Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For February 19, 2007
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In today’s NY Times, a piece about the local market “…for January, at least, both prices and the number of signed contracts rose in double-digit percentages compared with the same month in 2006.”
Times writer Tracie Rozhon attributes this to large Wall Street bonuses.
According to the article inventory is “shrinking fast” and prices are up 14%.
“…there is “cautious exuberance,” according to Steven L. James, director of Manhattan sales for Prudential Douglas Elliman.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/19/nyregion/19market.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Bkiddo,
I was just about to post this same article. I believe this is just a bounce in the bubble from the pullback. I also believe once all these high roller wall street flunkies spend all their money in short order they’ll be back to real estate hell.
I also believe world markets are in the process of topping currently, especially the Dow, those same execs wont be receiving windfall bonuses next year.
Perhaps all the Greater Fools are coming here.
Don’t discount the weather. While the Wall Street bonuses definitely played a large part in the increase in price and activity compared to 1/2006, keep in mind that much of 1/2007 was ridiculously warm in NYC.
And very cold in February. I’m sure they will point out the weather if it works against them but never if it works for them.
Don’t you know it is different in NY. They aren’t building anymore land. Condos and lofts will always go up. Too much demand, not enough supply.
“I also believe once all these high roller wall street flunkies spend all their money in short order they’ll be back to real estate hell.”
Until they get next year’s bonus money.
This was one of the biggest years they’ve ever seen because of all the mergers. When the merger bandwagon stops and the stock market doesnt perform as well, the bonuses will slow as well. As I remember they werent so robustfull in 2001.
Perhaps bonuses weren’t that robust in 2001, but if I remember correctly RE had an OK year that year in NYC, even with 9/11.
UK price up = probably in London only
yes, and I think the same goes for many other areas of the anglosaxon empire where finance activities etc. are concentrated. The people who benefit the most from the credit bubble are the banksters and their kin, they have more buying power than ever before. Maybe the cheaper houses simply rise along with the most expensive part of the market, all this money has to go somewhere and part of this gets transferred to homeowners lower on the property ladder. So one can expect that (average) prices keep rising around the financial capitals until some kind of serious crash puts an end to the current credit expansion.
“I also believe world markets are in the process of topping currently, especially the Dow, those same execs won’t be receiving windfall bonuses next year.”
maybe they won’t , but there is always the windfall severence package
Wow. Times has hit absolute bottom here in terms of integrity. This garbage delivery shocks even me. Notice the utter lack of data here. There are absolutely NO supporting figures mentioned anywhere in the story –but most importantly, nowhere on the Halstead, Corcoran or PruDogulas sites.
And notice the “preliminary” language. If there is even a teeny chance this is true — due to “wall st bonuses” –that is only a very tiny percentage of NYC market as whole, and not a good picture of housing market overall. Also where are the inventory figures here?
Caveat emptor to the nth degree in NYC - the RE industry (which hides real data) and the press (which serves the interests of the industry instead of its readers)
People on this blog don’t seem to get that demand for NYC real estate remains very firm. It’s a fact; accept it.
So garcap, how about you call Halstead, PruDouglas and Corcoran and ask them for data so we can post the numbers here?
People on this blog don’t accept unsupported, biased assertions about the market; we accept data (preferably unbiased). It’s sad enough we have to depend on the industry itself for data in NYC, but when the industry (and its media henchmen) assert a rosy market but conceal figures at the same time, what do you think that means? If you believe in firm demand in the face of this, I do have this bridge in Brooklyn for sale..
The last figs I have from NYSAR, for instance (which only covers Queens market - (gee I wonder why bklyn/ manhattan don’t give nysar their data??) shows both sales and prices down from Nov-Dec.
Didn’t Ben recently post about a double-digit YOY drop in the New York State median price? But perhaps those figures excluded NYC, since NYC is a nation-state, if not a planet, unto itself?
Yup!
http://www.nysar.com/pdfs/monthsales.pdf
note: pdf file
NYS v. NYC??? Apples and oranges, GS. Weak effort.
“Weak effort.”
I already acknowledged that NYC is almost a planet unto itself, but perhaps you are suggesting that it actually is part of another galaxy?
Same thing w/SF. I doubt that will be hit too hard either.
Help me understand why a median NYC homeowner income of around 65K (and stagnating), a jump in subprime loans, a growing foreclosure rate, a population that pays a huge percentage of income toward renting/owning (but where in most boros it’s still cheaper to rent than buy), a declining net migration –more folks moving out than in — will make us “diffent.” It’s not going to be pretty here. The math doesn’t lie.
http://nyc.gov/html/hpd/downloads/pdf/2005-Housing-and-vacancy-survey-initial-findings.pdf
I was wondering what percentage of NYC housing stock is foreign owned? My inclination is to think their owners’ incomes aren’t reflected in the NYC median. Or what about those who own homes in mulitiple states but do not claim their NY pad as their primary residence? Can anyone add any insight to this?
I’m thinking if Bono’s gross income (and all others in his financial league who own homes but do not claim primary residency) was included in the median NYC income tabulations, we’d get the reason why those prices appear so out of sync.
garcap:
Proof positive of the “timing abilities” in the Big Apple….With nearly the entire Real Estate Globe from Shang hi Sydney to Boise, in a “Bust”, excess supply pushing a 10 year high in most US Metro areas… New Yorkers boasting that their last to see the TOP!
The lenders that made it all possible with the “liar loans”, Sub Prime lenders close their doors daily {3 in Feb for Vegas}( financed by those same Wall Street firms (read… new yorkers) Didn’t I read here that Wachovia’s sub prime unit ( top 10 in loan production) has had its “grow” plug finally pulled…
Real Estate 101………real estate makes people wealthy not because they are smart but because of the use of leverage.
The Dominoes are falling everywhere but in New York it’s still the place of Bliss.., further evidence of a rolling top and NO sign of a bottom!
With nearly the entire Real Estate Globe from Shang hi Sydney to Boise, in a “Bust”
that is extremely overstated; most of the world is still in a huge and expanding housing bubble. The US and the few others you mention are the exceptions to the rule (even in Oz it’s mostly some speculative areas like Sydney, average home prices are still nearly the same as two years ago). Cities and city-states don’t really count imho.
So maybe the first dominos (not even markets with the highest appreciation) are starting to fall, but nothing more.
‘It’s a fact; accept it.’
Words of someone without facts to back them up, IMO. How does the cost of renting compare to the cost of owning? That’s really all you need to know.
