“Bowing To The New Reality”
The Hartford Courant reports from Connecticut. “The Southington homeowners took a gamble on their housing purchase, believing they would be in the three-bedroom home for years and, therefore, taking out a home equity loan to make some improvements. The couple, hoping to avoid foreclosure, are now listing their house for sale.”
“‘It looks like they are going to lose about $18,000 on their house,’ said Tom Abbate, an agent in Middletown, who is handling the listing, which will be about $225,000. ‘They are trying to avoid foreclosure and saying, ‘What do I do?’”
“During the last six months of 2006, foreclosures rose sharply in Connecticut - jumping about 36 percent, compared with the same time a year earlier.”
“Cheryl Keithan, a foreclosure expert, said the impact of foreclosures on the housing market is only going to worsen in the next six months because foreclosure resolutions can take months to finalize.”
“‘The pipeline is filling up for me,’ said Keithan, who has handled foreclosures for the past 14 years. ‘Foreclosures dropped significantly in 2004 and 2005, but by the end of last year it started picking up again. By summer, you are going to see a lot of these listings, and that is only going to further slow down the market.’”
“Michael Menatian, president of a mortgage brokerage, said he is handling more mortgages for clients who are buying foreclosure properties.”
“‘I’d say there are two or three a month, and two years ago, that was unheard of,’ Menatian said. ‘And these are not distressed properties. These are $400,000 or $500,000 houses, and they are getting them at a discount because the owners used a product or program that enabled them to buy a house when they probably shouldn’t have because they couldn’t really afford it.’”
The Providence Journal from Rhode Island. “For real estate agents like Edward Manfredi, the subprime mortgage foreclosure crisis means that business is booming. Manfredi works for a Warwick real estate firm that specializes in (bank owned) properties.”
“Mark Reo is a builder, property manager, landlord, and foreclosure consultant. Reo said he has purchased six REO properties recently, but would like to start buying them ‘in groups of 10 or 15′ directly from banks. ‘A lot of these banks now … they have 300 REOs instead of 30. … I’m here to help them,’ Reo said. Because the banks want to reduce their REO inventory, Reo believes they are willing to negotiate on price.”
“‘I can suggest almost anything and I have their ear,’ he said. ‘Because it’s a big, big problem.’”
The Journal News from New York. “With lowered expectations, John and Cynthia Vergilii have put their ranch-style house in Cold Spring back on the market. The asking price, $550,000, is $100,000 lower than what they tried to sell it for about 1 1/2 years ago, Cynthia Vergilii said.”
“‘I’m one of those people with an enormous amount of faith,’ Vergilii said. ‘I’m confident we’ll sell it.’”
“Paul Lee of Nanuet said he and his fiancee looked for a place in Rockland County for more than a year. Lee said he hasn’t seen prices drop far enough to suit him. The couple will have to budget carefully to keep their new home, he said.”
The New York Times. “As homeowners across the country have dealt with the declining values of their houses and their ballooning mortgage payments, most New Yorkers seem to believe that the market here doesn’t play by the same rules.”
“But in recent weeks, a growing number of New Yorkers, often with six-figure salaries and reasonably good credit, have begun to find that mortgages are harder to get as lenders try to stem losses from loans to the weakest, or subprime, borrowers.”
“Mortgage brokers…warn that people with any red flags on their mortgage applications will face delays and will pay higher fees. ‘You’re going to pay the piper for any little mistake,’ said Melissa Cohn, the president of Manhattan Mortgage Inc. She said her brokers were spending twice as much time on each application as they did a month ago because of new lending requirements, and she expects the situation only to get worse.”
“‘The impact is going to be much greater as banks demand that people have clean credit to get the best mortgages,’ she said.”
“Buyers like Lee and Kimberly Au had to adjust their expectations. The Aus wanted to buy a one- or two-bedroom condominium costing $800,000 to $1.25 million at the Atelier on West 42nd Stree. But they quickly learned that they could no longer get 100 percent financing, even though Dr. Au makes more than $700,000 a year as a surgeon.”
“Eric Eisenberg, the mortgage broker handling the deal, said that even though the Aus put up more cash, the transaction was far more difficult to close than it once would have been.”
“‘About three weeks ago, I would have gotten this done by snapping my fingers,’ said Mr. Eisenberg. ‘Now it’s a very lengthy and time-consuming process where every bit of paperwork has to be done to the T. The guidelines are literally changing every hour.’”
“The Aus tried to tap into the equity in their four-bedroom house in Honolulu or their rental property at Haiku Plantation nearby in Kaneohe, but banks refused to refinance or to lend on these investments.”
