“Housing Priced Itself Out Of The Market”
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. Virginia, “Three experts, speaking to the Frederick County Builders Association, said the housing slump isn’t over. Wayne Six, a Frederick appraiser, said the inventory of homes, now at 1,500, will most likely climb to 2,200. ‘We knew it was coming. The market could not keep up with prices going up at 20 percent or more. It had to stop somewhere. Housing priced itself out of the market.’”
“Sellers, the three experts said, have to realize the change in the market and come down on prices. Six used several examples where some large homes were on the market for as much as $100,000 less than what was paid for them less than two years ago.”
From New Jersey. “Real estate expert Jeffrey Otteau told conference attendees that the widely forecast crash following the recent housing market bubble might not happen. ‘It’s beginning to look like this will be a correction and not a crash,’ said Otteau, president of the Otteau Appraisal Group of East Brunswick.”
“Betting their luck will hold, a Cape Coral couple hope to beat a soft real estate market by selling their home at auction. ‘We really don’t have to sell, but we decided to change our lifestyle and say goodbye to Florida,’ Ginnie Ward said
“Here in idiosyncratic Chicago, it’s ‘da price’ index. And I’ve found that da price is nearly always paired with the ‘who can afford dat?’ index.”
“We ask: Who is buying those $400,000 condos in Uptown and those $900,000 condos downtown? What do they do for a living? With the follow-up question: How do I get that job? There sure seems to be a lot of this expensive new stuff out there. Are there really enough buyers for all this construction?”
From Australia. “Service director Sue Mahalingham said that, until now, many people who had borrowed too heavily and defaulted on home loans had been able to sell their properties and still make a profit after repaying their loan.”
“But with reports of negative growth for the first time in a number of years, people who have bought in to the Perth property market and then defaulted on their loan face the situation where they may still have a debt left if they sell their house,’ Ms Mahalingham said.”
From Canada. “At least a third of condos and houses on the market in Calgary are vacant, prompting concern from a real estate agent that sellers aren’t being realistic about the price they hope to get for their properties.”
“‘Sellers are having a hard time grasping that we are not in early last year’s market,’ said Kristen McNaughton, a Calgary real estate agent.”
“Kevin Clark, president of the Calgary Real Estate Board, said almost half of the properties that sold in December went at a reduced price. ‘There are properties that were overpriced, are still overpriced and haven’t sold, and therefore becoming vacant,’ he said.”
From Idaho. “The Ada County vacancy rate for single-family rental houses fell in 2006, driven downward by slumping area home sales, according to a survey of local property management companies. ‘As housing has gotten more expensive, it’s become cheaper to rent,’ said Tony Drost, owner of a Boise company that handles single-family rentals for investors. ‘I had one client who was renting and thought he wanted to buy his own home — until he saw what the mortgage payment would be.’”
“San Diego police found a group of homeless people living inside the Laurel Street Bridge in Balboa Park. One of the occupants told NBC 7/39 that the group were in the process of turning the bridge into a multi-level condo complex. ‘The fifth floor was going to be the grand hall, it had rafters and and vaulted ceilings,’ said occupant Ruben Lopez.”
From Colorado. “Weld County eked out of its roughest year in 2006, posting 2,073 foreclosures, easily surpassing the 1,500 posted the year before. Somewhere along the line, the rules relaxed. Suddenly, people could buy homes with no money down, and all sorts of creative financing mechanisms popped up. The danger of all of this, we hope, is finally starting to sink in.”
“We hope, even in the face of impending legislation that could help stop the abuse, that buyers come down to earth and start realizing what they can afford. We also hope that area real estate agents and mortgage brokers walk that line with them as the market slowly recovers. It’s not just about morality; it’s about saving an economy.”
From Oregon. “What a year it was to get into, or out of, a home. In late spring, Portland-area housing eased up. The area’s most active real estate agents noticed slower sales. By midsummer, the inventory of houses for sale bumped up to the highest level in more than two years.”
“The ‘For Sale’ signs will be going out with the spring thaw. Time will tell whether buyers come knocking.”
A technically challenging week, but a good one nonetheless. My thanks to those who support this blog. Since I was off-line until so late today, and didn’t get to start a topics post, feel free to post any suggestions on this thread.
BTW, do not send in any photos until further notice. We are checking to see if some of the recent instability may be making its way in by email and have closed the mailbox.
Please check back this weekend for news, your market observations and topics!
Ben,
Consider keeping a separate setup for email - if you’re running the mail servers for your domain on the same machine as the web server, you’re to prone to mailbombing DOS attacks.
Perhaps just use something like hbbphotos_at_gmail_dot_com type mailbox for the photos.
“Real estate expert Jeffrey Otteau told conference attendees that the widely forecast crash following the recent housing market bubble might not happen. ‘It’s beginning to look like this will be a correction and not a crash,’ said Otteau, president of the Otteau Appraisal Group of East Brunswick.”
I’ve come to the habit of when people say prices won’t crash (drop, whatever) of saying “you’re probably right. No wonder there are rumors at work about a relocation out of state…” and then I give stats on our salaries, etc. Nothing to say I think RE is going down in price…
The expressions are priceless…
Got popcorn?
Neil
When people say in Jan 2007, prices won’t crash, ask them what they said in Jan, 2006, but you better be protected from all the BS they throw your way. It is my contention, if they were out to lunch in 2006, why should they look any better now.
