Post Your Housing Market Observations Here
Please post your housing market observations here! One reader started off in the topics thread. “Local radio station has a real estate guru on the air waves on Thursday, plus he appears on a nightly tv program. He was beside himself promoting a new mortgage product to keep the high priced real estate going. Next week he is going to talk about the 40 year mortgage.”
“Yesterday he announced that they just released the 50 year I/O loan and he had the owner of CMG Mortgage on promoting his home ownership accelerator mortgage. His cohort suggested that 40,45,50 year mortgages make sense because people will be living to be 100. When is the madness going to stop? If this keeps going homeowners will be paying more for houses and their monthly tax bill will be higher than their monthly P/I payment.”
Another recalled a nervous flipper. “I posted a couple weeks ago on one thread about about an open house and discussion with a ‘desperate flipper’ in Phoenix area. How ’bout having other post their similar experiences just to get an idea of the level of concern/fear/panic that is starting to set-in the flipper mentality?”
One points out the latest spin. “Here’s another topic: Data Holes; whether real estate data providers are holding back information that would show market declines, or if they are releasing it, are spinning the data to confuse readers.”
“My two candidates are NYSAR, for holding back their figures and now REBNY, which issued a fancy press release about how much prices went up in 2005, but do not include data for each quarter in their press release site- last quarter I see in their list of press releases is for 3rdQ 2005, which, oddly, indicated median co-op prices went down (tho condos went up) - and can’t see 4Q to determine whether they went down again.”
A reader from Oregon replied, “I wonder whether the number of listings at Realtor.com is accurate. They have dropped below last summer’s levels here in Portland, ME and have dropped rather dramatically in just the past week. Of course to artificially depress listings would mean some listed homes not being advertised. I suppose they could equitably rotate missing listings so as not to be noticed by sellers.”
One reader noticed a marketing change. “I would love to hear if there are any long time renters here who have only just recently been approached by realtors for the first time. We have been renting in this area for 11 years, and just this year for the first time, a realtor has left a calendar and business card on our doorstep.”
A similar tale, “I got a magazine sized solicitation from Countrywide looking for investors for loans I believe. I still see banner ads asking, ‘Do you know how much money is locked up in your home?’ Before it was hidden and you solved a puzzle to acquire the equity. Now it is being held hostage and you need to bust it out like a prisoner.”
And another, “How has your biz changed? The trades I sell to think it’s weather etc., wierd can’t they see the RE stall. I’m getting slow signals already selling to the service trades.”
‘My two candidates are NYSAR, for holding back their figures and now REBNY’
The NYSAR release was odd, and the REBNY release was a joke. As far as spinning is concerned, why can’t the Arizona Republic report on vacant houses? They will quote Jay Butler wondering, ‘how many speculators are out there’, yet when I emailed him about the 14,000 vacancies, he directed me to the MLS. Come on Jay!
A reader from Oregon replied, “I wonder whether the number of listings at Realtor.com is accurate. They have dropped below last summer’s levels here in Portland, ME and have dropped rather dramatically in just the past week. Of course to artificially depress listings would mean some listed homes not being advertised. I suppose they could equitably rotate missing listings so as not to be noticed by sellers.”
I have noticed that Salt Lake City has about 1/3 of the normal listings from the last 5 years. Thinking this must be a mistake or some kind of system problem with the Utah MLS (which is publicly available via http://www.utahrealestate.com), I asked some people there I know what was going on.
No joke. Their response was; California flippers have invested the area and bought everything they could get their hands on. Utah has seen 5% total appreciation from 2000 to 2004. Last year they saw nearly 20%.
The credit bubble is investing every available non-bubble housing area chasing returns. Will they get crushed at the low-end since Utah’s economy has been on a crash course ever since NAFTA? No prognostication, but there is literally nothing to buy in the SLC area. The contagion has spread to some of the most unlikely places. There is literally no income in the area, and 6 month old flipper homes are going for 120K greater than they were a year ago. (up from 260K, nearly 50% higher)
There are plenty of these losers stuck in suburban Dallas houses too. Using that keen sense of value that has stood them all in good stead in Clownifornia
they have chosen to buy tranches of tract built crackerboxes in places like McKinney and Frisco. Oh, my, talk about God’s waiting room for your money . . . really, it would have been better to take it to Vegas where at least you are entertained while the house is fleecing you . . .
