April 6, 2007

“There’s Just Too Many Options Out There”

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Home prices fell nearly 2 percent last month in Colorado Springs and the Pikes Peak region, the first decline in a little more than three years. Sales also were down sharply last month. Supplies of homes on the market, meanwhile, were way up.”

“‘That’s why we’re lagging downward,’ Benjamin Day, manager of ERA Shields Real Estate’s northern Colorado Springs office, said of prices. ‘There’s just too many options out there.’”

“American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. cut its first-quarter and full-year profit forecast by more than 25% Friday after being hit by problems in the secondary market for home loans and mortgage-backed securities.”

“The company also said that it’s stopped offering some types of so-called Alt-A mortgages because of the high cost of delinquencies on those loans. The warning suggests that problems in the subprime-mortgage business have begun spreading to other parts of the home-loan industry.”

“Subprime mortgages are causing a dramatic spike in foreclosures throughout the city with Queens homeowners facing the most devastating effects.”

“‘It’s really been a feeding frenzy the past few years,’ said NEDAP’s Executive Director Sarah Ludwig. ‘When you see a pattern where there are so many in a year or two, that’s a flag that goes up that maybe they [the loans] weren’t affordable when they were made.’”

“Builders are growing more pessimistic about the spring selling season, the National Association of Home Builders says. One reason for their grim outlook: Mortgage lenders are making it harder for potential buyers with tarnished, or ’subprime,’ credit to qualify.

“The downward sales trend ‘is pretty serious stuff,’ David Seiders, chief economist for the home builders association, said. Sales of new homes, which fell 21 percent last year, could take another pounding this year.”

“‘I’ve been sitting here with a pencil and eraser working on our forecast,’ Seiders said. ‘I started out two weeks ago expecting about a 2 percent decline for new-home sales this year. Now, I’ve got them down 8 percent, and I’m not sure that’s enough’ of a cut.”

“Retired businessman Tan Phong is not only willing to fork out more than 1,000 Singapore dollars ($660) per square foot for a condominium apartment, he will even queue overnight on the street just to get his dream unit.”

“‘I only stayed on the first night,’ said Tan, who recruited four friends to take turns standing in line for him. ‘It’s very uncomfortable.’”

“Ho Chi Minh City’s land department recently proposed to the city government solutions to ease skyrocketing property prices in new urban areas in the southern metro.”

“Many real estate companies are in dire financial straits, thus few businesses have adequate financial capacity to realize the housing projects. ‘This has led to a gap between supply and demand,’ said HCMC Natural Resources and Environment Department head Tran The Ngoc.”

“Arizona State Treasurer Dean Martin was in Kingman Wednesday to address the Arizona Association of County Treasurers. ‘Our employment numbers are still strong, but the real estate bubble has burst,’ he said. He was unsure what effect the downturn in the real estate market would have. The real estate market was a big help in keeping the state afloat during the last recession, he said.”

“‘Really, the question is population growth. Can it grow us out of the bubble burst? Will it chew out the excess capacity (in the housing market)?’ he said. In the last seven months, his office has seen a declining bank balance, he said. Last month saw a 20-percent reduction in the amount of operating funds.”

“The pace of single-family house construction in Anchorage continued to slow last year, and area builders are preparing for another decline this year. A dwindling supply of easily developed land and a large inventory of existing homes for sale that have significantly appreciated in value over the past several years are largely to blame for the deceleration, builders say.”

“‘We are getting pinched,’ Eric Schach, president of the Anchorage Home Builders Association, said Thursday.”

“This season, however, (builder) Chuck Spinelli’s biggest project isn’t going to be a single-family housing development but a three-story, 24-unit condominium complex in Bootlegger Cove. ‘I’ve got two kids in the business, and if we’re going to stay alive in Anchorage, we’re going to have to start building a lot more of that kind of stuff,’ Spinelli said.”

“Foreclosures among Oregon homeowners increased 40 percent last year. Nearly one-third of all Oregon mortgages issued in 2005 required interest-only payments, according to the Oregon Center for Public Policy.”

“Senate Bill 965 extends consumer protections for so-called High Cost Home Loans. Sen. Larry George panned the bill. ‘If someone is being deceptive, I’m with you,’ George said. But it’s not the state’s role to ‘protect people from being stupid,’ he said.”

“Oregon State Senator Jeff Kruse said one of the problems facing state legislators is that there has been little trend projections. He said the state could be in a world of hurt sooner rather than later.”

“‘The capital gain bubble is passing. Real estate is tanking, or at least flat and trending down. We now have a Rainy Day Fund. At this rate, it will be raining next February,’ said Kruse.”