If easy to get fooled just look at Pulte Homes (PHM) they had a press release yesterday stating they they were going to lose more money than expected and today the stock went up.
Behavior like this can throw a wrench into your mental process of seeing is believing.
Neil………
That old adage will apply…………
The bigger the boom……..the bigger the bust
Yep… and the bust is starting.
Jobs are going to leave the bubble areas. The lucky ones will be transfered out and the relocation package will not only cover the 6% RE commision, but another $50k or so of lost “equity.” ($50k is usally the maximum in a fortune 500 relcation, but its been awhile, update me if the common practice has changed. I see no reason for them to have done so during the boom…).
Someone pointed out earlier to ‘get back to them’ on Countrywide’s employment later… we’ll. So-cal is about to get spanked in sub-prime layoffs. That will get interesting soon. When? I doubt its more than 3 months off for the layoffs. Let’s say they get a 4 to 5 month severence package… (the lucky ones) That puts the real pain for So-Cal in the September timeframe…
So I wait…
For those foreclosures to become REO’s.
Got popcorn?
Neil
My brother is a sub prime broker in Orange County. While it has thinned out - the loans are still there. Refinance is very strong. Higher credit scores are required…but the business is there. He is not telling me the same wild and hilarious stories of how he qualified hispanics for loans in the Inland Empire. When that place falls it will be with a MIGHTY THUD.
One man’s ten year correction is another man’s crash I always say.
“Nothing to say I think RE is going down in price…”
Lucky for me, we are seeing obvious price drops here on the central coast. Even the YOY numbers are down. Only people who haven’t been following real estate for the last six months think that things are “OK”. However, a large protion of them still think that things will get straightened out “in the Spring”. Meanwhile, my informal inventory tracking is looking, well, how shall I put it…fun.
Soooooo….. Exactly what is the difference between a “correction” and a “crash”? Won’t the end result be much lower prices and a whole lot of pain for over-leveraged debtor/owners?
Houston, I have a problem
Any of you know anything about real estate law?
About 15 year ago my dad was married to a real winner and since divorced.She racked up debt beyond belief.The problem is a parcel of land they owned has several judgements against it.In california, in my understanding, a judgement must be refiled every 10 years to remain effective. Well some of the creditors did not refile the judgement but the county did for back taxes of some sort.The property was quitclaimed to me about 7 years ago and is solely in my name now.I am wondering how to deal with this.The county had several judjements but only refiled a few of them.I asked them for a payoff statement and they added in all the judjements, even the ones not refiled after the 10 year period.I am willing to pay the ones refiled but don’t know what to do w/ the others.The problem w/ this is if I was ever to sell the property all this cr@p would show up in a title report and freak out a buyer.None of the judgements were against any debt from me, all from dad’s loser ex wife but property was in both their names.Does anybody have any good advice? Thank to all
I love to go it alone, but it seems to me if the numbers warrant it you need an attorney in this instance.
I’d try to settle with them for less than you owe. I’m sure they’d rather have money now.
Ditto. If that fails, I’d have a real estate attorney look at it.
Verify the ownership. with the county/
then determine the back taxes.
The recordedwner is all that matters.
IF you owe back taxes and the property value exceeds the back tax debt,,,,,you have an asset.
The buyer only cares that the taxes are current!!!!
Too bad you didn’t dump it about a year ago — some fool would have overpaid and happily overlooked all the title problems since it’s land and you know they aren’t making any more of it.
Tax liens are clearly a cloud on title. I don’t know the rules in CA, but liens that are not renewed are generally no longer a lien against the property. They don’t care about the fairness of the debt. The only question at this point is what is a properly perfected and continuing lien. It sounds like it might be only the renewed one. I agree with Txchick that you should try to settle with the amount of the renewed lien being the top to pay. You won’t get a lower level bureaucrat to recognize that it isn’t the full amount. It would probably take some involvement by lawyers for the state to recognize the lower amount is all that is valid. Unfortunately, that probably means that you will have to hire a lawyer. They can also tell you if there are some special rules relating to tax liens. Many states have them. (Shocking, isn’t it, that there are special rules for gov’t?)
In Pennsylvania (and probably in most other jurisdictions), the refiling of a lien is a “priority” issue, not a statute of limitations issue. In other words, if a judgment creditor fails to refile his lien, then he basically falls out of the “priority line” and newer-filed judgments go to the front of the priority line.
Generally, once a lien has been perfected by the initial filing, it runs with the land. It is not likely that a perfected lien is no longer effective merely because it was not refiled. However, since laws can vary as to the type of lien filed … go get a lawyer.
A future buyer has no reason be freaked out by a slew of filed liens, (instead, the seller usually freaks out), as long as his purchase price is sufficient to pay the liens in full and cover the transaction costs. If the purchase price is less, then the buyer will be concerned that the seller might be unable to negotiate a settlement with the lien holders, queering the deal.
You got to hand it the the SEC and other regulators of the securities markets. No selfish analyst or broker talks like that anymore. Heck! they would have their NASD license taken away from them and huge fines imposed.
Taking a RE license away from a realtor is like a barber losing his license. There will be lots of RE license flushed down the toilet very soon.
Maryland Lender Closes
Bay Capital, a Maryland-based mortgage banking firm, has closed its doors after its parent company declared itself insolvent.
