“A Lot Less Pressure From California”
A report from the Idaho Statesman. “An Idaho Statesman analysis shows the biggest group, 43 percent, of newcomers to Ada and Canyon counties from 2000 to 2005 hail from other places in Idaho. Just 11 percent came from California, and as many people came to the Treasure Valley from Phoenix, Seattle, Portland and Salt Lake City as came from Los Angeles or San Diego.”
“The data comes from the Charlotte (N.C.) Observer, which collected IRS tax-return address changes from 2000 to 2005. While a healthy chunk of the newcomers do hail from California, many are rural Idahoans drawn to Boise’s metro area by plentiful, better-paying jobs.”
“While many rural Idahoans move to the Treasure Valley for jobs and an urban lifestyle, many out-of-staters are escaping big-city headaches. A major attraction is quality of life at an affordable price.”
“But migration is changing the way long-timers live, too. From 2000 to 2005, the median home price in Maricopa County, Ariz., (the Phoenix metro area) jumped from $129,200 to $212,700. In the same period, Ada County also saw median prices increase, from $124,700 to $167,500.”
“That was still a bargain by San Diego prices, where the 2005 median home price was $552,000.”
“Pamela Hoevel, her husband, Darren, and her parents wanted out of the Bay Area in California. The family had a checklist: high-tech job opportunities, good schools, strong business climate, temperate weather, outdoor activities and affordable living.”
“The Boise area fit like the last piece in a puzzle, Hoevel said. The family moved here in August. ‘The people in California are always stressed because of the high cost of living,’ Hoevel said. ‘We came here, and we could afford a house,.”
“The Hoevels bought a home in Star, where Darren can telecommute to his job at an Internet company. Pamela’s parents, David and Lauren Ianniciello, settled in Eagle.”
“A couple weeks ago, Bob Thompson and his wife migrated to Idaho from Park City, Utah. Thompson, 52, said he was happy to escape growth in Utah caused by ‘California flight.’”
“‘Park City is getting insane. When I moved there, it was a two-lane road,’ Thompson said.”
“He compares Boise’s traffic to backed up rows of cars at Las Vegas intersections but said he likes the friendly neighborhoods and the variety of outdoor activities. The couple is hoping to buy or build a home, and Thompson, a carpenter, plans on getting in on the Treasure Valley’s construction boom.”
The Register Guard from Oregon. “Chalk it up to January’s nasty weather or a general slowing of the real estate market. Whatever the reason, home sales in Lane County started out the year at a relatively leisurely pace, according to figures released Tuesday by the Residential MLS in Portland.”
“Although the number of new listings countywide was up 9 percent over January 2006, the number of sale agreements dipped 3 percent for the same period.”
“One of the greatest indicators of the slowing pace of the housing market is the time it takes to sell a house. A year ago, houses sold in 55 days, on average. At that rate, with 558 new listings to choose from on top of about 850 already on the market last month, the number of houses available for sale would last about 5.6 months, longer than any time during at least the past two years.”
“One difference from a year ago at the high end of the market ‘is a lot less pressure from California,’ said Jackie Hawks, broker/buyer specialist in Eugene. ‘I think their market has softened a bit.’”
“Real estate trends in Douglas County were similar to Lane County in January, with new listings up about 3 percent. However, pending sales took a sharper dive, down 24 percent, and the number of closed sales dropped 15 percent from January the year before.”
“The inventory of housing available in Douglas County would last as long as a year, assuming a perfect match-up of buyers and sellers for properties already on the market. That’s nearly double the 6.5-month inventory of January 2006 in Douglas County.”
The Oregonian. “As the all-important spring selling season approaches, Portland’s housing market continues to show signs of slackening. Home prices have essentially been flat since late spring, and have even come down a hair since their peak in June, when the market was gyrating upward and the area’s median price hit $280,000.”
“New listings were up 19 percent in January compared with the same period last year, and closed sales were down 9 percent. Consequently, the inventory of homes for sale in the region hit a 6.2 month supply in January, its highest level in five years.”
“‘It’s the thing we expected, transitioning from a seller’s to a buyer’s market,’ said Jerry Johnson of a Portland economic consulting firm. ‘If this is as bad as it gets, we can live with that.’”
“Johnson cautions, ‘There’s no way we’re replicating the first six months of 2006 in the first six months of 2007.’”
“Don’t tell that to area home builders and real estate agents, who are still sounding a boosterish note as they head into home sales prime time. Many of them blame the media for spreading doom-and-gloom stories that have scared away buyers.”
“‘In reality, the market is still incredible — it’s not like we’re Las Vegas or Arizona, where we can continue to build into the desert,’ said Rob Young, a broker in Clackamas County.”
“Yet RMLS statistics and anecdotal accounts suggest that Clackamas County, specifically Happy Valley, is one of the weakest pockets in the metro area precisely because there is so much new building going on.”
“Johnson, the consultant, says he hopes area home builders will show some restraint in coming months and let the market catch up with supply.”
“There are already signs that they have their ears to the ground. The number of building permits issued for privately-owned housing units in the Portland area was 663 in December, down more than 50 percent from December 2005 and substantially less than any month in the last two years, according to census figures.”
‘home sales in Lane County started out the year at a relatively leisurely pace..with 558 new listings to choose from on top of about 850 already on the market last month.’
‘The inventory of housing available in Douglas County would last as long as a year, assuming a perfect match-up of buyers and sellers for properties already on the market. That’s nearly double the 6.5-month inventory of January 2006.’
Uh-ohh…….
Here is MASS, I think the days on market is somewhere in the 200 - 250 day neighborhood (on average). I think it is skewed downward by houses that have been listed-withdrawn/expired/cancelled - relisted. Also, the truly new listings are dragging down the average (and they are going nowhere fast, unless they are priced really, really well). I am seeing houses that have been listed literally for years now. Sure, ok, maybe the original listing prices on the ones listed for years were totally unrealistic, but that doesn’t change the fact that there are some houses out there that some sellers has been trying to unload for a l-o-n-g time now. I see houses with price reductions of 10, 15, 20 percent still not selling. That tells me the pool of GFs has been mostly pumped dry.
Another trend that I am seeing is the “resale” of houses that were only purchased in the last two years or so. I don’t know about other parts of the country, where the reported time that someone stays in a house is around 5 -7 years, but I can tell you that here in MASS, people tend to stay put for decades (or at least they did more than five years ago).
I think anyway it’s sliced, things are very slow and not about to rebound in the near term (3 - 6 months, anyway). I wouldn’t try to speculate past that, but I suspect it will be at least 12 months before ANY sign of improvement becomes visible. Sure there will be some sales, it would be foolish to think all sales will stop, but I don’t see enough to support the local REMIC people.
