On The Edge Of Decline In Texas
WFAA reports from Texas. “On the southwest edge of Cedar Hill, the development’s custom homes on oversized lots make a clear statement of prosperity. But unexplained house fires, foreclosure postings and empty houses send another message: This is a beautiful place teetering on the edge of decline, an apparent victim of lax lending practices and subprime loans.”
“The three story brick-and-stone house at 419 Golden Pond caught fire on December 3. Cedar Hill Fire Marshal Randall Jordan said it was intentionally set. Now the charred ribs of what used to be a peaked roof stick into the sky. It was the most expensive house on the block, listed on tax rolls at $640,000.”
“On Mallard Point, about a mile away, a bare foundation is what’s left of another home that burned. It was still under construction. ‘We’re very worried,’ Elaine Thieroff said of her neighborhood. ‘We invested in our dream house out here and it’s such a beautiful area that we don’t want our property values to go down.’”
“But that’s what’s happening. The house across the street from the Thieroff’s blackened neighbor is vacant. It is listed on tax rolls at $580,000. But this house has been foreclosed upon by a subprime lender. It’s now on the market for $150,000 less than the tax valuation.”
“Off the crest of the ridge, about a mile-and-a-half away, is a street called High Valley. Of nineteen houses, four are foreclosures. Half appear to be empty.”
“In all, 26 properties in Lake Ridge were posted for foreclosure in March. Steven Nichols has seen all of this before in his 20 years as a real estate appraiser, but he had not seen so much in one place.”
“‘This is phenomenal,’ he said while driving around the property. ‘About every other house appears to be vacant.’”
“Most alarming to Nichols are a number of houses under construction in Lake Ridge which appear to have been abandoned by builders. ‘You’re in a neighborhood of decline,’ Nichols said. ‘It’s not a very optimistic outlook for a neighborhood when you see several homes like this dead in the water.’”
The Dallas News. “Dallas-Fort Worth’s apartment leasing continued to lag in the early months of 2007. Only 480 net leases were recorded in the area during the first quarter, a fraction of the more than 5,600 units leased in the same quarter of 2006.”
“With home sales slowing, analyst Greg Willett said, the weak apartment demand must be due in part to economic conditions.”
“With the slowdown in leasing, apartment construction far outpaces demand. Builders completed more than 1,300 units in the first quarter. About 10,600 units remained under construction at the end of March.”
“About 6,300 apartment were taken out of the market during the year ending in March due to demolition or conversion into condominiums.”
The American Statesman. “The subprime mortgage shakeout is being felt in Austin, as builders cut new home starts by nearly 28 percent in the first quarter compared with a year ago, according to a report from Residential Strategies Inc.”
“As lenders tighten credit requirements, some buyers will not be able to get mortgages, said Mark Sprague, head of Residential Strategies’ Austin office.”
“‘The large-production builders are battling inventory issues elsewhere in the country, and are thus conservative right now,’ Sprague said. ‘Moreover, with the rules being changed today regarding mortgage qualifications, builders are being careful until they can determine the extent of the fallout.’”
“Builders started work on only 3,327 houses, down from 4,613 a year ago, which was a record. On an annual basis, they started 15,468 homes in the 12 months that ended in March, down 4.3 percent from the year-earlier period.”
The Caller Times. “For many it was the answer to achieving the American dream. A mortgage loan, even at high interest because of a low credit score, equaled owning a home. The so-called subprime loan - a no-money-down, adjustable-rate mortgage, was the only alternative for many in Corpus Christi and nationwide.”
“Those adjustable rates adjusted upward, faster than a significant percentage of borrowers could afford. Steven Perez, a mortgage banking lender for Wachovia in Corpus Christi, said the situation in the subprime market has caught the attention of the nation because changes started happening, literally, overnight.”
“About three weeks ago, lenders started losing faith in subprime loans and started to regulate themselves be-fore the government could step in.”
“‘Most of these loans came with no money down and adjustable interest rates that helped these people get the house of their dreams,’ Perez said. ‘The bad side is that due to their credit history, they didn’t have the discipline to keep up with their payments. And then came the foreclosures.’”
“‘The truth is some of us had been waiting for this to happen because once these loan payments jumped and the people with bad credit histories couldn’t make the payment, we knew the foreclosures would eventually happen,’ Perez said, ‘but never at this magnitude.’”
“Molly Trice, associate district manager for GMAC Mortgage in Corpus Christi, attributes the subprime loan problems to lenient guidelines for borrowers.”
“‘A lot of people maybe had bad credit and didn’t have the money for a down payment on a home and were tired of paying rent,’ Trice said. ‘These loans allowed for them to qualify.’”
“‘The lenders have started to place tougher restrictions on themselves, but I think Congress will eventually step in,’ Trice said.”
“Trice and Perez predict that this may hurt Corpus Christi’s healthy housing market. Top officials with the Corpus Christi Association of Realtors said they did not want to comment on the issue.”
