“It’s Correction Time, So Hold On To Your Hat”
It’s desk clearing time for this blogger. “With fewer people relocating to Virginia and a large inventory of new and existing homes, builders are halting groundbreaking on new projects in Prince William County. According to the NVAR, there was a 3.99 percent decrease in average selling price for homes in January compared with the same time last year, but was relatively better than December 2006 in which the average selling price was down 10 percent compared with December 2005.”
“Robert Lang, co-director of the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech said that does not necessarily mean that an upswing in the market is nearing. ‘When it first drops, it’s in free fall for a moment,’ Lang said.”
“Atlanta has a saturated 11.2-month supply of homes and condos for sale, up from a 7.2-month inventory in December last year. Many homes are being sold by lenders who took over the properties. ‘A lot of Atlanta’s resale inventory is coming from foreclosures,’ says Mike Wright of the Atlanta Board of Realtors. ‘There’s certainly concern too much new condo product is coming on board.’”
“Data released Wednesday by the Illinois Association of Realtors confirmed what many agents said they knew: Business plunged in the fourth quarter of last year.”
“‘It’s still going to be very much a buyer’s market,’ said Plainfield agent Lisa Berendt, who added that the increased activity she expected after the Super Bowl hasn’t materialized, partly because of the weather. ‘Anybody who is thinking they’re going to get top dollar … right now is in for a big disappointment.’”
“Existing home sales in Wisconsin were the second highest on record last year, but a high inventory of unsold homes spawned a buyer’s market. ‘It won’t surprise me if 2007 looks an awful lot like 2006,’ economist David Clark said. ‘ I don’t think we’ll be breaking any statewide records.’”
“As a full time Realtor in the Indianapolis area, I was puzzled by the Feb. 8 article, ‘December home sales fell 14 percent.’ How about this headline instead, ‘National home sales down 8 percent last year, Indy area only down 1 percent?’”
“But if you are looking for something negative, let’s talk about home foreclosures in Indiana. Big production builders selling cheap homes on tiny lots for too much money to uninformed buyers. Our tax dollars also promote this by current bankruptcy laws and government programs like HUD.”
“Add to that a lack of proper oversight of lenders who make loans to unqualified buyers and this culminates in our epidemic foreclosure rates and the resulting overall residential real estate market depreciation, ruined neighborhoods, and higher property taxes for the rest of us.”
The Norway Post. “In his annual address on Thursday, Central Bank Governor Svein Gjedrem said that the bank’s key interest rate will be gradually increased to 5 per cent. He also warned young property buyers against taking chances. In his opinion, housing prices may fall.”
From India. “Realty and construction stocks fell to three-month lows on the BSE, with investors offloading the scrips in the last few trading days. Ansal Buildwell, Lok Housing, Tantia Constructions and Peninsula Land fell over 50 per cent each.”
“Rahul Rege of Brics Securities said it was a case of exuberance becoming rational now. ‘I think there was too much excitement over realty stocks based on their future earnings,’ he said.”
“A derivatives index used to bet on bonds backed by the riskiest U.S. mortgages fell for the fourth straight weekly decline as more lenders reported losing money. Prices for credit-default swaps linked to 20 securities rated BBB-, and created in the second half of 2006 declined 2.6 percent this week, and are down 15 percent since being introduced Jan. 18, traders say.”
“The decline means an investor this week would have paid more than $950,000 a year to protect $10 million of bonds against default. ‘We’ve yet to see the floor on where these things can go,’ said Paul Colonna, a fixed-income manager for GE Asset Management, which oversees $199 billion. ‘And it’s not based on housing data or performance data’ on mortgages in the bonds.”
“Last week, Realtors reported that existing- home sales in North Texas declined for the eighth consecutive month. The Metroplex has a glut of new homes sitting vacant, one of the highest mortgage delinquency rates in the country and a long run of rising foreclosures.”
“It’s correction time in the housing market, so hold on to your hat. ‘It’s going to affect the economy, period,’ says Jim Gaines, regional economist at Texas A&M. When he spoke to a group of (builders) recently, he heard a mix of resignation and gallows humor. ‘Builders were saying if you hadn’t gone under a few times, you just haven’t been around here long enough,’ Gaines says.”
“Glenn Crellin, at Washington State University, said the drop in sales and new home building permits likely makes the Tri-Cities market buyer-friendly. ‘There’s a lower level of sales and increasing inventories, so buyers have more choices and likely, individual sellers are going to say they can’t get the price for their home that they could a year ago,’ he said.”
“Joel Hill, a job superintendent for Aho Construction, agreed with that assessment. ‘If I had my choice, we would be back where we were (two years ago),’ he said. ‘We are hungry. Buyers have a lot more choices right now.’”