Pen,
I’ve had six out of some 40 homes in my immediate Boston neighborhood for sale for from six months to over a year. The only two that have sold were where the owner, literally, DIED and those were the ones that sold in less than a year. One has been reduced in price; 589>489 and still isn’t going anywhere and it has been empty for a YEAR.
Sure, every house is a different story, every seller has different needs but I have to believe the homes that are not selling have the fundamental problem of very few buyers remaining. I’d bet they aren’t getting any bids much less “insulting” bids. This factor, this horrific illiquidity of a major financial burden, is the one factor very few sellers have ever had to face. The silence must be terrifying.
So far they are in denial and are probably sustained by the occaisional “goldilocks” news report. But I think the day of reckoning is arriving soon. Maybe mid-March or April. When sales volumes don’t improve and even more inventory piles into the market. That’s when denial will morph into a recognition of reality; you need to find a buyer, period.
Price? Whatever the market will bear.
reads as though we are viewing this through the same looking glass…
And here I thought my perspective was “unique”!
Actually, I come to blogs like this to make sure I’m not as totally nuts (sometimes about somethings) as I’m sure I seem to SOME people.
I’ve lived in Boston since 1972 and owned since 1984 the same house. Seen a lot of stuff (including the fabulous 90s bust) and think I’ve digested it pretty well. I don’t have an agenda. I’m not selling and, while I might invest at some point, I don’t need to inorder to “prove” anything.
I’ve known relative “idiots” who made small fortunes (and later lost them) in the 90s RE reversal. I’ve had friends make killings with properties and some who’ve owned condos and second homes that were underwater, totally unsellable, for decades.
I think I’m pretty well educated about the general market as well as parts of Boston but who knows? Maybe a major factor lurks out there that I can’t see…that nobody can see, that will stem (what I see as) a logical economic outcome from a classic investment bubble. Black swans are possible.
Normally I’m a big optimist. Heck, I’m an optimist even if we go through this nightmare as I forsee it. Capital is being grossly misallocated and, at some point, it has to stop. When it does, we’ll all be better served. But the transition may be a beeotch!
I have a friend in MASS who has been holding two huge mortgages now for over a year. She and her husband built a McMansion/Dream home back in 2005 with the belief that they would sell their home at huge price tag and right away and that it would finance their upsizing. Well, it has been sitting on the market and despite price reductions (from $800,000 down to now $639,000), they can not sell to save their life, but they also were insulted when someone offered $600,000 last summer. Hmmm…that really sucks. I feel bad because she is my friend, but I was saying a few years ago that the market was unsustainable but no one listened to me. She is living paycheck to paycheck now and pining away for the simple life. I think she has learned her lesson about upsizing and wanting more and more and more. But she still needs to sell the damn house. Now, she has both houses on the market hoping to maybe unload everything, that’s how bad it is. They are in a major hole.
The thing I don’t get is that she says that house #1 was assessed at $658,000 recently and so she is convinced that they have now priced it right, but on zillow.com, comparable houses were zestimated much lower, like in the $400,000 range. In fact, her house had a zestimate of $403,000 (the zestimate was based on data before they added a master suite and bathroom, but would that really add $200,000?), which did seem really low even to me who is a huge bear in this market and bubblehead. I think the whole system is out of whack and there is no one left to buy now that only the smart, prudential people are left to buy and they haven’t bought into the whole crazy ARM/I/O mortgages things. I would count myself as one of those skeptics. By the way, this friend of mine’s husband has a friend who is a VP at a mortgage company, let’s call him VPguy, and he told me and my husband two summers ago that we should buy a house for @ $400,000 I/O mortgage. I told him that that didn’t fit our budget (we like to live under our means) and that the prices were unsustainable. HE glared at me and told me that was bullshit - RE won’t go down. Blah, blah… I’m glad I didn’t listen to him.
“I’ve known relative “idiots”
And I’ve known idiot relatives.
jag:
This is what i am experiencing everyday in the JOB MARKET, resume after resume and NOTHING, no answers, no questions, not even a phone call or email saying: “hmmmm very interesting resume”… Just flat out NOTHING
You’re right its damn scary…..I’m sure glad i dont have a house i have to sell. Can you say a swan dive off the George Washington Bridge.
==========================================
I’d bet they aren’t getting any bids much less “insulting” bids. This factor, this horrific illiquidity of a major financial burden, is the one factor very few sellers have ever had to face. The silence must be terrifying.
hang in there, aNYCdj. The employment gods work in mysterious ways…
SAME HERE for about 3 months… nothing nothing nothing
before that people used to call but now its totally blank
I live in the Wilmington area and it seems like here employers are begging for people. Store are hanging “Now Hiring” banners across the front of the stores. Macy’s in Christiana was handing out applications as you walked in the store today. Billboards on I-95 are advertising job openings. Even housing deveolpments are putting up “Help Wanted” signs over their advertising. Obviously it depends on what industry you’re looking at, but here, at least, job seekers seem to have the upper hand.
Thanks JP:
shhhhhhh the last few months i have been selling a 20K song collection of mp3’s on ebay to survive….i am having a very serious time emotionally stuggling with having tokeep taking money out of my IRA to pay bills.
I need money like yesterday for the phone, electric and now my brakes are grinding…..
Full employment, hah!….i had far easier times getting a job when the unemployment rate as over 7%..then today.
Oh to Kaycee:
Same here in NYC retail, jiffy lube, dunkin donuts, but you notice my handle yes i am still a wedding dj and 95% of my jobs are on the weekends, just when all those retail jobs want me to work. They make it clear: no weekends then dont apply here.
Plus Best Buy, Circuit City, Eckerds, CVS, DO NOT want only English speaking people Even Citi Bank is offering sign on bonusues If you speak Hindi Cantonese Mandarin, spanish russian greek hebrew…YES CITIBANK, no English only tellers wanted.
I posted my reume on Craigslist and in one week i got 63 job offers….of course none of them could state the weekly pay since it was ZERO, commission only non jobs
I have an interview tommorow with a news gathering company and of course its no pay,commission only, but i have to get out to the house, and maybe make some contacts.
Not to be an ass, but it’s clear why they want people who speak more than one language.
More “value-add” for the same salary.
Not very surprising in economics terms (but that doesn’t help you.)
Typical on the market time for SoCal is about 230. This is much, much higher than anticipated.
Anything worse, and we are in a full-blow real estate recession. Bulls get great mileage that we haven’t yet crossed the 9 month market (which is housing bust territory). Just wait until we hit 18 months!
Chuck Ponzi
http://www.socalbubble.com
Agreed, at some point the year-over-year numbers are going to look really bad. Say, by June or July, maybe a bit later, but it will happen. Then it will be tough to spin the numbers.
Yes, but spin them they will. There is no use arguing with someone paid by the REIC. No matter how little sense it makes, they will rabidly hold their beliefs.