‘The subprime mortgage shakeout is being felt in Austin, as builders cut new home starts by nearly 28 percent in the first quarter compared with a year ago. On an annual basis, they started 15,468 homes in the 12 months that ended in March, down 4.3 percent from the year-earlier period.’
Sounds like they just slammed on the brakes in Austin.
I have noticed a lot of developers are offering incentives as well. They have taken down the “zero down / zero move in” posters and replaced them with “$10K in upgrades - act today” signs.
Well I have not seen a slow down in South Austin (250+) communities. DR Horton in Circle C went into December with 12 spec homes and was expecting to sell them during Spring. All except one was got sold between December 1st and Jan 31st leaving no spec homes to sell during Spring. So they are building specs like crazy….
From what I see 250+ range (but below 450) is still moving in South Austin.
I think slow down is coming but it has yet to hit the middle to upper middle class communities here.
What might kill Circle C is that the LCRA brought several new water pipes into Hays county. So, just south of Circle C, a lot of new subdivisions are planned.
However, last summer -Circle C was really hot. I had a friend whom sold his house in only 5 days and got an increased offer. The lady that bought it was an investor from Arizona.
I did see the pipes go in. As you know there is already Meridien, and Circle C south is also supposed to go in. I figured only time before more houses prop up down 1826. Personally I wish things would cool in Texas quickly. I have seen investor money moving in slowly. I prefer things hitting the breaks before it gets ugly like California and others. I do own a house here, I bought it resently. Did not buy as an investment, we love our house, don’t mind housing cooling. Some what prefer it before the surrounding gets distroyed by speculative building.
I know every one says Austin is more expensive than Houston, Dallas. When I look in Houston, the prices for subdivisions within 15 minutes from downtown, and are as nice as Circle C aint any cheaper. I think things in Austin are distorted by Barton Creek kind of prices. I think there is way too much investor and speculative money in Barton Creek, Beecave etc.
I live in Ovilla which is right next to Cedar Hill. No fires in my ‘hood yet but the foreclosures and abandonments are stacking up. I’ve seen a lot of car reposessions too, usually the leased Mercedes goes first, then the house.
Oh, I didn’t see that about Cedar Hill. I lived there for 6 years and love it there. It really is the best part of Dallas. Lake Ridge was beautiful before these McMansion assholes tore it up and shaved the hillsides of the trees. They are building and have built hundreds of houses 400K and up. There is no way that area supports that kind of pricing. I believe the median income is 35K.
Did I say I loved it there? I do, it’s a great place.
Imagine the tax bill on a 400k house in Cedar Hill! Isn’t the tax rate around 4%? If so, that’s a chunk of change.
I got some beautiful wooded lots there in the aftermath of the Superconducting Supercollider boondoggle (remember that? for ~5K each). That area has been used and abused by developers. It makes me sick. And yes, the taxes are very high, so are the water bills. There is also sort of a stigma too to living out there for the white flight crowd who heads north to Plano, Frisco et al so their kids can shoot heroin instead of hoops.
I remember flying into Houston in the late 80’s if memory serves. On the approach, the plane flew over a community that changed from finished, occupied houses, to partially completed houses (no contractor trucks evident) to just roads and cleared lots to just cleared but unpaved roads. I wonder how long it took for that community to be built out.
We’ll be seeing developments like that in lots of places this time.
Someone from Texas, correct me if im wrong:
Texas has no state property tax. Local governments and special taxing districts levy taxes on real and tangible personal property. All property is appraised at full market value and taxes are assessed by local county assessors on 100% of appraised value.
So, lets say I have a house that has an asessed value of 400k and the tax rate for my area is set at 3%. My taxes due would then be 12k for that year. WOW!!
Yes but no state income tax in tx.
In CA state income tax =9.4% but property tax is 1.2% (but locked in forever at purchase price rate +2% max year increase, however pre-77 purchase stay at original rate 4ever) My parents pay $400 a year in prop tax in CA on 600k home (which is a total starter home in working class area).
Be happy for high prop taxes - it keeps a lid on property prices. And will force people out of thier homes in areas that gentrify which forces the ‘higest best use’ of land example no beach front property with a 1955 shack on it (malibu ca!!!) due to tax issues this behaviour of ‘tax sqautting’ is punished.
“Be happy for high prop taxes”
No thanks! I’ll take my fixed 1.2%.
No income taxes but high property taxes. It averages 3.25% or a little more.
Texas homestead exemption available after living in the house past a year end restricts valuation increases to 10% per year. I wonder how many out-of-state speculators are homesteading in Texas? (Living in the home is required for this status.)
“shaved the hillsides of the trees”
This can be prevented…but then you’re called a tree hugging econazi”
Trust me, I tried. They wanted my lots, and I wouldn’t sell them for 5-8x what I paid for them.
Crime is really high in Cedar Hill…. So what is special about it?
Speaking of tree hugging, in Grapevine, TX
http://www.weekleyliedtous.com/pages/2/page2.html?refresh=1133390882067
People “lied to” by builders reps concerning the builders tree-friendliness. They have started a suit because they “paid a premium” for a wooded area development and the builder is not protecting trees per the city ordinances. Stacking stuff under the drip line of trees, for shame! And the developer-friendly mayor and a city councilman reportedly snickered at this trouble making couple - This Means War!
