“We Continue To Head In The Right Direction”
The Boston Globe reports from Massachusetts. “The Massachusetts housing market showed signs of bumping along the bottom of a year long slump as it heads into the crucial spring season. Prices for single-family homes sold in February declined between 4 percent and 5 percent from February 2006, according to two different reports released yesterday by real estate interests.”
“Conditions favored buyers. ‘People are looking for good deals,’ said Ken Maddeford, an agent in Chelsea. Maddeford, who has worked in Chelsea real estate for 28 years, including during the early-1990s real estate bust, said he believes the state’s housing market won’t bounce back quickly from the slump because too many sellers are refusing to drop their prices.”
“‘It’s going to take time to correct,’ he said, because ‘the numbers just don’t make sense right now.’”
“Currently, there are 45,193 single-family homes and condos on the market in Massachusetts, a year’s worth of inventory. Another wild card: Increasingly both borrowers and lenders in the subprime mortgage market are in financial trouble. Foreclosures in the state are increasing rapidly, while some lenders are also experiencing financial hardship or capital problems.”
“A record 15,000 Massachusetts homeowners received foreclosure notices from lenders last year. In the final quarter of 2006, 4 percent of Massachusetts borrowers with subprime loans had received foreclosure notices from their lenders, compared with less than 1.5 percent of borrowers of all other types of loans.”
“‘If a couple of these private lenders go down, it’s a damper on the whole economy,’ said Alan Pasnik, a real estate analyst for Warren Group. ‘People get nervous about the whole banking system,’ he said.”
The Boston Herald. “The market is readjusting and sellers are slowly starting to lower prices as buyers push for discounts, said Wellesley College economist and nationally respected housing expert Chip Case.”
“But Case believes the market still has more settling to do, enough so that it may be next spring before the market finally stabilizes. ‘The market is headed towards stabilization,’ Case noted. ‘I think it will take a year before we get a real sense of where it will end up.’”
“At the current sales pace this represents approximately 12.3 months of supply. On a month-to-month basis, the average months of supply went up from 10.7 months of supply in January 2007. Residential properties stayed on the market an average of 148 days in February 2007 compared to an average of 115 days in February 2006.”
“‘While February sales gains compared to the same time last year were more modest than those we reported for January, we continue to head in the right direction,’ said MAR President Doug Azarian.”
“Timothy Warren Jr., CEO of the Warren Group, offered his perspective of the housing market in a statement. ‘Although the number of sales fell in February, the relatively low decrease shows more of a leveling out in the Massachusetts home market,’ he said. ‘Sales decreased by double-digit percentages during much of 2006, so a decrease of only 1.4 percent could be an indication of some stabilization in the market.’”
“‘But recent difficulties in the subprime mortgage market could spell trouble down the road. Mortgage lenders may react by tightening qualifications for mortgages, making it more difficult for some to buy homes. That means the Massachusetts housing market is probably not yet out of the woods,’ he said.”
The Hartford Courant from Connecticut. “Bushnell Tower has struggled during the past year through a sort of identity crisis. It faced what it has really never faced before: competition.”
“During the past year, housing options have exploded in the city, from the upscale townhouse condominiums at Goodwin Estates near Elizabeth Park to the downtown Metropolitan condos.”
“Bushnell Tower has not been unscathed. Demand for its high-end rentals, with monthly rents of $2,000 or more, have plummeted. Almost 60 of the building’s 176 units are rentals; the individual owners have had to work harder to find tenants and, in some cases, have updated the units or reduced rents, local real estate agents said.”
“‘The rental market here is pretty much dead,’ said Becky Koladis, an agent who handles rentals and sales in the building. ‘Just recently, I lost a rental to Hartford 21. It’s very hard to compete with brand-new.’”
“A one-bedroom unit that was listed for $190,000 in January, for instance, sold in one day for $180,000. And last month, a two-bedroom, two-bathroom unit that was listed for $299,900 sold in four days for $264,000.”
Bloomberg reports from Rhode Island. “Rolando Ruiz and Stephanie Rodrigues telephoned their mortgage lender two weeks ago and offered to hand over the keys to their three-bedroom house in Providence, Rhode Island. They lost their jobs and haven’t made a loan payment since January.”
“‘I told the bank to come get the keys and just let me know when we need to be out, but they said why not put it up for sale and we might be able to work something out,’ said Rodrigues, the 22-year-old mother of two girls.”
“Homeowners such as the Rhode Island couple are finding their mortgage companies eager to accept a sale price that falls short of a property’s loan balance, a so-called mortgage short sale. The number of U.S. loans entering foreclosure reached an all-time high in the fourth quarter, according to the Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association.”
“‘Banks don’t want to be real estate managers,’ said Doug Duncan, chief economist of the mortgage association. ‘The fact that delinquencies are rising means we’re going to see more pre- foreclosure sales.’”
“Almost 5 percent of U.S. mortgages had payments overdue by 30 days or more at the end of last year, the highest since 2003, Duncan said. No one tracks or estimates the number of borrowers who avoid foreclosure with a short sale, according to Duncan and David Berson, chief economist of Washington-based Fannie Mae, the largest buyer of mortgages. There’s ample evidence that the number is increasing, they said.”
