February 26, 2007

Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For February 26, 2007

Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.




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156 Comments »

Comment by flatffplan
2007-02-26 04:24:20

other than the sub-prime abx bonds themselves, meltdown seeming to have no effect on credit markets-party continues

Comment by Jas Jain
2007-02-26 05:01:14


Party on until it crashes is the motto. You never know when you will get to party like this again. It could be the rest of their lives for most; just remember the Great Depression generation.

Jas

 
Comment by mrktMaven FL
2007-02-26 05:55:03

In regards to subprime lenders, I lifted this quote from the Economist magazine dated Dec. 13th, 2006 under the article titled — Mortgage lending:

Although Wall Street has been taking some subprime lenders under its wing, it has been helping to push others towards bankruptcy. As the market has turned in the past year, the big banks have started scrutinising loans offered up for securitisation far more closely–and are throwing far more than they used to back at the subprime lenders. Moreover, they can force the lenders to repurchase securitised loans if they turn sour in their first few months of life. Merrill Lynch has been on both sides of this tussle: it had a 15% stake in Ownit, the firm that went bust last week.

Are Wall Street firms profiting from the subprime debacle by knocking off competitors of their newly acquired subprime lending units to gain market share and shorting them as they spiral toward bankruptcy. IOW, are Wall Street firms orchestrating and profiting from the subprime meltdown OR are they simply cleaning house?

Comment by palmetto
2007-02-26 06:09:28

“Moreover, they can force the lenders to repurchase securitised loans if they turn sour in their first few months of life.”

Nice work if you can get it, eh? How many of us can force a buyback of a dog investment?

 
 
Comment by dawnal
2007-02-26 10:28:15

GREENSPAN WARNS OF POSSIBLE RECESSION BY YEAR END

TOKYO, Feb. 26 Kyodo
Former U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan warned
Monday that the U.S. economy might slip into recession by the end of
this year, Dow Jones Newswires reported.
Noting that the U.S. economy has been expanding since 2001,
Greenspan said there are signs that the current economic cycle is
coming to an end, according to a Dow Jones report from Hong Kong.
Greenspan was speaking to a business conference via satellite
link.
”When you get this far away from a recession invariably forces
build up for the next recession, and indeed we are beginning to see
that sign,” Greenspan was quoted as saying.
”For example in the U.S., profit margins have begun to
stabilize, which is an early sign we are in the later stages of a
cycle.”
Greenspan also said he has seen no economic spillover effects
from the slowdown in the U.S. housing market, and added that the
global economy seems ”benign and stable.”

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/200…span_forec.html

 
 
Comment by Jas Jain
2007-02-26 04:37:37


From my favorite novelist:

A man can wish upon himself, in full awareness, something harmful, stupid and even completely idiotic… in order to establish his right to wish for the most idiotic things.
— Fyodor Dostoevsky

More and more American women, as well as men, are establishing that right in America and elsewhere.

Comment by palmetto
2007-02-26 05:03:29

What’s wrong, Jas, did some American lady show you the door this weekend?

Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-02-26 05:17:54

No, she farted and blew out the window. The PSI was too high.

 
Comment by Jas Jain
2007-02-26 06:26:22


My observation is that women’s participation, far greater than in the past, played a big role in the latest Housing Bubble. Data fully support this observation.

I believe in looking at the reality without concern for PC or any other feelings that might be hurt.

Moral corruption that has taken deep roots among American population, being led from the top, is another area that offends people. But it is very important to discuss and understand this phenomenon.

Jas

Comment by palmetto
2007-02-26 06:41:18

“Moral corruption that has taken deep roots among American population, being led from the top, is another area that offends people. But it is very important to discuss and understand this phenomenon.”

Jas, you are preaching to the choir here. I don’t think you’ll get any argument about that on this board, so why bait the people here?

I agree, it should be discussed and understood. Would make a good weekend topic, I think. Who was it who said, of Nazi Germany, that in order for evil to flourish, it is only necessary for good men to keep silent?

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Comment by ocjohn
2007-02-26 10:20:21

Edmund Burke “All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.”

 
 
Comment by cfoofmofo
2007-02-26 06:44:25

Jas,

You give the US far to much credit as to it’s influence and power.

I think Europe has much of the same symtoms as America. Clean up your own backyard first and we will work on ours.

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Comment by palmetto
2007-02-26 06:47:43

I believe Jas is from India or Pakistan.

 
Comment by nhz
2007-02-26 06:55:02

definitely, the housing bubble is older and more severe in most of Europe. But I think there is some truth in the statement that women are playing a big part in this bubble, probably a bit more on the US side of the pond.

 
Comment by Jas Jain
2007-02-26 07:43:11


“I think Europe has much of the same symtoms as America.”

My contention is: America IS leading and Europe and India (two areas that I do know a bit about) are copying America. My knowledge of China is only second hand, but China is also setting itself up for a credit led bust, a capitalist phenomenon that is well understood by those who do look back at history before the WW II.

The whole world has many of the problems that America has because America has been the driver of the world economic system, especially, when it comes to stock markets and household, or consumer, lending.

Jas

 
Comment by Jas Jain
2007-02-26 07:46:05

“I believe Jas is from India or Pakistan.”

I was born in India but have spent most of my life in the US (almost all in CA).

Jas

 
Comment by nhz
2007-02-26 08:25:27

“My contention is: America IS leading and Europe and India are copying America.”

not really, the housing bubble was in full force in many ‘Old Europe’ countries when there were only some tiny pockets of froth in the US. In the Netherlands, home prices have been increasing relentlessly for about 20 years now, with most of the nineties at double digit rates.
When average home prices in the US started to increase seriously (around 2000), in many EU countries the bubble had already matured and prices increased at a more relaxed rate of 5-10% yoy.

The bubble mechanisms in Europe are a bit different (more government intervention with housing subsidies, tax incentives, zoning, building restrictions etc; less new construction and RE speculation within the same country) but the real cause is still easy money. The easy money has the same source for the US, Europe and India (mostly the FED, starting around 1987 when Greenspan took control; the BOJ and later the ECB played along with this) and this money is still flooding the EU RE market. It remains to be seen if EU follows and the easy money flood will dry up in Europe now (not a sign of it!), or if the current US RE problems are just a minor hickup like the problems we had in Europe around 2001 (in which case it would look like the US follows Europe).

