Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For January 28, 2007
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
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Sorry to cross post from another blog, but this one is just classic!
PRICES/EASYRENTER: What on Earth is your point? That there are apartments for rent? How do you expect landlords to fill their apartments without listing them as available? Are renters psychic? Or just psycho — like you?
Finally, are you recommending that someone throw out $1500 a month to rent a 1 br apartment on the edge of a slum? How about $2800 a month for a house in a gentrifying slum area? Are you out of your mind (don’t answer that -it’s obvious).
Do you realize you have to earn almost 50K a year just to cover your rent???
As a landlord, one thing I do as a matter of ethics is advise potential tenants that renting is not a sound financial policy, IMHO.
—-End quote
So nice to advise you “renters” that renting is not sound finacial policy. I am sure that you then turn around and offer to sell them that property, as you must be a RE agent to be such an idiot.
If anyone is interested, this if from the Palm Beach Post:
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/palmbeach/realestate/entries/2007/01/24/whats_your_house_worth.html
Yeah, 50K a year to cover the rent. Or 200K a year to cover the MTG/taxes/insurance/etc. Oh, and for your extra 150K, you also get to watch the value drop like a stone.. Enjoy.
I love these, they’re awesome, but my recollection of Pompano Beach was that it was something of a pit. Is anything there worth $1.3M?
http://fortlauderdale.condocompany.com/Pompano-Beach/PL104903/
Well, 4000sq/ft, oceanfront, for 1.3M? I think that’s high, but not out of this world. There are 1.3M dollar condos in Downtown WPB that are “crack town front”, right around the same size. So, I don’t think that the prices are totally out of line.
I would think about 200-250 sq/ft is probably about right for oceanfront, although I have very little experience in this market. Also, the incredible insurance burden might make that number too high, I can’t imagine what it costs to insure a highrise building on a sand dune in S. FL today. I am sure it’s kind of shocking, whatever the number is.
They are ready to warmly welcome you when you come to spend your “Golden Years” in Palm Beach County.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/localnews/content/local_news/epaper/2007/01/28/m1a_streetguns_0128.html
I see those routinely advertised for sale on Craigslist in various cities. I and a couple of locals have succeeded in getting them knocked off the Dallas CL but they are every where else.
You object to people selling guns on Craigslist? You even get the ads pulled?
You must have a lot of time on your hands…
Yes and Yes.
It is a TOU violation of the site to sell guns.
2nd try. maybe a dopple post
german business confidence ….lessons for the us from the german real estate slump
plus
The Fairy-Tale Junk Bond Market / barrons
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/
Good morning Ben and all. Long Time Lurker (2 Years). I know a lot of you were watching the Florida property auction on ebay. I had the good fortune to be there in person as I had nothing better to do on a Saturday than go to the Seminole Casino. A couple of people asked me to report what I saw in person so here goes. I will also post this in the Florida blog this morning if it is relevant.
I arrived when the sixth property was being bid on and left with about ten properties left to go (3.30 ish).
At the beginning of the Auction I would say that there was about fifty people in the room that would easily hold 500 and had seating for 400. There was a title company booth and a mortgage company hawking 0 down ARM’s. I was flabbergasted to see that they had two high school cheerleaders at the front to “entertain” the crowds (maybe they should have hired strippers!).
I spend my time in Dade and Broward County and can only really comment on values of those properties. The first 19 properties were all from the west coast of Florida that all “sold” for what seemed low money. However something was going on that to me, as no auction expert seemed fishy. Seven of these properties were “recalled” and re auctioned later on in the sale, one of them was “recalled” twice. Was this apparent on the ebay site? I thought that once the gavil went down then the sale was done?
An example, 25124 Macada Dr. Punta Gorda 33983. First time round the Auctioneer started off at 300K dropped down to where there was an ebay bid of $100K. About an hour later it was “recalled” Bidding started at the ebay price of 100K and the property was bid up to $150K in the room.
Another example. 4110 NE 23rd Ave Cape Coral. 33909. Auctioneer (there was two in the room alternating listings) started at $300K, first bid was at 100K ended up selling at 225k in the room. Half an hour later it was recalled. Bidding was started at the in room price of 225k. There were no extra bidders for the property. It was then recalled a second time somewhat later where bidding started at $100K again and got to $150K where it sold again. Strange. All Properties were sold Subject to confirmation, What does that mean, I thought that all bidders are verified before the sale starts?
If I had to guess many of the sellers at this auction were owners of multiple properties that were for sale today some were obviously developers getting rid of just finished inventory in a new subdivision (Cypress way, Coconut Creek) another was a condo converter, who was dumping units in Melbourne (some still with tenants). Those all sold for $100k each. I wonder what the comps WERE in that conversion?
Ok now, Las Olas In downtown Fort Lauderdale. 1509 Ne 5th ct 33301, which according to Broward county assessors office is owned by Mr. Richard Shannon. Purchased on 15th September 2005 (Hurricane Wilma anyone?) for $560K. Sold at this auction to an ebay seller for $400K. This strikes me as Way too much still! From memory I think you could just about squeeze two townhouses on the lot if you knocked it down. In 1995 the place sold for $50,000.
Once Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties were done most people left. There was a lot of vacant land for sale with not a lot of interest from the room. I left when they moved on to Brevard County. I checked on the silent auctions for the 58 vacant lots –not much action if any. Most people were leaving…
There were only a couple of people that appeared to be the sellers at the auction. One typical South Florida Boob Job girl Mid 40’s red dyed long hair (makes a change from blonde) that seemed involved with the West coast of Florida Properties. She seemed “in” with the auctioneers, I wondered if she was the gal who had tried to sell a lot of places on the west coast of FL a while ago at auction and was trying again??? She seemed resigned and a little Grim.
I was sitting at the front by the three people who were running the Ebay bids. They seemed to be involved with the recalling of auctions. A few couples wandered up when certain houses came up for sale stayed for a couple of properties and left with not much reaction. I saw no wailing or gnashing of teeth!
One Buyer in the room got upset when they recalled a property he had won for I think 125K and they (the auctioneers) claimed that there had been an ebay bid for $150K, He was pissed and was about to create a scene except that he was steered out the room by one of the girls!
I would say there were about 12 to 15 bidders in the room, the rest were like me,- looky loos!
If anyone has any specific questions about the auction I would be delighted to answer them.
Have a great Day
Captain John
“All Properties were sold Subject to confirmation, What does that mean,”
Confirmation from the sellers on whether they wanted to accept the bid. That wasn’t really an auction, just a fishing expedition.
So a true auction would be an “absolute” auction? And this is why I saw Lots being “recalled”?
Classic “auction” scam, where it’s really a high-speed real estate listing process. Offers are made and the owner gets to decide whether to take the high one, or, as they like to say “not give the house away”.
What these scams are doing are wasting the time of a lot of people, and really giving auctions a bad name - meaning when the real auctions take place (i.e., REOs), a lot of potential buyers, who have been turned off by these scams, will not show up. But come to think of it, without those dimwit bidders, maybe bargains will start to appear then.
‘Classic “auction” scam, where it’s really a high-speed real estate listing process. Offers are made and the owner gets to decide whether to take the high one, or, as they like to say “not give the house away”.’
Unless it was unclear to the bidders that the rules of the game allowed sellers to refuse offers they did not like after all the bids were in, I don’t see how this is a scam. It is simply one possible way to conduct an auction, which is an alternative sales mechanism to the list-and-wait approach. In general, in order to have a home sell without coercion, you need a buyer willing to pay more than the seller is willing to accept, and such an auction mechanism is one way for sellers to test the water without the risk of immediately succumbing to seller’s regret (selling the home for well below what the seller fantasized it was worth).
That said, this passage leads me to think the rules of the game might have not been clearly communicated to the bidders, who seemed to believe that the auction was absolute:
‘An example, 25124 Macada Dr. Punta Gorda 33983. First time round the Auctioneer started off at 300K dropped down to where there was an ebay bid of $100K. About an hour later it was “recalled” Bidding started at the ebay price of 100K and the property was bid up to $150K in the room.’
Even if few or no sales are transacted, such auction processes provide valuable insight into current market values. For instance, if the bidding stops at $150K, then regardless of whether the bid is accepted, the indication is that the auction price of the property is not much above $150K, and maybe lower. And conducting the same auction another 10 times with different GFs in the bid pool is not likely to yield much difference in results.
I could accept the premise, that the auction highest bid is about 80% of what the property is worth is properly marketed to the public in the MLS. At least at a thinly attended auction like this one, where the bidders were scouring for better than usual deals.
But that’s about it. The true market can’t be any higher.
“I could accept the premise, that the auction highest bid is about 80% of what the property is worth is properly marketed to the public in the MLS.”
