“The Frenzy Of Years Ago Is Over”
The Boston Globe reports from Massachusetts. “In recent years, a new breed of mortgage company, the subprime lender, exploded onto the scene. The subprime market, which grew from nothing to a $600 billion-a-year business in 2006, brought the American Dream to a larger slice of the population than ever before.”
“But the price, for many, was too high. More than half of the record 20,000 Massachusetts homeowners who received foreclosure notices from lenders last year had subprime loans.”
“Ivan and Christine Estrada could not afford the mint-green saltbox they bought in Winthrop for $315,000. Two loans from Atlanta-based SouthStar Funding LLC, whose operations in Massachusetts were halted by state regulators yesterday, financed the home’s full price.”
“Within months of buying, the couple’s $2,918 monthly payments depleted their small cushion of savings. On the loan application, his income was listed as $6,500 a month, but pay stubs from his full-time job at a rental-car company show he earned about $2,200 a month there last year, excluding overtime.”
“The Estradas said they learned about the inaccuracy only when a friend, Boston lawyer Maria Banciforte , reviewed their original loan documents after the Estradas were rejected by at least three major lenders for refinancing they sought to reduce the payments. ‘Why didn’t I catch that?’ Christine Estrada said.”
“Prime Mortgage Financial Inc. in Southborough, which served as the broker for the Estrada loan, said it has a signed application from the borrower. Prime’s loan salesman, Scott McLaughlin, said he tried to talk the couple out of the loan. ‘I told them at the time that I thought it was going to be unaffordable, but she also said she was going to be back to work soon,’ he said.”
“Christine and Ivan Estrada disputed McLaughlin’s version of events. McLaughlin ’said we would be able to refinance in six months’ if they paid the loan on time and ‘made us feel so secure that it would happen,’ Christine Estrada said. That strategy could have worked, if home prices had kept going up.”
“The couple missed their February and March payments. If they are unable to save their home, they and their three children will rent again. They will also have to contend with the fallout from foreclosure. ‘Now our credit’s ruined,’ Christine Estrada said.”
“Even selling the home might not solve their financial problems; the real estate website Zillow.com estimates the value of their property at $302,000, which is not enough to pay off their loans.”
“When Angela Mitchell refinanced her subprime loans with a new subprime loan, the single mother’s fate was sealed. Nearly two weeks ago, a judge gave her until May 1 to vacate her Dorchester condominium, which was seized in foreclosure.”
“Mitchell obtained two loans from New Century’s broker in February 2005. The combined payments started at $1,705 but would have risen this month to $1,902 if the primary loan’s ‘teaser’ interest rate, 5.9 percent, surged to 7.4 percent, her loan said.”
“A year ago, feeling burned by her first loan salesman, she found a new broker through a friend and refinanced into a single mortgage, borrowing an additional $28,000 to help pay other debts. Her friend, Mitchell said, ‘thought he was helping me out.’”
“Mitchell’s new loan increased her payments $700 a month to $2,401. It carried an initial rate of 9.4 percent, with a maximum rate of 14.4 percent over the mortgage’s life, according to documents.”
“Mitchell used more than half of the $28,000 in cash she received from the refinancing to pay other debts. She reasoned that by paying other bills, ‘I would have more money to pay for my mortgage,’ she said. In hindsight, Mitchell said, ‘It was a dumb move.’”
The Providence Journal from Rhode Island. “Rhode Island’s housing prices declined in February, with condos falling farthest, according to a report released yesterday by The Warren Group in Boston.”
“The statewide median price of a condo in February was down nearly 15 percent, to $219,500, compared with $258,000 a year earlier. Condo sales since January have fallen nearly 9 percent during the same period.”
“In February, the statewide median price of a single-family house fell about 4 percent, to $249,250, compared with $260,000 during the same month last year.”
“Bristol, Newport and Washington Counties all reported single-family house sales rose by double-digits in February, but the median prices in all three counties declined. The most dramatic decline was in Bristol, where the median price of a single-family house in February fell 31 percent, to $255,500, compared with $370,250 a year earlier, according to the report.”
From Conntact in Connecticut. “Real estate is an industry with an ever-evolving vocabulary. The buzzwords ‘frenzy,’ ‘flurry’ and ‘active’ have recently been eclipsed by ‘normalized,’ ‘changing’ and ‘lull.’”
“According to Realtors in North Haven, the total number of homes sold in 2006 dropped 11 percent from the year before, to 6,565.”
“‘That bump with subprime rates [a nationwide shakeout among subprime mortgage lenders] was unfortunate,’ (said) Paul Gradwell, president of the Greater New Haven Association of Realtors. ‘It did fuel the economy [before the collapse], but we’ve warned a lot of our agents that they might want to encourage people who have loans in some of these defunct companies to seek out other financing options.’”
“‘That frenzy of years ago when activity basically doubled [annually] is over,’ says Michael Marsden, a Realtor in Guilford. ‘In 2001 through 2003, people were asking lofty prices and getting them. Now we look at the market to be more of a normal pace. People are not putting in multiple bids on houses, they can take their time. There is some wait-and-see going on.’”
“Statewide, there were 8,073 new housing permits awarded in 2006 and 466 in January of this year.”
