The Housing Bubble

The entire stock market is over inflated

dawnal
I’ve been trading stocks on a daily basis for a long time. After a couple of years, you realize that trying to make a profit trading stocks by using “logic” and acting on “news” is totally futile.

There are hundreds of books out there on trading the stock market. I’ve read a lot of them and came to the conclusion after a few years that most of the people who write these books make more money out of writing than trading.

People should wake up and smell the coffee and realize that our lives are totally manipulated these days. By government and news corporations. Numbers are invented, skewed, cooked. Call,it what you may.

Western governments are controlled by the multi-national corporations. Politicians are beholden to corporations in a lot of ways. A lot of politicians are on corporate boards or have been promised lucrative positions once they leave politics, on corporate boards and, of course, without corporate donations either under the table or out in the open, every politician might just as well give up politics. Thus, nearly EVERY ploitician does as he or she is told. Not just in the US (but most are US corporations) but in Europe and other places. For instance, the UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, has been this administrations pet poodle since 9/11 and if you follow UK news you can see on a daily basis just how corrupt he is. He’s also been promised a directorship (and possibly several) at a US corporation which has many US political connections. I think I read it’s the Carlyle Group. It gets worse.

The corporations now control a lot of the more powerful media. For instance, GE owns NBC. GE is a very large government defence contractor contractor. It’s pretty well understood that GE restricts certain news if it looks like it could harm GE financially. Rupert Murdoch owns Fox and many newspapers and other news outlets in other countries. Again, news is sifted, washed and vetted before being aired and “sanitized” for mass consumption.

Government numbers are now (especially under this administration) totally cooked and basically irrelevant but they are still announced with great pomp and as if they were important.

Inflation and employment numbers are being manipulated and “adjusted” constantly. Where jobs are concerned, some numbers (like those who have stopped looking for work or their unemployment benefits have expired) are not counted. Also, the “quality” of jobs are not included. 50 workers who lost $35 an hour jobs because of outsourcing and had to take $12 an hour jobs to survive, do not exactly paint a rosy picture of employment the government would like us to believe. Where employment is concerned, we now have MASSIVE Federal government employment rolls. In most cases, these government jobs are non-productive and simply suck money out of the economy or are being paid for by printing more money. For instance:

The Fed (hand in hand with government now and NOT independant as they would like us to believe) have discontinued M3 (money supply) because it was hard to fool everyone that things were fine when M3 showed the amount of liquidity being produced via the printing press. Inflation is, and has been, running at around 7% to 10% depending on what YOU (the consumer) care to include as opposed to them (the government and the Fed) decide to exclude. That being food, energy and housing (not rents which have hardly moved and are included in government inflation figures).

TRUE inflation, of course, is running at about 7% to 10%. However, as far as your post is concerned, you can TOTALLY ignore logic with these stocks. Don’t give yourself an ulcer by getting pissed that Mortgage Brokers and Builders are shooting up while the market is turning down. They are manipulated and cooked in various ways. The ONLY way to judge a stock is through charts but even then the numbers are manipulated so that a chart can be made to perform the way they want. “They” being the Wall Street brokers. A.K.A Da Boyz. A.K.A The Financial Gangsters of Wall Street.

It’s nothing new but it’s become much worse of late. The Johhny Carson Show banned 2 people from appearing on his show. One was Ralph Nader who attacked the large auto manufacturers for selling un-safe vehicles. The other was an ex-actor by the name of Richard Ney. Once married to actress Greer Garson. He become a very successful Wall Street investor and wrote a few books about Wall Street. One being “The Wall Street Jungle” and another being “The Wall Street Gang”. None were flattering. In fact, he blew the lid off Wall Street’s Financial Gangsters and they HATE being exposed to the light of truth. One book was on the New York Best Seller list for almost a year. However, the Times refused to review the book and the WSJ refused to take an ad promoting the book. He also gained recognition for predicting the 1962 crash. He died in 2004 but I might ad he was a capitalist and drove a Rolls Royce to advertise the fact that he believed in capitalism. However, I doubt if he beleived in the manipulated capitalisam we see today.

One more point. There are those who say that numbers are “lagging”. In other words, if Toll Brothers is going up and Countrywide is going up, it only reflects what was happening a few months ago. Total b.s. Manipulation is now micro-managed on a daily basis.

“Tired of lying in the sunshine staying home to watch the rain
You are young and life is long and there is time to kill today
And then one day you find ten years have got behind you
No one told you when to run, you missed the starting gun”

To my knowledge, it won’t work. The problem is getting the cash to your landlord, who won’t accept Visa/MC.

Normally, he banks are charging the merchants 1-2.5% of a transaction. So cash back is essentially sharing the commission with the purchaser. (Thanks!) But if no commission is being paid, then they make it quite difficult to collect.

In the case of rent, you’d write a check (the CC comes with “convenience” checks) but they’d tack on 3% to you.

So there’s still no free lunch.

