A Continuation Of The Correction
It’s Friday desk clearing time. “Last week, a sign high over Interstate 75 reported for the first time there were more than 100,000 homes for sale in metro Atlanta. ‘I’ve been selling real estate in Henry County 20 years and this is the largest inventory I’ve ever seen,’ said associate broker Dottie Wise.”
“Tom Elder plans to move out of the Hasty Acres subdivision of Marietta and buy a new house after getting married. He said houses in his neighborhood once stayed on the market for weeks but now may linger for months. ‘I know for a plain fact that the only way they are going to sell is they drop their price,’ he said. ‘I know we will not get the money we would have a year or two ago.’”
“‘The guy behind me is trying to sell his house and move to Tampa, and he can’t even get any bites,’ he said.”
“Bill Meierhoff describes the current Duluth condominium market as ‘horse s–t,’ albeit with a chuckle.”
“The owner of Waterfront Plaza in Duluth’s Canal Park is developing condos in the upper floors of the former hardware warehouse. He plans a total of 60 units, but so far has sold only seven. He blames a national condo market slump on interests rates.”
“So far in 2007, a total of 14,185 homes have been recorded sold, in contrast to 17,980 for 2006 year to date and 27,325 sales for 2005 year to date.”
“‘The current market lacks the market frenzy to own and/or invest at almost any price and reasoning,’ said Jay Butler, at Arizona State University. ‘The general expectation is that the 2007 resale housing market should be a good year…assuming that there are no negative geopolitical events and that the sub-prime problem remains fairly contained.’”
“Tighter lending standards will also impact demand and put pressure on home prices, said Eric Belsky, executive director at Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies.”
“‘Spring housing is going to be off dramatically from the highs of 2005 due to weak pricing and tighter credit,’ Belsky said. ‘It is not going to be the hoped for recovery, it’s going to be a continuation of the correction.’”
“Bravo, to all of you for writing in, and may I just say that perhaps the politicians should be reading this, because if they think a government bailout would be popular, they’d better think again. We got about 57 emails in the hour after I did the bailout piece on TV, and I can’t find even one post that supports a bailout.”
“‘No Bailouts. The idea is insane! People must be allowed to feel the consequences of their decisions. They are house gamblers just like Las Vegas gamblers. They lost, so be it,’ says John in Wisconsin.”
“Bill Gross, who manages the PIMCO bond fund, wrote in April that easy credit fueled a ‘free-for-all’ in people buying homes. ‘They bought a house, began living the American dream by making money with someone else’s money, and expected to live happily ever after,’ Gross wrote. ‘Well, not so fast, at least for some of them, it seems.’”
“If Gross is correct, and the Fed acts accordingly, there may be a drop in housing prices that’s steady, and manageable for the public. I’d like to think that would happen. But the history of bubbles, no, the history of America, suggests that when a cycle ends, the only thing left to do is to pay for the excess.”
“‘Never in American history has there been a time where you could get a mortgage for no money down,’ said investment industry icon Jim Rogers. ‘You just don’t clean out a speculative bubble in six months.’”
“In a stark reversal, it’s now clear that people who chose renting over buying in the last two years made the right move. In much of the country, including large parts of the Northeast, California, Florida and the Southwest, recent home buyers have faced higher monthly costs than renters and have lost money on their investment in the meantime.”
“It’s almost as if they have thrown money away, an insult once reserved for renters.”
“It’s nice to see the New York Times step up and give the National Association of Realtors, and its head optimist, David Lereah, a poke it so richly deserves.”
“It’s still a bit of New York Times naivete: ‘Most striking, perhaps, is the fact that prices may not yet have fallen far enough for buying to look better than renting today.’ How is that striking? Home prices have gone through an unprecedented bubble. Rents have not.”
“One more thing. How about dropping the whole ‘American Dream’ cliche? There’s nothing inherently better about owning. And while we’re on the topic of ‘owning,’ maybe we should all do more to point out that homeowners buying with zilch down aren’t ‘owning’ at all. They’re simply renting from the bank.”
“I’ve rented and owned, and it comes down to this. A home is a place to hang your hat. Pay too much for the peg, and you’re risking the real American Dream: the pursuit of happiness.”
A great week! My thanks to those who support this blog and keep it going. Please check back this weekend for news, your market observations and topics.
From the metro Atlanta article -
“The trend is a sign that builders were ahead of Atlanta’s growth curve, but not necessarily a sign of a housing downturn, according to Jeff Humphreys, director of economic forecasting at UGA….
“Supply kind of got ahead of demand,” he said, adding that if population projections hold up, the inventory won’t last long.
“Builders are pulling back,” he said. “I think, actually, …this is quite an opportunity — the last chance to pick up quite a bit of value.”
I wonder if Jeff moonlights as a Realtor®. OK so this is the “last chance” to get a deal, what comes next? I’m thinking it’s something like…”Continued appreciation until only sixty or so US residents can afford to buy their own house.”
some of these headlines sound like they are coming out of San Diego. but then again, I am sure the weather in Atlanta is much nicer than San Diego.
I think that the Atlanta area is prospering from the relocations of many whose housing in their old states have gone from insane to ridiculous. Atlanta builders will continue to prosper due to the value of owning a quality built home in multiple price ranges. It may not be the last chance to own a home with builder incentives but learn from such states as Florida and New York and even cities like Sandy Spring and Buckhead..when land becomes scarce in a city with demand the prices will go up and your dollars will buy you less home. Now is the right time to make a wise decision when buying a home. Go with what you can afford and what your downpayment will get you. If you can’t afford a downpayment then you can’t afford a home. Do what your parents did..rent smaller and save more.
“Atlanta builders will continue to prosper due to the value of owning a quality built home in multiple price ranges.”
Ahhh, I see. It is different in Atlanta. Hope you’re not putting your money where your mouth is.
Wow Michelle -
You sound like a thinly veiled realtor. Living in Atlanta, in the so called area with scarce land, I can tell you that homes are sitting on the market. The “quality” built homes in Atlanta are all made of pressed wood, including those million dollar homes in Buckhead and Sandy Springs. Homes in Florida are better built since Hurrican Andrew due to a change in the building codes there. The market in Atlanta is fraught with fraud and is one of the highest subprime mortgage markets over the past few years which affects ALL neighborhoods in Atlanta.
Go to CNN and vote now!
http://money.cnn.com/POLLSERVER/results/31275.html
2007 is going to suck.
-Rent
This is the right link
Thank you. I voted. Hopefully congress will note the 92% against.
negative consequences of a bail-out.
1) This may only re-inflate home prices, and keep housing unaffordable for many Americans.
If prices do not go down, then people like myself will be priced out of a home for a long time. Right now the median home price is 10x the median salary in LA County, and I would imagine in NYC it is at a similar multiple. Even with 20% down it is next to impossible to own with a standard 30 yr fixed with full documentation.
2) It sends the wrong message that it’s OK to make financial mistakes, as someone is always there for you. I tought what makes this country great is you are free to make, and –should- learn from mistakes.
3) By giving people these subsidized loans we are no better than the lenders that originated them. It just perpetuates the cycle.
4)It is my understanding that borrowers and lenders may have misrepresented some items on a loan application to get a loan.
Substitute “house” for “job” in the following:
If I misrepresent information (e.g. education experience) to get a (job), and someone finds out about it, should I get a “bail-out” just because it is hard for me to get a (job), and someone told me that it is O.K. Should I keep my (job)?
You forgot the worse reason:
5) Buoying a drowning homeowner only makes them hold an asset that is going down in value. You are just making their eventual loss even greater. They need to get out NOW and let the lender take the hit on the plummeting house value.
Must view (from the CNN link):
‘Comedian Kathleen Madigan has a reality check for subprime lenders hoping to get bailed out by the government.’
