“Going Through A Period Of Nail Biting”
The Charlotte Observer reports from North Carolina. “The coastal housing boom of the past few years has come to a screeching halt. In Myrtle Beach, new and existing condo sales dropped 37 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to Market Opportunity Research Enterprises.”
“In Wilmington, a less condo-driven market, existing home sales fell 17 percent in the same July-to-September period, according to the N.C. Association of Realtors. Nearby Brunswick County, home to miles of beach towns, saw a 64 percent drop, while there was a 30 percent drop in sales on the Outer Banks.”
“‘There is going to be a huge number of units on the market next year, and lots of them vacant,’ said Carl Van Horn of Market Opportunity Research.”
“There are about 10,000 condos on the market along South Carolina’s Grand Strand, several thousand more than a year ago, according to Tom Maeser, a real estate marketing analyst in Myrtle Beach.”
“Van Horn said that many of the buyers of coastal property in the past two years have been speculators or investors who purchase a property with the intention of selling it for more in the near term. Continued drop in demand could leave them, as well as developers, with unsold inventory and no cash to pay back their loans.”
“In the Myrtle Beach area, Tidelands Bank now has 90 percent of its total portfolio in residential and commercial real estate. ‘If the downturn in housing continues, there will be banks out there under stress because developers can’t turn enough inventory to service their debt,’ said Tony Plath, a professor of finance at UNC-Charlotte.”
“‘We’ve already seen developers in other parts of the country falter,’ said Plath. ‘We’re definitely going to go through a period of nail biting.’”
The Sun News from South Carolina. “Homeowners, reacting to a slowing real estate market, are remodeling their homes instead of moving into new ones, according to a survey. ‘If I sell my house and want to move up to at least something as good, it’s going to cost me as much if not more, so I’m better off remodeling my home,’ said Tom Maeser, market analyst.”
“Indeed, many Strand builders are reopening the remodeling segment of their business - which they may have closed during the building boom of the past several years, Maeser said.”
“‘With housing prices falling and interest rates higher than they were a few years ago, homeowners are still remodeling, but with an emphasis on managing costs,’ said Dan Fritschen, author of the national survey.”
The Athens Banner Herald from Georgia. “Is Athens overbuilt? If Athens-Clarke County’s housing growth continues on the same course it has followed for the past several years, a housing surplus will continue, county planners said.”
“Builders in Athens-Clarke County appear to be getting way ahead of the county’s population in terms of housing needs, according to projected figures compiled by the Athens-Clarke County Planning Department.”
“In 2005, the county issued permits for 3,993 more housing units than population projections indicated were needed, according to statistics available in the community assessment section of the 2008 Athens-Clarke County comprehensive plan.”
“‘There was a housing surplus of about 2,000 units just in single-family permits for 2005,’ said county Planning Director Brad Griffin. ‘There (currently) is a lot of (housing) product on the ground that’s empty, new and used.’”
“The housing disparity is predicted to grow even larger in 2010 where permits for housing will exceed need by 7,834 units, based on permitting and population trends.”
“For District 8 Commissioner States McCarter, there is no question about whether Athens is overbuilt. ‘We have a surplus now. At any given time there, are 20-something houses for sale in Cedar Creek,’ McCarter said.”
“Sean Hogan, president of the Athens Area Homebuilders Association, says he doesn’t think Athens is overbuilt, but he acknowledged that any market will bear periods of surplus regarding certain types of housing. He cited the proliferation of condominiums, largely marketed to students, as a building factor that has affected the apartment market to some extent.”
“Hogan adds that the building industry is a self-regulating type of business and that the community and region continues growing. ‘(Builders) won’t continue putting sticks and bricks together when the market is not there for it,’ Hogan said.”
“Real estate broker Steve Sgarlato, who has worked in the profession for 11 years, said the townhouse project is a perfect example of overbuilding in Athens. ‘You can drive around and see these phase-two projects, like that stuff on Whitehall, just sitting there with grass growing,’ Sgarlato said. ‘Some people are figuring out they can’t rent or sell what they’re building, so they stopped building.’”
