January 26, 2007

“It Is Not Doom And Gloom, It Is Reality”: Florida

The Tampa Tribune reports from Florida. “It should be no surprise then that sales of existing homes locally fell 35 percent in 2006 after the hot real estate market a year before. Some real estate agents, such as Brenda Wade in Brandon, said she’s seeing homeowners lower asking prices. ‘Homes are down in value, I think,’ Wade said.”

“For example, Wade said, a home in the FishHawk Ranch neighborhood that went on the market in December 2005 listed at $850,000. The seller has gone through several real estate agents and lowered the price to $694,000. It’s still on the market.”

“Another home in the Brandon area was listed for $745,000 in January 2006, she said. The price dropped to $699,000 in June and then to $679,000 in August. In late December, one of Wade’s clients purchased the home for $575,000.”

“‘It’s a good market for buyers,’ she said, ‘and I think this year will be a good year because sellers are motivated and getting realistic. They see the for sale signs in their neighborhoods.’”

The News Press. “Lee County’s housing market took a tumble in 2006, ending the year with December prices of existing homes down 19 percent and sales down by almost half from a year earlier.”

“‘We had a lot of greed in 2006,’ said Larry Johnson, CEO of Old Florida Bank. ‘I had a lot of customers who held out for more and missed the deal’ when prices started to fall.”

“Wayne Watson bought the house next to his in Lehigh Acres for $300,000, intending to pay for it with proceeds from selling a house he owned in Gateway. But despite cutting the price numerous times he has been unable to sell the Gateway house.”

“Four days ago he dropped the price $20,000 to $279,000, Watson said. ‘I have to move this house,’ he said. ‘I told my Realtor, ‘Get it sold.’ This housing market sucks.’”

The Sun Sentinel. “After a five-year boom, Broward’s housing market faded last year. Broward now has 35,362 homes and condominiums for sale, more than double the number from this time last year, according to Keyes Co. Realtors.”

“Sherrie Nemetz of Plantation has been trying to sell her four-bedroom home for nearly a year. She finally fielded her first offer, and it was for more than $100,000 less than the $449,900 listing price. She has reduced the price and switched agents.”

“‘There are just so many houses on the market,’ Nemetz said. ‘If your house isn’t marketed correctly, there’s no incentive for people to look at it.’”

“Broward had one foreclosure for every 35 households in 2006, said a report released Thursday. The county had more than 21,000 foreclosures last year, up more than 55 percent from 2005.”

The Palm Beach Post. “Palm Beach County’s 37 percent decline in single-family resales in 2006 was second only to the Naples area, where existing home sales fell 41 percent. Naples’ 2006 sales were incomplete, however, partly because the Naples Area Board of Realtors did not report December sales.”

“The standoff between buyers and sellers caused inventory to climb to a peak of 28,886 unsold homes in September, falling to 21,888 by year’s end, a 71 percent increase, nevertheless, over December 2005, according to Illustrated Properties Real Estate.”

“‘The national housing market was like a trauma patient last summer, suffering multiple wounds and at death’s doorway,’ (analyst) Michael Larson said. ‘Since then, a mild decline in interest rates, and aggressive incentives and price-cutting, have helped stabilize the patient. But he’s not getting off the gurney and walking out the door - not for some time.’”

The St Petersburg Times. “In Pinellas County, December’s inventory of unsold single-family homes was 9,876, more than double what it was a year earlier. In Pasco County, condo listings nearly tripled from 2005, with 514 units on the market at year’s end.”

“Ann Guiberson, chief executive of the Pinellas Realtor Organization, said Florida’s coastal areas suffered most in the downturn. ‘The price may stay up, but buyers can get lots of concessions,’ Guiberson said.”

The Miami Herald. “Fewer single-family homes in Miami-Dade and Broward sold in 2006 than in any of the past 12 years, which is as far back as data from the Florida Association of Realtors goes. At the same time, far more houses and condos for sale came on the market — and sat there.”

“‘The current market is lackluster, and I don’t see an upside for several years to come,’ said real estate analyst David Dabby.”

“The clearest sign of a slowdown is in the swelling inventory of unsold homes, which must be reduced before the market recovers, observers say. The number of homes listed for sale actually decreased, albeit slightly, at the end of the year. From December 2005 through November 2006, the number of homes for sale in both counties jumped from 31,351 to 66,477. But in December 2006, it declined to 65,827.”

