“Reality May Be Setting In”: Las Vegas
The Review Journal reports from Nevada. “The only thing missing from real estate consultant Steve Bottfeld’s presentation Thursday at Crystal Ball 2007 was his cheerleader outfit. ‘I don’t care what anyone says, prices in Las Vegas will continue to rise,’ Bottfeld told 1,100 real estate professionals.”
“Larry Murphy of SalesTraq said a ’scary stat’ is that 44 percent of the 20,000 listings in Las Vegas are vacant homes. ‘Who lists a vacant home? Predominantly investors,’ he said. ‘That’s one thing that’s going to moderate real estate prices this year. Without these vacant investor homes, prices would be through the roof again.’”
“Bottfeld said none of the naysayers are talking about the vertical market in Las Vegas, some 23,000 high-rise condo units that are going to redefine the market. ‘We’re creating this atmosphere of fear from nonsense, from negative national press,’ he said.”
“‘What happened is we started the transition from a suburban market to an urban market and with transition, certain things happen. Twenty percent of all Vegas home sales go to investors and second-home buyers, which are one in the same. I don’t separate them. In the last two months, investors have fled from resale (homes) to vertical. The sky is not falling,’ he said.”
In Business Las Vegas. “The demand for land has softened in the Las Vegas Valley as property owners continue to hold out for prices that speculators and developers, especially homebuilders, are finding less and less palatable.”
“That’s the assessment of Brian Gordon and Jeremy Aguero, principals of Applied Analysis who this week released the latest figures on land transactions. Demand dropped sharply in the fourth quarter, down nearly 68 percent from the same period in 2005 and off 33 percent from July through September of this year.”
“Sellers aren’t getting the prices that they believed they would get six to 12 months ago, Gordon said. Anyone who bought property recently isn’t willing to cut prices to take a loss, but property owners who have a lot less invested have been unwilling to cut prices even though they could do so.”
“‘We see a similar concept in the resale home market where home sellers are unwilling to cut prices and buyers are unwilling to pay premiums at the moment,’ Gordon said. ‘Over time, that should correct itself.’”
“Several land owners have been seeking high density valuation for their properties, many of which are no longer feasible because only so many mid-rise and high-rise projects can be built, Gordon said. But he added that ‘reality may be setting in for many of them’ over what they can charge.”
“Metrostudy’s Las Vegas division reported that vacant developed lot inventory remained abundant. At the end of 2006, there were 34,066 vacant developed lots, an increase of 11.7 percent compared to 2005.”
“‘In the face of reduced demand at current price points, builders have pulled back on production in an effort to move units off their balance sheets,’ said Metrostudy’s Josh Seime. ‘In order to expand margins from current levels, market strategies will need to evolve to reflect market conditions.’”
“Centex Homes, a national homebuilder which last week announced its first-ever quarterly loss, has pulled out of its deal to build a 2,200-acre master-planned community in Henderson.”
“In early January Centex sent LandWell a letter terminating its agreement, but left the door open to a deal with a reduction in pricing. Now, the door has been closed completely.”
“‘Given overall market conditions, Centex Homes recently made a decision not to move forward with its involvement in the LandWell project,” said Caroline Doyle, Centex VP, in a statement. ‘We made a business decision to redeploy our capital to support other projects that will produce better results in the near-term.’”
“With its financial difficulty, Centex announced last week its plans to cut 13 percent of its homebuilding workforce to improve its balance sheets. The company had already reduced staff 17 percent through the end of December, including staffing in Las Vegas.”
“In September, Centex announced it had dropped land options in Las Vegas and in October Centex Destination Properties pulled the plug on a $1.5 billion, 2,400-condominium project south of the Las Vegas Strip.”
“Centex has more than a three-year supply of land, even after the company walked away from 40 percent of its options nationwide, the company announced last week. It planned to decline options on another 40 percent in the first three months of this year.”
“Mark Paris, the CEO of LandWell Co. declined to say how much money Centex forfeited by pulling out of the land deal. The company also contributed money to the planning process, he said.”
“For residents of the $350 million, 45-story Sky Las Vegas condo tower set to open this spring, a dark shadow is looming on the horizon”
“To the disbelief of many owners of the 409-unit luxury high rise on the Las Vegas Strip, the Clark County Planning Commission has given its blessing for the Maxim 300-room hotel and casino and 1,860 condominium units just south of Sky Las Vegas.”