“What has hurt, said Athens Apartment Association president Ernie Smallman, is that in order to compete with the ‘kiddie condos,’ many apartment properties responded by lowering rents. ‘Our rent levels are not what they were four years ago,’ Smallman said. ‘Our margins are much lower.’”
“UGA economist Jeff Humphreys said the Athens market, at least for single-family homes, is only temporarily overbuilt and that economically, that could mean home prices might decline in the market. In the past five years, home values have risen by 29 percent, somewhat higher than the 28 percent statewide and 24 percent in Atlanta, Humphreys said. The national increase was by 56 percent.”
“‘The market is telling us that Athens is no more or less overbuilt than the rest of the state,’ he said.”
The Savannah Morning News from Georgia. “I was surprised to hear from so many people after my recent column about the limited options in the local housing market for middle-income buyers. Most readers appreciated the fact that I raised the issue, but several let me know that the reality was even more difficult than I described.”
“Here and there one can find evidence of a market correction. One reader pointed to a house, an actual house, not a condo, in the Historic District that has been reduced in price by $76,000 (almost 20 percent) in recent months.”
“Elsewhere, out near Bull and 37th streets, a building that was listed as a condominium complex is now being marketed as rental apartments.”
“Now, none of this means that the local housing market is crashing. But it appears that something has to give. Either prices have to come down, or wages have to go up, or a hoard of wealthy folks from somewhere else suddenly have to enter the market.”
Homeowners, reacting to a slowing real estate market, are remodeling their homes instead of moving into new ones, according to a survey…many Strand builders are reopening the remodeling segment of their business - which they may have closed during the building boom of the past several years, Maeser said.
This is consistent with what a local remodeling contractor told me the other day. He said he has worked lined up well into 2007 and is not worried a bit about business.
that is, until recession hits and the remodeling trend runs into a wall as well.
WSJ has an editorial about it, ridiculing the notion that a recession is in the works. I take that as a fairly reliable contrarian indicator.
__________
State of the Economy
January 24, 2007; Page A12
Meanwhile, back at the economy, you may have noticed that 2006 ended without a recession. This follows the recessions of 2003, 2004 and 2005, all of which also never occurred, though they were widely warned about in the press and even forecast by many economists at some point during each of those years.
The big economic story going into this New Year is that growth is accelerating. Jobless claims have dipped, as the labor market stays tight amid a low 4.5% unemployment rate and rapidly rising real wages. Corporate profits continue to defy gravity, growing at nearly double-digit rates some five years into this expansion. Economist Ed Hyman’s ISI Group reports that as of last Friday some 57% of companies had beat profit expectations for the fourth quarter.
Then there’s the “trade deficit,” which was supposed to have produced a crisis any day now but is instead contributing to faster growth as American exports soar. Peppier growth abroad is helping, especially in Europe, assuming Germany’s big increase in value-added taxes this month doesn’t get in the way. Oil prices have come down, and even the housing slump seems to have stabilized in some parts of the country.
If Bill Clinton were still President, he’d have used last night’s State of the Union address to hail all of this as a triumph, taking political credit and claiming it was all due to his policies, with supportive headlines to match. It hardly matters what President Bush said last night; he still won’t get any credit.
And your point?
One problem with remodels is that most will end up overpricing their home for the neighborhood. It’s one thing to fix up things that should have been fixed but to add to it in hopes of getting a larger return when selling is not the smartest thing to do.
I have to agree with this. A friend bought a home in Mission Viejo in 99 with 90K in upgrades such as marble floors etc and paid only $20K over local comps for homes with no upgrades. It is kindof like trying to price in a pool…
WSJ also said Iraq would be a “cakewalk.” They are nothing more than the propaganda outlet of the Wall Street robber barons.
From my years in advertising, I can say this is true. When housing sales fall and people stay put, they put more money into redecorating and remodeling. Even in a recession.
This may be true of their primary homes (you know, the “quaint” tradition of actually living in houses), but what about 2nd, 3rd, 4th, xxth homes? And what happens when said flopper’s cash-flow “plan” of serially refi-ing comes to an end, and they have no other source of income (i.e., “job” / Casey Serin)?
