Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For April 4, 2007
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Let me explain present fractional (snow) banking rules & regulations, High Sierra Style…
Using your left hand, form a “C” with your thumb and forefinger, extending both digits as far as they can go. (about 5 inches)
Using your right hand, form a “equals” sign, using the same fingers, as above, this time, only extend the digits about 2 inches.
http://www.nohrsc.nws.gov/nsa/index.html?region=Sierras&year=2007&month=4&day=3&units=e
Those early morning prestidigitation exercises I put you through?
The 1st, was the average snow depth (4.8 inches) of the Sierran snowpack, as of yesterday…
The 2nd was the average water content (1.6 inches) of said snowpack.
The numbers this time last year? 35.9 & 10.8 inches.
I’ve always marveled at realtors way of overcoming obstacles, i.e. ” needs tlc”=dump or “has great potential” (potential is a French word that means you haven’t done anything)
But for you in the city of angles…
How is your realtor going to describe the sound of nothing, coming out of your faucet?
Oh Gee, they’ll probably have something glib to say about how brown dry grass is so “IN” in LA. And tap water is passe, bottled water is where it’s at.
Somehow southern California avoided water conservation during the 80s drought. Northern Californians weren’t allowed to water lawns. I couldn’t figure out why that was the case.
There were huge campaigns to return to low-water native plants and rock gardens all over SoCal. That did change. For the most part, most people don’t pretend we live in a rainforest in their choice of lawn and garden plants anymore.
astroturf your new maintenance free lawn - no watering, no need to pay anyone to mow it! ***Warning*** you may want to keep the local dogs off it!
No, we were all forced to install low-flow toilets and showerheads. Some cities (like Santa Barbara, IIRC) outlawed watering your lawn — they were painting their lawns green!
The difference between now and then is probably a few million people and a whole lot more development (too lazy to look up numbers).
No doubt, this drought is going to be a doozy.
Who needs water? It just leaves ugly haze on polished granite…
I guess they won’t be able to build any ethanol plants near there.
Brown dead lawn = Eviromentally aware, low water use xeriscape.The Clorado river has been drawing lower every year. At some point Ca, Az, will have the tap shut…Interesting times we live in. Even Fl. has water moratoriums already, their water drain causes sinkholes there…
“How is your realtor going to describe the sound of nothing, coming out of your faucet?”
low flow
“How is your realtor going to describe the sound of nothing, coming out of your faucet?”
Environmentally correct
That’s the silver lining for people in depressed Michigan. They are surrounded by fresh water. Maybe they can make a comeback by selling it to the western states.
I’m envisioning a scene from “Sahara” the 1943 ww2 flick, with Bogart, Bogarting most of the film…
He’s one of a pre-u.n. ragtag band of allies, in a fortress that has a well, with water. Somewhere in the desert of Africa.
If memory serves, he was trading water for nazi rifles & ammo right from the belly of the beast, as they were a bit thirsty. The barter system in full swing, with a decided advantage to Bogey, in that he was holding the royal flush, in the way of wawa.
Cool Clear Water…
http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm
From Raymond James:
EXCERPT:
“Now for those pundits that insist that real estate is not spilling over into the real economy, we ask the question, “Why has the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers’ Index posted a roughly 10% decline in shipments?” Or, “Why is Circuit City laying off 3,400 of its best sales personnel and attempting to hire maladroit sales people at a much reduced compensation package?” Similarly, “Why is Citigroup cutting 15,000 financial-related jobs?” And, “Why is GMAC stating that its Residential Capital subsidiary is going to hurt profits?” Inquiring minds want to know such things. Moreover, if the problems in sub-prime mortgages are NOT spreading, why are sub-prime mortgage companies dropping like flies, why are companies like ACC Capital closing their “call centers,” and why are delinquencies rising not only in the Alt-A complex, but in prime portfolios as well?” We think the answer resides in the fact that housing prices are falling while Mortgage Equity Withdrawals (MEW) are contracting. Indeed, MEW has declined from $844 billion to $386 billion over the past nine quarters as housing prices have softened and trillions of dollars of adjustable mortgages have reset at higher interest rates. And with the continuing decline in housing prices, combined with mushrooming adjustable rate mortgage resets, it is difficult to envision that this situation will not continue.”
Also, Chicago Mercantile Exchange Lumber futures have dropped IN NOMINAL DOLLARS to a level that has not been seen since mid 2003. Down 40% from the high point in mid 2004. Weak.
If there were only some way to make global water levels rise.
Hmmmmmmm,
Maybe Al Gore could assist.
Hi, neighbor.
http://louminatti.blogspot.com/2007/04/neighborhood.html
I like chickens too, as pets (would never eat one). I had a rooster for a few years when I lived in Houston. Were they that obnoxious? Seem pretty harmless to me.
One rooster isn’t. In a month there will be 50 if they don’t stop it now and 50…is.
I don’t find roosters obnoxious since I’m an early riser anyway. Not sure that chickens are a feature you want potential buyers to see if you’re trying to sell your house, though.
Who knows. If we are on the brink of Armegeddon like so many people here think, with Mad Max roaming the suburbs, chickens will be a good thing to have in your back yard.
We live within earshot of dozens of cows…
Their far away moos aren’t so bad on the soul~
And if push comes to shove, we are just 1/3rd of a mile away from meat on the hoof.
Grass fed happy California cows…
Cows are fun! Cow tipping on a warm summer night, cow pie bingo at the church in the summer - ah the joys of my youth!
Roosters crowing sound good only at a distance where you can just barely hear them. At distance I really like the sound. It’s a myth they crow at sunrise only, 1 or 2 or 3AM in the pitch dark is common. While living in Panama for a while my neighbors had a fighting cock in a cage… NOT GOOD!
In the depression, many families raised pigs in their garage. I knew families in Greenwich,CN; Lake Forest, Il; and Winnetka, IL that raised pigs in their garage. I doubt that the town ordinances will allow pigs to be raised in these areas now. But then again, when growing up and we were going by a neighbors pig farm; I asked my dad what the smell was and he replied “that’s a pig farm and thats the smell of money.” So maybe there will be a new definition of money. LOL
You didn’t realize “bringing home the bacon” was a literal term, eh?
In the Midwest, farmer friends calll their hogs ‘mortgage lifters’.
Hoz,
there was a story in the Chicago Trib around a year ago about a family in one of those ritzy north shore burbs having three VERY large pot bellies. There was a court battle over it. I think they still have them.
When I brought a day old bull calf back from Idaho to CA a few years back I kept it in my garage for a month while it went through it’s first back of milk.
I got relentlessly teased by my engineers and techs about my “garage range” beef.
In New Zealand a prized hunting kill would be one of the wild boars that is rarely seen~
New Zealand is sort of a avian jurasic park, as there were only birds and almost no mammals, (a couple different species of bats made up the entire inventory) for 18 Million Years, until The Maori showed up, around 1,000 years ago.
Captain Cook released a number of pigs on one of his voyages in the 1770’s and today, if you can bag one with a rifle in the mountains of En Zed…
Your trophy will be referred to as a “Captain Cooker”.
Charlie Walgreen! Thanks for the tip ChiBubble
from: ABC NEWS
Such obvious pig love and goodwill is perhaps why Estelle Walgreen was shocked to find her neighbors in the posh Chicago suburb of Lake Forest, Ill., were going hog-wild with anger over her trio of pot-bellied pets.
More than 250 residents, upset about the oinks and odors they say emanate from her estate, have signed a petition to get rid of Walgreen’s suburban swine.
“This is my home,” says neighbor Kathleen Murphy. “I don’t want to live next to a petting zoo. When I see them, they’re eating. I know eventually they’re excreting.”
and from NBC
“The pigs, named Porky, Pinky and Cooper, live with Walgreen on her $3 million estate. Walgreen and her two young children consider the Vietnamese pot-bellied pigs to be part of the family, and make sure the pigs are cared for properly.”
