March 6, 2007

With “Newfound Power, Buyers Are Willing To Walk Away”

Chicago Business reports from Illinois. “A buyer working with Craig Hogan parlayed an ad that said ‘willing to entertain all offers’ into a 13% price reduction on a one-bedroom condo downtown. The buyer offered $205,000 for the condo, which was listed at $249,900, says Mr. Hogan, a broker in Lincoln Park. But the lowball play worked. The final sale price: $217,000.”

“‘It’s like having blood in the water; sharks get wind of it real quick,’ Mr. Hogan says of such ads.”

“Many sellers last year felt the sting of having a house stalled on the market. Homes didn’t sell nearly as briskly in 2006 as they had a year earlier, with total statewide sales for the year down 8.9% from 2005, according to the Illinois Assn. of Realtors.”

“Sales slowed even more in the Chicago area: The association reported 116,463 total home sales in the city and suburbs in 2006, down 12.5% from 2005.”

“Though agents say the market has picked up a bit in the first quarter, it’s still slower than a year ago. ‘In all honesty, I have 27 listings on the market, from $110,000 to the $2-million range, and I’m having problems with all of them,’ says Rita Neri, an agent in Addison.”

“The Chicago housing market hit the brakes hard in the second half of 2006, after years of acceleration. Homeowners looking to sell got caught in the middle, says broker Karey Walker. ‘(They) still want the price that maybe they could have gotten last year,’ she says.”

“And buyers, sensing their newfound power, ‘are a lot less emotional. They’re willing to walk away.’”

The Toledo Blade from Ohio. “Lucas County records show buyers are landing deals. A newer McMansion, four bedrooms, five baths, nearly 5,000 square feet, in the upscale Country Walk development in Sylvania Township was appraised at $575,000 for a sheriff’s sale a year ago.”

“It was acquired by the lender and was resold seven months later for $315,000, or $260,000 below the appraisal, according to the Lucas County auditor’s office.”

The Detroit Free Press from Michigan. “Homeowners across metro Detroit have found themselves confused and angry as they try to reconcile rising property tax assessments in the softest real estate market in years.”

“Southfield resident Paul George. He has tried, and struck out, three times to challenge his property tax assessment. The 65-year-old argued last year that the value of his 1,800-square-foot home should be lower because it’s next to an abandoned house and near a noisy roofing company. He said homes in the neighborhood hadn’t been selling.”

“‘It seems counterintuitive for most people’ that their taxes would go up as their property values decline or remain stagnant, St. Clair Shores City Assessor Scott Vandemergel said. ‘It’s almost as though it’s insulting to them,’ he said.”

The Skyway News from Minnesota. “Some of the inexperienced condo speculators in the Downtown market have forfeited their earnest deposits and scattered, real estate experts say.” “Tom Melchior, manager of marketing research at Larson, Allen, Welshair & Co., said his firm estimates that some developments saw 15 - 20 percent of their units sold to investors.”

“‘Now the condo market is getting hit with a double whammy,’ Melchior said. ‘A lot of unsold units purchased were by investors who decided to walk away.’”

“‘There are a lot of people like myself, investor real estate agents, that are trying to beat up a little bit on the builders to get the best deal because there is a lot of inventory down there,’ Lindsay Gerrard said. ‘The condo market itself is very flat, so what you’re seeing now is more behind-the-scenes where builders and developers and investors are trying to haggle out what type of incentives they would give away to move these products.’”

“Jim Stanton, developer of projects such as the Riverwalk, Bridgewater and Lindsay Lofts, said his projects require a statement that the buyer is an owner-occupant.”

“‘A true investor I would probably accommodate, but there aren’t many of them,’ Stanton said. ‘We’ve had them come in and say we’ll buy 20 units and they want a discount, but we don’t discount. … People are in desperation mode, and some of them do that. Our sales are good without it.’”

“‘Three - four years ago, 15 - 20 percent of buildings went to investors in general,’ said David Abele, a condo investor and real estate agent who is selling the Nicollet. ‘That has dropped to about five percent.’”

“Scott Parkin, marketing director of S.R. Hoffman & Associates, said the investor purchases that helped fuel most condo projects have now disappeared. He said it is difficult to ‘cash flow’ a unit by renting it out, because of the high price per square foot in Downtown condos.”