Click here for more.
In Las Vegas this week.
US Mortgage filed bankruptcy, said NV Mortgage overseir, David Bice.
This company’s principal income was from monthly collection fees from Real estate mortgages, mostly US Agencies…Fannie. Ginnnei & Freddie.. Without monthly payments ….no monthly income of 1/2% to collect from the agenicies…or others.
Based on the report this was VERY disturbing information.
Loved the San Diego Condo builders. Do you think they requested a building permit following their plan presentation, in the pokie?
Did you get a load of the “pirate architect” –with 3-sided hat to boot? Maybe they’ll give him his own show on HGTV: Flip That Bridge.
Bridge condos for everyone!
“Maybe they’ll give him his own show on HGTV: Flip That Bridge.”
Outstanding!
It’s amazing in this easy credit environment they couldn’t get a bridge loan.
Ahhhh… looks like Pen beat me to it below. Oh well!
I looked into that conversion. Still couldn’t afford it.
“San Diego police found a group of homeless people living inside the Laurel Street Bridge in Balboa Park. One of the occupants told NBC 7/39 that the group were in the process of turning the bridge into a multi-level condo complex. ‘The fifth floor was going to be the grand hall, it had rafters and and vaulted ceilings,’ said occupant Ruben Lopez.”
Hilarious. Make sure you check out the video.
Ole Paul Revere seemed mentally coherant for a homeless guy however since these guys had a five story San Diego waterfront condo they must be the homeless elite.
Although we did discuss “squatting” in a thread last weekend I don’t believe anybody mentioned the possibility of squatting a bridge in plain view. Isn’t this the type of thing you heard about the Great Depression?
“San Diego police found a group of homeless people living inside the Laurel Street Bridge in Balboa Park. One of the occupants told NBC 7/39 that the group were in the process of turning the bridge into a multi-level condo complex. ‘The fifth floor was going to be the grand hall, it had rafters and and vaulted ceilings,’ said occupant Ruben Lopez.”
I’ve just got to see the “GS” and “imploder” view on this one
That was probably Imploder in the three corner hat interviewed on the news!
hahahahaha………
imploder din’t get ta say nutten cause “Be-a-dick Arnold” and his crew, voted imploder off the Condo association board, and out of the “complex”. Claimed imploder passed to much gas. What can imploder say? imploder likes his own “brand”.
Imagine!!!..the latest in water saving technology ..no-flush free fall squat down toilets.
“One of the occupants told NBC 7/39 that the group were in the process of turning the bridge into a multi-level condo complex.”
I have often seen homeless guys around Balboa Park when my family and I visit. Little did I know they were condo investors. Now I am dying to know — are they in the SDCIA?
That’s as sweet as the guy that dug a hole in the ground in Nantucket and lived there tax free for several years:
Copyright 1998 The Washington Post
December 29, 1998, Tuesday
A Nantucket Hermit Is Pulled From His Shell; Discovery of Subterranean Home May End Man’s Quest for Serenity and a Simple Life
Pamela Ferdinand, Special to The Washington Post
NANTUCKET, Mass.
Tucked away in an island wilderness of bayberry bushes and pine trees, Thomas Johnson’s front door lies hidden beneath a twisted mat of dead twigs and fallen leaves.
Brushing aside the natural camouflage, he opens a wooden hatch and descends a built-in ladder, legs first, hand under hand, until he feels the stone floor of his home eight feet below. Three cedar-paneled rooms contain a queen-sized bed, stove and pantry, and the dreams of a latter-day Thoreau who went to the woods to soothe his soul.”
http://tinyurl.com/28rjqu
Like the caveman…
Caveman found living on DOE land
Jason Auslander | The New Mexican
October 29, 2004
During the four years he lived in a cave at the bottom of a canyon on Los Alamos National Laboratory property, Roy Michael Moore apparently carved out a comfortable home for himself, authorities said Thursday.
The 56-year-old homeless veteran not only had solar panels connected to car batteries for electricity, but also a wood-burning stove, a bed, a door, satellite radio and several mature marijuana plants, according to both Los Alamos Fire Department Deputy Chief Doug Tucker as well as photos of Moore’s site.
“He had a pretty nice setup for somebody living up there year-round,” Tucker said. “It was a very efficient camp.”
However, Moore’s Shangri-La came to an abrupt end earlier this month when a LANL employee saw smoke coming out of the cave and called firefighters, Tucker said.
Fire department personnel investigated the report, then called Los Alamos police, he said. Los Alamos police arrested Moore and charged him with possession of a controlled substance — a felony — and possession of drug paraphernalia, according to court documents.
Bernie Pleau, a LANL spokesman, said the employee spotted the smoke Oct. 13, when the weather “got real nasty up here. I guess he got cold,” Pleau said.
Tucker said firefighters discovered the fire Moore started in his wood-burning stove was his first of the season. Consequently, a plume of black soot and smoke came out, which was apparently enough to give away his position, the deputy chief said.
A Los Alamos police officer went to the site after firefighters discovered approximately 10 marijuana plants about 18-inches high planted in the ground outside the cave, according to a statement of probable cause filed in Los Alamos Magistrate Court. The officer also found a “metal marijuana pipe inside the cave area,” according to the statement.
The officer pulled the plants out of the ground and confiscated about 21 ounces of dried marijuana from the site, according to the statement.
