February 2, 2007

Sellers Are Willing To Give It Away

It’s desk clearing time for this blog. South Carolina. “Three Grand Strand real estate agents made the trek to Columbia on Tuesday to tell their stories of buyers backing out of deals because of insurance costs. Even sellers offering free homeowners association dues for a year can’t sell because there are other condos for sale priced $20,000 below the market price, said Steve Tansey, agent in Myrtle Beach.”

“‘Sellers are willing to give it away, and they can’t sell it. You know you have a problem when you can’t give it away,’ agent Randy Titus said.”

From Kentucky. “The Lexington-Bluegrass Association of Realtors reported yesterday that local home sales dipped in 2006, but not nearly as steeply as building permits. ‘Residential building permits declined by 30.1 percent in Fayette County in 2006.”

“That’s a huge decline, said Dale Akins, president of The Market Edge. ‘The market got really weak, especially in the third and fourth quarters’ of 2006, Akins said.”

From Florida. “Bayboro at is a conversion of a 37-year-old apartment building. Prices start as low as $132,000 for a studio. But downtown living can be attractive yet tight. Bayboro’s largest units are 740 square feet. The smallest units have kitchens barely large enough to open the cabinets, but even third-floor windows look onto Tampa Bay.”

From Taiwan. “The nation’s property market is likely to slide as the economy shows signs of slowing down, said a report released on Wednesday. One challenge for the housing market this year is digesting the oversupply has resulted from mass construction over the last three years. The value of houses and apartments on the market was about NT$30 billion (US$1 billion) last year, compared with only NT$10 billion in the past, it said.”

“Britons filed for bankruptcy in record numbers last year, with the total exceeding 100,000, as rising interest rates forced consumers to default on swelling debts. Individual insolvencies in England and Wales rose 59 percent from 2005 to 107,288, the Department for Trade and Industry said. The reading was the highest since records began in 1960.”

“‘People are blindly taking on debt without thinking about how they’ll repay it,’ said Louise Brittain, head of personal insolvency at the U.K.’s no. 7 accountancy firm. ‘As a nation, we have totally binged. I think the numbers of insolvencies will continue to rise.’”

From Canada. “A manufacturer of housing-related products is looking around B.C. for a factory site, but Vernon appears to have priced itself out of the market. ‘We’re a bit high in terms of what they want to pay for land,’ said Dave Forai, economic development manager.”

“With home prices softening and sales volumes sagging in many local markets, real estate appraisers say that pressure on them to inflate values has reached pandemic proportions. A new survey of the national appraisal industry found that 90 percent of appraisers reported that mortgage brokers, realty agents, lenders and even consumers have pressured them to raise property valuations to enable deals to go through.”

“‘I call it a perfect storm scenario,’ said Alan Hummel, senior VP of one of the largest property valuation firms in the country. ‘You’ve got a situation where sales are down so everybody in the deal needs it to go through’ at the contract price - the mortgage broker, the Realtor, the lender, and even individual sellers.”

“The national market is going through ‘probably one of the biggest, most dangerous bubbles we’ve had in this country,’ said hedge fund manager Bill Fleckenstein at a forum sponsored by the Greater Seattle Chamber of Commerce.”

“‘I really think it was more of a lending bubble and an abdication of responsibility by the lending institutions,’ he said. ‘Anybody with a pulse could borrow any amount of money.’”

“Foreclosures have hit Sandusky County hard, with the number of actions started last year totaling 130, a 202 percent increase from 2005. That’s a larger rise than in any other county in northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan.”

“Even Hancock County, which generally is considered financially healthy, had a 69 percent increase in foreclosures last year. That county has jobs, but they may not pay as much as those from years past, noted Jim Staschiak, a broker in Findlay.”

“‘Almost anyone with a job can qualify for a home loan now,’ he said.”

From Nevada. “Let’s hope that Carson City doesn’t see another boom any time soon. Why? Because every boom has its bust that leaves victims, and in this case, they’re strewn all over Carson City.”

“Consider that homes cost an average of $199,000 in 2002, and that now, just over four years later, they’re well over $300,000, well out of reach for many of the residents of Carson City. The market is full of homes from speculators who bought intending to resell soon after at a huge profit that they’ll never see. Many of those homes are likely to become rental properties.”

