“Staggering From A Glut Of Inventory” In Florida
The Palm Beach Post reports from Florida. “Palm Beach County Property Appraiser Gary Nikolits said homeowners shouldn’t expect their tax assessments to fall this year. The slumping housing market has caused prices to plateau, not plummet, with exceptions such as downtown West Palm Beach’s condo market.”
“‘There are pockets in this county that have seen significant decreases in market values, particularly in those areas that have been overdeveloped with condominiums and townhouse projects,’ Nikolits said.”
The Naples News. “Builders in unincorporated Lee County, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers Beach pulled 318 permits for single-family houses in March, 62 percent less than in March 2006.”
“Right now, ‘We’re at beginning of 2003 levels, but in 2003 it picked up toward the end of the year,’ said Mary Gibbs, head of community development.”
“Underlying the lower numbers, said Michael Reitmann, executive VP of the Lee Building Industry Association, is the huge inventory of homes for sale, which makes it less attractive for developers to build new ones.”
The Ledger. “The local economy just couldn’t gain much ground in February. Building permits and home sales continued their downward trend, according to The Ledger’s monthly Polk County Business Barometer.”
“In housing, the county’s 347 permits for new home construction fell 71 percent from 1,191 permits in February 2006. Existing home sales totaled 334 houses in February, falling 25 percent from 447 homes the year before. Lakeland had 197 homes sold, a decrease of 28 percent from 272 sales last year, while East Polk had 130 homes sell, an 18 percent drop from the prior year.”
“Bartow recorded seven homes sold, compared to 16 sales the year before.”
The Sun Sentinel. “Liz Randall says she is eager to buy a Lake Mary home that’s on the market for $419,000. But she doesn’t plan to make a move until another deal is reached at Florida’s Capitol.’
“‘I’m going to wait and see what happens with the state Legislature and property taxes,’ said Randall.”
“Real-estate brokers in Central Florida say the Legislature’s ongoing effort to overhaul the property-tax system is having its own dampening effect on a housing market already staggering from a glut of inventory.”
“Those in the real-estate business say such indecision is causing market uncertainty that could worsen, especially with speculation rising that a special session might be needed for lawmakers to winnow down the wide-ranging ideas now in play.”
“‘The way things are going, I wouldn’t want to sell my house right now,’ said Senator Steve Geller of Hallandale Beach.”
“Mary Ann Sigurdson, a Casselberry loan officer, said she sees the effect of the property-tax debate every day, with clients once eager to buy now getting cold feet. ‘We’re finding that you can’t close a deal,’ said Sigurdson.”
“The Orlando Regional Realtor Association reported last month that the number of homes and condominiums sold in the region fell in February by nearly 39 percent from the same month a year ago. Listings by local agents also grew that month to an all-time high of 22,055.”
Tampa Bay’s News 10. “Jennifer Beheler has lived in her house ever since she had her first child, But between the cost of insurance, property taxes and the mortgage it’s a struggle, ‘Our payments have almost doubled in fact they have doubled since we moved in.’ She may lose her home.”
“Jennifer’s not the only one having trouble holding on to her home. Foreclosures increased by 80-percent in Florida since last year. And around the bay it’s the same situation.”
“Polk increased by 55%. Hillsborough 76%. Pinellas 79%. Pasco 111%. Sarasota/Manatee 182%. Lee County had the highest increase since last year at 376-percent.”
The Herald Tribune. “In Florida the furniture industry is in one of its ugliest downturns in years. The housing boom that fueled huge sales at some furniture stores has turned into a housing bust, and some longtime furniture chains are shutting down or packing up and fleeing the state.”
“Spectrum Home Furnishings shut its eight stores from Sarasota to Naples in the fall after more than 20 years in business. Modernage on Florida’s east coast is holding a ‘Save Our Stores’ survival sale but warns it may close.”
“Everyone agrees that the housing slowdown is causing ripples across the Florida economy, and furniture stores are feeling it worse than most. In Florida, sales of existing single-family homes fell 23 percent in February compared with February 2006. Sales of existing condos fell 28 percent, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.”
“The developers behind City Marketplace, the 520,000-square-foot hotel, retail and residential project planned for downtown Punta Gorda, are heading back to the drawing board.”
“Changing market conditions, namely the huge slowdown in Southwest Florida’s condominium and residential housing market, has prompted developers to rethink the design and makeup of the project.”
“‘The market has changed. The concept we had before, we had to design the whole thing and build it at once,’ said Ron Oskey Jr., head of the Charlotte County Development Corp. ‘Now phasing is really important.’”
The Times Union. “Brooklyn Park, a heavily anticipated development on Riverside Avenue, is significantly changing its focus, transforming from a residential neighborhood to a retail-heavy project designed to be a destination for nearby residents.”
“The switch comes as Jacksonville’s housing market has cooled off substantially. The number of condominiums sold by Realtors in Jacksonville fell 42 percent in February when compared to February of last year, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.”
“‘The slowness in the housing market forced us to look at what other options were out there,’ said Miles vice president of development Jason Perry. ‘We like to get in and get out, not wait around for pre-sales.’”
The St Petersburg Times. “Richmond American Homes has pulled out of a contract to develop 85 lakeside homes on Lake Patience Road.”
“‘We’re not involved in that project any more,’ said Michael Murphy, who handles land sales at Richmond American. ‘The development cost just became too high. The deal just didn’t work for us.’”
“The pullouts came amid signs that the housing market still has not bottomed out. Inventories grow. Tampa Bay area home sales still struggle, falling 23 percent in February compared with a year earlier, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.”
“Recent problems in the subprime mortgage market, which lent to high-risk home buyers, have sparked a wave of foreclosures and hundreds of lost jobs at Tampa mortgage firms.”
“Developers have apparently tapped the brakes on even big projects like the 5,000-acre Wiregrass Ranch in Wesley Chapel.”
“As if last year’s dismal market performance wasn’t bad enough, the number of residential permits issued in Pasco County continues to slide this year.”
“Pasco sent out 552 permits in the benchmark category up to April this year, compared with 1,870 this time last year. Foreclosure suits rose 87 percent last year in the county.”
‘The asking price for a Venetian Islands home on East Dilido Drive in Miami Beach dropped 48 percent in eight months, to $2.59 million in January from $4.98 million last May, according the survey. The owner bought the house for $380,000 in 1990.’
In Miami Beach? $2.59 million? Keep dropping! Let’s try $1 million and see what happens.
I think the seller has at least another $1.5M to go.
Sorry for the repost ,but I think this is the most appropriate quote I have seen on Fl.
” Then everybody simultaneously saw the writing on the wall, and panic selling ensued. With thousands of sellers and very few buyers, prices came down with a sickening thud, twitched a bit, and then crawled down even lower.”
http://www.investopedia.com/features/crashes/crashes4.asp
My dad (lives in Vegas) and I (Phoenix/Tucson) were wondering if Florida is emerging as the winner of the Ground Zero Housing Bust. Vegas, SoCal, and Phoenix are plenty f@cked up for many shared and common reasons, but Florida really seems to be cacophony of all kinds of bad stuff particular to that area: (1) insurance; (2) hurricanes (which affects (1)); (3) social meltdown; (4) businesses fleeing b/c of high insurance. I guess we can offer some solace to FBs in CA, NV and AZ by simply telling them, “Hey man, it could be worse…you could be in Florida!”
Agreed - Naples to be exact.
Also add vicious property taxes and almost total lack of well paying jobs (i.e., industry).
Dillido… Dilldo drive…
What the ???
Yeah, I had to read that 5 times. And still the little dirty boy inside me giggled.
what’s next, Vybrater Lane?
I can just see this
Daughter: “Dad, Billy and I bought a house on Dillido ave?”
Dad:”You bought a what, Where…. Oh Jesus!”
Daughter:” Dad can we borrow some cash….
Dad considers his leaving life insurance to dog.
In the movie Office Space, the guy lived in a townhome complex called Morningwood.
With the reaming any buyers are going to get, they should drop the second “i” in the name of their street…
This is precisely why price drops are nothing to get excited about. Just because I lowered the selling price of my used Hummer by $50,000, the $100,000 I am still asking is laughable.
