to market that were sent into foreclosure by the flood of foreclosures at the end of 2006.
Isn’t being able to do math grand?
Oh, I wish that we could hold out longer before renting… but sometime in the next 60 days we must move (due to leases expiring). Oh well…
Got popcorn?
Neil
IMHO, you are correct with fall of ‘08 being the soonest one should consider buying.
Very important to allow enough time to pass for all the current FBs to fall through the cracks.
“Isn’t being able to do math grand?”
Yes. But better yet, one does not need to have studied math at Berkeley or Stanford — a solid high school math education is enough, together with a good crap detector, a nose for common sense and a willingness to use a calculator to check your hunches.
“‘In El Cajon and across the county, we had a ‘feeding frenzy’ — eventually we ended up with a glut,’ said Jim Taylor, a member of the former condo-conversion oversight committee. ‘I don’t think anyone really realized it’d be as popular as it was.’”
If there is a glut, wouldn’t that signify that “it” was a bit too unpopular to buy an apartment gussied up with granite counter tops to look like a luxury condo?
“In El Cajon and across the county, we had a ‘feeding frenzy’ — eventually we ended up with a glut..”
No more like a barnyard orgy,and now people are starting to get itches in uncomfortable places.
Lie down with dogs….
“In El Cajon and across the county, we had a ‘feeding frenzy’ — eventually we ended up with a glut..”
I think I would get kicked out of El Cajon for having too many teeth. What a dump.
The just built condos in San Diego (Escondido) caught fire and burned them all to the ground yesterday:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/northcounty/20070119-0935-bn19fire.html
Anyone know if the buyers were protected even through they never lived in them yet? Do people normally buy insurance on places still being built. Who is the bag holder here, the buyers or the construction companies insurance company?
Well I guess thats one way to clear extra inventory.
It would seem to be common sense that since the builder can’t deliver the homes, the buyers are off the hook.
Not when the builder declares BK, and waits for the insurance settlement. Hope those deposits are in some escrow account, because if the builder doesn’t release them, then its leagl time, and the lawyers will take most of the deposit. S*** Out of Luck, is my opionion to the buyers.
I thought the poster meant on the hook for the whole enchilada; I agree their deposits could be in jeopardy in certain instances.
Typically the developer has Builder’s Risk insurance that would cover most damage (including fire) to the property during construction. (Different policies will cover different things - so some may cover earthquake and windstorm damage, while others may exclude these; but they all cover fire). With condos, many projects have either on OCIP (owner controlled insurance policy) or CCIP (contractor controlled insurance policy), that are typically referred to as a wrap policy (they wrap up several types of insurance, such as commercial general liability, auto, professional liability, and builder’s risk).
So, as long as the condos were still being built (e.g., no certificate of occupancy issued), then the Builder’s Risk insurance or wrap policy would cover the damage (it would provide proceeds for the contractor to repair and replace the damage work).
And, yes, almost all projects have some type of Builder’s Risk or wrap policy - the lenders insist on it.
You beat me to the description of BRIC and are accurate.
And if the fly by nite builder goes BK? How long does it take our esteemed insurance companies to ante up? If the money goes directly to the builder, what is his obligation to the buyers after he gets the money? Still say, it’s Legal Time!
“Two months ago Mark Aizenberg and his wife fell in love with the 2,400-square-foot Arden Hills home and watched the price tumble from $745,000 to $699,000, then to $624,000. The Aizenbergs offered $575,000. Then came a $600,000 counteroffer. ‘We said $585,000 and they said ‘Yes,’ says Aizenberg.”
Sorry Aizenbergs. You still overpaid. You didn’t consider the run-up at all. While it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck. It ain’t a duck.
BayQT~
Sounds like Mrs Aizenberg wears the pants in this family. My $0.02 is plain and simple, buy what appreciates>/b> and rent what deperciates
bold off
Out, damn bold.
I need to vent…
The tide really does seem to be turning, but it is still so painfully slow. I invested in more education over the last few years, and found that rather than enhancing my ability to buy, I am in a worse-off position. Good credit history. Lots of savings. Very good incomes. Not even close to being able to afford a nice house.
