January 31, 2007

“The Dump In The Market Put Us Behind The Eight Ball”

A housing report from the Arizona Republic. “Valley housing analyst RL Brown said Chandler will see more high-density housing as well as developers building on the smaller lots they ignored before. Construction of high-density housing has begun. Condos are being built downtown and at Fulton Ranch.”

“Not only are builders running out of space, but the glut of existing homes for sale has been dampening the market for new homes, said Hank Pluster, interim long-range planning manager.”

“In recent months, prices have been falling or staying flat, depending on the area of the city, according to Realty Studies and Bill Ryan, a broker in Chandler. ‘If you bought in mid- to the end of 2005, you probably have experienced a loss in value,’ he said.”

“As gasoline becomes more expensive, homes closer to the heart of the Valley have become more popular, as opposed to those in Queen Creek and especially Johnson Ranch east of there. ‘The farther out you go, the harder they have been hit,’ said Gina McKinley, a Chandler resident and real estate agent.”

The East Valley Tribune from Arizona. “Developers took out 2,275 building permits for homes in December, a 55 percent drop from the same period the year before, according to analyst RL Brown. New home sales also sagged last month, down 26.6 percent from December 2005.”

“‘2006 activity will cause the industry to pause and rerecognize that housing in this market area has to be affordable,’ Brown said.”

“The dramatic run-up in prices during last year’s housing frenzy was not sustainable, he said. Home sellers will need to price homes according to today’s market or withdraw their listings, Brown said. Builders must also be more realistic if they plan on staying in business, he said.”

“‘I think 2007 is the year that everybody needs to be very careful and watch,’ he said.”

The Reno Gazette Journal from Nevada. “The median price of an existing single-family home in Reno-Sparks fell again in the fourth quarter, continuing a trend of falling prices and sales throughout 2006.”

“During the fourth quarter, the median price fell to $314,250, down 11 percent from the same quarter in 2005 and down from $324,500 in the third quarter, according to the report by the Northern Nevada Regional MLS.”

“And the number of sales continued to show weakness, slumping to 929 during the last three months of 2006. That’s down 22 percent compared with the fourth quarter of 2005, according to the report.”

“Reno, which has the most expensive homes of the three areas, had a median price of $375,000 during the quarter, down 9 percent for the fourth quarter of 2005. Sales in Reno fell 25 percent to 489 during the quarter, according to the report.”

“Sparks’ median price dropped 10 percent to $295,000 on 267 sales, down 17 percent. The North Valleys’ median was $257,000, down 12 percent, while sales dropped 20 percent to 173 for the three months.”

“‘2007, we’ll see some further weakness in prices mainly because people are getting squeezed by the creative financing that they used to buy some of these houses,’ said Tom Cargill, economist at the University of Nevada, Reno. ‘Though we’re not near as bad as Las Vegas, there is still a speculative element here that has driven up prices.’”

The Wall Street Journal on Las Vegas. “As the number of borrowers falling behind on their mortgage payments climbs to the highest level in five years, the mortgage industry is trying new strategies to help bail them out. The rise in bad loans is leading to a pick up in so-called short sales. Sheldon Klain, a manager in Dallas, wound up saddled with loans on two homes last year and now is trying to arrange a short sale of one of them.”

“Mr. Klain got into trouble after he moved to Dallas from Las Vegas to take a new job. He bought a home in Dallas, thinking he had found a buyer willing to pay $475,000 for his Las Vegas home. The sale fell through at the last minute and Mr. Klain found himself stuck with two homes and behind on payments on the Las Vegas house.”

“Mr. Klain says his Las Vegas house is valued at $419,000, according to a recent bank appraisal, well below the $440,000 he owes on the property. ‘The dump in the market put us behind the eight ball,’ he says.”

“There can be downsides for borrowers to short sales. Under certain circumstances, the debt forgiven by the bank may be taxable to the borrower. What is more, convincing a lender to go along with a short sale can be difficult, and borrowers who have a mortgage and a home-equity loan may have to negotiate with two lenders or two departments of the same bank.”

“‘There are all sorts of log jams,’ says John Izzo, the agent handling the sale of Mr. Klain’s Las Vegas house. Mr. Izzo says he is currently working on 19 short sales, but figures just ‘one in five might be successful.’”




