April 11, 2007

“Buyers Are Less Afraid To Insult Sellers”

The Journal Sentinel reports from Wisconsin. “Milwaukeeans’ love of discounts is on full display in this year’s housing market. ‘With flooding inventory out there, it’s not uncommon to see offers at 10 percent below asking price,’ said Greater Milwaukee Association of Realtors President Dave Schmidt Jr.”

“Double that price cut if the property is in danger of foreclosure, said Robert A. Jansen, of (a foreclosure) listing service.”

“‘We’re seeing many people writing offers at 10 percent to 20 percent below asking price. Buyers are less afraid to insult sellers,’ said Roy Scholtka, broker in West Allis.”

“Buyers are picky. And with 10,246 new listings hitting the market so far this year, they can afford to be, said (broker) Dave Schmidt. ‘Listings are up 13 percent over last year and 50 percent over 2005,’ Schmidt said.”

“‘Everybody I talk to is wondering, ‘Why isn’t my house selling?’ It’s because they’re still thinking they should be getting 5 percent price appreciation a year,’ said Donald J. Moore, president of Houses .com in Elm Grove. ‘You should be happy if you can get ‘04 prices.’”

The Detroit News from Michigan. “The national meltdown of the subprime mortgage market is causing its share of Michigan casualties, as major lenders have closed and smaller ones are struggling with a lower volume of loans.”

“Industry experts say the businesses most affected locally are the small loan writers and brokers who sprang up during the refinancing boom earlier this decade and are now closing in scores.”

“‘This is a major credit event caused by lax standards, unusually aggressive mortgage lenders and apparently some fraud,’ said Dennis Capozza, a professor of finance at University of Michigan.”

“When the housing market is strong like it was five years ago and home prices are rising, people don’t often default on loans because they are able to sell their houses to get out from under a mortgage, Capozza said.”

“But now, he said, ‘we’re moving in the other direction. If you can’t sell your house, you may have to give it back to the lender.’”

The Journal Gazette from Indiana. “Sales of existing homes in Allen County last month dropped nearly 33 percent from March 2006, according to the Fort Wayne Area Association of Realtors.”

“The declining sales partly reflect the fact that this is a buyer’s market, said broker Jerry Morrow. A large number of homes remain on the market, and foreclosures added to the abundant inventory.”

“‘The market’s just saturated with listings,’ he said.”

The Terre Haute News from Indiana. “The Indiana Secretary of State’s office is leveling allegations against a Terre Haute mortgage loan company, a Sullivan title company and several individuals.”

“The Secretary of State’s office alleges that Affordable Lending knowingly processed false loan application documents on behalf of two property buyers. The two buyers bought 23 different properties around Terre Haute in 2005 and 2006, according the complaint.”

“‘Our point is that [borrowers] lied … and we believe that the brokers helped them lie,’ Secretary of State Todd Rokita said.”

“The complaint alleges that the borrowers claimed several different properties as ‘primary’ residences on loan application documents. Primary residences usually receive loans on more favorable terms than investment properties.”

“The alleged fraud was discovered, Rokita said, when the mortgages were sold on the secondary loan market and, ‘by coincidence,’ some of them ended up at the same secondary loan buyer. These buyers noticed some of the mortgages had the same buyers listed as owning more than one ‘primary residence,’ Rokita said.”

“‘That’s what tipped us off,’ he said, adding investigators then ‘dove into the broker’s office and looked through all his files to put all the pieces of the puzzle together.’”

The Kansas City Star. “Chandler McCray, the president of McCray Lumber & Millwork Co. of Overland Park, has had to lay off 50 employees since new-home construction began to drop last year.”

“‘We started feeling the slowdown as far back as last summer,’ McCray said. ‘When it really slowed down or stopped was since the beginning of the year. Our sales are off 40 percent.’”

“With roughly one of every 10 jobs somehow connected to the housing industry, experts warn that the current market slowdown could affect people you ordinarily would not consider.”

“L. Randall Wray, a professor of economics at the University of Missouri-Kansas City, said Americans have weathered ups and downs in the real estate market before, but never at a time when so many were overextended on their credit.”

“Wray said a recent report by The Wall Street Journal online, citing statistics prepared by First American LoanPerformance, indicated that 14.1 percent of all mortgages in Kansas City were subprime loans. Of those subprime borrowers, 14.2 percent were delinquent.”

“‘I don’t think Kansas City will be left alone,’ Wray said. ‘When homes foreclose, this depresses prices in a market where they already are going down. It’s true real estate goes up and down, but we’ve never had a decline in values when the housing market is so indebted.’”




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112 Comments »

Comment by flatffplan
2007-04-11 11:54:49

there’s that number you never hear on the MSM talking heads shows
REIC employment 9%+ in 05
mean is 6%
reversion = recession

 
Comment by HRAsst
2007-04-11 12:06:44

I don’t know if this is the right thread, but I am so depressed today. A friend said I should check out this blog, and I don’t know if I feel better or worse now that I have.

