“The Market’s Not Moving Like It Was” In Florida
The News Press reports from Florida. “The developers of a 473-town house community in south Fort Myers are suing 25 people for nearly $700,000 in deposits for not closing on the properties and they want the court to force the investors to buy them. But some of those are being sued said the developers, Palm Beach Gardens-based EH Building Group, took too long to build their units and feel they were misled about some aspects of the property.”
“And with the housing market in Southwest Florida softening, they said it is smarter financially to forfeit the deposits than to go through with the contract and buy the property.”
“‘We don’t think they’re worth the list price,’ said Frederick Ryan of Fort Myers Beach. Ryan is one of six local residents who are being sued; the lawsuit also names buyers from California to New York to the United Kingdom. He said he planned on using the property as an investment, but felt misled by the company as to the proximity to each unit.”
“He said he decided to lose his 10 percent deposit, or $26,000, instead of going through the closing and spending nearly $300,000. But lawsuits filed early this week by the company are asking a judge to let the company keep the deposits as well as force the investors to finish the closing.”
“For Patti Southall of Fort Myers, the town house was going to be a place to live when she and her family moved to Fort Myers from California. She snagged one of the models in October 2004, when they first went on sale. But she said delays in the building process made her decide to forfeit the deposit and buy another house.”
“‘Obviously, I didn’t need it as a primary residence,’ she said. ‘So much time’s gone by and obviously, the market’s not moving like it was. Now, I can’t sell that property for $265 (thousand) if my life depended on it,’ Southall said.”
The St Petersburg Times. “Lenders sued 211 Pasco homeowners for nonpayment in November, up 8 percent from October and 87 percent over 12 months.”
“Many were purchased by inexperienced individuals who, egged on by eager developers, real estate agents and lenders, expected to flip the homes for a quick profit. But demand cooled, and now a growing number of these investors are struggling to cover a mortgage they never wanted. Some are simply walking away.”
“‘I don’t think there’s any mystery to it,’ said Greg Hallam, president of the Mortgage Bankers Association of Florida. ‘We lenders don’t tell people ‘no’ often enough. You’ve got to be a sophisticated person to be in the marketplace, and we probably let some in we shouldn’t have.’”
From MarketWatch. “Condominium sales have stalled as investors flee the market and developers who jumped into the sector during the boom of the last three years are turning their attention back to rental apartments, condo and apartment builders said Thursday at the International Builders show here.”
“‘There were a lot of conversions in Orlando, for instance, but there is now very little appetite for a $250,000 garden unit,’ said Steve Patterson, an Orlando builder. ‘There is now a shadow market for these units as investors rent those out.’”
“‘Condos are here to stay,’ said Sharon Dworkin Bell, senior staff VP for multifamily with the National Association of Home Builders. ‘It’s a growing phenomenon across the country, in places large and small that have never had condos before.’”
The Palm Beach Post. “The condo craze is over, developers declared here today. That may be hard to tell given the number of condominium buildings still under construction in areas like downtown West Palm Beach, but builders and developers attending the massive International Builders Show here said don’t expect that trend to continue.”
“Indeed, the race by builders and developers to satiate the perceived demand for condo units even had most of the region’s high-end rental properties converting to condos. But that all seem to came to a screeching halt last year, as a glut of units collided with a dearth of investor dollars.”
The Tampa Tribune. “The frenzied condominium building boom in Florida’s major cities appears to be slowing dramatically, and as a result some developers may scrap their plans while others shift to apartment construction.”
“‘We’re faced with having to pay these high land prices and construction prices and still build affordable’ units, said Steve Patterson, CEO of Orlando-based Zom Inc. ‘We’re going to have to push the limits on rents and accept bare minimums on returns.’”
“Many of the converted condos are sitting empty, and investors who fueled the conversion boom by buying up blocks of units are struggling to sell or lease them.”
The Herald Tribune. “Coast Bank is allowing customers to ‘re-title’ or reconfigure large-denomination certificates of deposit with no penalty. The large certificates of deposit, time deposits of $100,000 or more and often called ‘Jumbo’ CD, constitute about 25 percent of the troubled bank’s total deposits.”
“It is an unusual step and one taken to maximize the availability of FDIC coverage for the deposits, said bank analyst Jim Schutz. Re-titling is very rare. Schutz has only seen the move ‘a couple of times in my very, very long career.’”
“Schutz said that holders of Jumbo CDs are likely ‘wholesalers or broker deposits,’ meaning mostly New York financial institutions looking for high yields. ‘But that money is skittish and if there’s trouble, it will flee,’ said Schutz.”
From CNN Money. “Dave Corey has been flipping houses on the side for nearly 30 years, but the latest slump in the real estate market is taking its toll. His latest struggle: Unloading a ranch in Ocala, Fla.”
“He thought it would be a quick buy, rehab and sell transaction. Instead, it’s been buy, rehab…and sit. For 10 months. After paying $146,000 in January of 2006, he’s now out of pocket $160,000 including closing costs and renovations, he said. The list price of $178,900 has drawn zero interest.”
“A few years ago, Ocala was a hot spot for investors, mainly Northerners, according to Corey. Those buyers have flown back north. ‘I don’t see where any new investors are coming in,’ he says.”
“Corey got the current one directly from a builder so it didn’t need much work. With this kind of home, all he does is upgrade some of the features and amenities. But, by the time he was ready to sell, he could no longer get the price he wanted. ‘It sat for five or six months,’ he says ‘Nobody even looked at it.’”
“‘Inventory is so high, I heard they had 1,200 homes for sale in [a nearby subdivision] The Villages, it’s very difficult to buy and sell,’ says Corey.”
“Corey thinks he may have solved his problem, at least for now. He entered into a lease-with-an-option-to-buy transaction with a 30-something couple. They’re paying $1,200 a month, of which $200 goes into the down payment principal. They pay promptly and he expects them to follow through on the buy option.”
‘Lillian Kesel never filed a claim during the nine years she paid for homeowners insurance with Allstate Floridian. So she was surprised to learn that Allstate wouldn’t renew the policy on her Venice condominium last month, instead arranging to transfer her coverage to Royal Palm Insurance Co.’
‘Kesel’s policy turned out to be one of the last that Allstate Floridian will be allowed to cancel, or ‘nonrenew,’ as the industry likes to call it.’
‘NORTH PORT — When this city’s second new middle school opens, it may have only half the number of students as at Heron Creek Middle School. And a current slowdown in the housing market will determine how long it takes for the school’s enrollment to catch up.’
‘The husband-and-wife team of former Coast Bank executives at the heart of the Coast Bank/Construction Compliance Inc. saga have been terminated by the bank.’
‘Philip W. Coon, who was executive vice president of the bank and head of construction lending, and his wife Melissa B. Coon, formerly a vice president in the same office in charge of retail lending, have both been fired.’
“…she was surprised to learn that Allstate wouldn’t renew the policy on her Venice condominium last month…”
Why should she be surprised? It’s already a difficult market to do business in. Many in the industry believe the new legislation will make it even more difficult. Some have declared it impossible.
