“Everybody Understands That The Market Has Softened”
The LA Times reports from California. “The number of Californians defaulting on their mortgage loans is rising rapidly, according to figures released Tuesday, providing striking evidence that more people are at risk of losing their homes. Default notices jumped 145% in the last three months of 2006, accelerating a trend that began in late 2005 as home sales started to cool.”
“It was the largest number of default notices in any three-month period since 1998.”
“James Brown, a retired insurance agent in Salinas, Calif., has a history of heart trouble. When he had an operation in 2005, he said, ‘the doctor gave me a 50-50 chance I’d die on the table. So I did a stupid thing: I refinanced the house.’”
“Brown’s goal in tapping his equity was to give his wife, Monica, a $100,000 cushion after his death. But he didn’t read the paperwork carefully, and didn’t realize that his monthly loan payment would skyrocket.”
“There was also a problem with the operation: It worked. A year or two earlier, that would have been nothing but good news. In the early part of the decade, Brown recalled, ‘property values went crazy.’ ‘People pulled up in Silicon Valley and went to Salinas, and paid here what they had been paying there,’ he said.”
“But Brown awoke to a different world. With the new loan, his payments went to $4,500 a month from $2,900. The $100,000 in equity he pulled out of the house went to his medical expenses and other bills.”
“The property has dropped in value to $750,000 from $899,000, leaving him without enough equity to refinance. He arranged to sell the place, but the prospective buyers couldn’t qualify for a mortgage. In September he gave up and stopped paying the mortgage. He’s now in default, speeding toward foreclosure.”
“‘Three times a week, they call and say, ‘Where’s my money?’ he said. ‘If I hadn’t survived, everything would have been fine.’”
“‘People are living on the edge, and they can’t help it with the price of houses,’ said Barbara Swist, a Costa Mesa mortgage broker who is helping Brown sort through his options. ‘They have good jobs but they bought over their heads, buying into the American dream.’”
The Press Enterprise. “There were 7,678 defaults filed against home and condominium owners in Riverside and San Bernardino counties in the fourth quarter, compared to 3,080 in the same quarter of 2005. Defaults have increased 181 percent in Riverside County and 140 percent in San Bernardino County. Riverside, Tulare and Merced counties were the most likely locations for defaults, Dataquick reported.”
“Homeowners in Inland Southern California and the Central Valley were the most at risk because of a concentration of first-time buyers who were forced to settle for mortgages with riskier terms.”
The Press Democrat. “Next month, the century-old Chauvet Hotel in Glen Ellen will reopen as ‘The Chauvet,’ a collection of six luxury condominiums currently priced from $1.15 million to $1.3 million.”
“Some wonder who’ll buy upscale condominiums in the heart of a tiny Wine Country village best known as the home of author Jack London. ‘Where are all these millionaires coming from?’ asked Sue Separk, walking her dog a block away.”
The Record.net. “The number of existing homes on the market has been plunging since summertime because of slow sales, and property managers now report a surge in the number of homes hitting the rental market.”
“Jerry Abbott, co-owner of Coldwell Banker Grupe in Stockton, said many sales-market dropouts are investors who couldn’t sell and now need some cash flow for mortgage payments.”
“Norbert Huston, a Stockton real estate broker who manages rentals, said he gets three calls per day from homeowners wanting him to rent out their properties, up from maybe three calls per week a year ago.”
“Diane Starr, owner of Starr Property Management in Stockton, said the rental housing market is tough now, with more houses for rent than there are potential renters. Demand starts plummeting for houses at the $1,300-per-month mark, she said.”
“During the housing boom, many renters became homeowners, she said, while nowadays, competition has jumped among rental-home owners for too few renters. ‘We traded one problem for another,’ Starr said.”
The Orange County Register. “Lennar Corp. is asking its homebuilding subcontractors to cut their current charges by 5 percent or more or face a minimum six-month ban on bidding for work, a company executive said.”
“The builder, one of the bigger developers in Orange County with plans to build up to 9,500 homes in the former El Toro Marine Base, began circulating letters and meeting with subcontractors earlier this month seeking cuts that reflect lower home prices, said Jeff Roos, Lennar’s Southwestern U.S. Regional Vice President.”
“‘As our customers continue to pay us a lower price for our homes, we must in turn pay you a lower price for your services,’ said a letter circulated to subcontractors in Lennar’s Orange Coast, Corona, Temecula and Palm Springs divisions.”
“‘Every builder is doing the same thing,’ added Roos, who works in Aliso Viejo. ‘Everybody understands that the market has softened.’”
“Some subcontractors said they’ve already cut their asking prices because the housing slowdown is leading to stiffer competition for work.”
“Shea Homes also is seeking cuts from subcontractors, said Michael Bobeczko of Sukut Construction, California’s largest earthmoving contractor, but hasn’t issued similar warnings about being excluded from future bidding. ‘The homebuilders are in a tough spot, so they’re doing everything they can to cut costs,’ said Bobeczko.”
The Sacramento Bee. “The home auction spectacle that began last year with impatient sellers aiming to cut their losses has expanded to home builders: The region’s first auction of new houses is scheduled for Feb. 3 in Elk Grove.”
“Irvine-based Standard Pacific Corp. will sell four model homes and two nearly finished houses to the high bidders at a live auction, company officials said Tuesday. Analysts say it marks the reappearance in California of a tactic employed by builders during the state’s 1990s housing bust.”
“‘This is a fast, efficient way for us to close out and complete the project,’ said Jackie Shipley, the firm’s VP of sales and marketing. ‘We feel like we’ve had a lot of success in that community. … It’s important for us to do this and move on.’”
“Minimum bids will range from $430,000 to $530,000 for the four- and five-bedroom houses in a new neighborhood near Elk Grove’s Franklin High School. The builder’s minimums are well below market highs reached during construction of the subdivision. Early last year resale versions of the smallest $430,000 price tag sold for up to $546,000 on the next street, according to Zillow.com.”
“‘It’s very difficult and expensive to draw traffic to those models to try and sell them, and we want to move our sales staff to Roseville,’ said Jon Nicholson, president of Standard Pacific’s Sacramento division.”
“The firm begins sales in Roseville next month for a 115-home project called Monet at Diamond Creek.”
“Carmichael-based West Coast Home Auctions, which will auction the houses in an Elk Grove hotel conference room, said the builder’s decision is an indicator of slow home sales in a market with more supply than demand.”
“‘When you’ve got some excess supply, this is another avenue for home builders to take,’ said Rick Baldonado, a building industry analyst.”
‘With the new loan, his payments went to $4,500 a month from $2,900. The $100,000 in equity he pulled out of the house went to his medical expenses and other bills. The property has dropped in value to $750,000 from $899,000, leaving him without enough equity to refinance. He arranged to sell the place, but the prospective buyers couldn’t qualify for a mortgage. In September he gave up and stopped paying the mortgage. He’s now in default, speeding toward foreclosure.’
‘Three times a week, they call and say, ‘Where’s my money?’ he said. ‘If I hadn’t survived, everything would have been fine.’
I don’t know how his dying would have improved the expensive mortgage. Maybe he has life insurance?
‘People are living on the edge, and they can’t help it with the price of houses,’ said Barbara Swist, a Costa Mesa mortgage broker who is helping Brown sort through his options. ‘They have good jobs but they bought over their heads, buying into the American dream.’
I wonder if Ms. Swist contributed to that stampede?
I guess in California an old say has to be changed…The only things that are certain in life are death, taxes AND skyrocketing mortgage payments.
I have decided the California state moto needs updating also:
Old:The Golden State
New: The Gold Plated State
Nice. But that’s our way here - what’s the first major event in California history since the US “annexed” this land from Mexico? The Gold Rush. Thousands of people flocking to the mountains to literally pound sand in search of wealth. And the only ones that benefitted were the middlemen or first movers. 150 years later and nobody is learning from history. Substitute gold with tech stocks and now real estate.
You mean it stole it from Mexico with violence.
That war started over Texas, and most texans preffered US control over Mexican. California was the cost to Mexico of fighting over Texas. Remember the Alamo?
And the Aztecs “negotiated” with their neighbors using peaceful persuasion.
When the Mexican army defeats the US Army in war, I will gladly surrender and fly the Mexican flag. not very likely is it.
don’t complain. Presidente Lopez de Santa Anna was their guy, not ours.
And there was actually some compensation paid to him, so technically it was a purchase. At that time (February 1848) it was considered essentially worthless land, and everyone was happy with the deal.
Face it, all the talk about “stealing” is modern days’ propaganda.
No it’s not. You tried the same thing to the North in 1812. It backfired and the British burned Washington in retaliation. Stop thinking that you are just good guys. I have noticed how the US, (no, not the nation but the bastards in Washington) is “loved” in South America. Just kidding.
Same comment for the Middle East.
Washington was burned because York (Toronto) had just been burned buy the “good” guys. It’s not always about Quebec.
Mr. Authier,
None of us were born in 1812. I have no present guilt over historical events. (Also, my ancestors fought on every side, so which one should I wring my hands over today?)
Sounds like a sore loser on this site. We can deal with it.
A couple Fin du Mondes should help him chill.
Marc, why so concerned about USA history…what happened in La Belle France to cause your ancestors to flee to the New World?
I hate the US stole California or Texas propaganda the illegals are spouting.
We stole it from Santa Anna. Who was stealing it from the Spanish. Who stole it from the Myan and Aztecks.
We are the last and most glorious of the theives.
Do you think life would be any better on the rule of the Mexican government asshats?
All those fricking illeagals are here complaining about the US stole California. Basically now that we have a nice aqueduct, roads, housing, schools, health care and reasonably low crime; they’d just like us to revert back to the particular spot in history where THEY happened to “control” this area. Nice fantasy. Basically they are looking for some kind of handout.
Hell, there are more mexican decendants here now then probably anypoint in history living better than they would in mexico. Not including the illegals.
Anyhow, BEFORE you go and assume anything about me. My plan is for giving the illegals status in the US.
However, I’d like to see the rights of Americans less restricted in Mexico and allow us to buy property as we please. Right now they have the more restrictive policy and we have the right to complain.
Anyhow, MA… we’re the bad guys.
From Wikpedia:
While captive in Texas, Mr. Poinsett—a minister to Mexico in 1824—offered a harsh assessment of General Santa Anna’s situation, stating:
“Say to General Santa Anna that when I remember how ardent an advocate he was of liberty ten years ago, I have no sympathy for him now, that he has gotten what he deserves.”
To this message, Santa Anna made the reply:
“Say to Mr. Poinsett that it is very true that I threw up my cap for liberty with great ardor, and perfect sincerity, but very soon found the folly of it. A hundred years to come my people will not be fit for liberty. They do not know what it is, unenlightened as they are, and under the influence of a Catholic clergy, a despotism is the proper government for them, but there is no reason why it should not be a wise and virtuous one.”
So. The territory should be given back to the next available crackpot?
All land was appropriated from the previous occupant by the current occupants. Mexicans were like the 70 thousandth owners of the southwest.
Anyway if we gave it back it would be wrecked by the end of the week! Look at Tijuana! omg!
Damn…I make a joke about Cali being the Goldplated State and somebody has to bring up the Mexican / American War….talk about off subject!
The Mexicans just need to be glad the US Army stopped at the Rio Grande and decided not to all the way to Mexico City like some wanted..to compare to modern times if the current prez had only learned from his fathers decision not to invade a sh*thole.
The whole California was stolen thing is bogus…maybe Spain needs to return all the gold that was plundered from the Aztec, Inca and Maya.
Get a clue, get a life and discuss the housing bubble!
“Free-doom” fries anyone ? Boy ! It’s soo fun to see all the comments by the superior race.
James posts “Do you think life would be any better on the rule of the Mexican government asshats? ”
Mexico is the most corrupt nation on earth. I do not say this lightly or with out thought, it is true.
“It’s soo fun to see all the comments by the superior race.”
This makes no sense to me? The US is made up of every race on the planet…
All land was appropriated from the previous occupant by the current occupants. Mexicans were like the 70 thousandth owners of the southwest.
True, this discussion of who owned what first leads nowhere. If you go all the way back, well the Neanderthal should own Europe. People have moved and land has changed hands since time immemorial. Whoever thinks today’s borders are fixed forever never read a history book. Some things are bigger than race and nationality, and the costs and benefits cut both ways.
Good point Cassiopeia. Never denied that. I was paraphrasing an expression, just to say stop behaving like arrogant sh-ts. Some of you Americans are soo darn arrogant with the rest of the world. Makes me think of that slob called “Rumsfeld” that scoffed at “Old Europe” for not going along in Irak. It’s true USA is a paradise of honesty and good management, like last year in New Orleans with Katrina, in real estate or on Wall Street.