“The couple are using Ms. Au’s credit score, which falls in the Alt-A category, to qualify for a 7.5 percent first mortgage and an 8.5 percent second mortgage. ‘We have a lot of our money tied up in real estate in Hawaii,’ she said. ‘I knew we had to find something quick.’”
The News Journal from Delaware. “For now, the party is over for vacation property owners at the Delaware beaches, where house prices in some communities at Washington’s summer playground nearly tripled from 2000 to 2005.”
“‘The market at the beach has died,’ said Scott Gaston of Dover, an investor who is selling a Rehoboth Beach house he bought in foreclosure in January. Already, he has lowered the price.”
“From Lewes to Dewey Beach, average sale prices for single-family homes last year declined for the first time since 2000, according to MLS data provided by the Sussex County Association of Realtors. Prices in the communities closest to the ocean dropped 5 percent from 2005 to 2006.”
“Bowing to the new reality, sellers, from home builders to owners of existing homes, are throwing in incentives. Along with the bricks and mortar, how about a trip to Bermuda?”
“‘You’re going to see people doing everything. We’re talking cars, vacations, boats, anything that will make people buy it,’ said Jack Corrozi, managing member of Corrozi Builders in Newport.”
“While real estate agents and developers tend to be perennially optimistic, even some of the sunniest are nervous about the spring season. ‘I’m pessimistic,’ said Trevor Gouert, an affiliate broker in Lewes. ‘I tell my owners: Hold on to your property if you can. Now is not the time to sell.’”
“Brett Reilly doesn’t need to be told that. For nearly a year, Reilly, a chief executive with Tapa Homes in Dagsboro, has been trying to sell a manufactured house his company put up on a lot in Rehoboth Beach. The price has been dropped 11 percent from $259,000 to $230,000. Now, with a monthly carrying cost of $800 to $900 a month, Tapa is eager to deal.”
“‘We want that thing gone,’ Reilly said.”
“Average sale prices of a single-family home from 2000 to 2005 nearly tripled in some oceanside communities. The average sale price of a home in the Lewes-Rehoboth Beach-Dewey Beach area, for example, rose from $426,170 to a peak of $1.23 million in 2005.”
“‘A lot of people thought there was no end to it. But there’s always an end,’ Corrozi said.”
“Inventories have climbed. The number of homes that came on the market in some beach communities in 2006 were four times the level at the beginning of the boom in 2000.”
“Robert Harman, president of the Sussex County Association of Realtors, blames the slowdown on overbuilding. For the first time, the nation’s largest home builders, such as Lennar Corp. of Miami, Fla., and Centex Corp. of Dallas, Texas, entered the market, Harman said.”
“‘They anticipated a great wave of buyers that didn’t come,’ Harman said.”
“The old adage that it was a good investment to buy beach property ‘because they’re not making more of it’ proved not to be true in the case of the Delaware shore. The vacation home market simply expanded inland to the west and north.”
“New-home communities miles from the water were given salty names, such as ‘Sandbar Village.’ ‘There’s more woods than bay,” said Pat Campbell-White, a broker in Rehoboth Beach.”
I think we missed the obvious this time…
The next bubble? The Great Foreclosure Bubble.
http://getforeclosures.blogspot.com/
Ah but herein may lie rub (of preforeclosures):
Because an auction is risky and an REO is more costly and time-consuming, some experts recommend buying a home in pre-foreclosure. … You offer a price that’s less than market value but more than the amount owed on the bank loan. ”
Problem is for many bubble houses, anything more than the amt owed on the loan could be way more than mkt value. How to get around this…?
The problem is that market value is less than what’s owed on the house, at least in most of the houses that I watch here in Sandy Eggo anyway. I see more homes now going to the final stage, REOs. The REOs are mostly priced with a 20% haircut right off the bat. I expect that’s because the 2nd is toast after it becomes bank owned. Even then most of the REOs are sit for a long time on the market and have multiple price reductions before they sell.
if you check most property recordings, you’ll find that typically 1st and 2nd loans totalling 100% LTV are generally made by the same lender.
From the blogspot article that Ben linked:
“After all, there will be more than 1 million foreclosures over the next two years, according to the National Association of Realtors. A house in foreclosure might well offer a great deal.”
I can attest to that. We paid $69/sq ft under air, which we bought from a bank 2005. And we back to the private golf course in our gated community. Its replacement cost for insurance purposes is about 50% higher.
Have patience, and be ready to move quickly when you find the right one, and you too can similarly benefit.
