Warm Weather & Blooming Flowers Won’t Rescue Builders
Some housing bubble news from Wall Street. “Overseas buying of new Freddie Mac notes on Tuesday was sub-par compared with a string of deals drawing near-record purchases. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have consistently sold at least half of their new note issues this year outside of North America. The securities draw buyers seeking high-grade U.S. debt with higher yields than Treasuries.”
“The distribution of new Freddie notes placed overseas on Tuesday dipped to 45 percent. ‘There could be a few reasons: the Japanese year end is coming up..maybe the Chinese are looking at other products like mortgage-backed securities, which have cheapened up recently,’ said K.N. Sundararajan.”
“‘In our view, the system ‘works’ as long as overseas sales average 35 percent or greater over time,’ said Jim Vogel. ‘Consistently lower than that would require wider spreads to clear the domestic market for $5 billion issues.’”
“Fannie Mae on Wednesday said it would update investors on its business and an $11 billion restatement process next week, a day before a U.S. House panel holds a hearing on the company’s accounting scandal.”
And on the homebuilders. “Homebuilding stocks came under pressure Wednesday after one analyst cut his earnings forecast for the group for 2006 and 2007, citing order drops and other negative housing fundamentals that he says not even the spring selling season can save. Analyst Stephen East wrote, ‘We distinctly are not in the camp that the sky is falling; but it is pretty overcast right now.’”
“‘The hope of many in the industry that the spring selling season will save the day is just not in the cards,’ he said.”
“‘We have discussed many times that we believe we are in that transition phase from hyper-growth to sustainable growth, and that the phase would be painful. Well, it is painful, and much like the teenage years, it is just a phase that all must endure. Unfortunately for those banking on a spring selling season rescue, the transition is in place and we do not see it reversing just because the weather warmed up and the flowers bloomed,’ East wrote.”
“East’s concern is that builders’ difficulties over the last three months show a changed level of housing demand that is not yet reflected in Street estimates. He also notes that interest rates could move up more than expected. East believes homebuilder stocks have a Fed funds rate of 5% priced in; however, he said he isn’t sure if a 5.25% or 5.5% level is priced in.”
‘other products like mortgage-backed securities, which have cheapened up recently’
This has been a running issue behind the scenes. The mortgage REITs are discounting paper to get rid of the higher risk loans. Who knows, it may ‘cheapen up’ some more!
Macroblog has cool charts every Monday showing the predicted probabilities of fed funds rates. As of last Monday, they are showing about a 33% chance of 5.25 by the June meeting.
“Sustainable growth” is a Wall Street fiction that pervades analysis of all industries. The reality is growth rates are constantly changing but analysts and their models can’t handle the second derivative.
Especially when the second derivative goes persistently negative with no end in sight…
OT theory: If interest rates spike, those who find themselves in trouble on fixed mortgages will have an easier time getting short sales. Why? Because the bank would have some incentive to clear out a loan that was giving them a negative revenue due to unfavorable interest spreads. The interesting question is, will the owner get 1099′d for the full ’short,’ or are they required to offset it with the interest ‘losses’ that the bank also avoided?
Interesting questions. I don’t see why you would have to book a gain on a 1099 when the bank writes off part of your bad loan if you sell the house and have a capital loss of an equal amount. I guess you are saying if the person stays in the house. Does the 11k gift exemption for both you and your spouse apply?
Luckily those of us who read this blog won’t have to deal with these issues.
I believe I know the answer but I will defer to LALAW…
Where are you LA ?
I believe the bank can 1099 for whatever amount forgiven. The borrower received that money. Just because they already wasted it on a house they no longer own, doesn’t mean they didn’t get the money. It does not have anything to do with any possible amount of interest the bank “could have/or could not have” earned.
Interesting theory about banks being more willing to agree to short sales when they know the interest rate they are receiving is below the current market rate. Usually the amount the bank is eating on the deal is pretty huge though, they wouldn’t recoup it with a higher interest loan for a long long time.
I did many many short sales back in the day (early 90’s) and they are no picnic. Not for the borrower, not for the lender and not for the realtor. I have never worked for so little per hour as trying to push through a short sale.