The cave is in Los Alamos Canyon about a quarter-mile from Trinity Street in Los Alamos and about a half-mile from Omega Bridge, Tucker said. It was at the base of a steep cliff in a restricted area and was well hidden, he said.
Pleau said the cave was 50 yards out his office door to the west, through a few pine trees, over a fence and down at the bottom of a sheer 75-100-foot drop-off. When he looked over the edge of the cliff, Pleau said, he could see the solar panels at the bottom.
Moore likely accessed the cave from below, where a public road winds through the canyon, he said. While he didn’t go to the site, Pleau said, he heard the climb to the cave was “treacherous.”
The canyon where the cave is located is steep and wooded and near a decommissioned lab site that hasn’t been used in years, he said. The site isn’t near any critical or high security areas, Pleau said. “It wasn’t a security threat by any means,” he said.
Moore pleaded innocent to the charges during an arraignment Oct. 14 and was released on a $5,000 bond. It was unclear where Moore was Thursday — calls to a cell phone number he listed on court documents were not answered.
“Housing priced itself out of the market”
..ah yes, but did it price itself forever?…afterall, maybe they aren’t making any more buyers….
I posted comments similar to this in the last week or so..
….for those that didn’t sell last year, will they be priced in forever?
I see a very vicious cycle forming, where a seller can’t buy until the seller gets his current property under contract. Most no one wants to take a “house sale contingency” and most no one wants to buy without it. The sellers (would be buyers) want last year’s price for the property that they are selling and want this/next year’s price on the house they want to buy. lather-rinse-repeat…so unless you are a first time buyer or are willing to “sell first, buy second”..welcome to the stale-mate…
TAKE A BRIDGE LOAN…It will give you something to jump off of six to twelve months from now, when realize just how over-priced your POS is and just how “SPECIAL” it ain’t.
For me, as a would be buyer….
1 - please write me a 1,000 word essay on why I should buy your house and not one of other thousand ones for sale
2 - please enclose a picture of yourself on your hands and knees with a sign saying “please buy my house”
3 - please remember clean the house and to fix all those things that you have neglected for the last 30 years
4 - please offer to pay my closing costs
5 - bake me some cookies (oatmeal raisin or chocolate chip will be just fine)
P.S. - LOWER THE FOOKIN’ PRICE*
P.P.S. - don’t forget to feed the squirrels…
FOOKIN’ - masked expletive to be attributed to hd74man, who I have seen post in little while..(hd74..if you are lurking, please say hey - I could use some North Shore insight)
My parents are readying their house for the market later this year. Upgrading all the baths, pulling up carpet and finishing the hardwood floors, installing central air, and more. Here’s what I have to wonder…why the hell would you wait until you’re selling your house to do all that? Wouldn’t you rather enjoy those updgrades yourself? But, of course, they’re doing all this on the advice of their “expert” realtor. Me? I’d just price it accordingly…meaning minus A/C, downgraded baths, etc. Ridiculous.
I wasn’t suggesting a remodel, but a little scrubbing and paint will go a long way.
Pulling up the carpet and doing the hardwood is a good way to go.
Sorry your parents got such really bad advice on the other stuff.
I’m thinking I want a real real estate professional, one who is able to sell my house through skill and professionalism, and earn that commission. Don’t think my job is to spend money to make it easier for them to do their job. They think they can earn their commission better by putting in new carpet, let them do it.
FOOKIN’ - masked expletive to be attributed to hd74man, who I have seen post in little while..
My father died two weeks ago, so I’ve been layin’ kinda low.
my condolences, sorry to hear that..
I know how rough that road is.
My condolences. I am very sorry for your loss.
hd74man:
Prayers offered up. May your Dad RIP.
Hope you are well.
I’m sorry for your loss, too, hd74man.
Sorry to hear about your loss. My condolences.
I’m a slob. So when I sold, I tarted up my apartment, painted it, all that crap. I got a LOT of money for it, and the offers were much higher than they had been before I did all that. It’s just marketing. I don’t really care if my place has a few marks on the wall. But buyers do. Think of it as a hardcover book. If the dustjacket is ripped, you grab one off the table that isn’t. They’re both just as good.
“Think of it as a hardcover book. If the dustjacket is ripped, you grab one off the table that isn’t. They’re both just as good.”
Knockwurst — that’s a good, original analogy to which most of us can relate.
“Here’s what I have to wonder…why the hell would you wait until you’re selling your house to do all that? Wouldn’t you rather enjoy those updgrades yourself? But, of course, they’re doing all this on the advice of their “expert” realtor. Me? I’d just price it accordingly…meaning minus A/C, downgraded baths, etc. Ridiculous. ”
The reality (at least for the present) is most buyers are above looking at a home that needs some upgrades no matter how low the price…..especially in areas where you can pick up a new home for $200s and $300s.
“P.P.S. - don’t forget to feed the squirrels…”
I’d make the sellers EAT the squirrels.
Penn-
I’m right here…what’s cookin’?
Univ. NH study says 24 thru 34 year olds bailin’ MA in droves.
Nobody gonna be left to pay all those big state pensions.
not much cookin’
I saw that study on 24 - 34 year olds…I suspect that once the relationship between housing and incomes gets back in line, that many people will stay here. I am not saying that MASS is special and different, but I think it does have a lot to offer. I don’t see it becoming a ghost town. I think the colleges, universities and hospitals will help alot. I don’t see 200 years of existence totally swirling down the drain.
any insight into the North Shore market?