I am an assistant HR mgr and I just got a garnishment notice for an employee for property taxes. $9k, 100% of paycheck. I have never seen a 100% garnishment, even the IRS lets you keep a little bit.

I called the court to make sure and they said that the 100% was right. Then I called the employee to tell them that they will be working for the next 7 mths without a paycheck. I might as well start advertising their position right now.

Like they’re going to be able to keep their house now? Or not starve? Or put gas in their car?

What do y’all think about this?

Comment by knockwurst
2007-04-11 12:14:18

That’s pretty shocking. I’m also amazed that someone who makes $9K in 7 months has a tax bill that big. How can someone who makes less than $18,000 a year owe $9,000 in property taxes?

Comment by HRAsst
2007-04-11 12:21:08

No, they gross more than that, we still take out their taxes and insurance and other deductions. It’s their paycheck we have to send in not their gross amount. I don’t know how much back taxes the 9 is for, it might be for a couple of years, does that sound right?

 
 
Comment by kckid
2007-04-11 12:16:41

Cheer up! You’ll get use to it. We’ve only just begun.

 
Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2007-04-11 12:20:17

A friend has an investor that is a partner in a number of fast food type resturants in the southeastern VA / Hampton Roads region. He said his friend was complaining that he can’t keep workers… basically, people apply, get hired… then about a month later the courts or whatever catch up to the fact that the employee is employed, then come all the garnishments for child support and whatever else. At this point, then the employee has no desire to work and they quit. By taking a new job, they get a few paychecks until the courts catch up or something. Perhaps my timelines are skewed, but I believe him.

 
Comment by bots
2007-04-11 12:21:04

If you really feel that bad, perhaps you should loan your employee the money to cover the property tax. Personally, I say let ‘em crash.

Comment by housing_apocalypse_now
2007-04-11 13:10:21

I was gonna say, if he (generic) refuses to honor the basic obligation of paying property tax, do you really want him around as an employee? You sure he’s not stealing stuff around the office?

Comment by chicagobubbleblog
2007-04-11 13:21:23

Where’s my sticky pad?

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Comment by michael
2007-04-11 12:21:58

i think people should buy things they can afford.

i know that’s a wacky way of life but that’s just how i roll.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-04-11 13:48:45

Gee, Michael, I thought I was the only one…

 
 
Comment by BanteringBear
2007-04-11 12:25:11

These are the people who are forced to work under the table. No other choice.

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-04-11 12:32:22

“These are the people who are forced to work under the table. No other choice.”

Most states have very generous head of household exemptions. I would have my employee look into those. I can’t speak outside of MI and FL, but both allow a very sizable amount to be exempt from wage garnishment.

Comment by HRAsst
2007-04-11 12:44:02

I know he’s divorced, but I think that was a while ago. Older son, late teens I think. The IRS only takes 80% of your paycheck I think, and the few other ones I’ve seen do allow for some take home pay, it was just completely shocking to see 100% and to know that it will be for such a long time.

I guess you guys are saying that I should start looking for someone else. I’m sure y’all are right in the end, it is just a real bummer. I just hope he’s an extreme case, and not the beginning of something. I’ve never seen a court be this tough on somebody, but maybe I’m just too sheltered.

That’s why I came here to look around and talk, thanks for listening.

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Comment by Bad Andy
2007-04-11 12:53:59

“I know he’s divorced, but I think that was a while ago.”

That doesn’t make a difference as far as I know in FL. You are entitled to take home $500 weekly as head of household. If you’re the only one working, or the only one in the household, you get $500 weekly free and clear.

Attorneys have found ways to get that even higher although I’m not certain how…only certain that the court orders show up bringing the exemption higher.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Mikey(2)
2007-04-11 12:27:59

Given that property taxes recur annually, the garnishment makes some sense. In essence, your employee is being forced to sell the house, which is probably a good idea given the amount of taxes relative to salary. The fact is, your employee cannot afford to live in his/her house and is not a good credit risk, especially given her level of employment and probable limited opportunity for substantial salary increases. He/she is going to get garnished no matter where he/she lands, so the only thing to do is to sell the house. A tough lesson to learn, but a good lesson. What would you have the government do, have the other taxpayers pay the taxes for him/her? Hopefully there is equity in the home to cover the taxes when he/she sells, but he/she must sell.

Comment by MGNYC
2007-04-11 12:36:31

my question is why does someone who works in the fast food industry own a home? just a thought

Comment by BanteringBear
2007-04-11 12:41:11

Where did it say fast food employee?

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Comment by MGNYC
2007-04-11 12:51:22

sorry i got the 2 stories confused.
the fast food workers and the guy behind on his taxes my bad. but hey 7 months to pay 9 grand he must not make too much more than the fast food guy

 
Comment by NoVa Sideliner
2007-04-11 12:56:53

I don’t think it did say fast food. He got it mixed up with the other example.

But consider that this garnishee needs 7 months to pay $9k at 100% garnishment. That’s $1285/month take-home, roughly. I don’t know about you, but when I made that kind of money, I didn’t even consider owning property.