Amen Ben. What I am seeing in NYC RE industry data is starting to look very much like a pump and dump scheme. I have seen in the last year RE industry press releases (REBNY) go from touting all kinds of data –on prices/inventory etc. to hiding these figures, and the methodology behind them. It is very dismaying, not to mention highly irresponsible, for the press to keep the party going in light of this. Their collaboration is only going to make the bust worse.
Math, who needs math? We don’t need math, facts or any of that silly stuff. We got realtors to tell us what’s up.
Not too long ago the local stations were all running stories (complete with interviews from some La Jolla RE professionals) telling us how the San Diego was the new playground for the rich.
“That’s really all you need to know.”
I submit that it might also be useful to know how many NYC cab drivers and hair dressers have run a sideline business flipping real estate in recent years, but perhaps very hard to get the data. Garcap, can you help us out on that one?
I’ve been through the math a number of times here before, but I’ll go through it again. All I said is that demand in NYC is strong (there are still lots of people buying, multiple offers, prices basically unchanged in Manhattan)….I go to the open houses and have friends family members who have been buying/selling over the last 6 months. There view is that things are slow but that prices are basically unchanged…
Anyway, here are the numbers:
Renting a nice, centrally-located 1BR in NYC costs about $3,500. A crappy walk-up maybe runs you $500 less per month. Let’s assume that rents rise 2.5% a year (well below recent trends).
Compare that with buying:
Let’s say that you buy a 600 sq ft 1BR for $950/ sq. ft (about the going rate)…and that taxes and common charges are $1,000 per month with 50% tax deductibility.
Assuming you put 20% down and finance at 6.25%, the post- tax NAV of owning the apartment after 30 years is $1.3mm versus renting and investing at 5% which yields a post tax NAV of $700K according to the Bloomberg rent-or-buy calculator. By the way, I set the calculator at 0% appreciation and had aholding period of 30 years. At 10 years it’s still better to buy. At 5 years it’s a wash.
Someone on this blog will find an apartment listed for rent on craigslist for less than what I have listed above…those listings are mostly b.s.
Comparing prices to incomes in NYC is flawed because many people here have significant assets aside from their income streams (trust funds/wealthy parents, retirees, stock options) and there is huge demand from people who live outside of the city to own apartments here.
Outer boroughs and suburbs are different and I don’t know much about them…
My view on the NYC RE market is basically that it may sag in the coming years (down maybe 20% over 3 years) but it won’t crash.
And if you think that prices in NYC are being propped up by Wall Street bonus money you’re probably wrong about that, too. Investment banks and hedge funds are global and have staff all over the world…something like 3/4 of all IPOs took place outside of the US last year, while M&A is also a significant part of the pie outside of the US. That means the bonus money shows up in London, Hong Kong and Tokyo, not just NYC. Also there are a lot of US-based bankers, traders and fund managers who live in Boston, SF, Chicago, Houston, etc.
First problem — on ny times RE listings - you’ll find plenty of DM elev lux rentals for 1brs at 2500 mo range.
2nd - how are you calculating NAV precisely? Are you figuring the 20 percent haircut you mentioned? ANd are you raising maintenance /taxes / insurance accordingly?
3rd -how bout those numerical “facts” from Halstead et. al - made any calls yet?
Wickedheart-
SD may have some beautiful places/neighborhoods, but that’s it. Woody Allen’s description of LA (”The only cultural advantage is being able to make a right on red”) applies to SoCal in general. Without culture, it’s hard to attract wealth and talent…The fact is that NYC does attract wealth and talent in droves…and has for decades.
A friend of mine is renting a perfectly nice one-bedroom duplex, with a separate kitchen, in an elevator building at perfect location, next to Union Square - for $2,400/month. The apartment doesn’t have a doorman, but that’s the only drawback.
“First problem — on ny times RE listings - you’ll find plenty of DM elev lux rentals for 1brs at 2500 mo range.”
Yeah, in East Harlem or UES on York Ave. Find me a 600 sq ft. elvator/DM building on the UWS, Chelsea, Flatiron, or GV within a few blocks of a subway that’s not a rat’s nest for less than $3,000. Oh, and get ready to pay a broker 15% of the annual rent to get it for you.
The point is that rents are high in NYC and rising and that there a lot of people with a lot of money here. Until that changes prices here won’t crater. THIS IS NOT ORLANDO.
NYChk-
A friend of mine just bought a 1BR in North Union Square…DM, Elevator, no view (low floor). $450k with $650 in common charges. Small apartment, but has a patio.
Bloomberg rent-or-buy says that the NAV post tax is $360k in her favor over the next 30 years using the same parameters I used above.
I waiting for someone here to tell me that Bloomberg analytics is biased because it is part of the Ultasecret International Banking Cartel (sometimes known as the Plunge Protection Team) that has created every war and every bubble since the dawn of civilization.
Go look at ny times listings -there are 1brs all over the city - dm /elev for 2500 — and less. Also, again let me repeat - median homeowner income in nyc: 65K as of 2005 furman study - if you have any different income figures, please share.
Garcap, you’re being an idiot. Of course your average rent is going to be high if you decree that the only rents that matter for your comparison are 4 of the best neighborhoods on the island and only within a few blocks of a subway stop. That’s the creme de la creme. A 1BR on York Avenue is not a “rats nest” even if you do have to walk a few extra blocks to get to the #6 stop. A nice river view is worth the extra walking.
Housegeek-
As I said above, median incomes to prices are misleading here because of trust funds/retirees/non-resident owners. I only know one person living in Manhattan who has a salary of less than $65k per year. In fact, he has no salary at all….he’s in his late 30’s and has millions in the bank (self made and not on Wall St.) moved to NYC to retire. He and his wife just bought a multimillion $ loft; paid cash. As for “all over the city” you need to be carefull, because prices are not $1,000 per sq ft all over the city.
fiat lux-
Thanks for the gratuiutous ad hominem attack. See my reply to NYchk’s post above for the perfect apples-to-apples comparison at Union Square. Also, my original comment specifically referred to centrally located areas because this is basically the scope of my knowledge about the market (I follow parts of Brooklyn, too). I would also bet that the average York Ave co-op doesn’t fetch $950 per sq ft.
“Without culture, it’s hard to attract wealth and talent…The fact is that NYC does attract wealth and talent in droves…and has for decades.”