When the magic HELOC/refi/neg-am gravy train runs out of juice, where does the remodeling budget come from?
“Now, none of this means that the local housing market is crashing. But it appears that something has to give. Either prices have to come down, or wages have to go up, or a hoard of wealthy folks from somewhere else suddenly have to enter the market.”
That pretty much sums it up. I suppose the only other possibility is that we as a society keep on going deeper into debt and somehow getting the Chinese to continue buying that debt at reasonable prices.
italics closed?
Italics closed again?
close
Mr. Jauk:
please remember to close your italics. I believe I did it for you.
tutorial for those interested:
http://titusonenine.classicalanglican.net/?page_id=15953
oops, or John or PDXrenter did!
I said CLOSE therefore I want the CREDIT!!!!!!!
If only closing a homeloan with 0 down were harder than closing italics on wordpress!
ROFL. Thank you New York, I’ll be here all week. And yes, I do laugh at my own jokes.
ROFLMAO.
“Now, none of this means that the local housing market is crashing. But it appears that something has to give. Either prices have to come down, or wages have to go up, or a hoard of wealthy folks from somewhere else suddenly have to enter the market.”
Since all real estate is local, Dick Lareah assures me this only applies in coastal South Carolina………………Bwahaahaahaa!!!
Thanks for the link HIC.
Sorry about that. I put the close slash in the wrong place. It will never happen again!
The newspaper article quoted really used the word hoard instead of horde?
Yes, in the King’s English, there really is no pun intended. A herd of cattle, a flock of birds, a hoard of rich people, a lie of lawyers, a con of politicians, etc. It all refers to a group of the specified populace.
not really.
“In the Myrtle Beach area, Tidelands Bank now has 90 percent of its total portfolio in residential and commercial real estate.”
Another significant area bank poised to experience significant pain, if not failure, when the all the FB/Investors/Speculators walk away from their property in late summer after coming to the realization that they can neither sell it for what they bought it for or rent it out to cover the costs.
Is that going to be the final nail in the coffin of the housing market, bank failures followed by the FDIC dumping REOs on the market to clear the balance sheet? How many significant bank failures do you all think we will have by September 2007?
” Tidelands Bank now has 90 percent of its total portfolio in residential and commercial real estate.”
Is there a way to check the loan portfolio of the banks I use? Does anyone know?
Go to bankrate.com and click on “check your bank’s rating”
It will give you a financial summary, not sure that is what you want.
I took a look at the latest tidelands 10Q (disclaimer - I am a novice at reading these things).
It appears that they have 270 million loan assetts, with only 3.3 million set aside for loan losses, or 1.2%. That seems mighty low considering that they are holding lots of speculator loans on condos.
Also interesting is that 5% of their assets (50% of those that are not loans) are held in mortgage backed securites. That makes 95% of their asset base subject to the housing crash. Scary.
If they file statements with the SEC you can review the 10k. I mentioned the other day that a local bank in town had 80% in local real estate - San Joaquin Bank is the name. However, there stock has reached a permanet plateau - at least that what they think?!?!
go to FDIC.gov and look at Uniform Bank Performance Reports for the specific bank you are looking at. These are quarterly reports and public property. Good information on loan-to-deposit ratios, credit concentrations, earnings, etc.
Bubbleglum, sniggle, crispy & cole and bearbanker,
Thanks for the info, I’m going to use your info and start checking. If I find anything weird in any bank I use, I will post it here; it might help other folks.
“Now, none of this means that the local housing market is crashing.
Nope. Just plummeting. Don’t sweat it.
Just got back from Charlotte.
There is a huge Re bubble occuring there too.
Charlotte is a place where you could get an all brick 2000 sq foot home for $100,000 not too long ago.
Now, some of the areas are asking $400,000 for a TOWNHOME.
And they’re building condo towers. In Charlotte. It’s the most rediculous thing I’ve ever heard of.
