April 14, 2007

The Fallout Is Just Beginning

A report from the Arizona Republic. “The number of Valley residents who lost their home to foreclosure spiked more than tenfold in the past year as more and more homeowners fell behind on their mortgages. The problem may soon get worse. Mortgage delinquencies hit a four-year high last month.”

“‘Our economy isn’t bad, but foreclosures will continue to rise,’ said Jay Butler, director of realty studies at Arizona State University Polytechnic. ‘The fallout from the subprime market is just beginning.’”

“Last month, 553 Valley families lost their homes, according to the Information Market. At the same time, 1,705 homeowners got notices from their lenders that they were at least three months behind on their mortgage.”

“In March 2006, 782 homeowners were delinquent, but only 40 houses were taken back by lenders and sold at a foreclosure or trustee sale.”

“‘Many homeowners who bought at the peak and are now struggling may just end up walking away from their houses,’ said Margie O’Campo de Castillo of Arizona Dream Realty. ‘People who bought new homes on the Valley’s fringes a few years ago are particularly having trouble selling for what they owe now.’”

“Heather Ferguson thought she was getting a low-rate mortgage when she bought her Fountain Hills home in 2005. ‘I wasn’t a real estate expert, but I had decent credit and could afford the payments on a 6.5 percent loan,’ she said.”

“But after waiting for her loan broker for four hours at the title agency, she ended up signing for a subprime loan that started with an 8.5 percent interest rate that has now climbed to almost 12 percent. Her payment went from $980 to $1,680.”

“People behind on their mortgages are often dealing with other financial or personal problems and are in denial, experts say.”

“‘They think the Valley’s housing market a few years ago was normal,’ said Joann Hauger of the non-profit group Community Housing Resources of the Arizona. ‘Struggling homeowners shouldn’t think those price run-ups are going to return and save them.’”

The East Valley Tribune from Arizona. “Some 5,703 Maricopa County properties entered a stage of foreclosure in the last three months of 2006, a 49 percent jump from the same period the year before, according to RealtyTrac.”

“Inflated home values and the use of creative financing, such as interest-only loans, have left many owners unable to make payments or sell, Intero division manager Patti Crawford said. Refinancing frequently isn’t an option because the borrower owes more on the home than it’s worth.”

“Homeowners who bought in the $250,000 to $350,000 range or in outlying areas, such as Queen Creek and Maricopa, seem to be the hardest hit, Crawford said.”

“Coldwell Banker started new divisions at the beginning of the year, one for preforeclosures and another for foreclosures. ‘We are starting to get more and more requests from lenders,’ department head Connie Swenson said.”

“Crawford expects foreclosures to continue to climb. ‘I don’t think we’re even near the beginning of it,’ she said. ‘People’s rates are going to start adjusting. Their payments are going to go up.’”

CNBC reports from Nevada. “Luxury condos will continue to hit the market in Las Vegas as speculators attempt to flip properties. In fact, there’s more than 11,000 units under construction that have been pre-sold, largely to investors, which means they’re likely to come back onto the market.”

“There are another 12,000 units planned and being marketed now, according to Brian Gordon, principal of Applied Analysis in Las Vegas.”

“While several projects have been cancelled in recent years, ‘there is still a lot of inventory to burn through,’ says John M. Restrepo, a real estate consultant in Las Vegas. ‘Don’t be afraid to make a lower offer. There is a lot of product out there.’”

“The impact of foreclosures has on pricing remains to be seen, though Nevada has been registering the highest rates in the nation. In February, foreclosures rose 77% from the year prior with one foreclosure for every 278 households, or three times the national average, according to RealtyTrac.”

“Should buyers take the plunge now? ‘If they’re looking for housing options short-term and don’t expect to be in the market long-term, it might be worth waiting,’ Gordon said.”

The Review Journal frm Nevada. “Tammy Anziano rented a unit at Savannah Apartments last week to a woman who was looking at buying a home, but got caught in the squeeze of tighter mortgage lending requirements.”

“‘She said she found a house and put a substantial amount down on the house, but they came back and said they needed an extra $35,000,’ said Anziano, business manager at (a) 400-unit luxury apartment complex. ‘This is a woman who has excellent credit.’”

“‘What’s interesting is that Nevada has the highest foreclosure rate in single-family homes. You would think that the vacancy rates for apartments would be going down,’ said Carl Sims, apartment broker in Las Vegas. ‘In reality, it has increased from 4 percent to 6 percent to 7 percent in the last year.’”

“Sims said higher vacancy rates are partly due to new development and ’shadow rentals,’ or condominium conversions that have been purchased by investors and put back into the rental pool.”

“Sims said he checks with Chicago Title and finds 80 to 100 foreclosure filings coming in daily. With all of the investor homes on the market, renters can find a three-bedroom home for $1,275 a month, about the same as a three-bedroom apartment, Sims said.”

“Spence Ballif of CB Richard Ellis said he’s also seeing a lot of foreclosures. ‘You’ve got all the investors who bought here,’ he said. ‘We’ve probably got 6,000 or 7,000 homes out there that are being leased.’”

The Gazette Journal from Nevada. “The chief economist for Stewart Title Guaranty Co. advised Reno-area home sellers Friday to get real with pricing.”

“‘You have to sober up the seller and educate the buyer,’ (said) Ted C. Jones. ‘Your seller is like road kill, and your buyer is waiting for that road kill to rot.’”

“‘Your issue is surplus inventory. What’s not moved is a huge inventory of existing homes. What scares the tar out of me is one-third of it is vacant,’ he said.”




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152 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-04-14 06:09:05

‘Appraisers, real estate agents and loan officers are committing crimes here and may not even know it, according to a real estate fraud expert. Arizona has become a magnet for mortgage fraud, moving from 23rd to seventh, according to a survey. Some appraisers will artificially inflate the value of a home in order to justify a loan. Hagar advised the audience to fire them, because inflated appraisals can lead to overvalued neighborhoods. ‘It is absolutely impossible for every house to come in at value,’ Hagar said.’

‘Everyone expects this year to be slower and lower,’ agreed Jay Butler of Realty Studies at Arizona State University Polytechnic. As for 2007, Butler said those who have owned their homes for a number of years likely with see gains, but investors and others turning homes bought only a year ago may see a drop in price.’

‘The demand for new homes in the Las Vegas Valley has slowed considerably in the past year. What’s happening in Las Vegas isn’t any different than in California and other parts of the country when it comes to sales of new luxury homes, said Gary Mayo, group president of Toll Brothers in Nevada.’

‘Luxury resales dropped in 2006 because of what’s happening in the marketplace. If owners can’t get top-dollar for their homes, they prefer to hold on to them, Toni Stewart said. That trend appeared to continue in the first quarter. There were 132 homes and condos sold for more than $1 million. That’s an 18 percent decrease from the first quarter of 2006, said broker Ken Lowman. There is a little bit of buyer hesitancy even in the luxury market, Lowman said.’

Comment by GetStucco
2007-04-14 12:24:38

If everyone is doing it, then does it matter whether crime is committed? It is not like the legal justice system has the resources to go after everyone who is committing mortgage fraud these days — the system would go broke before finishing the job. Hence fraudsters are protected by a “safety in numbers” effect.

 
Comment by clarke
2007-04-14 12:31:48

I’ve been lurking on this blog for the better part of a year and this is my first post. Probably too late a comment for anyone to actually read this, but what the hell. First a big THANKS to all that contribute to it as I have learned an incredible amount about real estate and a number of other topics. I live in Phoenix and unloaded 3 houses in 2006 by cutting the price like many on this board suggested and I don’t know that I would have adopted that strategy on my own.

The purpose of my post is to point out that not everyone that bought a home in the last couple of years in Phoenix is effed. I’m 29 years old and my fiancee and I built and moved into our dream home in August 2006. It’s a 3800 sf single story semi-custom home on a 1/3 acre lot. I’m in a gated community about 20 minutes from ‘downtown’ (I use that term loosely) Phoenix and my house has all of the ridiculous upgrades that everyone here enjoys laughing at. I back to a 3 acre greenbelt and only have a neighbor on one side.

