“An Imbalance Between Supply And Demand”: Las Vegas
The Review Journal reports from Nevada. “John Riordan doesn’t like to use the term ‘bottom out,’ so he’s saying the high-rise luxury condo market in Las Vegas is turning around. Riordan said the buyer demographics at Turnberry Towers are similar to those at Turnberry Place, the four-tower, 780-unit condo community that Turnberry built on Paradise Road. They’re mostly from Southern California and second-home buyers.”
“‘It’s a much younger buyer,’ he said. ‘The market’s much broader. When we first started, the average age was early 60s. Now I’d say the average age is mid-40s. Obviously, when you have a lower age, you’ve got more people, a lot of baby boomers.’”
“Not only has the market turned back up, but buyers are more serious and qualified and they’re here to buy, Riordan said. ‘Our typical buyer is an entrepreneurial person who typically tends to be ahead of the market as far as understanding real estate and getting ahead of the curve,’ he said.”
The LA Times reports on Las Vegas. “In a morphing city where hotels and casinos are built and razed and built again, a massive new development seeks to make a lasting mark on the city’s skyline. Project CityCenter, MGM Mirage’s 76 acres of densely packed condos and hotels may finally put Las Vegas on the architectural map and usher in a cosmopolitan reincarnation of the town better known for kitsch and over-the-top theming.”
“‘This takes the Las Vegas evolution to the next level,’ said Terry Jicinsky, vice president of marketing for the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority.”
“After just two weeks on the market, 90% of the condominium units in one of the project’s condo-hotels have been sold, with prices starting at $1.5 million. ‘People think we’re out there on a curve, but to be original and to be smart is better than to be faux,’ said Tony Dennis, executive vice president of CityCenter’s residential division.”
“Unlike the rest of the Strip, where hiking from one casino to another can be a workout, density at Project CityCenter will rival that of Manhattan. Project CityCenter is just one in the wave of proposals to hit Las Vegas. In all, about 70,000 condo and condo-hotel units are planned and 10,740 are under construction.”
“So far, the market has been unpredictable. Thirteen projects have been canceled or suspended in the last few years, said Brian Gordon, a principal at a Las Vegas-based economic and real estate research firm. ‘We’re facing an imbalance between supply and demand,’ Gordon said.”
“More than 1,350 people have also made reservations for the Vdara Condo Hotel and Veer Towers by putting down as much as $15,000. Jason Fox, a 26-year-old mortgage broker in Las Vegas, has already made a reservation to buy a condo at Veer Towers, even though it doesn’t go on sale until April.”
“‘I’m definitely buying one,’ Fox said. ‘I’m going to get the largest unit they have in the highest floor. I’m always on the phone with the saleslady trying to hook it up.’”
“Fox said he wasn’t scared off by traffic scenarios that show an additional 2.3 new cars for every new room. As it is, getting from one end of the Strip to another can be a bumper-to-bumper, time-wasting endeavor, considering that regional transportation officials estimated that Las Vegas Boulevard reached its auto capacity in the mid-1990s.”
“‘Traffic will be a nightmare, but I’m all about living there,’ Fox said. ‘I like to go out and have fun on the weekends. If I’m going to party down on the Strip, I don’t want to get drunk and get a DUI.’”
“A $7 cab fare will get him anywhere on the Strip, compared with $50 for a trip to the suburbs, Fox said.”
“Although he thinks many projects won’t materialize, he expects the value of the ones that do to accelerate quickly. ‘I am very excited about the Manhattanization of Las Vegas,’ Fox said.”
“The architecture world is taking notice of the headlining designers, including Daniel Libeskind. ‘This will change the notion that Las Vegas is just a place to shop, go to a hotel and be entertained,’ Libeskind said. ‘I think it’s really going to become a metropolis, a city. It’s no longer just an illusion or a nostalgia.’”
‘With housing affordability at levels reminiscent of the 1980s, builders and developers are using a variety of methods to sell homes. A survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders last year revealed nearly 30 percent of larger home builders had cut prices by more than 10 percent. In Las Vegas and elsewhere it’s a buyers’ market—buyers with the ability to purchase now can take their pick.’
‘At Brickwater Condominiums—an all-brick, four-story, 178-unit mid-rise condominium community situated on the South Strip—buyers will find a number of incentives to purchase now.’
“In Las Vegas and elsewhere it’s a buyers’ market—buyers with the ability to purchase now can take their pick”
this is so wrong. it’s not a buyer’s market, even in vegas. houses are plentiful but still way off the mark in term of price. affordability has not budged. it’s funny to see all the house on the market week after week just sitting with their astronomical price tag.
Yes, prices are still out of balance with incomes.
Here, Here! House prices are still way out of touch with reality; ellers are still think buyers will be willing to bet on appreciation.
Ben, don’t know if you have this, sorry if it’s a repost:
http://www.bendweekly.com/Real-Estate/3004.html
Published in Bend, but article covers a lot of stats and data from all over……
I just submitted an extreme lowball offer on a fixer on 5 acres in Washington. I doubt they’ll take it, but I don’t care. Doing my part to force sellers to get religion. I’ll know by early tomorrow.