Bear — pretty decent analogy, IMO.
I went to the Consumer Price Index home page to calculate the present inflation-adjusted value of $380000 1990 dollars. It’s $592K. Assuming no wear and tear on the house since its 1990 purchase (for $380K), it’s worth $592K now, not $2.5 million.
It’s amusing that the Florida buyers described who are waiting for property tax decisions from the government will benefit serendipitously by falling prices. Dumb luck! We bought our first house in 1993, after the price crash, and didn’t even realize it.
Flippers in the Keys are trying legal moves to get deposits back:
http://www.keysnews.com/300482335664951.bsp.htm
“nvestors who had hoped to flip their condominiums before they even closed on their properties are suing the Santa Maria to return their $1 million in deposits. A second suit by another attorney is pending.
In a lawsuit filed in federal court last week, the seven investors allege the developer, real estate company and three of its agents engaged in “deceptive and unfair trade practices.” The suit claims they made false statements to the investors, leading them to believe they would be able to sell their condos quickly. “
Another lawsuit without merit. It is difficult for me to believe that any individual would invest $230K without reading the contract. Pigs go to the slaughter house.
“This has to do with people speculating in the real estate market. It was a nationwide trend in 2004 and early 2005. Prices had gone up 40 to 50 percent. They got pinched …. The market is bad. Even by their own words, they never intended to close on the units. “
So they were speculating and are now suing to recover their stake? What a joke. Try suing Harrah’s after you double down one too many times at the blackjack table.
Actually this happens. “They got me drunk and took my money”!
A gambler with alcohol, or a real estate investor with the Kool-Aid…..
Right. That’s why the headline of this piece is so appropriate:
Staggering from the Glut of Inventory
The entire RE market: agents, FBs, FFs, MBs, the whole crowd was drunk on itself and its perceived path to The Donald-ness.
Sometimes I wonder if a borrower might have a case to get their deposit back because they can’t get financing now that the sub-prime lenders have changed the qualifying .Another reason why it’s one-sided contract to give a non-refundable deposit when lending can change .
I’m sure most these flippers either didn’t plan on any financing or were going to sub-prime lenders .
I think in many States real estate contracts must be in writing to be enforceable .Are these flippers saying that they had a oral contract from the sales staff that they could sell the condos quickly ? Also if these flippers were sold units as a investment to flip ,I wonder if they put on their application that they intended to owner occupy ? Sounds like another pot calling the kettle black .
Also did the buider get the construction loan based on pre-construction selling to owner-occupant pre-construction sales when the developer knew all along they were selling to flippers ? Both sides of these pre-sale contracts are bad actors IMHO and the construction lender is the one holding the bag.
Maybe correct, but the sellers have SIGNED CONTRACTS and contract law is firmly established.
Oh yeah,
The Rule of Law thing and all…
Must be a little rusty, from being left out next to the shed, the past 6 years~
>>I think in many States real estate contracts must be in writing to be enforceable .>Are these flippers saying that they had a oral contract from the sales staff that they could sell the condos quickly ?
Um, they was going down the path to the Donald-ness, but they wound up at Donald-mess!
Got 10% down?
I wonder how his Donald-ness is doing these days?
Did you know that you can deduct gambling losses from your taxes of you itemize? It’s true! The theory is that if government can tax your winnings then you should also be able to deduct your losses.
Only to offset gambling winnings, and there is a time window.
I’d not rely too heavliy on contract law these days, just look at what they’ve done with everything else this country was founded on.
Your’e only allowed do deduct gambling losses from gambling winnings. (Say hello to Mr Auditor.)
To deduct gambling losses from your income you must prove that gambling is not a hobby, but rather your profession. Of course, said gambling must be of the legal variety.
“I’d not rely too heavliy on contract law these days, just look at what they’ve done with everything else this country was founded on.”
Destroying everything this country was founded on was done by contract law.
Accepting government benefits to educate, clothe, feed, house, and insure you and your families has consequences. Before you know it, those in charge are treating you like lazy, stupid, worthless incompetents.
I wonder how they would get that idea.
Ah, sitting in the sports book and trading drink coupons for losing tickets to cancel out winnings.
memories of my one and only good vegas trip.
Most of the time I’m receiving the free drinks. Looking in to my beer and lamenting my lost wages.
Hoz, I agree that contract law should prevail ,but you know any lawyer can make a case for bad faith or fraud by either party rendering the contract voidable .
IMHO , I don’t think the courts are going to allow “sale puff” to be considered enforceable contract law as a oral promise ,but who knows .
Wizard, When McDonald’s Restaurants were sued in Texas for serving coffee that was to hot. I regarded that law suit as a joke. When the jury ruled that McDonald’s was guilty and awarded the plaintiff 50K, I realized the courts can do anything. It is not that I regard our legal system as bad, it is rather that once a suit gets in front of a jury anything can happen.
The jury pools in the near future will have at least one FB sitting. I would hate to be a realtor on trial for a serious crime such as murder. The realtors fate would already be in negative hands.
Philly — another great analogy. I hope the MSM eventually picks up on a quote like that, so it gets into general circulation.
“Modernage on Florida’s east coast is holding a ‘Save Our Stores’ survival sale but warns it may close.”
Modernage Furniture has been around since I came to Florida in 1980. I don’t get it. If they were able to survive for the many years that Florida was not in a bubble, what’s the problem? In fact, I don’t get this phenomenon of businesses that have been around for years all of a sudden having to go out of business. They did OK before the bubble. But now, having been through a bubble, it seems they can’t do without the income that they did fine without pre-bubble. They’re acting like a bunch of crack addicts that can’t face withdrawal and would rather die.
Is that the REALLY annoying and loud “SOS” commercial I hear on TV about 10 times an evening? If so, I hope the either get saved or close soon, just so that stupid commercial will stop running.
When I was younger, I worked at a furniture store. We had a “going out of business sale” every year.
much like the successful restaurant owner that opens up three new stores, you can’t back pedal fast enough. expansion and leverage are a bitch on the way down.
A lot of the sales hype is just that -hype. I know stores here in Tampa area that are ALWAYS “going out-of-business”. However, the housing bubble was a credit bubble, which roughly translated means current sales are based on FUTURE INCOME.
Sales have slowed because they did 5 years of sales in 2 or 3 years, adjusted their staff and sales space for further “growth”, and now it’s not there. They made this year’s sales last year. So……….just like housing, there are NO BUYERS for all the inventory and all the associated costs. They are hurting.
IF they had anticipated a SLOWDOWN, they could have saved money from the past two years. Think they did?
They expanded and took on a bunch of overhead.
The expanded and, like everyone else, took on a bunch of DEBT!
Now, sales are down and the debt can’t be serviced = store closings and bankruptcy.
Once again, the triumph of greed over sense.
If you don’t expand now, you’ll get left behind forever!
What about this?
“The developers behind City Marketplace, the 520,000-square-foot hotel, retail and residential project planned for downtown Punta Gorda, are heading back to the drawing board.”
Punta Gorda is a poor, microscopic hick/growers’ town in the middle of nowhere with absolutely nothing. The notion of building something elaborate there defies comprehension. It is probably one of the worst places on Earth.
Plus, wasn’t Punta Gorda whacked by a hurricane a few years ago? Who the hell would buy there?
Palmetto — my wife and I remember ModernAge in Orlando from at least our high school years in the late ’50s-early ’60s. The other old one was Kane, which folded up some years ago but left its unusual concrete logo on Colonial Drive until fairly recently, as I recall.
Hi, Chip, Kane Furniture I think is still doing business in the Tampa Bay area, at least in Pinellas and Hillsborough.
But that’s interesting about Modernage, then it has been here longer than I thought. You’d think they’d be able to stay in business, but I guess as crisrose said, greed got the better of them.
Let’s take a look at all the building still going on, across this fair land.
From freshly graded flattened out pieces of land, to say 2/3rds done.
for the builders, it’s been a pyrrhic victory.
They were drunk with profits and they know that raw land really only has value, when you stick 37 houses on it and make it less raw and more lucrative.
