Post Local Housing Market Observations Here!
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? Price reductions? “For Harver Bautista, these are the best of times in the mortgage-lending business and the worst. Mr. Bautista said that generally prices have fallen at least 10% or more in the past several months, depending on the neighbourhood. Home prices within commuting distance of Washington start at about US$400,000.”
“‘People selling in northern Virginia are taking the biggest hit. Prices there have already fallen to 2004 levels and even if they price it reasonably, they are dreaming if they think they are going to sell. There are too many listings to even look at,’ he said.”
Industry shakeups? “The woes of the subprime lending industry were felt Friday in Kansas City, as NovaStar Financial Inc. announced a 17 percent reduction of its 2,000-strong work force.”
“A spokesman for NovaStar, Richard M. Johnson, said the cuts were made ‘to reduce costs in line with what’s going on in the mortgage market. The company has been sued by investors who saw the company’s market value tumble by nearly $1 billion. NovaStar attributed its fourth-quarter results to higher-than-expected loan defaults.”
“The news came a day after NovaStar reported to the Securities and Exchange Commission that on Feb. 12 the compensation committee of its board of directors approved bonus payments to NovaStar’s executives for their performance in 2006.”
Changes in lending? “According to the experts, there is good news and bad news. Knoxville and East Tennessee, in general, are doing quite well in the housing market. The bad news is, people with bad credit, who may have been approved several years ago, may not be able to get a loan now.”
“‘It’s a very scary time,’ says Loren Riddick, a loan officer with United Capital Mortgage. ‘The problem is now is that those lending opportunities may not even be there.””
“They may find themselves in a situation where they have a 7 percent rate or 8 percent rate now and then in just a few months, they may be at 13 to 15 percent,’ Riddick says.”
Failed projects? “An empty Meeting Street lot that was supposed to be transformed into condominiums and townhomes will remain vacant for the time being. Across the street, Charleston-based Bennett-Hofford Co. plans to redevelop a 159-unit apartment complex, though specific plans have not been announced.”
“The slowing housing market has factored into the decision to temporarily shelve 400 Meeting, as speculative investors have all but retreated from the condo sector, said Russ Davis, one of the partners.”
Here in the Inland Empire of SoCal, I rent in one of the most desirable areas out here (Rancho Cucamonga, new neighborhood next to the new upscale Victoria Gardens mall/entertainment ctr) where realtors say demand is supposed to be the highest.
Next door neighbor’s house has been for sale for over a year and vacant, the latest “pending sale” sign has once again been removed as of yesterday, and it’s back on the market. I assume the buyer’s either can’t qualify for a loan or are just getting cold feet. He still refuses to reduce the price from an astronomical 688k (cookie-cutter 2,800 sq ft home) on a small lot.
Across the street is the nicest house on the block (pebble-tec pool etc) and went into escrow after only two months on the market, but it’s a weak offer as they are still accepting back-ups. Overall, the really nice homes are still moving in this area after a couple of monhts (for about 5% off) but the rest are just sitting with no substantial price reductions yet.
A Rancho Cucamonga home for 688K? Now that’s the best comedy of the week!! You might as well live in Victorville, at least you don’t have the unbearable smog. Dropping off the Cajon Pass into the RC area is like dipping yourself in a cesspool. (oh, and at least homes in Victorville are only 150K overpriced, not 350K overpriced……a 688k house in RC, puhhh-leeeease!)
I was going to buy that house for asking price. Thanks for telling us and me all I want to know about Rancho Cucamonga.
http://tinyurl.com/2gaztd
http://tinyurl.com/29bq7y
When I saw this NYT story at Calculated Risk, I recognized a guy in the picture from an earlier blog entry. Sure enough, it’s the same guy from an earlier NYT story. I think he’s wearing the same clothes, so they probably just used the same photos. Anyway, you can see a “before and after” view of the market through this pair of news stories.
The first story mentioned that he is an appraiser who took out an interest only loan in August 2005 to buy a house 20 miles away from Reno. Wow. Talk about bad timing. That’s a rampage of bad decision-making.
Better keep a watch out for him on Foreclosure.com
Did you see the chart in that article?
http://graphics.nytimes.com/images/2005/08/28/business/28loan.inline.gif
In 1999 about 3% of home buyers used a interest-only loan, in 2005 60% of home buyers used such a loan.
Complete insanity!
While 60% is too high, 3% was too low. Through 1999, most people got 30-year fixed loans, yet lived in their homes an average of 7 years. So they were barely paying any principal anyway.
So if you’re not planning on living in a home for at least 10 years, an interest-only loan makes sense instead of a 30-year-fixed. Of course, in 1999, downpayments were usually required…
I must append my post above. If people are now getting ADJUSTABLE interest-only mortgages that ultimately adjust upward, they are definitely crazy.
Don’t listen to the RE line of people moving every 7 years.
All our neighbors here have been here for more than 20 years,
raising kids, buiding the community.
There is no place for IO loan. No intelligent person should .
I HIGHLY recommend your taking the time to read the two links that “STL Engineer” posted above. The first one, from mid 2005, is particular good because the writer clearly warned us of the dangers of the RE boom.
I hear your sentiment. When i first moved to LA 13 years ago and rented on the beach while attending law school, I was like “Rancho what?” I used to make of those people driving 40 miles to LA to their jobs just so they can buy a house for 120k. Ha ha…now I wish I had picked up a few homes myself, I’d be a 30-something millionaire. In any event, 688k is about median here, N of the 210 freeway (I am south) the houses go for 900k-1.2M. Again, cookie-cutter newer homes, just big (4,400 sq ft).
Nope, got a better laugh on Friday– One of the guys at the office was asking me about a house he was thinking about buying in Corona. Looked up the area–$800k+ IN F*’NG CORONA! Corona, for God’s sake!
I started laughing so bad when I pulled it up, maybe he got the idea.
I bought a house in Corona in 1992 for 220k. Sold it in 2000 for 400k. It’s now worth 700k. Stupid housing bubble.
Oh, and “desirable” and “Rancho Cucamonga” have no business in the same sentence together.
Your post is a snapshot of pretty much all of the markets in the west. Countless houses are languishing on the market, oftentimes empty, with few price cuts. The staying power is remarkable to me. I never realized there were so many people willing and able to wait years to sell a home. I must admit, I thought they would capitulate sooner. In the markets I pay particular attention to, Western WA (rural), and Northern NV, a large percentage of the properties for sale, are last years listings. I sincerely believe that many were trying to time it, and get out at the top. Not all sellers are FB’s. A lot of greedheads are still trying to get absurd amounts for their homes, even though they owe very little, if anything. They don’t HAVE to sell, they just will for their fantasy price. This stubborness just adds to the sticky pricing. Of course, asking prices are an illusion. What is actually selling is the real story. From what I can tell, the properties moving are new listings coming on the market at more reasonable prices. The FB’s (those with no room to wiggle) will just be left out in the cold, and will most likely face foreclosure. The greedheads will either capitulate, or exit the market.
fencesitter…how about a zip code??? My wife and I are studying a move to southern ca from tucson and rancho cucamonga is a possibility. Thanks.
91739…
You’re moving FROM Tucson. Right. Do you have an inheritance or something? Be prepared for big sticker shock.
A report from the Coachella Valley, (part of IE?) with emphasis on the “hell” part:
I thought I had seen it all, but our local rag The Desert Sun has now resorted to grossly altering the weather forecast and recap. They have lowered the forecast for today to 83 degrees vs 101 at Weather.com. Forecast for tomorrow and rest of week, same thing lowered by about 15 degrees or so every day.
Let me say that again, our corrupt local paper has actually modified the WEATHER FORECAST to make our valley appear more appealing to visiting buyers. This weekend is the Pacific Life Open, a major pro tennis tourney, and there are scads of wealthy visitors from the CA coast here. The desperation to sell homes here is becoming a fever pitch. Major price cuts everywhere, in some cases up to $150,000 on an originally 650,000 dollar home in late 2005.