BB,
Let us know how it goes! I’ve made offers on two houses and was flatly rejected….then one resurfaced with a counter from the seller. I’m letting them stew in their juices for a while. It’s like the vultures say….sooner or later, something dies! LOL
I’d like to get a report too. I’m planning to start seriously looking sometime in late summer. With excellent credit, a 20% down payment in my pocket and no house to sell before I can close, I’ll be expecting serious concession on top of a major league haircut from the seller.
I will definitely report back. Again, I don’t expect them to accept it, but you never know. The home was inherited free and clear recently. The owner took out a tiny HELOC. Mucho bargaining room. If they try to counter, I won’t budge. My offer was take it or leave it. I won’t even waste my time with anything purchased post 2000.
Don’t ever let the seller sleep on your offer. I give them until 9 PM that night, no matter what time of day I present the offer. Been burned by an out of state seller whose agent told me they needed 3 days to review offer.
They shopped it during those 3 days, and I lost it.
You can always resubmit the offer the next morning, at a lower price and really make them sweat. Don’t let any agent talk you into 24 hours, never, ever.
Appreciate the suggestions david. But I’m more than happy to let them think it over. Hey, I have got all the time in the world, and if they shop it around for a few hours, and get a better offer, good for them. There are other properties I have been tracking as well. Keep in mind, the kind of properties I am after, you probably wouldn’t even step foot in. Carpenter ants, termites, electrical hazards, septic issues, asbestos, dry rot, sinking foundations, you name it, I’ll take it. The only thing I stay away from are meth labs. No way. When I bought my last place, people looked at me like I was out of my mind. By the time I was done with it, it shined in all its glory. Where others see garbage, I see potential. Bottom line, there are not a lot of other people in the market for the kind of fixers I like.
You gave them till tomorrow? You should let them know who’s really boss and give them 4hrs to take it or leave it.
vegas baby, vegas
boomin my a>>>>>S
soon to be extinct
They’re mostly from Southern California and second-home buyers.”
vegas link- looks like inventory is boomin
http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/Nevada/LasVegas-Paradise/
Zip showing 24K+
From the MLS (asking price here, mind you)
Single Family
Total Properties 21,062
Average Price $466,236.80
Median Price $339,990.00
Avg Sq Ft 2,144
Price per Sq Ft $203.54
Condos
Total Properties 5,457
Average Price $324,543.30
Median Price $221,000.00
Avg Sq Ft 1,203
Price per Sq Ft $273.93
Census Data
Population: 1,563,282
# of Households: 588,822
Median Price: $136,200.00
Yes, something like 250% run up in housing prices since 2000 census. I sure do want to rush into the Vegas market!
This condo shit cracks me up!!!!
Higher price/foot for condos (suck my ass) than houses.
‘Our typical buyer is an entrepreneurial person who typically tends to be ahead of the market as far as understanding real estate and getting ahead of the curve,’
They try to make it seem like smart savy people buy condos. Condos are by far the shittiest purchase you can make–EVER!!!! They are not even real estate!!!!
The ubershitbags that buy condos this time aroung will be dead before thier POS is worth what they paid for it. If you toss inflation into the mix they will NEVER EVER break even.
Here in Stockton (norcal) the foolish condo buyers that paid 80k in 89′ for new condos had to wait until 01′ to break even. At the height in 05′ this crap was selling for 220k. Even if they sold at the top they took an ass whoopin. 16 years of losing money, landlording and the interest they paid made these a net negative investment.
Cracks me up when they tell me what a great investment they made. “We only paid 80 and sold for 200, we made 120k”. BULLSHIT, If you add up the payments they made (or lost opprotunity cost, if cash-not) and the monthly losses they took (as rents went up so did the HOA, they allways have been as much as the rents) they lost a shitload of money.
Guess what that money they “made” on the sale will buy them today? A hell of a lot less than the 80k in 89′ would have.
Savy and ahead of the curve my ass!
“They try to make it seem like smart savy people buy condos. Condos are by far the shittiest purchase you can make–EVER!!!! They are not even real estate!!!!”
I want to read more statements like this from far more people and let this drive condo prices down. For single guys who travel a lot, like myself, especially since almost every do it yourself project I’ve done looks cheap and worse off than before the project, a condominium is the logical choice. The best HOAs are the ones where they handle the maintenance (exterior, roofing, gardening, pools, and so on). I have more fun things to do rather than spend all weekend at Home Depot. Condo prices have to fall to 50% of 2005 prices before I buy.
Yes, keep calling them $hitty, and keep calling them the worst investment. They’ve been around for decades. If they were the worst investment in RE, they would be extinct by now.
I agree with what you’re saying but too many people here get hung up on real appreciation or depreciation.
Let me give you an example. If I could buy a house where the cost to own equals the cost to rent I would do it. Let’s say after 10 years that house appreciates at 1% below the inflation rate. In this case the house has depreciated in real terms. However, it was still a good investment. In the end I will walk away with a lot of money. Had I rented I would walk away with nothing. In either case I paid the exact same opportunity cost.
Now I fully understand that that hypothetical does not match the current situations - not even in the slightest. But it’s incorrect to get hung up on inflation adjusted terms unless you consider the equivalent cost to rent in the calculations.