“You a moron — you’ve got to suck it up.”
“Too bad Lending Tree — should have done your research.”
Just in case Shumer or Dodd have a congressional staffer reading here, could you please, please make sure your boss gets a chance to see this Kathleen Madigan video? It is so-o-o on target!
Shumer and Dodd are going to face a Backlash..latest from CNN article had bail out at nearly 120Billion.
The lenders will be bailed out. After all, it is only about the cost of just one year in Iraq. Politicians owe Wall Street and the banks; it is a done deal.
If the taxpayer has to foot the bill for this, I am going to start advocating tax evasion.
Not to worry. It is too big to bail out. There might be some half-assed feel good programs created, but they won’t do any good. Think back to the Katrina disaster. Now tell me with a straight face that this same bunch of yahoos can do anything meaningful to deal with a nationwide housing bust. Not a chance.
Nobody knows how much a full bail-out would cost, including bad Alt-A and prime - I guess one trillion dollar won’t be enough. Even Iraq pales in comparison. It could be the end of the dollar as an worlwide accepted currency. From then on, the US government would have to borrow in Yen or Euro and might actually go bankrupt.
The subprime alone is three trillion.
Glad to see media is finally publishing some other historical downturns we had in prior decades…
http://promo.realestate.yahoo.com/Forecast_100_Biggest_Markets.html
Worth a discussion
“He blames a national condo market slump on interests rates.”
Yeah, it’s the rates that are the problem. 6% is completely unmanageable.
Isn’t a 6% rate still pretty low by historic standards?
Yeah. I was like..what do you call it…joking.
i caught it
Actually 6% is kind of high historically. When we were on the gold standard rates were a lot lower.
Apples and oranges…
Yeah, a mortgage broker, is who an acquaintance of mine, when asked about the housing market stated that the Greenspan rate increases were the boogey man for home sales, etc. Did not matter that the actual rate was low,low by historic measure. The mere fact that increases happened one after another was the culprit. I do not know what to make of that. I think the broker was just looking for some canned response that sounds plausible enough but in reality is flimsy. Bernanke is in charge now, not Greenspan . Why the heck do rate increases spook buyers if the rate is still low (~6%)?
I’m guessing the broker doesn’t realize that the rate increases hurt only because affordability is already so severely strained.
He’s looking at the straw that broke the back of the camel, but not the load that beast has been struggling with for some time.
A home is a place to hang your hat. Pay too much for the peg, and you’re risking the real American Dream: the pursuit of happiness.”
Or perhaps the ability to be free and have choices other than to be tethered to a ball and chain you can’t sell.
Also caught my eye, I never knew that “the pursuit of happiness” was the American dream.
John Locke wrote “Life, liberty and the pursuit of property”; Thomas Jefferson changed Property to Happiness, but to the readers of the Declaration it was understood to refer to property.
Just an observation that everybody wants a Harley, true happiness.
I caught that, too.
“The phrase is based on the writings of John Locke, who expressed a similar concept of “life, liberty, and estate (or property)”. While Locke said that “no one ought to harm another in his life, health, liberty, or possessions”, Adam Smith coined the phrase “life, liberty, and the pursuit of property”. The expression “pursuit of happiness” was coined by Dr. Samuel Johnson in his 1759 novel Rasselas.”
Of course, “throwing one’s money away on buying” could be considered robbing oneself of one’s possessions!
“I grow old, I grow old
I shall wear my trousers rolled”
Correction accepted. Memory faulty
I didn’t know that. But it makes sense. The founding fathers were pretty hard-working, and would probably think we were a bunch of wastrels. Happiness, schmapiness.
“The founding fathers were pretty hard-working…”
I thought they were a bunch of slave owners and the largest property owners at that time. They were wealthy.
Washington and Jefferson were slave-owners. But none of the majority northeastern founding fathers were - they were farmers who worked their asses off as did their wives. Imagine what life would be like without running water, grocery stores, etc. Even traveling to conventions required days of travel. We would wilt and die.
“John Locke wrote “Life, liberty and the pursuit of property”; Thomas Jefferson changed Property to Happiness,’
I thought he changed it to ” the pursuit of the servants”
“It’s almost as if they have thrown money away, an insult once reserved for renters.”
This is the money quote from Wednesday’s front page NYT piece.
“Throwing money away on rent” — exactly the words I heard two years ago from the mother of some young newlyweds I know, who are now pulling their hair out over an underwater condo purchase.
No kidding. I could rent for a few years for the amount that homes in my neighborhood have gone down in value.
“Throwing money away” is my favorite knee-jerk response from someone who finds out that I rent. No one I know stops to think for a second that it might be more advantageous to rent vs. own in some market situations (like a speculative mania, perhaps). However, one couple I know spends 60%+ of their income toward the mortgage on their recently purchased house. They are no longer telling me that I am insane for continuing to rent. The two of them are no longer able to save any money, have maxed out their credit cards, and are pulling money from their equity. They refuse to consider selling their s_box house, but now admit that maybe I wasn’t so dumb in continuing to rent. Really sad.
The wife and I spent all of spring break in NYC (flew from San Diego). 2nd row seats for the Phantom of the Opera. Shopping for her - walking around Wall St. for me, etc. “Touristy” stuff, for sure, but great memories and pictures. Had to get one last trip in before the birth of our first child this summer. Budgeted all of the money (including food) up front back in March.
We still saved $2,300 of our take-home in the month.
Oh, and we stayed at the Waldorf-Astoria.
I suppose it’s a good thing that…
We Rent!
(2007 is going to suck - for some)
Great post WeRent. Always wanted to stay at the Waldorf, but always cheap out, which ain’t so cheap in NY. Overrated, no doubt, but what fun to tell the story. Congrats on your baby!
Glad you enjoyed my city- It may still be here after the Nor’Easter on Sunday night. I joked to some friends last week that I was hoping for an early hurricane season to drop prices in some of the NYC areas I like… 2 days later the Emergency Ops Center is being mobilized. And yes, renting rocks. Zillow value of my rental has dropped 200k this year. Ben and all, I thank you more than you know.
It’s funny how much you hear that throwing money away on rent but never about throwing it away on credit card interest.
So true. As a renter, I pay off my credit card in full every month. I wonder how many homeowners can say the same.
” throwing money away on rent but never about throwing it away on credit card interest…”
Or the 72% of mortgege interest that is not deductible. But of course, when housing prices are going up…everything is fine.
I want to throw this phrase back to some friends who told said this exact words to me a couple of years back… I want ask them so bad: ‘So you think i still throw my money away?’, ‘has your house/condo appreciated another 20% in 06?’, or ‘do you think i’m going to be priced out forever cuz i didn’t buy in 2005?’
but as they are my friends, I’m not gonna hurt their feelings and just gonna to keep mouth shut. I feel kinda bad as most of them are now underwater and struggle to meet their budgets.
You can still have fun with them. When you go out to a restaurant or club, buy the first round of drinks, telling them, “Well, I negotiated a lower rent with my landlord for the next year.”
What other subtle rejoinders can this group come up with?
Bill — I like that one. Mentioned before any discussion of housing, it is just an observation about which you are entitled to be happy and your friends should be happy for you. Reasonably subtle, relative to the bragging these folks did when they were buying their anchor, since it doesn’t directly address their folly but will make any but the dullest think about it.
You can always tell them the house you OWN is paid for…if it is. I don’t think having a home that you own outright, or that you have bought years prior to the run-up, and have a reasonable mortgage on, is necessarily a bad investment. What I think is pathetic are the people who have strapped themselves to the max for some crackerbox that was overpriced in 2005, whether it be in Bloomfield Hills, MI, or San Diego, CA. Ouch. It hurts. Take the probe out….ouch !