“A much better scenario for Carson City is steady, sustained growth in which everyone will benefit. There may not be many people getting rich, but at least there won’t be as many people going broke.”




RSS feed | Trackback URI

88 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-02-02 14:07:43

Another great week! My thanks to those who support this blog. Those wishing to donate by mail can send me an email at: thehousingbubble@gmail.com. Please check back this weekend for news, your market observations and topics.

Comment by claw
Comment by Chip
2007-02-02 17:20:57

Claw — nice catch and super-timely. TxChick knows more about these failures than the great majority of us — hopefully she’ll tune in and opine.

 
Comment by Mozo Maz
2007-02-02 20:06:12

The bloggers are right again! The FDIC really does like to take over before the weekend. I guess they have more time to go rooting through the files before the next bank day.

 
 
 
Comment by Sniggle
2007-02-02 14:37:43

‘Even sellers offering free homeowners association dues for a year can’t sell because there are other condos for sale priced $20,000 below the market price, said Steve Tansey, agent in Myrtle Beach.”

Steve is an idiot (and a real estate agent, go figure). If there are condos for sale $20,000 below where your clients are listing them, then I would suggest that your listing are atleast $20,000 above the market price.

Comment by Firehawk
2007-02-02 15:17:35

Well said, however, that still only means that those listings (the $20k lower ones) are market price listings if they actually sell…

If not, the market price is even further below that …

Comment by Auger-inn
2007-02-02 17:40:56

In which case, we can say with some assurance that you ARE NOT GIVING THEM AWAY! What a friggin dolt. One of the dumbest comments this week.

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-02-02 18:54:56

It appears our friends from the Hilton Head area are looking to get out. They’re coming to our area, near the mountains, to look and maybe buy. Said greatly increased insurance cost is a big issue, but rampant growth in that area is another issue that’s as big or bigger with them.

Unfortunately as more people discover this area, the modest growth here will accelerate. Actually I think it already has. An article in the local paper talked about a real estate company nearby that had its best year ever last year.

OMG, does that mean the bubble is coming here?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by pismoclam
2007-02-02 20:01:36

They are 20k above ‘The Asking Price’, not the market price? What say you???

 
 
Comment by Pen
2007-02-02 14:46:08

“Britons filed for bankruptcy in record numbers last year, with the total exceeding 100,000, as rising interest rates forced consumers to default on swelling debts. Individual insolvencies in England and Wales rose 59 percent from 2005 to 107,288, the Department for Trade and Industry said. The reading was the highest since records began in 1960.”

I thought Britain was part of the new paradigm and that the scarcity of land, etc. was proof positive that prices would never go there and that it was a preview of how the US would be…

Why can’t people understand that when and if people are “priced out”, it is a precusor to the beginning of the end?

Just like, if stocks only went up, we’d all be rich very quickly, but relative to each other, we could end still equal..

Comment by Neil
2007-02-02 22:47:42

Why can’t people understand that when and if people are “priced out”, it is a precusor to the beginning of the end?

I loved it when a realtor told me I’d be priced out forever if I didn’t buy now…

I just smiled and went “then I’ll have to move out of state with my department, we have too many people priced out forever…”

The only question is how long will this take to unfold and how far down will we go?

Got popcorn?
Neil

 
 
Comment by Quirk
2007-02-02 14:48:44

Well, folks, we all know that the housing market is going to bounce back wonderfully on Monday. After all, every realtor knows what Sunday is.

PS: Punky Phil did not see his shadow, which means we’ll have six more weeks of listings.

Comment by rentor
2007-02-02 16:16:36

My trouble is I expect this to go down like the Titanic in 1 night, and yes Monday will bring a new start and confusion about bevilderment about the night that was.

 
Comment by Louie Louie
2007-02-02 16:34:17

Inman news predicts the NAR will be doing a SPOT on SuperBall Sunday! Wipes! Dont hit the TV!

Comment by Chip
2007-02-02 17:13:02

Thanks for the heads up. I’ll put saran wrap across the screen.