“‘It looks like a wall of towers,’ said Bruce Hiatt, a broker who along with more than 34 clients bought a condo at Sky. ‘My clients are outraged, and they are sending letters left and right (to commissioners) protesting this and demanding a public hearing and sitting down and talking because it’s almost like putting a wall in your face.’”
“The Sky Las Vegas condos are priced between $700,000 to in excess of $4 million. More than 50 units remain for sale.”
“Hiatt said owners who paid $1 million or more for a condo in the corner that has a southern view of the Strip will apparently have those Times Square-like views blocked. It also appears the Maxim project will take away sunlight from the tower and pool, residents said.”
“Chris Kaempfer, whose firm seeks entitlements for Las Vegas Valley projects, including Sky Las Vegas, said views, shadows and sunlight aren’t protected and said that it’s considered an inescapable consequence of growth. ‘Clark County commissioners have taken the position that views, especially on the Las Vegas Strip, are not a protectable interest,’ Kaempfer said.”
“Avis and Elliot Titcher of Philadelphia, who plan to use their condo as a second home, said they chose their unit for its views of the Strip and mountains. ‘Since our unit would be overlooking Maxim, it is a real possibility we would have to keep our shades drawn as people could look into our apartment,’ the Titchers wrote. ‘That is totally unacceptable.’”
“The only thing missing from real estate consultant Steve Bottfeld’s presentation Thursday at Crystal Ball 2007 was his cheerleader outfit. ‘I don’t care what anyone says, prices in Las Vegas will continue to rise,’ Bottfeld told 1,100 real estate professionals.”
Huh? Las Vegas? He’s been drinking that Kool-Aid! It’s reported in all the top financial publications that Vegas prices are predicted to fall the most in 2007 of all the hot real estate markets, like 8% at a minimum this year!
“I don’t care what anyone says”
or what the numbers and facts say. I’m putting my fingers in my ears and curling up in my little safety ball. LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA, I CAN’T HEAR YOU!
Prices are going up… yes, tell that to someone currently trying to sell a house. Or to the owners of the existing 23,000 condos that aren’t selling.
“Bottfeld said none of the naysayers are talking about the vertical market in Las Vegas, some 23,000 high-rise condo units that are going to redefine the market.
It doesn’t matter if you build up, down, out, in, over or around, you’re still adding 23,000 units to an allready swollen and overpriced market. This guy “redfining” the market is just like the story the other day about them “creating a market”. This market is about to roll off of a hill and no amount of manipulation or denial is going to stop that.
Exactly,” the market is going vertical “…Vertical meaning, up ,and what’s that other word?…….Oh, yeah, Down.
“‘In the face of reduced demand at current price points, builders have pulled back on production in an effort to move units off their balance sheets,’ said Metrostudy’s Josh Seime. ‘In order to expand margins from current levels, market strategies will need to evolve to reflect market conditions.’
It’s a widely held belief that big builders, publicly traded, will fare much better than smaller builders through this slump. I question that belief. Large builders either build a lot or fold up/get bought out. They are being forced to pull back. Small builders on the other hand can eliminate staff and then focus on remodels, small projects. I agree many small builders will fold but the real carnage will be in the large builder space…
What about the lending portion of the large builders, is there data on how exposed they are to the subprime implosion & foreclosures?
Most of the big builders sold off their subprime loans/units already. They knew they were holding a bag of smelly manure so they passed it off to some braindead schmucks.
‘I don’t care what anyone says, prices in Las Vegas will continue to rise,’ Bottfeld told 1,100 real estate professionals.”
Man, the kool-aid concession must have really done a “land office” business at that meeting!
Think he’d qualify for the title “Mr. Kool-Aid man”?
ummmm urban Lost Wages where everyoen of you nieghbors wants to stasy high and cheat on their spouse- wow that’s for me -
There are more people who fit that description than you would ever imagine.
Are they currently moving to LV or leaving LV?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leaving_Las_Vegas
I posted in “Observations” today that I am living in a 12 home cul de sac in west vegas and 2-3 homes are vacant (I think 1 is foreclosed on and the others are builder specs not sold yet and 4 have 4-sale signs in front of them. Here is the dynamic I have noticed in the 3 months I have lived here. Yes the population of vegas is growing rapidly, however this is the most blue collar, uneducated, unskilled town I have ever lived in. THERE IS NO REAL MONEY HERE! I came here from So.Cal where there at least are some very educated and skilled people and several major industries. The only real industry here is tourism and gambling(besides real estate). Then there are alot of retirees here but most of the retirees in Vegas are not really upscale affluent ones, really why would you retire in Vegas if you had any class? If you drive one block from where I live there are at least 100 illegal immigrants standing in the parking lot waiting for day labor every day.