RayW: Your comment about the housing bubble being just the latest incarnation of the peculiarly Californian gold-rush mentality is spot on. I just finished an excellent book, “The Age of Gold: The California Gold Rush and the New American Dream,” by H.W. Brands. It made the same point that you’re making — that the Gold Rush spawned progeny right down to the tech bubble. (The subsequent housing bubble was still developing while Brands was writing the book.)
What’s not spot on:
“The Mexicans just need to be glad the US Army stopped at the Rio Grande and decided not to all the way to Mexico City like some wanted”
Dude — the U.S. Army *did* go all the way to Mexico City. And conquered it. President Polk seriously considered annexing the whole country, which would have done all of us a lot of good. (As 31 new American states, Mexico would have developed into something other than the corrupt dysfunctional place it is now, and there’d be no problem with illegal immigration.) Anti-slavery northerners, however, believed that annexing Mexico would result in the creation of new slave states (which might or might not have been true) and rejected the idea.
It’s not disputed that Mexico fired the first shots in the 1845 war. My thinking is that any country foolish enough to (a) put Santa Anna in charge nine times and (b) picked a fight with Jacksonian-era America, can’t complain when it gets thumped.
Fine, the U.S. invaded Canada in the War of 1812 against Britain. Since Britannia ruled the waves (except when their frigates went one-on-one with ours, in which case they got whupped), we could hardly invade England itself in response to the hostile British acts (kidnapping American sailors, supporting hostile Indians) that kicked the 1812 war off in the first place. Canada was the next-best thing, tho’ it didn’t go all that well.
Just kidding.
Marc Authier
Everything you say is so interesting, objective and insightful ……
Just Kidding
Americans are most certainly the second most arrogant people on Earth.
The French holding the top spot, of course (those goofs holed up somewhere in Canada count, too).
Objectivity ? Very funny !
The “enlightened” need to be reminded Bush won by a very small margin in 2000, and roughly 50% of Americans were horrified with the direction the USA was headed in 2004. Bush again won by a small amount. This last November, power was voted into the hands of the OTHER party and now Bush’s approval rating is 35%.
Please don’t generalize. Millions upon millions of Americans have been opposed to the current administration’s actions from day one.
Thomas: I LOVE that book. And yes, he did make the point about how the Gold Rush changed the American Dream from a slow-and-steady-work-the-farm mentality to I-could-get-rich-quick.
It’s a mirage, not an oasis.
Lets stop with the politics please.
There are some places that have a legitimate beef with being in the U.S.
1.) The former Confederacy. Lincoln was an asshat dictator that deserved his fate. Slavery would’ve become obsolete anyway with the Industrial Revolution. Thomas Jefferson stated that if a group of citizens should want to overthrow their elected government, they should be allowed to. That is democracy. Think of how much better the South would be today if it didn’t have all the illegal immigration today from f***ing northeasterners.
2.) Hawaii-overthrew the monarchy in a coup instigated by American corporations that had monetary interests in the island (e.g. Dole), a bit like what the U.S. did to install a Nazi sympathizer as the Shah in Iran. What’s going on in California now by Mexicans are what Americans did in Hawaii via entryism. Karma’s a b****.
3.) Alaska-became a part of the union by an illegal vote in 1958. Military from the continental U.S. voted in the 1958 ballot for the territory to become a state. This is illegal, as they are not citizens of the territory and therefore should have no vote in its future. Since the population of Alaska is very small, the military had a very large influence. (the ballot was to remain a territory, become a separate country, become like Puerto Rico, or become a state). see http://www.akip.org for more details.
There are several other independence movements today, all of which I wish the best and hope to succeed, although I’m a realist: Vermont, the South, California, Texas, Alaska, Hawaii, Cascadia (Oregon/Washington State/British Colombia).
“The Yankees are a wonderful people–wonderful! Wherever they go, they make improvements. If they were to emigrate in large numbers to hell itself, they would irrigate it, plant trees and flower gardens, build reservoirs and fountains and make everything beautiful and pleasant, so that by the time we get there, we can sit down at a marble topped table and eat ice cream.”
– Lt. Mariano Guadalupe Vallejo
^ A lot presumably changes in 100 years. The people that run our country today are positively French instead of that old-type American that de Tocqueville mythologized: arrogant, philosophical instead of pragmatic, unrelenting, and bankrupt. Lets be bluntly honest: if the best our country can do for leadership is George W. Bush and John Kerry, the country is f***ed. I may even move to Tijuana. It would be more enjoyable there.
Met this lady and she was telling me about her 900K home she had to sell due to higher mrtg payment and property tax due. Sadly (for her) she also borrowed on her equity $15Ok to pay off her credit cards( LOL! $150K holy smokes!)
She doesnt plan to break even! (Oh Yea!)
She did drive a nice MBenz and was wearing some nice rags. She was partying up in the City last Sat nite when I met her and we had this small chat. She was with a crowd, i bet were in similar circumstances….
Some people in SF are living way beyond their means. Just had to share with the blog readers.
Maybe someone can help me here expand my knowledge. Wouldn’t that $150K be taxable as it wasn’t used for home improvements, yea, maybe a portion and added not added to cost basis of house?
Regarding the causal factors of the US -Mexican war of 1846.
The reason Mexico CHOSE TO FIGHT THE US WAS BECAUSE OF THE ANNEXATION OF TEXAS WHICH WAS THE CHOICE OF THE TEXANS. MEXICO NEVER RECOGNIZED TEXAS’S INDEPENDENCE, AND CHOSE TO FIGHT WITH A FAR STRONGER, MORE MARTIAL REPUBLIC, AND GOT IT’S ASS KICKED. BTW, THE RUTHLESS ENSLAVEMENT AND BLOODY SACRIFICES OF CAPTIVE PEOPLES BY THE AZTECS IS WELL KNOWN. MEXICO WAS A WEAK FLEDGLING REPUBLIC AT THE TIME OF THE US-MEX WAR AND WAS IN HOCK TO THE OLD EUOROPEAN POWERS FOR DEBTS OWED. GREAT BRITAIN WOULD HAVE IN ALL LIKELIHOOD TAKEN CALIFORNIA AS PAYMENT FOR DEBTS OWED BY THE MEX REPUBLIC, SO IT WAS BETTER US OBTAINED CALIFORNIA BEFORE A WEAK SAPPY MEX REPUBLIC LOST IT TO GB.
US HISTORY FROM THE MOMENT JAMESTOWN WAS SETTLED UP TO CUSTERS DEFEAT AT THE BIGHORN WAS A CONTINUOUS SERIES OF BATTLES ALONG THE FRONTIERS AGAINST THE NATIVE INDIANS. HAS ANYONE PROPOSED THAT WE ‘STOLE THE LAND FROM THER INDIANS’ AND THEREFORE SHOULD GIVE IT ALL BACK! THE NONSENSICAL MEXICAN CLAIMS THAT THE US ‘STOLE THE SOUTHWEST FROM MEXICO ARE NOTHING BUT TYPICAL BS PROPAGANDA FROM HISPANIC ACTIVISTS, ABOUT AS BS AS HITLERS CHARGE THAT GERMANY WAS STABBED IN THE BACK IN WWI BY A JEWISH CONSPIRACY.
It is not income, it is a loan. If she can make money off of the deal then there are tax implications, but debt for debt only “seems” like income.
Speaking of the Middle East, who were to morons who drew up those boundaries back in the 1940’s? Their children and grandchildren should be flogged mercilessly for that stupidity
cmhappyrenter…..you have a point about the gain being taxed if not used to increase the cost basis of the house, except it would be capital gains tax (not income) and it would have to be over $250,000 for a single and $500,000 for a married couple.
Fun to see all the self-loathing Americans. People must think the world came already equipped with little text labels for each country…
As for the Mideast, the “country” of Jordan was created by the British in 1921.
The “country” of Iraq was created by the British in 1919.
The “country” of Syria was created by France in 1921.
The “country” of Lebanon was created by France in 1920.
The “country” of Saudi Arabia is another British manufacture, Churchill appointed a “king” (Faisal) in 1921.
The “houses” in California are too expensive stated by RayW in 2007
There is a report in the Contra Costa Times this morning that foreclosures in Alameday, Contra Costa and Solano counties are skyrocketing….
‘If I hadn’t survived, everything would have been fine.’
In that case, he just should have told his doc to make sure and botch the job. That makes no sense.
Re: mortgage insurance - does that have to be bought at the time of the original commitment, or can it be acquired at any time for the duration of the loan?
Not an expert, but I believe lenders require it for all loans above 80% LTV. You can request to drop it once you’ve paid down/appreciated past the point if you put less than 20% down. But I don’t know if it works in reverse (i.e. somebody puts 20% down, home depreciates 10%, will the lender require it?). Also not sure how they work it around piggybacks.
That’s why they do piggybacks. The higher rate on the second costs less than PMI on the total.
“That’s why they do piggybacks. The higher rate on the second costs less than PMI on the total.”
Plus piggyback = no downpayment.
“his payments went to $4,500…The property has dropped in value to $750,000 from $899,000″
What’s the problem here? He bought a house for a dollar less than $900,000. He MUST have been rich, because that is almost a million dollar purchase, and ‘average Joe Shmoes’ can’t afford to spend almost a million dollars. Don’t worry, he’ll be fine with his $4,500 a month mortgage payment. That’s chump change to people that can afford million dollar houses…right?
Yeah. Exactly how long did he expect his wife to be able to maintain a million-dollar-house lifestyle with a “100,000 dollar cushion”?
Its all BS. If he really wanted to take care of his wife, he would have had life insurance and health insurance and possibly a less expensive house.
The biggest thing I take from this Deal is that there was a crappy house in SALINAS worth $899,000.00. Geez, the insanity!
Ben, good point on Ms. Swist. These brokers make me mad like you would not believe. Lately I’ve been seeing commercials from Ameriquest, E-Loan, Ditech, etc, all telling people to call about switching to a fixed rate so that they won’t get crushed. These are the a$$hats that were pusing adjustables 24-7. Good deal for the brokers, as they screw their clients coming and going. This whole bubble is gotten downright disgusting. The b.s. has gotten so deep that I wonder when we’ll see the light of day again. Everything this blog was predicting is starting to come true. The sad thing is that it doesn’t take a genius to know that something was rotten in Denmark. The stupidity of the human race knows no bounds. All these present day articles read just like they did in the early 90s. Everyone is just so surprised, people got in over their heads (ya think!), ad nauseum. Let this mother effer implode already.
CA Guy so right. However, you forgot that these “poor” souls are gonna pay through the nose to refi, if they even can. Most of us realize that the prepayments on these toxic loans can break most of these already stretched home debtors, to the tune of anywhere from 10-20K. Come to the table with that or wrapt into another mortgage. Oh, I forgot the house isn’t worth the original ARM mortgage, there is no way to roll that prepayment penalty into a new one.
CA, I am also with you on how disguting these brokers are. If they don’t get you in the front door, they get in the back, or vice versa or both. What scum! Forget gov’t oversight, people just need to stop buying and these jokers will go away.
Radio advertisement in Dallas/Ft Worth TX area today:
30 year, I/O for the first 15 years.
I guess they are setting up for the refi boom-let 15 years from now
Holy sh*t, that’s worse than renting!
Thanks for pointing something out, OCDan. Last night, when one of the Ameriquest commercials was playing, I turned to my wife and said, “Too bad they won’t be able to refi because their value dropped below what they owe.”
You are so right. Many are stuck in whatever product they have, due to declining values or prepayment penalties. I’m just wondering what lenders will attempt in order to keep all these loans from defaulting.
This is where a bit more fraud comes into the picture. With so many people left with the option of either losing the house or re-financing based on a fraudulent appraisal (putting the house at more than it’s really worth), it’s easy to see the choice many will make.
They’ll make a deal for the FB’s to do lawn and yard care of the REO’s on their books
I would call up the lender with the pre-pay and ask them to wave it so I could get another loan so I won’t go into foreclosure . Now faced with a foreclosure or waving a pre-pay, that should of never been on there to begin with ,might be what a lender should do in alot of cases .
Agreed, and many will. However, who makes the call on whether to waive the pre-pay penalty if the bank sold the loan? I don’t imagine that MBS holders will be too keen on waiving that pre-payment penalty, but maybe I’m wrong.
Has anyone else noticed that Ditech’s rates (along presumably with other sub-prime lenders) have gone through the roof–independent of the general interest rates? Several years ago, Ditech actually provided among the lowest rates for home mortgages–much lower than Wells Fargo, BofA, etc. Now, they are often times more expensive than their competitors. Maybe this is how they intend to reverse loan losses…by sticking it to creditworthy buyers due to the collapsing sub-prime market.
Scum, all them pond scum. As Dustin Hoffman said as Cpt. Cook in Pan, “Kill them, Kill them all.”
I noticed this also… they appear to be living on their past reputation for lower rates.
Risk premiums appear to be moving back to where they should have always been. The secondary market for these loans must be drying up considerably.