I doubt that I would buy a foreclosure. As one of the posters in here with longtime experience pointed out, a lot of foreclosures have bad juju. Keep in mind, these have probably been inhabited for some time by irresponsible people of the sort who didn’t have time or money for proper upkeep. Rather, I’ll buy the “collateral damage” - well-kept homes that have to set their prices realistically due to the glut of inventory, including foreclosures, and dearth of credit-worthy buyers.
I pretty much with you on the bad juju.Some of these foreclosures are going to take a lot of money, time and trouble to make them habitable and all the trouble doesn’t seem to be priced into the equation.
Bad juju? Is that like bad Kharma?
I said “the right one.” Ours had good bones according to the home inspector, and was immediately habitable but yucky. We have indeed put money into it for renovations, but our total expenditure is still less than comparable, kept-up homes that are on the market here today.
Don’t pass up a house just because it’s a foreclosure sale.
You all should just forget about foreclosures for a while yet.
Even if you get them at a 20% haircut, the market is still dropping.
I went to an auction on monday, and no body was even there, let alone bidding. Plus, if there is something ood out there, the koolaid drinkers will be pouncing on it, and bidding it back up to non-viable pricing.
Once homes have been foreclosed on two, three or more times, then they may be enticing.
Paul
The asking price, $550,000, is $100,000 lower than what they tried to sell it for about 1 1/2 years ago, Cynthia Vergilii said. It’s a fair price, she said, given the $40,000 in improvements they’ve made in the four years they’ve lived there.
Their goal is to close on a sale by the end of June so they can move north to Dutchess County to be closer to their church.
“I’m one of those people with an enormous amount of faith,” Vergilii said. “I’m confident we’ll sell it.”
Yah, $550K’s fair, after all, they put a whole $40K into the shack. Never mind they probably paid around $300 and want to unload their payments they probably can’t afford (multiple HELOCs perhaps?) onto a greater fool they’ll use their “faith” to screw. Good thing she’s got an enormous amount of faith, to go along with their enormous wishing price and probably enormous mortgages. She’ll sell it all right, just not at the price they were hoping to skewer out of the next foolish lender. Hope they BK and end up on the street where they belong.
Got diversified assets?
“It’s a fair price, she said, given the $40,000 in improvements they’ve made in the four years they’ve lived there.”
Another bagholder buying into the labor theory of value.
“Their goal is to close on a sale by the end of June so they can move north to Dutchess County to be closer to their church.”
Cindy, if you don’t feel like driving to services, a Metro-North train ticket from Cold Spring to Poughkeepsie (Dutchess County) is $3.80 each way, even cheaper if you buy a ten-pack.
OT - If you are not current with the “Failure To Deliver (FTD)” stock issue, facing Wall Street the folks over at http://www.financialsense.com have brought together the relevant materials. You can find this in the second hour of their weekend news segment. The referenced materials are definitely worth reviewing before listening to the interview with Patrick Byrne.
Total time investment is about 3 hours.
Totally. Go to the broadcast page, and click the links to the presentation by Byrne and the Bloomberg video. Amazing stuff. Wall Street seems like the most corrupt place on earth, and yet we are all brainwashed to glorify it as the epitome off the American dream and to give these vultures all our hard-earned cash via mutual funds and 401k.
Byrne is a kook, and this is from an OSTK stockholder (in my IRA, thank goodness)
Four mega-conglomerations effectively own the US media (mainstream, that is). The so-called “Seven Sisters” in New York (mega-editors) effectively control what gets published for the mass market. Rosie O’Donnell, despite being a repulsive human being, deserves kudos for telling viewers of THE VIEW (arguabley the most vapid, empty-headed herd creatures on the planet) that if they want to read real news about real issues, they should go to the foreign press, i.e. the UK Telegraph. Amen! Given the symbiotic relationship between the media and the mega-moguls who own them, it’s not surprising that the MSM is, in effect, the border collies of the predatory oligarchial interests who control Wall Street.
“The so-called “Seven Sisters” in New York (mega-editors) effectively control what gets published for the mass market.”
I thought the “Seven Sisters” were Wellesley, Vassar, Radcliffe, Bryn Mawr, etc.
Also… why the “F” does a surgeon who makes 700k a year NEED/WANT a 100% loan?
I don’t know, but if a guy who makes 700,000 a year can’t get 100% financing I don’t know who can. That was a perfectly hyperbolic anecdote that shows just how far reaching the changes have been.
Having money and spending money on the bills you get each month are two different things.
I have heard about this before with these “High” incomes…… they feel since they have the money and bottom line will not stiff the debt, so what if they are 5 - 10 days late paying each month.
This is something that I have said many times when running my business for 30 years.
If I had to get Fu*ked out of money, it somehow felt worse getting fu*ked by a rich man than a Poor one.