So let’s review FL. No easy access to home insurance + flippers gone wild + more homes than buyers = bad news.
Math is hard.
Can’t you just help me buy a house, I don’t want to know about stupid ratios, or your stupid addition. My RE agent said now is a great time to buy! Why would he/she lie to me?
Mike, I think you should always listen to your RE agent. Maybe he/she can buy you some insurance and pay your property taxes too. When that insurance company goes belly up maybe he/she will find you another one and continue to pay that premium.
Yes! Listen to that RE agent! I’m sure they can hook you up with a nice 100% no doc negative am loan too. Just don’t drink the kool-aid he/she gives you. Hear that’s bad.
“So let’s review FL. No easy access to home insurance + flippers gone wild + more homes than buyers = bad news.”
Add the high property tax bills that new buyers face to your equation and it equals really bad news.
I come from MI Bill. They already had that stupid rule. It didn’t kill real estate there. In fact, as a whole we have it a lot better here in FL than they do up there. No personal income tax and property tax that is in-line with most other places. MI, NY, NJ, PA…all have very high property taxes and personal income tax in addition.
I would argue with you about Ny and Nj having more things going for them than florida. And many of those things can’t be moved easialy to other places. Things like Columbia, Princeton, ports, airports, subway (no need for a car), also no hurricane insurance necessary, etc.
Yeah, but I’ll bet your salary was a heckuva lot higher in the north than here. If it’s comparable, count yourself among the blessed few. The rest of the state is a paycheck away from bankruptcy.
MI? Higher? The only good paying jobs were putting together cars. Those jobs are gone. Here if you’re in the service industry or management you make at least 30% more. Those in the construction trades make 50% more. I’m not claiming to be well off in any way, but I’ll take the FL economy over the MI economy any day of the week.
I’ll just give you an example of a friend of mine who transferred his low-end job down here from MI with the same company. In MI he was paid $10.50 per hour. Here with the same company in the same position he’s making $14.75. $4.25 per hour pays for a lot of cost of living increase. The funny thing is he doesn’t have a cost of living increase. He was paying $980 for mortgage, taxes, and insurance in MI. Here he’s paying $1000 to rent a 2 bedroom condo. That $20 is more than made up with added pay and lack of income tax.
Cypok -
Do not forget CULTURE and a lower trash-to-class ratio.
“I would argue with you about Ny and Nj having more things going for them than florida.”
Certain large insurance companies have stopped writing insurance in coastal NY and NJ. Does the Long Island Express bring back any memories? It will only take one storm to put the NY/NJ insurance market in shambles. The “don’t need hurricane insurance” position doesn’t hold water. Pre 1992 a home insurance policy in FL was $400 per year and you could buy it from any company you wanted. EVERYONE on the coast should take note of that.
Let’s talk about ports, airports and public transportation. Granted, FL does not have great public transportation. In Souteast FL we have the Tri-Rail that can take you from West Palm to Miami for $4.00 on the weekend. You get unlimited rides on Miami public transit with that money. Palm Tran is reliable bus service. You don’t NEED a car here, but it is a nice luxury.
Outside of NYC or Chicago I want you to show me more arts than in South Florida. Check out the calendar of events at the Kravis Center in West Palm Beach. No other city of its size can compare.
Big Cities? We dont’ have any huge ones. Miami, Jacksonville, Ft. Lauderdale, Orlando…those are the tourist spots. The benefit to business is airfare from here to anywhere is cheap because of those tourists. If I had a product to sell nationally that required me to send people on business there’s no hub I’d rather have.
The port of Miami is HUGE! This is the US connection to South America. We have a great deal of trade with South America.
I’ll give you it’s not perfect here, but don’t proclaim there’s nothing going for Florida.
Trash to class ratio? NY and NJ have been exporting their trash forever and there’s no end in sight. Class has always been in short supply in those Yankee states.
“Trash to class ratio? NY and NJ have been exporting their trash forever and there’s no end in sight.”
I was trying not to be nasty but it’s not far off. Don’t really want to generalize but I’ve got a customer from NJ who tried to give me directions to his house. Those directions were: “pass the guard shack, there will be some fountains and s**t, when you pass all that s**t turn right. You’ll see my old a$$ neighbor on her front porch.”
This was a guy in a $650K McMansion.
The developers of a 473-town house community in south Fort Myers are suing 25 people for nearly $700,000 in deposits for not closing on the properties and they want the court to force the investors to buy them.
All the investors have to do is fill out a loan app truthfully and they will be sure to be denied.
For Patti Southall of Fort Myers, the town house was going to be a place to live when she and her family moved to Fort Myers from California. She snagged one of the models in October 2004, when they first went on sale.
haha- looks like the townhouse “snagged” her…!
snagged
Several posters here asked why wouldn’t the builders sue to force the contract through. ‘Now, I can’t sell that property for $265 (thousand) if my life depended on it.’
I wonder if the lawsuit wasn’t preemptive on the developer’s part. Most of these people probably have a valid claim to get their deposits back due to poor performance and delivery failure by the developer. By suing for both the deposit and the purchase amount, they may just be posturing to keep the deposits.
Without seeing the contract, I can’t say for sure, but specific performance is usually a buyer’s remedy. A seller can sue for monetary damages from the defaulting buyer, but generally can’t force the buyer to buy the house. I don’t know what Florida law says about the matter, though.
“asking a judge to … force the investors to finish the closing”
What a waste of the court’s time. I’m no lawyer but the obvious implication of about a zillion precedents is, the intent of requiring a substantial deposit is to impose a penalty on the buyer if he/she decides not to close. Conversely, the penalty is limited to the deposit amount. Force the investors to finish the closing? The developers think they are kidding whom ?
While I don’t recall the language in new home contracts, most resale contracts give the seller two options when the buyer refuses to close.
1. Keep the deposit as liquidated damages, and not require closure. The buyer can walk, and the seller is of course free to sell the property to someone else.
2. Return the deposit and sue for performance (meaning sue the buyer to force closing on the house at the agreed-upon price). Making this choice prevents the seller from selling the property to anyone else while the litigation is ongoing.
Can anyone here comment on what their new home contract said concerning buyer non-performance?
In Florida it is quite simple. You can sue for specific performance in real estate. Either or both parties can do so.
Mitigating circumstances are admissable and each case is based upon the situation and circumstances. Unfortunately, we don’t have enough courthouses to house all the actions which are going to take place, much less judges to hear them.
Based upon history we will have a lot of buyers being forced to buy and sellers being forced to negotiate through mediation. My guess is the dumbass builders will take their chances reselling and fall flat on their faces. Greed works on both parts.
Just goes to reinforce that money is the root of all evil
The love of money is the root of all evil.
Actually, all kinds of evils.
“Love” of money I think is the quote. Don’t blame the scrap paper.
““A few years ago, Ocala was a hot spot for investors, mainly Northerners, according to Corey. Those buyers have flown back north. ‘I don’t see where any new investors are coming in,’ he says.””
