“Buyers Are Sitting On Their Hands” In Florida
The Tampa Tribune reports from Florida. “Scores of gamblers gathered at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino on Saturday, but the name of the game was real estate, not roulette. Alan Westfall was betting he could break even on a six-bedroom home he invested in right before the local market went south last year. He hadn’t counted on a swarm of bidders betting on a fire sale.”
“Of the first 10 properties on the auction block, Westfall said his two properties drew the highest bids - $215,000 for a 3,000-square-foot home in the golf course community of Heritage Isles; another $215,000 for 56 acres in Riverview.”
“‘That doesn’t make us feel any better,’ he said. Not when the mortgage on the Heritage Isles place is $150,000 more than that. Not when he was looking for $2.5 million on the parcel in Riverview. Westfall, like many other hopeful sellers at the mass auction, didn’t accept the offers.’
The St Petersburg Times. “Within a few hours, the ‘All In Mega Auction’ was over, and 26 of the 46 properties had winning offers. Judging by some of the offers, it appeared that the festive casino setting and large turnout didn’t do much to offset the current buyer’s market.”
“The winning bid on a three-bedroom Sarasota home? $50,000. An 1,800-square-foot Bradenton home with a pool? $100,000. A two-bedroom house in West Palm Beach’s historic Flamingo Park? $115,000.”
“Angelina Lochridge, who hoped to sell her parents’ home in Valrico and watched the live bidding online, was disappointed with the top offer of $235,000. The home was originally listed at $324,000. ‘I think we’ll look into doing a lease option or renting,’ she said. ‘We’re not going to sell at a loss.’”
The Sun Sentinel. “The sluggish housing market plays no favorites. Miami Dolphins legend Dan Marino has reduced the price on his Weston home to $14.5 million from $15.9 million, his listing agent, Tim Elmes, confirmed. ‘He’s had no activity, and he wants to be more aggressive,’ said Elmes.”
“Marino’s palace has been on the market for almost two years. A custom home Marino and his family had built in Parkland also is on the market. Marino’s business manager, Ralph Stringer, said his client is selling the Parkland digs because the Weston home is taking so long to sell.”
“‘Maybe if you could find a buyer for the Weston home, he could take the Parkland home off the market,’ Stringer said last week with a chuckle.”
“The real estate auction frenzy continues, with one investor trying to unload a pair of penthouse condominiums in the Oasis development on Singer Island. Michael LaVallie bought the two condos in 2004, then watched the market cool considerably.”
“‘Buyers are sitting on their hands, and sellers are saying they’re not going to change the price,’ JP King Auction Co. spokesman Carl Carter said. ‘What an auction does is establish a market price.’
“Carter said he expects this auction to define the price ceiling for Singer Island condos.”
The Orlando Sentinel. “Last year, even as storm clouds gathered over the local and national housing markets, developers marched into Orlando City Hall with plans to add more than 1,600 condominium units to a downtown already brimming with thousands of condos, real or imagined.”
“As a result, the city center has now attracted more than 40 high-rise and midrise condo projects going back eight years. Yet nearly two-thirds of the towers still exist on paper only.”
“The developer of Eola Place, a 510-unit condominium in the southeast area of downtown, said last month that it was putting the two-tower project on hold after having spent thousands of dollars trying to generate sales for a 196-unit first phase.”
“John Bahng, JLJ’s president, said the project’s sales center on East Central Boulevard has been shut down. Of the sagging market, he said simply: ‘It is what it is.’”
The News Press. “Despite the drop in Cape Coral home sales, developers and builders continue to build multifamily condominium buildings in the city.”
“‘It is a cycle and the market will come back; it might take two or three years,’ said Robbie Lee, a Cape Coral developer. ‘I have projects that will take two to three years to get permitting approval. The market will be there.’”
“For now, however, real estate sales associates aren’t optimistic about the market. ‘No one is buying,’ said Realtor Ken Worthington.”
“As of Thursday, the MLS, which developers don’t usually use but real estate sales people do, listed 1,092 condos for sale in Cape Coral. In the last six months, 97 sold.”
“‘It is just difficult to sell anything,’ said broker associate Scott Marinelli. ‘This is a buyer’s market.’”
The Palm Beach Post. “The inventory of existing homes, which was up 71 percent Palm Beach County alone in December, may grow as ‘re-listers’ - people who couldn’t sell in 2006 - are likely to try again in the spring. And analysts expect a further uptick in the region’s new-foreclosure filings as high-risk borrowers continue to default on loans and lenders tighten credit standards.”
“Many of those borrowers were investors who artificially pumped up demand, and prices. ‘Builders ramped up production to meet surging demand during the housing boom,’ said Michael Larson, a real estate analyst in Jupiter. ‘But it turns out a big chunk of that demand surge wasn’t ‘real’ demand.’”
“Further proof the local housing boom has gone bust: Palm Beach County buyers closed on only 976 new homes in the fourth quarter of 2006, down drastically from its boom-time peak of 3,123 closings in the third quarter of 2003, MetroStudy said.”
“Credit Suisse estimates that investors accounted for 20 percent of all U.S. home sales in 2005. That percentage was even higher in South Florida, analysts believe, and the steep and speedy decline in new-home sales in Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast seems to support that position.”