Lenders need to keep getting capitol. Remember, most lend other peoples money, not like S & Ls that loan out their deposits. They have to show the folks on Wall Street and running Funds that they are not making bad loans after bad loans. They are basically saying, “Sure we were a bit lax before, but look how tight we are now.” If they don’t the money will dry up and they will be out of business.
I say “bring it on”
The quicker the open money faucet is turned off the faster housing prices come back to reality.
I can’t imagine someone making $700K a year being unable to get a loan. Gawd, that’s a ton of money!
Hi is probably corp to corp - stated income …
It didn’t say he couldn’t get a loan. He just won’t get a 100% loan. Sanity is returning. Lenders are finally figuring out, not a minute too soon, that people with no skin in the game have no incentive not to walk away when their “investment” drops in value.
“have no incentive not to walk away”
That is certainly a part of the story. Then there is also the fact that a lack of money for a downpayment can often be due to poor household financial management, or a taste for homes which are not actually within the purchasing household’s affordability range. The role of downpayments as an automatic underwriting mechanism has, until very recently, been severely underrated, IMO.
He wants to maximize the tax deduction for mortgage interest paid.
Perfect example of the current mortgage deduction policy ENCOURAGING over use of leverage, over consumption of property and SUBSIDIZING the RICH.
Why no “progressive” types seem to get this or care about it escapes me. Why no conservatives demand this policy be capped at some, modest, level disgusts me.
Encourage home ownership? Fine. Subsidize overconsumption and the wealthy, how can anyone rationalize this?
I totally agree. But let’s remember that people who own houses, any level of housing, are far wealthier than renters. What there is even a stomach for ANY mortgage deduction is something I can’t agree with.
Stop the mortgage interest deduction! If you want to help poor people, then give a tax credit for low income people, don’t give a blanket deduction to everyone. Don’t carve this turkey with a chainsaw!
I’ve a family member in NYC with “only” half the Dr.’s income - just tried to refi a $1.5 million house with a $1.1 million mortgage on it and got turned down - it was a “Stated Income” loan attempt (self employed small bus, but income is legit). So even with over 20% paper equity and significant income, the banks are saying no. “Look out below” is an understatement if you ask me….
“The couple are using Ms. Au’s credit score, which falls in the Alt-A category, to qualify for a 7.5 percent first mortgage and an 8.5 percent second mortgage”
Am I the only one confused by this? He makes 700K and the best her credit score will get her is Alt A?
The article says he has two fully mortgaged properties in HI and most of his money is in a business with some credit problems.
That’s enough to lower his credit score.
I would always question someone who makes that much money yet doesn’t have any reserves .I think its great that they are asking for a down payment on the Au’s. purchase . I would be concerned that the couple are equity locust who would draw out money within 6 months of the purchase . Also would like to know if the 700k a year is net income . Other lenders would not let this couple take out money on refinancing of other vacation property ,why?
Also ,why did this couple feel that they had to find something quick now because they had money tied up in Hawaii property ? Are these people upside down on the Hawaii properties ? Just because someone makes alot of money does not mean they would not burn the bank if a transaction doesn’t go their way .
“…doesn’t have any reserves .”
They have the value of those Hawaii real estate investments, though. Hawaii real estate always goes up, right?
It did ’til my buddy bought some.
Paul
Also, the good doctor himself — the one making the $700K — is in the sub-prime level. They’re using the wife’s alt-A credit to qualify — because she has the higher credit rating!
The good doctor — the one making 700K — has a sub-prime rating. The wife’s alt-A rating is better (!) and that’s why they’re using it to qualify!
They also appear to have several children — ages 26 to 7 — all pursuing careers in acting and modeling in Manhattan. This might explain some of their cash-flow problems.
I know several high-income people who are in “debt up to their eyeballs.” One illness or injury away from penury.
Being in “debt up to the eyeballs” is the new paradigm for “wealth building.” It encompasses the entire gamut of income earners, not just the near $1 million/year and above. How we as a society made this transformation into this ridiculous belief system is beyond my understanding. I have always (and still do) believed in the exact opposite.
Got 10% down?
Any private banker will tell you that Doc’s make a ton but save nothing. They spend it all.
‘why the “F” does a surgeon who makes 700k a year NEED/WANT a 100% loan?’
Reading between the lines, I am guessing they are leveraged to the hilt from speculating in Hawaii, and the lenders might be rightfully concerned over fears that Hawaii’s real estate may not always go up…
“The couple are using Ms. Au’s credit score, which falls in the Alt-A category, to qualify for a 7.5 percent first mortgage and an 8.5 percent second mortgage. ‘We have a lot of our money tied up in real estate in Hawaii,’ she said. ‘I knew we had to find something quick.’”
