March 6, 2007

“Buyers Feel They Can Wait & Prices Will Be Even Lower”

The St Petersburg Times reports from Florida. “Joe Shultz and Louis Ricci tried to disregard Trump Tower Tampa’s growing distress. They will disregard them no longer. Partners on a $1.48-million condo, Shultz and Ricci have become the first Trump Tower buyers to sue to get their deposit back.”

“The pair allege local developer SimDag LLC breached a sales contract by failing to build their 38th-story luxury condo on time. They also blame Donald Trump, suggesting the New York tycoon misstated his relationship to the project. Trump said at the time he had a ’substantial stake’ in the $300-million tower when, in fact, his exposure is limited to a licensing deal with SimDag.”

“‘No hard feelings, but I just don’t think they’ll have it finished,’ Shultz said Monday. ‘I’m kind of baffled why they haven’t returned the money.’”

“The partners may be the first to sue, but they represent an undercurrent of disgruntled buyers, said Tom Long, the men’s Tampa attorney. ‘I think these suits are going to become more frequent. I think we’re three months away from when developers say, ‘Forget about it,’ Long said. ‘There’s a real risk many people will not get their money back. There’s a real risk you’re going to see a bankruptcy filing.’”

“Long suspects SimDag is out of money and has used up some of the deposits. How else to explain why developers owe more than $3-million to contractors forced to place liens on the property?”

“‘I understand their position. To a certain extent it’s a floodgate: If they give one person money back, it’s the same for everyone else,’ Long said. ‘A lot of people are going to be hurt on this thing.’”

“As the stocks of subprime mortgage lenders melted down Monday on Wall Street, one struggling bank put several hundred of its Tampa employees on ice.”

“Fremont Investment & Loan, the country’s eighth-biggest subprime lender, told most of its Tampa staff to stay home Monday on paid leave. The move followed news that Fremont General Corp., its California-based parent company, had decided to quit lending money to home buyers who have bad credit and to try to sell that business line.”

“Other subprime lenders with significant bay area operations include third-ranked Countrywide Financial Corp., for which Tampa is one of four regional hubs, and New Century. Local economic development officials helped attract thousands of financial-service jobs in recent years while the industry enjoyed a growth spurt.”

“Even its commercial loan business showed some signs of weakness lately. In January, the company filed two foreclosure lawsuits against a St. Petersburg developer it had loaned a total of more than $50-million.”

The Herald Tribune. “So far, bankers have only accepted bids on two of the 32 properties that formerly belonged to real estate developer Michael Tringali and were put up for auction on Feb. 15.”

“Bankers who lent Tringali money to finance his developments could not stomach letting assets go for half their value during the boom. ‘That’s what the property is worth today,’ said Martin Higgenbotham, whose Lakeland-based auction house handled the sale. ‘It’s just less than the sellers want.’”

“‘What has happened is that the market got way overbuilt,’ Higgenbotham said. ‘Just like with oranges, when you grow too many, the price goes down.’”

The News Press. “I had a friend come into my office the morning after I delivered my Market Watch speech and she said she wanted to see for herself the man that had a target on his back. This is the same day that the front page of The News-Press had my picture with the headline ‘Home sellers advised to get real on prices.’”

“I have also received the anonymous calls stating that I (along with the local media) am killing the real estate market.”

“Irrational demand drove up the median price almost 90 percent in about 18 months. Sorry to burst your cream puff, but those inflated prices were being supported by frenzy buying, not fundamental investing. In other words, those values were not real, so as they say, what goes up must come down.”

“You only have to drive two blocks to lose count of the number of ‘For Sale’ signs you saw. Our inventory has increased more than 600 percent since the peak of the market. We are approaching 25,000 resale condos and homes.”

“Unfortunately, too many sellers are acting irrationally because they are either needy or greedy. The needy need a certain price because of what they owe. The greedy want a certain price because of what they feel they are owed.”

“The media can run all the positive articles they want, but that will not change the fact that we have more homes for sale than we could sell in two years, assuming that no new listings were taken.”

The News Journal. “Area housing construction plunged 47 percent last year, dropping off even more toward the close of the year, a research firm reported. Building permits were issued for 5,707 new homes and apartments in Volusia and Flagler counties, down from the 10,858 total issued in 2005, according to Hanley Wood.”

“The slowdown worsened during the October-December period, the firm reported. During that quarter, only 904 permits were issued locally, or 63 percent fewer than the 2,414 issued during the same period of 2005.”