Comment by Neil
2007-02-02 18:42:22

Hopefully the screen can take my screaming at the bastards. ;)

Got popcorn?
Neil

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by Dan
2007-02-02 17:22:53

I don’t know what this year’s rate is, but it’s got to be around $2M/30sec spot. How can they afford to blow that much on a mere $40M budget?

 
Comment by Rickoshay100
2007-02-02 23:39:49

“Inman news predicts the NAR will be doing a SPOT on SuperBall Sunday!”

Anyone want to join a class action against the NAR for false and misleading advertisement? I don’t think we’d have a problem proving the case……

 
 
 
Comment by Cow_tipping
2007-02-02 14:57:10

But … but … but … I thought everyone wants to live in Carson City … what … they dont … man, next thing you’ll say is Greg Swann was wrong … what … he is … dammit …
But, But, But, I thought Suzanne researched this …
You mean Cow herding doesn’t pay 250,000 a year … man that’s america’s toughest jobs …
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

 
Comment by BanteringBear
2007-02-02 14:58:20

“…Consider that homes cost an average of $199,000 in 2002, and that now, just over four years later, they’re well over $300,000, well out of reach for many of the residents of Carson City. That’s not likely to change…”

Not likely to change? Hmmm. Last I checked, the bottom had fallen out of prices with no support in sight. Carson City is getting hammered.

Comment by nnvmtgbrkr
2007-02-02 16:35:22

You ain’t seen nothin yet.

 
 
Comment by sfv_hopeful
2007-02-02 15:09:05

“Sellers are willing to give it away, and they can’t sell it. You know you have a problem when you can’t give it away,’ agent Randy Titus said”

Since when did the term, “give it away” still imply receiving money? I’m really starting to hate that phrase… give it away. If they truly would like to give it away, I’d be more than happy to take it from them and sell it for market price.

Comment by BanteringBear
2007-02-02 15:14:38

I am irritated by the “well I’m not going to give it away!” crap too. How about some straight talk instead. Like, “I am so angry, and delusional with greed, that I am not budging on my price and will ride it all the way down to the bottom, or my grave, whichever comes first!”

Comment by nnvmtgbrkr
2007-02-02 16:37:46

The saying goes “a fool and his money are easily parted”, but failed to mention the proud, the arrogant, and the greedy.

 
Comment by Arwen U.
2007-02-02 19:04:55

[Fawlty and Mrs. Richards, a guest who refuses to wear her hearing aid as it runs the batteries down]
Mrs. Richards: Hello? Hello? There’s no one there.
Fawlty: takes phone Hello? Yes, I know she is, try talking louder. hands phone back.
Mrs. R: Hello? Hello? Weve been cut off. Disgraceful, does nothing in this hotel work?
Fawlty: Hello? Look may I suggest you tell me what you want to say, and I’ll pass it on. It’s your sister. It seems that somebody has made an offer of 85,000 pounds on your house in Brighton, and she wants to know what to do.
Mrs. R: 85,000? grabs phone Now look here Stephanie, 92,500 pounds is what I said, and I wont take a penny less! slams down phone Why don’t people listen? Exits.

Comment by Chrisusc
2007-02-02 21:42:01

That’s pretty funny.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Vmaxer
2007-02-02 15:42:29

“‘Sellers are willing to give it away, and they can’t sell it. You know you have a problem when you can’t give it away,’ agent Randy Titus said.”

“Giving it away” implies that it’s free. So to suggest that any price above $0 is giving it away is just a bunch of B.S..

It another one of those terms used to put pressure on buyers. It suggests that the buyer is unfairly expecting sellers to give them a house for $0.

Other tactics used on buyers may be a good topic of discussion?

Comment by HK_Vol
2007-02-02 18:11:44

Actually, buildings were being given away in Manhattan in the 1930’s. The cost of upkeep, maintenance & taxes were more than rental income. Trinity Church in downtown Manhattan accepted some of these buildings, but turned down others as it had cash flow problems at the time as well. That said, I’m pretty sure that Trinity Church (end of Wall Street) remains the largest landlord in downtown Manhattan.