Hard to say, though Levitt (of Freakonomics fame) has presented evidence that you can sell for more, but will take longer to sell, by listing higher and waiting. Not sure if this would hold up when prices are trending down, however. I hope the updated version of his study that shows how Realtors lose their shirts by playing this game in a falling market is forthcoming…
Maybe we don’t have a word in the English Language for this type of pricing exercise, but the definition that I read is:
Auction: “Also called public sale. a publicly held sale at which property or goods are sold to the highest bidder.”
Note that it says “are sold” not “could be sold” or “might be sold”. Most people that I know think of an auction as ending in something being sold, but I do understand the concept of a “reserve”, but that’s also toying with the definition. But we’re all stuck with this language, so we’ll have to live with people thinking of these broker/(potential)FB get-togethers as “auctions”.
In reality, I think the real purpose here is for the brokers to wake up the property owners to the reality that their $500k S-box is really worth something like $325k, and only if they sell soon (assuming that they not underwater at that price). If these “auctions” serve that purpose, perhaps it will help prices find their lower limit a bit more quickly.
Actually, by the definition above, if a seller goes to a “real” auction, and a single bid is placed, then the seller must sell - no second thoughts permitted. But I do agree with GS that the price an auction fetches will typically be lower than true market value (unless very well publicized and well attended).
‘…but I do understand the concept of a “reserve”, but that’s also toying with the definition.’
Lets agree to talk about ‘absolute auctions’ and ‘reserve auctions’ and be done with it…
Agreed - I promised my son to have a debate with you.
Promise kept.
“I promised my son to have a debate with you.”
Glad I could help you keep your promise
I disagree that auction prices are above “market prices”. Check out wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winner%27s_curse
John Doe
‘I disagree that auction prices are above “market prices”.’
Not sure who you are disagreeing with. But to clarify, the auction price is typically lower than what you can get by listing with a wishing price and waiting. The only time that I could see this backfiring is if the market took a real dump, in which case those who listed and waiting get to experience the “looser’s curse” while those who got out ahead of the dump by auction sale can rightfully proclaim, “There but by the grace of God go I.”
Thanks Cap’n John! Nothing like having someone on location, and that was an excellent report. Sounds like a real waste of auction time, especially for the poor bidders (like the one guy who “won” but then was told he didn’t — boy is that crap or what?).
Amazing to have so many recalled, as well, and sounds real fishy. If anything, events like this will drive REAL auction buyers away from future auctions there, at least anything run by the clowns who managed this one, since the serious buyers are the ones least likely to have a day to waste for nothing.
Hey thanks for the info. It was very enlightening.
thanks captain john, I was curious about what this auction would look like, I think the big story here is may be the low turn out, they spent a fortune on advertising, and if that is all that turned out, it speaks volumes about “demand”….
We need to discuss more about the Not-So-Federal Reserve’s role in all of the real estate bubbles and stock market bubbles.
From wikipedia: Macroeconomists, including the current chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank Ben Bernanke, have revived the debt-deflation view of the Great Depression originated by Arthur Cecil Pigou and Irving Fisher. In the 1920s, in the U.S. the widespread use of the home mortgage and credit purchases of automobiles and furniture boosted spending but created consumer debt. People who were deeply in debt when a price deflation occurred were in serious trouble—even if they kept their jobs, they risked default. They drastically cut current spending to keep up time payments, thus lowering demand for new products.
Furthermore, the debt became heavier, because prices and incomes fell 20–50%, but the debts remained at the same dollar amount. With future profits looking poor, capital investment slowed or completely ceased. In the face of bad loans and worsening future prospects, banks became more conservative in lending. They built up their capital reserves, which intensified the deflationary pressures. The vicious cycle developed and the downward spiral accelerated. This kind of self-aggravating process may have turned a 1930 recession into a 1933 depression.
Must-see videos: The Money Masters
“…one of the bits of rhetoric the pfizer chief used in his statements was that this cutting would allow them to consider increasing “outsourcing” of their safety and metabolism trials…that was one of the big activities done here at the local facility.
I saw a pharma site talking about this…how they can have much cheaper safety and metabolism trials in india, which they do already in smaller part, and they can store and manage data in china or wherever, eastern europe for trials and data too.
Outsourcing of jobs we’d not previously considered outsourceable is going to take off I think, and it will suck for people here. Engineers, chemists, biologists…google india shouldn’t be too far off either.”
This is taken from Shel’s post on the employment thread from yesterday re Michigan. Henry Ford paid his workers enough so they could buy the cars they built. So who does Pfizer think will pay for their drugs–the gov’t? The cost of drugs in the US has always included the costs of R&D–so if all the R&D is outsourced what justification for Americans to pick up those costs for consumers world-wide? Corporate outsourcing is cannibalizing the US employment market–from manufacturing to services to high-end R&D–and they expect no political fall-out from highly educated, increasingly unemployable folks? If the 2.2 million foreclosure number is anywhere close to accurate, and Pfizer’s increasingly up-the-food-chain outsourcing indicates what other corporations have in the works–aren’t we looking at some real political unrest? More than simply bail-out demands from FBs but something far bigger and more unsettling? Something that could permanently alter the American landscape-economically and politically. The Great Depression was relatively peaceful–think the future will be?
The Great Depression was relatively peaceful–think the future will be?
My grandfather, who had his car flipped and burned during the general strike (1934), lost his job as a result of that, and did not get back on his feet for 13 years, might have begged to differ on that.
My father was born in 1921 and lived in Ohio with his grandparents on a farm. They fed hobos in exchange for work. The hobos were friendly, well-behaved, gracious, and civilized. It was a mono-culture. In the next great depression in the U.S. it will be Asians against Whites, Whites against blacks, blacks against hispanics, and so on. This liberalism of the last 35 years fostered stupid PC cultural relativism and multi-culturalism. They tried to cram it down our throats, but inside, racism festers. The simple reason is your own personal culture. You listen to your parents and grandparents speak of, say, European influences or confucian influences and it is part of your subconscious. Go to any college campus these days. Asians hang out with Asians, hispanics with hispanics, etc. It’s the comfort level. Now the liberals robbed us all of our own cultures on the every day conscious level, but we will return to them when push comes to shove.
A severe deflationary era will be a fight for scarce resources, particularly jobs. Perhaps 1 out of 3 of us will be unemployed. It will happen also in Japan, Russia, England, and the rest of Europe.
While fitness swimming this morning, I was thinking of the demographic statistics I found on Wickipedia. All the developed nations have a rapidly aging population. The depression can be postponed if these aging boomers continue working and postpone retirement. Otherwise, I think there will be no asset class that will do better than 6% annual gains for the next 20 years. In that case, I concluded that the best investment approach is to invest in your own productivity gain, come up with an idea of doubling or tripling your annual income. Also you must become very flexible and able to move to another city, perhaps 2500 miles away, within a week to keep earning a high income. Second to this, you should assume a 5% annual gain on your investments and diversify across all asset classes.
If you are a good doctor, your future is rosy. For the rest of us, it’s dog eat dog.
“This liberalism of the last 35 years fostered stupid PC cultural relativism and multi-culturalism.”
oh god people, give it a rest.
It sounds like my long-term renting mentality will serve me well. But just last week my sister told me, “renting is throwing your money away?” Could she possibly be wrong?
you really cannot help yourself injecting your political views. it is sad.
Where even to begin with opinions like that. Did you notice that you are posting this using the Internet with a browser in a manner that was not possible until quite recently? Other technologies from basic library management, biotech, energy usage and such continue to produce massive paybacks for the investors that have the capacity to support research and development. Technology development continues to be the best hope for addressing real and pressing problems like oil scarcity and pollution. All of the most important technological developments are driven by international cooperation, especially with the Indians and Chinese, but also with the Irish and other standouts. The long American history of discrimination such as you endorse must necessarily now fail and retreat.
Bill-
Multiculturalism is not some sort of organized ideology- multiple cultures are here, and now they are, why not recognize that fact and find a way to make it a strength, not a weakness?
And while the hobos on a farm in Ohio might have been ‘civilized’, the marxist stevedores in San Francisco were not, the bomb-throwing anarchists in Buffalo and Chicago were not, and to reaction to miners organizing in West Virginia was not, and the general persecution of even peaceful anarchists (Vanzetti, if not necessarily Sacco) also was not.
The good old days were not so, and the dire present is not so, except in the rhetorical excesses of alarmist reactionaries. There is trouble ahead, sure, but we have survived it in the past and emerged stronger as a nation, and we are likely to do so again.
–
Yes, America was a lot less dangerous place during the 1930s. The coming Greater Depression will be far more violent. In bad times, Diversity is Deadly! The harmony between various groups has been bought with the false economy of borrow-and-spend. Its time is up.