Relying on other “investors” to bail you out time and time again is called a ‘Ponzi’ scheme, aka a pyramid scheme. It’s not called *investing*.
Does this mean those “I know Ocala, I sell Ocala” ads will finally be leaving 1230 AM? That woman annoys me more than the “where the traffic’s not bad at all” guy.
If the condo market in WPB is dead, again, if I were a Briny Breezes tin can holder/lotto winner, I’d be optioning out now for a 25% discount. Those condos may never be built.
I totally agree, get the money and run. These idiots are going to keep holding for the motherload payment, and then, suprise, suprise, are going to find themselves right back in their 50K trailers on the intracostal. Not anything wrong with that, but if you can find someone to option you out, TAKE IT NOW!
Mmm, good point. Oh well, I don’t think most of the residents wanted to be bought out. (Though what do you say to that much money?) So I guess they dodged the bullet … or let’s hope so.
BTW, here in Gainesville, Old Man Butler scotched the deal to sell Butler Plaza to a property management company (read: suckers) in Tampa for $300 mill. Apparently he was holding out for more money. Asshole. He did manage to dump his condo-converted Windmeadows Apts on them. At least the So. Fl. boys are getting screwed, but it’s just not as satisfying when Butler hasn’t gotten what so surely should be coming to him.
Txchick
Last weekend while playing golf, my girl friend told me again about the trailer that her son inherited in Briney Breezes. Again, I told her that it is not a done deal and I would tell her son not to be spending the money until it was in hand. Again, she told me “no no - they voted on it. It was in the paper. It is going to happen.” What do you say? OK - hope that works out for you!
honest tx-chick were you shorting MA?
I’m not doing a damn thing until this BS market breaks. I have my puts and scalp intraday for food money, that’s it.
Just wait until Save Our Homes portability hits the ballot/law books. Then we are really going to see a charge for the bottom! Nothing like taking a stupid law that creates crazy tax situations and extending it to create these inequities for the life of the homeowner. Just a wonderful idea, that’s for sure.
I honestly think that SOH is going to be the deathblow to the FL market (as if there are not enough contenders). If portability passes, it will be the end of the new home buyer; which, people always forget, is the only person who can actually take a home off the market. People moving around the state is great, but they have to sell one to buy one (no net change in vacant homes). First time buyers are the only people that can saw through this inventory. And portability will pretty much ensure that they will be kept at bay by the prospect of paying 2-3-4X as much for taxes as everyone else.
I fully expect a legal challange to portability; but, at the same time, know that it will take years to play out in court. In the meantime, the housing market dies totally down here. Which, is fine, if the prices drop low enough, Save our Homes is no longer much of a problem.
“It is an unusual step and one taken to maximize the availability of FDIC coverage for the deposits, said bank analyst Jim Schutz. Re-titling is very rare. Schutz has only seen the move ‘a couple of times in my very, very long career.’”
FDIC insurance punishes the better managed banks. They can’t compete with the morons who make high interest high risk loans. I keep trying to convince my wife not to chase the highest yields. At least I’ve been able to keep her away from banks rated less than 4 stars.
Why should I lend my money to people who are doing stupid things with it? (disclaimer I do own some treasuries, so I’m not totally clean myself)
Why WOULDN’T people just hold treasuries instead of CD’s is beyond me. The latest 4-week bills sold for 5.1%.
People’s eyes glass over when I try to get them to park ther cash in CDs PDX. I think they would slip into a mild coma if I introduced treasuries.
“Coast Bank is allowing customers to ‘re-title’ or reconfigure large-denomination certificates of deposit with no penalty….”
The run at Coast is still unfolding. Without these large deposits, it is over.
Maybe they should re-title them, “Coast Toasties.”
SUBPRIME MELTDOWN:
IAAL (I am a lawyer). Today I reviewed a foreclosure file in Cook County Illinois. In August 2003, Freemont bank lent a FB $153,000 to purchase a home on an 2 year ARM. Payment of principal and interest was about $1,189.00.
The initial interest rate was 8.5%; the index after the change was the 6-month libor plus a margin of 6.99%. The first interest rate change in Oct ‘05 would be no higher than 11.5%.
Household bank gave a second mortgage for about $25,000 at the same time. I don’t know if the purchase in August ‘03 was 80/20 or 80/10/10 or whatever because I don’t have the HUD.
Nonetheless, in Oct ‘05 the FB’s interest rate jumped to 11.5% on the Freemont loan. His payment jumped to about $1,530.00 or more (I don’t have exact figures). Six months later the interest rate jumped to 12.5% or so. His payment was well over $1,600 principal and interest.
He defaulted in November 2005 on BOTH LOANS. Freemont foreclosed on the loan. Judgment was entered in foreclosure for $168,000. It bid at the judicial sale for $168,000 and took the house in November 2006. It’s now a REO.
Household, as a junior mortgagee, had its secured interest EXTINGUISHED. It’s $25K secured interest in the property is GONE!
It’s now suing the FB in civil court on the note. However, the FB is broke, doesn’t have a home anymore, or any assets. He’s basically judgment proof. All he has is a paycheck on a salary of $45K or so a year.
Household got screwed, royally. They’ve basically lost $25,000 on this FB.
The sub-prime market is IMPLODING. No wonder HBSC (the owner of Household) got so royally screwed yesterday. They put aside $10 BILLION DOLLARS because of FBs like the one I described above.
HAHAHAHAHAAAHAHAH!!!!
WaitinginOC posted a few days ago about the foreclosure process in California. Basically, the second and third lien holders are pretty much screwed as you described. mrincomestream is convinced these piggyback loan products will not go away, but when enough of these second and third tier lenders get hosed, they will either stop making these loans or charge 29.9% interest. Either way, downpayments will probably become necessary again.
They can obtain and prosecute deficiency judgments though and most of these idiots have incomes too high to file bankruptcy.
Besides, all these risks are modeled and hedged, ya know??
Makes you wonder if the upcoming disaster will cause them to “modify” their financial models.
Once downpayments (at least 10%) become the norm again, these prices won’t hold for twenty minutes. How many couples have $70K saved to put down on their BA $700K POS?? Everyone I know put down 5% or less, 1st mortgage, 2nd mortgage, IO.
I’d like to think the banks will once again require 20% down, documentation of income and assets, no credit card obligations, etc. But with all the greed out there, I’m not sure that will actually come to pass.
Lisa — I’m not just waiting for that (down payments) to happen, but also for shock and dismay in the MSM over such a “surprising” turn of events. Never saw it coming.
Losing large sums of money is a sure cure for greed.
Thanks, Chicago guy, for this story of how 2nd mortgagee lost all. In writing seconds (which I hardly ever do), or in considering the writing of seconds, I have always thought the only way to protect my interest in the event of default on the first would be, I would have to pay off the first so that I would be owed the whole sum of 1st and 2nd. Therefore the few seconds I have written were in situations where the sum of first and second appeared to be way less than 80% of total home value. I guess I could still get skrooed if the rates on the first went way up and a lot of excess interest accumulated before I became aware of the default on the first. Any other way I could get sk’d?
