“Another Sign Of A Slow Housing Market” In California
The Record Searchlight reports from California. “It’s never happened before, at least in this magnitude, says Redding permit supervisor Wayne Gungl. Palomar Builders Inc. received a refund on about 30 single-family home permits it took out last January. The 30 homes made up nearly half of the 66 permits Palomar pulled in January 2006.”
“2006 was already a lean year for single-family home permits in Redding. The city issued 287, make that 257. That’s the lowest total since the city started keeping electronic records in 1990. It’s another sign of a slow housing market. Palomar got its money back because it has decided not build the homes at this time, Gungl said.”
The Voice of San Diego. “With more than 10,000 new homes built in San Diego County last year, marketers know they have to work hard to set their houses apart from the pack. Sometimes, they work a little too hard.”
“‘Just around the corner from a variety of shops, cafes, tennis courts … and the chic La Mesa downtown atmosphere,’ the release says about Belvedere, a series of row homes near 73rd Street in La Mesa.”
“But the chic La Mesa downtown atmosphere? ‘I wouldn’t use the word ‘chic’ to talk about La Mesa’s downtown, no,’ said La Mesa resident Sybil Wille. ‘Quaint, maybe.’”
“If ‘chic’ is in the eye of the beholder, Belvedere marketer Julia Simms is one of the only such beholders. Maybe, Simms said, the ‘chic’ designation will not only draw new residents but prove a self-fulfilling prophecy for the neighborhood.”
“Leslie Wade, principal of public relations firm Wade Communications, said it’s common for marketers to write their advertisements based on what the community could look like in a few years, rather than its current appearance. Even with the marketers’ dreams coming true, there’s some stretching that goes on, Wade said.”
“‘[The marketers] create images of things that aren’t reality yet,’ she said. ‘It may seem like the tail wagging the dog. But generally, these developers are following along with a message they’ve heard from the city.’”
“Simms agreed the market often dictates how a marketing company does its work, most notably, spending more time identifying a target market. ‘Should we be doing a postcard campaign or should we be handing out fliers at the ballpark?’ she said. ‘In a frenzied market, you don’t need to spend that much time. People just come in and buy a house.’”
The North County Times. “As the investigation continued Monday into the huge blaze that burned The Paramount condominium project in Escondido last week, officials were not releasing any hint of what caused the fire.”
“The $6.6 million project between Centre City Parkway and Escondido Boulevard is a significant piece of the downtown area’s revitalization plans. Texas-based developer D.R. Horton, Inc., has not publicly said yet whether it will rebuild.”
“‘They were just talking (Friday) about they would like to build again,’ said Escondido Mayor Lori Holt Pfeiler. ‘They just don’t have the timing yet.’”
“There also has been a lot more action and people at the condo site since the blaze than she has seen recently, Crown Books manager Miriam Ruvinskis said. ‘The construction was so slow,’ said Ruvinskis. ‘Lately it was very, very slow. You got used to it. You just see the buildings there, no people.’”
“Foreclosure activity in Riverside County continued to rise sharply in the last three months of 2006, reflecting overstretched buyers and flattening real estate values, according to a research firm.”
“Lenders sent out 5,329 notices of default to home buyers who had fallen behind on their mortgages, up from 1,835 in the fourth quarter of 2005. The notices of default sent out in the fourth quarter include several dozen that went to participants in an unusual real estate investment group centered in Murrieta, according to signed declarations filed last week as part of a civil lawsuit.”
“The plaintiffs allege that a Murrieta mortgage brokerage suckered them into buying multiple homes with inflated mortgages and then pocketed the difference in cash, in some cases about 20 percent of the legitimate value of the homes, according to court documents.”
“The suit names 11 plaintiffs who said they each bought between two and 10 homes under the arrangement. Many of the plaintiffs have defaulted on multiple mortgages.”
The Press Telegram. “When talking on the phone with Tom Pool you can almost envision some spooked character in a B-movie waiting out a zombie invasion in a boarded house. ‘Our licensee population is still going up, even though we’re in a transitioning market,’ the California Department of Real Estate spokesman said.”
“It may sound ghastly, but for the last year people continued to mob the real estate industry despite the market downturn. About one in 70 Californians is now a licensed Realtor. As of December there were more than 521,000 licensed Realtors in California, according to the DRE, which issues licenses.”
“That’s an all-time high. The previous high was during the end of the last real estate boom in the early 1990s, when there were 375,000 licensed agents in California.”
“The number of Californians with a real estate license would fill Joe Robbie Stadium in Miami where Super Bowl XLI is being played next month - seven times. There are more licensed Realtors in California than the population of Long Beach, the state’s fifth-largest city.”
“Pool was not completely bewildered by the licensee phenomenon. One reason the ranks of the licensed continue to swell may be that many people had already began the process of earning a license during the booming market, and despite the turn they stuck with the program, Pool said.”
“‘People put effort into getting a license, even though the market’s turning - they kind of see it through,’ Pool said.”
‘Property owners would be held responsible for cleaning up graffiti on their properties under a ordinance set for review tonight by the Lancaster City Council.’
‘Merced County’s unemployment rate crept upward last month, landing at 9.6 percent in December, according to new figures released by the state’s Employment Development Department. ‘It’s partly due to the ag workers being laid off, and construction is slowing due to the inclement weather,’ said Nannette Potter, a labor market consultant with the Employment Development Department.’
‘The county’s unemployment rate ranks fourth highest among California’s 58 counties. Colusa County’s December unemployment rate was 14.8 percent, Imperial County’s was 14.5 percent, and Tulare County’s was 9.9 percent, Baker said.’
“In one case, deputies arrested four teenage boys believed responsible for a three-week graffiti vandalism spree in October estimated to have caused $10,000 in damages.”
The welcoming committee for all the newly minted landlords.
“The welcoming committee for all the newly minted landlords”.
Priceless
Priceless.
For everything else…HELOC
Don’t forget to check for gifts left in the large white buckets while the water was turned off.
imploder posts ” The welcoming committee for all the newly minted landlords.”
LOL…LOL….yes indeed! Just wait these brand new “Burbs” will get the delux treatmemt before it is over. Just wait until the long suffering home owners take the long comute to work and come home to see all of thier things stolen!
In Palmcaster the gangs wait untill the wage-slaves leave to go to work then they steal everything that is not nailed down…. then drink all of your booze and piss on the floor and call it a day. It kinda’ makes it all worth while……LOL….LOL….
Speaking of graffiti I was at the construction site of the new High school almost built at Wilshire and Bixel just west of Dwtn LA. All the big signs posted along the chain link fence saying no trespassing,keep out,property of LAUSD were completely spray painted by the local neighborhood welcoming committees. That new high school built in pico-union district is a big bullseye for vandalism, graffiti, and gang activity, in one of the nastiest filthy immigrant slum sections of LA.
“‘Merced County’s unemployment rate crept upward last month, landing at 9.6 percent in December…Colusa County’s December unemployment rate was 14.8 percent, Imperial County’s was 14.5 percent, and Tulare County’s was 9.9 percent, Baker said.’”
Holy crap! Those are some serious numbers. But they will have no bearing on housing prices of course. After all, real estate only goes up, so you better buy now or be priced out forever (gag).
The ‘normal’ unemployment rate for Merced County is 14%+/- for this time of year. These are due to ag layoffs in the winter. The recent 7 to 8% numbers (now creeping up) are due purely to the housing bubble (maybe 2/3) and a new university. New houses as far as the eye can see - at 10 to 12x wages. There is no bottom here.
Inclement weather? What the heck is she talking about? We’ve had four rainy days in the last 2 months out here! Ack!
Probably talking about the freezing nights. Many growers are writing off their whole crop.
“Property owners would be held responsible for cleaning up graffiti on their properties under a ordinance set for review tonight by the Lancaster City Council.”
What if there simply isn’t a property owner? As in - the house never sold, and the builder who built and owned it went bankrupt? Is that new business for banks - graffiti cleaning? I can see it now - “Welcome to the firm, Jim. Since your our newbie we’ll start you out on some entry level work - here’s some bleach and a wire brush”.