Another great week! My thanks to those who support this blog. Please check back this weekend for news, your market observations and topics.
What amazes me is the fact that there are STILL, STILL people out there paying $869K on homes…
My friend just put an offer on a house in the Valley area (Los Angeles for $880K….the house price listed was $925K.
To buy this house, they are a family of 6…him, his parents, his wife, kid, and grandmother.
They are renting out his grandmother’s paid off apartment, they are selling their current condo for a hopeful $300K profit.
This is what people are doing now to buy homes in So Cal…regular working couples who live by themselves have no chance…will they ever? And why would they even want to stay here anymore anyway?
“…regular working couples who live by themselves have no chance…”
Imagine being a regular working single.
“Imagine being a regular working single.”
I’m living it. And with a big dog who needs a big yard, it aint easy.
You need to move. Vote with your feet
Hey, I’m single and have animals. Same problem. I moved to lovely New Mexico and have a much nicer house in a much nicer neighborhood than I ever had in California. Plus, people are friendlier here. And it’s less crowded. Stores are great. Jobs are good. Weather’s great.
It was nice to say “adios, California.” Yup - I was born there, but just couldn’t afford a nice neighborhood on a single salary.
Ditto
Another future foreclosure I am afraid!
Hard to keep all those peeps together and earning income for the next 30 years(or whatever the loan term is).
$11,000.00 per year just in property taxes.
I can remember the late 70’s and early 80’s when the Valley was still a nice place to live…”like oh my god” “gag me with a spoon”
“Los Angeles for $880K” LMAO
I was on the beach in my bathing suit in Santa Monica today at 1:15 PM. Didn’t see one drop of snow. What kind of weather did you have today???
I’d rather spread my lounge chair in a local garbage dump than a beach in Santa Monica. There are very few places left on the So Cal coast that qualify as a beach.
You might as well be in a cesspool if you actually go in the ocean from Santa Monica up through Malibu.
Talk to the surfers, they are acutely aware that they are bathing in rich people’s sh!t when they surf at Malibu.
Yes, the weather was nice here today. Wife went to New York last week and she cant wait to get back to LA. There is a premium for living here, but its 50% more than it should be IMO.
Although…..
*must get image of davidcee half naked on beach out of my mind*
“Wife went to New York last week and she cant wait to get back to LA.”
I’m sure we will be happy when she’s gone. Thank her for me.
cola thru nose moment
Is skin cancer worth $800K ? Some of us enjoy a change of seasons.
I hate the sun.
The sun is entirely over-rated.
I’m from Pittsburgh. I can’t deal with direct sunlight.
Yo, Mo! Where yo been?
I’m a native San Diegan and I prefer the seasons too. I love it here in Toronto and hopefully we will be moving to upstate NY in a year or so.
Yes! The traffic on the 10was wonderful! Wide open. Oh and the parking was easy and cheep! Oh and those wonderful newcomers! They are such nice people! They leave their crappy attitudes and foul smells back home.
I swear the freeway is a parking lot!! That how fast the traffic flows in LA. Uggh, and the North County in Sandy Eggo is as bad as LA now. The day before Thanksgiving we left San Diego at 1:50 in the afternoon and we arrived at Dodger Stadium at 9:20 that evening. 7 and a half hours for what should have been a max 2 hours trip. And I didn’t stop once, not even to pee.
What was going on in Dodger Stadium at 9pm on the day before Thanksgiving?
Hopefully you were wearing a diaper like that crazy astronaut.
What was going on in Dodger Stadium at 9pm on the day before Thanksgiving?
Stones concert. It was supposed to start at 8. They delayed coming on because of traffic. Concert started about 2 minutes after we got to our seats.
And no, no diapers. Eeew. I held it. A lot of the young girls went behind the guardrails on the side of the freeway.
that’s hot
People in NYC who can afford the equivalent of Santa Monica spend a lot of time either skiing or in the Caribbean. Those most prized place in Socal is not typical.
“People in NYC who can afford the equivalent of Santa Monica spend a lot of time either skiing or in the Caribbean.”
Santa Monica, what a paradise. Bwahahahaha. That is great. I was there and couldn’t wait to get the hell out of that place. I love the Promenade. There is nothing like high-end shopping with bums sitting on every bench making you feel uncomfortable. The gang-banging looking Hispanics that were everywhere also made me feel real safe. And at night it was so great. You couldn’t see 20 feet in front of you for all the smog or fog or whatever it is. And the beach by the pier looked like it had been relocated from Mexico.
That Santa Monica sure was a nice place. I won’t mention the old guy that ran over 20 people at an open market the week after I was there. Paradise, indeed.
“I won’t mention the old guy that ran over 20 people at an open market the week after I was there.”
Unfortunately it was more like ran over hundreds, killing ten. Nah, no overcrowding down there.
