March 6, 2006

Prices, Sales Fall In Most New York Counties

The New York realtors finally have the January numbers out. “Sales of existing single-family homes in New York slowed in January, according to preliminary single-family sales data accumulated by the NYSAR. The preliminary data showed a median selling price increase of more than 20 percent.”

“The January 2006 sales total decreased 8.6 percent to 5,947 compared to the January 2005 sales total of 6,509. The January 2006 sales total fell 33.8 percent from the strong sales total of 8,984 in December 2005.”

“‘As expected, the New York housing market has slowed from the record-setting pace of the past two years,’ said Charles M. Staro, NYSAR chief executive officer. ‘The January sales total is indicative of a still healthy housing market in New York state, especially when viewed in the context of the past several years. We continue to expect the market to be solid in 2006 even though sales will be below the exceptional pace of the past two years.’”

Checking the associations PDF files, it appears some of the more expensive counties faired worse than the overall numbers. Dutchess, YOY sales down 8.2%, price down 2.9% from December 2005. Greene YOY sales down 50%, YOY price is down 8% and 24.6% from December 2005. Nassau, YOY sales down 7.3%. Orange, YOY sales down 5.1% and prices down 5.3% from December 2005. Putnam, YOY sales down 27.5% and YOY prices are off 2.9%, Prices are down 11.8% from the previous month.

Suffolk, YOY sales are down 6.4%, prices are off 3.6% from the previous month. Westchester, Sales are off 19% from the previous month and YOY prices are unchanged.

Out of New Yorks’ 58 counties, 37 reported YOY sales volume declines and 56 saw fewer sales from December 2005. 14 counties saw YOY median price declines and 40 had lower prices from the previous month. Many of the declines were hefty double digits.

I already posted these in the comments, but here is some detail:

YOY median price declines

Allegany -30.2%

Broome -9.2%

Greene -8%

Lewis -34.9%

Livingston -8%

Madison -11.5%

Niagra -5.4%

Oneida-3%

Ontario -9.5%

Orleans -32.3%

Oswego-9.8%

Putnam -2.9%

Schoharie -45.8%

Warren -9.1%

Wayne -13.4%

YOY sales volume by county:

Albany -25.3%

Chemung -33.3%

Clinton -40%

Delaware -27.3%

Essex -29.4%

Greene -50%

Livingston -38.5%

Monroe -41.9%

Ontario -29.9%

Orleans -43.3%

Putnam -27.5%

Schoharie -35.3%

Seneca -28.6%

Steuben -32.1%

Warren -26.2%

Wayne -52.3%

Wyoming -66.7%

For sales I only did the ones over 25%. There were many at -17%, etc.




RSS feed | Trackback URI

82 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-03-06 15:07:43

Thanks to the reader who posted the tip about these numbers coming out today. Every month NYSAR seems to put his out later. The date on the release is March 2nd, but it was only posted today.

 
Comment by desidude
Comment by bottomfisherman
2006-03-06 16:43:08

Increase state assistance for people facing foreclosure because of a lost job. A pilot program has made financial assistance available in 26 counties, including Cabarrus, Caldwell, Anson, Cleveland and Rowan

Here we go, another bailout on the way for FBs. Makes me wonder why I save and manage things conservatively when any moron can buy a house, no down, neg am and can get bailed out by the gvt.

Comment by mrincomestream
2006-03-06 18:49:18

See hears the problem with that. Make sure you view the multimedia that goes along with that particular link. There was a time when you lost a home or filed a bk you had to suffer repercussions. It’s no longer that way no one has to pay for the fuck-ups. That’s a bad thing

 
 
 
Comment by TheLingus
2006-03-06 15:56:41

Well…. The NJ/CT/NYC slimeballs haven’t completely destroyed upstate but they got a good start on it.

 
Comment by Gondomondo
2006-03-06 16:11:01

I have yet to see any meaningful price reductions - i.e. the sellers aren’t getting it yet….Have friends who just put house on market for $720,000 and zillow.com lists it at between $375-420,000. Can a Viking stove really justify that price?? They’ll probably get it, though because people love throwing money down the drain here. Wanna make some extra money? Go to the Roosevelt Field Mall (locals Long Islanders will know it) and look in parking lots and in the mall. My husband and I have found ~$15 there each time we go..there’s money on the ground all over the place! The streets are paved in gold!