Never understood why we don’t shackle up the grafitti punks and force them to use their toothbrushes to clean up their mess. Ought to keep them locked up (or shackled to a tree overnight) until they clean every speck of grafitti in a given area.
Things would clean up real fast that way, IMHO.
For some reason, vandalism really gets to me.
CA Renter: “Things would clean up real fast that way, IMHO.”
um, yeah they would. But let’s roll down that slope a bit further…
…you know, if the punishment for jaywalking was the DEATH PENALTY…why, the crosswalks would all be full! Think of the Law and Order we’ll all enjoy then. And as long as you stay ‘between the lines,’ you’ll have nothing to fear, Citizen…
BIG difference between jaywalking and causing intentional harm to innocent people and their property.
I am actually fairly lenient regarding certain crimes — opposed to jailing drug offenders, etc. — but where vicious crimes against innocent people are concerned (and vandalism is vicious, IMHO), we need to put an end to it ASAP. Otherwise, it gets out of control and starts to snowball.
No mercy for the maggots.
Better to jail drug offenders. Let’s see a $500 a week drug problem - no job. Hmmm…. how have they been getting that money for the fix?
“plaintiffs allege that a Murrieta mortgage brokerage suckered them into buying multiple homes with inflated mortgages and then pocketed the difference in cash”
I just heard about this goin’ on in Arizona, but Gosh!… You mean they do that in California too?
plaintiffs allege that a Murrieta mortgage brokerage suckered them into buying multiple homes….
OMG. These poor platiffs are victims! All their mortgage debt should be forgiven immediately and the State of California should reimburse them their downpayments!
Don’t forget to also give them free complimentary housing.
Meet your new roommate: Bubba.
Don’t touch me — I’m Bubba’s bitch!
Downpayments? We don’t do no stinking downpayment!
Downpayments are for renters…..
Dan posts ” Downpayments? We don’t do no stinking downpayment!”
Very funny! One of the best movie lines…LOL…LOL…
MB to future ‘victim’ plaintiff: hey better yet, why don’t you buy 2 houses. i mean, you STILL don’t have to put any money down, and you get everything double. worse case, if you ever need some money, you can always sell one of those puppies … or better yet, just rent it out … look, i’ll just put here on your app that you make $150,000/year as a landscaper. no better yet, as a landscape architect … how does that sound?
“The number of Californians with a real estate license would fill Joe Robbie Stadium in Miami where Super Bowl XLI is being played next month - seven times. There are more licensed Realtors in California than the population of Long Beach, the state’s fifth-largest city.”
Real Estate licences in Cal are like bums………..everybody has one.
If the alternative was paying a $60K Realtor’s commission, I might be tempted to join the herd…
How much does it cost?
comes as free gift in Cracker Jack Box
Well, there’s that grueling RE examination to pass, and a brand new volcabulary to learn! But just think how proud you’ll be. You can be the life of any party!
Footie, in America a “bum” pushes a shopping cart and asks for spare change. Not everybody has one. (slavery was abolished, what with the civil war and all.)
Are you sure you didn’t mean an A$$hole?
imploder………
In Australia, ya bum is what you sit on………..as I understand it in the states you guys call it ya fanny………..now in Australia the word fanny has a somewhat different meaning………hehehe
if it can “fart” it qualifies I guess… but technically only 50% correct due to psychological demographics…..
More realtors in California than there are people in Wyoming:
CA realtors 521,000+
WY residents 509,294 (US census bureau esp for 2005)
I hear tell …
Just how big is the entire mortgage fraud phenomenon? Billions? Hundreds of billions? Bigger?
Obviously BILLIONS. They fraud case in North County is close to $1 billion by itself.
emcee posts “Just how big is the entire mortgage fraud”
How much do you got?
AE Newman posts…….
How much do you got?
Do you mean “garote”
Trillion+
At least 30% of todays sales in CA have some element of fraud (overstated incomes etc.).
I would guess (from those coming to light now) that in the last 18 months as much as 10% have been serious intentional fraud (ie. cash back to buyers that never make a payment).
The biggest problem is that those big intentonal frauds were used as comps that set values (for those stupid enough to buy) for the FBs. I would guess that the last 1.5-2.5 years of appreciation have fraud to blaim.
We will have to get back to 01′or 02′ prices before It would make any sense for buyers. The prize to those that wait is that the pendulum will swing as far under value as it did to overvalues.
I would like it explained to me how you can sue someone in a civil case for an activity that is illegal (mortgage fraud.) Maybe when criminal charges are filed against these “plaintiffs”, it will stop this civil case.
Where’s the problem? See it for a moment separated from housing or any specific field: If your property was damaged by the criminal activities of a third party, you would sue the party in civil court (if you suspect that they have money to pay your claim against them). It might be wise to first let the criminal case be decided, to make your claim stronger, but the sooner you sue, the faster you could get compensated and the less time the defendants have to hide their assets.
“2006 was already a lean year for single-family home permits in Redding. The city issued 287, make that 257. That’s the lowest total since the city started keeping electronic records in 1990. It’s another sign of a slow housing market. Palomar got its money back because it has decided not build the homes at this time, Gungl said.”
It’s another sign the future demand has been cannibalized.
“Lenders sent out 5,329 notices of default to home buyers who had fallen behind on their mortgages, up from 1,835 in the fourth quarter of 2005.
Just wait. You ain’t seen nuttin, yet! This number will pale in another year and many parts of the country are going to see these kinds of numbers, as well.
From the article…
“Lenders sent out 5,329 notices of default to home buyers who had fallen behind on their mortgages, up from 1,835 in the fourth quarter of 2005, according to data from Irvine-based RealtyTrac.
The numbers have risen above historical averages but aren’t cause for alarm, said Rick Sharga, vice president for marketing at the company. ”
No cause for alarm Everything’s just fine here in Riverside. Move along now…
I’m not alarmed. Amused maybe, but not alarmed. I’m guessing no one on this blog is alarmed.
I wish I did that interview.
I would have said, “Didn’t you hear it? The alarm sounded in 2005. You’re only smelling the smoke now. By 2008 the fire will have consumed the entire RE market”
I’m alarmed implosion because the aftermath of a mania isn’t any fun . Plus , the information that comes out day after day confirms that this housing bubble was as bad as the worst projections have been about it .
Wizard,
I wish I could disagree with you. The latest news is only making me more bearish…
Neil
HW, the projections are optimistic. It will be worse - many 10s of billions of detected fraud imo. Large amounts will remain undetected.
I’m a cynic so I’m neither alarmed nor surprised by any of this behavior. Goes with the territory. I owned 6 rental properties for a handful of years near the Univ of NM in Albuquerque (owned being a key word). I had generally good tenants, most were nice students and responsible. Of course I had a few losers and pains in the ass, but nothing too bad.
In addition to the normal stuff like broken water heaters, stoves, swamp coolers, bathroom clogs, furnaces, roofs, windows, and several trips by roto-rooter for the girls from Europe who thought the toilet, as opposed to the trash can, was for their sanitary waste - I also saw my share of criminal behavior by deadbeats, lowlifes and scumbags.
They were the druggies and gangbangers that roamed the area where my properties were. They didn’t live there. Every property was broken into at least once. Had the pantysniffer break into the house of 3 college girls I rented to. Street barricade tossed through the plate glass window. A couple of cops were shot and killed a block away by a mental defective (really, judged incompetent to stand trial and killed 3 others as well). Grafitti numerous times on the exterior walls of a house and some units which was repainted, without permission, by the city with a mismatched color paint as part of community service as punishment to the taggers. I think you get the idea.
Point being, criminal behavior is part of life, like terrorism. To think that it will be eliminated is just not realistic. It’s frightening, causes very real damage, and is sometimes deadly. Unfortunately, it’s here to stay just like natural disasters. About the best you can do is to minimize your exposure. Note that while I can accept this fact by and large, that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t like to see some of the DBs that f*cked with my property in one of the SAW movies.
My amusement stems from the fact that people would actually, really and truly, be alarmed or surprised by the frequency or magnitude of any of this unethical or criminal behavior accompanying this housing bubble. Is this the first time any of this has happened in the US?