“‘We still have a lot of inventory to clear out,’ said Sue Darden, executive director of the Volusia Home Builders Association. ‘I hear inklings that the market is starting to turn around, but we all know it’s never going back to what we had in 2005. The recovery is going to be slower than what we’re accustomed to.’”

“Mark Vitner, a Wachovia Bank economist, said he expects Florida’s housing construction to continue shrinking throughout 2007. ‘Prices are no longer rising, so buyers don’t feel pressured to make a decision right away,’ Vitner said. ‘They feel they can wait six or nine months, and prices will be the same, or even lower.’”

“Mark Soskin, a University of Central Florida economist who has done consulting work for local builders, said younger builders don’t realize how precarious their industry is right now because they haven’t experienced a full-fledged recession.”

“‘People need to be aware this thing could get a heck of a lot worse,’ Soskin said.”

“Susie Labrie used to see herself as a Realtor moonlighting as a bartender, but lately it is hard to say which job is her ‘real job.’ She finds she is working more and making more as a bartender with the area’s housing market slump.”

“‘The real estate market is so bad right now, you have to have another job,’ said Labrie, an agent in Daytona Beach.”

The Palm Beach Post. “Some folks, but not, we hope, our Dear Readers, blame ‘the media’ for falling home sales and prices.”

“Now, some Realtors are grumbling about prices not falling. Guess who they’re blaming? Here’s what Thomas Lawler, former Fannie Mae economist and current president of Lawler Economic & Housing Consulting, has to say in his private newsletter:”

“‘A growing number of Realtors in Florida are frustrated with the state and national Realtors groups’ efforts to ’spin’ the market as one that is strengthening and where home prices are stabilizing.’”

“‘Many (though probably not yet most) Realtors are frustrated by customers who continue to list their homes at price levels that are ‘unrealistic,’ and as a result, sales volumes, and thus commissions, continue to remain depressed.’”

“‘While Realtors have noted to customers that many home builders in Florida have slashed new-home prices in order to move bloated inventories, many home sellers are still holding off, hoping, along with FAR and NAR, that prices will start moving back up soon.’”




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110 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-03-06 06:24:53

‘When news broke about serious financial problems at Coast Bank of Florida, the city of Bradenton Beach didn’t dawdle. The city yanked $2 million from Coast, concerned that its public funds could be in jeopardy if the bank failed. The deposit run got so bad that Coast took the unusual step of allowing large deposit customers to restructure their accounts and maximize their protection from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’

‘But the rules can be tricky, and even bankers can get it wrong, says FDIC spokesman David Barr. ‘We’ve had bankers who did not fully understand the rules and actually structured accounts that they thought were insured but ended up uninsured,’ he said.’

‘As have officials in Sarasota and Charlotte counties, county government leaders in Manatee now are making dire predictions as they consider what could happen if state legislators overhaul Florida’s tax system.’

‘We’re going to have to come up with a way to eliminate $85 million in programs and projects,’ said County Commission Chairwoman Amy Stein. ‘I don’t think people will be too pleased.’

Comment by the_economist
2007-03-06 07:46:34

‘We’re going to have to come up with a way to eliminate $85 million in programs and projects,’ said County Commission Chairwoman Amy Stein. ‘I don’t think people will be too pleased.’

I will be pleased!

 
Comment by palmetto
2007-03-06 07:50:48

‘We’re going to have to come up with a way to eliminate $85 million in programs and projects,’ said County Commission Chairwoman Amy Stein. ‘I don’t think people will be too pleased.’

Oh, boy, here come the threats from the gov’t offishuls. What’s she gonna do about it? People vote with their feet. LMAO!

 
Comment by Auger-Inn
2007-03-06 09:01:54

These asswipes all have the same MO. They continually build their fiefdom without regard for the taxpayer then the moment they are questioned or their budget threatened, they start in with the threats. Here is an idea. Go back to the 2002 budget, whatever that was and quit whining. If these management folks can’t figure out a workaround with a 10-15% cut in funding then replace them. The friggin gravy train is over and these managers need to get off their ass and do their job. That goes for the rest of the gov’t dolts as well.

Comment by tube_ee
2007-03-06 13:50:41

Of course, it’s all the government’s fault. There’s no criticism of the voters who wanted public services but didn’t want to pay for them. That wouldn’t be fair, right?

–Shannon

 
Comment by Quirk
2007-03-06 22:15:15

They’ll be going back anyway, like it or not. The numbers won’t support anything else.

 
 
 
Comment by SOMD Guy
2007-03-06 06:27:34

A little off subject, but I caught an episode of Flip This House on A&E. They are still showing people can flip houses for huge profits, but you never acutally see them sell the house. Does anyone know of a way to see what happens when the cameras stop rolling?