The house was $600k and thanks to the previous houses I owned and sold I was able to put 20% down. I have a 7/1 ARM at 6.375% so my interest only payment is about $2500. My HOA is $100 and once property taxes adjust they’ll be about $300. Insurance is really cheap in Phoenix and we pay about $50 a month. So let’s say I spend $3000 a month on my house. My fiancee and I make about $155k a year and other than our house live very frugally. Our cars are paid off and we have no credit card debt. We contribute 20% to our 401ks and save enough money each month to pay an additional $1000 toward our mortgage.

Our builder is currently selling our house for $70k MORE than we paid for it. And yes, they are still selling albeit slower than last year and 2005. They are currently offering a $10k incentive so I guess it’s really only $60k more. I don’t believe I could resell my house at that price in the near future, but it probably hasn’t dropped much if at all since I bought.

I generally agree with what is posted here. However, all too often I think many here assume that the behavior of one moron in a newspaper article reflects ALL buyers of the last couple years. I actually don’t know ANYONE that is in danger of losing their house. Many did what I did and rolled their gains into new homes and live well within their means. We all just got lucky to have bought and sold in one of the greatest RE markets in history. Not to say that we all haven’t lost equity on our current homes recently, but it won’t drive any of us into foreclosure without a big life changing event. Even then, I have pretty decent savings and so do most of my friends.

So, the purpose of my long-winded post is to point out that there are many people that bought over that last couple of years that aren’t at the extreme that is often portrayed on this board. I constantly read the statement that “everyone that bought in the last few years is F’d” and that simply is not true. Many may have been better off not buying, but that doesn’t mean they are effed.

Having said all of that, I have talked at least 2 people out of buying in the last year. Makes much more sense to wait and see how bad all this gets.

Thanks again to all for their insightful postings and to Ben for hosting this blog. Think I’ll go back to lurking and learning now…

Comment by cashedin05
2007-04-14 18:07:03

How in your right mind could you even think of buying a $600k house in Phoenix Metro? I don’t care how much you and your partner make. That same house would have been 300k just 3 to 4 years ago. You will also have to deal with that interest only thing you have going on there. What if one of you gets sick, loses a job, you break up?

My wife and I make in the upper 120’s combined and I was shaking when I bought a house for $154900 back in ‘03. I just don’t understand the logic behind stretching yourself so thin financially, I think I would have a nervous breakdown if I assumed that much debt. We are downsizing and pocketing cash right now and it feels great.

God bless you man…I hope you make it through the downturn.

 
Comment by Claudia
2007-04-14 23:59:13

I agree with cashedin05.

You aren’t paying anything towards the $480,000 you owe with an interest only loan. You need to add about $1500 a month to that $2500 a month payment to be paying anything towards the house. How many families can afford a $4000 a month house payment?

Just remember: Back when we had “traditional lending” (which it appears we are going back to) — you would need to put 20% down and you would have to buy a house that was 3X your income OR LESS. House prices are going to fall because most people don’t make over $100K a year. The average household income in this country is somewhere around $40K to $50K. This means houses should be somewhere between $80K and $150K — not $500K and $600K.

It’s going to take a long time for house prices to fall to where they are reasonable for most people — but they are going to fall. There isn’t really a choice about it. Investors are refusing to finance “fantasy” loans.

 
Comment by OutofSanDiego
2007-04-15 08:03:46

For me, it doesn’t matter if I can afford it or not…I simply won’t overpay for a product that I know I can get at a better price, including a house (i.e. I’m not going to catch a falling knife). Some people may feel comfortable at throwing money away, but I don’t. If someone pays retail + dealer markup for a new car, and another person just pays retail, he may be satisfied. I want closer to invoice. It has always worked for me and will work again as this bubble plays out. In the meantime, my house money is churning out a little over 5% interest every month with almost no risk and complete liquidity.

 
 
 
Comment by luvs_footie
2007-04-14 06:12:46

“‘Your issue is surplus inventory. What’s not moved is a huge inventory of existing homes. What scares the tar out of me is one-third of it is vacant,’ he said.”

Enter Goldilocks………right?

 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-14 06:13:07

Reno=Jones-town

“‘You have to sober up the seller and educate the buyer,’ (said) Ted C. Jones. ‘Your seller is like road kill, and your buyer is waiting for that road kill to rot.’”

Comment by passthebubbly
2007-04-14 07:29:40

What precisely do the buyers need to be eduficated about? That their 20% below list offer is STILL too high?

Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-04-14 07:35:19

It seems to me that the last thing the REIC wants is “educated buyers”. If they are educated they wouldn’t be buyers at all. They would be smug renters watching the greatest collapse in real estate history.

Comment by Neil
2007-04-14 08:27:36

It seems to me that the last thing the REIC wants is “educated buyers”.

I have to agree. Every post seems to come down to “buyers have to accept they are going to overpay.” We all know that there is no reason to overpay.

NYCityBoy,
This could very well be the greatest collapse ever in real estate…

Got popcorn?
Neil

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Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2007-04-14 08:39:11

Got ammo?

 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfruede
2007-04-14 08:45:47

Got kitty litter?

 
 
 
 
Comment by ex-nnvmtgbrkr
2007-04-14 07:31:04

Sounds about right.

 
 
Comment by House Inspector Clouseau
2007-04-14 06:30:46

I still firmly believe that few drink the kool aid as much as the fine folk of Phoenix.

I have a lot of friends who live there now, and they all spout the same Mantra:
“everybody wants to live in Phoenix!” (are you kidding me?)

“there is a land shortage” (uh, have you looked around lately?)

“Phoenix will soon be the 3rd biggest metro area behind Manhattan and LA.” (now you’re just being silly!)

“there is no water problem here” (uh, again, look around!)

and my favorite: “it’s so beautiful here” (uh, I’m always flabbergasted by that comment)

Also “the summer isn’t that bad, it’s dry heat” (hahahaha)

A lot of places can TRY to spout the “everybody wants to live here”, (Maybe LA, SF, Manhattan, DC, Seattle) but Phoenix?

Again, Phoenix has it’s plusses so I’m not really trying to knock it: it’s near Sedona, it never snows (nevermind the summer though), it has good golf courses if you golf. It’s very suburban if you like suburban living.
It’s just that Phoenix has little that is special.

It is interesting how an invention (air conditioning) truly transformed a region. without it there would be few to no people of Phoenix!

It’s the one thing of which I’m truly thankful, people in Minneapolis do NOT spout the “everybody wants to live here” BS. we have better sense than that. And no, it’s not just because it gets cold here. it also gets just as cold and just as snowy in chicago, Grand Rapids, and Madison, and they DO have the “everybody wants to live here” mentality- although not as much as Phoenix and LV.

Comment by palmetto
2007-04-14 06:38:59

“It is interesting how an invention (air conditioning) truly transformed a region.”

Same goes for Florida. Except the southwest has a double whammy, the heat and the water shortages. People might put up with rolling blackouts, but what happens if you turn on your tap and nothing comes out? Or can’t flush? We are becoming a nation where you have regions of sitting ducks, at the mercy of utilities.

Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-14 06:49:02

We are when you get right down to it…

A nation of 72 degree people.

Comment by passthebubbly
2007-04-14 09:00:25

I’m a 60-65 degree guy myself. I prefer it a little on the cool side.

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Comment by txchick57
2007-04-14 11:18:07

92 degrees here. And no A/C, no problem.

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Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-14 13:44:15

You had to be the exception… ha

 
Comment by BanteringBear
2007-04-14 13:45:40

Is your name Elizardbeth? ;o)

 
 
 
 
Comment by Michael Fink
2007-04-14 06:42:21

Don’t forget my favorite (from S. FL, but I am sure they use it there too):

The boomers are coming!