“‘If you price your house based on what you really want and not try for a fistful of stars, you’ll get activity, you’ll get close to your asking price,’ he says. ‘There’s too much inventory for sellers to wait for someone to meet their high asking price. In Madison and Guilford, the inventory has grown by 50 percent each year.’”
“All agree that Connecticut has become more of a buyer’s market over the past 18 to 24 months.”
“‘It’s all about value,’ says Sue Clifford, a Realtor in Madison. ‘[Unlike] the good old days where we were bidding and grabbing houses, today houses sell for close to asking price when they’re priced appropriately.’”
“‘There is no longer that impulse of ‘I have to buy it right now at asking price before it slips through my fingers,’ explains Clifford. ‘There is a bit of caution with buyers now.’”
Why didn’t Estrada notice that her app stated an income 3x what her husband really made? Hmmm. I wonder.
Yeah, but this is how the spinmeisters try to “contain” what’s happening. You keep reading crap like this and can dismiss it as people who were just stupid and didn’t know what they were doing. Then you read that foreclosures are mostly lower priced houses. That’s a common one. You’ll know we’re really into the meat of this move when the stories are about Buffy and Muffy who make 180K between them being foreclosed on their 700K McMansion and Muffy having to go back to work. The horrors!
more “victims”
yawwwwwwwn
Although it’s a stretch, making 180K a year, you should be able to afford a 700K home, right?
That’s way outside of my comfort range, but it’s not just stupidity. Now, the 10X income that I have heard and seen, that’s insantiy (1.8M for Muffy and Buffy!).
god forbid muffy gives up designer handbags and weekly pedicures.. She deserves them!
What will Muffy do? There are no realtor (TM) job openings anymore? Where are the Muffy-style jobs? From yesterday’s blog I gather that even the pole-dancing profession will get overcrowded…
Probably go back to being a “fluffer”.
So what happens to prices when no one can get a loan based on their “real” income?
They start slowly sinking into the Abyss.
As opposed to their “deserved” income?
I predict….Nothing good for housing values.
Mike,
I think you are on to the next big thing!
Old : NINA loan (No Income, No Asset)
New: DIDA loan (Deserved Income, Deserved Asset)
I predict…Nothing good for housing values.”
Depends on your point of view.
For me, the decline in housing values is good, as I will be a first time home buyer once sanity returns to the market. For the FBs, you’re right, it won’t be good.
“So what happens to prices when no one can get a loan based on their “real” income?”
————-
umm…people won’t be able to buy until the prices become ‘real’ prices? that’s what I think
normally people paid around 4x their income for a home; at the peak in bubble areas (LA for instance) it was 10-12x income
that gives you an idea how far prices have to fall. NO ONE (except a few here) are even contemplating that sort of a fall…that is why I think the country is in for a tremendous shock
Economics 101 kicks in.
The price reverts to what people can pay.
Methinks he changed his name from erik to ivan, when nobody was looking.
a well known pusher of the Arkansas Glengary Glen Ross lifestlye.
‘Why didn’t I catch that?’ Christine Estrada said.”
greed?
Generally under contract law what you sign is what you sign. Is this moron trying to say the amount was changed after it was signed? I can see this happening, but more often than not, stated income is stated income.
Because you colluded with your broker to come up with a fake income that would get you the loan. And had your RE continued to appreciate, you would have been happy with your lie. Now that it’s not working for you, you’ll lie again.
Nice to see the old saw, “liars never prosper” in action.
I’m sure there’s a cardboard box with your name on it somewhere.
Yes, I just received an invite to the Estradas’ Premier Pity Party and I r.s.v.p‘d with a resounding NFW.
Too many of these greedy victim whiners to bleeping count.
Yea I’m calling “BS” on this. She didn’t catch it? She claimed it! But she doesn’t look like a victim if everyone knows she lied. It’s always someone else’s fault…
> the couple’s $2,918 monthly payments …
> he earned about $2,200 a month
Um- why didn’t they catch THAT!
I have absolutely zero sympathy for anybody who would sign up for a loan with payments higher than their monthly income.
Seriously, they knew what the payment was, and they’re claiming that they knew their pay wasn’t $6,500/month, but was misrepresented as that. So they’re basically saying they knew that the payment was higher than what they made, but now they’re surprised victims that they can’t pay it. I call BS too. Not that it had to be analyzed that deeply, but yes, I call BS.
Why didn’t they have their friend Boston lawyer Maria Banciforte review the original contract BEFORE they signed? People are just stupid (or pretend to be after their greedy plan didn’t pan out).
Obviously they could not afford a couple thousand dollars to have an attorney represent them in the transaction. They must not have even had a down payment on this one… how could you save up any $$ with a family of five earning 2200/month?
But she’s their FRIEND. I understand not being able to afford to hire someone to do this (no, I take that back…I don’t understand that…FAR too important NOT to have someone verify the legitimacy if I can’t do that myself). Anyway, if I had an attorney friend, I’d sure as shoot ask them to look at my contracts.
And if I wanted to keep that friendship with my attorney/friend, I’d pay him or her to do the work. Yeah, I know. I’m funny that way.