I remember typing a post here about a year ago pointing out that the true cost of home ownership during a downturn is the mortgage payment + taxes + insurance + upkeep PLUS THE MONTHLY DECLINE IN THE HOME”S VALUE! If your home drops $30,000 in a year, that $2500 PER MONTH you are losing..on top of all those other things.
Yep..home ownership is like throwing your money away! LOL
It’s going to be some time before I decide to throw my money away on a mortgage
Why would anyone use a mortgage? Just save and let interest actually work FOR you - not against!
That’s what I do. The interest on my savings account is 4.5%, it pay a large portion of my rent. My monies working for me.
Well, gold and silver fans, time to sell. Casey is on the bandwagon:
-snip-
What is more important is what are YOU doing to invest your money wisely with the dollar going down, the real estate crashing and the war about to break out? You tell me.
Keep your eyes on GSPG and MYNG and gold/silver in general. Man, I wish I had some cash right now.
If Casey jumping on the PM bandwagon isn’t a clear sell signal, I’ll eat my roomie’s BF’s piñata.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day…
Unless it’s digital.
People with no money aren’t very important in the markets.
What a pity, to know exactly what to do with one’s money, but have no cash to fulfull one’s investing dreams. Sigh.
What about using someone else’s money instead? Casey was good at that.
Is that a new situation for Casey? Isn’t that the crux of his story, “look at the stupid things I did with somebody else’s money and by the way, who the hell is that crazy chick from Texas who keeps dogging me?”
Got Trout?
There is no joy in Debtville. Puny Casey has struck out.
ROTFLOL
at the joy in debtville crack.
IAT
It’s the irony - seems that if he actually had good investment sense to begin with, then he’d have money to fulfill it. “Wishing he had some cash” is fruitless for him.
tx, it can only go up!
why am I not surprised?
Please– he’d find a way to screw up even a gold purchase. Knowing his ADD-addled brain, he’d buy at 685 and if the thing took even the slightest dip he’d panic and sell.
MYNG is he freaking kidding? I have 32,000 shares. Now I know I am screwed.
Txchick57, ” Keep your eyes on GSPG and MYNG and gold/silver in general. Man, I wish I had some cash right now.”
I was unclear wether you were suggesting these pennies…. I have my little PM specs for longterm fun, but any other little sprouts would be helpful. GMO, UXG have been doing Ok of late,and wouldn’t mind a few dice rolls….Looks like that squall line passed you by so hope all is well.
What do you expect from a guy who refuses to work, but chases after every shiny new trend?
Ask him why PM’s are good bets, and under what conditions they’ll pay off, and he’ll rattle off something about The Franklin Mint…
Paul
I suspect there will be once huge deflation event and stock market crash before hyperinflation begins. Gold seems to crash when the rest of the market does so I’m waiting on going all in until that initial deflation occurs.
Thanks bozonian, this newbie was wondering about that herself….after seeing Gold turn lower on recent Dow correction days.
Not for the casual observer as far as timing I would imagine.
Help, who is Casey ? I wish to read his posts/blog whatever.
“…..‘Never in American history has there been a time where you could get a mortgage for no money down,’ said investment industry icon Jim Rogers……”
I refer you back the the CA thread today where Centex was giving $100,000 to buyers to “help” with closing costs. That is a lot of help. A new Benz, a pool, a vacation to Hawaii.
When in American history has there been a period when you could get $100,000 cash out acquisition financing? Why today, of course.
How About a cherry picker making $15K a year gets $750K loan
http://patrick.net/wp/
Jim Rogers just made my day. I hope that Reuters doesn’t limit that article to the UK. FINALLY, common sense is fighting back. To all the f-tards who thought a new RE paradigm had taken hold: sorry (not really) about that, but you are going to learn the hard way. Get your popcorn ready folks.
Yes. Wait until the federal agencies start losing money on all these mortgage outfits held captive by builders. The FBI and the agency’s other enforcement arms (no pun intended) are going to make floaters (pun intended) of the home builders. You will need lots of popcorn to last out those battles. Beazer is just the starting gate in Florida.
For one of the most volatile days seen in a long time, 200 bps swings in the carry trade, the Euro going to record highs against the Yen, The dollar swaying in the breeze like a hung man, even the lowly Swiss Franc coming to life. And Casey says buy Gold. Why not, even Cramer is right once in a while?
lol
that was wild and crazy today. no intervention of course
“In a stark reversal, it’s now clear that people who chose renting over buying in the last two years made the right move.”
Feels so GOOOOOOD!
Economists weigh in on the folly of proposed bailouts:
‘”If the plan is to pay off loans when people quit, then I plan to quit paying my loan,” says Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics.
What’s more, some economists say a bailout could encourage more risky lending in the future. “A bailout would validate what some of these lenders and borrowers did, which we now understand was reckless,” says Carl Tannenbaum, president of the National Association of for Business Economics.
“I don’t think that’s what we want to do.”‘
http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/13/real_estate/subprimebailout_cost.moneymag/index.htm
It would be a good thing to try if they do arrange some kind of insane bailout. We could organize a nation wide mortgage strike. Everyone with a mortgage could refuse to pay their mortgage. It would be worth one month’s late fee to make a point.
That is brilliant, Climber! Show those idiots what can really happen when literally nobody pays their mortgage. LOL they think they got problems now.
I like it. If they refuse to let housing correct the good old fashioned way, maybe folks can get proactive and just quit paying altogether. A nation of squatters. Frankly, I’m more comfortable with that idea than the bailout. Why should anybody pay if there’s a broad swath that doesn’t need to?
I’m gonna get out there and start looking around for a house to claim. Plenty of empty ones out there.
My sister did this in Manhattan in the 80’s. They had a great apt. for free. Electricity was shared up and down the block with the few households left that were still legally occupied.
I’m sure it happens all the time in boom/busts.
Either let housing correct or free houses for all.
“I’m gonna get out there and start looking around for a house to claim.”
Too bad the bailout prospects are so darned unpredictable. Because if you knew for sure that anyone who stops paying their mortgage would get a bailout, this would be a great time to buy a home you could not afford, then just not make any payments until helicopter drops of bailout money were stolen from honest taxpayers and dropped into your lap.
The politians are just paying lip service the the FB’s. It will be the lenders that get bailed out! As always.
I just read that as well. I was sick to my stomach through the whole story until the paragraph you quoted, which couldn’t be more true.
Also, check out the poll asking whether sub-primes should be bailed out - 92% of responders say NO!
….but 100% of Chuck Schumer’s big banker buddies say YES. Money talks. Did you know 8 of his top 10 political contributors are Wall Street banks?
Chuck Shumer and Chris Dodd are the Wall Street banksters’ toadies. Their bailout proposal is targeted at ensuring the source of their future campaign contributions, not helping out foreclosed buyers who would be better off just pulling the plug rather than continuing their futile attempts to pay off loans at 10X their pretax household incomes.
Also, check out the poll asking whether sub-primes should be bailed out - 92% of responders say NO!
How many of these idiots want the bailout? It’s the banks & their lapdog politicians that are yammering for it. Think Joe 6P wants to be a FB for the next 3 decades??
Great link. Everybody gets it, from those struggling to pay taxes, food and shelter, to those way high up the food chain. I love it that this economist has suggested not paying his mortgage!
The Dems have mapped out a full fledged plan for their road to destruction and, as far as I can tell, they’re falling all over themselves to self destruct. Is there even one Democrat who has come out against this idea? Frankly, at this point I don’t even care, this talk has scared the sh#t out of me and I would not trust a Democrat who came out at this late stage and said it was a “bad” idea. They’ve lost my vote from here on in with this nonsense.
I saw a tape of Schumer questioning Bernanke from about a month ago, pre bailout talk. He asked pretty good questions that showed he clearly undersood the problem. And THIS is his solution? Hypocritical Dumbo to the highest degree. No offense to Dumbo the Elephant.