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-03-06 16:38:32

How about these:

YOY median price declines

Allegany -30.2%
Broome -9.2%
Greene -8%
Lewis -34.9%
Livingston -8%
Madison -11.5%
Niagra -5.4%
Oneida-3%
Ontario -9.5%
Orleans -32.3%
Oswego-9.8%
Putnam -2.9%
Schoharie -45.8%
Warren -9.1%
Wayne -13.4%

Comment by bottomfisherman
2006-03-06 16:45:31

I’d hate to have bought in Schoharie a year ago.

-45%! Ouch!!

 
Comment by TheLingus
2006-03-06 17:16:45

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-03-06 16:38:32
How about these:

YOY median price declines

Allegany -30.2%
Broome -9.2%
Greene -8%
Lewis -34.9%
Livingston -8%
Madison -11.5%
Niagra -5.4%
Oneida-3%
Ontario -9.5%
Orleans -32.3%
Oswego-9.8%
Putnam -2.9%
Schoharie -45.8%
Warren -9.1%
Wayne -13.4%

Ben, alot of those counties could be considered insignificant. Most are in western NY where ag and manufacturing were king many years ago. It’s always been cheap to live there but no way to make a living. There are a few significant counties on the list. Namely;

Putnam (commutable to NYC)
Warren (armpit of the adirondacks, a destination for CT/NJ/NYC slime)
Albany (another post industrial wasteland, state capital)

Don’t be fooled by some of the other numbers in the economically devestated areas. As I said, their price performance has always been poor. For the last 25 years anyways.

Comment by John Law
2006-03-06 20:13:02

yes, a lot of these counties aren’t going to have comparable property sizes to get a median, I don’t think.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by Dont know nothing about buyin no house
2006-03-06 19:26:02

Wow Ben. These are eye popping numbers. Sorry if I missed this, but where did you get the following numbers?
YOY median price declines

Allegany -30.2%
Broome -9.2%
Greene -8%
Lewis -34.9%
Livingston -8%
Madison -11.5%
Niagra -5.4%
Oneida-3%
Ontario -9.5%
Orleans -32.3%
Oswego-9.8%
Putnam -2.9%
Schoharie -45.8%
Warren -9.1%
Wayne -13.4%

 
Comment by Upstater
2006-03-08 15:52:55

Anyone know where I can get figures for Onandaga? Also, wha d’ya mean most of these are “insignificant” counties? The locals here will tell you Cazenovia (in Madison) is the center of the universe.

 
 
Comment by skep-tic
2006-03-06 17:35:45

granite counters, stainless steel appliances and whirlpool tubs have lost a lot of their appeal. These features have become standard in all new construction. They’re not “luxury” anymore. people know roughly how much they cost to put in, and they’re starting to add it up. A lot of the frenzy of the past few years seems to be disappearing fast

 
Comment by UnRealtor
2006-03-06 19:36:03

Zillow is pretty much worthless — it’s only accurate to provide the last assessed value (which may have been years ago), lot size, and taxes paid.

Other than that, Zillow is not very useful.

Comment by UnRealtor
2006-03-06 19:42:52

Oh, and Zillow can also tell prior sale prices, etc. But as a tool to estimate the value of a home, it’s not useful at all. It doesn’t know if there are train tracks behind a house, etc.

 
 
 
Comment by LowTenant
2006-03-06 16:18:22

Lingus, I’m a Manhattanite who’s been holding off on snagging that lakeside retreat in Vermont, but you’re really starting to tempting me…

Comment by TheLingus
2006-03-06 16:21:58

Good luck. VT isn’t known as the land of 1000 lakes. ;)

 
Comment by grubner
2006-03-06 18:14:20

Amen.