There are a thousand ways to get screwed out of what you thought should be your reward. I spent four months in a Sheraton Residence hotel in Abu Dhabi. Joined Starwood to get the points. On checkout (not before, mind you) the oh-so-polite staff told me that I get zero points because my stay was for more than 30 days. What absolute crap. I would have checked out every 30th day, for a day, if they had told me that up front.

The very same.

I dont think there is a point value associated with it. I have pulled customer’s credit several times and the value doesnt change. The credit agencies keep there formula’s under guarded secret so, im not surehow anyone can tell you the number of points associated with anything on a credit file.

I was thinking about identity theft and realised I had a CC with a high credit limit that I haven’t used in years so I closed it about 8 months ago. I didn’t even think about my fico score at the time. I just checked my score and because I now don’t have the available credit, i lost 75 pts, from 825 to 750. Now I am starting to think about getting them back cause other closed lines on my report are getting old and soon they will be gone, and I will probably lose more.

If someone who posts here is in the insurance industry, it would be interesting to see what environmental models that industry is using to price risk.

And suppose you were in the government. Wouldn’t it be your best interest (since you have an apetite for control) to invent a global crisis so that you can usher more people down that road to serfdom? Michael Crichton wrote a nice novel about this global warming craze, which is actually balanced, especially by his serious suggestions at the end of the book. Yes, lots of these scientists have their own interests of getting more funding - but on both sides of the issue. I wonder how this all would play if we had minarchist governments for the majority of human societies instead of welfare states?

it’s like saving the rain forest vs. the jungle
it’s all BS

I find it amusing that a group of people who so readily understand feedback loops in respect to the housing bubble (how the combined effects of foreclosures, rising inventories, ARMs resetting, etc. will have an exponential effect) deny the possibility that feedback loops could exist in regards to climate change. I think the new FBers, those people who are delusional enough to believe housing prices keep rising ad infinitum, are closely related to poeple who believe that we can continue to pollute at outrageous rates and not have any effect on our environment. I’m not one who thinks the sky is falling, but I am one who understands that the greenhouse effect is very basic and something that should not be ignored. Rather than reading tripe like Michael Crichton, I’d suggest reading Elizabeth Kolbert’s Field Notes from a Catastrophe. You might not agree with everything she posits, but it’s interesting reading nonetheless. (PS = Crichton DOES have some good points to be made, mostly about how Hollywood types who fly around in private jets and live in mansions are immense hypocrites.)

You’re actually not far off the mark. Researchers noted that in the days following 9/11 there was a noticeable but subtle change in surface temperature. They concluded that the lack of air flights (and the lack of contrails) reduced the amount of low cloud cover, which slightly raised surface temperature. The kicker is, of course, that airplanes spew tons of CO2 into the atmosphere, so the positive effects are largely negated.

The book “Field Notes from a Catastrophe” is also pretty excellent on this subject — auther is Elizabeth Kolbert (sp?). Pick up a copy at your local library - you’ll probably be able to finish it in a long weekend.

I laughed all the way through that stupid movie.

I am aware that global CO2 has risen and is still rising. I am also aware that there appears to be a correlation between CO2 increase and generally rising world temperatures. What I do not believe is that scientific assumptions written by men and women, inputted into a computer is now established fact. Last year the “climate scientists” said there would be 25 named hurricanes with 16 hitting the US - not. They cannot even get the weather prediction right 10 days from today and I am supposed to believe some computer model spewing out weather in 50 years. I grew up in the GIGO rule and unfortunately I feel like this is more of the same.

“He has described Al Gore’s documentary as “a political statement timed to present him as a presidential candidate in 2008.” And he added, “The glossy production is replete with inaccuracies and misrepresentations, and appeals to public fear as shamelessly as any other political statement that hopes to unite the public behind a particular ideology.” This from a guy who voted for Gore in 2000 and says he’d probably vote for him again. ”

Giegengack may have a personal 50-year perspective on global warming, but the time range he prefers to consult is more on the geologists’ scale. The Earth has been warming, he says, for about 20,000 years. We’ve only been collecting data on that trend for about 200 years. “For most of Earth history,” he says, “the globe has been warmer than it has been for the last 200 years. It has only rarely been cooler.” Those cooler periods have meant things like two miles of ice piled over much of what is now North America. Nothing to be nostalgic for.

The professor hits a button on his computer, and the really long-term view appears — the past 650,000 years. In that time, the Earth’s temperature has gone through regular cycles of rise and fall. The best explanation of those cycles was conceived by a Serbian amateur scientist named Milutin Milankovi´c. Very basically, Milankovi´c said this: The Earth’s orbit around the sun is more or less circular, but when other planets align in certain ways and their gravitational forces tug at the Earth, the orbit stretches into a more elliptical shape. Combined with the tilt of the Earth on its axis as it spins, that greater or lesser distance from the sun, plus the consequent difference in solar radiation that reaches our planet, is responsible for long-term climate change.
NOW TO THE CRUX OF THE Al Gore argument — the idea that rising carbon dioxide levels are causing an increase in temperature.

To determine temperatures and carbon dioxide levels in the distant past, scientists rely on what they call the “proxy record.” There weren’t thermometers. So researchers drill deep down into the Antarctic ice sheet and the ocean floor and pull up core samples, whose varying chemical elements let them gauge both the CO2 levels and the temperatures of the distant past.