“‘The lenders have started to place tougher restrictions on themselves, but I think Congress will eventually step in,’ Trice said.”
“Trice and Perez predict that this may hurt Corpus Christi’s healthy housing market. Top officials with the Corpus Christi Association of Realtors said they did not want to comment on the issue.”
You know it must be bad when the Realtors cannot come up with a way to spin the story. When have we ever heard “No comment” from the Realtors?
“Are housing prices going down?”
Realtor: “No comment”
“If I don’t buy now, will I be priced out forever?”
Realtor: “No comment.”
“When I bought this dump using a toxic loan, you said I could refi before it resets. Now I can’t!”
Realtor: “No comment.”
When you said you had multiple bids and I found out you lied!!!!
Realtor: “no comment.”
Corpus’s market has been slowing for over a year now but the one newspaper in town has decided that it’s not a story worthy of their unbiased pages.
Home prices here have been coming down but not alot however, the prices are dropping on waterfront properties which would have been unimaginable 2 years ago. Also, 100’s of new waterfront lots have been developed but (surprise) nobody is buying them. If you ask any realtor it’s still “a great market, really!”
A friend of ours who exited CC’s realty world a few months ago insists that real estate is still a great investment (even though he wasn’t making enough to pay his rent)!
Not only is the kool-aid strong, it’s long lasting.
Is the Packery Channel project still going forward - that was supposed to lead to a boom on N. Padre Island. Has any one built a grocery store on N. Padre yet???
Packery Channel is done and housing sales on the island have dropped considerably since its completion. They sold the bond issue for the channel’s construction on the “fact” that it would make North Padre the next Miami. The channel was also 2 years late being opened.
There is still no grocery on the island but CVS is opening in about 3 weeks and the HEB +PLUS will be open in Flour Bluff in July.
A realtor who doesn’t want to comment on the real estate market?
Yeah right. Next you’ll want me to believe that a department of justice official is pleading the fifth amendment.
…or the smartest woman in the world, wife of a former president, a lawyer, who just cannot seem to remember anything.
no comment
2005 spin: “buy now or be priced out forever”
2007 spin:”sell now or be foreclosed on real soon!”
Seriously realtors are starting to spin the ’sell now’. However its against the law to ‘induct panic selling’ so its subtle. if that were not the case the NAR would be all over the ’sell now before the crash’ languange.
I’m so very conflicted on what i think will happen to the Dallas market as a whole. On one hand prices never appreciated the way they did elsewhere, and are still very affordable. On the other there were so many $40,000 millionares runnign around…
On one hand prices never appreciated the way they did elsewhere, and are still very affordable.
Oh really? Checked out the M Streets lately? My old rental there which went for 105K in 1989 now asked mid 300s.
Highland Park? Preston Hollow? Doubles and triples from the low.
It’s just the suburbs that haven’t appreciated and they never will.
“It’s just the suburbs that haven’t appreciated and they never will…”
Do you consider Hillcrest/Campbell the suburbs? The house we sold in that area in 1985 came on the market in 2002 for LESS than we sold it for.
Yep, that’s a dead zone. Anything north of LBJ, forget it.
Yikes!
In the DC area, the inner suburbs north of town (McLean, Bethesda, etc.) are still the place to be. But not so in Dallas, I guess.
Don’t mess with Texas- real estate, that is.
How bout the area… lower Greenville, south of the village, near White Rock Lake….. I know that stuff is overpriced to say the least.
You gotta know, I grew up in Lancaster, in the late 60s early 70s prior to the image it has now, which I think is suburban crack house…. too bad, such a short jaunt up the Suicide freeway into downtown. Whats a 3/2 run ya nowadays in Desoto/Lancaster?
IMHO Dallas surburban area housing will stay flat due to fleeing Californians thinking that they are getting a bargain at $100/sf when locals know it’s normally $75/sf.
any news on Corpus Christie is appreciated
tia
The Dallas News. “Dallas-Fort Worth’s apartment leasing continued to lag in the early months of 2007. Only 480 net leases were recorded in the area during the first quarter, a fraction of the more than 5,600 units leased in the same quarter of 2006.”
Whisky Tango Foxtrot?!?
I *never* expected that fast of a decline in Dallas. Never.
Something is really out of balance in Dallas. Incredibly out of balance in Dallas. Did someone do mass layoffs (that I missed)?
A change in order of magnitude of apartment leases is worthy of national news. What am I missing? I consider myself an educated bear, but this news has me a bit shocked. Don’t worry, its not as bad as when I found out the magnitude of the bubble in Arkansas last year (man that shocked me until I found out about the “Walmart” speculators).
Someone who knows more about Dallas please educate me.
Got popcorn?
Neil
It’s real simple. They’ve overbuilt everything that can be built, including apartments. They’ve shoehorned every Jethro and Hernando into a house already. The only people left to rent apartments are 19 year olds and hookers.
