“A Huge Withdrawal Of Buyers”
A housing report from the Idaho Statesman. “If you are in the market for a high-end house, you’re in luck. Following more than a decade of boom, the Treasure Valley housing market this year will continue to undergo a market correction that started last year. ‘We’ve been through a heckuva transition period,’ from decades of stagnant growth to an unprecedented valleywide boom to a minor bust in the form of a housing market slowdown, John Starr told an audience in Boise.”
“The local housing market in 2006 ended with a more than 40 percent drop in permit activity and a glut of high-priced homes and lots. ‘The market is going to punish you if you are building above $380,000 homes,’ said Michael diVittorio, director of business development for Group One in Boise.”
“Thirteen planned communities covering 18,000 acres with 72,000 homes are in the works for Ada County; about 2,000 condominiums are in the pipeline for Downtown Boise alone.”
“Since few condominiums are for sale in Downtown Boise, but hundreds are under construction, experts cannot determine how much the market will embrace condominiums.”
The Associated Press reports on Oregon. “Portland-area house buyers are finding more inventory to choose from as the market starts to cool. The overall number of houses for sale jumped by 80 percent, to 9,901 on March 1, from 5,503 a year ago, according to figures from the Regional MLS.”
“The increase reflects the backlog of houses for sale for several months as well as a 44 percent rise in new listings — 4,155 houses in February, compared with 3,397 a year ago.”
“The number of closed sales fell 6.8 percent in February, compared with a year ago, consistent with falling demand since last fall.”
“Economists don’t expect Portland to experience a sharp drop in house prices in the months to come. Local growth constraints keep supply from overwhelming demand, said Jerry Johnson, of the Johnson Gardner economic consulting firm.”
“‘It stops developers from doing what they do best, which is overbuilding a market and inadvertently providing affordable housing,’ Johnson said.”
The Register Guard from Oregon. “Looking for your dream home in a beach town? You might find more elbow room at open houses these days. After five years in which median sale prices for homes in the Florence area surged more than 100 percent, buyers have backed off.”
“There were 320 homes sold in and around Florence in 2006, a steep drop from the 449 houses sold in 2005 and the 561 the year before that, said Tawfik Adhab, a Eugene appraiser. ‘What we had is a huge withdrawal of buyers.’”
“Until recently, retirees from states such as California arrived on the Oregon Coast with fat wallets. But when the national housing boom slowed last year, it showed just how tied to the rest of the nation Florence is.”
“Meanwhile, there are plenty of options for buyers, especially those willing to fork over more than $300,000 and especially in the condominium market, where several projects approved during the boom haven’t been built yet and may have to wait awhile to find owners once they’re built.”
“What’s happening now is a return to equilibrium, Adhab said. ‘There’s no doubt we went through the darkest phase in 2006,’ he said. ‘Now we’re probably headed toward recovery, if we’re not already there.’”
From News Channel 8 in Oregon. “Less than credit-worthy mortgage loans are falling apart in record numbers and loan defaults are causing a downward spiral in the housing market.”
“Right now there are six months worth of homes on the market in the Portland area. And while sales have been brisk in the past, so now are delinquencies. They’re on the rise. realtor Mary Low said.”
“‘The fallout is we’re going to see more houses coming on the market,’ Low said. ‘It’s going to be tougher for a young couple who doesn’t have good credit. They’re going to have a harder time finding a loan.’”
“Low blames the sub-prime mortgage business and less than honest realtors and mortgage brokers taking advantage of peoples’ desire to own a home at any cost.”
“Brian Bushlach, a senior mortgage advisor with Alpine Mortgage, said that while the Portland market is still healthy overall compared to the rest of the country, there will still be fallout in the metro area.”
“‘That’s where it’s going to hit at the neighborhood level is people who are trying to sell homes. The entry level price point for a builder or a resale, they can’t now,’ he said.”
“And it goes beyond the ‘For Sale’ sign. ‘Quite a few local mortgage company’s could go out of business,’ said Bushlach.”
The Seattle PI from Washington. “The typical house in the Seattle metropolitan area was 31.7 percent overvalued in the last quarter of the year, up 6.4 percent from the prior quarter and 24.3 percent from the end of 2005, according to Monday’s joint report.”
“Local experts question the idea that Seattle houses are overvalued at all. Randy Bannecker, a consultant housing specialist for the Seattle-King County Association of Realtors, said there just are not enough homes available to cause overvaluing.”
“‘The overwhelming supply shortage is really what’s keeping the prices where they are,’ he said. ‘It’s hard to see where just kind of a run-up for run-up’s sake is in play.’”
“Last year, there were 41 percent more foreclosures in King County and 42 percent more nationally than in 2005, and the number could get higher, according to RealtyTrac. The reason? Wall Street investors poured money into the booming housing market in recent years and lenders found increasingly creative ways to get it to borrowers.”
“About 20 percent of Seattle mortgages had adjustable rates in 2004, according to the most recent U.S. Census Bureau numbers. ‘There are huge numbers of people in foreclosure because of being in ARMs or being put into loans that are completely inappropriate for them,’ said lawyer Melissa Huelsman, who specializes in foreclosures.”