So you MUST make the conclusion that the only thing driving prices in Vegas are speculators, and that is over now. How can this market not go down? alot.
I have a cousin who’s involved in construction in Vegas. A year ago he told me he was thinking of buying a house for 2.4 mill, BUT it was a deal because his budy who owned it told him it was worth 3.2 mill. I was staggered by this. 2.4 million? In Vegas? Well, it does have six garages! I literally had no response. I recall thinking a few hours later that it could only mean that the Vegas market was about to go in the toilet.
I don’t know if he’s representative of the person who’s recently moved there, but he owns 6 widescreen TVs (one in his hot tub) and a massive SUV and a pit bull and… well, he’s not my favorite cousin.
As a side note, I noticed that he recently waded into a business that sells face and hand creams to adolescents. Maybe he’s noticed his revenues are dropping a bit.
Actually, a Libertarian utopia such as Nevada, where, outside of Vegas and Reno, brothels are legal, and where in the entire state there are no income taxes makes the sand and high temperatures attractive to single guys such as myself. I don’t care much for gambling, but as a red-blooded male, I don’t mind “gamboling.” Still, I would not want to spend more than $300,000 on RE in Vegas. I found a nice condo on Realtor.com that has 24/7 guard and is gated there for the mid $200s. I’ll wait a few years though. Nevada and New Hampshire are my real estate interests for the future. Both libertarian places.
Virgina will be ok when we throw out the govn- I’ll admit NH,NV are very good
state w low taxes and no unions kick as……s
Yeah, dont get me wrong, Vegas is fun for a while but I dont think I will ever buy property here. I sold a home in LA 3 years ago and thought I would buy a home in Vegas in a year or 2. But after being back here (I graduated from UNLV 15 years ago, and how this town has changed!) I cant see the value in buying a home here. I think I will invest my money somewhere else and just rent here for 4-5 years till I leave.
We have low taxes–and crappy roads, schools, some of the worst paid teachers in the country, not enough cops. The list goes on and on. I’d gladly pay state tax if it meant my kids could have decent schools.
How come you don’t move if Vegas is so bad? I don’t get people who keep complaining about the “hellhole” they live in, but won’t pack up and move.
I agree jerry. If a place is so distasteful….leave. I could not for the life of me, live in a place that reduced my quality of life. There are many things I dislike about Atlanta…but all in all, its still a much better place to live than Iraq. Maybe I just love the US too much and realize that I could be living in a true hell hole on the other side of the globe.
I’m working on it.
Also, most of my family, and my husband’s entire family live here. And my husband has worked as a craps dealer his entire adult life. So there are considerations other than the tax break.
I’m not sure if you were actually looking for an answer or if that was a rhetorical question.
Also, I didn’t call it a “hellhole.” I said I’d gladly pay higher taxes to make it better.
“I said I’d gladly pay higher taxes to make it better.”
And that’s what has me worried about if I decide to move to Nevada. Lots of Californians used to cradle to grave security and other socialist entitlements want to rob Peter to pay for more government programs. As if somehow government schools are better run than private schools. There are a great deal of single taxpayers out there. Without single taxpayers such as myself, you families would be stealing from each other to pay for each other’s education. In other words, it won’t work. That’s the real story. People want to rob others to pay for their lifestyles.
Do not spoil Nevada. Move to California. It’s a nanny state and that’s what you want. Education is supposed to be better there.
Or at least seek private schools and stop trying to steal from childless taxpayers to pay for your children’s education.
I don’t mean to be mean or disparaging, but I’m callling a spade a spade.
Shaunta is wrong; teachers and cops are way overpaid compared to others in the LV Valley. The schools are bad because of the kids, and the kids are bad because of the parents. NV isn’t libertarian anymore because of the welfare statist refugees from Cali, who ruined SoCal and are doing the same in Vegas. Witness the recent smoking ban, reelection of the little creep Harry Reid and the crook Oscar Goldman.
I may as well buy RE in Alaska - ever hear of Curry? It’s a whistle stop between Anchorage and Denali. Alaskans are ultimate libertarians (except for their politico who persuaded pork barrel politics and the rest of congress to build the famed “road to nowhere.” Alas, I’m not “tough” enough to stand Alaskan winters, which are 9 months long! Californians: leave your politics behind. Expect to be responsible for your own actions. Fund your own programs. Don’t vote for politicians or referendums that take money from productive people who are in the low/no tax areas FOR A REASON!!!!!!
