Post Local Market Observations Here!
What do you see in your housing market this weekend? Repartments? A related video?
How about lower prices? “Sales volumes were mixed but median prices were lower for previously owned Maui condominiums and single-family homes last month compared with a year earlier. For single-family homes, the median sale price in March was $665,000, down 8 percent from $725,000 a year earlier. The median…is well off the record $780,000 set in May 2005 and repeated in July 2006.”
“For condos, the median sale price in March was $460,000, down 13 percent from $527,625 a year earlier. The March median was the lowest since February 2006, and compares with a peak of $649,000 in June 2006.”
Reluctant buyers? “Buyers still have a lot to choose from in the Rhode Island market. As of April 6, there were 5,647 single-family houses listed for sale through the state’s MLS.”
“Agent Stephen Danyla of Providence, said many of his recent open-house visitors seem to be browsing, and they fail to ask the serious, bottom-line kind of questions that are typical of serious buyers.”
“‘When the market was going hot and heavy … you didn’t have to do open houses; people were knocking on the doors asking to buy the house,’ Cohen said.”
Or foreclosures? “New figures show home foreclosures in Hennepin County doubled during the first three months of this year compared to the same period last year, which one expert suggested could mean the effects of predatory lending are continuing.”
“‘It’s eye-catching, and not in a good way,’ said Prentiss Cox, a University of Minnesota law professor and former assistant state attorney general who has researched the effect of predatory lending practices on the housing market. ‘These numbers suggest the problem is getting worse and not leveling off.’”
A lender in trouble? “SouthStar Funding LLC, a mortgage lender that earlier this month said it stopped making home loans, has filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy protection, meaning it plans to liquidate.”
“SouthStar listed more than $100 million of assets, more than $100 million of liabilities, and between 1,000 and 5,000 creditors in its bankruptcy petition. SouthStar made subprime home loans to people with poor credit histories.”
What do I see in my housing market this weekend? A lot of really, really expensive houses.
They’re not expensive until they sell. Until then, fantasy numbers don’t count. I can list my house for a million dollars, but that wouldn’t make it’s price expensive, just ridiculous.
Did you read the LA Times yesterday? Apparently these sellers are getting their price, lower sales volume notwithstanding.
Sooner or later we’ll realize that just because some 20th century icon says it~
Doesn’t neccessarily mean it’s true…
Newspapers are down to their last card, advertising.
Once that stops, newspapers are as done as done gets.
The internet wins, by default.
The internet wins, by default.
Thats what I am AFRAID OF…………
Here in NYC the Village Voice used to have REAL paying classified job ads….Yes you paid to advertise the jobs….and they were paying jobs……
Now they went to Backstage and Free ads, and within 2 weeks 90% of the ads in NYC are Unlimited income, be your own boss commission only crap…
Craigslist is like that too…….I get 50-60 even 70 Job “opportunities” a WEEK when i post my resume.
Then to make matters worse , you cant walk into most businesses any more because of “security”, so how do you get to a real hiring person anyway?
Yes, I agree with you. I did and unusual thing and actually called a realtor this week about a pretty house in Sherman Oaks. It was listed for 719,about 1400 sq ft by my son’s high school…our target area. It is pending with a dozen offers for just under 780k…at least thats what the broker said. Wheather or not the 12 offers are true or not(probably greatly exaggerated)there still is pent up demand for this area and plenty of GFs ready to part with their $$$.
It makes me sick. I wish I saw more supply around here. The only supply are lots of new condos and a bunch of 2mil$ mcmansions….I may never buy in this state again. But I need to stay here until my son finishes high school…4 more years.
I’m renting a lovely little house and we are quite comfortable but my landlady keeps talking about selling…which causes me unrest.
Don’t worry about your landlady, she’s blowing smoke.
Az
She may not be blowing smoke. She’s owned the house for 30 years(owns outright) and if she sells she’ll get more $$ by putting it in a CD that renting to me for 2150 per month. She’s getting older and she’s not stupid. This may be her last chance to sell at a good price. Hopefully next years prices are down.
THEN MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A SIGNED Year or two LEASE…….
The lease goes with the sale of the house, and a lease works BOTH WAYS
If the new owner wants you to move they would have to PAY YOU to break the lease……so you could make a few bucks on the deal, get all your moving expenses paid, your FULL depsoit back and maybe an extra month of “free” rent for the termination of the lease
Yes it really does work BOTH WAYS!!!
My parents have lived in West Los Angeles for over 30 years. And so did I for quite a while. I know the area quite well.
Unlike the rest of the country where house prices went up a measly 100% lets say, West Los Angeles prices have gone up 4x to 10x.
That’s right. Most of this lackluster junk was selling for 200k 10 years ago, now it’s over a million. It is totally ridiculous and this is why I continually say the Grand Finale of the housing crash will be when the reckoning comes to Los Angeles.
Reasons why West Los Angeles is so popular?
1) It’s “trendy”, though, not really. Don’t expect much. Trendy here means we have a “Pete’s Coffee” instead of only Starbucks and we have a Cheesecake Factory too. Woop Dee Doo. You have Westwood, UCLA and Santa Monica where there is actually foot traffic unlike the rest of Southern California which is vehicular only (barring a few exceptions like Hollywood). The beach is only 10 miles away though it’s virtually deserted now, not rocking like it was 20 years ago before it got polluted.