“‘Clearly it’s happening and the numbers are rising,’ Berson said. ‘What we need to know to be concerned is how it compares to the last cycle, but no one tracks that.’”
“Ruiz and Rodrigues paid $195,000 a year ago for an eight-room house and spent about $12,000 renovating it. They found they couldn’t recoup the money they put into the property because real estate values in Providence had fallen. The city’s median selling price declined 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter to $291,300 from $294,400 a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors.”
“‘If the market had kept rising, we would have been fine because we could have easily sold for a profit when we lost our jobs,’ said Rodrigues. ‘Now, we’re in a jam.’”
Was reading a story this morning about a guy here in gilbert az who cannot sell his 2nd house because the new home builders are undercutting him on price.He said he cannot go lower because he would lose money.He has now rented the house out at a loss of course.Of course he won’t admit he overpaid.I think this is a big theme here in arizona.The home builders are just being realistic and adjusting to current market conditions while lots of existing homes are lingering on the market forever.
I don’t understand this logic. “Can’t sell because it’ll be at a loss so I’ll just rent at a loss instead.”
I would argue that many can’t afford to take the big hit at time of closing, so they slowly drain their funds over a longer period. Either way, the end result is going to be the same.
If you sell at a loss, you have to make up the shortfall out of past savings. If you rent at a loss, you make up the shortfall out of current and future earnings. Of course, if the time comes and you have no current or future earnings, you are hosed.
Its because they can afford the monthly loss but not the lump sum loss. They also think that housing will turn around in a few month and they will be alright. This thinking is what is going to be a big factor in killing the economy. As more arms reset and more people can’t sell the money that would have been spent on TV’s and Hummers is now going to mortgage payments and covering rental losses. Most people only have a limited income each month, even if they can afford to pay extra for their mortgage they will have less to spend on other things.
My thinking is that renting at a loss is worse if he decides to sell in the next few years anyway. Not only will he lose monthly becuase of renting, but chances are he will sell for even less than he can sell for today because the market is tanking.
We know that, but the FB’s don’t want to believe it yet. The FB’s are hoping that some one will invent bilge pump big enough to rescue their sinking ship.
The FBs are like a bald guy that won’t throw away his hair dryer. Hope springs eternal.
Rofl! great analogy
Hey as a balding guy I resent that! (NOT!) That’s FUNNY.
“As more arms reset and more people can’t sell the money that would have been spent on TV’s and Hummers is now going to mortgage payments and covering rental losses.”
The essence of malinvestment.
teevee = made in china
suv = sucks up saudi oil
All told, I’m not certain it’s all that bad if we spent less on this kind of stuff. I realize china is economically and functionally a part of the US, like a giant mississippi that makes stuff, but opec is overdue for a good screwing and with our blububbublubble we’re screwed ourselves anyway.
Ah, the pitfalls of the consumer society. Was anyone on this blog really ever sold on that idea? Don’t you also resent it that our government’s preferred label for us in their reports is “consumer”.
It is so much easier for the right wing power elite when they have consumers instead of citizens.
You underestimate the illusory power of Hope. Clowns like Mr. “I’ll Rent At a Loss Until the Market Comes Back” will cling to their delusions beyond all logical limits, rather that admit defeat. Until, of course, it’s way too late.
“I will go down with my ship.
I won’t put my hands up and surrender.”
There will be no white flag above my door,
I’m in love and always will be.”
(Dido)
My landlord is even stupider. He could, just barely, sell and break even but instead, he’s insisting on a profit and in the meantime, renting to us at a $1,500/month loss while he waits for the market to “come back”.
Ditto here. My prospective landlord is in the same boat, only he’s mad at me (the prospective tenant) because he has to rent his home and is not able to sell it! Oh well - his pain is my gain…
Hey Ben, sounds like you guys down in the Phoenix area have more inventory than the entire State of Massachusetts. Now there’s something to hang your hat on.
Hey Ex Broker,
Off topic, but any idea what happens if I ignore requests from my lender for documentation AFTER closing? We’re talking months after.
That’s interesting! What’s he asking for? What kind of loan did you get? Wonder if they’re trying to paper their files retroactively because they’re worried about liability.
P.S. I’d tell them to pound sand btw. Not your problem.
We did “No Doc” Alt-A loan with 20% down. Cost us about .5% but well worth it since my wife had only been employed with her current employer 6 months and backtracking was going to be difficult.
On a side note, I think they’re just trying to make the loan more saleable.
OK, I guess my reply post got lost in the bloggers black hole. You’re lender, who is more than likely a wholesaler, can’t get an investor to suck this baby up, or, perhaps they did sell it, something was missed and eventually caught in QC, and now they want them to get the needed documentation or buy the note back. Either way you got ‘em by the balls. So here’s what I suggest - make a list. Think of your favorite place to eat, tickets to your favorite pastime, and how ’bout throwing a couple of $50 Starbucks cards. Trust me, if it comes down to buying back or holding a note that’ll cost them thousands of dollars, your wish list will be no problem. Now who’s bending who over?…..enjoy it while it lasts.