I think we getting to where we need to be, but I don’t see a greater than 15% drop from where we are now, except on the most grossly unrealistically priced properties.
I am not saying that MASS is special and different, but I think it does have a lot to offer. I don’t see it becoming a ghost town. I think the colleges, universities and hospitals will help alot. I don’t see 200 years of existence totally swirling down the drain.
Boston and its surroundings inside the 495 loop will do OK. Rest of the state is SOL.
I left Boston 3 years ago, and I was in the 24-34 age bracket at the time. Do I miss MA? Definitely. Will I come back? Not unless housing costs come back down to earth.
Pen — good luck to you, re that forecast. Without mal intent, I think it is pretty optimistic. We used to have a bull poster here with the screen name of Homeowner_MA. I really enjoyed engaging him. He was from Boston and was convinced that Boston prices would not fall. It’s been a long time since we’ve heard from him, as is typical when bulls meet reality. Though you’re likely not a bull, I suspect you’re unduly optimistic about your market. I think that a greater than 15% drop there is *very* possible, but it’s just my opinion.
As you say, though, Boston is unlikely to become a ghost town in any event.
Hi Chip,
Thanks for not flaming me…
Comments below are specific to SF homes. I think condos are going to be toast. Too much high quality rentals coming on line to make the rent/buy comparision favor buying.
I agree that a greater than 15% drop is very possible on many properties, but I truly feel that quality properties with 15 miles of so of Boston, probably will not drop by much more than that. (notice the feel, probably and by much more as qualifiers).
What I am saying, is that I don’t think we are see the sort of drops that FL, CA and many of the other bubble markets saw (not that Boston isn’t bubbly itself, it is).
As for being an RE bull, I am very far from that, but I think even buyers have to be realistic when it their wishing price. I would like it more that anyone else on the planet, to see prices here drop by 50%, but I just don’t see it.
I think we will settle in at a median home price of 3.5 times the twice the median income. median income ~ 50K times 2 people working = 100k = 350,000 median home price. I don’t we are very far from there.
I don’t think we will ever get back to 3x a single income, because that would be 150,000 and I just don’t see that.
I didn’t see mortgages getting to 10X income in the year 2002 either. The longer I live, the more I “see” in the economics terms such as oil going from $12 a barrel in 1985 to $70 21 years later. Pen, I bet you will be astonished at the reduction in prices.
That’s why I’ve been seeing a lot of engineering jobs advertised in MA. It seems eng jobs I am looking at are mostly located in areas too expensive to move to. Companies like to hire eng talent young too. Connection?
what type of engineering?
software, civil, electrical?
Well, both chem eng and comp sci. I search under medical devices, C#, or industrial controls also. There are many things advertised on the jobs boards actually. But doing a nationwide search, I have noticed that the higher concentrations of job offers are in high priced real estate areas. Not big surprise to many here.
As an example, I started out in Reno and it was very hard to find an eng job there that paid well. I have noticed however, that as Reno experienced the bubble, the number of software/engineering jobs advertised in Reno increased greatly. I believe the housing prices were the cause, by excluding people who woul ordinarily consider re-locating there. I was just wondering what other observations people of this board might have…
I work for a company in Reno that employs many engineers - as a growing company the need for more engineers went up, but the pay didn’t go up with the bubble. Many of our current employees in the higher paying salary positions have relocated here from the Bay Area. The salary isn’t equal to what it would have been there, but 2 years ago you could easily sell your house there, move here, take a lower paying job, and still easily come out ahead. Now, I think that the dependency in the housing market on people moving here in order to move inventory is going to bite the market in its butt.
“I believe the housing prices were the cause, by excluding people who woul[d] ordinarily consider re-locating there.”
STL — good observation, apparently confirmed by Reno Girl. I envy those modern-day whiz-kids who have skills that do not require a particular location. They likely will live better than any of us regular mortals.
One area that looked good for software engineers up till about a year ago from a cost of living / good jobs standpoint was Cary, NC (Near Rahleigh). We gave it some thought at one point. Today it seems priced out like many areas and could be due for a downward adjustment…
“Univ. NH study says 24 thru 34 year olds bailin’ MA in droves.”
Same in CNY, where they all goin? I have to say living among too large a proportion of the ready to retire folks is BORING, and the lack of creativity is stagnating. Folks hanging on white knuckle to what they own and what they feel is theirs chokes out any chance of growth.
So where is the creative class heading to?
Fookin’ comes from Northern England (eg/ Yorkshire) accent when they say…
“Betting their luck will hold, a Cape Coral couple hope to beat a soft real estate market by selling their home at auction. ‘We really don’t have to sell, but we decided to change our lifestyle and say goodbye to Florida,’ Ginnie Ward said
Ah, the capricious nature of current home “owners”. They don’t NEED to sell, hell, they just WANT to?
More from article (my eyes! my eyes!!):
“This sale has taken on more of the tone of an adventure than a home sale,” David Ward said. “We expect Saturday’s bidding to be exciting.”
The Wards would not say how low a bid they would accept for their 1,984 square-foot home. Any bid can be made, but the seller will privately lock in a reserve bid that must be met. The auctioneer also knows that bid.
“Let’s just say it listed at $849,900,” David Ward said.”