Chart after chart of CA markets show the same thing…inventory dropped over the fall/winter…and then rebounded sharply over the last month.
Housing bulls have been talking about dropping inventory as proof the market is bottomed…this will shut them up.
Gene
How do you call for a recovery or new boom with inventory numbers currently at last summers peak? Summer meltdown in Vegas for sure…..grab some of Neil’s popcorn and enjoy the show.
I just can’t understand what attracts people to Vegas. Sure, it’s fun to visit, infrequently, but live there? I spent one year there as a child and let me tell you, it was hell. Even a 50% haircut isn’t enough for that cesspool. I’m thinking $50k houses is a good start.
munch munch munch
Part of cannot believe they’re calling for an uptick…
The rest of me has sight of all that construction, the sub-prime melt down, and the realization that “team Casey” hasn’t left the field yet.
Its sort of like watching a demolition derby between monster trucks and a bunch of guys you really hate driving Yugos. Its not going to be pretty, but oh boy have you cranked up the sound!
Got popcorn?
Neil
“‘Traffic will be a nightmare, but I’m all about living there,’ Fox said. ‘I like to go out and have fun on the weekends. If I’m going to party down on the Strip, I don’t want to get drunk and get a DUI.’”
I may be simple minded, but I had never considered buying an overpriced condo as a prophylactic for DUI. Incredible thinking. Saving $43 each weekend x 52 weekends (sounds like he parties hard) will save him $2,100 a year. Definitely worth it. Besides, they really aren’t building any more condos in Vegas…
As a mortgage broker, Jason Fox must really have his pulse on what is going on in Vegas. I hope that Option-ARM works out for him as his mortgage broker income dries up.
Exactly. Who better to take real estate advice from than a 26-year old community college dropout with a low-skill job and a drinking problem?
“A $7 cab fare will get him anywhere on the Strip, compared with $50 for a trip to the suburbs, Fox said.”
Dumbass.
Let me get this straight… This 26 year old borker…er I mean broker is going to buy a million plus dollar condo so he can save on cab fare? UFB
Friend of mine bought a place walking distance from his favorite bars specifically for that reason. Oh yeah, as an investment, too: “That housing project won’t be there forever, you know…”, or so he’s been saying.
The puzzling thing is, he has to walk past that public housing project (across the street from his rowhouse) on his drunken, weaving way home as he stumbles back from the bar after midnight. Hardly seems like a good alternative to me, just to save on cab fare. But each to his own decision.
After he pays a few mortgage payments… it will cost him so much in alchohol to numb himself that he won’t make it to the bars anymore!
Got popcorn?
Neil
Being about that age and having lived in Vegas for 4 years, I think it’s less about DUI, and more about having a place nearby where he can entertain his, um, “clients” after a night out.
Taking a cab to the burbs is a sure way to make sure she falls asleep. And who wants to drive her home in the morning?
Sounds like fun to me. Where do I sign up? I think many of these posters are envious about the fun that single men can have in Vegas - what with all the bars and show girls. You must be married to nags.
Among his corporate business names:
LVhardmoney.com
Foxyhomes.com LLC
Fixer.com LLC
LVeasymoney LLC
AVR LLC
LTRP LLC
Upper LLC
sorry, but a 26 YO doesn’t need that many shell companies unless he’s a sleeze.
How did you look that up?
https://esos.state.nv.us/SOSServices/AnonymousAccess/CorpSearch/CorpSearch.aspx
But this is the sort of investor that Las Vegas builders want to sells these condos to .According to Sigalarm they charge more per sq foot ave. for condos than SFR’s. I think in many areas the target buyer for the builder was the 21 to 30 year old sub-prime borrower who has never seen a downturn and they buy into the hype (not that other age groups didn’t buy into the Sin City hype).
Is this credible journalism? Interviewing a 26 year old mortgage broker? Was he a valet parker at the Sands 4 months ago? Who cares what he thinks? My guess is the journalist conned his editor into sending him to Vegas for a week to do “investigative” reporting. He then got sucked into the craps table and the strip joints for the entire week and had to make up his story and sources. Not very impressive.
Great point. So many of the RE stories we read are planted by the REIC (Real Estate Industrial Complex.) Jason Fox may or may not have put down $15K. Whether he buys a place or not, who knows. The LATimes reporter was set up. Imagine using this Fox guy as an example of the “average buyer.” He’s far from the normal buyer. He’s an LV RE/Mortgage slimeball. A lot of reporters are extremely lazy. Either that, or that know so little about what they cover that they are easily conned.
Jason Fox=Bud Fox
He’d probably take it as a compliment
I’ll bet traffic comes to a stop at Stateline Nevada then stop and go bumper to bumper for 30 miles into Vegas, yeah Vegas Baby !! Beer Me !
“As it is, getting from one end of the Strip to another can be a bumper-to-bumper, time-wasting endeavor”
“A $7 cab fare will get him anywhere on the Strip, compared with $50 for a trip to the suburbs, Fox said.”
These two statements seem to contradict one another. The far end of the strip can’t be a $7 cab ride if you spend an hour sitting in traffic.
…”density at project center will rival that of Manhattan”.
Now all they need are some dog-sized rats and- voila!- the magic of NYC.