Comment by TheLingus
2006-03-06 18:39:49

You slimers can’t handle the cold anways. ;)

Comment by sf jack
2006-03-06 21:31:47

Yeah… and think Lingus - it will be even better to laugh at them when put their Range Rovers in the ditch… because they can’t drive keep ‘em on the roads in winter!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by The Lingus
2006-03-07 06:40:43

Comment by sf jack
2006-03-06 21:31:47
Yeah… and think Lingus - it will be even better to laugh at them when put their Range Rovers in the ditch… because they can’t drive keep ‘em on the roads in winter!

haha… Yep. I seethe slimers ditching their EuroTrash here almost daily. Gawd they’re stoopid.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by homelessbubbleboy
2006-03-06 16:34:24

Ben;

this would be fun article to discuss over…

Link

 
Comment by Housegeek
2006-03-06 16:40:06

Does seem like it gets later every month, doesn’t it Ben - perhaps because of things like this: Did you notice that in the existing homes sold pdf every county — except teeny Lewis, which came in at a big zero — was in the negative percent from Dec 05-Jan 06 — some by enormous negative percentage numbers? This is astonishing to me. Gondomondo, you don’t have long to wait.

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-03-06 16:48:04

Right, too many to go through but here are the biggest drops in YOY sales volume by county:

Albany -25.3%
Chemung -33.3%
Clinton -40%
Delaware -27.3%
Essex -29.4%
Greene -50%
Livingston -38.5%
Monroe -41.9%
Ontario -29.9%
Orleans -43.3%
Putnam -27.5%
Schoharie -35.3%
Seneca -28.6%
Steuben -32.1%
Warren -26.2%
Wayne -52.3%
Wyoming -66.7%

I only did the ones over 25%. There were many at 17%, etc.

 
Comment by Gondomondo
2006-03-07 06:21:14

I’m optimistic - but still doubtful at the same time. The inventory is growing and I am starting to see houses

Comment by Gondomondo
2006-03-07 09:03:13

Oy, post got cut off.

I’m optimistic - but still doubtful at the same time. The inventory is growing and I am starting to see houses less than 400K again (though they are 1br/1ba $hitboxes). When Nassau/Suffolk sees a %30 decline, THEN I’ll do the happy dance.

Thanks, Ben for posting this about the NY area. “They” say “we’re immune”…but I’m hoping for a return to normalcy. The Lingus is right, most of those counties cited are in Western/Upstate NY where there is no industry/growth to begin with.

 
 
 
Comment by skep-tic
2006-03-06 16:58:26

the way inventory has continue to build in the NYC area since January would seem to indicate that sales haven’t picked up at all. This is not just a one month dip.

 
Comment by Moopheus
2006-03-06 17:06:02

I lived in Troy for some years back in the 80s, and every now and I look at the listings for the area, and think, jeez, you can buy a really nice victorian brownstone in Troy for less than the cost of a tiny Brooklyn condo . . . but it’s in Troy.

Comment by TheLingus
2006-03-06 17:08:09

Comment by Moopheus
2006-03-06 17:06:02
I lived in Troy for some years back in the 80s, and every now and I look at the listings for the area, and think, jeez, you can buy a really nice victorian brownstone in Troy for less than the cost of a tiny Brooklyn condo . . . but it’s in Troy.

Troy has degenerated even further since the 80’s. Watervliet Armory is all but shut down. What a grim place Troy and Green Island are.

Comment by John Law
2006-03-06 20:14:48

at one time Troy was the richest on a per capita basis in the nation.

Comment by TheLingus
2006-03-06 20:21:02

Comment by John Law
2006-03-06 20:14:48
at one time Troy was the richest on a per capita basis in the nation.

The collar city?!!!! Serious?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by John Law
2006-03-06 21:04:36

yeah, that’s why there are all those nice old buildings that are in disrepair now.

 
 
Comment by Moopheus
2006-03-06 20:32:12

That’s why there’s all those nice townhouses there. The people who built them were quite wealthy. I had an apartment in one once–nice woodwork, brass chandeliers, floor-to-ceiling mirrors, on a private park. The last time I went by that way, a couple of the buildings in that row were literally falling apart–the back walls were falling off.

On the other hand, the original 1915 facade was restored on the town’s porn theater. It’s still a porn theater, though.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by nick the wizard
2006-03-06 17:25:12

if the same trend is seen in orange county california, then it would be the nail in the bubble at last. it’s time for seller to panic because if it can happen in orange, ca, it can happen any where. no one is possibly crazy enough to buy at this time, just stupid.

Comment by WillM
2006-03-06 19:28:13

I have been tracking one town in OC (Aliso Viejo). Saw a listing (MLS S430194) that I thought was interesting. It is a very upscale community near Laguna Beach. Following is the summary :

Bank Owned Repo. … This home is priced below comparables.