“Part of the problem, said Erin Rearden, a mortgage default counselor, is that many borrowers don’t understand their loans. ‘A surprising number of people don’t even know if they have an adjustable-rate mortgage or a fixed, or don’t even know what their interest rate is,’ she said.”
“Those in trouble seem to be in deeper, she said. ‘What we’re seeing now is people who have permanent reduction in their income or no income. They’re six, seven, eight months behind.’ Just about everyone has refinanced to take equity out of their homes, she said.”
“Adam Stein, president of the Washington Association of Mortgage Brokers, said he’s seeing the market’s impact on loans. Six months ago, he said, he could get 100 percent financing for someone with verified income and poor credit. Now, people with low credit scores need 10 percent or 20 percent down payments.”
The Olympian from Washington. “All those low-interest and no-interest mortgage loans that helped fuel South Sound’s hot housing market last year are coming back to haunt some homeowners.
“Thurston County led the state in foreclosures as a percentage of households last year, according to Realty Trac.”
“South Sound real estate agents and mortgage lenders blame some of the increases on programs that enticed buyers into the market with mortgages that required no money down or allowed buyers to pay interest only for several years. ‘If you could fog a mirror, you could get a loan,’ said Jeff Crandell, broker in Lacey.”
“The pace of South Sound home sales slowed during the second half of last year as the inventory rose. That trend also lengthened the time it took to sell homes and slowed the increase in their value.”
“Homeowners increasingly find themselves with homes that take longer to sell and sales prices that aren’t enough to pay off their loans, said real estate agent Dan Dillashaw.”
“For consumers who expected home values to keep rising as quickly as they did two years ago, ‘They find themselves lucky today to get back the amount they got loaned,’ Dillashaw said. In many cases, the only choice left is for the lender to foreclose on the loan, he said.”
‘A recent article in the Puget Sound Business Journal quoted RealtyTrac Inc. as saying there were 2,377 foreclosures on homes in Snohomish County last year, a 35 percent increase over 2005. That was lower than King County, where foreclosures rose 41 percent, and Pierce County, which showed a 58 percent hike. But it was higher that the 25 percent increase for the state as a whole.’
‘Dramatic declines in student enrollment in the Rogue River School District have prompted the school board to consider using (a) elementary school for administrative offices and leased space for private day-care providers.’ ‘Decreased state and federal funding, combined with an annual enrollment decline of 30 students for the past few years was already causing financial headaches for the district. Unfortunately, last year’s enrollment drop was more than triple the usual amount, said Kuntz.’
‘We lost 100 kids last year,’ said Kuntz, on Tuesday. ‘We had a plan in place to last for the next (two years) dealing with thirty lost students. The plan doesn’t work anymore.’ Speculation about whether the dramatic decline was caused by a teachers’ strike, job losses at a local mill or increased housing costs that squeezed young families out of the market — or all three — doesn’t change the district’s financial realities, said Kuntz. ‘For whatever the reason, it wasn’t anticipated,’ said Kuntz.’
I didn’t hear about this problem 5 years ago. So what’s changed since then? Hmmm…let me think.
I’m guessing not many Californians moving to Ashland, Medford, or Grants Pass are the young family type. So it’s a HUGE demographic shift as San Franciscans in their 50s+ move in with their wads o’ cash and clear out young, locally grown families.
‘We lost 100 kids last year,
Lost to where? I keep seeing headlines about districts losing kids but I’ll bet there name’s not samantha
Over 60 percent of the population of Rogue River is over 65 This is definitly not a kids town. Most of the people here are retired from California.
We have three cops for 24/7 coverage, but other than an occasional wife beating, there isn’t much crime. The main source of income for the town appears to be a speed trap set up for people living in the woods north of town who have to drive through town to get to work. I love it here though. I am in heaven.
Yes… and now Senator WYDEN got the Federal money restored. So taxes won’t have to go up for a while.
My Rogue River neighbor moved up to a McMansion on the river.Actually a very nice custom built home on the river. ( or in the river if we have an unusually heavy rainy season ) He listed is old home 9 months ago for 659k. No takers after 6 months. Changed realtors 3 months ago and lowered price to 524,900. I have never even seen anyone look at it. I bought mine for cash in 2004 for 217k and frankly, I would rather live here.
Condos in BOISE? Where, pray tell, is the demand, from farmers coming into town for a load of fertilizer?
Demand no doubt will come from future California HELOC’s. oops
On a business trip in summer 2004, I was amazed at the flashy types I spied at a downtown Boise brew pub. Not what I expected at all, certainly most weren’t natives they reeked of CA. As a lifelong big city resident I do feel sorry for the locales damaged by the equity locusts.
Say, to anyone from Boise, what’s with that Peppermint Rhino (I think that was the name) place? How does that pass for a gentleman’s club?
I suspect you mean “Spearmint Rhino” - that’s the name of a chain of clubs but I don’t know if there are any in Boise. I think “South Park” lampooned it as the “Peppermint Hippo” awhile back.