Take Pasadena at the moment. It is a pleasant city, with a generally lousy school system, some really amazing neighborhoods, and some areas where you can get your crack or meth fix. As of today there are 852 SFHs for sale in Pasadena. The median asking price is $799K! About a third are over $1M… More than 25% are over $1.5M!!!! That’s right, a quarter of the listings on realtor.com are over $1.5M. This is not that desirable a place. Everyone we know with real money lives in San Marino, South Pasadena or La Canada, unless they are so wealthy that the school system doesn’t matter and the can afford >$20K per child for private schools.
I understand that most people who bought over the last few years really couldn’t afford the prices the paid… with ARMs and IO loans helping them buy into the “dream” of home debtorship, but how can it be that 25% of the houses for sale are more than $1.5M????!!! Is there some secret job that I don’t know about? I had thought our family income was in the top 5% of incomes, but even so, with other expenses including childcare, college savings, and retirement savings, a $1M house is all I can comfortably afford. Right now, this buys a marginal house in a marginal neighborhood. The kind of house that would have fetched about $300K just a few years back. Indeed, I found one for sale the other day where the owners bought in 96 and were expecting to sell at a price that epresented a 15% annual increase over 10 years!
I read this blog religiously for support of our decision to rent, but the movement is so slow, that it is painful. I need to cut down my visits as they only exacerbate my frustration. Yes, we are no longer ridiculed at parties for failing to buy, but everyone here has started to accept that these prices are somehow “normal” - even to the point that friends excitedly tell us about 1.2M hosues that “need some work.” Let’s see, putting down $200K, that leaves a $1M mortgage… About a $6K per month mortgage (30-year fixed). OK, so there is some tax savings, but that is partially offset by property tax of $1000 per month. Even with good incomes, we would not have the money to fix up the house, so would be living in a shabby place and paying most all of our discretionary income. How can this work?
We are coming to the conclusion that we have to rent for another 3 years or so before we can consider buying. If we move to a bigger, nicer place, we will likely lose at least $24-36K in additional rent over the 3-year period. However, that loss seems to be worth it, if buying resulted in a $300K to $600K loss over the same period.
Pasadena_Renter,
yes, it has been slow and it is no fun to wait. But at this point, a buyer can buy now and suffer loss of value (25% to 50%) or wait a few years. Overall, the wait will be worth it as you will get a much lower monthly payment and more discretionary income for your family in the future. You can then get the house you really want at a decent price.
Moving to a nicer house to rent may help so you can enjoy where you are living while waiting.
“…a $1M house is all I can comfortably afford.”
And you want sympathy? Start donating some of your time and money helping out the homeless or something. Be thankful for what you do have, not what you cannot purchase right now. Consider moving away from the materialistic cesspool that is corrupting your mind and values system.
“I had thought our family income was in the top 5% of incomes, but even so, with other expenses including childcare, college savings, and retirement savings, a $1M house is all I can comfortably afford.”
To “comfortably” afford a $1M house, your HH income needs to be in the top 1% (about 300k), or you need a massive down payment.
We are not really talking about affording a 1m house, we are talking about being able to service a 1m mortgage (30yr/20% plus taxes & ins) is probably closing in on 7-8k month.
Just to put things in perspective: for most places in the country, to even have this conversation, you would be one rich cat. Heck, with the down payment alone you pay cash for very decent shelter. That Pasadena must be some place.
You would be shocked. No, horrified.
Quit your bantering Bear. Being able to afford a $1m house isn’t that special in California, especially when anything less is a sh*tbox. The frustration is well-founded when you make well into six-figures and can’t afford to buy the same house a Wal-Mart clerk can in other states.
No, I won’t grush. Ben is the moderator, not you. When someone is lamenting about how they can only afford a million dollar house, and we have millions of kids in this country going to bed hungry, I will always speak up. When someone has the ability to rent a gorgeous house and live a very comfortable life, yet complains about what they cannot do, they’ve lost touch. I don’t feel their pain, your pain, or any other greedheads for that matter. And $1m still gets you a decent house in CA. Cut the bullsh!t.
“And $1m still gets you a decent house in CA. Cut the bullsh!t.”
Are you kidding? Maybe in Oxnard.
Seriously, in most desirable areas (even that’s a stretch) $1M doesn’t get shit. Unless… A Korean war era no frills 1400sqft tract house on a 7500sqft lot is what you consider decent. You have lived in CA long enough to have let it affect your judgement.
$1 million in California is nothing worth living in if the area has decent schools.