“‘People are getting better deals right now; developers are making concessions that are making it easier,’ said Matt Havel, a mortgage consultant. ‘A lot of developers have a lot of inventory.’”

“Havel said he started working with investor groups interested in bulk sales in the past 10 - 11 months. ‘It’s tailed off a bit since mid-2006,’ he said. He declined to go into specifics about the speculators, but said many were from California.”




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72 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-03-06 11:10:28

From the ‘Why they won’t budge’ piece from Chicago:

‘Who: Jill Niewoehner, husband, Daniel. Quest: Sell North Center two-bedroom condo, purchased new in 2002. Asking $369,000.’

‘To be honest, I don’t even care that much about making money. I just want to pay up what I owe and get out.’ The Niewoehners got stuck when the market changed. ‘We had to take out a home-equity line to get the down payment on the house, so we’re tied to a number because we owe more than we paid for it. Which was probably not bright on our part, but everybody in the building was 30 days, 60 days (on the market before selling), and now it’s ‘Ouch.’

‘I’m not going to sell it for peanuts just because the market (stinks). I don’t know what our Plan B is.’

And the other guy, I think is a potential buyer:

‘Barry Cutiah, retired. ‘I thought, gee, wouldn’t it be nice to actually live in a home for the first time in my life? And I think this is the best time in recent history to buy a house, since you can’t go backwards.’

‘Next steps: See what the spring market holds. ‘My goal is to buy at the exact bottom of the market. With the three-flat, I bought at the exact top of the market, and I was a celebrity on the block, because I had paid more than anybody. I don’t want to do that again.’

Comment by flatffplan
2007-03-06 11:57:37

are they back to 2002 pricing ? purchased new in 2002. Asking $369,000.’
it’s still 05 in my hood 22151

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2007-03-06 12:55:02

North Center saw a lot of condo construction recently as yuppies moved northwest along Lincoln Avenue towards Lincoln Square from Lincoln Park. (remember it ain’t called the “Land of Lincoln” for nothing.)

North Center used to be good working class folk but the yups and their pets stoked values and mid-rises sprung up everywhere. $369k - nah, no thanks - nothing without soil is worth over $200k. Besides, the Brown & Red lines are under construction so mobility is limited. Of course most of these types prefer their “green” mini-SUVs. One can see plenty evidence of this at the Trader Joe’s on Lincoln north of Addison. “Rib Fest” is at Irving and Lincoln was still good this year - the yups mostly stayed away.

Comment by passthebubbly
2007-03-06 16:30:46

I like North Center. Some of the best housing stock in Chicago is there. Nothing ostentatious, just modest, handsome, well-built tract housing most people would be happy to raise a family of four in. With none of the ugly, featureless boxes thrown up in the last decade that pass for three-flats all over Lincoln Park and Lake View.

One neat feature about North Center houses: many of the transoms above the front doors have stained-glass house numbers from the original construction 70-80 years ago. You’ll see this uninterrupted for two or three blocks. Each house’s number has a different color scheme but they all have the same hand-drawn “font” tying the entire neighborhood together. It’s a little thing, but you really notice it, and nobody would ever do think of it nowadays.

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Comment by glorgau
2007-03-07 03:42:28

Yep, as a side note, NorthCenter bowl - the pool hall was featured in a scene in the Paul Newman movie “The Color of Money” - was torn down and replaced with condos.

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Comment by Chicago Guy
2007-03-06 13:27:15

The Niewoehner’s own unit #306. Their neighbor, unit #304, is also for sale and the asking price is $384,000. Here’s a link from a local re shill site: http://yochicago.com/today/resales/we-like-to-watch-inside-north-center-condo_4221/

I’m glad to see everyone is chasing the market down! I have always liked this building and I would love to live there! I hope prices drop even more because maybe then I could afford to live there!

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2007-03-06 13:48:29

What would be your “wish” price for such a unit?

4020 N. Damen - that’s a pretty decent location. Off Irving, Brown Line nearby, X80 bus gets you to the Blue Line and the airport fairly well.

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Comment by Chicago Guy
2007-03-06 14:17:53

I would buy either unit in a heartbeat if I could get my hands on it for $200,000 because like you said, nothing in the neighborhood is worth more than that!