Said like a New Yorker who is choking on his own hubris! I can’t wait until the beachfront (CA/FL) real estate tsunami reaches lower Manhattan. And it is only a matter of time — it took about three years for the Florida real estate bust of 1926 to hit NYC in 1929, but with the short-circuit effect on information flows of the internet pitted against government agencies playing with computers and options, all bets are off how the timing will play out this time around.
garcap - it’s not apples to apples… My friend’s apartment has nice view and plenty of light, not low floor, and definitely not small.
Currently for $450,000 in the area one can only buy a glorified studio, not a true one-bedroom with two separate rooms and kitchen.
Gotta’ be honest - I can’t even sort of imagine this scenario ever playing out in my life, …one open house attracted 100 people to an Upper West Side one-bedroom; a $2.475 million house in the Park Slope neighborhood of Brooklyn sold in a day….
I agree that things are different in NYC, but only because it seems there’s so much friggin’ wealth there that it’s pretty much unfathomable to most people.
But to take this a step further - none of this applies to the hard-working, average-earning salary folk in NYC. It’s the disgustingly wealthy ones who make this seem like fairytaleland.
“It’s a fact; accept it.”
NYC is, always has been, and always will be immune from real estate downturns. Except for some unfortunate periods in the 1930s and 1970s — those were different.
What about 1989 - 1994 when real estate fell by more than 30%?
If you bought in the late 80’s in NYC and sold, say, in 2000 would you have been better or worse off than if you rented and parked the monthy savings in a money market fund?
Yup! NY City is sure different. Only city in America that the federal Governement had to bail out when their bonds turned to junk, (was it 1987). Anyway, real estate prices were below “toilet” level, but according to you, it couldn’t happen again.
Last-Minute Bailout Of a City on the Brink Time Magazine
Dec 8, 1975.
“Last-Minute Bailout Of a City on the Brink Time Magazine
Dec 8, 1975.”
NYC is different, thanks to their too-big-to-fail guarantee, courtesy of the US taxpayer.
The article did have a couple of statistics, however IF the article is true - dead cat bounce. “Jonathan Miller, the president of Miller Samuel, an appraisal firm, said the number of contracts signed this January was 19.4 percent higher than in January 2006. Prices were up 14.4 percent in the same time period. ” There were a few other statistics, including traffic at open houses.
Some real numbers for NYC real estate.
Historically a slow period, the fourth quarter had 2,441 sales — up 55.1 percent from the 1,574 recorded sales transactions of 2005’s fourth quarter. Sales were also up 15.5 percent from the quarter before, according to a report by appraisal firm Miller Samuel.
“I was away after Christmas and came home from my trip four days early because we were that busy,” said Prudential Douglas Elliman executive vice president Darren Sukenik in late January. “It’s been steady, constant and serious since the first week in November. It hasn’t let up at all, there have been no breaks.”
Buzz about Wall Street bonus money and declining interest rates are responsible for the 15.5 percent increase in sales activity, brokers say. The average rate for a 30-year, fixed mortgage dropped to around 6.04 percent last month from 6.8 percent during the summer.
“Sales under $1 million were interest-rate sensitive and sales under $2 million were bonus driven,” Sukenik said.
But downward-trending mortgage rates didn’t really result in much change in affordability, according to Miller Samuel president and CEO Jonathan Miller.
“It was more symbolic for a tremendous amount of people on the sidelines concerned about the future,” he added.
Wall Street notched a second consecutive record year for bonuses, the fourth consecutive year-over-year increase. However, market watchers say some of the recent bonus-boosted deals are residual.
“Wall Street market money trickles in,” said Dottie Herman, president and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman. “Some people spend it right before, some spend it right after, some spend it over the next year or decide not to spend it at all.”
Although it took a while, sellers finally adjusted to the changing market, brokers said. The third quarter of 2005 marked the end of the housing boom, but it wasn’t until the end of 2006 that sellers became realistic about how much educated buyers were willing to pay in a competitive market.
“The way you characterize the 2006 market is some properties were selling but a lot weren’t because they were overpriced. Sellers had a name-your-price mentality and thought a buyer would come along,” Miller said. “But it took a little time to sell in the current market, and if it isn’t priced right, then it simply won’t sell.”
As 2006 came to a close, the average sales price of $1,224,840 in the fourth quarter had dropped 5 percent from the third quarter price of $1,288,748, according to Miller Samuel. Miller said the quarterly decrease is due to a seasonal effect experienced each year going back for the last 16 years.
More importantly, the average gap between the sales price and asking price tightened between the third and fourth quarter — a sign the disconnect between sellers asking too much for their apartments and buyers not willing to pay that amount had diminished.
According to Sukenik, his clients who finally adjusted their prices down by 5 to 7 percent during the fourth quarter were able to sell.
“Sellers had to adjust their expectations,” Sukenik said. “Buyers want to feel like they’re perceiving value that’s fairly and appropriately priced.”
The improving real estate market was also marked by the declining supply of inventory. Between the third and fourth quarter, Miller Samuel data reported a 22.2 percent drop in the number of apartments for sale to 5,934 in the final quarter.
Inventory will grow during the first quarter of 2007, predicted Miller. But the majority of housing stock currently out on the market isn’t impressive, say some brokers.
“There is a low amount of good inventory. It’s mostly B- housing stock in C- locations,” Sukenik said.
Another reason for buyers to purchase was declining prices per square foot. Fourth-quarter data reported a 5 percent drop in the average price per square foot to $998, down from $1,050 in the prior quarter, Miller Samuel found. However, the number was only a 0.4 percent drop from the same time the prior year.
So to paraphrase the article you quote above, inventories are down, sales activity is up, and prices are down a little year over year in NYC. Not so bad. Why? Because demand remains firm here. Wait for prices to fall by 50% in Manhattan and you’ll wait a long time.
“Times writer Tracie Rozhon attributes this to large Wall Street bonuses.”
That’s what I said here a week-or-so back. Except I was joking
read the NY Times article as well and live in queens. my co-op management just sold a 1br apartment in a few weeks on the market. the asking price was something like 20% over last year’s prices but i’m not sure what the final sale price was. i’ll have to look it up in ACRIS in a month or so. at least in my co-op last year was like a 20% increase in prices. it does help that the average income in the area is between $50,000 and $70,000 and we are just now going past the 3 to 1 ratio for 1br prices. my purchase price 3 1/2 years ago is equal to my income. if i was still single it would be a 2 to 1 income to price ratio.
i think this is the top and we’ll be flat for years to come. i think the biggest risk here is the number of idiots who bought homes in florida and arizona is still unknown. foreclosures there could cause foreclosures here as people sell to pay the tax penalty.
