March 11, 2007

Post Local Housing Market Observations Here!

What do you see in your local housing market this weekend? Disputed statistics? “Home sellers beware. Despite what real estate industry data might suggest, sales prices were down by 10 to 20 percent around the state last year, according to an East Brunswick analyst who keeps day-to-day tabs on New Jersey residential transactions.”

“In Bergen County the median price for a condo fell by 13 percent, according to the Otteau Group’s statistics. Analyst Jeffrey Otteau said that he is not interested in pillorying the National Association of Realtors, but only in pointing out that the trade association’s method of reporting may overstate the strength of the housing market in some locales.”

Lower prices? “January’s Housing Affordability Index released Tuesday by the Maryland Association of Realtors saw an increase of 0.4 percent, indicating housing is becoming more attainable for in-state buyers. The association indicated the cost of a starter house fell about $14,000 during the last six months, down to about $286,000.”

Builder adjustments?”Rebidding with subcontractors can knock 10 to 12 percent off the price of lower-end homes, said Doug Fulton of Fulton Homes. There is no doubt builders are getting tough, said Bill Washburn, VP of operations for SelectBuild in Arizona, a subcontracting company.”

“‘We’ll receive letters or direction that you have to lower your price 10 percent or 15 percent,’ he said.’They are taking a harder line.’”

“‘We’ll never see the heady days like in ‘05, when builders would load up the houses to justify the prices they would charge,’ said Ben Sage of Metrostudy. ‘This is a reasonable response to a slow market that will somewhat reverse itself when the market normalizes.’”

Cheaper materials? “The crisis in the subprime mortgage sector is threatening to exert more pressure on slumping Chicago Mercantile Exchange lumber futures. CME lumber futures on Friday were down nearly 30 percent from a year ago and almost 50 percent since their peak in mid-2004.”

Loan problems? “Fall out in the sub-prime mortgage market is causing turmoil. It’s one reason more than 2,300 listings in the Grand Rapids metropolitan area have foreclosed. The Grand Rapids Legal News publishes between 80-100 foreclosures a week.”

“Janice Barnes refinanced her house with a deal she couldn’t pass up. What she didn’t realize, and claims she wasn’t told, was the rate would change every month. ‘The instructions and paper is double talk,’ she told 24 Hour News 8. ‘They went from $500 to $850 in two years. In two years! When we began with the low payments, it was not covering the interest,’ she said, ’so they were tacking it onto the principal.’”

“More than 54,000 homeowners in the Chicago area were 60 days behind on their mortgage payments and in serious danger of going into default as of Dec. 31, 2006. That’s 14.5 percent of an estimated 374,000 subprime loans in the greater Chicago standard metropolitan area, said Bob Visini, vice president-marketing, for LoanPerformance.”

“‘[The subprime market] is the perfect storm where you have lenders looking for business [converging with] borrowers stretching to afford a home,’ Visini said.”

Burned speculators? “A glut of empty houses is creating financial chaos for the investors, said Indianapolis bankruptcy lawyer Mark Zuckerberg. The investors are saddled with mortgage payments on multiple properties.”

“Zuckerberg said more than 10 clients have filed or will file for bankruptcy because of the LRTB deal. Those clients own more than 30 houses among them. He expects more bankruptcies to be filed by other LRTB investors.”

“‘In the good old days, getting a mortgage was something to be proud of,’ Zuckerberg said. ‘Now you just walk in, and they hardly check any records. The mortgage lender makes a commission when they sell the mortgage. They don’t care who the borrower is because they are going to sell the mortgage to a securitized trust.’”




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110 Comments »

Comment by tl
2007-03-10 08:45:47

“Fed officials heard stories from Denver, Cleveland, Philadelphia and New York, where neighborhoods are deteriorating as borrowers struggle to pay loans or abandon their homes in foreclosure, a process where lenders take possession of property.”

I live in Philly, and I have heard nothing about neighborhoods deteriorating because of foreclosures. Then again, Philly’s two major newspapers are owned by one of the Toll brothers.

Comment by waaahoo
2007-03-10 17:19:30
Comment by oc-ed
2007-03-10 20:25:17

Like the sands through an hourglass, so are the steps outlined on this blog, last year! (at least), coming true.

What’s next? Sub Prime is down for the count, Money is tightening, let’s see, inventory rising, adjustables resetting, foreclosures rising, hmmm, do yah think prices might head south? Oh yeah, developers need to take the lead there once the sales financed by affordable toxic loans dry up. But through it all, citing rising median prices, the REIC call goes out that it’s a normal market and prices are still rising.

Neil, pass the popcorn please.