AZ — if the FB took a third and the third-holder filed first for foreclosure, would that do it? Or too implausible to imagine?
Most thirds wouldn’t do this. There is no benefit since 1 and 2 are entitled to the property before them.
The initial interest rate was 8.5%; the index after the change was the 6-month libor plus a margin of 6.99%.
This is the part of your story that made my jaw drop…an FB consented to an ARM that could adjust up to 7% higher than libor…with a cap of course…of 11.5%…OMG.
Let me guess - Mortgage Broker sold the FB by convincing him the rate would re-set on the down side. Like the libor would magically readjust to 1% because it was “in the bag” or some such baloney.
One of my fav new condo buildings:
http://www.swerdlowgroup.com/marina_rivi_intro.html
For anyone familiar with the area, that’s right off of Blue Heron blvd, in the heart of Riveria, not on Singer Island.
For anyone not familiar, the only way to describe this section of town is a cross between Bagdad and Columbia. Shootings are so commonplace they do not even make the news. Homeless people strolling up and down the streets. A thriving cocaine/crack/gun running empire in the making. I am pretty friendly with a Riviera cop; basically, don’t go anywhere in that town after 8PM (and get out of your car) if you expect to survive.
As this is right down the road from me, I have been by to look at it a few times. Unf***ng belivable.
The tower, as you drive up is to your right. As you pull into the complex, behind you there are dozens of crack houses, with dazed people roaming the streets at all hours of the day. The neighborhood, imho, could not be worse. Slum, run down, dangerous, drug infested, and utterly without redeeming quality. The only thing that could help here is to burn down about 10 city blocks in every direction.
Prices for these condos hover around 1M, in case anyone would like to move into the most dangerous city on the east coast, and live in the heart of the most dangerous section of that city.
If there is any exaggeration in there, it is only in the fact that I cannot accurately convey how bad this area is. If anyone else from the area has been there, hopefully they can take the baton and try to atriculate the “urban renewal” that is needed in this area. Crack dealers are afriad to drive past 9PM in this area.
Sorry, I do not want to exaggerate, I just found some of these selling in the 600-700K range. And they are pretty big 1500+ sq ft. This in no way fixes the problem; these units are worth; at MOST, 100 dollars/sq ft. There is just no reason to spend over 1/2 a million dollars to live in an area where you have to install bulletproof glass in your car to drive home at night.
You think it worse than Miami???, (I haven’t seen it but I road the tri rail into miami yesterday for the first time in daylight, and dear god there some scary areas)
Well, let’s just say, West Palm is one of the most dangerous cities in the US:
http://www.morganquitno.com/cit07pop.htm#25
I would rather walk through WPB with a sign that said “I hate black people” strapped to my back (think Die Hard) and a few kilo’s of cocaine strapped to my chest at 4AM on a Friday night, then I would walk outside of this building at 12 noon with body armor, an AK47, and a few hand grandes on my belt. I think my chances of survial in WPB are much higher.
Riveria is probably one of the least desireable areas on earth to live; it is truly the armpit of S. FL, with the only redeeming quaility being that it is close to better areas and not that big. The best thing that could happen for this building is a nuclear attack that destroyed every building in the surrounding area, but left it standing.
Yuk, yuk — so much for its proximity to Worth Avenue. That is roughly like comparing Pine Hills (”Crime Hills” to locals) in Orlando to Winter Park, and their respective policing.
MIke: I’m with you. I felt more comfortable driving in Detroit in a bright red Mark VIII than I did driving through Riveria. My mother used to own a condo on Singer Island and I remember encouraging her to get the hell outta there because of having to drive through Riveria. She sold and right after that a hurricane came through a totaled the place. I don’t think they have rebuilt because they were underinsured or the insurance company balked. She thanks me weekly since she now lives in Jupiter.
i live in the acerage which is 20 minutes from riviera ya its that bad been robbed at the okee tri rail for a 50 dollar chain
had to fight my way back to my car to avoid getting bottled with beer bottles real hoot go visit bring large caliber weapon you ll need it!
“For anyone not familiar, the only way to describe this section of town is a cross between Bagdad and Columbia. Shootings are so commonplace they do not even make the news. Homeless people strolling up and down the streets. A thriving cocaine/crack/gun running empire in the making.”
You just described the Inland Empire in So Cal.
Here are the crime stats:
http://rivierabeachfl.areaconnect.com/crime1.htm
I think the only way that rape could be low is that there is so much drug use in this area that people can’t “perform” or just are not interested in rape. That’s the only explanation I can come up with. Oh, and there are a few hookers on every block; that may reduce the number as well.
“For anyone not familiar, the only way to describe this section of town is a cross between Bagdad and Columbia. Shootings are so commonplace they do not even make the news. Homeless people strolling up and down the streets. A thriving cocaine/crack/gun running empire in the making
Mike, I don’t know how long you have lived in WPB but you have just described Delray Beach 20 years ago. It was that bad.
And south central, compton, etc.
Back in grad school I was asked to redline out a map of LA so that a Japanese tourist wouldn’t accidentally drive to an unsafe area. It shocked me what fraction of the city was in areas I wouldn’t send them into! Cest la vie.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Inland southern California— Just wait tell the Latino gangs discover the easy pickings in West LA. They will have to have National Guards come in. Want to bet who wins with a watch only policy! Remember they have rights.
I can vouche for Riviera Beach being Hell on Earth. I am originally from Indiana and it is every bit as scary as Gary, IN which is typically regarded as the armpit of America. No offense to such lovely areas as Watts, Compton and East St. Louis.
Last year when I went to the Marriott on Singer Island the hotel advised us to take PGA BLVD to get the the hotel because using the Blue Heron exit you would have to go there via “”Beirut” (aka Riveria Beach) and I had to leave my 357 home because I flew to Florida. The area is a sh*thole.
————-WHY IS IT ALWAYS THIS WAY IN AMERICA???????
Race
One race 29245 97.86%
White 8297 27.76%
Black or African American 20264 67.81%
American Indian and Alaska Native 43 0.14%
WHY CAN’T JUST ONE BLACK AREA BE AT THE TOP OF AMERICA’S SAFEST CITIES LIST?
———————————————–
Exactly how many times have you been to Colombia(get the spelling)?
“If anyone else from the area has been there, hopefully they can take the baton and try to atriculate the “urban renewal” that is needed in this area.”
i had my boat pulled at cracker boy boat works, right in the middle of the “hood” in riviera beach. had to stay overnight on board, the security guards warned me to lock up tight before they let the pit bulls out into the yard. that night two of the dogs were killed by thieves (didn’t spend another night at cracker boy). i would say the rape stats are low because the only women walking the streets in that are are hookers. it’s great that they’re trying to gentrify the area but the only thing that’s gonna gentrify that neighborhood is a neutron bomb.