Lol
Hey, A bailout would be great. I quit paying my mortgage an my favorite uncle picks up the tap. That leaves my with more FIAT money to buy stuff…like a new BMW
“That leaves me with more FIAT money to buy stuff…like a new BMW ”
Small hitch (big for most actually),
You are only allowed to buy a FIAT with FIAT MONEY…
sorry, these are the rules
I thought American Dream = fat tax write offs.
Isn’t that what the big deal is? I sure as hell don’t wanna pay for this damn war.
If not then what???
Thanks for posting the CNBC “Bailout” link Ben.
Okay, it’s official, NOBODY wants the bailout. The only thing missing now is the fact that not everybody has heard the news about the bailout.
That is where we come in. Tell everybody you know about this proposed bailout. People who did not want to hear ANYTHING you had to say about the bubble proper are all ears when it comes to using their tax money for a bailout of foolhearty homedebtors.
So get out there and spread the word to those who do not read this blog or watch CNBC. There is a lot of pent up anger out there about this idea of a bailout.
The bigger problem is that most people don’t even understand the need for a bailout. In order to understand that, they need to understand the housing bubble and its root causes. Good luck trying to explain that to people who refuse to hear it.
Toast,
You are not giving people enough credit. Once they hear about the bailout , they get angry and many are then very receptive to other bubble news that they could not have cared less about a few months back.
Every single person who I have mentioned this to is incensed and many now want to know more.
I feel like there’s some sort of elitist attitude going on here. Kind of like “We’re so smart, WE understand bailouts are bad, just like we understood paying overinflated RE prices is bad, but other people are too stupid to care”. We flatter ourselves if we think we have a corner on wisdom ONE HUNDRED PERCENT of the time.
It is simply not true that people don’t care/can’t understand the bailout. This is THEIR TAX MONEY we are talking about.
But if you don’t want to do anything about it, even something as simple as MENTIONING it to people who may not know yet, that is your perrogative.
On the local NPR radio show today in LA there was a show on the possible bailout: 5 called in vehemently against, with 1 semi-coherent guy saying he didn’t want to see anymore homeless people.
I started a thread on my local paper’s discussion about Schumer and the bail-out. It devolved pretty quickly. I think I got one response which spoke to my original post. There’s anger out there all right. It’s just totally unfocused and sometimes irrational.
The subdivision in FL named ‘Hasty Acres’!!! hahaha
So funny. should be named ‘Hasty Profits’. these builders knew it would crash hard of course they all did.
“Hasty Acres” Other subdivisions nearby include: “The Summitt at Slipshod”, “Crooked Corners”, “Devonshire Downturns”, and “Lean-too Lakes”
Are those near Green Woods, Artifice at Razor’s Edge, or Fallacious Estates, imploder?
Don’t be absurd. Places imploder mentioned are “classy” Sh#tholes….
Sign of the times. I was casting around trying to find a CLE course on representing political action committees. So I go to old trusty PLI and here’s their list of offerings. If this isn’t a bubble top in hedge funds and securities/corporate equity stuff, I don’t know what is.
http://www.pli.edu/product/program_viewall.asp?ptid=511
hehe this is like the Java programming craze in early 2000.
I’m seriously considering switch to quant finance… I know it’ll be ugly but so will be tech.
“Last week, a sign high over Interstate 75 reported for the first time there were more than 100,000 homes for sale in metro Atlanta. ‘I’ve been selling real estate in Henry County 20 years and this is the largest inventory I’ve ever seen,’ said associate broker Dottie Wise.”
So much for the Florida-exodus echo-boom.
But isn’t everyone just flocking to metro Atlanta? And don’t the boomers want to retire there?
You know who is REALLY screwed? The boomer/retirees who bought in “up and coming” countries in Central/South America because they’d been priced out of S. Florida.
Oops! At least Florida is sort of like the U.S. and the laws are sort of enforced.
Baja California Condo Bubble as well.
Costa Rica is definitely a bubble and will get cheap again.
Costa Rica is definitely a bubble and will get cheap again.
Sigh… I have a good friend building on the beach there.
Oh… as Costa Rican mortgages are next to impossible, they have been extracting equity from their “investment properties” to pay the builder. Bummer that the final two big payments require selling “their first home that has so much equity” in Lawndale. Ummm… Lawndale has some ok parts… that’s as good as it gets.
This will last years… but expect all hell to break lose in 2008 as half the population realizes they were dependent on continued real estate appreciation (via MEWs, income, or just the ability to sell in the black).
Got popcorn?
Neil
I used to work at HAC in the 70s and one of my coworkers who owned a duplex was known as the “Land Baron of Lawndale”.
I’d buy in Baja California or the Pacific coast of Costa Rica long before I’d buy in Florida. Both of those places are much nicer.
You got that right, Mugsy. Last year I took the family down to Nicaragua. We stayed at a nice little hotel in downtown Grenada for part of our trip, right around the corner from the town square. We noticed several american couples having what seemed like business meetings with some locals over the course of a couple of days so we asked the owner what was going on? She said that there was a big RE boom and these were buyers negotiating purchases. We heard one couple, allegedly from Seattle, bought like 3 or 4 properties. They spent something like 3-400K to boot, just crazy. It is a third world country with widespread poverty. I can not understand how these folks came to believe this was a good idea?
even in third world countries, properties can go up sometimes, if you are from that part of the world or know someone, it might be a good idea.
All the stupid things first world does, the third world replicates 10X better. Look at the property boom in Bombay, Shanghai. (Yes, they STILL are third world cities, despite 5% of inhabitants living 1st world lifestyles).
In Nicaragua a couple of years ago they took all the land back and gave it to the ‘people’. Could easily happen again.
The lovely Daniel Ortega is back. Strange that a Sandanista and his family have become very wealthy. Hmmm.
like they always say; being wealthy beats being dead
“But isn’t everyone just flocking to metro Atlanta? And don’t the boomers want to retire there?”
Yes, just like they were flocking to Arizona, right? There’s major spin going on in Atlanta by local government, GAR, builders, and corporate-owned AJC to keep housing going. They need the tax revenue, their commissions, to keep building and selling houses, and to keep the real estate ad-revenue up.
I can’t wait to see the numbers for Maricopa/Pinal counties next week. We are rapidly approaching 60,000. Over the past six weeks, we are averaging an additional 1000 listings per week. Ugly!
We’ve broken the 10k barrier in Tucson.
Can someone tell me about the GA market? We’re moving to the Lake Oconee, Greensboro area for hubby’s work. We told the realtor only houses from 150-175,000 and the houses she sent are nice. 3/2’s around 1600-2000 sq.ft. She got huffy when i said we’d lowball. Actually said I would OFFEND people if I did that and houses there sell for about 95% of asking price. I can’t find anything about sales in that area or even Atlanta. Every month the FAR puts out our abyssmal number (thank God we sold and rent) but GAR doesn’t seem to have that. Zip Realty doesn’t work out there. We leave Monday for a six day house hunting trip. Any thoughts?
Get a new realtor!!!
Agreed. Get a new realtor, a buyer’s realtor. The GAR has the market rigged. We can’t even get the square footage of existing homes being sold. A realtor told us the same thing a couple of years ago. We ended up backing out of the deal. Also, hire your own independent appraiser and inspector. It’s well worth the money spent.
Alison -
If I were you, I’d rent for 6 -12 months first to check out the area you want to live and the market.
Exactly. Rent first then look to buy. Don’t forget to do the math. I would be suprised if it’s cheaper to own /vs./ rent. Unless hubby’s comapny is ofeing low cost loans for a limited time and you’re going to be there awhile, just rent and be happy you don’t have a ball and chain (except for the kids of course) around your neck.