“The plunger that freed up all the hesitation at all price levels was those bonuses,” said Diane Ramirez, the president of Halstead Property. “It cleaned the pipes and gave confidence to even small apartment buyers.”
More evidence that prices are vapor-based.
This will drive the median / average price up….but they are not buying 3-2 $600K Capes on Long Island, I can assure you.
Where do you even start with this feel-good Bull$hit. This town is so leveraged it is not even funny. When the credit starts to unwind there is going to be a smacking unlike anything ever seen.
I am so sick of hearing about those f-cking bonuses. Everybody in this city thinks they are entitled to one of those bonuses, for doing nothing. But more important is the fact that $16 billion in bonuses in a metro area of millions and millions of people is not all that much money. Take away taxes and frivolous windfall spending and what do you have left? $5 billion maybe? That will buy a grand total of 5,000 $1 million homes. Yes, I know they aren’t paying cash. Even the rich guys will finance.
The coming luxury condo glut in Manhattan is ridiculous. Every time I go to a new neighborhood I see more and more of it. This weekend we were on the Lower East Side. They are building like crazy. Tear down the old 4-story tenement and put up a luxury 10-story condo building. It appears that 2007 is the year when many of these projects finally get completed. Look out then. There had better be a heck of a lot of bonuses in 2007, which at this pace, there will be.
Somebody earlier wrote that owning in Queens is on par with renting. Bwahahahaha. That’s a laugh. I work with a guy whose parents own a house in Queens that would probably sell for $650,000. This is in a neighborhood where the average income is probably $50,000. This entire area is setting itself up for a colossal fall.
No BS, if a good part of the billions just granted for bonuses get spent on high end real estate, it will temporarily drive the median and average price up. 2,000 $2.5 million homes/condos sold will have an impact on the median. But for the vast majority, it will have no effect.
“…part of the billions just granted for bonuses get spent on high end real estate,…”
Too bad bonuses are a one-shot, or else maybe those big price increases could turn into a permanently high plateau…
And again, if Wall St. money is fueling a rebound -don’t you think the industry would be glad to supply actual numbers proving their point?
there was a news item just this past week in the local news that there are 100 houses per week going into foreclosure in nyc. did they mention that in today’s nyt article?
we went to an open house this past weekend in astoria, at riverview apts. on 21st street (the old eagle electric factory). we arrived at about 3pm (they were scheduled to close at 4pm), there were no signs or open doors signaling that they were showing. you had to ring a rickety bell (that was half falling off its mounting) at the service entrance and wait for someone to come out. the sign-in sheet had three names on it. the coops (they are presumably going condo in five years) were grossly overpriced for what we saw. the whole building was cold and drafty, the hallways were still just cement-walled and floored (they’re due for a march-april opening). i asked the clerk showing the apartments how many they’ve pre-sold and he said, “a couple.” he looked like a former gang member and had a badly sculpted haircut, or it was a scar on his head (hard to tell). there was a strange musty smell in the hallways of the old part of the building (which made me wonder if there remained any waste from the electric works). the apartments themselves were very big. only thing is they’re very badly designed. only one bathroom in the two-bedrooms and in every apartment the bathroom was far from the bedrooms. the kitchens were miniscule, and even though the countertops were granite, they all had sharp edges. there were tile floors in the kitchen, but badly leveled so that moving between living room and kitchen had a little bump. the floors in all other rooms was pergo, which was already cracking under doorways or not sealed down on the cement properly so they were bubbling up. the windows were those huge industrial openings from the old days, so all the windows gave the feeling that you were living in a public school classroom, and some panes were glazed over “to prevent glare” from the outside. result? seriously flawed “views” of the nearby triborough bridge, which as we know, day and night, produces a noise of constant traffic. the views of the park and the east river would all be blocked by trees in the summer months, at least on the lower floors.
the price of these apts? from about 565k for a one-bedroom and 635-700k for two-bedrooms. more for the three-bedrooms. there’s also a monthly common charge of $1 per square foot and the two-bedrooms are about 1200-1400 sq.ft. there’s a parking lot in the building, but you’d have to pay an extra $150 per month for a spot. they’ll have a doorman from 7am-10pm daily.
the average salary in astoria is $60k/yr. if you make twice that, you wouldn’t be able to afford these apartments. who needs to go to manhattan to overpay? rents in astoria average about $1500 for a two-bedroom. what’s the advantage of buying one of the several thousand that will come to market in the next couple years?
talk about the greater fool! my guess is that they’re running out of fools, running out of wall st. bonus recipients, running out of excuses that “nyc is different” and are now in the desperate stage.
OK, new buildings are going up in Manhattan with new luxury condos. Isn’t it also safe to say that there have been a lot millionaires created recently in NYC, too?
The rich are different.
“The rich are different from you and me.” — F. Scott Fitzgerald.
“Yes, they have more money.” — Ernest Hemingway.
maybe we need to to venture outside our housing blog box, however I suggest you need to venture outside your personal box too
From Boldt Castle: In Search of the Lost Story
Paul Malo
The author is interviewing a family member who’s home has been across from Boldt Castle for generations.
“Our older, family boats are at the Antique Boat Museum in Clayton,” Courtney explained. “My parents acquired these here back in the ‘thirties and ‘forties, when many families were giving up their island places. Few local folks had money to spend on luxuries and, during the war, fuel was rationed. I remember them buying this job when I was a kid. Four hundred dollars.” It was a double-cockpit runabout with red leather uphostery. “Today it’s an antique itself.”
“Four hundred dollars! That’s a couple of nights at a local hotel these days.”
“But a lot of money during the Depression. There was some criticism of our arrogance, continuing to live extravagantly with servants and all, but we gave employment to a lot of local folk when they needed it. The place was sad-grim, when I was a boy. I remember when the old Yacht Club building went up for tax sale-……..”
(Author:) You explained that your family never had one of the tall - masted (100+ foot) yachts. But still it must have been a big steam yacht?”
“Commodious, you might say, but not grandiose. My family, I supose thought the sea monsters ostentatious-which they surely were. That was the whole idea. We used to say, ‘the smaller the fortune the larger the yacht.’ There was some truth to that.”"