When I had some free time before an (unsuccessful) job interview in WPB a few years ago, I spent a couple hours exploring the area. You hit the nail on the head about Riviera Beach–it looked awful. That is no place for a condo.
Considering the alleged glamour of Palm Beach, some parts of WPB are surprisingly run down. A female friend of mine who used to work in the county courthouse said that a security escort was advisable for staff leaving the building after 6:00 p.m.
If you take almost any side street in Palm Beach County from US One and go west you will be in some of the highest crime, most drug infested and hooker infested neighborhoods ever. That could be Riviera Beach, WPB (especially north of downtown), Lake Worth, Boynton and Delray. Heck, the gang bangers from the two Haitian gangs that shot it out Christmas Eve inside the Boynton Beach Mall were from NE Boynton Beach and the San Castle area just south of Hypoluxo Road in Lantana.
Driving down some of the numbered streets off Tamarind Avenue anywhere between the Amtrak Station and 25th street is a real adventure.
Oh, by the way, an earlier poster mentioned the “culture” of the Karvis Center, it’s a couple of hundred yards south of the Amtrak station
Yes, but you can park at Kravitz center and there are usually a lot of police when they have something going on there. It is close to I-95 for a quick exit. The area around there is OK in the daylight but it is not a place to “explore” or get lost in.
Hopefully these “shrewd Investers” left holding the Bag will be wearing their Bags on their heads with tiny eyeholes and a big red letter “S” for speculator when they look for financing their next leveraged PONZ scheme. Perhaps the banks or mortgage companies that DON’T fail will notice these Strange ‘In the Bag” people before the closings.
A flipper flopped in Ocala? Buaaaahahahaha!
They don’t call it “slow”-cala for nothing!
“He entered into a lease-with-an-option-to-buy transaction with a 30-something couple….”
Why would anyone take an option to buy a declining assest?
“Why would anyone take an option to buy a declining assest?”
I would, in one unlikely event: if the rent was true market rent anyway. Then the option is free, it encourages the owner to let his alligator eat even more before he gives up, and there is a small chance I could get a really good deal when he bellies-up later than he should have.
Why do people rent-to-own furniture and TV’s from Buddy’s Home Furnishings? Because they’re suckers with bad credit, that’s why.
The South is still full of people who live in profound ignorance, despite the day late and dollar short attempts to bring in modern schooling in the last few decades. It is truly shocking.
Everyone had probably already seen this:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-subprime9feb09,0,2419088.story?coll=la-home-headlines
Here are the key paragraphs:
As much as $800 billion of adjustable-rate mortgages will reset to higher payments this year, and 1 of 11 home loans is both adjustable and sub-prime, according to the Mortgage Bankers Assn.
“There could be a good chunk of borrowers with nowhere to go to get loans,” said Gast, who follows the industry for the Center for Financial Research and Analysis, a Rockville, Md., forensic accounting and due diligence firm with mutual funds, hedge funds and insurers as clients.
“It means a lot of people are going to lose their homes.”
“…1 of 11 home loans is both adjustable and sub-prime, according to the Mortgage Bankers Assn…”
As much of a curmudgeon as I am, I would not have expected this ratio to be this high.
…tick, tick, tick, boom.
It is a hell of a lot higher than that in Fl…..maybe 50%
Here’s one more from today’s paper:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-toll9feb09,1,2636349.story?coll=la-headlines-business&ctrack=1&cset=true
Here’s my question. If the developer failed to disclose to the buyer the true nature of the market (i.e property appreciation is caused by rampant speculation and is 100% guaranteed to drop at some point) can the buyer back out of the deal because of failure to disclose this detail? Remember, many or all buyers are purchasing properties based on the expectation of appreciation (and therefore profit).
No, IMO. Due diligence is not a one-party-only term. Formerly, it was known as common sense.
“and feel they were misled about some aspects of the property.”
I bet the real aspect they misled themselves about is that they could flip the house and make big money with little effort. So unless the contract says they will make a profit I don’t think they have much to stand on.
Coupla blurbs
Wall Street’s Dark Poole of Blood
St. Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole this morning said that while inflation should moderate this year, if the core rate settles above 2% then prepare for Fed action to bring it down.
Poole’s inflation comments are hardly news; inflation will likely moderate (which we believe is true since there isn’t any inflation), and he’s looking for a long-term Core PCE around the 1.5% level (with a settle above 2% viewed as unacceptable). Fine.
Rather, we want to focus on his housing comments.
We said yesterday that we believe almost everything these days - inflation, economic growth, bullish and bearish arguments for and against equities - revolves around whether or not housing has “stabilized.”
Poole noted this morning that the current housing slowdown has not occurred against the backdrop of an economy-wide recession, when especially large declines in real residential fixed investment typically occur.
He cited the customary datapoints supporting the “stabilization” thesis:
- New single-family home sales rose in December.
- National Association of Home Builders’ housing market index now at its highest level since July 2006
However, he added, “While recent data seem to point in a favorable direction, we must recognize that the housing market is not out of the woods yet.” We agree.
Moreover, in reading Poole’s speech, we came across the following paragraphs that somehow escaped notice of most media outlets. Rather than sounding positive, these comments are actually downright cautionary:
“A special word of caution is in order concerning housing data. Starts and permits data are routinely affected by weather variations, especially in the winter. To an unusual degree, sales data are affected by cancellations, which occur when buyers walk away from sales contracts. In published data, canceled sales are not subtracted from new sales to create a net sales series. Moreover, canceled sales are not put back into the data on the inventory of unsold new homes. Anecdotal reports clearly indicate that cancellations have been material. Thus, official data overstate net sales of new homes and understate the inventory of unsold homes.”
Poole also added the following: “[F]avorable recent news on the inventory of existing homes for sale may well have been influenced by discouraged homeowners taking their properties off the market rather than by actual sales.”
Ok, so has housing stabilized or not? Well, this sounds definitive to us: “It remains to be seen what this year will bring, but at a minimum we can say that we do not have evidence as yet that home prices have stabilized.”
and
2. 100% Prime Subprime Complacency?
According to Bloomberg, an index of credit-default swaps surged yesterday on news of problems at HSBC and New Century, suggesting the perceived risks of owning low-rated subprime mortgage bonds is rising.
The so-called ABX Index, an index used to create swaps based on 20 BBB- rated bonds sold in the second half of 2006 and consisting of home loans to the riskiest borrowers fell 1.7% on Thursday, the lowest since it was created on Jan. 18, Bloomberg said.
The ABX index’s level means that investors must now pay about $728,000 per year to protect $10 million of bonds against default when using the contracts, the article said.
Ok, this is the subprime market. There’s a reason high-risk borrowers are, um, high-risk, right?