I feel for Pasadena_renter. You do the right thing to improve your standard of living and suddenly you are priced out of the market. I know many people in this situation. I see them slowly moving off to other states.
I too have noticed that I am no longer pitied for not buying. Oh, everyone still says “when will you buy?” I point out that I need to save a bunch in the next 12 months as I cannot save as a buyer (heads nod) and so I’ll wait at least 18 months.
But we’re (we=me and my soon to be wife) are going to move into a 3 bedroom to wait it out. As I already posted, rents are dropping for 3 bedrooms pretty quick.
Neil
“And $1m still gets you a decent house in CA. Cut the bullsh!t.”
Are you kidding? Maybe in Oxnard.
She mentioned Pasadena not Oxnard. And I don’t live in LA, or even CA for that matter, so your comment regarding that is null. But I have a sister in Westwood and am well familiar with the bubble there. To insinuate that one cannot find an acceptable home in Pasadena for $1m is total BS. You should check out the mls before running your mouth. These homes are more than acceptable, and above average as far as homes go in the US, IMO. Of course they are overpriced, but so is everything in every bubble market right now. That is why it is foolish to be buying. But if one is hell bent on it, properties are available. Plug these numbers into the mls and take a look for yourself. And keep in mind these are ASKING PRICES. They will most surely sell for much less. One could look at properties well over $1 million and negotiate down. Plug these numbers into the mls and see for yourself.
mls 22078609- 2564 sq. ft .2 acres $925,000
mls 12084688- 2167 sq. ft. .23 acres $969,000
mls 22081359- 3199 sq. ft. .37 acres $979,000
mls 22077652- 2060 sq. ft. .21 acres $945,000
mls 22083778- 2280 sq. ft. .17 acres $998,000
Decent yes, the problem is that $1m should get you something much more than decent.
pasadena homes are like works of art. built in the 20’s on huge lots. mini museums. i grew up in pasadena, my mom is still there.
there are very few NEW homes and rents are better than the coast.
This “maybe in Oxnard” comment is off-base. Even in the SF Bay Area you can buy a nice place (3 BR, safe neighborhood, close to transit) for ). Pasadena, maybe not.
Your comment assumes that I donate neither my time nor money. You are incorrect. Thanks for solidifying my resolve not to vist this blog again.
YW, I guess.
Hey Pasadena, it’s like I’m looking in a mirror. I’m in West L.A. and I totally get your situation (don’t listen to BB, he doesn’t live in CA, he doesn’t have to face on a daily basis how furious it makes people like us who make a decent wage to see the exorbitant prices on these crapboxes). Plus he took a cheap and totally uncalled for/uninformed shot at your character. That’s the nature of community blogs of course–open up the floodgates and some garbage occasionally gets in.
The upshot is, I appreciated your commentary and I hope you don’t give up on this.
“…don’t listen to BB, he doesn’t live in CA, he doesn’t have to face on a daily basis how furious it makes people like us who make a decent wage to see the exorbitant prices on these crapboxes). Plus he took a cheap and totally uncalled for/uninformed shot at your character. That’s the nature of community blogs of course–open up the floodgates and some garbage occasionally gets in.”
LOL. Cry us a river Mithter Thentral Valley Boy. Move to another state if you are having such fits of fury. And I can tell by your post you just exemplify class. NOT.
Whatever dude. Enjoy your sister you dumbass.
Chill out BB - where’s the fire?
What I got from Pasadena Renter’s post was what many of us living in LA have said over the last months - prices are completely out of whack here in LaLaLand. 1 million really won’t buy you anything special here at the moment - so hold off getting up close and personal, eh?
Pasadena Renter,
I have no useful advice for you, the situation all over LA is really, really tough at all income levels. The only people who can buy those $1M+ homes you’re looking at are trade up buyers. I would say, set a two year time limit, if you can’t get a decent place in that time period, and owning is important to you, start looking around other locations. Otherwise, the waiting game can really get to you.
…my thoughts exactly, Bear.
ONLY a million-dollar hovel? Call the Wahmbulance!
It’s not “I need to vent,” but “I need to Rent.”
If the price of admission to the Magical Adventure of Home Ownership is a Haircut/Bath/FallingKnife/InsertMetaphorHere, then thanks but no thanks.
Remember, Pasadena: Every day that RE falls — and you’re not in the market — is a glorious victory. The More of those days, the Better! Your hypothetical $1M house gets nicer with each passing day, Little Camper!