Can you imagine those 100 foot yachts chugging around the St. Lawrence during the Depression? The interviewee Courtney explained many were never sailed but were just for show. It went with the island.
Sometimes when I’m reading posts here I think too many underestimate how many will still do quite well despite any economic downturn.
fannie and freddie risk premiums at new lows
plus
the impact of the petrodollar
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/
“fannie and freddie risk premiums at new lows”
Investers have priced in a taxpayer-funded bailout…
it smells that way.
on the other hand almost every other risk premium is also non existent.
weird / historic times
I can think of one risk premium which has recently made a grand entry onto the world’s financial stage (scroll down to see graph:
http://economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8706627 ).
what i find the most stunning was this number
Fannie and Freddie bought 25.2% of the record $272.81 billion in subprime MBS sold in the first half of 2006, according to Inside Mortgage Finance Publications, a Bethesda, Md.-based publisher that covers the home loan industry.
In 2005, Fannie and Freddie purchased 35.3% of all subprime MBS, the publication estimated. The year before, the two purchased almost 44% of all subprime MBS sold.
Three big lenders, NovaStar Financial , Deutsche Bank and BNC Mortgage, part of Lehman Brothers , sold more than half of their subprime MBS to Fannie and Freddie this year
i didn´t know or have forgotten that fnm and fre are involved so heavily in the subprime market. even when this are the aaa rated tranches. how long will it take that even this “safe” tranches are effected?
“Johnny’s in the basement
Mixin’ up the medicine
I’m on the pavement
Thinkin’ about the government
Man in a trench coat
Bad job laid off
Said he’s got a bad bill
Wants to get it paid off
Look out kid
There’s somethin’ you did
God knows when
But he’s doin’ it again”
The old Subterranean Homesick Blues are coming back around. They certainly are mixing up the medicine. Too bad it’s going to kill the patient this time around.
Yet we still hear all this happy talk here in NYC. “It’s so different here.” It sure is. This whole area is leveraged to the teats and the suppy glut is still on the way.
Something has to give. I just hope it’s not the whole darn system.
“Three big lenders, NovaStar Financial , Deutsche Bank and BNC Mortgage, part of Lehman Brothers , sold more than half of their subprime MBS to Fannie and Freddie this year”
Think of this as the international investment banking community passing the bag over to American taxpayers.
not really passing the bag to American taxpayers, because F&F again passed most of the stuff to EU pensions funds etc.
“F&F again passed most of the stuff to EU pensions”
How will Congress convince EU pensions to chip in their fair share for the F&F bailout? It is much easier to stick the tab to abysmally ignorant US taxpayers (again).
More ProoF; the US money creation experiment using the finacial derivatives is NOT working…………
Question: {JMF}
When risk premiums are @ or near zero.
What expected direction is next………a) never ending move to near zero or b) a reversal is near at hand?
You described risk in a the classic PARABOLIC, history suggest (b) is next!
agree. the only question is when…….
here is in addition to the petrodollar story a good bloomberg video with the sheikh of qatar
looks like they are not buying us bonds
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vDmGNihdPLYU.asf
Florence and Normandie:
http://louminatti.blogspot.com/2007/02/florence-and-normandie.html
“Florence and Normandie:”
The 1992 LA Riots got started in that general area. Incredible that Housing prices for 80, even 100 yr old POS decayed claptraps in Scentral LA are going for $400-500,000. 90% of the purchasers of these homes are working class recent hspanic immigrants, most of the purchase activity happening last several years using toxic subprime mort products. Also, quite a few of the purchases of aging duplexes, triplexes, quads are being made by immigrants all over LA county via same toxic loans.
The immigrants all over inner LA city areas have been attempting to set themselves up as landlords by buying and renting out cheap motel-like multi-units and/or aging large partitioned victorian and craftsman Sfh’s to fellow hispanics immigrants, many no doubt illegal.
This may partly explain the odd bubble runup in prices in the hood slumzones of LA. I checked on foreclosure.com and did notice quite a few defaults/REO’s on dup/tri/quads for loan amts of average $700,000 and up in marginal areas of LA and Long Beach.
It looks like a nice, quiet neighborhood. Can you hook me up with a local “real estate professional” so I can begin searching for a nice property?
yahoo finance marquee - RE gets beat by stocks & bonds
old news to us but very MSM
Housing Market Heats Up Again in New York City
“Since the new year began, a burst of activity has broken out in Manhattan and several Brooklyn neighborhoods as New Yorkers frenetically hunt for co-ops, condominiums and town houses, sending prices higher despite sluggish sales in many other cities.
“Preliminary indications from real estate firms showed that this increased activity, with open houses jammed and bidding wars taking place, has occurred in all price ranges — from tiny studios in the East Village to red-brick mansions on the Upper East Side — in counterpoint to the heavily weighted record sales of luxury properties that led the market in the late summer and fall.
“Real estate brokers and statisticians are quick to point out that not every single apartment is flying into contract. During the last quarter of 2006, the major real estate agencies differed on which way prices were headed.
“But now, the three largest real estate companies in the city agree: for January, at least, both prices and the number of signed contracts rose in double-digit percentages compared with the same month in 2006.”
Sorry, I think this was already posted above (the first post in this thread).
I finally had a chance to carefully read the article on subprime lending in the most recent edition of The Economist (”American Mortgages: Bleak Houses” http://economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8706627 ).
The last couple of paragraphs address the fascinating issue of bagholder identification. I am wondering if, when the dust settles, the California governor will go after the Eastern establishment kingpins who fronted the money for luring so many Californians into using mortgage time-bombs to purchase homes they could not afford?
“Should loan losses climb, investors in mortgage-backed securities will also get burnt, especially those holding the riskier, higher-yielding bonds. Financial engineers worked their mysterious magic with these securities, turning the junkiest mortgages into high-grade, sometimes AAA-rated, securities. They could do this only with the blessing of credit-ratings agencies, which made a profitable business out of rating these securities. But critics say the agencies got complacent, and doubt the pooled loans were sufficiently diverse, or sliced up with sufficient art truly to have dispersed risk. One possible blind spot is that the dodgiest mortgages all behave similarly in times of stress. Another is that it is hard to avoid heavy exposure to mortgages from California, the biggest market in America, where alternative products were popular.