Micron and Hewlett-Packard are two big employers in Boise, so there are some Silicon Valley types who have gone there. I also know a fair number of professionals (docs and lawyers) who’ve moved to Boise from Seattle because of what they see as more growth opportunities for themselves (and cheaper real estate, as well…).
“‘It stops developers from doing what they do best, which is overbuilding a market and inadvertently providing affordable housing,’ Johnson said.”
What a dirtbag! Heaven forbid anyone provide affordable housing!
“inadvertently providing affordable housing”
Neat phrase, that.
“‘It stops developers from doing what they do best, which is overbuilding a market and inadvertently providing affordable housing,’ Johnson said.”
Tell that to Arbor Custom Homes - they are dumping brand new townhouses on the rental market because they’ve grossly overbuilt all over the western suburbs of PDX.
Yep, Urban Growth Boundary my a$$. And if Measure 37 claims start moving forward, fugeddaboutit.
Yes, there’s plenty of land inside the UGB still. And when there isn’t, the boundary will simply be expanded.
Hi Txchick57 -
I think he meant this tongue in cheek. I thought it was pretty snarky and funny.
More to the point, from your mentions of trading stocks, am wondering
if you have looked into a biotech company named Dendreon (DNDN).
They have a key event (a review of a prostate cancer treatment) coming up next week with the FDA that’s shaping up to be a watershed event for the stock, one way or the other. Also there’s a pretty big short position against the stock, so if the FDA review is positive, could be a big winner.
I can provide a couple of links to some articles/etc if you want to look into this - email me at mariner_78@yahoo.com.
M78
“A surprising number of people don’t even know if they have an adjustable-rate mortgage or a fixed, or don’t even know what their interest rate is.”
There about to get an “affordabilty product” education real soon, when that NOD shows up.
Proves that people are now buying homes in much the same way they would a car: Simply looking at current monthly payment and thinking “yeah, we can afford that.”
In other words, “Howmuchamonth” Harry’s.
Doesn’t it just mean that income stated on mortgage applications was ‘adjustable’ so the mortgage could be ‘fixed’?
“Homeowners increasingly find themselves with homes that take longer to sell and sales prices that aren’t enough to pay off their loans, said real estate agent Dan Dillashaw.”
To paraphrase the country song: “My give-a-damn is busted!”
[Appraiser Tawfik Adhab said] “There’s no doubt we went through the darkest phase in 2006. Now we’re probably headed toward recovery, if we’re not already there.” Soon to be Bahda Kifwat, i.e., BK.
Whistling past the graveyard. Seems to be the one thing the real estate industry does in perfect harmony. That and sing those ‘I can’t pay for my Jag unless you buy’ blues.
WHAT COUNTRY IS THIS CLOWN FROM?
“to a minor bust”
Minor? I would be more than concernced if one of my student’s GPA went down 40%. To me, that’s more than a MINOR bust!
I visited portland in July 06 and spent a day driving around picking up fliers in front of houses for sale, mostly in the $300-$425 range. I just looked recently on zillow to check if any have sold and roughly of the 15 or so in my sample size, 10 or so have sales prices listed in the last 8 months. Of those all but 1 or 2 sold for less than asking price (the cheapest houses) by about 20-30k.
Of course the friends we stayed with swore up and down that the market was hot, how the local laws constrained growth and how CA migrants drive up prices. I told them how the market is bound to turn down, but they didnt beleive me (one even works for Metro). Of course about a month or 2 after our visit, they let us know that i was right, the market was slowing down and things werent selling like they had been in the past, which was no surprise to me.
what was surprising is how even when conventional wisdom said the market was “hot”, houses didnt sell for months and usually below asking price. i guess it goes to show that everything is relative.
does anybody know how long it takes a sale to show in zillow data, or an alternative for checking sales data history?
does anybody know how long it takes a sale to show in zillow data, or an alternative for checking sales data history?
I’ve seen recent PDX area sales show up on Zillow within a month.
On ours it took at least 3 months. The grossly over-inflated “zestimate” was never adjusted to the real sales price.
Oh, but it’s different in the Pacific NW. Everyone wants to move there, remember?
As an ex-Oregonian, I remember when I moved to L.A. in the early ’90s and still had Oregon plates on my car–random strangers would come up to me and tell me how much they wanted to move to Oregon. I asked them if they had ever been there anytime from November through April. A couple of weeks of nonstop gloomy drizzle can change one’s perspective mighty quick.
Beautiful place, though. Oregonians believe “it’s different here” about many things, and I can see the real estate denial being even more powerful than normal. Plus, Oregon didn’t go through nearly the bubble that California did in the late ’80s, so memories are different.
Oregon is the one state that really does feel different. Not in an RE sense, but generally. No sales tax, no self-serve gas, speed limit signs that just say “SPEED”, all voting is by mail, ballot referenda at a level that makes California seem dictatorial, and it is really pretty a fre months out of the year. It’s like visiting Canada, where a few consipicuous things are different but most things are like the US.