How many people are aware of the serious White Flight from Silly.con Valley (11.7% in five years!) and the Asian Explosion that is filling part of the void? What do you suppose is behind the out-sourcing of increasingly high-value products and services, including pharma?
Jas
California in the 30s was mostly white, but not so diverse as you think. There may be a larger underclass now, but the 30s working class was more politically radical than anything seen since WWII (unless you consider the hippie-boomers to be radical, which is questionable - although that is outside the scope).
–
“California in the 30s was mostly white, but not so diverse as you think.”
Yes, I know.
“There may be a larger underclass now, but the 30s working class was more politically radical than anything seen since WWII (unless you consider the hippie-boomers to be radical, which is questionable - although that is outside the scope).”
I agree. But, this time around there will be the added component that gets UGLY fast. In 30s, it was primarily a class issue. It would be much more in the coming depression.
Jas
Jas-
Sorry for the mangled syntax that came off as patronizing.
I agree about the ugliness to come, which will have a racial/ethnic theme. If we see a return to urban rioting, certain cities may need decades more to recover.
The vast ownership of guns in our country will have unintended consequences, as when things get truly desperate, I think far too many of our countrymen will feel a sense of false entitlement and the rule of the gun may for a time, be the way the country is run, sadly.
Ground zero for all the fun will obviously be our larger cities, where any shred of self sufficiency has been sucked out of the populace and the desperation will be amazing.
Aladin said: “The vast ownership of guns in our country will have unintended consequences, as when things get truly desperate, I think far too many of our countrymen will feel a sense of false entitlement and the rule of the gun may for a time, be the way the country is run, sadly.”
Huh? That’s why we HAVE guns. Why do you think target practice was invented….and hunting….it’s just a front for the REAL action to come.
From todays OC Register “Santa Ana spends half its budget on police”.
“Orange County has 314 gangs, mostly Hispanic, law-enforcement officials say, with 92 of them in 350,000-resident Santa Ana.”
http://tinyurl.com/2jfes2
So you are looking forward to an amazing amount of Forest Gump types, (without the charm) laying down the law, on the basis of who is armed best?
So you are looking forward to an amazing amount of Forest Gump types, (without the charm) laying down the law, on the basis of who is armed best?
Isnt that what we have now pretty much with the gov being best armed, the US Constituion is trash in most peoples eyes.
Violence will most certainly be a much greater factor this time around, but it won’t be due to guns. Guns are no more a factor now than they were then. It’s the mindset of the people that has changed.
Katrina is highly illustrative of future conditions. Angry, scared people either incapable of helping themselves -or- destructively helping themselves to other people’s things, all in the midst of a failing infrastructure and scarce public services.
Unlike the 30’s, we have a population lacking basic craft skills and any sense of self-sufficiency. Too many people are dependent upon the government for damn near everything. What happens when the government can’t help, or the help is deemed somehow lacking?
Combine the housing bust, deflation, a lost war and ethnic hostility, especially with one group being replaced by another (blacks replaced by hispanics), and the future looks fun for single guys like me. If a Democrat president brings home the troops and there are no jobs for them, then the fun begins.
“Something that could permanently alter the American landscape-economically and politically.”
Of course this statement has more or less immediate impact depending on which state you live in. Here in CA most would say who gives a damn on whether they outsource or not. In CA it would be all about illegals, welfare and workers comp costs. Plus the best paying jobs with benies are police, CHP, prison guards, firemen,etc and who needs an expensive education to land one. Second tier are teachers, government workers (state, county, city), social workers, etc, but the bottom line is that you can’t outsource their jobs and when you threaten to hold their salaries at bay they beat their chests and with the MSM’s help proclaim how your personal safty or your kid’s education will be at risk if you don’t open the money faucet. Where the money is going to come from to cover current and retirement costs is never put into the equation, at least not until a depression rears its ugly head.
Prisons, especially here in California, have been turned into a profitable business, that rare bird of an industry in our country, where no foreigners are going to undercut us. A beautiful business model, really. Take worthless flat Central California land, spend a ton building the prison and you’ll have to staff it 24/7 forever, a win/win, sort of.
As a country, we are the WORLDWIDE Leaders in the number of convicts in our prison system, we now house 737, per 100,000 of
our citizens, in a penetentiary, near you. To give you an idea of how we rank, Germany has 94 per 100k and Canada has 107 per 100k, in comparison.
http://www.kcl.ac.uk//depsta/rel/icps/worldbrief/highest_to_lowest_rates.php
“As a country, we are the WORLDWIDE Leaders in the number of convicts in our prison system, we now house 737, per 100,000 of
our citizens, in a penetentiary, near you. To give you an idea of how we rank, Germany has 94 per 100k and Canada has 107 per 100k, in comparison”.
It is easy to see why we have so many and they so few - easy gun laws. It was so nice to read an earlier posted link about gangs using AK-47 rifles. The future is grim indeed.
To end the silly madness of AK47 gang members power, do what they did in the 1930’s and end prohabition. What happened to the Tommy machine gun weilding gang members power after prohabition was lifted in the 1930’s?
WAman:
Bingo.
But the cow’s out of the barn, (any guesses how many guns there are in our country?) and we alone, in the world, will have to deal with the dual problems of financial upheaval and an armed populace used to a country that “always” bailed them out when they failed, but after Katrina, it’s obvious that the government gave us a preview of how little they care for us, circa 2005.
I was in el lay during the Rodney King riots and it was shocking to see the police department just let a small segment of the population loot and destroy much of South Central L.A.~
Imagine everybody being in the same boat, desperation-wise, not just the black population?
Get out of the big cities while there is still time.
If you where in el lay during the riots you would know that the riots where not just in south central.It spread over 4 days outwards to orange cty,the san fernando valley etc.I saw looters broken down on 14 frwy with couches on the back of old trucks taking their stolen booty outa town.The northridge mall was broken into.I remember driving down from Palmdale and seeing the smoke rising from downtown.Let’s just say i had a loaded 30-06 in the trunk of my car for a few weeks.
I was living in Woodland Hills at the time and took a hike up in Topanga and still have quite the mental picture, of a city on fire…
regarding prisons in the country. you might want to read this very very long article, in fact a book, about its politics. title is, “… the aristocracy of prison profits”.
http://dunwalke.com/introduction.htm
Again, arguing about guns is a red herring. Bad people do bad things, regardless of the weapons used. Would you rather be hacked to death by machetes as in Africa or Indonesia??
The R&D for most drugs are paid for by State/Federal governments. Most of the cost by the drug manufacturer is for those slick tv ads and lobbyist in DC to get a prescription drug bill passed.
For example, the drug AZT was first developed at Wayne State University School of Medicine in 1964, under a US National Institutes of Health (NIH) grant.
In 1987 GlaxoSmithKline remarketed it to Aids patients and charged $1000/month for AZT when they first marketed it.
How do Americans pay for progress? If progress is measured in new drugs to combat disease, we pay in two basic ways. First, as taxpayers, we support research directly through the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and through federal tax deductions of 39 percent on the research and development (R&D) costs of the pharmaceutical industry. Then, as consumers, we also support R&D through high prices made possible by patents, the government-granted monopolies that reward innovation. While many have called this multifaceted R&D apparatus the best in the world, it also has become increasingly expensive for American families.
http://www.aarp.org/bulletin/prescription/double_taxation.html
The U.S. patent system sticks American consumers and taxpayers with eye-popping bills even as it lets foreign countries shirk their share of research costs by simply outlawing high drug prices…the opportunity to stick foreign consumers with their fair share of the global bill for drug development. Right now, the U.S. strategy for getting foreign countries to bear a proportional share of drug research costs is to politely ask governments to allow unregulated monopoly prices like we have here in the U.S. The foreign response, typically, is to slap price controls on the drugs, ensuring their people get the drugs cheap.
http://www.forbes.com/2006/04/15/drug-patents-prizes_cx_sw_06slate_0418drugpatents_3.html
–
Auntie,
It is the Fraudulent Reserve and it strictly serves the interests of the bankers and financiers, aka Bankrupters and Fraudsters of New York City (BFNYC). The battle against the bankers is as old as the “republic.”
Andrew Jackson’s battle against the bankers is the most well known one: “The bankers want to kill me but before that I will kill the Bank (The Second Bank of the United States).” And he did. Progressively, bankers became too powerful and no one could take them on including the Federal govt. And there we are. BFNYC’s control of the lives of American People is greater than that of any emperor! They control the govt. and people’s money!!
Forms of the human institutions change, but the essence remains the same.