So my friends from college weren’t teasing me!!
When I lived in the southern Urals I had a huge place that had about three acres enclosed with a brick wall. I raised turkeys to make sure I had a turkey for Thanksgiving and Christmas. The first batch of hatchlings I acquired died within two days. Later I found out how super sensitive turkey hatchlings are to temperature—the air conditioner in my car killed them. I felt awful but decided to make another attempt and this time I made sure the heater was on in the car when I picked up the second batch. The second batch had a 100% survival rate—at least until mid November.
It was real stress buster to have a beer in the backyard and watch those turkeys run around.
Interesting….
What were you doing in the Southern Urals (i have an interest in Russia)? How long were you there?
I live on ag zoned land here on Maui. One of the things our many cultures love to do is fight roosters. My next door neighbor was my best man at my wedding. Make a long story short he borrowed $25,000 from me packed up and left for Washington state. Put the house up for sale and was gone. My lawyer told me I would have to sue him and chase him down. I had a better idea, I started raising fighting cocks. Right under his deck. I killed every blade of grass on that side of my land, and erected 50 rooster hutches. Since I didn’t want to have to get rid of a lot of chickens all I did was rotate 5 roosters to different hutches each week. This was in 2004. Just about everone that came up to see the house went out to the deck, saw the roosters and left. After 3 months of no sale his realtor came to see me. If I would get rid of the rosters they would write my loan payback into the escrow documents. I told her to pound sand. Told her my next project was going to be pigs. Two days later I had my check plus intrest. That day I took the hutches down. But I could not just kill the chickens that saved my butt. So I let them go. The house has sold and the chickens live in a pepper tree at the bottom of the property. To this day they are still there. Everything lived happily ever after.
Crash and Burn, that is a lovely story. A friend of ours disappeared a few months after asking for a loan. I don’t know where he lives now. I wish I could play some kind of trick on him so he would give us back the money…
Chickens live in trees?
Crash and Burn, you’re smart. You had some creative fun, got revenge, and got your money back. If you had punched him in the nose you would have gotten jail time.
Chickens in trees? Yes they roost up in the trees because of the mongoose. Since there are no hens and no nests, thats where you will find them at night. The few hens I’ve seen nest on the ground and are not around for long. As for punching him in the nose he is way bigger than me so I would have had my clock cleaned.
A flock of ducks lives in a pond close to my house. I often hear them honking as they fly to and fro. I actually enjoy it.
ducks don’t honk.
Probably geese and I’m not a big friend of geese. I live on a lake during the summer and all they do is crap everywhere. I had to change my landscaping so that it looked like there were places for predators to hide which was the only thing that kept them away. On the other hand, during the spring and fall, I live in a fairly wooded area where there is a distant sound of a single rooster. It is pleasant if you like rural, although it isn’t just at dawn. TXchick, how did you keep a rooster in Houston without grief from your neighbors? The “big lot” areas in Houston (Memorial, etc.) don’t strike me as rooster-friendly.
They are Mallard ducks and they most certainly do emit a honking sound while they are flying.
test
LMAO, Lou. There are a couple of neighborhoods close by me in South Shore Tampa Bay where chickens are common. The attitude is “Everybody do what they want to do”. Wait until the bird flu thing ramps up. People won’t be so tolerant of neighbors who want to keep chickens in a residential neighborhood.
A few years back I flew in to Ft. Lauderdale late at night, rented a car and drove down to Key West with the moon as my companion. When I got to the Hotel it was 0430. I checked in and was ready for a nice snooze. About 30 minutes after my head hit the cozy pillow there was this sound ….. cock-a-doodle-doo, I rolled over, pillow on head, cock-a-doodle-doo, ….
I wanted to have chicken - er - rooster - for breakfast that morning.
This was in a residential section of Key West. Now granted, the Conch Republic is pretty far out there in terms of societal norms, but I see where you are coming from Lou.
On the other hand, there may come a time where each of us may have a need to “farm” our small plots out of necessity if, tin-foil-hat-moment, the food supply infrastructure somehow fails us.
And WTF is going on with honeybees?? I’ve seen two news articles about the little buzzers dying off. Didn’t someone say if we lose honeybees, we are doomed? tin-foil-hat-off
“And WTF is going on with honeybees?? I’ve seen two news articles about the little buzzers dying off. Didn’t someone say if we lose honeybees, we are doomed? tin-foil-hat-off
”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colony_Collapse_Disorder
“Honey bees are not native to the Americas, therefore their necessity as pollinators in the US is limited to strictly agricultural uses. They are responsible for pollination of approximately one third of the United States’ crop species, including such species as: almonds, peaches, soybeans, apples, pears, cherries, raspberries, blackberries, cranberries, and strawberries; many but not all of these plants can be (and often are) pollinated by other insects, including other kinds of bees, in the U.S., but typically not on a commercial scale.”
That is from Wikipedia, so, take it with a grain of salt.
There have been several articles about this in local papers this year. I even heard a guy speaking about it on CSPAN.
They are pretty confused in Ca about the bee’s….Some hive owners are doing fine and others are completely devistated…UC Davis Prof. thinks it may be some kind of mite..
More likely the bee die-off is a result of new nicotine-based pesticides and RoundUp Ready seed crops engineered with genetically modified e.coli. (And everyone knows that viruses NEVER mutate, do they…. And bees don’t injest the modified pollens, do they….)
No one wants to talk about these recent poisonings (pigs in the spinich patch andyone?) because of the potential planetary lawsuits for Monsanto et al. My wild bees are just fine, thank you very much. I got eight 55 gallon barrels of organic honey from 112 hives last summer. But then, I don’t live in Bakersplat or its toxic environs….
Where is your hood ahansen ??
Down in the stables attached to my Zorro cape….
Nah, I’m at the tip of the Southern Sierras at about 4500′. So many blooms right now it smells like the perfumeries in Grasse. Eden.
Interesting…I would not think that Bee’s would thrive at that elevation…Learn something every day…
I think the bees took out toxic mortgages, bought their own hives, and were living off the appreciation. That way they didn’t have to pollinate anymore. Sweet.
I’m not so sure…
They left all the heloced honey in the hive.
Backstage - you may be closer to the truth than you realize. In several of the debates concerning GM grains, there was particular concern in making corn that was insect resistant. The debate is still going on, it is known that GM corn kills Monarch butterflies and evidence is building that suggests (not proves) it affects bees.
“The researchers examined the effects of pollen from a genetically modified maize variant called “Bt corn” on bees. A gene from a soil bacterium had been inserted into the corn that enabled the plant to produce an agent that is toxic to insect pests. The study concluded that there was no evidence of a “toxic effect of Bt corn on healthy honeybee populations.” But when, by sheer chance, the bees used in the experiments were infested with a parasite, something eerie happened. According to the Jena study, a “significantly stronger decline in the number of bees” occurred among the insects that had been fed a highly concentrated Bt poison feed.”
and
“An increasingly popular commercial corn, genetically engineered to produce a bacterial toxin to protect against corn pests, has an unwanted side effect: Its pollen kills monarch butterfly larvae in laboratory tests, according to a report by Cornell University researchers.”
http://tinyurl.com/3bbqgh Salon.com
http://tinyurl.com/3×6e4p Cornell news
Dude, corn is pollinated by wind. Do bees eat corn?
Amazing I just heard the rooster that is a 50 feet or so from my house as I was reading Lou’s post. Yesterday the rooster and about ten hens were pecking around in the vineyard. They do wake me up some time, however they were here before me. Just like wolves and grizzly bears were here before we were.