No one quite knows in whose hands these little bombs will ultimately explode. The hope is that the risks are widely and thinly spread. The fear is that they all sit in the lap of a few big hedge funds. But the real casualties may be homeowners, who often took out risky loans they could barely afford or did not understand. The FDIC has already tightened rules on underwriting negative-amortisation loans, and the Senate has begun to hold hearings on predatory mortgage lending. With Democrats now in charge of Congress, there is a fair chance the politicians will act. The Eliot Spitzer of the housing downturn may be about to start his charge.”
elliott stopped short of annuaties- the real investment whorehouse
can’t get elected if you tell the whole truth
“I am wondering if, when the dust settles, the California governor will go after the Eastern establishment kingpins who fronted the money for luring so many Californians into using mortgage time-bombs to purchase homes they could not afford?”
Maybe California will finally secede. Woohoo!
Although Asia may not be THE bagholder they are A bagholder as we suspected!
Freddie Mac Says Demand for Bonds in Asia Is `Strong’
From Bloomberg:
“Freddie Mac sold 35 percent of its reference notes to investors in Asia in the 12 months ended Sept. 30, compared with about 16 percent in 2001, according to company figures. Reference notes have a minimum issue size of $3 billion.
“Continued interest will support that sort of level,” in the coming months, said Cook.
Asian investors bought about $135 billion net of U.S. agency debt last year, compared with net purchases of around $66 billion in government notes and bonds, according to Treasury Department figures. Buying of agency debt increased from $118 billion in 2005.”
http://tinyurl.com/298no6
I read that some banks are offering no-fee refi’s to ARM holders. The bankers know that anyone who declines a no brainer deal like this is in financial trouble.
“The irony is that if Alvarez sells, she, too, will be priced out of the region. If Alvarez ever buys in South Florida again, she will be hit with much higher property taxes and insurance costs. ‘We’ll never be able to afford to live here again,’ Alvarez says matter-of-factly. ‘We don’t plan on coming back.’”
Unless insurance and taxes can be reduced, this represents he death knell for Florida Real Estate.
Oops, this ended up in wrong article.
to continue the property tax discussion from the previous thread
I can understand taxes rising 4% or so every year even though I think it’s too much since governments should be efficient. but here in the NYC it’s crazy. 10% or more annually for the last 10 years. no one with a straight face can argue that it was a normal increase in the cost of services. studies have been done about how bloated local governments are and this is the reason.
pension costs are rising and this is the primary driver of property taxes. one of the best things to do is research an area that won’t be affected by this and move there and let the idiots in places like the NYC suburbs along with NJ and CT sort out the pieces.
pension costs are rising and this is the primary driver of property taxes. one of the best things to do is research an area that won’t be affected by this and move there and let the idiots in places like the NYC suburbs along with NJ and CT sort out the pieces.
=============================================
I wanted this to stand out because this is SO DAMN IMPORTANT
There is NO PLACE to move that pensions will be low cost………
Because pension plans were based on having a certain number of people die each year from smoking related illneses….now that NEW Government workers Dont Smoke….
They live longer and will bankrupt EVERY CITIES pension plans, unless they pay more up front, or we extend to 30 years service before you can collect a full pension….20 years and out is no long a solvent pension plan
Consider this an unintended consequece of the non-smoking campaigns.
Were public pension plans put in place for the benifit of the employee or were we just led to believe that?
Life is a bitch but death is the only way out!
FAMILY FINANCES
The Wall Street Journal Sunday
‘Short Sales’ Rise
As Housing Market Cools
By RUTH SIMON
February 18, 2007
As the number of borrowers falling behind on their mortgage payments climbs to the highest level in five years, the number of “short sales” is increasing.
In a short sale of a home, a lender allows the property to be sold for less than the total amount due. In many cases, the lender forgives the remaining debt.
Short sales fell out of favor when mortgage delinquencies were low and rising home prices made it easy for borrowers who ran into trouble to sell their homes or refinance their mortgages. But as the housing market cools, interest in short sales is increasing.
Bank of America says it saw short sales of homes increase 25% last year, albeit from relatively low levels. In San Diego, the number of entries in the local multiple-listing service that include the words “short sale” has climbed to 129 from 50 a little more than a year ago, according to Sandicor, the local multiple-listing service.
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB117175327453912404.html?mod=sunday_journal_primary_hs
Gamblers, beware…
—————————————————————————————————–
Market Preview: Japanese rate decision vital to global risk appetite
By Chris Flood
Published: February 16 2007 19:41 | Last updated: February 16 2007 19:41
The Bank of Japan’s decision on interest rates on Wednesday is a crucial event for global asset markets in a relatively quiet week for data releases. Ultra-low Japanese interest rates provide cheap financing for “carry trades” where hedge funds borrow in yen and invest in higher yielding assets elsewhere.
Japan’s policy interest rate – the overnight call rate – stands at just 0.25 per cent but money markets are pricing in further increases. Concern is mounting that a rise in Japanese interest rates could provoke a rapid unwinding of some carry trades, spreading weakness across other asset classes such as emerging market currencies and equities. Investors need little reminding of how sharply sentiment can turn after last May, when the FTSE emerging markets index dropped by almost a quarter in just five weeks.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/7ab0d028-bddc-11db-bd86-0000779e2340.html
Whither China in the year of the pig?
Commentary: Could time for a major move in China’s pegged currency
By Craig Stephen
Last Update: 8:17 PM ET Feb 18, 2007
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — When it comes to the direction of bull and bear markets, generally investors know where they stand, but what to make of a pig?
This week marks a new Chinese New Year, the Year of the Pig, and in Hong Kong shops and restaurants are festooned with golden pigs to bring good fortune.
But soothsayers have been quick to point out this is actually a year of the fire pig marked by upheavals, changes of government and landmark political shifts. Not only is the Year of the Pig not matched with lucky gold, it is fire that sits on water putting the elements in conflict. Further this year’s flames are not even a yang fire, symbolizing warmth of the sun, politeness and optimism. Instead it’s a yin fire that signifies the spark of tension, conflict and even war.
For investors talking stock at Lunar New Year, it might be worth considering the last year of a yin fire was 1997 - the year of Asian financial crises when market bubbles burst and currencies collapsed across the region.
Today, currencies and bubbles are again back in focus, with most eyes on trading goliath China and the sensitive position of its pegged currency in the global economy. If anything encapsulates a landmark political shift, a major move in China’s pegged currency to the U.S. dollar since 1993 would surely fit the bill.
http://tinyurl.com/29vhuf
Is that cooking bacon I smell?
Pigs always get slaughtered, so will this market.
Whether you believe this stuff or not, it’s funny how the omens look bad no matter where you look.