Utahns generally don’t gamble.
just be happy that most US citizens are oblivious to what happens outside their country; otherwise they would by now all be snapping up RE bargains outside their own country - just like the Europeans have been doing for 5-10 years already.
As long as the bubble keeps expanding US homeprices will keep climbing or at least remain where they are now.
It’s already happening. Speculators are now “buying” condos in Mexico and some Central American countries. The reason I put “buying” in quotes is that gringos aren’t allowed to own property in Mexico within 60 miles of the coast, which is where all of this is happening. It was only a few years ago that a community of gringo retirees were forced out of their houses when the Mexican Indians asked for their land back…
Funny… this week, I received my first junk email soliciting RE in Costa Rica, of all places… so I guess the flipping game has moved south, eh?
Costa Rica???? I hear Wisconsin is the next best place (I sh!t you not!!!)
If you want a shock, look at the (high) prices of houses in the Dominican Republic, at least anything near the water. Can’t figure why.
It’s already happening. Speculators are now “buying” condos in Mexico and some Central American countries.
Absolutley..in fact I could hardly believe it when as flipping through HGTV last week, I saw that they have a new program about buying condos in Mexico. How nuts is that?
Bubble fever has hit SLC. On my drive home from work last night, I noticed that 50% of the billboards were advertising something from the real estate industrial complex. There’s “invest in real estate call 800-xxx-xxxx” signs on every street corner. Every other radio commercial is “I’m sure you’ve heard about this hot utah real estate market and want to get a piece of the action. But you lack two things, the money and the know how. That’s no problem now, with your good credit, we’ll help you buy new home construction and help you make 50-60k in 3-4 months with no cash out of pocket.”
Inventory is unusually low and sellers are really jacking up their asking prices. In the townhome I live in, the units around me were going for $125k last year and now asking prices are around $160k. I spoke with the HOA president and he said that dumb californians are buying up the units sight unseen and think that 160k is a bargain.
I really do believe that the dumb Californians are buying up the RE here. During the last RE downturn in CA, SLC went up in price and was in fact the highest appreciating market in the country. Incomes definately don’t support the prices. Typical jobs here pay $8-10/hr and both husband and wife work with 4-5 kids. The median family income is only $45k/year. 3 bed/2bath houses are now north of $200k. There’s no way a family making 45k/year can afford to buy a house costing $200k/yr.
prepare for things to get worse …
In my area in the Netherlands there are small ‘friendly’ villages with hardly anything to do (certainly no real work) where rich buyers from the Randstad (that’s similar to CA for the US) and some foreigners have driven up home prices by more than 1000% in about 10 years time.
A few local people got filthy rich from this, but all the young people have left (too expensive to survive) and all small businesses except for some luxury restaurants etc. have closed. Except for the summer season it looks like a ghosttown there (and if you visit in summer you have to be careful, otherwise you might get run over by a Lamborgini or Porsche).
So do you think the NDL investors will stay put if and when the market shows signs of instability? Out here in California, if prices do eventually hit 1000%, I’d wonder who the suckers, I mean buyers would be? An investor based economy can only carry on for so long.
there was some price instability about 3 years ago, but prices are rising again (up 20% from last year); speculators and homeowners feel more confident than ever that the boom will continue so nobody worries about expanding inventory.
Many of these buyers are ‘normal’ citizens who feel totally entitled to the money they got from the bubble (of course, most of it has speen spent already). Another part of the buyers are probably criminals who are investing their money (mostly from soft/harddrugs) in real estate.
The correction of a 1000% rise can only end badly. At least guns are illegal here, that might help a little - although probably not for angry criminals that want their money back.
Besides its status as Mormon Central, Utah is also known to be the scam capital of the world…
I agree that the pickings are slim in SLC at the moment, but California flippers can’t be the only reason for this. Perhaps not even the main reason. Note that inventory took a nosedive from 6400 to 2745 in the first week of September 05. Looks to me like the local housing market revolves around the school year…
In the greater sacramento, CA area there is a highway (65) that takes you out to Lincoln where there are a bazillion new homes for sale. I just noticed yesterday that all of the home development billboards along the highway (Centex, Beazer, etc) are ALL covered up. There has to be at least 15 billboards covered up. What is going on??? Is this a conspiracy or something?