My wife and I have owned two homes since 2000.
Had we bought in 1996, I probably could retire before 40.
Had we not $old last year, we’d probably be screwed.
I see Half Full-ness…
“Be thankful for what you do have, not what you cannot purchase right now”
How do you know that he/she isn’t thankful?
I think part of the frustration is “doing the right thing” (going to school, studdying hard, going to school even more, putting off buying toys, putting away monry for emergencies, living within your means), and then seeing people that didn’t buckle down come in and SEEMINGLY live more comfortable lives. It’s not the end of the world, but it is frustrating. At least until you realize the hole these people have dug for themselves. Then you start to think “well, maybe my hard work and frugalness WAS the right thing”.
At least until the government comes in and bails the others out.
“Start donating some of your time and money helping out the homeless or something. ” BAD Advice: Many of them are homeless for a reason. DRUGS. Partying instead of getting an education. Let Darwinism work, will ya?
Some Southern California landlords are lowering asking rents and offering move-in incentives, while vacancy rates are rising,- all signs the market may be softening
And who will they rent to? Aside from a few bears, everyone else with gainful employment already bought. Those ‘investment condos’ are going to depreciate even more quickly after the trailer-trash tenants are through with them.
Betamax posts” Those ‘investment condos’ are going to depreciate even more quickly after the trailer-trash tenants are through with them. ”
You nailed it. This will be another huge downside for the flipper caught naked, thinking they will wait it out. Pity the poor renter who could be tossed out in a hissy fit of panic.
I would not advise anyone to rent from a “flipper” they will treat you like trash if you get in the way of thier self intrest.
Pasadena_Renter, I’ve resigned myself to renting for another two years at least (probably three) but feel that opportunities to obtain cash flow property by 2011-2015 or so will be fantastic! We get to observe things first hand and have lots of time to prepare. Crisis = Opportunity.
Pasadena Renter. We are in a very similar situation, equally frustrated and rushed by the fact that we are living in a two bed condo with two kids (girl and boy). Here in the LA’s Westside, the situation is the same. I don’t think the point were buy vs. rent makes sense will come any time soon. I am bracing for the long haul am hoping that the coming upheaval will have an effect on the rental market so we can get into a 3 bed rental paying a little more than we are paying now. That is all I dare to dream for the moment. In the Westside, prices have dropped some but the nicer houses are still in the stratosphere, price-wise. Everything is in the air, but it hasn’t sunk in yet.
You forgot to mention how AWFUL the traffic has become on the Westside.
I thought that went without saying
keeping up with the Joneses is such a bitch!!
“but everyone here has started to accept that these prices are somehow “normal””
Pasadena - I don’t think this is the case at all. The only people I see that think ‘now is a good time to buy’ are the people who probably thought it was a good time to buy a year ago and don’t really understand the full scope of this. Just stay informed. That’s probably the only way to feel good about your decision along the way since it will be a while for this thing to fully play out.
Good point PR, the only people who have been telling me and the wife that now is a good time to buy are: 1) My real estate agent; and 2) the handful of GFs we have as friends or colleagues with whom we could not dissuade from buying in the past 12 months (despite our most ardent entreaties).
Keep the faith! Now is the turning of the tide, the forces of darkness are collapsing on the parapets of their own hubris.
I make in the top 10% and I can’t afford La Jolla. My life is ruined!
“The tide really does seem to be turning, but it is still so painfully slow. I invested in more education over the last few years, and found that rather than enhancing my ability to buy, I am in a worse-off position.”
One word…patience. I know talk is cheap, but you need to make a choice between short term and long term…do you want all of the cool stuff NOW, or can you wait until all of the the “me me me now now now” yahoos that you are competing against run out of credit? It’s no fun to compete against people who pretend to have money, so wait until the pretending stops.
Patience, PR, patience.
A few years from now that $1M will buy you more house than you could every possibly need. How big is that? Big enough to get lost in. Big enough to require full-time help, inside and out. Count on it.
People have toally forgotten what $1 MILLION dollars is. That is a lot of money.
TJ is right. $1M should buy a “basic” mansion, even in Pasadena.
Pasadena Renter should definitely rent a better place if the current one is making them feel pressured to buy.