I suspect that all this vitriol and testament is proof that 95% of our population is already living in, or very near to, the place they belong. Seems to me that it should be a pretty easy concept to grasp.
He only stopped because there were so many bodies stuck under the car that the tires weren’t touching the pavement anymore
I lived in Santa Monica during the 80s and it was very cool. Nice rent control, rented apt for $200 on 6th and Wilshire, good party scene. After that, bought a sailboat (only thing I could afford) and lived in Marina del Rey for a while, which was nice, too. But then started going to hell and I moved out of Cali. Not only the place is a rip off but you have to compete with a gazillion people for a stupid job. My sister in law, who still lives there, was just visiting us and said that it’s becoming Mexico. She said that a Savons closed around her place and it was replaced with a Mexican supermarket called, “El Grande”. I’ve lived in many major metropolitan cities but it’s been hard to find a decent one these days. I’ve been saving a lot in order to get a citizenship in Switzerland (tax free), so I can give the finger to this Secret Society-New World Order-Council of Foreign Relations crap. This bunch of Skull & Bones freaks want us to be China’s and Mexico’s bitches, while their cronies laugh all the way to the bank.
This is a perfect picture of the Inland Empire…except use the name Gomez, Sergio, Juan, Jesus, Miguel - you get the ides.
…if the Lord Jesus has moved there, then it can’t be all bad. Jews are good for the comps.
LMFAO!!!
I bought TWO very profitable restaurants for less than that! Jeez…..and for a money pit instead of a money maker. Go figure……
Your comment illustrates how ridiculous this bubble is. People were so foolish with their money it’s frightening. They didn’t consider the lack of value in what they were purchasing.
Dan — good luck to you, but buying restaurants is way riskier, IMO, than buying houses. My daddy bought a restaurant, without telling me beforehand (while I was an MBA student and happened to be studying the restaurant business). He lost it all, because he was too trusting of his partner and because he didn’t have family in the place 100% of the time it was open. It’s all relative. The ONLY way you could make money on two restaurants that you did not staff heavily with family is that you bought chain outlets that sell measured portions, IMHO.
It was McDonald’s……worked hard….did well….retired at 52
Chip; Restaurants have the highest failure rate of any other type of business. Incidentally, do you know what’s second? Residential home contractors.
If an experienced, well capitalized Restaurant Buyer, who has lots of previous experience buys an existing, profitable restaurant, the business almost never fails. There are no stats on this particular set of circumstances, but in my experience it’s 80% plus.
The thing that drags the stat down and makes restaurants the highest failure risk are the first time buyers and start ups. They almost always fail. Buying a franchise lessens the risk, but not by a whole lot if it’s a start up in an unproven location and not established.
Also, Dan bought MacDonald’s. That’s a license to print money.
I’ve lived in LA for much of my life. I’m packing up the family and moving to Seattle in July, where we can rent a house in a nice neighborhood for $1500. It means leaving behind many friends and much of my family, yet it was one of the easier decisions I’ve ever made. To find a comparable place in LA right now we’d have to spend over 3000, and even that wouldn’t guarantee some place nice. (To clarify, we’d have to live on the Westside where most of my peeps live). Where I’ll be in Seattle (the Bryant/Ravenna neighborhood) I’ll be able to bike to school at UW (second career in school psych) and my little girl will be living on a street where kids play, the neighbors know each other, etc. Besides the strict issues of cost in LA (which are horrifying), traffic has become so mindboggling bad that it makes it very difficult to live outside of a proscribed area where one works and socializes. I have friends in Pasadena and Silverlake who might as well live in San Diego considering the amount of time (zero) I see them.
Which is all a very long answer to nozferatu’s lament about LA, specifically about how anybody does it. In truth I don’t think many people do.
PS - to the folks in Seattle, no, I am not an equity locust, merely a housing bubble refugee.
Please leave your huge SUV and spinner hubcaps in Cali. There’s enough up here. Oh waith, you’re moving to Seattle, never mind.
Welcome to the PanNW. Get ready to trade 300+ days of sun to 300 days of clouds.
Good luck to you Lionel. I just left Seattle. Too expensive. I am sure it is less than LA, but not by as much as you think. It wasn’t voted the most expensive place to live in the US for nothing. I have not seen a nice rental in Ravenna for $1500 but if you found one, you’re lucky. The traffic in Seattle is some of the worst in the country. Good thing you’re used to gridlock, cause that’s what you’ll find should you tire of dodging drivers while riding your bike in pouring down rain. And be sure to watch over your kids while they are playing in that “safe neighborhood”. Seattle has more than it’s fair share of crime. Plenty of molestors, gangbangers, drug dealers, addicts, and prostitutes. While shopping at the grocery store right by UW one afternoon, I witnessed a strong armed robbery in broad daylight where some thugs dragged an old woman behind their car as they were stealing her purse. Tore her skin off from her wrist to her elbow. Seattle ain’t what it used to be.