The Herald Tribune. “The median price for homes last month in the Sarasota-Bradenton market was $284,700, down 17 percent when compared with the same month last year. But sales were down only 7 percent — ‘only’ in the context of a market that has seen declines as high as 50 percent during the past six months.”

“‘What we are seeing is that the 2005 spike is gone and, in the real world, homes are selling for plus or minus what they were worth in 2004,’ said Al Horrigan of RSVP Real Estate in Bradenton. ‘It is not doom and gloom, it is reality. ‘When you see the handwriting on the wall, read it.’”

The Sun Times. “Confusion may be an understatement for the current state of the residential Real Estate market. Everything seems to be for sale. Many homes have literally had ‘for sale’ signs in the yard now approaching three years. Many similar properties have as much as a 30 to 40 percent difference in pricing.”

“Sweeping differences in asking prices, combined with the fact that many ‘asking prices’ are now down as much as 40 to 50 percent from the unsustainable levels just 18 months ago, certainly ‘confuses’ potential buyers, which is evident by the ‘locked tight’ position of their wallets.”

“The old saying, ‘Something is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it’ is clearly lost on many in the Real Estate community. Perhaps reducing the ‘artificially inflated and unsustainable’ current price levels may stimulate some buying activity.”

The News Journal. “Robert McGlone of Port Orange isn’t a Realtor, but he thinks it’s only common sense that the prices of homes in Volusia and Flagler need to come down. The retired engineer has become frustrated watching his 27-year-old son, who works at Lockheed Martin Corp. in Orlando, try to find a house he can afford.”

“‘My first house cost me twice my salary. He is up to four times his salary,’ McGlone said. ‘That’s a virtually impossible situation to overcome.’”

“The Florida Association of Realtors reported Thursday that home prices indeed have come down in the Volusia-Flagler market, as McGlone predicted. McGlone has seen the ‘for sale’ signs go up in his neighborhood. He said one house was on the market almost a year and finally sold after the owner dropped the price from $289,000 to $213,000.”

“‘I think the prices will keep coming down until the end of the year, despite what Realtors may say,’ McGlone said. ‘The prices have to keep going down until people can start affording houses again without killing themselves financially.’”




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63 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-01-26 10:40:24

‘For the first time in years, three of the nation’s largest moving companies say they’re transporting more customers out of Florida than into it. In 2006, what the industry calls ‘outbound’ moves actually surpassed ‘inbounds,’ according to data from United, Atlas and Allied van lines. The industry had seen a steady increase in the number of customers heading out of the state in the past five years.’

‘Many people who would have moved here in the past are now opting for Georgia and the Carolinas,’ said Mark Vitner, senior economist for Wachovia Bank. ‘Some Floridians are moving to Georgia and the Carolinas as well.’

‘A look at the difference in inbound and outbound Florida moves from 2004 to 2005 indicates a trend among the top 11 companies, said Mary Scott, spokeswoman for the American Moving and Storage Association. In 2004, 61,496 shipments came into the state and 43,372 left, Scott said. About the same number came into the state in 2005, Scott said, but 57,188 shipments left.’

‘The question would be, why would people want to leave one of those states? Did something go kerflewie in Florida?, Scott said.’

‘Last year’s decline in the national housing market could have played a part, said Jim Dewey, director of the economic analysis program at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida. Homeowners in the Northeast who had trouble selling their homes couldn’t afford to move, Dewey said. In addition, the spike in house prices in the last five years in Florida has made coming here less of a bargain. ‘It wouldn’t be a surprise to me that there is a temporary slow down,’ he said. ‘Real estate here has gone way up.’

Comment by GetStucco
2007-01-26 10:55:07

Maybe investors can make up for the drop in demand due to net out migration from Florida?

Comment by phillygal
2007-01-26 12:37:12

This is odd.

I read all the articles Ben linked to; not one mentioned Boomers coming in to save the day.

So I guess it is up to the investors.

 
Comment by chris_415
2007-01-26 12:45:16

I thought wealthy Europeans and Latin Americans looking for a safe haven for their assets were going to prop up the Florida RE market from now until eternity. Where did they go?????