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118 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-04-06 14:08:54

My thanks to those who support this blog. I hope you all have a great weekend, and check back tomorrow for news, your market observations and topics.

Comment by sd renter
2007-04-06 21:00:47

“But it’s not the state’s role to ‘protect people from being stupid,’ he said.”

Thank you Georgie boy. I couldn’t have said it better myself.

 
 
Comment by Lisa
2007-04-06 14:51:11

“Nearly one-third of all Oregon mortgages issued in 2005 required interest-only payments, according to the Oregon Center for Public Policy.”

I bet the same or higher % holds true for 2006 buyers.

So, roughly 1/3 of the state’s recent buyers will be facing payment shock when those loans reset. Peachy.

Comment by jerry from richardson
2007-04-06 15:57:49

That will do wonders for consumer spending when their mortgage payments rise by $700 or so a month. This will happen at the same time as $4 gas hits for the summer.

Comment by waaahoo
2007-04-06 17:06:47

Speaking of consumer spending here’s some surfers dicussing recent price declines of vintage surfboards.

http://jamboards.com/view_topic.php?id=3899&forum_id=1

Comment by GetStucco
2007-04-06 17:26:24

Excellent! I am expecting lots of deep discounts on collectibles over the next couple of years…

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Comment by SD_suntaxed
2007-04-06 17:59:44

A friend collects antique furniture and was talking with a dealer in the southeast recently. The dealer was talking about how much great inventory she had sitting around, but stated the fact that people were no longer buying with their home equity. Business was way down. Same friend has noted that auction prices and estimates he has watched are going soft.

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Comment by REhobbyist
2007-04-06 18:01:56

When I lived in OC in the 90s I couldn’t even understand surfers’ language. Where did these intellectual surfers come from? The ones I knew were mostly headinjured from being hit by their own boards.

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Comment by combotechie
2007-04-06 20:37:36

Furthur evidence that Cash is King once again.

Pay close attention to the problems of people who “lead lives of quiet desperation” and you will discover that ready cash will solve most of them.

Cash rules; Debt sucks.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by AKRon
2007-04-06 14:56:41

“This season, however, (builder) Chuck Spinelli’s biggest project isn’t going to be a single-family housing development but a three-story, 24-unit condominium complex in Bootlegger Cove. ‘I’ve got two kids in the business, and if we’re going to stay alive in Anchorage, we’re going to have to start building a lot more of that kind of stuff,’ Spinelli said.”

Ah, my hometown. If I recall correctly, Bootlegger’s Cove was an area that overlays a nice, thick layer of wet clay. During the big (9.8 magnitude) Alaska Earthquake in 1964, a lot of the property there was underwater, and I’m not talking about a mortgage that is too high. If your lucky, your penthouse condo might end up street level :)

I spent that quake bravely huddling under the kitchen table…

Comment by BanteringBear
2007-04-06 15:03:30

“This season, however, (builder) Chuck Spinelli’s biggest project isn’t going to be a single-family housing development but a three-story, 24-unit condominium complex in Bootlegger Cove. ‘I’ve got two kids in the business, and if we’re going to stay alive in Anchorage, we’re going to have to start building a lot more of that kind of stuff,’ Spinelli said.”

By letting emotion rather than logic dictate his course of action, Mr. Spinelli will learn a painful lesson.

Comment by cyppok
2007-04-06 20:08:06

location loaction location anchorage can only go up there is no more land there rrright?!!! lol

 
 
 
Comment by az_lender
2007-04-06 14:56:45

“a large inventory of existing homes that have significantly appreciated in value over the past several years” means
“a large inventory of existing homes for which wannabe sellers are asking 2005 prices”

Comment by kThomas
2007-04-06 15:11:32

lol…true.

same BS going on here in CoCo county, CA.

Major disconnect with sellers. People are STILL expecting buyers to pay outrageous prices….nobody is buying. There are new home (built in 2004) that have had 5+ owners, never been lived in, still on the market. It’s completely pathetic.

 
Comment by Rich
2007-04-06 17:32:24

I was gonna quote that drivel also!!!

Sooo, funny!! Existing value of for sale homes!!!! WTF is that supposed to mean.
If its for sale now you have no Idea what it’s value is. Get a willing and able buyer and an offer and we can discuse the existing value, a 10% security depost passed to seller woulb be enven better.

There is only 1 time you can know the market price of a home. And after that the above rule also applies.

It ain’t sold till it’s sold and when it’s closed it is gone.
Even with the same model home as yours their sale has nothing to do with yours. In this market the next 100 qualified buyers to see your property may take years. With the subprime money funnel closed off and a lot of these people not having showing in weeks todays HOPEFUL SELLER is FRICKIN CRUSHED!