Boomer’s are apparently going everywhere in this country; with the exception of whereever it is that they are all coming from.

If that is true, houing is still going to crash in the “boomer nest areas” like FL, AZ, etc. And housing is also going to crash where ever it is that all the boomers came from (as they are going to be selling to move to my backyard).

The boomers, imho, are not going anywhere. They have famlies, homes, and frankly, not enough money to start paying 500K for a 2/2 condo in S. FL. And, if my personal experience is any guide, every boomer who has ever been here to visit me is horrified at what Palm Beach is like (traffic, pace of life, general hatred toward general man, fake, etc).

So, imho, the boomers can be chalked up as just another myth on the your list up there. :)

Comment by lmg
2007-04-14 06:55:51

“From the fury of the Boomers, O Lord, save us!”

Whooops, I think the actual quote was:

“From the fury of the Norsemen, O Lord, save us!”

Nevermind.

 
Comment by brianb
2007-04-14 07:00:24

Classic case of people not taking into account behavior.

People WOULD have retired to FL and AZ…except the price of housing shot up. So that makes it less likely that they will. Especially when their own houses in the midwest or wherever are falling in price.

The assumption is that house prices should rise in FL because no matter what the price is, the retirees will HAVE to pay it. I mean they HAVE to retire to FL, right? Well, they don’t.

Comment by zeropointzero
2007-04-14 07:14:17

Exactly - these statements were accurate 15-20 years ago, or more - when you could retire cheaply to Arizona, or find a sleepy, casual coastal town in Florida on the cheap.

What could be more depressing than to find out the only way you could cheaply retire to one of these areas now is to buy some kind of substandard condo conversion or live in a wayyyy-out part of the desert or reclaimed swampland. Hell, might as well just stay in the family house in Pittsburgh or Toledo, and spend time and money traveling to warmer climates for shorter periods, instead.

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Comment by Fresno Dude
2007-04-14 11:40:08

When I retire in a few years, I want to be a snowbird. Get an RV and travel to Yuma or Quartzsite Arizona for three months out of the year.
http://www.azoutback.com/quartzsi.htm
http://www.quartzsitervshow.com/

 
 
Comment by Michael Fink
2007-04-14 07:26:54

I agree totally with both of these comments.

Yes, the boomers would have come. Except that Miami has bascially spread all the way up to West Palm Beach, and people don’t want to retire into that environment. Also, homes have become so expensive that only a very small subset of the boomers can even consider buying a home here (even if they are not stopped by the changing demographics/overcrowding).

So, I see what your saying, and I agree. If the prices had not left reality, the boomers might come. But, as it stands, there is no way they are going to come to any of these bubble areas in force. Kind of reminds me of the uncertainanty principle in physics. We forced the boomers into a decison just by anticipating their actions. We wanted to know their location and speed at the same time.. :)

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Comment by Mo Money
2007-04-14 09:02:31

Yes, but to a couple in the Bay Area who really want to retire and don’t mind traveling to see relatives housing prices are still attractive in Arizona. Even someone who has owned a condo here for 10 years could still buy a house in parts of AZ and be free and clear of a mortgage. A southwest flight to CA is pretty cheap and you can drive it in 12 hours to Bay area.

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Comment by Mr Vincent
2007-04-14 06:44:00

Your wrong, they have Steve Nash. So there!

 
Comment by sd renter
2007-04-14 06:50:14

Don’t forget that “lots of snowbirds live here too”.

They are the smart ones. Phonix is a living hell hole for at least 4 months out of the year with the heat. Sorry, Bill in Phx. JMHO. I hate the heat.

Comment by House Inspector Clouseau
2007-04-14 06:54:40

Why do you all think the Mayo Clinic is in:
1) Minnesota
with 2 satellite campuses in
1) Scottsdale AZ
2) Jacksonville FL.

(these are totally linked, you can pick up a phone in one campus and dial 5 digits and it will ring anywhere in the 3 campuses)

 
Comment by House Inspector Clouseau
2007-04-14 07:00:03

and people forget how SHORT of a time snowbirds stay in the warm area.

Here in MN, most snowbirds leave after Thanksgiving (and many wait until after Xmas) and then come back right after Easter.

So they’re only gone 3 or 4 months total.

We’re really thinking about being premature snowbirds. (My goal is to retire early).

If we do it we will stay until Thanksgiving then move to the warmer climate, then fly back here for xmas week, then finish winter in the warmer climate.

so basically, going to the warmer climate December until April 1.

I’m becoming a typical MN transplant. I moved here out of necessity, but have less and less desire to move away, except for the snow situation (which is VERY grim IMO).

Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-04-14 07:43:07

Clouseau, you don’t want to miss the Holi-Dazzle parades or the Winter Carnival. Can the Vulcans still kiss and grope women or did the harrassment suits end that practice?

My Uncle was a snowbird. The weather in Apache Junction in January sure was nice. But the desert is so damn ugly. I don’t get the, “it’s beautiful here” line either.

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Comment by Sammy Schadenfruede
2007-04-14 08:48:16

Clouseau,

Do you or other posters have any “ground truth” insights on Duluth, MN as a place to live & work?

Sammy

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Comment by House Inspector Clouseau
2007-04-14 09:23:57

Do you or other posters have any “ground truth” insights on Duluth, MN as a place to live & work?

yes. many relatives of mine live there, and I have lived there as well in my life.

Duluth is a beautiful small town. It is situated on the tip of Lake Superior, and the entire city is a big hill. It is like if you squashed San Francisco down into a small city.

The city population is around 90,000, with another 35,000 in Superior Wisconsin (other side of the bridge) and another 25,000 or so in the outlying “suburbs” (really small cities like Cloquet and Proctor and what not).

In the summer it is absolutely gorgeous there. In the winter it can be difficult if you don’t like cold or snow.

it will often start snowing around Halloween (Oct 31) and there is usually accumulation on the ground (2-6 inches) by thanksgiving. It doesn’t melt until late March/Early April.

it gets very cold, AND has a lot of snow.

things to do there:
outdoor activities
lake activities (there are literally 100 lakes within a 45 minute drive from Downtown Duluth).
Fishing (some of the best in the world, especially for walleye, Lake Trout)
hiking and clifclimbing.
water skiing
downhill snow skiing
cross country skiing
3 and 4 wheeling
there is a yearly blues fest that is fun too.
the boundary waters are some of the most amazing places in the Earth, and it is a short drive from duluth (hence all the tourism)

restaraunts: not much. a few good ones, but mainly the chain’s (applebees, red lobster, olive garden, etc). does have a lot of great diners that cost less than $4 per person!

the city is very working class and outdoorsy. Most people there like being in the outdoors or fishing/hiking/hunting and the like. Also a lot of “tree hugger” types, but they all get along.
they are conservative acting people, but lean to the “practical” left on social issues. They believe in “welfare” but not “bailouts”. They believe in God, but also in social justice. They believe in “pull yourself up by your bootstraps’ but also “help thy neighbor”. very “Minnesota non-intrusive” if that makes sense.

cost of living is very cheap. for $300,000 you can buy a McMansion. For $200,000 you can buy a very solid house in a very nice neighborhood. For $120,000 you can buy a nice working class/starter home in a good neighborhood

Jobs are tough. the two major industries are:
1) tourism
2) shipping.

Thus, a lot of the jobs are low paid and seasonal.

There are some, but not many, professional jobs. these include:
Medicine
The UofMN Duluth
Northwest Airlines Mechanics stuff (although with NW finances, who knows)
upper level jobs for shipping and also for mining/logging
upper level jobs for some of the big grain companies (like General Mills), but these are leaving
and other smaller things.

that is Duluth’s biggest problem: the exodus of jobs (due to the loss of American Mining)

It is a very safe place. There are “dangerous” areas, but these are tame by most area’s standards.

Great place to raise kids.

schools are VERY good. Some of the best in the country.