Up north an hour is “Lake Norman” a man-made lake. (made by Duke Energy). In Law’s bought a place on the lake for around $200,000 and it used to be kinda the boondocks.
Now there are McMansions EVERYWHERE up there, and it’s a city all unto itself.
The place can now fetch around $800-900,000.
In Law’s won’t sell because “with how fast it’s rising, it can’t possibly go down” because “all the northerners and Floridians are moving to Charlotte” and “Charlotte and NC are the fastest growing areas in the country”
in other words. “it’s different there”
I lived in Charlotte for five years; still go back there.
The place has the biggest inferiority complex of any city I know. They wish they were Atlanta, they wish they were NYC, they don’t want anything to do with the rest of the state, which is a shame because NC on the whole is pretty nice… It *is* a nice place to live but the whole aspriational “we need to prove to people we’re a big city” thing gets real tiring.
And the whole “all the northerners are moving here” thing? They’ve been saying that for the better part of a century.
passthebubbly:
you made me giggle.
all of what you say is true. However, that said, I do love going back there.
I think it’s that “small town” charm thing. It’s also how “pretty” the city is.
The plus: everything is so immaculate and pristine and groomed and primped. (at least where my inlaws live, in the southern part of the city off Providence)
The negative: it’s like that because everywhere is a suburban subdevelopment.
They say they want to be a big metro area like NYC or Atlanta, but then they build only in suburban subdevelopments/cul de sac structure, so getting around the city is a huge pain. And it’s so generica due to that.
but still, it was 75 degrees and sunny and green on xmas, and we rode our bikes through one of Charlottes few city parks and it was lovely.
They say they want to be a big metro area like NYC or Atlanta, but then they build only in suburban subdevelopments/cul de sac structure, so getting around the city is a huge pain. And it’s so generica due to that.
Have you been to Atlanta? Except for what’s inside the Perimeter (Central Fulton county and part of Dekalb county), the rest of Atlanta IS a suburb. Atlanta according to the MLS is comprised of TWENTY-EIGHT counties.
I stayed in Atlanta and did research through Emory U and Grady Memorial Hospital for 6 months. I had no desire to leave the city limits though. I’m a liberal yankee from up north (right from SF itself) and had NO BUSINESS being in suburban atlanta/rural georgia!!!
you’re right, once you leave downtown/midtown, it rapidly becomes more suburban. But Charlotte doesn’t even have that.
“I’m a liberal yankee from up north (right from SF itself) and had NO BUSINESS being in suburban atlanta/rural georgia!!!”
…..and don’t you forget it! The difference between a Yankee and a DAMN Yankee is…..a Yankee leaves and goes home. LOL
Boss Hogg is alive and well in Dixie…..
(at least where my inlaws live, in the southern part of the city off Providence)
That’s where we lived; High Ridge Road to be precise. When I was there not only was Providence only two lanes in that area, it had passing zones!
Pass the bubbly,
Charlotte has changed quite a bit since you were here. We have lived in charlotte several times, starting in 1990. Small town, wanted to be a big city. Back again several years later. Bigger town, still the same issues you talked about. Back again two more times(last time 2002). Still what you describe, but started changing. By the time we left last year, droves of New Yorkers and other yankees cashing in and buying mcmansions. Some of these folks lived in a 1200sq ft 50 year old homes. They hit the jackpot. So, the northerners did come. Problem is, now everyone wants them to leave! Talking with friends there, the influx of Floridians, and yankees cashing in on their new found wealth has halted. Contracts are being cancelled because they can’t sell their cash cow. It will be interesting to see what happens there.
I was there recently and had to stay uptown. The condo thing is out of control. I know several Charlotteans that own one to flip or rent out as an investment. The condo market is going to come crashing down on them! The restaurants and nightlife are pretty amazing now! Wish it was like that when I was young and lived there the first time! The city shut down after 5pm back then! They need to add some shopping, and then they’ll have a pretty decent city! There really isn’t any “we have to prove we’re a real city” complex anymore. Now there’s just the clash of cultures, the aggressive, loud New Yorker vs. the quietly, insult you with a smile on their face southerner. Guess who’s winning????