Jas
You are right that is always the battle but there still is right and wrong. Even if you are on the losing side it is how you play the game. The US Constitution still is the greatest document in the world, and offer the most protections to everyone. It will be very easy for this country to turn into another Yugoslavia if things go badly. We cannot let it happen. (Sounds like time for the powers to be to bring in the external bogeyman I cannot sleep at night with the fears that Iran will decide to invade us)
“Recalled” sounds like they were playing the live auction against Ebay. That was some weird auction with….cheerleaders? Sounds like a Fellini movie……
Yup High School Chearleaders, 2 of them and a DJ! I guess it was to try and get the croud pumped up. There were few real bidders in the room and for all I know they may have been “shills”. There were also about five Guys running through the crowd looking for bids and shouting like one sees at the Barrett Jackson Auto Auctions on Late Night Speed Channel! Reminded me of Carney Barkers - In NFL referee Uniforms of all things!
god I hope someone gets a video of one of these!
There was one guy there with a video camera, Perhaps a fan of this Blog?
Captain john,
Did NAR have a banner hung that said:
“Never a BETTER time to buy a house”?
While you renters and me (an ‘owner’, but with a very low mortgage in Houston), enjoy our Sunday morning brunch on the veranda, it looks like the Loan Officers of this country of ours have another joy to keep themselves awake at night…
http://forum.brokeroutpost.com/loans/forum/2/89406.htm
” What if your good borrower decided to stage a coup?
It is happening in this kind of housing slump when good
borrowers cashed out 100% or even 125% and defaulted on
the first payment. He did that because he sees the value
declining and he thought that he could use somebody else
to buy his next home! Why stay upside down and pay the
high mortgage when you alredy got all the cash you needed?”
That’s just classic.
In some cases, for some people, the temptation is just to great to take the money and run…especially if you don’t have any skin in the game (no money down, etc.). Buyers of Mortgage Backed Securities…are you listening?
there was a post in this blog from a loan officer or fraud investigator about owners who are underwater with their current residence. what they would do is buy another bigger/better house for less, move to the new one and default on the former. the banks were powerless to go after them.
Wow, very interesting. I would think other than in places like LA, SF or maybe NY, there wouldn’t be enough of that for it to be a problem but those three places are in a league of their own.
I disagree. If you look at San Francisco (not the greater Bay Area) and New York, what has gone on there has been very different than what’s been going on in LA. A big part of why there are high prices and high demand for those cities is they both have significant geographic constraints that LA does not.
They really are not making any more land in Manhattan, and except for Central Park, there’s not a square yard of undeveloped land on that island. Plus, in NY, you have a high % of co-op buildings (virtually unknown outside NYC, but basically, you’re buying part ownership of the building and its corporate entity, not just an apartment). Co-op boards are well-known to have more stringent demands than condos before they’ll approve a sale in the building. In the really high-end buildings, requiring as much as 50% cash down is not unusual. Someone trying to waltz in with 100% no-doc financing would never pass the board approval process.
In San Francisco, you have a smaller, also geographically-challenged, high-demand city that’s virtually 100% build out and has huge piles of local red tape in place to discourage condo conversions. I’ll concede that there’s probably a little more funny money financing going on here than in NY, but there’s also 35-year-old Google multi-millionaires dumping money all over the place.
Didja miss what the govenor did in Chicago? Is this what will happen to any reform laws anywhere, esp Az? Also, does anyone know, do furniture sales companys sell thier contracts like MBS? How can furniture sellers make money when there are no payments until 2010?
CHICAGO — Gov. Rod Blagojevich has suspended a program designed to stop predatory lenders in the Chicago area, saying it was hurting the communities it was supposed to help.
Blagojevich discontinued the five-month-old Illinois Predatory Lending Database Pilot Program, which established rules for potential property buyers living in 10 ZIP codes on Chicago’s west and southwest sides.
The program required residents who had low credit scores or met other criteria to receive financial advice before completing a mortgage application. In addition, the state monitored loan transactions within the ZIP codes.
http://www.qctimes.com/articles/2007/01/21/news/state/doc45b3084fe7ff2727461678.txt
[quote] Also, does anyone know, do furniture sales companys sell thier contracts like MBS? How can furniture sellers make money when there are no payments until 2010?[/quote]
I have wondered the same thing, especially since if you don’t pay and they repossess all they will get is almost worthless used furniture.
I am also wondering if this will be another small pebble on the Real Estate land slide since people start getting their ARM’s reset and then get hit with payments on the furniture they bought 3 years before when they bought their new house.
The problem with the Chicago program is that poor people(defined by not having the money to buy what they want) can’t afford a house especially in bubble areas so stopping “predatory lenders” stops them from even appearing as if they can afford a house. If they stop predatory lenders then the poor don’t buy a house, if they don’t stop it then the poor will live in a house for a couple of years and then go into foreclosure. The problem with people who don’t have the money to buy what they want is that no matter how you slice it they don’t have the money to buy what they want.
“The problem with people who don’t have the money to buy what they want is that no matter how you slice it they don’t have the money to buy what they want.” So in steps Socialism or Communism with the handout, which is exactly what keeps the housing bubble pyramid going, new buyers at the bottom. Does this mean the housing buubble is a Socialist/Commie plot to destroy the country?
“and then get hit with payments on the furniture they bought 3 years before when they bought their new house.” This is why my newspaper want ads have many sets of used furniture for sale, “just like new” and the asking prices are very high, as if a payoff amount. No plunge protection team for the furniture sellers.
New postings now up on Madison Wisconsin bubble blog:
http://madisonhousingbubble.blogspot.com/
Brenda Boyce is frustrated. Her tax bill assumes her house is worth thousands of dollars more than anybody seems willing to pay.
You can challenge your tax assessment, but then you have to admit its true value. The tax assessor in my couunty told me a lot of people won’t contest their valuation for that very reason.
And the local government laughs all the way to the bank.
Running your personal finances with a clear-head, willing to accept the ugly truth, is very difficult. Running your personal finances with your head up your a$$ becomes even more difficult. Admit that the house isn’t worth your wishing price, tell the government to lower the assessment, and pay less taxes. Oh, there’s that reality thing again. Just keep overpaying the local government and stick your head back in your rectum. That’s where most people are most comfortable.
I was doing errands yesterday and turned on the local talks. Bob Brinker was blathering on very smuggly about how there was no bubble, that median house prices had barely changed and how the economy would continue on like gangbusters.
His tone was very nasty and he usually doesn’t get that combative.
He then had on a Federal Reserve expert who claimed the fed would not save the dollar (he implied the fed would ease interest rates this year) and that the only thing the fed is interested in doing is making sure the dollar didn’t crash suddenly.
Does Bob Brinker even read the opposing side of arguments. The evidence of trouble in the housing market presented on this blog alone is overwhelming and a fool would not worry about what’s happening. Not only to FBs but to the economy as a whole.
He didn’t even address affordability or the massive spike in foreclosures.
CNBC had a very bearish report on Friday night however that challenged the NAR spin on the numbers.
Happy Sunday all.
Too bad nobody can ever get thru to ask him about his call to buy the QQQQ in 2000 at 50+. Going on 7 years now where you were never up on that position.
My buddy listens to Brinker, but does not praise him as much as he used to. My buddy has Florida RE and is aware of the depressed sales there. Bob Brinker is a cult leader and ignores fundamental economic indicators, including the rapidly aging populations of developed countries and the effects on real estate and equities. It’s best to do your own research on the fundamentals. What will the boomers spend their money on next? Health care? Perhaps health care industry, preventive medicine, older age fitness and such will be a growth industries and the only growth industries in the next 20 years. But typically governments make war to get themselves out of depressions, so defense industry may be a good thing to invest in as well.
“Bob Brinker was blathering on very smuggly about how there was no bubble,…”
Bob Brinker = dumb bunny
http://www.pilkey.com/bookview.php?id=23
I’ve heard him say similar things about housing over the past year (especially they are not building any more land on the coast) but you can’t send him email and never been able to get a call through. For some reason he has his head totally buried in the sand on this one.I’m really looking to see if and when he calls a market downturn and what he attributes it to and if he will own up to the part housing played. If he, like MSM, doesn’t like the term ‘housing bubble’ because they didn’t coin it, then why doesn’t he liken it to ‘mania’ since he understands what happened in Holland with tulips?
The problem with Bob’s comments were that even though the housing median price was only down a bit nationally, he missed the big story.
As far as I know, the NATIONAL median has never been down…ever! Even during the bust of late 80’s, early 90’s. So if it wasn’t down nationally, even during that big correction, and now it is actually negative for the first time ever, what does that tell you?
(Could someone else confirm that this is the first time that the national median has been down?)