You’ll be fine. The downturn is slow now because the banks know that unloading their REOs will drive prices down even faster, and put more of their other lenders underwater.
The thing to watch are the sub-primes and the underwriting standards. What drove up the prices so high was not the ability of people to afford a 30 year fixed on 1M ($6125), but rather the ability to afford an Option ARM on 1M, with a 1% teaser ($3216/mo). When these Option ARMs reset to, say, 10% interest, the payments go way up ($10,000/mo on this type of loan is probably on the low side), there is simply no way these people are going to be able to stay - their houses will be on the market, one way or another. There is also no way that these loans will show their face again in the next couple of decades – once the banks and other investors get through listing their writeoffs.
For the others, each of our circumstances is unique. I live in a house here in Houston that would probably fetch $1.5M in Pasadena (CA, that is), yet my wife built it for $250k on a $30k, ½ acre lot, (in a real nice suburb, 5 miles from work). PR, I bet your HH income is well above mine (I wouldn’t have a prayer even thinking about a mortgage of $1M) and yet you don’t even have the option of a modest house in a safe neighborhood.
Obviously you can leave CA, but I’m sure that you have business/personal reasons for wanting to stay. So the question is how to ride out this mess for the next TBD number of months, as the oversupply of houses make their impact. While I don’t know the market out there completely, I like the suggestion of renting a nicer place (maybe a house) for another $1,000/mo. I definitely would not look at renting as “losing money”, as you certainly will not be gaining money by paying something like $5.5K in interest each month, while your “investment” depreciates at several thousand more per month.
The only way that I would look at rent as losing money is if you could move to a much cheaper area and still have the same quality of life (i.e., income, friends, family, etc.). Given that you probably live within 10 miles of the original Tommy’s, I don’t see how that’s possible.
So hang in there. With the sub-primes now dropping on a weekly basis, and the fact that California now has a 5 year oversupply of housing (i.e., CA just finished building an extra 5 years of new housing stock), this crash may be much, much, faster than it now appears. To me, this is like Europe in 1914. Everyone knows all hell is going to break loose, but no one knows exactly when or where.
(maybe a double-post, first one didn’t make it)
You’ll be fine. The downturn is slow now because the banks know that unloading their REOs will drive prices down even faster, and put more of their other lenders underwater.
The thing to watch are the sub-primes and the underwriting standards. What drove up the prices so high was not the ability of people to afford a 30 year fixed on 1M ($6125), but rather the ability to afford an Option ARM on 1M, with a 1% teaser ($3216/mo). When these Option ARMs reset to, say, 10% interest, the payments go way up ($10,000/mo on this type of loan is probably on the low side), there is simply no way these people are going to be able to stay - their houses will be on the market, one way or another. There is also no way that these loans will show their face again in the next couple of decades – once the banks and other investors get through listing their writeoffs.
For the others, each of our circumstances is unique. I live in a house here in Houston that would probably fetch $1.5M in Pasadena (CA, that is), yet my wife built it for $250k on a $30k, ½ acre lot, (in a real nice suburb, 5 miles from work). PR, I bet your HH income is well above mine (I wouldn’t have a prayer even thinking about a mortgage of $1M) and yet you don’t even have the option of a modest house in a safe neighborhood.
Obviously you can leave CA, but I’m sure that you have business/personal reasons for wanting to stay. So the question is how to ride out this mess for the next TBD number of months, as the oversupply of houses make their impact. While I don’t know the market out there completely, I like the suggestion of renting a nicer place (maybe a house) for another $1,000/mo. I definitely would not look at renting as “losing money”, as you certainly will not be gaining money by paying something like $5.5K in interest each month, while your “investment” depreciates at several thousand more per month.
The only way that I would look at rent as losing money is if you could move to a much cheaper area and still have the same quality of life (i.e., income, friends, family, etc.). Given that you probably live within 10 miles of the original Tommy’s, I don’t see how that’s possible.
So hang in there. With the sub-primes now dropping on a weekly basis, and the fact that California now has a 5 year oversupply of housing (i.e., CA just finished building an extra 5 years of new housing stock), this crash may be much, much, faster than it now appears. To me, this is like Europe in 1914. Everyone knows all hell is going to break loose, but no one knows exactly when or where.
I want to thank those who provided helpful commentary. I will agree with the detractors that my post may sound a bit self-absorbed. I do, of course, realize that there are bigger problems facing the planet/country/state/city/etc than my ability to buy a house.