All these sellers hoping for a buyer are in for one hell of a painful ride. IMHO If they are not selling that home today that are not going to sell it.

If they are using anything but a complet list of competing property and not setting theirs priced to be the lowest for any comparable listing on the list they are hosed.

A buyer may hold off writing an offer for a comparable home your area that is listed higher than you, but will not delay to see a more expensive one. All this “my $25,000 in upgrades, hooptie air appliances and stone counters” sellers are squalking about is such stupidity. If your not the lowest price in the area the real buyers will never even see your POS kitchen countertops =)

 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2007-04-06 15:11:24

The 3rd inning has now begun…

Bears 52
Bulls 0

(David Lereah has struckout twice looking)

Comment by nycjoe
2007-04-06 15:30:55

Must be a double-header underway. In New York, we’re in garbage time in the opener: Bulls 97, Bears 2 in the 9th.

Comment by manraygun
2007-04-06 16:55:16

Fantasy league, right?

Comment by GetStucco
2007-04-06 17:25:40

He is referring to the 2005 season…

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Comment by nycjoe
2007-04-06 17:41:56

I wish. It’s as if the Royals have won their first couple and the fans are a dreamin’ big.

 
Comment by mgnyc
2007-04-06 18:27:52

unfortunately njcjoe is not referring to a fantasy league
except for the outer suburbs and the real shady areas
people are still asking unreal prices for their castles

oh well keep saving

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by az_lender
2007-04-06 15:18:59

Ho Chi Minh City housing bubble, very funny. Too bad they didn’t try capitalism in the days when it worked a little more predictably. (If it did.)

Comment by az_lender
2007-04-06 15:24:55

PS. around December i posted a personal prediction that the number of Australian dollars to buy 1 US dollar would fall from (then) $1.27 to $1.22 by June. Today in fxhistory I see $1.2218. Well, now I actually don’t know what to predict. I don’t think the US dollar has a terribly bright future, but the main reason why I pick AUD is just that you can buy (AU) govt bonds yielding near 6% in AUD — unlike Euro’s, where you can’t buy any kind of yield. Someone on this board must have some better ideas than I do.

Comment by jerry from richardson
2007-04-06 16:46:24

Try FXA

Australian $ plus 5.75% yield

 
Comment by technovelist
2007-04-07 03:27:47

Don’t reach for yield. There’s a reason currencies have different yields: different risk. Go for capital gains with the Swiss Franc.

(Not investment advice, etc.)

 
 
Comment by the_voz
2007-04-06 16:03:30

Has anyone been to Saigon in the last couple of years?, How on earth can that sh*thole of a piece of earth have anything remotely resembeling a housing bubble. Most of the residents dont have two plug nickels to rub together. As far as expats “getting in on the ground floor”– laughable.

May as well make a real estate land grab in southern Cambodia, no, even better…..Luang Prabang, Provincial Capital of Laos, its different there, eveybody wants to live in a landlocked country in the deep mountains, as a farmer, or perhaps a Budhist Monk begggin for alms… my chocolate covered A$$.

I feel sick

Comment by desmo
2007-04-06 16:11:34

Has anyone been to Saigon in the last couple of years?,

No but I have driven thru Westminster.

 
Comment by MBRenter
2007-04-06 16:52:26

They aren’t making any more land in Antarctica!

 
Comment by Operation
2007-04-06 17:09:28

Phucket Coast Condos for everyone!

I do love that name. So appropriate.

 
Comment by east beach
2007-04-07 06:08:15

Was there last year. It’s a booming city, tons of factories sprouting up around Bien Hoa. But note the bubble is not from average city folks mortgaging their way into condos like the West, it’s mostly foreign investment.

 
 
Comment by implosion
2007-04-06 19:04:39

Ho is rolling over in his grave.

 
 
Comment by John in GA (was John in VA)
2007-04-06 15:21:31

“Builders are growing more pessimistic about the spring selling season, the National Association of Home Builders says. One reason for their grim outlook: Mortgage lenders are making it harder for potential buyers with tarnished, or ’subprime,’ credit to qualify.

Was anyone else struck by the absurdity of this statement? It’s supposed to be hard for people with bad credit to qualify for loans! You shouldn’t have to lower a forecast because you can’t sell to people who are bad credit risks, unless you based your forecast on the opposite assumption. It’s like saying, “We based our sales forecast on the assumption that we could supplement our revenues by selling crack cocaine to high school students, but then we found out that it’s illegal, so now we have to lower our forecast.”