Dallas is so much more hosed than California, Florida or Arizona. I know you don’t believe that yet but check back with me in 2 years.
Left Texas 10 years ago, am moving back later this summer. What has happened to the Lake Dallas (is it still called that?) area. Resided there many, manyl years ago and loved it. Probably is not the same anymore.
It’s still called that and it’s still not bad. Lake Arlington is nice too and I’m seeing things very marked down around there. I don’t know why anyone would live in Dallas voluntarily when there are so many nicer areas in Arlington, Cedar Hill and Ft. Worth.
What about Carrolton? Need to be relatively close to downtown Dallas, but not too close! Thanks.
I wouldn’t buy anywhere on that 1-35 corridor. The traffic is as bad as LA.
Irving/Las Colinas isn’t bad.
Irving/Las Colinas - near DFW? Grapevine still farmland?
I lived in Irving when I worked at U. Dallas (now at Cornell). Talk about extremes. South of 183 is borderline bario, while north of 114 is McMansion central. The narrow region between the two was the only area I thought was really nice.
The shame was that south of 183 and close to 12 there are some very nice old houses - about the only thing you can get with pier-and-beam foundations in the area. However, the area is rundown and so much trucking industry has built up around them that it looks like they are never coming back.
I know exactly where you mean. One of my husband’s law school buddies lived there for years. It is all industrial around there now. Too bad.
One more thing about Irving.
I was there 2000 - 2005, and lived in an apartment complex the whole time (as an academic, it is unwise to buy pretenure). I saw my rent go down every year that I was there. And the neighbors got seeder and seeder every year. Started out with single old ladies above and below, then young couples, and finally deadbeats who sounded like they partied all the time.
Why the high turnover? Because they kept moving out and buying a home. Apartments were hurting for stable tennants like myself. That was in the height of the boom.
It is incredible how many aptmartments they have and are continueing to build around the Plano, Tx area. The complex I live in now people are moving in and out just about everyday. I don’t see how they can raise rents on anybody. No one has lived in the units next to me for months and I am moving at the end of this month. I like how they build them all with interior access garages out here. Tough to find that in Cal unless you rent an overpriced townhome.
Walker…
That’s an interesting discription of apartment tenants.
Alas, probably the NAR’s next FUD tactic…
There is a reason my latest rental is in a complex that offers a few more ammenities at $200/month premium over similar complex on the other side of the freeway. That little cost premium dramatically changed the personality of the complex.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Well, these days I am in Ithaca, NY. I can rent a farmhouse with acreage for the price I rented that apartment. No need to worry about the neighbors. I just have to put up with the cold…
Grapevine is pretty much built out. One of the last developments in Grapevine is completing:
http://www.davidweekleyhomes.com/community.asp?community=16680000
(You can still see the scarred state on Google Earth from years ago, before this development and the large resort on the lake was finished.)
Current population in the low 40k area. Doubt they will crowd out the vineyards for a few more houses
What has happened to the Lake Dallas (is it still called that?) area.
Its actually called Lake Lewisville now.
You are right- go to one of the online apartment guides and check out the lofts all over uptown, downtown, las colinas, plano- high end places where a nice 2b, 2ba is $1500-$2000 a month. You eould think it was Boston or San Francisco. The condos are just going up, so I’m curious to see how the market changes when these come on the market.
“Dallas more hosed than CA, FL, AZ” - you’re right, I don’t believe it, and will congratulate you on your insight if (in two years) it turns out to be true … !
TxChick,
What town do you live in and what town would you recommend someone coming to texas to move to?
No. 1: Dallas at the moment
No. 2: that depends on how many recreational pharmaceuticals they can get on a regular basis
recreational pharmacuticals are for whimps, now go down to the levy near Reunion Arena and get some good quality texas smack.
“The only people left to rent apartments are 19 year olds and hookers.”
But each hooker accounts for 4000 leases (by the hour)
and they picked up over 50,000 Katrinies
how many years of normal immigration is that ?
Speaking of Katrina, I was horrified to find something on my Form 1040 about “if you provided housing for a victim of Hurricane Katrina” … on my TEN FORTY, come on!!! No wonder the tax code is a mile thick, if Hurricane Katrina makes it onto page two of a decades-old form. Sorry, I just don’t think Federal Income Tax code is the place to try to address every single social problem we’ve ever had.
I took that deduction. I housed someone for two months.
I vote quote of the day:
“how many years of normal immigration is that” …very astute!
Bingada, Bangada, Boom!
Dallas added a bit over 850,000 people between 2000 and 2005 so a third of a year
no shit, 480 lease in a metro of over 6 million?!
“Dallas-Fort Worth’s apartment leasing continued to lag in the early months of 2007. Only 480 net leases were recorded in the area during the first quarter, a fraction of the more than 5,600 units leased in the same quarter of 2006.”
I wonder if some of this is due to the fact that people are renting from specuvestors? doesn’t show up on the rolls.