Maybe this is the second wage earner in a family?

 
 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2007-04-11 12:59:32

This person may have already lost/sold the house. They would still be liable for the tax bill wouldn’t they? I think it goes by owner of record on Jan 1. Hard to judge this person when they might be trying to recover from a calamity like divorce or such.

 
 
Comment by ft lauderdale
2007-04-11 12:43:47

ok, I thought if you got behind on your taxes they could just sell your house? wouldn’t that happen prior to garnishment? If this can happen in many states that means people who are forclosed upon can be garnished for both the loan and back taxes?

 
Comment by glorgau
2007-04-11 13:25:26

The state of California put a wage garnishment on me because I hadn’t paid taxes on the estimated amount of income that would have been required to pay my mortgage payments. Funny thing was, I hadn’t filed a tax return for that year because I had no income in that state during the relevant tax year.
Damn pirates.

Comment by GPBlank
2007-04-11 13:57:27

Wouldn’t this apply to half of California?

 
 
Comment by diogenes (Tampa)
2007-04-11 14:18:31

Sounds like TOTAL BULLSH#T to me.
Governments confiscate properties for back taxes and sell them at auction. They do not garnish wages.
Go away TROLL.

-Diogenes.

Comment by HRAsst
2007-04-11 14:55:44

Call 703-222-8234 and ask them if they do that. I came here for help, not to be called a liar.

 
Comment by jerry from richardson
2007-04-11 15:41:45

You are wrong. They can and do garnish wages for property taxes. It depends on the laws and what the locality wants to do. Just do a google search on it

 
 
Comment by Eudemon
2007-04-11 17:32:08

This is why those in human resources should always - always - ALWAYS - run a credit check on potential hires. If I was in HR, I’d never hire anyone with a credit score less than 700 (725 if they have mortgage payments).

IMO, running credit checks is something HR pros must do in this day and age. Otherwise, you are stuck holding the bag and doling out the bad news, as you have done already.

Comment by Peter T
2007-04-11 19:26:24

A threshhold of 700 wouldn’t you leave with so many eligible candidates for your positions. HR has to find good workers not to educate people about finances. A closer look on the credit report, instead of just looking on the score, seems wise though.

 
Comment by yogurt
2007-04-12 02:02:43

So you think a private business (a credit rating agency) should be allowed to give you a number that determines whether you can get a job or not? You are a creditor of your employer, not the other way around.

Sounds like something out of “The Prisoner”.

Comment by Eudemon
2007-04-12 06:25:40

Yes, that’s exactly what I think.

If someone can’t handle their own finances, why should any employer think they’d make a good employee? A low credit score often reveals the following about potential employees: a lack of forethought and planning, impulsiveness, a lack of concern about the efficient use of resources, and potential ignorance about money issues in general. It also can indicate drug use or other illegal activities, tax liens and other nefarious behaviors.

The original poster in this thread asked for ideas and opinions. These are mine.

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Comment by Bad Andy
2007-04-11 12:09:47

“Industry experts say the businesses most affected locally are the small loan writers and brokers who sprang up during the refinancing boom earlier this decade and are now closing in scores.”

It’s more than just the tighter standards causing the mess in Michigan. The economy has driven jobs and families out of the state. That’s driven property values down as people begin to compete with foreclosures to sell their own house.

Fewer jobs and fewer families = no one to buy properties. No one to buy properties means lower values. Lower values mean no cash out refinances. No refinances mean no loans to keep brokers in business. It’s a big compounding mess.

Comment by seattle price drop
2007-04-11 19:04:42

Hopefully the cities won’t compound the problem by driving up property taxes to try to recoup losses.

I believe that’s what a lot of NY did when people started leaving those upstate towns. All it did was scare folks out faster and faster. What a mess. Just led to more abandoned buildings.

 
 
Comment by Mark
2007-04-11 12:19:19

[the zombies are forcing through the boarded up windows]
Harry: This is definitely not going to work.

——————————————————————————–
Harry: You idiots! You lame brains! You’re gonna die up here. You’re gonna die.

——————————————————————————–
[first lines]
Johnnie: They’re coming to get you, Barbara!

——————————————————————————–
Tom: They’re dead, but they’re comin’ right for us!

——————————————————————————–
Harry: Bunch of yoyos!

——————————————————————————–
Sheriff McClelland: Yeah, they’re dead. They’re all messed up.

 
Comment by Silversurfer
2007-04-11 12:19:39

I just that Barney Frank wants to pass a law that makes mortgage backed bond holders liable for predatory lending practices.

I wonder if that will put the kibosh on the good work being done by Sen. Hairplugs. (Schumer?).

 
Comment by zeropointzero
2007-04-11 12:21:02

Hang on, help is on the way …..

WASHINGTON (AP) - Senator Schumer, Democrat of New York, said Wednesday that the federal government should quickly send an infusion of money - potentially in the hundreds of millions of dollars - to help homeowners with high-interest rate mortgages avoid foreclosure.