Comment by Neil
2007-03-11 09:29:46

Yes, we foresaw a long time ago (most here longer than I… but hey, I had a job to do!). ;)

Borrowers struggling to pay? Oh, its just started. That game doesn’t get interesting until August when so many REO’s hit the market that the comps start falling away faster than people can refi. Bwaaa haa haa

I wonder when construction will finally drop below the absorption rate? Eh… academic. There is enough overhang already (and its not like Houston, Huntsville, or a few other places are going to stop).

Oh… my manners. Enjoy some popcorn.

Got popcorn?
Neil

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Comment by BM
2007-03-10 23:31:39

…only for their subprime borrowers.

 
Comment by Bob Carpenter of Rhode Island
2007-03-11 09:11:31

People will have to put down 5% for now on. So they are going to have to come up with 15k down and mortgage costs of 2 or 3k.

This bubble is about to burst, I give it 3 to 6 months to implode.

 
 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2007-03-10 08:47:22

Inventory is rising in my local market!

Story in the LAtimes today about mortgages falling out due to lenders walking away. I assume the March sales numbers will be affected by this in all markets.

Comment by crispy&cole
2007-03-10 08:49:19

Also anything over $750k is dead!

Lots of immigrants still gobbling up the lower end of the local market - they have yet to translate the memo on the bust into - Spanish or Punjabi…

Comment by peter m
2007-03-10 09:49:06

I track recent trends in My little corner of LA County(Long Beach) and it looks like the immigrants(And others) still gobbling up and overpaying for POS homes in LA cesspool hood areas using IMHO the last available toxic subprime loan products available up to end OF February.
A few signs of reduced sold prices in SFH’s in the better areas but majority of prices still idiotic. Did extensive posts on Ben’s Local Market housing Observations March 3rd on what is happening to housing prices in the LONG beach, Lakewood middle class areas, and the definite trend is for negative YOY of 10-15% for 2007, with neg 20% a real possibility.
Already saw a few SFH’s-1300-1700 sq ft, 3/2’s on 5000-7000+lots, pre-and-post WWII built, in decent stable areas of LB/lkwd- going for mid-$400,000’s. Cannot vouch for condition of these properties but judging by the areas(LB zips 90808,90815,90807/lkwd 90712,90713-all stable solid middle class areas), this shows some downward pressure on prices for middle-lower middle class relatively stable older sfh neighborhoods of LA County.

Comment by peter m
2007-03-11 11:33:08

Speaking of exploding inventory in LA I noticed 20 homes for sale in a half-mile square area of Long beach, 90810. Signs just erupted all over my hood. 4 signs along a 1-block stretch. Rediculous prices too! a 2/1 700 sq ft, 2500 lot rowhouse/bungalow along trashed-out 3400 block of adratic ave asking 415k. Next door another cheaply-renovated hovel ‘value priced’ from $426,000 to $451,000.
The sellers/realtors are staging their last-gasp desperate spring rally to get the last fb’ers/uneducated mostly minority immigrant buyers to overpay for their POS overpriced crap in the LA Ghettos, before the LA RE market tanks, which IMHO is underway as we speak.

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Comment by crispy&cole
2007-03-10 09:04:03

Here is a “high end” home with $100,000 knocked off the price after their failed open house last week:

http://bakersfieldbubble.blogspot.com

Comment by Auger-Inn
2007-03-10 09:10:29

Have em knock another 800K off the new asking price, move the house to an area of the country that someone might actually want to live in, then get back to me.

Comment by crispy&cole
2007-03-10 09:23:15

Pre-boom, in 2001, a home like this would sell for $350k or so. A reasonable price for this area.

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Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-03-10 09:13:17

I think the lions on the sidewalk are scaring all of the potential buyers away.

 
Comment by tcm_guy
2007-03-10 09:21:24

This POS aint even worth 1/4 million dollars! Some lender playah is takin’ it in da a$$!

Comment by scdave
2007-03-10 10:32:34

I’ll check the lender and get back to ya….

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Comment by scdave
2007-03-10 10:37:06

Looks like 640K 1st & 80K 2nd….

 
Comment by Bubblebuster
2007-03-11 11:34:32

How do you check this info? I need to get loan info on 625 Buchanan Way, Folsom.

 
 
 
Comment by passthebubbly
2007-03-10 10:06:12

$1 million… Good Luck With That™.

 
Comment by peter m
2007-03-10 11:32:52

“Here is a “high end” home with $100,000 knocked off the price after their failed open house last week:”

I can imagine waves of LA/bay area expatriates will be beating down the doors to obtain a 1-million$ castle in the Bakersfried boonies at a $100,000 discount.

 
 
Comment by arroyogrande
2007-03-10 09:11:28

We’re still seeing “two steps forward, one step back” inventory number increases. Still up only about 8%-10% from January. I’m waiting to see if the tightening lending guidelines “goose” the inventory numbers in the next month or two (deals falling out due to contingencies, low-end FTHB not being able to enter the market, etc.)