Check out this letter from Minyan “Dale” Griffith:
“I agree with the idea that the sub-prime is going to cause problems for someone somewhere, but let me a bit cynical. Seems to me that most of this paper has been sold to Asia - maybe Asian buyers didn’t understand they’re getting BBB- paper amalgamated into A paper. So they takes it on the chin. They take billions and billions of these blows to the chin. They got lots of cash. So who cares back here in the USA? HSBC? Please. Just expressing the other view and the joys of derivatives and global diversification. There will only be small and isolated problems.”
The problem we have with this “cynical” view is, one, who says it’s mostly Asian buyers who have exposure here?, and two, globalization isn’t a one way street where risk gets “diversified” away as if by magic.
As well, we find it interesting that so many are so willing to toss aside subprime problems as “minor and isolated” in an economy levered so highly to consumption.
Minyanville Professor John Succo has written extensively on how consumption levels in the U.S seem to be increasingly reliant on upper end spenders, as opposed to a broad spectrum of consumption across all levels of income and (to put it bluntly) borrowing.
Oh, just great, piss China off. If they get mad enough they will wipe their arses with the 1T$US in treasuries they own, getting what they can for them. Nice strategy, wonder who made it happen? Any guesses…..big banks? could be.
Any one see the fanning of international hatred here?
I’d have thought the difficulties will be from Asian countries OTHER than China.
“A special word of caution is in order concerning housing data. Starts and permits data are routinely affected by weather variations, especially in the winter. To an unusual degree, sales data are affected by cancellations, which occur when buyers walk away from sales contracts. In published data, canceled sales are not subtracted from new sales to create a net sales series. Moreover, canceled sales are not put back into the data on the inventory of unsold new homes. Anecdotal reports clearly indicate that cancellations have been material. Thus, official data overstate net sales of new homes and understate the inventory of unsold homes.”
I think this was put in to cover him when he gets called in front of Congress and is asked why the data was screwed up, that way he can say “Well I did mention it, so don’t blame me”
New Century Financial (NEW) just went into free fall. The stock, which began the day at 19.30 is falling toward 17. As you all remember it was at 30 before announcing its “restatement of financials” news on Wednesday.
That puppy is crashing. Should we send a grave blanket?
“Coast Bank is allowing customers to ‘re-title’ or reconfigure large-denomination certificates of deposit with no penalty. The large certificates of deposit, time deposits of $100,000 or more and often called ‘Jumbo’ CD, constitute about 25 percent of the troubled bank’s total deposits.”
“It is an unusual step and one taken to maximize the availability of FDIC coverage for the deposits, said bank analyst Jim Schutz. Re-titling is very rare. Schutz has only seen the move ‘a couple of times in my very, very long career.’”
It seems ludicrous that investors can repackage their “investments” so that Uncle Sucker is on the hook for their stupidity. So much for land of the free and home of the brave.
And people wonder why I’m a libertarian….
“And people wonder why I’m a libertarian….”
Amen, brother.
The Spin:
“‘We’re faced with having to pay these high land prices and construction prices and still build affordable’ units, said Steve Patterson, CEO of Orlando-based Zom Inc.”
—————————————————————-
The Truth:
“We’re not able to flip these POS units for obscene profits anymore…”
Contract Law 101, late in Lesson One:
Specific Perfornance. Only fools would enter contracts where one of the parties could just walk with no threat at all of being made to perform according to what’s written in it.
It used to be a common practice for buyers to walk on the deposit, but that was when the damage to the seller was relatively negligible. Even the social-justice types might be happy, because sellers aren
t likely to sue people who have no money at all.
Hello All: I’d like to get your thoughts on the following addendum to a sales contract my sister just received. To me it has scam written all over it. She told me the original “buyer”, who is also a title agent, is going to walk with $20,000 and the new buyer wants $30,000 cash as a cushion for the mortgage payment. Even if that were true, it is quite obvious they can’t afford the house. The real kicker here is that they got an appraisal for $350,000. There’s NO way that house legally appraises for $350,000. In the height of the market it was only $320,000. There are better houses available in close proximity to hers that are priced at $350,000, but not selling. Not suprisingly, this is taking place in Miami. I obviuosly changed the names, but here’s the addendum:
Please note that the above referenced property is being purchased at @299,900 by Jim and Jane from Mary as per the sales contract dated January 20th 2007. Upon closing there will be a simultaneous transfer from the new owners to Barbara in the amount of $350,000.
By signing below all parties are acknowledging that they are aware of the simultaneous transfer.
Honestly, what do you or your sister care?
If she gets the money from the sale, what happens after the sale isn’t her problem.
Trust me, it’s not her that’s going to go to jail if anyone is caught. It will be hte title guy and the buyer.
Wow. That’s certainly not a comment I would have expected on this blog. Nevertheless, I’ll tell you why I care. I care because this is exactly the kind of scam that has been continually perpetuated, thereby helping to cause and maintain this insane housing bubble. The bank will probably wind up losing money. Other buyers in the area will lose because they will think it’s a REAL comp. And these scams keep this bubble afloat. I could go on and on. That you don’t know why we should care shows your ignorance and indifference.
Dude, spare us the righteousness. You aren’t going to save the housing market from imploding, and you certainly aren’t going to win any awards for pointing out fraud in the market.
If someone is dumb enough to give your sister her asking price, she should take it. It might be the last decent offer she receives for the place.
She received 3 full price offers because her price is reasonable when compared to other similar homes in her area. I’m not looking for any awards. What I have posted hereon is no different than what many observers here have posted. I’m not going to get into some childish rant with you. You’ve missed the question anyway. I wanted to know if others thought it was the type of scam that has been keeping this market afloat.
She received 3 full price offers because her price is reasonable
Not trying to be a d^ck but if this is true why not go with an offer that is clean.
Because the others have moved on. The current “buyer” just came with this addendum in the 23rd hour. They have the right to assign it, but not change the price. So, now she would have to put it up for sale again then wait another 3 weeks to see how the next deal would work out if she gets a buyer immediately. Time is of the essence here.
Just ask that politician lady from Kansas City; the FBI told her she was under investigation the same day she signed/sold her house in a mortgage fraud deal.
Yep and an appraiser aquaintance of mine has her on tape trying to bribe him. The FBI has it now.
Acknowledging the fraud is sooooooooo stupid!
Why would you have her admit to knowing about a fraud!!! Shit man, this would be the worse thing you could do!!!
If it’s a big deal to her don’t take the deal.
It is the most ignorant thing to implicate her knowledge of and being a party to the fraud!!
Either
1)take the deal and hope for the best (my advice) never EVER acknowledging she knew of the fraud. “DUH, I thought this was the way it’s done. The lender (broker, agent, etc.) didn’t have see anything wrong with it. I am no a RE agent, I relied on the professionals.”
or
2)don’t take the deal and risk your sister losing big money!
Your plan is not an option!!!!
It is the worst of all options-ie. admiting to knowledge of a fraud and being a part to it!
It seems ignorance is quite rampant on these boards. You didn’t pay attention to my initial question either. I wanted opinions on whether others thought it was fraud or if it were commonplace. That’s it. I believe it’s fraud. She said nothing to no one. The bottom line is that it will show that she sold the house for $299,900 and it was then sold for $350,000. What part of that can you not understand?