If they didn’t think it was wrong before, why are they talking about it now? Just mentioning that itself on a website could be used against them, wouldn’t you think?
A massive condo project up in God’s country:
Saddleback carving new terrain
A new owner’s ambitious plan to create a year-round resort hinges on attracting enough condo buyers.
By TUX TURKEL, Staff Writer
Sunday, January 28, 2007
SANDY RIVER PLANTATION - Views sell vacation homes. And when a visitor enters one of the new units at the Rock Pond II condominiums here and takes in the unbroken view of forest, mountains and lakes out to the horizon, well, that’s a moment real estate brokers live for.
But is stunning scenery enough to kickstart a $150 million, 10-year expansion that could turn the Saddleback ski area into a four-season, destination resort? Can it help draw enough visitors to support a mountain village of up to 900 housing units, including an inn, hotel, snow-tubing park, tennis and swimming?
These are key questions waiting to be answered this year, as marketing ramps up to promote a new owner’s vision of Saddleback. A consultant hired by the ski area has mailed 30,000 post cards to potential condo buyers, offering them discounted meals, lodging and ski tickets - if they tour a model unit and spend some time in the Rangeley Lakes area.
At 4,116 feet, Saddleback Mountain is an awesome slope that offers some of Maine’s best alpine skiing. And with $40 lift tickets and $25 specials, the prices are hard to beat.
Bargain lift tickets are helping to pump up skier visits. Unfortunately, they don’t cover the cost of running the ski operation and turning a profit. For Saddleback to grow, it has to sell enough condos to underwrite the next phases of development.
“The money is in real estate,” said Ronald Roberts, president of Sage Marketing Group in Burlington, Vt. “You’re not going to make a lot of money selling lift tickets.”
Selling condos in a soft housing market is tough, but Roberts is not discouraged. The Rangeley Lakes, he said, has a wild charm that can appeal to well-off baby boomers who live north of Boston and are looking for solitude. Roberts just needs to convince people to drive to Saddleback, which is 125 miles northwest of Portland, and experience the surrounding area.
“We’re going to push down on the marketing pedal hard enough to get buyers for the units we have in the ground,” he said.
AFTER THE SNOW MELTS
Saddleback’s challenge is shared by other destination ski areas, including Sugarloaf and Sunday River.
Skier visits are growing only slightly across the country. In New England, they’re essentially flat; Maine is stuck at roughly 1.2 million a year. Partly to blame is the region’s aging population and the preference among many youngsters to chill in front of video screens, rather than on a chair lift.
But retirement-minded baby boomers with enough cash to handle a vacation home offer hope to the industry. Maybe they’ll take a few runs, but their kids and grandkids are the next generation of skiers and snowboarders. In the meantime, everyone will buy food and drinks in the lodge.
But the ski season is short, so developers need to give people something to do after the snow melts. That helps support the ski area infrastructure and maintain a year-round work force.
Here at Saddleback, the old base lodge has been transformed into a spacious post-and-beam gathering place. Weddings were held there last summer, and two-thirds of the dates are already booked for this year.
Over time, Saddleback hopes to pull half its revenue from non-ski activities. That could increase employment, now at 125 in winter and 30 in summer. Big ideas are not new at Saddleback.
More than 20 years ago, a Massachusetts businessman bought the ski area with the intention of creating an “Aspen of the East.” Donald Breen was able to build some condos and upgrade the ski operation, but not much else.
The Appalachian Trail runs along Saddleback Mountain’s 3.5-mile summit, and Breen’s plan to extend ski area development across the hiking corridor caught the attention of environmental groups and the National Park Service. The battle that followed put all development on hold by 1995. The parties finally reached a settlement in 2000, but the project never recovered.
In 2003, Breen sold the ski area and roughly 8,000 acres to Bill Berry and his family, for $7.5 million. Berry is a retired geology professor at the University of Maine at Farmington and a longtime skier and condo owner at Saddleback. He and his seven children were able to swing the deal, with a little bank financing.
SELLING THE CONCEPT
With the Appalachian Trail issue settled, the Berrys hope to avoid further controversy by limiting development in sensitive places. More than half of the property will be untouched by ski trails or construction.
Saddleback is in the unorganized territories, so development is controlled by Maine’s Land Use Regulation Commission. The family won approval three years ago for some primary projects, including the lodge, condos, new lifts and better snowmaking. That work alone cost $25 million.
Now the agency is reviewing the expansion, which includes dozens of projects over 10 years.
Saddleback is in a special planned development district that recognizes its dependence on a natural resource in this case, the mountain. Marcia Spencer-Famous, a senior planner at LURC, said the staff recently received most of the application’s background material. She’s preparing to send the request out for other agencies and interested parties, including the National Park Service, to review. It’s hard to predict when the staff will finish its job, what it will recommend to LURC’s commission, and how the commission will act. It’s also unclear if new opposition will surface.
Uncertainty is never welcomed by developers. Because even when large-scale projects are approved, there’s always a risk that planners could impose conditions that hurt the economics of the venture. So aside from marketing a vision to buyers, Saddleback has to sell its concept to conservation-minded regulators.
John Cannizzaro was looking at the bright side last week, as he gave a tour to explain how the ski area would evolve under the 10-year plan.
Saddleback’s planning and development manager, Cannizzaro showed where timeshare condos are scheduled to go up, a strategy to attract mid-week skiers to the mountain. Off the access road, workers were finishing a model unit for the South Branch condominium project, 24 one-and-two bedroom units that will appeal to renters. The asking price starts at $149,000.
Higher on a ridge, more contractors were framing up a unit for a new phase of the Rock Pond condos. These models have three bedrooms and sweeping views. Earlier units weren’t selling last year at $329,000, so the current asking price is $295,500. Nearby, four house lots are under contract.
Farther down the mountain, where a moose was crossing the access road, Cannizzaro pointed to the site of a new lodge, lift and ski trails. This will require LURC’s blessing, and sales of existing condo units.
“We need to roll the profits into the next expansion,” he said.
SKIER VISITS ON THE RISE
More homes will translate into more skier visits. Saddleback sorely needs that. Visits hit a low point of 16,000 just before Breen sold in 2002. Advertising and improved ski conditions brought visits up to 35,000 last year, and they continue to grow this winter.
It’s still modest, by comparison. Nearby Sugarloaf pulls in more than 300,000. Saddleback would like to see 180,000 skier visits a year within 10 years.
More visitors would be welcome news off the mountain. The Rangeley Lakes region does attract snowmobilers in winter, but remains largely a summer tourism destination. So Bob Wentworth, who owns the Rangeley IGA, really notices when skiers stream into his store at dusk to stock up for the evening. “That’s the only thing carrying me this winter,” he said.
The local business community is grateful for what the Berry family is doing at Saddleback, Wentworth said. Some people worried that the ski area might shut down, prior to the sale.
“It has really saved the town,” he said.
In the months ahead, Wentworth and the rest of the community will be watching to see if Saddleback is able to move to the next level.
The post cards sent to prospective buyers make this pitch: “There are few places left anywhere in America where you have the opportunity to become part of a new 4-season resort village - one that is surrounded by 8,000 acres of unspoiled mountain and forest wilderness.” The mass mailing went out less than 10 days ago. A couple dozen people responded right away.
Some will visit. And a real estate broker will take them into the Rock Pond condos, to see the view.
Staff writer Tux Turkel can be contacted at 791-6462 or tturkel@pressherald.com
http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/business/stories/070128saddleback.html
I have occasionally mentioned how similar Wall Street bulls hoping for the Fed to lower interest rates are to cargo cultists. It occurs to me there is something similar going on with respect to home sellers who are unwilling to lower their wishing prices to levels where the homes ever have a chance of selling. I recently noticed one zip code in SD (Ranch Santa Fe / 92067) where many, many homes have been on the market for over a year now. It is very expensive to keep $3m+ homes on the market when prices are bleeding $25K/day or so in market value, yet these people keep on wishin’ and fishin’ for nonexistent buyers.
I don’t think economists have any great explanations for sellers who are in such denial that they are willing to continually bleed in hopes of attracting a buyer at 2005 prices (but please jump in and correct me if I am wrong). This is one for the anthropologists to explain.
Wikipedia entry on cargo cults:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_cult
I don’t get how you use cargo cult though.
The Melanesians’ hopes for cargo drops are analogous to a seller of an overpriced home waiting expectantly for a buyer to drop a lottery-sized lump sum payment into his lap.
Rancho Santa Fe
“I don’t think economists have any great explanations for sellers who are in such denial that they are willing to continually bleed in hopes of attracting a buyer at 2005 prices”
GS, way too easy.