I think they are hiding 95% of inventories now to create a sense of urgency to the remaining fools. Unfortunate for them, sales continue to slide and they have almost exhausted all the fools exist on earth.
probably couldn’t pay the rent anymore
Must be getting new billboards and they dont want the new buyers to know what the old buyer’s paid
Wizard is probibly right…They are changing their marketing criteria…
Desperate flipper story and comment on Realtor.com
I was showing homes to a client in Queen Creek(S.E. of Phoenix, scads of new homes) a month ago. While eating lunch, with our listings and maps spread all over the table, it was obvious we were in the area looking at homes. A gentleman at the table next to ours starts a conversation that went like this. He leans over, and “Psssst ,hey, Psssst” you wanna buy a house. Us:Well yeh, we’re lookin at homes. I’m a broker and there are plent y to see. Gent: “Hey, I’ve got two for sale, maybe you’d be interested in one.” Us:whaddya got. Gent: acouple of 4 br homes.Us: that well be more than my client wants to spend. Gent: I’ll carry the mortgae, you can get in with a low down. Us.will, that will give us too large a payment. gent: we can work something on that too. end A year ago you couldn’t find a house, now they are practically givin em away. End of story.
Realtor.com signs up local MLS’s to feed the inventory to their site. Not all mls’s want to participate, in fact i think the number is decreasing every year. Also, a brokerage or agent can opt out from having their listings on the internet. This may explain the sudden drop, as many mls’s may not have renewed their contract with R.com at the start of the year. Just speculating(oops, I said a dirty word)
. Also, a brokerage or agent can opt out from having their listings on the internet. This may explain the sudden drop, as many mls’s may not have renewed their contract with R.com at the start of the year.
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Noticed this big time in Bakersfield in the last 30 days. Our inventory is up 250% over last year. Yet lately the new listings have slowed. I have driven by numerous homes (yes I need to get a life) that are not in the mls, but still for sale, I have called on many of them just to make sure they are not sale pending. Something stinks when they start hiding inventory!?
That is interesting. I have seen houses for sale to here that are disappear from the internet mls. Not sure what is up here.
Another reason is the RE agent might be trying to cut corners. It costs them out of pocket to put it on Realtor.com. If the RE doesn’t feel very good about the property selling (i.e flipper with an overpriced property, lots of inventory, nothing special about the property) maybe they are trying to save their own money. I’m always surprised at the number of agents that cut corners by not putting a picture at all, or multiple photos or VR tour. I would expect my agent to do it ALL or I wouldn’t give them the business…however, if my house is just another piece of overpriced crap in a market saturated with them….why bother?
Quick market update on Bakersfield, for the month of February 2006, per a respected local appraiser who is on a Saturday morning show:
1. Sales volume down 30% over last year and down 21% over last month.
2. Prices up 24% over last Febraury (UGH!!!!)
3. Inventory up 250% over last year.
4. Median Prices are now at August 2005 levels (finally some slowing in appreciation)
5. Notices of defaults now at 2,200 the most since 1998. This is still well below the levels of 1991-1997, BUT, they are climbing!
Filthy words: told you so. Told you a week or two ago about the promotion of multi-generational mortgages. Now the key question will be answered: Is this a speculative bubble which will pop or will it turn into a speculative mania? All of the groundwork is there for a collapse, but manias are inherently irrational. The looming conflict between the power of mass media and the unrelenting pressure of laws of economics will be fascinating.
we already have multi-generational mortgages in Europe for some years; they can probably delay the inevitable for some time but as far as I know they are not very popular. Mostly used by ambitious young starters with no money and equity-rich parents.
Really? It seems like German bankers get the heebie-jeebies thinking about granting anything more than a 10 year mortgage with 20% down.
But that, plus the economy going nowhere, is probably why housing prices have been pretty much flat here.
KIA, I agree. Just when you think it has to crash, it doesn’t. I know, I know - be patient - but are homebuyers? Not so far.
Here’s the stats on North SD County bubbleinfo.com
Interest only loans are already of an infinite term. You cannot make a payment lower than IO, other than negative amortization (when the principle increases with the unpaid interest).
Infinite? Yes and no. The interest-only feature would only qualify the term as infinite if there were no reset after 5 or so years to jack up the payment to cover higher interest rate + amortization of principle over a condensed 25-year period. Luckily prices are going up so quickly that most of these I/O borrowers will be able to retire off the capital gains they make when they sell in five years
His cohort suggested that 40,45,50 year mortgages make sense because people will be living to be 100.
And yet, I’ve seen commercials on televion that echo the following:
According to a report by the International Journal of Pediatric Obesity, nearly half of the children in North and South America will be overweight by 2010. If this trend is not reversed, health officials have warned, today’s youth could be the first generation in recent history to have a lower life expectancy than their parents.