Ditto, but if I were the attorney and my friend came to me for help, I’m sure I’d discount it for them (if not review for free). Guess it’d all depend on the level of friendship.
greed? more likely fraud or complete idiocy. How someone can not read through the full contract is beyond me. It is one of if not the biggest purchase of your life, and you skim over it? yah right.
“More than half of the record 20,000 Massachusetts homeowners who received foreclosure notices from lenders last year had subprime loans.”
So the “almost half” of foreclosure notices in Mass WEREN’T subprime loans. Sorry, this is about affordability, subprime mess might be a symptom but not the cause.
Geeah - I may have said it before, but there’s an old Wall Street adage that applies to all markets, real estate included:
“The weakest fall first.”
Trust your instincts…..
I just trust this place! Seriously, finding and listening to some of the folks on this site saved me from drinking the KoolAid this year… When i found this place I was beginning my journey to home ownership and luckily found this place… which inspired me to look beneath the hype and really try to see what’s going on. It’s done nothing but serve as a reminder about personal finances and the work required to keep yourself in good shape.
I second your thoughts, geeah. I felt like I was the only one noticing how ridiculous house prices were, and now I understand why. The wisdom I’m getting here will help me with my future investing.
Ditto, though I wasn’t ready to buy last year. I am now and I’m waiting.
But it is nice to have a place to go where you don’t get this scenario:
Polly: I just can’t afford [mortgage at least 4x her salary].
co-worker: With a good initial rate you can.
Polly: If I can’t afford a 30 year fixed mortgage, I can’t afford it.
co-worker: You have to take some risk….
No, I don’t. My risk is the 20% down payment I have saved up. I work for the federal government and while we get tiny little cost of living increases each year (better than some working stiffs, I know), the upside I can see in real raises is very limited. However, I like this job a lot and it is pretty secure.
DC is another one of those areas that is supposed to be “different” and while I can see some parts of the market being more affected than others, there has been plenty of speculation here. Not sure I want to live in those areas/buildings, so I’ll have to wait for the price adjustment to trickle into places I do want to live.
DC is “different?” Bwahaha…
Polly, I don’t know how long you’ve been around, but you would not believe how bad it got in DC the last time real estate got frothy (late 80’s). It crashed, hard. You could buy condos in Dupont Circle and Georgetown for 50-70 times the cost of one month’s rent. You could buy 4 bedroom houses in Cleveland Park, walking distance to the Red Line Metro, for 300K and less.
Be patient - history has a nasty habit of repeating itself.
Exactly, The subprimes are the weakest and will shake out first, but loans made in the ALT-A and Prime arena will end up being the real story.
Yup. When San Diego crashed in the early 90’s there were no sub prime loans. The closest thing we had to “exotic loans” back then were ARMs, which were very popular as fixed rates were much higher back then. But even back then there was a glimmer of insanity, as the ARMs had 6-12 month teaser rates, and borrowers were qualified at those phoney rates.
So true. Even those with good credit, some savings, good incomes bought more house than they should. It will just take them longer to fail.
I’m in shock… even as bearish as I am I didn’t expect HALF of the foreclosures to be non-sub prime. Gulp. Those were expected to be on my radar in six months, not spring 2007…
Oh, this will get interesting fast.
Got popcorn?
Neil
The subprimes are the weakest and will shake out first, but loans made in the ALT-A and Prime arena will end up being the real story.
HELOCs will be the last subprimes.
I predict the situation will only get worse. People are stretching budgets to the brink of disaster. There is nowhere to go but down.
For example, today I was browsing deeds and mortgages for a new development on the recorder of deed’s website here in Cook County (Chicago).
Townhomes sell for ~$400K+; Small homes for ~$550K and Large homes for ~$750K+. (the Residences of Old Irving for those of you who are interested).
A majority of the townhome purchasers put only 5% or 10% down. About half used 2nd mortgages. Anyway you look at it, a $360K mortgage on a $400K townhome isn’t cheap.
The small homes were a tad better. There were a limited number of them for sale and most purchasers put at least 15% or 20% down; some put more.
The shocker though, and I mean shocker, were the large homes for $750K+. Almost every purchaser used 100% financing. One woman with a foreign sounding name financed 100% of her $803K purchase. That doesn’t make any sense. It’s like the banks are giving money away.
Then I Googled the names of the deed holders. In today’s world, if you’re making some money, your name is probably on the internet, somewhere. Google the names of the owners of real homes in my neighborhood and you’ll find doctors, lawyers, bankers, professors, small business owners, consultants, sales people, etc. When I Googled the names of the buyers of the new development, I could barely find anything about them. I figured out that one guy was a musician and the another did something with computers. That’s it. I can’t figure out the newest homeowners in my neighborhood do for a living. Yet they’re buying expensive new construction homes!!!
Sometimes I think, “I’m an attorney and I can’t even afford the cheapest of those new townhomes. What am I doing wrong???” It was this sentiment that brought me to the HBB. A few threads later I realized it was toxic financing that made it possible.
I too could buy one of those condos. I could put 3% (or less!) down, get a I/O or teaser rate, ’state’ i.e. ‘lie’ about my income and devote over 50% gross income to my mortgage payment. You can too!!