“Seattle ain’t what it used to be.”
I can’t think of anyplace that is what it used to be. San Diego sure isn’t the sleepy little Navy town I grew up in anymore.
Thanks, Bear, I appreciate the insight. I always enjoy your posts.
I found three rentals on a half block of one street for between 1350 and 1800 in Bryant. Missed a 4 bedroom craftsman for the 1350 price by a couple of weeks. Wife wants to kill me. Even if I have to go higher, trust me, it can’t compare with LA.The 3000 I was quoting was for small houses in the Sunset Park area of Santa Monica. Some of it nice, some of it really, really not so nice. Have a good buddy who worked homicide on the westside, told me to watch myself around there. (The neighborhood I live in now in Pacific Palisades couldn’t be any safer, so I’m not expecting an upgrade in Seattle.) As to the traffic, I’m planning on Bryant specifically so I can avoid it almost completely.
Besides, there can’t be any place as bad as LA. People would just walk. If there’s anyone out there who is familiar with LA, but hasn’t been here in a while, the traffic is staggeringly awful. I have a buddy who commutes home from West LA (Bundy and Wilshire) to Pac Pal - it takes him 35 - 40 minutes! Even if he leaves at 4:30!!! A few years ago I was taking night classes at UCLA (15 minutes in no traffic) - one night it took my an hour and a half to get there!!!!!!!! I thought it was some strange one night phenomenon, but every night was nearly as bad. I finally gave up and would drive to UCLA around 3, study, etc. till my class started at 7. Sorry for the long post, but traffic here has become almost exponentially bad.
Thanks for meriting my contemptuous posts. Perhaps it is time I change my nickname to HousingCynic. Yes, rents are definitely cheaper in Seattle than LA. I have a sister in Westwood. She pays $1400 for a 1 bedroom apt. I am still very surprised you found something nice in Ravenna for $1350. And even further so, that you are seeing a lot of availability, as the housing prices have put pressure on rentals for the time being. From a safety standpoint, I know my sisters neighborhood in Westwood is pretty good for walking around at night. I don’t know that the same could be said for Ravenna. Traffic in Seattle will be better than you are used to because the distances traveled are so much less. And the option of riding your bike is a great one. I love Seattle. I think you will too. Some people have a hard time adjusting to the overcast skies, so if sun is your thing, it will definitely take some getting used to. Expect summer to come after the fourth of July and you’ll be OK. Again, good luck!
Pacific Palisades, or Pali, is a great place. I know LA from inside out, as I worked as a messenger when I was a kid. I’m not sure why your friend would take so long to go from Bundy to Pali, though. All he has to do is go up Bundy Dr. and make left on San Vicente Blvd, then take Allenford to Sunset Blvd. 10 minutes tops. I also studied Computer Graphics at UCLA.
That’s what I’m trying to say: traffic is impossible. He’s not an idiot, he knows where he has to get to. This change in traffic for him happened recently. It was a fifteen minute drive, then wham! I came home from 14th and Montana yesterday and it took me almost 20 minutes. Choke points on 26th (Allenford), seventh st. etc have made getting around horrendous.
“It’s correction time in the housing market, so hold on to your hat. ‘It’s going to affect the economy, period,’ says Jim Gaines, regional economist at Texas A&M.”
Well DUH!
Now that all the bad news is starting to flood in all the economists are finally willing to make public comments like this. It was only a few weeks ago that we had to extrapolate the real meaning out of quotes. Now the experts are saying it out right.
I’m reeeeeeal happy I finally decided to get a job (starting Monday, as I mentioned elsewhere recently). It’s probably not something I’d get laid off from either, unless I really suck at it.
Congratulations on your new job, Pass!!!
Bubbly, Take my advise, stay home and keep drinkin’
Blue Falcon — like you, I’ve noticed the same thing and am not surprised. Now that the horses/cows are out of the barn (and the insiders have made their profits), it’s time for the MSM to report it to the masses, many of whom are screwed because they just didn’t have a clue. On the one hand, it’s a real shame. On the other, it is probably the umpteenth time in history that this has happened. Greed will always overwhelm morality. Always. I suppose that’s why the Western movie, “Purgatory,” is one of my favorites.
“Now that the horses/cows are out of the barn…”
The only thing left is for the chickens to come home to roost.
According to the NVAR, there was a 3.99 percent decrease in average selling price for homes in January
Here are same-house price changes in Prince William County:
MLS #: PW6246722
http://www.homesdatabase.com/PW6246722
Current price (foreclosure): $509,900
Last sold price: $683,445 on 10/28/2005
Haircut: $173,545 or 25%
MLS #: PW6308173
http://www.homesdatabase.com/PW6308173
Current price (says “never been lived in): $509,900
“Conveyances”, according to the Prince William County Tax Database. The earliest one is the price from the builder, Ryan Homes (NVR).
