Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For February 17, 2007
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
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One of the major Australian daily newspapers had an article by their ‘real estate reporter’ this week, about the 2006 Q4/Full Year numbers for the various capital cities. (Which collectively comprise about 65% of the country’s population.)
Perth, Western Australia was the real outlier at 34.9% median rise for the year (but only 1.7% for Q4), mainly due to the effects of the mining boom. Overall the annual rise was 8.3%, and the quarterly rise 1.9%, from prices which were already among the highest in the world as a proportion of incomes.
Darwin had the biggest Q4 rise, at 4.9%, but Sydney, which is Australia’s largest city, had falls for both Q4 and the full year.
But what really grabbed my attention was a comment about “apart from Darwin, only xxx and yyy had decent quarterly rises of 3%”.
Say what??? 3% per quarter annualises to about 12.5%, which is way better than ‘decent’. Garbage like this from supposed ‘experts’ in the MSM keep totally unrealistic expectations in front of the sheeple. Is it any wonder too many of them bite?
It is just straight out IMPOSSIBLE for RE prices to keep rising in double digits, while wages are rising at 5% or less. At some point something has to give, and the longer we wait the worse the carnage.
* /rant *
It’s different in Australia because everyone wants to live there.
Can anybody clue me in to what’s going on in New Zealand, as far as real estate trends?
The South Island lakes, in particular.
This is for all of you who think buying a house has stooped to the level of buying a car and that RE’s mimic used car dealers please read the following (it’s true, not made up):
San Jose, CA. – San Jose will be the next location where HGTV, the largest Home and Garden Network in the Country, will be filming their newest show “Sleep On It”.
Robert Aldana of “Let’s Talk Real Estate!” and LTRE Homes was contacted in early February by the HGTV network to audition for the show and pick a current client that is looking for a home in the Bay Area. His first thought was to choose the family of Cisco and Misty Morales, San Jose natives, who auditioned alongside Aldana and were able to win the part.
The upcoming HGTV show will showcase the Morales’ looking at properties in their price range and desired area. They will then be able to choose one home to “Sleep On It” and spend the day and night in the home, something buyers miss out on when looking for the perfect home.
“You get to test drive a car before buying it so why not test drive a house”, states Aldana of the show. “Buyers really need to pay close attention to other factors affecting a home that may not be so obvious at the times they look at homes such as noise from a freeway or train, or smells from landfills or previous uses of the land. Another huge factor is neighbor and neighborhood issues that you can’t see when previewing the home during day times”.
Cisco, a Respiratory Therapist, and his wife, Misty, a stay-at-home Mom and part-time student at DeVry are excited about being on national television. They have lived in their Berryessa townhouse for the past 2 ½ years and are now ready to move into a single-family home in the same area but are dealing with a higher price range.
“It’s tough to buy a home with a single income. I have a degree and 7 years active duty in the Air Force and still have to work 2 jobs to afford a home”, states Cisco Morales, “Back when my parents were my age in San Jose a family could easily own a home, but that isn’t the case today”. “We stay here because all of our family is here so we just pay the price, but it is not easy”, says Misty who is currently working on her BA degree and takes care of their two small children, Francisco, 4 ½ and Gabriel, 1 ½.
Aldana is no stranger to television as he has hosted the popular television show “Let’s Talk Real Estate!” for almost 12 years and hosts a radio show of the same name that is broadcast throughout Northern California on two separate stations. Aldana has also been a licensed real estate professional since 1986 and was appointed as a State Director for the California Association of REALTORS® from 2004- 2006. He is currently active in selling real estate and is the President of LTRE Homes, LetsTalkRealEstate.com and Hablando Casas real estate companies.
The show will be filmed in mid-February and is expected to air in March-April.
Revolting, on so many levels.
Where do I audition…?
I suggest we make a production, broadcast on YouTube, called “Sleep on It–FREE Edition.” The premise is that bubble bloggers hop around from vacant home to vacant home and get free rent / utilities. With a cell phone and the high chance of an unencrypted wireless network, we’d be golden.
Anyone interested in a Chicago area THBB get together? I am thinking somewhere in/near the Loop on a Friday evening. Suggestions?
I’m cool with that. Downtown or Gold Coast. One of the bars on DIvision would be ideal. Lincoln Park is OK too.
Division would be cool. I have not been on that street since the early 90’s. Is Mother’s still there?
Andy Rooney On
My realtor called me yesterday and told me it is a buyers market so it’s a great to buy. Hmmm..
If no one wants to buy, why are realtors calling it a buyers market? It should be called a lack of buyers market OR a no one wants to buy market. The question then becomes, what is making buyers not want to buy in this market?
Likewise, when everyone wanted to buy and realtors were calling it a sellers market, why wasn’t everyone selling? Why is everyone trying to sell now? Makes no sense to me.
Rooney OFF
Pent up demand? Sellers were not selling because it was more profitable to buy and hold on to their property/properties. There was an incentive not to sell but buy. That incentive is now gone from the market. Pent up supply is on its way.
“when everyone wanted to buy and realtors were calling it a sellers market”
I guess it’s the same logic used that we drive on a parkway and park in a driveway.
And the same logic used when we send something by car and call it a “shipment,” but send something by ship and call it “cargo.”
“If no one wants to buy, why are realtors calling it a buyers market?”
They are thinking there are still sheeple around who have not yet bought, but whose herd instinct will kick in if the realtor insinuates that
now is a good time to buy because it is a “buyers market.” In other words, the moniker “buyers market” is not so much an apt description of market conditions as a marketing gimmick to make GFs want to try and catch falling knives.
The only thing stopping buyers now is fed tightening. If the fed loosens the nutjobs will take on any risk they can get other people’s money to finance. They are oblivious to any concept of risk.
“The only thing stopping buyers now is fed tightening.”
I guess you haven’t been following developments in the subprime lending market very closely…
There is something depressing beyond belief about a MSM and RE community that refuses to recant in the face of overwhelming opposing evidence that housing and lending (MBS) and monitary liquidity has reached mania levels world wide. Let’s take preventive measures to curb bird flu which may never be a problem and ignore that that is staring us right in the face. Oh well, enough of that, I’m headed for the orchid show in SF to look to bury my head in a sea of color.
Sheesh, that’s the kind of thing I miss about California. There would never be an orchid show in DFW. Instead, there’s a gun show or hunting show every weekend.
I know exactly what you mean. I take a yoga class here in the Ozarks and after class one day the other women were talking about their favorite…guns. I suppose they use them to shoot Bambi.
A number of years ago, friends from the Midlands area of the UK, met a couple from Ky, in the UK and they became friends and my friends went to see them in Ky and were there for a week and at one point, my friend Jane from the UK was with the Ky woman, going shopping, when Jane noticed a handgun in her purse and asked what that was for?
And she said (insert Kentucky Drawl here) “I don’t rightly know, I hardly ever have had to shoot anybody”
I love touring a house with walls covered with the heads of dead animals…..NOT!