These toxic mortgages are poison, and I suspect 5 years from now, most of this development will be vacant, foreclosed or worse, Section 8 housing.
The other thing is, these McMansion developers/teardown artists are just screwing with longtime established values in some of these neighborhoods. I have bitched and bitched and bitched about the ones in parts of inner city Dallas - taking a very stable 30 year plus neighborhood and just blasting the prices into the stratosphere without any regard to whether that works with the type of people who traditionally buy there. And despite the fact that these monstrosities are no longer selling and there is high inventory/no financing available, they are STILL tearing down and building this crap.
examples. Now this is a neighborhood where for 30+ years nothing ever sold over about 300K:
http://dallas.craigslist.org/rfs/305746289.html
(look at the cheap Home Depo cooktop in the kitchen pic for a 500K house, unreal)
http://dallas.craigslist.org/rfs/305759149.html
- insane price, it will never sell now that the money spigot is off
Those McMansions will eventually come down in price. I imagine they’ll eventually be in line with the other comps in the neighborhood. But how many years will it take?
Those quick-built cardboard&Tyvek McMansions will probably fall down before their prices do.
Chick, you’ve really nailed it with this one! Good on ya.
Aside about that rangetop with no obvious ventilation:
Apparently, no one who buys thats kitchen is afraid of the long-term exposure to smoke. The incompletely burned carbon chains are full of interesting chemicals; studies on Indian reservations (where indoor stoves without venting are common because of expense) show nicely elevated cancer rates for the women who do the cooking.
Ventilation in a kitchen is a good idea.
You’re not supposed to actually cook in those things (kitchens) are you?? When not dining at the hippest restaurants in town, I thought you were supposed to use heloc’s to pay for take out every night.
My exact sentiment about these over-equipped good looking kitchens that I have seen lately. Does one know how much work is needed to keep such kitchens cleaned after cooking. The arrangments sometimes are for look only and not practical. My reasons have been that the women who bought these houses do not cook at home. And for sure, I know a couple personally. They just bought a McMansion with a real nice kitchen, designer tiled wall, granite counter top, big-name professional stainless steel appliances and completely decorated with a 3-foot-chef statue holding a chalked-board menu (the one that you only see in front of a French restaurant). Well, she DOESNOT cook except for once or twice a year around Christmas time for family gathering. “Souplantation” is their chef at most night.
Not even eating enough at home to enjoy the house.!!!!
?-)
Thanks, I’ve never heard about that. We’re health nuts, but I never turn on my exhaust fan unless it gets too smokey. I will start doing that!
It’s cute that it’s in the kitchen island.
But maybe they were thinking that an electric range doesn’t need ventilation.
The ‘mental institution’ master bath is a plus.
The second one, I think I see the shoehorn still jammed between the houses.
You know what’s really interesting? We have clerks in every state/county government that file away all this information such as foreclosure filings, amount of sale versus amount financed, types of loans, number of homes sold, number of investor owned, and just about every other usefull statistic that government could use to monitor the health of the housing market, but yet they don’t tally any of it up and report it to the public. Why is that? Instead, we get all our data from either the corrupt industries themselves, or private enterprises selling the data such as foreclosure.com. I looked up pre-foreclosures on foreclosure.com yesterday for two of our counties here in Maryland. They report there are “NONE.” One of those counties has hundreds. That’s what these big mouth politicians should be changing about this picture…
The really interesting thing, is that in general what is or is not reported no longer matters. The govt may try and hide these problems for a while, but in the end it will unfold as it will. I remember telling people two years ago, that with all the funny loans around, we would be seeing vast numbers of foreclosures, and they just responded that this would not happen, since they could just refinance or sell… OOPS!
Patch,
Great point. Heck, why not put this stuff together FOR SALE? Surely you could easily sell current as well as historic information to various RE, banking and other parties.
Oh, I forgot, heaven forbid any government agency do anything to a) provide service b) create revenue streams
Not entirely true; to take Massachusetts, for example, the Middlesex North Registry of Deeds publishes in-depth, and completely non-sugarcoated statistics (the clerk explicitly reminds readers that it took five years for the same trends to play out in the last housing crash, and that this bubble is far greater) regarding foreclosures etc. in the Lowell Sun every month. The exception rather than the rule, obviously, but there is some data out there. Highly recommend taking a look:
http://www.lowelldeeds.com/blog/index.php/2007/04/03/march-stats-2/
Those prices at 4000 N Kolmar? Beverly Hills that is not.
4000 N Kolmar exactly. Has anyone seen these monstrosities? They’re hideous. They’re enormous boxes with a roof. A huge rectangle with a few shingles to top. The individual houses have very small lots with almost no yard. There are no street - only narrow alleys. Think about that: NO STREETS! The residents have to traverse these little alleys to get in and out of the subdivision. The developers packed as many houses as they could into that subdivision. I feel congested even driving by the development. Sure, the large houses are 4,000 sq feet……1,000 feet on each level, from the basement to the top floor! Did I mention there are no streets, only narrow alleys that abut the garages?
I actually tried to drive around in there one day to check them and it took 2 seconds to hit the dead end and 5 minutes to get my car turned around to go back out!
“That doesn’t make any sense. It’s like the banks are giving money away.”