I have kids in the Las Vegas school system. So by your weird logic, I’m a bad parent who has raised bad kids?
Apparently having the 49th lowest per-student spending on education hasn’t had an effect on the sad state of the Clark County school system, which is the 47th worst in the country?
The argument that single people shouldn’t have to contribute to society (and that is what contributing to education is) is just ridiculous. You aren’t an island dude, some day the children that you help educate with your tax dollars will be running the world.
I want my state, the state my children were born in, the one I grew up in, to do better. Unfortunately, the greed here has reached a tipping point and it’s not a nice place to live anymore. That makes me sad, because once upon a time I loved it here.
The problem with conservatives is that the people who don’t benefit from their help-the-rich programs don’t count.
This thread has officially made me sick. I’m out.
Read what you wrote. It’s very telling.
“The argument that single people shouldn’t have to contribute to society (and that is what contributing to education is) is just ridiculous. You aren’t an island dude, ”
So we single people should be happy to be sacrificial animals to you who have children, right?
Shaunta’s greed for other people’s money is shameless.
Bill, you’re a moron… but, when you’re old and sick, we’ll see how you feel about the “moral hazard” of having your health insurance costs lowered by being pooled with the young and healthy (and omg, non-smokers).
Btw, I love how people like you whine about having to pay for schools and fire engines and police for other people, but have no problem spending big bucks of other people’s money for roads. We don’t need roads. We could do just fine with bicycles, foot traffic, and trolleys. (Rail ROW’s are much, MUCH cheaper than 6-lane highways and all the feeder routes to go with it.) Heck, everyone would get more exercize, learn some real “self-reliance”, and our medical insurance rates would go down. But I don’t see you offering to pay for the true costs of your transportation, now do I? Yes, taxes are all well and good when they pay for your wants, but evil when they pay for the rest of society’s needs. (And yes, if you want to keep the economic engine of the USA going, education IS a need–why do you think the landed class instituted public schools for the working class in the first place?)
One more thing, before you start calling public transit a government subsidy, let’s have a short history lesson. Before the US government started paying assloads of money to build national roads, the traction companies made HUGE, consistent profits. They were considered “widow’s stocks” for their reliable dividends. It was overzealous anti-monopoly laws (just slightly overzealous, as their hearts were in the right place), overly restrictive city fare regulations combined with Depression era drops in demand, and of course the GM/SO/Goodyear “City Lines” fraud (for which GM was convicted but never forced to pay restitution or basically make good in any way) which destroyed the profitability of public transit … just in time for Eisenhower to engage in a multi-billion dollar American Autobahn project which destroyed the interurbans and the passenger railroad service as well (except in certain markets, where it is still profitable).
Providing two parallel transportation networks, or three: roads, air (heavily subsidized by gov’t–always), and rail, is very costly for governments and reduces the potential for cost-effectiveness on all three. All gov’t’s in the world have this problem, though most have looked at the economics of the three and put more of their subsidy dollar into passenger rail as it is by FAR AND AWAY the most cost effective. As a bonus, it’s the best for the environment as well, quiet, clean, comfortable, with a small footprint.
Some right-wing nutjobs have even gotten on the rail bandwagon because of its cost-effectiveness, esp. commuter rail.
PPS, if you live in Phoenix, the whole country is supporting your electric and water consumption. Sure, tell me you could live like a Pima in the AZ desert … while I LMAO.
Beautifully said.
I don’t mind paying for police and firefighters. They work for me anyway. I would prefer to get those through my own insurance, which I PAY, and would be glad to pay extra for privatizing those traditional government services.
As for roads - privatize them - make them paid by those who use them only. Why should Manhattan residents who never drive have to pay for the interstate highway system? It’s beyond me.
I PAY FOR ALL MY HEALTH INSURANCE. I get all my value out of it. I’M A NON-SMOKER and extremely fit for a 47 year-old - exercised regularly for almost 31 years.
As for light rail or any other rail system, if it has to involve eminent domain, I’m AGAINST it. If it can be provided by user fees, I’m for it. I want to get every instance of Leninism out of our psyche - that is: “From each according to his ability to each according to his need.” To the extent that it’s practiced, all incentive to produce and innovate is gone.