Let the fun begin.

Comment by rent2home
2006-03-07 01:48:31

The house lasttime sold for $790k on 7/13/04. Not bad. Maybe the house is damaged by last owner?

 
 
 
Comment by Robert Cote
2006-03-06 17:38:57

Ben,
We are all expecting a decline but I wish to take this opportunity to point out the problem with so many advocates. You wrote:

YOY median price declines
Allegany -30.2%
Broome -9.2%…

You of course -meant- YOY sales volume declines (stupid/silly we all do it lapse) but I note that no one caught this in your post. You even repeated this and again no one caught it. This doesn’t in any way say anything about the strength of our position and shouldn’t even affect credibility but we need to police ourselves to mantain the high ground.

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-03-06 17:47:04

Robert,
Thanks for checking. I checked twice but I’m sure I made mistakes. I’ll fix it right now.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2006-03-06 18:00:52

It’s really late, but I looked again and I think that’s accurate. I downloaded the NYSAR ‘Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family homes, December 2005 and January 2006.

The fourth column from the right is titled ‘Percentage of change Jan-05 to Jan-06′. That’s where I got these numbers. I could be number-blind today. Please check. While some of these percentages are big, the areas are probably subject to swings because the base is so low. Allegany went from $53k in Jan-05 to $37k last month. Thanks for helping out.

Comment by middleageman
2006-03-06 18:42:12

No, Robert is correct. Sales volume is down, prices are up. From the press release:

The statewide median selling price rose 18.6 percent in January 2006 to $319,000 compared to the $269,000 median recorded for the same period a year earlier.

I also checked the pdf files.

Comment by TheLingus
2006-03-06 18:48:59

The statewide median selling price rose 18.6 percent in January 2006 to $319,000 compared to the $269,000 median recorded for the same period a year earlier.

It’s still not an accurate reflection of prices. They vary wildly depending where you are in NY.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by AustinYankee
2006-03-06 18:42:04

How the heck did they miss Ulster County? Everything around it is down. Glad I’m in texas :)

 
Comment by Rob
2006-03-06 19:32:16

Troy? I love Troy. Is Elda’s still there? Can Troy really go downhill? What a place.

 
Comment by Richard
2006-03-06 19:41:32

long time NY resident and the counties quoted except for Long Island and Dutchess are insignificant. what is clear is inventories are building and i’ve yet to see anything sell int he last 4 months for over asking. the quality properly priced properties are still selling but the majority of stuff is sitting. heck i’m even see Weichert realtors who routinely ask for 10% above the highest ever price regardless of time period reduce prices only 1-2 weeks into a listing.

what seems to be happening is realtors and/or sellers are starting to be a bit quicker in reducing prices. some are only waiting for one or two open houses, probably because of the lukewarm response. still it’s ultimately the seller who gives the go ahead on price adjustments and i still see a # of them who think their place is worth what they’re asking and being stubborn. let it sit, but if you have little equity or only in it 18 months or less you’re playing with fire.

Comment by BurnBabyBurn
2006-03-07 06:05:51

You need to get out of the city more, Orange (fastest growing county in the state) and the southern tips of Ulster and Sullivan (where all the flushed out city dwellers are fleeing too) are a bit out of hand for the local economy as well. Though when the main cash hogs get gutted, the rest will come tumbeling down.

 
 
Comment by TheLingus
2006-03-06 19:45:30

I wouldn’t exactly call putnam insignificant.

 
Comment by flat
2006-03-06 19:46:42

yoy numbers cut both ways- expensive stuff dies first- people w money get out early
-5% is probably right for now

 
Comment by Lou Minatti
2006-03-06 20:01:02

This is OT, but “modaji” on CL posted a term that is highly appropriate for bubble zones: The Bubble Belt.

Bubble land, bubble zones, Bubbletopia. The Bubble Belt is the best description yet.

 
Comment by queensrenter
2006-03-06 20:58:52

Am I blind or does this data not include all of NY counties? I couldn’t find New York or Kings counties (Manhattan and Brooklyn) although Queens and Staten Island are there.