This guy thinks he’s a pirate. With a sense of adventure.
“The Miloff Aubuchon Realty Group Inc. decision to have a 120-property auction today and Saturday at Crowne Plaza/Holiday Inn Select at Bell Tower appealed to the couple’s sense that a nontraditional sale would spur interest in the market.”
If anyone is in that area try to keep a look out for the results of the auction. Love to see a follow up on the auction results although I am expecting another blow up similar to the Naples fiasco.
As for 777 Coral Cables, “Let’s just say askin ain’t gettin and we find out the gettin tommorrow.”
“Let’s just say it listed at $849,900,” David Ward said.”
Lets just say you’re going to get bids for a whole lot less Sparky.
He may think he’s a pirate but he’s trying to make out like a bandit! Zillow shows the last sale was 02/02/2001 for $375,000. He’s hoping there’s a $500,000 gain in that treasure chest!
Many of these homes need a 50% cut to get back to reality. For this one that actually comes to $375K off from $850K.
2001 price add appreciation of 4.5% YoY up to 2007. I would say 450K is the bid.
$275 tops, given the hurricane insurance and tax premium. Those boomer’s can keep the place and die in it for all I care. Gives a whole new meaning to the saying, Let them rot.
He’s 69. Way too old to be a boomer.
The first day of the auction didn’t go so well. Many, many bids came in way lower than sellers wanted. Most of the first-day stuff was commercial and undeveloped land lots. The SFH auction comes tomorrow.
Here’s a link.
http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070119/RE/70119032/1075
Good stuff.
“Jeff Miloff said the goal of the auction was to get bids on all the properties and take them to the seller. They did that and now the bids are on the table and it is up to the seller to accept or reject.
Others, such as Rick Rosato, said the bids were so low and unrealistic that he as a buyer knew they would be rejected. He decided not to bid.”
the bid = reality
if you have more than 3 or 4 bidders that’s all you’re going to get
Ok, this MUST be the sign of the times! Has anyone found a flyer stuck on their car windshield advertising an open house for real estate???
I park my car in a parking garage, and this flyer was for a couple of condo units a few blocks away from my office building. I drove through the complex and a BUTT LOAD of units are on the market, and they are still finishing up more units!
The air is saturated with desperation.
“The air is saturated with desperation.”
…soon to be depression and depreciation..
and persperation!
“Bet” Equity will be replaced by the tried and true Sweat Equity.
“BET Equity”. BRILLIANT, Chip. One of the best humorous bubble terms I’ve seen. Maybe THE best. It just says it all. LMAO!
and persperation
LMAO…Think I’ll buy some Gillette stock…
Right Guard for the persperation
and
Sensor Mach IIIs to shave the prices…
and…
Duracells for when the lights go out…
We ask: Who is buying those $400,000 condos in Uptown and those $900,000 condos downtown? What do they do for a living?
Exactly. Plus, it seems to me there are a LOT of single people in Chicago (I lived there for 7 years). So we’re talking about “affording” these condos on ONE salary! No way.
A friend of mine who I think makes a pretty decent salary out there bought a Rogers Park condo (converted building) maybe 4-1/2 years ago for $160K and THAT was a huge leap for her. Again, we’re talking on a decent salary (~$60K at the time). No way could she afford the asking prices now.
Thats todays dirty little secret - none of us can, and those who try will end up in bad shape.
i feel the same way regarding affordablity, i wll not try to keep up with the jones’, looking forward to tonights 20/20
about debt in america (it should be at least a three part series lol) and they will also discuss cyberbegging,
this country is going to hell in a handbasket
i will wait as long as i have to, i will not be a gf or fb
mgnyc,
Brilliant. “Cyberbegging”, a whole new level of self humiliation, for the technologically advanced. I love it!
~$150k income in Chicago and I feel priced out - way out
Reminder: Rogers Park sucks.
Not if you’re a drug dealer.
I want to know what is going to happen at the Briney Breezes trailer park in Florida. One of the ladies I play golf with has a son that owns one of the trailers. When I told her the $510 million dollar deal may not go through she said “of course it will go through it was in the PAPER” OK but the article said that the owners of the trailers will not get any money until 2009. Alot can happen in two years. Any thoughts?
I think that there are many ways the corporation buyer can get out of the deal, if it chooses to do so. Frankly, I can’t imagine a scenario in which they will go through with it, given what is happening to the Florida condo market in general. This happens frequently — greed and intransigence, on the part of the sellers, take the place of common sense. It took way too long to wrap up this deal.
My bet is that the Briney Breezes trailers will still be there in 2009 and beyond, unless a storm or the insurance companies get them first. There is too much uncertainty, about the near-future prospects of coastal building in Florida, for the project to remain viable.
those idiot’s in florida waited too long for the deal to be approved, i strongly doubt it ever really goes through
the fact that they even had to debate the issue just shows
you how stupid some people and greedy some people can be
1 million for a f***** trailer? wtf were they waiting for?
They probably voted on it using paper ballots. You know how confusing that can be for Floridiots.
Friends of mine in Hartford CT were CERTAIN the NE Patriots would move down there…….
Deals that everyone can see don’t make sense USUALLY don’t get done. Nothing till 09? Riiiiiiiight!
“At least a third of condos and houses on the market in Calgary are vacant”
At least 1/2 of the houses for sale here on the central coast are vacant…at least at the house showings I’ve seen.