The Desert Sun didn’t even report Jan Sales figures, at all. There wasn’t a story on them. All the Coachella Valley zips except one or two were negative by 5-15% yoy and sales were again down. This week there was a blurb saying they weren’t available. BS - they have been on Dataquick’s website for at least 3 weeks now!
I cannot get over the local corruption in the real estate/mortgage/newsmaking-advertising complex. I realize they are “supposed” to cheerlead the local market but resorting to ludicrously trying to make our 100 degree desert appear to be more temperate is just pathetic. End of rant.
Coachella Valley is further east than “Inland Empire”. It is more like, well, Wasteland I guess is a good term for it. You know those Arizona deserts with the Saguaro cactus and such? That’s like an Amazon jungle compared to Coachella.
As someone born and raised in San Diego, I remember well those vacations when my parents loaded us up in the car to visit Murrieta Hot Springs, Gilman Hot Springs and Warner Hot Springs. The big attraction, of course, was the supposed rejuvenating powers of the natural “hot” springs.
Fast forward to the 21st century, all of these communities have been renamed, leaving out the “hot”.
Rest assured, all of these towns are still hot, and likely to get much hotter as global warming progresses. Combine that with increasingly limited water supplies and enormously-expensive energy costs, and I would imagine seeing these cities return to the once sleepy communities that they once were.
Our cookie cutter AZ nieghborhood has For Sale and For Rent signs everywhere. One little street looks like a neighborhood by the Love Canal, with just about every house on one block (6, I think) on the market. No SOLD signs, though and it seems to me that all the homes are still about 100K overpriced.
I notice a lot of existing homes lingering on the market around here.Most are just looking for someone stupid enough to pay the marked up price.Where there are a lot of new home builders it seems the competition is brutal.Some people just dont understand that new builders have dropped their prices and are a much better buy than an existing home.
At least they’re not “giving their houses away.”
Curt, I agree. The sellers aren’t stupid and aren’t going to “give their houses away”. It is a sellers God given right to make an enormous profit from being a home owner. It is the ignorant buyers that are stupid and don’t understand that they need to enrich the sellers and overpay for the privillege of home ownership.
The house across the street from me in Peoria finally sold. First asking 215K - sold 180K. 35K reduction.
In the close-in areas of No.Va. I follow the prices haven’t fallen too much yet. There still isn’t much inventory– as happened last year there was a sudden, drastic reduction in late fall as people took their homes off the market to wait for the ’spring rush’ — which never came. When it doesn’t come again this year I expect reality will finally begin to take hold.
Through the winter there was a town home in our old neighborhood with the exact same floor plan as the one we sold in ‘05. It was fixed up and going for about $10,000 less than ours, which sold ‘as is’. I don’t know whether they just pulled it off the market or if it finally sold. Still not enough of a discount to tempt me back into the market.
Hey Sarah I notice the same thing you are seeing. I always look at stuff in the Manassas area and just laugh. Nothing is moving and people have relisted at the begining of the year so the time on the market seems to be less.
Any DC-area folks know what’s happening in the Rockville-Gaithersburg area? Is inventory low, average or high? Are prices holding? Is anything selling?
my informal, unscientific ziprealty tracking of the DC Metro region has inventory on 1/17 at 45,595 and on 3/17 it is 48,114.
the houses I track inside the beltway haven’t really budged in asking prices, but looking outside the beltway i’d say initial listing prices are mixed at best… some lower, some still wishing.
geeah,
Just so you know, that 48K includes the DC and Baltimore areas.
I’ve been collecting statistics from Ziprealty for the Silver Spring area and inventory has increased from 625 houses on market last March to 945 right now.
Foreclosures for Montgomery county (from Foreclosures.com) has been astounding: from 4 foreclosures last March to 62 right now! Bankruptcies have increased from 339 last March to 526.
The private rental inventary rise on the noVa market and the owners are asking ridiculars high. It seems they will have a hard time to compete with the apartment management companies.
I always find it humorous when prospective landlords are asking rents well above and beyond what is possible. I see, at times, homes asking $2000 when $1600 would be the absolute maximum they could garner. These buffoons will allow the property to sit vacant for months on end rather than accept the going rate of$1500 and realize some immediate cash. After just 3 months of vacancy, while holding out for the $2k, they’ve already lost more money than if they would’ve leased it immediately for one year at $1500. But, then again, these people aren’t that bright since they put themselves into this bind to begin with.
Bear, there’s a rental in Santa Monica that’s been on the market for seven months for 3800. The owners recently turned down an offer of 3700!
These amateurs do not understand the price of vacancy.
You said it, Speculater.
In Santa Monica, I note that 560 Euclid St. is for rent. Looks like a nice house, 4/4.5 two story re-do on a 7500 ft lot, includes utilities, for only $13,500/month. How long do you bet that stays on the market?
Same here in Hemet. Rents still too high. Beginning to come down. Nothing I would move for.
I’ve been trying to rent a home for under $2500 in Westlake Village, CA for two months now. I had one deal inked and the owner suddenly raised the price to $2600. Another owner told me she cannot possibly lower the rent for her 3+2 1400 sq foot house because her carrying costs are $2500! I heard the same story from the owner of a 4+2 trying to get $3K in the same neighborhood and others discriminate against me because I have kids (it’s a very anti-kid place, Westlake Village). Generally, they sit empty for a few months, someone moves in for a few months, and then that person shelling out $2500-3K buys something locally and moves out. For a little while anybody with $3K/month can buy now whether they have good credit, downpayment or not but that window may be closing. I think the standards are being tightened to the point that those folks will be forced to rent. The local job market is still quite strong and I think there are going to be lots of renters (the bottom 20% of what would have been buyers last year) in the market so am thinking of raising my threshold. Any thoughts?
If it’s a nice house, I would pay the $2600/month and get a year’s lease. You are going to be competing with a lot of wanna-be buyers who just got locked out of the game if you wait much longer. A year from now, you might be able to get a better price as the inventory rises. Remember that Countrywide employs a lot of people near there - who will be out of jobs before long.
Thanks sm_landlord, I fear you are correct. I worked for Countrywide for nearly three years and that experience is what drove me to seek out these blogs. Even without Countrywide, there are lots of unfilled jobs out here. Can’t get too many people in the 80-150K income bracket to stay because of the cost of housing.
Yeah - I check the Alexandria inventory every few days — it’s below 1,400 - and I think Arlington is the same. It’s really been fairly stable — creeping up slowly — since the beginning of the year. I really expected to see a “beat the spring rush” surge.
One phenomenon I have noticed — and also read about — is that fewer of the new condos are in the MLS system — and a few of the many new Ballston/Clarendon hipster developments (like “Zoso” and other groovily named buildings) are going to be apartments instead of condos.
I am guessing that some of these remaining developments are going to try and do it by hoping to rope in buyers off foot traffic and advertising — and paying 3% co-ops to realtors who bring in buyers — but not trying to compete in the MLS system with everyone else.
I do notice some signs on properties in old town staying up for months at a time now.
Zoso? They named a condo development after Led Zeppelin IV?
Yep - their website and ads even have a Zepplinesque font for the logo. Makes me cringe.
See for yourself: http://www.zosocondo.com/
LOL. I’m surprised that they passed on a Houses-for-the-Holy type of name.
According to the weekly stats in the Friday Wash Times, Arlington Cty had a huge median drop Dec 05 to Dec 06. I think it was -17%. It could partly be the type of properties sold. I think the median for Fairfax might be under-estimated. The drop was only a few % accoring to the data.
I’ve been monitoring the close-in areas of NoVA, i.e., Alex. City, Arlington, and Falls Church City as well. Prices have been flat since summer 2005, and inventory is not up significantly since last year. This is in contrast to Pr. William and Loudon Counties, which are in the midst of bloodbaths. Anything close-in, however, that is turn key goes quickly, unless the seller wants an outrageous price. Bottom line thus far: there’s still demand for nice close-in neighborhoods, and I’ve yet to see the effect of foreclosure sales, etc. on inventory.
I disagree with you. Median and average prices in Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria City, and Falls Church are (collectively NOVA per MRIS.com) are down 11% since summer 2005.
