Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For March 31, 2007
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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I was walking in the mountains yesterday when it hit me…
We live not so far from the citrus belt, in Central California, which runs like a clock, as long as the temps stay at around 30 degrees and no cooler.
This January, we along with most of California, endured a week of temps in the low 20’s, which decimated the orange crop on the trees, along with many other edibles we grow here.
Where we live, everything is native growth plants and aside from a few non native species we had planted, everything lived.
A few days after the cold week (exacerbated here, with zero precip, thus no snow) my wife and I went roadtrippin’ to Death Valley, San Diego and Los Angeles.
All over San Diego & Los Angeles, we saw the dead and the dying, in the form of non native plants.
Not all the plants died, but i’d guess 1/4 of the non native species that were vibrant and alive, weren’t, after the cold spell.
Mother Nature is trying to tell us something.
From the Palm Beach Post:
SEXY tn hse in Abacoa, MOTIVATED SELLER! Close To Everything
I wonder how motivated she actually is…
Free 2 Carat Diamond 3/2/2 granite kitchen
So that’s what you do with the engagement ring after the divorce!
Of course, what do you expect from a newspaper that has the following headline:
“Shooting Survivors little aid to police”
How can a townhouse be sexy? Does it come with a dungeon? This woman sounds like the epitome of trash.
Maybe it comes with a VIP room.
No more TD’s for you Bill.
No, I get it! It comes with a basement dungeon VIP area, complete with starving stripper chained to a pole. Now that’s CLASSY.
“Shooting Survivors little aid to police”
Talk about cities cutting back…
Shooting the Survivors…I guess that’s cheaper than calling for an ambulance.
OK, I was taken in on this one.
LOL - I guess I’m becomeing too radical!!
The survivors of the shooting couldn’t tell the police what happened.
Sigh.
I really wanted to read that the cops were actually finishing the job. Sick. What has the culture done to me.
paul
“Shooting survivors?” That HAD to be in Bakersplat.
Excellent find, thanks.
in nyc on abc ch 7 at llam sunday a special report
on helping to avoid foreclosure
the american dream or the american nightmare
was the title of the show
should be a nice watch on a sunday morning
At the check out counter today was a $3.99 booklet entitled, “Money Management for Dummies”. It was made w/the thinnest newsprint weight paper and was booklet size for minimum costs.
See! People knew this pain was coming.
I guess i’ll address the 800 pound Gorilla…
Where do people go, after they’ve been foreclosed on?
Busted credit, 28 Cents in the bank.
What Next?
mom and dad
what if you are mom and dad?
My guess: They spend a few years as renters, before getting recycled as subprime borrowers…
Who is going to rent to them? Last I checked you needed $$$ (first, last, deposit), w-2s, and good credit to rent. It’s a lot harder than “buying.”
Maybe people will plan their foreclosures. They will do a cash out refi one more time, take that money to the new landlord while they still have good credit, and then stop paying the mortgage. EXCEPT these were the same people buying with loans they didn’t understand and 0% down at the worst possible time. They clearly do not have the ability to plan and lack forethought.
Looks like mom and dad are going to have house guests.
Don’t you get few months before they force you out of foreclosed homes? Plenty of time to build up cash reserves, since their PITI was significantly more than any going rent [which will probably fall as we've been discussing in this blog].
In Austin,TX after the dotbust, apartments were offering free moving and at least one or two months of free rent.
Yeah, but then you have a bad blemish on your credit, don’t you?
What?
They are suddenly going to be able to do things that make sense financially, after disregarding it, until now?
I’ll have to bet on the No-Pass Line (strictly a mental wager)
“Don’t you get few months before they force you out of foreclosed homes? Plenty of time to build up cash reserves,”
These people don’t know what a cash reserve is. If they are about to be foreclosed on, do you really think they are putting money away? They stop paying the mortgage and have more money for pedicures, lyposuction, golf clubs, lattes and bags made by Coach.
