“Speculators Caught By Abrupt End Of The Boom”
The Journal Sentinel reports from Wisconsin. “Fields of dreams are scattered across metro Milwaukee, platted subdivisions awaiting the end of the home-building slump. Only one in four vacant land parcels for sale in the four-county region sold last year, a ratio that went to one in eight in January, MLS figures show.”
“Real estate appraisers say some speculators got caught by the abrupt end of the 2001-’05 building boom. ‘It’s like musical chairs. These people kept developing, leveraged to the hilt, as the market changed. Now the boom is over, and they’re stuck without a chair,’ said Steven G. Stiloski, president of the Appraisal Institute’s Wisconsin chapter.”
“Real estate industry veterans say it’s not them stuck without a chair. ‘We’re not that stupid. We knew this was coming,’ said Mark Lake, director of development at Redmond Residential of Wisconsin.”
“His Waukesha firm is marketing two subdivisions, Emerald Ridge and Hines Meadows, both in Saukville, on MLS ’simply so Realtors and buyers know the subdivision is there. Those lots haven’t been developed yet,’ he said. ‘When the time is right, we’ll build.’”
“‘This is nothing compared to 1980-’84, when the market was so slow you couldn’t give lots away,’ said Bill Carity, owner of Carity Land Development in Brookfield. ‘But there’s no question that certain markets have been overbuilt. I’ve never seen so much land for sale.’”
“Stiloski said he’s never seen so much buildable land before on the MLS system. ‘Me neither,’ said Michael Brachmann, president of Independent Fee Appraisers in Menomonee Falls. ‘I haven’t heard of any subdivisions going belly up yet. But if somebody bought at the top (of the boom), it wouldn’t surprise me. The carrying costs are going to eat them alive.’”
“Developers and appraisers said they know of land holders in financial distress but wouldn’t name them. Wally Neumann said the Summit property on which he advertised a ‘drastically reduced’ price proved to have only five salable lots instead of the envisioned nine. The price reduction ‘has nothing to do with a soft market,’ he said.”
“Regardless of where the building downturn is hitting, the underlying economics are undeniable, said Glendale appraiser Robert S. Schley Jr. ‘Not only has supply increased, but demand has slackened. Economics 101 tells you that if we don’t soon return to equilibrium, prices will fall,’ Schley said.”
“‘I’d say most areas here have been flat since the fall of ‘05,’ he said. The market’s direction should be known by spring, he said.”
The Detroit News from Michigan. “Alan and Alyson Wirgau live in a cute ranch on a quiet suburban street. There’s a new roof above their heads, a new deck in back and a For Sale By Owner sign in front. Instead of weighing offers, the family is weighing an option that seemed unthinkable a year ago: If they don’t sell their home soon, they may turn down the heat, load their possessions in a U-Haul and drive away.”
“With a job in Indianapolis and dim prospects for selling their home, the Wirgaus are considering handing the keys back to the bank and walking away from their home.”
“That process, called a deed in lieu of foreclosure, is an agreement to give up all ownership rights in a home or piece of property to the lender.”
“It’s not a good option for anyone, but it’s often better than the alternative. Homeowners’ credit ratings are hurt, but not as much as in a foreclosure; the lenders lose money on homes now worth less than the outstanding loan, but lose less than the cost of a foreclosure proceeding.”
“‘Nobody knows you can even do it,’ said Ann Howard, a bankruptcy attorney in Southfield. ‘I’m seeing people coming in and saying, ‘What do we do about our house?’ Their (mortgage) rate changed, they’re not getting the overtime they used to, they’ve taken a job out of state.’”
“In normal times, they’re the homeowners who would write ‘motivated seller’ in their house ads and sell for a few thousand less. But with no buyers and property values declining, homeowners who have to sell fast find themselves in unchartered financial territory.”
“Two years ago the Wirgau family’s 1,500-square-foot home was valued at $210,000. Today, it’s for sale at $180,000, just enough to pay the mortgage and the closing costs. No one has made an offer in the three months it’s been on the market. At the full asking price, ‘we’d just break even, and I’d bend down and kiss their (the buyers’) feet,’ Alyson Wirgau said.”
“Lenders who frowned on such deals as well as short sales now are routinely agreeing to both. For lenders, the choice often is between losing a little money now or a lot of money later. ‘The banks don’t know what they’re going to get back,’ Howard said. ‘If people are willing to hand the house over, then it’s less likely the bank will get possession of a house that is completely trashed.’”
“With home prices continuing to fall, the sooner a lender can sell the distressed house, the less money the lender loses, said Michael Kus, spokesman for the Michigan Association of Community Banks. ‘It’s the busiest department in the banks now, short sales and deeds in lieu,’ Howard said. ‘They have people devoted to it.’”
