“Buyers Able To Consider A Range Of Inventory” In Florida
The Florida realtors report on February sales. “According to the Florida Association of Realtors…sales of single-family existing homes totaled 10,779 last month compared to 14,080 homes sold in February 2006 for a 23 percent decrease. Florida’s median sales price for existing single-family homes in February was $235,500; a year ago, it was $242,500 for a 3 percent decrease.”
“Sales of existing condominiums in Florida also decreased last month, with a total of 3,172 condos sold statewide compared to 4,397 in February 2006 for a 28 percent decline, according to FAR. The statewide median sales price for condos last month remained flat at $212,200; a year ago, it was $213,000. ‘Why wouldn’t you buy now? Mortgage rates are still incredibly low and buyers are able to consider a range of inventory,’ says May Aston, president of the Manatee County Association of Realtors.”
“Among the state’s larger markets, the Sarasota-Bradenton Metropolitan Statistical Area reported the market’s median sales price for homes was $294,500; it was $324,200 in February 2006 for a 9 percent decrease.”
“The Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay MSA reported the existing home median sales price was $201,100; a year ago, it was $232,700 for a 14 percent decline. The market’s existing condo median price was $168,800; a year ago, it was $206,300 for a decrease of 18 percent.”
The News Press. “Prices and sales of homes in Lee County fell in February compared to a year ago, according to statistics released today by the Florida Association of Realtors. The median price of a single-family home sold with the help of a Realtor fell 9 percent from $280,300 to $256,100 while the number of sales fell 38 percent from 682 to 423.”
“For condominiums, the price fell 31 percent from $356,600 to $247,600 and the number of sales fell 24 percent from 195 to 149.”
The Herald Tribune. “Investors from California to New Jersey jumped at the opportunity to sign contracts for the investment homes in Florida. They were drawn by a group of companies that included CCI, Enchanted Homes, American Mortgage Link and Seashore Resorts LLC of South Carolina.”
“The investors’ credit was used to get construction loans with little or no upfront cash. They were promised 10 percent of the home’s value once the property was sold.”
“Not all of Enchanted’s clients are happy with the home builder’s service. Timothy and Maryann Stefanik of Swartswood, N.J., contracted with Enchanted to build a home in Cape Coral. They said they were introduced to the builder by Seashore Vice President Carl Cirinelli.”
“The couple has claimed that a $100,000 lot sold to them on March 3, 2006, was virtually identical to two adjacent lots sold for $50,100 each on Nov. 11.”
“The Stefaniks, who have hired a lawyer, maintain that Seashore and Enchanted misrepresented the deal to them and that the appraisals supplied by American Mortgage Link to the couple and to Coast were not current.”
“The deal ‘put us in a position of having a house that’s value is $125,000 less than the mortgaged amount,’ Maryann Stefanik said.”
“Enchanted principal Thomas Gillespie said he does not know what ‘Seashore or others promised’ the Stefaniks, ‘but they have a beautiful two-story home on a canal that has been issued a certificate of occupancy.’”
“‘Everything was fine until the market turned around — they got a package deal in a program that works,’ he said.”
The St Petersburg Times. “Looks like bad things come in threes for Coast Financial Holdings. The Bradenton bank was pelted Thursday with three federal class-action lawsuits on behalf of shareholders who have seen their investments tank.”
“The suits allege Coast fraudulently propped up its stock price in 2005 and 2006 by hiding its reliance on loans tied to a single builder. Coast declined comment Thursday evening.”
The News & Observer from North Carolina. “Local homes sales declined in the first two months of 2007 as the Triangle’s most important industry continued to weaken.Brokers closed on 1.7 percent fewer homes in January and February in Wake, Durham, Orange and Johnston counties compared with a year ago, according to Triangle MLS. The inventory of unsold homes was up 10.9 percent in February compared with a year earlier.”
“‘It’s a weakening market,’ said economist Michael Helmar, who predicted sales will continue to decline for several more several months. Building is slowing but it will take months to absorb excess housing inventory, he said.”