Ahhhhhhh!! I don’t know what is happening to my replies. This is my last attempt. Your original lender, the wholesaler, is either stuck holding the note ’cause they can’t sell it, or they did miss something and the investor caught it and is asking for it, and if they don’t get it, force them to buy the note back. So here’s the deal - it’s your turn to do the bending over, you’ve gone from bendee to bender. Make a list that includes your favorite place to eat, tickets to your favorite pastime, and a couple of $50 Starbucks cards. If it comes down to making you happy or paying somewhere in the neighborhood of 10K plus to eat or buy back the note, they’ll choose making you happy. The tables have turned, my friend. Enjoy it while it lasts.
Now it showed! Now I’ve updated with more information. This was clearly a No doc loan rather than a low doc loan. They want 36 months of housing history. Another lender friend of mine says that’s the beginning of what’s to come. If we provide that, they’ll want 2 years of employment. Once that’s provided all the benefit of the No Doc loan and the extra .5% we’re bending over is gone…except we must still comply with the added .5%!
Heh. What are they gonna do if you ignore them, foreclose? As you keep paying every month as contractually agreed? That’s a good one.
Sounds to me like your LO missed something, which in turn slipped by underwriting and QC. Now they’re stuck holding your note and they can’t off-load it to their investor, or the investor has got it and their QC department has caught it and is now threatening to make ‘em buy it back if the documentation isn’t provided. Either way, you’ve definately got their balls in a vice. Suddenly you’re in the drivers seat. The quesion is how much fun do you want to have with these guys? Oh, and where is your favorite place to eat? Trust me, if comes down to them buying you a nice dinner and tickets to your favorite pastime, or buying back a note for thousands of dollars, the choice is easy. Or, if you’re a sadistic type, you could just kick back and watch ‘em squirm.
Now that all my replies have finally posted, I’m left standing here looking like a redundant A-hole.
actually, no.
It’s kind of fun reading posts about how a lendee has a lender by the balls - even if it’s over and over and over… :-)!
I just posted a reply, but it’s not showing yet. i don’t think I used any profanity…hmmmm. I’ll wait a little and see what happens.
A week after closing, my original lender could not sell my loan to investors because she could not find or lost one important page of the Promisery Note. At first, I thought “Great. I got a free house”. But she sounded too nice with a begging tone of voice. I gave in and signed the missing page and faxed it back to her.
According to report this morning Phoenix inventory at @ 49,000 homes.
“Conditions favored buyers. ‘People are looking for good deals,’ said Ken Maddeford, an agent in Chelsea. Maddeford, who has worked in Chelsea real estate for 28 years, including during the early-1990s real estate bust, said he believes the state’s housing market won’t bounce back quickly from the slump because too many sellers are refusing to drop their prices. ‘It’s going to take time to correct,’ he said, because ‘the numbers just don’t make sense right now.’”
Conditions favor buyers who are willing to wait until prices stop falling. Eager beavers get to catch a falling knife.
Well, just look who lives in chelsea… I certainly would NOT want to get caught living there. It is not a prime location in MA, if you know what I mean…
Conditions favor buyers who are willing to wait until prices stop falling. Eager beavers get to catch a falling knife.
It’s somewhat like those people who always have to be the first to buy the latest and greatest technological marvel. They pay a premium to be the first on their street with the latest toy. The smart people who have a little self-control get to buy the same product at a fraction of the cost by waiting a year or two. The early adopter then moves on to the next generation to stay ahead.
It’s all symptomatic of our “Have it all, have it now” culture. Sickening.
I look on them as life’s Beta testers.
(So, how’s Vista workin’ for ya there?…)
Beta testers usually get breaks or incentives (e.g. free trial during beta-testing period). Early adopters pay through the nose for the privilege of working though the bugs. They must be masochists.
Unless they’re Microsoft’s beta-testers. Those are called end users.
“Homeowners such as the Rhode Island couple are finding their mortgage companies eager to accept a sale price that falls short of a property’s loan balance, a so-called mortgage short sale.”
Here’s a potential opportunity for a government handout for FB borrowers- a tax forgiveness of the short sale “income” shown on the 1099. In many cases the IRS would have trouble getting blood from a stone anyway.
Senator Dodd, call your office.
I remember I had a friend years ago who had a accountant who messed up his taxes . He payed for years to the IRS in the form of payments and paid his debt . The IRS didn’t give my friend any breaks .By the way ,my friends accountant took off with his wife and he was left with the 3 kids to raise from a young age .
So why should speculators in real estate get a break from the IRS ?People should think twice before they run up debt and than expect no penalty .The IRS has never let me slide on what I owed them in all the years I have been paying taxes . I have had years where I had to pay 60 to 70k in taxes and that doesn’t include property taxes paid also .
I say if the lenders want to extend a helping hand to the FB’s in order to avoid loss than thats their choice ,but why should the public pay for the mistakes concerning a contract between a lender and a borrower ?
I am 100% with you on this one…every time I hear rumblings about a bailout, break, leniency or other ’stop loss’ possibility I literally feel my blood pressure jump. Not on my watch will we privatize profits and socialize losses (somebody put that earlier on this blog and I love it) as I did the proper research, had fights with the wife and was labeled a local lunatic.