Comment by GH
2007-04-06 15:27:15

I would not loan money to someone I thought had a good chance of stiffing me, and I doubt wall street investors are interested either. Perhaps if they GASP! lowered their prices they would not have to lower their forecast…

 
Comment by BubbleViewer
2007-04-06 16:56:40

Exactly. Recently, Peter Schiff commented that Fannie Mae came out and said they would no longer fund loans for which there was a strong likelihood the loan would not be paid back. The obvious conclusion from that statement is that up until now, they HAVE BEEN funding loans which would likely not be paid back.

Comment by GetStucco
2007-04-06 17:36:46

Some natural follow-up questions to your excellent observation:

1) How bad is the subprime damage to Fannie’s balance sheet?

2) When will they come clean with the ugly truth?

3) Will a bailout be necessary?

Comment by Inspired
2007-04-06 20:57:34

GStucco:
1) Why not askLehmenBros they stuck Fanie with $12billion or so
before they realized, they had been “punked”

2 ) Still waiting 6 years now, before this Sub-prime fiasco….”Truth, we can’t handle the truth” - Fannie has been effectively insolvent for 5 years….

3) Bailout YES but who can do it? The US govt with its $52 trillion in debt ?

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Comment by combotechie
2007-04-06 20:43:09

This used to work for the lenders when they didn’t have to eat the bad loans they wrote. Now that they do they’ve suddenly all gotten religion.

 
Comment by John in GA (was John in VA)
2007-04-07 07:10:09

The obvious conclusion from that statement is that up until now, they HAVE BEEN funding loans which would likely not be paid back.

Exactly — it’s like saying, “Good news — I’ve decided to stop beating my wife.”

 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-04-06 17:28:35

“Was anyone else struck by the absurdity of this statement?”

Yes. It must be nearly impossible to get a subprime loan when nearly all the subprime lenders just went out of business.

 
 
Comment by Sniggle
2007-04-06 15:21:55

While on the road today I heard a commercial that just blew me away.

I thought it was going to be a commercial advocating fiscal responsibility, as it started out stating things like ‘you want an exotic vacation, but you don’t take it’….then it mutated into a refinancing add. it ended with the most absurd statement: Let you house finance (or fund, I forget) your dreams.

I though all of these commercials would be gone by now. How could anyone still consider this a viable method to fund a lifestyle.

The band is continue to play…simply astounding

Comment by dimedropped
2007-04-06 15:48:33

The band did the same on the titanic. All the way down.

Comment by zee_in_phx
2007-04-06 15:52:08

you stole my thoughts… a few minutes early…

 
 
Comment by zee_in_phx
2007-04-06 15:51:11

the band was still playing while the Titanic sank…

got cash?

Comment by pismoclam
2007-04-06 19:33:33

Don’t tell them to stop. I’m still trying to get out of my last one.

 
 
Comment by Blacque Jacques Shellacque
2007-04-06 16:52:55

Well, I saw a Bank of America HELOC commercial on the tube a couple of days ago…

 
Comment by BubbleViewer
2007-04-06 16:58:36

Like the commercial where the couple is discussing college tuition for their children. The wife explains that they can refinance the house to pay for children’s college. The house as 401k, ATM, college financial aid program, etc.

 
Comment by mgnyc
2007-04-06 18:32:52

lol i heard a commercial today as well
take a heloc to pay of all your bills.

they show this couple who did that and then the husband said and now i bought a boat?
lets see can’t pay your bills so you borrow more money to pay off your bills and then buy a boat?
wonder what demographic they are appealing to

Comment by cyppok
2007-04-06 20:12:45

phuket coast condominimum demographic lol

 
 
 
Comment by irmaron
2007-04-06 15:32:51

OT but interesting: Was talking to some retailers who told me that they are revamping their return policies for electronic gear. Seems people have been carting the large screen tv’s out of the stores for big sporting events and the like and then returning them to the store for a refund. I guess some of these consumers are getting quite creative in areas outside the housing market.

Comment by kThomas
2007-04-06 15:38:07

That’s pretty bad. People like that deserve to have a hand cut off, teach them a sharp lesson.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-04-06 15:42:04

This is why many large retailers have cracked down on refunds. Too many refund abusers out there.

Comment by tcm_guy
2007-04-06 16:24:55

A manager at a Target told me they get returns of ladies dresses after they have been worn. They lie about not having worn it but the garment has BO so they have to trash it since they can not launder it and sell it as new, a complete loss for the store.

THIS IS STEALING!

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Comment by cyppok
2007-04-06 20:14:46

I would agree with you most of the time except when things are bought and appear nice but are defective. The worst thing is when they have a refund policy with stocking fees and you bought something defective.