“‘People choose between trying to salvage some of their credit rating versus living in the house for free,’ said Southfield bankruptcy lawyer Stuart Gold. ‘Some banks are even paying people to give their houses back, even on a short sale. They’ll pay them $500 to help on moving expenses to get them out of the house.’”
“The Wirgaus don’t know what they’re going to do. They’re considering lowering the price of their home and dipping into their savings to pay the bank the difference. Even then, there’s no guarantee that their house will sell. In July, the family’s adjustable rate mortgage will jump from 5.25 percent to 8.25 percent, costing another $250 a month. A property tax bill of $2,800 will be due.”
“‘If we’re not out of here by then, something’s gotta give,’ Wirgau said. ‘I’ve covered all the angles. I hope it doesn’t come to that but it may be worth starting over.’”
“That process, called a deed in lieu of foreclosure, is an agreement to give up all ownership rights in a home or piece of property to the lender.”
That’s what I’ve been talking about for the past 3 months here. Banks will take the deed in lieu or authorize a quick sale any day of the week compared to a foreclosure. The glut of property that will be available will astound even the most bearish of us.
‘Some banks are even paying people to give their houses back, even on a short sale. They’ll pay them $500 to help on moving expenses to get them out of the house.’”
LMAO! That’s a Carlton Sheets gambit to get rid of deadbeat renters. Pay them to move. Hire a truck if you have to. (Yep, I confess that many moons ago, I listened to a couple of Carlton Sheets tapes.)
Given how hard it is to evict people I think that is a pretty smart move. 1 moving truck has to be cheaper than 6 months of legal bills.
1 moving truck is cheaper than one month of legal bills.
Deed in lieu of foreclosure = jingle mail. Oh, and what about this:
“For lenders, the choice often is between losing a little money now or a lot of money later.”
Oh really? And would someone please explain how it will be easier for the lenders to unload all those POS than it was for the failed homeowners? Like you said, Bad Andy, “a glut of property”.
“And would someone please explain how it will be easier for the lenders to unload all those POS than it was for the failed homeowners.”
If the lender will have to unload it anyway, they’d rather do it with keys in hand instead of going through the foreclosure process.
We’ve got a long way down…especially in areas like MI. I’m not calling an ‘09 recovery for that market. It will crash hard and probably won’t see any real recovery until 5 years AFTER the economy rebounds in the state.
So, maybe never?
“So, maybe never? ”
LMAO! Even PA found new industry after the steel meltdown. It will turn eventually.
Andy: You are a man of faith. On the other hand, economics eventually level the field. Given the NY Times article from yesterday, maybe they will all move back because it is cheaper to live in Michigan.
Its all acedemic at this point. David Learah says the bottom was in Sept 06:
“For the last several months I have been hemming and hawing on whether we have reached bottom,” said David Lereah, chief economist for the Realtors. He said that the January report was an encouraging sign that the bottom for sales activity was reached last September with sales expected to stabilize this year.”
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070227/economy.html?.v=7
Wonder what else Alyson would kiss?
There’s a definite sound of desperation in her statement. Multiply that sentiment by a million or so in her neck of the woods, and you’ll begin to get a handle on the enormity of this problem.
http://www.emailforeclosures.com/
Any photos of the seller, this may be a new marketing plan.
all that land that they were’nt making any more of has reappeared.
I see lots in the Pocanos for 20% of 05 pricing on Ebay……….
In July…a property tax bill of $2,800 will be due.
Forgive my ignorance, but aren’t the property taxes usually factored into the monthly payment (meaning it wouldn’t be due all at once like this)?
“Forgive my ignorance, but aren’t the property taxes usually factored into the monthly payment (meaning it wouldn’t be due all at once like this)? ”
Not if you don’t give your bank an interest free loan every year. I don’t escrow because it’s crazy in my opinion. Instead I use a money market at 5% APY to save my tax and insurance money. I’d rather pay them myself anyway.
You’ve got a good point there, Bad Andy. In fact, I may start doing the same…
“You’ve got a good point there, Bad Andy. In fact, I may start doing the same…”
Just to put it in dollars and cents, that’s $209 I’d flush every year by escrowing.
And sometimes they don’t pay it when you want it paid (based upon when the deduction might aid you the most).
Re Bad Andy interest calculation - I just ran the numbers using $233/month into an account @7.5% (generous) compounded monthly and get a $94 payback. Remember that you aren’t paying a lump sum, but rather impounding monthly.
“Re Bad Andy interest calculation - I just ran the numbers using $233/month into an account @7.5% (generous) compounded monthly and get a $94 payback. Remember that you aren’t paying a lump sum, but rather impounding monthly.”
LOL!!! $233 per month!!! LOL!!!! LOL!!! LOL!!! That doesn’t even cover my taxes! I live in South Florida! I pay $320 (roughly) in taxes and $166 in insurance.