All the materials needed to build those 37 houses, have been acquired and the construction guys are like family, you know. One last project, if you will. One for the boys…
When we start seeing these hardly started to almost done housing developments, stopped dead in their tracks
We will have crossed another rubicon…
Still bulldozing and site clearing in western Orange County, New York. When I bought this little house back in the early eighties the municipality had more registered holsteins than registered voters. Not so now. Builders are breaking ground as fast as they can move the equipment and run the survey tapes. Meanwhile, new for sale signs are emerging on the new construction two yaers old. And just down the road are a pile of starter castles that have been abandoned for more than a year with the shells complete and no doors or siding in place. They still don’t get it. How much longer can this go on? The Bloomberg pundits keep encouraging the sheeple onward.
If six million people say a stupid thing, it is still a stupid thing.
Aladin, ” Let’s take a look at all the building still going on, across this fair land.From freshly graded flattened out pieces of land, to say 2/3rds done.”
I reported on that 2 weeks ago. I did an Orlando area trip, and even though I knew what to expect, I was truly flaberghasted at the amount of ’starts’ I saw. Ryland, Madison, small builders etc..Huge developments still being built…100’s of homes in subdivisions with the whold area scraped flat ,and all the blue sewer pipe sticking up.., but along every road were forsale signs on every corner. You know the project was many months in the making but how the big builders didn’t see the trend and slow, I’ll never know…
–
OT also, Was it reported on previous threads that the Euro market is now larger than the US? ..another huge bellwether for our economy…
http://tinyurl.com/2y79kd
East — I think that the reason the big builders continue to build, beyond the fact that they exercised the land options, is because they will be able to underprice used-home sellers all the way to zero inventory on these latest developments. The reports that I have seen all have been about decline in profits, not actual losses. Most of the used-home FBs, meanwhile, either will not bail until it is way too late and they are forced out, or have the means to eat their property indefinitely.
Chip: Has that happened in the past? Do new house sales prices lead used house prices down? At the end, when new houses are finally used up, is there an “echo” crash in used house prices?
It happened to a lesser degree in a bust here in the late ’70s or mid ’80s. The first thing small builders did is try to keep their subs loyal by accepting close to zero profit. We didn’t have the big-big builders here then.
Now, the cost of building as house is plummeting. Assume you’re Lennar and you exercised your option on a piece of land. You’re more likely to hide the loss on it by burying it into the sale price of a built house, I’d think, so long as you can sell for cost or more. Meanwhile, costs for most building materials, with the notable exception of copper, are way down or headed there, and labor is following. From a FEb. 5 AP article: “Due mostly to the slowdown in new home construction, lumber prices have sunk from a peak of about $1,000 per 1,000 foot board 18 months ago to around $200 per 1,000 foot board.” That is an 80% drop. Trusses are way, way down, etc, etc.
IMO, part of a smart renting-bear’s considered options, where possible, should be having a house built beginning late in 2007 or in 2008.
“When we start seeing these hardly started to almost done housing developments, stopped dead in their tracks…”
We’ve already seen that, when we visited Sarasota in January. It was a development of about 200 homes, of which about 120 were built and just one partial completion (but no activity). This particular development had, by actual count, one For Sale for every six houses. Half of those signs were in front of completed, unoccupied, builder inventory houses.
And hurricane season is now less than 2 months away.
Bill — my guess is that the smaller (non-national, in particular) developers will revert to what they did in the last bust: they will drop the requirement that they, or their chosen builder, build on a lot and instead will sell remaining lots virtually without restriction (notwithstanding covenants and codes).
http://realestate.yahoo.com/Real_estate_news/story;_ylt=AvXpi0mrIY5S2uO__.IoSd.kF7kF?s=rytimes/item-e590a994031ff1d5461cd55f7832dae1.html
Look who is concerned…..why BS propaganda!!!!!!!!
http://realestate.yahoo.com/Real_estate_news/story;_ylt=AvXpi0mrIY5S2uO__.IoSd.kF7kF?s=rytimes/item-e590a994031ff1d5461cd55f7832dae1.html
Look who is concerned…..what BS propaganda!!!!!!!!
http://realestate.yahoo.com/Real_estate_news/story;_ylt=AvXpi0mrIY5S2uO__.IoSd.kF7kF?s=rytimes/item-e590a994031ff1d5461cd55f7832dae1.html
Look who is concerned…..what BS propaganda!!!!!!!!
Realtors help?
How low can they get?
What a cesspool of an organization.
This is OT, but I thought, given our general economic outlook on this blog, others might find it interesting. There is a thread on another blog I read about the “female” side of the economy, and how they spend more than “cheap men”.
Here is a link to the blog:
http://www.topix.net/forum/source/south-florida-sun-sentinel/TT9G42QMQ3A5M9JI9#lastPost
Here is my response:
Women and sales? Sorry, Typical Woman, that just made me laugh.
What does a “sale” mean to me? That the item that is on sale is either old, outdated, or was overpriced before. The simple fact that a store like The Gap can put EVERYTHING on sale for 20% off makes me sick. That’s why I hate shopping for items like clothes, shoes, etc. I know I am getting RIPPED off. If you can sell it for 20% off, and then let me open a credit card a get another 20% off, guess what that tells me? That 500 dollar jacket costs you about 50 bucks, and you have so much markup on it that I just want to throw up when I think about it.
Men don’t shop sales for another reason. I buy what I need most of the time. There is no way to shop sales (at least not in the amount of time that I have) for all the stupid stuff that I need every day (consumables/food). So I don’t, and I don’t care about the 1.00 off on my paper towels. Women are different, they see sale, and they buy it. Then I get to hear how much was “saved” when the car comes home filled to the brim with stuff. You don’t SAVE BY SPENDING!
The one exception to this is cars, I was influenced by a car sale. However, it was because the financing offered on the vehicle was far below market rates (2.9) and they would finance the car out over a long period of time at that IR. That’s the kind of sale that I want; the kind that nets me thousands of dollars (in saved interst costs and the ability to invest that money in other asset classes that are paying much more interest).
Men shop in a totally different way. When I go out to shop, I know exactly what I am going to pay for the item, and I know exactly what I want. I will shop it for hours until I am sure that I know what it will cost from several different places, and then I venture out into the world to see if I can keep the business local, or if I should just order it online.
The last impluse purchase I made? Starbucks, because I felt tired on a long drive.:)
If women would stop impluse purchasing and start to PLAN their purchases, expenses and finances, they would be able to do much better in the long run.
Oh, and BTW, stop with the designer crap. First off, almost nobody cares in S. FL if you shoes cost 500 dollars. Second, if you’re not incredibly rich, everyone thinks your 1500 dollar LV handbag is a fake. And third, if your not incredibly rich, and are actually spending 1,500 bucks on a handbag that everyone thinks is fake, guys are going to think your a total moron.
In some areas, you’re 1,500 dollar handbag and 500 dollar shoes might impress someone. S. FL is different (in a good way, imho). Great, you have an expensive handbag. That girl over there has the same bag, is wearing a 15K dress, 500 dollar sunglasses, has a boob job, 1000 dollar shoes, 50K in jewlery on, and is driving a 150K SL65AMG. Did I mention she is 25 years old?
You can’t keep up, and you are never going to impress anyone in Palm Beach with you’re knock off crap (even if it is real, nobody believes it without the rest package).
How about this? Instead of spending all this money, try going to the gym a few times a week, hit the tanning bed, and get your hair done. Get a few cute shirts and jeans. Spend 500 dollars your outfit TOTAL (jeans, shirt, handbag, shoes) and go out and have a good time. You will get FAR more attention that that idiot sitting there with the 1,500 dollar handbag who is 10lbs overweight.
So sad.. Girls/women selling themselves into slavery (debt servitude) to have crap to show off that nobody cares if they have or not.
As a resident Palm Beacher I say BRAVO Mike. There are the uber-rich in our area, but they are truly the minority and The Average Joe’s cannot compete. We have an overabundance of the “$50K per year Millionaires” as I like to call them. It’s really pretty comical. The men can be just as bad as the women. Palm Beach is not LA or NYC.