“I am very excited about the Manhattanization of Las Vegas,’ Fox said…..”
Sure, and if Jason ever thinks about being a cowboy, the town of Rock Ridge from ‘Blazing Saddles’ will probably be right up his alley. The false front is just as good as the real deal, as long as you don’t look behind the plywood.
…”density at project center will rival that of Manhattan”.
Or at least that of Potemkin!
I say, “keep this dip$hit in Las Vegas”. We have enough scumbags that fit his description in this town already.
I’m trying to think how Vegas can be like Manhattan. I’m drawing a blank here. Vegas always seems clean to me when I’m there and not congested. It doesn’t have any of the sewer-like qualities of Manhattan. I guess they plan to work on that.
make a moat out of sewage around it and pretend its an island… make sure you can only build vertically inside the “island”. Also price 500 sf apartments at 1k per sf at least.
They need a subway too maybe re rout one of the toxic waste disposal railroads to go in a circle on the “island”.
Florida thread’s too old now, but this is funny. Someone needs to point this clown to the blog:
http://www.tmz.com/2007/02/26/ricky-martin-selling-his-big-a-casa/
Thanks for posting, tx. Good stuff. Believe it or not, it probably WILL sell, to a wealthy South American who wants bragging rights to Martin’s old crib.
I guess Miami reminds some people of the old country. Livin’ la vida loca.
Cola buys a lot of Ponderosa, and I dont mean soda
More like la vida estupida.
He’s Puerto Rican. People in South America don’t give a crap about him. It might sell to another celebrity, Latin or otherwise, because celebrity houses seem to have provenance like a painting. The article says his neighbors are Matt Damon and Shakira.
“Just where I would want to live in..a house where Ricky Martin was Butt Plugged in every room and in every imaginable position. They better fumigate.”
This was by far the best remark on that article.
At $16M, the new owner would obviously need some serious cash flow…his annual prop taxes will be around $320,000K alone. Big $$$ mansions aren’t selling too quickly right now in South Florida. Dan Marino had to just lower the price on his mansion for sale. I also think Shaq is trying to sell his Miami palace on Star Island.
Got to love 26 year old mortgage broker’s that will “hook it up” for a condo
“‘I’m definitely buying one,’ Fox said. ‘I’m going to get the largest unit they have in the highest floor. I’m always on the phone with the saleslady trying to hook it up.’”
I wasn’t aware that Team Casey had a LV office.
That Fox guy is just plain wrong on so many levels as a human. Those were two of the most disgusting Goldilocks articles seen here. What freaking morons. We need lenders, developers, builders, etc., but the REIC needs a serious enema to flush out all the toxic blockage like Mr. Fox, Casey Serin, Liereah, LAY, 98% of the realtors, etc. It can’t happen soon enough as far as I’m concerned.
“I wasn’t aware that Team Casey had a LV office.”
If casey has a Vegas office, all I can say is…………….”sweet”
Phillygal, I would guess this Fox moron is getting the largest unit they have to make up for the small unit he already has.
In a way I am envious as I wish could be that stupid and have that much fun and still have enough time left to recover financially.
Hell, all I had was disco and an old POS car.
Dimedropped… I have always wondered the same kind of thoughts. I am personally very financially responsible and plan to buy my house in cash and also have my retirement nest egg put aside. It’s taken me a long time to get there though and I make a lot of frugal choices in my everyday life. I often wonder if the financially irresponsible folks we read about who took the HELOC European Vacations, driving fancy cars, own boats, etc. won’t have the last laugh. It really seems there needs to be something like debtors prison (I know too harsh) but it is just too easy for some many people to abuse credit and then just go BK and walk when they can’t pay. I think there should be harsher penalty attached. Right now one could argue that he who dies with the largest debt wins.
Phillygal, I would guess this Fox moron is getting the largest unit they have to make up for the small unit he already has.
That’s unfortunate.
Team Casey
ROTFLMAO
That one was good!
Got popcorn?
Neil
“Our typical buyer is an entrepreneurial person who typically tends to be ahead of the market as far as understanding real estate and getting ahead of the curve”
Did someone send out a memo to the REIC?: “Just say ‘Our buyers are smarter’”
This is the third or fourth time I’ve seen this “claim” crop up. I’ll give them credit, its a clever sales ploy. Confronted by the fact that there are fewer and fewer buyers turn “logic” on its head and insist “your” buyers are THE SMARTEST people around. It will be interesting how far this flattery gets these guys.
“Our typical buyer is an entrepreneurial person who typically tends to be ahead of the market as far as understanding real estate and getting ahead of the curve = Jackass.”
“Our typical buyer is an entrepreneurial person who typically tends to be ahead of the market as far as understanding real estate and getting ahead of the curve”
More vomitous tripe from yet another lying sack of sh!t.
“ahead of the market” “ahead of the curve”. What’s he, a freaking navigation system?
“This takes the Las Vegas evolution to the next level”
Does this sound like it involves re-education camps to anyone else?
By next level, does he mean higher or lower?
‘I am very excited about the Manhattanization of Las Vegas,’
This poor idiot thinks the thing that makes Manhattan cool is the population density. LOL.
Why not move to Calcutta then?