Sorry, I thought you were talking about the $2800 taxes mentioned above.
That is a good point. I may be wrong, but I think most people lump it in with the mortgage payment. I think I’d prefer a once-a-year payment deal, myself. Since I’ve never owned before, I wasn’t aware that was an option (insurance, yes - taxes, didn’t think so).
Thanks!
It depends on how much equity you have. If you don’t have enough, the bank will require an escrow account as part of the loan conditions. If you have enough of a downpayment, then you can negotiate away the escrow.
Yeah, paying directly is the way to go. Watch out for fees though, ABM AMRO tried to slap a $150 fee on me to forgo escrow, but my lawyer spotted it and it was waived.
Paying through escrow also allows people to rationalize just how much their local governments are screwing them. Getting that bill yourself keeps you in touch with things - especially important in northern cities under the stranglehold of public sector unions.
“Paying through escrow also allows people to rationalize just how much their local governments are screwing them.”
True!
“It depends on how much equity you have. If you don’t have enough, the bank will require an escrow account as part of the loan conditions”
Untrue. Many banks will alow you to pay on your own regardless of equity. It’s a decision you must make at loan time. If your bank won’t allow it because of a lack of downpayment you have 2 options. 1) Find a different bank. 2) Have a down payment! If you don’t, home ownership isn’t for you!!!!!!
I think it easier to just put it into escrow each month with the mortgage (P&I) payment. Less to worry about AND the money in escrow earns interest from the time of receipt each month until the company dips into to pay the taxes. They even send you a 1099 on the interest earned. I don’t know about all companies, but I would think it is standard. So all in all, it is probably a wash and not worth the heartache to write the big check once or twice a year.
“Less to worry about …”
Obviously you aren’t from FL. If that mortgage company doesn’t get your insurance payment out in time you lose your insurance. Now try to replace it. Give up? So do most people and they end up in the state insurance company. I’ve never heard of a mortgage company paying interest on an escrow account. Maybe different out there in CA since it’s liberals run wild.
I’m in California, too. I had a choice between escrow or not, and chose escrow. I’ve never had any trouble with on-time payments and I do get interest paid on the escrow amount. I might be able to save a few dollars by paying my own insurance and taxes, but it just isn’t worth the hassle to me.
I used the escrow method back in the ’80’s when I bought a CA house. The bank was in Cincinnati (TransOhio Savings Bank). Each year I’d get notices from the bank that they were increasing my escrow amount. And each year I’d get late payment notices from Lee Buffington, our Tax Collector.
It was not until I refinanced did I realized what had been going on. TransOhio had been delinquent on Tax Payments for nearly two years and I was paying penalties for their mistakes.
I will NEVER trust another person to pay MY taxes with MY money again.
Live and learn.
Yeah, but frequently it is a requirement of the loan that the tax payment be escrowed. You might not have a choice in this.
During the boom, Realtors and loan officers avoided telling buyers about RE tax. They didn’t want to scare away potential FBs.
“‘This is nothing compared to 1980-’84, when the market was so slow you couldn’t give lots away,’ said Bill Carity, owner of Carity Land Development in Brookfield….”
Not Yet.
But coming soon.
Stupidest comment of the day:
“Regardless of where the building downturn is hitting, the underlying economics are undeniable, said Glendale appraiser Robert S. Schley Jr. ‘Not only has supply increased, but demand has slackened. Economics 101 tells you that if we don’t soon return to equilibrium, prices will fall,’ Schley said.”
If he actually took Econ 101, he’d know that prices falling IS WHAT RETURNS YOU TO EQUILIBRIUM.
Anybody who uses the phrase “Economics 101″ instantly loses all credibility in my eyes. The intro classes give you just enough theory to make cpmpletely wrong decisions and believe the B$ spewed on the WSJ editorial page.
Brooklynite, BA Economics
I have a BS In Economics. I got a laugh out of that. Completely true!
How many of these fools know what econometrics is?
Even if you have a graduate degree in econ, you can be a twit. This article describes research done by a prof I had in college. He had the reputation of being one of the smarter econ profs on campus.
http://www.collegenews.org/x5508.xml
It’s all about how there is no bubble, and in fact, home prices have been udervalued. It’s highly amusing, as it was written a year ago, and in the article he’s quoted as contending the Boston market is (was) 12% undervalued.I wonder if he could possibly be biased by his owning a very expensive Craftsman in Claremont, CA.
Yeah, you notice that all the brainiacs never mention Economics 100, which is surely a prerequisite for Econ 101.