I’d characterize today’s pricing as bi-polar. Some sellers are pricing below summer 2005, while others are listing similar properties for 30% above. It’s really whacky to see two similar homes priced very very differently. It shows me that some sellers are realistic while others are still in fantasy-land.
Instead of looking at the asking price, use Zillow to look at the “recently solds” so that you can see the selling price. Across the board, from townhouses in Loudoun to SFH in Fairfax, I’m seeing a ~14% decline from the peak.
Townhouses that sold for $430k in 2005 are now selling at $370, and SFH that sold for $810k are now selling for $700k. I’m also starting to see some more dramatic declines — closer to 20% off from peak (i.e. 80% of peak price).
Here in Brooklyn, prices up 15% compared to 38% in prior year . . . according to Brooklyn Papers. Detail shows that some neighborhoods are actually down, while others are up. This year, should be flat to down. Long time residents realize the recent increases are nuts, but all the newbie condo buyers (DUMBO rocks, man!) don’t get it. It will be a very unpleasant surprise for many lux condo buyers.
http://www.brooklynpaper.com/stories/30/11/30_11realestateprices.html
I grew up in Brooklyn and my family still lives throughtout NYC. My mom was telling me recently that after the hot condo market in the late 80’s, condo sellers in neighborhoods like Park Slope couldn’t find buyers even as prices plummetted. Auctions ensued and condos sold for about 50% below the original asking prices.
Here’s a NYTimes story from 1990 which documents some of that action: http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0CEFDD1131F933A25755C0A966958260
Key West a condo we looked at for 450k was just relisted at 350k.
There are starting to be condos and small single families in the 275k -325k range, which didn’t exist 6-8 months ago when we were first looking to move here.
In the LA Times today, there’s a listing for a house in Brentwood. It’s listed as — 7,995,000!
Am I the only one amused by the exclamation point? The intention of this punctuation, it would seem, is for someone to read and think, “what a bargain! Only 8 million bucks!”
Lionel, did you check out the one on Dalehurst Ave. in Westwood (looks nice in the pix) at 2,995,000 REDUCED! (like the exclamation mark will do anything for me?)
All the bizillion dollar homes kind of blend together for me, Cass. It’s why I’m packing up the family and moving to Seattle. I just rented a 3 bedroom craftsman for 1700 in a nice neighborhood there. And Seattle’s one of the more expensive cities! (There’s my own exclamation point. Ever since I made the decision to get out, the LA Times RE section has gone from being a maddening operatic vexation to a kneeslapping comedic joy. Much, much funnier than the actual funnies. I read it and I literally can’t believe ANYONE is buying these properties. Any of them. Are they all janitors?
the LA Times RE section has gone from being a maddening operatic vexation to a kneeslapping comedic joy.
I have absolutely no idea who is buying these houses, or where their money is coming from. I have seen a couple of those nice traditionals in Holmby Hills move, but others have been sitting. Too bad things got so bad you decided to move. Are you sure you are going to be able to live without the weekly comedy of the LA Times real estate section? It’s hard to beat. Anyway, I was in Seattle only once, but I loved the feel of the city. Good luck.
The market is incestuous. The only people who can afford a bubble home are people who just sold a bubble home. What’s 1.2 mil when you just sold your 800 sq ft pile of crap in Glendale for 900k?
Good point, bozonian, it really is just a big pyramid scheme, with money moving around faster than cards in a game of three-card Monte. Right about now, entry into the game seems more and more difficult and the pyramid or house of cards should come crashing down.
Cass, thanks for the bon voyage. As to the “too bad” part, not really, I’m excited for a change. As nasty as this housing bubble has been, it has affected me in a positive way in that I was pushed to find an alternative life. My wife and I are looking forward to the move.
“The market is incestuous. The only people who can afford a bubble home are people who just sold a bubble home. What’s 1.2 mil when you just sold your 800 sq ft pile of crap in Glendale for 900k?”
Yep. In fact, I just saw a new commercial from the NAR touting “It’s a great move up market”. Other than slamming some illegals and braindead types in $500k starter homes, the move up market is the only one with a pulse.
I’ve noticed a huge surge in the number of extremely expensive, massive houses, in the posher areas of L.A come on the market recently.
Unless you have a large extended family, who needs a 5000 sq ft house? At over $2 million?
Tragically, if you do a little research, you find that they took a decent sub-2000 sq ft house, built a monster in its place and adjusted the price to reflect a 20+% increase each year. Then, the places sit and sit.
Seriously, I’m reaching the end of my tether with the properties in L.A - even modest houses, in reasonably decent neighbourhoods (which would suit me just fine, thanks - I have no need for a McMansion in a gated community full of movie stars) go for over 1/2 a million dollars.
Someone tell me when the madness will end?
Speedingpullet, I don’t think anyone knows when this madness is going to end. High end flippers are still looking to buy homes over 1M. Go figure. All we can be sure of is every day we are getting closer to a state or normalcy.
Speedingpullet, one the enduring effects of this madness is that entire neighborhoods have been ruined. North of Montana in Santa Monica used to be chock full of beautiful old quiant Spanish houses. One by one they’ve been replaced by hideous gargantuan pantheons of greed and ostentation. It burns me up. It really does. There’s no way to turn the clock back on this, outside of a truly horrible earthquake; and I’m afraid I can’t wish that on anyone.
Lionel, speedingpullet, smlandlord and all those interested in LA’s Westside in particular. Today I came across a blog specializing in this area.
http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com
check it out. They are keeping track of some sales, and it looks as if the price correction should begin to show up soon.
Thanks, Cass, didn’t know about that one. There’s also this… http://westside-bubble.blogspot.com/
cool, I’ll check that one out. Thanks
Thanks for the links from me, too - I’ve bookmarked them both.
Which neighborhood?
Here in Portland, ME, there is still very low inventory. A lot of the inventory is overpriced junk on both the low and higher mcmansion type end. However, anything priced fairly well - in the low to high 200’s - looks like it is moving very fast. We definately had a runup in the last 5 years, but nothing compared to Boston, NY. Prices have probably dropped 5 to 10% from peak 2005. I am starting to think that people w/ nice, modest homes in good neighborhoods will just not sell them. I mean, where would they move? Tough call here…
Sounds a lot like what we are seeing here in Pullman, WA.
Land is relatively inexpensive ($45-50k/standard lot), so we have considered buying a lot and having a nice modest home built. BUt then we’d be in the middle of crappy McMansions and still have to find a good builder willing to build a modest home (at present they are all caught up in being “luxury” home builders).
$45-$50k for a standard lot is very expensive as far as I am concerned, especially for Eastern Washington. If you were talking about 5 acres, then I would consider that not too bad. Otherwise, that’s insane for that area.
Now that you mention it, yes $45k for a lot is quite a bit given that even farmland adjacent to town might fetch $5k/acre at most. This is all wheat/barley/lentil land, and there is no shortage of land in Eastern WA. (Having just moved from Bozeman, this lot price seemed relatively inexpensive.)
Right now there are 110 lots on the MLS, with less than ten having offers. And this doesn’t include all of the lots that builders have options on that are not being exercised.
PLENTY of lots given that there weren’t more than 100 total home sales for new and existing homes in Pullman all of last year and probably not more than 20-30 new homes built in a typical year. At a minimum we have 5 years supply of lots.
Report from Santa Barbara, Ca :
Big news. The median sales price for detached homes in south Santa Barbara County dropped to $1,000,000 in February, a year over year drop of 14% from February of 2006. The year to date drop (January and February) is 11%.
The February, 2007 median sales price is almost at the 2004 price, which was $945,000.
This should be a huge event to people in SB. The 1 Million dollar median price was played up big in 2004. Now, all that gain has been wiped out.
However, here’s the rest of the story.
On Wednesday, We had a major gang fight in downtown Santa Barbara. Over 100 gangbangers converged on the intersection of State and Carrillo. One of the little f##kers was stabbed to death.
The fight and murder are not the big story, however. It’s the denial on the part of the people and city government that’s news.