 
 
Comment by AZ_BubblePopper
2007-02-02 15:49:41

Why bother trying to sell? Just sit on it. The lender will be willing “to give it away”, when the time comes.

Comment by Jim A.
2007-02-02 16:04:38

Why would the lender be happy? They’ve out of pocket if they sell for less than they’re owed too. Sending the borrower a 1099 does nothing to lower the sting of loosing money. We just hope that they have a more rational view considering holding costs.

Comment by rentor
2007-02-02 16:46:49

Banks aren’t happy to do this but they know if you can’t make payment today it’s highly unlikely you will be able to make payment tomorrow. They take the lumps ASAP write off losses against gains and know tomorrow another house will be in the same predicament.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by tube_ee
2007-02-02 16:23:37

The lender won’t give it away… they’ll get money for it. Not enough to pay off the loan, but they’ll get paid.

However, Mr. “I’m not going to give it away!” will do precisely that. He’ll give it away… to the bank. He’ll get nothing. That’s why it’s called a “gift.”

The bank thanks you, but you’re probably not going to like the “Thank You” note they’ll be sending.

–Shannon

Comment by tj & the bear
2007-02-02 17:58:03

The lender won’t give it away… they’ll get money for it.

Maybe… maybe not. I can easily envision SFH ghost towns and lifeless condo towers sitting empty until the lender can’t stand continually forking over HOAs & taxes.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by wmbz
2007-02-03 05:41:31

Exactly! I remember in the 80’s a few condo projects in our town that they could not “give away” prices went from $89,900.00 down to $29,000.00 before the bank could find any buyers. We will re-live those days again, and for those that say never well they are not old enough. Never say never!

 
 
 
Comment by Inspired
2007-02-02 21:19:52

Exactly, bubble popper. I enjoeyed that one!

 
 
 
Comment by Christian Gross
2007-02-02 15:13:20

Oh I am glad that the Brits are going bankrupt in major numbers. The Brits are largely responsible for the sky high property prices in nice regions of Europe (eg Cote D’Azur, Chamonix, etc).

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4153/is_20050629/ai_n14691806

With their high pound and easy credit they easily out bid the locals. I have nothing against the free market, but they are destroying the market by overbidding for tiny lots and sky high housing. When the market crashes the Brits will not be there, but oodles of houses wasting away will be!

Comment by Vmaxer
2007-02-02 15:55:23

With the dollar down about 30% against the Euro and British pound, the Europeans who flocked to Florida to buy properties, are down about 50% relative to their currencies. And it’s only going to get worse for them, as prices continue to slide and when the Fed drops rate the dollar will fall even more. “Jingle mail from Europe” coming soon. It’s a double pounding for them.

 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-02-02 17:31:05

So are you saying that the Brits are the Californians of Europe? Let’s say you are right and the Brits have been the ones driving prices up. If/when (we all know it’s only “if”) this thing collapses in Europe there will be finger-pointing just like we are already seeing on this side of the Pond. How ugly will it be for the Brits when the conspiracy theories about them retaining the pound as their currency start to hit the media. And the French are probably the most gullible to conspiracy theories in all the West. This should be lovely. Please pour me a spot of tea and let me watch this unwind.

Comment by Cassandra
2007-02-03 07:58:57

“Brits are the Californians of Europe” Watch your mouth! That vile comment may set off an international incident! :-)

 
 
 
Comment by Sobay
2007-02-02 15:38:38

““‘I really think it was more of a lending bubble and an abdication of responsibility by the lending institutions,’ he said. ‘Anybody with a pulse could borrow any amount of money.’”

Roger that. If you were illegal you got extra help here in So Ca.

“‘I really think it was more of a lending bubble ”

No Dude….I really think that it is more of a slaughter.

Comment by nnvmtgbrkr
2007-02-02 16:41:25

I’ve often said that the bubble would have burst 2 years earlier had it not been for the abuses of the industry that I am a part of.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-02-02 17:27:18

nnvmtgbrkr……..I know you have been around for a long time and you have been around in prior lending cycles . I’m just curious if you can pin-point what year the market really started changing over to this stupid lending .Any thoughts ?