Many of these people will be broke every day of their lives.
I see rents coming down. I see the skipping of first, last, deposit, etc. I even see the first month’s rent thrown in for three, in some cases.
That’s because I see a huge glut of houses with mortgages that need to be financed.
This is not new; none of this is.
three = free
Where is this?
Who is going to rent to them? Last I checked you needed $$$ (first, last, deposit), w-2s, and good credit to rent.
Wow, who doesn’t love irony?
“Dude why are you throwing money away on that mortgage? You should be saving your money so you can start renting!”
Section 8.
Perhaps the subsidized ghettos of 2008 to 2020 will be single family homes and condominium complexes while high end apartment complexes will have better quality people living in them and not subsidized.
I think that’s already been what’s happened, certainly in the past year or two.
After all, how many of HBB’ers are renters with high FICO scores, plenty of cash and good jobs?
Our landlord LOVES us. Been a LL for a few decades and said we were his favorite tenants. Why? Because the trend has been reversed over the 2001-2006 period. Good credit/financially responsible buyers are out of the RE market and have become renters. Former renters (no money, bad credit, history of NSF checks, etc.) have all jumped into the purchase market with Monopoly Money mortgages.
During the Great Depression they lived in “Hoovervilles”. I wonder if this time they’ll be called “Bushvilles”.
The more prosperous will be living in…
Hummervilles
Here’s a memory of the depression, from the Great Book “Ten Lost Years”, an oral history, ala Studs Terkel.
An amazing collection of stories of how Canadians endured, written by Barry Broadfoot.
He roamed across Canada in the early 1970’s, knocking on doors and asking people of the “right age”, their memories?
A collection of hundreds of bite sized morsels await~
http://www.amazon.com/Ten-Lost-Years-1929-1939-Depression/dp/0771016522
You’re right, people didn’t have cars during the Great Depression. A car is better than a tent!
Not really.
A miserable place to be, when the temps swing high and low, sweet chariot…
I did not see this previously posted so:
Jim Rogers Likes Agricultural Commodities; Sees U.S. Recession March 29 (Bloomberg)
Video: Lengthy interview
http://tinyurl.com/fsbxm
I like them too. Corn and alternative energy probably the next bubble.
I have some friends that work at large hedge funds in New York. When hiring, they always ask about the prospective employee’s investment ideas. Two ideas that were shot down and laughed at in years past - Apple (before the iPod craze, an applicant told them that the iPod was going to be the next big thing and the hedge fund responded with a rejection letter) and corn (this was around late summer/early fall 2005).
People here really give the Wall Street types WAY too much credit.
A buddy of mine has 30 acres of farmland in Iowa and over 100 acres of timber there. The farmland raises corn. I think that is a smart investment by him. His not-so-smart investments are two condos in Florida and he’s also got a beach view house in Jamaica. That Iowa farmland and timber will save his hide.
I recommend folks listen to the 3rd hour broadcast if they have time. Good discussion on gov’t manipulation/inflation.
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm
http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2007/3413carbon_swindle.html
The so-called “carbon trade” swindle touted by Al Gore [and his banker friends] is the next big bubble.
More on carbon-trading swindle.
Worst Oil-Price Speculators Democrats Whom Denounced in 2006, Will Run Carbon Trading Demanded by Al Gore
March 23, 2007 (EIRNS)—In May and June 2006, the Senate Democratic Policy Committee (SDPC) held two hearings on the role of speculation in driving the prices of oil and gasoline into the stratosphere. The Senators, led by Carl Levin, Dianne Feinstein, and Byron Dorgan, pinpointed the role of the all-electronic commodity futures exchange called ICE, InterContinental Exchange, for driving the oil/gas price speculation.
As Senator Levin charged, they found that futures speculation on the ICE was the driver in speculators adding $20-25 to the price of every barrel of oil, causing hardship to industry and households, and suffering to underdeveloped nations.
Now, the people who run ICE will run the “carbon emissions trading” demanded by Al Gore and his backers under color of the global warming hoax.