Again, I have nothing but Good to say about Duluth, except that:
-not many great jobs (but you can survive there on a “not great” job!)
-the city is in decline with the decline of American Taconite Mining and decline of American shipping/industry
-it is very very cold there. Not like Minneapolis. It has the cold of Canada with the Snow of Upstate New York if that makes sense.
-it is a smaller city, if that bothers you.

there is no need for luxury condos there, they don’t even make sense. Why not build luxury condos for the Amish?

hope that helps!

HIC

 
Comment by txchick57
2007-04-14 11:21:20

I spent one Christmas in Duluth. I’ll never forget it. All I remember is white every where you looked. Snow up to your neck.

 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfruede
2007-04-14 20:20:08

HIC,

Thanks for the rundown. I went to Duluth on a ski trip when I was about 17, but didn’t see much of the town itself. Always heard it was nice, but bitterly cold. Not so bad: it keeps the riff-raff out. Given global warming and water shortages, it might not be a bad place to be. Also I’ve found people in the north, who are typically of scandinavian or Germanic descent, tend to be a lot more solid and more community-minded than the population at large.

 
 
 
Comment by Lionel
2007-04-14 09:19:18

99 degrees on the last day of winter this year. Refreshing.

 
 
Comment by passthebubbly
2007-04-14 07:45:42

Again, Phoenix has it’s plusses so I’m not really trying to knock it: it’s near Sedona, it never snows (nevermind the summer though), it has good golf courses if you golf. It’s very suburban if you like suburban living.
It’s just that Phoenix has little that is special.

What used to make Phoenix special was it was so cheap. Remove that and what do you have?

The Phx job base has always (since the 1980s) struck me as predicated on its own growth. There were business to be done and OK-not-great wages to be earned as long as people kept moving in, opening bank acounts, building houses and buying stuff. But the only notable corporate HQ (Bank One) got gobbled up by the Street. I don’t think Phelps Dodge has a big enough presence to count and KMG is buying them anyway too.

 
Comment by Jason
2007-04-14 10:36:49

The “everybody wants to live in Phoenix!” routine is losing a lot of steam. If you read some of the message boards for Phoenix like those on city-data.com for example, you’ll read countless posts of people that moved to Phoenix and are asking themselves why they ever fell for that lie.

The “land shortage” routine is easily refuted by driving north, south, east, or west. There’s vasts swaths of land still in the interiors of new housing areas.

And anyone who says “it’s so beautiful here” about Phoenix hasn’t been outside the Phoenix metropolitan area recently enough to recognize the difference.

Like you said, not to totally bash the city, but honestly speaking, it’s a RE agent routine to pretend like Phoenix is some kind of utopia.

Comment by Pharmer John
2007-04-14 11:24:12

It’s not just the RE agents. Half the streets here are named something like Utopia, which is not far from where I live, Paradise, Shangri La, etc. There is even a whole area called Paradise Valley out near Scottsdale. The only reason I live out here is for the schooling. And that’s done in 09.

 
 
Comment by az_lender
2007-04-14 11:47:25

Posted by Clouseau:
“The summer [in PHX] isn’t bad, it’s dry heat, ha ha”
Agree with your ha ha, Clouseau. Picture a frying pay with your brain in it. That’s dry heat!

Comment by az_lender
2007-04-14 11:48:03

frying pay = frying pan, sorry

 
 
Comment by cfoofmofo
2007-04-14 12:07:40

Also “the summer isn’t that bad, it’s dry heat” (hahahaha)

So is the heat in an oven.

Comment by cactus
2007-04-14 20:32:14

Well Death Valley CA is hotter than Phoenix. Thats about the only place I’ve found to be hotter on weather.com

Midnight in Phoenix in august the concrete driveway will burn your bare feet. Cities like an oven cooling off it gets so heat soaked all day. Should have stayed farming down here and built the city higher up in elevation IMO.

 
 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-14 06:36:37

Golf had it’s day, but now it’s a water sucking waste that can’t be justified.

Comment by House Inspector Clouseau
2007-04-14 06:51:17

Yes, I was just thinking about this.

If it were JUST Vegas being built up or Phoenix, then one desert metropolis may be doable.

however, there will soon be significant fighting about water rights to the Colorado river between Colorado, southern Utah, Arizona, Nevada, and southern California

too many people are flocking to these areas, and using calculations assuming they have full rights to the Colorado river. (or underground aquifers)

All the Great Lakes States and Canada have now agreed that we will not export ANY water to any other state or Province ever. This ruins talks that have been ongoing for decades between California and Minnesota as example about a water pipeline.

The US severely misappropriates it’s natural resources. We spend exorbitant amounts to irrigate a barren Central California while we have plenty of fertile land to grow crops through the midwest. We build golf courses in Phoenix and water parks in Vegas.

This will end very badly, but I have no idea how long it will take. (years? decades? centuries?)

clearly though, it is unwise.

I’m gonna try to grow a cactus in my back yard next winter. (here in Mpls). :)

Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-14 07:01:49

The Anasazi Indians had 2 ordeals by heat…

The 1st one lasted around 10 years and they survived it~ 1090-1100 a.d.

The 2nd one did them in~ 1140-1160 a.d.

I can’t recommend going to Chaco Canyon, in New Mexico enough…

America’s Anasazi Pompei.

Comment by BM
2007-04-14 07:28:19

Kept digging their water-cut river source deeper and deeper, until they could no longer retreive water, I believe. I had the joy of taking a course based on Jared Diamond’s Collapse book a while before it was published.

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Comment by Catherine
2007-04-14 07:37:58

I was in Mesa Verde a couple of weeks ago.
If what they went thru wouldn’t scare the bejesus out of “modern” society, I don’t know what would. And they knew how to live in the heat. We don’t.

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Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-14 07:56:34

What’s most fascinating about Mesa Verde is that only several hundred indians inhabited the place, way back when…

A picture perfect stronghold, with numerous water sources, overhangs a plenty’ for shelter from the elements, places to grow food on the mesas above~

But when cowboy Wetherill discovered it in 1879, it had the looks of a place where the inhabitants had left virtually everything as it stood, like you’d leave the house, if you were going away on a long 3 day weekend…

When it’s too hot, belongings mean nothing. To the residents of Mesa Verde almost a milennium ago, it seems they didn’t take much with them, when they left for cooler climes~

 
 
Comment by passthebubbly
2007-04-14 08:13:06

I can’t recommend going to Chaco Canyon, in New Mexico enough…

Part of its attraction is how hard it is to get there (an hour of driving on dirt roads) and how uncrowded and undeveloped it is. So please, try not to recommend it too much.

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Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-14 08:48:54

Don’t worry…

It’s outside of 98.5% of my fellow citizens comfort zone and there is no comfort food there, (or any other kind of food)
so as to make those uneasy with having to endure the unedurable, not welcome.

A good example of perfect planning by the National Park Service…

 
 
 
Comment by ahansen
2007-04-14 10:37:51

Cacti grow in Iceland. It’s not beyond the realm of possibility….

 
Comment by ljaycox
2007-04-14 19:57:09

“All the Great Lakes States and Canada have now agreed that we will not export ANY water to any other state or Province ever. This ruins talks that have been ongoing for decades between California and Minnesota as example about a water pipeline.”

This has already gone to the SCOTUS, and has been decided. A state cannot sell the water out of a river that goes on to another state. Probably 20yrs ago one of the upstream states were going to sell water from the Missouri River to the southwest sttes. The downstream states sued to stop and the Supreme’s put the smackdown on the deal.

 
 
Comment by optionedunarmed
2007-04-14 06:57:42

Permaculture principles seem to indicate that golf course communities should double as cemeteries one the boomers get a little bit older, though for the safety of the mourners, and to take better advantage of the tombstones, we’ll prob end up changing the courses into “miniature golf”. Retirees in golf course communities will be able to live, play, and rest in eternal peace, all in one convenient location.

Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-14 07:04:08

Fore!