They got free “KATRINA TRAILERS” from the FED. They don’t need housing to rent.
Same problem has happened in N.O. with the govt. providing free houses, why would you pay rent? request a “free trailer”.
Neil,
please elaborate on the “Wal-Mart” speculators if you would. Thanks…
please elaborate on the “Wal-Mart” speculators if you would. Thanks…
Last year I was a bit stunned to find out there was a huge overbuilding boom going on in North Arkansas. Absolutely stunned. It turned out the root cause was the tidbit that Walmart’s headquarters had never stopped growing before. Thus, the employees were of the mindset that real estate only goes up. HUGE housing tracks were built in the Arkansas area. It turned out that the primary purchaser were people who “knew” that Walmart would only keep hiring so that they “obviously” would sell at a profit.
Now… not all the flippers were Walmart employees. But it was the mistaken belief that the region would keep growing rapidly that brough the speculative fever to Arkansas.
At this point, that corner of the state has years of unoccupied speculative housing to sell off.
However, others in this blog had to educate me about that speculative boom, so by all means listen to what they have to say.
Got popcorn?
Neil
I was in Dallas last December and looked at both apartments and houses. The area around Cedar Hill was weird because new homes are springing up everywhere while there is also a ton of resale and foreclosures on the market.
Re: apartments and condos, the uptown area in Dallas is exploding with high end properties. We saw a lot of loft style apartments for $1000+ for a one bedroom just a block or two from very questionable areas plus ultra luxury condos in partnership with the W and Mandarin Oriental.
In my opinion, the growth in Dallas looked like a house of cards since the high property taxes and history of boom and bust cycles restrain growth to a certain extent.
That story gave me plans for the weekend. I’m heading down to Cedar Hill to see what’s what. I’d buy down there if I could find an unbelieveable deal (I’m talking 800K place for 300K). I’ll take some pics.
See? You really love Texas, after all!
Dang it, I knew it.
But I’m still looking for ya in SF!
Lets look at the big picture.
Your average Texan probably has 150K home — Houston etc. I’d say in Austin its a 250K home. Your average Californian has a 500K home. In nice places its more like 800K+ in California.
Lets assume there is a 50% hair cut in the national market. Your over leveraged Jose in California looses 250K versus Texas Buba 75K. On high end, 400K loss for California Kitty versus 125K for Yellow Rose.
Moreover, with the higher tax rate, if one did own a million dollar home in Texas you would pay around 30K a year in taxes. No way people could pay that. Thus, no flipper population. Million dollar homes in Texas are for the truly rich. Moreover, its more about land around here anyways.
So, you skipped out of California and moved to Texas. You take the 50% hit which is way smaller than California then you have the rest in cash, gold or whatever suits you. No state income tax either.
Bottom line is people in Texas have less real estate exposure.
Just the facts. Over and out.
Facts about Austin 1985 - 1990
3-2 1300sf Round Rock (15 miles out) $80K –> $40K
3-2 2700sf Old West Austin (Pemberton 2 miles from the Capitol) $350K –> $250K
Foreclosures in Round Rock around that 1st house…probably at least 35% of the neighborhood went through foreclosure in 1987-1991.
This in a time when Austin was booming from high tech with 3% unemployment. Speculation drove it up and when the party ended, there were 30% of the houses as investor/rental units in the suburbs. Secreataries at IBM were flipping houses.
Lots of 0-5% down deals…not many ARMs. Interest rates were FALLING during this period (ARMs would have been good).
By 1991 it tightened to 20% down for owner occupied (10% down if bank owned and stellar credit). 25-30% down for investor.
That Round Rock $40K home bought at 9% 30 year fixed could be rented for $550 month in 1990.
Round Rock, Leander, Cedar Park, et al, all future foreclosure ghettos.
Did they really bulldoze new subdivisions in Texas in the late 80’s? I heard at the time they did that - if I recall correctly it was Houston.
Could not have said it better myself.
Here is a real world mortgage loan fact:
When I was in CA from 1998 to the end of 2004 the percentage of stated doc files I U/W rose from 10% to about half.
In DFW since the start of 2005 and the percentage of stated doc/no doc loans I have U/W is less then 15% and has been very steady.
You’re correct - in Texas, there is PLENTY of land. The central Austin areas are expensive but if you want to live in the suburbs, there are a ton of new developments going in. In fact, the City of Pflugerville saw housing prices drop last year even though there was a boom in demand.
Basically the builders relied on the fact that anyone with a pulse could get a mortgage. Every subdivision I have visited in the last year had a “zero down / zero move in” sign. Bad Credit / No Credit was the motto even at the high end places. There were 30 minute approval handbills being passed out at the supermarket. Now that the easy credit days are over, builders have sobered up. It will probably save us from a major housing disaster which is what I expect in Florida and Arizona, but there are still a lot of potential foreclosures out there.
The central Austin areas (that are good) should be expensive. A great 1930s house 2-3 miles from downtown and not far from uptown (183-Loop 1 area) is quite rare compared to the tens of thousands of McMansions in the suburbs.