The warranty deed from the buyers show that they bought their unit new for $308,000 in 2002. The article above states they’re asking $369,000, and based on that price, a rough estimate of appreciation is about 3% per year. That’s not bubble pricing but $369,000 is still a lot of money. Me thinks the developer made a sweet sweet profit in ‘02. It appears the buyers paid a price that included a couple of years of future appreciation factored in i.e. they paid waaaaaaay too much in ‘02.

Ben, what the Trib article doesn’t mention is that the Niewoehners purchased another MORE expensive house in August before selling the condo mentioned the article. A SFH nonetheless.

I try, but I can’t feel bad for these people. I rent an apartment 20 blocks directly west of them for probably 1/8 the cost of their two mortgages. I’m not the one who feels compelled to keep up with the Joneses. First the young couple buys a condo and get married….oh how sweet. Brand new construction in a hip part of city. Such hip urban dwellers.

This sweet couple lives there for five years and the hubby gets a promotion, they ‘need more space’, and their friends all have SFH’s so they decide to move. The wifey falls in love with some more expensive home that she ‘must have’ and makes the conscious decision to buy it before selling the condo.

Somehow two mortgages, financial hardship and outright stupidity didn’t fit into her picture perfect dream of a life. Whatever.

 
Comment by chicagogirl
2007-03-06 20:36:37

They made the mistake of buying before selling because in 2005 you could do that. What do they do now though? Rent out the condo? Hope and pray it sells in the next few months? The carrying cost has to be killing them.

Since when did North Center become the land of $400,000 two bedroom condos? Is there anywhere left in Chicago where a two bedroom doesn’t cost $400,000?

The other article about the slowdown in Chicago sales was quite accurate. It’s been my observation that the $300,000 to $550,000 price range in condos is dead. Single people can’t afford the $300,000. Couples can’t afford the $500,000 (and those that do want houses.)

There is already a huge glut in this price range and we haven’t even hit “peak” listing season yet. Look out below!

 
Comment by Ken
2007-03-07 06:00:26

Listings in the $300,000 - $550,000 make up 37% of all listings in Chcago proper as of today. That is a significant amount.

 
Comment by edgewaterjohn
2007-03-07 07:14:31

Have a look at the pricing on this link. These pics are two weeks old, Edgewater is cheaper - relatively speaking. I can’t wait to see how this condo craze plays out citywide - for many it could end badly.

http://www.jrstransglobal.com/condofeb07.html

 
Comment by Ken
2007-03-07 07:45:29

“Another mid-range offering, this time on the northwest corner of Broadway and Rosemont. Low $200k USD for new construction? Sounds decent, this project bears watching.”

In my experience, starting in the low $200’s means $249,900. They get away with that because it is, in fact, the lower half of the $200 range. That price is probably for a 600-650sqft studio.

 
 
Comment by Dan
2007-03-06 14:38:24

Nice Job……

Having all the background info on a listing intimidates realtors and sellers alike. I do love the look on their face when catching them in a line of BS…suddenly it’s..stutter, choke, change subject quickly….

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Comment by glorgau
2007-03-07 03:47:16

I remember looking at multiple 2 flats (the whole building, not just one unit) just south of St.Bens in the 1997 time frame. They were going for about $225K or so. My siser and I thought that was just too expensive and passed. ;-)

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Comment by 85249 is Toast
2007-03-06 12:27:00

I found this statement by Cutiah interesting. He’s obviously in no hurry…

“There was one house I fell in love with. It had a big kitchen, an updated bath, really nice landscaping.” The price was too high at first, and negotiations fell through; then, months later, the owners offered to sell at his price. But he’d fallen out of love. “By that time, I’d seen a great many other houses, and it seems like when you go back, everything seems smaller.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-03-06 13:05:40

Yeah, maybe but after buying in at the top, I don’t think he has a grasp on the market:

‘I think this is the best time in recent history to buy a house, since you can’t go backwards.’

Comment by passthebubbly
2007-03-06 16:37:40

Chicago is definitely softening in the central areas (downtown/ south loop/ gold coast/ river north). I can easily “afford” a 1br near downtown now, by which I mean the traditional definition in relation to down payment, income etc. But in a couple years I’ll be able to “afford” a 2br for the same price.

$217 for a 1br does in fact sound about around what the market will bear right now.

This evening I walked by a place that just starting construction around Chicago and State… the sign said 1brs starting at $450, 2brs starting at $725. Yeah, good luck with that.