“With no ‘end user’ in sight, these investors wound up with units they couldn’t sell, and sometimes with units they couldn’t afford to carry.”
“‘Investors were a builder’s dream during the boom,’ said Jim Sahnger, vice president of Palm Beach Financial Network. ‘Unfortunately, everyone has to wake up sometime. Home prices, although declining, are still too high … particularly when taxes and insurance are considered.’”
“The surge of foreclosures sweeping the nation is testament to that sad fact. New foreclosures in St. Lucie County surged an eye-popping 337 percent in January.”
“‘Hundreds of units that were snapped up by investors are now sitting empty, looking for buyers,’ said analyst Larson. ‘Builders are reacting by slashing production and piling on the incentives to clear the unsold inventory off their books.’”
“On the Treasure Coast, it will take a good deal of great deals to make a dent in housing inventory. In St. Lucie County, the blistering pace of new-home construction has resulted in an astounding 19.1-month supply of new homes, according to MetroStudy. That’s just slightly off from the record, a 21.4-month supply, set in the previous quarter.”
“Despite strong support for the county’s limited-growth regulations, the number of finished vacant homes in Martin County grew during the fourth quarter because of a surge in speculative buying in 2006, said MetroStudy’s Bradley Hunter. The 391 finished vacant homes represent a 12.1-month supply, he said.”
“‘The number of finished vacant units is at the highest level reported in recent years, despite rentals of a large number of investor-purchased homes,’ Hunter said.”
‘What an auction does is establish a market price.’
That quote would’ve been my vote for the title of this posting. The faster people realize that small truth, the faster this mess will get sorted out.
It nobodies buying at the price your asking. But they are at an auction price the auction price IS the market price.
Why do sellers have such a hard time accepting this?
I personally feel sellers deep down in the hearts know an auction price is the market price but they also know that they can’t sell at that price because they don’t have enough equity (or cash) to make up the difference.
And by delaying the inevitable, they dig themselves an even deeper hole. There is nothing like sitting on empty properties that are draining your wallet each month while you hope and pray for something that will never happen.
I’ve been checking asking prices against the appraisal site for what people paid and a lot of it is just plain greed. Some bought 2 or 3 years ago and they’re trying to make a
$150,000 to 200,000 profit. They better wake up, because the longer someone holds out the less they’ll get in the end. What was a small profit could end up being a huge loss.
Auction prices tell me nothing. If buyer’s remorse sets in or winning bidder doesn’t get his “0″ per cent financing, the 50%cancellation rate will make today’s winning auction prices seem high.
Can’t wait for these idiots to be back at their former jobs of bar-tending and pole-dancing!
If the winning bidder decides not to pay they lose the 10k they brought in for the opportunity to bid. Then the second highest bidder has the option to buy.
Most people won’t walk away from 10k. That’s what makes an auction work.
“Auction prices tell me nothing. If buyer’s remorse sets in or winning bidder doesn’t get his “0″ per cent financing, the 50%cancellation rate will make today’s winning auction prices seem high. “
Agreed!!!. The true market price only occurs once the money and property have been exchanged. “
When I bought a town house at auction in 1992 is was run by the big company J.P. King. Everyone had to pay 10% of the auctioned amount right then and there, the rest within 30 days. No one backed out period. It just depends on how the auction is run. Mind was the real deal, no reserves. Thus far it’s early in the game, with mostly fake auctions . (high reserves, seller right to back out etc.)
It seems to me that an auction would produce at best the market price, maybe less. There is a relatively small pool of buyers who would be willing to buy a property in this way. I wouldn’t, for example.
An auction may be a way to sell a property FAST, but I would guess that a seller can get at least a somewhat better price by selling the conventional way, if they reduce the price to say 5-10% below recent comps. Too many sellers seem unwilling or unable to do this, but I would imagine they end up with an even lower sale price if they put it up for auction.
jbunniii,
I don’t understand your logic. Why do you think an auction brings in a lower price? In an auction you’re gathering qualified buyers (it generally takes 10,000 in cash just to walk in the door) and they’re competing to buy a property?
Or you can sit on the holding costs and let the property eat you alive.
I’m with JB. Anybody buying at an auction is looking for a steal if only to compensate for the unknowns of a property.
I read the full article yesterday in the Sunday paper. It seems that after the auction, buyers and sellers got together and started making some deals. The point of the story seemed to be that the auction is more of a marketing device than an actual selling method. In other words, it gives the properties broad exposure. So, while nothing might sell in the actual auction, afterwards some properties do sell as a result of the exposure.
We auctioned a property once, in South Florida in 2000. We were desperate to get out of a HOA. The auction was a failure in that it did not produce a sale. But, I do think it did create interest and the property did indeed sell shortly after, to a buyer brought by a realtor who was aware of the auction.
the reason auctions generally go for less is that buyers usually require a discount for the unknown, or said another way, “lack of knowledge”. IE, even though there may be many qualified and motivated buyers in a room, they usually have not had a chance to thoroughly inspect the property in the same manner they would have if the property was for sale by standard methods.