“Brokers are still seeing plenty of clients who have moved to the area but can’t buy because they can’t afford two mortgages. ‘If anything, the amount of people outside the area having trouble selling their houses has increased,’ said (broker) Ann-Cabell Baum Andersen.”
“Joe Ward, who sells about 100 homes a year in Raleigh, has three houses that would sell if the buyers could unload their homes out of state. ‘When the market slowed down in spring and summer it was very obvious that the relocating buyer was going to hurt our market,’ he said. ‘It’s still the same.’”
“Building permits and lot sales, both harbingers of future sales, point to further slowing. Fewer lots also were sold. There were 1,998 single-family lots closed during the fourth quarter of 2006, down 14.6 percent from the period a year earlier, according to Market Opportunity Research Enterprises.”
“Brokers are also waiting to see how much sales will drop now that lenders are requiring higher credit ratings and down payments for subprime mortgage loans.”
“Glen Astolfi, chief operating officer at DNJ Mortgage in Cary, is also seeing more people who can’t qualify for subprime mortgages, and fewer lenders willing to make the loans. ‘If you have lower credit scores, its getting harder and harder to finance with no money down,’ Astolfi said. ‘It’s going to hurt home sales.’”
Here are the tables with the FAR metro numbers, single family and condos.
Here’s some Orlando numbers:
‘The inventory of homes available for purchase increased by a slower-paced 789 homes in February (compared to an increase of 1,729 in January) to a total of 22,055. The total inventory for February is 70 percent above that of February 2006 and reflects a 15.9-month supply at the current pace of sales. A total of 1,386 single-family exiting homes sold last month, a decline of 38.9 percent from February 2006.’
‘The existing condo market is continuing its weakening trend: sales in February declined by 52 percent (from 425 in February 2006 to 206 in February 2007). The sales of duplexes, townhomes, and villas dropped 42 percent in February, from 197 in February 2006 to 115.
I wonder when inventory will flatten? any ideas?
I saw this on Yahoo today
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070323/economy.html?.v=12
and I quote
“David Lereah, chief economist for the Realtors, said he believed that demand for homes could be cut by 150,000 to 200,000 annually over this year and 2008 because of the lending troubles.
“Our view is that the tightening in the subprime market will have a negative impact on home sales,” Lereah said. “It probably won’t postpone the recovery (in housing) but it will slow it.”
What kind of double speak is this?
‘Why wouldn’t you buy now? Mortgage rates are still incredibly low and buyers are able to consider a range of inventory,’ says May Aston, president of the Manatee County Association of Realtors.”
Can’t argue with that logic. Condo prices have plunged $800 from last year.
Yeah, amazing that the median price being 5~6 times median income isn’t even a thought to them.
Right, nor do they mention the nearly 3 years of inventory in Sarasota-Bradenton which is still growing. This place is a disaster area…..
I was watching the NCAA tourny yesterday, and it was FILLED with pathetic Realtor commercials. They all had the same message:
1) there’s never been this much inventory out there, so there’s a range of houses to choose from
2) interest rates are near historic lows
3) thus, it’s never been a better time to buy!!!
Pathetic. They even have one family who says “We wanted this house for so long, so when the price dropped, we knew this was our only chance to get this house! we could never have done this without our Realtor!”
what a crock.
I saw that. I think one commerical said, “there has never been a better time to buy a house, in terms of choice”. I turned to my wife and asked if she heard that and she said, I bet there will be more choices next month.
You better hang on to your wife then. Looks like you have a good wife.
Agreed. I have been noticing these LAME-O commercials also. Makes me want to hurl. What liars realtors are.
“Can’t argue with that logic. Condo prices have plunged $800 from last year”
I’m sure you meant that tongue-in-cheek, thinking that we’re overreacting to the “mild” drop in housing prices. But as has been argued here many a times, the true drop is much more than $800.
True, the average condo THAT SOLD went for only $800 less than those THAT SOLD last year. However, people are getting bigger and nicer condos for much much less. The median is masking the truth.