 
Comment by zeropointzero
2007-04-14 07:25:31

“I’ll tell ya, country clubs and cemeteries are the biggest wastes of prime real estate…”

http://www.carlspackler.com/sounds/049.mp3

Hours of fun to be found here: http://www.carlspackler.com/index.html

 
 
 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-04-14 06:38:12

“Your seller is like road kill…”

That’s gotta be the quote of the week for this blog.

Comment by lazarus
2007-04-14 07:47:33

“…and the starving vultures are circling overhead.”

There, that should be the other half of the quote.

Comment by Sammy Schadenfruede
2007-04-14 08:19:52

“Starving” implies a sense of urgency. We’ve got all the time in the world.

 
 
 
Comment by House Inspector Clouseau
2007-04-14 06:41:43

“‘She said she found a house and put a substantial amount down on the house, but they came back and said they needed an extra $35,000,’ said Anziano, business manager at (a) 400-unit luxury apartment complex. ‘This is a woman who has excellent credit.’”

I wonder what the “substantial” first down payment was. I’ll BET you it was under $5,000… and she probably needed an extry $35,000 to bring the total down to $40,000 or something!

My friends were just forced to bring an unreasonably high $40,000 down payment to an $800,000 purchase. (no joke)

Comment by palmetto
2007-04-14 07:16:03

“‘She said she found a house and put a substantial amount down on the house, but they came back and said they needed an extra $35,000,’

I’m wondering how widespread the shenanigans are at the closing table. Having bought and sold a few properties in my lifetime, I have run into the situation where you get squeezed for an unexpected fee (only a couple hundred dollars, but still). If you’ve sold or vacated your residence and have the truck loaded and waiting to move in, they’ve pretty much got you by the short and curlies and they know it. So you’ll shrug and pay the couple hundred dollars rather than kill the deal and have no place to go.

But I can just imagine how much worse it is these days. Imagine a family with some children, movers all lined up, etc. They get to closing and there’s a bait and switch with the mortage papers. I suppose there’s no way of knowing the actual numbers, but I wonder how many people did do their due diligence, only to get screwed at closing. Imagine the pressure, you’ve got a moving van waiting, tired children, all sorts of arrangements made, etc. Personally, if there was a mortgage bait and switch, I would have bitten the bullet and shut down the closing. For a couple of hundred dollars, it might not be worth it, but for thousands over the life of the loan, not to mention the threat of foreclosure, I’d definitely do it.

Comment by passthebubbly
2007-04-14 07:38:52

I’ve been thinking the same thing — play hardball with the FB at closing and be fully prepared to walk. If they trash the place I want another 10% off or you can find someone else to sell it to. You need to be prepared to keep living in your current rental to do this and I presume you still have to pay off your lawyer. But in that case I’m holding a ton of cash anyway; what’s a couple extra grand for the privilege saying FU to the seller?

*I* have the power. I intend to use it.

Comment by REhobbyist
2007-04-14 09:45:41

We leased back our old house for one month from the buyers and asked for a 60-day escrow. That gave us 90 days to take our time buying another house. It’s nice to have options. Of course, the idea of moving into a rental is the best option.

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Comment by Polestar
2007-04-14 13:57:10

I knew someone who was in that very position. Lucky for him, he was already renting the house he was purchasing. He told them to change the documents to reflect the agreed terms or he would report them. New documents came within a few hours.

I like Housing Wizard’s suggestions for inclusion in the purchase contract and will absolute do what he suggests next time I buy a home.

The advice and insight on this board is awesome.

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Comment by implosion
2007-04-14 08:31:06

I did it on a refinance of my personal residence. All kinds of crap fees from the lender showed up and I told the escrow closing agent I didn’t like them. She gave me the form to sign to decline. Lender called me back next day to ask why (wtf?). Refied with another lender.

 
Comment by Sammy Schadenfruede
2007-04-14 08:45:12

I’m wondering how widespread the shenanigans are at the closing table.

When I eventually buy, I’m going to explain in no uncertain terms to any realtors or mortgage brokers involved that my real estate lawyer will be fully reviewing all paperwork with me before the sale. If the version presented at signing differs one iota from the review copy - e.g. any previously undisclosed “fees” crop up - the deal is off, period.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-04-14 09:26:21

Look, you protect yourself in the purchase contract by putting in a subject to closing a x interest rate and fees . If the lender changes things on you at the last minute you can walk . If you really want to protect yourself make a offer subject to review of loan documents 1 week before closing that is subject to your approval so there is more than enough time to back out or demand new loan docs and terms that were promised .
The reason why most people don’t back out is that they are afraid that they will lose their deposit if they change thingsat the last minute at closing . As far as I’m concerned when the industry changes someting on a buyer at the last minute regarding the loan terms and fees its bad faith big time .
Since the REIC and Lenders want to play a this bait and switch game with the borrowers it up to the borrowers to protect themselves from it . Really , how dare these people in the industry play games on a big purchase item like this .When I closed on my escrow I got my loan documents way ahead of time ,(course the docs were easy to review because it was a fixed rate ).
Don’t let the REIC push you around ,its your life and financial well being . Don’t let the salespeople tell you it’s always done this way .
If you are concerned about the moving van coming make a deal in your contract that your allowed to move two or three days after the closing of escrow, even if you have to pay for those days . Always give yourself a way out and if the industry doesn’t like it tell them to ______off .I’m sick of the cheap shot cr-p that has been pulled on buyers .

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Comment by Housing Wizard
2007-04-14 09:49:20

Protect yourself by putting in the Sales Contract that the contact is subject to the buyer getting x interest rates and fees to close or buyer has right to get deposit back . You can even make the contract subject to your review of loan documents 1 week before closing . Don’t let the real estate industry tell you that you can’t do protective things because anything is possible under a contract and the name of the game is to protect yourself as a buyer . I got my loan docs 10 days ahead of time and I was not about to close and go forward with the moving van unless I got what I wanted .
Don’t let the real estate industry tell you that you can’t do this or that because it all bs . You can do anything you want under contract rights . If the industry doesn’t go along with your attemtps to protect yourself tell the to ——- off .

I had one seller refuse to go along with my protection clauses (it was really the agent that was directing it because she wanted people to be stuck ), so I walked . Anybody that tries to stop a buyer from normal protections is not your friend .

Remember these buyer protection clauses use to be normal in the course of real estate , and its only been in the mania that buyers have been cheated in these one-sided contracts .

Comment by REhobbyist
2007-04-14 12:34:37

At the height of the bubble people competed to make the largest deposit. Nowadays, one should make miniscule deposits.

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Comment by Casa$Loco
2007-04-14 06:47:26

Just like the MSM: “Little too little, little too late.” If the MSM would have been honest about the overpriced housing market a couple of years ago these people wouldn’t be losing thier homes.

 
Comment by Catherine
2007-04-14 07:09:57

“‘Your issue is surplus inventory. What’s not moved is a huge inventory of existing homes. What scares the tar out of me is one-third of it is vacant,’ he said.”

Predicton (already made by meterologists in southwest, but I ditto): This summer will be one the dryest ever in a cycle of drought. Wanna bet on lots of houses going up in smoke, just sitting there, no air-conditioning on, nobody to report it (well, except for that guy with the gasoline can). There are so MANY more vacancies than being reported. There are entire streets in Queen Creek, AZ completely untended and unlived in. In northern AZ, it’s like a tinderbox up here, tons of houses right up to the edge of the forest.
Any fire insurance underwriters here?

 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-14 07:20:43

Zappa, Frank

“Without deviation from the norm, progress is not possible.”

 
Comment by Nationals
2007-04-14 07:22:18

‘Your seller is like road kill, and your buyer is waiting for that road kill to rot.’”

Love the quote. By rot, I take it he means be foreclosed on. Isn’t the case that most sellers CAN’T sell at lower prices. It’s not that they are being stubburn; it’s simply not an option. Many, I’m sure would like to find a way out of their predicament, but unless they want to bring cash (anyone have 100k lying around?) to the closing, they’re stuck. They paid too much for the house and now their hands are tied. I can empathize with people in this situation (though I’m totally against any kind of bailout!). It’s got to be awful.