Mr. Schumer chairs the Joint Economic Committee, which issued a report Wednesday detailing the economic impact from the troubled market for loans given to homeowners with shaky credit.

With 1.8 million adjustable rate mortgages resetting to higher rates this year and next, foreclosures are sure to continue rising, the report said.

Areas expected to be hardest hit include Atlanta, Indianapolis, Denver, Dallas and Detroit. In that city, one of every 21 mortgages foreclosed last year, according to the report, which used statistics from RealtyTrac’s foreclosure database.

“We’d like to do something very quickly,” Mr. Schumer said. “These statistics are new and they’re startling. ”

http://www.nysun.com/article/52270

Comment by spike66
2007-04-11 12:30:26

“These statistics are new and they’re startling. ”

New to you, Chuck, but not to the posters on this blog. Too bad Ben Jones doesn’t chair the Joint Economic Committee…he was paying attention to housing years ago. With housing, Helocs, and consumer spending basically the economy, where has this guy been for the last few years?

 
Comment by zeropointzero
2007-04-11 12:32:20

Here is link to referenced report — in PDF format. State rankings are on page 6.

http://jec.senate.gov/Documents/Reports/subprime11apr2007.pdf

The government is now on the case - so I guess we can mark this whole “housing bubble” mess as officially fixed, right? Whew - that’s a load off my mind.

Comment by WT Economist
2007-04-11 12:47:54

Here is the MSM freakout article on MSNBC, combining Schumer’s proposal with the NAR forecast.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18059004/

A federal bailout would be one more opportunity for fraud. Let’s not screw the young again. Rather than more federal debt how about cutting Medicare to pay for this Chuckie?

Comment by Silversurfer
2007-04-11 12:54:39

It’s “only” hundreds of millions tho’, so how much will that help really?

And it looks like it may be combined with increased liability for the holders of mortgage debt, so I’d guess that one would cancel out the other.

I doubt anything could be done in time to ’save’ the market anyway, at which point they’ll forget about it.

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Comment by seattle price drop
2007-04-11 19:49:14

Whoah, that is one huge PDF. Guess the problem’s a little bigger than anyone suspected!

Seriously, it took 27 min. to download! 6,800 KB. Really slow computer here. Well worth it though, now I can peruse at my leisure.
Thankyou zeropointzero.
WA. is way higher than I would have thought: # 18. Looks like our day in the national news will come afterall…

Who woulda thunk it? According to our newspapers, we’re so dang smart here, thought more of us would have read the loan docs before signing.

 
 
Comment by santacruzsux
2007-04-11 12:56:20

So what are you gonna do?
Are you going to loan them the money Mr. Schumer?
Are you going to let them do a cash out with a new loan this time or is that verboten?
Are you going to declare a mortgage payment amnesty?

Will you create another GSE to lend money to distressed loan-owners? Let’s call it Bubba Mac to imply how just big and stupid such a corp. would have to be.

Listen Mr. Schumer, this patient is dying and it’s best to just pull the plug.

 
Comment by oxide
2007-04-11 13:13:29

I don’t see Schumer getting any of this through conference committee. Barney Frank is a tough customer.

I’ll repeat that the only bailout I’d agree with is no-recourse jingle mail (with exceptions for divorce/job loss etc). Let the FB’s go back to renting, which is where they should have stayed in the first place.

 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-04-11 13:43:46

I for one will immediately apply for a “toxic” loan if looks like this bill is going to pass. It would be stupid to pass up free money. After all, it was my money until the gubmint took it. Get the money and then pay off the loan.

BTW, we currently own our house free and clear.

 
Comment by jerry from richardson
2007-04-11 15:51:49

You must have seen that on Foxnews while drinking your Kool-Aid. It’s a damn lie

 
Comment by Eudemon
2007-04-11 17:42:34

Anyone here from Indy? I’ve heard bits and pieces of the all-out chicanery that’s gone down in Indianapolis for the past two years or so. For lack of a better word, I am stunned. Floored.

It makes events in the rest of the country look like child’s play.

Ben Jones- any news out of Indy? It’s a hell of a case study.

 
Comment by seattle price drop
2007-04-11 19:16:29

“These statistics are new and they’re astounding”. Sen. Schumer.

Spoken like a true “been asleep at the wheel for the past several years now” kinda guy.

Wait til he gets a load of what’s coming down the pike. Jerk. The disconnect with thses politicians is what’s really astounding. I’m sure they’ve been doing a great job representing their districts if they couldn’t even connect the dots that *possibly* something was amiss with the high housing prices of the past several years. Did they really believe everyone in their state was pulling 200K/yr incomes? Just HOW did they suppose people were able to “buy” these homes?

These guys/gals are not fit for office. They are either too stupid or they’re liars.

Just spoke to yet another person who’s incensed at bailout talk. And yep, it’s the neighbors who lost their home to an exploding ARM a couple years back. Spread the word abouut the bailout. NOBODY is for this.

 
 
Comment by WaitingInOC
2007-04-11 12:22:52

“You should be happy if you can get ‘04 prices.”