It’s not their money. That’s the crazy thing about our modern lending system: You get to lend someone else’s money for a fee. What’s more, when things go wrong, you simply shrug your shoulders and raise your palms in the air, then quickly walk across the street and request BK protection.
Consequence free lending: It’s the new paradigm. Did you miss the shift?
“What’s more, when things go wrong, you simply shrug your shoulders and raise your palms in the air, then quickly walk across the street and request BK protection.”
Remember the Savings and Loan crisis, anyone?
I would suggest that the reason noone showed up on your google search is that the person does not exist.
That doesn’t make any sense. It’s like the banks are giving money away.
I am wondering if this was not a scheme to pump hundreds of billions of dollars of liquidity into the economy to avert a collapse after the dot come crash and spetember 11.
If it was, it was very short sighted.
It was and it is.
Ha, ha. The govt, Fed/banks pump and dump like crazy, maybe $1T/yr or more. Ever wonder why your taxes didn’t go up for Iraq, Katrina, Regan’s “supply side” economics, etc? The Fed just “created” it, and added onto your child’s future taxes. It’s called inflation, the pols just do this instead of raising taxes.
The idiots who bought all this “liquidity”, MBS crap, are going to get burned, big time. It will be interesting to see if FNM, etc “implied” guarantee for the crap will be redeemed or not.
Debt would be paid by children, inflation is paid mostly by the wealthy at the time the inflating occurs (as the poor see incomes rise to mirror the increased cost of living). Inflation is a hidden tax not a future tax.
“as the poor see incomes rise to mirror the increased cost of living”
Guess you didn’t catch that Circuit City memo about firing and rehiring at lower pay?
The wealthy get first dibs on the debt money created (and the interest owed) by the poor when the poor sign on the dotted line for mortgages, car loans, cheap ugly a$$ clothes at Walmart…
Inflation is an increase in the supply of debt. All money is debt. Money does not exist until it is borrowed into existence. The debt supply is increased every time a sap signs on the dotted line for a loan.
Your job was to get your hands on it before the inflation of prices ripples through the economy. I say was, because now the leverage is working in the opposite direction. Now, your job is to get your hands on the newly created debt so that you have a chance in the unfolding hell to service your previously created debt - debt that you borrowed from the future (with your house/future wages/car as collateral) and blew like a drunken sailor.
Will somebody from Boston/New England please explain what a “saltbox” is? It sounds suspiciously like “sh*tbox.”
It’s one of those square houses with no wings or anything.
http://tms.ecol.net/realestate/sty_salt.htm
It’s a traditional New England home style, which has roughly the same shape as the containers that salt was kept in ~300 years ago. Nothing sh*tty about it. Saltboxes tend to be modest in size; no one’s really building them anymore.
The saltbox was the style of house built by the earliest settlers in coastal New England, with a central chimney, central doorway, with a shed along the back sharing the roof line from the second floor. You have a two story or 1 1/2 story facade, with a half-story in the rear.
It was a precursor to the cape house. In the late 18th century some 3-story,fairly grandiose versions started to be built. Nostalgic WASPs like these, especially with unfinished cedar shake siding, lots of cast Iron implements scattered around the interior decoration, and so on. If ‘Colonial’ is what you want, but 18th century Georgian is too nouveau riche for ya, this is what you want. Blond kids and golden retriever are optional.
“In recent years, a new breed of mortgage company, the subprime lender, exploded onto the scene. The subprime market, which grew from nothing to a $600 billion-a-year business in 2006,…
Looks like it’s well on its way to going back to where it came from - nothing.
What the heck were they thinking? The level of irresponsibility from all parties in the subprime sector is astounding. These guys are too irresponsible to bail. If they get a free pass the behavior will not change.
Yep, in fact you’ll create more of this behavior. Subsidize anything and you’ll get more of it. Somehow, the govt has never seemed to figure this out.
““The Estradas said they learned about the inaccuracy only when a friend, Boston lawyer Maria Banciforte , reviewed their original loan documents after the Estradas were rejected by at least three major lenders for refinancing they sought to reduce the payments. ‘Why didn’t I catch that?’ Christine Estrada said.”
“Prime Mortgage Financial Inc. in Southborough, which served as the broker for the Estrada loan, said it has a signed application from the borrower. Prime’s loan salesman, Scott McLaughlin, said he tried to talk the couple out of the loan. ‘I told them at the time that I thought it was going to be unaffordable, but she also said she was going to be back to work soon,’ he said.”
Brings a new meaning to the term “liar loans” but in this case who is the liar?
It’s a buyers market when prices drop 30% for houses.
The bottom line is house prices are unaffordable and everyone with skin in the game or a lifestyle at risk is kicking and screaming in denial.
Here in San Diego, where prices are up 200 - 400 % a 30% reduction still leaves virtually everything out of my affordability range, as a senior software engineer. Some non bubble areas 20 - 30% may do it, but not around here.
I hear you. A house that has dropped from 700K to 500K is still unaffordable. It will take one heck of a foreclosure party to get prices lower in the near term. Maybe if San Diego took another economic hit like when all the defense contractors closed shop and left town in the early 90’s (say if the Navy closed all its bases).
I think that maybe the only way to get a home in San Diego will be to inherit one.