Three reasons:
1. Owners have already moved to another house, and are carrying two mortgages.
2. The owner has died, and the house has been on the market for a while.
3. Flipper owned dwelling (FOD) without staging.
For a while last year, most vacants were FODs, now it’s mostly dead people (estate sale) and dual mortgage holders.
I was shocked to see Russ Winter’s recent posting that suggested over 1/2 of Dec 06 San Diego home sales were vacant. It sounds like the market is pretty “flipped out.”
Stucco:
Some day…. I’m hoping to move back to NE where I grew up.
Lately I’ve noticed, rather suddenly that many of the listings in my price range (I’m cheap) on realtor.com are empty. It struck me given your recent mention of RW’s post.
I’m specifically looking in Portland ME and/or Southern NH.
Anyone else notice lots of empty listings in their area?
Huge numbers of empty listings in both Washington and Nevada. A major segment of the market the past few years has been move up buyers turned speculators who bought first with false expectations that their current place would sell easily, and at their much needed price. Now they are bleeding cash, frozen in fear, praying for a market turnaround, as their future plans did not include drastically reducing the price on their original home. Oops!
Last night my wife and I went on a Spot Light Home Tour which is basically a mass open house for a few towns on 1 night. The spot light out front of the house lights the for sale sign at night so you know it is one of the homes that is open. Anyway, we went to 5 random homes in our neighborhood, 4 of them were empty. SCARY!
In Boston prices are down 20% from peak. Now peak was REALLY stupid and prices have more downside the question is how rapidly then next 15-20% will get plugged in (not whether).
ME and NH? My bet is that it is VERY soft. I’d make bids 40% below offering and wait for people to come back to me. When NO ONE bids they’ll look you up….trust me (happened in 90 under less arduous conditions).
“Three experts, speaking to the Frederick County Builders Association, said the housing slump isn’t over. Wayne Six, a Frederick appraiser, said the inventory of homes, now at 1,500, will most likely climb to 2,200. ‘We knew it was coming. The market could not keep up with prices going up at 20 percent or more. It had to stop somewhere. Housing priced itself out of the market.’”
Flippers and subprime borrowers did not drive up prices through the roof — housing itself drove up prices.
“Real estate expert Jeffrey Otteau told conference attendees that the widely forecast crash following the recent housing market bubble might not happen. ‘It’s beginning to look like this will be a correction and not a crash,’ said Otteau, president of the Otteau Appraisal Group of East Brunswick.”
Seven year correction = slow ride to the bottom of the world’s tallest roller coaster.
‘Slow ride, take it easy - Slow ride, take it easy,
Slow ride, take it easy - Slow ride, take it easy.
I’m in the mood, the rhythm is right,
Move to the music, we can roll all night.
Oooh, oooh, slow ride - oooh, oooh …
Slow ride, take it easy
Slow ride, take it easy’
Too funny. I heard an interview with one of the band members of Foghat on the radio and he said almost all their songs were about sex…
“Betting their luck will hold, a Cape Coral couple hope to beat a soft real estate market by selling their home at auction. ‘We really don’t have to sell, but we decided to change our lifestyle and say goodbye to Florida,’ Ginnie Ward said
Nope, you DON’T have to sell Ginnie, But you want want to get out of DODGE CITY in a Hurry !
Yup — they are sweating bullets in their desire to make a fantastic profit on the house. I think that reserve-price auctions are the kiss of death here in Florida in this market. Hopefully Ben or another poster will have the results here for us to peruse. I’ll be curious to see the maximum bid on this house. Would be surprised if it’s much over $300K and I would not pay that for it today, as it appears not to be on the water.
Read about IRVINE, CALIFORNIA HOME PROPERTY w/ ps3, wii, xbox 360.
I’ve noticed the the OC Register default notices have quadupled. Condols in Anaheim that were for sale are now for rent. Rental properties prices and coming down (slightly).
Happy Friday.
just out of curiosity…
Has anyone seen a property recently that they are even remotely considering pursuing?
If so, what is your region/location?
Me…I am starting to see some intersting things with 2001/2002 like prices north of Boston, MA
Not here in L.A. yet. There are some “lower priced” listings relative to last year, still nuts though. I looked at a cool fixer (wreck) craftsmen (1917) house recently. Potentially a nice place, but it’d probably cost about 75-100k just to make it liveable (it hasn’t been occupied in a couple years, or remodeled since, oh…1940 hehe). All for a bargain price of just under 900k! So, to sum up… gonna be a while here
ditto in the Westside, plysat. Last Sunday I dropped into a FSBO a couple of blocks away from me. Nice street, but the house backed into a tall building on Beverly Glen (a big no-no for me). The house was built in 1994 and really, really ugly (all carpets, vinyl in the kitchen, no character). I could not find one redeeming feature for it. You guys wanna guess the asking price?
Oh, at *least* a million. It’s the westside! Buy it before the price goes up!
If I remember correctly, it was listed at 1.375M (it might have been more, but I just kind of blanched)
wait… 1 mil would be a fixer… 1.5? hehe
I’ve gone from not being able to buy anything I like (literaly, ghetto only), to finding a few places I could settle for..
I’m waiting for a place I can love. Prices are still over 10X income here in the South bay. With the quanity of mansions under construction… I’ll wait for the market to be pushed down from the top.