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88 Comments »

Comment by Chrisusc
2007-01-31 12:26:06

“Mr. Klain got into trouble after he moved to Dallas from Las Vegas to take a new job. He bought a home in Dallas, thinking he had found a buyer willing to pay $475,000 for his Las Vegas home. The sale fell through at the last minute and Mr. Klain found himself stuck with two homes and behind on payments on the Las Vegas house.”

There’s a smart fella. LMAO

Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-01-31 13:13:35

This guy might qualify for a short sale because :

(1)He got a job transfer (apparently wasn’t a speculator )
(2) He tried in good faith to sell his property and only purchased because he thought he had sold his house (however he should of made the new house purchase subject to the old house closing )
(3) Depending on how much money this guy has in the bank/assets will determine if he has money to bring to closing . It’s not as if this guy is without a job. Also it seem like he transferred money from the old house to the new house ,so can he come to the table with equity from the new house ?

Short sales are not designed to let people with assets off the hook .
The above is just my opinion of course based on how they use to view short sales in prior lending cycles. What they are doing these days with short sales …God knows .

Comment by Chrisusc
2007-01-31 13:22:34

I would tend to agree with you. He may not qualify for short sale, since he has assets. Further, if he has a HELOC and it was used for buying crap, then he probably will not be allowed off the hook.

 
Comment by albrt
2007-01-31 13:27:20

I have a feeling some of the MBS/CDO entities will be motivated to move quickly to close out these bad loans. Russ Winter had a good discussion a couple weeks ago that got into how the mortgage backed securities actually work. The security is actually issued by an independent trust and they are apparently designed to self-liquidate within a few years. The real downside is if the controlling entity can’t wind it up in a timely fashion, then the lowest tranches will have to fight it out with the issuer.

Comment by Chrisusc
2007-01-31 13:44:03

That’s when it will get ugly. Lots of finger pointing and lawsuits. Who is going to be left holding the bag and eating the eventual loss(es)?

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Comment by AZ_BubblePopper
2007-01-31 14:04:40

Originators going BK daily now. What would the recourse be?

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Comment by Chrisusc
2007-01-31 17:34:36

As far as originators go, there are some agreements in which they personally guarantee the buybacks. In addition, I could see an argument for “piercing the corporate veil” in cases of either gross negligence in fiduciary duty (from not properly underwriting) or outright fraud. So I don’t think going BK solves all of the issues from a financial standpoint the a principal(s) of a mortgage brokerage.

However, in my post, I was more referring to the secondary market and investors filing suit due to negligence in fiduciary duty (filing against the hedge funds, etc. who packaged the stuff).

 
Comment by Chrisusc
2007-01-31 17:35:40

forgive the grammar

 
 
 
 