Comment by tj & the bear
2007-02-02 18:01:48

Definitely not a RE pro here like nnv, but IMO the toxic & sub-prime stuff seemed to take off early 2003 just when it looked like the market was slowing down. Check out almost any historical price chart on Zillow and you’ll see it clear as day, too.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-02-02 19:39:20

Tj…..My take on it was last quarter 2002 or early 2003 also .I remember that lull in 2002 and I wonder if that’s when the sub-prime guys started working their magic to keep the party going .

 
 
Comment by nnvmtgbrkr
2007-02-02 19:32:48

I’d say tj is about right, somewhere in the ‘02 - ‘03 it really started getting out of hand. ‘04 - ‘05 it just got insane, from Fannie to the crappiest sub-prime.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by motepug
2007-02-03 07:17:07

Txchick posted a link to itulip.com, that marked the day, almost exactly in 1995 I think. It was the day the Federal Reserve dropped the bank reserve requirements to essentially zero.

That’s right, every dollar you deposit in a bank, can be lent out again. And again and again, at interest. In the “old days”, they had to keep 10 cents out of every dollar deposited, in reserve to protect against bank runs, and this kind of lending idiocy. It’s called infinite money (debt), and that’s what is coming home to roost now - all the yahoo’s who borrowed the money can’t pay it back. This includes the bankrupt US Govt.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by Binko
2007-02-02 15:40:34

You can’t give it away when you don’t own it.

Look Ma, we bought a house! Whoopie, we’re homeowners. But wait, Clem, you “bought” the house with a no down payment interest only loan with a piggyback loan to cover costs.

Not only do you not own ANY of the house. But you owe a bunch of money on top of not owning a house. Now the market drops 20% and if you want to “give it away” you have to bring tens of thousands of bucks to the table.

You see, you aren’t giving it away. What you are doing is clearing your debts. You didn’t own a house - instead you just piled up debt.

Strange how little stock phrases like “give it away” can so obscure reality.

Comment by nnvmtgbrkr
2007-02-02 16:43:29

Another thing I’ve often said is that “homeownership” is the most abused and misunderstood term out there today.

 
 
Comment by sfbayqt
2007-02-02 15:42:05

“Bayboro at 201 Fifth St. S is a conversion of a 37-year-old apartment building. Prices start as low as $132,000 for a studio. But downtown living can be attractive yet tight. Bayboro’s largest units are 740 square feet. The smallest units have kitchens barely large enough to open the cabinets, but even third-floor windows look onto Tampa Bay.”

That is just too pitiful. The 25 yr old who has one of the 400 sf units thinks he’s hit pay dirt because his note is the same as his friend’s rent. But what is the size of your friend’s apartment, dude? And, does he not know that conversions are merely painted over, bandaged up apartments that someone else is hoping is their cash cow?

BayQT~

Comment by say what
2007-02-02 15:57:33

What about tax, insurance, HOA fees?

Comment by veloblues
2007-02-02 16:05:15

Or when the hot water tank decides to unload it’s contents all over the floor? Me, I just call my landlord and make him deal with it…

Comment by tj & the bear
2007-02-02 18:04:27

Floor??? The common hot water tank likely has more capacity than his condo — he’ll drown for sure!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by veloblues
2007-02-02 18:38:17

LOL! ;-)

 
 
 
Comment by heloc_jock
2007-02-02 16:28:20

I’ve noticed a common trend on this site. People mention tax, insurance, and HOA fees as additional costs to owning. In the eternal question of “rent vs own”. But nobody ever mentions the positive of making principal payments towards your mortgage. I think of the principal payment portion of my mortgage as “taking money out of one pocket and putting it in the other pocket”. Is that wrong?

I know it’s small at the beginning of a 30-year mortgage (1.4% of the loan amt in the first year at 5.5%). But it’s not so insignifcant compared to insurance or HOA that it doesn’t belong in the equation.

Comment by Jerry from Richardson
2007-02-02 17:11:08

I think most people here will agree that buying a home is good when you pay a fair price and can afford it.