As for most everyone having to pick up part of the tab for this clusterf*ck in some form or another at some point, well that’s pretty much a given imo. Again, the best you can do is to minimize your exposure.
On a more positive note, financial responsibility does not seem to correlate with age in my experience. I would trust some of those 21 year old kids with my money and property before I’d trust some of the spendthrift losers I know who are my age.
But implosion ,the current housing bubble can be put on the same level as margin buying leading up to the stock market crash of 1929 . Look at what happen to Florida RE crash in 1926 ( similar market, alot of speculation ,margin buying and fraud ).
A regular person can minimize their exposure ,perhaps ,but the banks and lenders MBS holders etc. are already exposed and at risk because of this bubble ,big time .
Sure criminal behavior is part of life ,but this massive of exposure or risk of a housing crash that could hurt the financial markets to this extent is alarming .
Everyday I find out more information that confirms my worst fears that those crazy madhatter lenders were making any loan ,using people’s hard earned money .
The problem has to be addressed now ,and I’m all for lenders pulling back until the appraisal data banks can be stricken of sub-prime loans and fraudulent inflated appraisals . Lenders should back off on the low down loans etc. until this mess can be sorted out .
Meanwhile , the dishonest NAR continues to lie to the public about what the real problems are and have to nerve to say “Time2Buy “.
My point is that sure I have seen alot of evil in my lifetime also because I’m old ,but when it reaches the point where it’s on this massive of a scale ,something has to be done .
Also , you can’t stop some crimes . Regarding loan fraud , this is something that could of been prevented had the lenders just did their job . The mania inflated market could not of gone as far as it did had the lenders made low risk loans as they are suppose to .
The way lenders use to underwrite loans prevented fraud and the unqualified from getting loans . Of course the criminals would come out in droves with this easy money sub-prime lending . You can’t make loans the way lenders have been lately , and it’s never been possible because of human nature .
Look, just because the interest rates were lower didn’t mean the lenders should of stopped normal prudent underwriting . It would of reached a point where affordability would of stopped the market from inflating years ago .
I agree with you HW. I’m not saying don’t do anything to attempt to stop or redress it. Hell, I want to see the IRS collect the $300B Congress claims the Treasury is owed in uncollected taxes.
I rent a room from a friend now. It will be awhile before I own property again. The one large employer town I live in is going through a “transition” period. Nothing will happen before that plays out over the next couple of years. You lose your job here, you’re pretty much history.
BTW, I would own rental properties again, likely an apt complex though. Anything larger than 4 units is a commerical loan. Getting a commercial loan for a 6-plex was night and day different from getting a residential loan on a house.
“‘They were just talking (Friday) about they would like to build again,’ said Escondido Mayor Lori Holt Pfeiler. ‘They just don’t have the timing yet.’”
Give it a decade or so.
“‘The construction was so slow,’ said Ruvinskis. ‘Lately it was very, very slow. ”
That’s some “lucky lightening”…
How slow was the construction?
In the original UT article they said they had been building for 9 months. As far as I could tell from the pictures in the UT, they had only done the foundation and the framing plus maybe raw plywood floors. It was interesting that they estimated the damage to only $6.6M. They’ll have to demolish and rebuild. One would think they’d have to pour a new foundation after a fire like that.
There were supposedly workers on site when the blaze started, so you’d think they could find the cause fast?
Oops, just read the North County times article. So it was only 46 units that went up in flames… The UT said 122. That makes it $6.6M/46 = $147k per unit in damage.
Most likely insurance fraud. That thing didn’t even have drywall up yet, let alone stainless steel appliances or granite counter tops. The most expensive unit was supposed to be sold for $440k (minus $50k in incentives?). The land is still worth the same as before.
Here’s a slideshow for all of you pyromaniacs out there. Quite a bonfire.
http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2007/01/19/slideshow/fire0107/slide/0.txt
Damn!!! That was one Hell of a Fire!!!
I’m wondering if it might be possible to add the one with smoke rising above the sign that reads “New Homes from $399,990″ to Ben’s photo collection. That one is destined to be a Housing Bubble classic.
http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2007/01/19/slideshow/fire0107/slide/107.txt
Fire Sale!
“How slow was the construction?”
“The construction was so slow that a snail was able to catch it, fucck it, and burn it down.”
I sure hope Charles Nelson Reilly had the same answer. Come on, Gene Rayburn, give me the answer. I need the money to pay my #$%ing mortgage.
Construction slow, fast fire=ARSON
$400k for a condo in downtown Escondildo? Are you kidding me. My parents have a nice home in Escondido, and I’ve spent quite a bit of time downtown. In that area, where the bowling ally used to be, leaves a lot to be desired. Its not Compton, but it sure as hell isn’t worth $400k to live there. Maybe the illegals got their revenge for Escondido passing that rental ordinance that bans illegals from renting there.
Of course this is fraud. There are condos in downtown Escondido that sell for $174k, the builder saw gloom ahead, and someone lit a match.
And they had just finished all the fireplaces….timing again!
DR Horton Sup’t to electrician: I know the green is usually the ground, but I want that white wire to be the ground. Be a team player and go attach that white wire on that gas valve!
Total hearsay…but I’ve heard the builder will **not** be rebuilding these condos. Also, it seems some of the construction guys were “working” where they were not supposed to be working.
I’m guessing if the investigation gets a bit too close to the builder, we’ll see some other kind of building go up (more commercial or retail, perhaps).
‘In a frenzied market, you don’t need to spend that much time. People just come in and buy a house.’
In a falling market, sellers lower their wishing prices or buyers just don’t come in.
The crash, err…correction will not be over until prices revert to the average appreciation rates. Meaning, 2002, 2003 prices.
It might get worse than that due to over-correction on the downside.
The ugliness is only in the second inning.
Unless they have mistakenly overbuilt and created more supply than can be absorbed…then there is no God Given Law of Physics that guarantees any value of any asset.
1999-2000 prices is more like it. I would expect 40%-50% nominal… by 2009.
Agree with you, AZ. 1999, or prior, depending on what happens to the economy.
My calculation says early-2003 levels is appropriate. I think the over-correction will lower it to mid-to-late-2002 prices.
How did you calculate it?
What is the calculation?
if we hit 2002 ammo will be the next bull market
It happened before and no one needed ammo…
Manhattan is supposed to be different. But I can remember the crash in the housing market in the early nineties.Late 80s, everybody was buying, including “investment apts.” Early 90s, nobody was buying, nobody even wanted to rent apts. well under the carrying costs of screwed owners. NYTimes had endless articles on how to find somebody to rent and cover even a part of the carrying costs. I always figured I missed the moment, but she’s coming round again.
Then again, I have a pal who did buy then, and he says with rising maintenance, property taxes and “special assessments”, he’s still pinned down financially, and he makes a good buck at Sothebys. This is a bigger crash than then, the fraud is apparently wider and deeper, folks are much more in debt, and so is the gov’t. 2002 or 2003 prices? At best, just a stop on the escalator down.
Wall St. can turn around and start massive layoffs on a dime, and all the ibanks tend to do it in unison, which really buries the town, especially given the massive ripple effect.
“Leslie Wade, principal of public relations firm Wade Communications, said it’s common for marketers to write their advertisements based on what the community could look like in a few years, rather than its current appearance. Even with the marketers’ dreams coming true, there’s some stretching that goes on, Wade said.”
My favorites are the glossy condo development adds displaying fake photographs which replace a bunch of half-constructed eyesores with shiny facsimiles of newly constructed skyrises.
” it’s common for marketers to write their advertisements based on what the community could look like in a few years, rather than its current appearance. Even with the marketers’ dreams coming true, there’s some stretching that goes on, Wade said.”
Well Leslie, where I come from “it common” for people who write this tripe to be labeled as dirty, rotten, stinkin liars…..
“Well Leslie, where I come from “it common” for people who write this tripe to be labeled as dirty, rotten, stinkin liars…..”
Delusional also comes to mind.
I have no problem with downtown La Mesa, but chic and sophisticated it isn’t. That advertisement is more along the lines of magical thinking on the marketer’s part than some stretch of a “self fulfilling prophecy.”