Comment by Housegeek
2006-03-07 06:00:15

Yes, they don’t included New York and Kings - which I find very interesting - perhaps we should email them to ask?. There also certainly are a lot of depressed counties not so good counties out there but I wouldn’t call them insignificant. But as for Queens and Long Island, what is interesting to me is the size of the one-month drop in home sales, coupled with flat prices. As for this giant price hike NYSAR is talking about, there were a couple of counties that had tiny # of sales (Franklin, Schuyler) with huge price increases — seems weird to me that home price sale almost tripled but wondering what affect it has on median # …

 
 
Comment by sang shin
2006-03-06 21:08:58

MAGIC TRICK:
——————
1. show a clear, unambiguous statistic [sales volume over time]

2. tap wand

3. now show an ambiguous statistic [median price]

4. voila- deceived crowd now believes in both statistics.

Wait… what just happened?

Think for second… median price. What exactly does that mean? The ‘middle’ price. Ok, but for what? Uhh… well, I dunno… of ALL houses sold?

Riiiiight… so if every year and month, we sold exactly the same type of houses, then yes we can compare prices. And, of course the TYPE of houses exchanging hands is not constant.

So, if a lot more mansions than cheap houses were being sold this time than before, then even if the sales volume DROPS, the median price can still appreciate. But the mansions could be getting sold at deep discounts- and this stat would “hide” that from you.

In my opinion, while we are seeing volume dry up, the increase in median price is due to the combination of FTHBs not buying the lower-priced homes, while more expensive homes are being sold after being discounted. The former is easily understood- the latter could be interpreted as the first steps in a real estate decline: price reductions in the highest end. This will eventually trickle down (already is) and drag the market along with it.

These guys are expert number massagers… but don’t be fooled by them.

Comment by Upstater
2006-03-08 16:09:10

Yeah you’re right. My house is for sale. First 10 couples came through before Xmas. But the floors had never been updated and were bringing down the freshness of our majorly rerenovatd home. We took January and half of Feb off to get new floors in including some beautiful hardwoods. And poof….no one to even look the whole last month. One thing I did learn in my month of realtor tet a tetes. (sp?) The town has a glut of lakefront that is just sitting and homes in 300s are piling up too. There are only 3 homes in my range $220-$250 but no one looking. Things are crazy at the low $100s range w/multiple offers. That would bring down your median price!

 
 
Comment by Sang Shin
2006-03-06 21:13:59

MAGIC TRICK:

1. show a clear, unambiguous statistic [sales volume over time]

2. tap wand

3. now show an ambiguous statistic [median price]

4. voila- deceived crowd now believes in both statistics.

Wait… what just happened?

Think for second… median price. What exactly does that mean? The ‘middle’ price. Ok, but for what? Uhh… well, I dunno… of ALL houses sold?

Riiiiight… so if every year and month, we sold exactly the same type of houses, then yes we can compare prices. And, of course the TYPE of houses exchanging hands is not constant.

So, if a lot more mansions than cheap houses were being sold this time than before, then even if the sales volume DROPS, the median price can still appreciate. But the mansions could be getting sold at deep discounts- and this stat would “hide” that from you.

In my opinion, while we are seeing volume dry up, the increase in median price is due to the combination of FTHBs not buying the lower-priced homes, while more expensive homes are being sold after being discounted. The former is easily understood- the latter could be interpreted as the first steps in a real estate decline: price reductions in the highest end. This will eventually trickle down (already is) and drag the market along with it.

Good magicians.

Comment by Housegeek
2006-03-07 06:01:55

Abra Cadabra! Thanks Sang!

Comment by bottomfisherman
2006-03-07 06:31:33

Step right up folks and for a small fee you too can see the fat lady sing! –PT

 
 
 
Comment by togoplease
2006-03-06 22:16:22

I would still hold out… wait till the headline news calls it a bust…blood in the street and no one touches RE like the plaque. You will real visable declines only after full blown media coverage across all states.

 
Comment by Johnny Fever
2006-03-06 23:25:37

Thanks Sang, sometimes I forget to look at the big picture when these #’s are put out. They can mean anything. Like the way the median can swing 150K in one month…then — POOF— drastically recover.