Full text here:
I guess we’re headed for multi-generaltional loans then.
It’s interesting, isn’t it? Rampant consumption not only of material goods (flat-screen TVs and SUVs), but also of high-calorie food. Can any wealthy civilization survive it’s own affluence?
They are still more expensive than the teasers on I/O’s.
Won’t make a damn bit of difference - it’s over.
The other thing that cracks me up about the 40, 45, and 50 year loans is that employers have been dumping their employees after 45. So if you get your Masters at 24 ya got 20 years tops. Or you’re going to have that mortgage into retirement or while you’re bagging groceries at the local store.
Not sure if it falls into the topic of desperate flippers, but the NAR is clearly getting nervous; I can’t get through 15 minutes of watching the tournament basketball games today (go Bucks!) without seeing their “realtors take exams and stuff, so they must be ethical” ads. It’s really becoming annoying.
So what’s the Bucks supporters’ view on how Bogut is going? (We get a very hometown-boy-made-good media view here in Oz.)
The question that comes to my mind is why they feel the need to pay for an advertisement touting how “ethical” Realtors are. From personal experience, my husband and I hired a Realtor to help us close on a house that WE found. The new 6-month home had standing water and mold in the crawl space. Our Realtor and his Realtor Broker both said it wasn’t a big deal. To make a long story short, we ended up having to hire a couple of lawyers to get out of that deal. So, it’s not wonder that “Realtors” have to pay for ads claiming how ethical they are.
I like to watch the market in south boston. The neighborhood is all 2 or 3 family houses. Over the last couple of years developers have bought up MOST of these houses and turned them into condos. A lot of flippers have purchased these units.
Well all of the sudden they are not moving. The inventory keeps growing and growing. Also, looking at MLS most of the pictures show empty units. The owners must be hurting form the carrying costs.
I was in the hardware store today and I overheard a couple of guys talking to the fellow at the register. They were asking what is happening with the market, their units are not selling. The fellow replied that “they are selling, just really slow.” and “It looks like some people are dropping their prices to move their units.”
(BTW- the number of listings in South Boston has grown dramatically over the last couple of weeks).
AZ is now at 38,091 per ziprealty.
Some people think Queen Creek is bubble central in AZ but
don’t forget about tiny Maricopa (small city on way
to San Diego outside of Awahtukee). This city of a few thousand new homes has 992 of them for re-sale. I bet on a (#re-sale / #total homes) ratio that Maricopa beats Queen Creek.
>His cohort suggested that 40,45,50 year mortgages make sense
Assume you are buying a $500,000 house…
A 30 year fixed at 6.25% would have monthly payments of $2463.
A 40 year fixed at 6.25% would be $192 less a month.
A 50 year fixed at 6.25% would be $283 less a month.
A 100 year fixed at 6.25% would be $375 less a month.
So instead of buying a $500K house with a 30 year loan, the 40 year loan would allow you to buy a $542K house with the same payments.
A 50 year loan would allow a $565K house with the same payments.
A 100 year loan would allow a $590K house with the same payments.
So, in this case, you could “afford” 8% more house with a 40 year, 13% more house with a 50 year, and 18% more house with a 100 year.
Longer than 100 years, the monthly ’savings’ (hah!) you get REALLY trail off…100 year vs. a 1000 year, the monthly payment difference is only about $4!
So, with our $500K house example, the most that longer term loans could help price inflations seems limited to 18% or so. After that, you could have a billion year loan, and it wouldn’t make a bit of difference.
Scary.
I live in what’s been thought of as a “housing-recession-proof” town on the east coast of Florida. Vero Beach, halfway up the pennisula on the Atlantic. Wealthy snowbirds, affordable (so far) for the people who work here. Of course the area has built out like everywhere else. Half of new owners come fleeing urban south Florida, half down from the cold.
I live three long winding blocks from a main road. As an equity investor I’m very interested in where the economy will be in the future.
My own housing measure has been the number of for sale signs on the three blocks in from the main road.
A year ago there were no signs at all.
Four months ago there were four or five on new townhouses just in from the main road. “Flippers getting worried,” I thought.
Today there are eight town houses and six single family houses with signs in front of them.
a constant rate on longer dated maturities does not make sense, given that you’re not sure who’s going to foot the bill further out. i think if you put higher coupons on the longer dates, the “monthly payment” decrease would become less attractive. i’m too lazy to put hard #s behind it, though
Longer maturities make sense at the 5.5% 6% rate level. If rates get to 7% or 8% a 50 or 100 year mortgage isn’t going to reduce the payment much because there is so little principal repayment already.