City Council member Iya Falcone summed up the head in the sand attitude of the people here:
” This event was just an aberration”
That’s an exact quote. Our police chief, Cam Sanchez, had this to say:
” This doesn’t happen here”
Since coming to this blogsite I’ve learned a lot about how people deny the obvious. Home owners who bought in 2005-2006 will not accept the fact that they are underwater in their mortgages. People who bought in 2002-2004 can not accept the fact that they’re going down with the ship.
I don’t want this to turn into a rant. Let me conclude by saying that people in Santa Barbara and California are in a deep state of denial about illegal immigration, gangs and the real estate market.
This does not bode well for California or the nation.
Santa Barbara County also has had a huge increase in preforeclosures and foreclosures.
“conclude by saying that people in Santa Barbara and California are in a deep state of denial about illegal immigration, gangs and the real estate market.”
The denial starts from the incompetent moron in DC who fiddles while Rome burns
To be fair, I think you should make it “morons”. All sides are to blame.
As I have stated previously, SoCal is a dangerous place. If lilly-white Santa Barbara is having gang problems, people in L.A. nned to wake up. There are still people, even on this blog, who think that L.A. is a good investment. It isn’t, and that includes The Valley”. Just wait until the stuff really hits the fan and illegals’ unemployment goes up due to construction slowdown. You will really see gang problems then.
I will enjoy the coming craziness. Californians of the last 40 years wanted a welfare state, and they got what they deserved. Maybe if we raise taxes and start some gov’t programs…..
Santa Barbara is *not* lily-white, it is like 35% hispanic.
Some elementary schools here are 90%+ hispanic
Update on Pullman, WA. Town of 25,000 home to Washington State University near the Idaho border. We appear to be in the midst of a standoff between stubborn sellers/builders and buyers who feel they have the upper hand.
We are actively looking for a home, but are also aware that homes are listed 15-20% above the long term trend line so proceeding with caution. (We can stay in our current, inexpensive, WSU managed apartment indefinitely.)
From our realtor:
“The entire local market seems to be flat lining. Not sure if people are just waiting and watching, or if they are all content in their present places. The ‘better’, of the homes in each price bracket seem to be selling, but the rest are moving slowly. Definitely a different market (so far), than the past 3 to 4 years.”
The main problem is that builders have almost exclusively target the high end of the market. So there are a ton of $300-500k 3000-4000 sq ft “luxury homes” languishing on the market, that few here really wants or can afford. (Note: “luxury” means a tract home thrown up in 4 months with vaulted ceilings, granite countertops and wood floors.) Even homes listed at $300k range aren’t really moving as that is expensive relative to local wages. Even two years ago $300k would have been the top of this entire market.
The problem now is that there are very few existing homes on the market–no one wants to move up given the uncertainty and cost–so very little in the way of nice entry level homes. Most of the “cheap” homes are still $200k for student rental quality.
Everyone we know is looking for a nice 3/2, 1800-2000 sq ft in the mid-$200k range, well built but without all the bling (e.g. granite counter tops)… but these homes don’t really exist.
The few existing homes that do come on the market are generally outrageously priced (particularly the FSBOs) and don’t move.
“Everyone we know is looking for a nice 3/2, 1800-2000 sq ft in the mid-$200k range, well built but without all the bling (e.g. granite counter tops)… but these homes don’t really exist.”
They do….they are just not new construction. The “thing” in new construction is granite counter tops and stainless steel appliances. So if a potential buyer doesn’t want these, they shouldn’t look at the new stuff, or they should realize that they have remodeling to do once they buy it…which I think would be a ridiculous expense. Also, don’t forget that new construction (from 2000, forward) is not the “best” construction. Many issues are coming to the forefront that should be taken seriously or they will cost you thousands.
BayQT~
Actually, there are almost no existing homes on the market. Newer homes from 2004 forward, asking new home prices. 1950’s to 1970’s R2 homes that have more often than not been rentals and need serious work. Big doughnut in the middle.
Holy moly. 4000 sq. feet?!?! Who needs that much space? Soon, people will be buying these, putting a wall in the middle and make them into duplexes :_)
In S Florida I am looking for a nice new or newer 1800-2000 (under air) sq ft in the 130- 150K range. I hate granite with it’s horrible water spots it’s just as bad as stainless steel appliances with finger prints.
These homes used to exist and will again.
Patience is the key now for all of us.
SKB
Inventory up in the two zipcodes I am watching, prices falling, we are tormenting a realtor today by going to look at a house
Down the street there are 3 open house signs, I am watching to see if they get any traffic.
Rancho Cucamonga! That’s close to an area called Fontana which is the site of the massive Kaiser Steel Mill which was closed down decades ago by the EPA because it was so badly polluted and the massive lot is still vacant. Obviously the builders couldn’t find a crooked politician who would risk smoothing the way to buying the land for building which is large enough for many, many thousands of s*itbox houses. I’m sure several builders tried.
Let me describe Rancho Cucamonga which is situated some 30 miles from downtown Los Angeles (another toilet). In the late 1980’s, I had a contract which required me to work there for 3 months.
Rancho Cucamonga has been built up because it is close to Los Angeles and perfect for large warehouses and also as a distribution centers because the land was CHEAP (once). The land was cheap because this smog laden, barren piece of real estate is as hot as hades in summer (110 degrees not unusual) and gets hit by VERY powerful winds around September, October and November. It’s desert sdo it’s cold in winter. It’s not unusual to see 18 wheeler trucks either tipped over by wind gusts on the 10 Freeway or being ordered to pull over by the cops until the winds decrease.
Fontana, next to Rancho Cucamonga, has to be one of California’s best entries for “The Golden States Finest Sh*thole.” A great place to build a maximum security prison…..but as for living there with a family? Jeeez. These areas are places which were perfect for dumping toxic materials produced by factories for years until we realized that dumping unregulated toxic material in desert areas would end up biting us in the ass.
Here’s the bottom line. If I was told I could buy a property in Rancho Cucamonga or Fontana for $1,000 but I would have to live in it for at least 5 years, I would run from the offer as fast as my legs would carry me.
To put it in a nutshell, if you ever saw the movie, “Erin Brockovich”, both Ranch Cucamonga or Fontana would fit right in.
Fontana is affectionately known as ‘Fontucky’ because of the illegal hillbilly population.
What makes a hillbilly illegal?
Come and listen to a story ’bout a man named Juan
A poor Mexican, fed his family beans and corn
And then one day he puts down his spade and hoe
‘Cos he’s had enough of this, and he thinks it’s time to go
North that is, USA, Golden State
Well the first thing you know ol’ Juan’s a building man
On the go every day, takes any job he can
Lookin’ out for a way he can house his family
And a smooth broker man says ‘leave it all to me’
A loan that is, teaser rate, option ARM
Now the loan’s reset, and Juan can’t afford to pay
And the work’s dried up, so he’s got no cause to stay
So he’s off with his stuff to his old locality
And he thanks you all for your hospitality
If you were to sing that song on a street corner in Santa Barbara you would be drowned in a vat of double cappuccino/latte by the limo liberals.
Trust me, people are only liberal when others have to deal with the “indesirables”. Once Santa Baraba continues to have gang problems, you will see those same white limo liberals change their tunes, and quick.
“The bad news is, people with bad credit, who may have been approved several years ago, may not be able to get a loan now.”
Try, several “weeks” ago.
“An empty Meeting Street lot that was supposed to be transformed into condominiums and townhomes will remain vacant for the time being. Across the street, Charleston-based Bennett-Hofford Co. plans to redevelop a 159-unit apartment complex, though specific plans have not been announced.”
by redevelopment they mean convert to condos after painting the walls. at a million a piece thats 159 million , I think thats the calculation.
“by redevelopment they mean convert to condos after painting the walls. at a million a piece thats 159 million , I think thats the calculation. “
Give them some slack, I bet for a million dollars they would not only paint the “condos” but also include granite countertops quarried by the finest prison laborers in China.
Here is the LINK:
http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=125516
Man that used to be GHETTO area when i lived there 15 years ago..Before Hugo came ashore….. And the cooper river bridge was also in Ghetto territory dangerous to drive crosstown at night
But now the ghetto folks are gone and time to upgrade.