In the time since my original post, inventory has been creeping up, and there is far more MSM coverage of housing holding off. However, a nondescript house sold a few blocks away for $1.2M and it is in need of about $200K of work (which is being done). I am mainly wondering who the people are who have that kind of money.
It has been a crazy five years. Clearly there has never been a time in which a delay in purchasing over such a period has so eroded purchasing power.
At thoses high prices I bet AMT will kick in and offset much of the tax write_off?
Anyone have any good input:
Sister and brother in law want to purchase a commerical building in Camarillo CA (North of LA-Robert Cote area) in the Flynn Road Business Park. (www.flynnroad.com) About 1100 sq. ft. for 269,950. This is called a “Premium Industiral Condominium”.
He will run his construction business out of it.
I got a bad feeling on this one, but need facts to back up a bad feeling.
That place is full of empty buildings. I work off of pleasant valley exit..
Technicolor is laying off 600 employees and closing down it’s 500,000 sq. ft. building in Camarillo.
Yep, right across the freeway from the nearly empty 3M plant which is down the road from several others that have been empty solongI forget their tennants. There’s lots of weird behind those facades like the high tech monitor factory that now houses the worlds largest ornithological reference collection. The real “hollowing out” will be medical/insurance/etc office buildings. Farmers Branch and Longmont here they come.
A few light Electronic Manufacturing industries back there. Usually owned by a few wealthy Engineers who live in the area and employ local workers at low wages.
Massive overcapacity being built. Rents are murderous but remember Countrywide employs 9500 within 20 miles. The mello-roos would wipe out any potential benefits to owning. Camarillo planning dept is so corrupt with power and special interests it’s likely occpancy would come with conditions.
I’d sit tight and see occupancy rates for Village in the Park and Riverpark as economic indicators.
‘but remember Countrywide employs 9500 within 20 miles’
Robert, Get back to us with an update on that number around mid Feb, would you?
I am pretty sure that was his point, it won’t be 9500 in VenCo for long.
I’ve been checking home prices in Camarillo since 2004, when I sold my home there. It’s going to get hit harder than most places for the next two years, but then recover more quickly. It is far from everything but not far enough from Oxnard, which is severely overbuilt. However, long term it should be okay because it is both a retirement community and the site of the only new CSU in the system. If it turns into Thousand Oaks West and NOT Oxnard East, it should be okay, with appreciation from today’s prices by 2018-2020
Camarillo School district is the same one as Oxnard. (pleasant valley).
That is all you need you need to know about the future of camarillo. Run the demographics forward 15 years. comprende?
I expect in 15 years most of the Oxnard Gang problems will move inland. probably move to Phoenix haha, great. Ventura County has a big expensive police force at least compared to Phoenix. Lots of crime in Phoenix compared to when I lived in Moorpark Cali. But you’ll pay for that protection. They were always suing each other for funds in Ventura county as I remember.
Nope. PVSD is Camarillo only. You are thinking OUHSD (oxnard Union). At one time OUHSD included TO and Moorpark. They split off long ago and Camarillo is 3/4ths done in the same process.
I do commercial lending for a small bank. $245/ sg ft seems high for light industrial. Just my opinion. Plus, he’s in an industry that is being “watched very carefully” by banks right now. He might want to continue to rent unless his current rent is close to what his PITI would be.
Damn straight. When I was looking last summer for office space I ended up building a “shed” in the backyard. $45/sf including the pergraniteel. Doesn’t everyone have granite countertops in their shed?
“Sister and brother in law want to purchase a commerical building in Camarillo CA (North of LA-Robert Cote area) in the Flynn Road Business Park.”
Do occasional trips there to Wyle Labs. There are some hi-tech companies in that park, though their numbers are very few. Camarillo industrial complex is rather small compared to the South OC hi-tech parks and even the Valencia industrial complex. Camarillo admittedly is a clean well-kept burg,though just down the fwy is Oxnard which has adopted the IE route toward uninhibited sprawling growth. Btw, I checked datquick dec zips and Ventura county is showing continuing yoy declines for SFH’s, especially City of Ventura 3 zips. It is astonishing but Ventura County homes are almost at even keel with some LA inner city zip prices. Maywood, bell, and huntington park, 3 heavily immigrant areas off the grimy 710 fwy industrial rail corridor, are close to $500,000 median prices. Some gang-infested hood zips off the 110 harbor fwy are close to 1/2 mil medians as well. There are some serious lending issues/overappraisal/likely fraud going in the LA inner city crapzones, which i will vent on another posting.