We are disgusted by the option-ARM, interest only, and liar’s loans. We are disgusted by 1500sf houses that cost $800K.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by Chip
2007-02-02 17:11:48

Jock — I think the reason that the slightly less than 1.4% principal reduction is not mentioned much is that it is — at this point in time — pretty insignificant when compared to the tremendous price fluctuations most on this board expect. Your point requires an assumption that prices will stay flat or rise indefinitely, which is not how most of us here think. If prices sank just 1.348% YOY, your equity began to go negative even after those 12 mortgage payments.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-02-02 17:43:45

Hey, heloc_jack, what percentage of the payment on an Interest Only mortgage goes towards principal? It’s not the people on this board that are thinking wrong. We realize you are a minority. Most of these dopes are going “IO” which is Latin for “none of my dough has to go towards the f—ing principal”.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by say what
2007-02-02 17:59:10

The reason why those are mentioned is that when a broker “qualifies” you for a mortage they often downplay or don’t mention those and often those are what break the camels back. Also if you can be forced to foreclose because of unpaid HOA fees it is pretty significant. In Tampa you have high taxes, high insurance and ridiclulous HOA fees. While your mortage payments might be in the same neighbourhood as what your renting friend might be paying your other fees can almost double your total housing expense.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by oxide
2007-02-03 04:57:49

Heloc jock, I’m gonna pile on because you deserve it.

NOBODY is making postive payments to principle. They put no money down, and took on an I/O mortgage for 5 years. That raised a real red flag for me, even before I got found this blog and educated myself. I said — How is this different from five years of RENT?

And I have to wonder about your user name…

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-02-02 17:38:28

Are you serious? They have 400 sf apartments in Tampa? That is insane. You have to admit that a big part of this real estate mania is that all the phonies want to think they live in L.A. or New York. They hear of us idiots in Manhattan that live in 400 square foot apartments and think it sounds glamorous. It sounds quaint. Little do they realize that it can be very challenging living in such small spaces. They also forget that there is a reason that we live in these tiny apartments. 1) Wages are very high. 2) There is a lot of stuff to do right outside of that apartment door. 3) We can walk everywhere so we don’t stay in our apartments as much as these people will. There is a tradeoff in New York that can actually make it worthwhile. Please help me if I’m wrong. I doubt you have that tradeoff in Tampa.

Oh, and by the way, Manhattan is not paradise. All of these wannabes need to quit letting movies and T.V. shape their view of the world.

Comment by tj & the bear
2007-02-02 18:08:46

Always amuses me how the TV shows (e.g., “Friends”) show young up-and-comers living in huge NYC apartments. I would imagine your reaction would be rather different. :-)

 
Comment by ft lauderdale
2007-02-03 05:25:45

no Tampa does not have the amenties that nyc does, now those of us in Florida do spend more time outside, but not enought to justify spending that much for someplace so small.

 
Comment by cyppok
2007-02-03 08:52:20

you are forgeting the wonderful subway smell in the summer. I’ll call it piss de jour. Also crime spikes are great as well when the recession visits the wonderful tri-state area. I still can’t believe people would pay 2k+ or 3k for a small apartment as rent and the amount of qualifiers you need to go through to get it is insane.

 
 
 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-02-02 16:13:57

“But that could all change with a wind pool expansion”

How much bigger can the Real Estate wind pool get?

This stuff is just so galling. How many of you have been to Myrtle Beach? It is redneck paradise. The gridlock on the main drag is awful and that’s not even during peak season.

We had a friend in town last week from North Carolina. Even she said how bad the real estate market was in Myrtle Beach. I was shocked. Her husband goes there for golf. How many f—ing golf destinations can one nation have?

All of these cities carve out a few golf courses and then they think they are Shangri-la. These golf communities are going to get killed in any economic downturn. They are living like this go-go bubble era will last forever. Wait until they have to fight tooth and nail to attract a shrinking pool of duffers that can afford to go there. That will be fun.

Comment by Jerry from Richardson
2007-02-02 17:35:22

This gogo bubble has been going on since 1997 with a break from late 2000 to early 2003 as we transitioned from the dotcom bubble to the RE/commodities bubble. I think the upcoming Tickle-Me-Elmo bubble will save us after the current bubble collapses.