 
Comment by hwy50ina49dodge
2007-03-10 09:23:17

They’ll have to start watching the weather reporter really close for the next 2 months…The spring winds will be blowing all that Bakersfield pesticide dust up the noses of everyone showing up at their “Open House” showings. May want to time the open houses on days with calm winds ;-)

Bakersfield,
Oil, carrots and pesticide dust.

 
Comment by Lionel
2007-03-10 14:04:24

Also noticed the LA Times RE section was looking a little fatter today. Lots of listings, prices still stuck.

Comment by cassiopeia
2007-03-10 15:51:44

You said it, Lionel. The section gets fatter, but prices still ridiculous.

Comment by Caramello
2007-03-10 17:05:17

Whaddya gonna do… sell for less than what you paid for? ;)

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Comment by Bubblebuster
2007-03-11 11:36:20

NOT GIVING HOUSE AWAY!

 
 
 
Comment by oc-ed
2007-03-10 20:18:32

Same for OC. I picked up a Daily Pilot RE pub at a restaurant tonight that is three times as thick as the Sunday OC register suppliment. Prices still suck here too.

 
 
Comment by Bob Carpenter of Rhode Island
2007-03-10 15:16:08

Inventory just started rising again in my market. It seemed to take a 4 month sebatical but inventory is again moving up.

 
Comment by Bob Carpenter of Rhode Island
2007-03-11 09:21:32

” I assume the March sales numbers will be affected by this in all markets.”

Nah, the government will figure a way to fluff the numbers and then revise them 6 months later. :)

 
 
Comment by Jen
2007-03-10 08:57:25

http://www.azcentral.com/community/chandler/articles/0310cr-metropolitan0310Z6.html

Article from the Arizona Republic:
$100 mil ‘Metropolitan’ advanced

A $100 million, mixed-use project that includes 342 condominiums plus retail, offices and restaurants is planned next to Chandler Fashion Center.

The project, called The Metropolitan of Chandler, is designed as an urban village to attract people who want to live, work and play in one spot.

The project, with 100,000 square feet of commercial space, is planned on 12 acres wrapping around the Windmill Inn, across from Nordstrom on the west side of the mall.

f approved by the council, the development will include 1,100 underground parking spaces, Lawrence said. Condos would range in size from 800 to 2,500 square feet and in price from $250,000 to $450,000. Most will be studios and one- and two-bedroom units.

Christine Mackay, economic development specialist at the city, said the Metropolitan project would give her a different class of companies to lure to Chandler.

It would be young technology companies with one to five employees who don’t want to commute and who would like to live in the hub of social activity at Loop 101 and Chandler Boulevard.

“They want to be able to work 15, 16 hours a day and bring their dog from their house into the office and walk back for lunch,” Mackay said. “There’s a whole thing called urban design for the creative class for live, work and play.”

More overpriced condos in an area where “urban lifestyle” doesn’t really fit in with the suburban surroundings, built right down the street from a similar stalled development. Will the Chandler mall end up with two ugly skeleton white elephants?

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-03-10 09:05:00

It is hard to believe that Arizonans bought the urban living myth. And they are everywhere; Flagstaff, Sedona, Cottonwood. Way overpriced as well.

Comment by txchick57
2007-03-10 09:15:05

Flagstaff and Sedona = “urban?” To who, the rattlesnakes?

 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-03-10 09:15:58

I read that and I think that all of these towns want to be Manhattan. They don’t realize the difference. Manhattan is a 2-mile wide island. There is a reason everything is so compressed. Arizona is urban sprawl from what I saw last year when I was in Scottsdale. This urban living stuff just doesn’t work there.

Comment by Jen
2007-03-10 16:21:00

I honestly don’t know who would want to live across the street from a busy suburban mall and pay a quarter to a half million dollars to do it. Yuk. I think the sun has baked everyone’s brains.

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Comment by passthebubbly
2007-03-10 10:12:45

Working 80-hour workweeks for the equivalent of $13-15/hr to come home to a $400k shoebox. At least you’re in a big city and don’t need a car and have tons places to go out to… wait, that’s not true. Oh, to be young again.

 
Comment by AKRon
2007-03-10 14:03:44

Don’t laugh. These are the modern day answer to the pueblos :)
And they are already abandoned…

 
 
Comment by KIA
2007-03-10 08:57:41

What is this “neg-am” of which you speak?

Comment by finance_guy
2007-03-10 09:10:29

neg-am means negative amortization. in plain english, this means that the principal amount of the loan is INCREASING over time, not decreasing as one would expect. Here is an example that illustrates neg-am loans: A borrower takes a 30 year 500,000 “option-arm” mortgage with the ability to pay, say only 1% of the interest every month (actual interest rate is 6%). GUESSING here, this means the borrower makes a payment of about 1600 a month when, in reality giving the 6% interest rate, the bank is due about 3000 a month.

what happens to this 1400. (3000-1600)? Neg-am!!! The bank adds this 1400 to the outstanding principal so that after 1 month of payments, the principal of the loan increases to 501,400. After month 2 of minimal payments, the principal goes up to 502,800, etc etc etc.