Add into that all the stuff coming on line and you have a Betty Crocker recipe for disaster.
Only an idiot would buy a SoFl condo right now. I wish I could short SoFl condos…
When the SoFla condo market crashes I’ll buy a unit so I too can proudly state that I live on America’s Wang
Florida’s standard license plate for the last couple of years adds a couple of orange “jewels” below the “wang.”
Best is the license plate A55 RGY with the orange in the center forming an O. You can google it, but I’m at work so I’d rather not look for it myself. It was a standard issue within Florida’s regular license plate sequence.
And everyone in the state is about to get screwed.
Even so, the point is that prices are still astronomical and current prices have given back but a tiny percentage of the runup over the past five years or so. And as DC in LBV pointed out still 5 - 6 times annual incomes. Anything much over 3 X is getting into unnafordable territory, so the answer to “Why wouldn’t you buy now?” is simple. Prices are still way too high. - by a factor of at least two. This goes for most bubble areas - pretty much all of the east and west coasts, although obviously not in uniform amounts.
Yes, life sucks when “everybody is priced out forever”
Like I’ve said earlier, it will be rough on Florida, since everybody has been priced out forever. thus, there will be zero transactions forever.
Shows how rediculous the “logic” was about “buy now or be priced out forever”. but at the time, it sure was persuasive.
kind of like the “they’re running out of land in Arizona” argument.
gotta go, I have a rich foreigner that I need to find to buy my house!
but at the time, it sure was persuasive.
Its more than enough logic to fool a fifth grader, so naturally the majority of people fell for it
Yes Inspector I was being silly. I just presumed I wouldn’t have to put that dumb NOT at the end.
Here’s a great moniker for somebody…
Feel free to filch:
House_tradamus
House_will_damn-us
Whadditellya again? I said the words “national housing crisis” would be uttered on July 1 of this year.
Looks like MSN beat me by three months. Check out their home page.
Crisis, hah. We’re heading into a national housing APOCALYPSE.
Housing apocalypse. I like that phrase. I’m going to start using it instead of boring old housing bubublububble.
we have been in one for a while. A housing market so dangerous to buy into that doing so means almost certain financial ruin for those who do and are not truly wealthy.
In fact I’m changing my name. I’m on gonna try it on for a few days for now; I reserve the right go to back.
housing_apocalypse_now
formerly passthebubbly
I like passthebubbly better. Could be because I have enjoyed your posts for so long. I hope you keep your old handle (name). Then I wont have to re-learn who you are. Its kinda like we are all kids in ben’s class and a student comes back after break and says that he changed his name. I would take a bit to adjust to.
As a compromise I could sign all my posts “Housing Apocalypse Now!” the way Neil uses “Got popcorn?” I just really like the sound of housing apocalypse a lot.
Thanks, btw.
I don’t see it. Have a link?
There’s a lot of loans about to reset in the next 5-6 months. That’s NOT going to help the inventory problem.
http://realestate.yahoo.com/Florida/Tampa/Homes_for_sale/result.html?p=Tampa%2C%20FL&type=foreclosure
It’ll help the inventory problem as far as I’m concerned, but then I’m not trying to sell.
So the Naples area sold 17 SFH last month.
Realtor.com shows 5864 SFH for sale in Naples.
There certainly is a range of houses to buy out there…
oops, missed the asterisk. 1182 SFH for sale on Marco Island, 17 sold.
Nice of Naples not to report.
that’s still 7½ years’ supply.
better hurry!!
A few months ago the Naples Board of Realtors got into a tif with the FAR and refused to give their numbers. It seems that this is still happening. Collier County is divided between the Marco Islando Board of Realtors and Naples Board of Realtors, the 17 sold number only represents Marco Island.
Also, the 529K median sale, would definately go down when the rest of the county is included. I believe that Naples is ground zero of the housing boom and bust in Florida.
Ben….I don’t understand those condo stats
for Pensacola …443 sales in 2006
14 sales in 2007 …but only down 14 %
maybe a typo?????
OPINIONS PLEASE!