See - you just did it again. If I wasn’t also feeling so friggin old I’d need to go do some deadlifts to blow off steam. Instead I’ll just go have some strained peas.
LOL.
Not on my watch will we privatize profits and socialize losses.
This is the main reason why we hear time and again the tired canard that pure capitalism doesn’t work. If you don’t allow people to learn from their mistakes and malinvestment of capital resources, people don’t learn to be wary with their wealth. Government regulation is no substitute for experience and lessons learned the hard way.
Right on, the “free” market all the blowhards in the MSM and gov’t harp about is nonsense indeed. Only when it works for them are free market devices allowed to function properly. Has there ever been a greater example of pure and utter hypocrisy?
yup it is the Liberpublican way.
Forgiving the 1099 would not be a cost to society, just a loss of revenue. The house prices were wildly inflated.
Yes, let’s just look the other way and forgive the debt. These useful idiots will then reenter the game and start things rolling all over again. You want to be a do-gooder then let’s put some strings on the deal like they are locked out of purchasing a home for 5 years.
Forgiving the 1099 is a bailout. All bailouts are wrong !!! Forgiving the 1099 is a future lesson for Adam Smith’s invisible hand that will needlessly inflate prices of homes further for those honest people who dont need to worry about the ill effects of an upside down short sale and a 1099.
My humble argument would be that it is a HUGE cost to society.
NO forgiveness on the 1099. NO hold up on foreclosures. NO bailouts whatsoever. Period. End of report.
The punters took the risks. The Wall Street banks gave them the matches to play with. Now they are all burned and that is just they way the capitalist cookie crumbles.
It isnt the end of the world. They will just give the keys back and rent; like they should have done from the start. There is no Palestinian ‘playing the victim’ card allowed. They arent victims. There IS no sob story. I dont care if it is an ARM, Jumbo, or the 90 year old lady who refied. They took the money and wall street funded the loans on the carry trade which gave it to them. They werent crying victim when someone handed them $100,000 in cash from a HELOC.
It isnt the FEDs fault. The free market is finding its Darwinian way through the forest.
NO Bailout. NO vicitms. NO whinning. Period.
J
“NO Bailout. NO vicitms. NO whinning. Period.”
How about declaring victory in Iraq, and saving $100 billion over the next year? No Bailout. No victims. No Whinning. Period.
Different problem entirely.
NO way out. TOO many victims. NO winning…..period.
The problem in a “democracy” such as ours, is that once the people learn that they can vote themselves goodies from the cookie jar, they find it irresistable.
circus n bread
NO BAIL ! that includes ctit,wm, and the rest
You got that right! I’m in a death struggle with the IRS right now myself. They are tough to deal with and why should it be easier for anyone else?
What does FB stand for again? Been wanting to ask that for a while.
The second word is borrower. The first ends with “ed”
First-time Buyer.
Not exactly. First word rhymes with puck-ed.
(Written that way to avoid the profanity filter…)
starts with F, ends with UCK. (one additional hint. No. It isnt FiretrUCK.) when you have the word, but and ED on it for good measure. Then you have your filter friendly FiretrUCKED BUYER.
I had assumed it was first time buyer but that did not always make sense. Thanks for the clarification and for making me almost spill my coffee.
Your mom lets you drink coffee ? Wow, you’re lucky. My mom wont let me have coffee, or drinks near the computer. She says ill spill it and mess things up, like you nearly did. I tell her i wont. She doesnt believe me.
It kinda sucks cause i do really like have coffee with my morning cigarette while catching up on this blog.
My mom doesn’t but my boss doesn’t care…that I drink coffee. I imagine she would care that I am on this blog though? Oh well.
CNN Money has a poll up on their website asking if the current subprime mess is “just a bump in the road” or “will lead to a real estate market crash”…
So far as bubbleheads are outnumbered. People are still in denial. Anybody else care to cast a vote?
Wanna bet a bunch of realtors and “investors” are trying to skew the poll?
Nah, anecdotally my bubble comments are still earning me responses of “yeah, but I’m not paranoid like you are” and “yeah, but we’ve been doing this a long time and we know what we’re doing”
Back into the cave goes this bear….except I do repeat myself enough times so when things do turn they’ll remember who tried to give them a heads up.
I predict that at the end of the day, it is the invisible hand’s vote that will matter, for both the housing and the stock markets. And the invisible hand does seems assertively unhappy, despite, or perhaps due to, various high-level efforts to sever it.
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary/
Man, where was that invisible hand when I was a teenager? It would’ve have come in handy (no pun intended)
As as a teenager?
Bungled that one. Try again. “Only when you were a teenager?”
No, but that was when I was ashamed of my habit. Now I “flog-the-dog” openly.
Ha Ha. I just saw some movie on cable about nerdy computer game testers (I cannot think of the name), and there is scene dealing with this very thing that just cracked me up, as did everything that tied into it, and the related dialogue. I don’t think they could have made the movie ten years ago.
What are FB’s getting right now, an Invisible Hand Job?
Their squirms are the other kind.
Ask James Dean about that “bump in the road”.