Makes you sometimes want to just turn off all of the realtors’ messages… but you can’t because it’s too much fun to record for posterity sake.
Chuck Ponzi
http://www.socalbubble.com
Let them spin all they want. As long as I can buy a house five years from now for fifty cents on the dollar, they can whistle Zip-ah-dee-doo-dah out their brown eyes for all I care. Maybe I’ll whistle right along as I write the check.
Enjoyed your Rhode Island vs. Japan discussion on your blog, Chuck
I love the rationalization.
“We’re running out of land!”
Duh… OK, but I’m glad Japan made all of that new land… pity their home prices falling for 15 years because of it.
Chuck
http://www.socalbubble.com
“…the days on market…is skewed downward by houses that have been listed-withdrawn/expired/cancelled - relisted…”
Seems like that’s the case everywhere. That poor flipper Seattle Eric has been playing those games with his flip in Everett. Funny thing, he just changed the mls number today, but left the old one online as well! See for yourself.
http://tinyurl.com/2xax8k
“just changed the mls number today”
too bad the states’ AGs won’t get involved with this. I think the relisting as “NEW” is deceptive.
I am hoping to buy, when prices are right, so I have been watching some properties very closely. I have seen things like changing “street” to “ave”, “road” to “way”, etc., just so the address will look different. Once or twice, while feeling particulary bored, I have even called some brokers on them, only to end the conversation with something like, “oh, I saw that house a year ago” or “did they move that house?, I seem to remember it being on Elm St. not Elm Way”. Yes,it is a waste of my time, but it amuses me.
I’m not above meddling from time to time. I have called a number of realtors on their crap.
I think the relisting as “NEW” is deceptive.
Deceptive of what? It’s still the same house. You’re buying the house, not the listing history.
WTF cares about the listing history. It’s the price, stupid.
yogurt, I see your point, from a buyer’s perspective. How about an economist’s perspective? Many of us here are prospective buyers (sometime), but most would like a clear view of market statistics, which are certainly disguised by unlisting/relisting.
It’s so sad that Seattle Eric is no longer willing to discuss his “passion of Real Estate Investment”. I guess that the passion is just gone…
one of the definitions of passion is “suffering”
Here’s Seattle Slew’s blog:
http://seattlerei.blogspot.com/
It died with the market and took his wallet down with it. Of course, he’ll have no problem selling his flips in the Spring….LOL
He’s raised the troll bridge.
I tried and tried to tell SeattleEric that he was making a huge mistake with all his big plans. He kept deleting my posts and telling me I was a “joker”, etc. I keep checking his blog, no updates in about two months.
“One difference from a year ago at the high end of the market ‘is a lot less pressure from California,’ said Jackie Hawks, broker/buyer specialist in Eugene. ‘I think their market has softened a bit.’”
Yes — a bit — as in after a seven-year binge of home-equity-cashout-financed luxury consumption spending, they can no longer sell their homes for enough to pay off their mortgages plus raise a mammoth-sized downpayment to outbid the Oregon locals. And then there is also the little problem that zero-downpayment loans are suddenly under scrutiny…
I may have shared this story before, but I’ll do so again:
I moved to Douglas County over a year ago desperately trying to escape the ridiculously unbelievably overpriced real estate on the Big Island of Hawaii…its fun and all, but when it was time to settle down and focus on home life and kids….couldn’t even touch a 50 yr old termite ridden shack for less than 300K, I’m talking about an area with the economy the size of 2000 people TOTAL…and those prices are laughable
So off to my wifes birth place, Douglas County Oregon, Roseburg, Lumber Capital of The USA…. And to my shock, the prices of homes were so outrageous here that I just had to wait, and wait, and wait…
Last week, I closed on my very first home. It was expensive to me, 150k, but for a 4/2 1600 craftsman, I’m not so sure I could have purchased one at that price, in many locations. It was listed for nine months, started at 199k, and languished, I mean not even a looky-loo at the place…..
Open houses, nobody showed up. Anyway, its sits on the market, then goes off the listing, and I waited for two months before approaching her. And she was eager to sell. In retrospect, I think I overpaid by at least 10k, but that’s not my point…
My point is the neighbor, just listed his house, similar design, with the old agent at, get ready, 225k….never gonna happen, not in this market.
Sounds like you paid a bit too much for Roseburg, but if you like the place and plan on staying, you should be ok. Believe it or not, Douglas county has been largely overlooked by the California equity locust, because it is considered depressed and uncool. I actually like Roseburg in a way, an old-fashioned Oregon town that has not yet been ruined. Few jobs, but a nice place to raise a family, I think.
As I mentioned in the other thread, here in Tualatin south of Portland, prices are down several percent from asking on the things that are selling. There has been a bit of a pickup in sales in January but the prices were soft. Then there are some houses that are just sitting. Also seeing some pendings go back to on the market. You didn’t see this stuff in the last couple of years.
Looking forward to seeing what happens to the inventory in the next couple of months.
–
“Johnson, the consultant, says he hopes area home builders will show some restraint in coming months and let the market catch up with supply.”
None of the bubble drivers will restrain themselves until they are forced to.
Jas
Are you saying ’someone’ should forcibly take the punchbowl away? How un-American of you.
The way I read it was that the bubble drivers (in this case builders) will be forced to restrain themselves when market conditions cause BK’s, foreclosures, unemployment, and other nasties. No Gov. (or Fed) intervention required to have this punchbowl taken away. Just sheer bubble exhaustion and a credit crunch is all.
Jas Jain will be highly flattered by the adjective “un-American”
Good thing I wasn’t drinking from my cup of coffee when I read that.
“Just 11 percent came from California, and as many people came…
… as came from Los Angeles or San Diego.”
But it’s so much fun to blame the growth problems and other woes on the Californians. Shucks.
11% is huge. When the Texas bust happened in the 80’s, the outmigration was only 1.7%, according to the RTC. But even that amount sucked a massive amount of RE demand out of the economy. So 11% inflow would blow the doors off, especially given the rural Idaho folks pouring in.
Plus, who bid the prices up, the local hicks? The Idaho Statesman has run story after story on the California flippers buying everything they could get their hands on, even sight unseen. And recall that many were absentee owners; those won’r be measured by income tax returns.
I have breakfast last week with a girl from Idaho. The thing she hated the most of the Californians was their condescending attitude toward the long-time residnets. And it’s pretty obvious who they are.
Here in Bellingham, they move in and build their huge trophy homes with their California gains. So the rest of us look at their gaudy tacky McMansions on the hill they scalped of 100+y.o. firs and cedars to get more sun (yeah right) and a 270 degree view of the mountains and islands. Where the homes used to be built to blend into the surrounding environment, it now looks like friggin New Jersey.
I’d better stop typing before I get more P.O.’d.