That’s what I like about it, once you realize you cannot compete with the Duponts/Trumps/etc of the world, you can just stop trying, and buy the stuff that you want/need, as opposed to the stuff people buy to impress others. However, many, many people down here are still under the impression that somebody is impressed by their non-AMG MB SL series, or their stupid LV handbag.
I dated a women down here who had (as a result of a divorce from a GM bigwig) had a private jet and would rent a Lambo and have it driven to us from Miami to go out for the night in. That’s money. Until you’re in that league, nobody down here could care less about your 50K a year millionaire status.
In S. FL a 6 figure salary is nothing, a 7 figure salary MIGHT get you a second glace, and a 8 figure salary is where you start to get invited to some upscale parties.
I am sure the rich just laugh when they see these “50K” millionaires shopping in the Louis Vitton store.
I think there should be a rule for stores like Louis, Rolex, Tiffany, (ultra-luxe). If you can’t afford to buy the entire store, you should not be allowed to shop there. Not just all the inventory, the entire store, land, building, everything. Because, frankly, if you can’t afford to drop 10M dollars on an asset like that (notice I said asset) then you also cannot afford to buy you 5th 1,500 dollar handbag.
“In S. FL a 6 figure salary is nothing…”
And that’s why I like it here. No one is trying to drag you down with them like the area I’m from. Everyone strives for the next higher paycheck.
Mike ..”old buddy”…Could I bother you for that rich divorcee’s TELEPHNE number
Telephone….Sheesh…I’m already excited !
LOL.
One obeservation I will make about women with big money is that they are much more like men then women. They are sexually empowered in a way that I find very attractive (but others find very unattractive). They know they can walk out the door and find something better, and they are looking for the best of everything (including sexual partners).
On to speculation. I would guess that many of these really wealthy women, even if they are still married, have affairs just like men do. I would also hazard a guess and say that it’s much more typical for a wealthy women to date several men at a time, and have more casual sex as well.
Wealth is a very liberating influence.
Again, this is just from my experience, please don’t take it as gospel. Also, it’s not like I am “Mr. Experience” in dating rich women. I dated 2, and I draw those conclusions on that very limited sample size.
I’d guess most of my friends make around $20 to $30k a year and live the fullest lives imaginable…
In fact, we never talk about money.
Because everything we like to do in the outdoors, costs nothing, except effort. (and a little gas money)
Fink, you’re starting to sound like Stradlater.
Gascap:
I actually had to look that one up. It’s pretty rare that I have to break out google for a pop culture reference.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=stradlater
And, to respond, no, that’s not the issue at all. Older women put the same premium on youth that older men do. It had very little to do with me, and much more to do with the fact that these people are used to getting whatever they want, whenever they want it.
Yeah, go to Club Space in Miami, eat a few rolls and you won’t care about being a millionaire!
I’m just your average computer guy. But I work hard and have 2 jobs and no debt. Including school, car, nothing…
But I love my Submariner and a couple of the other nice watches I own. I think the difference between myself and the other numbnuts running around trying the “live the life” is that I actually own the life I live.
Right on, shadash, testify, brothah!
I filched my nephew’s quartz watch, out of his happy meal, when he wasn’t looking and he’s only 2, so he’s no slave to time, yet, so I didn’t feel guilty.
How much better time does that Submariner keep, compared to mine?
Put your nephew’s watch underwater for a couple of days and let me know?
It’s funny…
I seldom need to know the time, underwater.
aladinsane ,
you and your friends definitely get my vote!
Some of us female types in South Fla wouldn’t be caught dead with a $1500 handbag.
A $1500 kayak, well that’s a different story.
And as for the watches, as one who has often needed to tell the time underwater, a $30 timex works better than ANY rolex and you won’t be shot by someone that wants to steal it.
Well say whatever you want but there’s a reason Rolex has been making the same model for yhe last 40 years.
Uhhhh, Michael, then what’s a 5 figure salary?
Mike, my mom’s sister admitted that she couldn’t drive by a shopping mall without going in to buy at least ONE THING…didn’t matter what it was. As long as she bought something.
I think the whole syndrome has to do with unmet sexual needs. (I guess for once I agree with Freud.)
Most women have unmet sexual needs. Most women love to shop. Not sure if there’s causal relationship there — but it’s an interesting theory!!
I predict this thread will go to 200 comments on this post alone.
Doubt it. Every male on this post just did a total freeze on phillygal’s comment. Target as pick-up heaven, Who’d a thunk it?
I heard that IKEA was the pickup heaven, because anyone (especially men) shopping there alone probably just got kicked out of the house and needed to furnish an apartment.
And if, as Michael Fink says, women with so much as an ounce of extra fat have no chance against the anorexic boob-jobbed 25-year-olds, then do you blame them for shopping? I’m pretty sure they are well aware that all the Tiffany in the world won’t make them 25 again, but at least they can feel they tried.
Actually, one of the most worrisome trends of the designer handbag/shoe conspicuous consumption is with the junior high and high school set. When these girls from solidly middle class and lower middle class families started carrying Coach, Dooney Bourke, LVH, etc. I started worrying. Such a stupid waste of money!! Parents were buying these items for the girls in Spokane, WA starting about 5 years ago—and we are usually behind in fashion trends by a few years. At the time I blamed TV shows such as “The OC” and “Sex and the City” but really I think it was cheap credit and HELOC!!!
Your right on both counts.
Sex and the City and The OC created the demand.
HELOC created the opprotunity.
And you should see it in S. FL. It’s like an arms race between the parents with their kids. I am not exaggerating at all when I say that many of the kids that went to the high school where I used to live (in West Palm) were driving 80K+ brand new cars. M5’s, AMG MB, X5’s, etc. It’s like a new way to show off how much money you have, outfit your kids with the ultra-luxe when they are 11 years old.
So sad.
Perhaps the housing bubble/cheap credit debacle will bring a renewed interest in parents teaching their offspring about thrift and decency.
When we sent our daughter off to an ivy league college 4 years ago she was unaware of designer clothes,shoes, and purses and within one month she would call in desperation because she felt so insecure in her wardrobe from Spokane. So…….4 years later she has accepted a job with an Investment Bank to start after graduation and she can buy her own darn clothes. But…..Investment banker is not even a career choice any kids would have heard of in our hometown. This is another topic for some other day or blog. The Big Investment Banks scoop up the best and the brightest from the high powered universities from a range of undergraduate degrees including engineering, biology, econ, philosphy, government. How long has this been happening?
Since the 70s when computers replaced relationships as the primary force in investment banking. Makes me glad I went to an engineering school where dressing up was taking your hat off and combing your hair.
LOL. Bluto, where did you go to school? I went to a school with a 10:1 male:female ratio. Big mistake in hindsight. Mid 70s. Very few of us even had cars.
At least the 80’s. When I graduated from Datmouth in ‘87 it had been THE thing for a while. And there was a great quote from the valedictory address in the year before I matriculated where he said that to do good in the world sometimes he and his classmates would have to say, “No, thank you, Paine Webber.” Not an investment bank, but you can bet there was at least some of it going on for the class that graduated in ‘83. Things probably slowed down a bit for the next class because of the Oct ‘87 market crash, but I’m sure it came back fairly quickly at the ivy schools.
Great book on cultural changes in conspicuous consumption is “The Overspent American” by Juliet Schor. Most recent pub date is 1999, so it is a bit out of date, but her analysis of television replacing neighborhood as how people judge their social status is right on. Basically, you used to compare yourself to your neighbors who had about the same jobs and background so people didn’t feel like they were getting behind. If you compare yourself to TV characters, you lose perspective becasue the show dressers don’t actually take into account the possible incomes of the family/person in question when they decorate the set, buy the clothes, etc. Reality TV (house porn) probably is even worse, because a normal person can’t take $1000 or even $3000 and imitate what happens on a house decorating show - they don’t have the additional $10K to $30K you would have to pay a designer/carpenter/seamstress/staff to do it. Internet again makes it even worse, because you can convince yourself you are getting a good “deal” on things like purses and shoes.