I’m assuming Ditech makes their money by originating and selling the loans, not by collecting interest. If so, the increase in rates is simply an effect of the market for the purchase of these notes. They can’t make money if they can’t sell the paper, and they can’t sell the paper if the buyers aren’t getting the premium that they expect for the risk involved.
“All these present day articles read just like they did in the early 90s”.
What is so unreal to me is that with the technology that we have today, with the internet you would think more people would have clued in sooner.
I am still reading on some public forums peoples bewilderment on questioning why their over priced POS is not selling. All they need to do is dig a big deeper and find sites like this and so many others.
This site is fantastic btw, thanks so much Ben.
SKB
I guess they were to busy off buying luxury cars and trips abroad to bother to log in.
SKB, what forums? I’m curious and would like to read the blather… Thanks.
What is so unreal to me is that with the technology that we have today, with the internet you would think more people would have clued in sooner.
You can lead a horse’s ass to knowledge, but you can’t make him think.
Greed has a lot to do with it for most people. For others that bought, IMO, it is the herd-mentality. These people, including the so-called smart ones (professionals), did not for a moment stop and think can I really afford it. Forget reading and researching on the internet. I’m sure everyone has friends that when told about the real issues with buying chose to ignore the warnings. Any normal (meaning financially responsible) person would have stopped and asked more or atleast questioned the premises. But no they had to go ahead and buy or be “priced out forever”
I had two friends that bought at almost the peak in West LA and Pasadena. Both are 2BR condos. One is single and the other is married. At least both of them have 20% down. But they are broke most of the time and having a difficult time in meeting other regular expenses. I feel for my friends but at the end of the day my suggestion to them is cut and run.
Things could indeed get really get ugly. But with a steady supply of GFs in West LA/ SM the pace of the souring will slow. IMO, spring will be interesting.
All these present day articles read just like they did in the early 90s. Everyone is just so surprised, people got in over their heads (ya think!), ad nauseum. Let this mother effer implode already.
Rotfl. How is it a suprise. When my relatives try to tell me they didn’t know about this I’ll go “what about that dinner in summer 2006? Christmas?
This will get ugly.
Neil
This will get ugly.
Neil
It already has. No popcorn?
No popcorn?
I rushed my typing. I’m stocked.
It just amazes me people can pretend they didn’t see this happening. My favorite is to just point out that my industry is now priced out of the region forever.
Got popcorn?
Neil
If you ever question if people really can be so stupid, just go to a casino. In Vegas there are giant rooms with over 2000 positions all full with people giving away there money. A lot of these are smart people, a lot of these are people who work hard for their money and cant afford to lose it. But 24 hours a day the casinos are full of people paying to watch spinning dials on a video screen. One time there was a navy ship in town, and the whole casino was full of navy guys up all night losing their money. and these guys dont make a lot of money to begin with.
If you ever question whether people would be stupid enough to buy JDSU at $200, or a california POS at $600,000; just spend a night in vegas. people ARE that stupid.
“One time there was a navy ship in town”
Where the heck did it dock? Next to that pirate ship?
How the heck did a navy ship get all the way to Vegas?
Now THAT is running aground.
ROTFLMAO!
Well… I heard about being drunk like a sailor… but that takes the cake!
It is disgusting. I still maintain my belief that half the country spends every waking hour trying to screw the other half. And this country is loaded with morons to screw every day.
Disgusting is right.
This country has morons and corruption from sea to polluted sea.
Cheer up ! It’s the same elsewhere !:)
Well Duh! 50% of people are smarter than the other 50%. Predator and prey…
(1) So, here we have a retired insurance guy that don’t read the fine print in contracts, huh? Hmmm…
(2) People going on with ‘It’ll be different this time’…Yup, it will. Much worse. Instead of making paupers, people go straight to homeless. (You know, you didn’t have to roll those dice.)
“Brown’s goal in tapping his equity was to give his wife, Monica, a $100,000 cushion after his death.
Even worse. If I’m reading this right, he thought he could increase the size of his estate by borrowing money? Hello?
He was trying to borrow enough money to get out of debt.
Costa Mesa is hundreds of miles from Salinas. I wonder where he found her?
Lending Tree?
fiveseals posts ” Lending Tree? ”
No good, we need money trees!
That is what all of these FBs and GFs thought they had. Money Trees. Turns out that they had Lemon Trees, very pretty …
Well I do need a hair cut
“‘Three times a week, they call and say, ‘Where’s my money?’ he said. ‘If I hadn’t survived, everything would have been fine.’”
It kinda sucks when you are kind of wishing you bit the dust….
A new type of malpractice lawsuit? You made me live longer than my assets so I am going to sue you!
I have seen crazier lawsuits than that. You might be on to something.
‘Three times a week, they call and say, ‘Where’s my money?’ he said. ‘If I hadn’t survived, everything would have been fine.’
Dying for that new Home?
Then try….
Ditech’s NEW “Stiff-ARM” Loans
- No upfront cost
- No income verification
- No pulse? NO problem.. We understand!
Ditech….
We say “YES”… when you no longer can.
‘People are living on the edge, and they can’t help it with the price of houses,’ said Barbara Swist, a Costa Mesa mortgage broker who is helping Brown sort through his options. ‘They have good jobs but they bought over their heads, buying into the American dream.’
If they were dealing with a first mortgage they would have had some cushion for their primary residence in BK proceedings, but when they decided on taking out the HELOC that option went away. Of course his broker, a professional sworn to a code of ethics, warned his ailing client of these consequences before preparing the HELOC paperwork, right?
They actually see this as good?
http://www.inman.com/hstory.aspx?ID=61655
Increasing sales and decreasing price; sounds like panic selling in the first stages of a catastrophic collapse.
Credit squeeze.
The credit squeeze has only begun.
Not until 10% down payments are expected on anything non-FHA (and their loan limits are below my level of interest) and 20%+ for a “jumbo.” Who the heck loans out $1.0M without some skin in the game?
And FHA charges 0.5%/12 of the loan amount every month for insurance… so its not like there isn’t a penalty for getting that loan. (50 basis points every year! ouch!)
But this will take forever.
Whatever you do, don’t buy in 2007.
Got popcorn?
Neil
ps
I’m not a fence sitter, I’m a spectator!
Got popcorn?
Neil
Thank God for popcorn!
Oh, don’t be cheap, champagne anyone?
Champagne I’m saving for two events:
1. My upcoming wedding.
2. When home prices are sane.
Until then,
Got popcorn?
Neil
Neil, congrats on your wedding. Mine was long ago, and if prices get sane I won’t have champagne, I’ll a straight shot of tequila, which I’ve never done before.
Neil,
Happy Wedding!
Hubby and I are saving Champagne for when Fairfax Co., VA, inventory hits 10K. It was up to 8,500 last Summer and we were so close. Hopefully the Champagne will last ’til this Summer.
The # of sales was up less than 1%, the price drop, however, was significant.
It’s all good, because this is the best of all possible worlds.
Signed,
Leibniz
let’s see, inventory up by 100%, sales up by 1%, and this is positive news? sounds like a 99% decrease to me.
I am wondering now …..How does an aquaintance of mine doing with his Santa Ana “loft’? He bought with a good price around 2003, but refinanced in 2005 and I KNOW that place is not worth 650,000.00 Not today it ain’t. (The website for the place STILL lists that price. Crazy)
Ah, yes, lofts. There’s a lot of ballyhooing about lofts here in Tucson. As far as I can tell, they’re ordinary structures with lofty price tags.
You should see some of the lofts around Phoneix. I looked at one a couple of weeks ago that had all cinder block walls and a concrete floor. Reminded me of a storage locker I rented once.
Personally, if one is single or married without kids, I think lofts have some cool potential. It’s not what I would choose though. What you describe is basically a blank canvas upon which you can do whatever you like. But, bare lofts at present day pricing are truly insane. After paying out the nose, all most could afford to do is buy a lawn chair and maybe a poster for the wall.
You should see some of the lofts around Phoenix. I looked at one a couple of weeks ago that had all cinder block walls and a concrete floor. Reminded me of a storage locker I rented once.
double height cielings, twice as much energy to heat and cool
The Press Enterprise. “There were 7,678 defaults filed against home and condominium owners in Riverside and San Bernardino counties in the fourth quarter… Homeowners in Inland Southern California and the Central Valley were the most at risk because of a concentration of first-time buyers who were forced to settle for mortgages with riskier terms.”
If we want to look for things that will be “different this time,” the number of foreclosures is going to shatter all old records. It was bad last time, and this time, it is going to be much, much worse.
The Inland Empire is soon to become the new Watts / Compton.
IE will be a hot, dry summer with nothing but vultures looking for a bargain. I lived there for 10 years and the overcroding and building during that decade was amazing. Sad, but a lot of people are gonna feel a squeeze. My BiL already is looking for something closer to the house because the commute to eLAY sucks. One old neighbor continues to work a bazillion hours a week to keep up (wife also works). Other neighbor came by the apartment this weekend in the South OC and wife and hubby began saying that renting might not be so bad. They bought even before the bubble, so they aren’t in too bad of shape, but the lack or maintenance and renting closer to his job, as well as having a stash in the bank didn’t seem so bad.
A lot of these people in the IE, if they aren’t toast, will realize, if they make it 30 years, that they wasted a lot of their and family’s precious time at work and in the car. Me, I go home for lunch every day and don’t worry if the pool breaks. Gee, renting 4 miles from work doesn’t sound so bad.
OCDan, sounds like I have the same lifestyle you do, only in Northern CA. I see all the gridlock each night as people drive to homes in the central valley. WTF? We only have one chance here on earth, and I find it disheartening that so many are happy to waste it commuting. People still want single family housing though, and NIMBYs always seem to kill any proposals in towns where the jobs are, so I don’t know what the answer is.
CA, do the math. I have. Here goes. Conservatively speaking, of course. 1 Hour commute, if lucky and conservative. That is 10 hours per week. That is 500 hours per year (2 weeks vacation). That is 20,000 hours after 40 years. Now take 20,000 and divide by 168 (hours in a week) and the result is 119 weeks, or if you like, 2 years and 4 months. WOW! That is not how I want to spend that 21/3 years, in my car. However, these nutsos will continue to go farther and farther to get large mcmansion PoS out in the boonies.
They can, of course, do things like listen to podcasts in the car. It’s not _completely_ wasted time.
The answer is telecommunications. If you can’t move the people to the jobs, move the jobs to the people.
Small offices in bedroom communities are more and more feasible, and sensible. Working from home doesn’t always motivate or allow the necessary focus. Working from an office with 5 colleagues who also live in the same area makes sense.
A 1,500 square foot suite in a secondary office location (lower rents), with VPN to the mother ship an hour away by car is cheaper than expanding the mother ship’s office space by 1,500 square feet (where there are higher rents).
The flat world doesn’t mean that all jobs go to India. Some can move from SF to Fairfield.
The answer is telecommunications. If you can’t move the people to the jobs, move the jobs to India.
You’re 4 whole miles from work? Talk about a grueling commute.
I’m renting in Newport Beach, 2 miles away from my South Coast Metro office, for less than $1,500.
And with all the Santa Anas we’re having, the planes take off the other way, so even the usual mild John Wayne Airport noise isn’t there.
You bring up an interesting point. Has Compton EVER been a nice neighborhood? Can you name some years. It would be interesting to see what socio-economic factors were happening during that decade(s) that created such a town. I wonder if there was a bubble there, crack cocaine, white flight, immigrants moving in, what exactly triggered it??
The Rise and Fall of Compton.
Calling IE the next Compton really isn’t far from the possible outcomes after reading wikipedias history on Compton:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compton%2C_California
After the bubble bursts and the tax base disappears it could very well happen.
Believe it or not, President Bush once lived in Compton!
It’s true — George and Barbara Bush lived in Compton when George W. Bush was five or six years old. Compton used to be a working-class white neighborhood back in the 1940’s and early-to-mid 1950’s. The Bush family lived there for a couple years while Bush Sr. worked for an oil company in SoCal.
Well, then, now’s your chance to own a little piece of history. Well, a piece of something anyway…
http://losangeles.craigslist.org/lac/rfs/267894197.html
I met an old white guy in Arkansas a while back. I mentioned that I am from California and he told me that he grew up in Compton. My response was that surely Compton was a very different place back then. He said, oh, it’s always been pretty rough, but we had fists and knives for weapons back in the old days, not guns.
SoBay posts “The Inland Empire is soon to become the new Watts / Compton.”
It is the current PlamCaster. Hey the weather is much better in Watts it really is not far from the beach. In the summer I bet it is 30 Degrees cooler and with the ocean breeze, no mountians the air is cleaner…. Although sometimes the lead content can get crazy.
You mean as in “flying lead” …the 9-mm and 38-cal varieties.
IE = Compton - with a much worse commute!!!!