I live a couple hours away from where J.D. ate it…
There’s a classy little shrine of sorts, in lonesome Choalme~
“Currently, there are 45,193 single-family homes and condos on the market in Massachusetts, a year’s worth of inventory
In my local, rural area the listings have gone up nearly 20% in the last 6 weeks. The spring inventory is just now beginning to roll in. I expect we will have an 18 month inventory by June.
that super bowl party didn’t work out
same as 06
I’m in Charlestown and am watching a few places within 2 blocks of my house. 2 blocks away a 3 unit flipper project was finished last fall and is still empty with for sale signs on the front. 2 doors away a unit went on the market in December. Next door, unit was listed from May - December 2006, then pulled from the market with no sale.
IMO Charlestown has more people who are going to need to get out than anywhere. When I visit friends there, the place is crawling with 30 somethings with one kid and one on the way and walking their dog. The majority I talk to would like to get out soon, before the other kid arrives.
Also, if you could comment, it seems like Charlestown has had an increase in stabbings and shootings over the last year….but maybe I just happen to pick up the globe on those days….
My opinion is that many of those families you refer to have moved from Back Bay, Beacon Hill, etc. and were able to buy a house or multi floor condo where they could have much more space for the same $. The attraction is that you could stay in the city and still have kids. I see many families pushing strollers and walking dogs. I haven’t spoken to any of them lately to gauge their desire to move out to suburbia soon. As for the crime, Charlestown is a mix of professionals, townies and of course there’s the “projects.” I live near City Square and have not witnessed any crime near me, although the local papers are full of stories of car break-ins on the back side of Monument Square. There will always be crime issues at the projects. My experience is that there hasn’t been a noticeable increase in crime on my side of town and it’s very safe. MY GF lives in Back Bay and they’ve had a big increase in car break-ins and assaults.
Here’s a link to a local realtor’s website. He’s got some stats on Boston neighborhoods, although my impression is that things are much slower than what his stats indicate. I don’t know this guy, but I found his website a year ago.
http://www.bostonrealtyweb.com/
massachusets is going to get hammered. It has a wonderfull ensure all program becoming active in july1 2007, which will basically allow the gov’t to garnish wages and asses tax liens on people whom do not have health ensurance to force them to get it in order to subsidize the uninsured. Simply wonderful program my guess is once it hits 500 or 600 a month even more people will leave the state. Imbecils think they are winning votes with the aged group are forgetting that if on margin they push out the productive population it will be harder and harder (higher and higher costs) on the rest of those whom pay to continue this ripoff.
small biz owners in MA - come to VA low tax no hassle !
NH will pick up some new residents too
wow, FREEer healthcare from a GOP governor
he’s as bad as arnold
small biz owners in MA - come to VA low tax no hassle !
Lemme guess, you’re not a small biz owner.
Having started in each area, there’s no question which is better. Unless your business revolves around sucking from the teat of the gov’t, the quality of the workers and the supporting organizations is MUCH better in the greater Boston area. Hands down, no contest.
Growing a biz in greater DC is a huge penalty to your bottom line, far greater than the difference in taxes, benefits, etc.
If your biz relies on gov’t contracts or subsidies in one form or another, that is a different story.
I’m a biz owner but not focussed on gov at all
MA seems an unhappy place for biz- the health thing will hurt
some of my clients from there live in NH
VA rated #1 for small biz
VA rated #1 for small biz? Not by anyone with dirt under their fingernails. It’s a creativity desert here among the workforce. You’re competing with salaried gov’t positions when you hire. If I’m not mistaken, you’ve made several comments about the quality of those workers.
I figured it has a lot to do with the lack of world-class education in the area. (Unless you count George Mason, known for its acute understanding of the basketball court.)
Hell, even San Jose levels of taxes were a better deal.
right on the first 2 , but overall good for biz
I can’t go back to MA w/o a reducation camp stopover
Virginia is a strong for business market(northern va that is) BECAUSE it is the suburb for the largest govt on earth, and the nature of govt is to grow until it explodes. That’s why dc area real estate has been some of the most steady rising, that constant growth of gov workers and their steady pay. You mentioned the low quality govt employees. I totally agree that gov employees are of the least productive type and we are sitting on a mtn of the deadbeats here. but what’s more important to a biz owner is CUSTOMERS WITH MONEY. All those gov workers get steady checks and never get fired as they sleep at their desks and eat donuts all day. They have the money to buy your goods and services. all you have to do to see the difference is to compare the age of the vehicles driving in any 2 areas. I think i’m the only guy left with a vehicle over 10 years old here in va. and yes i’ve run a business here, 12 years of auto service to the nova/montgomery/dc metro area.
what i’d like to know is how do we time the bottom properly of a slow moving real estate market, and what is the best measure. From my reading vacancy rates are critical(and in 2006 jumped over 2% to 2.7%, usually 1.6-1.9, that’s a 40-50% increase, huge.) How do we buy at the bottom and get a steal?
As a recent refugee of that region, I have to say the crapstravaganza of suburban sprawl isn’t particularly conducive to attracting quality workers either.
Don,
My criteria for timing the “bottom” is rental prices and inventory statistics. If I can conceivably rent something out (say I have to move) and not lose my shirt, I’ll feel more comfortable about buying in Northern VA.