Me? Until I found a store credit and gift certificate to Levenger’s that I had never used when I moved to DC, I don’t think I had bought a purse in 15 years. Once you have a few useful colors in a convinient size, what else do you need?
I think my daughter knows I am not proud of her new career in IB. Interestingly, she will graduate from D Phi Beta Kappa in June and go on to one of the “coveted” jobs on Wall Street. I do, however, talk to her about issues that come up on HBB, The Oil Drum, and blogs that speak to problems in society that are not quite covered as completely in the WSJ and other MSM.
I just can’t keep my mouth shut on this one. I would be very proud to have a daughter who has done well in school and has landed a good job. All investment bankers aren’t evil, anymore than all doctors are good. Maybe she’s interested in finance - what’s wrong with that? Maybe she’s gotten the message that she has to put her kids through Ivy League schools which will only be affordable to investment bankers by then. Maybe you shielded her so much from the world that she didn’t have the opportunity to look critically at things. Wall Street will be a good place for her - sink or swim.
One of my favorite places to shop is the supermarket equivilent of a 99 Cent Store, only the prices of things, tend to be just like your supermarket, from 6 for a Dollar, to perhaps $20.
It’s a fun game of finding decent failed products, (shelf space is muy valuable, hard for the little guy to get placement) or foodstuffs, whose expiration date, might be a little too close, or they made too much soup and the manufacturers went to plan B, this supermarket.
I bought 100 cans of Wolfgang Puck’s Honey Roast Chicken with Penne Soup, with a good til 09′ stamp on them, for 99 Cents a piece.
Last summer I bought I think 5 oz bags of Lindt Swiss milk chocolate truffles(yummy), maybe 15 of them in a bag, for 99 Cents.
I’d like to think that this isn’t the only sort of supermarket, of it’s kind, out there.
The last Wolfgang Puck frozen food item I bought had hair in it, so when I say “last,” I mean LAST. I didn’t check to see if hair was a listed ingredient.
I dig their soup.
Michael Fink - The American Gigolo.
When these girls from solidly middle class and lower middle class families started carrying Coach, Dooney Bourke, LVH, etc. I started worrying.
And these brands began as traditionally classic, elegantly styled artisan crafted handbags. LV was the exception with trademark logo initials, but still handcrafted, expensive and out of reach to the unwashed masses; ergo a bona fide status symbol.
Enter the knock-offs. That made LVs, Coach, etc. a fraction of their store price, and anyone with access to a street vendor could cop one. That’s when the styles started to “branch out”. The real manufacturers didn’t want to lose the “street” market so they started blinging their product. I don’t know if Coach even offers its traditional line anymore. Louis Vuitton, I can’t get excited about. If I did want a status symbol, Prada bags don’t even cut it anymore since soccer mommies where I live are sporting them with their pleated khaki pants and running sneakers. *ouch* (that was a wince from a former fashionista ). Maybe Hermes still has some cachet, who knows?
If HELOC truly was the driving engine behind the mass acquisition of these formerly elite products, then maybe the drying up of that money will cause a return to those brands returning to their original classic styling (and as a corollary, their stock prices tanking.)
In the ’80s, when one of our daughters was accepted to Vanderbilt, we refused to pay for it, even though we liked the school and could have covered the education, room & board. Our reason was, solely, that the students there have so much discretionary money that our daughter could never hope to keep up, fashion-wise, car-wise, any-wise — it would have made her and us miserable.
Phillygal: I have remarked that we’re in a “handbag bubble.” I can’t believe the money that women are willing to drop for a purse! The problem is, when they come to their senses, some other useless item will become the latest rage.
Dear Michael, I hope you realize that you just asked this woman to spend $1450 (gym membership: $400; tanning treatments $200, hair coloring/cut/style $250, $500 outfit you suggested, and $100 to go out and have a good time.) Good lord, every women I know can find the same jeans, shirt, shoes, and handbag for $130 plus tax at a discount clothing store. And you can exercise and tan for free. I do agree with you, however, that we can look good without spending much money.
If you want to look good and attractive then just eat right and work out and lose whatever weight you need to lose. How many boomer ladies and gentlemen in America are at their ideal weight with a little bit of muscle tone to boot? Let’s face it, we are a nation of fat pigs, relying on expensive name brands to cameflouge the fact that we are too lazy to make exercise a priority (we would rather spend our time getting our designer cues from stupid TV shows like SITC) and addicted to both pharmaceuticals and rancid grease. I see lots of middle aged men and women drapped in fancy clothes and maneuvering in fancy cars, but it never looks good to me. A fat pig is a fat pig.
In my book, the “elegant look” has to start out with a well proportioned and toned body. (I am not there yet, but I am getting there.)
Got 10% down?
We just washed our windows, and I was sweating afterward. Probably burned as many calories as the morning exercise, it didn’t cost a thing, and we didn’t have to pay someone to do it for us. Plus it looks beautiful - I love spring cleaning.
One interesting thing that has gone away and really, who would be surprised?
We aren’t exactly a nation of savers, anymore.
The housewife with Cents off coupons.
Where’d she go?
You haven’t been in the grocery store line behind my wife. She clips every coupon from the paper that she can.
Roidy
http://www.prosper.com
help out a few debt slaves and get paid for it.
Yes, now you too can be a usurer!
That site make me sick.
The beggars with their sob stories of “spending too much on vacations, shoes, etc.” “Friends” writing in to vouch for the beggars. And those who are hoping to get rich quick by agreeing to a 27% interest rate.
Is this what we’ve turned into as a society?
I’m confused as to how, exactly, this works. Say 25 people fund my debt. Do I then have 25 monthly payments to make? Or is it somehow rolled up into one monthly payment that gets distributed among my “saviors”
?
That was my question when I looked awhile ago.
No, it doesn’t work like that. Prosper.com lends the money to the borrower and collects the monthly payment. Assuming the borrower makes the payment, Prosper.com takes its cut and disburses the payment to each of the 20, 30 or however many lenders there are. So, for example, if a person borrows $5000 at 19% for three years, and there are 100 lenders who lent $50 each, then each person would receive $1.83 per month for 36 months, or a total of $65.88 on their investment of $50.
http://www.prosper.com
help out a few debt slaves and get paid for it.
_________________________________________________________
Well, that’s a little more than the price of a cup of coffee. Do I still get monthly photo updates of the child I’m sponsoring?
You’d probably never see that money again. In this case, the old adage “The return on your money is less important than the return OF your money” definitely applies.
I looked into Prosper and other micro-lending options. The average rate of return for the most active lenders after defaults was below 6.0%. I can do that with a savings account and without wasting my time trying to find the right borrower.
I especially like the people who wish to “start a business” loaning on Prosper by borrowing from others on Prosper. Talk about a lack of diversification for a minimal rate of return. If you’re lucky, you might net a spread of 1.0% a year? For the $2,000 - $10,000 these people are looking at borrowing for start up, they might as well be selling dirty underwear on Ebay to make the $20 - $100 a year they’d generate on Prosper.
Again, just another example that most people never pay attention in math class.
ITulip started a lending group which never got off the ground. We never made any loans and that is why.
Get a laugh of this one. Alarms are going off. Anyone listening?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/economy—-eyes-cpa/story.aspx?guid=%7B495EC07D%2D99DC%2D489E%2DA20E%2D559DEAEE6565%7D
The comments from CPAs on Herb’s blog are also interesting:
http://tinyurl.com/2uljwc
There are a few things that are not being mentioned in that quote from Gary (GN) the Palm Beach property appraiser.
First off, for anyone who bought 1-2 years ago, their values are indeed not dropping below the tax basis. Because they (most likely) have a SOH exemption, their tax basis only rises 3% a year. So you bought 2 years ago for 200K, value 6 months ago was 300K, value today is 250K. Your taxes are still going up, because your only paying tax on 212K (I know, I did not compound the interest, do your worst!). So, for anyone with a SOH exemption who did not buy last year, very likely they are still below market rate on their tax base anyway; so yes, taxes are going to go up.