This is why it’s going to take time for this mess to unwind and for prices to drop to affordable levels.

Since most sellers can’t sell; the banks are just going to have foreclose. We won’t see a bottom for many, many years, IMO.

Comment by desidude
2007-04-14 08:21:31

sellers should be educated that the money they bring to closing is the downpayment that “forgot” to bring when they were buying.

I read that here few weeks ago :)

 
 
Comment by Kent from Waco
2007-04-14 07:24:34

Heh…

I visited some friends in Phoenix not long ago. I can remember them commenting on how green it was and remember looking around and seeing the occasional green weed scattered about and wondering WTF??? Central Texas is a lush, green, garden of eden by comparison to Phoenix.

The other thing I remember is being stuck in stop-and-go traffic on massive freeways in the middle of the desert with no obvious anything nearby but dirt.

What I really didn’t get about Phoenix is they WHY. Most other American cities seem to have an economic purpose and logic about them but not Phoenix. What is its economic purpose?

Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-14 07:30:47

I have relatives in phx… (doesn’t everybody?)

We were there in August a few years ago and it’s the flipside of duluth, in the winter~

When it’s 109 forever, there is nary a person the streets, in the neighborhoods or anywhere you’d normally see folks~

Everybody exists, thanks to the air conditioner in their house, car and places to shop.

I noticed that the average Phoenician in the good old summertime, spent perhaps 10 minutes of their 24 hour day outside.

Walking to and from their car, a number of times.

Comment by crazyintheOC
2007-04-14 08:41:58

I remember seeing a documentary about a Japanese man who moved to Phoenix in like 1920 because his brother already lived there. He moved there in the middle of summer and he had said that he felt like he had landed in HELL-his actual word.

Comment by REhobbyist
2007-04-14 09:50:38

We drove through 105 degree Barstow in August the year we moved to California from Michigan. We had no air conditioning and I remember yelling at some poor guy in the gas station, “How can you live here?” He just looked at me like I was nuts (I probably was, from the heat.) I think people get used to it.

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Comment by passthebubbly
2007-04-14 09:59:27

You saw that giant thermometer in Baker, didn’t you? They’re PROUD of it.

 
 
Comment by Fresno Dude
2007-04-14 12:53:24

Fresno may not be quite as hot, but we have more smog.

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Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-14 13:43:01

Stand tall Fresno.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Casa$Loco
2007-04-14 07:30:53

The 5 C’s: Cattle, Copper, Climate, Cotton and Citrus. But to me it’s still a brown, hot, cultureless and crowded place to live.

Comment by Catherine
2007-04-14 07:44:57

Uh, no more.
1. Cattle…most ranches sold off in the last 25 years to developers…cattle prices in the toilet.
2. Copper….entire mining towns shut down in the 70’s/80’s
3. Climate….hotter than ever due to absence of cooling effect of surrounding huge tracts of fields….see number 1
4. Cotton….see number 1
5. Citrus…..see number 1

 
Comment by passthebubbly
2007-04-14 07:56:48

more like: concrete, costco, consumption, conservatism and californication

Comment by passthebubbly
2007-04-14 07:58:24

convalescense. that one belongs too. couldn’t think of a C word meaning “old people” in time

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Comment by baselle
2007-04-14 17:10:43

And corruption.

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Comment by bozonian
2007-04-14 08:46:16

109? That’s nothing.

In Southern California, Inland Empire and San Fernando Valley it reached 114 last year, albeit for only a few days.

I’m just sayin’ is all.

Comment by Pharmer John
2007-04-14 11:38:01

Oh it was 115 when I moved to phoenix area last August. We can compete.

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Comment by Bad Chile
2007-04-14 10:58:21

Culture is in the eye of the beholder. Originally from the Southwest, now living in New England, I could say the same things about many areas of the Boston metro area. Saugus, anyone? Looks the same as a generic strip mall in Fort Collins, except with worse planning, worse prices, worse accents, and worse traffic.

American culture is the same everywhere you go, once you realize the vast majority of Americans should cite “shopping” in a strip mall anchored by Old Navy as their favorite pastime and McDonalds as their favorite place for lunch.

 
 
Comment by 85249 is Toast
2007-04-14 08:18:14

What I really didn’t get about Phoenix is they WHY. Most other American cities seem to have an economic purpose and logic about them but not Phoenix. What is its economic purpose?

Before real estate, Phoenix was largely a tourist destination in the winter. Sure, the summers are damn hot, but the winters here are as fine of weather as can be found anywhere. Heck, the summers aren’t that bad once you’ve lived here a while, although visitors here in the summer probably disagree.

Phoenix (or the SE valley) also has quite a bit of high-tech industry as well. Motorola had their semiconductor headquarters here for several decades and was the largest employer here until the late nineties. Honeywell is still a significant employer. Intel has several large plants in the SE valley and there are several smaller tech companies there as well. Most of these are in the Mesa/Tempe/Chandler area though.

I’ll stick up for Phoenix a little as I’ve lived here my whole life, although I can certainly see why outsiders would think it’s a godforsaken wasteland, too.

Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-14 09:32:35

I’d recommend a trip to Phoenix’s majestic Desert Botanical Garden to anybody…

Comment by az_lender
2007-04-14 11:52:02

The smaller botanical garden in Superior is nice too. Boyce-Thompson Arboretum.

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Comment by bradthemod
2007-04-14 10:12:52

Nobody goes there anymore, it’s too crowded.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-14 07:25:34

Zedong, Mao

“To read too many books is harmful.”

Comment by Sammy Schadenfruede
2007-04-14 08:52:42

Not as harmful as Mao.

“Kill a Commie - For Mommy.”

 
 
Comment by Casa$Loco
2007-04-14 07:26:34

Check out this Maricopa, AZ beauty for a measly 60K:
http://tinyurl.com/2arutz

Comment by Incredulous
2007-04-14 07:39:15

That looks like half the houses in Tampa. I notice it was “built” in the 1970s, but I wonder if they meant “assembled” from scraps in the junk yard, um, front yard.

 
Comment by SKB
2007-04-14 07:47:10

ROFLMAO,

I love the property features, Horse(s) allowed, LOL, yes inside the house….uh,is that a house?

 
Comment by AZtoORtoCOtoOR
2007-04-14 07:49:04

If they would have put that on the market 2 years ago, Casey (Nightline ninny) would have bought it in a heartbeat.

Comment by passthebubbly
2007-04-14 08:10:19

and flown down to see it
and gotten $30k cash back at closing
and celebrated with dinner at macaroni grill, which would have prompted an over-the-limt fee on his credit card

 
 
Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-04-14 07:52:11

What does it say on the front door? I could see “do not….” What is the rest of it? They called it a fixer upper & handyman special. My gosh.

I can’t believe that was allowed to be put on a real estate site. Something that special usually gets snatched up by the realtors before it hits the market. My wife and I are rounding up the $60,000 right now. It might not go cash flow positive but we feel it will be a great “investment”.

Comment by Rainman18
2007-04-14 08:55:19

You should reserve judgment untill you see the neighborhood.

http://tinyurl.com/2tw4mr (google maps)

Make sure you zoom out to reveal the beauty of the surrounding area. This is truly where dreams go to die.

 
 
Comment by passthebubbly
2007-04-14 08:04:24

OTOH here’s what $60K will get you in Pittsburgh:

http://tinyurl.com/2hvo28

This is in a perfectly fine neighborhood, very close to downtown. In fact you can find OK houses for well less than that.

Comment by NYCityBoy
2007-04-14 08:30:00

But that looks like a house that you would “just live in”. I want a house that dictates to me my way of life and demands who my friends should be. That house is so 20th century.