I had a visit from an old friend from Bellingham last weekend. He seems to think that the 2010 olymics are going to keep prices strong in the area. Would you agree?
I hope it increases, as we purchased a house this past summer. But I don’t really care. It’s a home primarily, and an investment as a distant second.
But here’s what I posted on another site:
Up north here in Whatcom County it seems to be a microcosm of what’s going on nationally with excess supply, etc. But we all know it’s different up here because of the Olympics in 2010 in Vancouver and the low cost of housing versus Seattle, and ya know with the muddy beaches of Birch Bay being touted as the next Santa Barbara (that one really made me laugh).
At any rate, you I notice on my ride to work, which takes me many different routes, many more homes on the market. Last summer when we bought (yeah, almost at the peak) the houses for sale were few and far between. And now I see For Sale signs sprouting like mushrooms after a spring rain. And I live in the low-priced side of town. I know the mid- and high-priced sector of the market should be weak, but not the ‘starter’ homes. (I love the term ‘starter home.’ My wife and I both are forty with college degrees and we moved into a 1929 home built new for a coal miner. But 1,000sqft is enough for us.)
Same thing can be said of Ferndale, Lynden…everywhere both in the city of Bellingham and outside there is an overabundance of homes for sale. And more being built all the time. I work with a bunch of builders and things are not slowing at all up here. And I won’t even start on the condos
The Olympics is a two-week event, and it’s not even the good Olympics. I think any Olympic premium has long ago been factored into the gigantic price gains in the last few years.
B’hamster,
Cool that you are good with 1000 sf. So few people can just say enough is enough.
I can almost forgive you for selfishly not procreating now.
Bellingham is a great town, hope it stays that way.
He seems to think that the 2010 olympics are going to keep prices strong in the area. Would you agree?
BWA HA HA HA! That about caps it. I thought the Olympic mania was crazy enough in Vancouver, but Bellingham?. The final insanity.
What on earth has a 2 week sporting event 50/100 miles away, across an international border, got to do with RE prices?
Oh BTW hamster, if everyone in Bellingham is so upset about the ugly homes the Californians are building, why doesn’t the city implement design controls? Maybe because a lot of local people are making money building them? Always easier to blame the outsiders, isn’t it?
bold off
I can almost forgive you for selfishly not procreating now.
To each his own. I can’t think of a more selfish act than procreating.
It also doesn’t help that Forbes and Money magazine keep rattling off ” the best places to live in America” and place almost all Southeastern and Midwestern cities at the top. They’re the best places to live mostly because they aren’t insanely overpriced like all the other megatropolis areas.
In my parent’s neck of the woods in NC, all they’re building are Mcmansions- HUGE 3 story brick deals with 3 car garages. People from NY, CA, etc etc come in and almost trip over themselves over HOW CHEAP it is. whoa!- 400k for a huge house. Well, when you consider that the average citizen there makes 25k a year, 400k might as well be 700k. Most of these houses are built in my opinion for out of staters that haven’t a clue to what the true cost of housing is there. The fact is that you can get an older suburban home for 100k… or less in these parts. But again- they build these monsterous houses for people who’ve come from overpriced states who are conditioned and brainwashed into thinking ALL homes must cost an arm and a leg.
I’m a CA native, and even I can’t stand these smug overleveraged “debt is wealth” locust assholes.
I hear you. We’re always getting listed on the “Best places to…” and this has a horrible effect of bringing people in that want all the conveniences of the place they left after they trashed it, including strip malls, snout houses, etc.
When I lived in the Sierras, they used to refer to the “224 houses”: two people using the house two weeks out of the year, but still requiring four thousand square feet of space. Ridiculous.
B-hamster,
Sure, you could just stay in a hotel or B&B for a fraction of the carrying costs, but with a 224, you’re “earning equity” on an “investment”. Clearly, you haven’t learned FB Mental Accounting.
But in Californian’s defense( I live in California but am from the South) I don’t blame them for flooding out of here. Perhaps my perspective is different since I am not a native, but the situation here is like a war zone. Lots and lots of really frusturated people who are stuck in the middle of not being able to afford no matter how much they might make.
I can see where people who have been living like that for years would suddenly find somewhere-anywhere else- that is widely affordable appealing. The problem is that most of these refugees seem to do very little research about the areas they move to. Many also want people in other states to act like Californians- Sushi joints and all-. If you go into a new state with this attitude, I predict many of these people will soon move right back to where they came from.
Since I am moving out of California within the next 3 months with no equity (no house for me) but am sitting on a good chunk of cash what kind of locust would I be?
I would call myself a cash cow, but I don’t want to be milked by all those unscrupulous Pennsylvania realtors. :0
For the record, most of the people you meet that are “Californians” are not in fact from California. They annoyed us when they moved here and we are happy to see them go.
“Since I am moving out of California within the next 3 months with no equity (no house for me) but am sitting on a good chunk of cash what kind of locust would I be?”
Sounds like you did what I’m doing: just save a ton of cash. I’m not sure what our future plans will be, but for some reason I seem to be one of the few people out here who sees the incredible financial logic in renting cheap ( rent here is about the same as it is in NC) and just simply saving money. Most seem to want to jump right into a house and blow most of their income on it… for what? So that they can wager that the house will be their saving grace in the form of equity?
Seems to me that the lack of value increases these days makes saving cash a much wiser investment.
and as far as annoying people not from California moving in, well you’d better count on people leaving- most of your middle class and young families that is- as a sea of low skilled immigrants replaces us plus some. Not exactly what you really want for a healthy economy, so be careful what you wish for.
Yeah, I’m an import to California. You don’t see many engineering jobs up in the midwest. I can’t afford to buy here. No way. What I find amusing is that local school districts are “surprised” when enrollment is down and they lose major $$$ from the state because of this.
Hey, I can sympathize. I found this awesome little old farmhouse on acreage, on the Kitsap Peninsula. It was a total fixer, but EXACTLY what I was looking for. It was only 2 bedrooms, and maybe 1000 sf max (only because of the dormer upstairs). It was densely wooded with 7-10 acres of old fir, cedar, hemlock, and maple. I had been trying to find the owners to see if they wanted to sell it, but there were no tax records for it (very strange), so my realtor was dealing with the county. I had driven by the place on countless occasions to admire it. On the last visit, I drove down the street and was AGHAST by what I found. Not only was there no more house, but every single tree was gone! They didn’t even leave a few to park it out! Made me want to puke. I never went by that place again.
yeah that sounds (or sounded) wonderful. I’ll never understand those people.
But if you see a lot here advertised as “sunny,” all that means is that it’s been recently cleared of century-old pines. And this is in Sudden Valley where there are not even views to be had. I give up.
I see this crap in Portland too. I have a friend that lives in Lake Oswego (if you want to find a ton of Californians, this is the place).