And that’s the new, californicated version of Oregon. The old, real Oregon was even more unique and kinda goofy. That’s pretty much gone, now. I don’t even recognize Portland, or Portlanders, when I visit now.
Yeah, and one of the highest state income taxes in country. And you can’t pump your own gas.
I really dislike not being able to pump my own gas. A lot of places only have mini-service, which means they do nothing but the put the gas in and I still have to go into the station to pay for my gas as they won’t slide your card on the pump. I did hear on OPB radio that we have the highest gas prices in the nation at $2.83ish, while the nation average is $2.50ish.
Sure they’ll slide your card at the pump. You’ll appreciate mini-serve when it’s 33 and raining and you’re 76 and arthritic - and don’t want to (or can’t afford to) pay the extra 20 cents a gallon for full service that you’d pay anywhere but New Jersey.
Hey, the climate sounds a lot like the ocean side of SF…in the summer.
No, Oregon went through a crash in 1981 the likes of which California has never seen… 14% unemployment in Portland. You couldn’t sell a house at ANY price… this right after realtors were going door-to-door in ‘79 trying to BUY them.
Oregon’s economic cycles tend to be boom and bust, particularly outside Portland. As recently as 2003 Oregon had the highest unemployment rate in the nation at 8% and a big state deficit. A lot of the downstate towns still haven’t recovered from the spotted owl timber wars of the 90’s and are kept alive on federal offsets for the non-existent timber taxes.
Oregon was interesting in the 70’s and into the 80’s because there was an interesting mix of weirdos. Now they’re all commodified weirdos. The “bohemians” of downtown Portland are every bit as much of a marketing niche and lifestyle choice as the protagonists in a Ralph Lauren advertisment.
My wife and I spend the winter of 2006 at a friend’s beach house near Florence, Oregon. The locals there are full of stories about California retirees who freak out after a season or two in their “cheap” dream house on the coast. It’s beautiful, especially when the suns out - but that’s not often; and the beach temperature gets into the low 70’s in the summer, if you’re lucky.
Yeah, the coast is western Oregon weather magnified by a factor of 10. Portland and the Valley aren’t as consistently gloomy, but still pretty bad. You can go quite a few weeks without seeing the sun. I know people who love the climate, though. Me, I had to get out of there. I grew up in Portland and didn’t think twice about running around in the rain as a kid. But as a young adult, the weather started slowly driving me crazy. I still visit my parents there, but no way I could move back. Even if there was a great economy there. Which there isn’t.
I keep hearing of native Portlanders moving to Denver and have no desire to ever return, for the same reason. They don’t miss the lack of ocean access (that you can’t swim in or lay out near anyway) and they get 300+ days of sun per year.
I can understand that, given that Denver offers many of the same outdoor attractions that Portland does and has a surprisingly similar culture. Of course, you trade all that drizzle for shoveling several feet of snow every year, so I guess you pick your poison.
They don’t get several feet of snow a year in Denver. Even this year, with its unusual blizzards was bout 3 feet total. Its usually much less than that.
Winters can be relatively mild, at least compared with places like Wisconsin or upstate New York. Highs in the 50’s in January are not unusual.
Portland and Denver are both on my short lists for moving out of CA if prices take too long to decline here (Santa Clara is incredibly sticky, not to mention relatively expensive in any market). I have lived in CA my whole life, and have probably traveled more internationally than domestically, so i have little viral knowledge about out of state locales. Can anyone provide input on job market & climate? My wife is mildly interested in Portland (not impressed with homelessness), but not denver at this point (never been, images of frigid winters come to mind). Based on quick anecdotal searches, it seems like the job market and cost of living are both better in denver.
If you don’t have to work or can telecommute, check out Santa Fe, Sedona or Flagstaff.
I think it’s going come down to climate issues, as well as lifestyle. And Portland is likely more expensive from a cost of living standpoint. But I think the main thing to consider is the weather. Do you like the true 4 seasons, snowfall, mountains, and a lot of sun? Or, do you prefer a more mild climate with grey overcast skies, lots of greenery, and plenty of rain and drizzle with easy access to the ocean? I like both cities, honestly. But, being a gardener, Portland is my pick. If it weren’t for the plants, I’d pick Denver hands down. Just my two cents :O).
check out kingman az. we have a “crackerbarrel” restraunt. the name says it all about kingman. low price new homes, jobs that dont pay much.
Since you’re in Santa Clara, I’m guessing you work in the tech industry in some capacity. In that case, you’re probably better off in Portland, but Portland has been a tough job market since the dot-com bubble crashed. My understanding is that it never really recovered from the crash the way California did.
I don’t know as much about the economy in Denver, but I don’t believe there is the same focus on tech there. Maybe in Boulder?
Climate-wise, the equation is simple:
Portland=stunningly beautiful weather from July-September, offset by nine months of mostly cloudy weather. Drizzle predominates over hard rain. Very little snow.