So all of the gains from ‘05 and ‘06 are gone, and people should be happy if they can even get ‘04 prices. So, we’re basically at ‘03-’04 pricing in Wisconsin (with more declines to come)? Coming soon to many more markets (just how soon depends on the particular market). How long until we see people saying we’re at ‘03 or ‘02 pricing?

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-04-11 13:00:20

“How long until we see people saying we’re at ‘03 or ‘02 pricing? ”

Depends on the market. In S. FL the market was pretty normal until the end of ‘02 or first part of ‘03. Once we reach those levels, things should improve. Unfortunately, we’re looking at mid ‘05 prices right now for the most part. Nowhere near where we need to be. If prices continue at the current rate of decline it could be 18 months or longer before we hit the late ‘02 numbers.

Comment by rnrkennedy
2007-04-11 14:33:42

Reversion to the mean typically overshoots on the downside… I’m looking for ‘98 to ‘99 prices before this mess starts improving.

 
 
Comment by GPBlank
2007-04-11 14:02:16

We’re there in Michigan, in fact we are at mid to late 90’s pricing depending on the location.

Comment by seattle price drop
2007-04-11 19:56:45

Amazing. How long did it take to go from present back to 90’s pricing?

 
 
 
Comment by turnoutthelights
2007-04-11 12:23:00

“‘We started feeling the slowdown as far back as last summer,’ McCray said. ‘When it really slowed down or stopped was since the beginning of the year. Our sales are off 40 percent.’”

“With roughly one of every 10 jobs somehow connected to the housing industry, experts warn that the current market slowdown could affect people you ordinarily would not consider.”

These ’slowdown’ concerns are national. Friend of mine is a long-time roofer/general cont. and he says the home repair/home building business is ‘falling through the floorboards’ (his words, last night). He says layed-off workers and recon guys are spreading out, looking for any work they can find for cash. The jobs he gets are smaller and cheaper - but the pain is spreading. He may just make it - as he chopped overhead last year.

Comment by Mystry62
2007-04-11 13:10:37

My mom is an accountant / small business consultant. She has several clients with businesses that are either directly or indirectly related to the housing industry. One does gutter work and has been a 7 figure company for the past several years. He was up to 50 employees at one point and is now down to 12 with 4 more people being laid off next week. Consequently, my mom used to visit this guy’s office 2 - 3 times a week and has now been cut back to once a week. In addition to this client cutting back on her schedule, she has had $4K worth of work cancel over the past 2 weeks. My mom told me last night that even when the economy takes a downturn, it doesn’t usually affect her business b/c her services are needed whether or not a business is doing well. She says this is the first time she has ever felt a huge effect on her business like this. I’m afraid that the housing down turn will wind up affecting more jobs than people realize.

Comment by turnoutthelights
2007-04-11 13:19:29

Boy, a year ago it was the concrete guys that were starting to hurt. Now we’re up to gutters, one of the middle contractors at a job site. The downturn is really eating through the work load, and if my local area is any way normal there just isn’t anything coming down the pike to replace it.
Maybe your mom should shift to foreclosure work. Banks will need a ton of contractor savvy accountants.

Comment by Mystry62
2007-04-11 13:51:34

Actually right now she is starting to shift he business to do more seminars geared towards business owners who are “financial dummies”. She said you would be surprised at how many small business owners don’t even bother to balance their company checkbook or don’t know anything about P&L sheets, etc. If business owners (who most people assume are a little more financially savvy than your average Joe Blow) are like this, it’s no wonder we’re in the real estate mess that we’re in now.

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-04-11 13:52:35

Hmmm… Contractor-savvy accountants. What a good thread. Anyone else have any ideas on where the opportunities might be in this downturn?

For example, I’m thinking of bankruptcy attorneys. They might need the goods and services that some of us HBB-ers sell.

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Comment by Brian in Chicago
2007-04-11 14:56:03

Anyone else have any ideas on where the opportunities might be in this downturn?

I got an offer last week in a financial research company. They’ve called me twice to see how quickly I can accept and start working.

 
Comment by Chad
2007-04-12 11:08:37

Oh Brian, too bad I won’t move to C, that’s what I do!

I think there will be a wave of a need for repo people. Better start working out, or carrying a gun - or both.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by dan
2007-04-11 12:23:02

“Reversal of Fortune? Rent vs. Buy Revisited”

Over the next five years, which is about the average amount of time recent buyers have remained in their homes, prices in the Los Angeles area would have to rise more than 5 percent a year for a typical buyer there to do better than a renter. The same is true in Phoenix, Las Vegas, the New York region, Northern California and South Florida. In the Boston and Washington areas, the break-even point is about 4 percent.

“House prices have to fall more before housing becomes a clear buy again,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com, a research company that helped conduct the analysis. “These markets aren’t as overvalued as they were a year ago or two years ago, but they’re still unfriendly. And that’s one of the reasons the market is still soft — people realize it’s not a bargain.”

http://www.gothamist.com/2007/04/11/reversal_of_for_1.php

Comment by housing_apocalypse_now
2007-04-11 13:12:29

I’ll bet that ignores property taxes, insurance and maintenance, which renters implicitly pay in rent but “owners” must pay on top of their mortgage.