 
Comment by BubbleWatcher
2007-04-07 07:09:27

Keep in mind that clothing has margins in the range of 50%-90% (price to cost to manufacture), so I personally do not see issues with occasional returns of used clothes - you tried it, it did not work — why should you take a risk and not the store? You are paying money after all.

This policy is also good for the stores and they will inevitably get back to it. I noticed when a store has a decent return policy, I buy things from it fairly easily and in the vast majority of cases I keep it. On the other hand, if the store’s policy is too restrictive — I treat my purchase as a potential 100% loss, so the chances of my buying there decrease dramatically. I may buy eventually, but only if I absolutely have to.

This is not the impression the stores want us to have, so again, I presume they will have a decent return policy on average.

 
 
Comment by GH
2007-04-07 05:26:30

There is apparently some kind of database out there that tracks abusive returners. We recently returned a “worn” but defective pair of shoes to Costco and they gave us no problem. I return well under 1% however, so why should they give us problems. A couple of years ago, someone was returning a $90 bottle of champaign (almost empty) - We did not like it - DUH return it FULL …

Anyway, I will not buy from a retailer with a poor return policy, so it is really up to the retailers to weed out the bad apples - Too high of a return / purchase ratio, perhaps the store can refuse to sell / return for that customer …

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Comment by dimedropped
2007-04-07 06:30:24

i dated a gal once who would buy things just for the pleasure of ringing it up. Some sort of psychosexual thing I am guessing. Anyway she would get home and start planning the return. A couple of time she asked me to do it for her as she was on the no return hitlist. Basically they had tracked her history of returns and shut her down. Oh yeah she was also Bulimic…think there was a connection?

 
 
 
 
Comment by BanteringBear
2007-04-06 15:41:27

I would imagine there’s a significant amount of buyers remorse amongst big ticket purchasers who can’t even make the mortgage payment.

 
Comment by homoaner
2007-04-06 16:04:07

The other reason for the large number of television returns is that there’s a glut developing in flat screen tvs, with resultant prices falling. A NY Times article last month said the industry is expecting tv prices to drop by as much as 40% (yes, forty percent) by July of this year. Because the prices are falling so quickly - and so much - people who recently bought a tv are returning it in order to repurchase it for the lower price, or to trade up to a nicer tv at the same price.

There are eight factories that make the flat panels used in just about all flat-screen tvs. Regardless of the label on the set, the panel’s from the same eight companies. Since their production is peaking, prices are crashing.

Comment by Michael Fink
2007-04-06 16:46:42

Is this flat panel TVs only (LCD and Plasma) or also the rear projection screens?

Seems like the last time I was in CC (not that long ago) I was rather shocked at how low the prices were on the very large (60+ inch) projection screens. I don’t know if that’s also a glut, but anyone who spent 10K on a 60″ “Full HD” screen last year is definately not too happy right now.

Comment by Steve
2007-04-06 17:22:18

Mark Cuban (owner of the Dallas Mavericks, made his money in tech) was on the Jim Rome show a while back…..said that there was so much flat screen production coming online worldwide in the next couple of years, that 48-52 inch flat screens would be around 7-800 bucks by around 2008.

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Comment by B-hamster
2007-04-06 17:34:23

Sheesh! For that price it better come with a ‘clicker’ like my 1982 19″ has.

 
Comment by REhobbyist
2007-04-06 18:09:56

I thought I was cheap B-hamster, but you win the prize. I’m going to save this post to show to my sons when they tease me.

 
Comment by mgnyc
2007-04-06 18:39:55

are there rabbit ears on the 19″ ?
with tin foil on the end to match your hat?
just kidding
i do not own a flat screen tv either i am waiting for the under a 1000 prices

 
 
Comment by JTZ
2007-04-07 05:12:02

Giving an example, consumer reports says 1080p LCDs dropped up to 78% since last year. They project the same factors will drive down prices this year.

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Comment by mgnyc
2007-04-06 18:35:23

i just bought a new laptop and the store told me they have a “restocking fee” of 15% on returns
i would presume to deter this type of behavior

 
Comment by jerry from richardson
2007-04-06 19:41:38

Target’s been doing that for years already

 
 
Comment by sm_landlord
2007-04-06 16:10:44

OT, but at Economy.com’s Free Lunch (freelunch.com), Housing is today’s top search, followed by interest rates and CPI.

A few weeks back, someone posted a link to great source of demographic data on this blog, but I can’t find the link or remember who posted it. It was a site with a home page chock-full of links to reports on all manner of economic and demographic data. Anyone know this one?

Comment by homoaner
2007-04-06 16:18:00

“A few weeks back, someone posted a link to great source of demographic data on this blog, but I can’t find the link or remember who posted it. It was a site with a home page chock-full of links to reports on all manner of economic and demographic data. Anyone know this one?”

http://www.melissadata.com/

Comment by sm_landlord
2007-04-06 16:27:45

Thank You!