So, you might know what a 4 bedroom in a particular neighborhood for a particular lot size recently sold for, but if all you have to go off is the auctioneers slick pamphlet, aren’t you going to offer less to compensate for the fact there might be mold, dry-rot, vermin, etc. etc. etc…
Plus if you’re at an auction chances are you are a pro looking to fix and resell /rent. To do that you have to buy cheaper than someone looking for a home.
right, but I would like to add that the intent of the original thoughts on auctions being “the market” is directionally correct.
While auction prices might be low by 10-20% to what a seller MIGHT get via traditional means, they are still indicative of market realities.
Again, if nobody is buying except the fix and resell crowd what is the true market price?
My personal advise to anybody considering an auction is to do it early in the cycle. Because early in a downturn you’ll get a better price. As more competition comes on line it will push price down further and further.
Again, if nobody is buying except the fix and resell crowd what is the true market price?
There are still end users buying if the property is priced to sell. The only contention I am making is that people buying at auctions will demand even greater discounts than the end users, for all the reasons identified above.
Now that there is no market appreciation, the only way that flippers can make any money from the transaction is to buy at a steep discount even compared with what end users are willing to pay. Of course it’s still a gamble, as the property may be in terrible shape, and there’s little to no opportunity to inspect it prior to bidding.
“an auction would produce at best the market price, maybe less.”
It depends. I once went to an auction at a car repair shop that had gone out of business. I witnessed a case of regular motor oil sell for twice its normal retail price, presumably because the bidders got caught up emotionally and didn’t want to be outbid. It defied logic and yet this same thing happens at other types of auctions all the time.
Some buyers at r/e auctions control their emotions, buy with a huge margin of safety and refuse to overpay. Others, however, want to ‘win’ the auction. So it can really go either way.
When the RE market is hot, an auction can bring the seller a HIGHER bid than he/she might otherwise get through the normal listing process. In a down market, like now, the opposite is usually true.
I think auctions accentuate the price swing either way.
I wish they would start holding auctions here in Arizona. I can’t believe the lack of seller’s reality in pricing their homes. Too much California influence.
http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/84670
Of the sagging market, he said simply: ‘It is what it is.’”
You know, I’m not quite sure how statements like, “It is what it is.” make it into popular culture.
I guess some popular entertainment figure du jour says it first, and then it gets rolling.
I for one, am so tired of hearing the phrase “it is what it is”
I hope “it is what it is”, passes on into the hallowed halls of such long forgotton classics as Dy-NO-MITE, sock it to me, groovy, sit on it, Aaaay, nanu nanu, etc.
Does anyone know what the wikipedia term for a catch phrase like this is that pretty much sweeps the nation. I remember a few weeks back a poster enlightened another poster as to what a straw man argument is. We have a lot of really knowledgeable people in Ben’s community. Thanks.
Zane
I’m not a fan of hip-hop jargon either, but as a member of Generation X, I am going to “represent” and say “sh_t happens.”
At least “it is what it is” is grammatically correct and means what it says. It’s a thousand times less grating than most business catchphrases (”let’s dialog” or “increase your comfort level,” anyone?) or for that matter many other cliches such as “at the end of the day” or “at this point in time.”
Then there are ridiculously irritating phrases like “The O.C.” I never heard anyone call it that until some goober decided to give a TV show that name, and now half the world refers to it that way.
Does anyone know what the wikipedia term for a catch phrase like this is that pretty much sweeps the nation.
Richard Dawkins introduced the word “meme” as a generalization of this concept. Of course it is the height of self-parody to introduce a stupid nonce-word to name the phenomenon in question.
I don’t like Dawkins very much; despite being a staunch atheist, I found his books on atheism to be extremely poorly written and incompetently argued.
Can we please get rid of “24/7?”
Am I the only one who goes through cerebral rage when he sees the signs that tout “24/7/365″? DAMMIT IF YOU WANNA GO THERE IT SHOULD SAY “24/7/52!”
Quitting smoking sucks.
“‘That doesn’t make us feel any better,’ he said. Not when the mortgage on the Heritage Isles place is $150,000 more than that….”
Faster. Faster. Faster — you little hamster serf!
Real estate is not about your “feelings” either, save that for your therapist.
No. It is all about your feelings. Remember a house is like a trophy and when you get one, or two, it feels like you accomplished something.
Jeez, I just thought how pathetic people’s lives must be if buying an overpriced house feels like accomplishment to them.
Interesting….I was wondering if we would hear the results from this auction. As quoted ..’When the spring selling season starts there will be even more inventory’ , 20% of houses in 2005 were speculators. probably much higher….
exactly, hardly scientific, but we have new signs going up all over the place, and a lot of rent or sale signs also… and we are just looking at the SFH, I can not imagine what some of the condo buildings are like…
My friend just rented a condo in ft myers and I went over his place friday evening to check it out. Amazingly the owner paid 300k and is renting to him for $900. The pluses for him are plenty of parking and no neighbors. Out of the 80 or so units in this place there were about 6 or 8 lights on.
Your friend’s landlord must be about $1300 in the red each month - assuming 30 year fixed mortgage (silly assumption, I suppose), taxes, ins.
I wonder how long the landlord will be able to hang on to the property. If the owner hands the keys to the bank, does the bank have to honor your freind’s lease?
if the landord gets foreclosed on, the renter may be able to squeaze a few free months of free-living… enough to compensate for the hassle of having to move.