50 feet is definately shotgun range.
IC or modified — #6 cuts the number of pellets you have to pick out. Maybe boomerangs will come back.
My grandfather used to keep chickens at his place (currently my mother’s place) in downtown Wilmington, NC. I don’t understand what the problem is. If the neighbor had barking dogs, would he have to get rid of them as well? Or is this just a chicken bias?
Forget about chickens, how’d you like to have THIS in the neighborhood? 842 acres of prime land. I’ve seen comments on this board about the private equity group Blackstone. I’d be more concerned about the “private security” group Blackwater.
http://www.calitics.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=2292
LOL. It will probably cut down on the number of illegals running through the area. Blackwater goons playing commando has to be a lot easier on the land than a bunch of feedlots and pools of chicken waste.
That’s 1.3 sq. miles. Hopefully, the LZ for the “raiding” chopper, landing at 3AM, is in the center of the property.
Oh no, another way to screw the taxpayer. Blackwater guys make $100K per year to do the same job as our soldiers/marines. And aren’t subject to the military code of conduct.
I think dogs are just as much of a nuisance as goats or chickens. We have dogs flanking either side of us (one’s a Mastiff). They poop everywhere, and it stinks. Goats, on the other hand, can be trained to “go” in a particular place in the yard. And what’s more, you can milk them.
Of course, they might “baaaa” rather loudly at times.
I’ll vouch for the dog thing. Noisy beasts, sometimes. Roosters bother you at 5 AM. A couple of noisy, ill-trained dogs oin the next yard dogs can really ruin your whole afternoon.
I”ve lived near chickens, and I’ve lived near roosters. A few chickens I don’t mind. Roosters, never. (I’m not a pre-dawn riser myself.) Of course, it still puzzles me that people are allowed to have noisy, yapping mongrels in their yard while roosters are banned. Ban ‘em both, I say, and leave the chickens.
If things get as bad as many here seem to think, a dog or two will be your best defense as well as best friend… I live in the city with two dogs, both 80lb Lab mixes. Have had houses on either side of me broken into. Have had one of my tenants apartment broken into. No one bothers us though.
Bingo….If you enter my house without my wife & I or family there you are toast…..
Regarding the neighbor’s barking dogs …
I recently saw a ad about an ultrasonic sound blaster triggered by the barking of a dog. When the dog barks the blaster emits a painful ultrasonic screech that only the dog can hear.
It’s supposed to quickly Pavlov the dog into silence.
I have a low cost, low tech solution to the noise of the hounds.
Toss a chunk of limberger cheese over the fence. It will quiet them down and then they will snuggle up to mommy and daddy and oooh boy! Do not be tempted to toss chocolate, it’s bad for hounds.
I adopted a greyhound off of the Phoenix track 7 years ago. I have only heard her bark 3 or 4 times and then only one woof at a time. She does have dreams and makes noises when she sleeps but that’s it. She gets along great with my cat and is completely house broken. You want a dog that almost NEVER barks - adopt a greyhound!
When I was younger my family was given an a purebred collie from a show breeder that was retiring. Beautiful dog, papered, mild temperment, perfectly trained…and then we discovered she didn’t bark. She only made a low coughing sound. We brought this up to the vet at her first check up, and after examining the dog discovered that its vocal cords had been surgically altered to prevent loud barking.
Hot damn! I didn’t even know that was possible until that day. If I ever own a large, loud excessively barking dog again, I’m taking it to the vet to have its vocal cords surgically altered. Screw the shock therapy collars.
I’ve heard dogs like that before. I think the sound they make is so disgusting, it’s even worse than a bark! It’s probably better to refrain from getting a dog unless someone can stay home with it.
Barking dogs are a bigger problem than many people think. For proof, see:
http://www.barkingdogs.net
It is quite simple to correct a dog from barking if thats what you want….Shock collar with a mild setting and in one or two days its resolved….
Mild setting? Nah, I don’t think so.
Your on a roll today…
BLESS YOU for posting this wonderful site.
Our neighbors’ constantly barking dogs were the reason we moved from our previous house. They made us absolutely miserable and the city would do nothing about it. In fact, I know for a fact a lot of gov’ment people laugh about it as a low level infraction and not the serious QOL issue that it is. There was a bit of a bidding war for that house, and all I could think is — JUST LET ME GET AWAY FROM THOSE DOGS. And we had a dog at the time too and are “dog people.” It eventually got to be pretty ugly with our neighbors before we moved. Our first night at our new place we couldn’t get over how quiet it was!
Sooo… you’re the SOB that reported me.
The only critters in my yard are rabbits, deer, turkey, raccoons, opossum and chipmunks. I got rid of the groundhogs last year though I suspect their former lair will become home to a new band shortly. Since, for the most part, my visitors are mostly a tasty group they tend to stay quiet. I do get the occasional crow or bluejay and they are noisy. If my daughters didn’t like the bluejays I’d get rid of them, too.
This is getting seriously off topic, but how did you get rid of the ground hogs? Those are pretty resilient bastards.
.22
Oh I thought maybe you poured some Drano down their hole.
“I do get the occasional crow or bluejay and they are noisy. If my daughters didn’t like the bluejays I’d get rid of them, too.”
That’s a senseless, idiotic statement.
I have no problem with Bluejays, but I can accept these birds being a problem.
When they become a serious problem you might try this.
Bird Gard Electronic Bird Repeller Starlings, Robins, and Blue Jays, Covers 6 Acres. ~$500.00
Bird Gard Electronic Bird Repeller Starlings, Robins, and Blue Jays, Covers 6 Acres
Wisdom from way back.
“Believe me, that was a happy age, before the days of architects, before the days of builders.”
Lucius Annaeus Seneca
Subprime conditions are worsening. From today’s WSJ:
Late Bills, Defaults Increase
For Subprime Home Loans;
Problem Expected to Deepen
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
April 4, 2007; Page A2
The First American data show that in January payments were at least 60 days late on 14.3% of “subprime” loans that had been packaged into securities, up from 13.4% in December and 8.4% in January 2006. Subprime loans are those made to borrowers with weak credit records or large debts in relation to their incomes.
For Alt-A loans — a category between prime and subprime that includes many loans that don’t require full documentation of the borrower’s income or assets — the late-payment figure rose to 2.6% in January from 2.3% in December and 1.3% in January 2006.
“For Alt-A loans — a category between prime and subprime that includes many loans that don’t require full documentation of the borrower’s income or assets — the late-payment figure rose to 2.6% in January from 2.3% in December and 1.3% in January 2006″
In a down market, 2.6% is not a very high default rate. In fact, those are pretty good numbers.
Look out below for subprime loans though. You can’t charge enough intrest to make up for a 14.3% default rate!
Sure you can, why do you think Cash Call charges 96% effective annual interest. I’ve seen thriving businesses operate for years on 20%+ default rates, there’s not a lot of room for error, but it’s certainly possible.
To paraphrase Winston Churchill:
“Never before have so few, stolen so much, from so many.”
Amen to that…The question is, will their be pay back i.e. Enron ?
“…pay back i.e. Enron ?”
That’s what I wonder. I suspect they believe there is safety in numbers and they might well be right. That sort of cockiness allowed the honcos at SouthStar and all the others to smirk while they raked in tons of commission, knowing the game would end and they’d just walk away with all that cash. No penalty, no problem.
It’s confirmed. FNM layoffs coming soon. From today’s WSJ:
Mortgage-finance company Fannie Mae, remaking itself as it recovers from a multibillion-dollar accounting scandal, is cutting several hundred jobs from its 6,500-person work force by year’s end. The move is among measures to reduce operating expenses by $200 million, the Washington firm said. It confirmed the cuts after reports by the Washington Examiner and the Washington Post.