Just what the RE industry needs - the year of the flaming pig. Hard to spin that one.
Can anyone tell me how to keep track of the basic inventory number for Virginia statewide?
I’ve seen people talk about zip but I don’t see a overall number there. It may be that I need to plug the numbers into a spreadsheet and keep track that way which is no problem but if there is an easy source that would be good.
The reason I ask is in digging in response to my realtor friend I did a search on the Washington Post site with the criteria Virginia at any price and I got 20080 listings.
It is probably that expired listings hang there etc., but that is a much bigger number than I remember someone here posting that mentioned the total had gone from 18k high to 13k now.
Thanks.
curious, why the whole state ? aren’t you NVA
nva alot happens- tidewater /norfolk some happens when military changes- the rest of the state nothing ever happens
check us out http://www.fcta.org
Just trying to compare various numbers, all of Virginia, NoVa as the spring proceeds.
The more I’ve thought about my realtor friend I think there is a massive effort to talk the market up. They believe (the REIC) that the market was talked down by blogs like this. I see a massive unaffordability problem for the majority of people I know.
My friend is well meaning, she’s a great girl, but I want to keep track of inventory to counter with.
I also wonder if there is a subprime DCB going on. I was told by the same friend that it is only subprime buying right now for the most part.
Even if the market were ‘bottoming out’ I certainly couldn’t afford to buy here if I am to continue to remain prudent and save.
Novasold
http://www.virginiamls.com
on top there is a daily inventory list link
Subprime defaults.
I’ve currently been assigned a case where I have to help a woman who is currently in default on her mortgage and she will likely go into foreclosure. Her subprime fixed rate loan is from one of the three major lenders.
The lender thinks she is 5 payments behind but she is really only about 2 or so. I wrote the lender a letter telling them who I was and they sent me a “Customer Account Activity Statement” which details this woman’s payment history.
Wow, is she the *definition* of subprime. Her loan dates back to ‘02 for about $100K, ok, and her monthly payment due on the 1st of every month is supposed to be $885.79. Got that? Every 1st of the month she’s supposed to pay the same amount of money - $855.79.
The lender only sent me records dating from ‘04 and boy is her payment schedule screwy. She is late nearly month and when she does pay, she sends only whatever she can afford. She doesn’t send what the statement says, she just sends a money order for a seemingly random amount. Of course, the lender misapplied a few of he money orders and that is where her problem lies and it is what i have to fix.
For example, below is her payments in ‘06 according to the lender:
01/19/06: $1,842.44
02/10/06: $855.79
03/16/06: $855.79
04/01/06: $1,809.00
07/17/06: $922.00
10/17/06: $950.00
11/09/06: $940.00
12/18/06: $957.00
01/11/07: $855.79
Her payment habits are what made her a subprime candidate. This type “I can only pay this much” crap. The lender somehow thought that 6.75% fixed interest was enough to satisfy their risk on this loan. 6.75% - what a joke!!! They should be charging her 10%+! Better yet, she should never have been given this loan. What’s even scarier is that this loan dates from ‘02 and it is a fixed rate!
I’ll save her home for her and get her caught up. I’ll get the lender to correctly apply her payments and I”ll remit her missing two payments on her behalf to insure that they get applied correctly.
Has anyone else seen/heard anything about this situation, where the borrower just pays whatever, whenever, and is never ontime???
(better late then never right?)
are you superman or “saving” people w taxpayer money ?
No, she gets legal benefits as a benefit of her membership in a union. She recently got a NOD and she can’t seem to get the servicer to apply her missing payments (her money orders were lost in the mail). Because she gets free legal benefits, she gets to see a lawyer. i.e. ME.
My job is to help her as much as I can. Obviously, I’m being as vague as possible about stuff here because I don’t want anyone to identify the information I’ve posted here.
that should be the true definition of subprime, someone that has the capacity to repay the loan, they’re just too busy, too important, too overworked, etc. to pay their bills on time. you can look at their credit report and it reads like an x-ray, spotty everywhere. where the subprime cart went off the track is when they decided to lend to those that lacked capacity to pay the money back (ie: stated income), a big mistake, imho.
I should have taken photos for the HBB Photo Gallery, but I was running late to a party and I do have my priorities
Anyway, saw these 2 gems on “For Sale” signs yesterday…
1) 52 free pizzas with purchase of this home
2) Buy this house and I’ll buy yours - with cash!
Both of these were actual realtors, not FSBO. Bizzare.
I guess they anticipate that you won’t have any money for food left. Hmmm. They are good people.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aMEfUsHA556w&refer=home
Caroline is just great! The best Bloomberg has to offer.
With all the loose credit, government debt and printing of money could the housing prices just be reflecting the actual value of our dollar?
The inflation rate that we are being given does not nearly reflective the decrease of what we can buy with our dollar. So is housing going up or is it just our dollar shrinking?
Government statistics can be spun in any manner to make the general public believe what they want.
“With all the loose credit, government debt and printing of money could the housing prices just be reflecting the actual value of our dollar?”
They could be if house prices were not 10X incomes.
true for average joe sixpack , but not for the big whigs that have the control…. do they really care about joe sixpack?
An asset is only worth what people can afford to pay. If peoples paychecks arent keeping up with inflation than neither should the asset. Its all due to leverage.
I’m not exactly becoming bullish on Dollar, but I think a lot of central banks are really happy that all the focus is on t e Dollar. That means they call all print money, and the value of money will drop world wide.
Shadow Government Statistics have been updated:
http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/data
M3 grows at 11% PA, pretty much matches the real CPI of 10%.
…but wait, plasma-TVs and computer power are getting cheaper, so we have no inflation.
thanks for the link
I am sure we will see a flood of these vids-types in 2007 posted on youtube. This is low quality….but just send in a “dollar or whatever” to stop the foreclosure…after all she is a single mom, thus she is more deserving than others.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=Q5EJOAxHe3Q
Anyone who is facing forclosure probably had no business buying their house in the first place, I don’t care what their situation is. They’re better off letting the forclosure happen and sticking with something more affordable based on their income.
Realty times has found out about problems in sub-prime lending:
http://realtytimes.com/rtcpages/20070219_subprimemelt.htm
“Subprime Mortgage Meltown Could Squeeze Some Credit-impaired Home Buyers”
“Credit-impared home buyers”! How wonderfully polically correct. Or should we call them “financially challenged”?