 
Comment by Nick818
2006-03-07 00:03:46

Off topic but had to share. I was just watching a late night program on PBS where they had Mr. Kiyosaki (author of Rich Dad Poor Dad) on and he was talking about next months upcoming real estate expo in Los Angeles with him, Trump, etc. attending to make people rich. Prior to tonight, I had just started reading his book and had a lot or respect for him up to tonight. He sounded like a total buttom of the barrell used car salesman and his whole purpose for being on the show was to encourage people to pay a few hundred dollars to go to this b*llshit expo. And what really pissed me off was the fact that he said that home prices will be double what they are in 10 years and all those people waiting on the sidelines (bears) are hopeless and will never get off the couch. Anybody familiar with this guy? I know after this, his book is going in the trash. I mean come on, if someone cannot call a bubble for what it is or is trying to con people, do I really want to be reading this guys book.

Any thoughts greatly appreciated.

 
Comment by Larry Littlefield
2006-03-07 05:20:36

What this shows is that declines can happen for two reasons — inadequate demand in declining areas, and a housing bubble that makes otherwise attractive areas overpriced. There is a third reason — excess supply.

People upstate, or in Detroit, arent’ surprised property values are falling.

 
Comment by miamirenter
2006-03-07 06:08:34

10 yr is near 4.8. haven’t seen this number for 2yrs +..quite often this bumped against 4.6-4.7 in the past only to be rolled back..
Could unwinding carry trades w/ BOJ rates going up be a clue here..
Emerging markets as well as BRIC ones have had orgasmic stock rallies, They will be the first one to swoon once asset meltdown truly begins.

 
Comment by Bill Elliott
2006-03-07 06:25:57

Comment by Rob
2006-03-06 19:32:16
“Troy? I love Troy. Is Elda’s still there? Can Troy really go downhill? What a place.”
They are still trying to flip properties even in Troy. Two houses down from some fellow homeschoolers we want to move near, and in an area full of $50 - $80K houses there is a house that was bought 6 months ago for $95K and fixed up FSBO for $125K. Not selling and couple per homeschooling mom appears to be stressed.

Comment by The Lingus
2006-03-07 06:46:23

Comment by Bill Elliott
2006-03-07 06:25:57
Comment by Rob
2006-03-06 19:32:16
“Troy? I love Troy. Is Elda’s still there? Can Troy really go downhill? What a place.”
They are still trying to flip properties even in Troy.

Haha… Floppers are flipping/flopping in Troy?!!!!! I bet thats lucrative.

 
Comment by Moopheus
2006-03-07 18:15:43

A few years ago a friend in Troy bought a HUD-owned 2-family house for something like $40K, did a pretty nice job fixing it up, lives upstairs and rents out the first floor.

Yeah, it’s hard to imagine flippers in Troy, though there are plenty of houses needing to be fixed up. Every time I go up there, it seems like they’re trying some new thing to “revitalize” but it never seems to quite take off.

The numbers make it seem like folks in some upstate areas tried to make a bubble happen, and then realized all at once that there was really nothing at all to support it.

 
 
Comment by UnRealtor
2006-03-07 07:26:13

Price drops are happening in desirable towns near NY City as well:

$15,000 price drop:
MLS#: 2238841
79 Tulip Street, Summit NJ
$675,000 => $659,000
Days on Market: 41

$20,000 price drop:
MLS#: 2205176
4 Brainerd Road, Summit NJ
$689,000 => $669,000
Days on Market: 141

$40,000 price drop:
MLS: 2233189
90 Woodland Rd, Chatham NJ
$589,000 => $549,000
Days on Market: 60

$40,000 price drop:
MLS 2240267
6 Bodwell Terrace, Millburn NJ
$639,000 => $599,000
Days on Market: 34

40,000 price drop:
MLS: 2241229
372 Wastena Terrace, Ridgewood NJ
$839,000 => $799,900

$90,000 price drop:
MLS: 2105705
365 Meeker Street, West Orange NJ
$549,000 => $459,000
Days on Market: 179

 
Comment by skep-tic
2006-03-07 07:53:28

I agree with the guy’s assessment above that price pressure is coming from the high end in NY/NJ/CT. People who live in multi-million dollar homes are often older, have owned their homes for a long time, have more savings, used bigger downpayments and less risky financing. Many of them have their homes paid off and stand to make a significant profit even if they reduce their prices substantially. Many of them are downsizing. They’re also more likely to understand that the market has shifted.