Denver=Hot, dry summers. Stunningly beautiful spring and fall. A lot of snow in the winter, but not the sort of ungodly long snowy periods you find in Ohio or Upstate New York. It can snow 4 ft. one day and be 60 degrees a few days later. Sunny much of the time. More smog than you’d think.
thanks for the comments, yeah i work for a tech company but im not married to it since i am in finance, so i am pretty flexible. having lived exclusively in CA you get pretty spoiled about weather-any place from here is a compromise of some sort. but now that i am responsible for my own family’s well being i find it hard to justify the “sun tax”. I have thought about AZ and NM tho i physically have a tough time with heat and would much prefer to compromise to cooler climes.
ChrisO - your description of Denver sounds a bit like sacramento, deathly hot & miserable summers (could be 100+ for 2 months). i would be willing to trade some sun for some snow, but it will be hard convincing the wife since she is colombian and has the inverse internal thermometer i do!
@azrenter:
*shudder* no offense, but I hate Kingman. It’s probably due to the fact that I was in the process of moving from Chicago to OC, had to buy a new car in Oklahoma, and the next afternoon in Kingman, some punk 17 year old kid backs into my 27 hour old car in a restaurant parking lot!!
Kingman is a hole with very few redeeming qualities (all related to its location to other places).
Portland job market? Salaries 20-30% below Seattle and the Bay Area - in other words, you take part of your pay in scenery, to use the cliche. If you don’t mind not seeing the sun for a month, you’re in the right place.
Housing prices are lower in Portland than any other West Coast city for a reason - low pay. Many more people want to live in PDX than the job market can absorb.
‘Quite a few local mortgage company’s could go out of business,’
Anecdotal, but about 6 months ago a company (called “Aggressive Properties”, I believe) opened shop not far from where I lived. They are basically one of those “We buy houses” types. I bet they wouldn’t last 3 months.
Well, I was wrong. They closed after 4 months. Building now vacant, no more luxury vehicles in the parking lot.
What exactly is the business model of those “We Buy Houses” places? Could someone enlighten me?
It’s the “everything goes” real estate business model. The reality is they are looking for “motivated sellers” who will sell their homes for about 60-70% of after repaired value.
Some of them do short sales, some of them are rehabbers, some of them (”flippers”) write a contract that allows them to buy the house that they then resell to others for a fee.
Excuse me, flippers don’t really resell the property but merely assign it to the eventual buyer. They usually take a fee for doing so. Usually in the $5000 range. So they lock up the property (via the contract/option) for a period of time without having to buy it while they market it to the eventual buyer.
In the traditional sense of the term, I agree with you sleepless. But today, the term flipper is used more for those who were buying properties short term. They could be rehabbing an old house, or simply buying a new one from a builder with hopes of realizing rapid appreciation.
Yes, I agree. Flipper has become a catch-all for all short term transactions.
Was trying to clear up my comment about the particular type I mentioned. Should’ve put “traditional flippers” in that example.
sleepless reminds me to mention that the back room of the Coldwell Banker office in Morro Bay, which has been advertised For Rent (at least) since mid-fall 2006, is still For Rent.
Will be at inlaws this weekend on central coast - I will give a market update…
I love that area around SLO. Used to stay at little beach houses in Cayucous sp?, and hang out at Avila beach, etc. Fun times. Haven’t been there in 10+ years and wonder if I’d even recognize it.
I love that area around SLO. Used to stay at little beach houses in Cayucous sp?, and hang out at Avila beach, etc. Fun times. Haven’t been there in 10+ years and wonder if I’d even recognize it.
Avila was completly rebuilt after the Unical Spill and lost it’s old town charm.
Just for giggles I pop over at Realty Times to see how disconnected from reality these people are with their local market conditions…..This “Realtor” is describing the Naples, FL market…says that there has been a subtle slow down….hahaha. too many funny ones to list….check this out for yourselves….Don’t know what the “P.A.” stands for next to his name.. care to comment imploder?
http://realtytimes.com/rtmcrcond/Florida~Naples~richardgprebish
As most are aware, the southwest region of Florida has experienced remarkable growth in the last decade. In parallel with the population growth, property values have increased dramatically. Projections of regional growth in the upcoming years continue to fuel the local real estate market.
With that being said, however, as of late, we have seen a subtle slow in many aspects of the housing market. The past couple of months have been indicative of a transformation from a “Seller’s Market” to a more “Balanced” or two-sided market. In addition, not only have the number of new listings increased, but the number of pending sales has decreased. Both an increase in new listings and a decrease in the number of pending contracts has lead to a rise in inventory and hence a transition from a “Seller’s Market” to that of a more “Balanced” market.
The regions/communities in which these transitions are most evident are those which are, what I call, “Investor Heavy” or filled with investors. The falling price trends range the whole product spectrum; however, we are seeing market shifts predominantly in pre-construction and fixer-uppers. For the most part, real estate along the Gulf, and well established neighborhoods are not experiencing the “shift” present in the above-mentioned property types. Again, this is a generalization, there are communities along the Gulf that are experiencing downward trends as well as pre-construction communities that are seeing stable and/or appreciating prices. The key component, again, is much due to the amount of investors and their necessity to sell.