Yeah, this guy’s high on his own supply. You know the American city is in trouble when twentysomething RE hacks start to think they know what it takes to make sustainable communities.
He’s high on his own supply of kool aid. LV will never be Manhatten or any other urban environment of significance. Nothing more than a place for people to waste away their $ and livers. A place where the average sheep (citizen) can go for a weekend to be mesmerized by lights and fire.
Calcutta! That is a good point! Maybe they can import some of Shanghai’s smog to Vegas as well.
Yea…like water!?
“Getting from one end of the Strip to another can be a bumper-to-bumper, time-wasting endeavor…
A $7 cab fare will get him anywhere on the Strip, compared with $50 for a trip to the suburbs, Fox said.”
Unless taxicabs are like the cars in the Jetsons, they will be stuck in the same bumper to bumper time wasting endeavor as the cars. If Fox was drinking all night he’ll need those astronaut diapers fot the trip home.
And this Fox guy doesn’t sound real, honestly. He sounds like a “plant,” an actor they hire to spew the schtick.
We took a cab from the Bellagio to the Luxor one night. My wife and I got out and walked, at one point, because traffic was so jammed. Our friend had on high heels so her and her husband took the cab. I think we beat them back to the hotel. More cars will be exactly what L.V. needs. Just ship all of these worthless NYC cab drivers out there. I would be forever in their debt.
My question is what are they planning to do about water in Las Vegas. As I understand, Nevada has little rights to the Colorado river, and there sure isn’t much rain in Las Vegas. Where are they getting their water now? Are they going to be affected by the western drought, which I understand is getting worse?
Proposals have been made to build an aqueduct from Utah to southern Nevada. It’s not all that crazy an idea, it worked in California, but I don’t think it’s off the drawing board yet.
I’ve heard Vegas currently gets water from Arizona (Northern AZ has rain and snowfall). But also saw a recent article that water resources all along the Colorado are stretched pretty thin, from the Rockies down to Mexico.
Utah has already said no go on letting LV have some of its ground water. One of the major aquifers that LV officials are interested in straddles the Nevada/Utah border and as such Utah has a say in where the water goes.
Also noteworth is Utahs plan to run a pipeline from Lake Powell all the way along the southern Utah/Arizona border to St George. They will do this to utilize more of their water shares of the Colorado River and hence leave Vegas in an even tighter spot.
The only thing really to continue the unabatted growth in the Mojave desert is the development of energy effective desalination plants positioned on the ocean in Cal somewhere and pipe water from there to here. Even then the energy to pump the water some 2000 ft above sea level would hardly be worth it.
If anyone thinks Las Vegans will die of thirst before they take water headed to SoCal they are wrong. SoCal will run out before Vegas, because the Colorado runs thru NV before California. Respecting a 50-year -old water agreement if they’re running out of water? Be serious.
It sounds like it’s time to thin the herd.
waste recycling ergo once they flush liquids into the system they instantly get transported to someone else for consumption…
Also I actually think Las Vegas growing is a good Idea… Think about it a city in the desert with most of the land under it unusable for anything productive like farming, or industry. why not populate it with morons?…
Think Canada….most water in the world up there….just need to get a pipeline…..and get a Canadian goverment smart enough to see the value in selling excess water.
There is a reason why until the age of cheap oil only a few scattered native tribes ever made it to that barren desert… Water and HEAT!!!
Substract cheap energy and cheap air conditioning and I wouldn’t want to be stuck in that place after a 2 week water cut off and maybe gas cut off (electricity black out????). The worst nightmare of those sci-fi dystopian futures might come to be realized. Mad max will look like a kid’s movie when the populace starts to fight over a drop of water.
Basically the New Orleans Superdome X 1000….
Aside from that I am not too thrilled to pay as much in condo fees as a second mortgage for the privilege of being stacked up with 10,000 other peers for the next 20 years until I get even on my initial investment.
Well, if they started to take advantage of cheap solar and recycling water (not as bad as it sounds), they could probably keep going for decades. Using ground source heat pumps would help keep cooling costs down.
Pardon my ignorance, but what are “gound source heat pumps?”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground-source_heat_pump
Thanks uptown and dublin. Cost-effective and readily available in SoCal? -
Bull$hit. Las Vegas, like Phoenix and all other sunbelt megacities, are totally and utterly dependent on cheap oil for their existence. LV is way, way beyond the natural carrying capacity of the local ecosystem and no amount of solar arrays or water recylcing is going to save them when cheap oil isn’t so cheap any more. At current rates of consumption, in 37 years every last drop of oil on Earth will be gone and way before that happens there will be a dust-bowl-type exodus from Las Vegas. Think about it. LV is in the middle of nowhere. Without cheap oil and therefore cheap transportation, the hordes of middle-class sheeple won’t be able to flock there. Take away the tourists and the economy collapses. There is no local agriculture so every bit of food that is consumed in LV has to be shipped in on trucks or planes. With the possible exception of Phoenix, I think Las Vegas is the worst place to buy a house, from a long-term prospective, of anywhere in the U.S. In 50 years Las Vegas will be like Rome in the middle ages - a bunch of half-buried, abandoned buildings with sheep (or lizards in LV’s case) grazing around the forum.