I just noticed it is an Ex clownifornian. Figures.. no wonder nobody likes us cali’s. If you don’t like guns and hunting, why in the hell would you move to the Ozarks. I suppose next your going to complain about the trees and lakes and petition for a new law to remove them as well. Go back to california, your are insulting to those that moved out here and adapted to the communities we moved into.
There’s more to the Ozarks than guns and hunting. You must be joking to suggest that in order to live here it is a requirement to buy a gun and shoot animals.
You tell em, I’m from MI working in CA…. so I have been learning to speak Mexican.
Learning mexican, part of being in cal and better for business and getting ahead there. The mexican slang part is tuff at first since their are so many differnt meanings.
Guns and hunting are part of life in the Ozarks, get use to it and thank the hunters for thinning the herd or else you would be deer hunting in your car everynight. Yes, I know you think you are that special driver that thinks you can see them coming out of nowhere driving at night, but you are wrong.
Guns and hunting are part of YOUR life. Not part of everyone’s life, even Ozarkians.
I despise anyone who is against guns or hunting. It’s good these people are unarmed and don’t know how to shoot.
As a SFBA native, I cannot stand the snootiness that has evolved here. Funny thing is, it mostly came from non-natives who had this image in their minds of how things are here. I like seeing it exported; but my apologies to those in all the “backwards” regions being inundated.
Ex clownifornian,, you seem to misunderstand what I am saying, I do not hunt, I do not own and have never shot a gun. I am saying that you are a jerk for moving to the Ozarks and in typical fashion for a pompas a$$ use the favorite anti gun anti, anti hunter saying “they are killing Bambi”.
I think it is pretty clear who the jerk is here. By the way, could you bother to comment on the topic of REAL ESTATE IN THE OZARKS and the article mentioned in this post rather than focus on personal attacks on someone who you don’t know anything about?
By the way I came here to create jobs for the locals. And no, we aren’t manufacturing guns or doing taxidermy.
Ok, Ozarkian - spend a few more years in that awful place and you’ll leave it and come home just like we did!! It’s “fun” at first, but after awhile the inbred people and backwards attitudes towards “outsiders” will drive you insane. My family and I was so glad to leave. We would have crawled/walked back to California if we had to. I sure wouldn’t waste my breath defending them.
It’s just a matter of time ’til you’re outta there!
“could you bother to comment on the topic of REAL ESTATE IN THE OZARKS”
Basically, Branson real Estate is dropping, houses sit on market longer and as such pricess are dropping, but they are sticky because people paid too much and owe more than the house or lots are worth to a potential buyer. Locals have been priced out since 2003/2004. You see a lot of workers driving up to Springfield. Some homes built on Spec by local builders have sat from 6 months to a year. Prices will continue to drop as the pompass a$$’s that came in thinking they could change everthing to their way of thinking give in and go back where they came from. I am not saying it is good or bad, I am saying adapt, accept, or move on. One more reason to rent before you buy when you are an equity locust.
And once again, who cares that you don’t manuf guns, you are an intolerant a$$.
Creating jobs, you moved to have a cheaper way of life, and bought or built a business for extra income. Don’t pretend to say you went there just to create jobs. They were doing just fine before you came along and will do fine once you leave.
And no, I don’t live there, I just hate know it all cali’s, I have to hear too much of that crap as I travel.
People are not doing fine here. 40% of the people in the county I live in go to bed hungry every night. Many of them are undereducated. Many work 2-3 minimum wage jobs. Some are drug addicts. Other Californians have moved their businesses here and have some success — if you can find good workers you can make it. But outsourcing is killing a lot of businesses even here. The local garment manufacturing factory used to hire 100 full time people. There are now about 20 part time with minimum wage incomes and no benefits. You are wrong to think people are doing fine here. They are really struggling.
I find it amazing that you (or anyone) could equate the love of guns and hunting to be a requirement to live in the Ozarks. And that bringing jobs to underemployed and unemployed people could be a bad thing. The town I live in is DESPERATE for businesses to come in and employ people. You must live in some kind of Ozarkian Heavenly Hunting Grounds if you have failed to notice the high rate of poverty and unemployment throughout the area.
I’m thru with you rant and rave all you want you do not reflect well on whoever you are or wherever you come from.
Actually it is because you don’t get it that I will keep going until you blow a gasket or get it, or I go back to logging receits for last years taxes,
I never said guns or hunting are a requirement for the Osarks, you said that. I said they are part of culture there sure, never said the only part as you seem to think.
I should have came right out and said you are an idiot that thinks everyone should do and act like you. And I am going to keep saying it until I get IP blocked on this site because I think it is funny that you get so upset. Hopefully before the block you will understand it is not nice to look down on people that are not up to “your” standards.
calex:
Get over yourself.
I have family in the area - they have no guns and don’t go hunting.
“I have family in the area - they have no guns and don’t go hunting.”
So do I, but that is not the point.
Living on the west coast I avoided parties where I knew people would discuss real estate. A nice gun discussion would have been very refreshing. To each their own.
“There would never be an orchid show in DFW.”
Well, that’s Dallas, which is a suburb of Oklahoma.
For having lived in the DFW Metroplex, you guys are awful ignorant of what goes on outside of your neighborhood.
There does exist in Fort Worth the Fort Worth Botanic Gardens which is the oldest botanical garden in Texas. They even have a wikipedia page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Worth_Botanic_Garden
And you would never guess what type of events The Fort Worth Orchid Society hosts there? Yep, believe it or not last fall I went to an orchid show they hosted there(their next show will be May 2-6, 2007 at the Arlington Convention Center).
My husband corrected me on that point. We’ve been there dozens of times, I love that place.
There would never be an orchid show in DFW.
The I guess the ones my wife has gone to on a regular basis were really gun shows then?
/MIL has a spectacular greenhouse full of ferns and orchids
/MIL also has permit to carry conceled.
/MIL has a spectacular greenhouse full of ferns and orchids
/MIL also has permit to carry conceled.
Great point! People are so narrowminded it is incredible. They automatically assume that, if you like plants, then you hate guns, and vice versa. I remember a time, while working at a world class nursery/botanical garden, one of the sickeningly pretentious women in the office received an e-mail from a customer stating she wanted her plant order shipped at a later date due to a pro football game she was attending. This woman read the e-mail out loud, wrinkled her ugly nose and face, and said “Ewwww football, what kind of gardener watches football?” I looked at her and laughed and said “She and I, for example.” She looked awfully foolish. As for me, I like guns, have hunted, grow plants, attend flower shows, cook, work on houses, sew my torn clothes, hike, bike, play poker with the guys, and watch HGTV from time to time. Expand your mind people.
Or how to clean a rabbit show.
There would never be an orchid show in DFW. Instead, there’s a gun show or hunting show every weekend.
Hey, you say that like it’s a BAD thing….