Although we presently have a larger inventory than last year at this time, there is no reason for alarm. This phenomenon can be attributed to a couple of factors. First, Hurricane Wilma came through the area back in October. The hurricane, without any doubt, did have an effect on the market… to what degree is yet to be determined. It is important to realize, however, that these effects, historically, are short term and may not be as evident 6-9 months after a hurricane passes through an area. Simply put, “People forget”.
Secondly, everyone will tell you about how low inventory was at this time last year. Locating buyers was not the problem; it was finding a home to meet their needs. As the market continued to appreciate, more and more people decided to sell and either relocate and/or purchase more property. As a result, inventory steadily increased throughout the year.
My projection for the upcoming months is very optimistic. I firmly believe the market will continue to hold strong and begin to appreciate at rates unmatched throughout the country. The fact of the matter is that the southwest Florida is what most would consider a “sheltered” market. Being one of the most desirable areas to live in the United States, there will always be a strong and TRUE demand for property in the area. More importantly, and partly as a result of the above notion, the area is radiating with a great deal of employment opportunities and increases in salaries. Both of which are very important economic indicators which drive the housing market. Please stay tuned for future insight!
Shall you prefer to speak with me in person or simply communicate via e-mail, please do not hesitate to do so. My cell phone number is (239) 357-6628 and e-mail address is Richard@RichardPrebish.com, or visit http://www.RichardPrebish.com. I am happy to entertain any questions and/or concerns.
Anyone wanna send Richard an e-mail? (C’mon. Double-dawg dare ya!)
Slim here. Again. If you click on Richard Prebish’s website link, you won’t get to it. Wonder if he’s still an agent…
maybe he’s a comedian
He’s attributing downward sales to Hurricane Wilma, which he say’s passed through last October? No wonder he’s in trouble. Wilma hit in October of 2005. The poor man has lost a year somewhere, possibly from a UFO abduction.
Good catch Incred - Guess he was shellshocked from the multiple hurricane hits of 2004 and 2005.
The auction format is starting to take hold in the Sarasota market. That’s never a good sign - shows that properties aren’t moving and the only people who buy at auctions in a bad market are total sharks who will only buy if they can get a deal. It’s a restricted audience - basically, cash buyers who are educated and not overly
emotional. How would you like to be at the mercy of that kind
of buyer ? Well, at least they get the property moved, that’s some consolation….
Here’s three in SW Florida presently up on ebay that I found overnight (not as bad an auction situation, but these properties would have gotten twice as much in 2005):
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=230101095704
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=120097755016&fromMakeTrack=true
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=120097755016&fromMakeTrack=true
M78
Economists don’t expect Portland to experience a sharp drop in house prices in the months to come.
Yes, it’s different here. Everybody wants to live in Portland.
The CA equity locust phenomenon is finished. Good luck with the spring sales to all the FBs, realtwh*res and other REIC parasites.
“Portland-area house buyers are finding more inventory to choose from as the market starts to cool. The overall number of houses for sale jumped by 80 percent, to 9,901 on March 1, from 5,503 a year ago, according to figures from the Regional MLS.”
Longterm, you’ve got to be bullish on Portland. It’s one of the nicest spots in theworld and the demographic tailwind at its back is as strong as the world class sailboarding winds on the nearby Columbia River Gorge.
Is it nicer than it was 10-30-50-100 years ago? And what does sailboarding pay?
Regarding demographics, old people don’t like cities unless they’re too poor to move out. Do they all sailboard, I guess?
Portland is one of those places that I wish I could like more, but in the final analysis can’t.
Is it nicer than it was 10-30-50-100 years ago?
No.
It’s been invaded by hordes of wannabe granolaheads, and at every scenic place around Portland they’ve managed to plop down zillions of the same crappy McMansions you see everywhere else. It’s still a beautiful, unique place, but the beauty and uniqueness are rapidly dying. I visit once a year or so, and I notice the difference quite starkly with each visit.
The beauty and uniqueness of every town in america is dying. I don’t see an end to it - the chain store / cookie cutter business model has proved too successful in all areas to be abandoned.
The United States of Generica…
cant remember where I heard that mentioned, but, the franchise model has steamrolled mom and pop.
“Longterm, you’ve got to be bullish on Portland.”
You are correct, “its different” in Portland.
Hold on while I add it to the list, while I am there I will check off some of last years “its different” spots…
Like I said a few days ago, PDX and other Johnny-come-latelies to the RE euphoria are going to be cheated out of their “normal” bust. It’s going to be a crush as portland, seattle, bend, boise, ashland catch up with Las Vegas and Fontana in a hurry this summer.
I really hope you are right - I’m hoping to buy in late ‘08 - but so far houses seem to be moving pretty quickly still - hence the inventory hasn’t been growing as badly as last year - although in the last few weeks I’ve noticed more properties on the market.
Course I’ve seen more ‘Sale Pending” signs as well.