Good luck.
“‘Never in American history has there been a time where you could get a mortgage for no money down,’ said Jim Rogers. ‘You just don’t clean out a speculative bubble in six months.’”
Exactly! This bust is a multi-year process.
I am still seeing people pay twice as much as they should for a house using ARM loans.
I also know of many HELOC whores that are continuing to use them for everything from Pontiacs to Plasmas.
That’s one of the craziest thing about this stupid bailout talk. All of these loans are still available.
24 hour infomercials from “Flexpoint Lending” and others offering toxic loans, Bank of America hawking HELOCs on TV.
Brilliant strategy to talk about bailouts when the crap that led us here is still happening.
That’s an important observation, IMO.
No way, no how am I in favor of a bailout but IF there is one, it should only come with a complete wipeout of these loans. This at least would have the effect of lowering prices dramatically while forcing FB’s to continue to pay on their “reworked” mortgage.
Of course, who’s going to continue to pay when their home goes from $400K to $150K? No one, which is why a bailout won’t work.
A fine catch-22 it is.
I’ve seen the ads as well, but I can’t figure out where they’re selling those loans. I can’t picture many buyers of the toxic stuff and the CDO machine can’t be working because the BBB tranche can’t be sold.
I think maybe they’re just trying the bait-and-switch. People come in looking for the 100%, no-doc loans and the brokers try to switch them into something else.
“…stupid bailout talk.”
Nothing like trying to rob the taxpayers by forcing them to pay for the consequences of a nonexistent crisis, is there?
“Exactly! This bust is a multi-year process.”
Maybe not! Maybe anyone that would pay these prices has already Has made their purchse and we ran out of buyers.
Vote against the bailout here:
http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/13/real_estate/subprimebailout_cost.moneymag/index.htm?cnn=yes
Sometimes politicians wait for the latest poll results before they form an opinion on anything. Go vote!
Sorry for the lengthy post. I sent the following to my Senator yesterday, Senator Feinstein. I thought I’d share it here. Take care.
IAT
It is my understanding that the Democrat controlled Congress I helped elect is now considering intervening in the housing market that has kept me a renter for my entire adult life. I had hoped to purchase a house by now, but the outrageous market prices in the bay area made that irresponsible. To purchase a house I would have had to outbid others who used mortgage instruments that were time-bombs waiting to go off should conditions change ever so slightly, and the only way I would have been able to do that would have been to take one of those mortgages myself. By using those financial instruments people who were truly unable to afford the house unless it continued to appreciate at the unsustainable level of 20% per year priced those of us unwilling to take on that sure-to-eventually-fail proposition out of the market. My only hope of ever settling into a home of my own was that, eventually, sanity would return–prices would come down and sane lending practices would allow the prudent a chance to buy. Although it is unfortunate that for that to happen some people who mis-timed the market will have to take major losses, I am quite confident that had appreciation continued, they would have had little difficulty enjoying the gains they accrued at the expense of higher house prices for others. But, investing to bank gains means taking the losses that occur as well.
So, now just as it appears that the market is beginning to correct (so a 2 bdrm home in a dangerous area will come down from the lofty price of 1/2 million+), the Democrats start floating plans to interrupt this market process. No one forced these people to bid outrageous sums for houses, or mortgage their future to make the impossible payments, or to sign documents they (claim they) did not understand. Had appreciation continued, there would have been NO BAILOUT for the prudent people who were priced out of the market, and no sharing of those gains they accrued, either.
Now, I hasten to add, I am against letting anyone starve. But being unable to stay in the home one has contracted to purchase because one cannot make the payments is not the same as starving. Owning a home is something one must earn, it is not a right. And taking unwise risks in speculative pursuit of financial profit should not be protected, especially as the eagerness of some to take those risks pushed prices to unsustainable levels for everyone else.
So, I have been a lifelong Democrat. I have devoted much of my activities to working for the poor and the downtrodden. I will continue to do so. However, if ANY bailout happens in ANY WAY, SHAPE, or FORM, then I am bailing out of this party. Again, I am not saying anyone should starve. But renting has been good enough for me, and no one came to bail me out of that situation as prices surged to stratospheric levels. If it is good enough for me, then it is certainly good enough for those who sought windfall profits by making outrageous bids in hopes of making a killing, and turned out to have mis-timed the market. Restoring sanity to housing markets depends on letting the current processes of foreclosure unfold without Congressional interference.
Excellent letter!
Yes, It is very well written, and lays out all the relevant points in a logical and irrefutable manner.
Unfortunately, what you should have done - if you really wanted to communicate to the senator’s aides - is send out a crayon drawing of a frowny face stick figure with the caption “Bail Out Bery Badd!!” and don’t forget to include Hooter’s beer coupons.
paul
Paul
The FB’s will not be living in the streets. They can go back to renting if they cannot truly afford to buy that $600K crackshack
Sorry for the lengthy reply. (Anyone feel free to copy any or all of my letter, if you want, to send to members of Congress, state officials, MSM, etc.)
I, too, have sent letters and emails. I sent emails to Dodd and Schumer (even though I don’t reside in their districts) telling them that their bailout plans suck (I worded it a little more elegantly), and sent the following letter to Rep. Rohrbacher and Sens. Boxer and Feinstein:
Government absolutely should not attempt to implement any taxpayer funded bailout relating to housing. People must be responsible for their own actions. Regarding housing, these people would include home builders, borrowers, lenders, appraisers, mortgage brokers, real estate agents, mortgage backed securities (“MBS”) investors, hedge funds, credit default swap investors, and Wall St. bankers that granted wholesale lines of credit and bought and packaged loans for sale as MBS. All of these people voluntarily entered into their portion of the lending transaction, and they must be held accountable for their actions. For those who feel defrauded, they can turn to the legal system to prove their case; if they were defrauded, then they can recover from those who perpetrated the fraud and, hence, do not need a bailout. For those who simply made bad decisions, whether out of ignorance, laziness, or simply betting that housing would continue to appreciate, it is not the government’s role to bail them out using taxpayer money.
Housing prices have been in a bubble during the last seven to 10 years (depending upon the location). The bubble was created by the Federal Reserve flooding the market with liquidity by way of lowering the federal funds rate to 1% and leaving it there for far too long. It was then helped along by lenders loosening their lending criteria to the point where anyone who could fog a mirror could get a loan for half a million dollars or more. The lenders then prolonged the bubble even more by offering teaser rate and negative amortization loans to borrowers in the guise of “affordability products.” But the fact is, prices simply became unaffordable and totally disconnected from economic fundamentals including price to income and cost to own versus rent ratios. There were other factors as well, but in the interests of trying to keep this letter short, I will limit it to the above and state that if you would like more information on the housing bubble, the blogs are the place to look. A few good ones include TheHousingBubbleBlog.com, CalculatedRisk.blogspot.com, and Pigginton.com. You will find a plethora of information and analysis from those sites, with far superior analysis and reporting than anything found in the mainstream media.
Many in the real estate industry acted as cheerleaders, stating that “real estate prices always go up” and that people had to “buy now or be priced out forever.” Some borrowers succumbed to the cheerleaders, and made unwise decisions. Others, like myself, realized that housing prices were simply too high, and refused to sign up for an obligation that we could not afford. In doing so, I have put my dream of buying my first home on hold for several years, all because others ran up prices far beyond fundamentals. I know that I will need to wait a couple more years for prices to revert the mean, and once again make housing affordable for the average person. But any attempt by government to prop up these borrowers that simply borrowed more than they can afford will only work to slow down the correction, all the while increasing government debt. Thus, those who were foolish or naïve or simply speculators will be rewarded, while those of us who were responsible will be asked to pay for others’ mistakes, both through our tax dollars and by having to wait longer to buy a home at a reasonable price.