 
Comment by BanteringBear
2007-04-06 19:03:00

That’s a fun site, however I have found some troubling discrepancies in their crime data based on other research I’ve done. They list the national crime index average 490 and then have Garden Grove, CA at 310, Compton, CA at a 424, and then on the other hand Oroville, CA at 984, and Twin Falls, ID at 668. This is grossly inaccurate when compared to other sites crime indexes. I’m not sure where they are getting their data, but it is not accurate.

 
 
 
Comment by the_voz
2007-04-06 16:14:31

“Oregon State Senator Jeff Kruse said one of the problems facing state legislators is that there has been little trend projections.”

Why not just move the projector back away from the wall just a couple feet, the projections get much LARGER.

He cant be this stupid. Maybe the cords just too short. Im not sure how to explain this.

Comment by REhobbyist
2007-04-06 18:11:26

Groan.

 
 
Comment by Shireen Gonzaga
2007-04-06 16:25:39

Hi … sorry to post this here, but maybe someone knows the answer. Does anyone know what happened to the Baltimore Housing Blog (http://www.baltimorehousing.blogspot.com/)? Nikki went on vacation last week and someone was supposed to guest blog for her while she was away. Three days later, it had been converted to a Chinese-language website. I’m concerned that it’s been hijacked by hackers or something like that. Thanks! shireen

 
Comment by imploder
2007-04-06 16:35:55

All of a sudden, a “new” idea “surges” to the forefront:

http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/moneyhappy/28438

“You were lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time. Is it time to bail out?”

Comment by Rich
2007-04-06 18:13:39

“While the troubles of subprime mortgage holders have dominated the news, just 5 percent of all outstanding mortgages are delinquent”

HA, HAHA, HAHAHAHAH!!!!

Shit isn’t 5% of all loans bad a lot? I have put much thought into this overall, but not much on how these will work out in %.

I would think that 5% at this point is a lot. Shit we are just starting this ride. I guess the spin placed on this allways positive. “just 5%” could have eaisy been “up till now only 5%” and suggest a start rather than end. It cracks me up when the MSM blathers about the bottom, isn’t the past bottoms like 47 months or something? At most were only into this 18 months and this RE bubble is much larger than any in the past. With 5% belly up now on a 4 yr bell curve at the peak we will have a peak of 10%? 15%? I actually checked excell for a bell curve chart, funny they dont have on on my old office, anyone have a link to make a bell curve?

But, it will amaze me that the MSM can (straight faced) stand on public record and minimize 1in20,gonna be 1in10, gonna be 1-7 and might be even more people losing their homes!!! The sping on RE seems to not stop anywhere, I wonder how negative the media really got on RE in the past downturns. You hear about the good spin, but forget the negative shit cause it all turns to noise.

Comment by cyppok
2007-04-06 20:25:07

5% and rising we might get to 8% but the real fun is gonna start at double digits… that will make all illusionary projections dissapear and plunge prices into a no bottom freefall.

Comment by dimedropped
2007-04-07 06:37:15

In the worst of times the FHA fallout rate was about 4%.

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Comment by Patch Tuesday
2007-04-06 18:46:27

Man, I love all the real estate pukes plugging their contact info and claiming they have a heavenly location waiting for you in the comments section of that article…

 
 
Comment by rentor
2007-04-06 16:55:12

OT - I heard Circuit City is firing established workers making higher wages with lower workers getting less money. How will they afford any kind of housing in the US of A.

Some of the workers are suing for age discrimination.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070404/circuit_city_lawsuit.html?.v=1

I say boycott Circuit City.

Comment by rentor
2007-04-06 16:57:44

So the goal is to always have people working at minimum wage. This is more likely to lead to more bubbles as people don’t see any other option to get out of the rut. Lie on your application you will be bankrupt or you will have a decent life.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-04-06 17:07:01

And companies wonder why employee loyalty is dead.

 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-04-06 17:31:49

“How will they afford any kind of housing in the US of A.”

I guess home prices will have to fall to a level where workers can afford them at lower income levels?

Comment by In Colorado
2007-04-06 22:25:19

Trailer park nation?

 
 
 
Comment by AZ_BubblePopper
2007-04-06 17:02:00

That AHM warning is big news. AltA lender that was supposed to be insulated from the “subprime implosion”, even according to their PR release in early Mar that lifted their shares $5. Now the bomb they drop on the knife catchers and the stubborn longs. Their statement is a must read. Major reversal in fortunes for lenders that do minimal documentation and ARMs/OptionARMs. They are buying a lot back and can’t find bids for what they have in their pipe in the secondary market. Sneaky to slip it in on Frday when the market is closed.