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Comment by chicagogirl
2007-03-06 20:41:04

Crains also recently had an article about the rent to buy ratios in Chicago. From “Gap Between Rent, Home Prices Narrows”:

“Rent now is increasing as a percentage of the after-tax monthly payment for the median home in Chicago, according to a recent report by Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. The ratio, as high as 99.5% in 1993, sank to 58.2% in the second quarter of 2006 but rose to 61.1% at the end of the year, the report says.

The rent/buy ratio is a key metric for some apartment investors, who use it to decide where to buy properties. They will invest in cities where renting is relatively inexpensive and avoid markets that favor owning.

At 61.1%, Chicago sits in the middle of the pack. The national average is 62.6%, according to Deutsche Bank. Buffalo, N.Y., is the most expensive for renters vs. owning, at 119.”

The time to buy in Chicago was clearly 1993 (which sounds about right.) I like how they try to spin the “increase” from 58.2% to 61.1%. It’s still MUCH cheaper to rent, obviously.

 
Comment by Ken
2007-03-07 06:05:59

Chicagogirl,

Your 1993 target buy date is right on. Chicago has been experiencing a “condo boom” for nearly 15 years now. I don’t have #’s in front of me but I’d guesstimate that from ‘93 on we’ve seen 7-10% yearly appreciation in many areas (Lincoln Park, Wicker Park, Bucktown, River North etc..)

Chicago is looooong over due for a correction.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Doghouse Riley
2007-03-06 13:28:10

“Jim Stanton, developer of projects such as the Riverwalk, Bridgewater and Lindsay Lofts, said his projects require a statement that the buyer is an owner-occupant.”

Boy howdy, that’s what I call due diligence. Hey Jimbo, do you look behind their backs to make sure their fingers aren’t crossed while they sign that statement???

 
 
Comment by Sobay
2007-03-06 11:39:56

The Detroit Free Press from Michigan. “Homeowners across metro Detroit have found themselves confused and angry as they try to reconcile rising property tax assessments in the softest real estate market in years.”

The conundrum is that they want lower taxes - but feel that their home is still worth 2005 prices.

Comment by GPBlank
2007-03-06 12:12:34

Increases have been capped since early/mid 1990’s in Michigan so why weren’t they complaining when they were getting assessment increases below what house prices were increasing during the 90’s to 2004. We downsized in 2005 so our assessed value which came in the mail yesterday decreased 10%. However, when we moved we were paying almost the same in property taxes as our old house despite the fact that we bought something less than half the value of what we sold (in same city).

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-03-06 13:07:05

Isn’t it interesting that all the complaining about taxes comes after the peak?

Comment by DeepInTheHeartOf
2007-03-06 13:49:34

Uhmm.. Some of us were complaining about Property Taxes since long before things turned.

But yes, for the MSM, this is a ‘new’ angle in Real Estate reporting — it jsut doesn’t mean it wasn’t there all along.

It was a lot harder to challenge your property taxes when comps were rising faster than capped taxes could grow.

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Comment by Dan
2007-03-06 11:44:31

Something to note:
“In all honesty, I have 27 listings on the market”

Anytime someone uses “In all honesty” or “I’m being completely honest”….or something to the effect, they aren’t. It’s a red flag, regardless of the situation, there’s more that he’s not sharing. “Honestly” speaking is a conscience, or subconscience, method of trying to get someone to believe what they say.

Comment by sf jack
2007-03-06 12:30:11

I found that when negotiating rents with landlords (something quite common in the San Francisco Bay Area 2002-2005), or really just about anything for that matter, they always seemed to use a similar term when trying to outline their demands:

“It’s not about the money…”

After that, everything else I “hear” is like it’s coming from Charlie Brown’s teacher: “blah, blah, blah… blaaah, blaah, blah, blah…”

Because I know the discussion from their end, at that point, is *exactly* about the money - whether said person realizes it consciously, or not.

Comment by gab
2007-03-06 13:19:48

I like this old nugget. “When someone says, ‘it’s not the money, it’s the principal of the thing…. it’s the money’”

 
 
Comment by 2benevolent
2007-03-06 12:38:03

It could also be that they are frequently dishonest, and they are trying to indicate “No, seriously, I’m telling the truth this time”

 
 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-03-06 11:50:20

I Hoganned ” will be like premature ejac
whoops I hoganned

 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-03-06 11:54:19

new tpoic
re - assesments - how hard will it be to get your’s lowered ?
Southfield resident Paul George. He has tried, and struck out, three times to challenge his property tax assessment.