“I think that maybe the only way to get a home in San Diego will be to inherit one.”
I would almost agree with you until you realize that alot of people down here consider their home their “retirement,” which means that they have to cash out and move. I will say that housing will always be expensive here….just not stupid like it has been.
It *will* be affordable. Just look at what the average household can really afford. The market will get there. Even now there has been the occasional blip of a house sold at 2001 prices!
You only have to go back about 7-8 years and there were plenty of places in town to be had for less than $250K! It will get there again.
I agree that it will normalize. It might takes some time.
As far as cashing out and leaving, we will see. I still have many firends in San Diego, and they aren’t going anywhere. They talk about cashing out, but they they aren’t too keen on relocating, especially if the new locations has icky stuff like snow in the winter. We have some friends in San Marcos who we have been cajoling to sell their broken down dump for 500K or whatever it would have fetched and moving to Colorado, where they could buy a much nicer house for about 200K. But they are used to living in SoCal, and the family is local, so a relocation means moving away from parents and siblings.
Its interesting your friends aren’t cashing out.
I have three coworkers cashing out between now and June (per plan).
Also, companies cannot grow at reasonable cost in So-Cal… so for example my company expects to win a contract that would require hiring 2,000 people. Instead of hiring 2,000 more people in California… We’ll transfter 1,400 to Houston from California and hire 2,000 new in Texas.
If we don’t win the contract? California will still lose 1,400 jobs anyway.
Note: Our competition is doing worse. Wait for the summer… the number of relocations that are going to occur will be… interesting.
Not a popcorn situation.
Neil
“I have three coworkers cashing out between now and June (per plan). ”
Neil, do you think they are motivated by fear of lay-offs, transfers and want to move into rentals for maximum flexibility?
Cashing out will be VERY VERY popular in CA. One more reason is this: the more equity you have, the shittier/older your home is likely to be thus making it a no brainer. More newer homes were bought recently with low down. However at least half or more do have several hundred K equity due to large down from previous sale - thus there will be lots of newer homes up for sale as you see now.
Door #1 : Keep crapshack with spanish speaking public schools and work 30 more years.
Door #2: Sell and take check for 500k tax free and retire way sooner (now?).
which is it?
I know there are reverse mortgages but that will be a niche and with prices on the decline for 10 years the checks will stop flowing when the equity evaporates.
I can’t even believe all the million + listings right now in Los Angeles/Ventura. Many many many are over 2 million. That range is getting clobbered (meaning list at 2.5 million, sell for 1.8) long way down…..
None of these three fear layoffs. They are all on track for promotions and would be retained even if we laid off twice as many people.
One is transfering due to his girlfriend insisting they buy a stand alone house pre-wedding.
One is transfering due to a desire to be closer to a soon to be born grandchild (children could not afford to buy in state).
One is tired of struggling; they are selling to “cash out” and live the easy life (buy an RV, boat).
Note: I haven’t mentioned one retirement. Its not even worth noting they’re going of state anymore.
Got popcorn?
Neil
The problem I see with “everyone” cashing out is that it would cause prices to plummet (OK, that in of itself would be good). But if prices normalize, then cashing out no longer implies that you get to flee with a ton of cash to a cheaper locale, so you might as well stay put.
Don’t get me wrong, I think that prices will normalize somewhat in SoCal. But Socal has been the ultimate bubble market fro the past 30 years, so as soon as things normalize I expect another bubble will start. That happend in the 90’s, and I wouldn’t be surpised if it happened again. The only thing I could see stopping it would be if the Aztlanistas take over California and secede from the US. Mortgage rates in the high single digits (or higher) could also keep the bubble from re-inflating.
Absolutely no sympathy for these DOPES!
Put them out in the street where they belong. let them rent at halfway house.
30% of 750,000 is more than 30% of 400,000.
It’s a good start.
The lenders and the borrowers need to lose their @$$@$.
I am tired of seeing dopes that have everything but own nothing but a payment they juggle each month.
“The statewide median price of a condo in February was down nearly 15 percent, to $219,500, compared with $258,000 a year earlier. Condo sales since January have fallen nearly 9 percent during the same period.”
Holly Shift! That’s not good. Prices are falling along with demand. Who is getting the shaft from the shift?
With numbers like that sellers have gotta be shifting in their pants.
That one from the Globe is amusing. Traditional lending standards would have required and income of $105K/yr to support a $315K mortgage, and that would have been stretching it. How is it that no one cared the family only made about $22K per year at the time of approval.
What ticks me off is that this is my competition for housing here in Mass. This is why I can’t/won’t buy an SFH any time soon. When idiots like the Estrada’s are buying at 14 x earnings, it prices the financially non-suicidal out of the market. I’ve been seeing new 3/2 homes in Wesport going for low $600’s. How many want to bet the only people buying at that price point today are also commiting financial hara-kari?
Not any more, they’re not. They can’t get loans. And thank goodness for that because these idiots keep breeding.
Not to boast but I make over $100k and there’s no way I’m paying more than 2.5x my income for a home (then subtract 20% down).
I have a student loan payment and I’m saving for retirement. I don’t like having less than $1500/mo in “float” each month that normally goes to short-term savings but can be used for an emergency if needed (like knee surgery or something).