If you think it’s fraud, it probably is. There are many places you can call, including free ones, that will clue you in. No regular on Ben’s blog ever condones or encourages fraud or abetment of it in any way. To the contrary, many of us are pissed that house prices are out of whack, in part, because of it.
Thank you. It seems that the few here that would be willing to look the other way were the only ones who posted before your comment. What you stated was a lot more like I was expecting from posters here.
Trust your instincts. It’s fraud, and you don’t want your sister to be any part of it.
“The condo craze is over, developers declared here today.”
If there is one thing I would like to see the REIC do at the end of this bubble is re-brand “condos”. I f-ing hate the word “condominium” and even more so the shortened version.
When I owned 1/42nd of a buidling (aka “condo”), I refused to call it such. I called it “the apartment I own” or “my flat”.
No one else in the world calls them by that name, and few New Yorkers would dare call their beloved owned apartments a “condo”.
Besides, by the end of all of this, the following should reign true:
Condo=MoneyBleedingBallAndChain
Rant over.
Finally an OCALA story!! We were feeling ignored!
Not a Gator: Both those commercials annoy me too
Want some ocala/marion county stats;
Number of deeds changing hands last week (in sat’s 2/4 paper): approx 165, or 650 to 700 per month. Thats ALL deeds, land, commercial etc
Number of houses/condos for sale on MLS as of Jan 31st?: approx 6600, thats single family residences ONLY. Over 9,000 pieces of undeveloped land.
From today’s (2/9) Ocala Star Banner
Median income, 2003: $33,300, Median price of a house 2003: $91,900 or 2.76 times median income
Median income, 2006: $35,900, median price of a house 2006: $167,800 or 4.67 times median income
In 3 years house prices went up 83%. I’m figuring the increase from $91,900 to $167,800.
They do no mention where they got these stats but they seem in line with other research I’ve done on this area.
You know what comes next: “The government has got to do something to make housing affordable”. In other words, taxpayer dollars have to subsidize house prices. In still other words taxpayer dollars have to bail out speculators, builders who overbuilt, etc.
Fortunatly, the bureaucracy moves glacially and by the time they do anything, the market will take care of itself.
God forbid the Gubment get involved.
“… taxpayer dollars have to subsidize house prices.”
But they already do in so many ways. How many times do you have to beat a dead horse to make it run again?
By the way Ocala/Marion county population, as estimated by the EDC (Economic Developement Commission) as of Dec, 2006: 315,000
So divide by 2 and you get roughly 158,000 households
The renter/homeowner ratio is 45% rent / 55% own, so there is one home on the MLS for every approx 24 TOTAL households in Ocala / Marion County. And approx half are renters. The MLS listings do not include a lot of Builder Inventory, FSBO’s, a lot of repo’s and houses /
condos simply pulled off the market.
I figure the conservative numbers of residences for sale would be approx 8,000. Our pop grew by, at the most 13,000 last year, or at the most 6,500 housesolds, approx 30% (1,950) of which, can afford the median priced home.
I’m going to go out on a limb here (I’m being sarcastic) and say we have a surplus of inventory….and there is still building going on.
Several other relevant and interesting points.
1- School enrollments in most Florida counties have been below expectations for 2005 and 2006 (Front page article, St. Pete Times, 8/26/2006 “Where are all the students?”)
2- The “U-Haul Factor”. What does it cost to rent a truck one way from Miami to say Raleigh, N.C., Nashville, Tenn etc, compared to the cost to rent it one way the opposite way. I don’t know that answer but American Van Lines reported that they moved slightly more people out of Florida than in, for 2006.
Florida’s population is not growing at the rate everyone here would have you believe. In fact since 1980 Florida’s population has grown between 350,000 and 410,000 per year. That ain’t bad, but the “rate” of growth is slowing.
Two axioms spouted by Florida Realtors as Gospel are 1- Population is “exploding” and 2- The retiring Baby Boomers are moving here.
Neither is supported by fact. The baby boom started in 1946 and if you postulate that Boomers will all retire EARLY at 62, that won’t be until 2008!!!! So Boomers had little or no impact on the presant situation, save the Moron Speculator Boomer, for which I have no sympathy.
God, I am tired of hearing the “Population/Baby Boomers” mantra. My ears hurt!!
The facts and numbers say otherwise.
The real estate market will bottom by late 2007, early 2008 and remain stagnet for 3 to 5 years. It may cause a mild recession.
But it will be the best opportunity most of us will see in our lifetimes to make money at Real Estate. Pay attention. Research!!
Make money. Remember, timing is everthing!!
Good Luck!!!!!
Incidentally, I do not hide behind a fake name. mhmosieur@yahoo.com
Mike Mosieur
“But it will be the best opportunity most of us will see in our lifetimes to make money at Real Estate. Pay attention. Research!!
Make money. Remember, timing is everthing!!”
But money is NOT everything, I really hope your post was a lark and not a serious comment from a bubble watcher.
If it is serious though you really need to get your head examined.
Your statement ” best opportunity most of us will ever see in our lifetimes to make money at Real Estate”. That is all of the bubble makers before you said.
I think your statement is filled with lusting, greed and you have sickened me today.
I need to go throw up now.
SKB
SKB; Go throw up. I am an unabashed capitalist! If you have a problem with making money, kiss my a**
It was not a “Lark” (whatever that is) I make MONEY. No apology, no regret.
I did not say :”Money is everything”. I said “Timing is everything” If you don’t want to make money, don’t. I don’t give a s**t!!. I want to and will make money from others stupidity…and I will crow about it!! In fact, this is the fourth bubble I’ve lived through and I exploited the other 3!! If you’re stupid, it ain’t my problem!!! Money will be made from this. If it sickens you, vote for Hillary.
I didn’t create the problem. Will I exploit it??? You can bet your a** I will.
Gee, I’m sorry to offend…you’re so sensitive…you can live in one of my many garages. Do I have to go to “rehab” now because I offended you???? Kiss my fat, white, polish/french a**
It’s an easy bet very few others on this blog share your dips**t liberal/socilaist views.
Go Capitalism!!!!!! MAKE MONEY, TIMING IS EVERYTHING, SKB is a tree hugging liberal.
I don’t hide behind initials
Mike Mosieur, mhmosieur@yahoo.com. Bring it!
http://www.mosieurbusinessbrokers.com
Mike,
I’m a capitalist also, and someday wish to make alot of money (which is the one thing I haven’t done in life). I repair cars for a living, I own my own business. I’ve been slammed by other people on this site for being middle class and for working with my hands (I’ve been called a grease monkey and loser by posters). I hope you can have a change of heart and not take advantage of other people’s stupidity or greed. This has been humanity’s problem since the beginning. It does not pay as good, but maybe you can make a living by educating people on how to make good investment decisions that don’t involve fleecing little old ladies.
Hey, Warren Buffett is one of the richest individuals in the world, and he didn’t get that way by being a slimebag or robber baron. It is (still!) possible to have integrity in business.