I’m going to the Parade Of Homes today.
For those of you who don’t know, the PoH is where all the builders show off their new locations/neighborhoods, etc. It’s really a big thing “to do” in Mpls. Moreso than other places.
We like it because it’s springtime and usually there is a nice warm sunny day. (today though it’ll be chilly and sunny). Gives us a reason to get outside.
On the Mpls/SP front: a lot of the HIGH end stuff is coming on line. There are a few luxury condo highrises that are just opening, most notably the “Carlyle” in downtown Mpls. (multimillion $$ condos). We’ll go take a look.
There are also several other multimillion dollar condos that are just finishing or are mostly through (they’re rushing to get them to market before spring).
Let’s see how Mpls can absorb them. (answer: they can’t).
I haven’t seen many “for sale” signs around the actual CITY of Mpls, but I’ll really look out today as I drive all over.
I am keeping track of housing in Lexington, Kentucky for an anticipated retirement in 3 years. In one nice area called Andover, of the 15 or so houses I am tracking at least 6 have had price reductions of between 700 to 7,000 dollars in the past month.
Just posted on previous (”Loans Haunt”) thread … but it’s local for sure. Latest loan request to me was for $50K from a lady who is spending $90K to buy a lot and small mobile in a gated park, PHX area. She wants the $50K for construction of “Arizona room” addition. I advised her to postpone the construction till the contractors are a little hungrier. She has a micro-version of the “it’s different here” view — thinks the park where she is buying is exceptional. I told her to READ THIS BLOG for a few days. I told her I am not afraid to lend $50K as senior lienholder on this property, but I thought she should be afraid to put $140K iright now nto a tin-can-with-cement-appendage.
Geezuz, that’s just nuts. Sinking $140k into a mobile in AZ. I know of 2000 square foot homes on nice lots, in good areas selling for that not too many years ago. Where is this anyway?
A co-worker here bought a house last year in Beaumont, California.
Here’s a new twist. He got a piggy backed, piggy back loan. That’s right, a 5/15/80. Three loans.
Anyone else seen this?
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,259109,00.html
Reminds me of the three little pig story in England last week.
Reporting in from the building of lenders…
The guy I know from the commercial mortgage office says he’s just happy not to be in residential, “because they’re %&$!ed.”
An underwriter from the bank says they write good mortgages, it’s just the subprime people who have made a mess. Although I was somewhat reassured when she said that, even with a buy down, they still qualify people at the eventual full payment level.
The wholesale guy I hang out with was laughing his head off that someone wanted to do a cash out refi less than six months after purchase in this market. I believe the exact quote was, “He doesn’t own the house, we do.”
And the most fun I had all week was explaining to a loan officer from the “BC is totally better than subprime, no really!” office was asking one of his processors how they would handle income verification for someone out on workers’ comp. Being a comp adjustor, I started laughing. I had to explain that he can’t verify disability income past 45 days (even if an injured worker has a surgery that will keep them off work for a minimum of, say, six months, per the CA labor code, the doctor can’t take the IW off work more than 45 days at a go — it’s a reporting requirement). As disability income can’t be verified out three years and he’s not currently receiving income from his actual job, the loan officer threw his hands up and said, “That’s it, we’re going reduced.” Ah, nothing like good, old-fashioned American ingenuity at work.
In sadder news, despite my best efforts, including linking to this blog and pulling out the “My dad used to be a loan officer and he’s seen how fast real estate can tank, so I’m forbidden to buy for a couple years or until the market is sane again,” card, I think the woman who sits next to me is going to end up buying anyway. There are such good deals, yanno? I even tried pointing out that home prices in Sacramento doubled since 2003 and it’s not like living in Sacramento got twice as good during that time. Just falling on deaf ears. I could shoot her landlord for that $100/month rent hike that started her on this kick, followed by shooting her and her boyfriend for not having the sense to see that $850 is still much cheaper than buying a house in midtown.
There was a For Sale by Owner a block from Balboa Park in Golden Hill (San Diego) that I was watching. It was sitting empty for months. Ugly house, small lot, black metal bars on the windows, no front yard. A couple weeks ago I saw a young couple with a baby and dog moving in. How are they going to ever get out of that house if the market tanks and they have a growing family and need a bigger place? They will need to move to a better school district when the kid is ready for school anyway so my guess is they will need to sell in about three years, right at the bottom of the housing bust.
A starter shack with security bars on the window…
and people think renting is crazy?
I’m seeing For Sale signs sprouting up again like weeds in the past 2 1/2 weeks in areas I watch in North County, along with a few REOs this time. My favorite repeat offender listing is also back again this spring. It’s still only a million dollars for a thin slice of SD paradise right at the intersection of Ted Williams Parkway and Pomerado Rd. It’s the epitome of big stucco McBox with a premium view of Outback Steakhouse. Relax by the pool and 4 lanes of traffic.
and 6 lanes of traffic behind you on Ted Williams. What a steal!
Rent out the sides of that house for billboards and a cell tower…should be cash flow positive immediately.
About 10 years ago we rented a great old Spanish style house overlooking the Balboa golf course. Loved it there (even with all the gays) but had to get out of that neighborhood when we bought because of our soon to be school aged son. Unless you can afford private school, that part of town is terrible (Golden Hill is really bad).
Golden Hill - some of the most beautiful houses in San Diego, great views, close to Balboa and Downtown, but right on the border of the “hood”. Tiny apartments and subdivided lots packed with immigrants from Chiapas and Oaxaca. I swear, parts of Golden Hill look just like Tijuana. I joke to my friends that they need a passport to come visit me.
Western North Carolina is in full bubble mode. Very similar to Palm Beach County two years ago. Homes here two years ago in the 700-800 range now going for 1.3 to 1.5, the 400 to 450 range then now going for 600-650.
Ditto for upstate SC.
$200K last year now $250K,
$350K last year now $450K,
$450K last year now $600K.
Good luck at resale time!
I was talking to my neighbors about the bubble in Palm Beach County and the similarities to here and of course what did they say? “But it’s different here!!!”
We hear that too - “this is where everyone is moving to now!” - actually I read here recently that NC and SC are 2 of the top 3 for inbound vs. outbound UHaul trailers, but many of these newcomers will now be shut out of loans, so they may not be buyers.
Notably, I have 3 friends/acquaintances in the Mortgage biz (all pretty high up / successful, not newbies) and they are all working overtime to get the deals NOW because they “know what time it is”…
In Boca Raton, FL a developer just started a project of 32 houses and 172 town houses just under the flight pattern of the Boca Raton executive airport. The townhomes run from $676K to $850K base price. The houses run from $1.1M (for 3397 sq.ft.) to $1.4M (for 3913 sq.ft.) base price. These are not on large lots or on a lake, river, or any body of water, although there is a large lake bordering the community.
Am I the only person who thinks it would be crazy to buy into this or that those prices are insanely high? Who is going to pay $1.4 million for a house that’s in a neighborhood that has 6 times as many townhouses as detached houses? These houses may be nice, but they aren’t luxury houses by any means. I just took a boat trip along the Intracostal, so I’ve seen luxury houses.
When will this bubble end? It seems we are perpetually in a “price exorbitantly high and don’t sell” phase. Already, I know I can’t buy anything in 2007. Do you think 2008 will be any better or do we have to wait until at least 2010?
I don’t see how anyone would buy now, especially since doing so would lock you into the house for at least 10 years unless you take a substantial loss.
It will be at least the end of ‘08 before we even consider buying and not until we lowball quite a few offers.
No bubble in SD (South Dakota, that is.)
$17000 3 plus bdrm house
Reply to: see below
Date: 2007-03-13, 6:44PM CDT
3plus bedroom house ,2 bathrooms ,newer kitchen,large fenced in back yard ,single car garage,all on 3 acres ,located 25 miles north of mitchell,SD.
would make execellant hunting lodging.
http://tinyurl.com/2gaztd
http://tinyurl.com/29bq7y
These are a pair of stories featuring the same person, an appraiser in Reno, NV area. He bought a house 20 miles outside of Reno with an interest-only loan because that’s the only way he could afford it. He bought in August 2005, just about near the peak of the market. Wow.