 
Comment by Isoldearly
2007-02-26 08:28:15

Your roots are showing.

 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfruede
2007-02-26 20:26:12

Are you taking cheap shots at Jas because of his ethnicity? If so, that’s uncalled for, and tacky. Any individual in here deserves to be judged solely on the merits of their arguments. In my book, Jas is one of the more insightful, informed, and thought-provoking posters here. You can disagree with him without dragging in issues of race, ethnicity, religion, national origin, etc. I also don’t understand why some posters take issue with non-WASPs or foreign-born posters making critical but valid observations about Americans. Their opinions shouldn’t automatically be discounted or cause offense because they weren’t born here, or hold a foreign passport.

 
Comment by CA renter
2007-02-27 03:07:20

I agree with you, Sammy.

Blind patriotism is one of the more foolish characteristics of do nothing/think nothing sheeple. It’s how dictators gain power over the masses. Learn to question our own motives as well as the motives of those who lead us. Pride and apathy cometh before a fall.

We must always be willing to take an honest look at ourselves and be flexible enough to change things that need improvement. Digging our heels in the ground and insisting on our supposed superiority is what will be America’s downfall.

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2007-02-26 06:46:20

“Moral corruption that has taken deep roots among American population, being led from the top, is another area that offends people. But it is very important to discuss and understand this phenomenon.”

I would also argue that much of the moral corruption that has taken root among the American population has to do with exposure to and infiltration by corrupt cultures via globalization. A squeeze from the top (corporations and government) and bottom (illegal immigration).

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Comment by arlingtonva
2007-02-26 06:48:49

“Moral corruption that has taken deep roots among American population”

What country is the shining beacon in your world? There are many of us in America that feel helpless with the current state of affairs and we are trying to do something about it. Look at all the political meetups at meetup.com. You don’t get that kind of political participation in many other countries.

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Comment by Mark
2007-02-26 06:58:39

The nation-state is an artificial construct invented only 500-600 years ago. Anyone who is a nationalist or a patriot is an immoral fool who will happily murder anyone in defense of a colored piece of cloth called a “flag”.

 
Comment by jbunniii
2007-02-26 08:09:31

Strange, what were all those wars in ancient Greece and Rome about?

 
Comment by Tulkinghorn
2007-02-26 09:06:44

Ethnicity as understood at the time: competing elites with different ethnic associations and social networks. Control over cities meant control over colonization and trade routes and systems. Check out how easily different politicians changed sides during the Peloponnesian war.

The only time Hellenic identity became important was a way of mobilizing opposition to the Persians, but when the Persians invaded there were more Greek-speaking soldiers in their army than there were in the Greek armies.

The first time there was a Greek state was when the Greeks won independence from the Turks.

 
Comment by Patriotic Bear
2007-02-26 10:36:25

Tell that to Alexander the Great.

 
Comment by Ol'Bubba
2007-02-26 20:19:57

he’s dead.

 
Comment by ajh
2007-02-27 04:13:54

And he was Macedonian, not Greek.

 
 
Comment by arlingtonva
2007-02-26 06:58:58

I met a very bright software engineer from Romania two months ago, and I asked him why he had come all the way here to America. He told me in Romania you need to know someone to get a good job, in America you just need skills.
Another quick story: I was getting the oil changed on my car, and I was talking to the manager and he told me his story - 20 years ago he was giving inspections and now he owns 8 auto repair shops - he told me he loves America. Do we have problems - hell yea - but not as bad as most of the other countries in the world.
I was thinking George Washington and Thomas Jefferson would have been proud to hear that.

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Comment by jlr
2007-02-26 07:08:29

not sure about the women you know, but all the women I know seem to have a much better grasp of economics/budgeting than the men . . .

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Comment by dimedropped
2007-02-26 07:21:53

Amen to that. I don’t see too many women riding around on $25,000 Harleys or driving cigarette boats. I know in my household I was a much bigger fool when it came to money. I was quick to convince myself it made sense to buy all the toys. And no I did not buy any houses. Got burned bad in the 80’s and learned my lesson.

 
Comment by palmetto
2007-02-26 07:28:47

“I don’t see too many women riding around on $25,000 Harleys or driving cigarette boats.”

Then you haven’t been to Daytona (Harleys) or Miami (cigarette boats). Actually, I’m just kidding, because if I’ve read your past posts correctly, you’ve been to both places.

 
Comment by jbunniii
2007-02-26 08:12:34

I don’t see too many men owning 20+ pairs of shoes or $300 handbags either. Both genders waste money on stupid things. Women do seem to have a stronger desire for the gigantically expensive items that dwarf everything else: house and offspring.

 
Comment by Troy
2007-02-26 09:29:06

“20+ pairs of shoes or $300 handbags”

it’s actually smart to own that many shoes . . . 20 pairs of shoes last 20x longer than 1 pair of shoes; hell, throw in inflation, and stocking up is a bargain.

If I were a chick I’d have a $300 handbag too. No need sacrificing quality and style for something you’re going to have to carry around with you every day of your life. The amortized cost of a $300 handbag is pennies a day.

 
Comment by Patriotic Bear
2007-02-26 10:40:52

The mania is cheap credit and emotion. Anyone knows that women have the greatest say in a home purchase. The feminine side is more emotional. Women and girly men are responsible for this mania . We will soon have hysteria and pms.

 
2007-02-26 10:41:57

$300 is cheap for a handbag, and 20 pairs of shoes only last as long as a single pair of shoes if you follow fashion.

 
Comment by gwynster
2007-02-26 11:26:04

There was a commerical that played during the Oscars last night showing a woman that “needed” a new pair of shoes and that went to put it on her debt card. The voice over goes on to say “nahhh” and she puts the charge on her visa.
Talk about trying to inspire bad purchasing habits! I’ve looked for a copy of the spot but can’t locate it. I think it’s up there with the “Susanne researched this”.

 
Comment by josemanolo7
2007-02-26 13:08:51

“I don’t see too many men owning 20+ pairs of shoes or $300 handbags either”

not unless they start wearing red, purple, pink, yellow, aqua, etc colored pants and shirt.