Soon this madness stops as there is only a certain about (10% of principal?) that can be added to the loan. Once this happy point is reached, neg-am stops + the borrower is asked/forced to repay a now inflated loan amount.

 
Comment by combotechie
2007-03-10 09:12:57

neg-am = negative amoritization, which means instead of paying down the mortgate the amount of the mortgage increases.

Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-03-10 09:17:34

“Neg-am” is a Latin term that translates to, “bend over and think happy thoughts”.

Comment by Waiting in SD
2007-03-10 14:53:16

Thats a great way to sell it :)

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Comment by combotechie
2007-03-10 09:22:01

BTW, to amortize something means “to put it to death”.

If you pay down a loan you are financially killing it.

If you neg-am a loan it will financially be killing you.

Comment by Arwen U.
2007-03-10 10:54:07

“Le Morte d’Borrower”

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Comment by Diplomatbob
2007-03-10 23:47:43

Maybe we’ll get a modern day Arthur to put it all right. “Whoever can withdraw Auger-Inn from this FB will lead us to peace and prosperity.”

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2007-03-10 09:02:29

Local inventories are well over a year of sales, and raw land is almost too high to say.

Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-03-10 09:20:16

According to a friend in Jersey high inventory means more selection. With more selection buyers will want to pay more. Does anybody want to join me for the morning’s first “Jager-bomb”? Just thinking about some of the stupid things I’ve heard in the last few years makes me need a “bomb” real bad.

 
Comment by BanteringBear
2007-03-10 10:46:31

“…and raw land is almost too high to say.”

I just don’t understand the prices being paid for raw land in the face of this meltdown. It defies all logic. I even read somewhere that builders and developers are “loading up” for the next boom. High priced land kills profits. These guys are dimwits.

Comment by ajh
2007-03-11 01:37:51

Ben could be talking about land inventory, not price.

Comment by BanteringBear
2007-03-11 12:40:58

I believe you’re right. Maybe I should pay better attention ;o)

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Comment by centralcoastbear
2007-03-10 09:06:39

Things have been coming down some, but I still am seeing asking prices consistent with bloated 2005 selling prices. A few things are selling, but not too much. Nonetheless, prices aren’t coming down fast enough.

 
Comment by mikey
2007-03-10 09:10:29

And your loan officer is not a financial advisor.

“A lender has their own guidelines but that doesn’t mean it’s realistic for you,” Barnes said, “and how tight do you want to live.”

24 Hour News 8 discovered a loan officer in Kent County who is a felon. He plead guilty to his second offense of fraud and false pretenses, and faces up to 15 years in prison at his sentencing soon

I suspect a LOT more than a few Loan Officers in the RE Ponzi Scheme are Felons or soon to be Felons.

Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-03-10 09:21:48

I would say they are guilty until proven innocent at this point.

 
Comment by oc-ed
2007-03-10 21:51:30

mikey,

Thank you for using “plead” instead of “pleaded”. You are the first person/author/editor I have seen use this word IMO the correct spelling in a long long time. Sorry to go off-topic, but this misuse of the word has bugged me for a while now and I just had to say Thank You.

Comment by ajh
2007-03-11 01:44:49

I try not to react, mainly because I’m often not sure what idioms reflect US usage (I’m Australian) vis-a-vis what’s just straight wrong.

Perhaps the best example I can think of is the phrase ‘could care less’. UK/Oz phraseology is ‘couldn’t care less’, in effect the exact opposite.

Comment by Lionel
2007-03-11 10:46:59

ajh, we use “could not care less” too, it’s just one of those idioms that people get consistently wrong.

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Comment by talon
2007-03-11 10:27:41

Since we’re on the topic of correct usage, I’d be happy if people would learn the difference between loan (noun) and lend (verb). You can’t loan money, you can only lend it. We could then branch out and tackle lie and lay, but those words are so widely and hopelessly misused that I don’t think they’ll ever get straightened out.

Comment by Chrisusc
2007-03-11 11:32:12

And dont forget the ever popular double-negative: irregardless

used by the masses and fraudsters to sound important…

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Comment by holgs
2007-03-12 02:07:15

I wasn’t sure of that because I’ve always used loan as a verb and I was positive that it was correct, so I looked it up. This is the first link that I found - not particularly in-depth research, but it agrees with me nonetheless.

http://www.getitwriteonline.com/archive/031901.htm


3. We went to the bank to ask the manager to loan us $500,000.

If you thought that “loan” was incorrect in sentence 3, you are not alone. However, Merriam-Webster’s Collegiate Dictionary (10th ed.) explains that “loan” is “entirely standard as a verb” and has been for hundreds of years. Webster’s acknowledges, however, that many people insist on using “loan” only as a noun:

On that note, I wish people would figure out the difference between lose and loose, since they have such different pronunciations and I always have to re-read the sentence once I figure out the intended meaning…

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Comment by Chad
2007-03-12 13:09:31

“On that note, I wish people would figure out the difference between lose and loose, since they have such different pronunciations and I always have to re-read the sentence once I figure out the intended meaning”

AMEN.