Comment by flatffplan
2007-03-06 06:37:14

house haters” may premier soon
if Ben can get a deal going on it………
everything is from 04-05 on those shows

 
Comment by jtcc
2007-03-06 07:14:37

Go down to the courthouse steps most days around 11 am and you can see what happens.

 
Comment by Mark
2007-03-06 08:37:56

And they never deduct the sales commision and carry costs from the “projected profit”

Comment by Charles
2007-03-06 08:44:33

Not deducting the carrying costs is the worst part about it, if they don’t sell the property it costs you money no matter who you are. Bigger companies that can sell in house should be able to get away with minimal sales costs.

I think that “Flip that House” is generally worse than “Flip this House”, until I heard Richard Davis claim he never lost money on a deal; which is just a lie. I’m sure that he is experienced enough to make money on most deals, and make money overall; but no one can make money on every deal when you take into consideration carrying costs, etc.

Comment by UnRealtor
2007-03-06 10:42:07

“Flip This House” with Richard Davis/Trademark Properties is great. They’re certainly pros who do things properly and quickly. And then there’s Ginger.

The new season of that show with the Montelongo (sp) brothers from Texas is awful. These clowns manipulate and short-change their workers, slap things together with spit and glue, and are generally all around scumbags.

The other crew in Atlanta, where the guy rolls around in a 7-series beemer, smokes a cigar, and thinks he’s Cornelius Vanderbilt is a but better TV than the Texas crew, but Richard Davis’ South Carolina crew (and Ginger) make for some great TV.

In one episode Richard’s brother came all the way from Vegas to help out on a project house. He pulls up in is crappy car, and 30 seconds later the giant construction dumpster rolled down the steep driveway and destroyed the car. Now that’s great TV.

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Comment by Catherine
2007-03-06 06:40:28

“‘A growing number of Realtors in Florida are frustrated with the state and national Realtors groups’ efforts to ’spin’ the market as one that is strengthening and where home prices are stabilizing.’”

My, my. I predict big drops in NAR dues from the minions.
Alternate realtor universe coming soon.

Comment by flatffplan
2007-03-06 06:51:55

NAR can get it back w LIErah’s book royalties
stocks 2000
and RE riches in feb 05

Comment by Eastofwest
2007-03-06 07:04:17

v 8.9% Jan. down on contracts signed…Mfg. down also..

 
 
Comment by Cocoa Beach
2007-03-06 07:13:19

NAR actually added an extra $30 to annual dues for 2007, for the $40,000,000 “public awareness” (read: propaganda) campaign to convince the public that it is a good time to buy (or sell) a home. That “or sell” part had to be an afterthought added by committee after the ads were done.

 
 
Comment by Sobay
2007-03-06 06:40:28

“‘No hard feelings, but I just don’t think they’ll have it finished,’ Joe Shultz said Monday. ‘I’m kind of baffled why they haven’t returned the money.’”

Joe, perhaps they have yet to return your money because they don’t have it any more?

Comment by Jannifl
2007-03-06 07:53:08

Or maybe they didn’t understand the word, “nonrefundable”, when they read their contract, if they read it.
“As part of the 20-percent nonrefundable deposit, the men paid SimDag $148,200 in cash and provided a letter of credit for an equal amount.”

Comment by flatffplan
2007-03-06 07:59:56

what’s the point of a deposit if it’s refundable?

Comment by jtcc
2007-03-06 14:11:18

The non refundable part is if they just change their mind. If ScumBag cant build the condo in the proper amount of time the deposit would be refundable.

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Comment by OB_Tom
2007-03-06 10:13:31

How can anyone buy something from a company called “SimDag”?

(Or anything connected with Trump)

 
 
 
Comment by txchick57
2007-03-06 06:45:53

“Unfortunately, too many sellers are acting irrationally because they are either needy or greedy.

Someone, please write a rap or haiku about this. it’s begging for one!

Comment by sohonyc
2007-03-06 06:54:36

Neither is irrational. They’re both perfectly rational. What “need” and “greed” do to pricing however, is make a market terribly inefficient. Which is why this market is going to “gap down” in a hurry at some point as both the tension and distance between market-value and the seller’s perceived-value grows stronger.

Comment by t-bone
2007-03-06 07:19:41

You can see For Sale Signs up and down the street,
And soon this bust will be complete.

Whose house?????
Bank’s house….
Let me hear you say
Whose house?????
Bank’s house….