Actually, the next bubble will be here:

http://tinyurl.com/3×5npo

It’s better than swampland in Florida

Comment by Neil
2007-02-02 21:38:06

Ya know, in 1929 there were a lot of new golf courses. ;)

Ok, not that bad this time (yea, I know other’s disagree). But these “golf vacations” are about to become less common. :(

Bummer I like to follow airlines. They’re going to hurt very soon. :(

Got popcorn?
Neil

 
 
Comment by hd74man
2007-02-03 05:20:55

These golf communities are going to get killed in any economic downturn

It’s gonna be nothing to the collapse of the ski industries especially here in th northeast.

At the moment it’s pretty much panic city, as the resorts and tourist bureaus issue all sorts of snow reports which would make Joe Gobbels smile.

Even The Alp based resorts in Europe are freakin’ out and going so far as to cover their glaciers with thermal blankets in the desperate hopes of prolonging the inevitable.

This of all those beaucoup $$$ ski condo’s goin’ in the crapper.

 
 
Comment by Arwen U.
2007-02-02 16:21:25

Oh we got trouble,
Right here in Carson City!
With a capital “T”
That rhymes with “B”
And that stands for Bubble!

Comment by Inspired
2007-02-02 21:24:50

I like Carson city..how low have prices fallen from the top?

 
 
Comment by Anon E. Moose
2007-02-02 16:24:06

“said Alan Hummel, senior VP of one of the largest property valuation firms in the country. ‘You’ve got a situation where sales are down so everybody in the deal needs it to go through’ at the contract price - the mortgage broker, the Realtor, the lender, and even individual sellers.”

Umm, excuse me Mr. Hummel, but in that laundry list of interested parties you forgot to mention the buyer. Isn’t the buyer the one sticking his neck (wallet) out to purchase the property? Isn’t the buyer the one who is paying for an honest and profession opinion of the market value of the parcel in question? You know, the person who’s paying for your services?

You also forgot the lender, and I mean the real party buying these nuclear waste MBS, not the mortgage broker or even the originator. Aren’t they counting on the valuation of the property to protect their investment, otherwise they’d be charging credit-card interest rates?

Nope, I was afraid not.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-02-02 19:55:12

Yes isn’t it interesting how Mr. Hummel never mentioned the most vunerable parties ,which are the buyers and the MBS bagholders regarding a loan . See this is why I do not believe for one minute that the secondary market investors knew the risk rate on loans they were buying . Your point is well taken by your statement that the secondary would of gone for credit card interest rates if they were looking for loans not backed by true equity or assets like real estate.
The new BK laws would explain why banks would be a little loose on the credit cards ,(which I don’t agree with either ).

Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-02-02 20:14:55

My theory is that the secondary market had a high demand for investments and the loan originators had realtionships developed and when the switch came ,where borrowers could just not afford to keep up with the market increases ,the front liners (parties that deal with borrowers directly) just started doing whatever it would take to get a loan by . Lets face it , Casey Serin had no problem what-so ever getting his 8 bogus loans ,plus cash back from the sellers .

By late 2003 the market was in full swing mania mode . Usually borrowers would of been turned down on loans ,demand would of gone down ,and sellers would not of been able to put out any price they wanted . Areas like Florida and Arizona going up 40% in one year (2005) is just crazy . Areas are never so underpriced that they would go up 40% in one year .

This leads me to believe that lenders in the future will put caps on how much appreciation they will allow in one year ,so they will make the borrower put more down in areas that exceed normal appreciation for a area .

 
 
 
Comment by Louie Louie
2007-02-02 16:24:24

“Consider that homes cost an average of $199,000 in 2002, and that now, just over four years later, they’re well over $300,000, well out of reach for many of the residents of Carson City.”

Heck even 2002 prices of $199K is too much. I know several tech workers from Silicon Valley picking vacation property for cash from their Stock Options in 1999-2000. The Bubble started way before 2002 in Northern California.

Comment by Louie Louie
2007-02-02 16:29:17

needed to add …As I recall around 1996-97 Reno prices were rock bottom around $150K or so. ~ around $65-75 per sq ft or so…
Custom built Mansions (BIG) in Redding were around $300K!! Mainly uber rich vacationeers! This will unwind!