Sounds like they’re not telling the whole story… If you make $700k and can’t put down 5% for a condo, you got issues.
No doubt. I’ll say if you make $700k and can’t put 20% down on a Mil condo you’ve got issues.
The message I am getting here is “Cash is King”.
All these problems stem from the lack of money. For those who hate the USD note that it is the USD that in most demand here. These “worthless” pieces of paper would save the day for these people.
The cost to print a $100.00 Bill might have gone up to perhaps 50 Cents now…
The other $99.50 is strictly faith based and is accepted as such~
For the time being.
” … is strictly faith based and is accepted as such.”
Well, being “faith based” is apparantly enough. I notice everyone seems to be clammoring for the stuff.
Some folks say our currency isn’t backed by anything. I maintain it is backed by EVERYTHING, everything it can be exchanged for, which is most everything.
It is even backed by gold. Today anyone can easily trade dollars for gold. This wasn’t always the case; When I was growing up it was illegal for American citizens to own gold unless it was in the form of jewelry. That’s because the USD was officially backed by gold. In those days it was illegal to trade the dollar for the one thing the dollar was officially backed by.
Irony, anyone?
You can trade your paper dollar for the MARKET value of gold. A quite different thing from trading your paper dollar for a fixed WEIGHT of gold.
“For those who hate the USD”
I don’t think anyone hates the Dollar, it’s just that many recognize that the more Dollars that are created through debt is in fact devaluing the already created Dollars. This tends in the long run to show up as inflation. Sometimes it takes longer but the outcome is inevitably the same.
What some do hate, is the Ostrich approach in discussing the Dollar and “To Big to Fail” argument. It is liken to a “New Paradigm” statement.
Underlying Fundamentals are damned hungry, try not to look like food.
“I don’t hink anyone hates the dollar”.
I once had a “discussion” with a guy who was convinced the dollar was worthless and demonstrated this conviction by pulling a dollar bill out of his wallet, tearing it into little pieces, throwing the pieces into a trash can ,and stomping away.
I fished out the dollar pieces, taped them together and tried to give it back to the guy, who refused it. So I took the taped-together dollar bill home and gave it to my wife - who had no problem at all in spending it.
So, yeah, there are those who hate the dollar. Even though they earn dollars and spend dollars they still hate them, all because they are not “backed” by anything.
You are missing the point completely. Inflation of the currency is draining it’s purchasing power. It’s not worthless yet, that we can agree on.
“Inflation of the currency is draining its purchasing power.”
Yes it is. The FED wants it to do so. BB wants it to drain at a rate of 2% a year. Nothing new here.
This will make the currency worth less in the future (as opposed to worthless). Because it will be worth less in the future it is much more viable as a medium of exchange than as a store of value. This is by intent; if people think of currency as a store of value then they will be reluctant to circulate it. If they think of it as a medium of exchange then exchange it is what they will do. It is the exchange of currency that makes an economy work, not its storage.
“it is much more viable as a medium of exchange than as a store of value.”
If China, Japan, or any other purchaser’s of our Debt ever figure(or more likely, finally decide to do something about it) out what you stated and the level to which the devaluation is occureing it could get devalued even faster as they attempt to dump our treasuries while not purchaseing new ones.
If they don’t the imbalances continue until …….?
Better to fight a disease early rather than late.
If China and others decide to dump the USD and/or not buy more, then the US will have to raise interest rates to make the dollar more attractive to them. This will make dollars more scarce thus more pricey and more valuable.
And once again Cash will be King.
Here is a good read for you.
http://english.pravda.ru/world/americas/88836-dollar-0
Holding cash in storage based on the belief that the purchasing power isn’t going to diminish keeps that power steady. When folks fear a devaluation, that is when the money in storage flows into hard assets. Money follows the law of supply and demand the same as any vendible good or service.
Americans haven’t figured this out yet. Foreigners apparently have based on a lot of them wanting to terminate holding dollars.
What’s really destructive is when people with money perceive that their cash holdings will INCREASE in value. This is what happened during the Great Depression. That’s when the money supply dropped by about a third, making the remaining two-thirds more valuable.
People who had money had little incentive to spend it. This made money very scarce and commerce suffered as a consequence.
Something like this is going on today regarding housing prices. People who can afford to buy aren’t; they’re waiting for lower prices. This forces sellers to drop their asking prices which adds more incentive for buyers to hold back their buying. And on and on it goes …
During the depression, we were on a gold-exchange standard. The gold didn’t vanish. The excessive notes/credit was all that was vaporized.