The other thing is the finger pointing. Gary probably needs security (I am not kidding, the venom towards him is beyond reason) to go home from work, or out in anywhere in the county. However, his job is SO easy, and so unambigious. PUT A VALUE ON A PROPERTY. That’s it. He has nothing to do with the tax bill, other then controlling the ONE number on that bill that is not supposed to be subject to interpretation.
Now, the thing that really burns me up is the finger pointing. All the taxing authorities say “Well, your value doubled, your taxes have to double”.
NO!
NO!
NO!!!!
That’s not the way it works your overly tanned, crooked politician idiots. You morons set the MILL rate, which is how much of every dollar of value is going to be paid in taxes. If everyone’s value double tommorow, would taxes double? Of course not (well, in S. FL, I do begin to wonder..). The mill rate will be halved, and the taxes will remain equivelent.
The ONLY reason that the outcry against the mill rate has never been deafining is because of SOH. Because those people who were locked into their tax basis were so short-sighted that they never thought to ask why their neighbors tax bill was 10X what theirs was. Without SOH, this NEVER could have/would have happened.
Very, very quick story.
My family owns a home in the Adirondacks, NY. Property values really went nuts there about 10 years ago, and my father gets a notice that he is going to be reappraised. His last apprasial was ~10 years before that, and the appraised value (for 2 lakefront lots) was about 50K.
So, appraiser comes; father gets tax bill sometime over the winter. He is not excited about opening said bill. I hear him laughing after opening it, and go to comfort him (as I am certain he just blew a fuse). He was laughing because the bill was LOWER. His taxable value jumped 10-15X, but the bill was lower because they ADJUSTED THE MILL RATE. In other words, in relation to the other homes in the area, my father’s home was no longer as nice (anyone who knows that area, it’s become very gentrified), and therefore the tax burden, even though the home was worth many times the old appriased value, went down!
SOH is evil, that’s really the only way to describe this law. And it is going to push FL further down then maybe any other market because of the unfairness of the system.
BTW, I apologize for my level of hatred today. After reading my two posts, I think I sound like a very, very angry man. I am not at all; just got 2 nerves touched off at one time today (overspending by women, and stupid property tax system in FL). I will try to keep the rest of my comment for the day glib and happy.
Boy, you are on a roll today!!!! Keep it up, I like it. It’s good to know I’m not the only crazy person out here.
No need to apologize. I’m a woman and I have utter contempt for most of my sisters. In this day and age, with all that has been done to create equality for women, they’re still whoring themselves so they don’t have to work for a living. And as far as men go, it’s hard to find a real man any more. I could go on for an hour about this myself but I’ll spare everyone the vitriol.
And as far as men go, it’s hard to find a real man any more.
Sadly, I know this all too well.
I’ll bet you do, especially there on the east coast.
E’coaster, you don’t find the real men, the real men find you…;-)
I’ll bet you do, especially there on the east coast.
Then I’m just lucky, I guess.
I like my life, I like my man, and I like where I live.
Go figure.
What are the top five characteristics of a so-called “real man”???!!!
Stands his ground, takes no BS from women
Is not afraid of being politically incorrect
Takes care of his body
Takes care of his financial business
Can open the hood of his car and knows what he’s looking at
DOES NOT GET MANICURES, PEDICURES OR BODY WAXING
*eyeroll*
Boy, I feel like Phil in ‘Groundhog Day’. Close, real close. But a question - if the lace panties don’t show, does it count?
Thanks for the reply. That’s a reasonable list.
Bill
Ok, so I’m maybe 80% of a real man.
Let’s flip this question around. It should be good for a laugh or two; Gentlemen, what are the top five characteristics of a “real woman”?
The good women are not all that visible but they’re out there. My wife and sister both qualify and they have plenty of friends too. I think your opinion of women may be heavily influenced by where you find them. Or, maybe I’m just lucky.
Testify, sister Chick, testify!
Txchick57
Yup…society has tried to kill the real men off.
ha ha ha …You got my brother…but you DIDN”T get me
Damn brutha I don’t believe I’d have told that. Testify!
“His taxable value jumped 10-15X, but the bill was lower because they ADJUSTED THE MILL RATE. In other words, in relation to the other homes in the area, my father’s home was no longer as nice (anyone who knows that area, it’s become very gentrified), and therefore the tax burden, even though the home was worth many times the old appriased value, went down!”
Imagine that, a municipal government that understands financial logic. A rare breed.
That is just the 1st step - increasing the assessed value and lowering the rate. Since his parents did not challenge the assessed rate, next time the locals can raise the mil rate and not worry about complaints the assessment is to high. I hope in this case it is good local financial management, but I have my doubts.
Essentially unchallenged reassessments allow local government to subsequently raise taxes. Unless this community is significantly different from the rest of the US, their pension plans are underfunded for Police, Fire, municipal workers and all teachers. This shortfall will be paid by re taxes.
Marco Rubio (Florida Speaker of the House) made an excellent presentation the other night our local PBS station about replacing the property tax in Florida with an increase in sales tax. Excellent. The only people who didn’t like the idea were government workers, all the other folks in the audience were very positive about it. Which is unusual, the local PBS outfit tends to have a neoliberal slant that adores things such as income tax and property tax.
Anyway, Rubio really blew all those standard yada-yada objections to the sales tax out of the water. For example, the moderator asked about businesses close to the state line being penalized, to which Rubio replied that major shopping centers in other states bordering Florida were about 150 miles away, so who is going to drive 150 miles for a few bucks? Convenience stores might be a different matter, though. The best one, however, was the question about people buying off the Internet. Rubio pointed out that Floridians who purchase stuff out of state on the Internet are supposed to pay Florida sales tax anyway, a fact about which many Floridians are ignorant. But it is true, if you live in Florida and make a purchase on the internet from an out of state company, you have to figure out and submit the sales tax to Florida. It’s an honor system, but you do have to do it.
Anyway, if property tax can be eliminated in favor of a sales tax increase, I’m all for it, and I’m currently a renter and middle income.
Barf!
If you do that it hits low income spenders more than high income homes.
The resources that would be allocated locally by community choice get thrown to inner city districts. I’m guessing that Rubio is a city guy that would LOVE to pimp the burbs for more money. You have additional levels of money handling so efficiency goes down and pork barrel spending goes up. Once the taxes get raised its hell lowering them again if the property taxes are not actually gone.
This also deflates holding cost on properties and supports ownership. Extra tough on the poorer people who will be further locked out and rents might rise.
So that is a tripple whammy of a horrid idea.
Palmetto, Floridians don’t have pay sales tax on out-of-state on-line purchases. Most states have a tax on in-state purchases, but none can tax out-of-state purchases. If I physically buy a car in Georgia, I don’t have to pay sales tax to Florida. In fact, while Hillsborough County and Tampa both require business licenses and other crap for internet businesses run out of the county and city, they can’t actually enforce such requirements, since most Web sites are hosted on servers far away. I paid all their stupid fees for several years for an internet business before realizing they had no authority to do anything. My Web site was originally hosted in California, then Texas, then Arizona, then California again–and the hosting companies had no control over sales or payments.
Little people with delusions of power always trying to meddle and interfere, but in the end, they’re just a bunch of goofs.
“If I physically buy a car in Georgia, I don’t have to pay sales tax to Florida.”
Not!!
“Florida law imposes a 6% use tax on out-of-state purchases if sales tax was not paid at the time of purchase. The use tax normally applies to items purchased outside Florida, including another country, which are brought or delivered into this state and would have been taxed if purchased in Florida.”
Florida Dept of Revenue
http://tinyurl.com/3yr5qm
And how would they enforce this or even know?
Typical scofflaw, The state of Florida (like almost all states and the federal government pays informers - ignorance of the law is no excuse. :>)
That is the meaning of democracy, if you choose to ignore the laws that were enacted by your representatives then you do so at your own peril.
The pay is pretty decent. So expect to see former friends who are upside down/underwater start finking out neighbors.
Why do you think the US has the largest number of prison inmates/population in the world? Do you really believe that we are 3X more likely to commit crimes than someone in France? Or that Florida commits 2x as many crimes as Wisconsin?