$695,000 4/18/2006 K***
$560,000 11/14/2005 J***
$494,990 5/31/2005 M***
Haircut: $185,100 or 26.6%
Arwen: Read this article:
http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070205/25947_id.html?.v=1
Then go to this guys site:
http://www.plantomove.com/
Makes you want to puke.
Arwen:
Read this guys article. He’s from VA:
http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070205/25947_id.html?.v=1
Then go to his site:
http://www.plantomove.com/
Prepare to puke.
From today’s Daily Reckoning-
Foreclosures in the Denver area, we found out yesterday, are running at five times the level of 2003. According to the local news from Denver, there are whole neighborhoods that are sinking under foreclosure. In some of them, as many as one in four houses are in foreclosure. Imagine if you owned one of those that wasn’t. You couldn’t expect to sell it for a reasonable price - if you could sell at all.
hehehe…rebound in the spring….yeah right, DL.
And Denver isn’t really even on the radar screen of most RE news stories.
Just think of the horror if this becomes the story in SD, LA, LV, etc….
Not if, when.
TJ — ditto. Only when sales prices return to 2.5-3.0X annual income, will we be back to normal, IMO. Virtually everywhere in this country.
Houses must have been extremely expensive in Denver, because, in spite of all the bad news, asking prices sure remain high.
Denver was/is absolutely overpriced compared to rents and job opportunities. And there’s all sorts of available land everywhere, even up in the mountains.
BB — I think that’s where Robert Cote got his inspiration for the term, “Wishing Prices.”
Oh they’re all wishing prices alright. But still relative to selling prices in any given area.
Cheers everyone. Cocktail hour started early. Popped some of the bubbly. What an amazing week!
Party Foul 15 yards!
that is uncool to those of us on the Left Coast.
That sounds good (the drinking part). I’ll have to make a few mudslides for me and my wife and celebrate Valentine’s Day…
“‘It’s still going to be very much a buyer’s market,’ said Plainfield agent Lisa Berendt, who added that the increased activity she expected after the Super Bowl hasn’t materialized, partly because of the weather. ‘Anybody who is thinking they’re going to get top dollar … right now is in for a big disappointment.’”
Thank you Lisa.
To save yourself worry and work, just keep repeating that until 2010.
This will be a long slow process.
So this weekend is for a little apartment hunting.
A little negotiating… I’m just amazed at how many units are on the market.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Neil,
let us know how that goes. I need to renegotiate our lease in May and I have been reading and learning (from some of the bloggers here) how to get a better rent rate.
Chris — that is a really difficult position. In my case, I have an outstanding landlord who is decidedly cash-flow negative on this place, which has super-strong potential for long-term appreciation. I know that competitive leases are now priced 10-20% less than what I am paying. The cost of moving is more than a month’s rent, but the gaining landlord probably would throw that in, given the market. What to do? Often these decisions go beyond just the numbers. There is a lot to be said for having a great landlord, though I admit this is my first time renting in 40 years.
If no one wants to buy, why is it called a buyer’s market? Hmmm…
It should be called a, Dead Buyers Market, because all the buyers seem to be dead.
Maven, your killin’ me!! ROTFLMAO!!
I guess I would call it a Liars market, as the only ones still interested in actually doing any type of housing transactions are Realtors.
I was blown away by the increase in new NODs and Foreclosures in San Diego:
http://piggington.com/motivated_sellers_abound#comment
http://www.salagram.net/end1.jpg
Hey get this — This seems like a way for home owners with equity who are certain that their home value is going to plummet in the coming months to gett cash now and shuffle some of the risk onto this brilliant new company:
http://www.rex-inc.com/faqs.php
http://www.investmentnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070212/FREE/70212011
“Real Estate Equity Exchange Inc. will give a consumer cash representing up to 15% of their home’s value in exchange for a cut of up to 52.5% of the capital appreciation when the property is sold. The San Francisco-based startup, which is known as “Rex,” gets 3.5% of the gains for every 1% it pays the consumer for the option.
“The biggest downside is the 50% of capital gains for a measly 15% of the house,” said Mr. Hanson, who also is co-owner of Liberty Reverse Mortgage Inc. of Rancho Cordova, Calif., which originated about 2,400 reverse mortgages last year. “It doesn’t sound like a great deal to me.”
Rex shares in the downside with the homeowner — something an originator of a reverse mortgage doesn’t do, according to Jeff Cusack, Rex’s managing director of sales and marketing.
I heard about that nonscense yesterday.
Wow! A house just isn’t what it used to be - a place to live. It’s now some new fangled financial instrument.