Here’s one I can’t get a coworker to stop saying:
“Nip it in the butt.” Bud. BUD! Sheesh!

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by txchick57
2007-03-10 09:12:57

That idiot on Prosper is already 100% funded so my question will not hit his listing. However, I did report his listing to Prosper administration with the foreclosure info, which I think will result in his either having to amend the loan listing to disclose it to all lenders or risk having the listing cancelled.

Report Listing

Report Details * = required
Listing: IS THIS A JOKE?

Primary reason for report: * This listing is impersonating your or another member’s listing
This listing is using your or another listing’s picture
This listing is using an offensive picture
This listing uses profanity or harrassing language
Other, please explain below

Additional information: This borrower (a real estate “investor”) has failed to disclose that he has foreclosures on his record. Here is proof.

http://www.co.larimer.co.us/clerk/search/showdetails.aspx?id=830537&rn=10&pi=0&ref=search

This is material information which potential borrowers should have before deciding to fund this loan request.

Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-03-10 09:24:06

TX, you’re just mad because you missed a beautiful opportunity to get a quick 19% return on your investment. Just admit it.

Are you buying any puts on the HBs? It sure looks like the great HB rally of 2006 is at an end.

Comment by txchick57
2007-03-10 09:39:06

Here’s what happens when you’re not smart as a Prosper lender. This loan went belly up w/zero return (bwr went bankrupt) and one guy lost $15K he lent out.

https://www.prosper.com/public/lend/listing.aspx?listingID=8082

Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-03-10 09:41:56

Am I missing something? This makes the concept of subprime look smart. I had never heard of this site before. Too many people chasing big gains. Not realizing that there is such a thing as a risk/reward ratio.

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Comment by Neil
2007-03-10 10:09:53

I’m actually curious about prosper as an investment…

But not in 2007. The sub-prime meltdown needs to shake out first.

The concept has merit. But there are times you just don’t want to be in the loan market unless you know a lot more than I do.

Got popcorn?
Neil

 
 
Comment by Neil
2007-03-10 10:20:20

Txchick57,

You missed the flipping homes group on prosper!
https://www.prosper.com/public/groups/group_home.aspx?group_short_name=FlippingHomes

ROTFL.

While all of the loans are current, I’m going to be following this group closely.

Got popcorn?
Neil

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Comment by Mike
2007-03-10 10:56:16

Tx, how can you tell the loan is in default? I must be missing something.

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Comment by AKRon
2007-03-10 14:11:23

Want to really amuse yourself. This flipper on Prosper has 799% debt to income… Time to loan him some money, eh?

https://www.prosper.com/public/lend/listing.aspx?listingID=107987

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Comment by mikey
2007-03-10 09:24:54

Memo to self:

Never get into horse or house trading with txchick57.. lol

Comment by ajh
2007-03-11 01:48:17

Memo to mikey:

Never get into ANY kind of trading on the other side to txchick57.

 
 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-03-10 09:35:58

22151 N VA steady with some 05 pricing
one needed work at about 60K off and some in a few days…….

 
Comment by clearview
2007-03-10 09:44:20

Report from Santa Barbara, Ca:

South Santa Barbara county detached single family home median price is down 11% from February 2006 to February 2007

February 2006 SFR median $1,160,000
February 2007 SFR median $1,028,000

Using comps, the YOY drop is even higher, taking prices back to 2004 levels:

Typical south Santa Barbara county comp:

Home sale- 3/2 07. 7841 Rio Vista, Goleta. 4/2 detached 1,344 feet. $820,000.

Home sale- 5/7/04. 7805 Wagon Wheel, Goleta (about 450 feet from 7841 Rio Vista). 4/2 detached 1,344 sq feet. $846,000.

The condo market is taking a bigger hit, with median and comp values down 15% + from 2006.

The market in north Santa Barbara county has absolutely crashed. Homes in the nicer area area of Santa Maria, north of Donovan, are now selling for $168/square foot. In 2005 homes were selling for for $300/sq foot in the same area.

In north county, the number of Notice of Defaults in February appears to have exceeded the number of closed escrows.

As usual, our two local papers, the Santa Barbara News-Press and the Santa Maria Times, are saying nothing about the real estate crash. Both these papers, as most papers, are dependent on real estate ad revenue for their incomes and have been told by the NAR, Century 21, Re/Max and others not to say any thing bad about the housing market. Newspapers are paid shills and hacks.