1. bought at the top
2. used interest only and then bought the most he could afford
3. job is real estate dependent
4. bought at the outskirts of a small city that is especially real estate and tourism dependent and doesn’t have a lot of industry
A veritable rampage of bad decisions.
I expect to see him show up on foreclosure.com
I’d say he is the new poster boy for foreclosure.com!
What gets me are all of these ‘educated idiots’ who are in these situations. I talk to people around here and they seem completely clueless as to what is going on with the market. We’ve had 4 foreclosures in my neighborhood this year already, and my neighbors just keep bragging about how much their house is ‘worth’! I just shake my head in disbelief. These are very educated people, or so I thought….
Today they brag, but tomorrow they will be bitching about property taxes going up.
Places here on Capitol Hillhere seem to be selling - much to my surprise. But enough places are not and sit, sit, sit, with no price reduction. This is the case elsewhere in the city. The same house / condo for sale for six months, no reduction in asking price. But lots more inventory coming on-line.
Could someone explain this to me? There is a house in the neighborhood where i rent (Kansas City suburb). Most homes go for about 95-110 sq foot. There is a very small house in the neighborhood. 1380sq ft, 3br 2ba, very small finished basement (300). It was foreclosed on. Owner moved out, on the market multiple times. Switches to back-up then goes back on the market. Started with the first realtor, then a different second and now the third realtor is the one who was first. This week it went to a FSBO sign. It is the 1st (and 3rd) realtor. The realtor was trying to sell the house for the owner at the beginning. It seems as if the house was strung out to the spring season to fetch a better price. Whats going on here? 15473 S Widmer St Olathe, KS ANYONE?
price history 195 > 191 > 185 back up > on market 199 > 195 > backup > 195 > FSBO price unknown
Been dealing with this,no pets, etc. But will take sec. 8. Won’t lower their prices. Houses languish at $1399 or more.
Not here in Arizona. I’ve come to see the ‘Pets Welcome’ ad as a sign a market is turning. Not just welcome, but often in brand new houses!
I spoke with a friend today who lives in the east bay area. She went by to visit the realtor who sold her a condo last summer. When she asked this realtor how business was going, he told here there was nothing good on the market, that’s why no one is buying right now!!
I guess the sub-primers blowing up don’t have anything to do with the bay area housing market slowing down. Then again, since he sold her a condo last summer, he doesnt want to say that properties are losing value.
My husband and I are moving back to the bay area. I have been running into the same problems, “no pets” for all houses and apts. Our cat is well-mannered who sleeps a lot and doesnt climb up cabinets or curtains. Very discouraging to say the least.
When we lived in Alameda, there were quite a few houses to rent, now there is nothing available except outdated apartment buildings or small victorian studios. It’s going to be a challenge.
I ignored the “no pets” phrase and offered a $1K pet deposit. Every landlord but one said OK after that. I had 4 dogs too — 2 beagle mixes and 2 German shepherds. As I explained to the landlords though, the two beagles mixes were small and therefore only counted as 1 dog, the black GSD had degenerative myelopathy and couldn’t walk, so he didn’t really count at all, and the other GSD was 15 yrs old so she was really only 1/2 of dog. So my canine menagerie was only 1 1/2 dogs, all trained and well-behaved. It helped to get them laughing! I also 2 cats and 9 birds but I didn’t mention those. The dogs is what they were worried about. I also made sure the landlord knew I was a former home owner and I was ready to show photos of the inside of my previous house. Only one landlord decided not to rent to me so I had my pick of houses (I ended up renting a duplex with a very large yard, although I had to fence it myself). My landlord has been over many times and has no complaints about my pets. He has another duplex where the couple smoke like chimneys — he does complain about them though.
My 120 lb dog, who is protective of me, is quite an obstacle when looking for a rental.
I’ll throw out an example from the San Fernando Valley. I’m renting in an ‘upscale’ new development of 87 townhouses. Sales have been ongoing since mid ‘05, and they have sold 37 units. There are 7 units left for sale in the current phase. Meanwhile, they’ve been working on finishing all the units for the last two phases of 43 units.
After finally facing reality in the current environment, the developer has just thrown in the towel and given up on trying to sell those 43 townhouses. Even the enormous buy-down credits they were offering with the loans didn’t do the trick. They’ve decided to rent them out “for the time being”.
You can imagine the reaction of the existing owners, who suddenly discovered that they’ve bought into an overpriced complex that will soon have a majority of renters!
What’s interesting to me is how they’re going to sell the last 7 units in the existing phase. If they disclose the plans to rent out the other half of the property, you’d think that anyone with half a brain with go running. On the other hand, if they don’t disclose, then you’d have to believe that they’re courting lawsuits from one or more of the 7 suckers…..I mean, buyers.
What area?
Funny…they’re not buying condos, they’re taking on huge debt for the opportunity to live in an apartment building (and probably paying way more than the renters). In the SFV, that could mean some pretty gritty neighbors.
I know a 30-something couple who moved up here to Montana last year from Arizona, looking like they had it going on. They came here to a 3 story custom log house on some acreage (at least 600k here), brand new car/SUV, they even acquired a few high dollar horses to round out their Montana dream life. Just the type we LOVE here! They were of course bragging about the 2 houses they had on the market down in AZ and how much they were going to clear when they sold. They really put on a good show, I have to hand it to them.
Fast forward to today and this same couple is now renting a rinky-dink place in town, their new cars are both plastered with FOR SALE on the sides and are lamenting that they have to go back to AZ next month. I found out their log home was a rental too, and their houses in AZ are both headed into foreclosure. Their only hope is to go back and live in one. They are bitter, to say the least.
And here is the kicker…who do they blame for their situation?
The media, of course!!
Those are the sort of folks that pushed me to get the heck out of Bozeman. Great story! What part of Montana is this?
I’m near Billings, which is a hole compared to Bozeman. I am genuinely not a mean person, but it’s idiots like that who pushed prices here up to ungodly levels so I am glad to see them fall flat on their faces.
Undoubtedly they’ll go back to AZ with some bs story about how they left MT because of the weather.. or better yet, because the mean ol’ natives up here were all a bunch of backwards hicks and they just needed to be back in ‘civilization’ again.
“A River Runs Through It” was a great movie, but I wish it had never been made. Robert Redford and Ted Turner brought thousands of complete Yahoos into Montana, and ruined what might have been the last great place in the lower 48.
When I was leaving Bozeman for Pullman, the yahoo refugees all chided me for leaving the best place on earth… but the long time Bozeman residents all wistfully said the same thing: Pullman sounds like the kind of town Bozeman used to be.
I agree. Montana used to be the last best place, but those days are long gone. It feels different now, people have an attitude about being here, both natives and transplants, as if we are something so special that to say otherwise borders on blaspheme. We really aren’t, there are places in CA, OR, ID, WA and even WY that I’ve been to that I think are 10 times prettier than the prettiest areas of MT.
What gets me is down here around Billings - what the heck is it about this area that draws these “Montana dream” people here? There are no jobs to speak of, the scenery is pretty scrubby and looks nothing like “A River Runs Through It”, and statistically you have a better chance of getting killed by a drunk driver here than anywhere in the entire nation. Sure, housing is (was) cheap comparatively, but even so…it’s not exactly a piece of Montana heaven!
Yet they keep on coming, all wide-eyed and full of hope…
“…there are places in CA, OR, ID, WA and even WY that I’ve been to that I think are 10 times prettier than the prettiest areas of MT.”
Dead on. There are a lot of pretty places in Montana, Red Lodge Area, Glacier, upper Gallatin come to mind. But nothing really stunning outside of Glacier.
What made Montana the last great place was that you had nice scenery and okay skiing–but didn’t have to deal with the attitude and crowds of Colorado, CA, OR, etc… And now you do. (Okay still not as bad as those places, but certainly heading in that direction.)