Many financial entities that operate as subprime lenders are getting out of the business. Many mortgage REITs are exiting their portfolios of such mortgages. The liquidity for creating sub prime mortgages is disappearing. Sub prime borrowers are finding less opportunity to get such mortgages. Adjustible mortgages in the order of $600 billion will reset in the next 14 months with greater defaults. Defaults will pass into the GSEs and derivatives further hurting the credit ratings for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
Do you have some good links on the above? I have to believe the lenders are tightening on these kind of loans, I’d love to see some facts on that. Thanks
You would think wouldn’t you my inbox is filled everday with people who would beg to differ
“‘We have discussed many times that we believe we are in that transition phase from hyper-growth to sustainable growth, and that the phase would be painful. Well, it is painful, and much like the teenage years, it is just a phase that all must endure.”
I guess this is an ok quote, since it covers a variety of “pain in our teenage years”….
Some teenagers had white glove pain- barely felt.
AND
Some teenagers got the $h!t beat out of ‘em.
Wondering which level of pain he was referring to???
I think he’s referring to the going out with buddies, drinking a case of Schlitz, throwing up on grandma’s heirloom rug, then getting grounded for the rest of your high school years.
schlitz u must be from wisconsin.my dad was a bartender for many years at sclhitz in van nuys doing night shift.this was after being a mailman all day and only getting 4 hours sleep paying his mortgage in the 60s.these kids got it easy now free monet for a mtge.also yesterday i helped a customer ans out of the blue he asked if i need a home loan.he said he needs to get the renters into homes cause sales are slow.i said the party is over and real estate is going down the tubes and i had already sold 3 homes and i am happy renting with my cds paying all my rent.this kid was no more than 25 yo and had no money so he wanted to use his check card and was relieved when it went through/i tore him a new a h*ole about the crappy loans he has been making.i also asked him if sales were off 50% like ive been hearing here in san fernando valley and i got a blank stare.my impression is its off more than that and judging by the closed sales in the paper it looks more like 60% at least.
Or maybe drinking a case of Schlitz, then crashing the car into a tree and meeting an early demise.
i had pimples
When building of homes flattens the building of detention camps will provide new work.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22241875
With a maximum total value of $385 million over a five-year term, consisting of a one-year based period and four one-year options, the KBR contract, which is effective immediately, provides for establishing temporary detention and processing capabilities to augment existing ICE Detention and Removal Operations (DRO) Program facilities in the event of an emergency influx of immigrants into the U.S., or to support the rapid development of new programs.
Whew… for a second I thought you said concentration camps.
Yeah, I’m expecting a big surge of immigrants into this country during a recession/depression. It is curious that the president signed several presidential emergency orders late last year that essentially suspends the constitution during declared emergency’s.
Can anyone come up with a plausible emergency that would require the detention of large groups of americans throughout the U.S.? (bird-flu, civil unrest?) Any ideas?
Oh sure, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if immigrants come over in huge numbers when we go into recession/depression. They’ll be so many jobs!
Any idea why the U.S. would be planning for widespread detentions for millions of americans in the near future? Civil unrest, Bird-flu?
BTW, I read that the president signed several presidential emergency orders that effectively suspended the constitution during time of declared emergencies. Nice, can hardly wait to make the jump back to third world status.
This is just a hint of some real scary stuff going on behind the scenes by the neo-cons. Keep supporting these jerks and see what you get.
This is all conspiracy theory hooey. The “camps” are simply centers for Mexican illegals, who are being processed for returning to Mexico. Currently, most states do not hold them because there are no facilities for doing so, but the public in border states has become very vocal on the subject. The governors of New Mexico, Arizona, and Texas have all asked for the Feds to do something.
The Constitution isn’t in danger, Nazis are not taking over the Government. People said the same under Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Regan, Bush Sr., and Clinton. They didn’t say it under Carter, but they did say he was destroying the country. However, it’s still standing, and we have more freedoms now than then.
The safety deposit box story is another dubious Internet rumor already dealt with in detail by scopes.com. Here is the link:
http://www.snopes.com/politics/business/safedeposit.asp
When I was growing up, people who believed in irrational, global conspiracies (a.k.a. schizophrenics) were hospitalized and medicated. Now they have their own Web sites, and sell books to legions of True Believers. Spreading rumors for political or other reasons is pathological.
The fact is, that David Icke is not informed, but insane, there are no lizard people coming to eat us, Masons (even those of 33nd “degree” or higher) do not sacrifice childrenhttp://www.masonicinfo.com/33rdsrule.htm and the world is not coming to an end.
I thought this was a bubble site, not a soapbox for fanatics.