This can’t help:
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/localnews/content/local_news/epaper/2007/02/26/s1a_CRIMESTATS_0226.html
Palm Beach County crime up 11%, after a 26% gain the prior year.
Ah, the natives are getting restless.
‘We’re not going to sell at a loss.’
No, you’re not! (going to sell, that is)
‘We’re not going to sell at a loss.’
NO! We’re going to sell at a profit in 35 years. In the meantime, we will have paid hundreds of thousands of dollars in interest so we can “break even.” I love suckers!!!
I’m still calling an ‘09 recovery…but after a 40 or 50% haircut, it will take at minimum 15 years in a normal market to bring peak boom prices back.
Just because you sell at a profit in 35 years doesn’t mean you actually made money. Adjust for inflation and you’ll probabaly still lose.
“Just because you sell at a profit in 35 years doesn’t mean you actually made money. Adjust for inflation and you’ll probabaly still lose.”
That’s my point. Someone who buys a $400K house will have paid $440,000 in interest in 30 years. The house will NOT be worth $840K more than likely. It’s a losing proposition. Lose $150K now or lose $400K over the years.
“The house will NOT be worth $840K more than likely. ”
Most places more than double in 30 years. Simply look at any 30 year period and you will see that.
jtcc, you would be right about past 30-year periods. The present housing run-up has been exceptional, and I am not sure that housing prices in 2037 will be double what they are today, even in nominal dollars.
“The present housing run-up has been exceptional, and I am not sure that housing prices in 2037 will be double what they are today, even in nominal dollars. ”
And worse yet, we won’t be looking at 2005 dollars. That’s when this fellow bought his “great investment.”
I know its hard to imagine forward, thats why you have to look back. History repeats itself over and over and although this bubble were in now seems crazy, and it is but to doubt that properties and everthing else for that matter wont be double at a minimum is just very egocentrical and extremly shortsighted.
Most places more than double in 30 years. Simply look at any 30 year period and you will see that.
That’s not all that impressive, considering that 3% annual inflation multiplies prices by 2.5 after 30 years.
And by then, all the babyboomers will be deed. What will happen to prices then?
I’m still calling an ‘09 recovery…
Problem is that demographic factors turn real ugly in 2010, so just when you think everything might stabilize… it won’t.
Just like Japan… Give us 15 years to find bottom.
The demographic factors are of long-term concern to me as well. Say you want to jump into the market in 2009 because prices start to look good. With boomers retiring in increasing numbers and selling homes to free up equity and move to retirement locations with cheaper costs of living, who does that leave the buying to? 20 somethings who are increasingly indebted with school loans. Real estate in many areas could experience a long, slow decline due simply to demographic factors even once the bubble-premium has been factored out.
Unforunately, most people only pay attention to things that support what they want to believe. This fellow, like most other sellers, has filtered out all the other voices and only hears the chants of David Lereah telling him that we’ve had a soft landing, and price appreciation will soon begin again.
He and other sellers will have to be slapped hard and often before they finally get it.
Of course not! Never take a loss on real estate because it always goes up.
Here is a novel idea rent it out. let some one pay your bills while you get rich. Hey, its not like every other screwed seller on your block is trying the same thing.
It’s all laid out for you in my new book, “flippers to dippers - how to make money when your drowning in debt.” Only available by email at this time due to a temporary real estate cash flow mismatch (covered on the first page).
It took 80 years for some of those ’20s Miami condo sales to turn around positive.
Interesting charts on the market in south Florida…Miami Beach has a 4.2 year supply of condos and house at this stage!
http://ewm.com/trendx/report.asp
No wonder everyone in Florida is so old…they were waiting for the market to turn before they died.
“‘I think we’ll look into doing a lease option or renting,’ she said. ‘We’re not going to sell at a loss.’”
“4106 Robin Way…
Sales price in May 2006: $270,000
High bid: $235,000″
I honestly think that she was lucky to get a $235K offer, having purchased in Florida in ‘06 for $270K.
“Marino’s palace has been on the market for almost two years….”
Going long, huh?
If he couldn’t sell it at the peak of the bubble….how the hell does he think it will sell now?
he will throw in a month supply of nutri system with the deal
Actually he’s going deep into a corner.
“The winning bid on a three-bedroom Sarasota home? $50,000. An 1,800-square-foot Bradenton home with a pool? $100,000. A two-bedroom house in West Palm Beach’s historic Flamingo Park? $115,000.”
Oh my! That is just awful. And some posters on this site think they are low-ballers. 50K in Sarasota is simply mindblowing.
Awful in a good way, though
“What an auction does is establish a market price”
I like these market prices. Send `em up to PA.
“Many of those borrowers were investors who artificially pumped up demand, and prices”.
how is this not unlike socal?
Actually, no it’s NOT mindblowing.
My grandfather passed away in 1995 and we sold his small, tidy 3bdr/2ba house in Kensington Park, Sarasota for $ 89,000.
That’s all it was worth then…….and that’s close to what it’s worth RIGHT NOW.