Looks like there’s a downturn everywhere in the country but BRANSON, MISSOURI! Who would have thunk it? There are so many “classic” phrases in this article it’s hard to know where to begin with the satire. The “reporter” should be pilloried.
Lakefront development hits Branson
Whisper Cove development will offer “luxury living” at choice waterfront location.
Kathryn Buckstaff
News-Leader
Branson —For a town bordering two lakes, there’s not an abundance of lakefront homes, especially on the west side of town along the shore of Table Rock Lake.
On Thursday, Chris and Gail Myer, brothers and longtime Branson hoteliers, announced a development —Whisper Cove —on 57 acres with 2,500 feet of Table Rock lakefront. The property is off Missouri 265 about two miles north of the Chateau on the Lake hotel. The development will include 12 1-acre home sites in a gated area, 100 villa townhomes and 220 condominium units. Construction is already under way on one home, Gail Myer said.
The residential lots sell for $115,000 to $200,000. The villas will be priced at $249,000 to $400,000, Myer said.
The “luxury living,” Myer said, will offer lake access, proximity to area attractions and inclusion in the Branson school district. Whisper Cove will have a clubhouse, walking trails and a picnic area as well as another special feature.
“A community chapel is planned as a constant reminder that Christ is the real builder of the community,” Myer said.
The development will have underground utilities with a central wastewater package plant to protect water quality. They are working with the U.S. Corps of Engineers on permitting boat docks, but at the least will offer dry storage for boats, Myer said.
The Myer family has served Branson visitors for 24 years in the lodging industry and owns five hotels there: Best Western Center Pointe Inn, Best Western Music Capital Inn, Comfort Inn & Suites, Comfort Inn at Thousand Hills and Comfort Inn West.
Unlike Lake of the Ozarks, where there is much lakefront development, most of Table Rock’s 850 miles of shoreline is unpopulated because it is a federally controlled lake built for flood control and public recreation. Development must be approved by the corps.
Also, the cost of building access roads and other infrastructure on the rocky shoreline has been prohibitive based on land values, said area Realtor Mark Weisz. But with the city of Branson adding attractions that are drawing more visitors, rising land values could make lakefront development more attractive, Weisz said.
And there’s no shortage of buyers for properties priced at Whisper Cove.
“We’re not scratching the surface when we’re dealing with properties that have so many amenities as this does,” Weisz said. “We’re not even close to saturation. It just takes the right location and the right marketing.”
Many of the buyers of Branson real estate come from the East and West coasts as well as St. Louis, Kansas City and Chicago, developers say. And many of those buyers are used to prices well above Branson’s luxury market.
“People come in from California and look at our prices and go, ‘Are you nuts?’” said Bill Skains, owner of the Engler Block craft mall.
Stephen Marshall, manager of the Chateau on the Lake, said his customers are impressed with the lake recreation and scenery.
“If you live in St. Louis, Kansas City, California, these are bargain prices,” Marshall said.
And people today are investing in real estate instead of putting their extra money in a bank, Marshall said.
“The boomers today, they make it and they spend it,” Marshall said.
““A community chapel is planned as a constant reminder that Christ is the real builder of the community,” Myer said.”
Oh, jeez, here we go. “Buy real estate — go to heaven.” Can’t wait to see in print the opposite implication. “Don’t buy real estate — burn in hell.”
These developers aren’t stupid. This is what sells in the Bible belt. It also keeps the riff-raff (non-Fundamentalist Christians, atheists, Jews, Hindus, Muslims, etc.) away.
riff-raff = non-”Fundamentalist Christians”
Once you endear yourself to any extraordinary popular delusion, it’s easy to seperate them from their moolah, as they feel you give a rat’s patootie about them, or so they think.
Posting your prejudices against gun owners, christians, southerners, hunters, etc. etc. isn’t making you look superior. I feel sorry for your new neighbors.
You missed the point of the article. First of all, “it’s different here”. Second, building a fundamentalist church as part of housing subdivision is a marketing ploy. They are sending the message of who is welcome to buy, and who is not. What if they were including a mosque? What if they were including a topless bar? It’s a marketing message nothing more and nothing less.
“fundamentalist church” is a marketing ploy
Yea it is, he’s right if you don’t fit the profile that’s being projected would you buy into that project. Donald Sterling was raked over the coals for the same type of thing here in Los Angeles
“It also keeps the riff-raff (non-Fundamentalist Christians, atheists, Jews, Hindus, Muslims, etc.) away.”
Woah, southerner. I am an atheist. Non-fundamentalist Christians are riff-raff? I actually think the opposite is true. Fundamentalist Christians/fundamentalist Muslims are the most dangerous people in the world. The moment the wake up all the way to when they go to bed, they want the world destroyed so that their own version of a magical elf will return. Sorry. God is dead. You want to stir up Apocalypse? It will only result in a dead quiet world that battled only for the reasons of people who had yet to evolve beyond stupidstition (my own word I coined).
Hey, I’m an atheist too! We aren’t welcome at Wisper Cove in Branson. Too bad because I was just about to buy one of their luxurious condos. I guess I’ll have to keep renting my $550/month duplex instead.
woops! My mistake. I guess I had a lapse in my reading comprehension and did not detect your facetiousness. I’m glad you are like me. In 2010 perhaps 20% of the US population will be Godless. When that gets to 40%, the X-ian fundies will no longer have enough power to wage war in the name of one religion jealous of another religion. Nor will they be able to treat a fellow religion with kid gloves like our current leader does. No subjective philosophy deserves anyone’s respect, in my opinion.
“Jeezus is my carpenter.”
And now we have another reason that I will never be moving to anywhere in the midwest.
Sorry to make a religious rant, but I would rather sit in rush hour Miami traffic with a car full of coked up hookers on one side of me, and a drunk illegal with no insurance and a real appetite for destruction for hours every day then have to deal with this kind of religious crap for even 30 seconds.
Let’s just say, people of my faith are not really welcome anywhere (well, anywhere at all) but on the coasts. It is really frighting to me that these people think that a higher power is the builder of the community. I am sure the construction workers breaking their backs to build you a nice place to live would like to hear that they are no longer needed, as a higher being is just going to pop this community into being.
Magical thinking. Got to love it. Give me cynical, shallow, dishonest people who are disgusted with the world anyday. At least I understand them.
Don’t crap on the entire midwest just because of one glitzy tourist trap.
I think the posters are crapping on the midwest because it is in the Bible belt, not just because of one glitzy tourist trap. Missouri is just across the border from Kansas, where the education authorities have banned the Theory of Evolution.
Sorry GS, but evolution was affirmed by the courts, and the school boards that pushed intelligent design were largely voted out of office. Darwin is still safe in Kansas.
The school board vote in favor of removing the questioning of evolution was 6-4. Hardly safe.
None of you are evidently from Kansas, so let me explain it for you…..