This looks pretty interesting, in fact.
How big can my mortgage be?
Your mortgage debt may be up to 67% of your home’s value at the time that you enter into a REX Agreement.
So you have to have a good chunk of the “equity” stuff I think they used to call it.
What happens if my home declines in value?
REX & Co. shares in increases and decreases in value. If your home value declines, the value of REX & Co.’s interest declines as well.
So if my house goes down 30%, REX’s equity goes to zero? That’s only fair if they take half your overall capital gain, right? That would be, as one Sacramento blogger would say, a sweet deal!
When I was a freshman in college, I tried my darndest to get “rex’d,” but it was a real bear until Spring. Once I was a sophomore, life got better.
Chip. I think they are talking about anal Rex
Ben, see the Morning Snooze article this afternoon about the “luxury condo/hotel” building going up in (you won’t believe this) - Flower Mound.
Gerald Hines in Houston is the developer. I just shake my head.
I’m beginning to think the qualifications to become a developer are similar to those of a realtor. None.
Bear, to be a developer the only qualification you need is a prepaid airline ticket to a country with no extradition treaty.
“Flower Mound?” Is this a place they expect non-metrosexual guys to buy into? Better to have called it “Mons Floris” and confused ‘ol JSP.
I found this blog earlier this week and have been following since, hoping to see something about my neck of the woods - Chicago.
I saw the news about sales being down, but the way it looks to me is that the market gets worse the farther you get from downtown. Not that it’s hot downtown or anything, but the only thing rotting on the vine downtown is the junk. Hell, in my book, a lot of junk is still selling too fast and for too much.
Anyway, I’m a renter of course and have actually been house hunting for over a year! If it weren’t for the fact that I’m too picky I’m afraid I might have screwed myself. Glad I found this blog, it might help me stay in the rental game a bit longer.
Oh, one more thing - I am a member of the local Realtor Association (so technically I’m a Realtor (r), but I’m not involved in selling real estate and don’t care for the spin being put out - hey did I mention I’ve met the NAR president and don’t care for her one bit as a person?). I would be happy to post up as much raw unbiased sales data as I can get away with (I just gotta check up on the agreements I signed to see where the line is drawn) - so ask for something specific and I’ll see what I can do
Ben usually posts about every area of the country - even VT occasionally gets a link or two. You shouldn’t have to wait much longer to see something Chicago specific.
“Oh, one more thing - I am a member of the local Realtor Association (so technically I’m a Realtor (r),…hey did I mention I’ve met the NAR president and don’t care for her one bit as a person?)…so ask for something specific and I’ll see what I can do ”
That’s nice about the sales data. But, since you a rubbing elbows with the who’s who of the REIC, could you just go ahead and kick Liereah in the n*** instead? Thanks.
I second Bantering Bear’s request.
Tell them that the HBB’ers made you do it.
Take a picture if you can.
Thanks.
Bear, I’m a Real Estate Broker too. I second your “kick Lereah in the n***” proposition. He is such a d**k head.
Hey, why don’t you run for president of NAR? Just promise free Beer at all meetings. Make mine Corona Light.
Brian — you didn’t sign any agreements that prohibit you from disclosing anything you know about the Chicago real estate market or the local MLS. So … disclose away! Once you have given us enough inside information that we might not otherwise have discovered, you’re potentially “in”! Fire away. Just remember that in this case (proving you’re not a shill), you pay first and collect later. Cheers.
Brian; When houses are listed, bought and sold all the info is public knowledge. i don’t know about Illinois but in Florida I can pull up a copy of your mortgage and deed.
If you post info you may be breaking NARs policy, but not the Law. You smart to check it out and make sure. Don’t put yourself at risk.
I’m in Central Florida and Ben post enough info about my market. I reall don’t have any onfo to add. He usually puts it up. He has Chicago and Illinois info frequently.
Frankly, I don’t know how he keeps up, there is so much onfo out there.
flower mound???
Hmmm…I just wonder what’s under that mound pushing up all those daisies.
That would be the bank that’s financing the developer.
Sleepless — it’s the “veneris.”
flower mound???
Must just be my mind, but boy oh boy………..the picture I got from those two words has nothing to do with housing……hehehe
Flower Mound is lucky they backed down on building that 1500 foot tall tower in The Colony. they probably could have spit from the top all the way to Flower Mound. (Que silly name joke about “The Colony, TX”
)
Flower Mound? !?!?
Damn. I’m just spending too much time enjoying my own situation (raising kids, no non-mortgage debt, making games, having fun) and not paying attention to the lunacy around here.
/sheesh/
let’s be even more blatant and call the development next door something like the “Purple Knob”.
What an embarassment to the idiot’s who named this place.
LOL!