I really don’t think it’ll crash anywhere near as badly as SD or LA - but I’m hoping it’s a decent 15-20% off - maybe I could afford something then.
git, i don’t think you’ll have to wait long as I just finished selling my house there for 14% off the peak (last summer’s prices of 2 identical models). Put median prices and NAR-speak out of your head and do some digging, 15% off is in-the-bag already my friend.
What demographic tailwind? Other than a few Intel engineers and some CA retirees, I don’t see people flocking to come live here. And plenty of kids who can’t wait to get the he1l outta here. My prediction is atleast 50% haircut in house prices in 18 months (and that includes the downtown condos).
ESPECIALLY downtown condos. That is, of course, except for those converted to “luxury” apartments.
BTW, a few weeks ago I posted that the Strand condos appeared to have two people looking out from one of the units. I thought they looked kinda suspicious and might be cardboard cutouts, but there’s no way they’d stoop that low right?
Well, I’ve driven past there about 15 times since then and (surprise!!) those “people” haven’t moved. Probably the most pathetic attempt that I’ve seen to make it look like units have sold. Meanwhile, the other two buildings in the complex are pitch black. Ouch!
Like in “Home Alone.” This is hilarious. Cardboard cutouts. Is one of them Elvira, pehaps? I used to want her cutout from “Elvira: Mistress of the Dark.”
Over the last 15 years or so, the Portland area has grown immensely. I’m not sure what they all do, since the local economy isn’t all that great. That said, prices in Portland *have* gone up, and without the California equity refugees (and they’ve been coming to Ore. long before the current bubble), prices are going to plummet.
BAHAHHAHAHA
With all the implosion its been a while since we had a troll.
Tell us more about how its different there?
I guess you left to go put up some more real estate signs?
Portland may not have been overbuilding but just across the river In Washington state they’ve been building as fast as they can. I found 4,100 listings for Clark county (in WA), compared to 2,600 for Washington county (includes Portland)
Portland is in Multnomah County, not Washington. Washington County is Beaverton, Tigard, and Hillsboro areas.
He was referring to Clark County, Washington, which has developed into a bedroom community for Portlanders, and especially into a good retirement location for Portlanders, given Washington’s lack of property taxes and lower income taxes.
“compared to 2,600 for Washington county (includes Portland)”
Washington County doesn’t include Portland was my point. Multnomah county, which includes Portland, will show many more listings than Clark County. But still, 4100 listings in Clark County seems HUGE.
Clark County (Vancouver, WA) has been the fastest growing county in WA for the last couple of years–explosive subdivision growth across the Columbia River from Portland. It’s a town lacking in character or even much scenic beauty (their waterfront is mostly industrial) but it’s considered a cheaper community than Portland. The commute across the river to Portland is getting pretty bad. When I give medical talks down in Vancouver WA and chat with the staff, most seem to have spouses or family members in the construction/trades biz.
Sorry, I should have read closer. Uptown is incorrect-Washington County is indeed the western suburbs of Portland, not Portland itself. Washington County has exploded in size and is much more populous than Clark County, though Clark is working hard to catch up.
oops, and I should’ve read further before responding…..
Longterm, as in…100 years longterm?
the demographic tailwind at its back is as strong as the world class sailboarding winds on the nearby Columbia River Gorge.
This reads like a Jackie Collins novel.
Portland hasn’t experienced the same run up in prices as the rest of the country, so it may not get hit as hard.
However, those downtown condos are going to get killed.
Agreed - those “Strand” condo’s start at 450k for a 1003 sq foot one bedroom - that’s Kalifornia prices.
Older established ‘hoods should hold up better though - which sucks as that’s what I’m hoping to buy.
I’m old school. The “Pearl District” and all that nonsense is still Skid Row to me: winos, runaways, and stoned-out hippies. I know it’s changed, but the Condo Crash is going to hit hard there. Maybe the winos will come back.
“Just about everybody has refinaced to take equity out of their homes”.
For over a year now, there has been a huge HELOC push up here. It seems everywhere you looked they were advertising. Still continues even now.
Does anyone have the link to the British article (from yesterdays Daily Mail??) wherein a BoE chief admitted that their plan to avert recesssion years back was to put people into personal debt, thereby holding up consumption, since consumption was ALL that the economy had left?
Does this sound familiar or what?
We’ve had it. Nowhere to go but down from here.
Like some have said here before, “Keep your powder dry, buy some guns and ammo, and store up on canned goods and water get generator.”
http://www.preparedness.com/
Here ya go. Don’t forget kitty litter, too.
The RE shills up here continue to scream about how Seattle is in the lower percentage for subprime loans (true enough). They have not once mentioned that Seattle is in the top TEN markets for Alt A adjustables, ption ARMs and such.
Can’t wait to see how they’re going to spin that one once Alt A starts imploding.
I am wondering if there are parallels here for some of the Texas markets that have also risen in an “echo bubble” of the madness in California. There is a ton of construction in Austin right now - it’s a nice city but I wonder how many 400k+ houses and condos this market can support (especially with a property tax that is ~ 3% per year).