I have one sister who, amazingly, agreed with that Lenin quote, thinking that my other two sisters and I, without children, should somehow financially help her out. At the same time, she votes Republican. And she is really a true GWB-style Repub - very religious but hates free enterprise. ’nuff said.
“Nevada and New Hampshire are my real estate interests for the future. Both libertarian places.”
Nevadans just past a statewide smoking ban in restaurants and bars, not a very libertarian thing to do. It appears that the Californication of Nevada is in full swing.
Wow, does that ban apply to the casinos too? I find the foul air disgusting personally.
It only applies to the restaurants in the casinos, not the casino floors.
“I have a cousin who’s involved in construction in Vegas…he owns 6 widescreen TVs (one in his hot tub) and a massive SUV”
I can see why he’s spending so freely…with a stable job like construction, he should easily be able to maintain that lifestyle. There is no way that construction in Vegas will tank, correct?
Savings and investments are for chumps. His house is his savings…
Lionel, I don’t believe you. I think you made up this so-called “cousin in Vegas”. You had me until you got to the pit bull part. The face cream business killed it.
Honestly, if he really does exist, he is not a person. He is a cartoon.
It wasn’t “face” cream per se. It was “bust must plus”. And he has a time machine for making steady money at the sports book.
The funny thing is he very much looks like a cartoon, about five feet wide and five feet tall. Could bench press the entire state of Nevada. I had another cousin out visiting him a few months ago (I won’t visit, can’t stand the place) and she claimed he was kissing his biceps while they were out drinking. He’s actually a pretty sweet soul, for whatever reason he just has to impress with the giant house and muscles and car, etc. Very much an exterior life.
Your comment made me laugh BTW. Living in LA it’s nearly impossible to tell truth from fiction. I had a guy sit next to me at a coffee joint the other day and claimed he was kicked out of his house by his girlfriend because she just discovered he was an ultimate fighter. I gave him a cookie and told him I didn’t believe him. But… it’s LA, so who the hell knows?
Your comment made me laugh BTW
I’m glad you didn’t take offense. FWIW, my cousins cover all territory from a Ph.D. who got face time on McNeil-Lehrer to a cousin’s son who just served a stretch in the county slam.
That’s just how families be.
Then there are alot of retirees here but most of the retirees in Vegas are not really upscale affluent ones, really why would you retire in Vegas if you had any class?
ha ha I guess Avis and Elliot missed the memo -
From the article -
“Avis and Elliot Titcher of Philadelphia, who plan to use their condo as a second home, said they chose their unit for its views of the Strip and mountains…”
Ha, ha
I hate to jump to conclusions but “Avis and Elliott?”, case closed!
“‘It looks like a wall of towers,’ ‘My clients are outraged, and they are sending letters left and right (to commissioners) protesting this and demanding a public hearing and sitting down and talking because it’s almost like putting a wall in your face.’”
“Hiatt said owners who paid $1 million or more for a condo in the corner that has a southern view of the Strip will apparently have those Times Square-like views blocked. It also appears the Maxim project will take away sunlight from the tower and pool, residents said.”
“‘It looks like a wall of towers,’ said Bruce Hiat
Is this the urban, vertical allure Bottfelds’ is talking about? I mean get real people, you bought in a high rise on the Vegas strip. Did you think they were done building after you moved in?
You’d be surprised at how often this happens and all the recent buyers are completely shocked to find out that there’s nothing they can do to protect their views. This happens in SD, SF, Seattle, etc. If you’re going to spend that kind of $$ on a place, especially because of views, then you really need to be aware of future development plans around you.
These people were just complete idiots, plain and simple.
If you’re going to spend that kind of $$ on a place, especially because of views, then you really need to be aware of future development plans around you.
These people were just complete idiots, plain and simple.
Exactly. Unless you have waterfront property or overlook park land, someone else can always build in your view. Fools and their views are soon parted.
Reality In Las Vegas…
Can’t be having that. Nope. Bad for business.
‘That’s one thing that’s going to moderate real estate prices this year. Without these vacant investor homes, prices would be through the roof again.’
Without the warming influence of the sun, the earth’s surface would be much cooler.
“Grasshopper to Master” - Master how is it you are so wise?
that moron doesn’t realize that because of those investors prices went through the roof.
his prognosications and pontifications are more wishing speech than anything else.