“Bartender, I seem to have become credit-impared. Could I have a free beer please?”
Does anyone know where one can find the municipal police salaries on the net?
Cash back fraud?
I decided to do a quick google search of craigslist.com to see if I could find any blatant cash back type fraud being advertised. The results are pretty blatant, and amazing…
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&as_qdr=all&q=%22cash+back%22+site%3Acraigslist.com
Seems like the realtors have bought into the false premise that “the housing market always goes up !” more than most people. An absolute squalid dump in “the upscale” Kensington neighborhood of San Diego just sold for around $500-550k. The buyer is a realtor who plans on scraping all the dog-poop off the floor, slapping some fresh paint on the walls and then renting it out for an unrealistically high $2500 a month. My quick-and-dirty calculations tell me that even with 20% down she’ll be over $2000/month in the hole. How can somebody delude themselves into thinking this is a good fiscal move…especially one of our very bright real-estate professionals ?
I don’t know how depreciation works in this case, but if the realtor-landlord were looking at the usual mortgage-expense deduction the deal does in fact pencil out, assuming 100% occupancy, minimal maintenance costs, and real appreciation over the 5-10 year period.
Nightmare scenario from FSU:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/mchugh/2007/0217.html
“The timing is interesting as a sharp drop in Bonds here will unnerve stock and housing markets over the next several months. This should trigger the coming recession, which will in turn force the Fed to buy Bonds with the same fervor it sends its regulators in after bankers. Spending a ton of freshly printed electronic money, the Fed must drive interest rates much lower in the second half of 2007. That flood of fresh money during the coming recession will devalue the Dollar sharply.
The technical landscape pointing toward a 2007 recession is supported by the economic reports. Here’s the news from this week – mostly dour:
Industrial Output fell 0.5 percent in January, with the manufacturing component dropping 0.7 percent, mostly related to motor vehicles, according to the Federal Reserve. This was the largest decline in 16 months. The Philadelphia Fed reported that its Business Activity Index for the Mid-Atlantic region fell to 0.6 in February from 8.3 in January.
Housing Starts plunged 14.3 percent in January, to the slowest pace in over 9 years, since 1997, according to the Census Bureau. This was 22 percent below the 2006 monthly average. New Single Family Home Permits fell 4.0 percent in January, a six year low. This is just the building side. We have 1.5 million adjustable rate mortgages scheduled to reset significantly higher this year; foreclosures are up; and prices (loan collateral) are down.
According to the National Association of Realtors, Housing Prices fell 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter 2006 versus the same period in 2005, the largest year over year decline ever. Second homes are getting killed, many vacation areas showing price drops of 20 percent.
Mortgage applications rose 1.5 percent in the latest reporting week. But those are apps. Let’s see how many loans close given the sub-prime lender problems and declining prices (appraisal values). There’s only one way out of this mess: sacrificing the dollar. A planned hyperinflation of the money supply and devaluation of the dollar will assure that markets rise in nominal prices, a necessity given the debt crisis that is looming. There is simply an imbalance between income and debt service, and if asset valuations are permitted to decline, the result will be economic chaos. There is no choice here for the Fed. They must print and get that money into as many consumer hands as possible. They must lift market prices higher — buy bonds (and ergo stimulate housing) and stocks; and raise cash for increased entitlement payments — put cash directly into the hands of consumers. The Fed must pretend to be inflation vigilant, while doubling the money supply. This is a magician’s act, a house of cards. Precious metals should benefit.
The Labor Department reported that, using their unique methods of counting, U.S. Producer Prices as measured by their Producer Price Index (PPI) actually declined, depressed, down 0.6 percent in January. This is part of the delusion of inflation restraint while money supply is quietly hyper-inflated. Fresh printed money gets into the system by the Fed buying anything, taking possession of anything, in exchange for that fresh new money. If the Fed buys bonds, the bond market catches a bid and rallies, and money gets into the economy. Anyone holding bonds feels wealthier and can use the higher priced portfolio to qualify to borrow more money (also causing the money supply to grow). They can take that loan and buy real estate, thereby putting pressure on housing prices to rise, alleviating the housing crunch. If the Fed buys stocks through the Working Group, the Plunge Protection Team, same result. Equity markets rise on the fresh liquidity injection, catching the PPT’s bid, creating a wealth effect for shareholders. Investors can use their higher priced stocks to borrow to buy real estate, or more stock, or diamonds, or art, or whatever. The Dollar is down the john in this scenario, so the Fed must keep their printing and buying activities a secret, pretend they are vigilant about inflation via garbage numbers reported by Labor, through toothless jawboning at congressional sessions, etc… Why it has gotten so bad that hardly anyone from congress showed up at the Bernanke meetings this week. They must figure, what is the point? Anything spoken is pure bologna anyway. The real action is in the secret PPT meetings and M-3 figures.”
Check this out from MortgageNewsDaily:
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/2192007_Existing_Home_Sales_2006.asp
The article ends with this statement:
“NAR stands to lose credibility unless it also loses its Pollyanna approach to reporting the data for which it pretty much holds a monopoly. Realtors and by extension their customers and clients, rely on this information to price homes and set business strategy. It is time that NAR bites the bullet and get real about the full measure of statistics it collects. It is a public service to do so and even the most transparent of cover-ups eventually has drastic consequences.”
Wow.
From the article………
“David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist stated that the fourth quarter would be the bottom for the current housing cycle. “This information confirms 2006 was the year of contraction, and hopefully the fourth quarter was the bottom of this current business cycle. Home sales are leveling at historically high levels, and examination of data within the quarter shows home prices stabilizing toward the end. When we get the figures for the spring I expect to see a discernable improvement in both sales and prices.”
Will anyone take D L to task when this is proved wrong?
“Will anyone take D L to task when this is proved wrong?”
How many false ‘bottoms’ has DL already called, for that matter? I hope someone is keeping score…
I’m thinking we’re getting close to a meltdown at CFC. My reasoning. recent report put their carried subprime portfolio at 40% of total. They are #1 in total revenue, guess who’s second? NEW. They are also just behind NEW on the list of worst debt/revenue ratio.
Any thoughts?
http://boards.msn.com/RealEstateboards/thread.aspx?ThreadID=160924&BoardsParam=Page%3D1
Alot of these people are happier renting again. Interesting stories.
Here’s a link for GetStucco,
“Cargo Cult Science”, by Richard Feynman
http://wwwcdf.pd.infn.it/~loreti/science.html