The Senators’ report, “The Role of Market Speculation in Rising Oil and Gas Prices,” is still on Sen. Levin’s website.
The ICE, the testimony to the Senators established, was created in 2000 by international banks led by Goldman Sachs, and oil companies led by British Petroleum and Royal Dutch Shell. The ICE had bought the International Petroleum Exchange in London, and had taken domination of oil and gas futures trading, completely unregulated, “opaque” electronic trading with no records kept of the trades. Furthermore, the ICE, though headquartered in Atlanta, was juridically located in London. “No-action letters” between the Bank of England and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, protected the ICE from any form of regulation or record-keeping required by American agencies. ICE was literally a British “offshore financial center,” though located in Atlanta.
“Put a Cop Back on the Beat” was the subtitle of the Democrats’ report, which called for forcing regulation of the criminal speculation on the ICE.
Now, who is in charge of the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) and its parent, the London Climate Exchange (LCX); who is to be in charge of the carbon-offset trading which Al Gore demands and some Democratic Congressional leaders are energetically promoting? The principals of ICE!
Most particularly, ICE founding partner and board member Richard L. Sandor, runs both CCX and LCX, and is the “inventor” of carbon swaps and carbon-offset derivatives trading. Goldman Sachs, largest share-owner of CCX, and second largest of ICE, put Al Gore himself into the hedge fund field, when in 2003, David Blood, formerly CEO of Goldman Sachs Assets Management, formed General Investment Management Plc with Gore—Blood and Gore, and with two other former Goldman Sachs officers.
And the ICE on March 22 launched a bid to buy the Chicago Board of Trade.
Those Democratic leaders may have had seven years to forget who Al Gore is, and what he did to President Bill Clinton, and to the Democratic Party in 2000. But only 10 months have passed since they investigated and blasted the wild and untraceable speculation on ICE for forcing up oil and gas prices $20 and more a barrel. Are they now cheering for the same people to run the speculation in carbon emission rights, and push up the price of electricity by $50 a megawatt-hour?
When is a swindle by international banks and global oil companies not a swindle? When it’s promoted by Al Gore and the hoax of global warming?
Don’t think of Mother Nature in a political vein…
“Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.”
Samuel Clemens
Great quote.
The most recent post at “Calculated Risk” deals with the announcement by M&T Bank (MTB) after the close Friday (yesterday) that they are taking a significant write down on “Alt A loans.” This could be big, as it is strong evidence that the bad loan situation is spreading beyond subprime. M&T is based in NY and evidently, Warren Buffet has a siginificant stake, so it was not expected to be a big risk taking. Maybe it is just the first to admit the problem, as this is an announcment ahead of a share holder meeting.
As we continue to connect the dots from subprime to midprime, take a look at last night’s press release from Fulton Financial (fult). Seems its Resource Bank subsidiary is being forced to buy back first and second loans that were sold into the secondary market because the borrowers were defaulting early in the payment cycle. These early payment defaults are a common snafu in the subprime slime, but here’s the twist:
For Fulton these 80/20 loans, otherwise known as mortgages with zero down payment, appear to be Alt-A, with credit scores above 620. The company says that in recent months Resource “has experienced an increase” in the rate of early payment defaults “primarily related to one specific product sold to one specific investor.” While the total number of loans isn’t significant, with Fulton taking a pre-tax loss of $5.5 million against its total assets of $15 billion, the trickle-up effect seems to be underway.
Good sleuthing jmf…
Sounds just a little creaky, this financial system of ours.
Early payment default = Fraud
Here is some more info on the M&T story:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&sid=a21ui1oYB5TA&refer=home
Thanks for the link. That just happens to be my bank. What I get from reading the article is that they missed their earnings target by about .30 a share because they can’t sell almost $1B of Alt-A loans. But they think those loans still have value, and intend to write more…?
M&T said it plans to keep $883 million of Alt-A home loans instead of selling them because management believes the bids don’t reflect their value.