Inventory in my neck of the woods is approaching historic levels.
I don’t see any desperate sellers yet in my neighborhood. Everyone is trying to capture their 50% markup while offering a 5% discount. Listings are absolutely off the chart nearly triple from last year. The only good thing is we’re getting rain in AZ after 4 1/2 months.
Just a couple quick observations from the Dallas area.
1) Radio ads (I don’t listen all that much though) seem to be increasing, and getting more desperate sounding. Builders are throwing in everything free and an extra kitchen sink to lower prices without actually lowering them.
2) The billboards along I-30 (east). I’d swear the billboards for various new housing projects have all changed recently to tout lower price developments. It seemed to me a up to a couple months ago they mostly touted ‘communities’ (ha) with an a typical price range of $160k - $240k. Now they all seem to be for lower price developments in the $100 k- $150k range. Or it could be that I just don’t pay enough attention.
believe it or not things appear to be ramping up here in kennebec valley ME for the spring selling season.
Have noticed 6-8 pending homes in a few neighborhoods I watch in the last 2 weeks, following what has been a totally dead first 2 months of 2006.
The bubble may have some froth yet, while prices may stagnate rates are still historically low so 2006 may still see plenty of action.
We took a drive yesterday and happened across housing in what’s politely described as the “modest bedroom community” of Soledad, CA. Soledad is a remote farm town that’s most famous for having a state prison. One house in a lower middle class neighborhood was amusing and eye-opening. (In a neighborhood where I would NEVER live, let alone buy.)
My wife grabbed a sales sheet from the box and the price was handwritten as “$450,000″ with “$480,000″ was crossed out with an X. The funny thing is that the $480,000 figure had been written over a carefully whited out number, of $595,000! Getting urgent? Getting sloppy? The house (385 5th St.) comes up with a $650K estimate on Zillow.com…but the seller is eager to sell at $450K…with houses in that area selling for $250K just 2-3 years ago…
I am in Amesbury MA, and there is a lot on the market, but I am surprised at home much is selling, and how much at or near asking price. House up the street from me went for full price, 430K, after a few days on the market.
I think you are just over the border from New Hampshire. Sounds like they may not quite yet have a bubble. See the article below:
March 12, 2006
Experts in NH say there was no real estate bubble
By NANCY WEST
Sunday News Staff
10 hours, 55 minutes ago
TRYING TO SELL your house? Buying your first home? Living in fear of the real estate bubble bursting?
Housing experts say the downturn that some predicted would decrease the value of a home by as much as 20 percent in New Hampshire hasn’t materialized.
In fact, the housing market is thriving and healthy here for buyers and sellers. And home prices did not and are not likely to decline, experts say.
“The hype has been wrong. So far, the hype about a bubble was wrong,” said Dean Christon, deputy executive director of the New Hampshire Housing Finance Authority.
“We never believed there was a real bubble in the New Hampshire market. Our projection was that the market would slow down and go back to a normal rate of growth,” Christon said.
And that seems to be exactly what is happening in New Hampshire.
The big increases in home values by up to 15 percent a year since 2001 are slowing a bit.
But house prices are still increasing a healthy 5 to 6 percent a year, a much more sustainable growth that will make future bubbles more unlikely, Christon said.
“Prices are still increasing. It is still a healthy market. The rate of increase has slowed. That’s probably good news because it is more sustainable.
“A more normal rate of increase makes it easier to enter the market, and people who already own homes don’t have to worry their house is losing value,” Christon said.
“People need to understand the rate of growth will slow, not that values will decline.”
And rates are still pretty good, he said.
In March 2005, the conventional 30-year mortgage rate was 6 percent. This March, the rate is up slightly to 6.375, Christon said.
Bubble history
Economist Dennis Delay was predicting a painful 20 percent correction nine months ago, but he now says certain factors, such as a dramatic spike in mortgage rates, just didn’t happen.
Delay, director of special projects with New Hampshire Workforce Opportunity Council, said a housing market downturn in New Hampshire is now unlikely unless the economy changes dramatically.
If mortgage rates were to increase two percent in a short period of time, energy prices increase even more and businesses stop hiring, there could be more bubble fear, he said.
For now, the average homeowner needn’t worry, although real estate investors are being squeezed out and high prices are keeping some people out of the market, Delay said.