I guess you have to try almost anything to sell a condo or a townhouse around here anymore. Even comedy.
more like romance novel
Downtown La Mesa chic? That is my home town and it’s far from chic. It’s a pleasant place though, has the feel of an old fashioned small town downtown. They should have said something like that in the marketing materials.
“Leslie Wade, principal of public relations firm Wade Communications, said it’s common for marketers to write their advertisements based on what the community could look like in a few years, rather than its current appearance. Even with the marketers’ dreams coming true, there’s some stretching that goes on, Wade said.”
So if I pursue that 250 lb 5′4 chick and marry her, it would be on the assumption she would thin down to 105 lb a couple of years down the line right?
Given that marriage is pretty much like an ARM mortgage nowadays (resets after a few years).
However, Ian, since every reset goes up, I can only assume that 250 lb. chick will soon be the elephant in the living room.
So I can do a short sale only after expensive plastic surgery… yuk!
“The number of Californians with a real estate license would fill Joe Robbie Stadium in Miami where Super Bowl XLI is being played next month - seven times. There are more licensed Realtors in California than the population of Long Beach, the state’s fifth-largest city.”
Wow, that will be one long bread line…
Got popcorn?
Neil
How f-cking annoying would that stadium be? You either need to find a gun that holds 65,000 bullets to shoot all the realtors or find a gun with one hollow point bullet to shoot yourself.
That stadium? Nothing says I love you like a daisy cutter.
Neil
No don’t get carried away too fast…
Gotta have the M61A1 20mm Gatling gun or the A10 30mm Gatling gun fantasy fullfilled first.
Then the daisy cutter, and then the MOAB, for those Fat-Ass realtors in the parking lot within their H2 hummers with the magnetic Realtor signs, talking on their cellphones telling the last of the brain-dead buyers about how the market will have a big rebound in the spring and you better get in now talk…
BTW a magnetic Realtor sign can easily be replaced with Avon, AmWay or Herbalife sign when they finally figure out that their vast 2 years of real estate experience can’t make their H2 payments anymore. They were probably doing AmWay to begin with.
Everyone should google Amway and republican party.
It all starts to make sense after a while.
We have the technology. It’s from a company called Metal Storm.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ih2vPGMQzlo
I’d make the popcorn for the Daisy Cutter Show, Neil. Love the Hercules as a delivery vehicle.
“The number of Californians with a real estate license would fill Joe Robbie Stadium in Miami”
There are also a half-million Cal fast food outlets needing employees and managers to fill positions such as fry cook,cashier,dishwasher,backroom scrub boy, sandwich maker, oven tender,ect. Unemployed Realtors welcome to apply. Positions available at burger king, del taco, Carl’s jr,pizza hut, el pollo loco,ect. People skills and handy with numbers helpful but not necessary.
“There are more licensed Realtors in California than the population of Long Beach, the state’s fifth-largest city”
That’s adding insult to Long Beach, which dosen’t need any comparisons to #of cal realtors to add to it’s already dismal problems(boeing layoff’s, catastophic dwtn Condo market, ground zero in a port nuke blast, hugh population of gangs and dregs,belching 18-wheelers making 710 fwy a demolition derby, port pollution spew,ect.
As soon as I saw that fire in the news… I thought it was suspicious.
I thought the fire sales would begin next year.
That’s the only way they’ll make money in condos nowadays.
No, that would be a fire insurance sale.
“The suit names 11 plaintiffs who said they each bought between two and 10 homes under the arrangement. Many of the plaintiffs have defaulted on multiple mortgages.”
Will all the housing losses that are mounting daily be enough to sink the American economy?
I just cant believe the $ amounts that are spoken about.
Un-freaking-believable!!!!
Q: how dumb are these people????!!!!
A: take the IQ of a typical lemming and divide by 100.
You are insulting Lemmings!
“Will all the housing losses that are mounting daily be enough to sink the American economy?”
Not to worry, Luvs Footie, we spend this much daily on mocha grandés….
Now a trillion here, a trillion there… Hey, that could add up to some money….
“The North County Times. “As the investigation continued Monday into the huge blaze that burned The Paramount condominium project in Escondido last week, officials were not releasing any hint of what caused the fire.”
Texas-based developer D.R. Horton, Inc., has not publicly said yet whether it will rebuild.”
The City of San Diego Pension fund will lend them the money.
Number of realtors 1:70 ratio is total population of state, if you exclude children and the retired it has to be at least 1%. This is more proof of last stages of a bubble everyone participates.
Last time I checked, 1 out of 70 is already above 1% (actually 1.43%)
Isn’t 1:70 greater than 1%?
With that many people talking bullshxx to everybody, about you better buy now or be priced out forever no wonder people took out sucide loans. Its like California is one big NAZI realtor prison camp or something.
If this precious source of “hot air” and “noxious gas” could somehow be harnessed, Country’s energy problems would be at an end…. energy exportation of surplus gases to China could begin immediately….
That is, if they could get use to the smell.
I guess I am in denial about how big the bubble really is.
I am sure many of the realtors are part time.
I told some of my co-workers that stat, and 2 of them said “my dad has a real estate license, but he doesn’t use it.” One said that it’s in case he wants to buy another house, he can save on the commisions. The other guy said that his aunt saved on commision by keeping it in the family. There was also an IT guy at my office that got his RE license so that he could save a ton of money on some property he wanted to buy.
“There also has been a lot more action and people at the condo site since the blaze.
She’s peddling condos to firemen.
RJ meant to say “She’s peddling condoms to firemen.”
It’s been a tough year and a girl’s gotta do what a girl’s gotta do.
‘Merced County’s unemployment rate crept upward last month, landing at 9.6 percent in December…Colusa County’s December unemployment rate was 14.8 percent, Imperial County’s was 14.5 percent, and Tulare County’s was 9.9 percent, Baker said.’”
————————————————————-
there’s a bunch of empty houses the unemployed farm and construction workers can stay in for free until the owner finds out
Texas-based developer D.R. Horton, Inc., has not publicly said yet whether it will rebuild.”
“‘They were just talking (Friday) about they would like to build again,’
———————————————————-
I would say the same thing
- “Foreclosure activity in Riverside County continued to rise sharply in the last three months of 2006,
- reflecting overstretched buyers
-“Lenders sent out 5,329 notices of default to home buyers
- who had fallen behind on their mortgages,
The Inland Empire / San Bernadino will soon be Little Mexico. There will probably be 30k foreclosure’s this year.
SoBay posts “The Inland Empire / San Bernadino will soon be Little Mexico.”
Yes. That is too kind of a statment for what id going on out there. By the time this has settled out those houses will sell for peso’s on the dollar if they even sell.
What do you mean? They ain’t makin’ any more land in the IE there buddy!
We can’t all be lucky enough to be dirt people!
It’s going to be Moreno Valley in 1991 all over again…3000sq ft 3 car garages 4 bdrm 3 bath for less than $200,000…I was there and didn’t buy because of all the gang symbols.
Ahh Moreno Valley… I heard stories about those crackshacks having studs 24+” on center in no regular pattern. Hope the big one doesn’t come in the next 30 years…
Just for fun lets get an informal vote on bens blog
on which part of the IE will be the epicenter for the IE bubble collapse! Do i hear Moreno valley? Hemet? Menifee? Romoland? Perris? Or some other god-forsaken plot out in the scorched barren outback wastelands astride the 74 hwy between 15 and 215. Or should we pan north and locate our epicenter in The ramshackle wasted crackshack areas of colton, inner San Bern metro or fontucky? Or pan out over the El cajon pass to the outer desert scrubland barrens of Hesperia,Victorville(compton in the desert),Adelanto, barstow,ect.
It is a deadheat between Hesperia and Perris for the race to the bottom of the barrel.
I actually have a vote for Norco. Over building + over-powering smell of the cow farms. I used to hold my breath as I drove on the 15 through there.
Did anyone hear this morning that the builder WCI had more cancellations then new contracts last quarter? That is freakin great! Who suggested a short on those guys 5 months ago?