When we moved here to Austin, I looked outside of Austin city, realized that Austin City and Travis county tried harder to protect trees. Its amazing to drive up 1 and see trees on both sides. Since we prefer to see trees, decided to live in Circle C. I can get to down town in 15 minutes on week days (leaving around 7.45 am). I used to live in LA then Ventura county. What we have here would have cost us at least 3x more in Cali. At the same time historically when things correct in Texas it has been pretty ugly …
Those run ups were mostly pure land speculation. This time its driven by speculation with bad mortgage practices. At least the data says there is less sub-prime and zero down loans in Austin than most places … not sure whether its true or not. Also, we first looked to move here in 2001, and then finally moved in 2006. I did not see too much of a difference in prices in areas we were looking. I think 9/11 forced some correction in Austin, which took another 3-4 years to recover.
“In nice places its more like 800K+ in California.”
You’re off by 100% at least. A 90% haircut of Texas prices has already happened in the westside of LA. That’s why there is no way, no way in hell, that any place is more doomed than San Diego, the Orange Curtain, the LA basin, and San Francisco proper.
There’s just one minor problem with your argument.
People WANT to live in those places in California. Texas is where you go when you can’t afford California anymore.
California will always have that demand.
That is just your opinion.
We could have stayed in CA but it was not the same state we grew up in….
CA of the 70’s and 80’s had great schools and the best public university system in the nation. (I am a UCSD grad) The economy was humming and the people around you were friendly and happy. Things have changed.
My family is enjoying a better life here in the northern DFW area. Better schools, lower taxes, more employment opportunities, etc, etc,
Not everyone wants to live in CA. (anymore)
I also went to UCSD in the 80s for additional education. You have kids so that’s a minor additional consideration. If you have settled here happily, I’m glad for you but the average SF or LA native would be in a rubber room after about 6 months of living in this place.
Los Angeles county = 29% caucasion and declining. (35% of county is foreign born hispanic!) below is from wikipedia:
Demographics (as of 2005)
AS OF JULY 1ST, 2005[[5]]:
* TOTAL POPULATION: 9,935,475, a 4.4% between 2000 and 2005, or about 27% of the state’s population.
Non Hispanic Persons: 53.2%
* White(Non Hispanic) : 29.5%
* Black: 9.7%
* Asian: 13.1%
* Other: 0.90%
Hispanic or Latino: 46.8%
* Other Statistics
* Male Residents: 49.4%
* Female Residents: 50.6%
* Residents Aged under 18: 27.6%
* Residents Aged between 19 and 64: 62.3%
* Residents Aged above 65: 10.1%
* FOREIGN BORN: 36.2% (MAJORITY FROM Mexico)
* Poverty Level: 17.7%
Thanks my fellow Triton,
Well many people have kids so it is an important consideration.
I remember reading back in early 2005 that families with school aged kids were moving out of CA because they felt that their grandchildren would not be able to stay in CA due to the high costs and poor education system.
A sound education system also is a factor in driving the expansion of the local economy. Companies move to areas with low costs and good schools.
It does take getting used to the new “environment” – but it has been worth it.
Now if we could just get an In-N-Out and a Del Taco built in the north DFW area.
As far as most caucasions in CA are concerned there is NO PUBLIC SCHOOL SYSTEM. It doesnt exist. They think its only suitable for immigrants.
Now imagine you are a company trying to get people to move to a state with no public schools? You have to pay enough for them to pay for private. Its a big issue. huge. There are a small number of ok schools but homes in those areas are 1mill+.
schools and housing prices are THE issue of our era in CA.
Or bring back the El Toritos which I see from one of yesterday’s threads they still have in California. I have fond memories of the one in Mission Valley. That’s where I was proposed to
They had a few here in TX but they’re gone. Sucks.
Comment by txchick57
2007-04-05 14:34:39
I also went to UCSD in the 80s for additional education. You have kids so that’s a minor additional consideration. If you have settled here happily, I’m glad for you but the average SF or LA native would be in a rubber room after about 6 months of living in this place.
That is soooooo true. I was bouncing off the walls for the first few months. I found the mountain(flatland) bike trails and am a happy camper now. You Texans have built some great trails and I don’t have to waste 3 hours in traffic to get to them. I can ride them everyday.
I went to El Torito Monday night!
(But it was the El Torito Grill in Beverly Hills. The food is quite a bit more gourmet than the regular cal-mex El Torito.)
go to the one at the SO Galleria area
Your observation couldn’t be more accurate. People, esp. Asians, moved to Texas when they could not afford CA. This activity has been very active in the last 2 years. I recently considered doing the same when two of my friends moved to Texas. I could not give up the CA weather or the entertainment. When CA becomes more affordable, people from Texas will tend to move back to CA. Anyone in CA moving to Texas?
Well … I lived in CA and moved to Texas - Austin. I was in TO, moved because of family and afford ability.
First need to make the point, unless you are living in a beach city or very close to the beach, except for humidity weather in CA is worse than TX. Inland cities in CA is as hot or worse than TX.