His neighbors are from San Francisco. Bought in 2005. Still haven’t moved in, but paid $2.5M and are planning to tear it down!! It’s around 3500 sf and it’s been there since the 20’s. How can people have such shallow lives?
–
“The thing she hated the most of the Californians was their condescending attitude toward the long-time residnets. And it’s pretty obvious who they are.”
Unearned success does that to people. Silly.con Valley is the epitome of this “condescending attitude.” People’s views of everything gets distorted when they have lived inside bubbles for long.
Jas
these uncouth nouveau “faux-riche” types burn my a$$. If they don’t like “rustic” people, then do not move to Idaho. They will truly contaminate anything they touch. It WILL look like NJ soon. Too bad….
“…these uncouth nouveau “faux-riche” types burn my a$$…”
I couldn’t agree with you more. These ostentatious scumbags will never be considered “salt of the earth”.
I live in California. Can you imagine what it’s like to be surrounded by pricks? These people walked on the bubble like Christ walked on water.
Hahaha… great metaphor.
It’s the same thing here in Santa Barbara.
When I grew up, the hills behind my parent’s house (with A+ views of the city, harbor, ocean, I mean world-class views) had homes that blended right into the hillside. Not too big even. You almost couldn’t notice them (and they had nice backyards to enjoy). Now about half of those houses were scraped off the hill, replaced with homes built right to the setbacks. “In your face” architecture, I heard someone call it.
You can take the boy out of L.A., but you can’t take the L.A. out of the boy.
My Aunt owned a small 1400 sq ft home on Mission Ridge with perhaps one of the best views in all of Santa Barbara. The people who bought her quaint little house tore it down a built a huge gaudy thing. They were retirees from L.A. That was back in 2001.
Sweet JeS#$ that pi$$e$ me off!. You would think a retired couple would be happy with a 1400 sf view home in Santa Barbara. Why to retirees build these monstrosities at the end of their lives only to ensure that only folks as obnoxious as themselves can ever buy afterwards.
Its hard to say who is a Californian or Native born anymore. Many come to California and call themself that after 6 months than leave. Someone here is mentioned CA only has 33% natives. ??? FWIW, I can say most CA natives are not the greedy hounds you even see here… I would say most are from East Coast where upscale neighborhoods and family line have some meaning to them. Its all nonsense to natives.
Southern California and Northern California are pretty different. A lot of people in Northern California who have been here a while try to not show off their money.
And drive proudly through town in their (insert high priced German sedan here) or H2.
Yes,
I would think 11% locusts would jack up prices terribly. I would like to see similar analyses of statistics for S. Oregon. I bet we are 10-20% overall and 50% + for Ashland. It really and truly sucks.
I see a lot of equity wealth running around town, but I do have to admit many of the retiring Californians do give generously of their time,etc. here. They support school bonds even as they are closing the schools!! A friend recently told me that Ashland gets the “Prius” Californians, but Bend, OR gets the “Hummer” contingent. I guess I shouldn’t complain..
Ben,
I agree. 11% coming from CA is significant. I can’t wait to see data on the percentage that left CA between 2005 to 2006.
Has anyone checked city-data.com lately? The CA forums are littered with posts from people leaving and looking for anything reasonable.
“And recall that many were absentee owners; those won’r be measured by income tax returns. ”
It just so happens that I find myself in Boise this week for work and you are 100% correct. When talking to my clients about the HUGE growth here since 1998, they all roll their eyes while complaining about investors buying up houses sight unseen.
“‘Park City is getting insane. When I moved there, it was a two-lane road,’ Thompson said.”
“He compares Boise’s traffic to backed up rows of cars at Las Vegas intersections but said he likes the friendly neighborhoods and the variety of outdoor activities. The couple is hoping to buy or build a home, and Thompson, a carpenter, plans on getting in on the Treasure Valley’s construction boom.”
Wash, Rinse, Repeat…
I’m not knocking Boise, never been there, probably never will…BUT…isn’t Boise one of those places that people refer to when trying to exaggerate distance or the ‘boondocks?
Lived in Boise 14 years. You get the feeling you are on an island after awhile. There is civilzation and then scrub for 100’s of miles. Nice medium sized city though.
I left just as the Californicating SDCIA investor types were discovering it en masse. Went back last weekend for a visit and traffic is terrible, streets are torn up and everything seems to be for sale. “Call some place paradise - kiss it goodbye!”.
It is a shame what they’ve done to Park City, it use to be a nice town. Then the Sundance Festival came and now its nothing but identical condos, huge homes and traffic. I can’t wait until until things crash here.
I have a client that does business with a company that recently relocated to Park City. They are late filling all of his orders this year because they can’t find any workers that can afford to live out there.
Yeah, guy I know from L.A., a mtg broker to the rich, set up shop in Park City recently. “Business has never been better” is the mantra. See’s no end to the party. Nice guy, but I’d be happy to hear if that market tanks! >:-)
“The couple is hoping to buy or build a home, and Bob Thompson, a carpenter,
–plans on getting in on the Treasure Valley’s construction boom.”
- I hope that Bob has a ‘Plan B’.
“…and Bob Thompson, a carpenter, –plans on getting in on the Treasure Valley’s construction boom.”
This guy must be blind drunk every day. How else can you justify believing in something so stupid? I saw a similar quote the other day on the RenoRealtyBlog from some contractor in Reno. He is talking about building a few spec homes in Somersett. You know, the same place where there are already short sales, foreclosures, and where all of the big builders are slashing prices. Unreal.
Bantering, you are forgetting the market is supposed to recover this Spring. The head of the Reno/Sparks Realtors Association said so, thanks to accessible easy money. All the more reason to build, build, build!! Easy money for everyone!!
“Wilson went on to say that he anticipates we will see a recovery in the spring. Interest rates remain low nationwide, and money continues to be fairly easy to access through loans. “That coupled with the fact that Reno continues to be a desireable place to live should help us bring sales back up,” Wilson said.
http://www.ktvn.com/Global/story.asp?S=6113717
yeah, it’s in the bag!
Yeah, lol, recover. Aren’t those Reno shills great? Their whole platform is based upon hopes and dreams, nevermind fundamentals. I unloaded on a few of these imbeciles on the RGJ blog a while ago. Funny thing, they haven’t been so loud lately. Of course, with a more than 15% price drop in 2006, they’re probably shaking in their shoes.
Interesting converastion last night in Las Vegas: homeowners freely admitted that prices are FALLING, and that for a newcomer, renting at $1200/mo makes a lot more sense than buying $400K POS. duh.
I have a friend that is a CEO for a construction company in Boise. He took his family from the Bay Area (SF) to the Boise Suburbs. I spoke with him this last Saturday and he was explaining to me that the housing market is in the tank! He is looking to get back in to Auditing, doesn’t think the company will be around too much longer. There is no boom what so ever in Boise, at least not anymore.