“‘Three times a week, they call and say, ‘Where’s my money?’ he said. ‘If I hadn’t survived, everything would have been fine.’”
That has to be one of the saddest statements to come out of this bubble — the guy comes right out and says he believes he would be better off dead than in hock.
“the guy comes right out and says he believes he would be better off dead than in hock”
- Thousands of folks are presently and soon to be feeling this same pain. For most, there will be no recovery.
That is pretty sad. It is one thing when foolish FB’s use HELOC to purchase consumer goods, but it is another when health issues demand it. By surviving he created a situation where the stress of living is probably going to kill him anyway. He seems to have only prolonged his misery. Very sad.
I think it’s sad, too.
“better off dead”
Two dollars…two dollars! I want my two dollars!
Sounds like George Bailey in It’s A Wonderful Life when he says he would be better off dead! Who said life doesn’t imitate art?
Where’s old man Potter when you need him?
He keeps calling him 3 times a week, asking him where is my money.
He turned corporate - Ameriquest, DiTech, etc.
CLARENCE!!!!!!! There are lot of folks out here that need an angel … so there better be a lot of bells ringing!
Potter has been the middleman for the loan companies.
George was only suffering money problems. Add a heart condition on to it and I guess life truly is hell.
George was deaf in one ear. That must’ve been the ear closest to the mortgage broker when he ran through the “Now here’s how an ARM works” spiel.
Isn’t that ironic, an insurance agent bilking the home ATM, forgetting to read the fine print.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.
I don’t think it’s sad at all. He obviously couldn’t afford the place before he took out the extra $100,000. An $800,000 mortgage at 6% is about $6000 a month. So in reality, he will end up getting $100,000 worth of medical bills for free, if he forecloses.
I’m not sure what $100K in medical bills is really worth. Inflated bills and an inflated house. I maintain insurance for my family at $800 a month and every year it goes up $50 to $100. And yes, what kind of moron making under $275K would even begin to think about a million dollar house? That is still the territory of a very select group of earners.
“what kind of moron making under $275K would even begin to think about a million dollar house? ”
I think it is safe to say, based upon your correct observation, that more than half of bay area buyers are indeed, morons.
SD median income = $65K
Median wishing price (on ziprealty.com) = $525K (approximately)
At 8 X median income, the SD home prices still have a 25%+ correction ahead to realign with incomes (unless this time is different than last).
We have had about a 10% correction so far from the peak in late 2005, which has done little for most in terms of affordability for most. I am not sure what the current thinking is in terms of income to home price ratio, but I have always thought in terms of 3 (4 is pushing it).
Say we relent and agree on 4 prices will need to drop 50% to be affordable. Coincidently, prices will also need to drop 50% to get in line with rents in the area, and lastly prices will need to drop 50% to undo much of the 130% rise in prices since 2000 or there abouts and put prices back on the 30 year chart.
no doubt about it 50% will be like pulling teeth, but with the flood of foreclosures heading down the pike, I see a lot of tooth fairies heading our way and much more reasonable prices - not as quickly as we would like, but I suspect by the end of the year the trend will be more obvious and by the end of 2008 watch out below…
No kidding. Mail in the keys, take a temporary hit to your credit rating, hug your grandkids.
It’s all good.
“he will end up getting $100,000 worth of medical bills for free, if he forecloses.”
Gee, Austin. And people complain there are no “positive thinkers” on this blog…
Well, the real point is that he would have foreclosed no matter what. You can’t tell me someone could “afford” an $800,000 house, but can’t tighten the purse strings and afford that plus his medical bills.
Yea, the story is not all being told, it usually never is, right?
PS, Most insurance brokers are usually loaded for bear with policies. Did he have health insurance? Man if this is 100,000 in deductibles!
Did I miss something, because he will still have to pay back the dough or BK, since he refi’d and that loan has recourse.
“…he will end up getting $100,000 worth of medical bills for free, if he forecloses.”
Kind of besides the point if he is facing death and foreclosure at the same time, and deciding he would have been better off having died a while back…
This the new America - Death and Taxes AND Foreclosure
No critics allowed. America is perfect. It’s what God intended as paradise on earth. No critics allowed.
How do you get $6,000 a month? Even with a 30-year amortizing mortgage, $800,000 at 6% only comes out to $4,800 a month.
Maybe you’re counting taxes and insurance?
We’re #1: Sacramento Tops PMI’s U.S. Market Risk Index
Go Anaheim! We made the playoffs at least at #4.
Ouch! Sorry for the typo: In “How does an aquaintance of mine doing with his Santa Ana “loft’?” I meant “How IS an aquaintance of mine doing with his Santa Ana “loft’? Anyway, does anyone have any info on these overprioced shitboxes?
Thanks!
This is HUGE. Talk about confirmation about the existence of an RE bubble. Judging by the chart, we will see NoD numbers easily eclipsing the previous record this year. Foreclosure records may not happen until early next year.
Impossible for the REIC to spin this in a positive light. HUGE price declines on the way this year with comps resetting values lower daily on REO sales as they stack up in lenders’ books. Borrowers are throwing in the towel as predicted here without even a tiny fight as the walls close in. Unravelling at light speed….
flippers who bought in 05 and couldn’t sell last year are financially ruined. I doubt there are many exceptions.
This flop I found couldnt sell in a year of trying and eventually(this month) sold for 400k less than the flopper paid in 05.
its here on the blog:
http://realestatehaircuts.blogspot.com/
I love the pic of the house going down the hill. That’s a riot.
Great find. This stuff, specifically foreclosure numbers, are confirmation and we will officially begin the panic stage in the Spring. As bears and fence sitters see these numbers they will wait like vultures for the carcasses to pile up…
Was just talking to a guy who is a regular patron working at Target while finishing his graduate degree. Told me they are building another 3,000 homes, or as he put it, an entire small city, in his area of South OC. That was all the info I had, but if true, more insanity and more inventory.
Most people have no idea that prices are heading down. I was talking to a guy here at work who wants to buy because ‘re always goes up long term’.
I sent him the link to my blog to wake him up from his dangerous slumber. Once you gather enough samples of ancecdotal evidence - you have proven the case. I think its good pratice to tell everyone to ‘wait a year before buying’. In a year they will want to wait one more….
Ah yes, the elusive “long term.” An investment that takes 15 years to break even is NOT good, even in the “long term.” Certainly in the worst bubbly areas, 15 years to breakeven doesn’t look impossible.
I don’t know quite what to make of what is going on in Woodland Hills. I almost fell off my chair when checking a foreclosure site last night, I discovered that there are FIVE houses on my street in various stages of foreclosure.. this is more than ugly - this is getting scary.
Yay! I would like to BUY in Woodland Hills next year!
Down, down, down!
What street?
Even more telling in the DQ piece is that 33% of NODs are now going to foreclosure. If that rate keeps up it will truly be an epic crash.
My tracking indicates that the truly meteoric rise in NODs came in November and December so if it holds up (and it looks like it will) we could have as many as 2 million of those 8.7 million California homes foreclosed on. Try to wrap your mind around that one. 1 in 4 of the people around you could end up losing their home to foreclosure.
This is shaping up to make the 90s look like a cakewalk.
dude? that would be even a higher % in the IE and other funky who wants to live here places= scary
“Even more telling in the DQ piece is that 33% of NODs are now going to foreclosure”
That number is only going to go up the longer this goes and as prices decline further - walls close in even more.
The LA Times story has a couple of interesting numbers.
NODs (4Q06): 37,273
NODs (4Q05): 15,196
% Change: 145%
Foreclosures (4Q06): 6,078
Foreclosures (4Q05): 874
% Change: 595% (this number was NOT in the article)
Other numbers not in the article:
Foreclosures/NODs (4Q06): 16.3%
Foreclosures/NODs (4Q05): 5.75%
The number of NODs is increasing, but the number of foreclosures and percentage of NODs ending in foreclosure are skyrocketing. And the 2007 resets have not yet begun. Just goes to show you that the change in median price is not accurately reflecting the actual change in prices. And, how hard is it going to be for FBs to refi if they have an NOD? Wouldn’t that kill someone’s credit score?
Are those numbers national or just CA?
Those are CA numbers, although there may be a flaw in the logic of applying Foreclosure numbers against NoD in a ratio since they are not related to each other directly in this case. The real number is 33% since the foreclosures need to be tied to much earlier NoD records.
WHat is ALARMING is that using that same ratio (we could easily argue it will be much higher since these numbers are going up quickly too) there will be a TORRENT of foreclosures coming to a courthouse near you.
This is shaping up to make the 90s look like a cakewalk.
Easily 10X worse than the ‘90/’91 bust…
$500B for ‘90/’91 bailout X 10 = $ 5 trillion…
Seems about right.
Was the $500B the losses covered by the RTC?
The RTC was set up to liquidate failed S&L’s and meet legal guarantees to FSLIC-insured depositors. That required taxpayer money as the S&L assets were inadequate to meet liabilities.
The situation today is that almost all mortgages have been offloaded to MBS or Fannie/Freddie debt. A very large amount of this is held by foreigners or hedge funds. And, it carries no guarantees. Holders of this junk are going to eat their losses. Anyone who expects an ex post facto government guarantee is dreaming.
we could have as many as 2 million of those 8.7 million California homes foreclosed on. Try to wrap your mind around that one
Dude, there’s no wrapping your mind around that one. If it’s true, it’s really scary.
“Borrowers are throwing in the towel as predicted here without even a tiny fight”
When you have no skin in the game (100% or more financed, no money down, no closing costs), it’s easy to just walk away. To the banks and MBS investors: Duh.
Add HELOCs and CASH-OUT borrowing and it’s possible that almost any one of your neighbors could get foreclosed on - not just the new purchases.
I can only imagine what the NAR, DL & specifically LAY will say now… “IT’S AN EPIC BUYERS’ MARKET”.
Get ready for a return of the house stripping parties where all the fixtures are ripped off the walls & copper pipe and wires are ripped out.
“Get ready for a return of the house stripping parties where all the fixtures are ripped off the walls & copper pipe and wires are ripped out.”
That is yet another reason prices will fall by much more than the REIC either foresees or acknowledges.
If that 33% is true, and I have no reason to doubt, and so many have HELOCed/REFIed, and 1 in 4 could go belly up, this mess is going to be HUGE! I would also like to add that someone made the comment about no skin in the game. I agree, but another factor is renting. Once woners realize that the home the are paying $5K/month for plus carrying and swequity, well, my $2K 3/2 apt. w/pool, jacuzzi and workout room isn’t going to look so bad. Again, I agree w/no skin in the game, but hughe upside down issues will quell many of the sheeple. Even if they can afford, how many will have the endurance and perserverance to hang in until the mortgage is paid off or they have strong appreciation? We all know everyon’e attention span is .0003 seconds, you think anyone can make it till the next boom in about 20 years? Doubtful for most!
“how many will have the endurance and perserverance to hang in until the mortgage is paid off ”
Not in this universe. Most loans are INT-ONLY so there’s no paying off the mortgage anywhere in the equasion. The entire market is predicated upon appreciation continuing forever. As soon as appreciation stops the whole house of cards collapses. That’s what we have been saying all along… and it’s happening NOW.
“Get ready for a return of the house stripping parties where all the fixtures are ripped off the walls & copper pipe and wires are ripped out.”
Can you imagine what all those S0entral LA reo properties will look like after the Mexican/CA immigrants strip out those foreclosed homes. These folks can strip a salvage junk auto faster than a school of piranhas can strip a carcass.
yes, amazing,isn’t it? we’ve been waiting so long.
I’ve already seen a few places like that in OC. In one, the entire kitchen was gone (no sink, cabinets ripped off the wall, etc) and they had taken all the paint they could find on the property and had painted every surface in the living room, including windows. And not with just one color. Oh and I can’t forget all the non-permitted “closets” (listing’s word, not mine) where we’re pretty sure many families were living. I’ve never seen anything quite like it, and it was a “deal” reduced to $499,999. My realtor said that the selling realtor should be ashamed of herself for putting the words “Happiest Place on Earth” on the flyer (it was within walking distance of Disneyland).
How about if you went no doc because you are an illegal immigrant, who can easily return home on short notice? Duh…
GS, I have met more than a few illegals that used that business model from the get go 3 years ago. They Heloc’d ,bought their lake home in Mexico ,and just waiting til the party ends ,and will load up the SUV ,and head south…” you gringos clean up the mess”
It is much more effective for illegals who saw the light early, and used their home equity gains in the US to buy a nice pad in Tijuana “just in case”…
This will be interesting. How many have used easy credit to buy outside the states? Yeah, can’t wait to see that fat, short, graying DiTech guy cross the border and ask for his money back. Good luck. Multiply that by hundreds of thousands, legal, illegal, American, Mexican, whatver, won’t matter. Boy, the more I think about this bubble and what has gone on, the worse it gets.
“can’t wait to see that fat, short, graying DiTech guy cross the border and ask for his money back.”