“…in 37 years every last drop of oil on Earth will be gone…”
There are no facts to prove this statement to be true. In fact, in a world where we are still discovering new species of plants and animals, the idea that we know precisely how much oil is left underground, is preposterous at best. Nevertheless, I agree with your idea of Vegas being a long term bust.
It is not necessary to know how much oil is left underground. What is necessary is to know how much oil is feasibly recovered with human, not extraterrestrial, technology.
That’s pretty well covered by the Oil Bidness. It’s hard now, and getting harder and harder. Oil will not ‘run out’, it will be infeasibly expensive.
BTW, so what if we are discovering new species of plants and animals—they are pretty insignificant next to the ones that we know. A proper analogy would be us discovering lots of new species of plants and animals, reproducing in a large pristine new habitat, that we can EAT. Uh, no.
Actually geologists have been coming up with and refining their estimates for oil reserves for the past 50 years. There are only certain geological formations and certain depths at which oil can be stored. Geologists have pretty much mapped and tested every place on Earth where oil is likely to be. The bottom line is that it is highly unlikely that any new easy-to-get-at giant oilfields will be discovered. New discoveries will tend to be smaller, harder to get at fields in places like the deep water in the Gulf of Mexico.
The current estimate that I’ve read is that there is about 1.1 trillion barrels of oil left under the Earth. We are currently using about 30 billion barrels a year - that’s how the 37 years figure comes about. However, Dr Chaos is entirely correct. As we pump more and more of it out what remains will be harder to get at and much more expensive to extract.
Peak oil is a myth for the gullible just as global warming is for the scientifically ignorant. And the “scientists” talking up these myths are just looking for grant money and/or political power. They think the world should be run by technocrats.
I don’t get it. How can anyone look at solid RE data and formulate the existance of a housing bubble, but look at solid data regarding peak oil or global warming and arrogantly proclaim that anyone who subscribes to theories of peak oil and global warming are just gullible, scientific ignorami?
Because the data being used to promulgate the myths are flawed or false. But that doesn’t make a good scare story.
ok, I’ll bite. Let’s talk about peak oil first. Since peak oil is the theory that at some point global demand for oil will outpace the ability to extract this non-renewable resource cheaply, how can anyone argue that peak oil is a myth? Are you saying that we have limitless reserves which we will never run out of? This is a serious question and I would like to hear thoughts on this.
As far as global warming is concerned, I have seen tons of data in support of global warming which I can link here if you’d like, but since this a housing blog, I can send you offline if you’d like. But per your argument, show me some solid rebuttal data or your official take on how the original data is either flawed or false because so far everything I’ve seen or heard seems to indicate that I am not the ignoramus here.
Simple energy solution for Vegas is to build some nuclear power plants. They are cleaner and would provide all the power they need. Another benefit of the location is if they had a disaster they are already way out in the middle of the desert, so who cares! Vegas could be wiped off the face of the map and it wouldn’t really matter to very many people.
Maybe some can make a living as moisture farmers, like the Skywalkers did on Tatooine.
“Our typical buyer is an entrepreneurial person who typically tends to be ahead of the market as far as understanding real estate and getting ahead of the curve,”
Would you care to tell us who are the lenders to these Californians, Mr. Riordan?
NEW, NFI, LEND.
These stocks continue to be a remarkable and consistent paycheck to the shorts. It’s gotta end somewhere… $0 for a lot of them I’m convinced. I’ve been at it for the past 2 weeks and the closest to this kind of action I can remember was 00-01 NASD where the bottom just kept falling out.
‘Our typical buyer is an entrepreneurial person who typically tends to be ahead of the market as far as understanding real estate and getting ahead of the curve,’ he said.”
————————————————————
Yep, that’s how flippers see themselves. Until the trout-smack.
“Yep, that’s how flippers see themselves. Until the trout-smack.”
TROUT-SMACK? Bwahahaaaa!!!!! Gold…
And Txchick is getting that trout ready as we speak…
I think she’s upgraded to a big ol Salmon.
Ahead of the curve, before veering over the cliff.
‘I am very excited about the Manhattanization of Las Vegas,’ Fox said.”
——————————————————————–
When did Vegas become and island? Imagined geographical building constraints do not concern Fox in the least.
I lived in Vegas for a couple years during the boom and *almost* got swept into buying a condo. I just couldn’t do it, though–all the speculation I witnessed going on was just far too scary. So I ended up cancelling my sales contract, at which time I was told by the sales guy, “Vegas is going to be like Manhattan in a few years, you know.” Only this guy wasn’t talking about population density–he was trying to tell me that PRICES were going to be like Manhattan’s! I just laaaaaaaaaaaaaaughed! I was like, “Give me a f’ing break–and GIVE ME MY DEPOSIT BACK!!!”
Phew, just narrowly escaped that one!
Las Vegas, an Island surrounded by a sea of…land…
…land…
you mean …sand
No he means dirt
“‘Our typical buyer is an entrepreneurial person who typically tends to be ahead of the market as far as understanding real estate and getting ahead of the curve,’ he said.”
I picture an entrepreneur as some 30ish guy with such a wide grin on his face all the time that he cannot wipe it off. Of course he’s seen it all and knows everything.