I lived in Charlotte 1988-93. I also went to college in-state, and still go back to various parts of it a couple times a year. For example in ‘06 I was around Charlotte, Gerrnsboro and the mountains. H.I. Clouseau, like you I was there over Xmas. It was about 55-60 degrees in the mountains and I got some great hikes in.
Lizziebeth, I believe by and large Charlotte has the same character it has had for at least the last 20+ years; only the height of the buildings DOWNtown (you will never get me to call it “up”) and the extent of the city limit have changed. The banking rivalry is stronger than ever, except they’re not called NCNB and First Union anymore. We need sports teams, we need new arenas, we need the Nascar hall of fame, we need to build 485, now we need it to be more lanes, we need taller buildings downtown, we need to be like all the other big places… it’s been that way for decades.
Compare this to Greensboro or Raleigh, or even Asheville, which all seem to be happier with what they are and understand growth for its own sake is not always good.
I have to say, I’ve lived all over and all have good and bad things about them. Atlanta had the traffic, Dallas had hot summers and crappy winters, San Fran was just too expensive, ……. I wouldn’t rank Charlotte any worse than any other city I’ve lived in…. I guess I try to find the positives a place has to offfer. You kind of have to do that when you relocate every two years.
Actually, I do know people who have moved to NC and others who wish to, but low-cost housing is a big reason why.
We live in Wilmington and there is no low cost housing anymore. We don’t know how people afford these homes here in Wilmington and the coast as the average family household income is a whopping $28000/year.
The city has been adversely affected by house prices being driven up and I am wondering what will happen when the new realestate taxes are levied from the reassesments that have not be done in 8 years due to previously flat or declining housing market. Plus the insurance increases form hurricanes. There is going to be some serious pain in the coming year.
Inspector,
Charlotte Real estate took a hit several years back. Especially the Mansions on the lake. You may remember, or your folks may, when NCNB and BofA merged. They moved all these california call center, menial job people to Charlotte. They cashed in on real estate out there. They came to Charlotte and bought mcmansions in Ballantyne, Lake Norman….. problem was, they did away with most of those positions and voila, empty mcmansions. Things have bounced back, but they can always go down. Especially since many of those homes are occupied by folks that are one paycheck away from losing them.
I wholeheartedly agree.
I’ve noticed an intereting thing about some of the southern cities: the outward appearances are VERY well kept up. Every lawn is manicured with significant landscaping. Even the highways are manicured.
The last time we drove from Raleigh/Durham to Tarboro, I couldn’t help but notice all the landscaping ON THE HIGHWAY.
My wife thinks it’s great (In MN, they just have a concrete median in the cities, in the rural areas it’s just prairie grass or pine/deciduous trees).
However, then you think about the COST to upkeep that… sheesh.
Then we remark about how people seem more “done up” in general. Most of the ladies wear makeup (usually a lot) and lots of perfume. Lots of luxury cars. Lots of “colonial style” mansions. (I don’t call them mcmansions because many of them really are quite nicely done). People seem just more… uh… formal? We had my in-law’s best friends over for xmas dinner… and we had to dress up! (in my house, if my best friends come over, it’s nice elastic jammies so that I can feel comfy when I overeat and pass out on the Lazyboy!)
then we hit Minneapolis, people cut their grass, and that’s usually about it. We go to even the nicer restaurants in just jeans. it’s just so much less formal.
So I wonder if people in Charlotte are more leveraged? they certainly don’t make the kind of money that they appear to make. and yet everything is so “done.”
I’m not sure if that bodes well for Charlotte’s future or not. The need to look “good” may overwhelm common sense, and people might struggle to keep up appearances. or perhaps they’re so leveraged that it’s gonnd all come tumbling down.
That’s why we moved back to Florida! I hated the formality! I don’t want to get all decked out to go to the grocery store. We don’t need to drive expensive cars or wear expensive clothes.