That is truly a priceless image! Too funny.
“Payments?… We don’t need no stinking Payments!”
Add to that boomers retiring outside the US. I know of 2 professors in my dept (30 total) that are getting cash out of their house to buy down south now. Another is moving to China. I was worried when half of my faculty are retiring in the next 7 to 10 and none were planning to stay in CA. Now I’m watching them begin to flee the US.
Add to that all the real legals who want to retire in their country of original, taking all their retirement money and whatever SS they have. Truly we a re screwed as a nation in the next 20 years and I don’t see many in the gov’t who give a damned.
This will be interesting. How many have used easy credit to buy outside the states?
OCDan, I don’t have any figures, but I do know of at least two people who have done that. They had owned their homes for decades, though, but they did remortgage their place here to buy land abroad paying cash. I can’t prove, but I suspect this is more prevalent than anyone imagines.
“…They Heloc’d ,bought their lake home in Mexico ,and just waiting til the party ends ,and will load up the SUV ,and head south…”
That’s ok. No worries. The bank surely conducted a realistic and honest appraisal on the property prior to loaning the money so they can just sell the place and get their money back. NOT. These banks are going to get hammered by this crap, due to, in large part, the hack appraisers.
iF retirees leave the US and take their retirement savings, it is not a total drain on the US’s finances. On the positive side, they are taking their medical problems to another country and releaving the US somewhat of its medicare liabilities towards them.
Nah, they’ll just fly back to houston or San Diego for their operations.
Not just illegals, the legal ones are doing the same thing too.
Remember, one reporter in San Diego got beaten up cause he
dared to question the deals.
Mexican real estate is also overpriced (especially in Baja). This bubble appears global, or near to it…
It is. The most incredible bubble is Kiev, Ukraine.
Spot on. A country with an unstable government, weak economy, no natural resources, and a declining population. A crap Soviet-era apartment will sell for the same price as a decent house in Ottawa, Canada.
Great Point! No skin in the game you do not care. When you have skin in the game, you care.
It also matters whether the “skin” is house money or sweat equity. People value their labor income more highly than their gambling winnings, because labor is difficult and gambling is fun.
“It also matters whether the “skin” is house money or sweat equity”
That’s true, but only to a point. In the end it hardly matters. An FB finally gets around to realizing this as it sinks in that there isn’t any point in throwing good money after bad when they struggle to stay upside down…
“Diane Starr, owner of Starr Property Management in Stockton, said the rental housing market is tough now, with more houses for rent than there are potential renters.”
Have I not kept saying that?? They built so much that you don’t have enough renters nor buyers to take up all that was built. The prices will come down further than before, due to simple competition.
The sad part is that there are still more houses been built. (I work in the construction industry). But some of the projects that are being built now were started years ago, and stopping that work may incur heavy losses for the people involved. Very tough decision to make.
Absolutely, this is not a surprise to those here. How in the hell can rents rise when there are literally tens of thousands of vacant units out there draining their owners savings. It is not hard, no matter where you are, to find a house or condo to rent for the same or less than an apartment. The whole rising rent argument was/is just retarded.
Couldn’t agree more. I have been tracking this for a year now. Some great rentals in RSM and AV and MV in South OC. 3 bed homes for 2K. Some even less. The keep going lower, and lower…..and lower. Told my wife to hand on for another year, then we will seriously look at renting a home. Have to do due diligence, though. Not gonna rent from some flopper/upside down/specuvestor/FB who doesn’t care about the place or jobs me every time I turn around. Just have to be patient, I tell the wife. I love the smell of desperation in the morning.
What ever happened to those articles we were seeing about a year ago regarding the “housing shortage”?? Haven’t seen one of those in a while…
“How in the hell can rents rise when there are literally tens of thousands of vacant units out there draining their owners savings.”
Haven’t you heard? It’s a new paradigm. Housing prices AND rents go up. Just ask any realtor or flipper.
“Diane Starr, owner of Starr Property Management in Stockton, said the rental housing market is tough now, with more houses for rent than there are potential renters. Demand starts plummeting for houses at the $1,300-per-month mark, she said.”
“During the housing boom, many renters became homeowners, she said, while nowadays, competition has jumped among rental-home owners for too few renters. ‘We traded one problem for another,’ Starr said.”
As I see it, there are now two problems: dropping home prices and soon, dropping rental prices. And with dropping rental prices, even more defaults.
Yikes, this is getting really scary.
Demand starts plummeting for houses at the $1,300-per-month mark, she said,
I think that is a terrific stat to remember. Now take that number and treat it like a mortgage payment (with an old-fashioned 20% down 30-year loan) and that tells you where the demand is for SFRs as well.
It ain’t gonna be pretty.
I was curious about that statement, too.
If they’re saying that demand stops due to the fact that $1300 would be a mortgage payment on a similar house, that would make sense.
If they’re saying $1300 is the most someone can pay period…well….all I can say is….pain, lots and lots o’ pain.
I think it’s the latter. (ie, ‘pain, lots and lots o’ pain’)
1300 = 0.33 monthly take-home salary –> $60K annual salary.
Pretty close to the median, no?
Not scary at all. It’s a do-over where prices reset to buyers’ ability to pay. Of course, it’ll overshoot to the downside first.
yeah, but it appears all those renters who became homeowners with fog the mirror loans are about to become renters again, no ?
Most likely. But who’s going to live in the homes they vacate?
posted ” Demand starts plummeting for houses at the $1,300-per-month mark, she said.”
Well 3x’s 1,300 about 4,000 per month x’s 12 months = 48,000 per year. In the real world that is about people make.
Yep, as take home pay. Add taxes back in, and you get to my 60K number above. Come to think of it, that number sounds high for the median.
JP posts ” Yep, as take home pay. Add taxes back in, and you get to my 60K number above. Come to think of it, that number sounds high for the median.”
JP I think this is the crux for the whole problem. In the Greater LA/So. Cal area people have bought homes from 400k- 900k that earn about that much money. Even with 2 earners in the household. It simpley will nerve work in a million years. This going to be very sad.
Exactly, AE Newman. Everywhere I look in CA - be it Central Valley or near the coast, home prices are easily 10x income, which is way over historical norms of 3x - 4x.
Yikes, this is getting really scary.
Yup, it’s almost getting to the point of be careful what you wish for. If it ends up being the way it’s shaping up to be, all bets are off…
‘If I hadn’t survived, everything would have been fine.’
So we have a guy who wishes that he were dead rather than in a toxic mortgage? What a loser.
I don’t know what’s wrong with me. I can’t make myself commit to a place I could write a check for and these people in these stories do things that are beyond belief. How do they sleep at night.
“Good has a special love for asses, apes and americans”, Otto Von Bismark 1898.
That doesn’t sound authentical. First, it is not an alliteration in German b/c of the asses, and Bismarck was on his deathbed in 1898.
Yea, and who is this “Good” fellow anyway?
Robert Jeremiah Good was a Philadelphia dentist who ‘had a thing’ for asses, apes and Americans.
Not that there’s anything wrong with that.
It’d be somewhat alliterative auf Deutsch, as well:
Asses: Esel (donkeys), Arsche (butts)
Apes: Affen
Americans: Amerikaner
“and these people in these stories do things that are beyond belief”
They sleep well at night because they think it’s the norm…’everyone does it’, ‘it’s how people can afford a house’, ‘leaving equity in your house means it’s not working for you’.
Later, when they find out that prices don’t always go up, they are visited by night terrors every night.
“So we have a guy who wishes that he were dead rather than in a toxic mortgage? What a loser.”
If everyone felt this way, Walmart would be out of bullets by now….
Hey. Show a little of compassion. Your health care system is soo f-ucked up, that medical costs are the number one cause for bankrupties in the US. It’s not the case in Europe, in Canada, in Japan. And you what? We live longer than Americans.
And you know what ? We live longer than Americans. Your health care system is supposed to be soo perfect. Sorry It ain’t. This story is not just about the real estate bubble, it’s also about your monstruous health care system that is out of control.
Good for you!!
As far as I can gather, “This story” appears to be about how much you hate America, and Americans….
Whatever dude…..
Ah you are soo perfect. I forgot. Sorry. Mister God lives in a White House and everybody wants to live in Malibu. No critics allowed.
Galahad: Is there someone else up there we could talk to?
A Quite Extraordinarily Rude Frenchman: No, now go away or I shall taunt you a second time-a!
Arthur: Well, uh, can we come up and have a look?
A Quite Extraordinarily Rude Frenchman: Of course not! You are English types-a!
Arthur: Well, what are you, then?!
A Quite Extraordinarily Rude Frenchman: I’m French! Why do you think I have this outrageous accent, you silly king?!
Galahad: What are you doing on a USA Housing Blog?
A Quite Extraordinarily Rude Frenchman: Mind your own business!
Thanks for the compliment. And you Imploder,what are you doing in Irak ? Ah yes liberating it from the “bad guys”, the same bay guys you financed in Irak and in Afghanistan. Wonder really who is the rude guy here ?
You should change your handle to Don Quoté cause you are chasing Windmills.
I’m neither a supporter of Bush, or the war and I never have been. Yes, America’s healthcare is defective and needs changing.
You seem to have need of finding an “American Devil-dog” to argue with, sorry, that’s not me, and the Housing Blog is a weird place to look for it. I’m merely responding to you absurd accusatory tone and broad generalizations of all Americans.
But, by all means, carry on.
Nope. I don’t think that. Who doesn’t generalize ? We all do. We all do at one moment or another.
posted ” Your health care system is soo f-ucked up, that medical costs are the number one cause for bankrupties in the US.”
That is why you guy’s come down here to see a Vet a damm doggie doctor to get fixed up….Why because you will die of old age before you get treated up north.
Marc, Where are you from? Iraq?
posted ” Ah you are soo perfect. I forgot. Sorry. Mister God lives in a White House and everybody wants to live in Malibu. No critics allowed.”
What a load of bull. To inform you a moron lives in the White House…I guess that debunks the latter part of your theory.
Imploder,
My thoughts exactly. I thought I smelled him “fluffing” in our general direction.
I will add that Malibu is fukin awsome.
The Canadians I meet around CA seem to love the place and bash Canada as a welfare state where the hard workers pay high taxes to support a bunch of layabout welfare recipients. Thats what they say.
“Ah you are soo perfect.”
Come on Marc, you are one of the few Canadians who post here,if not the only one. Try to focus, there must be something interesting you could write about real estate there, the kind of financing available, how prices are doing, are there the same kind of FBs in your corner of the world, whatever. Canadians traditionally have been buyers in Florida, anything on how the crash there is affecting them?
There is a lot of stuff that you could cover or comment on–why not give it a shot?
“Ah you are soo perfect. I forgot. Sorry. Mister God lives in a White House and everybody wants to live in Malibu. No critics allowed”
Marc, do you know who Steve Nash is. Two-time NBA MPV, a Canadian transplant who is making a fortune playing basketball in your ‘evil’ USA. How about Celine Dion? another Canadian who made a mint in the ‘evil’ USA.
Lots of canadians have become highly successful migrating and making fortunes in the USA. You see, The USA is the one country where there is freedom and opportunity to migrate here as a dirt-poor immigrant and swiftly move up the economic ladder of success. Canada and the other fossilized socialist states lack the dynamic entreprenual capitalist systems to allow a Steve nash or a C Dion to make millions. It might be a system rigged in favor of the talented and ambitious, but rather that than a dead statist system which levels and eualizes rich and poor,a marxist view which penalizes initiative and talent and stymies capitalistic innovations and inventions. AS far as i know, nothing of any value comes out of Canada except for your Tar OIL Sands; certainly not innovative medical technologies. All talented Canadians migrate to the USA, the land of freedom anf opportunity.
That is why you guy’s come down here to see a Vet a damm doggie doctor to get fixed up….Why because you will die of old age before you get treated up north.
HaHaHaHa.
Maybe the reason Americans have one of the lowest life expectancies of any Western country is because they drink too much Kool-Aid!
txchick, I know what you are talking about. It’s just a different mentality. When I asked people how they expected to pay off their mortgage, the answer was always “but you never pay it off”. I guess it worked for a while, but now things are going sour for those optimists.
Like the US government, “but you never pay it off.” When wil the debt hit 9 trillion ? In 6 months ? It works quite nicely for the US government ? Why not for them ?
Posted ” Like the US government, “but you never pay it off.” When wil the debt hit 9 trillion ? In 6 months ? It works quite nicely for the US government ? ”
GWBush still has 2 years to go. He very well might make the Canucks pay the bill …. kinda a surtax for breathing our air. I think this would have bi-partisan support.
Or even better yet a “pimple” tax…. a charge for being a pimple on the butt of a superpower.
The only answer I can come up with is that these folks are completely clueless. They are blissfully free of the ravages of intellect and they believed the lies they were told. OR they understood everything and are simply greedy and stupid. In either case evolution will not be kind to their ilk.