Comment by roguevalleygirl
2007-01-31 14:57:25

>
>
> > Scottsdale Lofts - Quarterly Update January 2007
>
> Dear xxxxx>
> Things are really starting to pick up on the Osborn Commons project, known
> as “Ten Lofts” in the market. The following is a more detailed update and
> project timeline.
>
> CONSTRUCTION STATUS
> The construction process has progressed rapidly since the August 2006
> groundbreak. Despite the delayed start, over 2 months of the schedule has
> been compressed through some creative construction techniques. All of the
> parking basement is in along with the 1st floor podium. The upper floor
> framing is now being done off-site and will start to be installed on-site
> during the first week of February. If the current improved schedule
> continues, we anticipate that the first escrow closings can start at the
> very end of the year. The main driver for this is likely to be the
> completion of the amenities (pool, spa, club room and courtyard).
>
> SALES AND MARKETING
> The application for the final public report has been submitted, and this is
> an important step to allow formal sales contracts to be drawn up. Letters
> went out to the remaining 50+ reservation holders advising them of the
> pricing that will be used in the contracts. This is averaging a base price
> of $465/sf, which is set below the market price of $475-$485/sf to motivate
> reservation holders to go into contract now, nearly a year before they can
> close escrow. The sales team expects to see 70-80% of these reservation
> holders convert to contracts, leading to almost 40 unit sales. Most of these
> reservations are from local buyers. The sales team is anticipating an
> average sales rate of 3-4 units/month, meaning they expect to see the site
> virtually sold out before completion at year end. New marketing activities
> are now starting to ensure that the prospect list keeps on growing. The
> website, http://www.tenlofts.net, is being updated regularly with new construction
> pictures and other property information.
>
> THE SCOTTSDALE MARKET AND COMPETITION
> While the Ten Lofts project is being marketed heavily on a lifestyle theme,
> it is also the most affordable of the loft/tower projects in the Scottsdale
> area. There are currently 6 developments that are well into the construction
> phase, ranging in prices from $500-$750/sf, so pricing below $500/sf puts
> Ten Lofts into the price range of a wider number of people, both from the
> Phoenix Valley and beyond. "The Mark", on 68th Street and Indian
> School, is ahead of Ten Lofts in construction and is selling in the
> $500-535/sf range. Further up on Scottsdale Road, there is the large
> "Optima" project, where the final phase is selling in the
> $600-$700/sf range.
>
> The Phoenix Valley real estate market is making a strong entry into 2007.
> MLS listings are down 5,000 units in the last month, from 40,000 to 35,000
> and are continuing to drop as units are sold or withdrawn from the market.
> The sub-market of downtown Scottsdale is looking very good within the larger
> market and continues to be a big draw for new residents. For 2006, even
> though sales volume was down 40%, the sales prices were up 16%. As far as
> marketing goes, much of the marketing efforts done by the other development
> companies has helped draw attention to the Ten Lofts project.
> >
>
>
> I am one of twenty investers in this LLC. It sounded good three years ago when I invested. I expect to lose my entire $200,000 investment now.

Comment by SLO Bear
2007-01-31 15:27:59

Good Lord! I sold my McCormick Ranch condo in 2003 for $130/sqft which was the highest amount ever sold in our development - I felt like I was stealing.

Now there are condos on Osborne Rd (one block from the level 1 trauma center; think lots of sirens and helicoptors) for almost $500/sqft. I hope these come wit ha VIP pass to all of the strip clubs and porn shops that are only a few block south on Scottsdale Rd.

I will be amazed if this ever gets completed outside of a BK proceeding.

 
Comment by Mole Man
2007-01-31 16:50:43

The web site says “X” (TEN) WINE LOFTS is within walking distance of “over … 70 art gallery’s”. What’s with the Roman Numeral? What is a “WINE LOFT”? What do they consider walking distance? What is that apostrophe doing there? Ugh!!!

 
Comment by Chrisusc
2007-01-31 17:41:26

roguevalleygirl,

I don’t know who your financial advisers are, but you need to trade up because they aren’t giving you good advice (because three years ago anyone who knew r.e. knew that those prices were not sustainable in AZ, nor much elsewhere). My CPA firm is in Scottsdale, email me if you want some good future advice. Take care.

 
Comment by Bill in Phoenix
2007-02-01 06:51:30

In a few years prices will pop and some of the very same lofts will be selling for $200 per square feet.

 
 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2007-01-31 12:27:03
Comment by CA Guy
2007-01-31 12:42:39

Awesome! Another one bites the dust. The fact that the sub-prime industry exploded onto the scene so quickly still amazes me. Therefore, I guess I should not be surprised that they are imploding just as quickly. Yee-haw!

 
Comment by Bubbleviewer
2007-01-31 12:48:06

If you follow that link and scroll down to the graph on Japan land prices, you will see what we may have to look forward to.

Comment by GetStucco
2007-01-31 12:51:30

Did Japanese housing rely on exotic lending practices in the 1980s? (I know they went to intergenerational mortgages in an attempt to cope with unaffordability.)

Comment by ft lauderdale
2007-01-31 14:17:04

Oh, I can just imagine taking care of my mother in laws debts.. NOT… hope hubby doesn’t know my handle…

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Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-01-31 15:46:08

He’s busy hunting for a team of midgets for your birthday.

 
 
Comment by TokyoRenter ExCulverCity Renter
2007-01-31 19:28:39

They used to have 100 year mortgages that could be passed down, but those pretty much all but faded away. The longest term loan you can get is 35 years. Current interest rates are at 3.00%, I have seen some as low as 2.4 and yes these are for 30-35 year loans.