Comment by jbunniii
2007-04-14 09:03:36

Sad but true observation: it looks nicer than a typical California house costing ten times as much.

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Comment by Incredulous
2007-04-14 11:20:18

Here’s what 1.5 million will get you in Southern Colorado. The price hasn’t dropped in a year, but the reported tax bill reflects something appraised at 1/3 of what is being asked.

http://www.ranchland.com/store/ppreview179.php

 
Comment by Incredulous
2007-04-14 11:21:37

I gather it’s snowed under much of the time, and there are no close towns, hospitals, etc.

 
 
 
Comment by passthebubbly
2007-04-14 11:40:39

What $150k gets you in Pittsburgh:

http://tinyurl.com/yuurfd

Easy walking distance to downtown.

Comment by REhobbyist
2007-04-14 12:43:53

What a neat old house. Of course, you can’t imagine what it would cost in California because the oldest houses in California are 100, not 150 years old.

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Comment by passthebubbly
2007-04-14 12:01:01

Or if you only have $100K:

http://tinyurl.com/226jk3

It’s in a very underrated neighborhood, but probably a tad overpriced. I’d offer $85k.

Comment by Incredulous
2007-04-14 14:01:57

Here’s what you get for 100k in Tampa, in one of the worst parts of town.

http://tinyurl.com/2ca3xp

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Comment by Lou Minatti
2007-04-14 07:26:51

“But after waiting for her loan broker for four hours at the title agency, she ended up signing for a subprime loan that started with an 8.5 percent interest rate that has now climbed to almost 12 percent. Her payment went from $980 to $1,680.”

I see a lot of violence coming soon. I am certainly not advocating it, but many FB’s will want retribution.

Comment by Catherine
2007-04-14 07:50:54

I agree, Lou.
I’m already hearing lots of verbal violence. Lots.
There are some pissed off road kill.

 
Comment by passthebubbly
2007-04-14 07:52:50

Four hours? I don’t wait four hours for ANYTHING. I won’t wait more than 30 minutes for anything… I’ve walked out of doctor’s offices and airports waiting less time than that.

 
Comment by Michael Viking
2007-04-14 07:59:02

Retrtibution for what? The first part of her story:
“Heather Ferguson thought she was getting a low-rate mortgage when she bought her Fountain Hills home in 2005. ‘I wasn’t a real estate expert, but I had decent credit and could afford the payments on a 6.5 percent loan,’ she said.”
states that she thought she was getting a low-rate, 6.5% loan. I don’t know about you, but if I think I’m getting a 6.5% loan and then a piece of paper comes out that says 8.5% on it, I don’t sign the paper. I say “What the hell is this? 8.5%? You said 6.5%” and then I get to the bottom of it. Everything she says points to her knowing what she was signing, and being an idiot who deserves exactly what she got. She’s roadkill.

Comment by Lou Minatti
2007-04-14 08:21:48

I agree that she deserves everything she gets. I am just pointing out that out of a pool of 1 million FB’s, an unknown percentage has mental health issues. There could be hundreds of crazed FB’s willing to commit violence against the mortage fraudsters and Realtwhores.

Haven’t we seen this already, early in the bust? ISTR a real estate agent was murdered a few weeks ago by a toasted client.

 
Comment by monkey_about_town
2007-04-14 10:32:41

They are playing word game. She may be able to afford the 6.5% loan, but they never said she was qualified for it. Another NINA loan.

 
 
 
Comment by bubbleglum
2007-04-14 07:30:41

“‘Your seller is like road kill,”

and descending on the roadkill are the vultures who don’t care where the dead meat comes from:

“Coldwell Banker started new divisions at the beginning of the year, one for preforeclosures and another for foreclosures. ‘We are starting to get more and more requests from lenders,’ department he

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-04-14 08:26:16

Vultures and condors. Speaking of which, there’s a Condor Airlines in Germany. Imagine what their passengers’ carrion luggage consists of. ;-)

 
 
Comment by Lou Minatti
2007-04-14 07:31:38

And one other thing:

“Housing appreciation has been flat or has fallen in many parts of the Valley during the past year.”

I cannot stand weasel language and I believe this reporter follows the stylebook used by the NAR. This should be worded as, “Housing prices have fallen in many parts of the Valley during the past year.”

Comment by 85249 is Toast
2007-04-14 08:07:05

Yep. A reader could interpret that comment as saying appreciation has gone from 20% per year to 10% per year when in fact it has gone from 20% per year to NEGATIVE 10% per year

 
 
Comment by Kent from Waco
2007-04-14 08:12:45

I see a lot of violence coming soon. I am certainly not advocating it, but many FB’s will want retribution.

It always amazes me how violence we actually see in this society given the extreme way in which so many people get screwed. I’m always suprised that more of these thieves and con artists don’t get run to ground and beat, burnt out of their homes or worse by their victims. Surely some of them have violent streaks.

Comment by Sammy Schadenfruede
2007-04-14 09:04:31

I can see why people take the law into their own hands. I don’t condone it, but up to a point, I understand it. I mean, whose hands in the law in right now? The whole so-called criminal justice system seems designed less for protecting the innocent and punishing the guilty, than enriching lawyers and creating employment and advancement opportunities for criminal justice careerists.

The cops here in Colorado Springs show a notable lack on enthusiasm about actually going out and finding perpetrators of “minor” crimes like breaking into cars, even when such suspects could quite easily be identified through store surveillance tapes, etc. “Let insurance take care of it” seems to be their idea of ‘public service.’

Comment by in Colorado
2007-04-14 17:15:16

Same here in Loveland. Over the years I have called the police over “minor” issues, and they can’t be bothered. All they are good for is writing speeding tickets.

 
Comment by SD_ChargersPadresBruins
2007-04-14 21:03:13

We have the same sort of clown cops here in SD. Always there when you don’t need them, never around when you need them most. For the privilege of working the streets of SD, they are getting a 9% pay raise this year. One can only wonder where the city found the money to pay for these raises. And now thanks to raises for these “underpaid” cops, the rest of the municipal unions are barking for a bigger slice of hard-earned taxpayer money. Now at the ripe old age of 26, I finally understand the resentment towards city workers by private-sector workers.

 
Comment by Paul
2007-04-15 10:02:00

The law should be in our own hands. Letting the gov’t monopolize it has meant incomprehensible legaleze and a complete lack of restitution to the harmed party. Not to mention a double standard of punishment, and the ongoing parasitic actions of the gov’t agency.

Look up murray rothbard and see what he said about it.

Paul

 
 
 
Comment by Kent from Waco
2007-04-14 08:13:42

Oops.. I mean how LITTLE violence we see.

Comment by Lou Minatti
2007-04-14 08:24:22

I wish I could find that article from a few weeks ago. Toasted buyers are already committing violent acts to seek revenge.

 
 
Comment by BM
2007-04-14 08:14:08

“Sims said he checks with Chicago Title and finds 80 to 100 foreclosure filings coming in daily. With all of the investor homes on the market, renters can find a three-bedroom home for $1,275 a month, about the same as a three-bedroom apartment, Sims said.”

Time to buy? Or were rents somehow inflated, too?

 
Comment by BM
2007-04-14 08:14:08

“Sims said he checks with Chicago Title and finds 80 to 100 foreclosure filings coming in daily. With all of the investor homes on the market, renters can find a three-bedroom home for $1,275 a month, about the same as a three-bedroom apartment, Sims said.”

Time to buy? Or were rents somehow inflated, too?

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-04-14 08:28:54

Is the coming number of foreclosures going to require a “Son of Resolution Trust Corporation” to bail out the banks? Or will there be sufficient bottom feeders with sufficient money to take these properties off the banks’ hands?

 
Comment by Casa$Loco
2007-04-14 08:33:03

Won’t be time to buy for many many moons…

Comment by BM
2007-04-14 10:40:37

All I’m saying is that is it is the same cost to buy as to rent, sounds like it’s time to buy a foreclosure. Isn’t that one of our tenets?