“‘If the market had kept rising, we would have been fine because we could have easily sold for a profit when we lost our jobs,’ said Rodrigues. ‘Now, we’re in a jam.’”
As the masters of the universe nervously rifle through a thesaurus trying to find adverbs that will baffle most of the brain dead analysts on wall street. This simple quote illustrates are current “conundrum”.
We are all screwed. But each to a different extent. This family due to their own naivety or greed is now homeless and broke. Those of us who recognized the bubble and prudently watched for the inevitable train wreck. Will now have to support this family and deal with the rise in crime that economic hardship always generates. We will do so in an environment of shrinking economic opportunities.
I hope the clowns at the fed enjoyed this little party. The hangover is going to be a bitch.
“If the market had kept rising…”
If wishes were fishes…
“This family due to their own naivety or greed is now homeless and broke.”
Boo…hoo…hoo!
“A one-bedroom unit that was listed for $190,000 in January, for instance, sold in one day for $180,000. And last month, a two-bedroom, two-bathroom unit that was listed for $299,900 sold in four days for $264,000.”
Last hurrahs before the sub-prime spigot was turned off? I would like to see how long this kind of lunacy continues before people realize the crap they’re buying isn’t worth half–hell one fourth–of what sellers are asking.
An interesting thought - there may be a small boost while marginal buyers rush in to try and get in under the curtain. A bit like the rush of BK filers last year before the new BK law went into effect.
Pay attention, sellers: lowering your price works. Sell now before you’re prices out.
“Bushnell Tower has not been unscathed. Demand for its high-end rentals, with monthly rents of $2,000 or more, have plummeted. Almost 60 of the building’s 176 units are rentals; the individual owners have had to work harder to find tenants and, in some cases, have updated the units or reduced rents, local real estate agents said.”
Rents of $2000 or MORE, for condos in HARTFORD? Damn, I must have slept through a couple of decades and it must be 2027.
Yes. in 2027, global warming has made sunny Hartford, CA the tropical-vacation destination of choice for millions of travelers the world over…
“The Massachusetts housing market showed signs of bumping along the bottom of a year long slump as it heads into the crucial spring season.
Bunping along the bottom with declines from all time high at just a few percent down, I would say bumping along the ceiling. The bottom is miles down from what essentially remain all time high (asking) prices.
“‘The rental market here is pretty much dead,’ said Becky Koladis, an agent who handles rentals and sales in the building. ‘Just recently, I lost a rental to Hartford 21. It’s very hard to compete with brand-new.’”
Its very hard to compete when customers are wondering about their jobs. Sorry CT hedge funds…
Got popcorn,
Neil
Hedge fund land is much further south. Although the distance from Hartford to Fairfield looks small, they are worlds apart. I knew nobody that would volunteer for that commute.
The hedge funds are in Fairfield County, and no one in Fairfield County gives a damn about no Hartford. And by and large they’re gonna end up just fine.
What Hartford does have are insurance companies, and while those jobs aren’t glamorous, many of them pay quite well and are recession-proof (actuaries, portfolio mgrs, etc.).
The fact that people have to sell so quickly from buying their units shows just how much the purchase was a speculation buy . I’m sick of short term holders of real estate who took the gamble who are crying the blues because they didn’t make money in a short time .
And the public is suppose to bail out people who lied on their loan applications and said they were going to occupy the POS .The only reason borrowers would go on toxic loans that they needed to refinance out of within 2 years is because they were playing the appreciation game . I’m not saying that the REIC didn’t tell these people to buy and refinance later but how stupid to believe a salesperson on future real estate trends .We will see with time how the courts rule on some of these cases of borrowers crying foul .
Haven’t seen any price movement in my area yet (outskirts of Philly). I’m confident it’ll happen, just think it’ll lag behind the big area busts (FL, CA, AZ, etc.). However, in talking to a co-worker about this yesterday, he made the comment, “The Northeast Corridor will hold its value better than those other areas.” Translation: another “it’s different here” believer.
Wrong!
try CT in 90’s off 30%
have you seen the buses w 20 year olds lately ?
they thought Philly was a cheaper NY
Townhomes and condos in my area of the Phila. metro have slid ten percent since I started looking last May. I looked at a couple units in February in two separate communities that traditionally don’t even show up on the MLS. They’re in high demand and if they even appear on MLS don’t last two weeks. Both the units are still for sale, one’s listing expired and is now with another agency.
In conclusion, I can only say: BOOYAH!!!!!!!!
Phillygal,
Do you have any info on how the market around Princeton is doing?
No, but grim’s blog is really good. He tracks North Jersey mainly. (I know Princeton is more central Jersey, but he may have the numbers).
The link is on this blog’s sidebar - NJ RE report, I think. His name is James Bednar.
PDX - here it is:
http://njrereport.com/
Two sheriff’s sales/auctions just on my little stretch of Grove Road near Exton . . . oh, it’s coming here too. And it will come fast.
I say the city will get it later - but even harsher than out in the burbs - when the tax abatements start to run out (should begin in a couple of years). no one is gonna be able to sell their condo/townhouse thingie.
the TH communities I referred to were in and around West Chester
“Another wild card: Increasingly both borrowers and lenders in the subprime mortgage market are in financial trouble.”