There ya go! A handful of meatheads at the top screw it up for a whole bunch of grunts in the ranks. Perhaps some of those grunts actually knew what was going on and were too timid to say anything, for fear of losing their jobs. Lost ‘em anyway. Taxpayers lose, too. Lawyers win.
It is very difficult for the average worker to ensure that an organization is run ethically.
…and no doubt Raines is still getting his 100k/ mo. retirement
in spite of everything that has happened.
Bitter renters hold on to your wallets. Rents are going up but not as much as a FB’s ARM payment. From today’s WSJ:
U.S. apartment rents went up a robust 1% in the first quarter, with only a slight 0.1% increase in vacancy to 6% nationwide, according to Reis Inc., a New York real-estate research firm.
Of the 79 markets that Reis tracks, only Colorado Springs, Colo., showed a decline in rents, down 0.1%. Rents rose the most in Miami, Seattle, and San Jose, Calif., all up 1.6% in the first quarter. Orlando saw the biggest increase in vacancy as apartments originally slated for condominium conversions streamed back on the market as rentals. Vacant apartments there jumped 0.7 percentage points to 5.6% in the first quarter.
“Rents rose the most in Miami, Seattle, and San Jose, Calif.,”
I heard the rental situation is rabid in Miami. People “have to get” so much a month to cover their bank payments. Miami can command rental rates that other parts of the state can’t.
I’ve been closely following rents/inventories in Sarasota FL.
No doubt whatsoever:
Rental inventories up, rents down. Nicer places for less money. Landlords and FB’s confirm this.
Unfortunately that hasn’t spread quite yet to SouthShore Tampa Bay, although you can buy a one bedroom condo at King’s Point in Sun City Center for $22,500. I don’t know what the condo fees are like, and it is over 55, but it sounds like a sweet deal to me.
And this downward trend will continue. How long can rents remain strong if wages do not? Oh, some areas will have a 2Q increase… but we’ll see a national decrease in 3Q.
Did you note how the article commented on buyers waiting? Yea…
For the record, I’m a spectator. I’m no where close to the sidelines.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Miami, like much of S. FL, is suffing from huge pricing inequities.
When I rented my current home, I was with a RE person who showed me about 5 homes in the development. All were same (or VERY similar +/- 200 sq/ft) model homes in the same community, most within sight of one another. The rents ranged from 1995 a month to 3200/mo. I won’t give away all the excitment and tell you which one I rented.
Miami has exactly the same problem. Some people are delusional, and until you find someone who has captulated to the market, you will see some insane rents. However, I have seen beachfront 2/2 condos (600K+ to purchase) renting for 2K a month in Miami beach. The deals are there (and are probably the only things that are actually renting). You just have to wade through SO much inventory to find them. Kind of like shopping at a thrift store, just keep digging, you will find someone willing to take your price.
“I won’t give away all the excitment and tell you which one I rented.”
$3200? Gotta be Mike!
Andy,
How did you know? I wanted to “rent” some debt servitude, see how I like it before I buy my way into it.
Actually, I rented the one for 2K, and I just light the other 3-4K on fire every month (that it would cost me to own it). I see it as a step towards homeownership. As soon as I am comfortable with watching several 1000 bucks a month go up in smoke, I know I am ready to buy.
It was the $3200! But he got a 40% discount. I guess you gotta keep the rental comps up.
Mike,
You can buy me some drinks at Blue Martini to make up for the difference!!
I won’t give away all the excitment and tell you which one I rented.
The one with granite countertops and stainless appliances, of course — price be damned!
Two years ago next month, I offered $2,400/mo for a killer-view condo for which the owner was asking $2,500. I asked that he paint a few of the rooms, all of which were drywall-white, a neutral color of his choice and to add a dining room light fixture and one or two ceiling fans. He balked and said he would agree only if I signed a 2-year lease. I walked, renting an almost-as-nice place for noticeably less. That first place sat unoccupied until last month, when it rented for $1,600/month. Meanwhile, I stayed a second year here and might stay a year or two or three longer if the deal is right. Such is the business acumen of so many condo “investors” in Florida.
Wow, that’s an impressive drop. Wish we were seeing more of that on the west coast.
Our rent was $2K in 2004, now $2,100. House around the corner, same model, rented within two weeks for around $2,800 in 2006.
Rents in silicon valley have been “White Hot” in some sub markets…Mt. View has gone Vertical..
Move out of Mt. View, dude. I don’t know what the problem is there. Oh wait, yes I do. 40% y-o-y declines in RE have convinced a few more peeps to rent it out. Tee-hee.
Just move a little south and you’ll be OK for a while. Get a lease.
40% y-o-y declines ??? Have a clue….
OOps! Bloomberg has a different spin on the rental situation:
April 4 (Bloomberg) — The vacancy rate for U.S. apartments climbed to 6 percent in the first quarter, the highest in seven quarters, as the number of available properties increased, real estate research firm Reis Inc. said.
Memphis, Tennessee, had the highest vacancy rate at 11 percent, followed by Colorado Springs and Tulsa, Oklahoma, according to the study by New York-based Reis. The national vacancy rate was the highest since the second quarter of 2005, when it was 6.5 percent, and compared with a rate of 5.9 percent in the first quarter of 2006.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&sid=aLB3rmP8Ukv8&refer=home
Rentals, rentals everywhere. The glut of rentals in NNV is awesome. The “for rent” signs are battling the “for sale” signs up and down every street, even in non-traditional rental areas. It’s like this enormous sucking sound everywhere as yesteryears profits are sucked down the liquidity drain. Easy come, easy go.
ex-nnvmtgbrkr;… Were you “nnvmtgbrkr” in a prior life ??
You didn’t hear I’m out? I used the license for TP and flushed it.
I suspected it was you…Just wanted to make sure….Whats the Reno, Minden area looking like ??
“D-FW apartment leasing sluggish”
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/classifieds/news/homecenter/realestate/stories/DN-apartments_03bus.ART.State.Edition1.3790469.html
In Orlando they are so deperate to rent apartments that free rent is offered all over town.
Saw that yesterday along 434.
I live in South Florida and follow the RE market closely including the rental market. I don’t know where the WSJ is getting their data (NAR?), but in my experience the exact opposite is happening. I see rental prices dropping like a rock. Check craigslist, miamiherald.com, or sun-sentinel.com and all of them are absolutely FILLED with vacant rental properties. Everywhere you go, you see “For Rent” signs. Apartment complexes are offering all sorts of great incentives like first month free or no deposit.
I’m sure that others who live in South Florida can substantiate what I have been seeing.
My wife lives in the Hollywood area and is paying $1000 for an apt. The large apt complexes owned by large property managers are sticking to their prices. However, the smaller independantly owned properties are lowering prices. The wife found a large one bedroom apt for $750 and will be moving. There will be quite a few good deals on rentals that are located on A1A. Mainly high rise condos where the flipping game was being played. Lots of FBs and foreclosures.
My develeopment hired some poor shmuck to stand outside in a freakin WIZARD costume( including head and and cape) with a sign that they are making MAGICAL DEALS… In the 80 degree heat. Compare this to last year when they raised rents an average 5% and told me take it or leave it.
I talked to the leasing office and they are around 6% vacant. My lease is up in a few months and for what I am paying, I can rent any one of 50 FB houses.
The downward spiral of rent has only begun. I can pick from a mutlitude of $500,000 houses for around $2000 a month rent. ( less than 1/2 the cost of owning).
What am I missing?
Nothing. Go rent one, that’s what I am doing. It’s a great deal, subsidized by some poor caught buyer.