“We remain very committed to the business of providing residential mortgage loans to our customers and will continue to originate non-agency mortgage loans, albeit at modified standards,” said Robert Wilmers, chief executive officer, in the statement.
I had been looking into some of the old-as-dirt Main Line banking institutions (their customers don’t need shady loans) to park my money. Well I guess it’s time to do more than look.
It doesn’t appear that M&T is on the verge of failing, but this news doesn’t exactly make me feel warm and fuzzy inside.
M&T said it plans to keep $883 million of Alt-A home loans instead of selling them because management believes the bids don’t reflect their value
This sounds awfully close to the “well, I’m not going to GIVE IT AWAY” mentality we have seen in the denial phase here with the FB’s. We all know how this is going to end, don’t we?
I am going to Phoenix week after next to look at some property…Can anyone from AZ share any knowledge about this area; Palm Valley in the Goodyear, Avondale Litchfield Park
Are you looking for land or homes? I think you are bit early in the game. Here in Scottsdale, I have seen asking prices drop about 25% since fourth quarter (specifically a neighborhood a started looking at buying in last November). Still the homes I am looking at (on the higher end) still have ridiculous asking prices, like $1.2mil for a home clearly worth about $400,000 to $450,000. So there is a ways to go around here.
I think this local Phoenix economy is at least 20% based on R.E., so I expect quite a few foreclosures in the next 24 months or so. Looking at lots of tax returns I am doing for either good-sized builders or their employees. Clearly the income levels have gone down from 2003-2005 to 2006. After speaking to some of them, I expect lots of hurt in 2007. So deals will be found everywhere.
Credit above 660 with stable employment and a down payment will rule the day. Don’t be afraid to lowball. Get the r.e. agents on the hook psychologically by jumping through all the prequal hoops, acting like you are gonna pay the inflated price(s), then pull the rug out from under, by lowballing when you sit down to write up an offer… Remember those idiot, wanna-be professionals are starving right now. Even the ones with really nice cars are leveraged to the hilt and usually feeding multiple negative-cashflow rental monsters.
That area is the west side. Houses are less expensive than the other parts. I notice that the temperatures on that side are usually about 5 degrees or more hotter than other parts of Phoenix. I live southeast of South Mountain in Ahwatukee. Here the temperatures are usually hotter than the rest of the valley except for the west side like Avondale. It’s “cooler” in older parts of Phoenix near Camelback and nortward into Glendale. I haven’t been to Peoria, but it is supposed to be a step above Glendale, and more expensive, kind of like Scottsdale is relative to Tempe.
The west side is building up, now having the Cardinals football stadium, the Coyotes hockey arena, things like that.
Thank You Chris & Bill…..Anybody Else ???
If I figured it would make a difference I’d try to talk you out of it. Going from Sac. to PHX seems like jumping out of the pot into the fire to me.
Avondale has very large developments with many many houses for sale. Some communities seem to be flipper centrals. Use Realtor.com to scan for properties and note which ones seem to pop up a lot. My opinion, don’t buy yet.
Agree with other posters that prices are still going down. Central Phoenix and old Scottsdale and Tempe will hold value better than most outlying areas, but this does not apply to condos. West Valley may do all right - in the next bubble. Some beautiful properties at the base of South Mountain.
Thanks everyone….
Thanks Bill,
We bank there and will be watching this closely.
Can anyone review how I go about determining individual banks exposure to real estate?
Spitting Image - Madness sing Our House spoof
has the potential to become a bubble hym….
plus
china and its region / economist
including some comments on the sanctions
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/
Our House classic gets more classic!
” Local media reported that various foreign firms were found in March to be turning out shoddy goods which posed threats to human use. The firms include KFC, whose sauces are accused of containing cancer-causing Sudan-1, SK-II, whose cosmetic products reportedly have hazardous contents and Johnson & Johnson’s, whose baby lotion products were found to be problematic.