And if you shorted a month ago you got your a$$ run over, the truck backed up, and ran over it again. It went from $13.78 to over $23. Don’t think that an imploding housing market has translated to the HBs. They are getting the old CNBC pump on a nightly basis. Goldman Sachs upgraded a bunch, and downgraded a few, today.
Read about Judge refuses to shut down brokerage.
“MURRIETA —- A mortgage brokerage and several other defendants in a lawsuit accusing them of fraud can continue to operate, a judge ruled Thursday.
Other defendants include Jovane Investments, an Orange-based company registered to James Duncan; Stonewood President Hendrix Montecastro; his mother, Helen Montecastro; two notaries; and four lenders who are now trying to collect late mortgage payments from the plaintiffs.
The suit also targets Pacific Wealth Management LLC of Las Vegas and its officer, Maurice McLeod. The company is unrelated to a San Diego corporation of the same name. The San Diego company sued McLeod’s company late last year, alleging improper use of its name and improper use of a federal identification number that the San Diego company once used, according to court records.
Holmes’ ruling didn’t address the merits of the pending lawsuit, which demands compensation for plaintiffs who said they were defrauded. The suit names 11 plaintiffs but alleges that as many as 412 people may have been suckered into overpaying for investments ranging from Iraqi currency to single-family homes in and around Murrieta.”
It know fraud is out there but I didn’t realize how much of it there is. This is going to get very ugly indeed.
that Iraqi currency investment is looking better ever day.
OT..just thinking..
If CA and FL crash worse than other places, might this be an incentive for those living in the places that didn’t crash (or crash nearly as much) to make a move, along with their equity (assuming they can sell).
For example, for all the neg. press, homes here in MA still seem to be selling at high prices. If one can sell in MA, walk away with two, three, four hundred thousand in cash and jump on something where things have really CRASHED, might they do that.
I soon might be negotiating a work from home arrangement in 2008. I don’t have a house to sell, but the notion of taking my dry powder keg from MA to another region, where I can pay cash, certainly does have a certain appeal to it…
Has anyone else those thoughts?
An ebbing tide sinks all boats. The reverse is more likely true someone with a lot of equity undercuts the market in CA and moves to lower cost areas.
… except you would have to live there, or worry about your investments there - which might be worse. All the pain, none of the sun.
This is precisely why Seattle as “one of the last dominos to fall” will fall even harder….price contrast and relative affordability. People up here say that CA, AZ, and FL will all fall because THEY had a bubble.
But if prices fall in those states and remain high in WA…..where is everybody gonna want to go? WA? I think not.
BTW…prices up here have doubled and even tripled in some areas in the last 7 years but that is because…..
Ok, we know, it’s different there and real estate always goes up.
Purely anecdotal :
I cannot go anywhere these days without people telling me that they are ready to leave LA. All of a sudden, everyone is talking about their “exit plan”. Quite a few of my collegues (sp?) have already made scouting trips to Texas.
I am serious - this is a very noticable trend, much the same as hearing everyone and their brother brag about their home in 2005.
I hear it too, when I go to LA on business. A lot of people ask me how I like Tucson. Anywhere but CA. They seem to think they are going to take a lot of equity with them. I usually say they had better hurry, since everyone has the same plan, rushing for the exits.
Yes - same thing that I tell all of my friends. You can feel the trend - it’s completely obvious.
People want OUT.
fyi. I don’t want out. I like it here still. But, so many people I talk to do. They are ready to bail. Yes. most are homeowners.
Too Late. UNLESS they are willing to take about 10% less than the last high of their market. And I mean RIGHT NOW. I think a lot of inventory is coming out in LA this spring. Only the BEST looking and deals will get sold.
I will admit my wife and I are exploring exit strategies too. How much do we want to live in a state where I get to pay healthcare for illegal immagrants and I can go to jail for spanking my kids when they act up? The environment here was marginal already. The current trend is increasing the urge to get somewhere more rational.
are you in MA or CA?
It’s hard to tell the difference these days…
San Diego California.
please tell me that anti-spanking thing has not become law.
Just a proposal at this point. Some 45yo childless lawmaker. Child abuse is already a crime. Apparently, not enough decent parents have been dragged to court by their brats. Gotta keep the jails full, I guess.
Thought the spanking issue was settled over and over and over, again.
You gotta love these idiots who complain about all the “out of control” kids, and yet want to tie their parents hands when it comes to disciplining them.
The whole “child abuse” thing has become the latest witch hunt. Every parent I know is scared to death that their children will be taken away because they yelled at them or spanked them…as if the states have done a better job raising foster children.
I’ll get off my soapbox, now.
Just put your kids through Uni HS AP classes in Irvine it’s much tougher than any Taekwando lessons or Marines basic.
ditto here in MA
I know many people making approx. $100K or so, and even they are complaining. Used to be that at $100k, you were pretty much set. Not any more. After income taxes, car expenses, commuting expenses, housing expenses, living expenses, etc., retirement savings, there ain’t much left to live the way one thinks one could on 100 G’s.
Traffic? brutal within 20 miles of Beantown. Even on weekend mornings, traffic starts by 8 AM. North, south, east, west…it doesn’t matter.
The people in the service sector suck too. It is as though they are doing you a favor. Rudeness, arrogance, incompetence, lack of attention, etc., etc., etc. seem to rule.
and don’t forget the Big Dig
$100 grand a year is nothing any more. People need to get that through their heads. What’s that reality hits they will understand why this housing market is so screwed.
“Once that reality hits…”
$200 grand is now what $100 grand was in the ’90s. And $200 grand of yearly income is a big number for most people.
“$100 grand a year is nothing any more.”
Yea it is. Wages aren’t going up. Not that many people make 100K a year. That’s why houses are coming down. 200k is very rare. And I live in Los Angeles.
You missed the point Imploder. In the ’90s $100,000 per year got you a certain level of wealth. Today you need to make $200,000 per year to have that same level of comfort. That is very rare. Yet a lot of people are trying to live that way. $100,000 is nothing, regardless of whether people are making that much. Everybody acts like they are making that much. That is why you now need $200,000 to be ahead of the credit card crowd and have a house and all the rest of it.
I was a SoCal resident last year. I had enough of being on the slowway at 4:30am to get to work on time, and then staying in the office until 7pm because it did not matter if you left at 5pm or 7pm..you still are not getting home until 8pm.
Beaches and mountains…yeh right, unless you live at the beach, or in the mountains you are too busy working and driving to enjoy them just so you can pay your overbloated mortgage.
It’s funny, the whole housing bubble issue has forced me to think about whether I really want to stay in LA long-term.
I like LA well enough. It’s a good place with good people. Traffic is bad, but it’s bad in most comparable big cities. The weather is nice, but I didn’t mind winter so I am fairly indifferent to that. I like my job a lot, and there is a lot of opportunity here. There is also a lot of competition, but still, I think there is opportunity.
But do I really want to raise kids here? I am not so sure about that. I certainly don’t want to send them to the crappy public schools. And more importantly, this just isn’t the place to be a kid. There are no empty spaces to play in, Children can’t go anywhere unsupervised, and people are so…isolated…here that kids can’t just go next door to the neighbor’s to play, either. Most of my neighbors do not speak English, and while they are good people I just don’t know them well enough to feel comfortable having our kids play together.
And the culture? On the west side, it’s pretty screwed up. Drugs and depravity are everywhere. I’m no moralist, but when my kids are teens I don’t them hanging out with the children of coked-out Hollywood producers and their third wives. And that kind of thing actually is quite common here, and not just in the nicest neighborhoods. There are a lot of screwed-up, self-indulgent people here, something about CA really attracts them. Certainly it’s nothing like the Midwest, where I grew up.
And the diversity…it’s out of control. I like diversity and am glad that my kids are experiencing it. But illegal immigration really is out of control. Much of LA really does look like a third world country now. And no, it’s not a racial thing. It’s just that when middle class, native-born Americans move out of a neighborhood and are replaced by dirt-poor people who do not speak English and have sixth grade educations, it changes the character of a neighborhood a lot, and not for the better.
And the future? More of the same. The illegal aliens will keep on coming. The middle class will keep on leaving. Housing prices will plummet, but in the end they will still be expensive here.
Right now I am staying put due to family obligations, but the idea of moving is looking better and better. The LA of the past is gone.