Rather than “bursting bubble,” Delay said New Hampshire’s real estate market is making a graceful adjustment, or ordered retreat.
“It’s looking now less likely like those things are going to happen. The bubbles are much bigger and inflated in other parts of the country. We have a wee bit of a bubble,” Delay said. “Smaller bubbles are less to worry about.”
Delay said he still believes New Hampshire’s homes are overvalued by about 20 percent, but added that statement in and of itself doesn’t mean much when other parts of the country are said to be more than 80 percent overvalued.
Even if houses are overvalued, that doesn’t mean there will be a correction or that prices will go down, he said.
Places like Naples, Fla., Santa Barbara, Calif., Medford, Ore., and Providence, R.I., are as much as 60 to 80 percent overvalued, he said.
Foreclosures
Delay said another indicator — foreclosure rates — also shows a vibrant market in New Hampshire.
New Hampshire has the third-lowest rate of foreclosures per household, just behind Rhode Island and Massachusetts.
In Georgia, there was one foreclosure for every 422 households in January.
During that month, there was one foreclosure for every 42,000 households in New Hampshire, he said.
He said Georgia’s economy is suffering because of the flight of textile jobs to China.
Delay said there is a lot of anecdotal evidence that houses are staying longer on the market in New Hampshire, but the evidence shows that the difference is only a matter of days.
The average number of days on the market for 2005 for the whole state was 131 days, up from 128 in 2001.
In 2002 and 2003, the average number of days on the market was 126 days and 130 days on the market in 2004.
“It doesn’t sound like anything to get terribly excited about,” Delay said.
“The remarkable thing to me is the shocks the economy endured last year. The economy slowed a bit, but it didn’t get knocked on its rear end. We had Katrina taking out much of the Gulf Coast, the war and high energy prices,” he said.
U.S. home prices up
Average U.S. home prices leaped nearly 13 percent from the fourth quarter of 2004 to the same period last year, showing no signs of a slowdown during the period, federal regulators reported last week.
The figures released by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, the agency that oversees the big mortgage-finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, indicated that while housing prices appear now to be cooling, they continued to increase sharply last year.
OFHEO’s chief economist, Patrick Lawler, said that despite slowing in some regions, the rate of increase in home prices last year generally was “extremely strong.”
“Mortgage rates climbed significantly during the second half of last year, but the effect of that increase on (home price rises) so far appears to be limited,” he said in a statement issued with the report.
The agency noted that house prices nationwide continued to grow far more rapidly over the past year than prices of other goods and services included in the Consumer Price Index — 12.95 percent versus 4.3 percent.
Average home prices rose 12.95 percent on an annualized basis from the October-December quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2005, the new report showed. That was up from a revised 12.55 percent increase from the third quarter of 2004 to the same quarter last year.
The fourth-quarter figure is derived from an average of prices in October, November and December. Prices in that October-December period were up 2.86 percent from the third quarter.
In the latest sign that the nation’s housing boom is now easing after five record-breaking years, the Commerce Department reported last week that construction activity in January slowed to the most sluggish gain in seven months.
The OFHEO report, based on data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on repeat sales and refinancings of single-family homes, also found that:
Home prices grew by record levels during the fourth-quarter yearly span in 26 metropolitan areas around the country.
Growth in home prices in Arizona continues to accelerate, with a one-year rate of increase of 39.7 percent in the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale area — the largest of any metropolitan area.
The Mountain states became the area with the fastest-growing home prices, edging out the Pacific region. The slowest growth in prices continues to occur in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin.
Home prices in the East Coast states from Maryland to Florida showed their fastest growth rate since 1975, when the OFHEO survey began. Prices in the region jumped by 17.8 percent from the fourth quarter of 2004 to the same period last year.
http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=Experts+in+NH+say+there+was+no+real+estate+bubble&articleId=af8ee90d-f57b-4625-9da8-1b43d167f2ef
California floppers buying up in SLC? I grew up there. I remember 10 yrs ago, when you could get a condo for under $10K (no, that is not a typo). Most peoples wages don’t support the high priced homes. UT has the highest BK rate in the country. There have not been any starter homes built out in the SE part of SLC for a long time. Just large McMansions. It is terrible to see what was a really nice place get ruined. In what was a gravel pit when I was in high school, is now hundreds of ugly (and I do mean UGLY) close together apartments. Also, they built on these McMansions up on the mountain where mudslides are common. So when these two places go when there is a lot of raing (and it comes along every few yrs), all of those are going to be coming down. I hope that the floppers are left holding that bag.
boulder, colorado, twelve square miles surrounded by reality. last month a california mortgage banker came into town and went for a bike ride around downtown. he liked the area so much, he plunked down $15,000,000 to buy a whole block of buildings (it’s true). on the residential front, we are quickly approaching the $1000 a square foot level for downtown condos. you don’t have to have much imagination to gather where the money is coming from, we’ve been californicated.