Everybody in Kansas has better things to do than monitor what candidates for the state BOE are up to (sorta like researching the policies of the local dog catcher, if he were up for election). Until the idiots get into office and start mandating “Intelligent Design”. Nobody here got excited about it (well, almost no one)……everyone here knew the problem would be “corrected” at the next election. It would be nice if people had more faith in their fellow citizens ability to correct problems like this come election time.
I just love how everyone on this blog runs down the MSM on their reporting on housing markets, but assumes that everything else they report is the truth (especially when it conforms to your prejudices and pre-conceived notions). MSM is a lagging indicator, at best.
Oh, boy. Knocking another faith while trumping up the superiority of one’s own. How is bigotry toward the faith of another on a higher level than their alleged bigotry toward yourn?
We’ll be looking for a whipping boy’ for the debacle and it seems pretty easy to pick one, to me.
It’s the evang crowd, that got ’ssshrubery elected.
The backlash will be harsh.
Read what the man wrote…he didn’t knock anyone’s faith, just noted the deliberately exclusionary marketing of some housing tract in Branson. Exploiting religion for some scuzzy housing doesn’t strike you as crass and offensive?
Branson is a joke, and there’s a reason for that.
Yoga in the Ozarks - the comedians would have a feld day with that one.
I know what you mean dude, I’m Catholic too.
I can’t stop laughing. Dog is my co-pilot.
Our people have wandered for 2000 years looking for real estate.
OT but I pulled into that development last Dec. when I was down in Branson doing the xmas light tours (they have miles of roads all decorated with xmas themes and lit up, my daughter loved it). Anyway, they were just clearing the land and laying out the roads at that point. I’ll tell you though that I think they are on the cusp of a major bust down there. They are seriously overbuilding with the new river development/hotel/condo mixed use deal as well as these major subdivisions going up. We looked around at the RE ads and saw tons of houses/land for sale. They have a couple of golf course communities still offering land and spec homes for outrageous prices for the area. I just don’t think these will all fly given that the area is mainly for tourists. How many folks are going to be able to afford a 500K-1mil house in that area?
God is my co-pilot, but we crashed in the mountains and I had to eat her.
“God is my co-pilot, but we crashed in the mountains and I had to eat her. ”
Sweet! That one almost brought a tear to my eye. In 1990 atheists numbered 8% of the US population. In 2000 the number went up to 15%. US Census. Sweet.
Branson??? hahahahahahahahah!!!
I was just up there a couple months ago and I can tell you from first hand knowledge, that is the king BUBBLE in the middle. People there do have trouble selling no matter what the MSM spews. All the incoming transplants would rather build new than buy a less expensive resell or spec.
For those that know the Dells in Wisconsin but not Branson, Branson is the samething as the Dells, except cut it into 1/3.
“A community chapel is planned as a constant reminder that Christ is the real builder of the community,” Myer said
In other words– JEWS KEEP OUT. That’s the message I get, loud and clear.
No way in hell I’d buy there. It’s bad enough dealing with the anti-semitic ****s here in California, why on earth would I want to go somewhere where there’s even more of them?
This is a fancy condo to be built in Greenville, SC, which is a nice town. Back in 2002-2003 we typically had about 5-10 listings in the entire area for houses over 600K. Now we have 160 listed on just one local realtor website. Now, if a REALTORTM is going to advertise an expensive home, and want to appeal to the affluent types, they should be able to spell the word “luxury”…
http://www.realtor.com/FindHome/HomeListing.asp?snum=1&frm=bymlsid&pgnum=1&mls=xmls&js=off&fid=so&vtsort=&ss_aywr=&locallnk=&poe=realtor&ct=&zp=&primaryZp=&nearbyZp=&mnprice=0&mxprice=99999999&mnbed=0&mnbath=0&typ=1&typ=2&typ=4&mnsqft=0&exft=0&exft=0&exft=0&exft=0&lid=1098197&sid=08123CE9310DC&snumxlid=1053140040&lnksrc=00002
Spelling is overrated.
Doesn’t Greenville have that little BMW plant off the highway? What else is there? I have only driven by. I can’t imagine the local economy has this kind of strength.
Michelin has its US operations there, as does Fluor Daniel. Decent smattering of engineering/ manufacturing/ technical stuff. As fas as culture goes there ain’t jack, but there’s plenty of golf and the NC mountains are right at your foot.
Two new estate matters came my way this week, each with housing woes.
In the first, the executor listed the decedent’s home back in August ‘06, initially at $269,000. Now listed at $224,000, and zero offers have been received.
In the second, executor listed originally 1 1/2 years ago at $569,000, now at $445,000. One offer was received, @ $300,000. Executor (surviving spouse) mortgaged the home to buy another, current outstanding balance is $360,000. Executor won’t drop any further, ’cause that will put him into a no better than “breakeven” position.
If the peak was around $569,000, then the home is probably worth only $200,000 to $225,000 at the bottom. So, atta boy Mr. Executor, just chase the market all the way back down…
How many people have read this load of crap? It this guy psychotic? His premise must be that no matter what happens ridiculous amounts of liquidity will continue to encompass the globe like another ocean.
http://tinyurl.com/2ed6×5
There are so many people in this whole disaster that would better serve the world if they would just shut up. This booyah spewing dope might be tops on the list.
NYC, I think you might have tinyurl’d the wrong link, but if you purchase a sweet ride like that the ladies will be all over you
How did that happen? The wife and I were drinking on Bleecker St. last night but I’m sobered up now. Let’s give it another shot and see what happens.
http://tinyurl.com/2ed6×5
Maybe I missed it, but this is an Edmonds review of an old Nissan minivan.
I give up. It was supposed to be the article about Cramer spewing how wonderful a sub-prime collapse would be for the stock market. It’s time to start drinking again. It is a 3-day weekend. God bless you Misters Lincoln and Washington.
“… Cramer spewing how wonderful a sub-prime collapse would be for the stock market.”
Is he saying that thanks to the sub-prime collapse, it is now a buyer’s market for stocks?
“if you purchase a sweet ride like that the ladies will be all over you”
Yeah, but you will have to pick them up from thier soccer game first.
Is this the link you were trying to post?
‘we’ll have a crisis that can justify not one but maybe three or four cuts.’
So there you go. Lack of confidence in financial practices will cause the Fed do just lower rates to smooth over the mistakes made. One can only dream that they had a business model with this kind of nimbleness.
The Wall Street Journal article on subprimes had a chart that really shows what happened.
Prior to this bubble I knew a lot about housing markets but not about credit markets. So around 2000 I thought NY area prices were getting too high relative to income. I thought 9/11 would stop it, but it didn’t. By 2003 I was telling everyone not to buy — price income ratios had reached the breaking point. I thought it was 1987, to use a reference point from the prior bubble. But prices kept soaring another 2-3 years.
Well, the chart shows the share of mortgages that were subprime. It is flat at around 3-4% through 2003, then suddenly jumps to 12%. So THAT is how it happened.