When will the mortgage/housing bubble mess effect the overall stock market?
When people realize they can’t plop their HELOC into the stock market. Or when HELOC-fueled sectors (like home improvement retailers, companies that make tools for contractors, and auto manufacturers) hit the skids.
Probably when the HELOC money can’t help keep the double digit profits of recent years. Some US comapnies that have overseas exposure could still do OK but those dependent on consumer discretionary items (retailers, autos, etc.) will take a hit. Consumer staples and other defensive plays will fair better.
The market will hold until there is solid evidence of consumer spending below prior year, or unemployement spikes (baring an external shock).
Let’s see:
home “owners” have been extracting equity against the home atm for 5 years to buy cars, stocks, vacations, more houses, tvs, dinner, etc… And, most importantly granite countertops
declining home prices will reduce or shutdown the availability of magic ATM money. That’s NFG for the economy, especially the companies that sell those products. That’s NFG for the people who work for those companies or supply those companies. Foreclosures and short sales make the problem worse by a factor of 2-1000000000 (You decide).
Thats bad for the stock market. keep in mind that real estate related industries generated >50% of the job growth over the last 5 years. Oh, by the way local tax receipts will also plummet at the same rate as home sales and prices. That’s no good either.
I’d say the stock market could see some pain.
The market has gained almost 100% of its profits hitfrom the fall to mid April the next year. IRA and pension funding are holding up the market. We have either hit our high or will see a token new high into April. It is over.
China is another key. The recent new high has limited power/breadth. It appears to be holding up a parrabolic high to to be followed by a crash. This market looks like gold in 1980 or the USA in 1929.
Assuming average sales price is 20% higher than median and there are 5,000 realtors in Miami, an average realtor made 4 grand last month. And that is gross, before taking out all the overhead, ads, and gas.
As long as the realtors can make more than the day laborers building the houses they’ll keep it up.
The neo-cons, and therefore Bush, know its coming…
http://aei.org/publications/pubID.25836,filter.all/pub_detail.asp
Well, someone has to tell him first. He doesn’t bother reading stuff.
From the Link…(please tell me this is not what the Bush folks are planning).
“One would hope that the Federal Reserve anticipates the coming housing induced-economic slowdown and that it stands ready to aggressively ease monetary policy as needed to soften the fallout from the coming housing bust. “
And send the value of the dollar over the cliff.
OT, but I just stumbled onto this article written in May 2002. It’s pretty sobering to read it because if they considered the statistics mentioned in the article as a “crisis”, what the heck is the definition now. I only WISH we could go back to May 2002 after reading this. Enjoy the little trip back in time:
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2002-05-20-housing-market.htm
The article points out that in the 10 year period between betwen 1991 and 2001 home prices went up a whopping 52% (the crisis). I bought my first home in 2001 in SoCal for 200k. It’s now worth 650k. Thus, in the subsequent 6 years it has gone up another 225% by my calculation. But now the RE fools don’t even see a crisis in home values with their wishing prices set even higher.
but that was back in ‘02. Since then Greenspan collapsed rates, and when that failed to get the reaction he wanted, he then suckered everyone into adjustable rate mortgages.
So you see, we have Greenspan span to thank for fixing that nasty 2002 housing crisis.
The new definition is, “Whole new economic paradigm.”
We need a new methodology to measure prices. Median really doesn’t mean much, since buyers tend to buy as much as they can, and if prices are falling they just buy a better quality home. This hides price declines.
How about a basket of say 20 various levels and types of homes in a given market. Then have an appraiser value them once a month, based on the most recent sales of COMPARABLE properties. Total up the 20 prices and divide by 20, for the most recent average price of the same properties month after month.
That would give us a true read on what is happening with prices. With all the media outlets out there with big bucks available, why hasn’t at least one of them done something like this to give us REAL numbers on what is happening to prices?
oh..forgot…the main stream (corporate owned) media doesn’t WANT us to know what is really happening to prices in a down market. Might scare the horses..so to speak.
“We need a new methodology to measure prices.”