I wonder how this will hurt employers all over the country. My husband has considered applying for a job in a different part of the state (MI), but frankly the thought of having to sell our house and getting stuck in a no-win situation like couple’s makes us think that we will stay put until this whole thing shakes out. And who knows how long that will be. Will companies start having to fork over additional money to help people move? Cover their costs until they can unload the house they had to leave behind when they relocated? Otherwise, how will they bring in talented people from outside their immediate geographic locations?
“Otherwise, how will they bring in talented people from outside their immediate geographic locations?”
Give the good jobs to renters.
Give the good jobs to ‘responsible’ renters with excellent credit.
A lot of companies give relo assistance to transferees or people taking new jobs in a different location. A relo company agrees to buy the house for an agreed price as determined by an appraiser.
A friend of mine and her husband took advantage of a deal like this when they moved about 1 1/2 years ago. The problem for the relo company is that when they finally sold the house, it sold for less than what it paid my friend for it. I can’t imagine many relo deals happening if they become losing propositions due to a declining market.
Kathy -
Yes, I’m familiar with relocation help that companies oftentimes offer, but do not know all the details about how it works. But how long can they do that if things continue to tank the way we are expecting? How many times can they take hits of tens of thousands of dollars when houses sell for less as you described? How can smaller or mid-sized companies do this over an extended period of time if this thing drags on for awhile? And when they do take a hit, those costs get passed along to guess who? You and me.
“Will companies start having to fork over additional money to help people move? Cover their costs until they can unload the house they had to leave behind when they relocated? ”
The company I work at, Pfizer, does relocation and just recently added a benefit with the closing of their Ann Arbor site. They will give you up to $100,000 to cover your housing loss if you relocate to one of the company’s other sites.
It all depends on how valuable of an employee you are to the company and can the relo assistance on the house sale can just be considered part of the overall benefit package associated with the job. They certainly won’t offer this deal to lower level employees or ones that are easily replaced at the other location.
Actually, that’s not true. They are offering this $100,000 benefit addition to anyone whose job is eliminated and decides to take a job at another location. Granted, managers may not decide to ‘hire’ someone very low level because it is probably easier to fill without all of the hassle of a move. But the policy is not for a certain level and above, just to be clear.
“Two years ago the Wirgau family’s 1,500-square-foot home was valued at $210,000. Today, it’s for sale at $180,000, just enough to pay the mortgage and the closing costs.”
IOW, the stucko price is 180k.
“IOW, the stucko price is 180k.”
Livonia is one of those towns in MI that went way up very fast. Price in 1999 for that home was $95K. By 2002 it was in the $210K range. Then everything in MI went flat. I’d say $95K is the target price over the next 5 years. If something doesn’t change very soon in MI, $95K will seem expensive in 10 years. There was no real “bubble” in MI. As long as the economy was good, wages could afford a $210K home. Now that it’s bad, wages afford a $125K home. It’s simple economics.
$95K seems low for 1,500 Livonia in ‘99, that would be $63 a square foot. Seems more like an early/mid 1990’s price. But, then I’m not familiar with the west side and using Warren as comparative (same housing stock, built around the same time but not as nice as Livonia).
“$95K seems low for 1,500 Livonia in ‘99, that would be $63 a square foot. Seems more like an early/mid 1990’s price. ”
Livonia was the “low cost” alternative to Canton. Prices there were similar to Westland until very late 90’s and early 00’s when prices exploded in Livonia and only skyrocketed in Westland. 1500 square feet on the used market wouldn’t fetch over $100K until late 1999 early 2000. It wouldn’t fetch $210K until ‘03ish after people caught on to the value that Livonia offered.
Can’t compare Warren. It’s been a see-saw over the last 15 or so years. First it’s a dump no one wants to live in, next it’s Sterling Heights’ cheap cousin, then the next big thing, then dump.
Westland and Livonia comparable? Livonia is much more white collar.
In the 1990’s Livonia and Westland were on the same page.
Are you sure you don’t mean Westland and Taylor? Sorry, I would have bought 5 houses in Livonia at $63 a sq/ft in the late 90’s, sorry just can’t see it.
Westland 48185 and 48186 are two different cities. 48185 bordering Canton is (was) quite white collar with some higher paid blue collar workers. 48186 bordering Inkster is very blue collar. In the early part of this decade, the prices in 48185 were $150K on up and in 48186 were $100K on up. That’s 50%. Maybe that’s where our unbelievable issue is.
As far as Livonia goes, the northwest side of town has always been a little pricey. I don’t know where the person in the article was from, but since they said $210K for 1500 square feet I’m assuming not northwest side. Anything south of 6 mile and east of Newburgh would have been really cheap in the late 90’s.
“Speculators Caught By Abrupt End of Boom”
That will be the epitaph for this stock market too. PE speculators hopefully get burned the worst but I’m not betting on that.
My guess is that this 8 month rally is wiped out entirely within 2 months or less when the top is finally established.