 
 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfruede
2007-02-26 20:14:52

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ubsd-tWYmZw

It would be interesting to try to quantify, and qualify, the role that women played in the bubble. From what I’ve observed, women tend to be less rational when it comes to buying a house, relying on “feelings” and driven by a need to impress their friends and social circle, rather than making sober, informed risk/benefit calculations. As such, I think women have played a disporportionate role in the bubble. The legions of single women with their sense of entitlement and fuzzy math and logic skills, and the married women who hen-peck their husbands into buying overpriced houses, have been a primary causative factor in the bubble, IMHO. Not to let guys off the hook: like the guy in the “Suzanne Researched This” Century 21 ad, far too many men have acted like cringing wimps when it came to being buffaloed by their wives and RE harpies, and failed in their primary responsibility of protecting their families from avoidable disasters.

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Comment by awaiting bubble rubble
2007-02-26 21:57:58

‘As such, I think women have played a disporportionate role in the bubble.’

What I’ve noticed most is that women or women dominated couples seem to dominate the ranks of Realtors. They have created an atmosphere where nobody questions an advertisement for a house that gives no details (not the number of bedrooms, square footage, or even the location) about the house but features a nice headshot of an attractive woman.

 
Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-02-27 09:18:00

Would bet you most of the contractors, flippers and investors were men. Everyone is saying that’s what’s caused this problem in the first place.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Japan Bubble Survivor
2007-02-26 05:44:22

Brilliant quote from Dostoevsky. Thanks for reminding me of this greatest of novelists.

 
Comment by arlingtonva
2007-02-26 06:45:14

Jas,
Are you American?
I find it offensive some guy in Europe calling Americans stupid and idiotic. Yea many of us have made mistakes with finance, but you know what, Americans are smarter and harder working than people from many of the countries you seem to admire.

You know why the rest of the world puts up with the corruption in America? Because many of the other countries in the world are 10 times more corrupt.

Comment by palmetto
2007-02-26 07:01:07

Well, as much as I dislike the American baiting, I understand Jas’s point. Tom Friedman, who I think is a bore and a war shill, did make one good statement about the rest of the world being disappointed in the US, because the US has been looked to as a beacon of freedom and prosperity and we are letting people down. And in a way, that’s true. We’ve let a Frankenstein monster take the helm and we’ve let corrupt third world cultures take hold within our borders (google Cudahy, California, coming soon to a township near you if we don’t nip it in the bud now. Also google Clay Moore of Manatee County, Florida. I have warned friends that kidnappings for ransom will take root here as a result of illegal immigration and by God, it has started.) I’ve often seen many of the posters here bemoan the fact that they have a friend or two who bought real estate during the bubble despite their efforts to warn them. They gave up, not wanting to ruin a friendship. But at least they spoke up and that’s what all of us have to do.

Comment by Isoldearly
2007-02-26 08:48:21

It isn’t just America … look at history:
The average age of the world’s great civilizations has been two hundred years. These nations have progressed through the following sequence: from bondage to spiritual faith, from spiritual faith to great courage, from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance, from abundance to selfishness, from selfishness to complacency, from complacency to apathy, from apathy to dependency, from dependency back to bondage.” Alexander Tyler

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Comment by nnvmtgbrkr
2007-02-26 09:21:42

In the words of the wise man, “There is nothing new under the sun.”

History will repeat itself over and over again. Human nature never changes, and the cycles we inhabit, whether it be life to death, poverty to prosperity, ignorance to enlightenment, will indeed never change. Our grandfathers and fathers experienced the dawn and the day of a new empire, and we will experience it’s twilight.

 
Comment by Jas Jain
2007-02-26 11:55:01


isoldearly,

You fell for an Unban Legend. Tyler never wrote that. It has been circulated like crazy in America for at least twenty years that I have known this. BTW, I have made the mistake of quoting this myself in the past.

There is a lot of truth in this particular Urban Legend, though.

Jas

 
 
Comment by josemanolo7
2007-02-26 13:14:57

“as a result of illegal immigration”. you must be kidding. take out half of the police force, shove them with all sort of excuses not to get paid and trained properly, remove all the illegal immigrants, etc, you will still get the nasty result.

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Comment by asuwest2
2007-02-26 07:02:51

dude–chill.

Jas is correct, as there have been a number of articles, some posted here noting the significantly higher purchase rate for both homes and ‘investment’ properties by women. Ditch the ‘red-neck’ attitude, please. It’s important to be able to look in the mirror and see the warts as well as the beauty.

Jas– I enjoy reading your posts, though I don’t agree with all. (of course, if that were the case I’d be no different than hard right/hard left). Keep it up.

Comment by palmetto
2007-02-26 07:17:54

“Ditch the ‘red-neck’ attitude, please.”

What’s red-neck about political participation? If I have to go into a foxhole, I want someone like arlingtonva next to me. They’ve got the guts to speak up instead of standing for a putdown.

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Comment by redhead68
2007-02-26 07:58:00

And, your point would be what

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Comment by Jas Jain
2007-02-26 08:46:36


“Jas, Are you American?”

Hello arlingtonva,

Yes, I earned my US citizenship. I don’t wish to brag about my contributions US technology here on this blog.

Just to make you feel good about America, I AM A BIG FAN OF OLD AMERICA. My criticism, primarily, is the moral corruption compared with the American past. Again, not to brag, I have studied the US history more thoroughly than 99%+ of those who were born in America. How many Americans keep the copy of the Declaration Of Independence and the Constitution Of The United States in their top drawer? I read parts of it several times a year. I also study, several times a year, Democracy In America, Wealth Of Nations, and Business Cycles. These are seminal works to understand American past (rise to its greatness), the present, and the future. Anyone who has not read these works for years is not worth listening to in terms of what is wrong with America and where we are heading.

I hope that people focus on issues and not on personal backgrounds. It is useful to know about people’s experiences and knowledge base from which they derive their observations.

Jas

Comment by Tulkinghorn
2007-02-26 09:16:53

Jas:

You don’t deserve a lecture, but I think you are taking too rosy a view of America’s past and thus too grim a view of America’s future. There has been a lot of conflict, especially between 1865 and 1941, that has largely been forgotten, and numerous financial crises and disasters too.