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-04-11 13:29:52

“I’ll bet that ignores property taxes, insurance and maintenance, which renters implicitly pay in rent but “owners” must pay on top of their mortgage.”

That’s why when comparing you need to see what P&I plus T&I. In my case, rent was about $1900 for a comparable house. P&I/T&I were $1,750 when we bought in December. That’s why we decided to get off the fence and buy. Our seller was priced $50K below anything else in the neighborhood and still willing to deal. A year of paying 2 mortgages will do that.

Comment by HARM
2007-04-11 13:50:59

Where the heck do you liv –Fargo, S.D.? In my neck of the woods (CA), it’s IMPOSSIBLE to buy a house with a conventional (no neg-ams/IOs/teasers) amortizing mortgage and get monthly PITI anywhere CLOSE to monthly rent for an equivalent house. Buying anywhere now gives you a monthly nut at least double monthly rents.

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Comment by climber
2007-04-11 14:32:58

I’m living in Northern Colorado, my PITI is not much more than rent for a similar sized house. I have a 15 year mortgage and over half the payment is now principal. It’s hard to justify the costs to sell and rent. Especially when I see all the bank troubles coming. Where do you park your cash if you sell? Most banks are just dumping your money back into real estate - and you’re not living in it.

 
Comment by HARM
2007-04-11 14:58:19

I have a 15 year mortgage and over half the payment is now principal

Which means you bought some time ago (when price/cost basis was much lower). I can completely understand why you would not want to sell your primary residence now, as your monhtly costs are comparable to rents and you still need a place to live. But this is not the same thing as saying it’s a good time to buy right now.

Give me a time machine to go back and buy at your lower cost basis, and, yes, buying right now makes sense.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Nathan
2007-04-11 12:23:04

Who in the world submits an offer that is only 10% less than the asking price? Why even make an offer becasue if you willing to pay that much you are way over paying for the property. Buyers should be starting with an offer 30% below the asking price if the property is priced with the comps.
10% is a joke and if you are worried about insulting the seller you have no business buying the house to begin with in my opinion.

Comment by mojo
2007-04-11 12:49:04

How about the new home builders? Can you walk in there and verbally offer to buy one of their homes for 20% off? Does the “salesman” in the model home even have the authority to consider such an offer?

Comment by shadash
2007-04-11 13:43:48

If they’re hungry enough the builder will find a way to make it work. Just watch out that they don’t try to screw you in other ways.

 
 
Comment by Peter T
2007-04-11 13:53:26

Not all places have seen an apprecition as the bubble lands (CA, FL etc.). Maybe 10% below wishing price is already a step back to 2002, depending on how much the wishing price already takes into account the housing bust.

 
 
Comment by BanteringBear
2007-04-11 12:26:50

OT- Here we go, the stock market takes a major digger, only to start rallying late in the day-on bad news of course. We’ll see if it lasts.

Comment by turnoutthelights
2007-04-11 12:31:37

I don’t know if the market ever really bought into the ‘lowering interest rates’ beliefs being thrown up. If so, then the 100 point drop was overdone, and it’ll recover at half of that. Next weeks Core CPI, now that’s where the action is.

 
Comment by Giacomo
2007-04-11 12:53:59

In any case, the market is obviously feeling vulnerable. Today, another significant drop, for which there will be a variety of explanations, none of which will seem particularly plausible.
Wasn’t it just yesterday we had to listen to the celebrations about the “record” number of positive days?

Comment by turnoutthelights
2007-04-11 13:11:18

There are times when the market looks for any reason to go up. Seems that we are entering that nasty place in the middle - maybe up, maybe down. Vunerable is a good turn though. A few fairly bad reports and …..

 
 
Comment by Mikey(2)
2007-04-11 12:55:14

I don’t get it. Today, oil prices are up, everybody gets out. Tomorrow oil prices are going down, everybody’s back in. Everything is so short term, I don’t see how any of this has to do with how well/poorly the companies are doing. I see where people can make money by following the short-term trends, I just don’t see how it’s tied into true corporate performance. Isn’t that what the market is supposed to be about? Seems like there are parallels to the housing market here.

Comment by ex-WA
2007-04-11 13:32:05

Absolutely - in the short term, it’s a purely zero sum game, and with all the behind-the-scenes manipulation the average person has a less than even chance of being one of the winners. I’ve read that the majority of the price and volume moves on any given day are due to program and hedge fund trading, ie “gaming”. Pretty ridiculous game for any rational person to “invest” in.

IMHO the differences between housing and stock markets outweigh the similaries, although the manias that happen are produced by the same psychological factors (ie herd idiocy) in both.

 
 
 
Comment by sam
2007-04-11 12:33:49

How is bay area market? i just spoke to a friend in CA, he lives in tracy. he is saying that there people still buying 1300sqft , 30 years old houses for $900k in bay area.