Scene from a bar:
Hot Chick “So where do you live, stud?”
Stud”..uhh…Flower Mound”
Hot Chick:”Bartender, another one of those drinks with an umbrella for my friend here. So…what was your name?….Stub..or something? Do you know any real men?”
I surprised residents there are allowing that, much the city. That place is hell on it’s zoning rules.
Is there any way we could get Svein Gjedrem to be the Chairman of the Federal Reserve? The contrast between his statement and the remarks of the ex-Chairman yesterday could not be more glaring.
There’s a reason Norway has one of the highest standards of living in the world. I wish I had gone with my hunch a year ago and transfer all my money into Norweigan kroner.
PT — A year or more ago, some posters here recommended buying Icelandic and/or New Zealand CDs, both of which subsequently would have resulted in substantial losses. All that I could conclude from that is that it might be better to marry a Norwegian than to buy their financial/debt instruments.
but that Icelandic CD is paying 13% now. Not bad.
The reason is oil revenues.
When that runs out they will be the arctic version of Saudi Arabia.
Poor.
is Norway a democracy?
No, Norway is in Michigan I think.
lmao pbb that was funny
No vay.
“while specific taxes on oil-profits for all operators are set to 78%, finally the government controls licensing of exploration and production of fields. The country is richly endowed with natural resources: petroleum, hydropower, fish, forests, and minerals. Norway has obtained one of the highest standards of living in the world, partly from petroleum production. Norway also has a very high employment ratio.”
hmmmmm all that kinda makes for a easy job if you’re an economist.
Well, there are many other places rich with natural resources but unable to achieve what Norway has achieved in overall standard of living mainly because of poor, predatory management of them.
brazil *cough*
““The decline means an investor this week would have paid more than $950,000 a year to protect $10 million of bonds against default.”
That’s insane. I’d rather have a $10 million CD with Coast Bank.
Ok, maybe not …
I was surprised that no one else picked up on that. But I’m not in that field, so kept my yap shut.
Check out how much David Lereah’s primary residence has declined in value.
This is priceless….
http://davidlereahwatch.blogspot.com/2007/02/zillow-david-lereahs-house-declining-in.html
Unfortunately, the decline matters little to him. His speaking engagement fees and potential job salaries far, far outweigh what he will lose on that house and on his other properties. Personally, I believe that point is totally lost on those who rage about his RE investments, as if they are a serious source of future income (profit). No, he understands full well the nature of the public and its ability to buy his books and speeches long after his discredited NAR forecasts are history. Sort of “Son of Greenspan.”
Chip, I don’t know about Lereah’s future. I’m thinking that when NAR is no longer able to spin this trainwreck, Old Dave will become a liability and he will “Resign for personal reasons..to spend more time with his family….to seek other opportunities”..whatever.
Basically he will be fired because he is NAR personified and He will become an embarrassment. His two books are already a joke.
I think he will become a pariah. No one will touch him.
He could work for Big Tobacco. They’re always in need of a good liar.
“There is no proof cigarette are harmful to your health. It’s those “Chicken Little’s” over at Nicorette that started that rumor.
true…. those places are usually called “colonies”
Greetings, new here. Here’s a little question for y’all:
What’s up with the Seattle PI and the local real estate cabal?
Eight days ago the Seattle PI posted a piece by Aubrey Cohen on it’s Website titled “Median Home Price Plummets by $40,000?:
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/302836_housing08.html
The piece begins:
“Seattle’s median home price in January was the lowest it has been in a year, according to statistics released Wednesday.
The median price of $379,990 was down from $420,000 in December, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service…”
When I read this I thought to myself, “Wow, this is going to make a big splash!” After all, the PI has been bleating endlessly about how housing prices aren’t actually falling, just “flattening”, and about how the Seattle market just isn’t subject to the same trends as the rest of the country - however bizarre that proposition might seem.
Imagine my surprise when the article didn’t appear in the print edition of the paper! Not a peep. So much for the splash.
Now fast forward to today and a new article by Cohen up on the PI site: “Area’s Housing Prices Still Strong, Homes Here Buck National Trend”:
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/303935_housing16.html
Strange, this headline seems to directly contradict the buried Cohen article of eight days ago. A read of the piece explains the difference. You see, today’s article refers to a rise in prices vs the same time LAST YEAR. Never mind that prices have actually been dropping in recent months, as Cohen’s previous article made abundantly clear.
As long as prices are still higher than last year, the PI seems comfortable headlining with “…Prices Still Strong” - even in the face of their own earlier reporting that prices are in fact dropping.
So what’s up at the PI? Are these guys really this confused? Anyone ever look at their list of top advertisers? Or in their weekly circulars? Just sayin’…
Any bets on whether today’s piece makes the print edition?
justice is mellow
In the ABX market, “almost the entire price movement can be blamed on nothing other than pure sentiment-driven selling,” Bear Stearns analysts led by Gyan Sinha in New York wrote in a Feb. 12 report. Sinha says some of the contracts are too cheap.