Comment by scdave
2007-03-10 10:42:00

Niceeeeeeee report from SB….

 
Comment by SLO Bear
2007-03-10 12:56:22

Nice to see the Santa Maria info. I have been watching some homes in the Traditions (off Betteravia) and I’m seeing about -20 to 25% haircut, but not a peep from the SM TImes.

I have said before that Santa Maria will be the epicenter of the Central Coast bust.

 
Comment by cassiopeia
2007-03-10 15:57:43

Awesome post, clearview.

 
Comment by Mike G
2007-03-10 21:33:25

Clearview, I live in the SB metro area.
Where are you getting this info?
Not from Wendy’s News-Suppress, I’ll bet.

Comment by clearview
2007-03-11 12:33:50

I have several sources. I don’t want to spook them, so I can perhaps give my sources to Ben Jones and you can obtain them from him. Ben has my e-mail, so if he is agreeable he can e-mail me.

 
 
 
Comment by Bearmaster
2007-03-10 10:31:17

Hi everyone, So Cal housing bears in particular. In case you missed my earlier posting, I was late with February dollar volume charts because I wanted to be sure all the sale data was in. Dollar volume on a raw basis is hitting 5 year lows in many of the zip codes I cover (primarily west of the 110 freeway and south of the 10 freeway, focused on beach cities in LAX area). I don’t know how long the L.A. Times can keep denying that prices are falling in so many areas, and continue talking about the “affordable bright spots” in the Los Angeles county market, if dollar volumes are falling like this. Anyway, here are the charts.

Comment by renterbychoice
2007-03-10 19:43:13

that is some very interesting analysis. send it to the paper, see if they get back to you.

 
 
Comment by BanteringBear
2007-03-10 10:55:42

I’m seeing steadily rising inventory in the markets I track (WA, OR, NV), but no astounding increases to speak of. Homes still selling, albeit fewer than last year. I think, if a minimum of as little as 5% down was mandatory, it would push hordes of sheeple out of the market. The poor and uneducated types with no money down had quite a hand in this madness. When they cannot get into their $200-$300k starter homes with zero down, this will, in turn, kill the move up market, and sales in general. I am anxious to see how this spring/summer turn out.

 
Comment by sf jack
2007-03-10 10:58:14

This week, condo inventory in my small neighborhood jumped significantly… and maybe this is unsurprising given the small dataset, some seasonal factors and the cyclical deflating that is occurring.

Or, perhaps all the subprime problems in the news is finally having an impact on the “all is well” crowd in San Francisco. There was also a “Foreclosure” article in the Chronicle earlier this week that basically said one should act sooner, rather than later, to avoid that fate (one solution: “sell”).

 
Comment by Tyrone
2007-03-10 11:11:03

A quick note on second homes in Northre Wisconsin. Vilas County took a 8% haircut last year. 1680 listings for lake homes. Average weely actual transfers…4. Lakes homes are toast.

 
Comment by nocoapprsr
2007-03-10 11:33:01

Four more orders for pre-foreclosure appraisals this week. The names of the lenders are not surprising, Fremont and Ownit.

 
Comment by fla to pa
2007-03-10 12:30:23

In my little part of the world I see Auctions, Auctions everywhere. Used to be estate sales which would include house and belongings now it’s just the house and lot. All I can think of is flippers that flopped or HECLO that are now more than the thing is worth. Been to few none sold at fianl bid price in other words sellers dream price was not reached.

Wonder if this post will show up? If not I must be banned from this site. I know the last 2 post never made it to the the thread. Oh well still fun to read here.

 
Comment by Tango in Uniform
2007-03-10 13:56:32

Possible inflection point in Montana (Billings):

Average Sale Price

January mean sale price is down 3.5% from December. And as you can see from the graph, mean prices are down for the first time in many years. Sales are up YOY some months, down others. Inventory has slipped behind last year’s numbers, but I’m not quite sure why.

Unfortunately, nobody reports median sale prices here. Stats are very hard to find. It’s hard to tell where things are going, but they may be turning.

By the way, I should have a new Billings video out sometime in April. I also have a piece in a local business journal this coming week. Watch for it here!

 
Comment by rentor
2007-03-10 14:13:47

http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/102558/Debating-standards-for-mortgage-lenders
Which bubble states are having hearings about mortgage lending
NONE I SUSPECT

 
Comment by John Fontain
2007-03-10 17:26:22

Northern Virginia prices drop in February. Numbers came out yesterday:

Avg -2% YoY
Median -4% YoY
New listings 2400, new pendings 1,670

Also, prices fell from January to February. Last year (and historically) price rose from January to February as the spring selling season began.

 
Comment by Jay_Huhman
2007-03-10 21:31:05

I follow the listings in Oak Park, Illinois which is just outside of Chicago.