Despite strenuous efforts to return to normal, the firms have found their popularity decline greatly in less than one month.
A report by the China Social Investigation Institute, released Sunday, said that 21 percent of respondents in a survey will not buy products yielded by these firms, 27 percent will and 52 percent are not sure. …”
People’s daily on line
http://tinyurl.com/27djz9
It is difficult to build a brand up, it is easy to tear down. First step in the China trade war?
and
China’s Auto Industry Takes On the World
Mainland-built Rovers and BMWs, plus new model blitzes at home and expansion plans abroad, showcase the planetary aspirations of Chinese carmakers…
“The weak foundation of the Chinese car industry still makes it difficult for China to produce a car of decent quality and safety level,” cautions Beijing-based auto analyst Jia Xinguang.
Indeed, even succeeding at home is a challenge in the highly competitive, cutthroat Chinese auto market. So Nanjing Auto has asked Beijing for loans and subsidies totaling close to $400 million to fund its big plans to sell the Rover in China and overseas. Whether or not Beijing provides that major handout, though, MG Rovers will soon be tooling the roads of China. ”
http://tinyurl.com/2nloff
Gone Fishing - Have a good week all
KFC got in trouble a year or so ago because the chickens it served were being stomped to death and otherwise hideously killed by their provider–something KFC had denied for years till PETA caught in on film and it made the evening news. KFC pretended to be shocked, and terminated its contract with its provider. A immoral company cannot transform into a beacon any more than a filthy restaurant, cited for health code violations, can clean up its act. The people at the top set the standards, and if they have none, none can be acquired from thin air.
I love fried chicken, but KFC is awful. Where my family lives a Church’s Chicken moved in about a year ago. It put 3 KFCs in the area out of business in 6 months.
Really?
Churches here is bland and fowl.
And they tend to short you on the number of pieces.
paul
“Church’s is bland and fowl”
Freudian slip? Think you meant “foul”, I hope!
Anyway, it gave me pause…
Church’s here, too, was always infinitely better than KFC, and Popeye’s makes KFC look really bad. I don’t know if any of this is safe to consume.
“Thousands of tired, nerve-shaken, over-civilized people are beginning to find out that going to the mountain is going home; that wildness is necessity; that mountain parks and reservations are useful not only as fountains of timber and irrigating rivers, but as fountains of life.”
John Muir
spooky synchronicity….just spent the last three days tromping around in the snow above 7000ft - in King’s Canyon/Sierra National Park, which borders the John Muir Wilderness…..
…couldn’t have put the sentiment better myself.
In other news, house prices in the Three Rivers, CA area run from 150K - 450K, according to the local rag. Lots of ‘for sale’ signs around - saw 4 or 5 ourselves, and this in an area with a population of less than 10,000. Most jobs there seem to be either for Eddison Power, or tourist based, so I’d hazard a guess that a recession would really do a number on their economy.
Beautiful part of the world, though.
I can walk up to 10,000 feet, with a 50 pound pack, in just a few days, from my back door.
This ability might prove to be of more value, than anything else.
“I can walk up to 10,000 feet, with a 50 pound pack, in just a few days…”
Whoa. It takes you a few days to walk 10,000 feet. You need to get more exercise.
Would you mind carrying me? LOL
The journey to 10,000 feet begins with your very first step.
Walking is great exercise.
Easy on the body, compared to most activities.
For heaven’s sake, aladinsane. STOP TELLING PEOPLE!!!!
How many out there are getting cold calls from mortgage companies on their cell phone from other parts of the country. I’ve had two this past week; one from Iowa and one from Texas. And I am a renter.
The ding dong that calls me just leaves a recorded message. Some guy in California actually sued some of these guys and won.
Same here. Also calls to refinance my home. I just hang up on the dumbasses, as I’ve gotten tired of telling them that I rent the home, not own it.