Did it stay at 12% in 2004, 2005 and 2006 or was it climbing?
The NYTimes on pricing strategies for housing.
In a market where buyers and sellers circle one another warily — each certain that he or she is being taken advantage of, no matter what the conclusion of a deal — the asking price of a property is rarely a straightforward reflection of comparable values. While comparables may be a starting point, the price at which a seller offers a property is often also based on wishful thinking, propaganda and ploy.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/18/realestate/18cov.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1
“… the asking price of a property is rarely a straightforward reflection of comparable values.”
Especially when no more subprime loans mean no GFs willing to pay last year’s wishing prices are able to qualify for a loan.
“Especially when no more subprime loans mean no GFs willing to pay last year’s wishing prices are able to qualify for a loan.”
Sure is funny what happens, when the easy money dries up. What’s really funny is how much the money isn’t easy, once the rate jumps up.
I think a key thing with the GFs is that they are gullible. What I mean here is that they are gullible in believing that prices always go up, they are gullible in thinking that next year they will be making a substantially higher income, they are gullible in believing that they can always refinance their way out of debt, they are gullible in believing in all that not aming any more land, ‘Boomers will buy the second homes, etc., etc., etc.
It also, IMO, has to with the fact that so many people are financially illiterate.
“What I mean here is that they are gullible in believing that…”
This book tells the story very well…
http://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Chance-Markets/dp/1587990717
Their gullibility comes from their ignorance, which comes from laziness, which comes from being a fool. The amount of evidence that prices are falling is enormous if one just opens their eyes and looks. I can’t imagine buying anything of a material amount without doing the homework first.
A fool and his money, y’know?
Last night I again visited Yahoo Answers and gave some advice to those unsuspecting illiterates who still want to ‘onw the American Dream”. What I have noticed is that there are quite a few that had questions like “can I get my earnest money back, loan was denied” or “can you help me get financed”. So I think (not in the business anymore, so dont know for sure) that after Fremont S&L cut out the 100% programs, that the other lenders basically stopped doing them as well, or at least they tightened up the underwriting a notch. So if you were on the bubble of fraudulently qualifying, you are basically being denied. I dont think the majority of lenders have come out and stated that they aren’t accepting the worst credit risks, because they still want the loan submissions, but the winds of change are definitely blowing.
So GS, I agree, the crash will be well known on a national level, by the end of the year. I predict that if anyone wants to make any big ticket item purchases, wait until after Christmas, because sales of everything will be non-existent by then (i.e. cars, boats, Sea-do’s, Harley’s, flat screens, home movie theaters, etc.).
The returns to patience may potentially be very high this year (unless respiking operations somehow lead to victory in the War on Savers).
Which lenders have come out and said that they won’t accept fradulent loans anymore?
Excellent article….thanks
How many times have I read someone say the seller “has to have”…..BS….that’s THEIR problem; not mine. It’s worth what I am willing to pay and not a penny more.
It would appear a New Yorker’s (or NYT reporter’s) idea of a reasonable price for a one bedroom house is a bit different from what one would expect in Nova Scotia.
And, just for fun, now that the lumpen have been persuaded to ruin themselves financially to get that mcmansion, the Times proclaims Tiny is chic. Some cool designs.
Think Small
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/16/realestate/greathomes/16tiny.html?em&ex=1171861200&en=8fdcb6f34a5f5e8c&ei=5087%0A
This has to happen. When a movement, especially a design or architectural movement, becomes too widespread it will naturally trigger a counter-movement. Of course I am talking about the McMansion movement of the past 5 years. When houses are tiny people think, “I want a big house.” When houses are mammoth people will think, “I want a quaint little house.”
I think the McMansion movement is running its course. Personally, I told the wife the other day, if we buy again I would like a nice small place. I want an older looking kitchen with black and white floor tiles, a 1950s style dining table and very basic counter-tops. If I see granite or Travertine I will say, “no thank you” or “you need to reduce the price because of this hideous decorating.” I don’t want a 98 cubic foot refrigerator. You know you are only going to fill it with junk.
Living in NYC was a great eye opener for me. Moving into a tiny tiny apartment showed how little material possessions mean. I never want to collect stuff again. Give me a few high-quality items to enjoy. Like TXChick, the wife & I really like glassware. I could see getting some more nice glass if we get a bigger place, after the bubble has run its course.
The backlash against McMansion-mania is coming. Some cases will get too extreme. But just wait until the FBs realize nobody wants their granite nightmare. It should be precious.
“The backlash against McMansion-mania is coming. Some cases will get too extreme. But just wait until the FBs realize nobody wants their granite nightmare. It should be precious.”
This will not happen. IT IS DIFFERENT THIS TIME - a Realtor told me so.
Fox news just said Housing Bubble is a myth. Time to move on
I almost puked watching that, for several reasons. Jim Michaels, Dennis Kneale and the fat black-haired chick all said all of the “local frothiness”, “bottom is in”, “demand is still strong” B.S. They even said Bernanke and Greenspan are completely right. They were joined by Steve “my dad wore ladies’ dresses” Forbes. It’s all the media’s fault was their conclusion. Just awful!
What was even worse was the fact that I found myself having to agree with Quentin “Marx was a Republican” Hardy and Leah “how big can a mole be on a person’s face” Goldman.
I immediately turned that $hit off. It’s back to my prayer meeting with my fellow prayer brother Jack Daniels. Amen!
lol
NYCB, I have to disagree with some of the Mc Mansion bashing. First off, they are not a new kid on the block, go into any New England town and you will find homes built 100 years ago that makes these new Mc mansions look like starter homes.
There is a cost benefit if you have a big family . We built a large home with the need to take care of ageing Parents, They are gone now and finding the Kids are saving money by staying home in this “apartment” area.
I disagree with your disagreement. Nearly every SFH being built today is a McMansion. I bet there were also a lot of small homes in those New England towns of which you write. There are no small SFHs being built. The argument that you can’t build smaller houses and make money is ludicrous. Like the auto inventory before it, the builders are lazy and want to build big just to maximize profits.
The numbers of McMansions being built are staggering. Families are shrinking, not growing. There are McMansions where there is no economic or demographic justification. You may be taking care of aging parents but most of those aging parents now wind up in nursing homes.
And the new McMansions wear granite like a uniform. The mere site of granite will eventually make people gag. Look at the trends in the 60s and 70s that we view as being so gaudy today. It will happen again.
I am with you that almost all homes built are way to big for whom is occupying them and there total use.
My point is that there is a place at times for a larger home.
Regarding nursing homes, I would hope anyone “sending” ones parents or family to these places at lest spend some time there.
unfortunately in our “ME’ times, taking care of someone just does not figure into a lot of the yuppie life plans.