Nonetheless, If I can buy a house, I’ll stay. But if not? see you.
That’s what I liked about the midwest. People, in general, are unassuming. In LA everyone expects everything NOW and they’ll do anything to get it. I share the rest of your concerns. On traffic, I’m afraid you need to get out of LA and re-baseline. Very little compares to LA traffic. Smog anyone? Earthquakes? COst of living. Overcrowding?
…
Was this kind of lament common for New York City at various times. If so, how did it get past it? I assume there must have been periods, given they filmed “Escape From New York”.
Oh wait! I forgot about “Escape from L.A.”
The midwest is not any better. You got the bible thumping, Bush loving wacko’s. My husband and I are moving to Europe within the next couple of years…. we have had it with America. I grew up in L.A. and everything you said about it is true. It is like some thirdworld country. It is disgusting and dirty. I moved up to Northern California and now it is turning into the same sh*thole as L.A.
I can’t live on the West Coast for damn sure, I can’t live with a bunch of crackers from the midwest. The East Coast, I don’t even want to get started on that. So I am going back to my roots. Where we are moving to in Europe the crime is very low. The air is cleaner and housing more affordable. People work less hours and have longer vacation time. Everyone who works or worked gets medical/dental. There are very few homeless. Best of All you can’t take out exotic home loans for something you can’t really afford! haha.
“Bush loving, bible thumping wacho’s” vs “Muhammad loving, car burning wacho’s”. Thanks, I think I’ll take my chances here in America.
I live in LA and am also worried about my kids going to public schools - can they learn anything while there’s racial wars, etc. going on. I live in Lakewood, which is as suburbian as the suburbs can get, and I still have these fears. Is there anywhere left in SoCal that has decent public schools / quality of life without homes priced over 1M?
saw the post by Peter below, thanks
unless you live at the beach, or in the mountains you are too busy working and driving to enjoy them just so you can pay your overbloated mortgage.
As a renter, you can indeed live at the beach or in the mountains without breaking the bank. Even in California.
For the price of what I pay to rent within one block of the ocean in Newport Beach, I could maybe buy a shitbox in Tucson, Arizona. And the shitbox would be a depreciating asset. Thanks, I’ll keep renting at the beach.
Colorado Springs used to be such a nice, welcoming destination for CA equity locusts. But ever since we had a meltdown at our local nuclear reactor, followed by an ongoing Ebola outbreak, not to mention swarms of killer bees, we’re not quite as desirable anymore, so please look elsewhere, Californians.
C’mon on Sammy, everyone knows Ft. St. Vrain was shut down. What you meant to say was you are going to be the next Rocky Flats.
Do you have any links you recommend for housing in Co Springs?
[sarcasm]Then there’s the religious right and their domination of the local moral scene. It’s practically SLC in its prudishness. Berkeley is so much more receptive to alternative lifestyles that Californians should just stay home. [/sarcasm]
Seriously, it is creepy to live in Colorado Springs and be in the shadow of the #1 nuclear warhead target on God’s Green Earth. At least if it happens it will be quick. If not quick, it will be relentless.
I thought they built Cheyenne Mtn so it could take a pretty good hit since StratCom HQ couldn’t? That was a Cold War target no doubt.
I think the risk is higher living in a low tech terrorism target location.
I lived 9 years in Dallas and HATED it! The weather sucks, a lot of people have attitudes (especially about Northerners and Californians) and it is ugly as hell! A heard of wild horses could not drag me back there. Plus Dallas is the allergy capital of the world! I never really had allergies before I moved there (only seasonal) and when I left I was about comatose from the allergies! I had 2 doctors tell me to move or I would get really sick!!! Money isn’t everything!! I am warning you the allergies are hell!! If you didn’t have allergies when you moved there you will when you leave!!!!! My allergies were so bad I couldn’t even think straight. Both me and my husband were “foggy” all the time! It was AWFUL!!
Same thing here. No one could believe it when I left SoCal 3 years ago for another state, they though it was crazy. Now all I hear, even from home the grown, never would leave types, is “I’m getting out of of this state”.
I’m starting to see an awful lot of U-Hauls with autos attached that have California plates heading north on I-15 thru UT.
My friend recently became a realtor and sold his first house (in Santa Monica). The sellers are movig to Texas. My friend is also selling their mother’s Santa Monica house so she can move to Texas with them.
Along with this, lots of talk lately about “quality of life” issues in Los Angeles. I don’t know if it’s the cold weather or what - but a lot of people seemed to have awoken to the realtity of this “glamorous” city.
There are good pockets of the city where kids can run and play. Though, I do notice, at least half of the open houses I go to…the seller is moving out of state. So the exodus continues….even less demand…
LILLL,
That’s true, but those pockets are unaffordable for people with kids!
I know what you are talking about, though, there are places in both the SF and SG Valleys, as well as Orange County, that are pretty traditional and suitable for kids.
The problem is that they are unaffordable for anyone with kids! I don’t mean to be a pessimist, but seriously — what is the cost of admission to those places, like $800k? What 30-something person with young children can afford to pay those prices? I certainly can’t. There are a few double income yuppie couples out there that can squeeze into the absolute rock-bottom cheapest house in one of these areas, but only if they leverage themselves to the hilt. If Mom wants to take a few years off to be with the kids, she can forget it. The mortgage on that $800k 1,200 square foot 3br/2ba has to be paid each and every month!
This just sort of illustrates the generational gulf that CA is experiencing. Older folks have created some very nice communities that were, at one time, suitable for families wiht children. But those days are gone. As the Boomers’ children grow up, they aren’t being replaced. Ordinary people cannot hope to get into one of these formerly middle- and upper-middle class communities, even if they are doing well financially.
Just when you know nothing will ever change it does. It’s happened before. Look at New York in the late 70’s… they were giving it away….
Things can change in LA.
The only way things can change for the better in LA is if they stop allowing illegal immigration.
Seriously, for people who haven’t personally experienced the difference over the past few decades, it’s amazing.
The reason the “desirable” areas have become so high priced is because the “safe” areas are shrinking. Some areas which were formerly nice are now slums — this happened just in the past 20-30 years.
We used to have “Brady Bunch”-type neighborhoods, with one family per SFH, and mom stayed home with the kids while dad went off to his 40 hour work week (with much better commute times).
Now, you have 3 or 4 families living in these same homes, the cars crowd the driveways, yards and streets. The noise levels are higher, and the kids can no longer play in the streets because a lot of the “new neighbors” leer at the young girls, and the gang members hang around in various front yards, glaring at everyone who walks by.
Everyone complains about “Californication” in other cities and states, but have they ever stopped to think about what native Californians have had to deal with?
Agree that CA has changed, and not for the better, in the past 20-30 years due to illegal immigration.
But I still think that the MAIN reason why young families are priced out is the Boomer “wealth” effect.
Illegal immigrants have done a lot of damage to cities like Anaheim and Santa Ana. These places were never all that nice, but they were much nicer before the illegals started coming in massive numbers.
But even in LA, there are still plenty of middle class neighborhoods left. For example, the white middle class has largely fled the San Gabriel Valley, but it hasn’t been replaced by dirt poor illegal immigrants. It’s still a middle class area, but the new residents are mostly Asian and second and third generation Hispanics. These neighborhoods are still mostly safe, clean, decent places to raise a family.
But no first time buyer can afford to buy a SFH in the San Gabriel Valley. In a place like West Covina, prices start at $500k — half a million dollars! In the nicer SGV neighborhoods prices start at around $700k. In the seedier neighborhoods, $400k.
These prices are simply out of reach for first-time buyers. The only people who can afford them are Boomers with equity from a previous residence. Boomers are also in their peak earning years; many are capable of servicing a far larger mortgage than a younger person who earns less than someone with more experience/seniority/etc.
The Boomers are a bigger problem than the illegals. Personally, I don’t know who I’d rather see deported.
The only people who can afford them are Boomers with equity from a previous residence.
————————
Hogwash, my friend! All you need is a stated-income, 125% LTV, neg-am mortgage and you are IN!!! All the “savvy” buyers are doing it. How exciting is that? And here you thought you could never afford a house.