My parents live next door to a carpenter. He and family were full speed ahead with the home improvements until about a year ago. Then my folks noticed that projects would start and never finish.
Case in point: The neighbors got the brilliant idea to bust up the back porch and expand it. In came the jackhammers! Lots of noise! But the jackhammer crew didn’t take the porch rubble away. And many months later, it’s still sitting there.
Speaking of just sitting there, these neighbors also have one of those BIG construction site dumpsters sitting in their driveway. And, you guessed it, it’s been sitting there for many months, making the whole neighborhood look bad.
In short, my folks have a front row seat at the end of the housing bubble. I’m going to have to tell them to watch for that hissing sound.
They should invite Neil over. He’s got popcorn!
I hope its an invite to the parents and not the “house of rubble” next door.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Maybe you could go over to your parents’ neighbors and salvage a piece of the rubble as a souvenir, you know like people did with the Berlin Wall.
“There’s no way we’re replicating the first six months of 2006 in the first six months of 2007.”
He’s right, 2007 will be the Hindenburg’s final moments compared to last year.
I hope you’re right. Many of us posters are getting pretty repetitive as we wait and wait and wait. Even well-informed characters like GetStucco are getting stucko in their same same same tirades. (me too)
One thing to note about the Portland metro area is due to the convoluted urban growth boundary, people who worked in parts of the metro where there was a lot of job growth (i.e. Hillsboro, where Intel put in a lot of mfg capacity) couldn’t afford homes near the jobs because land near Hillsboro has been completely off limits to development. I sold my house in the eastern part of Vancouver, WA three years ago to a couple where the husband worked in Hillsboro. So he was looking at a 1.5 hr commute across two rivers and through downtown Portland to be able to afford a 2,000 sq ft home on a .20 acre lot. (I moved to SLC, UT and made a hefty profit on the sale). My point is that once prices start to come down in the areas close to the jobs, the outer reaches of the Portland metro will probably see quicker price drops as people seek to reduce their cost of commute.
“…he was looking at a 1.5 hr commute across two rivers and through downtown Portland to be able to afford a 2,000 sq ft home on a .20 acre lot…”
That’s completely nuts. Is the desire to buy a house that great? Who are these people anyway? I’m no stranger to driving long distances for work, but that’s because the sites are ever-changing. I would never make the decision to intentionally live that far away.
You don’t HAVE to live that far away. These people are CHOOSING to live that far away because they’d rather have the big house than a short commute.
Most of the people that work at the Hillsboro site live near there. I live in downtown Portland, which is only a 20min drive. Prices in Hillsboro or neighboring Beaverton are high, but that has more to do with the housing bubble than the urban growth boundary…
A friend of mine works for a large construction company and he says, for them, new construction is dead in Oregon. They’re only keeping in business by doing reno work, fixing mistakes made by other builders in all the recent substandard construction - apparently there’s no end of work in that niche.
..but how does one fix the substandard lots next to the freeway, under the power lines, near the dump, across from the mall, etc., etc.?
Like this?: Homeless group living in shelter of Cabrillo Bridge ejected
“reno work” - i guess that means renovation - considering that the immediately preceding comments were about long commutes in Oregon, I thought your friend might be commuting to Reno !
Completely off-topic:
Did anyone notice today that the smartest dude in the world made some moves?
Berkshire Hathaway got rid of half their stake in H&R Block (Owns #6 on the ML implode-o-meter) and half their stake in Ameriprise (got into the business of home equity loans and lines of credit last year).
Interestingly, they increased their holdings of Wells Fargo (#1 on the ML Implode-o-meter) and bought a stake in USG Corp (makes drywall).
It’s going to take a bit of thinking to figure out the moves, but the guy rarely makes bad investments. What does he know about these 3 mortgage lenders that we don’t? And why would he buy into USG at this point?
Foreclosure bowling parties.
Warren’s made tons of bad investments, he’s made tons of good investments, but if it weren’t for the free money of his float, he’d just be an average investor over the last decade or so.
Look at his Return on Assets rather than his Return on Equity sometime.
I believe (not sure, though) that Wells Fargo has experience processing REOs/foreclosures for themselves and other banks.
As for the drywall and USG, it is because so many FBs and GFs will be banging their heads on the wall, there will be a huge demand for drywall for fixing all of the holes.
lol Pen!
Priceless comment.
As for the drywall and USG, it is because so many FBs and GFs will be banging their heads on the wall, there will be a huge demand for drywall for fixing all of the holes.
LOL, went to an open house, FSBO, talked to the FB who bought, admitted he bought as an investment, asked what happended to the wall- he showed me his hand.
Many of them blame the media for spreading doom-and-gloom stories that have scared away buyers.”
This reality avoidance “media-caused-the-housing-bubble” argument really used to get under my skin due to the utter lunacy of it. But as time goes on I have made peace with it and no longer care what the RE ilk think caused it. I don’t particularly care if they think it was the media, the internet, bad weather, stubborn sellers, energy costs, the boogey man, global warming, aliens, leprechauns, or the ghost of Saint Joseph, we’re on a badly needed correction course and it doesn’t take a tremendous amount of effort to realize why. Hold your breath, stamp your foot and point your finger all you want, as long as houses become affordable again I don’t care what they believe.
The smartest thing they could do would be to admit that the bubble exists and needs to “pop”, then tell the sellers to “get over it” and lower their prices dramatically. This might produce lower commissions on average, but it is the only way out of the buyer/seller stalemate. I don’t see the buyers giving in. Even if they wanted to, they can’t..the numbers just don’t work. Plus, most sellers will be buyers on the other side of the transaction. For now, though, the sellers’ egos are in the way, “because their house should sell for more than their neighbors house sold for two years ago” or they are upside down.
REIC Talking Points/PR Handbook
Step 1: When in a jam, first deny there’s a problem.
Step 2: When the problem becomes undeniable, blame/shoot the messenger.
Step 3: Lather, rinse, repeat.
GOod one, but you’re forgetting or underestimating the super secret weapon AD campaign… “It’s a GREAT time to buy or sell”. This will stop the overdue correction in its tracks!
Yeah, that was 40 million well spent! Nice Job!
Boise’s a very nice little city and a great place to live providing you don’t mind working at the local Dairy Queen the rest of your life! Incomes in Boise are on a par with Arizona - $ 10 - 14 dollars per hour. Also, don’t forget that Idaho gets heavy duty winters so make sure you bring your survival parkas!
Whoa there Chillin. I grew up in upstate NY and know something about heavy duty winters. Boise is nowhere near heavy duty on the winter scale. It MIGHT snow 3 times all winter. It hovers around the high 30’s most of the time but you aren’t going to be shovelling out your driveway every week or anything like that.