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-03-06 13:09:32

In Texas, it had to be appealed every year as prices came down.

 
Comment by Dan
2007-03-06 14:46:09

If it’s a decent amount there are companies who will represent you throughout the appeal process, from filing to documentation to hearings, etc. Their fee is covered as a portion of the savings. Save a thousand, you pay them a couple hundred. I used them extensively when I was in business and they were extremely professional and effective. It’s not worth their time for a few hundred bucks in assessment, but it doesn’t cost anything for then to do an analysis. In the next few years this might be the new growth industry…..neighborhood gets together and hires them to rep a hundred or so homeowners.

 
Comment by climber
2007-03-06 15:59:09

In MI they capped the assesments at some small % per year, so they are so far behind the market they could continue up for years after the peak. The house resets when sold or remodeled and then will track the market with the same conditions.

These folks obviously don’t understand loop control theory. The feedback mechanism has a long lag - it leads to instability.

 
 
Comment by North GA Dave
2007-03-06 11:57:39

“Jim Stanton, developer of projects such as the Riverwalk, Bridgewater and Lindsay Lofts, ….

“‘..said. ‘We’ve had them come in and say we’ll buy 20 units and they want a discount, but we don’t discount. …

Good luck with all that.

Comment by ockurt
2007-03-06 12:21:54

Yeah I know…ha ha ha…I’m SO sure if some “real” investor came in and said they would buy twenty units for a discount the builder would turn them down…WHATEVER

Like you said…good luck with all that…

 
Comment by John Fleming
2007-03-06 13:36:47

We can add 10 units for free, but no discount on the other 20, because we just don’t discount…

 
Comment by passthebubbly
2007-03-06 16:49:33

“good luck with [all] that”

I just wrote the same thing a few posts above (after you in time). That should be our slogan.

 
 
Comment by ockurt
2007-03-06 12:25:04

Don’t know if this was posted.

Bernanke: Toughen Up on Mortgage Giants AP

http://tinyurl.com/yrscyj

Comment by robin
2007-03-06 18:31:30

What is the difference between Ginnie Mae (GNMA) and Fanny & Freddie?

Comment by AKRon
2007-03-06 19:25:15

I think Ginnie Mae is a program to help low income buyers purchase houses, by guaranteeing repayment. It isn’t a loan purchasing entity.

 
Comment by ockurt
2007-03-06 19:38:06

GNMA is part of the US govt. and has MBS that are backed by the US govt…FNMA is a private corp. with MBS that are not backed by the US govt. (this can be debated)

 
 
 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2007-03-06 12:33:01

““A buyer working with Craig Hogan parlayed an ad that said ‘willing to entertain all offers’ into a 13% price reduction on a one-bedroom condo downtown. The buyer offered $205,000 for the condo, which was listed at $249,900, says Mr. Hogan, a broker in Lincoln Park. But the lowball play worked. The final sale price: $217,000.”

“‘It’s like having blood in the water; sharks get wind of it real quick,’ Mr. Hogan says of such ads.”

Why do people have to be baited to bargain shop?

When making the largest purchase of your life, do you really care about “insulting” someone you’ll most likely never deal with again?

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2007-03-06 13:02:31

Wonder where in downtown and which building? One beds in new construction towers here dance around $500k, $200s for existing sounds about right - of course the HOA can dwarf even a second mortgage payment - $600 or $700 a month isn’t uncommon in downtown Chicago.

Comment by Dan
2007-03-06 14:52:33

You know you’ve offered too much if they are NOT insulted…..

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2007-03-06 15:28:59

I insulted a car salesman recently.

And I got the car at the insulting price.

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Comment by passthebubbly
2007-03-06 16:47:46

On a 1br? Taxes plus assessments should be around $500, maybe $550 if it’s a nice place. Anything more, balk. Nobody wants to like in a 1br forever; $600 for assessments alone is crazy.

 
 
Comment by passthebubbly
2007-03-06 16:44:15

If I were the $205 bidder, I’d re-counter at $203, then at $201, and continue until the seller gets the message.

I’m shooting for fall 2008 to buy a place here (yeah, this timetable is a recent development, for those of you who have seem me post here all this time), and this is precisely my plan. *I* am the buyer. *I* am the one throwing *YOU* the life raft. You will obey *ME*.