It is Gresham’s Law. Essentially, a legal decree will force bad money into circulation and good money out of circulation. That was trumped by making gold illegal. Yet still, those suspicious were keeping their gold and using the legally decreed money instead.
Folks make it sound like holding cash is a bad thing. It is a vital necessity. Without anyone wanting to hold the stuff, the value would decrease since a large portion of the demand will have been eroded. Think of the decreaes in the dollar now as the rest of the world stops holding our cash. It was great when the rest of the world hoarded our cash. It literally gave us the impression that there was a free lunch. It provided a very large demand. What is going to happen as China gets our dollars and wants to get rid of them right away? Prices of a lot of other things that they purchase instead will go way up. Recently, that was the price of bonds. Well see if that is the case in the future.
Combotech,
Additionally, people holding cash doesn’t mean the money supply decreased. Very difficult for commodity money to decrease. Not the case with credit money, or fiduciary media according to Von Mises.
“The excessive notes/credit was all that was vaporized.”
Yes, but the physical assets these notes/credit financed remained in existence. Thus the relationship between the money supply and the good and services this money supply represented got knocked out of kilter, and asset deflation set in.
Look at what’s happening in housing today. Lots of money - fiat or otherwise - was created by loans to finance houses. Then the loans implode and many of these loans vaporize into nonexistence, but the houses remain. Thus our land will end up many more houses than the money to back them and consequently houses become cheap while money becomes dear.
Actually, I think I just realized something important.
It isn’t the debt itself that is devaluing the dollar–it’s debt creation. If all of the lending dried up tomorrow, then people could not bid in the marketplace for goods and services on credit. They would have to use the limited amount of real cash available. This amount is relatively fixed (M1 and M2 have not grown much, at least not exponentially), even accounting for fractional reserve banking.
It is only when new debt is created that it competes against our dollars. I posit when we have a credit crunch, actual dollars will be in much more demand since the debt substitute is gone.
“If all the lending dried up tomorow …”
You don’t need to wait until tomorrow. Something like this is happening today regarding housing.
Bingo! I think you have it nailed. I fully expect the dollar to rally significantly going forward for a while (at least) as the credit market implosion gains traction. A bit of confirmation of my feeling on this is the record short position on the Euro by the Commercials (who are usually very right).
The dollar may go up relative to the Euro, while both go down relative to gold. In that case, which would you rather have?
‘The message I am getting here is “Cash is King”.’
The message I am getting here is the War on Savers has been highly successful.
—————————————————————————–
Saving America: Rainy Day Funds Face Extinction
This article was published on Saturday, March 31, 2007 7:30 PM CDT in Business
By Kim Souza and Tara Muck
The Morning News
The simple leather-bound booklet from 1976 may not have been worth its weight in gold but the lessons it taught were golden for kids like Jake Files.
“It wasn’t much larger than a passport but I could hardly wait for the deposits which were made a few times each year, usually by my grandfather,” said the 34-year-old Fort Smith resident and former Arkansas legislator.
Files recalled the thrill he felt each time the bank teller posted interest or stamped “deposit” on the pages of the little book.
Following World War II, the passbooks were popular and fostered a sense of wealth, no matter the posted balance, said John Dominick, professor of finance and Arkansas Bankers Chair at the University of Arkansas.
Savings was a common family discipline in that era, Dominick said.
Only 40 percent of Americans have separate emergency savings funds, and 81 percent of those think the balances inadequate to cover an emergency, according to a national survey commissioned by the Consumer Federation of America last month.
GOVERNMENT RELIANCE
The lack of rainy day savings is part of a larger problem — mounting consumer debt, Dominick said.
“As debt increases so will the percentage of income needed to service that expense. Something has to go and that has been the savings,” he said.
For almost two years now the American savings rate has been negative, according to the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Many Americans aren’t saving in the traditional manner practiced just two generations ago, worrying policymakers and analysts who factor in longer lifespans and rising medical costs, said Alan Gardner, chief economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
The average American family doesn’t sock away 10 percent of its income each month like it did for several decades following World War II, due in part to the social promise of the much maligned Social Security system, said economist Kathy Deck, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas.
“I think many in the boomer generation have relied on inheritances and government support and may not have saved enough,” Gail Stein, a financial planner with ING Financial Partners Inc. of Rogers.
Stein and Deck also said people in general are disproportionately relying on increases in wealth to help fund their expenditures. For instance, homeowners often borrow from their own home equity which doesn’t show up as savings.
http://www.nwaonline.net/articles/2007/03/31/business/040107savingamerica.txt
Also see “The Central Banks’ War on Savers”:
http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north137.html
It seems to me the absence of savings - its scarcity - will act to make any savings more valuable in the future.