“The Orange County Register. “Lennar Corp. is asking its homebuilding subcontractors to cut their current charges by 5 percent or more or face a minimum six-month ban on bidding for work, a company executive said.”
Great! This will increase foreclosure’s in Riverside / San Bernadino as the Drywallers / Framers / Plumbers and Roofers have to take more pay cuts.
The next FB / Foreclosure:- my brother-in-law works in the Inland Empire off and on (more off than on) framing, drywalling, setting windows, whatever he can get that day. He has been on again off again with his wife. He even paid for a divorce, only to get back together with her a week before it was finalized. He called last night to ask me to pull up their credit on the web - his wife wants to buy a house! She thinks that it will “fix things between them”. I bit my tongue as I took his info, nothing could be returned for either of them. I gave him the phone number to call. Here’s the kicker, the reason they want to buy a house is because her friend is a Realtor and told them they can get in a house “no problem”. I know the only thing (period) on my BIL’s credit is a bankruptcy. I am so tempted to try to tell them that now is a terrible time to buy, but with every other kind of advice you try to give them, they never listen. So…I’m just going to sit back and watch. As Neil likes to say, Got Popcorn? I get my own personal show.
RenoGirl,
Good lord, if these people mean anything to you, grab a bullhorn and scream into it that now is NOT the time for them to buy.
You know what’s going to happen. He’s not going to get much work and they won’t be able to pay the mortgage on a liability that they were already overextended on. At the very least this will hasten the divorce that is probably on it’s way again anyway.
And seeing as how he came to you asking about his credit, he may even blame you, in part, for his mess.
I recently forwarded this site to a friend who wants to buy in North SF Bay. He has $100K to put down and I still told him I thought it was a bad idea, based on what he told me he wanted to buy, his income, etc, etc.
Renogirl,
It must be hard to watch. It would be a disaster for them to buy on one hand, but on the other you bear no responsibility for their actions.
And yes, I do realize there will be a million+ personal tragedies hidden in the statistics. But at this point, its too late to stop the implosion. Its just best to get back far enough to be safe. Its sort of like the airliner safety training; first you put on your oxygen mask then you won’t pass out (and thus you can help others). So don’t hurt yourself trying to save others (another BK really won’t matter to them, will it?).
But do try to save those you love. This is going to get ugly.
Alas, this is one post where my normal signoff might not be appropriate.
Neil
I promised my husband that I wouldn’t interfere. The last time we tried to give him advice (not to marry), he didn’t speak to us for months. Don’t get me wrong if I seem flippant, it really is hard to sit back and watch and keep my mouth shut, and I hate to see them make the worst decision of their lives, but at this point they have pretty much made up their minds and nothing that I could say or do would change their decision. It’s people like them that are the prime targets of predatory lending, etc. simply because of their own ignorance and a lack of due diligence. I truly hope that they don’t qualify for their own goods.
It is unfortunate but some of us are in the same boat. I tried to keep my sister from buying in MA late ‘05. She got in the game around 2003 & took all of the rhetoric to heart. Now that her house is dropping all she can say is “you know that this upsets me and we just have to agree to disagree.” As much as I love her she won’t listen to reason.
Reno Girl I feel your pain.
My little sister has doubled the original mortgage on her existing place, and is now looking to majorly trade up. She wouldn’t listen to me before, certainly won’t now. An absolutely epic disaster in the making, and I can’t do anything about it.
She thinks that it will “fix things between them”.
She’s right. It WILL “fix” things… Permanently.
Reno Girl posts “He even paid for a divorce, only to get back together with her a week before it was finalized.”
Is your brothers name Casey?
“He even paid for a divorce, only to get back together with her a week before it was finalized.”
Some guys will go to great lengths for “make-up sex”
Once lennar has squeezed all personality from the product I expect Wal Mart will step in and sell real estate with the 1 in 70 Californians willing to work for minimum wage and no benefits.
And the bad loans just continue…Check out the Craigslist Ad in the Reno Nevada Housing For sale section
http://reno.craigslist.org/rfs/267807211.html
A 580 score for 100% financing..in a declining market. Tempted to call and see whos still out there thinking this is a good idea!
More and more of these are showing up as the sellers start getting desperate. I keep watching the rentals as my current lease on my apartment is up at the end of May. I have noticed that the area I want to rent in (East Sparks), is slowing dropping in price as more and more comes onto the rental market. I am hoping that I can be picky come time to move and get exactly what I want.
RG- Had a thought.
Maybe you CAN help your BIL indirectly. If you find out who they are going with for their clearly subprime loan and that company is on the list of mortgage brokers likely to be targeted at Paladin’s website, start looking for fraud loans in their area (if you can) by this company and report them. Who knows, the couple may find that suddenly funding for them seems to dry up as the brokers will scrutinize more carefully to save their own skin. Your BIL and wife will wonder why, and you can just say “Aw, that’s too bad”.
hmmm…
No I see why people are getting themselves into an uncontrollable amount of dead. Their betting on dropping dead.
Interesting…
they’re …
whoops!
Is there a controllable amount of “dead”? Like in The Princess Bride - he’s only mostly dead?
MORTICIAN: Bring out your dead!
Bring out your dead!
[clang] Bring out your dead!
[clang] Bring out your dead!
[clang] Bring out your dead!
[clang] Bring out your dead!
CUSTOMER: Here’s one — nine pence.
DEAD PERSON: I’m not dead!
MORTICIAN: What?
CUSTOMER: Nothing — here’s your nine pence.
DEAD PERSON: I’m not dead!
MORTICIAN: Here — he says he’s not dead!
CUSTOMER: Yes, he is.
DEAD PERSON: I’m not!
MORTICIAN: He isn’t.
CUSTOMER: Well, he will be soon, he’s very ill.
DEAD PERSON: I’m getting better!
CUSTOMER: No, you’re not — you’ll be stone dead in a moment.
MORTICIAN: Oh, I can’t take him like that — it’s against
regulations.
DEAD PERSON: I don’t want to go in the cart!
CUSTOMER: Oh, don’t be such a baby.
MORTICIAN: I can’t take him…
DEAD PERSON: I feel fine!
CUSTOMER: Oh, do us a favor…
MORTICIAN: I can’t.
CUSTOMER: Well, can you hang around a couple of minutes? He
won’t be long.
MORTICIAN: Naaah, I got to go on to Robinson’s — they’ve lost
nine today.
CUSTOMER: Well, when is your next round?
MORTICIAN: Thursday.
DEAD PERSON: I think I’ll go for a walk.
CUSTOMER: You’re not fooling anyone y’know. Look, isn’t there
something you can do?
DEAD PERSON: I feel happy… I feel happy.
[whop]
CUSTOMER: Ah, thanks very much.
MORTICIAN: Not at all. See you on Thursday.
CUSTOMER: Right.
“Homeowners in Inland Southern California and the Central Valley were the most at risk because of a concentration of first-time buyers who were forced to settle for mortgages with riskier terms.”
What level of force was administered? Did the lender use a shotgun to coerce the buyer to sign the papers?
“forced to settle”
I doona think that word means wha he thingk it means.
I don’t understand. Why would MBs need to resort to “forcing” buyers to accept the banksters’ wonderful new Happy-Fun Affordability products? Weren’t those a “win-win” for everyone involved (who earned risk-free commissions)?
“So far, this isn’t alarming,” said John Karevoll, chief analyst at DataQuick Information Systems, which compiled the data. But if default notices “keep going up at this rate, it could get nasty fast,” he added.
This is a comment on this graph:
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-012407-fi-foreclose-g,0,4980751.graphic?coll=la-home-headlines
So if a “chief analyst” has an IQ of 68, what IQ does an analyst have?
I noticed that too. Do you think this chump knows how to read a chart? What external event does he foresee that might change the slope of the graph, and why isn’t this in itself ALARMING to an analyst who presumably should be able to read the chart and make some assumptions about the next data point. The numbers are going up at exponential rates.
Even if the increase in numbers slow down at some point, there’s a lot of carry-through in the pipeline. We are at the very beginning of the collapse.
Karevoll is a total numbskull and a liar.
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his NOT understanding it.”
–Upton Sinclair
You gotta read that carefully. He is the chief analyst at DataQuick Information Systems, which means they deal in numbers and probably do not factor in variety of qualitative factors. It’s probably a fairly simple model based on a handful of factors, and he will make a prediction based on standard error of 1. You’ll never get a “default rates will break the record by 50% next year” from a statistician, just as you will never see a prediction of “housing median price will go up by 20% this year”. Problem is that they take too much data and normalize it to a fault, where there is very little, if any, probability of a prediction that will be skewed one way or the other.
Congratulations, that was the most intelligently sounding BS I’ve read in a while.
Did you look at that graph?
That’s right. Just look at the graph and then come back to me about the standard deviation bullsh!t. Everthing is fricken clear.
Looks like a Space Shuttle launch to me. But I don’t know nuttin bout numbers.
And keep my distance from All “Deviates” no matter how “Standard” they are…
What? While I agree there’s no way to extrapolate appreciation, since it depends entirely on mass psychology and mania, defaults are largely a simple matter of arithmetic. They were coming and NOW they are here.
They are running wild. What external force is there to stop the train? Without one, and that could easily be a stipulation in his prediction, the numbers will likely be in the range of X-Y by the end of the year. You can bet your ass he’s telling his paying customers this very thing in private as they shift their money around…
No argument here about mass psychology, I’m just stating the reason why these statisticians always whimp out on their “predictions”. Throw all the factors into a statistical model for a historical period, and you generally end up with the numbers they are predicting. DL’s and LAY’s may be pulling numbers out of their arse, but the statisticians can usually back their numbers up. Only problem is they only back it up with numbers, not more qualitative factors.
There is no way to look at that chart and then look someone in the eye and tell them things are not headed quickly into disaster territory. There’s a probability of X that we will see 50K NoD in a quarter this year. ANd that number X is around 99.99999%.
Man, none of you guys have any idea what I’m talking about, do you? Forget I ever mentioned it. No matter, I agree with you guys anyway that foreclosures will be much higher, just wanted to give a perspective of what a stat guy would use to say what they say.
I think I hear you. Statisticians work in a world of only numbers. They can do a little bit of crystal ball work, but not much. Making predictions on what could or will happen is not their job. They provide the data and it is up to others to extrapolate whatever they want to. Similar to scientists, they can’t let opinions interfere with the data. It is what it is. For all we know, the Data Quick guy could be a huge housing bear. Doubtful, but one never knows. Based on that chart though, it’s hard to believe this will end well, which you have acknowledged.
Take it easy. Statistics was the toughest class I took in University–and it didn’t help that the TA who taught the class was from the Middle East and didn’t speak English.
I had an Engineering Physics professor like that. I was a Freshman. I questioned one of his postulations on the chalkboard, saying that the book had another answer. He said that the book is wrong. I decided not to major in Physics or Engineering.
Next year he will go “yeah, you should probably be pretty alarmed”
Gotta love the mathmatical efficiency.
What’s neat is that the peak during the last bust occurred in 1996, after prices had bottomed.
This time around, foreclosures have shot through the roof and prices have barely even BEGUN dropping yet.
Imagine what that graph is going to look like five years from now!
That’s exactly right. Unless it’s really a lot different this time, the current state of the market should correspond to some spot on the prior bust chart. Then we might be able to get some feeling for the eventual scale of the current bust down the road when the bodies are counted.
According to the chart, it looks like we’re about where we were in 1992 regarding the number of NODs, but closer to 1994-1995 as far as going vertical on the number. Considering the coming wave of resets, and the fact that bulls can’t give any logical reason for RE to plateau or rise again, it looks like the number of defaults will continue to skyrocket higher.
How long until Karevoll publicly admits that things are bad? I’m thinking by the end of April even he won’t be able to deny how bad the market is.
Karevoll is a shill. Is DQ in the business of recording stuff, like a national archive, or are their customers paying them to compile statistics to tell them what the future will hold. No one cares about the historical numbers except that they may tell us about the future.
Yime this chump comes CLEAN.
He was interviewed at OCR’s RE blog about a year ago.
He was pounded pretty well by the bears.
DQ then hired a journalist to be a PR flak.
Apparently he didn’t like the pounding and wanted out.
He is a REIC shill.
Probably meaning they were forced, as in their credit sukked and they couldn’t get conventional financing.
I know, I know, it was not necessary for the high risk buyers to purchase a home…at this point, just roll with it. None of these anecdotes or REIC patter make a whit of sense to anyone with two functioning brain cells.
“Brown’s goal in tapping his equity was to give his wife, Monica, a $100,000 cushion after his death.”
Life insurance, anyone?
Dude, you forgot to think bad thoughts. Geez, can this guy do anything right? Maybe he will sue he’s doctor for being too good at he’s job!