Once we do away with this smug notion that “Sarasota is different” and once we remove the “speculative puffery” and “overnight gentrification” that was created by greedy, ve$ted interests we will see that Sarasota is what it is…
Sarasota will someday go back to being a sleepy little seaside town that people can retire to on the cheap.. Maybe not as cheap as before….but affordability will return in 5-8 years after The Bust.
oh my gosh, my grandfather lived in Kensington Park also. He passed away in 1999. I have lived in Sarasota since 1981. My Mom sold my grandfathers place for about what your grandfathers place sold for.
LOL-
It’s a small world.
Another ancedote:
Buddy of mine got a job at Tropicana in junior management around 1999-2000…..
Anyhow, he bought a four bedroom / 2 bath house for around $160,000 at the same time.
Fast forward to 2003-2004; he got laid off when Tropicana scaled back and moved corporate people out of Florida….Lo and behold, when it came time for him to sell he cashed out and sold his house for around $ 320,000…. ” $ chick-ching $ “….siad to hell with working, being laid-off, etc. Went out and bought a $ 80,000 sailboat, put the rest of his money in CD’s / savings, learned to sail and set out to tour the carribbean.
Last I heard he was in Costa Rica tending bar and livin’ the good life on his boat with his new girlfriend.
Some people made out really good down here and ca$hed out at the peak of the insanity. Good for them….
What a great story. That sounds like one guy who’s not going to face the reaper with many regrets.
You can do this with $80,000? (320 - 160 - 80)
There’s an idea for a weekend topic. How much do you need to retire as a pirate…
The 2 bedroom house in Flamingo park caught my attention. I’ve been through there quite a bit, and briefly looked into it. But the 3 bedroom houses easily list for 400-500k (most higher, with the nicely fixed-up ones listing around 700k), with dilapidated ones potentially less. I don’t know which 2 bedroom home this was, but even if it is next to the train tracks, that would be at least a 70% reduction.
I’m shocked that the casino auction didn’t bring out all the buyers in this “buyers’ market” and turn this thing around. And to think, I thought we’d hit bottom after just a few short months of minor if any price declines. It is so funny to watch these folks who have literally convinced themselves that the RE market just hit a minor speedbump, and that all will be well real soon. Call me in a decade when all of the make belief equity has worked itself out of the market and all of these fools are living in homeless shelters.
So much for all the retirees buying up homes in FL:
Making the Return Trip: Elderly Head Back North
“For the first time since the Depression, more Americans ages 75 and older have been leaving the South than moving there, according to a New York Times analysis of Census Bureau data.
“The reversal appears to be driven in part by older people who retired to the South in their 60s, but decided to return home to their children and grandchildren in the Northeast, Midwest and West after losing spouses or becoming less mobile.
“A stream of elderly transplants leaving Florida was detected by sociologists two decades ago, including so-called half-backs, who stopped short of returning to their home states and settled elsewhere in the South. What is new is the growth in the number of people leaving the region entirely and the dimension of the migration.”
Woohoo! Maybe the Carolinas won’t be overrun so soon after all.
define “south”
NC is all I hear about for destinantion
They did define it in the article. “NC” is definitely counted as southern for the purposes of this report.
True story: My mother’s mother retired to Florida after living in Buffalo for most of her life. The plan was that Grandma would stay with her sister while looking for a place of her own.
But nothing ever seemed to please Grandma as much as crashing at the sister’s place. Then there was a BIG fight. Sister kicked Grandma out.
And up to Pennsylvania came Grandma. My family was “expected” to take her in, but my mother, sensing that this would not be a good thing, found a nearby apartment for her. (Did I mention that Grandma was hard to live with? My mother STILL has tales to tell from her growing-up years.)
I’m told that Grandma and my mother did reconcile before Grandma died in 1980, but it seems like is was fragile thing at best.
For truth in real estate statistics, we need to re-categorize the real South as the “South ex-Florida” and FL can be its own region. There is a huge relocation boom still underway here in Greenville SC. Actually makes me feel ill how crowded it’s getting here and the recently arriving transplants/nomads are weird. This place was pretty much perfect in every way about 3-4 years ago…
Hope you love it as we are helping them pack.
LOL, dime. That’s how we’ve been feeling about Florida these past few years.
Yep, New York seniors complain about paying taxes for schools since many of their children have left the state. So they move to Florida, which has no local income tax.
The State of Florida gets a windfall, with property and sales taxes but no school children or other public services required.
But when these seniors get frail, they find the State of Florida isn’t about to pay back their cash cow. So they come back here and get services on my dime.
A huge share of the massive NY tax burden is Red State freeloading. Lots of people who are ill also come up here for Medicaid-financed treatment. And a huge share of the massive NYC tax burden is upstate.
That is because the downstate financiers managed to push the whole “free trade” idea which destroyed upstate businesses. But don’t worry, downstate will find out that its even easier to outsource financial business then it is to outsource steel or autos. And without Wall Street what does New York City have?
A lot of billionaires in Manhattan, and a few hipsters and a lot of people on scraping by everywhere else.
Hey wait a minute, that’s what we have now! Everything else was was outsourced or automated years ago, with manufacturing gone by the 1970s and “pink collar” jobs removed by the mid-1990s. It happened here long ago.