TX,
Did you catch the advice from the bankruptcy attorney in the Detroit News article? He says it is better to go into foreclosure for the following reason: Making payments on a home that is under equity, you’re literally throwing money down the drain … Say you go 10 months without paying a $1,500 mortgage — that’s $15,000 to start over. Why would you pay that money when you can live there rent-free for that time?
What’s your take — Agree or disagree?
Depends on what you’re planning to do in the next 10 years.
“Depends on what you’re planning to do in the next 10 years.”
BK will destroy your credit for a year. It will severly limit you for 3. After that it’s like it never happened from a credit standpoint. From an employer standpoint, a different story. Some may not want to hire you (although they cannot use it as the sole purpose for denying employment).
I have a friend who filed chapter 7 and had an A paper mortgage 2.5 years later + 4 credit cards w/standard rates. Of course that was in 2004 when money flowed like wine.
This is not the case if they end up with a fat 1099c. Filing bankruptcy on the IRS is much more complicated with longer waiting periods. These people could end up with tax leins and garnishments following them around for easily a decade.
Most banks prefer the keys, especially in a declining market. Otherwise, it is the loss incurred in 6 months of delay, plus the attorneys fees to foreclose. You won’t win a friend, but you avoid making a more hostile adversary.
“I have a friend who filed chapter 7 and had an A paper mortgage 2.5 years later + 4 credit cards w/standard rates. Of course that was in 2004 when money flowed like wine.”
Creditors (predatory type) see chapter 7 as a great thing. You can’t re-file another 7 for 8 years and they still get to charge a higher rate. Right after you can do business with any number of these creditors.
After 3 years of positive payment history, even the most conservative creditor will overlook most things…that includes a BK.
I astounds me that people think that they don’t have any options in a situation like this. Maybe its just me but I would do whatever possible to pay my bills and get the price down to where it would sell. Second job? You bet. Weekend work? You bet. Selling the house by dipping into savings and taking on the situation with MY terms, not the bank, absolutely. What happened to pride and responsibility? I can understand BK and foreclosure with medical bills in an extreeme case. Any other reason, I can’t. Job loss? Keep your work skills up. If that requires effort, so be it. How people think they are trapped and that they “deserve something” boggles my mind. Rant off.
“Keep your work skills up.”
That’s right, the global economy takes no prisoners and its only going to get more competitive. The days of relying on one job or one skill set are over. Still, so many feel they’ve “arrived” when they buy real estate - go figure.
One of my favorite quotes regarding your position in the world went something like
“It’s your responsibility to stay relevent.”
Obviously, you’ve lived a charmed life. Not everyone is so fortunate. Perhaps what you need is a dose a bad luck to change your ‘perfect’ view of life.
Wow - totally disagree with you. Sure, not everyone is fortunate. But guess what? Not everyone is as pathetic as they are acting lately. Boo frickin’ hoo that you bought too much house. YOUR fault. You and only your are responsible for your actions and decisions. People need to stop crying the blues and take responsibility. Being a single mom getting absolutely NO assistance (in any form - not even living with my parents like many other single parents that I know are doing), paying all my bills, and even saving money *gasp!* I know of what I speak. Am I fortunate? Hell no. Am I playing victim? Hell no! I have far too much self-respect for that.
Rant OFF!
Nope, you are not that fortunate and neither am I. I work hard, save my money and trust the government not to lie to me. They do. But that is no reason for me to be angry and bitter about people who may or may not have had an ulterior move in purchasing their homes…
Words to live by. We need more moms single or married like you. Your children will grow up learning fiscal responsiblity. Don’t spend what you don’t have. I’d like to see our society move back towards that line of thinking. This cradle to grave mentality has got to go. The only way people learn is by experience. If there experience is being bailed out everytime they make a mistake, they will continually make mistakes. If they are foced to face the music they will learn.
ylekiot1…Why do people walk so easy ? Because they don’t have any down payment in the house in alot of cases .These no down sub-prime buyers are the creeps that the REIC got to buy these POS houses at the high of the mania market . These borrowers will walk just as easy as they signed the papers to buy the place .
How can anyone dispute that putting these clown borrowers on sub-prime low-down teasr rate loans was simply a act of stretching out a false mania and keeping the party going .These borrowers will pay top dollar for a house because they move in without any down-payment .
Now the lenders have the wonderful 2006 borrowers that can’t even make the first payments .
You’ve gotta read the bankruptcy attorney’s advice in the Detroit News article. He says couples like the Wirgau’s are throwing money away once the property’s value drops below their loan value and even suggest they live rent free by stimulating the foreclosure process and saving their mortgage money for a new start.
“…and even suggest they live rent free by stimulating the foreclosure process and saving their mortgage money for a new start.”