We screw up a lot here… I guess it is a result of social liberty that is not too far from anarchy. So far we have adjusted, and some of us have tried to learn from the mistakes.

And in the end, if the experiment ends up a failure, at least we got Mark Twain, Will Rogers, and Ambrose Bierce out of it.

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Comment by Jas Jain
2007-02-26 10:09:41


“but I think you are taking too rosy a view of America’s past and thus too grim a view of America’s future. There has been a lot of conflict, especially between 1865 and 1941, that has largely been forgotten, and numerous financial crises and disasters too.”

No, sir, or madam, I don’t have a rosy picture of America’s past, not when it comes to morality, or people’s Beliefs and Habits. The future depression and the conflicts that it will lead to will make all the past ones, including the Civil War, look tame in comparison.

Being able to loan someone else’s money without any consequences to those making the loans directly leads to fraud and should have never been allowed. Federal Reserve is fully responsible to oversee private credit, especially, abuses of private credit.

America is being ruled by some of the most corrupt and evil people who don’t believe in any morality. I would point to the deliberate herding of some 30,000,000 households into Debt Concentration Camps as a piece of evidence. Housing Bubble was driven from the very TOP. That is what most on this blog don’t grasp. I coined the term Bankrupters and Fraudsters in 2003 when I saw the beginning of this phenomenon. It was so obvious as to what was going on and nothing was done to stop the future fiasco. Did the US Constitution protect people from this obvious evil? No, because the Crooks have taken control of the govt.

BTW, my family has been in moneylending business for centuries (I am the only one who didn’t go into that business) and I was doing research on household debt and its effects on families at the ripe old age of eight (I could calculate compound interest on customer accounts at that age) and I would accompany my father at his audit trips to the city at the age of ten. So, I do understand the debt business very well. What has been allowed to go on in the US is totally immoral and is a result of a very corrupt system. And there are going to be severe consequences. Otherwise, I wouldn’t bother.

Jas

 
Comment by Tulkinghorn
2007-02-26 10:40:33

You missed my point. As bad as the Fraudsters and Bankrupters are, they are nothing new. Ripoff artists, conmen, and corrupt insiders have been integrated into American society from the beginning, as they are in all countries.

I share your concern for the future should there be a severe economic collapse (I am expecting a moderate one). We are not well equipped, socially, to handle such a sever collapse, which, as a matter of mathematics, is going sooner or later. You may be aware of this article comparing the former USSR and modern USA, ‘Closing the Collapse Gap’:
http://energybulletin.net/23259.html

 
Comment by Jas Jain
2007-02-26 10:52:39


“You missed my point. As bad as the Fraudsters and Bankrupters are, they are nothing new. Ripoff artists, conmen, and corrupt insiders have been integrated into American society from the beginning, as they are in all countries. ”

I have run into this line of reasoning countless times in the past. Let me repeat what have said to others in the past: In human affairs, it is the DEGREE that matters. I have concluded that the degree of crookery and its ****centralization**** is far greater than in the past. Please look at the degree of Scam Options (a term that I coined in 1998) fraud and the mortgage fraud and give me an example from the past that it can be compared to.

Today’s Bankrupters and Fraudsters are evil, while in the past they were mere crooks. That is the difference.

Fraud, as % of the GDP, is the highest by far.

Jas

 
Comment by arlingtonva
2007-02-26 12:02:21

Speaking of government, here’s a cool site that may help provide some transparency to government:
http://www.opencongress.org/

 
Comment by josemanolo7
2007-02-26 13:26:22

jas, the problem with your rosy view of history is that they were written to be rosy by the same men that you despises today. watch how they are writing history today to look rosy tomorrow. the sources of history has been very limited before the internet and were written by people with the same vested interest as those writing today. they look foolish to us today but long ago with limited information people look at most of them as the great men of *incredible* abilities as painted by writers, authors, historians, etc.

 
 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfruede
2007-02-26 20:31:54

Well said, Jas.

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Comment by Big V
2007-02-26 15:37:09

Thanks for tuning in folks.

And now it’s time for everyone’s favorite game …

(drumroll)

… Blame The Nearest Woman!

 
 
Comment by Jas Jain
2007-02-26 04:38:34


Greenspan: Recession later in 2007 is possible

Translation: Recession in 2007 is likely.

Jas

Comment by flatffplan
2007-02-26 04:44:28

did he say to lower rates below inflation?
“worked for me” greenspin

Comment by tl
2007-02-26 13:02:50

Hmmm. Considering how many times Greenspan has been wrong in the past, I wonder if maybe we DON’T get a recession in 2007!

Comment by josemanolo7
2007-02-26 13:28:06

i really believe he has the early onset of dementia or worse

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Comment by Wickedheart
2007-02-26 20:14:41

You might have something there. I used to tell my Dad President Ronald Reagan had dementia.

 
 
 
 
Comment by luvs_footie
2007-02-26 04:53:30

For the last 12 months it’s been cool to talk about “Goldilocks”

For the next 12 months they’ll all be talking “The Recession”

After that……..who knows.

Comment by flatffplan
2007-02-26 04:56:03

after the stock to home equity debt transfer many are convinced the business cycle is a relic

Comment by AL
2007-02-26 05:44:03

And last week CNBC was talking about how we are near the all time record for stock margin debt… i guess we know what was the next attempted bubble, I’m sure as soon as we have a crack in the stock market all the day traders will exit fast…

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Comment by Neil
2007-02-26 07:29:15

How do we get more information on stock margin debt levels?

I guess time to google…

Got popcorn?
Neil

 
Comment by Neil
2007-02-26 07:30:41

I should have googled first…

Investors using margin debt hits $285.6 billion record in NYSE-listed shares
http://www.thejournalnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070225/BUSINESS01/702250331/1066/BUSINESS01
Got popcorn?
Neil

 
Comment by sf jack
2007-02-26 09:32:14

$285 billion? That’s it?

I would have thought more.