The 4bed/2bath listings at realtor.com have increased from 107 early in the year to 147 now. Ask prices seem to have come down about 10% from last fall. Currently there is a small inventory of 4/2 houses asking under 400K which was not true last fall.

One nice looking place with a list price of 299K that I thought might be a foreclosure was an auction; this was not memtioned on realtor.com. Seller has a hidden reserve price too.

Comment by Ken
2007-03-11 09:47:19

Jay,

Accordong to Zip Realty the Chicago metro area has seen inventory go from 75,000 to over 81,000 in less than a month.

http://chicagobubbleblog.blogspot.com/

 
 
Comment by ajh
2007-03-11 01:29:25

Well here in Canberra, Australia, I have to admit prices are rising again, up 10% or so in the last 6 months.

There was an editorial in yesterday’s MSM on this very topic, with the reporter expressing disbelief as to why people were buying in at such massive income multiples. Median price ($A450K) locally is about 6 times median household income.

All the usual suspects were trotted out as justification and examined, but in the end he just did the journalistic equivalent of shrugging his shoulders.

Comment by Lionel
2007-03-11 10:53:20

6X income? That’s nothing. In LA we’re at 11.5X.

Comment by fkuucz
2007-03-12 08:26:29

Jeepers. Ours is 4X, and at times it feels like were are overextended.

Comment by Chad
2007-03-12 13:41:09

Don’t worry, you still are at 4x. I’m at 1.8x and I still hate it.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by Wheatie
2007-03-11 05:36:36

I have casually been tracking the 60187 area code, which is a nice suburb of Chicago. First week in January, realtor.com had 435 listings. Yesterday, the number was 661. So, approximately 50% increase in stock. This past week saw the highest spike with 80 new listings. Prices with little decline, but slowly drifting. I have seen some homes sell that previously were rotting on the market last year. I guess this might be a weak buying season at the moment.

 
Comment by winjr
2007-03-11 08:53:50

Inventory, per Zip Realty:

TAMPA
01/21/07 59,865
01/27/07 60,665
02/03/07 60,627
02/10/07 61,771
02/17/07 62,274
02/24/07 62,658
03/03/07 62,383
03/09/07 62,923

MIAMI/FTL
01/21/07 103,131
01/27/07 104,442
02/03/07 106,008
02/10/07 107,150
02/17/07 108,591
02/24/07 109,638
03/03/07 106,916
03/09/07 104,095

ORLANDO
01/21/07 32,341
01/27/07 33,030
02/03/07 33,123
02/10/07 33,702
02/17/07 34,093
02/24/07 34,398
03/03/07 34,365
03/09/07 35,108

PHILA
01/21/07 32,698
01/27/07 32,494
02/03/07 32,216
02/10/07 32,474
02/17/07 32,611
02/24/07 32,552
03/03/07 32,445
03/09/07 32,852

ATLANTA
01/21/07 57,620
01/27/07 59,127
02/03/07 58,956
02/10/07 60,456
02/17/07 60,844
02/24/07 61,895
03/03/07 61,947
03/09/07 63,762

BOSTON
01/21/07 42,170
01/27/07 44,434
02/03/07 42,292
02/10/07 42,818
02/17/07 42,828
02/24/07 42,870
03/03/07 43,149
03/09/07 43,806

BALT.
01/21/07 46,025
01/27/07 46,178
02/03/07 45,225
02/10/07 45,835
02/17/07 45,708
02/24/07 45,877
03/03/07 45,777
03/09/07 47,068

Miami/Ft. Lauderdale appears to be a real anomoly.

Comment by Bob Carpenter of Rhode Island
2007-03-11 09:32:25

Those Boston numbers seem to be right on the money. I just noticed a jump (not substantial) in listings in the last week alone. The next few weeks should be telling.

 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-03-12 11:12:56

but Atlanta is the next hot market
CNN and MSN money and others say so

 
 
Comment by ft lauderdale
2007-03-11 09:17:03

it is odd, from the “ground” we aren’t seeing many sales.. perhaps people are giving up and leasing, (or attempting to lease)

Comment by Chad
2007-03-12 13:45:34

I think it was mentioned here already on another thread. But, when the bank takes back a property, it is considered a “sale”. So if this is true, then the sales #’s will be grossly inflated. Okay all you English professors, did I use “grossly” correctly?