That’s good advice as long as the “investors” are holding the bag with houses they can’t flip. You can always find someone to rent to you regardless of credit. First, last, and security is enough in most cases.
If the market turns around and renters return to apartment complexes this advice could be very painful. Complexes owned by corporations have standards that they can’t bend on because everyone must be treated the same. So if they say no late pays in the last 3 years and no BK in the last 7, that means they can’t make exception to the policy.
If couples like the Wirgau’s and specuvestors start doing what the BK attorney suggested then REOs are going to shoot through the roof. A ton of people are going to be underwater soon.
You could do what saw some of the people in Houston do back in the 80s. When they saw the train wreck coming and couldn’t sell their house in order to move and before their credit was completely screwed, they bought their new home (in a declining market often for less) and THEN handed the keys back to the bank. I suspect that their credit suffered, but assuming that they could pay some of their bills but not 2 mortgage payments, having to deal with 1 stiffed creditor is easier than having to deal with 10 in the bankruptcy court, especially with the amendments to the bankruptcy code.
I forgot to mention that it worked best if you rented the first house out for WHATEVER they could get. So, maybe some rent declines?
What happened to pride and responsibility?
They have become unprofitable.
I’m not surprised that people are beginning to act like corporations. When you conduct daily business with entities that do not play by the rules, then you are at a disadvantage for clinging to quaint ideas about pride and responsibility. If you can get away with letting someone else pay for your mistakes, why not?
Or they play by the rules…..that they wrote, which are loaded with disclaimers and addendums totally designed to allow them to weasel out of whatever commitments they have contracted to do.
Or “Warranties” from contractors who file bankruptcy as soon as their shoddy buisiness practices start to catch up with them.
Nice article from the Detroit News Ben. It fully describes the outcome for a lot of regular people. You could stencil this scenario all across the country.
As someone that was involved in land development 6-7 years ago, it always stunned me that they kept spec building in Metro Detroit. The long term economic prospects were never that good and all it was doing was encouraging people to move from the mature suburbs (like Livonia) to the outer rings. More parking lots, etc. A number of these suburban fringe developers have long since gone belly up (except the big boys, like Pulte) because people in Livonia couldn’t sell so as to buy further out.
part II of A Flipper’s Delight: Tuscany Hills is available for viewing. No 6 foreclosures on one street this time, this one just has 3 foreclosures, but with 2 right next to each other, one has a tree fallen in front and the other completely yellow lawn with a BMW 7 series parked next to it. Got to love the irony.
LMAO! Of course I must correct you concerning ‘Ms Filpper.’ She is real and lives down the street from me in So Cal.
‘It’s like musical chairs. These people kept developing, leveraged to the hilt, as the market changed. Now the boom is over, and they’re stuck without a chair,’ said Steven G. Stiloski, president of the Appraisal Institute’s Wisconsin chapter.”
What a brilliant analogy. How many years have people here been talking about ‘When the music stops’?
Hi i am an ardent fan of this blog. i have been follwoing since last sept mostly in ROM. i live MA and me and my wife went an open house this sunday the sellr is asking for 640k. and the house is in the market for last 40 days. appriased at 600k . built in 1998 2500sqft 2 car guarage . seller paid 450k in 2001 for this house. how much i should be paying for this house.
Learn to spell and use uppercase where appropriate, to make it readable, and we might be able to help you.
But seriously, the seller and appraiser are probably way off. Since I’m not in MA, I can’t give you a good guess, and even those who *are* there would need to know a lot more than just what you’ve said.
Want to make an offer they’ll accept? Probably 580k. Maybe even $550k. Depends on the seller’s situation. Should you pay that much for the house? I doubt it, but I don’t have enough info to know for sure. Even if the house is “worth it”, what’s the ratio of the 30-year fixed mortgage payment to your salary? Too many unknowns for us.
If it’s appraised at 600K why would you pay a penny more?
And you better not pay a penny more because the lender won’t be pleased about that when you ask for 80% financing of the full $640k.
If you’re looking at a 20% down payment requirement, you’re now talking 20% of $600k ($120k) *plus* whatever extra the sales price would be above $600k. So if it’s $640k, figure on $120k+$40k. Plus closing costs. You’d be nuts to do it in this market.
(One of my friends had buyers fall through because the appraisal only came out to about 78% of the agreed sale price. The buyers still wanted it, but the bank would only finance 80% of that lower appraisal value, not of the sales price, and they couldn’t get the extra money together, nor were they willing to borrow more on a higher-interest second mortgage.)
“Real estate industry veterans say it’s not them stuck without a chair. ‘We’re not that stupid. We knew this was coming,’ said Mark Lake, director of development at Redmond Residential of Wisconsin.”
Another gem from an earlier post on the blog; “All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.”