3x income is too much. Add car payments that people have and kids (I’m single) and they definitely aren’t saving anything (short term OR retirement).
Agreed - I am (in Western Mass) not buying until I can get something good enough at 2X gross income. Since we are only 10% off the peak (market has only been dead since August… sellers need to suffer longer) I will be waiting a while.
Im in Santa Clara CA… we are looking for around3.0-3.5x which is historical norm. Rents are 40-50% of mortgages.
2x would be very nice, but I think you will be waiting a long time, or buying a home that might be smaller than you like.
You will always be competing with people who are willing to pay 3x to 4x. That’s better than competing with someone willing to pay 12x like the Estradas, but still won’t get you the house of your dreams.
This is the issue in all “desireable” markets. Even before suicide loans, housing in these markets has always been pricey, with people paying 4X (or more).
Now if you are willing to move to Podunk, things are different.
If they would have stuck to the golden rule, the house price should be at MAXIMUM 3 times income, they would have spent at most $80k. Instead they spent $225k more than they should have. Maybe the house they bought should have been $80k. This just shows how REALLY overpriced the market is.
Don’t these people at least do a rough calculation of what their monthly payments would be and then see if their income can sustain it? I just don’t understand how anyone can just “fall” into these kinds of loans? Why would anyone say: “Well, I only make $2,200 a month and the PITI is $3,500. But if the lender says it’s okay, then I’m okay.”??
“Worry is the interest paid by those who borrow trouble.”
George Washington
I have ZERO sympathy for the sub-prime mortgage industry (what’s left of it!) or the greedy bankers who financed the exotic loan fiasco. However, I also have ZERO sympathy for the likes of the Estrada’s. It’s the old, old story of, “Everybody in jail is innocent.” I’m sure there are many who didn’t understand the future ramifications of the documents they were signing BUT the vast majority did know what they were getting into but greed ruled their thinking and greed is the major element of their demise as property owners.
In the majority of cases, it was a case of these now fb’s thinking they were getting something for nothing or were getting a Cadillac (or should I say Lexus) when they only had enough to buy a Toyota Corolla. I’m constantly amazed that in America, where the saying, “There is no such thing as a free lunch,” is quoted almost as much as “God Save America”, people still figure that saying applies to others but not them.
“where the saying, “There is no such thing as a free lunch,” is quoted almost as much”
FWIW, I haven’t heard that phrase in a long, long, LONG time.
It’s been replaced with “sweet deal”.
Sent this to the Globe Article author.
Kimberley,
It appears that you are the designated person at the Globe to report on the current housing crisis in the state and country. There will be many opportunities for stories and I think that you will have job security for the next few years.
My only issue is that the articles attempt to portray the people being foreclosed upon are victims. I really think you are overlooking a huge story, and need to ask a follow-up question to these people. “Why did you buy more than you can afford? Why did you pull equity out of your home and refinance?” I think you will find the responses to shed light on some peoples feeling of entitlement and victimization. These people feel that they are entitled to a larger house than they can afford or more toys than they can afford. Then, when a problem arises, they are victims of evil mortgage companies.
There are really only 2 ways people signed on the dotted line for these toxic mortgages.
People who wanted to make a huge profit flipping the house. (Just like on TV because it is easy money)
Foolish people who did not take the time to understand what they were signing
As far as a bailout is concerned, why stop and helping those being foreclosed?
Hey, I bought some Sun Microsystems in 2000 and it tanked and I lost a lot of money. Can the government bail me out for my stupidity?
Hey, I gave my bank account to a Nigerian diplomat so they could wire money to my account and give me $50,000. But they stole my money. Can the government bail me out?
If Real Estate kept rising and they flipped the house would they then give some of their profit to those who did not make a killing.
I understand that discussing responsible saving and waiting to buy until you can afford is not sexy and does not sell papers. But I implore you to dig deeper and ask these people why they signed up to buy more than they could afford or why they pulled equity out. You may find a “Hospital Stay” or other emergency here and there. But you should also report on the current state of greed, lack of savings and sheer stupidity that has gotten us to this point where only a drastic reduction in home prices and stricter lending standards will bring this market back to reality.
Your forgot to ask for a bail-out on the lost equity due to the lower market value on your home. (Just tell them you had sense enough not to HELOC it out)
The first your=you
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1156
Now come on Guys. Don’t be so Hard on the Estrada’s. They didn’t Lie on their Application. Everyone knows Real Estate ALWAYS GOES UP 20% a Year. 315 k x 20% = 63K per Year Income from their Amazing Investment and with his $2200 a month He was Making $6500 a Month. GEEEEZZZZZZZ!
Another Candidate for my soon to Come Web Site . RealEstate4Idiots.Com
What about Idiots4RealEstate.com?
I say bail them out. BAIL THEM ALL OUT.. FREE MONEY FOR EVERYONE (except savers)!
BUHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
“If you do not wish to be lied to, do not ask questions. If there were no questions, there would be no lies.”