“This is just a hint of some real scary stuff going on behind the scenes by the neo-cons. Keep supporting these jerks and see what you get.”
What a load. If there were “real scary stuff going on behind the scenes” you wouldn’t know about it. That’s what BEHIND THE SCENES means. How come every crackpot with a blog knows all the details of these alleged conspiracies?
As it says on the scopes site:
“Whenever people are feeling uneasy and unsure about the state of the world, we begin to see articles about some draconian measures the government is supposedly planning to enact when a looming crisis comes to pass — secret measures intended to keep the citizenry in their place and prevent them from revolting, but inadvertently revealed to the public through happenstance. In the months leading up to the Y2K “crisis” in late 1999, the hot item of the moment was an alleged plot by the government to use the chaos created by Y2K failures as an excuse for imposing martial law in the U.S. (plans fortuitously given away when alert citizens spotted “MARTIAL LAW” signs being carried in cargo trucks); in early 2006 the hot item is a supposed plan by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to prevent bank customers from removing “weapons, cash, gold, or silver” from their safe deposit boxes “in the event of a national disaster.”
You obviously haven’t done your homework. Wake up, the evidence is all around you. “Conspiracy Theory” is a term used to squelch inconvenient questions about what our government is doing. And don’t believe everything you read on snopes!
Actually, I have done my homework. I’ve spent most of adult life dealing with rumors and the witless horrors who spread them, and the damage you people do is incalculable. How do you think witch hunts got started? The paranoid mob with torches is a constantly repeated horror on this planet. Remember the story of Jesus? How about Frankenstein’s monster?
The reality is that YOU do not matter to this government, and YOU are not the center of any conspiracy other than your own.
As for not believing everything on Snopes, how about not believing everying on David Icke’s site? Credulous gossips and rumor mongers have caused more murders, more torture, more wars, and more genocide than anybody else on this planet.
If you don’t know the facts–with irrefutable evidence to support them–say nothing. The reason we presume persons innocent in this country till proved guilty beyond ALL REASONABLE DOUBT is because reality and apparent reality are often two entirely different matters. That’s also why we have slander and libel laws: Because people like you feel free to say anything about anybody based on nothing more than fantasy.
Internet tale-bearers, gossips, conspiracy fakers, and others don’t deserve a moment’s recognition. Before the Internet, they would never have found a serious audience for their rubbish, but now they find each other like roaches, and think themselve vidicated because they are not alone. On a planet of seven or eight billion people, even ten million like-believers is nothing more than a drop in the bucket.
I return to my original observation: This is a housing bubble blog, not a platform for paranoid schizophrenics and political bomb-throwers trying to smear those they don’t like. I can give you a catalogue of Web sites, authors, and investigators who deal day and day out with urban legends, fantasies, and outright fabrications such as the safety deposit box story. Snopes just happens to be one the easiest and fastest to access.
Don’t look now, but there is a witch peeking in your window, and a demon under your bed. And you’ve also been selected the winner of the Publishers’ Clearinghouse Sweepstates.
Boo.
I saw a black helicopter once…
That my lizard alien master’s.
I think the far-sighted authorities are building protective custody camps for all the real-estate touts and slimeball mortage brokers. A few layers of concertina wire and armed guards would be just the thing to protect them from the wrath of enraged, homeless mobs of post-bubble FBs.
Also, these defunct condos can fill up with Section 8s! Wouldn’t it be funny if the bankrupt speculators end up living in their original apartment with Section 8 money!
(BTW: Those of use who are old enough to have been around through a number of economic cycles will remember these things as having actually happened. In the 70s, for example once-luxury apartments and hotels on Long Beach Long Island filled with welfare cases and mental patients. Of course in the 90s they were all gone and the buildings were “luxury” again. But these things can and do happen!)
BTW this forum on silicon Investor is an exellent starting point if you are interested in bubble economics, housing, inflation/deflation etc.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=54034
A buddy of mine contributes to the siliconinvestor thread.
He has his own website, full of fun financial observations here:
http://worldmarket.blogspot.com/
Let’s go back in time, to say May 2005. Looks like “Wang” may have been early, but spot on:
Scroll down to “Update on E-mail Traffic”
http://worldmarket.blogspot.com/2005_05_01_worldmarket_archive.html#111724301708286232
Comment by dutchie
2006-03-08 14:10:42
When building of homes flattens the building of detention camps will provide new work.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22241875
With a maximum total value of $385 million over a five-year term, consisting of a one-year based period and four one-year options, the KBR contract, which is effective immediately, provides for establishing temporary detention and processing capabilities to augment existing ICE Detention and Removal Operations (DRO) Program facilities in the event of an emergency influx of immigrants into the U.S., or to support the rapid development of new programs.