- Arthur Schopenhauer
(1788-1860)
good find
we’re not stupid, just BK’d
“All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.”
- Arthur Schopenhauer
(1788-1860)
Sounds like Greenspan has finally arrived at the third stage.
A few stats from areas mentioned in the post. These are based on asking / wishing prices from the MLS, but here goes.
Milwaukee-Racine, WI - Land
Total Propertie: 3,322
Average Price: $191,695.21
Median Price: $109,900.00
Avg Sq F: 547,028
Price per Sq Ft: $5.25
Detroit-Ann Arbor-Flint, MI - Single Family
Total Properties: 73,038
Average Price: $233,806.33
Median Price: $169,900.00
Avg Sq Ft: 1,767
Price per Sq Ft: $119.68
The number of homes in the MLS in metro Detroit is pretty amazing. Compare that 73,000 number to San Diego where there are 11,000 single family homes on the market.
“The number of homes in the MLS in metro Detroit is pretty amazing. Compare that 73,000 number to San Diego where there are 11,000 single family homes on the market.”
That doesn’t include new homes that aren’t listed on the MLS because the builders are stuck with canceled contracts. Many in Novi, Northville, Canton, and other similar areas have dozens of homes in each development that have been build and backed out on.
I wish I could have seen the inventory #’s in 2006. At least in GP it was worse - weirdly things seem to be selling now and not much new stuff coming on.
Subdivisions for 150 homes with 12 lonely ones done…
There are really almost *seven* times the single-family homes for sale in the Detroit-Flint-AnnArbor MSA than there are in SD MSA?!
That’s bizarre….
There is such disconnect, interestingly, between what the Detroit News reports and what the Ann Arbor News reports. The Detroit News prints all these bits about foreclosures and pain and screwed borrowers, but apparently none of that happens here in AA at all. We don’t even acknowledge much that it might be happening a couple exits away on the highway. Only now that Pfizer is shutting down the plant and we’re losing at least 2500 jobs, with some UM economists modeling that it really means a loss of 4000-6000 jobs, does it even come up that RE might be hurting here. But the auto industry affects us too…when I was on jury duty last year a full third of the prospective jurors and the plaintiff too worked for Ford or GM. We just like to think we’re immune here…a realtor once told me it’s like the Palo Alto of the midwest here. Finally, though, and sadly, people on even these streets are scared. Homeowners I know are talking about how RE is totally down the toilet for years to come. Thus, they say, it’s a great time to buy! Huh?! Where’s the bottom?! Not even close…
oh, say the columns, the realtors aren’t sure what effect all the Pfizer transferee’s homes coming on the market might have…well, they said in a report this week, if they come on gradually over the next year, they might get absorbed with little impact. The AA news is running profiles all week of people who say oh, I could never leave AA, it’s too great. They’ll just hunt for the ever-decreasing job pool around here and stay, they won’t put their house up for sale. It’ll be so interesting to see how it actually plays out.
I think the inventory here is low-ish recently because a lot of people just took their homes off the market, waiting til things got better and they could get the price they feel they deserved, or needed to get. Those Pfizer people who leave, and who just got an offer from Pfizer to be paid the difference if their homes sell below ‘value’ (I thought the homes value was whatever someone was willing to pay for it?! silly me!) up to 100K worth!, will be needing to sell right away I presume. Pfizer is offering them real estate services…I wonder if they’ll bring in realtors and tell them to just get these houses sold!
There has been a little uptick in sales recently here maybe like in GP, from people who had been chomping at the bit no doubt or transferred in or whatever and will believe that oh, buy now, it’s cheap!, but prices are only starting to come down the slightest bit. I’m tired of the mass psychosis. The news reported that some realtors got calls from clients, pfizer employees and not, saying hey, lower the price of my house before things get terrible. or hey, sell my house now before the prices decline further! And the realtor, in this case Martin Bouma a guy who had been relatively honest but had some good sales figures last month and is feeling cocky I think, said to them wait a minute, don’t panic or try to sell your house for “less than it’s worth”! No, panic! Indeed, good to try and stay ahead of the deluge!
“Wally Neumann said the Summit property on which he advertised a ‘drastically reduced’ price proved to have only five salable lots instead of the envisioned nine.
The price reduction ‘has nothing to do with a soft market,’ he said.”
Wally and The Beaver are going to do a ‘Positive Thinking’ seminar here in So Cal…be sure to sign up.
Never underestimate the power of positive thinking. Look at what it has done and continues to do for Casey Serin. People need to realize true economic opportunities are found in the macroenvironment by way of environmental sensing not simply and solely from within.
’speculators got caught by the abrupt end of the boom”
I suspect we’ll see the same thing from Chinese stock punters, US stock buyers, yen carry trade players, and people like Harry Marklowe, who just plunked down $6.6 Billion to buy a Manhattan office portfolio with a 3% cap rate.