“Mrs. Bialek said she did not miss “all those silly accidents with old ladies who don’t know how to drive,”"
….and neither will those silly business owners who find the old fart’s road boat (’81 Caddy) in the middle of their building…..nor the silly pedestrians in ICU who were run over while standing on the sidewalk……
Few states have the political balls to yank their DL, so you have two ton unguided missles on the highway.
Oh thank God!
Somebody please take our seniors! I will pay an excise tax for each senior who moves to anywhere north of Orlando.
I really don’t mind that they live here, but there should be some basic rules.
1) You are never, ever to get on I95/TPKE during rush hour. EVER.
2) You are never to get in the left lane of any highway.
3) You are never to pay for anything, anywhere, with change.
4) You are never to buy condos in the middle of the city and then complain that the club next door is too noisy.
5) You are not to go to the pool in said trendy condo location and complain about the “skimpy bathing suits”.
6) Never, EVER, never stop in the middle of a street where there is no stop sign, and no light because you don’t know where you are going. Just drive along, when you see your turn make a U-turn and come back to it. You have ALL DAY.
7) And most importantly, stop your bit**ing about S. FL!! If you don’t like it here, move the he** back where you came from. I don’t want to hear how this area has “no morals” and “people are not bright” or how “nobody works hard here”. That’s the way it is (for the morals), and I know plenty of very bright hardworking people here. Go back to your frozen tundra and screw up there traffic if you don’t like it.
you forgot a few things,
A. you are not allowed to wear skimpy bathing suits, period.
b. If you have more hair on your back then on your head, wear a shirt.
c. If you get into the 10 items or less line, you are not allowed to argue with the cashier about coupons or specials.
d. my dog wants to eat your small yapping dog wanna be, please keep him on a leash, or I will let him.
Skimpy bathing suits must be decided on a case by case basis. If you retired, yes, no skimpy suits ever. However, if your a 20YO supermodel, we might be able to make an exception.
skimpy bathing suits? how many old ladies in FL look like Helen Mirren looked at the Oscars? Man, if I were her son, I’d have a serious Oedipus complex.
And a few others:
* Transmissions have markers on them. Reverse usually has a little “R.” Drive a little “D.” They are not interchangeable.
* Get an eye test every year. You might think you are wonder woman, but your dead husband knew for years that you couldn’t see when you kept asking if your bu** was fat.
*Early bird specials at restaurants work both ways. They wanted you to get into the restaurant early because they were hoping that you would LEAVE EARLY. If you want to visit while 300 people that have jobs are waiting to get into the restaurant, go home and do it.
* Don’t get that look on your face when someone half your age orders a drink before dinner (since you’ll still be there-see above). Alcohol does come in things other than Nyquil.
* The triangular shape on your Mercedes hood is not a sighting mechanism and sometimes people in a crosswalk are going across the street WITH the light.
“decided to return home to the Northeast, Midwest and West after losing spouses or becoming less mobile.”
Yep, that’s my mom. She went from Florida to Omaha, NE just for that reason.
Three of those in our extended family. Didn’t know it was a trend. They all lost spouses and wanted to be near kids.
What people don’t understand is that many folks make major moves due to things that have nothing to do with real estate prices. The MSM is MIA on that one.
Had a neighbor do exactly this, last year. All the way back to Minnesota.
‘Westfall, like many other hopeful sellers at the mass auction, didn’t accept the offers.’
The obscure we see eventually. The completely obvious, it seems, takes longer.
““Scores of gamblers gathered at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino on Saturday, but the name of the game was real estate, not roulette.”
So fitting that the auction was held in a casino. Later in the year, auctions will probably move to the local insane asylum.
Whoa Insane asylum too funny.
50k for a 3B in Sarasota sounds about right
rotfl
How long until people stop showing up in auctions? How long until absolute auctions are required to get attendance?
Florida has years of inventory! This is only going to get worse there. And… the defaults on Florida mortgages will tighten up the entire mortgage market. All of those “primary residence” flips are going to muck things up pretty badly.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Hey, I want to go to them, but they always hold them on days I have plans… Grab a nice adult beverage, sit down and watch, perhaps even heckle… ok, I wouldn’t actually heckle but it is fun to think about.
If you linked on the St. Pete Times article, one of the successful bidders was an exuberantly-brainwashed 22-year-old kid starting his career in “real estate investing.” He bid $195k for a house in Clearwater, and commented that the available deals were “surreal.”
As long as 22-year-olds are enabled by the lending industry in this manner, I will not be buying.
Not when he was looking for $2.5 million on the parcel in Riverview.”
and only got 215,000
was the 2.5 the wishing price or what he paid previously ?
less than 10 % of cost
wow…………..
I think Marinos asking price has a typo. One too many zeros
He will never sell at that price.I hope they take those cheesy nutrisystem commerials off the air soon too.
He has a better chance at getting a ring
“…[bid was] 215,000 for 56 acres in Riverview.
…he was looking for $2.5 million on the parcel in Riverview. Westfall, like many other hopeful sellers at the mass auction, didn’t accept the offers.”
If I were the “successful” bidder I’d have sent this rat a bill for market appraisal services. 56 acres of developable land, I’m think $3k in services rendered. This wasn’t an auction it was a fishing expedition.