Seven-out-of-seven times since 1955 when residential construction dropped off by over 25%, the rest of the economy went into recession. The WSJ is getting a clue that perhaps the eighth time will be no different…
—————————————————————————————————
Drop in Housing Starts Stirs Worry That Wider Economy Will Weaken
By Christopher Conkey in Washington and James R. Hagerty in Pittsburgh
A sharp drop-off in new-home construction is adding to concerns that the housing downturn’s impact could linger well into this year and may eventually seep into the wider economy… (article on p. A1 of today’s edition)
Hey GS, is residential of 25%?
I suppose that depends on how you measure “residential.” But, for instance, the Housing starts graph on p. A7 of this morning’s WSJ shows that starts peaked at 2.25m in early 2006 and subsequently dropped steeply to a recent level of 1.4m (which would be a 37.8% decline over one year).
Continuing into the next paragraph:
“Builders slashed construction of new homes last month to the lowest level in nearly a decade, a move that underscores the severity of the sector’s slump and signals that it will likely continue to be a drag on the economy at least through midyear.”
I realize that this time is different, but has there every in U.S. economic history been a comparable drop off in residential construction whose effect lingered for less than six months???
Yes, every r.e. shill is touting the ‘only a downturn through the first half of the year” crap. I think that must be the most recent talking points distributed this week, as a result of all of the housing crash newstories.
But I do agree in that there will be at least a moderate national recession as a result of the job losses and consumer spending dropoff. I suspect the recession will last at least 8-12 quarters.
Stucco, the real question is how many times has a housing downturn LEAD us into a recession, versus the times housing turned down as a RESULT of a recession (lead by non-housing factors)?
Thus, is it possible for the economy to hold up, with only housing suffering the downturn?
I would argue that whether the chicken or the egg came first is not important if, since the dawn of recorded time, chickens only come with eggs and vice versa.
I believe you used a flawed argument. All chickens are produced from eggs but all eggs do not produce chickens–some produce turtles, fish, ostriches, etc.
WSJ also has a commentary this morning, FINALLY stating that we are facing a credit crunch and cracks in the economy’s foundation, and blaming the FED!
If I could properly post my TinyURL you would see that Cramer has commented on the coming credit crisis. He thinks it will be great. His prediction is that it will drive the Dow up 17% for the year. I guess he believes in the recuperative power of excess liquidity. It will heal all wounds.
I’m pretty sure this is the link you were trying to post.
“…blaming the FED!”
And the FED already has their finger pointed at the GSEs. I recommend all finger pointers should review the recent twenty-years-worth of national housing legislation, as there are plenty of terrible national housing policy changes on which you can pin the blame. This would create a win-win situation for the current generation of economic policy makers, as a close look at the changes in the rules of the game suggests there is little that could have been done presently to fix the disaster that was already in progress by 1998.
–
A link would be nice.
Thanks.
Anybody catch our glorious leader’s press conference, earlier in the week?
I’m no clinical psychologist, but i’d say the man’s so far in over his head, it isn’t even funny.
Can’t pin this one on Clinton, the entire rise and fall of the housing empire, will have happened on his watch~
‘Can’t pin this one on Clinton, the entire rise and fall of the housing empire, will have happened on his watch~’
I beg to differ. The $500K capital gains tax exclusion that was passed on Clinton’s watch was like the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake that spawned tsunamis on the coasts all around the Indian Ocean basin. And as a regular poster here is always quick to point out, the language of the Community Banking bill has a great deal to do with relaxed underwriting standards (think of this as having an analogous effect to rampant beach-front development in coastal regions which are susceptible to tsunamis).
The tsunami hit the beaches around the Indian Ocean perimeter many hours after the earthquake that provided the impulse; similarly, the occurence of the housing bubble price blowout during W’s tenuer is in part due to the long time lag between disastrous national housing policy changes and their impact on the market.
I pay taxes on the $12.00 of interest I make on a savings account but these jerks get to sell their biggest asset tax-free. Yes, there is no War on Savers in this country. All politicians are morons.
All politicians are politically expedient morons.
I believe that all government is evil, and that trying to improve it is largely a waste of time.
-H.L. Mencken
Amen brother.
Er, when did prices start taking off?
If you think the public can wrap themselves around the idea that the language of the community banking bill is responsible for this debacle, go for it.
“Er, when did prices start taking off?”
Did you miss the point of my analogy? Because if you apply your logic to tsunamis, then the Indian Ocean earthquake had nothing to do with the loss of lives on coastal beaches around the perimeter, as the earthquake occurred minutes if not hours earlier.
Tsunamis are just a nice metaphor for what’s happening, but that’s it.
Calvin Coolidge never got the rap for the Great Depression.
“Tsunamis… nice metaphor”
I am sorry you don’t understand the parallel.
BULL**IT
The easy money did not start until after 9/11 - Read the press releases from the White House on bills Bush signed in 2003. Bush says that this will open up the credit markets and allow so many people to own houses that could not before.
The easy money started in 1994! The bank lending standards for the fractional reserve banking system occurred in 1995. There are Federal Reserve remarks from Fed members in 1994 and 1995 questioning whether this was going to create asset bubbles… It is not Clinton’s fault nor Bush’s - It is the political expedient of trying to make everybody happy. The first bubble from the actions were the stock market, but the housing bubble started in 1995 and just accelerated in the last 6 years.
re the $500k gain exclusion.
How many of the FB’s expecting to rent their homes out have actually understood the rules and realized they have to LIVE in their home for 2 of the last 5 years to qualify for the exemption.
“Luckily”, many won’t have any gain to be taxed. Others who expect to rent “until prices pick back up and we can get our well deserved humongous gain at 2005 prices”, might want to consider if that should be expected to be less than 3 years. I guess if they actually have a gain to protect after 3 or more years of renting, they can always move back in for 2 years. (Assuming they’ve saved enough to make the full payments again
)
Frank Raines was running the OMB under Clinton.
I found a house in metro Phoenix now listed for $300,000 that was purchased from the builder in late 2005 for just under $417,000 and refinanced in 2006 for $484,500!
http://tinyurl.com/2otrxm
There’s a house listed in the LA Times today, 660,000 off. Still 1.3 mill and still in Mar Vista, but that’s a good drop. Ad also claimed the house was “emotional”, so maybe the price change had to do with some sort of mood disorder the house has. Emotional? What the hell. Goes along with another one of my favorites: “pride of ownership.” What the hell does that mean relative to an individual house?
Also saw a house listed in Culver City today for 850K or so, and in the ad it said it was a “great alternative to renting.” Was the realtor drunk when they wrote that?
LOL I saw that Culver City house too. It’s actually listed for $869K
Stephen Levy has good news and bad news for the San Diego economy’s future outlook. (Can anyone comment on the 20% trees-to-the-sky growth rate Levy predicts for a heavily-real-estate-dependent economy facing an ongoing real estate correction???)
————————————————————————————————-
The good news:
‘Rosy future painted for county
20% job growth predicted through 2015, study says
By Dean Calbreath
STAFF WRITER
February 17, 2007
Thanks to its steadily growing industries, the San Diego County economy is poised to outpace the growth of the national and state economies through at least 2015, according to projections released yesterday by Palo Alto’s Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy.