I went to Texas recently, and was shocked at how high the property taxes are. Sure there’s not state income tax, but I’d trade a 6-7% income tax for a 3% property tax any day, when property values are 6-7 x income.
Renting is the way to go in TX if you are in tax-avoidance mode.
Oh, it’s a total parallel. Ore. and Wash. have been inundated with Calif. equity locusts, just like Austin. Oregon’s overall tax burden is one of the higher in the country, due to its income tax. Sure, Texas has high property taxes, but no income tax.
Oregon needs a sales tax!!!
Forgot to mention — Get rid of the income tax!
“Since few condominiums are for sale in Downtown Boise, but hundreds are under construction, experts cannot determine how much the market will embrace condominiums.”
This shows how easy it is to get a large scale development loan. In years past, a person would have to develop an extensive market study including detailed analyses of recent projects - success and failures. Also, the person would have to compare other projects in the pipeline to show there was not too much product being constructed. Finally, a person would have to show these projects could be financially viable based on real data.
These days, hot air and bs seem to be enough to get a $15 million loan. Just like the mid 80’s when S&L’s would invest in any land development project that would come throught the door.
Follow the Money
Countrywide Leads Insider Selling Spree
By Brett Arends
Mutual Funds Columnist
3/21/2007 11:01 AM EDT
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/funds/followmoney/10345737.html
When the subprime mortgage collapse gathered speed two weeks ago, Eric Sieracki at Countrywide Financial (CFC) sought to calm his investors’ nerves.
“This is the pain phase of a healthy cycle,” the CFO said at an investment conference in San Francisco. “We’ve been through these kinds of cycles before and we’ve seen another day. … We’re a top-conditioned athlete.”
Interesting Itulip posts:
Re: Can the U.S. economy digest the trillion dollar ARMs egg?
Post#4
“On the subject of $1 trillion, did I see correctly that China’s central bank gov. Zhou Xiaochuan stated that China will no longer continue to accumulate foreign reserves? I have a hard time believing this, but god help us if that is true. Can you even imagine what would happen to the dollar and interest rates if China turned off the spigot so suddenly? I am having trouble conceiving of where all that capital would turn to. Equities markets already seem so bloated, China would have to be crazy to continue to fuel that fire. All signs point to domestic investment and consumption, all of which would riase commodities prices. I cannot conceive of any other conclusion. Anyone else care to venture a guess?”
ablevin
#5
Today, 10:59 AM
jk
“the chinese have indicated that they will set up an investment fund of about $300 billion, perhaps modelled on singapore’s scheme. since it seems unlikely, for many reasons, that they will liquidate 30% of their trillion $ portfolio overnight to fund such an entity, my guess is that they will direct new money that way, thus taking about 3 yrs to get the thing fully funded. the singapore set-up has both portfolio investments and owns whole companies.
there are many possible goals for the new chinese investments, especially as they will not necessarily be profit-maximizing in any short-term time frame. for example, they might invest evne more than they are now in big, long-term projects in africa- securing both natural resources and political alliances. they might do the same in latin america. how about joint ventures in eastern europe? might be a smart move financially, and would garner support in the e.u. in the meantime, this removes what has been ongoing support for the u.s. dollar and the bond market.”
“Homeowners increasingly find themselves with homes that take longer to sell and sales prices that aren’t enough to pay off their loans,”
——————————————————–
and this is pre subprime meltdown. days on the market and comps are meaningless in a post subprime meltdown world. everything changed last week
“Homeowners increasingly find themselves with homes that take longer to sell and sales prices that aren’t enough to pay off their loans.”
If we could just get USA Today to headline this on their front page. It’s the one sentence that could just kill any hope for a Spring rebound or a soft landing. How much longer before the masses start to digest the new reality?
http://activerain.com/blogsview/41979/How-to-Sell-Your
Not to worry. Uber-realtor Barbara Corcoran tells you how to sell your home in a weekend. Gotta love that Cult Guru head shot she included - a beatific Bab’s giving her benediction to the swooning Kool-Aid imbibers. Note that the gushing love notes from her simpering groupies dried up abruptly in early March [though several Ben's Army visitors dropped in to stir the pot]. I’m guessing her former groupies are now dropping off applications at Taco Bell. Let’s see if we can’t raise their morale, shall we?
I just read Barbara Corcoran’s semi-biography book. I enjoyed the organizational strategies of her mother with the 10 kids. (But that’s beside the point).
Barbara makes some very good points in the URL you linked. The rental property we live in in Northern VA went under contract in the first weekend (this weekend). She forgot to mention price. Our landlord’s was priced the lowest in the neighborhood. (The only motivated seller there). That seemed to generate a lot of interest from the falling-knife catchers.
(Of course, the contract stipulates that the buyers have to sell *their* house in 60 days, and so the ponzi scheme might unravel).
“‘The fallout is we’re going to see more houses coming on the market,’ Low said. ‘It’s going to be tougher for a young couple who doesn’t have good credit. They’re going to have a harder time finding a loan.’”
Hmmm… perhaps PRICES will come DOWN TO MEET THEM!