When my wife and I were looking for an apartment last summer, the company our agent works for also sells housing and he said if you want to buy to wait awhile. Japan is also going through a crazy real estate bubble. Not as big as the US as it’s more localized to the Tokyo-Yokohama area and defintely not as crazy as it was in the late 80s/early 90s.

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Comment by rentor
2007-01-31 13:00:56

A steady decline like the japanese would mean year of tortous correction. Buyers and sellers, no one wants to catch a falling knief.

 
 
Comment by BanteringBear
2007-01-31 12:49:22

How many of these companies are there?

Comment by crispy&cole
2007-01-31 12:50:48

#17 less than there were 2 months ago. LOL.

Comment by ft lauderdale
2007-01-31 13:00:00

I can’t believe MSM has not started to cover this???? How long did it take them to figure out the savings and loan stuff, anyone remember?

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Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-01-31 13:10:54

Your post would imply that they ever figured it out. That’s debatable. If they had figured out the S&L crisis, it appears to me they would have been screaming bloody murder at the first sign of this housing mania. There are thousands of financial reporters that do this for a living and focus completely on these situations. It takes the little goobers like us on this blog to figure this stuff out now. Other than Stucco we all just do this part-time and it wasn’t too difficult for us to figure out. It’s a sad commentary on the state of journalism throughout the world. They are all blind, either out of stupidity or self-interest.

 
Comment by Chrisusc
2007-01-31 13:46:19

Mostly self-interest. Although, I have noticed that everytime I click the link to an article written online, there is never a substantive resume with the writer’s credentials. So they may be regular writers, who just happened to get assigned the business section or get a job with a financial newspaper.

 
Comment by James
2007-01-31 14:08:44

There were a lot of big political players in the S&L crisis that didn’t want that covered. Both sides of the fence… McCain, Clinton and many others had dirty hands. Very.

 
Comment by ft lauderdale
2007-01-31 14:12:11

I guess I am more naive than I thought, I remember some decent coverage of the dot com thing prior to crash, and I have never previously held the “MSM has been bought” sort of theory, but this situation is starting to change my mind,.. next I am going to start seeing black helicopters…

 
Comment by James
2007-01-31 14:19:48

Well. If your MSM you have to be very conservative in your predictions or you get labled chicken little. Timing is very critical in events like this too and you sound like an idiot when you mistime things.

What didn’t get covered was a lot of insiders got bailed out with questionable loans late in the game. Then Whitewater and such things came along… the keating five (not sure I got that correct). Seemed like the insiders somehow managed to get most of their money back and taxpayers ended up with the bad loans. I think a lot of the media coverage was not there though.

I was looking at 1920’s era architecture… Saw a book on Palm Beach Fla homes… beautiful mansions for the countries eliete. Some things never change.

 
Comment by ft lauderdale
2007-01-31 14:50:29

good point, but I think what is nagging at me is that the arguments for the dot com bubble were greeted with some respect and analysis.. but this… it is as if no one is “doing the math” I have some background in banking/finance etc, and can’t help but think the basic level of business acumen in the population of bankers/vc/investors is highter therefore they did not discount the arguments of 70+ PE ratios contrasted to the average Realtor/investor who may not have as clear a grasp… BUT, the analysts covering it should know better? I don’t know, but I do think something is very very wrong.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by ylekiot1
2007-01-31 12:30:04

“Mr. Klain says his Las Vegas house is valued at $419,000, according to a recent bank appraisal, well below the $440,000 he owes on the property. ‘The dump in the market put us behind the eight ball,’ he says.”

“There can be downsides for borrowers to short sales. Under certain circumstances, the debt forgiven by the bank may be taxable to the borrower. What is more, convincing a lender to go along with a short sale can be difficult, and borrowers who have a mortgage and a home-equity loan may have to negotiate with two lenders or two departments of the same bank.”

“‘There are all sorts of log jams,’ says John Izzo, the agent handling the sale of Mr. Klain’s Las Vegas house. Mr. Izzo says he is currently working on 19 short sales, but figures just ‘one in five might be successful.’”

“Log jam” - first time I heard that referencing short sales and housing! Guess there is a first time for everything.