Levy, who was trained at MIT and Stanford, projects that job levels will grow by 20.7 percent in the county from 2005 through 2015, compared with 17.3 percent in California and 13.4 percent in the nation.
“Sometimes we hear a lot of people complaining about how everyone’s leaving California and how we don’t have a strong economic base, but I think it’s clear that San Diego and California continue to have a strong economic base,” Levy said.’
And the bad news:
‘Levy warned that one thing that could slow job growth in the county is the high cost of housing. Even after months of declining prices, home prices in San Diego still are among the highest in the nation, and Levy warned that without more price corrections, housing prices are too high to support the projected job growth.
“You have a lot of great companies in San Diego, but you have to be able to afford to live there,” he said. “Housing is the linchpin of the economy. You can’t have continued economic growth unless you have enough housing.”
Levy said San Diego’s housing prices make it much less competitive with other regions, including Seattle, Las Vegas, Portland, Denver and Phoenix.
“The question is whether residents and political leaders are committed to making the region a great place to live and work so that companies and families will want and be able to locate here,” he said.
Cox, the SANDAG economist, noted that because of the high cost, the local housing market has expanded beyond the county’s borders into Riverside, Imperial and Orange counties as well as Tijuana. He does not think that trend is sustainable.
“People who choose to live here are going to have to rely more on condominiums and smaller, more dense, attached homes,” he said. “That’s not the way people have lived in San Diego in the past, but it will help us keep the costs down and keep things more affordable. We’re going to have to do that.”’
Dean Calbreath: (619) 293-1891; dean.calbreath@uniontrib.com
“(Can anyone comment on the 20% trees-to-the-sky growth rate Levy predicts for a heavily-real-estate-dependent economy facing an ongoing real estate correction???)”
GS, if this is to happen, my guess is that most of the growth will be back-end loaded.
OK, but 20%/year is nearly a quadrupling of the jobs base each decade. That back-end growth would have to be pretty darned explosive to make up for the real-estate bender the SD economy faces over the next five-or-so years. Did Levy just pull those numbers out of his arse? Or did something get lost in translation between Levy’s original report and the SD Union Tribune’s summary?
What makes you think he’s saying 20% annually — I took it to mean 20% from now until 2015.
Yes, and notice the three other columns, they are for 5 years. In other words they are comparing 2005 -2015 (10 years) with 5 year periods. Worst statistics fraud I’ve seen in a long time!
“You can’t have continued economic growth unless you have enough housing.”
This reall needs to read,
“You can’t have continued economic growth unless you have enough housing that people can afford, without using exotic financing or stretching their qualifying ratios
Got 10 minutes to watch something?
http://jet-man.com/playervideo.swf?video=jetman2007.flv
The music should be Rocket Man by Elton John……
Talk about a death wish….Geez.
I’d hate to have been the test pilot.
WHERE CAN I GET ONE!
That’s great! I would like to stick a couple of those mini turbines on my bike.
According to Business 2.0, median housing prices in Bridgeport, Connecticut will rise 63% in the next 5 years, to a median price of $784,000.
This is not a typo. Bridgeport median house = $784,000. Everyone wants to live in Fairfield County, and since they are priced out of Greenwich and Westport, it’s only logical that Bridgeport will be the next hot spot.
They published this with a straight face.
Maybe “they” are anticipating high future inflation?
this is the funniest comment ever. Bridgeport with a mill rate of over 40 and a horrible reputation for public schools. Yeah, let’s go live there… what’s next? Trumbull houses for $900000?
Not sure why, but the NVAR (Northern VA) numbers for January are *really* late this month. Normally they come out about the 10th of the next month, usually the next day after the MRIS numbers (on which the NVAR numbers are supposed* to be based) come out, but this month they’ve yet to be released, even though the MRIS numbers came out on the 9th.
*There’s been a marked growing discrepancy between the NVAR and MRIS numbers for Loudoun county, where I live. It looks to me like the NVAR is now fudging their numbers to try to make it look like the median prices are not going down.
see http://no-1-special.blogspot.com/2007/02/interesting-discrepancy-in-loudoun.html
i always go to http://www.virginiamls.com once a week or so
they peaked at around 18000 last year, down to just under 13000 now and i’m waiting for the spring
“You can’t have continued economic growth unless you have enough housing.”
This reall needs to read,
“You can’t have continued economic growth unless you have enough housing that people can afford, without using exotic financing or stretching their qualifying ratios.”
Exactly. How can an economist who trained at MIT and Stanford
be so clueless about economic reality on the ground? Or is he just blowing smoke to keep his base contented?
A while back a made a broad based comment about “junk science”. I should not have said science. This is the kind of “research” that I was referring to. These people get so high in their towers, that they just can’t see what is happening on the ground.
The Boston Federal Reserve Bank just published a “research report” indicating that high housing costs are detrimental to the Northeast region’s economy. The report was 173 pages long. (The research probably took years and a million dollars to complete.)
Well Golly’ Gee, Billy Bob, I isn’t no rocket scientist, but I could have told them 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 year ago, that this is where we heading. And I could of done it for free.
“These people get so high in their towers, …”
What kind of ganja do you think Levy is smoking?
In all honesty, I have met many top school folks…almost none impress me.
Back in the fall Bear Stearns said it would buy the wholesale subprime production arm of ECC Capital for $26 million. All well and good, right? But when the deal closed last week, ECC wound up paying Bear $7 million. Why? Apparently ECC — the parent of Encore Credit, the unit bought by Bear — owed the investment banker some money tied to its warehouse borrowings and other matters. Last year the two parties had — you guess it — loan buyback disputes…
http://www.brokeruniverse.com/hearing/
Game over!!
And I, in turn, have met a few “top school folks” who deeply impressed me (but I have never met Levy…).
It’s different in NY
http://tinyurl.com/39z6v5
Good Gawd Almighty…..
From the credit board, here’s some info a homebuyer posts about their financial health. Notice the term “baddies”?!? and there’s a Hooters card?!? “DH” means Darling Husband…..gag.
BTW, she’s worried the lender will check their bank account at close because they don’t have the required balance…..
“My FICO scores: 500’s
My Approvals since CB:
HSBC Plat. $300
Orchard Silver $300
CJ $1500
Hooters $2K
DH’s FICO’s:
2/12/07 EQ -609(5 med baddies) TU-650 (4 med. baddies) EX-587 (12 med. baddies)
Dh’s Approvals Since CB:
HSBC Platinum MC–unsecured $300
Orchard Silver–unsecured $300
Crown Jewelers $1500
Zales $400
Gordons $400
Hooters $750
Paypal Buyer Credit $200
Target Red $200″
2K hooters……… what does that mean? That bar and Restaurant?