More so then the MSM understands. Before the collapse of subprime we were running out of buyers. You can never have 100% home ownership. Ergo, we had hit a housing plateau that became over-saturated by speculators pushing housing beyond its normal threshold while interest rates by historical standards were still affordable and at the same time unemployment was purring along at all time lows. Now all you MSM pundits have to do is just bury your heads in the sand and wait for a wakeup kick in the ass.
This is a great point. I’m guessing that the non-manipulated (haha) actual homeownership rate if left to market mechanisms would be in the 50-55% range. Obviously things like the homedebtors deduction, FNM, Prop 13, etc. have caused homeownership rates to rise to around 60%. Not like this is necessarily a good thing, btw. In recent years, the army of subprime and Alt-A borrowers and specuvestors spurred on by ultra-easy money and the promise of easy riches coupled with the non-stop mantra of the “ownership society” and REIC campaigns have caused this number to spike at nearly 70%. This seems to be the absolute ceiling where no more growth can occur. Of course, it’s not pretty when a bubble hits a hard ceiling like that.
On the subprime issue: It seems like a lot of MSM outlets are making hay of the theory that subprime is contained, it won’t spread to prime, etc. These guys have absolutely no idea what they are talking about. First of all, any artificial and temporary supports that the investment banks and hedge funds are giving to the subprimes (Merrill Lynch and First Franklin comes to mind as well as Accredited with Farralon) is basically just a wasted effort and throwing good money after bad.
These Pigmen have been getting their way for so long with regards to just throwing around liquidity and plowing through any momentary downdraft with the easy Fed put, they have no idea how real (estate) markets work. So they chuck all of this money at the subprime lenders in an attempt to make the subprime mess go away. Meanwhile, back in the real world, subprime borrowers are in trouble and they are getting worse. Alt-A borrowers are also in trouble and their situation is getting worse. Housing prices are going down and the market has started to seize-up with cardiac arrest. All of these loans are basically toxic waste and can only be written off in the end. There is no weasling out of this with more hot and/or funny money. You just can’t make this problem go away!!
I should change my nick to “cascading cross-defaults.” Bob Toll and his shenanigans are yesterday’s news.
Kill the value of our houses and kill our only real wealth, for the vast majority of us…
A few of us made other plans.
Apparently even Mickey Mouse is in on the action.
Never ceases to amaze me.
sorry, the url didn’t come through
http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/19/magazines/fortune/clayton.fortune/index.htm?cnn=yes
“we continue to head in the right direction”
Right, back to affordability.
While driving across town yesterday I was listening to a radio program hosted by a bay area lawyer when a caller called in wanting to know what they should do? It seems that their home owner was going into default and they wanted to know their rights. The lawyer explained very succinctly, ” you don’t have any rights”! As said on this blog in the past “Renters BEWARE, check out the property owner before signing”.
maybe they could pay rent into an escrow of some sort
sorta one the FB can’t get to
You have the ‘right’ to change the locks and not pay rent for as many months as it takes for the Sheriff to show up. This should about compensate for the two month deposit plus early moving fees.
If the place you are renting is going into foreclosure, make the most of it.
Exactly. That’s what I’d do. I’d also file suit against the lender for some BS to delay things further. Ha ha ha. Make them work for the property!
……and if you really like the place enough that someday you would like to call it home, and you have flexible morals (read, illegal). You could take all the doors, windows, water heater, carpets, banisters, garage door, opener, fixtures, outlets, switches, lights, countertops, cabinets, drawers, and the shingles if you can manage it; place them all in storage somewhere across town. Next, approach the bank and make a good solid low ball offer on the place.
J
Yeah - tell them the place is barren
This is the headline in today’s LA Times business section:
Home Equity Could Buoy the Economy
Borrowers who have built up stakes could halp keep the US out of recession, experts say.
I showed this to my wife, who, though smart, hates economics and numbers, and I asked her “what’s wrong with this headline?”
She said, “well, that presumes housing prices will keep going up.”
DING DING DING. Right answer. I can’t believe that someone writing for the business section of a major newspaper could write such a piece of drivel. The article goes on to describe how a couple is going to be able to cash out of their Lakewood home, which they bought three years ago with an ARM, and now buy a house in Orange County. Yeah, that’s a good way to protect your earnings. I think it’s possible that reading the Times actually makes you dumber.
I’m not good at letter writing, can someone please draft a letter for me to send to Senator Dodd to this effect: I’m fine with a bailout for all the stated-income folks, but only after their loan docs are forwarded to the IRS to make sure they reported and paid tax on all that income.
Someone posted a letter last week, which I modified to fit on one page with return address and signature. I sent the letter to Senators Kennedy and Kerry (not Dodd) as I reside in Massachusetts, and those two may acutally care about my vote.
======================================
The Honorable Senator Edward M. Kennedy
317 Russell Senate Office Building
Washington D.C. 20510
Dear Senator Kennedy:
It is with great concern that I write regarding Senator Dodd of Connecticut’s recent stance concerning a federal “bailout” of the subprime mortgage industry and the borrowers affected by these loans.