I don’t think that most people realize that Las Vegas is not a very nice place to live. The people are real nasty; the roads are full of drunks, and road construction. Most vices are legal, and enforcement of everything lax. The schools are sub-par and the district includes the entire county. You can buy in an expensive neighborhood, and wind up in a ghetto school. Finally, home prices, although moderating, are way out of line with household incomes. No more fancy financing and no more home sales.
Man you nailed it! SEE MY POST ABOVE. I lived in Vegas in the late 80’s to early 90’s and it wasnt that bad. It was what it was, a much smaller town, easy to get around, just fun and thats all it was supposed to be. Now they are trying to make it into a huge bedroom community, albeit with NO ZONING, NO RESTRICTIONS, POOR PLANNING. Vegas went from a great place to spend a few days to a mini LA without the pluses of SoCal.-ie great weather, culture etc. And the reason for the less than “quality people” is that now every marginal, lowlife moves here looking to make it big.
Yes, I lived here in the late 80s and early 90s, and then was transferred out, back in 2005. The town is a lot different. I lived at the Lakes, now Summerlin. Now you can her gunshots at night. The city has really changed for the worse. I had no idea things had deteriorated so far.
In the NW there is a community that is about half built, vacant lots since 2005, vacant houses with for sale and for rent signs. It is a ghost town. The last home was built in 2005, and the builder is still trying to sell the last of the inventory in competition with some early buyers.
Lots of homes are for rent here, keeping the rental rate low; less than half the cost of buying.
Section 8 housing vouchers put undesirables in even the best neighborhoods. That’s how they can afford to live there; it’s not their money, but the people’s who neighborhood they’re ruining. Unless people enjoy loud bass thumping coming from cars with open windows and grafitti.
Loud bass thumping from cars? I hardly think that’s unique to poor people. I hear it all the time emanating from the expensive cars of spoiled rich teenagers here in Newport Beach.
That’s funny… where I’m living almost everyone in Section 8 lives in special Section 8 housing, which consists of privately built apartments (they get HUD kickbacks or something) and some attached housing projects with clotheslines outside built by the city. They’re decent housing, but very, very plain and small. They certainly don’t put up mothers on Section 8 in SFH’s in the “nice” (=two income white) part of town.
There are some “baby’s mommas” receiving child support who don’t live in the projects, but AFAIS they live in apartments here, though there are sometimes whole houses for rent. Wages are low, so on child support, you probably couldn’t rent a whole 2/2 or 3/2 home. (We’re talking modest concrete block construction.) I met a woman who was getting $800/mo. child support and rented a $600/mo one bedroom apt. A house here is more like $1100. Btw, this woman was a ho who didn’t know the value of a dollar… I kind of wished the “baby’s daddy” would wise up and sue for custody. The problem is that childcare often costs as much as child support anyway, and then you’d have to deal with throwup, bed wetting, and diaper changes. A lot of males are never prepared for these things so they’re irrationally in fear of them and will let their kids stay with a horrible woman. Also, the law here is very biased towards mothers, no matter how awful they are. Unless you’re a lesbian, or you use your kid in the commission of a crime, like the woman who sent her three-year-old through a window to unlock a door from the inside in a robbery, you’ll probably keep your kids in FL. Actually, the robberess might get custody back as soon as she’s out of jail, knowing this place.
Section 8 vouchers can be given to any landlord. Maybe you described public housing, which is different, but equally expensive to taxpayers.
As somebody who grew up in Maryland where the schools are run by the county governments, I’d say that the itsy bitsy school districts the are prevelant in much of the country seem strange and inefficient.
I finished high school in Montgy County. It sucked. Oh, they went on about how great they were, but there were huge inequalities in courses offered and quality of education depending on where you lived. The only thing different from smaller districts is that they had a genius bussing system that took white kids from good neighborhoods into magnet schools into minority neighborhoods while denying minority kids entrance into the magnet programs because that would “decrease diversity”. Meanwhile, the best schools in the white (and asian) neighborhoods did not have magnet programs, which were the only bussing program, so the richies didn’t have to have the rabble coming to their door. It was possibly the most brilliant system for racist control I have ever seen … and nobody even blew the whistle until they told a Vietnamese family that they weren’t allowed to put their (asian, minority) child into the French immersion program.
I think smaller districts would be great if the state gov’t directed aid to the poorest/worst performing districts. With county, the rich people get to grab everything, and the average performance hides the rot on the state level. It’s all horribly corrupt and disgusting … and you wonder why the youth listen to gangster rap?
I don’t think many of these people care. A lot of the folks buying in these towers just use their places as second or third homes, and have no plans whatsoever to send kids to the local school.