2) There is some big money here. Bel Air north of UCLA is an area where movie stars and rich multi-national ex-patriots like rich Iranians who looted their country when the Shah fell choose to make their homes. You have a small financial center called Century City nearby (Where the first Die Hard movie was filmed, and where Robert Kennedy was shot). If you buy here expecting a fresh new lifestyle, you are in for a big disappointment. The houses are oldish (most neighborhoods built in the 1920s) and the traffic barely tolerable. Everything is covered with a fine layer of soot from the freeways nearby (Where you saw O.J. driving his Bronco). The Getty Museum, one the richest in the world, is just up the hill.
3) It’s an outlying area for people who cannot afford the more expensive areas like Bel Air. Beverly Hills lies as the next city over to the east so you get a spillover from there. This has always been an area where “foreigners” buy. The falling value of the dollar makes our real estate cheaper for foreigners so there may be some of that coming into play. The area has some hustle bustle because it isn’t tract homes. It’s neighborhoods intermixed with business zones all throughout. Some people may find that appealing but it’s nowhere to raise kids. it’s just cars everywhere.
4) People think if they come to Los Angeles they’ll get a new life. Be prepared to be disappointed. The only thing Los Angeles has to offer is great weather, if you like sunshine and temps always above freezing. I don’t. It’s actually quite boring which is why I moved to Lake Arrowhead, a mountain ski community at 5000 feet in the mountains near Los Angeles.
None of the above really explain why the house prices are so high here. These factors have been here for 20 years and didn’t cause inflation before.
If you search http://zillow.com for the 90064 zipcode, find a house and display the comparables. Look at the detail on each one. Some have sales histories you can examine and you’ll see the incredible inflation that has occurred here. You will also see quite a few houses that sold for LESS this year than they were purchased for in 2005 or later so it’s not all good news here. I suspect the more interesting properties are holding their value as they probably appeal to stupid rich people who don’t mind wasting their money. The rest of the dirty houses here will spiral back down into the toilet where they arose from in the months and years to come. Another factor which keeps the sales going is the incestuous buying from people who are just shifting around. They already owned a bubble house so could afford to buy another bubble house with the proceeds from selling the first.
LA weather isn’t even warm, not by my (winter) standards. Next winter when I expect to be in Phila, I’ll take my “vacation” in the Caribbean or Mexico.
Very nice guide bozonian!
Also, West L.A is losing many of its Single Family Residences, as people sell, and builders throw up multi-unit housing in thier place - I lived on Barrington/Texas for 6 years, and in the time we were there, almost all of the small california bungalows on Stoner, Westgate and Armacost were torn down and replaced by 6-8 unit condos/apartments on the same lot.
My understanding is, that historically, West L.A was the ‘Poor Man’s’ Santa Monica - that buying east of Centinela Blvd (in 90025/90024/90064 etc…) meant that prices were lower than west of Centinela - in Santa Monica proper.
Not so now - the buildup, and the relentless traffic noise and pollution has made most of Westside deeply unnatractive to live in.
In december 2005 we moved from our West L.A apartment to (gasp) Van Nuys, simply because Barrington Blvd had bumper-to-bumper traffic all day, not to mention at least one serious traffic accident a week at the Barrington/Texas intersection.
I can’t count the amount of times I had to look over my balcony and call 911, to get some bozo, who’d wrapped themselves around the traffic lights right outside our living room window, rescued by the paramedics…
So now, in the deeply unfashionable Valley, we rent an SFR with more room, a yard with shade trees,for less money, on a quiet family street with no through traffic.
Yes, the commute to our jobs in Santa Monica is longer, and the summer temperatures are much higher than they are on the coast, but our quality of life improved immeasurably - as long as we can take the ribbing from friends and acquaintances from moving out of Westside…
speedingpullet, it sounds like you made a wise move. West LA is completely without charm outside of a small stretch of divey restaurants on SM blvd.
Patience. LA seems to be lagging the rest of California. And your part of town is high-priced, which will lag even more.
There is both white and black flight from California, being replaced by, you guessed it no hablas from down south. Have fun Californians
As I have mentioned here before, as the economy slows and more illegals are out of cosntruction work, the crime levels will get astronomical. Illegals have only three options: if they made money, then go back to Mexico and live well; go back to Mexico anyhow and beg; stay in SoCal and beg/steal. Ilegals with morals will not steal, but the majority dont even like “gringo’s”, so they feel it is their right to steal since “the land was stolen from them anyhow”, as per MECHA. So, shortly the allure of living in L.A. will greatly lessen as the crime takes off and the handful of whites, Middle Easterners and Asians look around and determine they are outnumbered. Then you will see panic-selling and people just trying to get out. Once the first studio moves, there will be a mass exodus from the Westside. Hollywood may end up miving to Canada, as many a picture is filmed there now anyway.