We have been thinking of moving to Montana for about a year now. Both me and my husbands parents came from Butte and Shelby areas, and still have plenty of family all over the state. I was absolutely shocked at the prices in places like billings and especially Missoula, I know if we moved our pay would be drastically cut and still would not be able to afford a home. I hope this corrects across the board in all states, it is kinda a slap in the face to feel priced out of Billings.
BTW I have never been through a Montana winter even though I have heard plenty about them. Do you think most transplants bail after a couple -15 winters?
Actually the winters in western Montana (Bozeman to the state line) are much easier than the midwestern winters (Illinois and Wisconsin) I’ve experienced. Not much wind in the mountains and drier air doesn’t feel as cold. The winters are LONG however, and everyone starts to go a bit crazy with the cold rains and even snows into June.
Weather aside, most transplants leave because the pay in Montana is probably as low or lower than any state in the country. If you can land a federal job, great, otherwise high school teachers make low 20’s, professors 40-60k (for a full professor), state employees generally are very poorly paid, and the only other jobs are connected to tourism–hourly plus tips. Unemployment is relatively low, but underemployment is fantastically high.
The one exception: over the past 4-5 years at lot of folks have been making good money in construction, mortgage banking and real estate transactions.
Can you say “nasty feedback” on the way down!
Winter isn’t as bad here as people think, but if you are from a warm climate it is bad enough to make you not want to stay all year. The majority of the deep-pockets who own here are snowbirds so it doesn’t matter to them.
There are a lot of people who come intending to be permanent residents and leave after a year or two, but I think it has less to do with the winters and more to do with the low wages and lack of decent jobs.
We came back over here after a few years away, my husband works for a company based in Seattle, and makes Seattle wages (90k a year) which is more than double what the median household income is here. Even though we have roots here and a lot of family in the area, we still refuse to pay these overinflated prices for housing and will probably settle somewhere else when we do buy. We’re looking at Idaho Falls as a possibility right now.
“Weather aside, most transplants leave because the pay in Montana is probably as low or lower than any state in the country.”
During one of my “I’ve got to get the hell out of Washington” moments, I considered a move to Montana. That is, until I saw the wages. I laughed out loud and quickly came to my senses. That place is horribly overpriced given local economic conditions. I assume average wage earners are completely priced out by equity locusts and the like.
Montana sucks. Tell your friends.
Sigh. I was offered a job in Bozeman in 1990- was told that the pay was not that competitive but the inexpensive housing made up for it. I was given a tour around town, and I remember one duplex for sale at $32k (!). I later heard that soon afterward the inexpensive housing was no more (starting with the Hollywood/Ted Turner immigrants)… Too bad.
…I remember one duplex for sale at $32k (!)…
Now add a 0 to the end of that 32 and that’s about what it’s “worth”.
“…inexpensive housing was no more (starting with the Hollywood/Ted Turner immigrants)…”
I read somewhere that a lot of the Hollywood types who bought thousand acre properties in area like Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado because it was the thing to do, are trying to sell them. Ricky Shroeder comes to mind. The article talked about how the properties were a huge cash drain because they basically needed an entire crew to maintain them. The novelty wore off quite quickly for many.
Now they tell potential hires that the low, uncompetive pay is compensated for by the high quality of life (everyone wants to live here).
Yeh, great quality of life living in a modular home out in Belgrade or trying to keep your shack from blowing away in Livingston.
I had occasion to visit Ted Turner’s place in South Dakota.
I think I would offer Ted et.al. $2000 / month to “manage” the place for him. Why should he pay someone to do that job when I am willing to PAY HIM for the privilege. I mean, how could he do any better than finding someone willing to treat the place like it was my own?
Big hat, no cattle.
Yes, Ted only has buffalo!
Flash from Orlando- Free rent signs are popping up all over town for apartment dwellers. It seems that the conversion mania back to rentals has come full circle and add in the $500,000 homes for rent for $1,000 a month.
Does “Free Rent” mean 1 month, or does it mean more than 1 month?
DC properties prices are down slightly from what I see. The rental market is tough with unsold condos being rented plus the property taxes , insurance and utilities rates continue to rise . The housing market for the small investor makes zero sense at this time . DC government has raised my assessment to 1 million on a three unit bldg. on Capitol Hill. My basement unit rent goes strictly to taxes and insurance. Enough whining for now.
I’m in Palo Alto, CA this week. Saw a for sale sign that had “price reduced” above it. I don’t think I have ever seen that here before. House is near Middlefield down from Palo Alto High School.
I’m surprised there isn’t a zoning regulation preventing the display of “price reduced” in Shallow Alto.
Went to Fry’s electronics today. Parking lot astoundingly empty. The least number of cars I’ve seen in this parking lot in the 2 years I’ve lived in Las Vegas.
San Bernardino Costco was very uncrowded today. So what the Home Depot. What gives? Everyone finally run out of money?
San Bernardino Costco was very uncrowded today. So was the Home Depot. What gives? Everyone finally run out of money?
Our Home Depot is full of crickets chirping too, but Costco has been packed every day. I figure people are stocking up for the coming financial armageddon here…
Any insights into what’s going on in the Northen CA Bay Area, specifically south bay?
On my drive to the local lake, I used to see 4 for sale signs.
Today, it’s 11.
Manhattan: live close to 4 realties, have the same houses at display since a year ago, with 10% reduction in prices, but they are old apartments, and cannot compete with new developments.
lots of luxury inventory and projects that include some subsidized apartments are coming (those are just for lower income). a couple of these projects only sold 40% of market rate apartments by February.
Around November 2006, they were expecting to have all market rates sold by Feb (in fact, they had a lease of the temporary sales office due on Feb, obviously, they had to extend the lease).
That gives me the idea that the data showing price increases in Manhattan is misleading, as they don’t follow Shiller style measurements of same-house pricing. They are not comparing apples to apples, hence, overall you see price increases just cause the mix of houses traded changed.
I’m seeing discounts at the realties since Oct 2006 on, and slightly cheaper 1 bd and 2 bd rentals. Whether significant price drops happen during 2007/8 will depend on amount of people able to refinance ARMs and investor’s attitude. It seems that even within the rest of US there is the believe that Manhattan can hold prices… wishfull thinking.
Was interesting to see that someone paid $110 Million for 1276 acres of land outside of Fountain Hills in Arizona this past week and plan to put 1000 houses on it.
North County San Diego:
Did an “open house” run today. In each of the homes we saw, other buyers/lookers were there. In one house, it got downright crowded.
One realtor said the house was pending, but he was taking back-up offers. Supposedly, the offer was around $725K, when another (same floorplan) house down the street recently went into escrow at ~$635K. That would make three houses in escrow on this rather short street in just the last month or so.
Otherwise, the same old, old listings still sit. Very few new listings coming on in the better, established areas I watch. Most of the new listings have gone pending within a month. These run in the $600-$1M range.
In the lower-end areas, I’m seeing a good deal of REO action and prices have been steadily coming down since spring/summer of ‘06.
We desperately need the “subprime implosion” to do its thing. Sellers still delusional, and I think the future REOs are just sitting, enjoying the free rent until the lenders take their homes away.
Rentals move **fast** and rental rates seem fairly steady this past 6-12 months, after a rapid & steep rise in the 2004-2006 period.
LA County sales numbers for February are out in today’s LATimes. The list is not posted on the Dataquick site yet, but there is other good stuff there about February results:
http://www.dqnews.com/
Meanwhile (from the paper), Santa Monica sales were down again. In all five zip codes (90401 - 90405) there were a total of 16 homes and 24 condos sold in February. Once again, the median numbers are meaningless due to the small sample size. But the prices of SFHs are now well below $1000/sq ft on average, which might indicate the beginning of a return to sanity. Still, hard to tell with such a small sample.
Open house signs all over the place today in S&M. I counted eight at the corner of 11th and Montana. This town is starting to look like one of those pictures in Ben’s photo gallery, but with lots of automobile traffic
LA Times has yet another article in the RE section touting the continued rise in home prices. Just wrote the reporter to tell her she fogot to put in the “paid advertisement” announcement above the article.