Should be good for a savage crushing of the lenders’ shares across the board on Monday. Luckily I am sitting on AHM puts. Expecting a bloodbath all month long…

 
Comment by moqui
2007-04-06 17:13:03

“‘I’ve been sitting here with a pencil and eraser working on our forecast,’ Seiders said.

allow me,

go in bathroom, straddle toilet, place nail approx 6′ above finish floor elevation, hang gary watts signature series dart board (the kind with +10, +15, +20) stand back, aim for toilet.

 
Comment by Brad
2007-04-06 17:16:01

I would delay buying RE indefinitely.

I just saw Children of Men.

Do not, I repeat do not trust the future.

Only baad things will happen from now on…

Just trying to fit in.

Comment by mgnyc
2007-04-06 18:43:10

thanks brad for your witty banter
yawn

 
 
Comment by Operation
2007-04-06 17:16:12

“Senate Bill 965 extends consumer protections for so-called High Cost Home Loans. Sen. Larry George panned the bill. ‘If someone is being deceptive, I’m with you,’ George said. But it’s not the state’s role to ‘protect people from being stupid,’ he said.”

I’d vote for this guy again.

Finally, a voice of reason in government. It gives me a glimmer of hope that we are not a nation of total idiots.

Comment by GetStucco
2007-04-06 17:24:20

“Finally, a voice of reason in government.”

Let’s hope it is contagious.

Comment by Rich
2007-04-06 18:16:03

HAHAHHAHA, you optimist are very amusing!

 
 
Comment by mgnyc
2007-04-06 18:46:03

he must be a communist. or some other un-patriotic sort
we must keep buying!!!

 
 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfruede
2007-04-06 17:18:49

“I don’t think the sky is falling,” he said. “I think the year started slowly and with the 30-to 60-day cycle between contract writing and closing, we’re still seeing the effects of January and February.”

No, the sky won’t start falling for another couple of months, when we start seeing the effects of 40% of would-be buyers eliminated from the market because they’re subprime or alt-A credit risks, and therefore can’t get financing.

Comment by GetStucco
2007-04-06 17:23:03

I think it will work like this:

1) Absence of alt-A and subprime buyers results in “larger-than-expected” price declines;

2) High risk (high LTV / no doc / interest only / payment option ARMs, etc) loans to prime customers go sour with falling prices;

3) Further tightening of standards to avoid high risk loans results in more price declines;

4) More prime foreclosures result.

This downward spiral could last a while if bailout measures are used to slow it…

 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-04-06 17:19:31

“The company also said that it’s stopped offering some types of so-called Alt-A mortgages because of the high cost of delinquencies on those loans. The warning suggests that problems in the subprime-mortgage business have begun spreading to other parts of the home-loan industry.”

If prices continue falling, next to feel the pain will be the prime lenders who loaned out money at high LTV and/or using high risk (principle-deferred) loans, like option ARMs, I/O ARMs, etc.

Comment by flatffplan
2007-04-07 05:23:25

just 3 weeks ago alt-a was secure, and solid

 
 
Comment by Brad
2007-04-06 17:25:37

After THE FALL, you will be able to pick up a slightly dilapidated McMansion in Fort Worth for a pocketful of silver Kennedy 1964 Half Dollars ;)

Comment by JTZ
2007-04-07 05:15:43

Then what? Would you want to live in and maintain it?

 
 
Comment by geeah
2007-04-06 17:28:53

Totally unrelated, but after having a very interesting and heated discussion on homeownership with a co-worker, we ended up talking about the interest deduction on mortgages.

I had found some information about your interest deduction could be affected if you mortgage was more than the fair market value of the house… does anyone know more about this? if so any details would be appreciated…

Comment by death_spiral
2007-04-06 20:49:39

geeah:

the rules on deductiblility of mortgage interest are…

1. “Acquisition indebtedness” is limited to $1,000,000. Any refi over the original amt of debt becomes “Home equity indebtedness”

2. “Home equity indebtedness’ is limited to $100,000 and can not exceed FMV of house reduced by acquisition indebtedness

 
 
Comment by txchick57
2007-04-06 17:46:42

Orange County Craigslist. Ex-New Century?

I lost my job need help to pay my rent and my bills
Reply to: comm-307427953@craigslist.org
Date: 2007-04-06, 5:02PM PDT

I’m a 35 years old single woman with no kids desperately need your help. I have never asked for help but now I just have to. As you know due to major lack of work in mortgage & banking industry it’s very hard to find a job. I have a degree but since all I did in the past was mortgage and banking; my resume is not suitable for certain companies and I’m having a major problem finding a job that can pay for my rent and utilities. I can’t find the job and I’m seriously struggling. I really need to pay my rent and my other bills for the month of April & May. I have been trying other opportunities but I haven’t been too successful. I can work and ready to start asap
Please help me if you can, It’s not easy for me to ask for this huge favor but I don’t have anyone to go to. Thanks so much

Kimberly T.