It takes 4-5 months of rent just to pay the TAXES on the house that I rent. Another 2 to pay the HOA. I don’t actually know, but I would guess another 2-3 to pay the insurance. So, best case, lets say it takes 8 months of rent to cover the FIXED costs. Now you have 4 months of rent (8K) to pay for the 550K MTG. Oh yeah, let me know how good that feels every month. I would have to imagine that I am a bit below 1/2 the cost of ownership (with all the deductions taken into account) then the cost of rental in this property.
So, you’re not missing anything. Except for all the granite, SS, Italian marble and Mohen fixtures you can stand.
At a reasonable price point to boot, with none of the concerns of the home blowing away! 
“What am I missing?”
Your sheeple DNA.
Good grief - i just dont understand Seattle. The city is not supposed to be growing population wise - but the condos are selling and vacancy is pretty low. Hope this settles by summer, and then we can join the rest of the country.
I expect our numbers for March to start painting a different picture — much more so in April. Watch for closed sale numbers and inventory as leading indicators. The former was down about 9% YOY for Feb., the latter was up about 20%.
We told our property manager no rent increases this year (Long Beach, CA), hoping to avoid the condo can’t-sell competition.
I, personally, think rents are too high in my area. You have very plain, no-frills, 2BR condos asking $1200+. And that doesn’t even include the association fees. These plain-Jane condos sold for about 75K about 6 years ago.
A co-worker of mine recently signed a lease on a 2BR condo for $1350/month. My guess is she makes about $40K/year. She has a new car payment, not much savings, and debt she’s paying off. She and her daughter have lived with her parents for the past several years. I cannot see how she’s going to be able to afford this. However, she’s one of the reasons rents stay so high - she thinks it’s a deal. Please.
btw, I live in a small, privately owned complex. It has its issues (as will any place where you’re attached to your neighbors), but it’s well-maintained, reasonably large (2BR, 1.5BA, ~950 sq. ft.), and only $779/month - and that’s for the top floor (the lower you go, the lower the rent). The extra $500 or so/month I save by not renting from a condo owner goes straight into savings.
Oh, and, these condos are currently listing for over $200K (the very basic ones in the lower $200s, ones with more pizazz mid- to upper-$200s).
Are these guys going by asking prices or paying prices? It’s just hard for me to reconcile how vacancies and rents can simultaneously increase.
Besides, who cares if San Jose went up 1.6%? They went down about 20% in 1999, then didn’t change at all till just now. Even now the increase is tiny.
The stupidity has spread to commercial lending, per Fitch. The defaults will come later.
In the real estate finance and economics textbook I read, the authors held that the number one factor in the chance of default for commercial mortgages and collections of them is the year they were issued (and the extent of stupidity at the time). I wonder if investors are being compensated for a 15% default rate, if in fact it comes in that low.
http://nreionline.com/news/Fitch_default_2007_CMBS/
The next “Bubble” appears to be leveraged-buyouts. Does anyone know how much of the 100 billion dollars worth of deals done by KKR alone this year (07) is debt?
That’s why I said the other day that anyone in law school ought to take all the corporate finance and bankruptcy classes they can. Wait until that boondoggle busts. They won’t their families for years.
The next “Bubble” appears to be leveraged-buyouts. Does anyone know how much of the 100 billion dollars worth of deals done by KKR alone this year (07) is debt
Aren’t all LBO’s financed with 100% debt? I could be mistaken and probably am.
The idea of LBOs is similar to a bubble. The idea is to strip the company then to turn it public again to make additional profit. The idea is the greater fool theory. The public has bought this junk in the past why should the public stop buying now?
Yes, most of it is debt but not all. In addition, private equity buyouts can be mostly debt.
I don’t know what kind of deal Sam Zell put together but he only has $314 million of his own money in the game.
Zell is doing an ESOP. The debt of Tribune will increase to 13 Billion from 9 billion. Zell gets 40% of the equity and unrestricted stock. Safer to buy stock in Zimbabwe.
Zafer to buy zymbals, than Zimbabwe or just go to the zoo.
Just moved into my new neighborhood (don’t worry, I am renting). While the moving truck is still in the driveway, a man walks up to the house and knocks on the door. Sister-in-law answers the door.
Man, without formalities: Are you renting, or buying?
Sister-in-law: Renting
Man: How much are you paying?
Sister-in-law: Uh, I don’t know.
(Man shuts the door on my sister-in-law, then abruptly turns around and walks away.)
Turns out he is trying to sell his house next door. Of course, there are about 6 other houses for sale on the same street, so best of luck to him.
Welcome to the neighborhood!
Wow, what ever happened to the welcome wagon? our neighbors let us know that they could offer us a deal on the house before they listed it… no sign yet, we passed.
Do you live next to Zig Ziglar!!
Go over and tell him $1000 a month with the first month FREE. That should send him over the edge…LOL
How about - “Oh don’t worry - we’re not renters. Our commune believes strongly in home ownership. The rest of our flock, and the chickens, will be here tomorrow. Feel free to stop by and join us for the sunrise chanting session.”
LOL
So let me get this straight….the neighbor reaches out and shuts the door on himself? Really? If it was me, I would’ve NHL-ed him right off the front porch. After he got up, I would’ve NFL-ed him into the turf and made him mow the lawn with his teeth. Then, if my indignation wasn’t properly satisfied, I would have gone Federal prison on him for good measure. I’m sorry, you have to send a strong signal to the hood that this behavior will not be tolerated.
Holy crap. Make sure you tell me where you live EX, I never want to knock your door. I can just see you in there with your hockey pads and football helmet on, just waiting for someone to knock.
“Just try me UPS guy; I am at my breaking point!!”.
Also, unless this is Compton, I am not sure that you need to send that strong a message.
Still good for a laugh though!
IMO ex-NNV has the right idea. Did anybody ask the SOB to come over for tea? No. Then he had the gall to insult droog’s S-I-L and manhandle his property… In South Philly that’s a cue for the ol’ baseball bat to the kneecap.
I wouldn’t last five minutes in Philadelphia. Too wimpy.
Nah, just find a neighborhood where all the yuppies live. You’ll be fine. (The most you’ll have to worry about is getting litigated to death.)
Yup, he reached in, grabbed the handle and yanked shut the door on his own. It could be because he bought the house for $307K in 2004 and has it listed for $495K in 2007 with absolutely ZERO takers. The situation must be provoking the “Lord of the Flies” instinct in him.
Telling your story to some of my peeps might provoke the “Louisville Slugger” instinct in them…
What a greedy ass.
Then he calls the cops and you are charged with assault.
Before or after I drape him over the hood of my car like a trophy buck and parade him around the neighborhood?
Funny !! You seem awful angry today ex-nnvmtgbrkr ??
No, no - not angry. Just a very sick and twisted sense of humor finding an outlet.
Keep it coming ex-nnvmtgbrkr.
Ah…please keep it coming Sir!
ex-nnv, you’re wife will be pleased tonight!
Actually he is on their property and trespassing…
You still need to be careful about who throws the first punch.
If you shoot or inflict damage on someone who invades your home you are almost guaranteed to spend a night in jail.
Remember the cops are cops, not judges.
I had some guy who claims he is (was) the (ex)owner of my foreclosed rental show up on Sunday night. Taking a pee in the abandoned unit in front. I told him he needed to get TFO!
“Do you know who I am?! I’m the owner!!”
Sorry, bud, This has been foreclosed on. You need to get TFO!!
He took a swing. Didn’t come close, but I called the cops. He bailed and I haven’t seen him since.
I wonder how many of these situations will actually come to real violence.
Hey Ben!
Here’s the idea for your next blog! Real stories of Real Estate Violence. Can’t wait for the photos. Uhg.
Paul
Where the Rubber Meets the Road
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=595
Hi Russ,
I took a look at your blog. Thanks for posting that. I agree with one of your comments that we need to somehow, some way, STOP THE HEMMORHAGING of goods producing jobs in this country. This is not sustainable, and until the trend is reversed our trade deficit will only continue to climb from the current $70 billion per month level…..