(And if the owner i’m renting from does default on his mortgage, whoopee f*cking do. The security deposit on this place was only $1K. Hell, that was cheaper than the deposit on my last apartment! Also, there’s no shortage of rentals in Las Vegas)
End of the line — 2 months behind on rent, 459 FICO, and wife drops out of college. Now, Serin is begging readers for money; it’s hellaciously hellarious:
Jim Says: I’ll donate $40 if you do the following:
Dress up in an orange prison jumpsuit, hold a large, hand-written sign that clearly says “IT’S ALL GOOD,” take a clear picture showing your face and the sign, and post it online.
Serin responds: I will do the jump suit stunt for $40 but I don’t have one handy…. can I substitute it for something else?
http://www.iamfacingforeclosure.com/189/cashcall-says-220-by-12pm-tomorrow-or-else-donation/#comments
He begged enough to keep Vito from Cash Call away for a month.
I knew with time Casey was going to take the wife down
with him . Here you have 2 adults that could work ripping off the landlord they rent from now . Anybody that gives Casey a dime is s-t-u-p-i-d , (he should be in jail ). Casey is a crook that got cash back deals from sellers . The lenders are going to lose alot of money regarding Casey and his fraud . The part that makes me sick is that I know darn well that there are alot of people like Casey who got sub-prime loans with cash backs that are heading down the same path of Bk who will cry victim and ask for a bailout . It’s a sick mess .
Man it is an ugly scene over at his blog today - he’s been reduced to panhandling for Paypal donations. Things are really going downhill fast for the poster boy of f’ed borrowers.
Casey is not a FB really ,he is a crook . Any borrowers that engaged in fraud with cash-backs was a big crook .All cheats/crooks are greedy because they want something for nothing .These con artist types keep trying to find suckers to bail them out when their crimes don’t work as they planned .
Casey is the poster boy for crooks and con artists during the RE boom . Many FB’s are just like him .
Casey is the Eddie the Eagle, for our time.
Eddie was just out for a lark, though.
Nobody got hurt.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eddie_‘the_Eagle’_Edwards
Let me know when he starts pimping the wife.
another tg?
The subprime alligator bites harder …
The Battle for a Mortgage
From the NYTimes
AS homeowners across the country have dealt with the declining values of their houses and their ballooning mortgage payments, most New Yorkers seem to believe that the market here doesn’t play by the same rules.
But in recent weeks, a growing number of New Yorkers, often with six-figure salaries and reasonably good credit, have begun to find that mortgages are harder to get as lenders try to stem losses from loans to the weakest, or subprime, borrowers.
While mortgage brokers insist that most buyers in New York can still close deals, they also warn that people with any red flags on their mortgage applications will face delays and will pay higher fees. Potential problems include low credit scores or high credit-card balances or listing a suspiciously high salary for a given job.
“You’re going to pay the piper for any little mistake,” said Melissa Cohn, the president of Manhattan Mortgage Inc. She said her brokers — who last year arranged more than $3 billion in mortgages, mainly in New York City — were spending twice as much time on each application as they did a month ago because of new lending requirements, and she expects the situation only to get worse.
“The impact is going to be much greater as banks demand that people have clean credit to get the best mortgages,” she said.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/01/realestate/01cov.html
Wow. A real milestone that this is actually appearing in what’s usually a shill-estate section. The NY Daily News had the story behind this story though, in an article about how foreclosures in the city are spiking (especially in lower income names) and on track to more than double since 2004…
In 2005, before we got housing religion, we were still looking at local real estate. Crappy houses in Jersey City and Harrison were going for $350,000. The destruction in this area is going to be massive.
Long Island is now known as the Isle of Denial. All the boroughs (all of them) will get hit with the mackerel to the mind.
And this is a big deal?
How about mortgage underwriting circa 1994: six months of delays, questions, and issues, and that is with me getting in a car and driving out to their location to provide everything they asked for immediately (highly motivated, wife pregnant).