“Without these vacant investor homes, prices would be through the roof again.’”
He should just follow DL’s lead…cross your fingers and toes. Ruby slippers optional.
So this 44% of listings is probably investors?? Absolutely terrifying. There’s no way “real demand” is going to absorb all those empty houses.
And in Phoenix, we’re near 50% vacancy on resales. I’m sure California and Florida are fairly close as well.
But don’t worry, the spring bounce will save us all…
“…would leave the residents in the dark and without the mountain and Strip views they expect. ”
Over time, it should be expected that the views will be obscured. But this is a bit sudden.
Boy, I’ve seen this in the few place I’ve lived recently:
- Lake Tahoe where people need to build their huge trophy homes and block views of the lake for the other long-time residents. Lake views generally add a $50-$100,000 premium to the price of a home, so these people were riled for a few reasons.
- Here in Bellingham where condos are going up in front of one another that were touted a few years back as having views of the bay. Well, no more. Now you’ll get to look at your neighbors’ mountain bikes or grills on their porches.
- In other places I’ve lived I’ve seen farmland turns into strip malls or tract housing overnight.
But in Vegas?
So how is the condo market doing in bellingham, I heard awhile back it did not start out so well.
I’ve heard the condo market is quite soft here. But they are still building non-stop in Fairhaven and downtown. I did hear the planned 23-storey tower has been scaled back to 17-storeys, if not fewer. This is fine by me. Some of the condos appear to be turning to rental units.
Of the few realtors I know, they are hurting for business. There’s a glut of $500-$750,000 homes on the market, as well as the $250+ condos. Lots of sellers and not too many buyers. But the older, lower-priced houses (like mine) are still in demand, as most of the building is either shoddy pig snouts, or higher end stuff (which is falling off in demand).
“Sellers aren’t getting the prices that they believed they would get six to 12 months ago, Gordon said. Anyone who bought property recently isn’t willing to cut prices to take a loss, but property owners who have a lot less invested have been unwilling to cut prices even though they could do so.”
They are waiting for the “rebound” that everyone is hoping for.
“Twenty percent of all Vegas home sales go to investors and second-home buyers, which are one in the same. I don’t separate them.”
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Of course you don’t separate them. That way you can conveniently ignore those who bought anywhere from 3 to 15 “investment” houses.
Let’s see, second home buyers get homes to live in for part of the year. Investors buy homes to flip. The former group buys a home to live in for years, the latter buys to quickly sell for a profit (i.e. the house will be back in the RE inventory figures within months).
I don’t see the difference.
Because of this non-stop building ,losing views is one more thing the home buyer has to worry about . Sure builders and sellers love to sell the “views ” but how long do you get to keep those views with all this building going on ? This is another areas were a buyer has to do alot of research before paying for a view .
“What happened is we started the transition from a suburban market to an urban market and with transition, certain things happen.” said bottfeld.
WHAT ‘certain things’?? certain things that you don’t want to talk about?
you’d probably tell us if they were ‘certain things’ that you thought were good, right?
I think it’s misleading to say the median house price in Vegas hasn’t gone down. It’s only the houses that sell that are counted, right? (I might be wrong. Do they count the sold houses, or the ones for sale?) So all it means is that only the expensive houses are selling.
The Review-Journal NEVER acknowledges the incentives. They must be entirely funded by the real estate market.
They also never say anything about the fact that Global Warming will hit Vegas hard. It’s already hotter here than it was when I moved here in 1986. It’s February and next week we’ll have weather in the 70s with lows in the 40s. I used to have to wait until the end of March for last frost. I guess not anymore.
Underneath the glitz, Vegas is the desert. I believe that when the rest of the country’s prices get under control, a lot of the people who moved here in the last few years will want to go home.
It really pisses me off when they point to the new casinos and say that our housing market will hold up because of so many new jobs. Casino employees can not afford $300,000 homes. Trust me.
That was my point exactly in my post above-Vegas is an economy based on service employees-meaning waiters, waitresses, maids, cooks. Yes there are some higher paid manager types but most of the Vegas residents are very blue collar, lower middle class types with incomes to match. That being said I heard a few radio ads for ultra low teaser mortgage rates still-when will it end. Also does any one know what a Vincent rate or Vincent mortgage is? That was one of the ones I heard advertised today, never heard of it. Also I was in LA on business this week and I heard a radio ad saying you could get a 1 million dollar mortgage for 200 dollars a month-what?