Dude, you forgot to think bad thoughts. Geez, can this guy do anything right? Maybe he will sue he’s doctor for being too good at he’s job!
GS, if he dies it still would have left her in the same spot she is now. SHe would have had to pay and the ARM would have become a leg. Only difference, he is still alive. Don’t these people have any common sense?
How do you get life insurance with a heart condition?
You don’t. D’oh!
What about that stuff Robert Wagoner peddles. You know, the stuff where you give them $10,000 in payments and they give your heirs $4000.
The Press Democrat. “Next month, the century-old Chauvet Hotel in Glen Ellen will reopen as ‘The Chauvet,’ a collection of six luxury condominiums currently priced from $1.15 million to $1.3 million.”
You have got to be kidding me! The area is beautiful, gorgeous actually (Jack London State Park is particularly lovely), but it’s a tiny little town out in the middle of nowhere. And, if I recall correctly from my time in Sonoma County, the building had structural issues and the developer had a heck of a time getting the proper permits. Not to mention, it’s an old brick building, sitting right on top of a major faultline. No, thank you.
Two things I am sick and tired of hearing in the media:
‘They have good jobs but they bought over their heads, buying into the American dream.’”
“…..first-time buyers who were forced to settle for mortgages with riskier terms.”
Goddamnit! Enough with these “American Dream” propaganda sob stories. The American dream is about life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. It is not about anyone’s right or desire for a huge stucco box. No one is forcing anyone to take out these risky loans! If you can’t afford an ammortizing loan, then don’t buy! There is nothing wrong with renting until you can afford it. In buying into “the dream” these people only contribute to the problem of high housing costs. Anyone who thinks they were “forced” into the “American Dream” (whatever that means), is an absolute idiot. From Pennsylvania Avenue right down to small town Main Street, this country has lost its collective good sense and all personal accountability. One of my h.s. teachers used to say “The only thing you have to do in life is die. Everything else is a choice, so choose wisely.” If you chose to buy a $600K house with a $75K familiy income, then you chose poorly and will now suffer the consequences. Why am I so ticked off? Because when so many clowns start making the same foolish choices then it usually winds up screwing everyone. So if my day ever comes where I am in a position to buy out some overleveraged flopper for pennies on the dollar, I will do it gladly with no remorse or sympathy. There, I feel a little better now!
“The only thing you have to do in life is die. Everything else is a choice, so choose wisely.”
That is actually a great way to put things. Of course, with property losses mounting and these sad sob stories becoming increasingly common, expect Congress to pass the “Homeowner’s Relief Act of 2008″ which will make property losses deductible or will otherwise help out the FBs. Heck, they are already heading in that direction with the new law making mortgage insurance deductible.
CA you are sooo right! However, people have this weird idea that renting stinks and home debtorship is the way to go. Until that thought process changes for a myriad of reasons all discussed on this blog for more than a year now, people will still buy waaaaay over their heads.
Ca Guy …right on man . You hit the core of the problem to begin with . Everyboy started going for homes they couldn’t afford . With the help of the lenders and REIC myths ,going beyond affordability created demand that in turn raised the stupid prices even further . Had people in mass just said “no way ‘ the mania could never of got the legs it got .
What a underwriting said to me one time was “just because you charge a higher rates doesn’t mean the borrower isn’t still going to go into foreclosure “. What were these sub-prime lenders thinking ?
Package the loans into MBS and sell to GSE or stupid foreigners.
CA Guy: Amen, brother..!
The crap they could sell at the peak at 546K is going to sell next month for 430K, what are they smoking … the pot they are growing in their empty house ??? And if so, does it come with a house full of those good high quality pot plants. Those have a street value of 4,000 per plant. Say they have a 100 of those, that an easy 400K worth even it its blatantly illegal and potentially (no pun intended) very very risky, but that would make the house worth the 430K they want !!! …
Cool.
Cow_tipping.
Two more years of housing crash and we’ll all be high on cheap pot…who gives a darm when you’re feeling groovy.
“‘Three times a week, they call and say, ‘Where’s my money?’ he said. ‘If I hadn’t survived, everything would have been fine.’”
I think a lot of FBs will be seeing things this way soon. But, rather than killing themselves (or having someone else do the deed), they will simply end up in Puerto Villarta or someplace like that. It will certainly be hard for houses to go up in value when the owners abandon them en mass.
As a sidenote, I can not believe what people were willing to pay in a $hithole like Salinas. Undoubtedly one of the best examples of third-world America. The beautiful people in Monterey love to conveniently ignore the fact it is only 13 miles from their backdoor; Salinas is much more unsightly than most Central Valley towns, and it will drag the rest of the Monterey Peninsula (read: Carmel) down with it. I keep thinking of my fellow employee who, after living in Monterey finally decided to throw in the towel and buy a 1200 square foot shack in Carmel Valley for $750K back in mid 2005 from a flipper realt-whore. Already, he admits, that three other properties are for sale on his street that are comparable and are priced lower than his…and are not selling.
I hope that’s one heck of a unique 1200sqft detached shack with an ocean-view acre lot, because you can get a nice, brand-new 1500sft CV-townhouse for mid 4’s.
It isn’t. It is on a small lot and is 1950s vintage. The flipper realtor did put $50K of improvements into it–so it has the usual granite, cheap laminate, flat panel TV, etc, but little has been done to update the exterior.
“‘People are living on the edge, and they can’t help it with the price of houses,’ said Barbara Swist, a Costa Mesa mortgage broker who is helping Brown sort through his options. ‘They have good jobs but they bought over their heads, buying into the American dream.’”
Repeat after me:
Homedebtorship is the American Nightmare,
homedebtorship is the American Nightmare,
homedebtorship is the American Nightmare.
Got It? Good.
“James Brown: ‘Three times a week, they call and say, ‘Where’s my money?’ he said. ‘If I hadn’t survived, everything would have been fine.’”
Here’s my financial advice to James Brown: Take out a huge life insurance and apply for a job in D.R. Hortons Escondido division. They are looking someone who can remove paint stains in one of their condo projects. Familiarity with lighter fluid and gasoline a must. They prefer a chain smoker or someone who likes to work by candle light.
That is hiliarious !
too funny OB_Tom
Another James Brown about to be buried
“Irvine-based Standard Pacific Corp. will sell four model homes and two nearly finished houses to the high bidders at a live auction, company officials said Tuesday. Analysts say it marks the reappearance in California of a tactic employed by builders during the state’s 1990s housing bust.”
New rock-bottom comps are in the bag.
I’ve asked this several times. Do auction prices make it into the comps and if so, who adds them ? Obviously a RE company wouldn’t do it.
If they don’t get into the MLS like FSBOs are they recorded as comps?
I don’t think deeds have as much detail on the property as MLS
I don’t think it matters if they got into MLS. If it’s recorded, it should show up as a comp.
I’m able to search through a title company account I have and I see lots of private transactions come up. (ie - no MLS as two parties simply agreed and wrote a contract, etc)
Of course, most of those are dismissed as comps as they might be transferred between family members after a death, for example. As more and more auction sales happen though, you can’t really keep ignoring them.
Perhaps Zillow will show it.
Some of the appraisers on this blog have said that they are comps and should be used, but they do not always have access to the info. IIRC. Certainly some of the appraisers here can give you a little better answer.
rents near builder offerings are crashing
so BLS will show no inflation soon
convenient
I have really become obsessed with this whole housing bubble/economic collapse that is unfolding before us. I can not stop looking (reading this web site) and I would love it if there were a resounding thud marking the point when all the house poor realize that they are actually house insolvent.
But, my question is, how can I make money off it. Maybe shorting regional and local public banks that have significant exposure? Keeping my powder dry and buying investment properties in 3 years? Becoming a debt counselor so I can take the last few dollars out of the FB’s pockets? Are there any public firms that handle REOs for banks?
Finally, someone needs to work up a political cartoon (Wiz of Oz) showing the house resting on 3 or 4 sets of legs, with some appropriate dialougue between Dorothy and the good witch. Who would Dorothy be, the good witch? Who should be under the house next to the homeowner?
“Who should be under the house next to the homeowner? ”
DL, LAY & Angelo Mozilo
DL would most likely be walking quickly away from the scene…or maybe standing on the house saying “housing has stabilized..now is a great time to buy”.
I was thinking maybe the mortgage broker and the banker would be under the house with the homeowner, but how would they have gotten there? The mortgage broker could have been attempting to squeeze one more refinancing deal out of him..
If you want a picture of a house floating in the air, look no further than the cover on DL’s book (*). Hard to see if it’s going up or down. But I’m not going to stand under it.
(*) “Are You Missing the Real Estate BOOM?” renamed “Why the Real Estate BOOM Won’t Bust” in Feb. ‘06, soon the be renamed “BOOM”.
soon TO be
“If you want a picture of a house floating in the air, look no further than the cover on DL’s book (*). Hard to see if it’s going up or down. But I’m not going to stand under it.”
I hope he adds a photo of a twister to the next edition’s book cover.
2008 “If I did it”
Whatever happened to DL….haven’t heard a word from him in the media. Did he die?
The NAR waits until all the numbers are out. Then they come up with their own set of numbers and silly campaigns.
New NAR Campaign! “This is a great time to buy… a gun.”
Great idea, I’m on it, thanks!
Busted House on FB’s striped stocking feet, NAR, MB, FNM, Fed skipping away down the Yellow Brick Road. Or replace Fed Tinman with some other REIC group and have Fed in Helicopter dropping $$$ … pencil is twitchin …
“Homeowners in Inland Southern California and the Central Valley were the most at risk because of a concentration of first-time buyers who were forced to settle for mortgages with riskier terms.”
I feel so lucky the mortgage monster missed me and did not “force” me to settle for a mortgages with riskier terms.
Can any one advise me on how to avoid the mortage monster again? I am so worried I might be FORCED into a riskier loan.
OT:
We had two secretaries in our office whose husbands own real estate businesses here in Denver. About a year ago one left with great fanfare to help her husband with his rapidly growing business. The other was telling everyone who would listen that her stay here was merely temporary until her husband’s business got off the ground. Well, a year later, and not only is the one still here, it was announced today that the one that left is returning. So, guess that didn’t work out.
The funny thing about a lot of these realtors and mortgage brokers, is that they think of themselves as entrepeneurs, starting their own business-going to work for themselves. It has got to be the least creative, most generic move you could make. You are not starting a new business-i.e. providing a new service or filling an unmet niche, or offering something more efficiently. You are simply joining into a pyramid scheme. I don’t really understand when people talk about “great realtors”. I don’t care how good you are, you are putting data into the same MLS, buying ads in the same local newspapers, etc. Maybe you are a little more likeable and can throw a less nauseating open house where buyers won’t be creeped out by you. The best thing you could be is a splash of cold water in the face of an unrealistic seller in terms of what their place will sell for. That is about it. About all you can be is “not bad” as in giving horrible advice. These people are flooding back into the job market quickly-I am a software developer, and have seen three resumes come through in the last month where the person quit computers to be a realtor and wants to come back. No thanks.
> have seen three resumes come through in the last month where the person quit computers to be a realtor and wants to come back. No thanks.
Why do you want to deny them a possibility to earn their money honestly?
Ha. I mean talk about a non-transferrable set of skills. I think a lot will try to go into sales-the type of selling they have been doing is so far from the type of skill set you need to actually sell something for a real company.
Same reason you don’t hire convicted burglars and embezzlers.
Hire 13 ex-realtors, and make an example of the first one who steps out of line. The remaining dozen then get to go on the suicide mission behind enemy lines to reinflate Bagdad.
Used-house salesmen (and women). Big deal. Nice work for people who have the gift of gab and don’t want to go to college.
In my dept, we’ve had 3 openings in the last 2 months and I’ve counted 25 applications from people in the RE business. This comes out to 64% of all the applications. 2 of these jobs were entry level. BTW, none of them even got an interview.
Glad to hear that.
LOL
Twin 31 Story Condo Towers Get OK :
http://bakersfieldbubble.blogspot.com
Sweet Jesus, that is un-freaking-believable. Mr. Crisp might want to take a look at John Saca’s tower/hotel project near the capitol in Sacramento, and get a feeling for what his future holds.
” The clock is ticking at The Towers.”
A monthlong delay — the latest estimate for the current construction halt — wouldn’t severely impact developer John Saca’s schedule.
But a prolonged stoppage could pack a major wallop.
Condo buyers who parted with sizable deposits last summer could get their money back if the 53-story frames of both towers aren’t completed by mid-2008, according to sales contracts. It is not clear when work would need to restart in order to meet that deadline.
Six months ago, Saca seemed to have the project sewn up, with a $100 million commitment from the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, the prospect of a $370 million construction loan and an $11 million city subsidy. Sales were chugging along at a surprising clip.
Now, The Towers needs money just when sales have slowed to a trickle.