“Any little mistake?” I was putting down 40%, we had been in the same middle class jobs for years, and had lived in the same neighborhood for years. We had never had a credit card balance, and had paid off our student loans, the only debts we had ever had.
Imagine what a return to those days would be like.
“Imagine what a return to those days would be like. ”
Appropriate?
Local home sales contrast with U.S. trend
Reports of a slowdown in the real estate market may be true somewhere, but not in central Maine.
That is the word from most real-estate agents in the region, and for the most part, they have the numbers to back them.
“We are still in a decent market,” said Don Plourde of Coldwell Banker Plourde Real Estate in Waterville. “I tell people that the only people we are fighting is the media.”
Franklin County led the pack with the median sale price jumping from $119,000 to $135,000, a 13.45 percent rise. In Kennebec and Waldo counties, sale prices increased 4.8 percent and 6.2 percent respectively.
The only decrease occurred in Somerset County, where the median sale price dropped 28.3 percent, from $109,900 to $78,750 based on sales of 74 homes.
“I have to say, everyone always wants to see it better,” Chadbourne said, “but things could be a lot worse. Our economy is never going to be what it is in other parts of the country. That is just part of living in Maine. But we get by, and people tend to be doing fairly well.”
http://tinyurl.com/2gpl5v
Maine craigslist today 42 “reduced” and 29 “motivated” ads.
This is inventory for single family homes listed at $700,000 or more in Portland, Cumberland, Falmouth and North Yarmouth.
34 9/6/2005
42 9/19/2005
41 9/29/2005
39 11/3/2005
35 12/5/2005
35 1/3/2006
29 2/2/2006
33 3/3/2006
41 4/4/2006
38 6/4/2006
51 7/22/2006
48 9/9/2006
41 11/5/2006
36 12/15/2006
28 12/30/2006
27 2/2/2007
29 3/2/2007
Single family home inventory in Portland, Falmouth, North Yarmouth and Cumberland:
352 9/6/2005
394 9/19/2005
400 9/29/2005
425 11/3/2005
406 12/5/2005
352 1/3/2006
344 2/2/2006
345 3/3/2006
351 4/4/2006
409 6/4/2006
477 7/22/2006
467 9/9/2006
437 11/5/2006
355 12/15/2006
311 12/30/2006
269 2/2/2007
289 3/2/2007
The upper end is still selling well - driven almost soley by equity bandits from all over the U.S.
At the lower end, it’s a little slower.
Portland Mainer:
I was wondering if that area is like here in that much of the inventory doesn’t even come on until after April break. Do you expect those numbers to go up soon?
Yes, maybe a little. But I think demand is sytonger this year than last. We seem to benefit from the unaffordable prices elsewhere.
It’s different here in Canada… (U.S. real estate investers, take note!)
———————————————————————————-
Housing market off to strong start in 2007
Eric Beauchesne
CanWest News Service
Thursday, March 29, 2007
(AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
OTTAWA — Canada’s housing market has gotten off to a hotter-than-expected start this year, says a major real estate firm, which reported double-digit-percentage increases in prices for all major types of housing from a year earlier.
…
The housing bust in the U.S., resulting in a meltdown in the subprime-mortgage market which the Federal Reserve warns could last two years, is also blamed for eroding consumer and business confidence in what is also Canada’s largest export market.
Soper, in an interview, said that the problems in the U.S. housing market should not have any direct impact on Canada’s housing market.
There are both economic and structural differences in the two markets, he said.
Among other things, interest rates increased more and to higher levels in the U.S. than in Canada and that had a greater impact on Americans who are carrying more debt than Canadians, he said. Further, mortgage lending in the U.S. was much more aggressive and more risky than here.
“The concern is a broader one in Canada that a further softening and outright collapse of the American housing market could be one of the major triggers to an American recession,” he said. “With our largest trading partner in full-blown economic retreat all bets are off, and not just for our housing market, but for jobs, our tax levels, and everything else.”
http://www.canada.com/globaltv/national/story.html?id=943c7a8a-0652-4a9c-b586-fde15bcd6016
I still say Toronto was the most out of control housing city I’ve seen. The difference between 1995 and 2006 floored me. Oh, Canada, you will not escape with your Maple Leaf unblemished.
so the export toronto region isn’t going to be hurt by a slowdow in exports to the US, a rising loonie and their own housing issues?