Your not alone “Mile High”….Investors in California have been scouring the country in search of safe, higher rates of return…The returns on California investment real estate are so horribly low that investors are going out of state…..
Been there. Done that. We in VT/NH have been slimed by CT/NJ/NYC trash for a while now.
To all the New Englanders, I was wonderng what was going on with Cape RE. We lived there year round and right after 9/11 nothing was moving. We sold the next March about 3 months before things took off.
Looks like those “IMPORTED” granite counter tops are being imported from Hong Kong,China.
While reading this story about a beetle damaging crops here in Florida, an interesting detail of the article got my attention. It states the beetles where discovered in a shipment of granite tops from HONG KONG!
[QUOTE] U.S. Customs and Border Protection agriculture inspectors found a single live beetle March 1 in a shipment of granite counter tops from Hong Kong, said Jennifer Connors, an agency spokeswoman in Miami. [/QUOTE]
So, Forget those luxry upgrades that are bragging of (supposed) Italian granite counter top, they are not even close (not even from Uba Tuba Brazil which is what is being advertised in condos here in Florida) It is just another cheap chinese product form Hong Kong!!!
Here is a 6 month track of single family home listings from Realtor.com in Portland, ME (04101-3), Falmouth, Cumberland and North Yarmouth.
9/6/05 352
9/19/05 394
9/29/05 400
11/3/05 425
12/5/05 406
1/3/06 407
2/2/06 395
2/11/06 352
2/18/06 348
2/24/06 345
3/4/06 343
3/12/06 343
Inventory was 19% higher the first of the year than it is today.
Very little seems to be written ab out real estate up here. But an article appearing in neighboring NH’s Union Leader today suggests a bubble never materialized there: http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=Experts+in+NH+say+there+was+no+real+estate+bubble&articleId=af8ee90d-f57b-4625-9da8-1b43d167f2ef
It’s till to early to make a call on the Spring market, but I’m surprised inventory has not grown more. I am getting a little suspicious of this declining inventory as I seem to notice more For Sale signs as I drive around.
I read that same article today and I’m very skeptical of it. The “experts” basically say that there is no bubble because prices didn’t collapse when they were predicted to. Prices in New England are just not justified by incomes. That, and you can rent the same place for a bit less than owning it.
Did you also notice in the article how they use figures for the entire year of 2005? If a slowdown started at the end of 2005 (and I believe it did) the average gains for the year as a whole could still be good.
I read this article and then I immediately flipped to the real estate section of the paper. Lo and behold, a number of homes were described as “price reduced” or similar. That says a lot more than that entire article did.
I’m as bearish on housing as they come but after what I saw today, even I’m in shock. I’m in the Sarasota/Bradenton area and we decided to take a drive to take a look at which communities we liked so we know where to focus our attention in about a year or so. We drove through no less than 10 communites in the Bradenton/Ellenton area which had newer houses in the $280k-$450k range (most them still had some construction going on). I was shocked by the number of For Sale signs in each one we drove through. It seemed there were streets where half the houses had sale signs. We got to one court where there were 6 houses and no lie, every one was for sale, one right next to the other. We saw many Open Houses where there wasn’t a single car there (except for the Realtor’s 700 series BMW or Mercedes). The sales office parking lots were pretty much vacant in all of the comunities excpet for one. We’re talking a sunny, Sunday afternoon with temps in the mid 80’s. Never in my life have I driven anywhere and saw the huge amount of houses for sale, it is just amazing. We pulled some of the flyers and it seemed people are still pricing way too high. A few of them had the price crossed out and they marked it down $5k-$10k less…..big deal. I see no way at this point this will end in anything but an ugly way if all of these people indeed have to sell their houses. Let the fun begin…..
Another thread illustrates the stickiness of getting all those SnowBelt babyboomers down to FL, AZ and Palm Springs, even the rich ones. When we purchased our last house, it was from a retired couple who had just bought a condo in FL and were itching to move south. This was in the decline of the last Northeast US bubble of the 80’s-90’s. Prices declined slowly then, Perhaps because the primary mortgage of some of these folks was not so large as to force them into a quick sale.