 
 
 
Comment by Broward
2007-01-26 10:50:50

Long-time lurker, first-time poster:
I wanted to add my observation of the SFL housing market. Although there is much talk about falling prices (and they are coming down), there is still a lot of “dream/greed” pricing. For example:

What first caught my attention was the tag line in the MLS listing: “Buyer will entertain offers between $399k -$419k.” This inspired visions of the landed gentry sitting back on his estate as the peasants humbly submit offers for this great property (a townhouse, mind you!). And also, why would someone offer $419k in this market when the seller himself admits he’ll take $399k????
Anyway, since this development is close to where I live, I did some research. The complex is ok, if rather basic, with little landscaping and poor access to the nearby major road. And Davie, FL, while nice, is certainly nothing especially fancy either.
A quick MLS search showed 12 units for sale (out of 100, maybe??). County records show that most where purchased from the builder between 05/2005 and 08/2005 for around $283k-$290k. (Only two of 12 are owner-occupied.) Over a year later, sellers are asking $390k to $445k, with an average of $399k.
Examples:
1) Sold 08/05 -$288k; sold 01/2006 - $386k (20% down), asking: $445k; Days on Market (DOM): 94; Punchline: “Seller wants sold!”
2) Sold 05/05- $299k; sold 12/06- 385k (100% financed); 06/06- $108k HELOC; asking $439k,; DOM: 91 (owner occupied).
3) Sold 07/2005- $288k; sold (refi?): 11/2005- $400k; asking: $429k; DOM: 98 punchline: “priced to sell.”
4) Sold: 08/2005- $304k (20% down); asking: $399k; DOM 106, punchline: “entertaining offers $399-$419k”
5) Sold 04/2005- $282k, asking 07/2006- $419k; new asking $399k; DOM 203.
And it goes on…
HOA fees are $200/month and taxes roughly $6k/year, plus insurance and flood insurance.

Comment by John Law
2007-01-26 11:06:06

“HOA fees are $200/month and taxes roughly $6k/year, plus insurance and flood insurance.”

might as well stay in NY with those expenses!

Comment by zeropointzero
2007-01-26 12:09:16

And what the hell do you get for your $200 HOA? Landscaping and garbage removal? I understand Condo HOA’s, with the costs of water, heat/cooling (older buildings), common areas, building insurance, elevator/roof/exterior window work —– but what the hell do you get/need for townhouse HOA — I mean, it’s not a “gated” townhouse community is it?

I’d be miserable writing an HOA check every month just to keep the neighborhood medians mowed and the trash taken away and the sidewalks fixed every 20 years.

Comment by SFC
2007-01-26 12:29:38

Some of the Golf Communities here in Boca are $500/month. That does NOT include golf, or even use of the community tennis courts or pools. It includes maintenance of the common areas, mowing of your (usually very small) yard, basic cable etc. What it mostly includes is a huge profit for the management company.

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-01-26 13:23:49

Yet another reason to avoid HOAs: “What it mostly includes is a huge profit for the management company.”

Thanks for pointing this out, SFC.

 
Comment by Fran Chise
2007-01-26 15:07:53

Usually at least 15% but usually higher.

 
 
Comment by Jackie Childs
2007-01-26 22:54:03

And what the hell do you get for your $200 HOA?

I’m looking at a townhouse here in ATL and the HOA fees are $300/mo.

It inlcudes maintaining the pool, common areas, and insurance on the building. I was walking in the neighborhoold the other day and they were re-surfacing all of the patio decks, and painting the outside of the buildings.

FWIW

Jackie

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Comment by Chrisusc
2007-01-26 11:13:05

So a majority of the units may be non-owner occupied. Wonder how much deferred maintenance will take place when these people quit paying the HOA dues and the HOA cant pay for maintenance and upkeep. That place will be a money pit.

 
Comment by brahma
2007-01-26 11:23:38

This also means he will not entertain offers like 500K ;-)

Comment by JP
2007-01-26 11:29:12

And also, why would someone offer $419k in this market when the seller himself admits he’ll take $399k????

That always makes me laugh too. Can you imagine if the NYSE operated like that? “I’ll entertain between $5-$80 per share for my enron shares.”

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2007-01-26 11:36:32

Because it makes it look as though the place is actually worth $419K, but since the sellers “really like” you, they’ll sacrifice at $399K.

Pure marketing BS.

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Comment by sfbayqt
2007-01-26 13:40:48

I think that range pricing is a joke, as well, but I think it may have more to do with contingencies. The $399k offer (with no contingencies) will look better than the $419k or $410k offer with a number of contingencies along with having the potential buyer’s house selling, for instance.