I’m patient. Renting is 60-65% the cost of owning here now. Got plenty of money, and plenty of time.

 
 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-03-06 13:00:04

these 2 headlines together
seems wrong
# Wall Street rebounds as financials soarTue 3:41PM ET - Reuters
# Charter Announces Closing of Loan Facilities

Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2007-03-06 13:12:01

I’m always amused at the speculative reasons given for why the stock market has fallen/risen each day. Who decides these things?

 
Comment by Lynn
2007-03-06 13:38:31

Cant find the news on Charter Mortgage. Do you have a link?

 
 
Comment by jag
2007-03-06 13:04:32

13% off? That’s “driving a tough bargain”? In this market?

If you don’t get 30% off peak you’ll be underwater for the next eight years.

 
Comment by Brooklynite
2007-03-06 13:09:21

I’m no trader, but my guess is this rally will not last.

The fundamental news out today was bad: bad for manufacturing, bad for those hoping for rate cuts, etc.

I doubt the rally will last the week, but it may . . . but that doesn’t change the reality that this market has a good ways to fall.

BTW, any NYers should check out Curbed.com from time to time . . . I am usually one of a few lonely voices out there. I rather enjoy the catcalls and insults though.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2007-03-06 13:18:17

I think the markets are all confused right now.

The talk is “everything’s fine” but the underlying reality is anything but. No one knows what to believe.

 
 
Comment by Helicopter Commander Bernanke
2007-03-06 13:10:29

A month or so ago someone posted a financial advice column by some old bat who was griping about lowball sellers and how they were “wasting everyone’s time”. Somehow I doubt there was a peep from her when there were bidding wars and sellers were demanding that buyers feed the squirrels. Hope she’s reading this and gnashing her teeth. Guess what, Granny? The worst thing they can do to a lowballer is say no…and there’s plenty of other sellers out there.

Comment by Helicopter Commander Bernanke
2007-03-06 13:13:15

Make that “lowball offers”. Lowball sellers appear in a later stage of desperation.

 
 
Comment by Curt
2007-03-06 13:25:25

Looks like the “Channeling Stocks” crowd had a field day with NEW today. Almost 59% of the toatal shares (32.7 out of 55.4 million) changed hands today. An increase of over 354%.

(Gained over 50 cents from yesterdays disaster)

Comment by Pete
2007-03-06 18:55:10

It amazes me that some people see NEW as a bargain, at current prices. Oh yes, after the subprime scandal has been building for years, it completely unraveled in just a week’s time!

 
 
Comment by FED Up
2007-03-06 13:38:44

“Priced at $389,000, Mr. Navigato’s home falls just above the teardown range in his market, but doesn’t qualify as a luxury home. Mr. Navigato, 41, now faces the prospect of paying two mortgages until the house sells. “I’m surprised that this house is still on the market,” Mr. Navigato says.”

Here’s the listing:
http://tinyurl.com/3eytqf

Est. Market Value: 275,758 (from Addison township assessor)

 
Comment by Roger H
2007-03-06 13:51:05

“Jim Stanton, developer of projects such as the Riverwalk, Bridgewater and Lindsay Lofts, said his projects require a statement that the buyer is an owner-occupant.”

In Austin, it’s very very very common that an out-of-town buyer will pose as a potential home buyer, buy the property with 3.5% down or in some cases 0% down, meet the neighbors, look happy, and then poof - the property is for rent 3 weeks after closing. I think there are a ton of people pretending to be owner occupants and even taking out standard FHA / conventional loans. It’s happening all over my neighborhood. There is a lot more speculation than can be accounted for in standard “investor” numbers.

 
Comment by DaniW
2007-03-06 13:51:17

http://www.commondreams.org/views07/0306-35.htm

Published on Tuesday, March 6, 2007 by CommonDreams.org
The Housing Bubble Starts to Burst
by Dean Baker

Is there anything as beautiful as the sound of surprised economists in the springtime? I haven’t had this much fun since the NASDAQ started to deflate seven years ago.

Okay, enough of the gloating; while the collapse of the housing bubble was both predictable and inevitable, it is not pretty. Tens of millions of people will be hurt as they see much of the equity in their homes - money that most had counted on to support their retirement - disappear. Millions more will be forced out of their homes as they find that they are unable to meet the payments on adjustable rate mortgages that reset at higher rates. People who had worked hard and saved in order to become homeowners will see their dream disappear.