In my old town in CT (where we sold last year), the listings have grown in the last few months so that there is now a 150:1 ratio of town residents to home listings. The lower this ratio goes, the more unstable prices should be (100:1 seems to be a recognized tipping point on the blogs) There havent been signs of rampant RE speculation in my old town in CT, but prices nearly doubled in the past few years. Was it inventory restriction from the empty-nest pre-retiree demographic waiting to recover from their stock losses in 2000-1 by working a few more years? There were many representatives of this demo on my old street (few kids for my kids to play with). All holding on to houses too large for them. Maybe this demographic has decided en masse to move now that RE values have crested. A 150:1 population/listing ratio is mighty low — Orange County CA’s ratio is twice as high!
Im just trying to figure out why stable Northeast housing markets went bubble in the last 5 years without all the flippers and “lifestyle’ hype that is reported in the main bubble areas. Or population growth! If today’s sellers are retirees with equity and modest payments from old mortgages, the prices may not come down quickly in this micro-environment.
Well, in the OC market: I know ocrealestatefinder.com is not the best source BUT there are approximately 5000 new listings since Jan 1st. Ive also seen listings that are still there since early December 2005, thats close to 90 days and counting.
On other notes: I friend of mine was down in San Clemente and said that at an open house, a realtor kept throwing out the ‘gary watts precictions’ and my friend was eating it up. I dont think I’m going to be able to convince him otherwise since he also has a condo in Costa Mesa…Actually no one can convince him otherwise until the market $$’s make significant changes…JF
SJ/Bay Area, CA:
The unit in my building that was “priced to move” went sale pending last week. As of last night, it is no longer sale pending and is back on the market. Another unit had gone up for sale in my building right before the first one “sold.” They were asking $20k more than the first unit and actually relisted it for $10k more as soon as they saw the other unit had sold. Exactly one person showed up today for the open house in unit #2.
In my Valencia, CA neighborhood a realtor knocked on my door day before yesterday to announce breathlessly that they had just sold one of the townhomes across the street, in case we were interested in selling. I told him that we rent. He said that was “even better” since things were slow and “coming down” so they were out trying to drum up business. He asked me to pass his flyer on to anyone I might know who would like to move into the neighborhood. The unit he sold went for about $20,000 less than it would have six months ago.
Oh yeah, things are coming down. And I expect them to come down a lot further.
We were in Northern VA today and at the Pulte Homes development in Warrenton I finally saw one - a sign twirler! I was so happy to have spotted one. A very grumpy skinny teenage young man with long hair and holding a big arrow-shaped sign that said “Pulte” etc. He was standing in the middle of the road.
They were having a “group sales” event. They have a lot of “inventory” homes. I talked on the phone to the saleslady a few days ago. She said they are going to continue to build quickly on their unfinished lots - spec homes.
I asked my husband - you’ve lived here for nearly 40 years, have you *ever* seen a sign twirler for a new homes development? Answer: Uh, No.
Update on California central coast (specifically, Arroyo Grande, just south of San Luis Obispo)…
We went out with a realtor friend of ours today. We had been discussing three moderate (~1450 - ~1600 sq. ft.) houses in AG that we had been (not very strongly) contemplating buying about 3 months ago. All three were on the same street, in a nice neighborhood (kids, young families, retirees), in a good school district, walking distance to a very nice, new park, 10 minutes drive to the sands of Pismo Beach, and were priced in the mid $600Ks.
Well, it turns out one of the three sold for near asking price (I think a bit below). However, after 3 months on the market, the other 2 houses had had NO “reasonable” offers, and had simply been taken off the market.
Also, I’ve been told that the inventory for the area is still rising, but that prices are holding; maybe because people here have the option of just taking their houses off the market and waiting for better market conditions.
That should be “one of the three sold for near asking price”…*sigh*
Sonoma County MLS Listings: 2085
Foreclosures/Pre-Foreclosures = 856
Sonoma Valley
MLS Listings: 230 (GMAC MLS)
Foreclosures/Pre-Foreclosures = 58
(Houses sold week ending 3/13/05 = 14)
Recent Home Sales = 10 (down 28.7%)
Week Ending 3/12/06
also, noticed a house down the street from my mother’s house in napa had an “in escrow” sign on it for the past month… today the escrow sign was gone and an open house sign was up instead.