Reply to this comment
Comment by tauceti96
2006-03-08 14:21:02
Whew… for a second I thought you said concentration camps.
Like there is much of a difference?
“The contract may also provide migrant detention support to other U.S. Government organizations in the event of an immigration emergency, as well as the development of a plan to react to a national emergency, such as a natural disaster. In the event of a natural disaster, the contractor could be tasked with providing housing for ICE personnel performing law enforcement functions in support of relief efforts.”
Did I read this correctly? A new place to put illegal immigrants, annoying citizen rioters, and possibly a place for the guards to live. (Why the sudden interest in building these things now?)
Sorry for my double post above, my computer indicated that my first post got “lost”.
I’ve been aware of this award to KBR for a few weeks and posted that article to several sites with similar remarks. I get a totally “ho-hum” response to this revelation and can’t quite understand it.
Our government is building detention facilities to house millions of people within our borders and folks can’t pull themselves away from american idol long enough to even register concern?
Perhaps I’m overreacting but I find this revelation to be quite chilling and certainly would like to understand what “immigration emergency” they are anticipating? We have been flooded with illegals for the last 10 years with nary a mention about this issue from our national leadership. Now, on the cusp of a recession/depression, they are concerned about a large influx? I don’t buy it and no one else should either. I suppose no one will give a shit about any of this until it is too late but something bad is coming our way.
Asked myself the same question as I read in several articles that your government does not want to put a high priority on stopping illegal immigration as that would would be bad for the economy.
I do remember some some articles about forced quarantine in case of bird-flu, but my ‘wild’ guess would be that it is Patriot Act related.
The same act that also provides other governmental powers e.g. seize financial assets. Red somewhere that bank personnel was instructed last year how to handle governmental inspection… and btw notification of the banks customer that inspection happened is an offence under the law. Also large crackdown has happened on taxheavens and offshore money.
There are a lot of dots….. may be just irrelevant coincidences.
If there is an economic meltdown somewhere in the future your assets may not be safe at the bank. It would not be the first time. The US government did outlaw possesion of gold before and confiscated it for her own use.
I do remember some some articles about forced quarantine in case of bird-flu, but my ‘wild’ guess would be that it is Patriot Act related.
The same act that also provides other governmental powers e.g. seize financial assets. Red somewhere that bank personnel was instructed last year how to handle governmental inspection… and btw notification of the banks customer that inspection happened is an offence under the law. Also large crackdown has happened on taxheavens and offshore money.
There are a lot of dots….. may be just irrelevant coincidences.
If there is an economic meltdown somewhere in the future your assets may not be safe at the bank. It would not be the first time. The US government did outlaw possesion of gold before and confiscated it for her own use.
I don’t think these are “coincidences” and it doesn’t sound like you do either.
I did read about the bank procedures, although those are still firmly in the “rumor” column.
I don’t have an opinion on the gold confiscation issue. Mainly because I don’t think the quantity available to confiscate would be worth the political/international fallout from that move. Not because I feel that the gov’t is above such a move. As a matter of fact. My senator (Judd Gregg, NH) wrote me a letter explaining that it is perfectly legal for the gov’t to confiscate both gold and silver under emergency acts still in force (two separate acts). This was in response to a letter I sent asking him about this possibility.
The detention camps are clearly for americans, although I have no idea what scenario that they are preparing for. It is comforting to know that this gov’t really has no regard for the constitution and won’t be bothered by any formalities in trying to uphold it.
PS. It is my opinion that this format of expression (internet) is clearly incompatible with the type of gov’t we are watching evolve. My guess is that the internet will have to be curtailed in some manner in the next few years.
The same act that also provides other governmental powers e.g. seize financial assets. Red somewhere that bank personnel was instructed last year how to handle governmental inspection… and btw notification of the banks customer that inspection happened is an offence under the law. Also large crackdown has happened on taxheavens and offshore money.
There are a lot of dots….. may be just irrelevant coincidences.