C’mon,,,it only snows once in upstate NY…it starts in November and ends in June…
SNORT! You owe me some tissues!
back in my youth, I lived like royalty…
I dined at Burger King and Dairy Queen.
mmmmm. Dairy Queen. Fringe benefits could be good!!!!
just think of the benefits at Wendy’s or BJ Wholesale club…
It’s like baging your head against a brick wall.
http://yochicago.com/today/market-conditions/fidelity-investment-warns-not-to-count-on-homes-for-retirement_4047/
It’s like banging your head against a brick wall.
http://yochicago.com/today/market-conditions/fidelity-investment-warns-not-to-count-on-homes-for-retirement_4047/
Well of course you’ll get this from Fidelity. They need to scare you into investing in their funds.
But with home equity extraction, chronic relocation, etc., there’s going to be a lot less equity built up in the homes.
I am not saying that Fidelity is right or wrong, but one has to look at both the benefits and costs of owning a home.
I think the real point of the article was that people are expecting too much from their home from a financial planning perspective. Also, I did not see anywhere in the article, where Fidelity suggested people not buy homes.
People need to secure their personal financial future in a variety of ways…saving, investing, buying a home (at the right price/time/financing) or making sure that they have enough assets/income to cushion rent increases, insuring against disasters, etc.
I personally believe that owning a “sensible” home that is paid for, could be one of the best parts of a long term financial plan. Once the roof over your head is truly yours, I think one’s income requirements become very manageable.
Given the choice between taking Fidelity’s or NAR’s advice, I know which way I would go.
Pen,
Well said. I didn’t read where Fidelity wants your home to collapse in value either. If this were a fluff piece they should’ve made their views known in 2001. Given it was released in 2007 (after so many have leaned heavily on their homes value) gives it much more weight than saying “It’s a great time to buy OR sell a mutual fund”?
I agree with you. Didn’t mean to come across as pissy.
The roof over your head is never truly yours. The are retired people who have saved, are collecting good pensions, SocSec and have their home paid off and are still having problems hanging on to their homes because the taxes have become overbearing.
“That was still a bargain by San Diego prices, where the 2005 median home price was $552,000.”
The median list price on ziprealty.com right now is about $506K, off by 8.3% from $552K in 2005. Not sure if the $552K includes both SFRs and condos? (My $506K calculation includes both). Also not sure how much lower the median sale price is at the present time, but I believe it is probably south of $500K.
Whoa there Chillin. I grew up in upstate NY and know something about heavy duty winters. Boise is nowhere near heavy duty on the winter scale. It MIGHT snow 3 times all winter. It hovers around the high 30’s most of the time but you aren’t going to be shovelling out your driveway every week or anything like that.
—————————————————————————
My apologies! As a transplanted Californian (30 years) a “heavy duty” winter is any temperature below 40 degrees…you know, when you can’t wear the flipflops anymore!
I hear ya,
Funny. I spent two years in So. Cal just out of high school and could not stand the lack of seasons there. I really love a good winter, so long as it is not arctic (Minnesota), or doesn’t last too long. And I love fall and spring too. To each their own I guess.
Why do these people insist on the leverage point which only works when prices are heading up. But what about when the market heads down? Leverage works both ways!
The point of this article which is market timing is great. Why would you want to be in the market during a down cycle? Take San Diego for instance which just experienced a drop in 2006 that exceeded the ENTIRE early 1990s bust.
To further illustrate;
Price of home = $100k
Down Payment = $20k
5% DEPRECIATION = -$5K
Annual return on investment = -$5K/$20K = -25%
http://www.thebubblebuster.com
Historical Homes Prices of 50 Major US cities
Why do some people always try use the leverage point which only works when prices are heading up. But what about when the market heads down? Leverage works both ways!
The point of this article which is market timing is great. Why would you want to be in the market during a down cycle? Take San Diego for instance which just experienced a drop in 2006 that exceeded the ENTIRE early 1990s bust.
To further illustrate;
Price of home = $100k
Down Payment = $20k
5% DEPRECIATION = -$5K
Annual return on investment = -$5K/$20K = -25%
bingo!
but doesn’t r/e only go up?
not to mention transaction, carrying costs, etc.
Why is housebubble.com now all is Chinese?
I thought it was just me seeing the Chinese!
Question for the experts. I’ve been following this blog for 6 months now and just moved to D.C. I’m looking at a house that needs renovation. Advertised for 599, tax assessment 550K, they will take 500K. Home sold 10 years ago for 290K. No recent comps to compare. Its in zip code 22302, Alexandria VA. What would your offer be?
290K, but that’s just me.
How much will it cost to renovate? What were comps like in 1997 when it last sold? My suspicion is that 390K would be generous to offer.
Hoz, Try http://www.askmerv.choice3realty.com. Great blog, good resources and info for the local Northern VA buyer or seller. I personally sold my home in 20171 (sans realtor) in May 2006. I noted the condo market was very soft, and the single family housing market was declining anywhere between 7-9% depending on location.
Needs renovation … 500K … Alexandria?
You’re overpaying. Sorry.
PS–Alexandria *is* a nice place to live. I used to rent there for $350/mo. It was just a room (Huntington went for $300 for a room), but still … if that’s all a FB of a TH can get to help cover the mortgage, that should tell you all you need to know about proper pricing there.
If you’re asking that question, you’re not educated enough on the Alexandria market yet. I really suggest you spend a lot of time looking at MLS listing and city of Alexandria website (or Fairfax County - if this is an Alex. address, but not actually in the city limits, of which there is a lot) to get an idea about what is for sale, what’s sold, and how this listing compares.
Also - if the house is not in pristince condition and/or if you’re not an experienced handyham — you absolutely must get a home inspection — write your contract with a 3-5 day right of recission (sp?) 100% at your discretion. On the other hand - don’t use use the inspector to ask for nickel-and-dime cosemetic fixes — just make sure the systems and structure of the house are sound, and that you have a good idea about what it’ll cost you to renovate to your satisfaction.
But really — take your time and make sure you’re well educated about the market and the neighborhoods you want — in this market, there will always be other other houses — you want to make sure you get a house you like, at price you can afford, and at the right price.
I think there’s still more room for prices to fall in Alexandria over the next couple years. Spend some time, and you’ll figure it out. Alexandria’s a pretty solid place to live — but take your time getting to know the area.
For a moment I thought the housing bubble was in a state of complete meltdown, but I glad to find out that fears have been for naught. According to the expert, Federal Reserve (S.F.) president Janet Yellen, notes “recent signs of stabilization in the housing market” and “slim evidence that housing’s slowdown has spilled into other parts of the economy.”
Sarcasm off - Ok, whatever drugs this woman is smoking, I want some!!! She is out of her freaking mind. Only a totally uneducated, ignorant fool would make such patently false statements. And this coming from someone whose job it is to be an expert about these types of matter?