Excess liquidity has come from 4 sources:
1 - US housing / subprime
2 - Yen carry trade
3 - High oil prices (Arab sheiks plowing money into RE, PE, etc.)
4 - Excessive use of derivatives (now approx. 900% of global GDP).
#1 is now imploding, as we see from the ABX index.
#2 might be, as the Yen trades below 119 this morning.
#3 could happen if the economy really slows
#4 could happen as investors try to decrease leverage and/or we see some counterparty failures.
Leverage is a wonderful thing in a bull market, but hell to pay in a bear market…..
Leverage tends to create bull markets in the first place.
Liking reit shorts. They’re just starting to break down.
Oh and by the way, Martin Armstrong called for a turn down in the market to happen on Feb. 27th of this year. He made the call back in 1999…..
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html
Don’t worry, it appears the time to go long the market again will be on April 23, 2009….
Existing home sales 6.4 v. 6.24 exp
m/m 3.0 vs. 0.3 exp
lenders might bounce on this
since jan 05 ?
those folks made out great !
At fire sale prices, no doubt.
yoy prices down 3.1% 9 (Note: this does not include the $10,000+ kickbacks after closing)
Shanghai stock exchange today.
249 of the 300 stocks traded were limit down (10%).
Fun fact for all you Asiaphiles.
Oh and btw. People in the US don’t know how to gamble.
The FT reported that people in Shanghai have been taking in their mortgage deeds to pawn shops to raise cash so that they could punt on the stock market in Shanghai. Now that’s how you really leverage a position!!!
why those morally corrupt and decadent Asians…
tsk tsk how could they?
OMG! We did the same crap in 1929 but we’ve come a long way since then and are much more creative. Over here we did the opposite. People took money out of their retirement accounts to play the housing market. After that they took money out of their housing gains to double down on the housing market. Some even got to play without any money down!
The more you buy, the more you make. 100 house is better than 10 houses. But what does a investor do when the market goes down. Cash is King.
Thanks for pointing that out. None of the major news mentioned the 10% stop.
So, will Shanghai take 10% off a day for the rest of this week?
Free link on the pawn shop leverage game here:
http://aletheia22.wordpress.com/2007/02/06/pawn-your-house-to-go-long-china-mobile/
Jesus! Whatever. Amazing to see pure raw greed unbound.
“‘Some banks are even paying people to give their houses back, even on a short sale.”
For the last week, I’ve been jumping through hoops on an estate, trying to get all the payout paperwork done for 3 beneficiaries of an annuity. Now, everything’s ready to go, and I get a call this morning from one of the beneficiaries, asking me to “hold off”. “Pray tell, why?” I ask.
He lives in Denver, and is trying to short-sale his house. He doesn’t want the bank to see a big jump in assets. His quick assessment: “I never should have bought here”. D’uh.
win, IIRC you’re a PA atty…can I ask you a relatively simple PA question offline?
(I could call my attorney but he’ll give me a longwinded response and at the end of 20 mins. I still won’t know whatTF he said.)
Sure, Pgal:
winjr ‘at’ aol.com
If it’s tax or estate related, I can definately answer the question. If it’s anything else, I can try.
well it’s not criminal defense…I usually go to Legal Aid for that…
hehehe
tx for reply, I’ll contact you
So called conservative Wisconsin has been under the illusion that they are immune to the speculative housing/land boom and bust DUE to the RE Propaganda of the 2 main state newspapers and RE media.
Many will be singing “Jingle Keys, Jingle Keys…Jingle ALL the Way” before next Christmas Eve.The need for greed will take it’s toll here too.
What a genius. One wonders why he didn’t “cover all the angles” when he bought an overpriced home with an ARM he cannot afford.
“If we’re not out of here by then, something’s gotta give,” Wirgau said.
Relax, Wirgau. All the “experts” are predicting that the worst is over. Nothing to worry about!
Something’s gotta give? Like how about his savings NOW, not later? Give THAT, dude.
“They’re considering lowering the price of their home and dipping into their savings to pay the bank the difference. Even then, there’s no guarantee that their house will sell.”
So you mean the guy has money in savings, sees this declining market, and he won’t even put his own money on the line to try and get rid of this albatross? Jeez!
” In July, the family’s adjustable rate mortgage will jump from 5.25 percent to 8.25 percent, costing another $250 a month. A property tax bill of $2,800 will be due.”
From 5.25 to 8.25! Even MORE incentive to put his savings up in order to bring down the price of that place for a buyer! So instead, he hopes wistfully for a buyer from heaven, and he’ll just continue to see the situation worsen month by month, as he stands there doing nothing like a deer in the headlights.