Interesting, as I had a friend of mine (and former business associate) message me about a month ago with a link concerning the security of Bank of America’s safety deposit boxes. It seems that Bank of America employees have been undergoing discrete training seminars on how to deal with government agents coming and holding the contents of security boxes in their banks during the event of national disaster. As she had her stash of jewelry and a few other important documents in a BoA safety deposit box, she immediately retrieved the contents and made them go elsewhere, as well as instructing me to do the same with my personal items.
http://forum.truthout.org/blog/story/2006/1/25/184329/979
I believe that is the link she sent me, I hope it comes up for you folks here.
Quote from the article:
“During these last two days, the workshop included members from Homeland Security Office, who instructed them on how to field calls from customers and what they are to tell them in the event of a national disaster. She said they were told how only agents from Homeland Security (during such an event) would be in charge of opening safe deposit boxes and determining what items would be given to bank customers.
At this point they were told that no weapons, cash, gold, or silver will be allowed to leave the bank - only various paperwork will be given to its owners. After discussing the matter with them at length, she and the other employees were then told not to discuss the subject with anyone.”
If this is true, it sounds quite scary.
I can see why my friend had a right to be worried, as jewelry was supposedly some of the items that would fall under the “silver and gold” category. I don’t blame her for wanting to keep her keepsake and family jewelry out of the hands of Uncle Sam.
http://www.snopes.com/politics/business/safedeposit.asp
Teenage years?
Gosh, I’m a little older. The biggest thing we had to worry about was the Jocks fighting the Burnouts.
Or- will the guy at the local beer store take away my fake ID if he sees that I used makeup and pencil to change the ____ to a _____.
These days you aren’t cool unless you pimp out your girlfriend for money at a high school party so you can get money to buy speed.
After that, you go back to her divorced moms house to steal credit card numbers on the internet (cause mom’s never home since she works two jobs).
Then, same girlfriend, 14 or 15, does a nude masterbation scene on her web cam to lure in older guys so you both can blackmail them for money for crank.
(”You give us $6,000 or we’re talking to Primetime Live, buddy!”)
(Of course, the national media will defend the little sociopathic brats, claiming they were ‘victimized’- and ‘neglected’ by mom.)
Ah, teenage life in California.
Things certainly have changed.
Which teenage years did he mean?
Mine, or theirs?
Boy, this thread is boring compared to whatever you got going on over on the nude masturbation thread. Can you give us a link and I’ll ask my wife if I can go. Thanks
I thought we ALL were master debating on this blog?
Talk to any teen in Laguna Beach, Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, Corona Del Mar, or visit myspace.com and you’ll have all the info you need.
I forgot shopping, by the way.
Crank and shopping are the two major vices for California teens these days.
Smoking?
Heck, that’s soooo waaaay over.
It may be shocking, but what I’ve described is a DIRECT result of the housing bubble.
If real estate didn’t cost so much, divorced mom wouldn’t have to work two or three jobs, and she’d actually be able to look after her little monster daughter, or son.
Yes, California teens have taken ‘the teenage years’ to a whole new dimension in the OC.
And no, you won’t see this on ‘The OC’.
It is, however, reality.
Talk to a teen sometime.
You’ll see.
It’s not any different that it’s ever been. Didn’t you ever see Less than Zero?
This thread sadly degenerated. Could we please address the subject of why the homebuilder stocks are having such a hard time dropping down to their historical valuation levels in the face of a steady drumbeat of bad news?
So no more black hee-lee-oh-kopters, grey and red aliens, or Majestic 12? Sheesh!
That is easy, stucco. The guvmint wants everybody to be comfortable. If the housing stocks plummet, people might talk. So they send the Plunge Protection Team in to clean up things. Ever hear of Richard Russell? He has been writing the Dow Theory Letter since 1953. He is a pretty wise fella. He recently mentioned the market might have been manipulated and drew this rather interesting response from a long time reader:
“Hello Richard.
I just wanted to comment on your Fed conspiracy theory. I have been a member of the Chicago mercantile exchange for 20 years, and have traded in the S&P 500 pit for all of these years. Back in October of 1987 during the crash a mysterious event happened. The market was in a free-fall you could not find a bid in the pit. Suddenly the bell rang without warning, and they closed the market early. They closed the N.Y stock exchange and all other stock market futures and derivatives. All except a thinly traded future of the Dow 30 at the cboe called the maxi. After all the markets closed the maxi took off like a missile. A lot of us were short the market, and were helplessly unable to cover our shorts. When the maxi had rallied about 7% the markets were allowed to open again.