Comment by Mark
2007-04-11 12:38:08

Silicon Valley is still a joke—multiple bids in Santa Clara, Sunnyvale and Mountain View not uncommon—can’t get a decent place for less than 700-800K. Tracy should be less, though, it’s really an outlying area.

Comment by lunarpark
2007-04-11 14:14:26

http://www.mv-voice.com/story.php?story_id=2129

Ah yes, Mountain View, home of TCE toxic waste.

 
 
Comment by turnoutthelights
2007-04-11 12:40:40

Imagine a place so secure in its self-belief of superiority that a 1300sq.ft., 900K house makes sense. While most areas say that ‘everyone wants to live here’, in the BA it is not just a belief, it is unassailable fact. They have run up to heights unimagined, and a crash would be the stuff of legends.

Comment by HARM
2007-04-11 13:56:22

I take it you’re being tongue-in-cheek here?

“Everyone” wants to live in a place that: (a) is completely unaffordable to working-class, middle-class, and even some upper-middle class, (b) suffers from crumbling infrastructure, bad schools and government constantly in the red, & (c) being overrun with low-wage, unskilled, non-English speaking “diversity”.

Comment by Mark
2007-04-11 14:19:01

I agree–it boggles the mind—it really sucks here, I’ve been here 18 years and I’m GONE baby!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by turnoutthelights
2007-04-11 15:20:41

Very tongue in cheek. Never really understood the allure of Frisco. But those that believe live on a diet of Kool-Aid.

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Comment by lunarpark
2007-04-11 13:44:58

Inventory is surging right now in Santa Clara County. The last few days have been very active.

YOY:
4/11/2006 3903
4/11/2007 4780

It should get interesting soon.

 
 
Comment by Renterfornow
2007-04-11 12:45:02

Insult???

Lucky to get a bid at all.

 
Comment by Renterfornow
2007-04-11 12:46:24

10 to 20% below asking???

How ’bout 4-50% off asking? Get use to it drones.

Zahn Now’ CNN

Is the American dream now an American nightmare? Watch a special series: “Debtor Nation,” tonight, 8 ET.

The debt zombies are starting to realize they are not wealthy but indebted servants!

LOL!

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-04-11 13:21:59

I heard this teaser at the gym on Monday evening. I was tempted to shout something rude at the TV, but there were other people in the room…

 
 
Comment by sam
2007-04-11 12:48:33

he is saying everyone goes for interest only loans in BA, thats the only way they can buy a car.

 
Comment by WT Economist
2007-04-11 12:49:18

Man the Midwest is getting hammered. Looks like lots of areas will look like the Bronx in the 1970s. Sell the stock of fire and casualty insurance companies!

Comment by BubbleWatcher
2007-04-11 18:34:36

> Sell the stock of fire and casualty insurance companies!

Well, not necessarily. A good insurance company (from a shareholder’s standpoint) never rushes to pay the money. I am sure we will see quite a few lengthy and very educating investigations over next few years…

 
 
Comment by Lisa
2007-04-11 12:58:33

“‘When homes foreclose, this depresses prices in a market where they already are going down. It’s true real estate goes up and down, but we’ve never had a decline in values when the housing market is so indebted.’”

Finally, someone quoted in the MSM says what everyone on this blog knows. This meltdown will be much worse this time around.

Debt does not equal wealth. It’s not different this time.

 
Comment by OB_Tom
2007-04-11 13:13:10

This story is just too wild:
http://tinyurl.com/2csuyb
“Housing Boom Tied To Sham Mortgages
ATLANTA — The man was one slick fraud artist.
Phillip Hill lured people to fancy cocktail parties in a $1.9 million mansion. He asked to use their names and credit histories in real estate deals, promising to make them rich. Most got $10,000 checks on the spot for signing up.
By the time the scam unraveled, the credit of those participants had been ruined, hundreds of upscale properties had fallen into foreclosure and real estate prices had plummeted in some of this city’s most exclusive neighborhoods. Hill is about to go to federal prison.”
Morgage fraud numbers:
http://tinyurl.com/yp8m4o
“In some neighborhoods, mortgage fraud became so extensive that it drove up overall home prices. That is what happened in Atlanta. Hill, 50, was convicted last month in what authorities call one of the biggest mortgage-fraud cases in U.S. history. It involved 400 fraudulent loan applications; nearly $100 million in mortgages; and 120 closing attorneys, appraisers, mortgage brokers and others who prosecutors say were in on the scam.

Federal prosecutors say this kind of fraud is hardly unique to Atlanta — the lax lending standards that Hill exploited have existed throughout the country in recent years.

In Broomfield, Colo., Gerald Small pocketed $21.5 million and bought two jets after he got bogus home loans using personal information from people who responded to a help-wanted ad; he was convicted. In Kansas City last year, Brent Michael Barber was sentenced to 12 years in prison for paying residents of a low-income neighborhood $2,000 each to use their names in 300 fraudulent loan applications. In Jacksonville, mortgage broker J.R. Parker and closing attorney Dale Beardsley were convicted in 2005 for a fraud scheme in which they netted $14 million in cash, six luxury cars and two $1 million homes.”