Ughh! It’s getting uglier and uglier in Michigan. Who do you sell to when everyone’s credit is ruined and no one has a job and your neighborhood is boarded up? From Bloomberg:
“I could have sold this house 10 times over but everyone’s credit is gone to hell in this state,” said Robert Springer, a carpenter who’s trying to sell a property he renovated in Eastpointe, Michigan, 30 minutes north of Detroit.
…
While foreclosures have only begun to sap the value of Detroit’s more expensive neighborhoods and the suburbs where white-collar auto executives live, they’ve already gutted many lower-income areas, such as the blocks around 30th Street, about two miles from the city center. Rows of foreclosed houses, many with plywood-covered windows, stand with both their front and back doors wide open.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&sid=aPtjONAgSIXc&refer=home
I can’t help but thinking there’s some real opportunity here, in a good way. Maybe for an employee owned business to revive the manufacturing base in the US and move into modest housing.
“I can’t help but thinking there’s some real opportunity here, in a good way.”
Maybe in 10 or 15 years. Population is in decline. Jobs are on the way out. There’s no one to buy the forclosed homes. The blight of Detroit will spread to the immediate suburbs first and then move further and further north and west.
On the plus side, if Detroit manages to bring jobs to the city, they could potentially pull off a Chicago or Louisville. These cities were in decline for a long time until real jobs returned to the city. Now both cities are thriving. Watch out for the burbs in Lousiville though. They were emptied out by people leaving to move back to the city.
All of that vacant Detroit property would make dandy farmland.
I liked the 80’s movie “Robocop”, which was set in Detroit’s future. Got it real close so far…
Yea - things are really tough in Michigan. We have relatives there that use to work for Ford. At one time, getting on with Ford was a ticket to middle class comfort. Good pay, Medical Ins, Dental Ins, and a Pension - everything a person could hope for and you didn’t even have to go to college. Hell - given all options, it was better to skip college and get a job on the line. By the time you were out of school, the guy on the line was making more than a starting professional.
End of an era.
Michigan had other manufacturing besides auto, too. Grand Rapids used to be the furniture capital of the US, all the great mid-century stuff came out of there, Herman Miller, etc. Many of the retirees to the West Coast of Florida were from Michigan. I guess that won’t be happening now. Explains why Sun City Center, which used to be like 80% Michiganders, now has 2,000 homes for sale on realtor.com alone!
Michigan had other manufacturing besides auto, too. Grand Rapids used to be the furniture capital of the US, all the great mid-century stuff came out of there, Herman Miller, etc.
In California, the gold mining days are over.
When I was a student at the University of Michigan, I had a roommate whose father was an accountant at GM. Her family referred to the company as “Generous Motors.”
That was during the mid-1970s.
I’ve often wondered if my roomie’s dad was able to remain in his job until retirement. With all the layoffs since the seventies, I kind of doubt it.
Go Blue, Arizona. I’m a wolverine too, from the same era. And I’m sure your roommate’s dad is fine. They had 30 and out, which my dad reached at the age of 52. He will have the distinction of being retired longer than he worked in just 7 years, God willing.
That’s another topic: early retirement. People are working longer nowadays, usually of necessity. I would like to cut my hours down in a few years, or do something else, rather than retire.
“I could have sold this house 10 times over but everyone’s credit is gone to hell in this state,” said Robert Springer, a carpenter who’s trying to sell a property he renovated in Eastpointe, Michigan, 30 minutes north of Detroit. “Everyone used their homes as cash cows when the market was good, taking out home equity lines of credit, and now no one is paying them back.”
Classic whining flipper. Eastpointe used to be called East Detroit. The only thing that kept these areas viable was their proximity to downtown when there were jobs there. With the exception of Grosse Pointe, these areas are toast.
Makes one wonder what will happen in the previously hot R/E markets if they go into recession. There was some stupid lending going on in MI, but most of this decline was due to the one-state recession. Prices were virtually flat in this decade and with the 20-25% price drops in some areas it means there’s a whole lot of people with mortgage balances in excess of market value. These could be 20% down loans!
When we re-fied down to a 15 year in 2001, the appraised value of the house was only $5K less than what we eventually sold for in 2005. That’s not much appreciation on a $500K house. People who bought in those years with only 10-20% down have to be underwater.
” I could have sold this house 10 times over *BUT* ”
sure…
The real estate market has plummeted because of auto industry layoffs and the foreclosures that go with it,” said the 37-year-old Alford, who put a $215,000 price tag on his family’s three-bedroom brick bungalow.
This house is on my street, 6 houses down. It’s a pretty nice neighborhood but the houses are mostly small bungalows and colonials(1000-1600 sqft). It would have sold in a matter of days anywhere from 1995-2003.
The one nice thing about living in Wisconsin is that we’re separated from the “blight” in Michigan by a big lake (Lake Michigan).
We used to be the red-headed step-child state in the Midwest, because we didn’t have much in the way of an Auto Industry footprint. But now we’re actually doing relatively decently compared to some of our neighbors, when it comes to retaining a fair amount of our manufacturing jobs. We still have Cranes and shipbuilding (Manitowoc Corp), military trucks (Oshkosh), lots of cheese production and paper mills (the Fox Valley area has the world’s highest concentration of paper mills). And due to freight costs, you can’t cost-effectively import a lot of paper products, so there’s no much threat of outsourcing paper manufacturing from China (to California yes, but not all the way to the Midwest). Oh, and we have motorcycles in Milwaukee (Harley Davidson).
In the long run, I really think retaining manufacturing jobs is going to be the key to economic prosperity. Right now, Michigan and Ohio are losing this battle, and Wisconsin is doing okay, not great, but okay.
Big fan of previous bubbles and The Dutch Tulip Bulb Bubble of the 1600’s, is what I cut my teeth on…
http://www.damninteresting.com/?p=469
I’m new to the horticulture game and planted tulips in the fall and 39 amazing blooms sprung up, about 3 weeks ago.
We are down to 3 tulips, now.
There were 15 fully blooming tulips, just 2 days ago.
I can think of no better barometer, for this market.
comment from tulip bubble country:
there is a lot of wrong info on that page, especially the currency conversion parts. 1000 Dutch florins was the price of a nice merchant home. At the height of the tulip bubble, the most expensive bulbs traded for the equivalent of a luxury estate (current value probably at least 10 million euro’s). Don’t forget that this happened shortly after the invention of the stock market, in a sense it is similar to the current RE bubble that is caused by the loose money policy of central banks. Also, one of reasons that almost everyone was involved was that tulip bulbs were traded in taverns of which there were on average two in each street (there was no tap water available, so people had to drink beer). The real mania lasted just a few years; it ended because of a virus, but that’s another story
down to 3 tulips? who knows, beware of the echo bubble …
You should keep in mind that, unlike real estate, tulip bulbs magically multiply underground (yes, the bulbs are real assets!) if you keep them in good health. So it is a clever investment: with some luck you get your investment back next year, split off the new bulbs and sell maybe ten for every one that you purchased in the previous year. People still try this with real estate in the Netherlands, but there is a certain limit to how much apartments you can split off from one home (especially for recent models).
Are you a vampire?
Will post again tomorrow during twilight hours if no response today.
No tulips yet here in Wisconsin. They’re just peaking out of the ground right now. Probably 2-3 weeks from seeing any tulips here.
I have a 2-3 hundred daffodils in the backyard, and maybe 100 tulips. You have to keep the “striated” petal tulips separate from the solid-colored ones. The striation (sp?) is actually caused by some type of a virus, as I understand. I mixed mine up about 5 years ago, and all the solid-colored bulbs got infected, and came up the next year looking like mutants.