Contrast this with the entry level market where there are few reductions in price and homes are just sitting. These people *need* to get their asking prices. Maybe they used an ARM. Maybe they’re older and have no savings for retirement. Maybe they’re looking to trade up.

I think the entry level market will ultimately get hit harder than the high end because these people will wait until the last minute to reduce their prices, when everyone on their block is selling and priced 10% below them.

 
Comment by skep-tic
2006-03-07 08:12:14

Article on Yahoo Finance predicting that NYC Metro will be #2 in house price declines (behind Boston). PMI Group, a residential mortgage insurer, supplied the predictions:

“Like Boston, New York City suffered through a housing slump in the ’90s. But while job losses were the big problem then, now it’s out-migration. “People from New York, especially baby-boomers, are moving out,” says Yun. If the trend accelerates, it could cause a problem, particularly for the high end of the real estate market. Meanwhile, prices remain extremely high. The median price for existing homes in the metropolitan New York City area (which includes parts of Connecticut and New Jersey as well as Long Island and Westchester County) stood at $435,000 at the end of the first quarter of 2005, up 18% over the first quarter of 2004. PMI puts the risk of a price decline in New York City at 31% and says it’s even money that prices on Long Island, where affordability is becoming a concern, will sink within two years.”

I don’t see NY leading the slump unless there are huge job losses in the financial services industry. Still, an interesting view

 
Comment by Sang Shin
2006-03-07 08:35:30

I don’t see NY leading the slump unless there are huge job losses in the financial services industry. Still, an interesting view

The saturated and overheated credit/risk derivatives market will be significantly impacted once the $2+ trillion in ARMs readjust by 2007. Hedge Fund Row in Midtown will be hurt, along with all its Pension Plan and Institutional Investors.

Analysts and Portfolio Managers have hedged against this, but there is only so much you can hedge. The likelihood of this occuring is moderate in my opinion.

But I agree, I don’t NY will LEAD the slump. It will be up there though, no doubt.

Comment by Andrew Grant
2006-03-07 09:19:00

Hedge Fund Row is in Midtown? I thought it was in Greenwich, CT.

Comment by Sang Shin
2006-03-07 10:00:52

Nope, it’s in MidTown, right around the corner where I work (btw I don’t work for a HedgeFund).

Here’s a referral to it…

“If you go to so-called “Hedge Fund Row” on Park Avenue in New York”

from:

Asia Week Article

or “Along ritzy Park Avenue, in an area known as Hedge Fund Row…”

from:

Trader’s Magazine Article

There are many Hedge Funds in CT as well though, and some have said that Greenwich is “turning into Hedge Fund Row”.

Cheers.

 
 
Comment by Moopheus
2006-03-07 18:06:59

Before there’s job losses in the financial services industry (or maybe concurrent with), there will be not so many generous bonus checks being handed out if there’s anything trending toward a recession. And the NY condo market still depends on those checks coming in, especially at current price levels.

 
 
Comment by UnRealtor
2006-03-07 08:58:21

Yet more price drops in desirable towns just outisde NY City:

$25,000 price drop:
MLS#: 2204937
14 University Avenue, Chatham NJ
$499,900 => $475,000
Days on Market: 143

$14,000 price drop:
MLS#: 2243567
120 Center Avenue, Chatham NJ
$589,000 => $575,000
Days on Market: 30

$25,000 prce drop
MLS: 2250321
12 Mountainside Dr, Chatham NJ
$750,000 => $724,990
Days on Market: 60+ days

$50,000 price drop:
MLS: 2230238
9 Midland Terrace, Summit NJ
$899,000 => $849,000
Days on Market: 60+ days

$30,000 price drop
MLS: 2238517
32 Ridgedale Ave, Summit NJ
$829,000 => $799,000
Days on Market: 60+ days

$25,000 price drop:
MLS: 2110639
15 Morris Avenue, Summit NJ
$675,000 => $650,000
Days on Market: 158 days

$84,000 price drop:
MLS: 2104955
10 Gates Avenue, Summit NJ
$639,000 => $554,900
Days on Market: 153 days

 
Comment by Andrew
2006-03-07 09:22:42

The problem with the median price drops is that the number of houses is too small to indicate trend. It would really be helpfull if aggregate stats like median were also accompanied by total number of houses sold, so that we cold judge sample size issues.