I know the fed manipulates the market. I’m not paranoid, I lived through it. What better way to stop a crash than to close all markets except a thinly traded one, and begin buying everything you can? Since then we in the S&P 500 pit have witnessed Merrill and Goldman come to the rescue time and time again. You might be kidding, but you don’t know how right you are.
Always a fan
JHH”
This has nothing to do with “concentration camps” and Feds supposedly stealing safety deposit box contents. The fact that O.J. probably did it, doesn’t mean that Pia Zadora is the anti-Christ.
Comparing apples and oranges isn’t a valid form of logic, though I grant you Pia Zadora seems as a choice as any.
That should read “seems as good a choice as any.”
Oh my god! We’re about to be swamped with immigrants? I’m got to pack my Boogie Board, my Pet Rock, my Jordache jeans, toss them in the back of my Pinto, and escape to the remote oasis of Palmdale!
…
Why have homebuilders stayed up? Because they are “cheap” on analysts earnings estimates…. around 5-8 times earnings. But those earnings are wrong in my view.
Why? Margins are way too high. In 2001, net margins were in the 5-7% range. Most analysts have 2006-7 margins in the 9-12% range. This in spite of the fact that their land costs are higher, material costs are higher, labor costs higher. But house prices are higher too! Yes, for the moment. But with increasing inventory backlogs, pressure on their cash flow and increased competition from “floppers,” they will start cutting prices aggressively in order to move product. Given their cash flow situations and gearing, they have to. Witness the 10-25% “discounts” in new homes in such areas as Sacramento by Centex and in Northern Virginia by Brookfield Homes. Cut net margins in half, back to 2001 levels, and these stocks aren’t nearly as cheap as they appear. If things get worse, and both the speculators and HB’s begin to suffer increasing cash flow problems, all I can say is, “look out below!”
Don’t forget those big inventories of land on their balance sheets, which went up with bubble inflation and which will drop with the pop. The PPT will not ultimately be able to bail these builders’ stock price out of the trash bin, because the value of the underlying will not support anything near recent valuations, even after the 50% off sale on Toll Bros stock currently underway!
In general …. I am sorry that my entry caused this thread to get so much of mark. I try to not to be a conspiratist.
I do see however some developments and events that I can not place, and I do wonder what they mean and to which future they point.
I think most will agree that the economic world is at a point that an economic meltdown cannot be excluded. Huge debts that are impossible to be paid, even larger highly leveraged derivative markets and a distinct possibility that even larger banks may go down. And as extra ingredients we see political world tensions all around and rising tension about (oil)resources.
A lot of the world economy depends on the willingness of the US consumer to keep spending, so China can keep producing and prevent social unrest in their country.
However if the housing bubble stops, the US ATM refi-machine stops, everything reverses…..less US demand, fewer dollars to China, less treasury support from China to the US, long term interest rates up in the US, Chinese unemployment up, etc.
It is probably no coincidendence that Foreign Central Banks bought 211 billion dollar worth of mortgage backed debt paper since 2004. Without that the mortgage industry in the US would have crumbled already.
We will see when and how the game ends…… and how everybody is positioning theirselves for the endgame.
Regarding possibility fot confiscation this is NOT an urban legend
see e.g. http://www.gata.org/TreasuryClaimsPower.html
‘U.S. Government claims the authority in declared emergencies to seize or freeze just about everything else that might be considered a financial instrument.
The Treasury Department’s assertions came in a letter dated August 12 and written by Sean M. Thornton, chief counsel for the department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, who replied to questions GATA posed to the department in January. It took GATA six months and a little prodding to get answers from the Treasury, but the Treasury’s reply, when it came, was remarkably comprehensive and candid.’
for more background, see e.g.
http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=2248 or
http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=1242
dutchie,
Don’t be sorry. You brought up good points. My mother grew up in Austria during WWII. Most of her friends grew up in Germany, Poland, Russia, etc. during the same time. When I ask them how things got the way they did (and how the Nazis got such power), they say everybody was convinced the govt was on their side…to help out the little guy. Including confiscating guns “for their safety.” Then, the armies marched in.
People believed what they were told, and didn’t ask questions. Government should be by the people, for the people. Citizens should always be aware of what the government is doing and be sure to ask questions about the govt’s activities. The “Patriot Act” is disquieting to a lot of people, and for good reason. Lots of things going on right now, and your input is much appreciated.