Again, cash is King, while debt sucks.
“… will act to make any savings more valuable in the future.”
It is hard to say, given the success thus far in the War on Savers. The top U.S. economic policymakers seem to believe they can print themselves out of any difficulty, which will work great until it doesn’t.
I feel the war on savers extends to the congress/senate as well. Taxes on intrest earned just kill any value. Throw it in to the stock market and keep rolling it around… cap gains are not taxed.
Its S T U P I D… removes cusion and stability from the country.
Who could make these names up?! Mark Reo specializes in bank owned properties! REO!
It’ll be Mark Repo when he goes belly up.
Yeah, perfect name….like my friend who is a mortgage broker named Ben Dover.
“Part of the inhumanity of the computer is that, once it is competently programmed and working smoothly, it is completely honest.”
Isaac Asimov
“‘You’re going to see people doing everything. We’re talking cars, vacations, boats, anything that will make people buy it.’
Anything except lowering the price. Does anyone have any anecdotes about calling these people out on their crap? As in, has anyone asked the realtor why she should get 6% commission for Bermuda vacation?
That statement is so 2006. Delaware always was a backwater pretender.
Hey, Neil, got taffy? (only makes sense if you’ve been to Delaware).
I used to rent a beach house in Rehobeth, about 3/4 mile walk from the beach. 4 beds, 2 fbths,1/4 acre lot, screened porches. The couple that owned it told me it was “a real stretch” for them to buy it, in 1996, for 125K. I am sure the place would have fetched over 800K at the peak, maybe more.
Point is, it is so irritating to hear the price increases described as “tripling,” or “doubling,” since 2000. The runup was well underway before then around here, and prices have gone up from 300-700 percent in DC and at the Delaware beaches, depending on location.
I think we are all going to be terribly shocked at how low they eventually go…..
Agreed, here in Queens SFHs have gone from $250,000 in the late 90s to $700,000. (though they are down yoy).
The run up is much greated than reported and the bottom is a long way down. See Hong Kong and Japan.
Slightly off topic, but it seems like the market in Northern New Jersey didn’t get the memo, is lagging the rest of country in pull back or is going to stay flat for a number of years. Prices here are still absurd and they don’t appear to be declining as quickly as some had hoped or figured. A number of people I discussed this with both young and old have said that Northern NJ is very competitive because of proximity to New York City, top notch services and schools and that prices will not change much because of these factors. Of course, there are those who disagree. Does anyone agree or disagree? What’s your feeling on this area?
a lot of affluent people live in north NJ and don’t plan on selling any time soon. Short Hills is there.
it will probably depend on the local area since towns are different. property taxes are the biggest wild card but the democrats are going to reform the AMT. guess who runs the high tax states?
Yeah it’s different here. Well it’s different everywhere. The only difference will be the pace of the decline, not the decline itself. I really doubt that big pockets will remain flat while the rest of the country declines 30% - 50%. Would you pay $800,000 for house if you could get one for $250,000 nearby (say outside of Philly?)
people who live there work in NYC and it’s a 20 minute commute to downtown NYC from the good areas in northern NJ. a lot of them bought years ago when it was a lot cheaper so there is no reason to go from a 30 minute commute to a 180 minute commute. A lot of the people also make enough to pay for that $800,000 house
Gary its the same here on Long Island. People are still holding firm with their ridiculous prices!!!! - liz
Does this not seem like the banks are accelerating the pop? Since the homeowners won’t come down on price, and/or can’t anyway, the banks by drying up the financing will get the job done however they have to. Even though they will take losses, it won’t be as bad for them as it is for the homeowners. The concept of “owning” your home(you don’t) will be changed forever. To me this seems no different than the the blowing off of unsecured credit card debt, from what I have learned of that, the banks take no risk on those as well, perhaps this is similarly set up?
‘The concept of “owning” your home(you don’t) will be changed forever.’
Most people don’t “own” a home, aside from “owning” the price risk. However, they do throw away money on interest payments to the bank. It is much easier these days to go broke renting money from the bank to finance a home purchase than renting a home of comparable quality from a landlord.
Here in Florida the mortgage of choice was the piggyback where 80% on one lender and 20% on another. The second guy is toast upon foreclosure unless they bid full indebtedness.
The only problem is the companies doing this are all the subprimes who are gone. New Century had a standing deal to do this with all the lenders. This was also prominent in the ALt-A market as well as prime. Bleedover? Hell yeah.