Mind you, I’m not agreeing with this tactic, but I believe this is one of the ways they deal with how to price the property. Now, what would be really funny is to see the look on their face if someone offered a clean $300k with no other offers in sight and a very l-o-n-g DOM.

BayQT~

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Comment by Dan
2007-01-26 14:36:36

The “will entertain offers between” is called price ranging and some markets are moving to that strategy. The tactic is to get the listing show up on more searches…..if you cut off the search, for your example, at $399, the house would be invisible. They can’t negotiate and try to get you up to their price if you don’t know it’s on the market.

 
Comment by jag
2007-01-26 14:37:38

The first one will sell about 25-30% off the 400k asking (back to 05).

The others will take another 15-25% to move.

 
 
Comment by txchick57
2007-01-26 10:52:02

In the reader comments to the Sun-Sentinel story, someone posted a link to this blog (lol) and then here’s one from Jack McCabe

jackmccabe
Jacksonville, FL Reply »
|Flag for Review 39 min ago
To the readers:
I will not furnish my company’s real estate data or my analysis of the housing market to this reporter in the future.
I’ve discussed the continued inaccuracies, the writer’s consistent monthly posting of NAR misinformation and propaganda, and the “selective editing” of my comments to enhance the writers “slant” on stories, to no avail.
I’ve been informed that the NAR misinformation distributed here is “opinion”, and all opinions deserve to be heard with the same degree of credibility and relevance. I’ve rquested an accountability of quoted “experts” to help the readers determine who is correct and factual and who is not. this has fallen on deaf ears.
Best wishes to all readers.

Comment by JP
2007-01-26 11:36:03

The comments in that thread are a real hoot. My favorite

Lets do simple economics..PRICES WILL NOT GO DOWN BY ALOT! WHY? SIMPLE. People need equity in their homes to use for moving and prices need to be high so that the mortgages are not negative in comparision to the selling price. …

That poor sot …

 
Comment by P'cola Popper
2007-01-26 11:37:39

Awesome comments! Those people in Broward are raising hell. All right which one of you missionaries put this in the comment section:

“www.thehousingbubbleblog.com

It’s all there, folks.”

Good advice. One week on Ben’s blog and everything is clear from coast to coast.

Comment by P'cola Popper
2007-01-26 11:49:55

The NAR better boost the ad campaign to about $120 million if the rest of the country is anything like Broward. Recommend reading through the comments (about 50) to get a feel for the frustration in Broward. Damn funny stuff and fresh too!

How about this one:

“it would seem,that if someone takes the time and trouble to write something down and put it in print,than it must be true! yet day after day the story changes,prices are up ,down,firm etc i don’t care if someone makes a score on their house or not,i’am just sick of the B\S that gets reported here. in this market nothing changes that quick and that often,and if i’am so wrong why do sites like this exist”

and this one

“Is this supposed to be a joke? The Sun-Sentinel just got done telling us that house values are continuing to drop. Which way is it?”

 
 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-01-26 10:54:06

Some real estate agents, such as Brenda Wade in Brandon, said she’s seeing homeowners lower asking prices. ‘Homes are down in value, I think,’ Wade said. ‘It’s a good market for buyers,’ she said, ‘and I think this year will be a good year because sellers are motivated and getting realistic. They see the for sale signs in their neighborhoods.’”

She thimks values dropped? It’s only a good market for buyers because it is always a good time to buy real estate…

 
Comment by chillin' in dc
2007-01-26 11:04:43

“‘What we are seeing is that the 2005 spike is gone and, in the real world, homes are selling for plus or minus what they were worth in 2004,’ said Al Horrigan of RSVP Real Estate in Bradenton. ‘It is not doom and gloom, it is reality. ‘When you see the handwriting on the wall, read it.’”

That is what this board has been saying for a long time - pricing has come down to 2004 pricing. If houses are only moving at 2004 prices now, it won’t be long before we are back to late 1990’s pricing.

Comment by eastcoaster
2007-01-26 11:10:56

…it won’t be long before we are back to late 1990’s pricing.

I so want that to be true. At that point, I’m definitely in.

Comment by Chip
2007-01-26 18:07:54

“At that point, I’m definitely in.”

Yup — many of us will be.

 
 
Comment by cayo_ron
2007-01-26 11:15:13

“‘We had a lot of greed in 2006,’ said Larry Johnson, CEO of Old Florida Bank”
And 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999. . .