 
 
 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-04-14 08:37:27

“Luxury condos will continue to hit the market in Las Vegas as speculators attempt to flip properties. In fact, there’s more than 11,000 units under construction that have been pre-sold, largely to investors, which means they’re likely to come back onto the market.”

How long will risk loves be able to keep all these balls (aka McLuxury investment condos) up in the air before they collectively realize that there is negative fundamental value in vacant condos?

 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-14 08:37:55

I know a very good Howard Zinn i’d like to share with you…

Let it breathe a little:

“Americans have been taught that their nation is civilized and humane. But, too often, U.S. actions have been uncivilized and inhumane.”

 
Comment by GetStucco
2007-04-14 08:39:04

“‘Our economy isn’t bad, but foreclosures will continue to rise,’ said Jay Butler, director of realty studies at Arizona State University Polytechnic. ‘The fallout from the subprime market is just beginning.’”

Given that the fallout from the subprime market is just beginning, we are collective lucky that it has already been contained.

Comment by GetStucco
2007-04-14 08:39:28

“collectively”

 
 
Comment by jbunniii
2007-04-14 08:46:54

Refinancing frequently isn’t an option because the borrower owes more on the home than it’s worth.

This assumes that they don’t have any cash savings. What kind of fool takes on an enormous risk such as homeownership without an ample cash buffer?

 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-14 09:16:47

Your honor…

I’m the Ballif of Nottingham CB Richard Ellis and many of my clients are losing their homes, could you spare a few Spence?

 
Comment by Dan
2007-04-14 09:39:06
Comment by passthebubbly
2007-04-14 10:00:40

It can still show prior sales in AZ, right? That’s what it’s really most useful for.

 
Comment by bradthemod
2007-04-14 10:19:07

Z-estimates are too high or too low? Or are they just too accessible?

 
Comment by cactus
2007-04-14 20:23:00

Maybe libaries will be closed next, they have books in there with ideas, dangerous ideas.

 
Comment by Mole Man
2007-04-14 20:37:26

That is amazing. Not only is there no way that can stand in court, but they are begging for a RICO conviction. It is amazing that they are so corrupt that they actually dare to do their racketeering in a completely public manner involving press releases. Perhaps this indicates that the assessor smackdown will begin in Arizona?

 
 
Comment by House Inspector Clouseau
2007-04-14 10:09:03

Sorry if this is double post: I can’t see it.

ANSWER FOR SAMMY SCHADENFREUDE:

“Do you or other posters have any “ground truth” insights on Duluth, MN as a place to live & work?”

yes. many relatives of mine live there, and I have lived there as well in my life.

Duluth is a beautiful small town. It is situated on the tip of Lake Superior, and the entire city is a big hill. It is like if you squashed San Francisco down into a small city and gave it winter.

The city population is around 90,000, with another 35,000 in Superior Wisconsin (other side of the bridge) and another 25,000 or so in the outlying “suburbs” (really small cities like Cloquet and Proctor and what not).

In the summer it is absolutely gorgeous there. In the winter it can be difficult if you don’t like cold or snow.

it will often start snowing around Halloween (Oct 31) and there is usually accumulation on the ground (2-6 inches) by thanksgiving. It doesn’t melt until late March/Early April.

it gets very cold, AND has a lot of snow.

things to do there:
outdoor activities
lake activities (there are literally 100 lakes within a 45 minute drive from Downtown Duluth).
Fishing (some of the best in the world, especially for walleye, Lake Trout)
hiking and clifclimbing.
water skiing
downhill snow skiing
cross country skiing
3 and 4 wheeling
there is a yearly blues fest that is fun too.
the boundary waters are some of the most amazing places in the Earth, and it is a short drive from duluth (hence all the tourism)

restaraunts: not much. a few good ones, but mainly the chain’s (applebees, red lobster, olive garden, etc). does have a lot of great diners that cost less than $4 per person!

the city is very working class and outdoorsy. Most people there like being in the outdoors or fishing/hiking/hunting and the like. Also a lot of “tree hugger” types, but they all get along.
they are conservative acting people, but lean to the “practical” left on social issues. They believe in “welfare” but not “bailouts”. They believe in God, but also in social justice. They believe in “pull yourself up by your bootstraps’ but also “help thy neighbor”. very “Minnesota non-intrusive” if that makes sense.

cost of living is very cheap. for $300,000 you can buy a very nice home or a large McMansion. For $200,000 you can buy a very solid house in a very nice neighborhood. For $120,000 you can buy a nice working class/starter home in a good neighborhood

Jobs are tough. the two major industries are:
1) tourism
2) shipping.

Thus, a lot of the jobs are low paid and seasonal.

There are some, but not many, professional jobs. these include:
Medicine
The UofMN Duluth
Govt (Duluth is the St. Louis County Seat)
Northwest Airlines Mechanics stuff (although with NW finances, who knows)
upper level jobs for shipping and also for mining/logging
upper level jobs for some of the big grain companies (like General Mills), but these are leaving
and other smaller things.

that is Duluth’s biggest problem: the exodus of jobs (due to the loss of American Mining)

It is a very safe place. There are “dangerous” areas, but these are tame by most area’s standards.

Great place to raise kids.

schools are VERY good. Some of the best in the country.

Again, I have nothing but Good to say about Duluth, except that:
-not many great jobs (but you can survive there on a “not great” job!)
-the city is in decline with the decline of American Taconite Mining and decline of American shipping/industry
-it is very very cold there. Not like Minneapolis. It has the cold of Canada with the Snow of Upstate New York if that makes sense.
-it is a smaller city, if that bothers you.

there is no need for luxury condos there, they don’t even make sense. Why not build luxury condos for the Amish?

hope that helps!

HIC

 
Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-04-14 10:37:36

If you see a real estate deal online, it probably isn’t. An agent friend of mine got a call from a guy in CA who purchased a house near Youngstown, sight unseen, for $19,000. He told her he figured how could you lose. He’s looking for someone to sell it, and can’t find an agent to go to that area. Guess what he bought. A house in a crack neighborhood that averages a shooting every day or so. Might as well write off that $19,000, because houses in that neighborhood sell for about $6000, and only to gangs for hangouts and manufacturing. That’s the trouble with buying just from the internet.

Comment by passthebubbly
2007-04-14 11:01:12

There are many decent houses in OK neighborhoods in OH/PA/NY/Appalachia that a lot of us here could easily pay cash for. Multi-unit buildings that cashflow positive, too.

Makes me wonder sometimes whether I’m living life completely the wrong way.

But you do have to stay away form the crackhouses.

 
 
Comment by rocketrob
2007-04-14 17:55:35

That house in Maricopa - those are dairies to the NE, two of them - what a nice smell in the morning! and the evening too.

I didn’t see it on the aerial, but there is also a cotton gin nearby- Air quality downwind from a gin is always good for the sinuses.

 
Comment by rocketrob
2007-04-14 18:29:03

Ben,
I’m so late in this post you may not see this, but I just think of all the developments that have encroached around smelly, noisy, or dangerous places in the last 5 years. There are a lot!

There are three, or more, big developments, around the Phoenix 91st ave. wastewater treatment plant. If the chlorine vessel broke at this plant- many would be rubbed out. Plus the odors are forever even with good scrubbers. Homes are being built in Buckeye like crazy- near dairies and chicken farms. Let’s not forget homes near the Palo Verde nuclear power plant ( good schools), or closer to airports or airforce bases ( like in Tucson). Or in my town, does the six story mound from the landfill qualify as “scenic views” in the new development, or does the new home 100 yards from the busiest RR line in the US get a discount for the constant horn blowing?

So when are the “new” homeowners going to try a shut all these “nuisances”?

 
Comment by dan
2007-04-15 11:38:50

“‘You have to sober up the seller and educate the buyer,’ (said) Ted C. Jones. ”

You need to get sober yourself. Buyers don’t need an “education”, we need the f@cking prices to come down 75%.

 
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