What an alarming moment for these wannabe sellers. Can you imagine the looks on their faces when the hammer fell and all hope was lost?
Reality meet fantasy. Fantasy meet your new buddy Reality.
“Can you imagine the looks on their faces when the hammer fell and all hope was lost?”
It would be priceless!
From the news press article
“We are performing at the level of three years ago and that was considered a good time,” said Timberline Construction’s Brian Gomer. “I think the buyers are now end users who come here to live.”
In real estate development, an end user is the term for someone who actually buys a home to live in, either as a winter home or as a permanent residence
People buying homes to “actually” live in them, what a concept.
On a lighter note Brian Gomer….. Nuf said
“Within a few hours, the ‘All In Mega Auction’ was over, and 26 of the 46 properties had winning offers”
Anybody catch this ? “OFFERS” the end result will be lower but you can’t make it look like event was complete loss to the press. They should have sprung for the open bar like they do at Barrett Jackson car auctions to loosen up the wallets. BEER ME !
“winning offers” ? what’s a losing offer
If that’s “winning” somebody please label me a loser.
And for your price, a depreciating, overpriced POS directly in the path of the majority of hurricanes to hit the east coast. You will likely never be able to sell this for more then you bought it for, and also will likely have to die in this house to protect your SOH benefits. Also, insurance will contiune to go higher as the hurricanes continue to strike (duh, we are in the middle of hurricane alley).
Don’t “spend” your winnings all in one place. You have LOTS of time to become used to the S. FL lifestyle.
None of those “winning offers” will result in a sale. They could have been bidding in kopecs or pesos or yen. Nothing would have mattered.
“None of those “winning offers” will result in a sale.”
I wonder how many of the “winning offers” were from ringers who put in a fake bid to stop it from being sold for too low a price. It would be nice to see how many of these properties actually changed hands.
Incidentally, a local brokerage firm here in northern Palm Beach County has updated its sales/inventory/pricing stats for the month of January. You can see them here:
http://www.ipre.com/trendg/index.htm
I have also digested them at my blog:
http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/
Suffice it to say, the “March of the Re-listers” I predicted appears to be underway. Inventories are rising again as disappointed sellers who couldn’t sell last year, then pulled their homes from the market around the holidays, give it the old college try again in 2007. We’ll get the national home sales figures in the next two days, of course. But if local trends are any indicator, I think they’ll generally show stagnant sales, stagnant prices, and higher invetories.
whoa that’s nasty considering jan 06 had to sck
Sales continue to fall — Based on the figures reported, sales were down 38.6% YOY in January.
yep, still cleaning up from the hurricane this time last year.
And June isn’t far away…
Mike,
If I am not mistaken we have a 37 month supply of homes correct (22,888/618 = 37.035)? I think we hit 48 months last year and I suspect we will surpass that mark in 2007. How low do prices have to go in order to get to a balanced market of 6 months? Pretty scary thought, unless you rent cheaply like myself.
Yes, you have the inventory calculation correct. South Florida was one of the markets that went the most ballistic on the way up, so it will take longer than many other markets to sort itself out. I expect 2007 will ultimately prove to be another weak year in this area, marked by stable-to-down pricing, elevated inventories, and lackluster sales. There’s just no getting around the fact we need some combination of falling interest rates, a decent economy, rising wages and salaries, and/or falling home prices to make homes affordable once again for “real” buyers. Also, lending standards are a real wildcard. They’re tightening up at the margins now, and if they continue to do so, it’s another problem for a market saturated with inventory.
actually, no scratch that. The sales number I get is 519 in the most recent month. The numbers in the IP chart are so small, that some readings look like others — a 5 is easily mistaken for a 6, for instance. Add up the sales in all the sub-categories (by price range) and you get 519. So you’re looking at just over 44 months of inventory.
Thanks. I wasn’t sure if it was a 5 or 6. Oddly, 37 months of inventory seemed low for the blizzard of For Sale signs around town.
Ahh, that’s more like it. I was afraid we were below 3 years of inventory there for a second. Thought I might have to go snap one up before they are all gone.
DAP,
Sometimes it seems it might just be easier to list the stuff not for sale in some developments (like where I currently live). The list would likely be shorter.
That list wouldn’t fill 1 page!!!
Down in South Florida the arrogant sellers are going to ride this crazy train of declining prices right off the cliff. Everybody, and I mean everybody, around here thinks their home is worth twice its actual value.
It’s going to crush this local economy when it’s all said and done.
I agree, sellers there are taking much longer to surrender to the reality of lower values. There is a combination of arrogance, denial, and belief that their location is “different” because S FL is some kind of paradise.
It goes along with the self-importance mentality that is soaked into the culture there. It is not surprising, but it will be interesting to see how the buyer-vs-seller standoff is affected by it there.
BTW, no offense to anyone still there. My condolences, as I was an inmate at that asylum not long ago….
The asylum is emptying into the Carolinas and GA. lol. You guys should do what Canada is doing to Americans trying to cross the border.
Sadly, it is not yet legal to build fences between states.
With no ‘end user’ in sight, these investors wound up with units they couldn’t sell, and sometimes with units they couldn’t afford to carry.”