Gieg clicks a button, and three charts come together. The peaks and valleys of the Milankovi´c cycles for planetary temperature align well with the ocean-floor estimates, and those match closely the records of carbon dioxide concentrations and temperature indications from ice cores. So, the professor maintains, these core samples from the polar ice and ocean floor help show that the Earth’s temperature and the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have been in lockstep for tens of thousands of years.

Of course, that was long before anybody was burning fossil fuels. So Giegengack tells his students they might want to consider that “natural” climatic temperature cycles control carbon dioxide levels, not the other way around. That’s the crux of his argument with Gore’s view of global warming — he says carbon dioxide doesn’t control global temperature, and certainly not in a direct, linear way. ”

U. Penn professor Robert Giegengack.

http://phillymag.com/articles/science_al_gore_is_a_greenhouse_gasbag

Anyone who wants can very easily find massive refutation of Gore’s movie about the internet. Global warming is part and parcel of a continuing hysteria since the seventies. Anyone remember “Acid Rain”? The prediction of an “Ice Age”?
The end of the rain forests? The population “bomb”?

It seems like some people need a “natural” catastrophe of some sort every eight or nine years or so. Is the earth warming? Yes. Just like it has cooled and warmed during last 2000 years. Is man the cause of this NOW?
Funny how scientists are certain of that just as they were certain of the other hysterias……..and of course, THEY have no conflict of interest in generating urgency to spend massive government sums on “studies”…..nooooooooooooo.

As I understand it, twenty times the polar ice cap has changed … most of those times were before man and his machines could influenced the process. Once heard that one volcanic eruption makes a greater negative impact that millions of cars. I’m convinced we don’t know near enough about all this yet but there is money to be made on our ignorance, greed and fear; so, everyone has their own scenario of where and how the sky is falling — and the blame game is a hoot! I don’t trust anyone on this issue!! Clearly another case where Miles Law applies: “Where you stand depends on where you sit”.

Isn’t it funny how people who flock to this blog are highly skeptical of the government, the media and the REIC yet they take “scientists” who have flogged hysterias that were just as theoretical as “global warming” (or is it now “climate change”?) before cannot possibly imagine there is an alternative to the “consensus”.

There is no such thing in science as “consensus”. There is either theory or fact. Right now, warming (caused mostly by man) is theory, therefor it isn’t “science”. Maybe they’ll be able to prove the theory some day but, until then, shouldn’t A LITTLE skepticism be considered?
Allowed?

Strat3go — your appearance here is sudden and therefore unlikely not by coincidence nor our good fortune. “How do you explain all the insurance companies bailing out of Florida?” Money and politics, or politics and money. Nothing else, including theories on rising sea levels.

How can we event take their “global warming” predictions seriously if they can’t even forcast a 24-hour period accurately.

Al Gore travels by private jet and in a caravan of SUVs. Anyone who listens to that hypocrite is a fool.

I haven’t seen the Gore movie, but does it go into any of the possible outcomes of global warming?

Are any of the possible outcomes POSSITIVE? Just wondering, because from all of the media reports, any change in climate anly results in global catastrophes. Are we in the exact best climate in the history of the planet right now?

I’m not saying that global warming doesn’t exist, or that mankind may not have some role in it, but all of the media reports about the outcomes of global warming are all negative. You would expect that at least some outcomes of global warming to be “net possitives” (eg being able to grow a certain crop further south, etc.). This actually makes me suspicious of the whole movement, because I would suspect any reasonable scientist to acknowledge that there would be both negatives and positives with any climate change. So why haven’t we heard about the positives? Something is fishy, me thinks.

Oh dear Krazy … ever taken a basic marketing class? Fear sells. Another eye opening class is Propaganda 101 (where one learns when to use phrases like: “you have nothing to lose” or “they aren’t making anymore land” or “ignore this and your grandchildren will pay the price” or “real estate only goes up” and so much more!).

Tell that to the ice caps at the poles.

carefugge- if you invested any time in reading about global warming you’d see that events like in colorado are more likely BECAUSE of global warming. weather events are supposed to get more weird. in the NE we have had one of the warmest winters ever. it was in the 60-70s just a few weeks ago. flowers are blooming in DC.

Um, that would be LOCAL cooling, not GLOBAL cooling.

Take any ecology classes lately?

Anecdote is not evidence. Some peeps need to go back to the drawing board and tighten the foil helmet chinstrap.

you must be so uninformed to even make that statement. global climate change is NOT the same as local weather.

When people can’t eat because people can’t farm because it’s too damn hot, then blood will be in the streets.

Well supporters of the liberal establishment tend to go “oh boy, not another gold / gun / god / defense hawk wierdo” when they see anyone support gold. BTW: I’m not into religion, astrology, pink elephants, whatsoever, and I’m into gold.

Beat me to the punch, Nova.

I said “rowhouse” which is what we call them in DC. In the ‘burbs they call them “townhomes” (gag) and yes, “attached houses” in San Francisco.