The timing and process of the unwinding of the bubble cannot be known, but the basic story is clear. Investors are finally realizing that the high-risk mortgages they have been holding are high-risk.

Comment by edgewaterjohn
2007-03-06 13:55:47

“…money that most had counted on to support their retirement…”

That should have never seemed like a good strategy to begin with - it never was mine.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2007-03-06 15:10:16

Yep, just another marketing ploy by the RE industry, who have now set the expectations of millions of people.

 
 
Comment by zee_in_phx
2007-03-06 15:00:16

’support retirement’.. and screw the next generation (with the hefty price tag on the house)… what kinda thinking is that for retirees. I would hope that the goal would be to have a paid off shelter in the golden years, and have savings to take care of the other expenses..

got cash?

 
Comment by Pete
2007-03-06 19:51:52

The commondreamers don’t like wealth, so its only fitting that they would cheer market declines of all kind. Now they just need to blame Bush for all of it and call for some sort of wealth redistribution scheme to help out the FB dreamers.

 
 
Comment by HarryD
2007-03-06 14:02:28

“The final sale price: $217,000.” More proof there are still many dumb buyers out there

However, dumb buyers PLUS sub-prime magic money will be required to keep these prices aloft - and soon only one leg will be left on that wobbly 2 legged stool

 
Comment by Muggy
2007-03-06 14:39:49

Smoke ‘em if you’ve got ‘em!

Florida
http://tinyurl.com/ys38wg

Kentucky
http://tinyurl.com/ypzcn9

Ohio
http://tinyurl.com/25drjm

Comment by WAman
2007-03-06 17:02:36

Well I have heard of fire sales…. But hey we all knew that it was only a matter of time before flippers would start “burning down the house” he he - seems like a line from a song some time ago.

 
 
Comment by math guy
2007-03-06 15:36:29

I was wondering to myself would it be harder for this housing market to sit on a two legged stool or a one legged stool. I started running your stool analogy through my head. Unfortuneately my analogy came out pretty vulgar:
If FB’s, subprime magic money, and overinflated appraisals are the three original legs of the stool, then the seat of the stool are all the sales that the market is sitting on. Then I realized what will happen with a 1 legged stoolof only FB’s. The bubble bloggers will turn the stool over and the market will be very stable, but also F’ed in the A. Everything will rest solidly on the sales(stool seat), which will be under those FB’s (way below wishing price, and at low volume). And it will be that 1 leg of FB’s that the market is sitting on taking it in the A** from. They will be destroying both comps and inventory with foreclosures instead of holding the market up with sales!

Ugly thoughts I know, but thank the lord I won’t be getting F’ed in the A!!!

 
Comment by SKB
2007-03-06 16:51:10

‘We had to take out a home-equity line to get the down payment on the house, so we’re tied to a number because we owe more than we paid for it. Which was probably not bright on our part, but everybody in the building was 30 days, 60 days (on the market before selling), and now it’s ‘Ouch.’

‘I’m not going to sell it for peanuts just because the market (stinks). I don’t know what our Plan B is.’

Hey Jill Niewoehner, no one is going to want to or should have to pay for your mistakes.
Let me tell you what your plan B is, it’s called REO so you will not have to worry about selling it for peanuts, because the bank will do that for you sweetheart.

SKB

Comment by passthebubbly
2007-03-06 17:11:29

Here’s your Plan B, babe: sell it for peanuts because the market (stinks).

 
 
Comment by chicagogirl
2007-03-06 20:46:56

A buyer just made an offer on a condo unit in the loop listed at $270,000. The offer? $240,000. The seller countered it at $268,000 and said the offer was ridiculous.

A sale on an indentical unit only two weeks ago closed for $240,000. It was a foreclosure (originally listed by the bank at $249,000.) It sold in one week.

The sale was brought to the seller’s agent’s attention and his reply? “We don’t consider that a comp. It was a corporate sale.”

Uh-huh.

The buyer withdrew his offer and walked away.

Things are getting interesting in Chicago. I’m seeing a striking uptick in foreclosures on condo units.

Comment by Chicago Guy
2007-03-07 06:11:12

There aren’t enough Big Ten grads in Chicago to buy all of today’s supply. It’s not going to end well.

 
 
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