Seriously…the Boomers were already in the market, for the most part, when the boom got going (late 90s). It’s the EZ credit that caused prices to move like they did. It created a whole new pool of “qualified buyers” which temporarily caused a supply/demand imbalance.
Same with Prop 13. It’s a great thing, and you will embrace it once you see how violently this market can move. Absolutely no reason for people’s property taxes to be determined by specuvestors with Monopoly money.
If buyers take the full PITI payments into consideration, they would not bid up the purchasing price so as to make the prop tax prohibitive.
Nobody should blame the Boomers for doing what every one of us would do, if we were in their shoes. Personally, I know of a lot more “Gen X and Y” kids speculating with toxic loans than Boomers.
Imagine what prices would look like if we all had to pay 20% down, max DTI ratios at 28/33% on verified income, and have a 3-6 month reserve in the bank. We’ll get there eventually.
“There are good pockets of the city where kids can run and play”
The increasingly diminishing places in LA for raising a family in a decent, well-run, affordable community are rare, but there are still some pockets here and there.
Although the definition of affordable is subject to debate in LA, i would put the affordable range at this point in the LA cycle at around-$400,000, which leaves out almost every desirable clean family burg within LA county limits. IF, cross your fingers, LA county prices fall to Average median of $400,000 or even less sometime
in the near future(hopefully very near future), these areas would be the decent affordable county burgs, though they are not perfect, they are OK by LA standards:
1. La Mirada-overlooked decent burg, and prices stablizing and showing a possible downward trend
2 Lakewood- Still keeping it’s middle class tidy ambience:many older small post WWII sfh’s but most neighborhoods still kept up.
3 Glendale- prices still a bit high but this is a well-kept up burg, a slightly cheaper a;ternative to overpriced pasadena.
4. Carson-some clean tidy neighborhoods, though one must do some research to locate a clean location in this racially diversified but prosperous community.
5. Western Torrance- still overpriced but trending dowm.
6. Pico rivera- not as bad as folks make of it-local police and city bureau’s keep it up.
7.Downey- still maintains it’s middle class ambience for the most part, though may be fraying a bit at the edges.
8. San Dimas- prices falling but last look seemed to be an okay burg.
9. Arcadia- looks okay on the surface. prices still need to drop a bit more
10. Walnut/diamond Bar- may be fraying a bit but prices trending downward for DB.
i know, i know, these places not perfect but they are the best of a bad lot. Probably 50% of LA county zip areas officially third-world immigrant inundated zones, and picking among the 80+ cities which comprised LA county the ones which are still fairly kept up middle class is a difficult subjective process, but at least it is an attempt, though probably flawed.
Note: I kept out the SFV commmunities and Santa clarita valley, as my info limited in these areas, though there are no doubt some good decent burgs in the ‘North’ parts of LA county and the western portions of the SFV.
Ever notice… Ben likes to leave the KING of RE crashes to last - the looming CA bust. It might be a black hole that sucks the entire world into financial chaos…
Has more to do with time zones, i think.
AZ, I have noticed this, too. But, people wake up later on the West Coast, and news in CA is three hours behind, so that may have something to do with Ben’s timing. Even so, the news out of CA is potentially monstrous in it’s scope.
Sorry to keep harping, but it really feels like someone flipped a switch in the last month. I mean EVERYONE I’ve had lunch with lately, even my property management guy started yacking with me on the phone today about how he’s ready to get out of LA. Said that he’s sick of waiting in traffic, wants to move to Colorado Springs where he can get a huge house for $300k.
2-hour commutes, traffic, smog, immigrants, crime, imploding I/O ARM, and deflating home values are starting to take a toll. It looked cool when you made 100k per year on your house, and the commute was newer…but it gets old!
People are taking note.
Is this what 1990 felt like?
1990 had Nirvana.
That made it way, way better.
ha ha! awesome.
Yeah, hopefully this bust will produce some kick-a$$ music.
And I’m dead tired of hearing hip-hop; one of the most unintelligent genres that only reminds me of Hummers and whores, both financed with drugs or home equity.
posted “1990 had Nirvana.”
He ate a shotgun.
I think he was facing foreclosure.
Naw, just “facing Courtney”….
Talk about a “downer”…
Smells like Nirvana
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7197824358776485966
Good one, GS!
Now all we need is for “Falling Down II” to come out.
In which the Robert Duvall character, in his turn, can’t refinance his leveraged-to-the-gills flips and goes on a Michael Douglas-style rampage of his own.
I thought the Russell Crowe depression era boxer movie was pretty close to that, but I am always early onto a trend.
“Cinderella Man” quality movie
posted ” Is this what 1990 felt like? ”
Everyone (downturn) is diffrent. I have been thru 3….I have a feeling the lay-offs and higher unemployment will come later in the bust… but it will come like the icing on the cake.
Also differant rates are low… damm low! We really Hoed out every last refuge of cash. This time people are really and truly going to be broke…. little hope to lower rates.
Next another “new” item the out and out fraud and rip-off of the lending system…. never seen before in past down turns like this….Usually the rich got it…. but know it really has “trickled down” to the masses. This will be one TURD that will not go away.
“Is this what 1990 felt like?”
Seems like it to me. People are no longer backhandedly bragging about how much their house is worth. Instead I’m starting to hear them rationalize how everything will be fine, and their equity will take off again soon. Yet, every one of these people can name several others who have gotten themselves into refinancing stupidity. Like AE Newman said, the wild equity spending and massive fraud adds a disturbing difference this time around vs. last. Ordinary people weren’t throwing monopoly money wildly at RE “investments” just because “real estate always goes up,” nor were they spending equity as though they had won the lottery.
I’m also hearing more people talking about bailing out of California and moving into a larger house somewhere cheaper. Same exact song as last time. If this downturn turns out to be fairly similar to the last one, I’m curious as to when businesses will start really downsizing and/or leaving the state en masse. I remember seeing news articles stating that X number of businesses were leaving the state each week when things really started to go bad.
“I’m also hearing more people talking about bailing out of California and moving into a larger house somewhere cheaper.”
If I had a nickel for everyone I’ve heard talking about that lately, I’d be a rich man.
1990 had significant Areospace and defense job losses.
ditto here in MA, see my note above…
It used to be ‘common knowlege’ that LA had ‘no future’ and ’sucked’.
I guess that theme is new again.
Its not like there are a million dot com style jobs here. If you don’t work in hollyweird there aint much here but there are ‘nice areas’ ghetto adjacent all over LA .
And the crap-hole The OC aint far behind. The North OC area is mostly a ghetto and South OC will be right behind once the implosion concludes. Too bad, I used to really want to buy there (20 years ago).
Born in 1952 in North OC. Still here, though I spent 3 or 4 years somewhere in between in other areas of the OC. On the whole, North OC has improved in all ways except population density and traffic. To say that North OC is a ghetto causes me to question when the last time was that you visited these environs.
We live in a preservation zone in a Craftsman-era house. Good neighborhood, colleges everywhere, great high schools, tons of restaurants and plentiful shopping nearby. Little to no graffiti, depending on neighborhood. Cultural events abound. Nice weather and proximity to beaches and mountains.
Pricey? Yes! Ghetto? LMAO. Visit or remain clueless.
You are either in fullerton, or orange…both are sh$tholes to be. now if you are in old anaheim, it already a sh$thole. I love the craftsman house though. To bad you can’t move the house to a better neighborhood. All the old craftsman neighborhoods are surrounded by ghetto, look at pasadena and eagle rock for an example of where you will be soon.
There are still some decent livable middle class pockets in the north OC, though you have to pick your spots. The part of fullerton north of chapman/commmomwealth okay for the most part. Brea is a small island of middle class affluence. Pacentia and yorba linda are holding up, though not 100% perfect. East Anaheim Hills area simlar to the south OC in most respects, with high prices to boot.
Avoid La habra, where there is an emerging Nasty illegal-alien slum pocket. Orange seems to be descending into a Santa Ana immigrant suburban slum. Tustin still a well-kept tidy burb for most part, though the presense of nearby Santa Ana will infect Tustin down the road.