My wife and I are college educated professionals earning six-figures a year residing in Massachusetts. We save money through retirement contributions and set aside a substantial amount of our paychecks in savings for a house down payment. We also realize that were we to buy just a median priced home now we would be one difficult-pregnancy or one job-loss away from foreclosure. With home prices deflating we look forward to the day when we will be able to purchase a home for a reasonable sum.
There is currently an irrational assessment in this country that everyone, regardless of credit history and income, deserves to own a house. This is unrealistic. If a person can neither pay off their existing loans nor save enough for a down payment, why should they be entrusted with a several hundred thousand dollar mortgage in the first place? Why should anyone be able to buy a house with an unproven income and no down payment which makes it easy for them to walk away from the debt obligation with no future impact? The irresponsibility among borrowers and lenders alike is the cause of the housing meltdown.
It is absolutely unfair to support a taxpayer bailout of irresponsible borrowers and lenders while those with the income and credit to buy a home that are responsible cannot afford to own a home. I expect no handouts for my financial decisions. Conversely, I should not be forced to pay for others’ greed, financial miscalculations and unwise decisions. I suspect the majority of responsible Americans feel similarly to me. I urge you to avoid using federal taxpayer money to bail out the financially irresponsible borrowers and companies who created their own economic situation.
Any way they can force people with paid off houses or substantial home equity to borrow against it and blow the money like good Americans? You know, in lieu of higher taxes to help pay for the war?
Savers = fifth columnists?
“including during the early-1990s real estate bust”
I love it, suddenly they’ll start dragging out every old realtor who lived through the earlier real estate bust. all those green realtors won’t get any press. what would they tell us anyways? this is the worst I’ve seen it in my 2 and a half years? I remember after 2000 CNBC did the same thing with their guests. me personally, I listen to virtually nobody under 70. you get someone who is 70 or 80 on CNBC and I listen to every word.
Daniel Schorr would be my poster child…
I’m calling discrimination on these bail- out ideas . For instance ,in the last 18 month I have lost 50k in real equity on my house based on what I purchased the house for in 2005 and the down payment I made . Just because I’m not selling and I didn’t take on a payment I could not afford doesn’t mean I didn’t lose part of my down payment .Is the govement going to pay me for my loss of 50k so far because the market tanked ? I think not .
Alot of these FB’s didn’t even put a down-payment on the property yet they expect the government/IRS to let them slide on just walking away . In alot of cases the FB’s are going to further get a benefit by staying in the property rent-free until they are kicked out ,yet they want the IRS to give them a pass on those costs/benefits that end up being a lenders loss .
Why don’t we just all buy a house with nothing down ,default immediately ,live in the house for a year, and have the government give us a pass on that no-cost rent benefit .
Again I say ,why should the whole tax structure be altered for gamblers in real estate . Why should they raise my taxes (which they will ) to bail these people out ,especially when I also had a loss on my property I have to eat .
I just want to also say that I’m not expecting to get a bail out on part of my purchase money down payment that I’m going to eat . My option is to wait many years for real estate to go up again while I pay my payment that I can afford .
By 2011-2012 we will be referring to 2007 as the great year of appreciation. Baby boomers putting their houses on the market will cause the thing to go into a 30 year slump. So by renting out now, he’ll basically lose money each month totalling 100K instead of losing a 100K right now and in 2011, he’ll gladly lose 250K when he drops the keys off at the bank.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.
I’m thinking maybe by 2020 I might start getting some solid appreciation on house……. maybe.
Karl Case was still in denial as late as 2005 - as to whether there was a bubble or not in Massachusetts - as well as elsewhere
THE MAN LOST HIS CREDIBILITY SEVERAL YEARS AGO
No less than 1 year ago –Chelsea was being billed as one of the hot places to buy –because of the proximity to Boston. It’s essentially the first stop on the commuter rail.
If you tell the bank “come get the keys and tell us when you want us to leave,” and the bank (loaners) say “why not try to sell” (short sale) –aren’t you still liable for the difference? Won’t you still owe the bank the difference of your sale price vs what’s due on the mortgage?
Yes you will owe on a short sale (if the lender allows a short sale) in the form of a 1099 that is filed with the IRS that you will owe taxes on the loss the lender took on the short sale . If the lender decides not to file a 1099 on their loss than a seller on a short sale would avoid a penalty to the IRS .
You see the IRS has to give a tax right off to the lender for the loss they took so the IRS wants to tax the party that got the gift from the lender of the short fall . If you take out a 100k loan and you only give back or pay back 50k you have in essence been forgiven on debt of 50k and that is a benefit in terms of tax liability . It would not be likely that the lender would not want to declare the loss to the IRS .
In other words ,if a lender agrees to a short sale ,the seller is only liable on the taxes owed on the loss the lender had on the short sale .So if the loss is 100k the short sale seller would owe taxes on 100k only ,unless the lender does not declare the loss to the IRS . Somebody correct me if my understanding of the tax codes is wrong .
When must they re-evaluate tax bills based on these falling prices?
Some people are mad right now because they are not getting a decrease on their property taxes yet in spite of values going down . Another bad aspect about the real estate boom is that the run-up in prices also raised property taxes that will cause some people to need to sell because they can no longer afford the taxes ,(in spite of living in the homes for years ).