Notice I didn’t say McMansions… 
These are the real deal. (No, I don’t want one… I just want them to be discounted so my competition is out of the market before I buy.)
Neil
hehe… I’m with you. I’m encouraging people, who think these
%10 (or less) lower prices are bargains, to buy! That way, when I’m ready, there will be way less competition for the (hopefully) *really* low priced deals. Everyone will have bought, except for the people who read and post here! Of course, we will then have to bid against each other for the 1 *really* nice place (out of 50,000+ on the mkt)
plysat, wouldn’t that be nice, we would be in the papers, for starting the first bidding war of the next bubble :-), but we would have bought at the real bottom…
rotfl
More likely, we’d just do “paper scissors rock” to see who could bid on that one and the other two would move on to one of the other thousands on the market.
Patience… lots of patience.
Got popcorn?
Neil
I do see price reductions in the over $500k ranges…..outside Syracuse, NY. Lots of Skaneateles reductions on CNY homes this morning which is probably the most expensive community in this area. Manlius has lots of reductions too across a range in pricing but then again they have experienced much more of a building boom than most. Lysander which has experienced, imo, the craziest rate of building doesn’t seem to be in pain yet. What is it about that town? Tax rates are nuts there too.
Spec homes in my town (considered the boonies by many) have been available for over 6 mos and are being reduced. Funny, on a local blog, 2 different posters announced they were moving here from other parts of the country. There are only 8k people in the whole town. The place feels relatively undiscovered so 2 in one week seemed like a big deal. Wondered if they were posters or lurkers here. They were moving from NV and Ohio.
Housing priced itself out of the market.
and now it is beginning to price itself back in. Should be done in about 5 years.
Some are getting the message.
http://www.seacoastonline.com/news/01192007/business-b-housing.forecast.html
The Frederick County newspaper referenced by Ben is from Frederick County Maryland. Frederick County VA is the Winchester, VA area which has certainly also been slow.
It seems like Northern VA got hit a bit harder at first than the Maryland counties such as PG County, but as of a few months ago they caught up to the bursting bubble.
Anyway, it was interesting to see a FLOOD of new listings in Northern VA just today. It will be even more fun to watch and see if buyers can keep up.
Equibanc is no more:
http://bakersfieldbubble.blogspot.com
The winds of change, they are a blowing
are we back up to one a day for mort co explosions
Has anyone done this type of analysis for any US market?
Interesting study. Wish the time frame was larger than just a couple years.
“Time will tell whether buyers come knocking.”
No, prices will do the determining. Who in their right mind would buy a depreciating asset that is over-priced?
“Sellers, the three experts said, have to realize the change in the market and come down on prices. Six used several examples where some large homes were on the market for as much as $100,000 less than what was paid for them less than two years ago.”
Oh no you don’t. You so called experts are restricted to saying, “Price it right”. I will have no more of this “come down on price” talk. You got that?
Dutch housing bubble update:
yesterday both the Dutch banks and the biggest association of homeowners criticized the new starter loans that are getting extremely popular in many parts of the country (they were introduced in my area, about a year ago). These starter loans provide free loans to starters (first home buyers, usually under 30-35 years and with some kind of family or job connection to the local market). The loans are free in the sense that they are interest-free for several years and the homeowner only has to pay back the principal if he can sell his home with a gain. The loans are usually in the 25-50K euro range, or 15-30% of the price of a Dutch ’starter home’.
The organisations above state that instead of making it easier for starters to buy a home, they make it more difficult (except for the lucky few who get in). It is clear that these loans are ramping up prices in the Netherlands (probably the only remaining factor that is propping up the housing market). Unfortunately they are extremely popular with local politicians who often are the ones who make the real money on these deals (because they or their friends own multiple ’starter homes’ that magically increase in value after such starter loans are authorized for the area). Also, starter loans are very popular with the political parties that will make up the new government (nothing better for reelection than giving away free government money, isn’t it?) so instead of less starter loans there will probably be even more starter loans in the future, and again higher home prices
I’m still a bit surprised that the banks don’t like these loans, because effectively it’s a free government guarantee on all their outstanding RE loans. But maybe they see it as kind of competition to their own mortgage business?
and another Dutch bubble note:
according to the ‘Kadaster’ that tracks all Dutch home sales, prices in the Netherlands increased 6% in 2006 compared to the end of the previous year, and number of transactions increased by 1.5%. In december 2006 prices increased 0.8% on a monthly basis (annualized that would be +10%). Part of the price increase comes probably from a shift in sales numbers towards more expensive properties; just like in the UK and US, the gap between haves and have-nots is widening quickly in the Netherlands. On the other side, historical data shows that the Kadaster numbers heavily underestimate price increases for individual homes, so it could be that the real increases were even higher. It certainly shows that the housing bubble in Europe is still alive and kicking!
OT: who will buy all the stock of the recently LBO’ed companies in 08 or 09 ?
avis and other way overlevereged deals
not I
The Idaho report had another article linked. About a county “planner” moonlighting for another county who resigned after questions were raised about the scope of the work for the other county. This guy is a 20 year CA veteran who has apparently been writing clauses into laws requiring use of experienced “planners” during development. Guess the time is right now to go into consulting
The headline of this thread is one of the best ones I’ve ever heard in my 2 years of bubblesitting.