The main concern was for our children. The competition with ipods, abercrobie clothes, birthday parties… was out of control. I tried to explain to my children that just because people have things doesn’t mean they are rich. It just means they can get credit. It’s more casual and quite a bit less competitive! I can’t say in middle school there isn’t the comparing, but I think that age group is always comparing….Johnny’s parents let him do that…..
If you go further south down Providence to Union County formerly Weddington/horse country, everywhere you look are mcmansions! Pulte, Centex, Ryland 4000sqft homes for $450+. Hundreds of million dollar homes built on spec. The homes are going to crash there. We once read that only 2% of Charlotteans make over $200k. Most of that 2% will choose to live at the lake or in Meyers Park. It’s insane!
All in all though, we loved Charlotte and enjoyed living there. Have no complaints other than the materialism. We lived in Dallas and Raleigh. Same thing. Loved the cities, but hated the materialism. I guess it’s just our society today.
And all you mom and pop apt owners arein trouble too:
Sgarlato agreed and said that rental properties such as older duplexes and triplexes are tough to rent, and some of the older rental subdivisions are turning into “ghettos.” He said Park East and Spring Lake, two eastside communities with heavy rental property, have 30 percent of the units unleased. One of his clients sold six units about a year and a half ago because of the glutted market. Sgarlato added that many owners of rental units are having to give several months rent free to entice tenants and the monthly rates have gone down.
“If the market was like it was four years ago, we would get $650, but now we’re getting $575 and having to spend a lot to modernize,” Sgarlato said.
Smallman and newly elected District 1 Commissioner Doug Lowry said they both attended a 2006 forum in which an Athens banker said he has stopped issuing loans for apartment developments in Athens.
Interesting concept. Are we going to see the traditionally strong resale markets languish, lose value and decline in desirability as there is so much new product being sold off on the cheap? I could invision it happening here in Central Florida.
A new 3000 sf crap box vs. 1958 remodel in the core areas. Let’s see, 20 minutes drive time versus all new surroundings. And for 60% the cost. Yep.
The ongoing dynamics of this monster are simply mind boggling. Who woulda thunk?
Alan Grenspan ? .
Something else about the NC coast: it’s way overdue for a hurricane. Last one was 1999 (Floyd). The entire bubble happened while the NC coast was getting spared. They get one every few years, much more regularly, it seems, than any given part of Florida or the Gulf coast. I wonder what happens when a Caetgory 4 washes a place where property values are falling to begin with.
Thank God. Maybe they will stop building so that we can figure out how to address all the long-term damage (e.g. making the area less safe for hurricanes) the builders have done in the area.
I had a nice job offer in Charlotte about 3 years ago so we visited to look at homes. The mania was evident then. To get a home that would be comparable to our $250K home in our very nice area of Greenville, SC we would have had to pay about $450,000 to be in a decent area - with good public schools, $500K plus. The agent said that most people were using creative mortage financing to get into these properties. That, plus the crime rate and general feeling that people were not very happy in Charlotte (seemed stressed out, very nasty drivers on the roads) we passed on the job offer and I switched companies here and stayed put. Charlotte seems great for rich single people and childless couples, but not for families.
Good call. I personally would never leave Greenville, S.C. for Charlotte unless it were for double the pay. Cheaper, closer to the mountains, Charlotte isn’t really that big anyway.
I agree! I think Greenville is a wonderful place to live! I know many who moved back from Charlotte because they loved it so much! Hopefully all the folks moving in for cheap housing won’t ruin the character of Greenville though! By the way, there’s no such thing as a good public school in the Charlotte area. At best there are tolerable public schools. That’s why there are so many private schools.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070122/ap_on_fe_st/tiny_apartment
77sqft 335k insane they need mental help
“If you thought of this as the cabin on a boat, you’d say, ‘It’s pretty spacious,’ ”
(quote from broker) who needs to be commited
Back in the early 70’s when I lived in the UK and a similar property bubble to the one we have now was happening, a daily newspaper had banner headlines showing a picture of a run-down single car garage with the headline, “$20,000 for this!” (had to use $ sign but it was 10,000 pounds). Not long after the market went south.