I’m reminded of other laughably transparent scams, such as “Teach Yourself C++ in 24 hours!”
Really though, Los Angeles is also filled with lower-middle-class service economy types. Buying a MacBook and spending your weekends at a coffeeshop “working on your screenplay” doesn’t improve your economic standing, it just makes you look like a tool. And if our underclass can qualify for $600k, $700k, $800k mortgages, so can the ones in Las Vegas. It’s like a merry-go-ground - you have to get on the ride!
Global warming is just a religion for the gullible.
This is a reality setting in thread. Many mountain tops that used to have glaciers are now nearly exposed, to be fully exposed soon. Larger ice sheets than ever before recorded are breaking off the polar caps. Polar bears are wondering zombies during the hybernation times and mostly swimming the rest of the time.
This will have a huge pull on housing markets very soon. Low lying coastal areas may see demands changed greatly. Energy wasting designs have absolutely no way of competing against the high ROI green building methods that will even at reduced rates of construction quickly replace current stocks. High maintainence sprawl tracts are likely to either swell with infill development or dry up and blow away.
This is really big stuff and the time for denial is over.
Go get ‘em, tiger. The dirty coal burning factories are in China, so brush up on your Mandarin.
Or just grow up.
“Casino employees can not afford $300,000 homes. Trust me.”
Neither can your “overpaid” cops, teachers. I’m an RN working at one of the LV valley hospitals, (won’t mention name for fear of retribution) but I will say this, PROPERTY TAXES WILL RISE TO BALANCE OUT THE MESS THIS HOSPITAL HAS GOTTEN ITSELF INTO.
Anyways my point is that, your salaried professional cannot afford these home prices here in Las Vegas. I know of personally 4 nurses who bought recently in the last 3-5 years who are in foreclosure right now, they’re tired of working overtime just to pay that mortgage, tired….so they have opted for the path of least resistance…..so Mr. Bottfeld can bally-hoo and shake his pom poms all he wants, I’m seeing this debacle unwind right before my very eyes. Where I live, which was supposed to be the premier planned development in North Las Vegas at the 215, is 95% rented….95%! Bottfeld is’nt drinking kool aid, he’s a meth head.
I’m not the one who said cops and teachers are overpaid. I said they are underpaid and someone else responded that they are overpaid.
Nurses are not considered “professionals” by anyone other than other nurses. Post-graduate education is required to be a professional, not a nurse.
“Nurses are not considered “professionals” by anyone other than other nurses. ”
Oh the nastiness….lol….you must be having PTSD from Ratchett…..ummmmm not my problem.
I meant “nurse” Ratchett.
“The only thing missing from real estate consultant Steve Bottfeld’s presentation Thursday at Crystal Ball 2007 was his cheerleader outfit. ‘I don’t care what anyone says, prices in Las Vegas will continue to rise,’ Bottfeld told 1,100 real estate professionals.”
I can’t wait for this particular insect to splatter on the onrushing windshield of reality.
presentation Thursday at Crystal Ball 2007 was his cheerleader outfit. ‘I don’t care what anyone says, prices in Las Vegas will continue to rise,’ Bottfeld told 1,100 real estate professionals.”
This man is an obvious crack whore.
Just my opinion…
Subkommander Dred
There’s must be too much of that US Gov’t U-325 radioactive “Pixie Dust” STILL floating around Vegas. These REIC reports GLOW SO MUCH, I wonder if they IS any electrity even HOOKED UP to their Neon Signs. Nah…It HAS to be the Floride in the water.
“I don’t care what anyone says, prices in Las Vegas will continue to rise,’ Bottfeld told 1,100 real estate professionals”
What bullsh*t. I’m sorry, I’ve been drinking scotch. For any whiskey fans out there - Johnny Walker Green Label 15 year old. Pretty Good. And kudos to all bloggers. The rest are all fu*ked.
Now THAT is a strange coincidence. At this very moment I’m drinking a small glass of 15 year old JW green label. My wife picked it up for me when she was in London a few years back. To be frank it’s not my favorite, but I’m warming to it. Strange.
POST SUPERBOWL® WARNING
Be very careful on the streets Monday. Herds of aging baby boomers with bags of cash, scads of rich imigrants loaded with loot, and bucnches of disgruntled rentors who’ve been cooped up on the sidelines will be rushing to open houses to engage in bidding wars on all that available inventory.
Gary said so! It’s in the Bag!!