 
 
Comment by TedK
2007-01-26 11:14:39

chilling in DC,

I don’t think late 90’s price will come quickly enough to be meaningful to buyers-in-waiting. I will buy if they fall at least to 2003 prices. The problem is in NoVA sellers are still in the late 2004/early 2005 price range.

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-01-26 11:37:40

If you’re in a “I need a house” situation, you can now start to find sellers in the “I need to offload a house” situation. In my neighborhood, people are selling from $230K to $300K for the EXACT SAME HOUSE plus or minus a few features. The realistic ones (the only ones popping up ctg on the MLS) are hovering in the $230 - 240K range. I wouldn’t say it’s a good time to buy, but as we start to see 2004 and 2003 prices it starts to look like a better time. Just as a comparison, in 2001 homes that sold in my neighborhood were running $160K. In 2004, just after they put up a new side to the development they were in the $250K range. Summer of 05 people were fetching $320K on up for these houses. We just bought in December, but I did my homework by living on the property tax website and this BLOG. We bought at $221K which should be a solid place, even if we don’t see any value increase for many years. We bought the house to live in…imagine that.

 
Comment by DC_Too
2007-01-26 11:45:53

NoVa is already down 12-15% from peake - summer ‘05. It is wildly overbuilt, inventory has exploded and sales volume has plummeted. Unless the “buyer in waiting” is waiting in a phone booth, I will disagree and say prices WILL come down quickly enough to be meaningful.

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-01-26 12:01:12

What was missing from my comments are my personal story is from FL…however VA/DC area is very similar. The foreclosures are mounting. I’ve got a colleague there who just scored a townhome in Arlington for $399K. We’re talking ‘01-’02 prices on that one.

Comment by TedK
2007-01-26 16:48:58

That is interesting. I have been looking in the Fairfax/Vienna/Falls Church/Annandale areas and I haven’t yet found anything where the listed price has fallen to mid 2004 levels.Only a few have fallen to late 2004 levels. I haven’t started a serious search, but because of family pressures, will have to do so by the summer, at least in the fall this year. That is why I say it may not fall fast enough.
And agents discourage offering 2003 prices because they think owners will be insulted. But I am hoping that during the negotiation phase, some sellers may drastically reduce the prices.

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Comment by Chip
2007-01-26 18:11:33

Ted — I recommend you blanket your area RE offices with a brief e-mail saying that you’re looking for an agent to represent you and that you will be making lowball offers. A lot of these people are starving and I’m certain you would get a number of positive responses. Brokers don’t make any money when their agents sell nothing. For that matter, the offices with the fewest active listings should be the ones to jump at having a buyer in tow.

 
 
 
Comment by novasold
2007-01-26 12:02:18

Fellow DC metro area posters:

I drive from Falls Church to Skyline via Gallows Road/Columbia Parkway. Right on the corner of Gallows and Rt. 29 are two new condo buildings under contruction. Of course I can’t remember the name of them and the sign they had up blew down.

Over the last two weeks I’ve noticed barely any construction workers there. There are some but less than 20 total for these two huge buildings. I’m wondering if they will ever be completed.

Another observation. I’m really wondering how prices will change inside the beltway. Loudoun, in my opinion is toast, period. Prices are really crashing out there. Some of the neighborhoods I’ve kept track of are -20% and dropping. I’m seeing REOs out there too. Inside the beltway one thing I’ve noticed in Vienna and Falls Church specifically is that there are a lot of older homes that have had nothing at all updated on them. Lots and lots of them. I rented one of them last year in Vienna. The house had a constant draft b/c the windows are 40 years old and had many, many other problems. As things proceed I wonder how these older homes will affect home prices. Everyone says that inside the beltway there won’t be much of a decline, but in neighborhoods like these I think the older houses that need updates will drag down the prices of the rehabbed houses.

What do you all think?

I love the house I’m living in but I’m never going to be able to afford it! Besides my landlord has owned since 1994 so it’s got good cash flow for him at 1850 per month.

Comment by zeropointzero
2007-01-26 12:21:14

Drive down Wilson Blvd. from Ballston to Rosslyn — and you’ll see a ton of recent buildings, as well. I see a couple blocks of funky buildings - include the homes of long time Vietnamese restaurants Queen Bee and Cafe Dalat - finally all closed and obviously ready for the wrecking ball. And there’s a ton of new condos in Alexandria, especially along Route 1 and near the King Street metro and Eisenhower Ave.