Apologies to Run DMC

Comment by Chrisusc
2007-03-06 07:43:39

I keep thinking “White Lines” 80’s rap song but with R.E. lyrics.

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Comment by palmetto
2007-03-06 07:56:52

White Lines: DON’T DO IT! Loved that song.

 
Comment by zeropointzero
2007-03-06 10:34:15

good old Grandmaster Flash was prescient about the perils of flippin’ and/or sub-primin’ :

The money gets divided
the women get excited
now I’m broke and it’s no joke
it’s hard as hell to fight it - so don’t try it !!!

 
Comment by Chrisusc
2007-03-06 13:50:34

That’s funny.

 
Comment by phillygal
2007-03-06 15:58:42

good old Grandmaster Flash was prescient about the perils of flippin’ and/or sub-primin’ :

Yes, he knew about the ARM and teaser rate danger -

(Ahhh) Higher, baby
(Ahhh) Get higher, baby!
(Ahhh) Get higher, baby!
And don’t ever come down! (Freebase!)

Rang dang diggedy dang di-dang
Rang dang diggedy dang di-dang
Rang dang diggedy dang di-dang
Diggedy dang di-dang diggedy dang di-dang

(Home equity line) pure as the driven snow
(Connected to my mind) and now I’m havin’ fun, baby!
(re-fi) it’s getting kinda low
(Cause it makes you feel so nice) I need some one-on-one, baby! said alternately by realtor and/or mtg. broker
(Don’t let it blow your mind away) Baby!
(And go into your little hideaway condo ‘cause equity lines blow away)
(Blow! )

My favorite part is when he yells FREEBASE

 
 
 
 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2007-03-06 06:59:22

A seller was needy
B seller was greedy
Realtor was seedy
front lawn is now
just a little weedy

Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2007-03-06 07:03:37

Revised:
Florida ABC’s

A seller was needy
B seller was greedy
C Realtor was seedy
front lawn is now
just a little weedy

 
 
Comment by diemos
2007-03-06 07:00:10

needy or greedy
sellers fury focuses
buyer should beware

 
Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2007-03-06 07:02:54

Turned the needy into the greedy, with mortgages my success came speedy… Cause I’m a hustla… S U B P R I M E hustla’… (To the tune of Ice T’s New Jack Hustler)

Comment by Notorious D.A.P.
2007-03-06 08:20:36

Impressive!!!

 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2007-03-06 07:20:37

Harsh reality
negated my investment.
Now I work two jobs.

Comment by txchick57
2007-03-06 07:22:47

lol! Can’t someone get the word “shizzle” into it somewhere?

 
 
Comment by 85249 is Toast
2007-03-06 08:25:51

Bartender by night.
Real estate agent by day.
Broke 24/7.

 
 
Comment by sohonyc
2007-03-06 06:49:42

“Buyers feel they can wait and prices will be lower”

That’s pretty much the definition of deflation.

…and what happens to an economy whose principal asset goes into deflation?

Comment by sf jack
2007-03-06 12:38:23

As well, definition of… Bubblesitting:

“Buyers feel they can wait and prices will be lower”

 
Comment by Quirk
2007-03-06 22:19:07

Ask your grandparents.

 
 
Comment by gsinbe
2007-03-06 06:49:59

Whew! Thank God! My FL “habit” was making me twitchy. It’s been what, two days since we’ve had bubble news from the Sunshine State. I was beginning to fear that the market had started turning around!

Comment by jstab
2007-03-06 06:57:34

Yeah, I love me some Florida stories. They are always the most desperate and sad. We need a ‘Florida’ tag like Fark’s…

 
Comment by Homoaner
2007-03-06 07:41:54

My sister keeps insisting that the Florida market is fine, jus’ fine - because she’s got two friends living down there telling her that. Now that the state has taken a gamble on property insurance in order to get people’s rates reduced, it’s all blue skies and fair sailing. Heck, one of her friends is selling his place on the canal in order to buy a place right on the Gulf, because his boat is too big to fit under bridges. See? Florida’s doing fine!

Comment by SFC
2007-03-06 08:03:19

If you are not in real estate or trying to sell your house, and didn’t bury yourself in an overpriced house, Florida IS fine. I don’t care what anyone says, it’s still MUCH less expensive to live here than in the Northeast or California. Today is gorgeous in South Florida. I don’t agree with Florida getting into the reinsurance business, though. Also I would like to reiterate what I said a year ago - Miami will turn out to be the big daddy of mortgage fraud in the US.