‘There are some serious lending issues/overappraisal/likely fraud going in the LA inner city crapzones, which i will vent on another posting.’
These areas do appear to be ground zero for the current flood of straw buyer/buyer who turns out to be the local junkie/inmate/homeless dude type of scams.
check out these nos. for dec dataquick median sales price in some notorious LA zips:
inglewood 90301 5 $549,000 +12.5% yoy
” 90305 11 569,000 +12.7 ”
LA 90011 23 445 ” +18.2
east LA 90022 16 465 ” +16.8
LA 90037 21 476 ” +21.3
sgate 90280 53 490 +15.3
LA 90044 42 449 +16.3
LA 90037 21 476 +21.3
Every LA zip listed is off the 110 fwy in Scental, and are some of the slummiest crime infected,gang ridden,ilegal alien impacted hovels in the US,yet look at the prices and yoy! Lenders/SBA are being taken to the cleaners thru outright fraud/overappraisals/loose lending standards/toxic subprimes,straw buyers/seller kickbacks/you name it, out in the dilapilated scummy LA slumzones. Or hispanic immigrant families doing min pay options at teaser rates which will result in massive scentral foreclosure rates/tons of REO’s all over inner LA metro zips.
Time for another LA riot to torch all those upcoming REO’s and sanitize the ghettos.
Crap I’m going to get kicked out of here! Attempting to bold off.
OT: My grandfather used to always tell me “Your eyes are bigger than your stomach”. As a child I never could figure out what he meant but here is a perfect analogy.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2007-01-19-toyota-honda_x.htm?csp=26
“Brokers like Mike Fleming, who sells homes with his wife, Lea Ann, for McGuire Real Estate in San Francisco, say that better pricing strategies are getting results.
Over the weekend, an open house for a two-bedroom Victorian condo in Lower Pacific Heights that the Flemings said they listed at a “realistic” price of $799,000 drew about 100 people.
“It was the biggest crowd I’ve seen in months,” Fleming said.
As more sellers realize that they need to lower their asking price to attract buyers, the median home price is likely to fall further, according to Levy. ”
Comical. “better pricing strategies are getting results”.
Talking this thing down by using euphamisms. Pricing strategies my A$$. CUTTING OR IN SOME CASES SLASHING PRICES. This isn’t a strategy, like some guys are analyzing, studying coming up with theories. Realtors are dumb. They don’t use strategies. Doesn’t even remotely apply. This is simple. PERIOD.
Panic isn’t far behind now…
I’ve noticed a lot of the same things you observed, how realtors tend to use fancy marketing speak to describe what is simply a lowered price. Anything to hide the truth, prices will fall.
Panic isn’t far away… but here are the real estate emotions (just re-blogged this on my blog of zero readers)
1. Optimism
2. Excitement
3. Thrill
4. Euphoria (market price peak)
5. Anxiety (I’m a long term investor, not a speculator.)
6. Denial
7. Fear
8. Desperation
9. Panic
10 Capitulation
11 Despondency (start of market price bottom)
12 Depression (end of market price bottom)
13 Hope (hey, this investment has picked up off its bottom)
14 Relief (Its almost what I paid for it…)
15 Optimism (cycle starts again)
Optimal buying is between 11 and 12 for price, but between 10 and 11 for selection. Either way, buying before fall of 2008 is a bit crazy…
http://recomments.blogspot.com/
Neil
I would think we’re around the 5-6 range right now. Despite everything that has already happened, the majority of people I know are still clueless.
You might be right… one reason I put it out there is *most* people anticipate the order.
Neil
I should note (its on my blog) we’re at about 6.5 by my estimate.
Re-reading, I see I made it sound more like 8.5. That would be too early.
Neil
Neil and patient –
I totally concur with your estimate of 6.5. Thanks to the REIC (esp. the $40m NAR propaganda campaign), we may be stuck at this point for a while longer, until it dawns on everyone (including David Lereah) that without subprime loans, there is no bid that can approach current pricing.