A government bailout would also act as terrible precedent, as it would induce more speculation in real estate as speculators would believe that the government would bail them out again in the future if the prices ever dropped. Essentially, a government bailout would act for housing similarly to the “Greenspan put” for securities. As has been said many times, any time the government subsidizes something, you get more of it. In this case, a government bailout would result in more speculation in housing. The government did not offer a bailout for those who lost money in dot com stock market crash or myriad corporate scandals (e.g., Enron, WorldCom, etc.), and it was right not to do so. The stockholders voluntarily agreed to purchase the stock (or hold stock of their employers received as compensation), and thus assumed the risk of any loss. Likewise, those who took out loans on terms that they cannot afford on the assumption that they would either sell or refinance assumed the risk that prices would not decrease and that credit would not tighten. Many people will suffer economically and emotionally from losing their houses, but they must take responsibility for actions. As Benjamin Franklin stated, “Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other.”
High housing prices are not good for America. If housing prices are high, then those who buy or refinance their homes have less money to spend on other items while those who do not own homes are left with the choice of either delaying their purchase or taking on a risky level of debt. Additionally, high housing prices tend to break up extended families, as sons and daughters must leave their parents and hometowns in search of lower housing costs elsewhere. High housing costs also encourage people to move further out into the suburbs and exurbs in search of lower housing costs. But these moves to the suburbs and exurbs result in long commutes which are bad for both families (as the commuter has less time to spend with family) and the environment (as they drive more miles, burning more gas). These, along with many other similar reasons, all show that high housing prices are bad. Think of it this way, is there anything else that you would want to cost a lot? Housing prices are no different. Sure, appreciation in any asset that you own is good, but only if you own that asset. It is not good for anyone who wants to buy the asset.
So, let me just conclude this with a couple of points. Housing prices are too high, based on economic fundamentals, and they will revert to the mean either by prices dropping or incomes rising (which would likely lead to inflation), or a combination of both. Any attempt by government to stop this economic process is unwise and futile, and will only make the correction last longer, cost taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars that the government can’t afford, reward speculation and all of the irresponsible actors (e.g., borrowers, lenders, etc.), and punish those who have been responsible and held off buying until prices are reasonable. I will support politicians that oppose government intervention and bailouts, and I will actively oppose any politician who supports a government bailout. People must take responsibility for their own actions, and a government bailout would simply make America that much closer to a nanny state.
I made the same, albeit less eloquent, threat to the very same Senator Feinstein.
I had sent one to Boxer. Please send a note to your elected officials. Get the message out. I’ve heard before that one letter received is same as hearing from 5000. Most sheeple don’t do anything except complain. Too many don’t even vote.
I vote, but I am skeptical that my elected officials will pay any heed to a letter. Why bother?
GetStucco: skeptical you may be but lazy you’re not - you keep your oar in the water. “Elected officials” like two? so maybe you should send an email to both, then it’s unlikely that they will both deny you to the same degree. Worse what if they ask for more info? then you have to respond! Worse again what if they ask to meet? GetStucco you might get stuck!
I’ve always heard that a written letter, sent via the good old US Postal Service, is by far the most effective method to communicate. Email, faxes, and voice mails are too easy to mass mail. Keep the letters short (less than a page), include your contact info, and conclude with a thank you.
Of course, I sent my letters to my senators and reps and have yet to get a reply, so take my advice with a grain of salt.
You know, the hilarious thing is that we are spending way more than the proposed bailout $$ annually for that worthless war that Monkey Boy George got us into in Iraq. Most Republican lawmakers supported that fiasco, and many still do. The rank-and-file sheep believe all the bs generated for justifiying that one - freedom for Iraqis ? Oh please - you must mean ” freedom to continue killing each other “….I’ve WORKED for Iraqis. They are ruthless, hard-working people. Where were all the letters about this war ? If you think sending a letter to your elected officials about a proposed bailout is worthwhile, but you didn’t think that spending at least QUADRUPLE that amount of tax $$ was foolish and just a way for George to really get to “drive the tank or aircraft carrier around ” then you are just part of the feedstock for the vultures and vampires to continue to suck blood (your hard-earned dollars ) from…..that’s all the average American is to these self-proclaimed gods in power…..wake up.
Dear Senator Schumer,
This letter is in response to a possible bail out of the subprime mortgage industry and borrowers.
Please do not reward irresponsible and reckless behavior with my tax dollars. Most lenders and borrowers were chasing quick profits, in the process pushing prices to levels well beyond the means of most traditional home buyers. A bail out would send the wrong signal punishing those who manage their finances in a responsible manner while rewarding gamblers and speculators. Applying the same arguments you might as well tag on a bill that bails out compulsive gamblers in Vegas.
No families are going to be kicked out on the streets. First, a lot of real estate was purchased as “investment” (i.e. wild speculation) and secondly, vacant housing is at an all time high. Those that can’t afford a house still have the option to rent while saving for a downpayment. I know, terms like “saving” and “downpayment” are old fashioned, but they actually do serve a purpose. Declining real estate prices are to be seen as something positive since it will put the prospect of home ownership within reach of the fiscally responsible.
In that sense I urge you to vote against any bail out. Please remember, I rent and I vote.
Sincerely
Mike Schmidt
Miami, FL
“Applying the same arguments you might as well tag on a bill that bails out compulsive gamblers in Vegas.”
Excellent letter! I suggest that Shumer ought to go the extra step and set up a bailout fund for anyone who loses a penny on the Las Vegas strip.
I actually own a home in Durham, NC and rent in Miami. If that bailout deal goes through I will quit making payments…. as should do ANYBODY that has a mortgage. Uncle Sam will take care of business. What’s going on in these people’s minds? What the F@*K???
Bravo! I will write to all of my representatives. Everybody needs to do the same.
I sent two emails to Feinstein, Boxer, and my US Rep. I haven’t gotten any replies yet.
‘The general expectation is that the 2007 resale housing market should be a good year…assuming that there are no negative geopolitical events and that the sub-prime problem remains fairly contained.’”
Can anyone remind me of the last year where we had no negative geopolitical events? I can’t seem to recall any.
To the best of my memory (which is faulty) we haven’t had a geopolitical problem in 90 years. 1918. Since then we are just trying, in a friendly manner, to show others the light.
I was gonna say 1913-14
The last time an ex-President used “geopolitical” in a sentence (Ford) he was grilled by Dan Rather. “Geopolitical” does not mean anything, the only reason this term is in the American lexicon is because it lends itself to an aura of knowledgable expertise.
Yeah, go ahead and post Webster’s definition if you want.
Got 10% down?
‘”…2007 resale housing market should be a good year…assuming that there are no negative geopolitical events and that the sub-prime problem remains fairly contained.’”
The Jay Butler line seems to fit into this Rich Toscano analysis from a couple of months ago:
“This is the type of permabull revisionism that we can expect a lot more of in the months and years ahead. It goes something like this: “We were right to predict infinitely rising home prices, but who could have foreseen Factor X?” Factor X might be further mortgage defaults, employment weakness, a consumer slowdown, outmigration, or any number of other problems. It will be discussed as if it was some entirely unpredictable exogenous shock, and that the bullish analysts’ predictions would have been spot on had the X-Factor not come into play.”
http://voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2007/02/27/opinion/01toscano022707.txt
Bill Meierhoff describes the current Duluth condominium market as ‘horse s–t,’ albeit with a chuckle.”
Condos in Duluth, Minnestosa don’t seem to be selling too well either.
Hummmm….A frozen view of Lake Superior at 25 below with a windchill of minus 55 degrees WITHOUT power vr’s a Naples, Florida and a Cat 4-5 Hurricane at 57 debt-ridden degrees WITHOUT a Paddle ?
Auh yes…American Luxury Condo Living, so many exciting choises, so little time.