 
 
 
 
Comment by palmetto
2007-02-26 05:08:01

Ah, but Cramer was on Chris Matthews yesterday and he said everything is going to be just fantastic, because Hank Paulson’s in charge. LMAO!

Comment by nnvmtgbrkr
2007-02-26 09:45:07

How did Matthews respond?

 
 
Comment by AL
2007-02-26 05:37:59

I think we have already started into the recession since, as usual, we never seem to know we are in recession till we have already been in it for a couple quarters.
–AL

Comment by palmetto
2007-02-26 05:41:32

Good observation, AL

 
Comment by Quirk
2007-02-26 05:53:24

You nailed it big time. What happens is that anemic numbers come in, then midway through the next quarter they’re adjusted downward and into the negative. Then that quarter’s numbers show negative, and wham-o it’s a recession.

Comment by palmetto
2007-02-26 06:20:20

“Then that quarter’s numbers show negative, and wham-o it’s a recession.”

And then the games begin. Having lived through a couple of “recessions”, it is interesting to note the mass psychology at work. Even people who can well afford to spend, don’t. Their excuse? “It’s a recession, you know”. Works the same way coming down as it did going up.

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Comment by the_voz
2007-02-26 12:30:57

Q$ 06 or Q1 07 recession bagan/begins….

Dear tiny 8lb 6 oz baby Jesus, please…..

Comment by the_voz
2007-02-26 12:34:15

Q4, ‘06

in your golden fleece diapers, and your little……

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Comment by Lou Minatti
2007-02-26 05:40:52

I just read that and I thought like everyone else: Hasn’t he been saying until very recently that everything’s sunshine and roses?

What an overpaid moron.

 
Comment by ragerunner
2007-02-26 06:53:45

Can you post were that he said that?
Thanks,

Comment by palmetto
2007-02-26 07:06:54

ragerunner, are you referring to my post regarding Cramer’s comments? If so, I can only tell you that he was on ABC’s Chris Matthews Show on Sunday as part of the panel. Truly, I’ve never heard such positive spin in my life and he’s completely in love with Paulson.

 
 
Comment by cactus
2007-02-26 07:08:55

Thats interesting, and we do have an inverted yield curve……..
well maybe I need to buy some treasuries as much as I hate to do it with all this inflation but the worm may turn.

 
Comment by housegeek
Comment by palmetto
2007-02-26 07:34:52

Somebody should take the snot out of that guy. Seriously, he’s retired, right? Except like Kissinger, these old criminals just can’t stand being out of the limelight. It would literally kill them to be ignored, so they’ll show up at a mall opening to make a pronouncement. Hey, AL, stick a fork in yourself. You’re done!

 
 
Comment by housegeek
2007-02-26 07:29:17

Greenspan was saying no signs of it in Sept 2006:

Alan Greenspan: No recession
Long Island Business News, Sep 29, 2006 by Jeremy Harrell

Alan Greenspan, perhaps the most noteworthy economist alive, said Friday there are no signs pointing to an imminent recession.

“The evidence is not there,” said the former chairman of the Federal Reserve at the Long Island Association’s 80th Anniversary luncheon in Woodbury. “That doesn’t mean it can’t happen. But the elements of a recession are not yet there.”

Still, there are some troubling economic indicators. Manufacturers spent the last few years building up inventory, and now there is a small glut of goods in market.

The clearest manifestation of this phenomenon is the residential real estate market, which has tapered off considerably from its recent white-hot past, Greenspan said. The slowdown in the residential real estate market has reduced capital-gains income, and that reduction leaves less money for consumer spending.

Higher fuel prices in the first three quarters of 2006 have also cut into consumer spending, he said. However, “there’s a general expectation that, with lower gas prices, the fourth quarter will be better,” said Greenspan, who largely sidestepped a question about impending inflation.

Comment by chilidoggg
2007-02-27 01:58:31

This guy is such a douchebag. He speaks today of the current expansion as beginning in 2001. In Winter of 2001 he was telling all of us that what peril we were in because the Federal Government would be raking in such huge surpluses that they would have to start buying assets.

 
 
 
Comment by cyppok
2007-02-26 04:55:46

Housing is irrelevant right now to me I just want a job, last semester hopefully and so far noone calling me for about two months. Something is very wrong. I just want a good starting job, by good (one that pays above 0 dollars an hour) and has something to do with my majors business/economics.

If anyone wants to read something wonderfully honest try “Hyman Minsky” good economist.

Also if you could hook me up with an internship in NYC area do not hesitate to give an email.

Comment by Jas Jain
2007-02-26 05:08:55


Austrian School and Hyman Minsky will be resurrected during the coming depression. Until then, people will keep ignoring them.

Jas

Comment by flatffplan
2007-02-26 05:20:26

I need a comic book version of “the road to serfdom” what a dreary read that was………

Comment by Jas Jain
2007-02-26 06:37:52


“what a dreary read that was……… ”

Vow, I remember enjoying reading it. I think that I have read most of Hayek’s work and there is one whole in his argument — he assumes ethics as a given. I don’t think that ethics is a given in a society; there are some periods during which some societies had displayed very high levels of business ethics, but this is definitely not a permanent condition.

Understanding ethics of a society is extremely important to figure out what sort of system would work and what would fail. The current ethics, or lack thereof, on the American society have laid the foundations for the collapse of the system as we have known it.

Jas

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Comment by Jas Jain
2007-02-26 06:39:46


Oops, HOLE in his argument.

 
Comment by cfoofmofo
2007-02-26 06:47:57

Yes, and Europe is the Moral Authority..NOT.

 
Comment by asuwest2
2007-02-26 07:06:21

GIVE IT A REST, ok?
Remember, the best thing that the current administration ever did was shoot a lawyer.

 
Comment by asuwest2
2007-02-26 07:07:38

Sorry, forgot. According to W, highlight of his time in office was catching a 7 pound fish. Please wake me when the nightmare is over.

 
 
 
Comment by watcher
2007-02-26 05:35:35

Austrian economics is taught at only two universities in America. Clemson is one of them; I forget the other.

Comment by Bubbleviewer
2007-02-26 05:58:57

Ludwig von Mises Institute is at Auburn, I believe.