Comment by barnaby33
2007-03-06 09:06:14

Temecula, Ca is out to an early lead on that one.
Josh

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Comment by sf jack
2007-03-06 12:40:33

Hey wait, I had thought Sacramento was in front just out of the gate…

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by ragerunner
2007-03-06 06:59:35

The News Journal. “Area housing construction plunged 47 percent last year, dropping off even more toward the close of the year, a research firm reported. Building permits were issued for 5,707 new homes and apartments in Volusia and Flagler counties, down from the 10,858 total issued in 2005, according to Hanley Wood.”

I have a question?
I have many friends in the homebuilding market on the Treasure Coast (which is seeing huge drops in construction as well) yet all of them seem to be just working away (which is good for them and their families). If building numbers have dropped some much why has the construction industry not decreased it employment numbers to match?

Comment by waaahoo
2007-03-06 07:06:02

Hey rage, speaking from my experience what happens is all the guys who shoudn’t have been building in the first place disappear. If your friends are good and not overextended themselves they will always have some work.

Comment by WT Economist
2007-03-06 07:08:46

On the other hand, high rises take a long time to build, so there is probably plenty of work on buildings started before the bust. Less work when those buildings are finished.

Typical real estate cycle — supply arrives just as demand evaporates.

 
Comment by ragerunner
2007-03-06 07:12:51

It should be interesting, many of them bought homes that their normal pay (without big bonuses) probably will not cover. On top of that they have 80/20 loans (ARMs and I/O) that I sure will readjust at some point. I hope they make it, I guess time will tell.

Comment by waaahoo
2007-03-06 07:19:49

That’s what I mean by overextended. If they have to service that kind of “peak of the cycle” debt they’re gonna have a tuff time.

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Comment by Bad Andy
2007-03-06 07:07:04

“If building numbers have dropped some much why has the construction industry not decreased it employment numbers to match?”

The illegals are easier to cut since they’re paid under the table anyway. Very soon your friends will not fare so well if they stay in construction if this trend continues. My guess is it will.

Comment by palmetto
2007-03-06 07:55:18

Bad Andy, what’s gonna happen to the laid off illegals and their families? First go the jobs, then the public money gets cut as tax money evaporates and the teat runs dry. It could get REALLY ugly.

Comment by palmetto
2007-03-06 08:21:24

Bad Boyz, Bad Boyz
Where you gonna fly, Where you gonna fly
When the teat runs dry?

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Comment by Bad Andy
2007-03-06 08:21:42

“It could get REALLY ugly.”

You’re absolutely right. The ones who are too proud to work on the farm will go home, others will go work on the farm…still others will find “alternate” ways to make money. God help us.

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Comment by palmetto
2007-03-06 08:28:37

“still others will find “alternate” ways to make money. God help us.”

We’ve already had a taste of that over here. Unemloyed illegal kidnapped a boy by the name of Carlton Moore. Fortunately the kid got away unhurt, but he was snatched right from his school bus stop.

As to working on the farm, there will be fewer of those jobs, since a lot of farmland transferred to developers during the boom. We lost a number of orange groves around here.

 
Comment by Liz & Smudge
2007-03-06 09:04:59

Same thing here on Long Island. A huge percentage of the remaining farmland got sold off to developers in the past few years. What was really sad were the gorgeous horse farms that were sold off. There are alot of horses here because of all the money from Manhattan. They employed alot of illegals as well. GONE to developers now. - i gotta get out of here =-(

 
Comment by palmetto
2007-03-06 09:53:19

I meant to say “Clay Moore”. Sheesh, wasn’t Carlton Moore the Lone Ranger? I think his name was Jack Carlton Moore and he changed it to Clayton Moore.

 
Comment by OTownCajun
2007-03-06 12:10:09

In Daytona Beach, two illegal construction workers were just convicted of 1st degree murder. After being thrown out of a bar, they waited for the bouncer to leave, followed him a few miles in their car, and shot him and the club’s DJ, who was getting a ride home, at a stoplight on U.S. 1. The DJ died.

Full story here:
http://tinyurl.com/2bc5qw

 
Comment by Matt_in_TX
2007-03-06 21:15:16

Clearly, we need public subsidized bilingual marksmanship classes in the border states… so they don’t shoot the wrong targets.

 
Comment by Quirk
2007-03-06 22:22:00

Carlton Moore is the Lone Racist of South Florida.

 
 
Comment by captain jack sparrow
2007-03-06 17:19:46

Hopefully when it gets ugly enough the illegals will go home to Mexico.

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Comment by Mike a.k.a/Sage
2007-03-07 00:35:36

I was in the local Walmart in Fort Myers this weekend, and I noticed something very strange. The locals outnumbered the illegals 20 to 1. It’s usually the other way around. No parking problem either. Where did all the illegals go?