B. Traven
In a rare instance where the book and the movie were both of the utmost quality, I bring you:
http://www.amazon.com/Treasure-Sierra-Madre-B-Traven/dp/0809001608
The Nation has weighed in on another aspect of the subprime mess. In its April 9 edition it has run a “comment” entitled “The Loan Shark Lobby” in which it details some interesting financial connections between New Century Financial Corporation which just declared bankruptcy and members of Congress.
According to the article, nearly half of House Financial Services Committee members which have been holding hearings on the tanking of the subprime market have received money from New Century. Recipients named by The Nation include Chairman Barney Frank and members/heads of the financial subcommittee including Paul Kanjorski, Spencer Bachus, and Richard Baker. In all the company has given nearly $700,000 in campaign funds to legislators since 2004.
The article maintains that two bills that would have provided safeguards for consumers against some subprime lending abuses; the Prohibit Predatory Lending Act and the Predatory Mortgage Lending Practices Reduction Act both died after being referred to financial services subcommittees. New Century “took the lead” in pushing the Responsible Lending Act which The Nation maintains would have narrowed the definition of subprime mortgages and preempted some stricter state regulations. The bill’s “patron saint” was former Congressman Bob Nye of Ohio who is currently in federal prison serving a 30-month sentence for corruption. Nye received $49,300 in campaign contributions from New Century.
If one wonders if the changing of the guard will mean increased regulation of subprime lenders the article doesn’t hold out much hope. Mortgage bankers gave 40 percent of the $6.6 million they contributed to 2006 election campaigns to Democrats including Senator Hilary Clinton, Frank, and Senator Chris Dodd who heads the Senate committee concerned with banking.
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/432007_Subprime_Fiasco.asp
soo funny the Responsible Lending Act actually enables predatory lending.
People say government intervention always has opposite effect but maybe the man behind the man actually intends the ‘opposite agenda’ from the get go. Example war on poverty was INTENDED to keep people poor. War on drugs was INTENDED to keep illegal drug profits in certain hands. War on terror was INTENDED to increase terrorism (thus ensuring contination of funding for war on terror). Prescription drug bill radically increases costs of drugs, etc.
the people buying congressmen are NOT stupid.
“The subprime market, which grew from nothing to a $600 billion-a-year business in 2006, brought the American Dream to a larger slice of the population than ever before.”
By ‘American Dream’ I guess they mean buying a more expensive home than you can afford, showing it off to your friends for a few months, then being foreclosed on, losing what slim amount of savings you have, and having your credit ruined, thereby preventing you from buying when prices ultimately fall.
The “ownership society”. More like a “debtors society”.
Owning a home is good. So long as you can afford it. Anyone who thinks it’s an investment has fooled themselves. Mortgages are more like chains that enslave the owner.
Just wait until all these BabyBoomers sell try and sell their properties to fund their retirments….get ready for a suprise.
Prime’s loan salesman, Scott McLaughlin, said he tried to talk the couple out of the loan.
I’m sure he did. Poor Scott. I bet the liar loan was the FBs’ idea in the first place and they held a gun to Scott’s head, forcing him to do the loan and accept a modest commission.
The couple missed their February and March payments. If they are unable to save their home, they and their three children will rent again.
…as subprime renters. If I was their landlord, I’d demand for lease insurance.
I’d bet a lot of money that they become section 8 tenants, and the taxpayers foot the bills for these deadbeats.
Avalon Bay is certainly betting on it, they are sprouting everywhere in New England. Also, you can make up to mid-60’s and still qualify around here.
Personally I think the Section 8 program is enabling the rise of fascism. Many jobs do not pay a living wage, so the workers turn to the government to fill the income gap in the form of vouchers for housing, food and childcare. The vouchers, are redeemed through private corporations such as Avalon Bay. Either way two companies profit at the expense of the taxpayer and the worker.
You know what I’d like to see in all these articles? I’d like the BOZO REPORTERS to do some more researcg and list the $ amount made by the commission grubbing REIC characters - agents, brokers, LOs, etc.
What else is subject to the frenzy….
I was talking to my mom last night and she was saying furniture and big TVs and other items that are obviously “home” related like lawn and garden services.
People here have often mentioned expensive cars.
I think it goes even further:
Lasik surgery
cosmetic surgery
gym memberships
wine
other luxury alcohol (It’s VODKA, folks. It doesn’t really taste like anything.)
eating out in general.
Anyone want to add to the list? It just seems that a lot of stuff that nobody could afford when I was a kid are commonplace now.
The Boston Globe pulls out the race card approx every 10 days or so - surprised in this article they didn’t use it, athough they are already interweaving it with other real estate foreclosure articles
Of the 100’s of race baiting Globe stories -my favorite is last years story about “hidden racism” in the town of Andover - where they were interviewing half the residents of the town looking for secret racism
They couldn’t find any actual racism so they interviewed some professors from Boston or some other “experts” that claimed that sometimes minority members of a town would be victims in denial or w/o knowing they are really VICTIMs of hidden racism or a “feeling” even when they themselves don’t claim or say this
The GLOBE always on the hunt for racism particuarly as it concerns racial steering by brokers - their usual target Randolph, which invariably ends up in huge headlines about some issue, in a town which happens as it turns out to be heavily minority, because certain minority groups actually volentarily PREFER to live near members of their own race
“Looking for racism under every rock” The Boston Globe’s motto