Maybe by Hooters she means that’s the money she owes on her implants?
that is obviously the credit report of a financila wizard.
take my baby to hooters for some romantic dining,followed by some real crappy cheesy jewelery from zales
she is one lucky woman
Looks like she’s the one with $2,000 on the Hooter’s card. Is there such thing as a Hooter’s Card?
This is too much. Sure enough–who would have guessed–there is a Hooters Mastercard.
http://www.hooterscard.com/menu/home.aspx
I am so angry that people are allowed to dig themselves in a hole like this. I have to compete with these morons in the marketplace, bidding up the price of everything because they don’t get that credit is debt. I hope as people die off with massive debts that the lenders will realize that maybe they are lending out too much, if they want to get repaid. Or maybe there is some glorious tax benefit for lenders who have debtors “expire.”
A Hooters card. People find it necessary to charge fricken chicken wings. What a country!
I’ve concluded the “new paradigm” is a virus. Yesterday I drove thru a rural area and noticed a 3-story pseudo-French oversized box, probably 8,000 sq. ft., with the requisite pool. I mentioned it to my husband, who told me it belongs to a small contractor - one whose insurance he’d audited. My husband told me last year the guy lived in a 2/1 tract home.
Homes in the 6,000 to 8,000 sq ft range litter our area, a small southern Oregon valley with +/- 200K people, and a average household income struggling to stay over 40K.
Past the unbelievable financial misallocation, what on earth do these people think? That a small family needs/deserves/must have that kind of space? Given what’s occurring in the overall market, and the fact construction here is still outpacing anything that could be called demand, I wait, riveted, watching it unfold.
We’re renting an 1850 sq ft home on a large view lot, 70’s construction, in an area of similar homes, for $1200. It was being marketed a year ago for $434K. Breathtaking.
Last night I Instant Messaged with my ex-girlfriend, who is a Kuwaiti citizen. Your post on 8,000 square foot houses rang a bell. I remember her telling me years ago that the average house in Kuwait is like 4 or 5 times the size of the average American house, maybe larger.
Is Bernanke a bear now? Here is a quote from today’s WSJ:
“Several credible reports say we are facing a tidal wave of defaults and foreclosures, which could strip these families of their major, if not their only, source of wealth and long-term economic security.”
–
Is there a link for the web version?
Thanks.
Yes, here it is. See the box labeled “point of view”:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117167930652011972.html?mod=todays_us_page_one
Thanks. Vow, under Hot Topic!
Jas
By Bernanke saying the reports are credible, he is endorsing their view indirectly. Interesting.
I wish I could publish the true bear version: “Several credible reports say we are facing a tidal wave of defaults and foreclosures, which could strip these families of their major, if not their only, source of debt and short-term headache.”
We’re being set up for a bail out of some sort. I don’t think the fed will be able to bail out the FB’s (or, for that matter, would ever intend to), but there will be money flowing from the fed into the system to under the guise of “saving families, when in fact, it will wind up in the pockets of those who helped to create this mess in the first place (i.e., Bear Sterns, Merril Lynch, Fannie and Freddie, etc.)
Page A7 of today’s WSJ is a veritable a gold mine of housing bubble news, and there is a choice editorial on p. A8:
“How Expansions Die
…
The Fed’s remarkably easy monetary policy helped goose house prices over several years. In turn, a large number of first-time buyers took advantage of low mortgage rates, especially on adjustable-rate loans, to stretch their buying power in the hopes of leveraging their way up the home-buying ladder. But someone finally blew the dog whistle in late 2005, and the buying dried up.”
I never before thought of Ben’s posters as whistle blowers, but I think that is not a bad description.
P.S. Can anyone offer comment on the sharp break in trajectory exhibited in the top graph on p. A7 (”A Credit Cloud”)? It looks like someone doused the subprime lending fire with kerosene near the end of 2003.
if I remember, 2003 was the top for mortgage appliciations. in fact, I remember my local bank had a sign in 2004 that said you had to wait 2 weeks(or was it 4?) to have your mortgage application processed or looked at.
http://tinyurl.com/3yuaj9
This is one of JMF’s patented “I am without words” moments. MSN’s headline reads “US economic data point to soft landing” over an FT story that documents anything but.
You have to read through the entire article to get to the good news that must be what points toward a soft landing
Last two lines of article:
> Meanwhile, US inflation pressures eased as the producer price index fell 0.6 per cent, while core inflation excluding volatile food and energy prices rose 0.2 per cent, in line with expectations.
This must be it!
http://ask.metafilter.com/57127/Real-estate-agent-for-flippers
Someone’s looking for an agent to help them get a property to flip in DC. I hope they also have a time machine.
“Housing sector lag hits home in state: Building slowdown, budget fallout seen”
http://www.whittierdailynews.com/business/ci_5245113
[Funny that this article is not found online at sbsun.com nor in news.google -- I saw it in their print edition and had to google around to find the URL link.]
I know someone who is looking at houses in Missouri. He is on his second real estate clerk within 2 weeks. When I first found out he was being transferred to MO, I told him about the housing bubble and he got all pissed. Now, after being on the ground the past two weeks looking at houses, he smells blood. He lowballed on an REO and was countered. He walked away (I would have re-countered 10% below the first offer, personally). He talked to a builder early on and now the builder is calling HIM back. Oh, what a difference a year makes.
Go Anaheim! We’re #1! We’re #1!
I love it…the nosey neighbor: “I told the owner there’s something weird going on in there,” Martinez said.
http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/homepage/abox/article_1582975.php
Madison, Wisconsin Bubble Blog has been updated:
http://madisonhousingbubble.blogspot.com/
” If you buy realestate at current market prices, you are being not being smart.”
Thats okay as long as I’m not nuts or stooopid… where do I sign? After all I’d just be normal (not smart).
Last night on the local evening news in Los Angeles. Now is a good time to buy and renting is always a losing proposition.
http://abclocal.go.com/kabc/story?section=consumer&id=5039033
That realtor’s numbers are not realistic. I guarantee he is assuming rents rise at 20% a year and house prices do to. Totally unrealistic assumptions. What dishonest scum!
http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2007/3407real_est_hedges.html
Hedge fund endgame near? I smell fear.
From the article above:
“Two large private-equity takeover schemes speculating on the price of housing—one based in New York, the other in Germany—are threatening to blow up, one on the markets for junk bonds, the other in an IPO on the New York and Frankfurt stock markets. Both schemes, in addition to the prospect that they could fall apart and start a default chain in the huge global bubble of takeover debt, also represent the worst operations of the hedge and private equity funds as financial predators—’locusts’ as they are often called in Germany.”
Found an article saying that Connecticut will continue to see double-digit drops in number of homes sold, though prices will remain stable. I hope not.
http://piggington.com/guest_commentary_ramsey_on_foreclosure_impact
Commentary: Ramsey on Foreclosure Impact, from the Piggington site. Probably the single best assessment (and warning) I’ve seen in terms of quantifying the implications of ARM resets and soaring foreclosures.