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Comment by Walker
2007-02-26 06:04:01

That’s false. The University of Dallas (I used to work there) is entirely Austrian. All of the faculty regularly bad-mouth Keynsian economics. There are also Austrians at George Mason, as that is where many UD students go to graduate school.

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Comment by Troy
2007-02-26 09:33:23

U of Chicago is PNAC & Austrian Central.

 
 
 
 
Comment by not a gator
2007-02-26 05:37:55

Lol, retail.

Hang in there, kid … jobs can be awfully hard to come by. More lies they tell you when you go to college.

I hate selling myself, but we live in a capitalist country, not communist. Oh well, in communist Russia I never would have been able to have this shiny computer. Guess it’s worth the whoring and sucking up.

Comment by txchick57
2007-02-26 05:43:50

I hate selling myself

Me too, so I don’t. You don’t need that much money to live decently.

Comment by palmetto
2007-02-26 05:49:11

AMEN, sistah!

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-02-26 06:58:19

I’ve been in business for many years, but the concepts of selling in general, and selling myself in particular, seem to elude me. Oh, well. I must be doing something right because people keep doing business with me.

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Comment by nnvmtgbrkr
2007-02-26 09:49:34

All of my closest friends make twice as much money as I do, but I live twice as well.

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Comment by palmetto
2007-02-26 06:04:58

” Guess it’s worth the whoring and sucking up.”

I have a shiny computer myself, which I got by selling my house at the peak. It had better work for a good long time, because I don’t have any more houses to sell. People get very unhappy with planned obsolescence. Speaking of which, wait until planned obsolescence shows up in the housing market. That ought to raise a few hackles. If I were a developer, I’d be digging a moat around my house right now and hiring private security.

Is it really worth it to cheat, lie to and steal from your fellow man?

Comment by josemanolo7
2007-02-26 13:37:35

computers are not that expensive anymore. a decade ago a decent system will cost about a months pay (2000). now it is less than a weeks pay (500). not even adjusting for inflation yet. $500? I see a decent laptop at that price every now and then from office depot, staples, compusa, best buy, etc, after rebate.

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Comment by Quirk
2007-02-26 05:55:31

Our new economy is based on outsourcing. Perhaps you could outsource yourself to India. Then you could reap the profit on the back end when you retail yourself here in America. Think about it!

 
Comment by Joe Schmoe
2007-02-26 06:15:49

Hang in there. The entry level job market, like the housing market, is a lot more difficult than it used to be. We’ve all been there. You’ll get something. It might not be your first choice, and it probably won’t pay very much, but you will find a job in your chosen field.

Once you get it, just concentrate on doing a good job, even if it’s not exactly where you want to be. The flip side of the instability is that lots of opportunities are always opening up. You’ll be able to change jobs in a year or two, no one works for the same place for 30 years nowadays.

Comment by eastcoaster
2007-02-26 07:01:31

Nothing new about this. It’s called paying your dues. A college degree does not make a person immune to that.

 
 
 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-02-26 05:15:37

“Restrained by a worse-than-expected slump in housing, the economy will grow at the slowest pace in five years in 2007, leading economic forecasters say.”

What a crock of $hit. They act like this came out of the clear blue sky. Then how come a bunch of dimwits on a blog have predicted this every step of the way? The experts are “boobs” and the bloggers are right.

And still they don’t admit that the slump will get much worse. I guess next year there will be another headline that reads, “A Completely Unexpected Further Weakening in Housing Mysteriously Causes the Worst Recession Since 1982″. Excuse me while I go take a few shots with my buddy Jack Daniels. I just can’t take this much dishonesty this early in the morning.

Comment by flatffplan
2007-02-26 05:19:21

but read on - consumers will get a break on energy prices
ngas almost $8 and oil over 61 w no new nukes in site

Comment by Mike Fink
2007-02-26 05:35:16

I have always loved this “spin”.

Somehow, a the price of a gallon of gas going from $3 to $2 per gallon is going to “stimulate” my spending, and somehow help me leverage myself into the 1M dollar McMansion that I “deserve”.

For anyone who can even realistically think about paying 500K+ for a home, the price and monthly expense of gas is truly a “drop” in the bucket. I spend more on my haircut every month then I spend on gas (for 2 people). The price of gas is a total non-issue for anyone making north of 100K a year, it is such a tiny fraction of your actual expenses every month, it could be written off to “stastical anamoly” (sorry, I can’t spell).

If your really looking at a 500K home, you should be making quite a bit north of 100K. In that case, unless you have 5 H1 Hummers in the driveway, gas is a total pittiance compared to your income (and, more importantly, the price of the POS you want to buy).

Comment by Bubbleviewer
2007-02-26 06:12:46

You are right. But you are very wrong if you assume this situation will continue on much longer. Gas at $2 or $3 per gallon is essentially “free.” You often pay more for water. We get approximately 50% of our oil from 1% of oil fields. 14 Super Giant fields provide 20% of all oil, and these fields are all extremely mature. Peak Oil is essentially here. The 3 largest fields (Ghawar, Cantarell, Burgan) are all in confirmed decline. Demand from China, India, and other Asian countries will continue increasing. Exporting nations need to use more domestically, meaning less available for export (US imports almost 70% of its oil).
When people start to grasp how closely oil production growth and economic growth are linked, the real “bargains” in Suburban real estate will start to appear. Personally, I think farmland will be a much better investment.

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Comment by palmetto
2007-02-26 05:31:21

“I just can’t take this much dishonesty this early in the morning.”

Now, even though I take shots at the American-baiting from Jas, I give huge props to his countrywoman Arundhati Roy. She’s out there fighting the good fight, risking her life by defying the lying sacks of s**t from the multinational corporations and their government shills. Her advice is to laugh at them and mock them. It’s a good start. Nothing drives these folks crazier than not to be taken seriously.

 
Comment by Polestar
2007-02-26 05:35:10

Yes, and this Martin Crutsinger (AP economics writer) also says:

“But the economic forecasters see a cushion to the sharp drop in housing: stronger than previously expected consumer spending. This measure will grow by 3.2 percent in 2007…”

Yup, these same consumers who can no longer tap the draining down the toilet equity of their homes are going to ramp up their spending? With what, another maxed out credit card? Besides their monthly bills, their credit card interest debt is going to kill them. There isn’t anything left, don’t they get it?!