—-
This deserves a big sigh. Stop trying to sell you idiots! The prices are too low! Wait for the Spring Bounce!
I’m glad the current price movements aren’t supported by any underlying change in the fundamentals. This of course implies that the bundled loans were fundamentally bad _before_ so many of the mortgages started to default. It’s not like some buyers look ahead and wonder what the effect of the subprime mortgage defaults will be on the remaining loans… I mean, how realistic really are those projections last year of 20% defaults of subprime loans? If that ever happened whoever had the “Hot Potato” mortgages would actually lose money, and we know that can’t happen.
Pure sentiment-driven selling? Naaaawwww, that never occurs with any other freely traded asset.
The Mortgage Lending Institution is now investigating Silver State Mortgage: http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070216/NEWS18/702160502&oaso=news.rgj.com/breakingnews
I think we’re going to start seeing a lot of mortgage brokers indicted. When enough of these fraudulent transactions blow up on the big banks, they’ll be looking for blood. There is simply no way some of these bad deals went through without the brokers knowing exactly what was happening.
“I think we’re going to start seeing a lot of mortgage brokers indicted.”
Too little. Too late. But better than never. It’s “Clint Eastwood” time.
It’s “Clint Eastwood” time.
As the wind swept dust and a lone tumbleweed across the tracks lonely road, Clint tosses he smoke to the ground and exhales as he scopes the lane. He knows who he’s after and his target won’t escape.
Background voice:
Its “the kid,” a little twirp of a punk if you’ve ever seen one. Five flips on one block. (Hear the crunching sound of Clint’s boots as he walks forward.) Yea… that’s him. Bright yellow hummer in the driveway, un-mowed lawn, and that damn websites garden gnome right by the front door.
Clints boots echo with a hollow thud as he climbs the porch stairs. He stops, lights a cigar and seems to contemplate. He’s looking around and walks back to the Hummer grabbing the garden gnome.
With a quick flick of the wrist he punctures the gas tank and fills the plastic gnome with 89 Octane.
The boots crunch on the dead grass as Clint walks up to the kitchen door. He places his cigar on the handrail and without further ado kicks the door in.
There on the couch is the kid. Clint knocks him out in one blow with the fuel laden garden gnome. He sprinkles gasoline around the room, turns on every burner of the gas stove (unlit) while humming the theme song from “flip this house.”
He steps outside, puffy happily on the cigar, stuffs it in the grove of a rock and then throws it into the home. Immediately there is a fuel/air explosion that completely decimates the home. But Clint is unhurt (his slow stride put him on the opposite side of the hummer in time). He strolls away down the dusty lane. The yellow Hummer explodes and is launched far into the air.
Clint smirks. A job well done. Now he’s ready for the big confrontation. He’s ready to take on the NAR.
He turns to the camera and says.
“Do you feel lucky punk?
….
Got popcorn?”
Good one, Neal.
The Good, the Bad and the Realtors
Bear, there is so much fraud, dishonsety, deceit and other such illegal crap going on in all segments of the market, you going to have to have one judge and one cop for every ten citizens. There is just to much. It’s going to tax the system.
Pretty soon everyone who gets stopped by a cop for speeding will be saying “Why don’t you go catch some real criminals, like those mortgage brokers/realtors/appraisors/bankers.”
News from Indiana and India! Dude you are comprehensive. I’m impressed!
The evening local news on ABC 7 in Los Angeles they did a story on how it always makes sense to buy vs rent. They even showed numbers “proving” how the numbers always work out in favor of the buyer over the renter. It was totally biased from the perspective of the real estate industry.
http://abclocal.go.com/kabc/story?section=consumer&id=5039033
>>>Orange County mortgage broker Gavin Fenske of Great Financial says “buy.”
Shocker.
>>>If you compare buying and renting you’ll see that after the first year buying makes financial sense. In the first year the cost to rent at an average of $2,500 a month is $30,000. Now if you buy a $500,000 house, the first-year cost is $51,818, including closing costs and interest. That’s over $21,000 more than renting, even with the tax savings and appreciation. But if you’re in your home for three years or more, buying makes more sense. In year three there is a $17,000 buying advantage. In year five, it’s more than $63,000.
So, I guess that appreciation is in the bag. It is just a matter of running the numbers and you see the great benfits of buying now in Los Angeles. I am glad that the Jesuits never taught me this special math.
benefits
A builder in the Virginia article is now calling October as the new ‘bottom’ date.
Whatever.
And most of the glut they are talking about in that article is in Mannassas. Good luck clearing that glut. MS-13 central.