Good luck with your tulips. If you take good care of them, they will last for years and years. If you don’t, they’ll sputter out in 2-4 years and you’ll be buying new ones….
this is ot
but gold is up 9$ and close 675$!
You just made aladinsane very happy.
Me too.
Gold needs to keep going and break through $700 (please?)
I wonder why the sudden jump (all of the gains) the last few minutes?
Never mind - just learned about the hostage release thing.
Seems odd that that would cause gold to go up though. I would think it would have the opposite effect.
maybe because all is now clear for the rumoured April 6 bombing of Iran by the US/UK?
Gold reflects the general economic situation. Todays ISM number dropped to “52.4, the lowest in almost four years, from February’s 54.3… and at the same time, “The institute’s measure of prices paid, a gauge of operating costs, rose to 63.3, the highest since August, from 53.8….”
What this shows is inflation that has not been priced into goods yet.
inflation not priced in? the 10-year Treasury is down on the news; go figure … probably tells us that Bernanke will lower rates irrespective of inflation numbers.
There is a disconnect between 10 yr and the fed discount rate. The dilemma for the federal reserve is that longer term rates have a low yield. Is this the result of foreign purchases of US treasuries? Probably. Japan and China and India do not wish to lose a major investment and should support the treasury market.
Inflation is not priced in to the price of gold. Gold, an incredible metal maintains value, but gold does not act as a very good hedge against inflation. Gold acts as a hedge against commodity price appreciation. A small difference that causes billions of dollars to change hands.
“Gold acts as a hedge against commodity price appreciation. A small difference…”
What’s the difference between commodity price appreciation and inflation Hoz? Just trying to wrap my head around it. Thanks!
Gold is around $675 an oz.
If we hyper-inflate our currency, it will hold it’s value in whatever new ruler of the universe currency emerges out of the mire, triumphant, or if there is no new king of the fiats, it will rule supreme.
Using the most current model for hyper-inflation, Argentina, some 5 years ago…
Their currency essentially lost 2/3rds of it’s value overnight, but if you were a sharp Argie and had put your faith in Gold…
Presto!
Suddenly your Gold had 3 times the buying power, as Gold’s value is and always has been truly global, for many thousands of years and the value has everything to do with how a country is faring.
Gold is a harsh taskmaster and doesn’t suffer financial fools.
What sort of report card grades should we be expecting?
Caramello, Commodity price appreciation for the last year has been 23% (CRB) (gold is up 25%) however the CPI is a nominal 3%. Some individuals regard the CRB as a truer measure of future inflation.
aladinsane, you are theoretically right. But what sharp Argies did was buy dollars and stash them under the mattress. Then they went out and bought property at fire sale prices. You would not believe the deals some people got just because they had cash in hand.
Never mind - just learned about the hostage release thing. Seems odd that that would cause gold to go up though. I would think it would have the opposite effect.
Hostage release is just a temporary positive. Iran is no less a serious threat: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Laird/apr042007.html
But the general American public won’t stand for a war against Iran, even if it would mean keeping terrorism over there instead of having it brought back here.
“But the general American public won’t stand for a war against Iran, even if it would mean keeping terrorism over there instead of having it brought back here.”
Cleverly worded, Bill.
So how exactly are they going to bring it here? It’s not like they have a standing army that could even scratch our military.
Even if they manage to sneak a few bombs across our borders and set them off, it’s not a threat to us as a nation. Tragic, criminal, and despicable yes, but we’re not going to be Annexed by Iran anytime soon.
I’m sick of all the fearmongering. I wonder what effect it has had on the housing market all these years?
I wonder if all the “security moms” out there felt more secure in a standalone home than an apartment or something like that?
Oh and Chip - lol took me a while but I finally got it.
I can think of about 100 scenarios where 50 guys with assault rifles and bomb making materials could shut this country down, for as long as it would take to round all of them up.
All it would take would be enough money to do it right…….
First,
How are these guys going to get into the country (assume you’re talking Arabs, who are finally being screened).
Secondly, how do they get in here with assault rifles AND bomb-making materials.
I’m not buying it. Call it fear-mongering if you’d like, but I’m not buying it. Al Qaeda had their ONE CHANCE to do what they wanted to do, and they took it. They could not (can not) ever repeat what they did on 9/11. One could reasonably argue that if our gov’t had their act together, 9/11 really never should have occurred in the first place.
We could spend 1/50th of what we’ve spent in Iraq to make our borders even more secure, and we’d have accomplished much more than what we have done there. With NO loss of lives…
They could get over here the same way they got over here to do the 9/11 deal. The war in the middle east is like honey drawing flies. Better have the honey attract the terrorist flies over there than to have the terrorists walk across the borders. So you folks do not think terrorists can come across our borders? Some of you are the very same people who say that there is no way we can stop illegal aliens (think “Mexicans”) from coming acrosss. So which is it? We do not have iron clad security to prevent terror. However if the terrorists abandoned their drive to go into Iraq to cause trouble and come over here instead, Iraq would turn into a small republic with a burgeoning economy and peace. Iran and Syria would not stand for that, so they send their terrorists into Iraq. I heard that a great deal of the bombings in Iraq are by insurgents from outside Iraq. The US news media does not report this (Clinton News Network).
Could it be people covering wrong-way bets?
I don’t know about wrong-way bets, but I thinkmost of the oversonsumption that goes on here is driven by fear. Fear of getting in a car accident and not having the bigger SUV. Fear of not having the “in” clothes. Fear of not having the latest Air Jordan shoes. Fear of having bad breath. And of course fear of not having the right house in the right neighborhood.
Funny thing is, more often than not I think it boils down to being afraid of what OTHER PEOPLE WILL THINK if they don’t buy these things rather than any real consequences.
No wonder we consume so many anti depressants and many guys need a little blue pill to just to bump their uglies.
Gonna be interesting when the bearings on the merry-go-round seize and the great american consumer comes flying off the handle.
Went skiing for the last time this year, yesterday…
My buddy (long time park ranger) and I had a grand old time, until the snow turned into the consistency of a slush puppy, around noon.
It’s like skiing on runny mashed potatoes~
Great now you can go for the roller coaster ride!!
http://tinyurl.com/2ccwrv
Real Estate Roller Coaster on youtube
Hope it’s a white knuckler…
Awesome
Foreclosure Location of the Day: Fulton County in Atlanta GA:
http://www.foreclosure.com/search.html?st=ga&cno=121&z=&tab=f
Holy crap! 2,040 foreclosures in Fulton County?
“America… just a nation of two hundred million used car salesmen with all the money we need to buy guns and no qualms about killing anybody else in the world who tries to make us uncomfortable.”
Hunter S. Thompson
Eh, that’s the way it might have been once upon a time. Now, we’re a nation of whining entitlement-seekers who don’t even aspire to be used car salesmen and who fear guns as the tool of the devil. If you ever wonder why Rome fell despite its proud legions, take a look around and think about it.
just wait until US forces start working for Iraqi (Kurdish?) and Afghan warlords instead of for worthless US greenbacks. Something similar happened in the last days of the Roman Empire … we are not quite there yet.
Former US military have been working in the Middle East as advisors since the late 70’s. Someone has to keep those F-16s ready for flyovers celebrating the King’s birthday party! Great pay and vacation with tax benefits!
that’s a different story - when the decline of the Roman Empire started to accelerate, together with depreciation of the currency (sound familiar?), many centurions found out that they were financially (and in many other ways) better off working for the foreign tribes that they were supposed to fight, so they changed sides. Many of them retired early instead of fighting for Rome until the bitter end.
Yeah,
Read this “blackwater.”