Comment by renterbychoice
2007-02-26 06:26:59

im embarrassed for my profession

 
 
Comment by mrktMaven FL
2007-02-26 06:17:14

“I guess next year there will be another headline that reads, “A Completely Unexpected Further Weakening in Housing Mysteriously Causes the Worst Recession Since 1982′″.

Nah…they will skip that step and start focusing on the recovery. Headlines will read — the worst is over; prosperity is around the corner.

Comment by KIA
2007-02-26 09:14:04

Well, they’ll print whatever will sell newspapers, and people who believe it will buy the newspapers so they have something to wear.

 
 
 
Comment by ragerunner
2007-02-26 05:31:06

They are slowly feeding the info to the public. This is part of the strategy to bring the economy into a ’soft landing’ with only a recession. I think by late spring early summer we will see the comments that we are going into a recession but it should be a mild one.

Comment by palmetto
2007-02-26 05:50:20

Yep, they are getting out the vaseline.

 
Comment by Quirk
2007-02-26 05:57:42

Yeah, there’s only one problem with these recession things. They’re just like cars without brakes. You can never make them stop when you want them to.

 
 
Comment by watcher
2007-02-26 05:33:20

UK housing bubble update:
http://www.safehaven.com/article-6998.htm

Comment by not a gator
2007-02-26 05:42:13

Traditionally, average earnings and house prices have been taken together to produce an affordability ratio, this ratio has clearly in recent years shown itself to be flawed, as UK house prices have not fallen, because this measure has ignored historically low interest rates as a function of earnings and house prices, and therefore a more accurate indicator needs to include interest rates.

Ah yes, totally ’strong’ housing market, no bubble whatsoever, American experience is irrelevant, move along now.

Comment by nhz
2007-02-26 07:00:12

I think they need a more accurate indicator that includes the influence of liar loans and crazy subsidies; that would explain why housing markets in Europe are still surging and ignoring the troubles in the US.

Comment by dimedropped
2007-02-26 07:35:05

Speaking of “bubble Europe” I’d say their bubble is here. Many many of the bubbletown holdings here are Europeans and especially Brits. With the exchange rate they simply have not hit that ultra pain yet.

Oh but it is coming, rest assured.

Orlando, Fl

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Comment by nhz
2007-02-26 08:46:52

also keep in mind that overseas investors can keep speculating as long as prices in their home market are still holding or rising. Many of these purchases are financed with the virtual gains from the EU bubble, and many of these investors have made tons of money over the last 10-15 years. This enables them to hold on to their investments much longer than US speculators who get killed at the first rate reset/increase.

In the UK (as far as I know) there are some troubles in the higher market segment, but apart from that the bubble is still healthy. Netherland and some other EU countries similar story, many EU homeowners are speculating in overseas markets (and for Netherlands, Florida is one of them lately, judging from all the advertisements I see here).

 
 
Comment by John Fleming
2007-02-26 08:05:20

Ireland (the European Tiger) about to crack?

EU experts: Economy faces major slowdown

“The economy is at risk of an imminent and ‘‘very serious’’ slowdown due to high wages, an overdependence on construction and a potential collapse in consumer spending, a top European research agency will warn in a major report to be published this week.”

“While inward migration had helped to keep wage pressures down, especially among low-skilled workers, they had also contributed to the continuation of the boom in the construction sector.

‘‘In Ireland, the demand for new housing by migrants is one of the factors contributing to the strong dynamics of the real estate market, hence to the prolonged boom in the construction sector,” said the group. But that boom was close to fading away, the report said.”

‘‘The strong rate of expansion and the high market valuation of the housing stock point to the risk of a significant reversal at some point in the near future,” it said.

http://www.sbpost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=NEWS-qqqs=news-qqqid=21320-qqqx=1.asp

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Comment by nhz
2007-02-26 08:50:11

Ireland sure is the market to watch as it is probably the most speculative of all the national markets in the EU.
But well, we have seen similar warnings from IMF and OECD about the Netherlands 5 years ago and we know what happened after that: off to the races, again :(

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by chilidoggg
2007-02-26 05:58:23

If FB bought a house 12 months ago with negam loan for, say $500k, and walks away when he can’t afford reset, and lender forcloses on loan of $525k now, does that count as a sale of existing home for 5% increase in price?

Comment by tom stone
2007-02-26 06:41:52

According to DataQuick,yes.and one day on the market.so things are pcking up,gotta love it.

 
Comment by sellnrun
2007-02-26 07:10:10

Depends. Did they put 20% down and finance 80% on neg am? If so, I would say “yes.” If it was a typical 2/28 neg am bundled in an 80/20, you would owe the difference between what the bank got for it and the balance on the note.

For instance, the bank finally unloads it for $450K. The FB would be on the hook for $75K (525-450) plus capital gains to the IRS on the $75K in profit.

Comment by Troy
2007-02-26 09:39:02

don’t think you would pay the $75K AND be 1099′d on it; that’s mutually exclusive.

 
 
 
Comment by jstab
2007-02-26 06:12:04

You know the condo craze has gone too far when $500,000+ condos are for sale in Bethlehem, PA: Link here. The owner/flipper is a Realtor too!

Comment by DRogers333
2007-02-26 21:06:17

Hate to say it, but it IS a beautiful location next to a river… with the mills gone, a lot of these areas have cleaner air than me… guess I’ve been in the SoCal desert too long from my Midwest birthplace….

 
 
Comment by Richie
2007-02-26 06:47:37

You know the condo craze has gone too far when $500,000+ condos are for sale in Bethlehem, PA: Link here. The owner/flipper is a Realtor too!

Yes, all I’ved dreamed of is moving into a condo where all the HVAC ducts are visible to me. That’s worth the price alone. If they built it any cheaper, they would have a standing rotary fan in the room. Don’t laugh, the upgrade would be the rotating fan.

-Richie

 
Comment by peter m
2007-02-26 07:12:35

LA POS properties for $500.000-$700,000 anyone?