We are still in the “I’m not going to give my house away” phase. The REIC has been, for the most part, successful in their “Prices have corrected, in the spring we’ll be back to a more normal up market” campaign. Most people, even though they have seen price decreases, don’t think they will continue. Not to mention areas like LA, where prices still haven’t come down much if at all.
It’s still way too early in the game. There is still way too much “hope and wishfull thinking”. The fundamentals (lack of affordability, sub-prime loan standards tightening, the return of the risk premiums, media coverage of toxic loans, skyrocketing Notice Of Defaults (NODs), etc.) will drag the general public down kicking and screaming; the psychology won’t be easily changed.
Side note: when the psychology DOES change in the general public, that will be a sign of the true bottom. But then, a lot of bears will be so effected by the general malaise, that they will question if they should buy EVER.
The next big event is the Spring Selling Season inventory numbers (both % delta, and months-of-supply). If it goes as we think it will, it will be another nail in the psychological coffin. After that, we have the NODs turning into real foreclosures, and even higher NODs. After that, we have the pullback in consumer spending…etc. etc. etc.
The psychology is like dominos, and only the first few have fallen as of yet.
I’ve got to agree with this sentiment. My father, who I’ve been nagging about the housing bubble for almost two years, has just now started to see indicators that spell trouble–NODs in CA, declining sales year over year, but he just refuses to see the next connection that prices have to correct. He simply doesn’t want to believe it because it would impact him too much. He at least refi’d into a 7/23 ARM last year, so as long as he keeps his job the wife will have a place to live (almost empty nesters with ~3500 square feet). But at year 7 (2013) watch out! I anticipate they’ll be 50% underwater by then, unless we see some hyperinflation.
“…unless we see some hyperinflation.”
That won’t make real values increase, but it would add liquidity to a market which is currently starting to freeze up.
P.S. Hyperinflation would also stick it to creditors (rich folks who bought the MBS). Not sure that is really the Fed’s first priority…
“hope and wishful thinking” = cargo cult mentality
Souper Sunday open houses are for sissies…
———————————————————————————————-
Time out
Real estate market grinds to a halt on Super Bowl Sunday
By Emmet Pierce
STAFF WRITER
January 28, 2007
* Party hosts beware: Protect your property
Even without the Chargers on the scoreboard, Super Bowl Sunday traditionally is one of the slowest home-selling days of the year in San Diego County.
People with only a casual interest in the game, as well as die-hard fans, are expected to take part in the national television ritual on Feb. 4.
According to the National Football League, last year’s game had more than 141.4 million viewers. The 10 most-watched programs in TV history were Super Bowls, the NFL boasts on its Web site.
JACIE LANDEROS / Union-Tribune
In spite of that, North County real estate agent Margaret Hokkanen is planning to hold an open house in Carlsbad during the game. That’s because people who will skip the event to look for a house are truly serious buyers. They also are predominantly female.
“I have done an open house every Super Bowl Sunday for five years,” Hokkanen said. “It is all women, all women who come. But women are the deciders. The women get to pick where they live and the men get to watch TV. I put out lots of signs.”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070128/news_mz1h28super.html
Suitability in lending laws are in the bag…
———————————————————————————————-
NATION’S HOUSING KENNETH HARNEY
Proposed lending standards law would protect consumers
January 28, 2007
WASHINGTON – For the American mortgage market, it could be the hottest buzzword of the year: Suitability.
That’s because Congress has a new top legislator for mortgage matters, Rep. Barney Frank, who believes that “you shouldn’t lend (home buyers or refinancers) more than they can afford to pay back, and you don’t lend them more than their house is worth.”
Frank, a 14-term Massachusetts Democrat, is the new chairman of the House Financial Services Committee – the primary originator of banking and mortgage-related federal legislation. In an interview, he made it clear that a top priority this year will be enactment of a nationwide lending-standards law designed to protect consumers from deceptive, unfair and predatory mortgage practices.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070128/news_1h28harney.html
And how is this all that different than wHAt Illinois did and the Govenor halted? This is a setup for later, so a politician can rewrite the legislation to save the day, SocialisticallyCommunistic-like.
Fannie and Freddie portfolio problems are in regulatory gunsights…
————————————————————————————————-
Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae portfolios are under scrutiny
By James Tyson
BLOOMBERG NEWS
January 28, 2007
The $1.4 trillion combined mortgage portfolios of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest sources of money for U.S. home loans, “need to be right sized” to prevent financial market disruptions, the firms’ regulator said.
“We need to prevent the companies from growing out of control again,” said James Lockhart, the director of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. OFHEO last year imposed temporary limits on the two companies’ growth in response to disclosures of accounting errors at the firms totaling $11.3 billion.
Lockhart said he favors a proposal in the House of Representatives that, while not requiring cuts in the companies’ assets, creates a stronger regulator with power to impose such reductions. The companies’ holdings of their own mortgage-backed securities pose a particular concern to regulators, he said.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070128/news_1h28fannie.html
“Representative Barney Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat and chairman of the House panel that oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, has repeatedly said he opposes scaling back the companies’ mortgage assets.”
So Frankie wants to crack down on inappropriate lending, but also to give Fannie and Freddie the right to grow their portfolios to the breaking point? Doesn’t he realize the connection — you couldn’t have all these inappropriate loans without a highly-subsidized* secondary market making inappropriate purchases and repackaging them into MBS?
*The subsidy is implicit in the wide perception that Fannie and Freddie have government insurance protection of their portfolio risk, which gives them a market advantage to outbid private sector rivals (w/o taxpayer-provided insurance) and to grow their risky MBS portfolios without bound.
OT question.
I know there are some smart techies who read this board.
My desktop hard drive is toast. The reason I want to keep a DT at this point is because when my parents visit it is easier for them to manipulate.
I’ve tried reinstalling the OS with no luck and I can’t even get the drive to boot in safe mode now.
Can I simply buy another hard drive and install the operating system on it? I know I’ll have to do updates which will take a long time but I want to keep the DT for the ‘rents.
I know a little about computers but not a lot so forgive me if this is stupid question. I’m trying not to buy a completely new DT but will if installing a new hard drive is complicated. There is a very good deal at CompUSA right now so that may be the easiest solution.
Novasold,
I don’t know, But if this happened to me, I would go to Kinko’s (if there is one in your city) and get on internet there, and browse Microsoft’s help pages or troubleshooting. Or you may find the answer with one of the CompUSA employees if you are lucky. We have Fry’s Electronics out west, and their employees tend to ignore you. But there are small number there who are good.
Should be farily simple. You will need to get a full install OS disk, not an upgrade disk. You can get them on ebay but be sure they have the MS certificate or MS will not let you install the upgrades and patches.
I presume you have a dvd/cd drive, you may need to go into the bios to set it to boot on the CD drive to do the install.
You can get help for any problems online just google for some newsgroups or email lists.
Have you figured out whether the drive is physically damaged? If it’s physically ok, and you don’t care about losing the data, you may be able to boot from a Windows (or Linux) install CD and then format the hard drive and install from there.
Yes you can replace the hard drive, as long as the system isn’t broken. Dell, the world’s worst company when it comes to customer service, routinely sends someone out to replace the hard drives (rather than actually fix anything) when customers with in-home service contracts demand action. The Indian service reps on-line will put the customers through songs-and-dances to prove their hard drives are bad, then schedule appointments.
Have you simply tried hitting (repeatedly) F6, F, F8, F9m10,11, and so on a few seconds after turning the machine on? I’ve done this when I couldn’t get anything but a blue screen (and Dell insisted I needed a new hard drive), and I somehow got into dos mode, and found a list of choices, clicked one, and everything was fixed. I have no idea what I did, but what do you have to lose?
I meant to say “reps on the [telephone] line.
Bill, Steel, Jim and Icredulous:
I went through every help set available. From when I can ascertain the hard-drive is toast, meaning physically damaged. I tried rebooting by doing the F8 thing and using the full reinstall disk and that made things worse.
The computer is 5 years old so I’m thinking… time to give up and get a new DT. I have to go to CompUSA today anyway to return the docking station so I will ask there about a replacement hard-drive.
Don’t get me going about Dell help….
I have to say, although there is a great deal on Gateway with Vista Premium with a big hard-drive and all of the bells and whistles (same specs on Mac 1599, Dell about the same) for 799 (incl. 20 inch flat screen, keyboard, mouse, etc.) I beginning to lean heavily toward the Mac for security reasons.
Just now when I started my laptop (Dell) I got the blue CHKDSK screen and it seems to be starting with this computer as well. I don’t understand this as I have to have special security on any computer I log onto work with b/c of where I work. I don’t visit any questionable sites, have upgraded to IE7 and don’t open unknown emails except for realtytrac etc. or from known sources. I have noticed a lot more bs spam and I’m not sure if my computer is becoming infected if the spam comes into my outlook or what, but I’m VERY frustrated and b/c of this I’m really leaning towards Mac b/c of the security issues.