 
 
Comment by wittbelle
2007-03-11 09:55:32

I had my alarm set this a.m. to get the mr. to the airport, and woke up to the irritating sound of “Ken Michaels”, the host of “Mortgage Makeover”, a syndicated radio program. Have any of you heard of this guy? One of the calls he took was from a woman in Bakersfield who was living in a home with $50K “equity”, (whatever that means these days), she had $17K in debt and wanted to buy a new, bigger home for $360K, if I am not mistaken. His advice? Take out a loan against 90% of the equity, pay off the debt and use the balance toward the new, bigger home, but wait to sell the old home until the market turns around. It’s a good time to buy, but a terrible time to sell, he tells her. “But then I’ll have two morgages to pay,” the woman argued. Michaels replied, “You won’t have to start making payments on the equity loan until June, and if the market is still down, you can rent it out.” So, then she’ll have two maxed out mortgages on two properties that are poised to lose their value? How many of you out there find this advice frightening? I know the guy’s a mortgage broker and all, but this just seems irresponsible to me. This after he just ripped New Century a new a$$hole about what scum they are on the air. And the experts are saying it’s just the sub-prime lenders who are in trouble… I think not.

Comment by Chad
2007-03-12 13:49:23

You were expecting him to tell listeners that he sucks too? He paid for the airtime, but he can blow wind all day, I won’t listen. If there are a few left out there who will, caveat emptor.

 
 
Comment by Ken
2007-03-11 10:01:17

“More than 54,000 homeowners in the Chicago area were 60 days behind on their mortgage payments and in serious danger of going into default as of Dec. 31, 2006. That’s 14.5 percent of an estimated 374,000 subprime loans in the greater Chicago standard metropolitan area…”

Foreclosures for Chicago in January ‘07 were up nearly 110% over the same time last year according to Bankrate

http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/real-estate/reminiguide07/maps/chicago.asp?caret=2

http://chicagobubbleblog.blogspot.com/

 
Comment by Ken
2007-03-11 10:03:36

A friend of mine sent me this email observation about a soutwest suburb of Chicago…

“I was down in Lemont yesterday getting my taxes
done by an accountant who works out of his house. Very nice neighborhood (700k+)…but
it’s still Lemont.

Just on his block there were six houses for sale and
most of them looked empty. The house next to his was
part of a mortgage scam where the straw buyer pays an
inflated amount then walks away. The bank ultimately
forclosed and utilities were turned off til the pipes
froze and broke. There was water everywhere which
they left standing…now the place is covered in mold.”

http://chicagobubbleblog.blogspot.com/

Comment by GeorgeSalt
2007-03-11 12:02:48

“The bank ultimately forclosed and utilities were turned off til the pipes froze and broke. There was water everywhere which they left standing…now the place is covered in mold.”

Well, that will help them get the property off their books [/sarcasm]

It just goes to show that banks aren’t in the business of property management.

 
 
Comment by ABQ Infidel
2007-03-11 12:02:03

Albuquerque, NM: My boyfriend and I are looking to buy a small, reasonably priced (under $150k) house. At the moment, we are both in my 1 bedroom condo with 4 cats, 2 ferrets, 3 bicycles and 3 computers. We looked at a little house next to the Rio Grande yesterday, in a rather “ghetto” area. It was a nice house, but nothing spectacular. Budget-rate carpeting, small bedrooms, clean but not brand-new baths, no landscaping. The owners bought the house in July 2004 for $92k (after it had been remodeled), and now want to sell it for $139k! $47k profit for merely living in it for 2.5 years. We made a verbal offer of $110k, which will still give them a $10k profit after paying the RE commission. No answer yet. We didn’t want to waste time with a written offer if they are not willing to even consider it. There are really no comparable houses in the neighborhood that have sold recently…mostly “fixers”…so they are not basing their asking price on comps!

Comment by txchicK57
2007-03-11 13:52:44

Have you looked in Corrales? I saw some decent looking stuff there.

 
Comment by Chad
2007-03-12 13:54:24

STICK TO YOUR GUNS - Or be prepared to walk away.

 
 
Comment by lavi d
2007-03-11 12:49:29

http://www.lasvegascitylife.com/articles/2007/03/08/news/local_news/iq_12980149.txt

“In the next six months, I think we’ll see stable to flat prices,” he said. “After that, they’ll rise.”

As usual. Local reporter swallows REIC line in print. No mention of possible reversion-to-mean, just “Buyers Market”.

 
Comment by txchicK57
2007-03-11 13:51:31

Okay, I’ll know the dump is over when I can buy this for 250K

http://portland.craigslist.org/mlt/rfs/291604128.html

Comment by PDXrenter
2007-03-11 18:51:01

it’ll take time but I think it’ll get there. chrck back next year in July maybe…

 
 
Comment by dr digits
2007-03-11 19:25:38

Finally saw it with my own two eyes…Price reductions in a new development in Phila. ex-burbs ranging from 60-90K (10-15% off asking). Went by this Sat. to see the area again and surprise - NOBODY at the sales trailer. I’m thinking now, another $25-50K reduction might be in order. Oh the joy of not having to buy from someone who has to sell. I can hardly wait to tell the realtor at the competing development about the price reductions down the road from her’s. I just earned $90K from being patient. This popcorn rocks Neil!

dd

 
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