 
 
Comment by ed in texas
2007-03-06 07:18:01

They’re working.
Are they getting paid on schedule?

 
Comment by palmetto
2007-03-06 07:36:03

“I have many friends in the homebuilding market on the Treasure Coast (which is seeing huge drops in construction as well) yet all of them seem to be just working away”

Isn’t Treasure Coast where they are having problems with construction defects? If so, your friends will have work aplenty for years to come in remediation construction.

 
 
Comment by tom stone
2007-03-06 07:06:30

Donald Trump disengenous?,who’d a thunk it.

Comment by Neil
2007-03-06 07:43:24

Donald Trump disengenous?,who’d a thunk it.
That that poor beaver stapled to his head. ;)

Got popcorn?
Neil

 
 
Comment by Ft Lauderdale
2007-03-06 07:12:51

Drove through Sarasota/Ft Meyers over the weekend, grabbed the Sunday paper for fun, the entire real estate section almost read like this blog, mortgage fraud, falling prices, and soaring inventory.

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-03-06 07:19:10

“…grabbed the Sunday paper for fun…”

I’m sure it reads like the Palm Beach Post. It’s kind of fun to see the same homes week after week with falling prices. I’ve been keeping my eyes on one that started as a great deal on a 4/2.5/2 for $349,900. Now it’s “priced to sell” at $249,900. That’s $100K over a 4 month period.

Comment by Quirk
2007-03-06 22:24:16

The Palm Beach Post is starting to read like “True Crime” these days.

 
 
 
Comment by ed in texas
2007-03-06 07:14:50

Maybe it’s just me, but if I’d got a business proposal featuring Trump’s name, I would have assumed it was a scam.
When you go to the table and don’t know who the pigeon is, you’re the pigeon.

Comment by Jannifl
2007-03-06 08:03:08

To steal a quote from Cote: (paraphrased)
“Why would anyone take investment advice from an entertainer?”

 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2007-03-06 09:20:17

“When you go to the table and don’t know who the pigeon is, you’re the pigeon.”

Love that, good stuff!

 
Comment by robin
2007-03-06 20:53:39

Got free tickets to Trump’s upcoming LA Seminar. Didn’t ask, came via direct mail. Ads in LA Times offering discount from $149 to only $49. Radio ads say pay $49 and bring a friend for free. I hate losing friends.

Friends don’t let friends do Trump!

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2007-03-06 07:26:17

UH OH…….

Lets throw a pity party for those Mobile home people who thought they won the lottery…..and thinking they were going to get $1 million for the mobile home and land.

I guess they bickered too long, and i guess the developers will find a nice way to back out of the deal…

==========================================
By Stephen Gandel, Fortune
February 2 2007: 9:10 AM EST

(Fortune Magazine) — There are a lot of homeowners in Florida who are looking to sell and can’t get their asking price. The real estate boom they counted on to make them rich has passed them by. This story is not about them.

For the past few weeks, the 411 people who live at Briny Breezes, a 43-acre trailer park on the Atlantic about 60 miles north of Miami, have been facing the exact opposite situation.

In December a developer offered them much more than any of them paid - and much more than any of them ever expected to get - for their homes. On Jan. 10, a majority of residents voted to accept. Few of them, though, seem very happy about it.

The developer, Ocean Land Investments (OLI), bid $510 million. That means the owners of Briny Breezes’s 488 mobile homes (many of which could have been bought for less than $100,000 a few years ago) are now millionaires on paper.

OLI hopes to turn the community into a condo and hotel development. “It’s a really unique piece of land,” says Logan Pierson, head of acquisitions for OLI.

The deal doesn’t close for two years, and OLI still has to gain various government approvals. That gives some slight hope to residents who voted no
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/02/05/8399151/index.htm

Comment by txchick57
2007-03-06 07:35:26

Precisely why I opined at the time that were I a Briny Breeze, I’d have offered a 25% discount to option mine out.

Comment by palmetto
2007-03-06 07:41:04

And a lot of the “cash flow” guys would have jumped at that.

Comment by txchick57
2007-03-06 08:02:28

I know. 25% discount offered would have started a bidding war, I think.

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Comment by palmetto
2007-03-06 08:09:16

Lol, Orlando is cash flow central, home to the American Cash Flow Institute. Those guys need rabies shots.

 
Comment by palmetto
2007-03-06 08:23:47

They would’ve been all over you like a cheap suit in the rain.