Funny how things change - but nothing changes. The UK isn’t what it was 25 years ago. It’s a haven for money from all over the world because of the City of London which is basically the financial hub of europe. However, the UK is also now a haven for laundering money. Especially Russia. A lot of that money has gone into property. Like the US, the UK (which is really the 51st State but off-shore) really doesn’t make anything anymore that the world wants to buy - except paper.
Maybe it’s a new world we have entered where Asia makes “stuff” and the west prints money to buy “stuff” and/or property to flip every few years. Certainly starting to look like it but I sure hope that wasn’t Mr. Magoo Greenspan’s great financial plan for the world.
That’s about it. It sums perfectly why the bubble is soo “solid”. But, if ever, places like Russia, the Middle East or Africa, get in order their affairs, the bottom will fall under the City.
£10,000
Absurd.
- “Now, none of this means that the local housing market is crashing. But it appears that something has to give.
- Either prices have to come down, or wages have to go up.
Finally, the truth is spoken.
“He cited the proliferation of condominiums, largely marketed to students, as a building factor that has affected the apartment market to some extent.”
Marketing to students????? What’s next, marketing to HS students. Kids will say “Hey, I have a car….why can’t I have a condo?”
And to take it to a higher level of absurdity…..the ad reads:
“Congratulations on the arrival of your bundle of joy! In 20 or 30 years they will thank you for purchasing a condo of their very own. Today is a great day to buy!”
Yes, marketing to students. A lot of those condos are graduation gifts from Mommy and Daddy. “Economic outpatient assistance” at its worst.
Friends of ours bought a condo in Northern VA four miles from a four year university when their baby was born 18 years ago. It has been a rental all this time. Now some of the equity pays for college and she lives there rent free. This week she asked if she sublet the basement to another college student, could she keep that rent as income. Well you know the answer!!
I pity this kid’s neighbors. Nothing like having college parties in your condo complex.
Check out the latest Economic and Real Estate Trends (ERET) –
PMI’s Market Outlooks Newsletter. I think they may have published it at the beginning of the month for fall 06. What I find interesting is that it to a percentage that predicts the probability of a house price decline over the next two years in Atlanta to be over 20%. This is more than they have listed for Denver, Charlotte, Dallas, Houston, Cleveland, and Cincinnati (all of which have been in the news lately for record foreclosure rates). The risk measures are based on appreciation increases in home prices for the previous and current year (based on quarterly OFHEO HPI); acceleration of the change in home price appreciation; and employment growth rate calculated with Bureau of Labor Statistics total non-agricultural employment monthly observations, from the indicated months (12-month growth rate).
I can’t wait to see the next quarter’s newsletter.
http://www.pmi-us.com/lenders/eret.html
others have atlanta as gowing up ?
what are cme futures ?
money talks
others have atlanta as gowing up ?
All Spin.
what are cme futures ?
There are none listed for Atlanta that I can find on their website.
Do you realize the amount of fraud and how many IO loans have been used to purchase/refi loans in Atlanta in the past few years?
You might be on to something, Dan. Talk about your cradle to grave mortgages, another inventive way to sell one’s soul to the company store.
Did everyone notice the: 10-YEAR TREASURY NOTE - 4.82 this morning. This will cause even more pain for residential real estate as mortgage rates continue to climb higher.
Doubt there would have been much of a housing bubble under this scenario:
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=846
Excellent article.
Good read. Too bad the house he dubs, “Affordable first house. Buy with pride.” probably costs in the upper $200s in my area. Not what I call affordable (though, in theory, a home like this SHOULD be).
“Hogan adds that the building industry is a self-regulating type of business “
This is a joke, right?
I bet if you surveyed the mission statements of businesses all over the world, you will not find a single one that says “grow our business to a sustainable volume and then maintain a stable equilibrium.” The corporate model is predicated on unrestricted, cancer-like growth, not self-regulation.
And it always kill the patient at the end. It’s more like a virus or bacteria. Investment manias have a pattern very similar to a infectuous disease. It’s a plague manufactured by the central bankers. Mad monetary science.