News from Exurban Northern VA:
The Fauquier Times-Democrat business editor says “this bubble . . . will end badly”, and the Rappahannock County people (pop. 7,000, square miles 265, and draconian zoning regulations), woke up suddenly and realized that it would take 88.5% of a teacher’s salary to afford the median house there. Oh, and folks are beginning realize their NIMBYism finally resulted in their kids having to leave the area. Boo Hoo. No grandkids for you!
http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/
Yep, when Loudoun and the surrounding counties put the kibosh on Disney, I saw where that was headed. As things are, Fairfax County employees (of the working-level kind) generally need to live two counties away in order to afford a family. The executives don’t see any problem, of course.
Sometimes I wish the federal government would move to Omaha.
“Sometimes I wish the federal government would move to Omaha.”
Detroit. There is plenty of low-cost housing available and the folks In Michigan need the work.
Here’s the money quote from that article:
“You get a first mortgage for 80 percent, and a second for the other 20 percent, and you can get in without putting up any money. My 22-year-old son just bought a house for $450,000 with no money down. It’s an interest-only loan.”
Doesn’t that constitute child abuse?
I hope she co-signed on the loan, and is responsible when the kid defaults.
I tend to think that the pinnacle of the listings is approaching. Housing tracker ( http://www.housingtracker.net/ ) says inventories are increasing by over 2% per week in most major metropolitan areas, with listings that include: over 110,000 in Miami; 46,000 in Tampa; 104,000 in Atlanta; 63,000 in Detroit (?Detroit!); 40,000 in Dallas; 43,000 in Phoenix. I just wish the site kept a historic listing so we could compare current inventory with, say, inventories in 2000- 2002, or maybe even 1990-1992.
You guys will like this: from http://slcrealestate.blogspot.com/
“Unfortunately Casey Serin isn’t the only person who’s been taken advantage of when it comes to real estate.”
hahahaha Right. Poor Casey.
I printed out an AmeriSave loan disclosure form for a hypothetical loan of $450K on a $500K purchase. They disclosed all the information that is relevant *except the fully-amortizing P&I payment amount* — they didn’t unfairly change the attributes or font size of the sections or amounts most likely to appeal to the borrower.
What I noticed is that the minimum payment required (neg-am), $1,172 per month, was absolutely riveting. Mind you, I do not need to borrow money to buy a house — this was just to see what all the hoo-rah is about. The I/O payment would be $2,297. I calculate that a 30-year fixed rate P&I at the same interest rate (a bit high at 7.321%) would be $3,091 if paid from day One.
It dawned on me that people who want to buy a house, particularly if they’ve found one they really like, will see ONLY that ($1,172) minimum monthly payment. Next thought was that there probably are MANY more people on the hook, with mortgages for which they cannot handle the re-sets, than even we bears in general have estimated to date.
Works for me. Hope this dude is right
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/248f0f20-e249-11db-af9e-000b5df10621.html
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Smart people, professionals as well as savy speculators, are selling out and some selling short.
My prediction is S&P 500 down 15-15% from the Feb peak.
Loaded with puts on homebuilders and financials,
Jas
Me too, Jas. I played the first W move because you know it never ends that quickly but I’m short again (at a better cost than the first time!) and ready to watch the show.
It should not surprise anybody. The markets will go down, the question is when.
“Around 25 per cent of Blue Planet’s portfolios are now in cash.”
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chickenfeed compared with Berkshire Hathaway’s cash as a percentage but especially as a total figure.
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Sorry, I meant to say down 15-25% by June.
What is my basis?
I expect very ugly home sales reports, New as well as Existing, when the data for April and May are released. By that time there will be many signs pointing to the fact that the US economy is already in a recession.
Jas
Two big law firms in Dallas (Vial, Hamilton and Jenkens & Gilchrist) have already disbanded. J&G was not because of the economy but it still put people on the street. In 1989 to about 1992, law firms were laying people off left and right, lawyers and staff. Luckily for me, I was in the bankruptcy section, a high demand area. I figure that will happen again.
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“Two big law firms in Dallas (Vial, Hamilton and Jenkens & Gilchrist) have already disbanded.”
Did they have RE clients? It is usually a good indicator of bubble burst.
Jas
Txchick: I wish I had your investing savvy. I don’t know enough to short the market. I’ll just wait it out like I did in 2002 and buy after the fall. That worked pretty well.
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2007/04/04/news/01shortsale040407.txt
“For Distressed Homeowners, Short Sales Stave Off Credit Ruin
Wednesday, April 4, 2007 | As a growing number of homeowners stare down the barrel of foreclosure, some are electing to negotiate with lenders to sell their homes at a loss, hoping to avoid the credit-marring implications of surrendering the home to the bank.
Lenders might take losses of tens of thousands of dollars instead of repossessing the home and putting it up for auction. The auction process would incur additional costs for the bank and may result in a meager selling price. Homeowners, in turn, avoid getting slapped with a seven-year black mark on their credit.
“They tend to insulate the market from the worst effects of the foreclosure problems,” said Rick Sharga of RealtyTrac, a national real estate data firm. “They do that by allowing properties to be sold at the earliest stages of foreclosure, the notice-of-default stage, at less of a discount that they might at, say, a foreclosure auction.”"
“All men dream; but not equally. Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds wake in the day to find that it was vanity; but the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act out their dreams with open eyes, to make it possible.”
T.E. Lawrence
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Pillars_of_Wisdom
You have *got* to see this!
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2757699799528285056
House price rollercoaster.
Good one…
Very interesting way to present the data. Thanks for the link.
check out: Mr. Dave on Mortgage resets
Youtube
http://tinyurl.com/2z24qw
Has anyone else considered shorting Google stock?
How much is gmail and a seach engine really worth?
$470 a share? While yahoo is at 31? Give me a break….
There are definite rumblings under the stock market…
Also - is it odd to anyone else that “Jack in the box” stock is higher than Oracle’s?
You better go short BRK right away, because it must be way overpriced at over $100,000 a share.
ROFL!
hurdy hurdy, yuk yuk yuk.
That might be a good idea…
I wonder how much of GOOG’s revenue comes from subprimes and Alt-A mortgage vendors. Any idea if this is substantial or not?
Agree GOOG looks pricy selling at 14x annual sales and a P/E in the high 40’s. If the economy tanks, GOOG will go with it.
Cute cartoon about housing prices and consumption:
http://catandgirl.com/view.php?loc=440
check this realtor’s comments on this house in Placer county, ca
http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/home_detail.jsp?listing_num=70031236&page=1&property_type=SFR&mls=mls_sacramento&cKey=81q8d815&source=MFMLS
You all should check out the latest posts on mnots weblog. I’ll try to post this again a bit earlier tomorrow.
http://www.mnot.net/blog/2005/03/05/house
Subprime Turmoil May Hurt Prime Borrowers
http://finance.yahoo.com/loans/article/102745/For-Mortgage-Market,-It-Is-Time-for-Prime
“The bottom line is that, for solvent home buyers at least, the next several months look very bright. Lenders will be competing more for their business; low mortgage rates are unlikely to go up; and home prices in many areas will go down.”
Solvent home buyers, hurry quick and try to catch yourselves a falling knife!
IMF: US subprime problems “contained”(?)
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IMF plays down effect of US slowdown
By Krishna Guha in Washington
Published: April 5 2007 02:24 | Last updated: April 5 2007 02:24
The US slowdown should not drag down the economies of the rest of the world as long as the US economy does not succumb to full-blown recession, the International Monetary Fund says on Thursday.
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF said the factors currently slowing the US economy – “primarily housing and manufacturing” – are so specific to the US that they have had a “limited global impact”.
“Most countries should be in a position to decouple from the US economy and sustain strong growth if the US slowdown remains as moderate as expected,” the report says.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/74afc330-e2d7-11db-a1c9-000b5df10621.html