I give it to the end of 2007 to get to stage 7, with desperation / panic (stage 8.5) hitting in 2008 when the foreclosure tsunami tide is cresting. It will be far too late for helicopter drops at that stage, which will amount to pushing on a string (but good for showing the Fed cares…).
Perspective is shot. Objective is to do deals, not attract volumes of people to open houses. The first counts as results, the latter is just overhead.
Talk about results, let us know when lower prices really start to move properties.
“I have a different theory. The jobs to home ratio is still 1.7 in fact but 0.9 of the 1.7 is an illegal from south of the border.”
———————————————————
for that statement to be true, the illegal aliens would have to be paid in cash. cash cannot be booked as an expense.
what is happening is that illegal aliens are being paid on the books but are using phony documents. they are being counted in the jobs numbers.
My wife works at San Diego County Credit Union. She’s told me some interesting stories recently.
Their branch has turned down 3 equity loans due to too low of appraisals this month, which is a lot considering how few equity loans her branch does.
A guy came in and paid his $2800 mortgage on a credit card. I guess he’ll be OK since he’ll be able to pay it off when he refinances after the spring bounce.
Another guy took out 75K a couple weeks ago to purchase a house to flip.
I also heard a radio add on KOGO from a law firm soliciting clients with I/O pay option loans. If you have a I/O pay option loan and only paid the minimum, they can get you your money back.
Crazy stuff this housing market.
I’ve heard those ads too…a lot of people here in sunny SD (not so much today though) are in for a rude shock in the next couple of years.
Whose money do they get back?
Still to be determined: Who is the ultimate bagholder when the money mirage vanishes?
The freaky money is still flowing freely through the housing market in San Diego, which explains why sales have not completely dried up. Anyone with a good credit rating, marketable skills and savings is advised to pull up a chair, pop some popcorn and enjoy the show for the next few years, as the subprime subsidence will wreak havoc on those who are currently profiting from “crazy stuff.”
I wonder if someone in financial hot water burned down those condos in Escondido near San Diego. I would love to hear the results of that investigation!
Are you suggesting the widely known phenomenon of “jewish lightning” in the insurance industry… No offense to those of the faith. That’s what it was called by more than one person in the industry when I worked in the financial world.
To the Editor of Desert Sun - Mary Stephens:
Was she exchanging her three kids to buy a home. OR Her 3 kids would have to live under the same roof if they pooled thier funds?
Just curious.
“Take Pasadena at the moment. It is a pleasant city, with a generally lousy school system, some really amazing neighborhoods, and some areas where you can get your crack or meth fix. As of today there are 852 SFHs for sale in Pasadena. The median asking price is $799K! About a third are over $1M… More than 25% are over $1.5M!!!!”
Don,t lose hope! San Marino recorded a -15.5% yoy decline in it’s zip per dec data quick. 11 homes sold ave 1.1 mil apiece. Yes! Old Money wealth San Marino, the area of 1-acre tudor estates, is only twice as expensive as some SCentral LA hood shacks.
“Don,t lose hope! San Marino recorded a -15.5% yoy decline in it’s zip per dec data quick. 11 homes sold ave 1.1 mil apiece”
correction: San Marino sold 10 homes in zip91108 @ $1.135 mil median sell price at -15.6 yoy. Nov datquick showed a similar performance.
here are pasadena nos off Dec Dataquick:
city zip sfhsold medprice yoy%
Pasadena 91101 n/a
Pasadena 91103 15 $1,280 143.8%
Pasadena 91104 24 $635 2.4%
Pasadena 91105 9 $898 -23.8%
Pasadena 91106 12 $1,345 33.8%
Pasadena 91107 32 $742 4.8%
Just like in LA westside a very few well-off folks paying premium prices for homes in mint zips such as 91103 and 91106. Rest of pasadena, presumably the lessor areas, show small yoy or declines.
I think everyone is missing the point about affordable housing. When price rise for onwership and rent , soon or later people will move which is what is happening in the East Coast and parts of the West in Calif. High wages cannot continue to pay for housing as businesses need to make a profit. Businesses will move out and create a lower demand for housing. It takes time but it will happen!!!
“Earl Rozran, a Realtor (in) Pleasanton, said some properties in the East Bay have been on the market for six months. ‘Some sellers have refused to make any price concessions at all,’ he said. ‘Yet they are surprised when there is very little showing activity or offers.’”
No surprise: No bid — no offers.