These are close-in, metro-accessible - and admittedly fun neighborhoods — but, taken as a whole, the amount of new volume is incredible.

And this doesn’t even consider the condo-boom in DC in the 14th St. corridor, Shaw and U Street. And there are lots of plans for new buildings near the new baseball stadium.

If I were a person who had bought a condo in DC or close-in burbs in the last few years, the amount of new inventory still coming on line would be making me extremely nervous.

My folks had an investment condo near pentagon city for about 17 years - and had a pretty good experience renting it. I can’t believe how prescient (or just lucky) they were to sell it in 2005.

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Comment by TedK
2007-01-26 17:16:46

novasold,
I agree that prices in Loudoun CO will continue to keep falling more. This week an REO property in Oakton has become inactive in ziprealty.com –I think some sucker paid close to $770K in 2005 and after defaulting and price was reduced to $612K, I think this TH was sold. There are still suckers willing to pay $600K + for a TH.

Agreed that older properties will fall more. I won’t even look at a property if it has words like ‘renovated’, ‘rehabbed’, etc in the listing.

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Comment by Crash Landers
2007-01-26 11:15:46

Here in los angeles I am also seeing homes selling for 2004 prices plus or minus a little bit. but there are very very few sales coming thru.

Asking prices still insane, but actual sales are either low priced (04 levels) or the home is SPECTACULAR and unique location(rare).

see my blog for proof if you havent already http://realestatehaircuts.blogs

Comment by Crash Landers
2007-01-26 11:16:29
 
 
Comment by Mike G
2007-01-26 11:16:10

“‘My first house cost me twice my salary. He is up to four times his salary,’ McGlone said.

I can only wish. In my region of SoCal it’s twelve times my salary for a starter house.

…it won’t be long before we are back to late 1990’s pricing.

Bring it on.

Comment by Marc Authier
2007-01-26 11:28:26

In Montréal, Québec, it’s about 6 times the average salary.
California bubble has a good MINUS 50% before hitting bottom.

Comment by Northern Renter
2007-01-26 13:40:47

Salut Marc Authier,

Yeah, but real estate is not as frothy here in Montreal as it is down in the States, partly due to the relative absence of interest-only type loans and no mortgage interest deduction on taxes. My wife and I have our eyes on the houses in a few particular streets in TMR and are hoping for a real estate bloodbath; the current prices there are about $450 K Cdn. Based on historical RE prices (divided by the inflation rate) the RE prices here are about 30% overvalued. Do you know how the ratios are with respect to rentals?

Northern Renter

 
 
Comment by AZ_BubblePopper
2007-01-26 12:16:00

I know! Tell your boss you want to buy a house and ask him for a 400% raise so you can afford the payments.

Let us know how the current global wage arbitrage discussion goes with your boss.

Comment by Fran Chise
2007-01-26 15:22:38

Some employers (colleges, universities, etc.) fund shared appreciation loans. If they would only reduce the loan if it goes down…

 
 
Comment by flat
2007-01-27 07:45:22

if you see 2002 pricing the recession will be so bad you won’t havbe a job

 
 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-01-26 11:29:23

when is it a crash ?
keep in mind it started down in 05 in FL - so were’ off peak by 23%
prices of existing homes down 19 percent and sales down by almost half from a year earlier.”

 
Comment by Left LA Behind
2007-01-26 11:30:04

The next best thing to watch SFL implode (deservably) will be watching SoCal tank!

 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-01-26 11:32:14

realtor= idiots
‘Homes are down in value, I think,

 
Comment by truthout
2007-01-26 11:55:39

“‘It’s a good market for buyers,’ she said, ‘and I think this year will be a good year because sellers are motivated and getting realistic. They see the for sale signs in their neighborhoods.’”

Translation:
“This year will suck but I am still trying to fool you”

Comment by phillygal
2007-01-26 12:05:03

Sounds like she’s trying to suck up to buyers. No more reference to “stubborn” buyers, or “vultures” sitting on fences…the rhetoric is changing.

And this guy, from the Tampa Trib article:
Mark Vitner, an economist with Wachovia, said the market is about halfway through its down cycle.

“Some are saying it’s bottomed out,” he said, “but I think it’s too soon to think that.”