 
 
 
Comment by zeropointzero
2007-03-06 10:42:04

I wonder if there was at least one or two sharp folks out of that group who did that — surely there was one or two people who said “there’s no way this is ever going to go all the way through” at this that price.

It’ll be fun to watch what happens in a year or two when the next offer is 40% of the old one.

Comment by jtcc
2007-03-06 14:20:23

surely there was one or two people who said “there’s no way this is ever going to go all the way through” at this that price.

LMAO
Its people living in a trailer park and some didint want to do it.

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Comment by SFC
2007-03-06 07:54:51

The only way this developer could buy this land for $510 million and make a profit is if condo prices go up another 200% over the next 5 years. There just isn’t enough space to have enough condos. If they “only” cost $1 million each, and $500K of that is profit after construction cost, RE commissions, payoffs to politicians, etc., they’d have to sell over 1,000 condos just to cover the land cost. And that doesn’t ever take into account the carrying cost of that $510 million while the condos are being built. I just don’t think this will ever happen. It’s win-win for the Briny Breezes people though, they’ll still get to live in a very cool place. I’d love to be able to keep my boat there.

Comment by Eastofwest
2007-03-06 08:49:13

SFC, I think the game is like the article on the Trump tower or the Movie making biz…Just get the financing through ,and start the cash flow then they can funnel it away as fast ,and discretely as possible…They can show cost sheets ,and back it up with paperwork etc…The producers take the skim, and if it makes a profit ,more gravy, if not well, that’s the investors’ problem…They already got their cut.

 
 
Comment by the_voz
2007-03-06 08:58:46

the real funny part comes when the Brinny Breezes millionaires get the shaft, and all the ones who new it was “in the bag” file BK, because they overspent the windfall that never showed up.

 
Comment by OB_Tom
2007-03-06 10:23:36

I predicted two months ago on this blog that these guys are going to lose their trailer homes AND the $1M.

 
 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-03-06 07:55:56

so is it STAGflation or deflation ?
the debt pile makes it tricky to call
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070306/economy.html?.v=9

 
Comment by HonestAppraiser
2007-03-06 07:56:19

It’s frigin cold outside here in Mass. I just read from the Boston Globe that are new gov (libreal carpet bagger) is thinking of having people that work for mortgage brokers (former used car salesman) getting licensed like me.. I have been hoping for this for 8 years now maybe it will happen cause the fee would be $250 per x 3,000 people. A nice windfall for Mass.. Of course the Gov says it will help implement a task force to crack down on these types of sub-prime lenders, but I and I think hd74man know whats gonna happen to the $$. Can anyone say general slush fund. Sorry to go off topic

Comment by flatffplan
2007-03-06 08:02:28

how’s MA’s free-ER healthcare working out ?
x MA for me

 
Comment by palmetto
2007-03-06 08:04:20

yeah, well, thanks a pantload, Massachusetts. If you hadn’t voted Romney into office in the first place, we wouldn’t be having to endure his early campaign commercials here in Florida.

 
Comment by diemos
2007-03-06 08:04:37

$250 x 3000 is $750000

Labor costs to adminsiter the program will be many multiples of that. No windfall.

Comment by waaahoo
2007-03-06 09:00:36

Yeah really, that windfall will be spent by lunchtime the day after.

A license won’t stop anything and will further legitimize crooked appraisers.

 
 
 
Comment by ed in texas
2007-03-06 08:09:06

And the piece about the bartender/realtor…
That’s what the world needs, more bartenders that you don’t dare talk to. (howbout bartender/undercover cop ?)

 
Comment by winjr
2007-03-06 08:19:06

“Even its commercial loan business showed some signs of weakness lately. In January, the company filed two foreclosure lawsuits against a St. Petersburg developer it had loaned a total of more than $50-million.”

This is what will sink the stock market in 2007, once and for all … when Wall Street thinks that CRE loans are blowing up.

 
Comment by WestSideGeorge
2007-03-06 08:51:20

Semi-Serious Question:

Can I pay the 10% I owe at closing using my credit cards?

… I being a seller needing to bring cash to the table:) Can’t think of any reason a seller would not be able to do this. I’m assuming (silly assumption given what we are learning about the mortgage industry) that controls have always been in place to prevent buyers from using ccs form down payment.