I have that methodology. I call it the Olympia yardstick. Peak of the boom 3BR/2.5 BA/2CG was running $550’s. Same house with a different model name today runs $330’s. It’s like a fire sale!
Is that Olympia way out west of Palm Beach Bad Andy?
I was recently out there looking at houses (for someone else, I hate it out there). The realtors were looking very, very hungry! Rents were just insane compare to selling prices. 1M for 3500 or less over and over. I would make an offer at 2500/mo to all of them at one time, see who bites first.
Take a look in Evergrene, there are some bloodbaths going on in this community. 175K off previous sale on a 800K home. That’s a bad year!
Price per square foot would be a good start.
“Price per square foot would be a good start.”
Olympia 2005: $293 per square foot
Olympia 2007: $177 per square foot
Like I said, the Olympia yardstick!
Price vs. rent. “Price” means (after-tax mortgage payment) + (after-tax property taxes) + insurance + HOA/assessments + maintenance + (opportunity cost of downpayment). “After-tax” means excess over standard deduction. “Rent” means plain old rent.
So true. There are so many hidden costs to homeownership. I rent a home now and every time my sink leaks or the latch on my gate won’t close the landlord has to spend $300 for some handyman to come out and fix it. Plus my wife doesn’t ask for new drapes or fancy paint in the kid’s room in our rental.
(How about a basket of say 20 various levels and types of homes in a given market. Then have an appraiser value them once a month, based on the most recent sales of COMPARABLE properties.)
There are certain generic housing types in areas, and one could just track sales of that housing type. In Brooklyn its either the Brownstone or the Culver 2 family bowfront brick. In Queens, the Archie Bunker house, a 17 foot wide house on a 25 foot wide lot with a driveway down one side and the lot line on the other. Etc.
Median price per square foot would give more of a ball part, even recognizing the flaws with basic use of median and recognizing that not all markets have identical value.
this guy on cnbc saying that he was in south california and people were looking at homes. I believe him, I look at homes all the time when I go to school and back as well as when I go outside or look out the window… looking is easy buying and paying isn’t.
he said that people were looking to move up… aha right and even if true I doubt most of those overleveraged with 0 or negative equity could
You’re right - my girlfriend and I were out looking for rentals this last weekend, and passed by some newly developed subdivisions where we indeed saw people donning the “hard hats” and walking through model homes. There is a big difference between looking and buying, though. While there were many people looking, how does this translate into buyers? I think the tightened credit guidelines haven’t caught up with the wishful thinkers who are using up the homebuilders’ air conditioning on a sunny Sunday.
I have mentioned this before, but the credit tightening is hitting So Cal hard. Next door neighbor has had his home fall out of escrow twice in the last 3 months due to the “buyer’s” not being able to close the loan.
Then they weren’t really buyers. They were “wishers” and “I’m not going to be priced out forever’s.”
‘Why wouldn’t you buy now? Mortgage rates are still incredibly low and buyers are able to consider a range of inventory,’ says May Aston, president of the Manatee County Association of Realtors.”
CAN WE SAY “CRACK IS A HELL OF A DRUG’
How about this idiot (not you postman).
Interest rates being low, and credit standards being loose is the WORST time to buy a home. Buy when credit is tight and IR are high.
Why?
Because prices are going to be the lowest at that point. You can always refinance the loan when IR drop! You cannot drop the price when IR rise! That is vitally important in a market like FL, where everything centers around the price you paid for the home.
Again, you can refinance to a cheaper loan. You cannot record the purchase price as interest rates rise!
Amen Mike. I echo your sentiments.
“Joe Ward, who sells about 100 homes a year in Raleigh, has three houses that would sell if the buyers could unload their homes out of state. ‘When the market slowed down in spring and summer it was very obvious that the relocating buyer was going to hurt our market,’ he said. ‘It’s still the same.’”
Okay, I might be interested if they threw in shipping!