Hoz — all that means is that you have to prove you paid sales tax to some other state, else you have to pay it to Florida. I ran into that once, when I imported a car. Had I bought it in Georgia, I’d have had to pay no tax to Florida.
There used to be, for a while, an “impact fee” type of tax in Florida, whereas you had to pay an imputed tax if you were not transferring a title (plate). But that is long since gone.
Chip, I am aware of that, but tax is required for items “purchased outside Florida, including another country, which are brought or delivered into this state and would have been taxed if purchased in Florida.” This means internet purchases,if delivered to Florida, may be subject to Florida taxes if taxes were not paid at the time of purchase.
The law also covers used cars bought out of state from private parties . This is your standard blanket law sales tax.
To not pay the tax on these items is to flaunt the law. The states will do whatever it takes to get their moneys that they feel are due.
Hoz — agreed.
Well, those major shopping centers may be 150 miles away NOW, but . . .
Mike,
If there were no capital improvements to the home, the total tax bill should be proportional to the value of the home. As the home price inflated the purchase power of the dollar decreased, so the tax bill must increase in order to pay for the same municipal services.
So 2x home price with zero capital improvements is reflected correctly in 2x tax bill.
Welcome to REIC(h) driven inflation.
And on the downside, if the home decreases by 2x, should the tax bill? Nope, because the 2x money supply generated by the orgy of REIC(h) is still out there.
The great American home ownership nightmare.
“Jennifer Beheler has lived in her house ever since she had her first child, But between the cost of insurance, property taxes and the mortgage it’s a struggle, ‘Our payments have almost doubled in fact they have doubled since we moved in.’ She may lose her home.”
I have to say that this is the type of person I feel sympathy for (PROVIDED there was no equity tapping). If her oldest is 6, she has lived there since at least 2001 (not crazy bubble price days). If her payment has doubled SOLELY based on rising taxes/insurance, then that really sux. (Same goes for senior citizens on fixed incomes who haven’t refi’d or anything but are struggling due to rising taxes/insurance.) But the flip side is - would these homeowners be happy if prices dropped back to early 2000 prices so long as their other payments adjusted accordingly? Or would they be mad that their now-overpriced abode is no longer a jackpot?
There is no record of her having a mortgage in the Hillsborough Count Clerk records (http://publicrecord.hillsclerk.com/), but I am guessing that she had a 5/1 ARM that has reset. SOH would keep her taxes in check, and property insurance hasn’t increased THAT much in Tampa. It has gone up (maybe from $1000 to $2500, unless she is waterfront, or in a low spot), but not enough to double her total monthly mortgage payment.
There is no record of her having a mortgage in the Hillsborough Count Clerk records (http://publicrecord.hillsclerk.com/), but I am guessing that she had a 5/1 ARM that has reset. SOH would keep her taxes in check, and property insurance hasn’t increased THAT much in Tampa. It has gone up (maybe from $1000 to $2500, unless she is waterfront, or in a low spot), but not enough to double her total monthly mortgage payment.
Wrong county. Try http://www.pcpao.org/
House was built in 1956. 972 square feet, average quality.
Last sale was in August of 2000 for $66.7k
“Market value” in 2006 is $113.6k
Save-Our-Homes taxable value is $34.5k
2006 taxes are $744 per year.
w/o SOH and Homestead Exemption, taxes would be $2,447/yr.
Evacuation Zone is E, which means they’re a relatively low-risk area. They’d still have to leave for a major storm, but they’d be the last area to do so. http://www.pinellascounty.org/emergency/HVA-7.HTM
Rick
Those numbers just don’t seem like “lose your home” numbers to me. What am I missing?
Ah thanks, there it is. I see the house is actually in Pinellas, in Largo. Looking at the Pinellas Clerk of Court records shows the following:
Aug 2000 - $66,181 Note for 30 years fixed
Jan 2005 - $71,197 Refi 2 Year/6 Month ARM with 9.5% initial rate (Ameriquest, of course)
Jan 2006 - $94,250 Refi into 30 years fixed
No wonder their payment went up, they took out an addition 50% in loan value on top of any insurance and tax increases, and wasted thousands in fees each time they refied.
I do love Florida’s public records laws though. Once you know the address, you can look at sales info and owners name through the property appraisers site for each county, and then go to the clerk of court for that county and search on the owners name and see the pdf of every contract and legal document associated.
You can’t put anything past the people on this blog. I love it. The first refinance makes no sense to me. Could 9.5% have been an improvement in her loan?
Ben’s blog, collectively, has the best detectives I’ve run into on the Net. Reminds me that I wish Paladin would post an update.
“Right now, ‘We’re at beginning of 2003 levels, but in 2003 it picked up toward the end of the year,’ said Mary Gibbs, head of community development.”
Gee gosh, wasn’t “the end of 2003″ exactly when the sub-prime/Alt-A/exotic mortgage party began? Co-inky-dink? I think not. So, Ms. Gibbs, how are you going to spike the punch bowl this time around?
“Promoters of real estate development needed a source of funds to finance mortgages which they found in the chartering of new and independent banks. During the real estate boom land values had soared and mortgages became valued securities in the portfolio of earning assets. Banks also had issued real estate mortgage bonds and sold them with an understanding they would repurchase them if the sellers became dissatisfied, a provision the banks would later regret.”
A tale of where we’ve been before…
From the book “The banking panics of the Great Depression”
http://www.amazon.com/Banking-Panics-Great-Depression/dp/0521663466
Some things Dont Change
OT, from WSJ:
“Carlyle Group Plans to Launch Its First Hedge Fund”
“Private-equity titan Carlyle Group plans to launch a $1 billion multistrategy hedge fund next month, people familiar with the matter said, in what will be the company’s first foray into hedge funds.
“The move into hedge funds — lightly regulated investments targeted at institutional investors and the wealthy — highlights a broader trend of private-equity firms diversifying their businesses.
“Carlyle’s first offering from its Carlyle-Blue Wave hedge-fund unit, called Carlyle Multi-Strategy, will use a range of strategies.
“One of the people familiar with the matter said the fund started trading about two weeks ago with internal money. A London arm of New York-based Carlyle-Blue Wave Partners Management LP was incorporated three weeks ago, according to U.K. filings. A Carlyle Group spokeswoman declined to comment.
“Carlyle Group makes the bulk of its fees and investment gains from its massive private-equity business, which includes stakes in car- rental firm Hertz and coffee and snacks company Dunkin’ Brands.
“The firm also is taking steps to increase the assets of its leveraged-finance business. According to people familiar with the matter, it is looking to list a $1 billion fund on Euronext Amsterdam investing in bank loans, mortgage portfolios and other fixed-income securities. It already runs about $5.5 billion in collateralized debt obligation funds, and also manages distressed debt and mezzanine funds.”
Not to Bush-bash, but I guess if 41 gets into trouble, 43 can orchestrate some kind of hedge fund bail-out…
Agent Provocateur
a-gent pro-vo-ca-teur:
The meaning?
“A person employed to associate with suspected individuals or groups with the purpose of inciting them to commit acts that will make them liable to punishment”
Hello, Fellow Employees~
OT, from the WSJ, can this be the most hollow-headed economic analysis ever? Who do they think is buying our mortgage debt??:
“CAPITAL: Why U.S. Economic Ills Aren’t as Contagious as Thought” (p. A6)
“Financial markets also are more tightly linked than ever, as recent volatility in global stock markets demonstrates. One gloomy fact: Correlations among markets are stronger during bear markets and recessions. “This may help explain why global contractions tend to be more highly synchronized across countries than global expansions,” IMF economist Peter Berezin writes.
“Recent research suggests the U.S. plays a key role in propagating financial shocks. One study pins about 26% of the variation in prices of European financial assets of all sorts (and a whopping 50% for stocks) on the U.S. Only 8% of the variation in U.S. asset prices can be traced to Europe.
“All this sounds ominous at a time when the U.S. economy has just ended its fourth consecutive quarter with growth below 3%, and forecasters aren’t anticipating much of a rebound in the current quarter.
“But the IMF economists, led by Thomas Helbling, find an unexpected silver lining: The current weakness of the U.S. economy stems largely from housing woes — and housing is less global than, say, computers and other parts of the U.S. economy. That is good news for the rest of the world.