 
Comment by Steph
2006-03-07 12:28:15

My husband and I have been househunting in Stamford, CT for a few months now. We are definitely seeing activity at open houses and several of the houses that we really liked had multiple offers on them. Royal Bank of Scotland is moving to Stamford in a few years and there are already people house hunting in the area. Realtors are all predicting no real dowturn in the local market because of the influx of thousands of families all needing housing. My husband and I are currently renting and really looked at renting a house, but the 4 bed/2 bath homes in the area (that didn’t smell like wet dog) were in the 3k-5k range, so we started looking to buy instead. But I come here all the time and read about the bubble, but the truth is that I’m worried that this area of CT (Fairfield County, specifically Greenwich, Stamford, New Canaan, Darien, etc) will never really drop very much. But if it does, we don’t want to buy just before prices drop. But if we don’t buy now and we wait, then we will be competing against a lot more people when RBS comes to town.

Anyone have any specific data or annectdotal thoughts about CT?

Comment by ADGrant
2006-03-08 08:48:16

Yes. A large portion of the business that Royal Bank of Scotland is relocating to Stamford, CT is coming all the way from…

Greenwich, CT (RBS Geenwich Capital).

Another major location people will be moved from is Manhattan (already happening). Some of those people already live in the area. Others may stay in Manhattan and reverse commute. However anyone living on the other side of the Hudson might be tempted to move.

 
 
Comment by Steph
2006-03-07 12:33:02

My husband and I have been househunting in Stamford, CT for a few months now. We are definitely seeing activity at open houses and several of the houses that we really liked had multiple offers on them. Royal Bank of Scotland is moving to Stamford in a few years and there are already people househunting in the area. Realtors are all predicting no real dowturn in the local market because of the influx of thousands of families all needing housing. My husband and I are currently renting and really looked at renting a house, but the 4 bed/2 bath homes in the area (that didn’t smell like wet dog) were in the 3k-5k range, so we started looking to buy instead. But i come here all the time and read about the bubble, but the truth is that I’m worried that this area of CT (Fairfield County, specifically Greenwich, Stamford, New Canaan, Darien, etc) will never really drop very much. But if it does, we don’t want to buy just before prices drop. But if we don’t buy now and we wait, then we will be competing against a lot more people when RBS comes to town.

Anyone have any specific data or annectdotal thoughts about CT?

Comment by Steph
2006-03-07 12:56:15

yikes, not sure why this posted twice. sorry.

Comment by Housegeek
2006-03-07 15:56:23

if you google connecticut association of realtors, hit consumer button and click on “housing statistics” on left-hand menu, you only get 3rd quarter data for 2005 (so I guess we can’t moan too much about ny data being late -shhesh) - 3rdd quarter does indicate price drop in SF homes in fairfield, though sales volume is up - but 3rd quarter is a world away from what’ s happening now. Would like to see if CT stats really reflect what you’re seeing…

 
 
Comment by TheLingus
2006-03-07 16:08:13

Steph,
You’re pretty much on the money with Stamford. It’s so closely tied to Westchester and Manhattan that I’d be surprised you see anything more than an inflection in the price movement. I may be wrong but I know that area pretty well. I would not advise buying north of 95 as 95 southbound in the morning is a nightmare. You may want to check on the south end of town out harborview ave.

 
 
Comment by firsttimer
2006-03-07 14:45:45

How can you determine how long a property has been on the market and how much it has been reduced? Sorry, I’m a newbie hoping to eventually buy a house and patiently waiting on the sidelines. Long Island, NY

 
Comment by seattle price drop
2006-03-07 18:15:15

First Timer-

Go to http://www.ziprealty.com. You have to sign up but it’s free and no realtor has contacted me or sent email. I signed up a couple months back. They list DOM’s and price reductions. It’s great!

 
Comment by firsttimer
2006-03-07 19:51:06

Thanks SPD!

I signed up but had to go through HomeGain instead of Zip Realty b/c I am in NY. It doesn’t seem like we have access to that info here?

Comment by skep-tic
2006-03-07 20:08:42

I had the same problem. Also, realtors have been e-mailing non stop since I tried it. Not really worth it in NY, IMO

 
 
Name (required)
E-mail (required - never shown publicly)
URI
Your Comment (smaller size | larger size)
You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

Trackback responses to this post