Comment by Liz & Smudge
2007-03-06 09:09:58

That would be GREAT to use credit cards for down payments, etc. in real estate transactions! Think about the points you would automatically get! It would work fine for me cause i would just cut a check for the amount when the bill came! Hmmm…. maybe i should UP my credit card limit! - liz

Comment by south florida bubble girl
2007-03-06 09:43:34

I have done this buying a car. I put as much as the dealership would let me on my CC and paid cash for the rest. Then, paid the bill when it came and got a free flight on my Southwest card. We have family in several other states it gets expensive to fly four. This helps alleviate some of the costs.

Comment by Liz & Smudge
2007-03-06 12:29:45

bubble girl… i use my points every xmas to buy gift certificates for everyone on my gift list! Its pretty neat! I never carry a balance and xmas is free! - liz

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Comment by Jannifl
2007-03-06 09:06:55

Yes you can.

 
Comment by txchick57
Comment by zeropointzero
2007-03-06 10:44:55

link is gone/flagged now - care to summarize what we missed?

 
 
Comment by climber
2007-03-06 09:15:31

“Buyers Feel They Can Wait & Prices Will Be Even Lower”

If you are living below your means it pays to wait even when prices are rising. In Northern Colorado prices have been rising about 3% per year (since 2001- and falling gently since fall 2006). If I can put money in the bank faster than prices are going up I’m better able to afford a house with every passing year. The same goes for trade up buyers, but they get the added advantage of the principal paydown as well as the growing savings. I just need a couple more years of slow growth or stagnation to be in a really good position to buy, declining prices is just icing on the cake. I have enough equity and savings that price declines are not a threat.

However, I’m convinced that Bernanke and the People’s Congress will find some way to spoil my parade. FDR, his limp noodle congress, an impotent supreme court and the Fed screwed the savers (”hoarders”) in the 1930’s and became a populist hero. What’s in store this time? Argentina may be a possibility, they froze bank accounts amongst other things. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_economic_crisis_(1999-2002)

And for all their “compassion” FDR and his cronies still screwed the working poor too, because their wages deteriorated in value faster than ever with no gold backing for the dollar. A minimum wage is a pathetic farce if money has no solid value.

Comment by Liz & Smudge
2007-03-06 12:33:32

Climber,
I used that same philosophy here on long island. Ive saved about 300k in the past 5 years by working my butt off. Unfortunately, a house that would have cost me about $150k 4-5 years ago is NOW priced at least $450k. Prices have gone up 100k a year for the past few years! I felt like a mouse on a wheel working 2 full time jobs for years, scrimping and saving while prices moved out of reach.

Comment by BitterT0led0
2007-03-07 00:38:30

Your $300K would buy you two great homes for cash in the Midwest, or 3 so-so homes. So, consider your options. That $450K/home is a large multiple (x5+) of the median wage for your area. In the Midwest, you can find areas of x2.5 the median. Use the rest of your money to create an income stream from boring investments like CDs. End product: Own your home, use another one (which you also own) for rental income, sup further from interest income, and … ENJOY LIFE, fer crissakes!

 
 
 
Comment by AndyInJersey
2007-03-06 10:20:38

“Susie Labrie used to see herself as a Realtor moonlighting as a bartender, but lately it is hard to say which job is her ‘real job.’ She finds she is working more and making more as a bartender with the area’s housing market slump.”

THis is ironic. People crying into their beer pouring their hearts out the very person who made their life a living hell.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2007-03-06 11:14:23

““‘A growing number of Realtors in Florida are frustrated with the state and national Realtors groups’ efforts to ’spin’ the market as one that is strengthening and where home prices are stabilizing.’”

How ironic that the spinsters’ refusal to tell the truth is what is now costing them business and, perhaps, their livelihoods. Not to the rest of us, of course.

 
Comment by Mike M
2007-03-06 11:19:22

As a Broker in the Florida Market, I can only say:

LOWER YOUR PRICE!!!!!!!!!!

Realtors did not create the bubble. Morons expexting too much ROI did. Realtors added to the problem but when you get down to brass tacks, the Buyer’s expected to cash out big time.

“Face it flounder, you screwed up!” You trusted us!”

Comment by mrktMaven FL
2007-03-06 13:10:15

but but…I’m an underwater serf; so, I can’t lower the price.

 
 
Comment by not a gator
2007-03-06 14:42:10

The motherlode!

FSBO in Gainesville–New listings

25 new listings in No. Cen. Fl. This is a special FSBO site. Ha!

If anything good comes out of this downturn, it will be the end of the era of the real estate agent. Sure, they’ll still be around, just like we have used car salesmen and apt brokers, but their monopoly will be done for.

 
Comment by bradthemod
2007-03-06 19:53:28

A somewhat educating piece by the Rich Dad author:

http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/richricher/25748

Better advice than DL has given.

 
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