Geez
OT
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070323/blackstone_ipo_offering.html?.v=1
get 100,000 to 1 leverage and go w options on this
debt ball
Bloomberg says subprime crisis over as housing prices rebound.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=at4sBsEMJOrA&refer=home
Bad news — looks like everyone will permanently face a choice of 60% of income for housing (and 30% for health care) or never being able to own a home. Or not.
Words fail me on this one. I can only reply in acronyms:
NFW
UFB
Some editors at Boombug must be upside down on Florida condos, and trying to prop the market long enough to get out. Maybe Cramer gave them some pointers.
“‘It’s a weakening market,’ said economist Michael Helmar”
Than why is Bloomberg TV constantly reporting today that existing home sales are “surging”?
According to Bloomberg TV, the real estate party, “IS ON”.
Okay everybody, I was able to rip countrywide’s site and get all the info. Now you can go to http://countrywide-foreclosures.blogspot.com/ and track the houses from zillow or bird’s eye view. Countrywide is asking too much money for those REOs and you can see from zillow what the house was bought for (taken over). The pace of foreclosures for California and Florida is incredible. Following countrywide’s forecosures is a very good leading indicator of what’s to come. Buckle up. I would appreciate fellow bloggers out there to get the message out on this site, I will keep it up to date on a weekly basis. Does anyone here know blogspot good? I wrote a program which posted over 50 posts (every state) and don’t know if they are watching it for spam? Anyways, I think I will put this on it’s own server because it’s getting a lot of attention from people. Special thanks to Ben for making all this happen (this is my little way to contribute back!).
Go to foreclosures.com and you can see current foreclosure and BK listings by Zip code. They give street name but not number. I saw two in my old Sarasota neighborhood.
“The deal ‘put us in a position of having a house that’s value is $125,000 less than the mortgaged amount,’ Maryann Stefanik said.”
Oh well greedy bitc#, looks like you shouldn’t have invested in real estate, now should you. LOL No mercy for this fool.
This video is a must watch for people wanting to understand the implications of subprime:
http://www.grantspub.com/video/
Damn this bold is annoying…..
Been checking out place in my neighborhood again. Finally there are houses for sale under $300k. Two years ago the same place was $450k and “soon to be $600k.”
Friends just rented a 2BR/2BA condo from an “investor” (read:idiot) for $1000 a month - they were asking $1200 a month but decided to stuanch the blood loss I assume.
The apt complex where I live is offering $500 CASH to anyone who refers a renter, the building have higher vacancy than they have ever had. Looks like my predicition of immense compeititon from FB’s renting condos is coming true.
In October I told the property manager I would expect a rent decrease this year due to oversupply and she said fat chance. I’m betting it’s in the cards; and if they didn’t dislike me already, I’d stop by there for some friendly banter and see how it’s all playing out.
YEE HAW I fixed the BOLD. Computer degree finally paid off.
I don’t understand the mindset from the government, media, mostly everyone that says “everyone must own” and that “ownership is always good”. . .It’s obviously not always good.
What is wrong with saying “you can’t handle a mortgage”. . .If you can’t put 20% down and have an income you are better of renting.
Has anyone noticed how the Orlando SFH numbers seem to be doing a somewhat better than its nearby costal cities–Tampa, Daytona, Melbourne? Have the insurance hikes not affected Orlando as much because they are not directly on the coast?
Yes, I noticed this as well. Honestly, I think the FAR is cooking the numbers. If you compare like sized houses in a given zip code, you will see that asking prices are down. For example, in summer of 2005, a 1900-2000 sq. ft. house in the 32828 zip of Orlando would have an asking price of $300-310k. Now the asking price is closer to $270-280k. I’ve even seen some as low as $250k. So that’s at least 10% off 2005 numbers. It’s likely more due to the bidding wars that were going on back then.
“The IRS treats the shortfall as income so the borrower will not only be out of a house, but will owe income taxes on the difference. And it is taxed at the ordinary income rate, not the typically lower capital gains rate. ‘It adds insult to injury,’ says Bour, the mortgage broker.”
“It adds insult to stupidity,” says slowburn, from HBB
Man, we need to bring back debtor prisons.