City leaders, who view the project as paramount, have been talking with CalPERS representatives about additional funding, said Michael Ault, executive director of the Downtown Sacramento Partnership.
The $480 million Saca secured is impressive, but most of it isn’t available yet.
The city’s subsidy for the InterContinental Hotel at The Towers is considered “last-in” funds, meaning it won’t be delivered until the project is near completion, assistant city manager John Dangberg said.
The construction loan from Deutsche Bank is contingent upon Saca selling half of the proposed 804 units, said Eric Rasmusson, a lobbyist who helped get the project entitled. Rasmusson has been acting as The Towers’ spokesman since Saca stopped responding to media requests.
The Towers is tantalizingly close — about 17 units short of the halfway mark, according to a report from Hanley Wood Market Intelligence. Sales total 383 units from May, when sales began, through November. There were 27 cancellations over that same period.
I posted this story, the Saca Condo problems, on the local newspapers blog and some guy ripped me a new one - he said that me and my blog were a total joke.
That guy was probably Mr. Crisp! It is rather shocking how many are still in total denial. The kool-aid was very strong this cycle. Oh well, you can’t fix stupid.
Classic sign of someone on the losing side of a debate: if they can’t logically win the debate, then they make personal attacks in hopes that people will disbelieve your position because they don’t like/trust you because of the attacks on your character.
Wear it as a badge of honor.
Conceptual approval.
Is anyone familiar with CA public works construction?
Please, tell us how long it takes to get from conceptual plans/drawings to construction?
Quite a while. Conceptual is the first phase - very general idea of the project. About how tall, what type of construction, general look and feel. No CAD documents at this point - just your basic artist’s renderings. From conceptual, you go to schematic design (start your CAD drawings in this phase - flush out a few more of the details, start to get a better idea on spatial elements, etc.), then to design development (quite a bit more detailed work here - CAD drawings in much more detail), then to construction documents (complete set of CAD drawings, plans, and specifications that the builder will actually use to construct the documents), and finally to actual construction.
How long it takes depends on many factors, including the complexity of the job (both the project itself, plus any other factors such as soil conditions, regulatory hurdles, etc.) and how hard you push the architect. Typically, in a rather large project like this, you would probably be looking at anywhere from 9 months to 2 years. I know, it’s a big range, but these projects vary a lot.
And, realize that this project is not a certainty. They have approved the conceptual design only. The parties (UC and developer) are still negotiating, plus they’ll need to get the funding approved (whether public, private, or a combination) and get a contractor in who is willing to agree to build the project within the budget. A whole lot of issues can still hang up this project - conceptual approval really doesn’t mean much.
Good summary, I didn’t want to say it myself.
Also any ideas about Crisp&Cole’s bonding capacity for bid and performance bonds?
I bet those premiums have been going up lately.
Bonding capacity will a be huge issue for this project since the $40B in voter approved bonds from Nov 2006.
So Crisp & Cole will be inadvertently competing for a qualified General Contractor with all the other pubic works going on in the state.
Has Crisp & Cole every developed a public works project?
A short answer: Years.
And if public funds are used, then they will have to pay prevailing wages for all the trades, adding enormously to cost.
Materials prices are still high, despite their recent retreats. The Bakersfield concept is just bizarre though. Who knows, the process could take so long that they will catch the next up cycle, many years out. Then again, it sounds like the Saca towers got financial backing BEFORE the market started tanking. If pension funds, wall street, etc, get badly burned from their real estate investments, I can’t imagine Crisp getting financing for towers in Bakersfield. For christ’s sake: Bakersfield! Think about that! No offense intended, Crispy & Cole.
No one is thinking. They all see $$$.
We could build 500,000 single family homes on the land we currently have available in this town.
Part of me hopes they build it and its sits as a display of the stupidity of the masses!
Speaking of construction in LA i was at the site of a huge construction dig/project located just west of lincoln blvd and south of washington blvd in Marina Del Rey. Looks like a 250-unit+ luxury apt/condo complex?tower going up and the contractors/developers are busy as beavers. This project will be completed by end of this year, though the actual walls and frame skeltons just starting to go up.
Have also been to Playa vista construction site-this one is proceeding more slowly and with deliberate speed as a host of environmental issues/city-county public works depts involved. About 1/2 of Playa Vista-the western Portion-has already gone up. If you look at the completed condo midrises off lincoln or jefferson blvds the westernmost bldgs sort of resemble gigantic concrete transformers or computer chips. Or massive fortress walls. The eastern bldgs at least are the standard brown/beige-toned with faux brick/stone fascades.
Location is the main attraction of Playa Vista. I rarely hype any projects or areas and am extemely critical of some major boondoogles such as LA Dwtn or the Platinum Triangle in Anahein, but PV despite the rather cookie cutter block aspect/sameness of it’s mid-rise condo units, has the superior locational access to Westside/El segundo/Lax jobs sectors and is a relatively clean safe area. This will bring in the buyers/gf’s even in face of a RE slowdown-falling market. Even then condo prices overpriced here as in all of the Westside but the folks will pay them in PV.
Holy crap. That is unreal.
Let me just say Viva La Tejas!!! If the Mexicans had won, we would be living in Mexico and the Missoury and Kansas would be holding back the border. Don’t forget Texas was it’s own country for awhile before joining the union and we reserved the right to be our own country again as well as to split of into as many as 5 states.
> we reserved the right to be our own country again
Well, that didn’t work out so well 1865, because the others didn’t like it.
“we reserved the right to be our own country again as well as to split of into as many as 5 states”
THe only ’split’ Texans have is the split in the crack of your dumbasses.
‘They have good jobs but they bought over their heads, buying into the American dream.’
Ah, the American dream of Loan-ownership.
haha, yes everyone deserves the right to own a loan!
the goverment must pass more ez lending laws for the poor so everyone can have loans!
Check out OC Fliptrack’s summary of OCR articles during the last transition from housing boom to housing bust.
http://www.oc-fliptrack.com/2007/01/oc-residents-in-fastasy-gap.html
Pretty similar to Marinite’s LA Times version.
These time capsules are classic. Reminds me of the NY Times article that circulated a while ago. The greatest thing is the sound bites don’t change.
It looks like they tried to burn down another condo complex in San Diego to day:
http://www.10news.com/news/10834900/detail.html
The fire crews saved the condos…
today
“It was the largest number of default notices in any three-month period since 1998.”
Is price retracement to 1998 soon to follow (including inflation adjustment, of course…)?
“The builder’s minimums are well below market highs reached during construction of the subdivision. ”
“‘This (auction) is a fast, efficient way for us to close out and complete the project,’ said Jackie Shipley, the firm’s VP of sales and marketing. ‘We feel like we’ve had a lot of success in that community. … It’s important for us to do this and move on.’”
So the builders “adios” to all the buyer’s they just sold to, will be some nice freshly lowered comps.
Sweet.
The minimums on those homes are still too high for the area. I’ll be there but just to watch.
“During the housing boom, many renters became homeowners, she said, while nowadays, competition has jumped among rental-home owners for too few renters. ‘We traded one problem for another,’ Starr said.”
OK, I’ll bite. What was the old problem?
The old problem was she wanted to be a homeowner. The new problem is she wants to be a renter again.
Recent reading from BusinessWeek indicate increase in Rental Inventory due to conversion from dead inventory of homes being pulled off the market. This is offsetting any gains and lowering the price. Over all 3% increase from what I read is not much!
I expect this to go down further as inventory swells… AGAIN!
The Orange County Register. “Lennar Corp. is asking its homebuilding subcontractors to cut their current charges by 5 percent or more or face a minimum six-month ban on bidding for work, a company executive said.”
Is this even legal? What a bunch of slimeballs.
Of course it’s legal. Lennar isn’t required to take bids from anyone. If it happens to pick its favorite subcontractors based on their willingness to play ball on their current charges, well, that’s life in the big city.
Considering subcontractors have jacked their prices up to the moon lately, I’m not going to shed any tears for them.
Legal and commonplace.
“Minimum bids will range from $430,000 to $530,000 for the four- and five-bedroom houses”
Anyone want to throw out pricing predictions for the auction? It’s pretty soon.
Another Subprime BlowUp:
http://bakersfieldbubble.blogspot.com
Apparently some appraisers are getting fed up with various things.
“NO, I am not okay. I’m tired of doing everything the “right” way. I’ve had two orders this month only. I can’t tell you how many times lenders have called wanting to know what the property is worth prior to me appraising it. What is even worst, is that lenders are now telling the public to ask for the same thing. I’m tired of trying to educate stupid LO’s. Sorry but that is how I feel. They ask the same questions over and over again. Then when an appraiser answers the question we get bombarded with people wanting to know why appraisers are on the BROKERS OUTPOST. If they don’t want an appraiser to answer a question, why ask? You don’t want to know the right answer, you want the answer that will make you feel good screwing the appraiser up one side and down the other. I don’t like the USPAP rules/laws any more than the LO’s do. But I have to follow them. Maybe other appraisers don’t and that really pisses me off too. Again, I do things the right way and starve while others cheat and make millions. I’m just fed up! I’m tired of being so educated and knowing right from wrong. I wish I could be an ass like all the other appraisers out there. I’ve had it up to here
(if you could see me my hand is just above my eyebrows). I’m just
frustrated and flustered.”
What do you think of the twin 31 story condo towers:
http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/tomz911/3736
Oddly enough, this could be brilliant. At that height, this might be the only housing in that area that is high enough to be beyond range of some of the most intense smells in the area from field burning to crop fertilizer to chemical processing. The few people in the area with big equity might be driven to this tower out of a desire to breathe freely without having to move from the area.
From the comment section:
THE FUNNIEST THING ABOUT THE ANONYMOUS COMMENTS IS THAT WHEN THESE TOWERS ACTUALLY GO UP AND OPEN FOR BUSINESS THEY WILL PROBABLY BE THE FRIST PEOPLE TO WANNA LIVE, EAT AND SHOP AT THIS EXACT SAME PLACE THAT THEY WERE TALKING SO NEGATIVE ABOUT, COME ON PEOPLE WE ALL REMEMBER WHAT HAPPEN WITH THE MARKET PLACE OR DID WE FORGET? HISTORY WILL ALWAYS REPEAT ITS SELF. FOR MYSELF, CANT WAIT TO ENJOY LIVING IN ONE THE CONDOS EVEN BETTER SHOP AND EAT AT THE NEW STORES AND RESTAURANTS COMING TO BAKERSFIELD IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THESE TOWERS WILL ONLY MAKE BAKERSFIELD A BETTER AND A MORE FUN PLACE TO LIVE FROM YOUR LOCAL REALTOR AT CRISP & COLE REAL ESTATE jsalinas@crispandcole.com
Gosh from 31 stories I wonder if I could see more than one Kit Fox. I was always under the impression that there was only one, I kept seeing that thing wherever I went in Bakersfield.
Holy moley…340 comments. That’s gotta be a record!
Nope now 347, Now that may be a record.
Right ,lots of posts tonight .I think everyone knows it’s coming soon , the great housing glut of 2007. Neil could you pass me some popcorn for this one .
ok, I have been flying all day, (btw, they have plenty of land from my perspective today) and I am in Vancouver and too tired to read all of the comments, but I really wish any of the NARS would publish a scale of exactly what “softening” means??? anything less than 20% ??? my best recollection of financial terms is up to 10% is a correction, much more than that is a crash.. but nevermind, realty has nothing to do with reality.
Over 340 not sure but it has to be damn close
Wow, over 300 comments. The “market” is really picking up these days
… from our perspective.
Maybe volume on this site could be used as a leading economic indicator.
I would love to see a chart
It will be interesting when Discovery Channel, HGTV and the other channels - start running the first wave of real estate shows reflecting this new reality.
Also new shows can be added such as:
FLOP THIS HOUSE
BROKER TRASH TALK
IDIOT BUYER
I never understood how people could think that “equity” was free money!! It’s just another loan!!! I remember telling my own mother that about three years ago when she wanted me to take equity out to buy a second home to move up and rent out my first home. It just never made sense to me. Not at my single (decent) income. So, i ended up selling in 05
Yes, now is a great time to die. I mean buy of course.
‘If I hadn’t survived, everything would have been fine.’
How sad. And how decadent we’ve become. Just look at that quote. This gentleman actually thought for a moment that if he’d died, everything would be alright.
If he’d died, he wouldn’t know how things turned out.
But for him there would be no more smiles from pretty young girls, no more tang from a good wine nor bite from a cheap whiskey. No more breathing in air like a cold drink from a mountain spring. No more lifting a heavy chair into his truck; moving his muscles and feeling like a man. No more sunshine on his shoulders. no more rythmic music from the car next to his in traffic. No more restful wakenings on a sunday morning. no more errands for his wife, that while they can be a pain, will be sure to get him a hug and a kiss. no more hugs and kisses…
but I guess the old war between this government and that government is more important to us here, No?