I bet not.
The CIC appears to be drawing a political battle line in the subprime bailout debate. This will work well for the right-leaning party’s presidential candidates, who have not stumbled all over themselves to serve up subprime bailout proposals as the left-leaning party’s candidates all have done. Too bad for the latter-mentioned party that subprime borrowers probably vote at much lower percentages than the taxpayers who would be asked to fork over bailout money.
———————————————————————————
Sweeping mortgage bailout unlikely
Plans floated so far suggest most in danger of foreclosure won’t get government help.
By Tom Petruno and E. Scott Reckard
Times Staff Writers
Posted March 30 2007
Borrowers, don’t hold your breath for a bailout.
As mortgage delinquencies soar, many consumer advocates and political leaders are calling on government to help what may ultimately be millions of homeowners facing foreclosure.
But the modest federal and state aid proposals advanced so far suggest that most people struggling with onerous loan payments are unlikely to get government assistance.
The Bush administration has ruled out a blanket program to help homeowners stave off foreclosure, reasoning that it’s “not an appropriate role for the federal government,” White House spokesman Tony Fratto said.
BINGO! Take a hint, blue state candidates! You may lose the election on this very issue…
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/local/la-fi-bailout30mar30,0,4901645.story?coll=sfla-business-headlines
This would be the most massive WELFARE program of all time. It’s not a bailout. It is WELFARE.
the most massive welfare program of all time is the fractional reserve lending system/power to create money and the subsquent backstop the banking system gets when the moral hazard rears it’s ulgy head.
“BINGO! Take a hint, blue state candidates! You may lose the election on this very issue…”
by the time the election rolls around, there are going to be tons of f’ed borrowers pissed off. imagine the republican candidate that says “take your medicine.” it’s more likely that at the very least, if there is no bailout, the voters will favor the democrats who will at least offer sympathy.
Those “Times Staff Writers” are useless. They’ve denied the bubble all the way up, and they’ll be chasing the consequences all the way down.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-7259.htm
This article has an interesting chart on past RE slowdowns and Recessions. Recession on the way? Lots of signs point to one.
For all of the California Central Coast Bubble Heads out there … I have started a new blog that can provide a forum for the very specific issues of San Luis Obispo and northern Santa Barbara counties.
http://centralcoasthousingbubble.blogspot.com/
It will likely be more of a forum than a true blog because I may only be able to post a couple times per week. I hope you find it useful.
Thanks Ben for providing the King of All Blogs and being the most useful source of financial discussion in the 21st Century (money is on the way)!
-SLO Bear
SLO-B, cool, I’ll check it out.
Excellent cartoon about sub-prime lending
This Modern World
Looks like Tom Tommorrow gets the award for writing the first Public Service Announcement for the 1996-2006 RE debacle.
April is here in California:
House payment Apr 1 (with reset?)
Income tax Apr 15
Property Tax Apr 30
House payment May 1 (with reset?)
record gas prices, almost $4 in San Fran
brutal
OK, I misread the article when I said NM was the most dangerous state to live. The article says it’s 1. NV; 2. NM; 3. AZ; 4. MD; 5. TN
DC was excluded from the analysis.
Sorry about that.
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/102714/The-Most-Dangerous-American-States
Clearly, if one was to move based upon these numbers, one would have a cranial-rectal inversion.
To see the light, and breateh fresher air, one should consider CITIES.
Otherwise, why would alaska rank so high above new yawk and new joisy.
I bet North Dakota doesn’t even have any cities,
Paul
The context of the comment was a thread a few days ago about NM, nothing more than that.
We’ve been living in a financial version of this, for some time now…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bizarro