Come to think of it - a perfect customer in today’s bubble markets.
I suggest the old “Tubes” song “White Punks on Dope” would be better picture of the entrepreneur. BEER ME !!
Throw in the heavily gelled hair, the loud tie, the leased BMW SUV and we’re getting a mental image.
Jason Fox = Bud Fox
This is a very good article re: Affordability
http://www.onlineopinion.com.au:80/view.asp?article=5097
“In all, about 70,000 condo and condo-hotel units are planned and 10,740 are under construction.”
Well it’s a good thing all of these condo closets are going to be sitting MT. If not, where would they get the water for all of these people?
“In a morphing city where hotels and casinos are built and razed and built again, a massive new development seeks to make a lasting mark on the city’s skyline. Project CityCenter, blah blah blah
These people are spending hundreds of $millions building all of these MT condo closets, but it will only cost $tens of millions to bring it all down.
Could this be any more pathetic? Read this listing
http://www.prosper.com/public/lend/listing.aspx?listingID=101566
Un-freaking-real!
Reading her info, I can understand why she has the listings. St. George is a location I checked into to buy a retirement house…..until I realized how bubblized it was and how freakin’ hot it gets. Yeah, I know, but it was a checking out “best place to retire” articles.
Anyway, I contacted an agent there about info and the guy will NOT leave me alone….emails every two days….and have to reject his calls.
She’s got four listing at the first of the year. Those have got to be expired listings with top of the bubble prices.
She_is_screwed……
I don’t think begging is her calling either (only $50 bucks), maybe she can hire the dog out for parties ? BEER ME !!
So sad. How many thousands of other people have ruined their lives “trading” gainful employment for this RE crap?
This lady will eventually go back to her photography, but (I hope, for her sake) in this round trip she will learn her lesson.
Yeah, this is really sad. I can see some humor in it, but it just goes to show that some people (many, unfortunately) really do need to be protected from themselves. Which was one of the key principles underpinning the traditional mortgage lending standards. But then the stringent standards came to be seen as elitist, and “credit” became a right, so here we are.
I might lend it to the dog. Got a better smile.
I’ll bet the dog has a few Credit Cards in its name. BEER ME !!
Wow, how do you keep finding these??
Well, this ad answers two questions:
1. Yes, realtors still do pose with their dogs.
2. It doesn’t take a genius to be a realtor. (loose = lose, do = due)
I’ve been studying Prosper.com. I even signed up as a lender but I couldn’t find anyone I was willing to lend money too. However, I think they are onto something. Payday loans of up to 500% are big problem in MO.
Shouldn’t they have called it Pauper.com?
PS - Do NOT, I repeat do NOT, click on her photo!!!! My eyes…oh, my eyes….
I’ll suggest to them that they buy that domain name
The whole “neck wider than the head” look is a hard one to pull off. That poor woman should start taking better care of herself.
I also signed up as a lender (ITulip lending group) but the group never made any loans. Same reason. If they have good credit, they want to pay 7-8%. No thanks. I can beat that in the stock market. The rest of them, forget it. I have given money to a couple of them who needed it for vet bills.
I know this is cold and off the point, but I can’t feel sorry for anyone who uses “loose” when she means “lose”. It’s one thing for us bloggers to mistype a word, but when you’re sending out an ad for your services on the Internet use a fricking spell checker.
On the other hand, her dog looks nice. Maybe she could sell her dog?
That’s the whole problem.
A spell checker won’t object to ‘loose’.
Good point. It’s like a kid who uses a calculator at school and can’t multiply 4×4 on his own. She should chuck the spell checker and learn a little basic grammar.
FACE LIKE A TURNIP!
That poor dog. I’ll lend him $50 to make a getaway!
She might need to get rid of the new Mercedes she bought when she became a realtor. All new realtor career changers that I was acquanted with in SoCal had to run out and lease a new BMW or Mercedes to have that successful Realtor image…even when they hadn’t made a dime yet.
“‘It’s a much younger buyer,’ he said. ‘The market’s much broader. When we first started, the average age was early 60s. Now I’d say the average age is mid-40s. Obviously, when you have a lower age, you’ve got more people, a lot of baby boomers.’”
Do boomers really need to be taking on more mortgage debt? I guess some plan on working into their 90s.
Note: People in their 40s somehow got lumped into the boomer crowd. They are actually called Generation Jones by those who look deep enough into demographics.
27 to 41 years old = Generation X
Recession!!!!!!! Not whether, but when.
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/
About 6 - 8 months ago I was telling co-workers to prepare for the mother-of-all recessions near the end of 2007. I even told them a meltdown in subprime lending would cause it. That was the lesson I had learned from spending time on this blog and being exposed to what was really going on. Of course they laughed. I doubt any of them put away even a single extra penny.
Who will be laughing during this recession? It might get so bad that even those of us on this blog may not find much humor in it. But I doubt we will be crying our eyes out like so many of the unprepared drones. The appeals to government to help them out of their own hole will be appalling.
It is crazy to compare Manhattan and Las Vegas. It is almost half of the worlds capital in Manhattan, thousands of people make huge amount of money. That is why NY real estate is so expensive. In Las Vegas only Mr. Kirkorian and maybe three others are making money, rest are getting their salaries. It is Big Casino out there and besides those few winners, the rest will be the losers.