Wonder if he means halfway timewise or percent-wise?

Comment by Darth Toll
2007-01-26 12:36:35

Good point. Many of us here have opined that Reatwhores would eventually be instrumental in driving prices DOWN and it looks like that is finally starting to happen.

OT: Anybody considering buying now should seriously re-think it, several times if necessary. There’s no hurry, after all, because prices are still going down so it only makes sense to wait. I’ve got a few friends who are just itching to buy right now but if we can just get to March or April, I think it will be plain to everybody that RE is crash landing and it won’t be safe to buy until prices are around 1999-2000 levels.

Comment by Neil
2007-01-26 14:46:44

Good point. Many of us here have opined that Reatwhores would eventually be instrumental in driving prices DOWN and it looks like that is finally starting to happen.

Yep… its a transaction fee based industry. No transactions, no fees and thus no income.

So the realtors ™ will begin pressuring sellers to drop prices. Partially as they must pay their monthly nut for advertising, etc.

23% off peak? Its only started. Florida will easily hit 50% off peak and might keep going.

I agree, don’t buy in 2007. Heck, 2008 might not even be smart.

Got popcorn?
Neil

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Comment by AZ_BubblePopper
2007-01-26 12:01:27

“‘We had a lot of greed in 2006,’ said Larry Johnson, CEO of Old Florida Bank. ‘I had a lot of customers who held out for more and missed the deal’ when prices started to fall.”

Ahhh, that’s a relief. Greed only reared its ugly head in 2006. I guess there wasn’t any in prior years. I’m glad it’s over now that it’s 2007 now.

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-01-26 12:32:46

In 06? Come on now! That’s when the tables started to turn on the greedy. The real greed was when the expectation was to buy a house for $150K, do absolutely nothing but hold it for 90 days and sell for $200K. Then, buy for $250K, hold for 90 day, sell for $350K. You know who you are, and your time is up! Hope you weren’t holding too many!

 
Comment by Fran Chise
2007-01-26 15:26:52

This makes my sister-in-law look like a genius for selling an investment penthouse while drunk at a cocktail party in March 2005. The stopped clock is right….

She should keep drinking.

 
 
Comment by Mo Money
2007-01-26 12:02:15

Davids Lie-a-reah’s stellar track record.

http://tinyurl.com/ytkgth

Comment by Jerry from Richardson
2007-01-26 18:28:29

Are his toes and fingers still crossed?

 
 
Comment by Nathan
2007-01-26 12:16:43

The greed is everywhere just look at these outrageous asking prices by the sellers that are chasing a market that no longer exists. The greed will continue once the for sale signs start coming out in large numbers for the spring selling season that will turn out to be a disaster.

 
Comment by AZ_BubblePopper
2007-01-26 12:26:47

Any notice the spike in CFC today on speculation BofA might acquire Countywide? If BofA actually follows through they may be the best short of 2007.

Comment by txchick57
2007-01-26 12:29:42

I may never sell that stock. I’ve been able to hedge it since 1995 by selling calls when appropriate and buying puts.

 
 
Comment by SKB (Florida)
2007-01-26 12:47:47

I think I should start getting some calls from a lot of agents very soon now. I told all of them to call me when the prices declined by 50% and I could get my dream home for 150,000. To bad for them now that I will be telling them I am working without an agent as they all laughed when I said 50% haircuts.

SKB

Comment by Crazy G
2007-01-26 13:59:09

You can buy an empty “”RV”" lot @ Vacation Inn Resorts in Riveria Bch for $150,000.. And bring your ‘dream camper’ there, to spent your days wondering what it would be like to live in a real house.
2/2 Divosta townhouses are going for + $225/K..Dream-ON lady

 
 
Comment by Sniggle
2007-01-26 13:29:37

“The old saying, ‘Something is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it’ is clearly lost on many in the Real Estate community. Perhaps reducing the ‘artificially inflated and unsustainable’ current price levels may stimulate some buying activity.”

This statement is spot on. Hooray for William Hague.

 
Comment by Eastofwest
2007-01-26 19:31:17

…you’re going to be surprised that even when the prices drop to a level you said you would buy,the market may be still going down, the economy in the dumper ,and you will have to think whether even this is the prudent time to buy. Remember JDSU, Enron, even pets.com from on high.?…Looked like a bargain at half off,but you may want to wait ,and see how far it goes down….

 
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