I’m laughing with you and AT you Bill…ha ha ha
For those of you who don’t know, the fact that there are “luxury condos” in Duluth MN is classic!
I love Duluth, it is one of the most beautiful cities on Earth. At the tip of Lake Superior it has hills and water and all that. It’s like a mini-San Francisco (without the crime or the urban problems etc)
But it only has 100,000 people or so (maybe 150,000 metro area), and it is truly freezing with tons of snow. When you all talk about Minneapolis weather, you’re really describing Duluth weather.
it is a working class place with wonderful down to earth people, but a $15 an hour job is hard to come by there. I know, I have close family there and am there an awful lot.
when condos came to Duluth, I knew we were officially in a FRENZY of MANIC proportions!
that said: although I hate winter, the view of frozen Lake Superior is actually quite beautiful (the whole lake doesn’t freeze, it’s too big but a lot of it does and it reminds me of Superman’s hideout!)
I asked my brother “why are they building all these condos? who is going to live in them?” (since Duluthians don’t live in condos unless they’re poor.)
His response:
“All those rich people from the Sin Twitties”. (his nickname for the Twin Cities)
Duluthians of grandeur…
I’ve lived 8 years in SF and visited Duluth many times while living 3 years in the Twin Cities. Calling Duluth a ‘mini’ SF is beyond preposterous… what are you smoking?
“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.”
Thomas Jefferson
“you’re a maroon”
- Bugs Bunny
“‘The guy behind me is trying to sell his house and move to Tampa, and he can’t even get any bites,’ he said.”
Let’s introduce you to the concept of geographic lock. We discussed it on this board quite a long time ago. Your neighbor… he can move to Tampa, just not with any money. He’ll also have to keep paying off his Atlanta home. Bailout? Why? He’s still making the payments.
Now, if he were smart he’d sell cheap in Atlanta and wouldn’t buy in Orlando for 24+ months. Oh… he doesn’t want to “give the home away” or delay gratification? Then he gets to sit in his house in Atlanta. Please do tell on why he decided he (she?) reconsidered and decided that he (she?) wanted to stay in Atlanta.
I hope your neighbor wasn’t pursuing a better job… why that might make me…
bwaaa haaa haa!
Oops… louder than I intended.
Got popcorn?
Neil
“In a stark reversal, it’s now clear that people who chose renting over buying in the last two years made the right move. In much of the country, including large parts of the Northeast, California, Florida and the Southwest, recent home buyers have faced higher monthly costs than renters and have lost money on their investment in the meantime.”
“It’s almost as if they have thrown money away, an insult once reserved for renters.”
…and I guess that I must repeat myself: I great bumper sticker for you guys in Bubbleland simply says: “I RENT”
Hey, what about “WE RENT!” ?
Yea - that works too - maybe even more powerful, as you’re cutting up the soccer mom model (i.e., 2.5 perfect kids, in a perfect public school, with a perfect SUV). When you say “I rent”, you imply (somewhat) that you’re a Gen X type living a free-wheeling lifestyle.
Excellent point. For now on my suggested Bumper Sticker is: “We Rent!”
p.s., send me an address for royalty payments.
Housing bubble stuff:
http://www.cafepress.com/buy/housing%20bubble/-/cfpt2_/cfpt_/source_searchBox/copt_
The ONLY bailout I’m for, is if the other Ben, leaps from that Helicopter at 10,000 feet without his frigging parachute.
The market in Miami is currently getting flooded with new offerings. The asking prices haven’t come down much/any. Wonder if anybody is still buying? I’d guess fools with borrowed money are getting increasingly scarce.
Tornado sirens going off all around me. If I don’t come back, nice knowing all of you
txchick, hope you are OK. Those tornadoes are nothing to mess with. Stay safe and check in when all is clear.
You be safe. I was thinking of you when speaking with my son and his fiancee. They are at the hospital in Belton where she is a nurse. Not as bad as North Dallas but still exciting. Take care.
Txchick, you have to be safe or you won’t get to see pictures of the 34th ANNUAL DOXIE DERBY (daschund races) from Sat. This is an anual event at UCDavis’s Picnic day.
txchick, take comfort in the same thought I had the morning of the Northridge earthquake: well, at least I’m not in Winnipeg.
This is a wierd OT thing, but does anyone know how they did the tornado special effects in “The Wizard of Oz”. The movie was made in 1939, before computers and CGI but the tornado effects are awesome.
Hope you have a basement or storm cellar! Stay safe.
The chief economist for Stewart Title Guaranty Co. advised Reno-area home sellers Friday to get real with pricing.
“You have to sober up the seller and educate the buyer,” Ted C. Jones told about 250 real estate and financial professionals. “There’s too much expectation. Your seller is like road kill, and your buyer is waiting for that road kill to rot.
“You’re listing (homes) at the wrong price, guys,” he said. “Your issue is surplus inventory. What’s not moved is a huge inventory of existing homes. What scares the tar out of me is one-third of it is vacant.”
http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070413/NEWS18/70413039&oaso=news.rgj.com/breakingnews
Does anyone think the sellers will actually get real? It’s ultimately up to them to lower their price, and with all the newly completed stuff coming on the market inventory has been skyrocketing, I say rot road kill, rot!!!
“I’ve rented and owned, and it comes down to this. A home is a place to hang your hat. Pay too much for the peg, and you’re risking the real American Dream: the pursuit of happiness.”
Can we vote for quote of the year? Because this is my pick. If, when this is all over, Ben condenses this blog into a book (and he should), this should be on the cover.
A home is a box of air on a square of dirt you get to sit and sleep in when you’re not working or traveling. But it offers neither the financial reward of work nor the pleasure of travel.
Awesome! I had a boss once that we called the office Martha Stuart. His passion was home decorating. He told me a home to him was an extension of a man’s personality. I told him a house to me was a place to sleep out of the wind and cold. Having been in construction and development for over 30 years, I have no physical attachment to a house.
I’ve said before that my dream home is the one where I don’t have to make mortgage payments and the bathrooms are easy to clean.
Since I am following the IMF meeting until the report is issued this evening. I am posting updates as they progress.
“However, while there was good news for the G7, ministers still remain divided on a number of subjects - including currency volatility, protectionism and regulation of the trillion-dollar hedge fund industry.
Germany has been calling for tighter regulations to control hedge funds, claiming that should one major hedge fund collapse it could have severe consequences for global finances.
Over the past year international concern has grown over the level of risk investors are exposed to by the lightly-regulated investment schemes, which as both high-return and high-risk are popular with wealthy investors.
However, both the US and IMF have resisted calls for tighter regulation of the sector, claiming that market forces are sufficient means to control it.”
Germany is not happy, China refused to come, since this is a US show - the IMF will do what the US wants.
“When George Bush picked Paul Wolfowitz as head of the World Bank, the biggest fear was that the architect of the US invasion of Iraq would turn the world’s most important aid agency into a neocon arm of the White House. The reality has been far worse: in two years Wolfowitz has turned the bank into a rudderless, divided institution that is seeing its credibility drain away….in spite of its gleaming headquarters and heavyweight staff - boasting enough PhDs to stock several reputable economics departments - the bank is a fragile organisation. It is only as powerful as the rich developed governments that fund it allow it to be….Wolfowitz has been accused of using its policies as a veil for US-inspired actions, such as the rapid turnaround in treatment of Uzbekistan by the bank, shortly after the former Soviet republic expelled US troops from bases there”.
It is sad to think that the short term futures of American policy and American business are based on lies and obfuscations.
I hope Wolfy ends up in jail. They better audit the books when he leaves. Everyone associated with Bush seems to be corrupt, incompetent, or both. On the other hand, every Democrat running for President has called for a bailout of the Wall Street bankers. Which devil is the lesser of two evils?