Comment by txchick57
2007-01-31 13:12:19

Wait until he has to sell the Dallas house. He’ll wish he’d held on to LV

Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-01-31 13:17:07

LOL.

 
 
 
Comment by stanleyjohnson
2007-01-31 12:36:16

Larry goldilocks kuntlow is going to have his show on CNBC in about 1.5 hours here on west coast and he is going to be gloating on no interest increase and a story never told and this blog and myself are seeing doom and gloom with home prices.
Is there a bigger picture here Larry Kuntlow see or we here are not seeing? Reason I ask is, stock market should not be reaching these all time highs if owners are no longer sucking out of their homes.
and where are they seeing positive numbers on housing?
Help.

Comment by BanteringBear
2007-01-31 12:43:18

It’s very easy for them to find an angle. While we see median prices are down double digits YOY, they will most likely be touting a small increase in sales numbers MOM. They look for any positive increase and run with it. Spin Doctors.

 
Comment by pressboardbox
2007-01-31 12:49:01

Someone should shoot that kuntlow bastard!

Comment by rentor
2007-01-31 13:04:16

What does Bush say?

Comment by Marc Authier
2007-01-31 13:19:20

Fuddle duddle.

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Comment by Marc Authier
2007-01-31 13:08:55

No it too kick. Bleed him with a thousand cuts like the Chineese do would be preferable.

Comment by RJ
2007-01-31 14:18:57

Pudblow and Creamer both.

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Comment by CA renter
2007-01-31 13:07:55

I am amazed as well, and almost ready to capitulate (not in housing, but the general economy), after being a bear (forward-looking) for a few years.

I know better, but being wrong is getting expensive if one’s trading bearishly. :(

Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-01-31 13:15:54

Step out of the game. Wait for this thing to tank and then either get short (puts) or wait for it to really tank before getting back in long.

October 2002 was a great time to invest. But that only happened after complete destruction. The stock market is still running on housing-boom fumes. It could run a while longer. I think it’s ready to tank but it could take time.

We have been patient not buying into housing during the mania. We need to be just as patient waiting out the end of the stock market mania. There is no shame in putting your personal money into CDs or your 401k money into money-market funds. We all know it’s going to end badly. The tech boom ended badly. The housing bubble is ending badly. The housing bubble stock market will end badly.

Comment by OCDan
2007-01-31 13:51:46

Once again, hang in there, CA Renter. This thing has only started to unravel. I know it seems absurd that the market continues to climb, but other than being very dumb about stocks, that is why I don’t go there. Even with my lack of even a sliver of intellegence about WS, these “new highs” tell me this whole thing is not just a bubble, but the Hindenburg waiting for the explosion. With all the scandals of the past 20 years, WS numbers mean zip to me. Very few people you can trust. A big problem with the US economic paradigm is that everything must always grow and at very high and speedy rates vis-a-vis bubbles. We no longer have long-term growth planning. Everyone wants it now, so the banksters just manipulate everything for themselves.

However, the bottom will fall out. When you have this much debt and so many hanging on by just their weekly paychecks, somethings gotta give eventually.

Go ahead and print all the money you want. Not only will investors realize that it is a bad investment because the money becomes worth less and less, the public will feel the pinch with inflation. They won’t know what is really go on behind the scenes, but J6P will realize that all of sudden steak is now $15/pound, instead of $10/pound.

I admit to wearing my tinfoil hat for this, but here it is. Bottom line, even with my belief of inflation, get rid of as much debt as possible. Last thing you want is debt if this whole thing comes crashing down and new currency is created. While inflation helps debtors, you don’t want to be in that situation. By debt, I mean anything that is costing more than the value of what you bought, i.e. CCs, upside car, etc. Of course, mortgage WITHOUT toxic loan or HELOC, okay. While I don’t have ammo or food stockpiled for 2 years, I do believe that the less involved in this current system, the better. Just keep saving as NYC said and wait it out.

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Comment by cactus
2007-01-31 14:13:05

The stock market will go down when the FED has to raise interest rates to head off inflation. Right now its a soft landing senario. I think the main reason the FED doesn’t raise rates more is fear of a housing bubble crash, so inflation is allowed to remain higher than it should be.
I do think the FED will have to raise rates and then the stock market will correct. The FED hopes this will be after the worse of the housing correction is over.