You’ll notice that even in this puff piece, Diane Wedner hedges a bit. I loved the quote from LAY - in the piece, she says:
“The year 2006 was a steep learning curve for buyers and sellers, but we didn’t plunge into the abyss,” Appleton-Young said. “Buyers who were on the sideline in 2006 are back in.”
“Back in what?”, I might ask.
The Sunday LA Times RE section seems to be at odds with the writings in the Business section and front page where they talk about the worries in the underwriting (CDO article) and the culture at NEW. Nothing like seeing a paper develop MPD so early in the selling season…
http://tinyurl.com/ywrm33
Villages strain to retain residents
While population rises across Central New York, it falls in region’s villages.
Syracuse Post Std.
Sunday, March 18, 2007
By John Doherty Staff writer
Blame it on vanishing industry or deteriorating housingstock or higher property taxes, but fewer people are calling Central New York villages their home today than did 31/2 decades ago.
The population of villages in Cayuga, Madison, Onondaga and Oswego counties dropped about 7 percent since 1970, numbers compiled by the state and federal agencies show. During the same time Central New York’s overall population increased by about 3 percent.
Those statistics, from government Web sites, reveal 32 of the region’s 44 villages have fewer people than a generation ago.
Vancouver area inventory is exploding. Prices are softening substantially.
Lake Norman is mentioned in the NC article. What an awful place. It is a man-made lake north of Charlotte created for a nucler power plant. The lake is surrounded with McMansions on tiny plots and the key status symbol is your boat. The most extreme headcases have what appear to be offshore racing boats (on this crowded lake!). I was there on a weekend and it was a cacophony of power boats zipping around. And on the horizon you see the nuclear power plant.
A truly bizarre place that exemplifies bad taste. I was told that it is popular with wealthy people from the “Nascar industry”.
Here in Naples we are probably down 15-20%. A lot on a lake near the beach was purchased for $1.8 million and recently sold for $1.1 million (off 40%). Our October auction was a bust coming in on average at 55% of the zillow.com stated values.
There are properties that were purchased for one price in 2006 and the idiot flippers have them marked up 40% above Zillow quote for sale. One of the phenomena we saw in the boom and even now is an attempt by the flippers to control all the inventory so that people that just want a home are forced to pay up. Now little is selling except at big discounts.
Imagaine a town in which auctions show every property bid at 55% of the zillow.com quoted value yet some flippers are trying too get 140% of the zillow.com value on other properties. Insane.
The only way to beat these flipper bast..ds is rent and let them twist in the wind. I expect many of these disgusting clowns to go bk.
By the way, the current reset for toxic loans is running at 20 billion dollars a month presently. Look at the damage it is doing. The level will rise to 50 billion per month in May. This will last for 18 months after May 2007. There is a secondary peak for the toxics in 2010-11 averaging 35 billion resets a month. Based on this information it should take until 2011-2012 to complete this bust.
Patients you buyer wannabees.
I have to share this story. We went out to look at properties and a realtor who has an old Rolls Royce saw us at an open house. We had never met the old lady before. We made the mistake of telling her we would buy sometime in the future. She followed us around Port Rolyal in her RR and when I pulled over she pitched us again about using her and wanted us to follow her to another of her listings. Ugh.
Nobody talks about Texas much anymore (can’t imagine why, lol) but across the street from me in Dallas is a house that was listed on 12/20 for 305K. After a month on the market it was reduced to 285K. There have been open houses ever Sunday for the past 12 weeks and not one offer. This a nice house, nice neighborhood, big lot, 2300 square feet about 3 miles from downtown. At 285K it’s overpriced by about 30-40K.
And I found this little quote from one of Big D’s most high profile realwhores. This broad sells 100M plus of residential property every year and has for a long time. I’m sure she’s wealthier than God but I’d hate to see this quote attributed to me in the April ‘07 issue of D Rag:
“”Sheets agrees with the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and other informed media that what many have called a housing slump is over and that 2007 is the year to buy a home.”
I just laugh.
Friday evening we went to Ontario for a business transaction. Afterwards we drove through Riverside, Beaumont, Banning, Perris and eventually to Morongo for their buffet. There were lots of poor and homeless people. Tons of building and what amazed me were homes built right next to cow ranches. Geesh, the stench in the summer must be *()_&^%. The smog was so bad you can’t see the mountains… visibility sucked. Trashy homes amongst the new ones. When I say trashy, I mean homes that look like they could fall over with their yard being used as a dump. The manager’s son (from Ontario) works in the OC. She said it took him 4 hours to get home!!!
After our buffet (which was good) prime rib and lots of other goodies for 9.99, I went to the slots to play a little. There were 100 dollar slot machines in this special area. There was one woman playing and in the few minutes I was watching she had lost 2000 duckies… No return on her money!!!! Then when you start walking around to some of the penny and nickel slots, you can see the look of desperation of some of these people trying to get rich. I play never expecting to win but because it’s fun and I don’t lose much. I played for hours and lost 80 bucks.
Anyway, I don’t care for the area at all. I would not live there. I want to go outside and see a blue sky, not brown.
went to an open house three doors down from my rowhouse in a desirable nyc borough ‘hood. i’m renting for 2300 + heat and my rental is in stellar condition. the house on sale, an exact replica of our floorplan, is in bad shape. the floors need to be redone, there’s no balcony as on ours, the tiles in the kitchen and baths are all moldy. i’d say there’s about 100k worth of work. it’s a moderate-sized single family. they’re selling it as a “possible two-family” for 789k. if you put 20% down, that’s a monthly mortgage payment of 3850 (if you can get 6.25% interest).
what for?
Inventoyr, per Zip Realty:
TAMPA
01/21/07 59,865
01/27/07 60,665
02/03/07 60,627
02/10/07 61,771
02/17/07 62,274
02/24/07 62,658
03/03/07 62,383
03/09/07 62,923
03/18/07 63,271
MIAMI/FTL
01/21/07 103,131
01/27/07 104,442
02/03/07 106,008
02/10/07 107,150
02/17/07 108,591
02/24/07 109,638
03/03/07 106,916
03/09/07 104,095
03/18/07 109,050
ORLANDO
01/21/07 32,341
01/27/07 33,030
02/03/07 33,123
02/10/07 33,702
02/17/07 34,093
02/24/07 34,398
03/03/07 34,365
03/09/07 35,108
03/18/07 35,540
PHILA
01/21/07 32,698
01/27/07 32,494
02/03/07 32,216
02/10/07 32,474
02/17/07 32,611
02/24/07 32,552
03/03/07 32,445
03/09/07 32,852
03/18/07 33,365
ATLANTA
01/21/07 57,620
01/27/07 59,127
02/03/07 58,956
02/10/07 60,456
02/17/07 60,844
02/24/07 61,895
03/03/07 61,947
03/09/07 63,762
03/18/07 64,553
BOSTON
01/21/07 42,170
01/27/07 44,434
02/03/07 42,292
02/10/07 42,818
02/17/07 42,828
02/24/07 42,870
03/03/07 43,149
03/09/07 43,806
03/18/07 44,568
BALT.
01/21/07 46,025
01/27/07 46,178
02/03/07 45,225
02/10/07 45,835
02/17/07 45,708
02/24/07 45,877
03/03/07 45,777
03/09/07 47,068
03/18/07 48,277
February Dataquack numbers are out for SD. There are some eyepopping negative YOY changes in there (e.g. -34.1% change in median resale LaJolla condo prices, -50% drop in median resale Coronado SFR prices, etc.).
http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPSDUT.shtm
SD ziprealty inventory is poised to top 16,000 this week (roughly increasing at a 100 home / week rate since the beginning of 2007)…
Assuming Ziprealty data uses city limit parameters, it appears approximately 4.2% of Scottsdale SFHs are for sale and 2.9% of Chandler SFHs are on the market. City of Chandler shows SFH stock of 70,319 (92,525 total x .76 sf) and 2,026 SF listings per zip. City of Scottsdale shows 80,510 SFH stock and 3,414 SF listings per zip….its hard to believe Yuppieville (Scottsdale) is that much worse off the Wannabeyuppieville (Chandler).