If a bailout is going to happen, here’s how it should look:
FB’s get refi’ed directly by the Federal Gov, at some percentage of the loan amount - say 90% (the lenders eat the rest as punishment for loaning this garbage to begin with), at a fixed rate of 10% for 40 years. Payment on $300K would be $2550 a month. Can’t afford it? Regular foreclosure.
Oh, and the money for these loans comes from 9.5% T-bills, fully insured and available ONLY to financially responsible US citizen renters or non-FB homeowners. And make them income tax exempt while you’re at it.
I’ve got $100K ready to go at 9.5%, Chucky!
The Fed will crank up the printing presses and inflation will run at 15%
Subprime bailout? $120 billion?
Larry Litton, whose company Litton Loan Servicing oversees the payments on 400,000 subprime loans, says on average it costs his company $16,000 to put one of its customers through a “loan modification” program if which borrowers get moved into loans with slightly lower rates. That would put the price tag of a nationwide program to assist troubled borrowers at $17.6 billion, using Cagan’s default estimates.
“The numbers are going to get very large,” says Raphael Bostic, a professor of economics at the University of Southern California. “I don’t think this is a feasible plan.”
http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/13/real_estate/subprimebailout_cost.moneymag/index.htm
The only reasonable bailout is to provide qualified long time renters (5 years) with the 20% deposit. This benefits the right people and helps the sellers out of a jam. Sign me up.
Yeah except who wants a 20% deposit for these overpriced POS’s. They’d have to make it closer to an 80% downpayment “gift” before I’d bite at that opportunity.
With an 80% gift downpayment from the gov., I’d go out there and take a home off the hands of one of these sellers. Otherwise, just let the market correct.
scranton and rochester are going to boom
http://promo.realestate.yahoo.com/Forecast_100_Biggest_Markets.html
That is a great chart.
Interesting to see that the worst year of decline was not the same for different markets. I am guessing these differences relate to local employment. (Hence, my suggestion for a jobs thread a week or so ago.)
Also the % decline in these different markets varied greatly.
Please do not jump on this statement. But it would lend some credence to the “It’s different here” argument. Knoxville TN’s worst year decline was .1% which Honolulu’s worst was almost 52%. I’m gonna go out on a limb here and suggest Honolulu experienced a higher percentage of FBs than Knoxville did in its downturn.
The credit liquidity issue probably will make the pain in individual markets more homogeneous this time around but here we see we’re not all riding the same roller-coaster.
Glad to see media is finally publishing some other historical downturns we had in prior decades…
http://promo.realestate.yahoo.com/Forecast_100_Biggest_Markets.html
Worth a discussion
City Decline Year
Honolulu, HI -51.9 80-81
Austin, TX -20.1 88-89
Poughkeepsie, NY -19 82-83
Detroit, MI -17.8 81-82
Las Vegas, NV -17 82-83
Portland, OR -16.6 80-81
San Antonio, TX -15.8 81-82
Oklahoma City, OK -15.7 87-88
Toledo, OH -14.6 82-83
Farmington Hills, MI -13.2 81-82
McAllen, TX -12.3 88-89
Allentown, PA -12.2 81-82
Los Angeles, CA -11.9 92-93
San Jose, CA -11.6 00-01
Grand Rapids, MI -11.2 81-82
Ventura County, CA -10.7 90-91
Fresno, CA -9.7 82-83
“We’d be fools not to ride this strange torpedo to the end.”
Hunter S. Thompson
yes, that’s what I kept telling her…
I ‘m glad she listened…
News from Portland Oregon newspaper the Willamette week.
The guy must be paid in full by David Liarallthetime.
http://www.wweek.com/editorial/3322/8789/
“Yes, buy the overpriced POS! Cause you’re good enough, you’re smart enough, and, gosh darn it, Suzanne researched it!”
FINALLY!!!
Charges filed against crooks Crisp and Cole
http://bakersfieldbubble.blogspot.com
Just opened my best bottle of wine!
FINALLY!
Is a new moniker for your blog handle in the offing?
LOL!!!
You should get trashed off fine wine after this news.
Hmmm… such a good Idea I’ll do it myself.
Oh… its my “bachelor party” weekend. Rather than something tacky… we’re going the going to mammoth to mull wine (Gluewine).
Definitely celibate. How many lives did they destory?
Got popcorn?
Neil
“How many lives did they destory?”
I hope fraudsters (according to the charges) are punished !
“Celibate?”
Dr. Freud, call your office.
“its my “bachelor party” weekend”
Are you going to post the video on your blog? LOL.
We probably wont hear from him for a week
Here’s a house price calculator that shows how much money you’ll lose by buying now in many towns across the US. It’s based on the OFHEO housing price index. They’re factoring in the amount of depreciation for each community.
http://www.cepr.net/calculators/hb/hcc.html
Enjoy!
Oh that is sweet! I sure wish I had put that together. Here is the scenario for buying a $500K home in San Diego and selling it in five years versus renting. It suggests you would be better off renting for “below $7200 a month.” (BTW, we rent a home that would sell for $500,000 dollars for $2300 a month.)
BwaHaHaHaHAAA!!!!
——————————————————————————
Costs of Ownership v. Renting:
Your basic costs start at $ 2,700 per month. However, if you can rent a similar home for less than $ 7,200 per month, you may be better off renting.
House Appreciation (real) -61%
Purchase Price $500,000
Monthly Rent 3,000
Ownership Costs Sale Price 195,100
Outstanding Mortgage 309,300
Commission and fees 11,700
Total Cash (Owning) -125,900
Select various cities and see what their forecast appreciaion will be. For 10 years of ownership, the ones I looked at were all negative numbers. They ranged from 12 to 13 percent in my neck of the woods to 50-60% in Florida cities, 50-60% the D.C. area, and over 60% in the California cities.
Imagine if that comes to pass.
“Imagine if that comes to pass.”
The govt will do all they can to avoid that scenario. But which of our “friends” abroad will want to get stuck holding the bag on failed MBS, or rapidly inflating currency?
Carolina doesn’t even have a clue what’s going on in the bubble markets. I recently moved from Caroilna (Durham) to Miami. $300K buys you a nice home, boderline Mansion in NC. Miami…how about a 1200sqft shack in the slums or a studio apartment. CRAZY! I am renting, no way I pay $200+ a sqft for slum property.
Casey Serin is on ABC Nightline. They are talking about liar loans.
Liar loans were nearly 50% of mortgages in 2005 & 2006
Are liar loans included in the proposed bail-out?
My god………this is all to funny.
but I guess, if you lied taking out the loan, you can also lie collecting the bail-out……..Hilarious
Glad to see they finally put an expert on.
Subprime bailout? $120 billion
More than 1 million borrowers may be at risk of defaulting on their mortgages. Assisting them all wouldn’t come cheap.
On Wednesday, Congressional Democrats led by Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) advocated steering hundreds of millions of dollars into nonprofits to help the growing number of homeowners who are having trouble paying their mortgage.
But economists and industry experts say the cost of a bailout would be significantly more than that.
Christopher Cagan, director of research at First American CoreLogic, says rising mortgage payments on adjustable rate loans will force 1.1 million homeowners into foreclosure over the next 6 years. He estimates the cost of paying off the debt for those borrowers would be $120 billion.
A spokesperson for Sen. Schumer says the senator is not suggesting the government should pay off borrowers’ loans in full. The spokesperson says Schumer believes a mixture of counseling and restructuring of the loans would bring down the costs of the program considerably. He says Schumer hasn’t finalized a plan, and that Schumer has said banks and lenders should foot part of the bill.
But even a partial bailout plan would cost far more than a few hundred million dollars.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/13/real_estate/subprimebailout_cost.moneymag/index.htm?postversion=2007041316