It is crazy to compare Manhattan and Las Vegas. It is almost half of the worlds capital in Manhattan, thousands of people make huge amount of money. That is why NY real estate is so expensive. In Las Vegas only Mr. Kirkorian and maybe three others are making money, rest are getting their salaries. It is Big Casino out there and besides those few winners, the rest will be the losers.
“‘This takes the Las Vegas evolution to the next level,’ said Terry Jicinsky, vice president of marketing for the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority.”
Next stop on the evolutionary scale: Cro Magnon Redneck
Is this an upgrade from Neanderthal Redneck?
mortgage problems spread to alt-a:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20070226/bs_ft/fto022620071748096058
“The delinquency numbers for the 2006 Alt-A originations are materially worse than a lot of people would have expected,” said Charles Sorrentino, mortgage analyst at Merrill Lynch.
For the record, we weren’t asked about the expected delinquency rate. Do you want our answer on prime in 2008 now that you’re here?
I recently found out that an estimated 15% of the $2million to $2.5million market was bought zero down option arm in my area…
Whisky Tango Foxtrot? No wonder that ex-gardner lives in a nicer place than I ever will…
Got popcorn?
Neil
The storm clouds are gathering nicely.
All hell may break loose this year!
I think “spin” time is just about over.
Having raved at the TV screen for a # of years while the barest idea of a housing bubble was poo-poo’ed by the MSM, I now see that the raw data can’t be held back any longer, though you do still have to kinda look for it. By that I mean that J6P may be feeling a slight “digestive distrubance” at this point, but hasn’t connected the dots to realize that a 1/2 lb. of jalepenos maybe weren’t the right thing to go with tequilla shots!
Point being, and how appropriate this thread is on Vegas, are you folks “placing your bets” in the stock market?
I started my RE bear portfolio about a month ago and it is roughly as follows(short and/or puts):
LEN
ITM (home construction index)
CFC
FED
FMT (They have “earnings’ due the 28th)
RYCWX (Rydex Inverse Dow, I am “long” this)
I bring this up because I read a thread on The Big Picture today that seemed to intimate that J6P could rely on stock market gains in his/her 401k to make up for RE related losses.
I don’t have any RE related losses, but I do plan on having some RE related gains!
If you’re short FED, short DSL, too.
I was going to buy long term puts on NCF for sure (along with one or two other positions, one a homebuilder, the other maybe WM), but because of my income and trading experience (I am in my mid 20s, not much experience obviously), several brokerages have completely refused to let me trade options.
Extremely frustrating. All I want to do is put 10% of my retirement money in long term puts on things I am almost 100% certain will go down, and that I am more than 100% certain will go down if the overall market takes a big hit, meaning it would be a great hedge to the rest of my portfolio, which is long.
A**holes. Already cost me at least 10% return on all of my assets (after NCF took its big hit I wouldn’t have held on and watch it fall even further, I would have taken what I had gotten).
So frustrating. It’s harder being located in China, because sending applications and all that is just a pain.
“Our typical buyer is an entrepreneurial person who typically tends to be ahead of the market as far as understanding real estate and getting ahead of the curve,’ he said.”
Marketing ploy designed for the obvious GFs, who like to think of themselves as entrepreneurs (i.e., Casey). Only problem is, with the implosion of the subprime market, there is no more money for their folly…..
And what does “getting ahead of the curve” mean when the curve is falling? Selling the RE and holding the proceeds in cash, right? Oops, I forgot…all the proceeds will go to the lender(s). GFs indeed!
“Not only has the market turned back up, but buyers are more serious and qualified and they’re here to buy, Riordan said. ‘Our typical buyer is an entrepreneurial person who typically tends to be ahead of the market as far as understanding real estate and getting ahead of the curve,’ he said.”
They are so far ahead of the curve they are not letting the price drop. I have been following the market since last June Here are the numbers:
15 Jul 06: 252 units 600k +,146 units 800k+, 90 units 1 million+
26 Feb 07 531 units 600k+, 304 units 800k+, 169 Units 1 million +
Most buildings have not had a resale for the last several months. It appears the fools are still being lured into the flashy new construction without doing their homework. Vegas is a ticking time bomb in the high end!!! Most of the buildings near the strip have not even be built yet so I expect the inventory levels to go much higher and no turnaround until 2009 or 2010 at the earliest. Every time I check the numbers the prices stay the same or in a few rare cases they are lowered but NOTHING is selling on the secondary market!!! The 26 year old broker hasn’t got a pot to piss in let alone have the proper capital to purchase a million $$ condo. Well in the old days it took capital in order to purchase something of this cost. As we are all seeing the lending standards are tightening that I bet it will flush out at least a third of those who have signed up for one of those condos in City Center. This will add to the already high inventory level and ensure the recovery takes even longer in Vegas then most of the US.
All I can think of is a NPR show with Robert Schiller from a year or two ago where an individual from Las Vegas called up and complained that Schiller had it all wrong with regards to LV. Guess not! A fool and his/her money are soon parted. God I hope the idiots don’t take the whole show down with them. That is what fuels my nightmares.