 
Comment by CA renter
2007-01-31 23:25:15

Thanks, guys! Really appreciate the encouragement & words of wisdom. :)

The only debt we’ve had in the past ten years was a very small mortgage (sold in 2004), a two-year car loan (paid off years ago), and we carried credit card debt twice for only one-month periods (paid half one month, and half the next).

Abhor debt — been there, done that while in college. Have cash, and only trade what we can easily afford to lose.

That being said, it’s difficult to stay on top. I think inflation is here already. Everything sure seems more expensive to me!

 
 
Comment by foreclose_me
2007-01-31 16:32:38

Money market funds are not FDIC insured, and have been known to include lots of MBS. You could lose a lot that way.

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Comment by BanteringBear
2007-01-31 12:39:02

“Reno, which has the most expensive homes of the three areas, had a median price of $375,000 during the quarter, down 9 percent for the fourth quarter of 2005. Sales in Reno fell 25 percent to 489 during the quarter, according to the report.”

This is still a staggering median price for the area. The local news just did a story last night on a young couple who bought a $345,000 starter home from Lennar. It showed them sitting in their mostly unfurnished new home playing PS3. They quoted him as saying “This just shows you don’t need to be a millionaire to buy a home in this area”. Then, fade to the 20 year old jacked up Toyota truck in the driveway. I/O Option ARM anyone??

Comment by BanteringBear
2007-01-31 12:47:53

PS. I think the Reno median is dropping a few percentage points per month. A slow and steady price decline all the way to the bottom, wherever that might be.

Comment by nnvmtgbrkr
2007-01-31 13:33:52

It’ll gather downward momentum in the months ahead.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-01-31 17:37:39

About 10 years ago I was in Reno on business with a friend and sat down to play a little blackjack and we were at a medium sized casino on Virginia St and my friend was betting $25 a hand and the dealer kept shuffling the 2 decks after a few hands, and we weren’t card counters or anything, so it was a bit strange why she was doing it, so I asked her why she was doing it and she told us, “A guy walked away with $1200.00 in winnings yesterday and the pit boss told me I had to shuffle more often…”

Deep down, a scared little gambling town, nothing more.

Comment by Joe
2007-01-31 21:59:03

If Reno would just get its act together and clean up the city and stop relying on gaming so much, it could be the Boulder of the Sierras. I lived in North Lake Tahoe for a few years, and I couldn’t believe the natural beauty the area was blessed with - Reno even has a river that runs right through downtown. Vegas would kill to have that.

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-01-31 12:52:30

Looking back to my growing-up years, I can recall a nearby family with a house like this. There was one room that was completely devoid of furniture. It was meant to be a living room.

I was friends with one of the younger members of this family, and one day, I asked if we could play in the empty room. My friend seemed embarrassed about that room, and, needless to say, we didn’t play there for very long.

I guess she was doing her best to cover for the fact that her parents couldn’t afford to buy furniture for their entire house.

Comment by quietann
2007-01-31 14:09:48

There are $800K+ McMansions all over my neighborhood that don’t have much more furniture than basic appliances, a couch, and a bed for each person. Maybe a dining set. A lot of folks don’t even have money to put up curtains or shades in the window, even though mini-blinds are wicked cheap at any Big Box home improvement store…

 
 
Comment by Reno Girl
2007-01-31 13:06:30

My husband and I saw this on the news last night and thought the same thing!! Didn’t the reporter say they would be buying new furniture with all the money they saved because of incentives and the new lower price they got? Just wait until the value drops and they are upside down. Unbelievable, or I guess not really for this area and it’s stupid ignorant people.

Comment by nnvmtgbrkr
2007-01-31 13:35:45

I’m so glad I didn’t see it. Thinking back, I had a pretty good night last night, and that would have just hammered the evening.

 
 
Comment by Grant
2007-01-31 14:24:21

You beat me to the punch, bear. $375K seems ridiculously high for an area where most of the jobs are in the service sector. I’m guessing the median household income in Reno has to be below $50K.

Comment by Joe
2007-01-31 22:00:39

And that’s probably with two working adults.