Ugh. Thanks all for your help.
BSOD - often caused by spikes or brownouts in electrical grids, too many houses drawing amps, faulty wiring, get a battery backup voltage regulator, no more Blue Screen of Death. Haha, the housing bubble is even contributing to the spread of BSOD.
“don’t open unknown emails except for realtytrac etc.”
That’s your problem, right there. The Realtors are after you.
For $799 you can have a new machine with a large monitor and Vista (okay for home usage at this point but not if this was a business PC). You don’t have to worry about swapping out a hard drive, reloading an OS and possibly messing with drivers. If the new computer is in your budget then go ahead and do it. You will probably be upgrading in a year any way.
Those extra emails you are getting could be from the Russian mob. They are sending out SPAM from 70,000 zombie computers. The emails generally deal with penny stocks or penis enhancements (not making it up). Their SPAM programs are now so sophisticated that most home SPAM programs can not stop them. Just delete the emails. I would recommend not getting involved in the pump-and-dump schemes the emails are pushing.
Or just get Google Mail (gmail). I’ve had it for over a year and not one piece of spam in all that time. Nice .. and I love the price (free!). No, I don’t work for them.
Thank you all so much.
You guys are great.
Decided on a new computer.
I’m also getting rid of my yahoo mail address. I have a gmail as well and I am sick of the spam (even though I just delete them) it clutters up my stinking Outlook.
I talked to a very helpful techie at CompUSA and he said replacing the hard-drive was doable but that I would have to buy one on the internet b/c the smallest they sold was 120 gig and that when you try and install a bigger drive than the one you had in there, the machine might not recognize the entire drive and create overall problems with installation. He also mentioned the upgrade factor.
Thanks Chuchura that sounds cool but even though the DT is primarily for the folks, when I have to do any heavy editing I stick to the DT as well. I’m also going back to get some additional education this year which will require heavy editing work so it’s time to bite the bullet.
Now I have to decide on Mac or the CompUSA 799 deal. The only thing making me think Mac is the security issue. I like their cool toys but I’m told the new Windows Media Center which comes with this system, is just as cool.
Thank you all again. I appreciate your advice very much.
Novasold
you can simply replace the hard disk with a new one and reinstall the os. unless you know what you are doing i would not advice you to do it yourself. updates for xp does not take that long, unless you connect using a phone modem. 5 year old computer should still be fine with a 120gb hard drive. i would surmise this is about 800mhz speed. be wary about the 32gb hard disk limit if you have those 400mhz pc. if however you decided to get a new computer, i would suggest getting a laptop for about 600-700. they are available all the time from office depot, staples, circuit city, etc. just get an separate 19 inch lcd monitor if you want a bigger screen. here is one that is good enough for about $100 plus shipping (http://www.pcconnection.com/ProductDetail?Sku=6732798) kb and mouse there is wireless ms desktop 3000 one in office deport for about 15 after rebate as well. good luck. oh, if you buy a laptop, only pick from the following manufacturers, hp/compaq, toshiba, ibm/lenovo.
Jose:
Thanks so much. That’s very helpful. I need to get a DT for the ‘rents. They have an easier time manipulating it.
Thanks so much for taking the time to respond.
What do your parents do when they use your desktop? If it’s just a little web browsing/email/etc, you might try Knoppix.
Knoppix is a Linux distro that runs completely off a CD. You download it (it’s free), burn the CD, pop the CD in your PC and boot from it. Hey, presto..you’re running. No install required.
http://www.knoppix.org/
Unless you have a backup restore program on a disc somewhere,when you replace the hard drive you will have to a new windows xp program.I believe they are 250$ approx.Just buy a new computer,i bought my compac for 330 $ and used my old monitor.Hard drives are about 80$ so it is cheaper just to buy a new computer.
Unless you have a backup restore program on a disc somewhere,when you replace the hard drive you will have to a new windows xp program.
That’s not true. If you still have your Windows XP installation CD and the authorization key, you can certainly use that on a new hard drive. I’ve done it several times in the past and have had no problem with reactivation. Even if the automatic activation doesn’t work, you can contact Microsoft and tell them you are installing on a replacement hard drive and they’ll give you a manual activation code. There is absolutely no need to buy another copy of Windows XP if you already have one.
Pensacola, Florida
from craigslist:
$125000 Open House This Weekend Only Must Sell
House Built in 2004, 3/2, 1267sf. 1 Car Garage. House for sale at this price only this weekend 125K it will go up after today. Open House is from 9-5 It only needs minor paint touch up and carpet cleaning, everything else is in excellent Cond. Off Pine Forest Rd close to Nine Mile Rd. Approx 1.5 from I-10. 352-xxx-xxxx Chris
Better hurry! It goes up after this weekend!
I had the occasion to change planes in Phoenix this Saturday. A few things struck me as we flew in/out.
1) The reason “they aren’t making any more land” is because “they” already made plenty enough to last a very long time!
2) There were a large number of housing tracts where the building pads had already been prepared, but no houses were under construction. Each one appeared to be cabable of accomodating several hundred houses. Many were located right next to a tract of completed houses. That can’t be good for property values.
3) I was surprixed at how big Phoenix is. I thought most cities developed around “something”, a trade route like a river or railroad, a source of a natural resource, some reason for people to be there. Why are all these people in Phoenix, and what do they do?
I’m a software engineer. I earn $83 per hour. In Phoenix. Phoenix has General Dynamics, Honeywell, Boeing, Intel, Motorola, Lockheed, Orbital Sciences, Spectrum Astro - all high tech, chock full of engineers and technicians. Phoenix has hospitals, research clinics (Mayo Clinic), Arizona State University. For fun, Phoenix has some of the best golf courses. The Phoenix Open is in February. Of course, Phoenix is big in spring training for baseball. Has several professional sports teams. Phoenicians do a lot.
Most of what you list sounds like the “result”, not the “cause”.
I always thought the baseball teams held their spring training there because of the winter weather, and that some people retired or had winter homes there for the same reason.
I would think that the skilled labor pool followed the businesses, not the other way around. How did those businesses come to locate facilities there? Low land aquisition costs? Low operational costs? What got it all started?
Good question. I heard once when I lived in Tucson that the Rillito River used to run full all the time. Now it’s just a wide wash and only runs full in a heavy rain during the summer monsoon. Climate brought a lot of people to Tucson. Tucson’s San Xavier mission had crops. As for Phoenix, I am not sure what the selling point was. I suspect it was a railroad hub and positioned right for access to California. I read that the men in the 1800s in Phoenix would send their wives and Children to the high cool mountains in the summer while staying in Phoenix, working. There were a lot of bordellos to help them on lonely nights. Now Phoenix is the fifth largest city. San Antonio is number 6 (yes, Wickipedia shows San Antonio edged out San Diego, now 7th). Phoenix has the 7th busiest airport.
Finally to address your last paragraph, I think you are right that the skilled labor pool followed the businesses to Phoenix. I’m a native Californian and moved to Arizona in 1996. There is enough industry in my area competing for engineers for right now that the hourly rates for contract work is good. The small company I work for cannot find people for the right skills to become direct hires, so they swallow the bitter pill and hire us high paid “soldiers of fortune.” I have no loyalty to where I live. I only go for the best hourly rate, given the economic climate for my industry. My field was tight in Phoenix in 2002, so I worked on the east coast for a stint and got good pay. But I consider Arizona my home because I like the fact that it’s less of a nanny state than California. It feels good to be a responsible gun owner here in AZ. The only state I like more for now is Nevada, despite some wacko lib politicians, it’s more libertarian than AZ. But lots of nanny state people moved to NV, so they will probably push for more entitlement programs and other programs to take money from productive people.
My curiosity finally got to me so I did some research.
It looks like it was the Salt River that got things started. The city was first “settled” by local Indians in 300 BC when they dug some irrigation canals that allowed them to farm. It continued to grow as an agricultural center and got a big boost in 1902 when Roosevelt signed the Reclamation Act which kicked off the dam building spree in the West. The Roosevelt Dam was the first completed project and that greatly increased the supply of water and electricity for the area. The next big kick came during WW2 when 3 large air fields were built. That brought in a lot of people, both initially because of the bases, and later when they returned after completing military service. The area made the transition into manufacturing based on the availability of that workforce. I couldn’t find anything on how the transition to high tech was accomplished. My guess is that once the manufacturing plants were established it wasn’t too big a leap for companies to establish R&D activities there and as the skill and knowledge of the work force increased it just snowballed from there.