Comment by Reno Girl
2007-02-02 16:44:58

In 99-2000 I could have bought one of the builders top models for $180K. The same house in that development is now probably going for at least between 375-400K. Move along…no bubble here!!

Comment by Louie Louie
2007-02-02 16:52:54

Right on Reno Girl! 375-400K and no buyers at that prices…
drop it back to 215-225K may make more sense. (Calc: your price of 180K in 1999 adjusted for inflation). I cant imagine more that!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Jerry from Richardson
2007-02-02 17:24:11

How about depreciation for wear and tear on the house?

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Dan
2007-02-02 16:31:52

Seems like the news story about Seattle housing has found it’s way over to a Seattle Realtor’s blog on Active Rain.

http://activerain.com/blogsview/40987/Fact-vs-Fear-Maintaining

And, as luck would have it, one of the people quoted in the story commented on his blog. LOL

Comment by BanteringBear
2007-02-02 20:17:43

That guy has the full on Kool Aid IV going. What a joke. How many times is someone going to pull out the “It’s different here” argument? I really think Seattle has some of the worst realtors in the country. I wouldn’t mind seeing a few of them pushing shopping carts down by Ivars in the next few years. I might throw them a french fry. On second thought, it’s much more enjoyable to feed the seagulls.

 
 
Comment by Chip
2007-02-02 16:36:20

“Even sellers offering free homeowners association dues for a year can’t sell because there are other condos for sale priced $20,000 below the market price…”

As the regulars here routinely note, the “other” condos are not being offered at $20K below market price. If those are fortunate enough to sell, they ARE the market price.

Comment by oxide
2007-02-03 05:05:26

A year of HOA fees. How generous of them. A year of HOA fees is, what, $4000 at most? Why would I tie myself to a 30-year loan (and another 29 years of HOA fees) for a paltry $4000? Compared to the price, $4000 is NOT a lot of money. And if I was poor enough that $4000 WAS a lot of money to me, then I I have no business buying. These people think we just fell off the turnip truck.

 
 
 
Comment by flat
2007-02-02 17:58:22

wow list-it monday
Super Bowl will be over
anyone have a number for RE price loss since the” Suzanne researched it” ad ?

 
Comment by WT Economist
2007-02-02 18:46:12

“The vast majority of appraisers resist the pressure they receive - from any source - and simply refuse to submit valuations they know to be inflated.”

Perhaps, but do such appraisers do the majority of the appraisals? Or do the sleazy minority get the business?

Comment by hd74man
2007-02-03 05:23:42

“The vast majority of appraisers resist the pressure they receive - from any source - and simply refuse to submit valuations they know to be inflated.”

LMAO…Pure rubbish.

The sleaze bag number punchers have been runnin’ the show since the licensing boards put hordes of marginally trained and educated morons out on the street in ‘92/’93.

 
 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-02-02 20:23:59

Right WT Economist . Notice how members of the REIC are going on the defense now that a rising market can’t cover the sins .I wonder if the real estate industry will come up with the “mania market defense” ,or the “everyone was doing it “defense .

 
Comment by hd74man
2007-02-03 05:04:32

“With home prices softening and sales volumes sagging in many local markets, real estate appraisers say that pressure on them to inflate values has reached pandemic proportions. A new survey of the national appraisal industry found that 90 percent of appraisers reported that mortgage brokers, realty agents, lenders and even consumers have pressured them to raise property valuations to enable deals to go through.”

LMFAO…

Oh, you can be sure all the state licensing mills have put out plenty of high school educated hacks who are only too willing to do the bidding of the mortgage sleazebags in order to keep from starving to death.

Need the right number?

Just go shopping. It’s like findin’ a drug dealer for your fix. He’s on every streetcorner.

Appraisal fraud will continue to expand and florish as the final bastions of the honest and ethical appraisers are wiped out.

Comment by scdave
2007-02-03 07:51:43

HD is correct IMO……

 
 
Name (required)
E-mail (required - never shown publicly)
URI
Your Comment (smaller size | larger size)
You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

Trackback responses to this post