No, the urgan legend is the version quoted above, and here, complete with the alleged testimony of bank employees told to keep it all a secret:
The geek, political crackpots, and others who sit around concocting conspiracy stories and launching them on the Internet are no different from those who launch viruses. Doubtless, they think it funny and clever, and hope to do as much damage as possible. What makes it so much worse is that there are millions of people on the Web willing to believe ANYTHING about those with whom they disagree, and more than willing to damage them further by spreading these stories to others. People who love being victims are never so happy as when discovering supposed persecutors, and religious fanatics are never so happy as when discovering Satan alive and well in the apartment upstairs.
The X-Files was fiction, as was the sci-fi series V, but the two have been treated as fact by David Icke and many of his ilk. A few years ago an American was murdered by followers of Icke based on his insane rants. Even in the twenty-first century, people in Mexico and other Third World countries are being executed as witches and sorcerers, sometimes by local priests, based on the testimony of fools.
Conspiracy theorists have an answer for everything, so that it is not possible to argue with them. It is possible to check their sources, however, provided they name them, and these usually prove to be the poorly researched writings of racists, bigots, and political extremists.
During hurricane Katrina, a huge barge left in a canal in New Orleans, hit the wall and knocked it down. Area residents on the tops of their homes and alerted by the sound of the crash, turned to see what had caused it, and saw the barge sticking through the wall. However, conspiracy theorists immediately contrived a story about the Government bombing the canal in order to drown black residents of New Orleans. They described the “banging” sound reported by those in the area, but omitted any mention of the barge. They embellished the story with a report of a navy SEAL or other underwater expert going down and discovering a crater that only explosives could have made. This fiction was immediately taken up by Louis Farrakhan, who is still running around the country scaring people with it and, of course, raising money. It is reported as fact on conspiracy Web sites, and bloggers spend all their time fuming at the evil Government. They manage, somehow, to also link all of this to the Illuminati, Jews, Masons, Catholics, Skull & Crossbones, Gardnerian witchcraft, the Bushes, the Kerry’s, Al Gore, Dick Chaney, Queen Elizabeth, the CIA, Roswell, Martians, Venusians, NASA, and the entire military complex.
It is quite one thing to say the Government is corrupt and manipulated by special interest groups, and that it, in turn, manipulates the Stock Market. Of course it does. It manipulates everything to do with money. However, it is something entirely different to say the Government is out to round us up into concentration camps, take our possessions, negate the Constitution, and to feed us to aliens in North New Mexico in a secret underground facility.
What is shocking is that the instant the idea was posted on this site that the Government was pulling an Adolph Hitler, some readers accepted the premise without question, and started enlarging upon it. These people are malicious and paranoid, and oblivious to the potential effects of such wild-eyed claims and irresponsible speculations. Perhaps they need to be on the receiving end of libel and slander to appreciate what it really is all about.
Hey Anton, I’m sorry to have upset your rosy world view by suggesting that the gov’t engages in less than acceptable practices to meet their objectives and does so by conspiring with NGO’s to accomplish these.
I’m not sure why you feel qualified to express, without reservation, that all of these claims are baseless.
This blog is about real estate and I certainly don’t feel that we need to take up this space by devolving into arguments about conspiracies. I will say that I know there are conspiracys in the market place. President Reagan signed a presidential order allowing for the exhange stabilization fund to operate off budget and intervene in the marketplace to accomplish the stated objective of that order. That is public knowledge so I’m not going to spend the time to dig out that PO and post a link to it here.
The gold market is (illegally) manipulated to cap prices so that the central banks can have something to point to that shows low inflation while they are printing money like mad (M3, sorry- disappearing this month, I’m sure you accept the stated reason for this metric to go away. I think it is a conspiracy (woo ooh, scary) between our gov’t and the FED to hide the printing press) http://news.goldseek.com/GATA/1141920816.php
This link will bring you to the latest revelation from the BIS that admits to this practice. It is a good read for those folks unaware of this situation.
So, there are two examples that show conspiracy theorys are not all that wacky and the market place is not all that “free”. I do realize that there are many people either delusional or making up theories for fun and games. However, I try to keep an open mind when I hear these theories float around nowadays. Why? Because what I realize that what is portrayed in the MSM does not conform to what I see and experience in my life and I seek alternative explanations when those offered don’t seem to fit.
I don’t believe in Alien beings. That doesn’t mean they don’t exist, just that I’ve not seen the proof that would convince me otherwise. I don’t go around telling folks that they don’t exist because I don’t KNOW. Just like you don’t KNOW whether some of the conspiracies that you list above do not exist. It doesn’t fit your world view and since you have seen no compelling evidence, it can’t exist.