 
 
 
Comment by ChillintheOC
2007-01-31 12:41:24

What is more, convincing a lender to go along with a short sale can be difficult, and borrowers who have a mortgage and a home-equity loan may have to negotiate with two lenders or two departments of the same bank.”
———————————————————————–
Anybody have any insights into how HELOC’s will be treated on short sales? I’m thinking this is a relatively new phenomenon this time around (HELOC’s were not that prevelant back in the early 90’s RE bust…although short sales were).

My guess is that the HELOC may prevent the short sale…and drive the process into foreclosure that much faster?

Comment by bearbanker
2007-02-01 11:04:19

HELOC debt holders are pretty much screwed. They can either pay off the first (in full or negotiated) and take their chances selling the home or write the whole thing off and go after the borrower for deficiency. If it’s an 80/20 and the value goes down, figure in another 10% for holding and selling costs and there is no value there. They can get a judgment and chase the previous owner around, garnish wages, attach accounts, etc. Basically an unsecured/credit card type of debt when the equity is shot.

 
 
Comment by Hoz
2007-01-31 12:42:58

“As gasoline becomes more expensive, homes closer to the heart of the Valley have become more popular, as opposed to those in Queen Creek and especially Johnson Ranch east of there. ‘The farther out you go, the harder they have been hit,’ said Gina McKinley, a Chandler resident and real estate agent.”
Pinetop Smith’s Boogie Woogie says it all “that’s what I’m talking about”. This was long ago predicted on this blog that outliers would get hit first then move in to the city. This is just the beginning folks.

Comment by txchick57
2007-01-31 13:12:59

Gee that was a tough one to predict ;)

 
 
Comment by Kevin Road
2007-01-31 12:53:47

Between the Fed saying everything is good and long term rates starting to trend down again and spring coming I guess we will have to wait longer in DC for the prices to drop. Houses are starting sell a lot quicker and in larger numbers. I’m hating it…@#$%^&*

Comment by Markmax33
2007-01-31 13:10:11

Kevin,
Things always pick up in the spring. Don’t get frustrated. This is going to be a long process and we are just on the other side of the apex. Look at the year over year numbers and tell me the statistics look good still! As long as there are million dollar homes in Prince George’s County, the market hasn’t even began to adjust back to proper levels.

Comment by Kevin Road
2007-01-31 13:20:30

In Markmax33 I trust!! It is frustrating.

 
 
 
Comment by pressboardbox
2007-01-31 13:05:11

The Soft Landing is here!!!! You guys have to be excited, I know I am. After so much uncertainty we finally have our soft landing (according to CNBC), thank GOD!!!! I’m going to celebrate by buying four condos!

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-01-31 13:08:07

A few days ago we had thread about Senator Dodd attempting to start some FB bailout bill. Here was my letter to him. Flood his office with more no bailout of FBers.

Senator Dodd.
Please do NOT use any taxpayer money (of which I pay my fair share) to bail out any fools that took out toxic loans to buy overpriced housing. While I feel bad that many folks have been caught who just wanted a home to live in, they still chose to buy and did not think about such a major purchase. And most important, the flippers that are now holding the bag should be left to live with their greed and take their lumps. Also, the financial institutions that enabled this idiosy should be left to hold the bag for their poor decisions. I didn’t buy into this greed, and don’t want to pay for other’s greed. When I got myself in a big mess, nobody came to bail me out. And my loss was just as significant as these homedebtors.
Thank you
Alan Belliston
US Citizen and responsible citizen.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-01-31 13:27:07

Good letter ,short and to the point .

Also
“‘I think 2007 is the year that everybody needs to be very careful and watch,’he said’”

That’s the problem ,everybody is going to be watching and nobody is going to be buying .

 
 
Comment by Big Bob Slob
2007-01-31 13:10:39

‘The dump in the market put us behind the eight ball,’ he says.”
I say the behind the of the market dumped an eight ball the size of a Bob Slob dropping.

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2007-01-31 13:14:15

Gee, a room without any furniture. I actually liked that idea. I wanted to leave the formal living room empty in our new home so that it could be a room for children to run/play/have fun/scream/mess up (and then clean up), etc. Unfortunately, I got voted down and wife filled it up with new furniture. I can afford the furniture, but I just thought would have been a nice playroom. 95% of the time, we sit in the family room anyway. Just my 2 cents worth.