After being in Austin for 1 year heres what I think
1. People - have not bumped in to Red Necks, really nice people, specially where I work.
2. I see more trees in Austin than I ever did in Cali (lived in LA and TO)
3. More ethnic food than Ventura county.
4. Housing is 1/3 that of TO
What are the negatives
1. No beach, or takes way too long to get to the beach.
2. More things to do in LA/Ventura, specially more places to visit.
3. Weather is better closer to the beach in CA
4. Every thing except housing and gas seem to be more expensive here (electricity, natural gas, car insurance)
Personally I am happy here, don’t think I will move back unless we feel like CA is a better place for our kids to grow up. I would not live any where else in Austin. I stayed in CA partly because of kids, did not want to move to TX because did not think TX was a good place to bring up my kids. But then discovered Austin, now I am more than happy.
I’ve been to SoCal and wouldn’t want to live there. The traffic is horrible and nobody speaks English. It is also way too expensive. I would rather save my money and go on vacations and enjoy life instead of living hand to mouth just for nice weather.
You must be kidding me…
I would love to see LA and SF get a haircut. The reductions are moving so slow I just don’t see how they will hardly ever get down to reasonable prices.
oK, I’ll play one down too. Try the Central Valley: no money, no equity, 50% price drop and the benefit of 110 degree summers. Heaven on earth to a lizard.
Oh amen to that brother. And let’s talk about the winters where a deathly pall of grey tule smog grips the valley for a good two months on end. Man, it makes you understand why the Scandinavians all want to commit suicide in the winter.
Missing the point. The California transplant has less at *risk* in Texas real estate. We took some chips off the table. Good luck to all the people with 800K arm loans in California. We don’t need the massive loans here in Texas. All the land has suppressed the prices.
By the way, the average income in Austin is about 50K a year. The average income in San Diego is about 50K a year. I see a problem.
Sure there was an oil bust in the 80s. Moreover, lets don’t forget all the dollar devaluation in your statistics.
I’ve got less skin in the game now.
Tell that to my friend who paid $9M for a house in Highland Park and can’t sell it now for $8M.
Thats got too hurt…
Was a flip/investment home? Hard to feel sorry for anyone who can buy a 9m home. No subprime zero down for him.
No, he was an equity schmuck from a big East Coast city who . . . . . SUPRISE! didn’t like it here and wanted to go back!
No problem, just leave your $1.2M at the door when you go.
Oh well, I guess he wins a darwin award. He put more skin in the real estate game…
The person he bought his house from, must be very happy…
Thought it may have been Jimmy Johnsons’ cousin…but I do like Dallas. Lots of great resturants. ..but yes, so much to choose from. I though hillcrest, preston areas were ok.Prices were reasonable,but what do you do? shop, or go to the lake…? I like Texans the best always a handshake and an invite. As for Austin I was there 5 years ago it was an absolute gridlock due to an unexpandable interstate through the center of town. Now with the boom !? I hate to think…as is so repeated here, there are miles upon miles of land that stretches forever..Never will be a shortage..
9 Mil for a house in Highland Park? You’ve got to be kidding. Ever driven through there at night? He’s lucky if he can get half that now…
There was no oil bust in Austin in the 1980s. That housing bust was speculation driven.
Off-topic, but I don’t give a crap…
Overheard right behind me at the Tampa Airport at this moment: a 20-something guy just got off the phone with Fidelity or someplace wanting to know why the proceeds of his recent stock trade aren’t available for withdrawal since he traded three days ago. He turns to his wife/girlfriend and says, “I hope we have enough money for the closing.” The wife says she might be able to get her dad to write a check if the liquidation doesn’t come through. “Will it automatically transfer to Bank of America?” The guy isn’t sure, and he’s getting sullen. She asks, “What’s the matter?” They fall silent. Worry is setting in…
So they don’t even have enough liquid cash to bring to the closing… Wow…
Followed by a phone call to the Realtor…”The closing isn’t Monday, is it?”
Dumb luck, again. They’re being saved by their stupidity.
Not to worry. If these people are buyers, they will be beaten up a little bit and then allowed to close on Tuesday instead. Nobody is going to let them walk away.
That’s just what appears to be happening, lender.
Give that couple a break. Maybe, just maybe, they’re putting at least 10% down, and need to come up with $30K or even a lot more at settlement. How many of you have that amount in your checking account? If you do, your money management skills need honing.
Always have that amt in checking acct. True, my $$$ management skills need honing.
Ditto. (But I’m also looking to buy a new car ASAP.) I’m trying to sell my Jetta with 100K in miles to my realtor but he keeps saying he doesn’t have the money to buy it. My realtor doesn’t have $4000 to buy a used car (yes, he walks everywhere in L.A.) I think I need a new realtor.
“My realtor doesn’t have $4000 to buy a used car (yes, he walks everywhere in L.A.) I think I need a new realtor.”
Realtor… Walk… LA…
Yea right are you kidding me. Dude that’s a transient you’re buying your real estate from.