Comment by mrincomestream
2007-04-11 14:29:00

Yea, I know a few folks holding the bag in Atlanta. Last I heard their foreclosure listing sheets were as thick as phonebooks. Tons of them available. A guy I was speaking too was telling me he owned one there and it appraised for 400k but he could only get a loan for 150k because of all the fraud in the zipcode of the property. Funny stuff.

 
Comment by implosion
2007-04-11 17:07:51

If you’re going to do it, do it big - no point in doing it half-assed.

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2007-04-11 13:24:02

Buyers are less afraid to insult sellers,’ said Roy Scholtka, broker in West Allis.”

I keep seeing this “insult sellers” BS. They have been insulting me for years now with these insane prices. Screw um, perhaps by next year I’ll come up with a few huge insults!!

Comment by mikey
2007-04-11 13:49:24

West Allis, Wisconsin is an old blue colar community from Milwaukee’s manufacturing PAST that suffered through the “Rust Bucket” days.

While some are nice, many of these homes are very old and had the equity and life milked and stripped out of them any times OVER.

I can assure you Roy old Boy, that the good people and housedebters of West Allis have absolutely NO RESERVATIONS about INSULTING ANYBODY with their asking, drean and wish prices.

 
Comment by shadash
2007-04-11 13:49:39

Don’t be afraid to “insult” a seller. The more insults they get the more they sh!t their pants.

 
Comment by mikey
2007-04-11 13:49:39

West Allis, Wisconsin is an old blue colar community from Milwaukee’s manufacturing PAST that suffered through the “Rust Bucket” days.

While some are nice, many of these homes are very old and had the equity and life milked and stripped out of them any times OVER.

I can assure you Roy old Boy, that the good people and housedebters of West Allis have absolutely NO RESERVATIONS about INSULTING ANYBODY with their asking, dream and wish prices.

Comment by mikey
2007-04-11 13:51:55

Wow…a 2fr…sorry about that

 
 
Comment by santacruzsux
2007-04-11 13:50:25

Really, how is an extremely low offer construed as being insulting? I mean, it’s not like these people have to sell. It’s not like the buyers are going to open houses and calling the seller’s children ugly!

Comment by mikey
2007-04-11 13:55:52

That wasn’t an UGLY monkey…It was their kid ?…Oooops

Where’s the popcorn ?

 
 
Comment by VaBeyatch in Virginia Beach
2007-04-11 13:53:40

Heh, they haven’t seen my craigslist replies… or (funny to me) graphical posts taunting the sellers, informing the drooling masses.

For a while I’d repost other people’s listings with somewhat evil comments… subletting closets to illegals for extra income opportunity, dumping on the bubbleriffic upgrades, etc. The worst part is people would reply, thinking it was serious and a good deal. You just shake your head in disbelief. Granted, it could have been a reverse troll, but I’m fairly confident they weren’t.

I will give credit that no one offered to buy the unabomber shack, listed in Virginia Beach @ $220K.

 
Comment by Mikey(2)
2007-04-11 13:59:27

Late last year I was a seller for a deceased relative’s home; the market was changing at that point. I was disappointed (not insulted) by the first low offer; the second and third low offers were not as insulting - just a reality check.

 
Comment by mjh
2007-04-11 20:48:30

So this leads to the question of what’s worse, a lowball offer or no offer at all? I guess we should choose the latter, you know, to keep from insulting them.

 
 
Comment by Curt
2007-04-11 13:37:00

I heard the other day that somewhere you could buy a house for the price of a car. Is this it??

http://tinyurl.com/yoho99

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-04-11 13:45:42

Yeah, but you can’t drive your house.

 
Comment by lefantome
2007-04-11 13:54:40

Never a need to worry about how the house is oriented on the lot.

 
 
Comment by Mark
2007-04-11 13:56:29

what time, channel “Debtor Nation”?

 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-04-11 13:59:26

‘It’s true real estate goes up and down, but we’ve never had a decline in values when the housing market is so indebted.’

Corollary: We’ve never had a decline that was as likely to snowball, thanks to the effect of too many deeply-underwater owners who will prove unable to hang on through the bust.

 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-04-11 14:00:47

“Milwaukeeans’ love of discounts is on full display in this year’s housing market.”

Sell now, or get lowballed forever.

Comment by mikey
2007-04-11 14:22:22

GS

Sell now, or get lowballed forever ?

Today it’s Sell now, or get snowballed forever with the Spring Snow Storm.

It was 81 degrees a week or so ago. I always wondered why some people left their Xmas lights up year round in the midwest ha ha ha

 
 
Comment by Mark
2007-04-11 14:21:27

I’d love to insult a seller with an 40% off asking d**kslap right between the eyes.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-11 14:59:40

In a world of dickerers, our country has no clue how to bargain, correctly…

I found Asians to be the best negotiators of all the groups of people i’ve ever encountered~

 
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