 
Comment by greginaz
2007-01-31 13:15:38

I have been in Phoenix for over 30 years. What spin!! There is no land shortage or limitations due to gas prices. It is simply affordability. Also, had a realtor tell me that large lots were out as buyers did not want the maintenance. Sure, homeowners want to walk out their back door and do a face plant on the block fence.

Comment by BanteringBear
2007-01-31 13:39:27

Right. It’s all spin. The reason for the small lots, is that the builders grossly overpaid for the land, so they are attempting to cram as many homes in as possible, in essence passing their blunder on to the buyers. I don’t know anyone who would CHOOSE to live on top of one another like this. Just say no!

 
 
Comment by bruce
Comment by GetStucco
2007-01-31 14:08:22

Rex rocks!

Comment by Dan
2007-01-31 15:09:06

David Saddam Al-Lereah’s twin brother:

http://www.welovetheiraqiinformationminister.com/

 
 
 
Comment by Chrisusc
2007-01-31 13:28:28

“He bought a home in Dallas, thinking he had found a buyer willing to pay $475,000 for his Las Vegas home..”

“But honey - I thought I had the home sold…”

Other famous & noteworthy last words:

“remember the Alamo”
“we outnumber them…” (General Custard)
“I thought you were on the pill…”

Comment by Chrisusc
2007-01-31 13:31:00

Custard = Custer

 
Comment by OCDan
2007-01-31 13:59:37

Don’t forget

“The check is in the mail” Great for the FBs
“I have never done this kind of thing before” Yeah, like take out a $900K mortgage for no more than 300K PoS.

 
Comment by arroyogrande
2007-01-31 14:02:12

“General Custard” is actually the agreed upon spelling. He was a half brother to Col. Mustard, who was found dead in the conservatory with a candle stick.

Comment by Jerry from Richardson
2007-01-31 22:03:14

mmmmmmmmm……custard

 
 
Comment by Auger-inn
2007-01-31 14:09:10

Don’t forget “I’ll pull out”!

Comment by RJ
2007-01-31 14:27:41

too late

Comment by Chrisusc
2007-01-31 17:45:28

LMAO.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by nnvmtgbrkr
2007-01-31 13:54:08

‘Though we’re not near as bad as Las Vegas, there is still a speculative element here that has driven up prices.’”

Oh shut-the-F-up already!

Comment by arroyogrande
2007-01-31 14:03:55

nnvmtgbrkr, do you do sub-prime? Any word on how the sub-prime market is doing (volume, standards, defaults)?

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2007-01-31 13:59:58

‘The dump in the market put us behind the eight ball,’ he says.”

What dump? I missed it, RE always goes up you just have not done the proper research. Call that girl, what’s her name? She does the best of all the realtwhores.

 
Comment by AZ_BubblePopper
2007-01-31 14:02:30

‘If you bought in mid- to the end of 2005, you probably have experienced a loss in value,’

Anyone see a problem with this remark? It must have come from a REIC dolt. It’s clever and misleading, attempting to reassure those that bought prior to 2005 that they are not losing “value”.

The statement should have been “If you bought since 2005 you are under water”.

Everyone that owns a home lost value since 2005.

Comment by technovelist
2007-01-31 15:58:05

My home has about the same value as it did in 2005. Its market price may be different (I don’t know, as there are very few sales in my neighborhood even in a hot market), but the value is pretty much unchanged.

 
 
Comment by Jenny
2007-02-01 11:31:34

Reno, Sparks, Carson City, Dayton….All suck. There are no good paying jobs here. How many can afford a 450K+ home in these areas.. probably 10%. How many have bought second investment homes in there areas … almost all. Every friend of mine in these areas is expecting at least 100k+ profit and are expecting/still hopeful to sell in 2007 for > 450k+. People in Dayton and Carson city are also expecting the same. There are no jobs (zero) in Dayton and Carson city job creation and pay are both low…..Everyone here bought Luxury cars and plasma Tvs betting on their home values…God save them…2007 is going to be very interesting…everyone who boasted about their gains will be crying for sure… God save them….

 
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