This says it all,I can still remember in 1990 in the midst of the last downturn, I heard a quote, I dont remember who said it but it was something like “In the long run a home is only worth the value of living there. So all of these properties being traded up in price will have to settle to a prices that people are willing AND able to pay-gotta be!
“It’s a cycle. It might take two or three years, but we’ll be back on top of the food chain. It’s a mammals’ market right now but we’re confident things will start to turn around probably in a few months.”
– The Dinosaurs
“‘It is just difficult to sell anything,’ said broker associate Scott Marinelli. ‘This is a buyer’s market.’”
WTF? You can’t sell because it’s a buyers market? Hey Scott try lowering the price and get used to it or die on the vine!
We just got back from our Sarasota house hunting trip. WOW! Everything I’ve read on here is so true! We spent most of our time in Lakewood Ranch. Beautiful community, but good Lord, there are tons of houses for sale! Everything from the $400k (now $300k) starter home to multimillion dollar homes sitting empty! Built as an investment! Most of these homes are paying low taxes. Wait till next years tax bill kicks in! Yikes!
The realtor that we met with kept telling us it’s a great time to buy! Lot’s to choose from, prices are lower…… When I asked the realtor why I should pay double what someone paid two years ago, she just said, I understand how you feel. In other words NO COMMENT! We were told time and time again, to just make an offer on homes we liked. Even the new home builders weren’t giving incentives. They said, tell us what you like and make an offer. My husband was wondering what that was all about. There is no possible way to know what fair market value is. You make an offer and they accept, are you getting screwed???? Needless to say, we are going to rent for awhile!!!!
Same thing here in Miami, Gables or Grove…check this link..Miami Beach has a 4.2 years supply of houses and condos..http://ewm.com/trendx/report.asp
Tell the Unrealtor that unless she capitulates and start putting the heavy on her sellers soon she will be eating cat food. 6% of something is better than 6% of nothing.
Here’s another one, here in Bradenton a 13 year old boy was kidnapped by a contractor. It was your old fashioned kidnapping ransom note and all. Thankfully he was recovered and all is well. I thought it was interesting that the kidnapper was a contractor, guess the money is running out. Things are going to get a lot worse here before they get better!
Oops, meant to reply to SKB’s report on the murder of miami realtors. sorry!
And he is an illegal alien. Pack heat in Florida.
Another story just in about realtor’s getting murdered. I think people are taking this to far now. I mean I don’t like them either but do not want them dead over this:
http://www.miamiherald.com/459/story/24688.html
SKB,
It’s official, I will never go back to the FPL. I’m sure he’ll start posting here using my name as well. So I’ll be changing it here soon. I won’t even tempt myself by peeking again:) Hope all goes well for you on your move.
Suspicious Fire claims home:
http://www.miamiherald.com/416/story/24623.html
I wonder how this could help an underwater FB. Insurance (assuming they even have it) will only pay to replace the structure, which these days is only a fraction of the cost that borrowers are paying to buy their shitboxes. The FB will still owe the full mortgage, and now all he has is raw land until he rebuilds, by which time the market will be 20% down or more. Sounds like a stupid strategy to me.
“Westfall, like many other hopeful sellers at the mass auction, didn’t accept the offers. Each invested $2,500 per property toward advertising costs.”
You mean that each SPENT $2,500 per property. I love how rent is wasted, but spending $2,500 per house for an auction where you did not accept any offers is an investment.
My rent is $1450 per month for an apartment that would probably cost at least $500k if it were a condo (2-bedroom, Inner Sunset, San Francisco). An FB would pay at least twice as much for PITI and other costs, for at BEST a non-appreciating “asset.”
I therefore conclude that I am earning at least $1500/month dividend (untaxed even!) by renting instead of owning. That’s an excellent investment return by any standard.
Oh yeah, and it’s physically impossible for me to end up with negative equity, unlike our FB. I sleep very, very well at night.
“‘That doesn’t make us feel any better,’ he said. Not when the mortgage on the Heritage Isles place is $150,000 more than that.”
Heritage Isles community is a HUGH money pit. I cannot imagine anyone wanting to hang on to and pay the carrying costs of an empty house there. The $150,000 loss may be the best scenario, he can write it off on his taxes.
“Humayun and his wife, Faiza, signed the closing papers this summer for a home in Heritage Isles, one of Florida’s 226 communities governed by a Community Development District. Five months later, Humayun is slowly learning that buying the home left him and his family - along with more than 600 other Heritage Isles homeowners - responsible for paying off $1.3-million in annual losses racked up by their CDD.” Some links(2003-2005):
http://www.ccfj.net/CDDhiddencostliving.html
http://www.ccfj.net/CDDHIbusevaluation.html
Alot of the sellers are greedy, but some bought so high that they can’t lower the price. I am trying to buy a condo. When I look up what they paid for it, there is no way that I am going to compound their mistake by overpaying for it. So the condo just sits. I can’t buy it, they can’t sell it. It seems like the bank shouldn’t have let the seller pay $550,000 for a condo that is worth ~$375,000. It amazes me how little realtors know about interest rates, and market value. My realtor told me “Well if you don’t like the house, just sell it in a year or two. You’ll make $100,000!” That’s when I left her in the parking lot.