No one could possibly KNOW everything about the topics you seem to be able to debunk with your opinions. I’m certainly not encouraged that anything else you have to say would be balanced and informed. We will just have to agree to disagree about the existence of conspiracies. Must be nice to live in a world so black and white though, I’m envious.
I’m surmising that Antoine is a political altar worshipper who refuses to acknowledge grim truths about his dearly beloved.
Perhaps you might consider stepping away from the altar.
I will, if you’ll move your head out of the way.
You’re correct. The altar is crowded with like minded loons. It just happens that 50% of us refuse to worship there.
Okay guys. Enough. I was simply reponding to a ridiculous allegation that our government was going to put us into concentration camps, and a related posting concerning a myth being spread about safety deposit boxes. I did not say there are no conspiracies. I said, conspiracy buffs are too willing believe in them and to spread rumors, regardless of the harm they may be doing.
I don’t deny the existence of outer space aliens; I deny that a master lizard race controls our government, and that George Bush and Dick Chaney are pedophiles who worship Satan and practice child sacrifice. These claims are being made today on thousands of Web sites, and millions of people, evidently, believe them. David Icke draws HUGE crowds to his marathon lectures, and gushing praise from the mainstream Press in many countries, including England. He is also a fanatic anti-Semite, and very pro-Muslim. If you don’t believe me, see for yourself:
http://davidicke.com/
And here’s a guy who rails against everything, AND says that Jews run the world on behalf of Satan.
http://savethemales.ca/
And the weird thing is, he’s Jewish. But, he sure loves Jesus.
I am no fan of our current administration, but George Bush is no Caesar. He’s barely able to articulate a single sentence without messing it up. So, is he an evil genius bent on world domination, or just a dufus pretending to know what he’s doing? I’m inclined to believe the second, but then I’m biased, because I don’t much like Texas.
The story about the safety deposit boxes was MADE UP. Period. Sure the Government has a history of confiscating stuff, but why rail against imaginary future abuses based on past ones instead of what’s going on here and now?
“No one could possibly KNOW everything about the topics you seem to be able to debunk with your opinions. I’m certainly not encouraged that anything else you have to say would be balanced and informed. We will just have to agree to disagree about the existence of conspiracies. Must be nice to live in a world so black and white though, I’m envious.”
I debunked what, one letter saying the government was arranging to take our safety deposit boxes? And claims the entire world is a Satanist conspiracy? You grossly misrepresent my postings. There may be all kinds of conspiracies afoot, but the crap posted by losers on the Internet is not logical, credible, or backed up with a single shred of serious evidence. If you want to read a whole bunch of absurd allegations and some very intelligent responses, try this:
http://www.masonicinfo.com/sitemap.htm
I’m not going to say more about this, because it’s pointless. You can believe whatever you want, but if post your opinions don’t get mad if readers react unfavorably to some of them. The bloggers who interjected political fear mongering on this site are the ones who threw it off track for their own personal interests. So why aren’t you blasting them? Ooops! I forgot. You ARE them.
It seems you’re the only one getting mad.
The original post subject matter concerned a no-bid contract awarded to KBR, a subsidiary of Haliburton, to build an unspecified number of detention facilities for the stated purpose of an “immigration emergency”. The location of these centers were not revealed in the articles that I have read, leaving the reader to draw his own conclusions about where these might be built.The writers (myself being one of those) were publically connecting the dots between a recently signed Presidential emergency order (which I have read but did not save and can not find to link for us, on jim sinclairs web site a few months ago) which gives the president broad (unconstitutional) powers in the event of a declared national emergency.
Now, given the fact that I don’t know where these facilities are being built (if you know then by all means do tell) and the fact that this administration (as well as all previous ones) has been absolutely MIA on the immigration issue. It seemed unlikely that the stated purpose of these detention centers was in fact accurate.
I personally don’t know what the fact of this matter is. I also don’t think that it takes much of an imagination in this day and age of the Patriot Act, unauthorized wire taps, etc., to make the leap to conclude that the stated purpose isn’t the actual purpose. You don’t want to startle the herd you know. This is completely my opinion, lacking any clarifying details, as the immigration yarn doesn’t ring true to me. I’m sorry if this offended you. I suspect that you are going to be greatly offended by actual events over the next several years.