It looks like all those POS LA 500-600 sq ft 70-80 yr old outhouse shacks which got half-million $loans from the genious lenders are starting to show up in the LA foreclosure/NOD lists like raw sewage in Santa Monica Bay after a bad storm.

http://www.foreclosure.com/listingdetails.html?st=CA&cno=037&z=91331&listingid=6007603

http://www.foreclosure.com/listingdetails.html?st=CA&tab=a&cno=037&z=91331&pg=5&listingid=5606516

http://www.foreclosure.com/listingdetails.html?st=CA&tab=a&cno=037&z=91331&listingid=5993263

These are properties located in the heavily immigrant-impacted community of Pacoima,which is located in the northeast part of the San fernando valley. Anyone familiar with LA county knows this part of The SFV from the 405 east to the 5 fwy anf from Sherman way all way to Sylmar is the sewer zone section of LA, totally overrun by illegals.

Look at the defaulted loan amts on the above homes in this ass-end part of LA? The LA Subprime market was on a hallucinegenic speed/coke binge last few years and will go into OD mode/painful withdraws.

Comment by chilidoggg
2007-02-26 19:47:04

Anyone familiar with [Southern California] knows this part… from the [405/210 junction] all the way to [405/5 junction] is the sewer zone.

 
 
Comment by Dan
2007-02-26 07:14:58

One of my favorite FB sites:

http://www.melbourne-palm-bay-living.com/home-for-sale-in-florida.html

“This home for sale in Florida should be completed and ready to move in by June or July of 2006.”
“Update as of 5-01-06: Your new home on lot #10 at 836 Tavernier Cir NE Palm Bay Florida is now approximately six weeks from completion.”
“Brevard County, Palm Bay FL Home For Sale Update as of 10-09-06″
“Hurry, before it’s gone!”
…..Hmmm I think Feb. has come and gone; but the house remains.

 
Comment by Chrisinpnw
2007-02-26 07:38:20

Yield on the 10 year is important, if rates ever break 5.24 %, you might bet the next wave of interest rate trouble in housing land. They have to keep rates lower on the long end to ward off more interest trouble, however, gold and the dollar falling puts pressure on the Fed to raise rates on the Short end, which would could put a “rubberband” type of effect on the yield curve. I’m watching this, would be the “check mate” scenario against the Fed’s policies over the last 4 years.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tnx&p=W&st=1990-10-01&id=p49406901519&a=4879607&listNum=4

 
Comment by Boombust
2007-02-26 07:43:47

Even the maestro (Greenspan) is now murmuring about a recession this year…

Comment by palmetto
2007-02-26 08:04:24

I don’t know why anyone gives any credence to the pronouncements of this repulsive creep. First, he lies like a rug, then he games the system, then he lies some more and then, when he’s staring up the butthole of the obvious, he states the obvious. Alan Greenspan in a nutshell. Or is that a nutsack?

 
Comment by Patriotic Bear
2007-02-26 10:53:34

That jerk is covering his rear.

 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2007-02-26 08:30:38

“More sharks smell blood”

http://bakersfieldbubble.blogspot.com/

 
Comment by nhz
2007-02-26 08:41:05

housing tidbit from the Netherlands:

easy lending still in full force: starting this year there was a new rule from the financial authorities which recommends that banks do not offer mortgages over 4.5x income, and if they do they have to file there reasons to do so (e.g. parent piggy bank, excellent career prospects etc.). After two months it is clear (as expected …) that the banks are totally ignoring the new rule, most of the new mortgages are still 6x income or more.

When playing by the rule a median Dutch income (EUR 30K) would get one a maximum mortgage of EUR 145K; in 95% of the Netherlands it is impossible to find a home for that price (although in some remote places you can maybe find a small apartment). At 6x income, which is routinely offered to starters with higher education, the maximum mortgage is nearly 200K which in most parts of the country is barely enough to buy a (old/small) starter home. Median home price in Netherlands is currently EUR 247K = 8x median income.

 
Comment by sm_landlord
2007-02-26 08:49:51

REITS vs. Stocks. Are we at an inflection point?

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20070223.htm?A

 
Comment by crazy canuck
2007-02-26 10:55:51

http://tinyurl.com/2cseyf
It really is different here, see who is my new realestate person(realtwhore) is!

Comment by crazy canuck
2007-02-26 14:40:47

Guaging by no replies can I assume you believe it is Ok for a premier to help lockout the first time buyer(minority) so he can add wealth to his majority(baby boomers ) to buy votes.

 
 
Comment by sevenofnine
2007-02-26 10:59:57

Don’t know if this was posted yet:
Greenspan warns of recession risk
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17343814/

Comment by crazy canuck
2007-02-26 11:06:46

http://tinyurl.com/2cseyf
It really is different here, look who is my new realestate person(realtwhore)

 
Comment by crazy canuck
2007-02-26 11:17:13

http://tinyurl.com/2cseyf

Look at who my new real estate person(realwhore) is, it really is different here

 
Comment by crazy canuck
2007-02-26 11:18:37

test

 
 
Comment by Joh5n
2007-02-26 11:22:15

WWJD? Buy a house, apparently.

http://news.bbc.co.uk2/hi/middle_east/6397373.stm

From an article about a film being hyped by James Cameron (he says he’s found Jesus’ tomb in a Jerusalem neighborhood…):

“Local residents said they were pleased with the attention the tomb has drawn.

‘It will mean our house prices will go up because Christians will want to live here,’ one woman said.”

Yep. It’s *that* bad.

 
Comment by Homoaner
2007-02-26 12:26:57

You remember the idiot schoolteacher who bought the Mary Tyler Moore house in Minneapolis? He paid $1.1 million, then poured a fortune into rehabbing and updating it. Well, they’ve been touting it like crazy in the local media since last summer, and they *still* haven’t found a buyer.

Mary never lived here … but you could for $3.6 million
With nearly 10,000 square feet, the house at 2104 Kenwood Pkwy. offers enough room for a family, in-laws, servants and guests. Plus it has the Mary Tyler Moore mystique. Will it find a buyer?
http://www.startribune.com/417/story/1018551.html

Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2007-02-26 19:37:38

But they will only get this price if they have a giant metal “M” on the wall? Do they know that? Should we tell them or would that be bubble-enabling? :D

 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
 
 
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