I live in Anaheim (resort area of town), and I can’t say I’m completely comfortable visiting Stanton, Buena Park, most of Santa Ana and parts of Orange. My part of Anaheim is on the edge of “nice” because the hotels are just down the street, and we wouldn’t want to scare the tourists away :-). Between me and Stanton though, that’s another story. I’m chomping at the bit for prices to come down in Tustin. It’s enough like Irvine to be safe and nice, but unlike Irvine it has some character.
I lived in HB during early 90’s bust and at that time there was also a lot of “gonna move to ” talk. Only about 1 out of 10 actually did…..
Has he heard about the three blizzards in a row we’ve had here lately? And it’s been cold, cold, cold. With gigantic lumps of snow still in the streets. Californians, stay away from Colorado. Brrrrrrrrrrrr!
It’s funny how Colorado is so fearful of absorbing Californians again. One of the Denver papers (Post?) reported on a study showing that Californians tended to move to the bigger cities and preferentially into the more urban cores. Weird. Anyway, somebody needs to buy Taiwan Lee’s properties on the edge of the male prostitution park, so that he can buy some more smokes in the joint.
The big worry to have if you’ve made it into Colorado already is that Californians will stop the foreclosure bleeding too soon with their bags of money and boxes of stupid. That’s my concern. I fear somebody selling a beat up bungalo in Hayward and scooping up 2 places in Colorado because they were just so darned cheap.
As for the cold, bring it on. This Californian has Gunnison on his watchlist. How’s that for masochism?
From Brad’s comment about Merced there’s a bunch of empty houses the unemployed farm and construction workers can stay in for free until the owner finds out
The owners should have a hard time finding out. They either won’t be able to afford to drive there now (all from Bay/Sac/LA area). Or they will be on the state/fed free housing plan with Bubba and Bruno and Hilda. Merced, what a frickin’ DUMP. I vehemently warned about the bubble, and gave him this website. I emailed to him specific comments regarding Merced. The siren song and developer’s good deal was too strong (he also attended the Trump real estate weekend in SF). I hope he won’t hurt too bad.
A buddy of mine actually bought there and will be in trouble.
“Worst of Housing Slump Over”
The worst of the housing slump may be over, says a survey of 49 economists (2 to 1) by the Wall Street Journal. After several years of double-digit increases, the survey indicates home prices will fall 0.5% in 2007. That contrasts with a 13% increase in 2006. Gains in unsold inventory are much slower now. Low mortgage rates are a balm for the market, keeping potential buyers from getting cold feet. Sales of existing homes – 85% of the market – now seem to be stabilizing.
Go figure………
http://www.tirereview.com:80/?type=art&id=80668
They are mistaking people taking their homes off the market as ‘the worst’ being over.
Wishful thinking.
All them houses are coming back online, building back up the inventory, as we speak.
The ‘worst’- or for us- the ‘best’ is dead ahead.
“Declining supply says housing storm has passed”.
…and all the world rejoices!!! (for now).
Like when the ocean recedes as the Tsunami approaches….
even if they don’t come back online, those are people who will NOT be buying one of the other resales or new houses. Lost opportunity.
Many of the smart people are already long gone out of California. Everytime that I have gone back, it was like, what a $HITHOLE. ABQ to SF on UHaul, 26 ft truck $482. Same truck, SF to ABQ $2277. Guess which way trucks are going. Glad to be an ex-Californian.
I practically live in Downtown La Mesa. There is NOTHING ‘chic’ or even ‘cool’ about Downtown LM. Well, maybe if you like antiques and bead stores to go along some medicore Mexican places.
Does anyone track inventory count on MLS for San Diego? What is the easiest way to do that?
I like this site. http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/
Try this:
http://www.ziprealty.com/registration/register.jsp?usage=&level2=socal&cKey=3t2k4jf1&pageLink=%2Fregistration%2Fregister.jsp%3FcKey%3D5l0h54pg%26&metro=sandiego
Take a look at morningstar.com. From page link to an article “How investors can avoid the next ceo scandal”. LOL
http://www.roseloans.com
Well atleast this lender had a great name. Rosemortgage 2003ish-2007 R.I.P
History for another liar loan outfit. I hope they all meet the same fate.
Paladin,
Another useful site on corruption would be ripoffreport.com
Guess who has the most complaints other than corrupt companies? You guessed it - mortgage companies.
Read about Bank of America Reports Stronger 4th Qtr Profit.
“Lending margins within the banking industry have declined and were not for the high-interest earned from Bank of America’s MDNA credit card business unit the bank’s results would not have been as good. Still, yesterday Standard & Poor’s reported that it expects consumer debt to rise this year and the rate of home loan foreclosures to increase, which was not a good sign of things to come for the banking industry after it’s aggressive mortgage financing in the first half of last year while the real estate boom was still underway.”
S&P reports debt to increase. I am shocked. I can’t believe it. I thought everyone was paying off all that debt with HELOC money or a refied mortgage. Geez. I have really missed the boat on this one. Well, as you guys always say, “when the music stops.” Well, when the music stops, LIFE IS GOING (not maybe or possibly), but GOING TO GET rather tough for those with a lot of debt, esp. if they are upside down on the toys and the house. Let it be heard here first 2007 WILL BE the end of the consumer debtor for awhile. Once credit gets tightened it will be tough unless you have a good FICO and want to pay higher than loan shark rates. Just got one in the mail yesterday. I had to laugh the rate was for 18.24%. My wifey and I laughed as we have 9.9% on our current card and 0% until next Feb. for some stuff we transferred over and we don’t even have that much debt. Prety soon those 18%s are going to be 25-30%s. End game for American consumer. I hope China has a plan B for selling to us.
“With more than 10,000 new homes built in San Diego County last year, marketers know they have to work hard to set their houses apart from the pack.”
With 2.9m people in greater San Diego, that would be over one new home for every thirty men, women and children. To put that another way, if each man, woman and child in greater San Diego had lived in their own separate, private domicile in 2005, then the housing stock would have increased by in excess of 3.3% in just one year. (Of course, most folks don’t live alone in San Diego, because that would be too expensive…)
Nothin’ to see here folks … move along.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Diego,_California
Oops — never do math after the second glass of wine! Let’s say there would have been a 0.33% increase in 2006, if each man, woman and child owned their own home. But actually, the number of houses in the area is roughly 1.04m, so 10,000 homes would have been roughly a 1% increase in the stock — still a pretty big number for one year, I am guessing.
http://www.census.gov/popest/housing/tables/HU-EST2005-04-06.csv
I was just getting out my calculator. Brain said “does not compute” or something to that effect.
LA? What a joke. What a dump! We drove down there last July and then over to Vegas, another DUMP. What’s with you people? Can’t you design liveable places?
I don’t disagree, but it’s interesting that the towns people often list as preferable to LA, e.g. Phoenix, Tucson, Albuquerque, Dallas are all even dumpier, as if someone said, let’s design a city that has all the negative aspects of LA but none of the positive ones, and let’s park it in a desert with horrible hot weather and no ocean in sight!
ummmm hmmmmm….. yep
Tucson and Albuquerque are much less crowded than LA. I’ll take either over LA any day.
Read about Bill may regulate nation’s bloggers.
This guy (David Vitter) wants us to be stupid. He wants to stop the blogs.
Stand up my bloggers.
I wonder what percentage of bloggers earn over $25k per quarter from their blogs. Offhand I would guess fewer than 100 people.
Further, only a fraction of those 100 people are “people engaging in ‘paid efforts’ to encourage the ‘general public to communicate their own views on an issue to federal officials.’” For instance, it would be hard to make a case that Matt Drudge does this (to name the most famous blogger I can think of offhand).
I agree that it’s a stupid idea, but the language has been struck from the bill, and I fail to see how it was a threat to the vast vast majority of bloggers in the first place.
SD Zip:
“Your search has returned the first 200 of 17123 homes”
There are 121 new listings with today’s date — not a bad jump for the middle of winter. I can’t wait for the red-hot spring sales season, when 200+ homes are getting dumped on to inventory each day…
At this rate, listings are increasing at an annual rate of 257.928% (had my calculator at the ready due to previous math-related GS post).