Hey, Bill in Phoenix, you make it sound like Phoenix is one “hot” town. And how HOT did it get this summer? 115! 116! 117!. I know, it’s a dry heat.
HOT did it get this summer? 115! 116! 117!
Luxury! 122 In Rancho Mirage (next to Palm Springs) last year.
David,
It’s “hot” for me so far. The next town that pays me more than $83 per hour with lots of overtime and per diem will take the place of Phoenix of being “hot.” You dig?
i know a lot of software engineers here in san diego who get at least a hundred per hour. contractual employees, though. for regular employees, be happy with 60 per hour plus all the benefits.
I’m billing $110/hour right now in OC, and from what I understand that might be on the low side. $100/day for lodging expenses helps sweeten the deal, though. Since it’s the winter season, that is more than enough to pay for a furnished beach house in Newport Beach. (Or stay in a shitty hotel if that’s your preference.)
Assuming one has to pay for one’s own housing, I would think that $83/hour in Phoenix is a better deal given the differences in housing costs and taxes.
The rate matters, but only insofar as the hours are there, too. Lots of high-rate contractors don’t work steady.
That expense per-diem can be mighty sweet, though!
No surprise here, but E-Bay is full of scams…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,176-2570050,00.html
Hey if any of the homebuilders need a nice housing bubble domain name I have 5 different though all to the point domain names for sale on Ebay. Kind of catchy domains for the right company or business - Housing Bubble! They came very close in selling last week!
I would hang onto these. The prices will only go up!
yeah– they are not making any new domain names!
I posted in another thread the newest from MI, and spike66 suggested I post in today’s bitsbucket about it…
We’re really hurting here in MI, but the newest indicates clearly that it’s not just because of one industry, and the coasts aren’t immune either…
Here in Ann Arbor in the past week or so we experienced Pfizer *closing* a huge facility that they just spent millions upgrading, cutting 2500 jobs (plus at least a couple thousand extra in direct temporary and contract work for the facility, and who knows how many in local related ones), *plus* possibly a bunch (1000) of jobs might get lost as Citigroup buys local ABN-Amro Mortgage Processing group…
Things are bad enough here that I saw on a local realtor’s blog someone ask “if I just bought a house but haven’t closed yet should I consider getting out and abandoning my deposit money?” and the answer being, well, if you just bought say a nice-but-unspecial house for 300K, and your deposit was say 10K, you should seriously consider it since you just lost at least that this week in value…whoa!
and see what next spring brings before you consider continuing your househunt. whoa.
This area is seriously hurting. Google seems to be coming, so they claim, with 1000 crappy adwords jobs, hardly replacing the good jobs at pfizer.
And what bodes menacing for *everyone*, not just poor beleaguered MI, is that one of the bits of rhetoric the pfizer chief used in his statements was that this cutting would allow them to consider increasing “outsourcing” of their safety and metabolism trials…that was one of the big activities done here at the local facility.
I saw a pharma site talking about this…how they can have much cheaper safety and metabolism trials in india, which they do already in smaller part, and they can store and manage data in china or wherever, eastern europe for trials and data too.
Outsourcing of jobs we’d not previously considered outsourceable is going to take off I think, and it will suck for people here. Engineers, chemists, biologists…google india shouldn’t be too far off either.
I like to close postings/emails/etc with “cheers”, but I’m feeling little to be cheery about here…
People are really depressed now. Ann Arbor was the one part of the SE Michigan area that thought itself immune, even though the RE picture here has been bad enough (though still with not-yet-enough reductions in price, the “stare-down” still in place mostly) for local media to consider that maybe we aren’t completely unaffected.
Now there’s no place to hide around here…
oops…sorry spike 66…I didn’t notice your post above before I did this one!
I’ll try a “cheers” now…cheers all…
The “INVISIBLE things …”
This was big on yesterdays post and folks missed some important facts.
1. If you make extra payments on your mortgage each month you can easily pay it off in 20 years.
2. The mortgage interest is a tax deduction and you will pay less taxes because of this. This has an advantage over renting.
3. After the mortgage is paid off - no more payments
4. If you never buy a house you will go to your death bed paying rent and in most cases the rent payment will have risen greatly over 30 years.
5. My first house was bought for $84,000 (1983) in Chester county PA. Even if prices fall back to 2000 prices that house would still sell for over 200k.
6. If I still owned that house to day it would have been paid off and I would have no payments to make except for utility payments as I own my car.
I don’t think that now is the time to buy however - wait until prices drop to 2002 or 2003 levels.
Good points, WAman. Some here seem to think that home buying is some sort of scam cooked up by the building and banking industries. While this is a uniquely bad time to buy, a home is generally a good investment as long as you’re smart about it, study the market and don’t overextend yourself.
I bought a home in 1992 for $88K at 8.625 for 30. Refied in 99 at 6.0 for 15. The house is easily worth over $225, even post bubble-popping. Sadly, I got divorced in 2005 and now the house belongs to my ex. Easy come, easy go.
For those of you thinking about buying in the future, what’s your plan? How long will you wait before dipping your toe in the water?
a first home is historically NOT a good investment, it is just a relatively safe place to park your money. Read Shiller’s books, historically home prices appreciate just 0.5-1% more than inflation - certainly not enough to cover taxes, upkeep, insurance etc.
That the last 5-10 years in the US (or last 15-20 years in my country) were different should be a big warning. It may be a uniquely bad time to buy a home for many years to come.
From this morning’s LA Times Opinion Section:
Bring on the housing slump
From the article:
“FOR THE LAST five years, speculators, big developers and homeowners have gorged on Los Angeles real estate. The huge run-up in prices — more than 135% from 2001 to 2006 — has greatly increased the spending power of property owners. Yet there has been a worrisome consequence: Working and middle-class families are moving out — and failing to move in — because they cannot afford a house here. Long term, that’s not good for the local economy. As perverse as it sounds, what L.A. needs now is a real estate bust.”
I have to call “first” on the “no-pay mortgage”, which I predicted in 2004. See http://www.321gold.com/editorials/heller/heller030104.html
I then extended this “innovation” by adding the “Inimitable Notional Security Advancing New Equity (INSANE)” mortgage plan, in this article:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/heller/heller030804.html
Sadly, I never wrote the final installment. I guess we all know how it turns out, though.
Can you believe this? E-begging is really on the rise.
http://sandiego.craigslist.org/wan/269664799.html
Ever visit prosper.com ? A lot of what takes place there IMO borders on begging.
In case it gets flagged down, here’s the text of that ad:
—
I’m the head of a family of six and recently (Jan 7) had my mangement position eliminated. I have started my own handyman/construction business to supplement the money that we’re missing (and to stay off of public assistance), but the gap is growing wider very quickly. This is not a solicitation for cash, I’m seriously looking for temporary help paying some of our bills while my business grows.
If you have it in your heart to help we would welcome checks made directly to our creditors like SDG&E, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, Toyota financial, etc.
This is a humbling position to be in and I question what it is that I’m suppose to learn from this experience. We are a responsible family with no one that drinks, smokes, or has any other expensive habits.
I would also welcome any additional work that you may have in the field of the above mentioned new business.
Please send an email if you are interested in helping.
Thank you for your consideration and understanding!
—
“Can you believe this? E-begging is really on the rise.”
After that 20/20 piece on it , last week, we’ll propbaly see an explosion in E-begging.
Sometimes art imitates life. For instance, my kids are watching a movie in the other room which could be a moniker for the bubble…
http://www.sonypictures.com/homevideo/monsterhouse/index.html
I have been following this board for a long time and love it and all of the insightful comments. I do have something to run up the flagpole and am wondering about your views.
My husband and I are in a fairly low price home we plan to stay in with a 30 year 5% mortgage. Generally we live well below our means and save a lot. We are considering throwing that out the window though for some fun — that is, a vacation property in CO. Although rental will offset some of the costs we know it won’t pay for itself. we look at the difference as an expensive entertainment budget item that will be a splurge for us. We know the price may come down a bit in the next couple years so we aren’t going to buy the first thing we see, but we look at this as something we plan to have for at least 30 years. (We are in our late 30s.) So although we may catch a falling knife, I am thinking that over the long haul we will be okay. Your thoughts?
The time for moderately well off people to pick up expensive things they otherwise couldn’t afford is right after a big economic bust. If you are lucky enough to still be in decent financial shape when the price gets low enough, go for it.
“So although we may catch a falling knife, I am thinking that over the long haul we will be okay. Your thoughts?”
Wait for at least three years to buy. Then you can use the vacation property as an investment instead of a money pit. In the meantime, whenever you feel the urge to go visit a vacation home, rent one in the area you are interested in buying after the market settles down.
Why do people buy homes they can’t afford?
One reason: Anchoring…
http://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Anchoring