Comment by mrincomestream
2007-04-06 17:54:34

Wonder what her degree is in?

Comment by death_spiral
2007-04-06 21:11:33

pole dancing

 
 
Comment by Brad
2007-04-06 18:05:01

nice catch!

It’s hard to find an overpaid job these days now that legalized ripoffs don’t fly

 
Comment by mgnyc
2007-04-06 18:50:00

you mean she did not save for a rainy day?
well there is always pole dancing

good find txchick
online begging is so 2006

 
Comment by ylekiot1
2007-04-06 19:12:20

Job hunters getting backlash from those doing the hiring? I wonder….

 
Comment by implosion
2007-04-06 19:30:35

Just put your mouth in the shape of an “O” - cash will follow, (cf Faye Dunaway character in “Barfly”).

 
 
Comment by Brad
2007-04-06 18:26:18

I’m not buying a new Jag until I can get one with my 10 oz. bar of .999 pure silver.

Unfortunately, by that time Peak Oil will have passed and it will cost a $20 St. Gaudens Gold Eagle to fill the tank ;)

Comment by tj & the bear
2007-04-06 21:36:12

After reading “The Long Emergency” it occurred to me… the SUV is (ironically) the vehicle of the future. What else can carry large numbers of people, carry & tow necessities, plus easily traverse crumbling roadways???

Comment by txchick57
2007-04-07 05:05:56

That’s why I finally bought one (FJ). I have apocalyptic visions of the future and need to be able to get out if necessary ;0)

 
 
 
Comment by Dan
2007-04-06 18:59:55

This has been all over the news today:
http://www.wtlv.com/news/strange/news-article.aspx?storyid=79403

Fake Craigslist ad caused house to be demolished by scavengers

Comment by dan
2007-04-06 19:17:58

“Raye believes the unknown person who posted the ad carries a personal grudge against her, but that person also conned unsuspecting people into taking part.
When Raye contacted Craig’s List she received an email back saying they can’t release information about who posted the ad without a subpoena or search warrant.
Raye uses the house as a rental property and recently evicted the tenants. So far they have not been named suspects.”

So far?. Oh come on, this one is cut & dry EZ.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-04-06 19:22:13

The recently evicted tenants of a house up the street from me did the same thing. It wasn’t as bad as the Craig’s List house, but these ex-neighbors did prove their talent for vandalism.

 
 
 
Comment by incessant_din
2007-04-06 19:47:55

from the CO Springs article:
“But Briargate, the sprawling suburban subdivision on the Springs’ north side, is in better shape.”

Yeah, but you can rent a 2000+sf, 2story+basement, on 1/3 acre there for $1300/mo. My SIL was doing that before she bought in the mountains at $580K. Makes me sick to think about it. CO Springs is no different than any other place with lots of new construction.

I remember 6 or so months ago somebody posted that they had just bought a 35ac plot near CO Springs, and paid a little on the high end, thinking they got a great deal. That made me sick, too. From what I saw in the CO Springs market, sales were s-l-o-w last year, and slowing as time went on. This article confirms that.

 
Comment by rms
2007-04-06 20:13:25

“Retired businessman Tan Phong is not only willing to fork out more than 1,000 Singapore dollars ($660) per square foot for a condominium apartment, he will even queue overnight on the street just to get his dream unit.”

If you have to line up to buy something, you’re getting screwed.

Comment by Home_a_Loan
2007-04-06 20:48:22

This is true. Something else, if you win an auction for something, you have usually overpaid. This is called “Winner’s Curse”. (Well, this is true if the participants are unaware of the curse. If they are aware, it’s supposed to go away.)

 
Comment by Patch Tuesday
2007-04-07 06:57:29

I would argue that the retail day Black Friday is an exception. Note the electronics dealers that posted losses after selling flat panels and laptops at huge discounts. People came in and grabbed the sales items, and then departed…

 
 
Comment by cyppok
2007-04-06 20:34:38

cant wait ’till double digist foreclosure rates people will stop making illusionary soft fall projections and will scream how housing is going bust with constant price falling. Everyone will quote how houses never appreciate above inflation historicly and with sunk costs are a poor investment and shouldn’t be speculated and used for shelter only. I can see some smart guy saying all this around 2009 or 2010 and everyone next to him nodding.

 
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