“‘I’m one of those people with an enormous amount of faith,’ Vergilii said. ‘I’m confident we’ll sell it.’”
Hi, Cynthia. I’m one of those people with an enormous grasp of reality. After your faith fizzles out in about six more months, let’s talk. I might have an offer you won’t be in any position to refuse.
“‘The impact is going to be much greater as banks demand that people have clean credit to get the best mortgages,’ she said.”
It’s about time! As a high-FICO, high-down-payment, good (verifiable) income buyer, I can’t wait till the playing field tilts in favor of “the few, the proud” who refused to compete in the market with all the greedy, stupid FBs responsible for the run-up of the last five years. This is going to get better and better in the months ahead.
I am one of the few & proud. Bring it on baby! -liz
‘I tell my owners: Hold on to your property if you can. Now is not the time to sell.’”
I wonder how many Tokyo realtors, circa 1990, gave out that horrifically bad advice prior to Japanese real estate tanking for the next 16 straight years. Of course, having vastly more honor than their US counterparts, they probably would’ve committed hari-kari by now.
Can you imagine what life is like for millions of people who are staring into the maw of foreclosure, the phone ringing constantly, threats, attorney’s letters, on and on? This just a few short months of your bragginng to friends and family about the killing you are making.
I can gloat about us all knwoing and sharing during this time but I can’t help but think that there is a greater force at work here that may change us for the better, as a society. Surely something good will come of this.
I would like to think that once the smoke has cleared we will come out of this a more educated society and rely more on our fellow citizens for information than the media hype. Blogging may well emerge as a critical source for decisionmaking in this country.
I know I would make no decision of gravity without seeking the counsel found on this an other boards.
Those of us who read Casey’s blog konw all too well.
Imagine if you are in the construction biz, working on what must surely be your last steady work for quite awhile…
“Blogging may well emerge as a critical source for decisionmaking in this country.”
I am sure you are right. Those of us who have followed housing using Ben and Patrick’s blogs have been years ahead of the info given via the MSM. If I want info on a political subject, I turn to blogs first. I suspect their impact will grow…it’s very American, freedom of speech, unfettered by corporate interests.
“…it’s very American, freedom of speech, unfettered by corporate interests.”
That is why I am anticipating regulatory measures within the next decade to curtail the influence of blogs. I suspect they are a bit too Democratic for the moneyed folks’ liking.
I agree GS. I hope we all at least put up a fight for our last remaining bastion of truth.
small d - democratic
“The Aus wanted to buy a one- or two-bedroom condominium costing $800,000 to $1.25 million at the Atelier on West 42nd Street, now that their 8-year-old son has a modeling contract in New York.
ROFLMAO, their 8 year old son has a “modeling contract”, as if this eight year old is actually going to make it to super model status at 8 years old.
If I had a dime for every model that gets a contract in NY (my son also has contracts with 4 different agencies all over the world) I can tell you at 19 he still has a long road ahead of him to actually start making any sort of living at this. I certainly am not rushing out to buy properties in all of the countries he has representation in.
These people are so stupid to rush out and buy a condo just because some agency has signed their kid to at best do a couple of catalogs for Macy’s but hey, that should pay him a couple hundred bucks.
There you have it and these are educated people!
SKB
It could be Faces International!
“There you have it and these are educated people!”
There is a difference between an educated person and a trained monkey.
Employers have been the impetus for this. They necessarily WANT trained monkeys, but do not necessarily have a need for educated people.
Got 10% down?
Being educated and deluded are not mutually exclusive. Making bank as a surgeon and still being naive and unsophisticated in the ways of NYC also not unlikely. The Aus look like a couple ripe for a scalping.
“There you have it and these are educated people!”
A saying of my father’s that my family quotes to this day:
“He’s educated, but he’s just not smart.”
Rediscover one of our best storytellers…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O._Henry
“Mark Reo is a builder, property manager, landlord, and foreclosure consultant. Reo said he has purchased six REO properties recently, but would like to start buying them ‘in groups of 10 or 15′ directly from banks.
Sounds like another bagholder who believes RE only goes up. Probably will be screaming to be bailed out once he can’t make his payments. Of course, it won’t be his fault…it will be due to some greedy loan broker.
This man is not just a knife catcher, he is a knife juggler!
“My business has given me an intimate knowledge of staged illusions, together with many years of experience among show people of all types.”
Harry Houdini
p.s.: I added a “d” somewhere. Sorry Harry
“‘You’re going to see people doing everything. We’re talking cars, vacations, boats, anything that will make people buy it,’ said Jack Corrozi, managing member of Corrozi Builders in Newport.”
Everything except lowering the price.