Not true! Remember the first rule of a member of the Federal Reserve is ‘do not tell the truth’. She knows that it is better to be ignorant going downhill than be told “hey you’re about to go over a cliff”. LOL
Oh I don’t know. I’m more inclined to blame her statements on her being from SFO than on her being from the Fed. How many SFO homeowners do you hear admitting that the housing market is crashing?
Zero.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fed-feds-yellen-sleeping-better/story.aspx?guid=%7BD3D39E61%2D62AD%2D41D8%2D9D4C%2D535B0776EB07%7D
(link to article)
Is this one of the smarter members of the FED?……or is this the dunce of the class?
Oh Yea! Look where she did her speech at … Santa Clara !
Place where homes in 8 years went from 180K to over 660K (same home tracked). Did salaries go that far Mr Yellen?
Did we have wage/salary inflation here?
We did have price inflation, should we have not raised rates a few clicks higher in Santa Clara due to the hyperinflation of homes?
BTW folks
Front page in Mercury News re: ATT and Microsoft patent infringment lawsuit. It seems a court decision will force R&D to
be shipped out overseas. So much for those $100K jobs in Silly Valley Good reading. For those who paid $800K on what really was a $200K home, and was counting for an Engineer with deep pockets… to provide a easy retirement GOOD LUCK BUDDY!~
Microsoft lawyers say the ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in favor of AT&T “threatens to impose massive liability on U.S. software companies” and could prompt companies to move their research facilities out of the country.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/technology/2006-10-27-microsoft-att_x.htm?csp=34
This could also be FUD by M$. Not all software development depends on MS (the company … the software is another matter!).
Google is mostly platform agnostic (their Windows only apps seem to have limited application) and their custom applications are rolled out on Linux. Apple has proprietary hardware/software rollouts. Those are two of the big employers drawing engineers into SV and driving up prices.
Bottom line: don’t read too much into MS press releases. They have an agenda, and it isn’t in your best interest.
It will probally never happen, but if California got back a quaility of of life and comon sense house prices people would flock back from places like Oregon,Idaho and Wash state. I know many who moved to these places and really don’t like the weather and red neck pick up truck crowd and what they say is a bible belt mentality.
These people have just as many issues as people back in Cal they just hide it better?
The Shadow,
Uh you’re kidding, right? Every effort is being made to turn Portland Oregon into Amsterdam “West”. We’ve had a tavern owner, a lesbian and a former C.O.P (who’s daughter is openly gay) for a mayor. NOT that there’s anything wrong with that! Even many smaller towns in OR have become liberal citadels. Maybe you were thinking about Montana or something?
Think rural areas in Southern Oregon and outskirts of Eugene, not Portland.
Springfield….it’s as red neck as Eugene is liberal. Strange two cities so close can be so different.
Albany..Cottage Grove..Sutherlin..Myrtle Creek..Drain (DRAIN?!?!)..Klamath Falls
I agree. Nice thing about Californian infestors is that they may move away for any number of reasons, but they typically retain a belief that the golden state is the best place on earth. So, at least some eventually return. I am hoping that is the case in this bubble. I don’t think Clownifornians are different from anyone else, but the hordes of bubble flush equity nomads that have overrun all the markets in the West have really screwed things up for working folks.
California Tops List of Subprime Mortgage Foreclosure Risk
A report recently published by the Center for Responsible Lending predicts that one in five subprime mortgages - loans designed for consumers with lower credit scores -originated over the past two years will end up in foreclosure.
According to “Losing Ground: Foreclosures in the Subprime Market and Their Cost to Homeowners,” this rate is twice as high as the projected foreclosure rate for subprime mortages originated in 2002.
Four of the five metro areas expected to experience the highest foreclosure rates for subprime mortgages originated in 2006 are California cities. The top five metro areas, along with their corresponding projected foreclosure rates are:
* Merced, CA (25%)
* Bakersfield, CA (24.2%)
* Vallejo-Fairfield, CA (23.8%)
* Las Vegas, NV (23.7%) and
* Fresno, CA (23.5%)
Of the top 15 metro areas projected to see the largest increase in foreclosure rates for subprime mortages (comparing the projected foreclosure rates for loans orginated between 1998-2001 and those originated in 2006), 14 are in California. The areas with the largest projected increase in foreclosure rates are:
* Santa Ana/Anaheim/Irvine
* Santa Barbara/Santa Maria
* San Diego/Carlsbad/San Marcos
This issue is an important one to watch, as increasing delinquency rates could place pressure on the property tax base if housing prices soften.
http://www.muninetguide.com/articles/California-Tops-List-of-Subprime-203.php
Posted the other day in Bits Bucket, here is 4Q in PDX and SEA.
http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPOR.shtm
http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPWA.shtm
Interesting numbers; especially for Clark County….thanks for the post. I sold in zip 98686 and know Clark like the back of my hand. If anyone has any questions, post ‘em….I’ll be happy to give you the “skinny”……
P.S. Glad I sold when I did….got lucky.
Dan, I just sold in 98686 also and have pretty much tracked every house sold there since August. Which subdivision did you sell in? I just closed a few weeks ago.
ok dan, don’t know where my other post went. I just sold in Hiddenbrook, where was your house?
Highlands at Pleasant Valley
I sold last year and, from what the chart says, I got out by the skin of my teeth. I could say I was a genius, but the truth is I simply got lucky. You sell when you need to; sometimes it works in your favor and sometimes it doesn’t.
“….I got out by the skin of my teeth. I could say I was a genius, but the truth is I simply got lucky…..”
Ditto for me. Sold in NE Portland. Sale fail on first offer, but got a 2nd fairly quickly.
Sold in the middle of winter in a down real estate market.
Lucky indeed.
..this winter is when I sold (January).
CNBC this morning is like “Housing Bubble TV”.
Subprime, KB, Toll, Novastar, etc- Mortgage problems caused by prime foreclosures.
Now they are discussing the psychology of losers- Why people won’t just take their losses.
50% off in ‘09, if it isn’t burned down…
It amazes me that people move to places and buy homes because of job opportunities. This is 2007, with more free enterprise in emerging markets and pressure to outsource more tech jobs overseas. So people should ask themselves if they really think their job will last as long as their mortgage. Instead of buying in, say, Treasure Valley, they should be renting. Their job will probably last 2 years before it’s outsourced. with the cheaper rent than mortgages, they could use the spare money they would otherwise pay on a mortgage by investing in an emerging markets mutual fund and at least profit in their own outsourcing. I’m doing exactly that T Rowe Price New Asia (PRASX), Vanguard Emerging Markets fund (VEiEX). I am also starting to buy some stock options in my job shop - they give me and other employees steady but low hourly rate jobs compared to other shops, I profit. Or if I get high hourly rate jobs, I profit in income but lose in my company stock. Kind of hedging against myself.
Just a thought.