He’s just fallen on hard times. I call him my realtor but it’s not like I’m buying anything right now.
If these people are buyers,
or perhaps they’re sellers bring money to the table.
That’s what it sounds like, doesn’t it.
Buyers already figure on the ’skin in the game’
Sellers are already don’t have a clue
Hope they’re selling and not buying.
While it is interesting to hear that the larger home builders are holding back, what is not being hindered is the massive condo building in the downtown area. We have over a dozen projects in permitting right now. This is addition to the condos already under construction. Most of these condos are priced above $250K for a one bedroom – which by Austin standards, is nuts.
I’m not sure how they run their figures, but Realtytrac Says Cedar Hill has 245 Auction homes, 448 Bank owned homes, and only 410 new and resale homes? Wow!
I’m planning to spend half the day on Saturday looking around.
I will now attempt to talk Texas out of a tree…
It’s alright, come down slowly, wait!
Not so quick, you weigh a lot~
You’re really big (not as big as Alaska, though)
arggggghhh!
Splat~
My wife hates our Texas trees. I want to leave them to attract the next generation of FB’s. I just don’t want them to fall on me or my neighbors in the meantime. (They already squashed a hot tub and part of the border fence with one of their own trees.)
I think my wife has no true concept of the a/c savings having only a partial western sky opening gives us in N. Texas. Mowing a few leaves in the fall is a much smaller price to pay…
Oh,
About the Southwest in general?
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8OAJMB80&show_article=1
Hey, Mr. Charbroiled: Whaddya reckon this goes for in the real world? This dude has been flogging this place for months at this ridiculous price:
http://dallas.craigslist.org/rfs/306597177.html
why is the kitchen so tiny on such a large house? its like an apartment size. wtf
I ask that all the time when I look at McMcMansions (the smaller version) around Northern VA. The kitchens are actually smaller than in some condos.
Betcha he’s a small time builder slowly roasting on the coals of hell and a construction loan.
DANG. That was flagged QUICKLY. One hour after your post? There are some eagle-eyed people on Craig’s List.
Hey, txchick57
You got battery backup?
TXU threatens to close power plants
http://biz.yahoo.com/bizj/070405/1443617.html?.v=2
“that TXU (NYSE: TXU - News) made extra profits by abusing the wholesale power market.”
Ross Perot involved again…against brother Texans?
Incestuous….
I think Texas can stop TXU in their tracks by threatening to file criminal charges for price fixing - but I don’t think our regulators have the balls or brains.
No backup generator here but what I do have is a nice short position in TXU stock. That is a truly odious company.
I live in the mid-cities(between Dallas and Ft. Worth). What is interesting about D/FW is how there can be a real nice area and then a few blocks away there are prostitutes roaming the streets. All in all housing is affordable in this area. You just have to understand how property taxes and utilities will eat you alive.
I consider myself middle class. From my vantage point this housing bubble will ruin many people. The sad part is there are people like me who will end up paying for the cleanup. I am such a fool. The list of people who made out like bandits is long. Their greed has made me ashamed to be called an American. Sorry to get off topic. Thanks to all the posters who have shared some useful information. It truly is great to find other people who refused to swim with the tide.
You are no fool. You will be left standing.
“On The Edge Of Decline In Texas”
Texas’s been going over that edge from inception. We should return it to Mexico and apologize.
Looks like California’s already been returned to Mexico.
As long as they agree not to pursue legal action later. We can keep Valley Ranch as the US embassy.
I traveled through west Texas once and thought the moutain areas pretty nice, Alpine and Marfa, Van Horn and the big bend park. Wide open out there. Dallas area very green and not a good place to live if one has hay fever.
I’m a Texan and I still think it is the greatest state. I’ll never back down from that statement.
Realized that none of comments or replies ever gets posted here. Guess will giveup replying/posting.
I believe there is a bubble may be even with that my comments must be too positive to get posted
Ignore the previous comment … relized that the last reply/comment got posted ….
I am a displaced Texan, living in Ohio due to a job transfer. I cannot express how much I miss Texas…the food …the people. The North has nothing on the South. The people here are so brainwashed. They never question their elected officials. Taxes keep going up and no one asks what we are getting for our money
Is anyone else who reads this site disturbed by the casual latino / immigrant bashing on this site? Why is it a problem that LA has a high percentage of immigrants from Mexico? Or Dallas for that matter? Yes, I understand how race impacts property values but that does not mean that one has to endorse the sentiments motivating that process. See Hellokitty’s comment above for a prime example of what I’m talking about.
The problem with the out of whack realestate market is rooted in crazed fiscal, tax and Fed policies made in D.C. Can we focus on that rather than freak out that–what a novelty–immigrants are moving into American cities?
You may wish to consider that many of the subprime no money down mortgages were given to illegal immigrants, who when foreclosed, we the public will end up bailing them out financially and when the economy gets worse and it will, your attitude may change.
Maybe because most other immigrants come here legally, try to assimilate and don’t have more children than they can afford. Just a guess