The problem with business today is that it’s too short-term focused. So what if you ruin the company long-term? You made the quarter, cash out, everyone goes home to their mcmansion and yacht.
I think when people stayed at companies longer a lot of this crap didn’t happen because the old-timers would mentor new workers and kind of show them the ropes. Today everything is too “fast” and you get absurdities like PayPal, which is not a bank, providing what look suspiciously like banking services, except that they can take your money whenever they feel like it, for whatever stupid excuse, and won’t give it back until you cry “lawyer!” From what I’ve heard, PayPal was started and run by a bunch of young buck DotCom’ers who didn’t know s*** about banking.
Clearview; You sound like a good guy. There is no shame in working for living. No, I don’t feel compelled to share my invetment strategies. Am I exploiting “little old ladies”? If I have the oppotunity to buy a property below market, I don’t really care who owned it previously.
Not a Gator; So how does Buffet make money? Does he buy stocks at a bargain? Yes. He buys stocks low. Were any of these shares of stock bought at a higher prices buy “little old ladies”, retirement funds, etc who sold at a lose when he picked up his bargain? When a stocks value declines, a lot of “little people” loose equity. When Mr. Buffet buys these shares is he a robber baron? When he bought out Fruit of the Loom, all of the common stock holders lost all their stock. How many “little old ladies” lost on that one? He’s a capitalist. So am I. I never broke a law nor have I betryed my ethics.
Answering back to morons is getting tiring. Clearview, you are not a moron. Nothing wrong with hard work.
“For Patti Southall of Fort Myers, the town house was going to be a place to live when she and her family moved to Fort Myers from California. She snagged one of the models in October 2004, when they first went on sale. But she said delays in the building process made her decide to forfeit the deposit and buy another house. ‘Obviously, I didn’t need it as a primary residence,’ she said. ‘So much time’s gone by and obviously, the market’s not moving like it was. Now, I can’t sell that property for $265 (thousand) if my life depended on it,’ Southall said.”
In 2005 there was a diarrhea market, but now it is constipated. And constipation makes it awfully hard to dump flip homes.
More lies from the Real Whores:
http://www.tcpalm.com/tcp/real_estate/article/0,,TCP_1616_5270706,00.html
“I don’t give a s**t!!. I want to and will make money from others stupidity…and I will crow about it!! In fact, this is the fourth bubble I’ve lived through and I exploited the other 3!”
How exactly are you going to make money from others? The stupidity has already happened, perhaps in time you can exploit generation Z as the boomers, X and Y are all tapped out.
“The earth we abuse and the living things we kill will, in the end, take their revenge; for in exploiting their presence we are diminishing our future”
SKB
SKB:
You said “How exactly are you going to make money from others? The stupidity has already happened, perhaps in time you can exploit generation Z as the boomers, X and Y are all tapped out.”
The “stupidity” creates the opportunity. Real Estate prices went up at an unsustaiable rate, reached an insane level and are now plummeting. The market will recover, but not before there are some really great deals to be had.
How exactly are the Boomers, X and Y “tapped out”? Not everyone will get their clock cleaned. In fact, most people did
not sell or buy during the bubble years and if they did not everyone lost. They may feel a bump or two as the imploding Real Estate market sends some ripples through the economy. In fact a mild general recession is likely
With sales down 30% year over year, that means that 70% of sales are still happening. However, a 30% decline in sales, along with historically high levels of inventory and tightening lending criteria will lead to major declines in prices.
Don’t interpret this as a Realtor saying “Buy now, the worst is behind us”. I think I was accused of that earlier. For the record, the worst is ahead of us.
The Real Estate market will eventually correct and a lot of people, but not most people will lose big time. It will eventually stabalize and get back to normal. When all this will happen is the question. Remember timing? You have to buy right.
This blog is about the bubble but if you read the posts, most of these people are capitalists. They’re on the sidelines waiting for a good deal.
You also said “The earth we abuse and the living things we kill will, in the end, take their revenge; for in exploiting their presence we are diminishing our future”.
Who’s abusing the earth or killing anyone? What a totally irrelevant comment.
Hillary Clinton called. She needs a tree hugged
I don’t hide behind initials. At anyrate, I see no further need to respond to your ramblings.
I wish you success in what ever it is you do.
“The market will recover, but not before there are some really great deals to be had.”
I do not share that belief that their will be great deals to be had. All l see are the prices of homes going back to what they are actually worth, so how is that a good deal?
If you believe that you are as stupid as the person who shops at “Winners” and sees clothes “marked down” 70% and thinks they are getting a good deal when in essence they are only paying a fair price instead of a over inflated, unrealistic price that no one would pay if the price didn’t say 70% off.
So what now, since they are reduced are you going to buy ten of them because they are a good deal?
You are the one that said “the best opportunity most of us will see in our lifetimes to make money at Real Estate”.
Which to me sounds like you can not wait to see the bubble get started again so you can “make money”. I really can not see this size of a bubble ever happening again in our lifetime. Thus your statement doesn’t make any sense what so ever at all.
““The earth we abuse and the living things we kill will, in the end, take their revenge; for in exploiting their presence we are diminishing our future”.
The earth meaning all things of this world, including the material possessions such as homes. Killed are the spirits, hopes and dreams, their future.
I looked at my kids through this credit nightmare and wondered if home ownership had truly passed them by for good. I visioned 100,000,000 starter homes for their futures.
Sorry that was to deep for you to understand, like you said I am the one that is “too sensitive”.
So Mike Mosieur, if that is your real name and not some fake name you made up.
You need not bother to respond to my post as I will not bother to read as waste my time with you and your greedy, pathetic insulting, attitude.
SKB (my screen name which makes sense to use considering all of the nut cases (like you) on the internet)
“‘I don’t think there’s any mystery to it,’ said Greg Hallam, president of the Mortgage Bankers Association of Florida. ‘We lenders don’t tell people ‘no’ often enough…”
Maybe lenders should be saying ‘no’ more often? What a brainiac; no wonder why he is the president of the Mortgage Bankers Association of Florida.
tcm_guy: As a Licensed Mortgage Broker I can tell you that there are rules, laws and criteria in place that make it pretty clear when lenders are supposed to say “no”. A better statement for Mr. Hallam would be “We lenders ignored the critera and didn’t say “no” often enough so we could make big commissions”. It’s real cear when an applicant does not qualify. I saw a guy who was 7 months out of Chap 7 bankruptcy get a mortgage from another Broker. I wouldn’t touch that one.
Those Brokers that played by the rules lost some commissions but about now we’re feeling pretty good. I know Mortgage Brokers, Realtors and Appraisers who are waiting for the other shoe to drop. The day of reckoning is upon us.
“‘There were a lot of conversions in Orlando, for instance, but there is now very little appetite for a $250,000 garden unit,’ said Steve Patterson, an Orlando builder…”
In a few years there will not be much of an appetite for a $50,000 closet unit either.