“If the current U.S. slowdown were driven by a sinking stock market or by widespread dissipation of confidence, the impact on the rest of the world would be bigger. “The fact that the import content in the housing sector is relatively small has helped to mitigate the spillover effects on other countries,” they say.”
“But the IMF economists, led by Thomas Helbling, find an unexpected silver lining: The current weakness of the U.S. economy stems largely from housing woes — and housing is less global than, say, computers and other parts of the U.S. economy. That is good news for the rest of the world.”
What about US consumer spending, does that affect the rest of the world, say China ? *laughs.
I like how 1 month after the sub primes start melting down, every economist loudly proclaims “its contained”. Just like they proclaimed “there is no bubble” a year ago. No bubble, no bubble, no bubble was all you heard. What do we clearly have now ? A bubble !
So if these guys couldn’t see the writing on the wall then, what makes them credible now ?
Amusing to see “computers and other parts of the U.S. economy” in the same sentence. Anybody bought a computer made in the US in the last 3 years? Or are they talking about American consumers buying computers?
Ahh, yes, Casselberry, FL. That’s where this lady
http://www.nymoves2orlando.com/
bought a house for $158k, dumped $93k into it over 5 months, used her hubby and daddy to do all the work, tried to sell the home for $360k (despite realtors saying it was only worth $275k) and then because she couldn’t sell it, sold it to the bank (refinanced) for $350k, and rented it out. She even “put $40,000 cash in her pocket” when she refinanced, according to her own website.
And she did this all on TV, on an episode of Property Ladder.
And amazingly, after all this, her tax assessment (non owner-occupied, no exemptions) is somehow only $135k.
I want to live in a Casselberry like that. Where I get to cheat on my taxes, have a national TV show, and still get away with it. AMERICA I LOVE YOU!
In debt we trust
http://www.alternet.org/blogs/video/
“Liz Randall says she is eager to buy a Lake Mary home that’s on the market for $419,000. But she doesn’t plan to make a move until another deal is reached at Florida’s Capitol.”
Ahhh, no sh*t, Sherlock. I expected this to happen from the moment the Save Our Homes issue hit the political radar last year.
Even if you could get the seller to take the appropriate haircut, you’d be NUTS to buy a house in Florida until you could see how the property tax issue was going to shake out in Tallahassee and build that into your PITI calculations.
The longer the politicians dink around with the tax issue, the longer buyers will be sitting in neutral.
“The longer the politicians dink around with the tax issue, the longer buyers will be sitting in neutral.”
Exactomundo, Riley! And no one can dink around better with tax and insurance issues like the folks in Tallahassee. I think there are probably other people who are waiting to see how the tax issue goes before buying in Florida. I wonder if buyers and realtors realize that? Maybe they will now. The politicians have probably frozen the market just by saying they are going to “do something about it”. So people wait to see.
Personally, I wouldn’t hold my breath. Look what they did for insurance! LMAO! Rates are still going up, up, up and policies are still being dropped and NOW, Florida taxpayers are on the hook for reinsurance. I shake with laughter every time I think about it.
OT you’ve got to ride the housing price roller coaster.
http://www.curbed.com/archives/2007/04/05/real_estate_roller_coaster_1890present.php
Love it (made me want to go to Cedar Point). Seems only one way to go from here…
“Stands his ground, takes no BS from women
Is not afraid of being politically incorrect
Takes care of his body
Takes care of his financial business
Can open the hood of his car and knows what he’s looking at
DOES NOT GET MANICURES, PEDICURES OR BODY WAXING”
Amen—-but I live in the Bay area CA, where these traits are generally taken over by the women and the men are reduced to complacent idiots who slave to pay for their wive’s salon days. Actually, in the Bay Area, there’s a lot of women who don’t get body waxing that probably should—or at least shave their legs or bleach the girlstache.
“there’s a lot of women who don’t get body waxing that probably should—or at least shave their legs or bleach the girlstache.”
Tell me about it. Bay Area FLA has the same problem.
Well given that both Orlando and San Diego are pretty much f*cked…which would be a better move:
Orlando -> San Diego
or
San Diego -> Orlando
On one hand I expect that Orlando prices will drop faster than SD.
But the mouse the doesn’t pay all that well (which is why they’ll drop faster in OTown)….
And the weather stinks (especially in the Summer)….
Both are chock full of immigrants…
Hurricanes are an issue in Orlando….
But the beaches are nicer if Florida (yeah, no beaches in Orlando, but there aren’t any in El Cajon either)
Is there a third option?
Anyone else on this Blog from Central Florida or Marion County? This has got to be one of the most ” I don’t live in Reality Places I have ever seen.”
I’ve been Predicting a Blow up since June 2005 since I moved here, and now that my predictions are coming true, everyone is in more Denial than ever.
I’ve watched some Property Drop 75% in asking Prices, ( still 350% over 2002 ) , Houses listing at 20% Plus under appraisals , New homes Selling 20 or 25% under last Years Prices ,Plus cash back for same House, Foreclosures through the Roof, Owner Financing everywhere, and even the Rentals and Lease Options are Slashing Prices , Begging People to get in a House , Empty Rentals Everywhere, some Houses built in 04 and 05 still empty and still……………..,
I just talked to a Buyers Agent today and ” He told Me ……..PROPERTY HERE IS STILL APPRECIATING A LITTLE AND IS GOING TO START GOING UP FASTER AGAIN ………..”BECAUSE EVERYONE STILL WANTS TO LIVE HERE !” According to the County they only sold 22 houses last month compared to 671 last Year?
Impact fees and Taxes are still going up every month.
I’ve never seen anything like it. If I say one thing Negative about the RE situation I feel like I’m about ready to get Tarred, Feathered and Ran out of Town. The Newspapers Run Articles like it’s Summer 05 or they run nothing. This is ” SPIN CITY” Deluxe.
Oh Yea , the Median family income Here dropped 5% this Year, Probably because about 80% of the Population is in RE, or “INVESTORS” .
Blows my Mind.
State of Denial? Try Southeast Florida, esp. Broward County!
The latest builder scam in Florida. Here is goes this way. An associate of mine actually went to a builder to hear this BS. They told him that they would kick back 10% of the purchase price to the broker who would then give the money to my associate.
The associate then asked why they were doing this rather than reduce the price of the house. He was told it was because they wanted to keep the sales prices up for valuation purposes. He then revealed he is an appraiser. They stammered and closed the discussion.
He then informed them that what they were proposing was unethical if not illegal and called me to ask what he should do. I tld him not to deal with anyone so unscupulous and I would investigate our due dilligence in such cases.
Now here is the rub. I am not sure this is illegal but I know it is wrong and at the least is skewing the market in favor of the builder. The damnedest thing is we can’t trust the data for appraisals any longer.
I don’t know who to call or contact about this but I am definitely going to drop a dime on them. Any suggestions out there?
Sorry for the typos but it is early and I’m mad.
How about the Feds…
Below are some assorted places around the country. Durham, NC is the reference case
as “no bubble”. Below are various bubble scenarios.
Durham, NC
Population: 201,310
Median family income $56,579
Median home price $159,500 ratio: 2.82
Miami, FL
Population: 378,914
Median family income $30,058
Median home price $387,800 ratio: 12.90
Phoenix, AZ
Population: 1,441,718
Median family income $52,058
Median home price $205,000 ratio: 3.94
San Jose, CA
Population: 889,309
Median family income $84,857
Median home price $610,000 ratio: 7.19
Anaheim, CA
Population: 345,757
Median family income $56,875
Median home price $540,000 ratio: 9.49
Las Vegas, NV
Population: 560,775
Median family income $59,195
Median home price $260,000 ratio: 4.39
Looks to me like Miami is in particularly bad shape. Especially the socio-economic challenged neighborhoods where a 3/1, 1200 sqft shack goes for around $250K are in for some blood letting. Looks like the real estate pyramid scheme finally ran out of fools with
(borrowed) money. Now a bunch of fools are upside down with interest rates resetting. A hard lesson learned in greed and free market trade.