L.A. is the last place you want to invest. Plus there is probably a 10% chance of a depression in this country, which would be quickly followed by a race-war of whites against illegals, since many whites that would have had good-paying construction jobs have been displaced by those vary same illegals earning subsistence-level pay so greedy builders can get richer. Once things get dicey for the bottom, say 10 to 20% of whites, this thing will be a powder keg, pretty quickly. Already, there are illegal gangs that have isntructions to kill blacks on site, in Los Angeles, which has been mentioned here before. Its just a matter of time before they do the same towards whites and Asians. Again, L.A. is not a good investment.
Well, chrisusc, I’ve been in L.A for over 7 years now, and believe me, its not nearly as bad as parts of London I grew up in.
Try Deptford on a saturday night, if you want to experience true terror…live there for 15 years, and nothing much surpises you, or scares you, afterwards.
Personally, I find it a lot easier to hate people on an idividual basis than in groups.
I agree LA’s going to hell in a handbasket, but I’d be more than a little surprised if an actual studio packed it up and moved. Remeber, there’s an entire apparatus that supports the studio system, talent agencies, crews, the actual talent, film schools, etc.; I can see further decentralization, but I don’t anticipate Columbia packing up and moving to Mexico.
The LA Times is the biggest RE Shill paper that exists.
Yesterday’s business section had front page in big bold article that LA median prices were up.
Previous day before that they had the article that nationwide realtors expect yearly price declines in a article on the very last page of the business section - almost hidden.
I will NEVER pay for the LA Times. EVER. Cant stand that paper. Biggest biased paper in the world.
This is not going to change until the numbers of must sell properties is higher. We are moving in that direction. The other thing that needs to go away is the rediculous financing terms still available to those with better credit scores.
Oh, I hear you lainvestorgirl.
From my post yesterday: my ‘my search’ list from ZipRealty (L.A Westside and adjoining areas, SFR only, 2+ beds)
Total houses listed - 2012
Houses listed over $10 million - 61
Houses listed under $500K - 27
Rough median asking price - $1.75 million
Lower quartile asking price $750K
OK,this is a very innacurate bit of calculating - but it shows volumes about the psychology of the sellers here in L.A….
Over twice as many houses over $10 mill than under $500K?
75% of houses with an asking price over $750K?
Bear in mind that a considerable amount - 10 -of the ‘under $500K’ places are actually condos/townhouses that were put onto the ‘SFR only’ list by mistake.
And 6 of them are mobile homes.
So, in truth, only 11 actual ‘Single Family Residences’ under $500K - almost 6 times as many truly obscenely priced properties in the very upper end than at the lower end. Truly skewed.
This is just crazy.
Maybe we’re looking at a major paradigm shift. Like, maybe LA is just not habitable by normal people anymore?
That’s quite a softball you tossed out there, investorgirl. Normal people? LA?
Look, LA is just one of the last markets to see a decline, but I agree with other comments here that LA will eventually see one of the biggest declines of all. Prices are stratospheric, and it’s not primairly because the people who can afford these prices flock here (they do, but there are not enough of them to support the market and they don’t buy the dumpy little places going for $800K). Statistics show that California has accounted for much more than its share of exotic loans over the past few years, and there is a big concentration in the LA area. People are simply more over-extended here than almost anywhere else.
I posted the following before but I don’t think the post made if for some reason. The Case-Shiller House price index shows that the decline in LA prices has already begun! This is a much better gauge than median price of homes sold because it compares same-house price deltas.
They actually publish an Excel speadsheet of this index for many major U.S markets. I tried plotting the data for the LA area for the past year, and it had several interesting features, namely:
- The index was rising from January 2006 to July 2006. I think the rate of increase, on an annualized basis, was about 3% (which of course is much slower than previous years).
- From July through September, the index was essentially flat.
- After September, the index declined for every month from September to January, which is the last month with currently available data.
- The index for January 2007 is about 1% higher than the index for January 2006, as reported in the media. Eyeballing the graph, though, it appears that unless the index changes course in February, it will almost certainly show a negative year-to-year change for February. The fact that the index was still rising twelve months previously enhances the effect, of course.
This data does not even reflect the effect of the subprime debacle which hadn’t yet surfaced in January, so I think we can expect the rate of decline in this index to accelerate later in 2007. Of course, it will be a while before reality impinges on the minds of sellers in the region.
Prices WILL decline here. I work for a major studio, and everyone I know who bought (except for a French guy who payed $650 for a townhouse in the ghetto) used interest-only loans.
My friend who bought in playa vista and other friend who bought a $600k loft downtown are sewating bullets right now.
As gasoline goes past $5 a gallon and on to $10 a gallon, LA will lose a lot of its luster.
You’re right, investorgirl, but I do see some movement on the lower end. House in Larchmont for 669. Actual house, not condo. House in Encino 599. Small, but again, a house. House in Beverlywood Adj 625. Condo in Brentwood 367. True, 1 bedroom, but I don’t recall seeing anything in Brentwood with a 3 in front of it unless there were 6 more digits following. 2 bedroom condo in West LA for 399. Small victories for sure, but the bottom appears to be dissolving a bit.
Also, two good laughs in the RE section, which is much funnier than the funnies. 1) Ad for a house “in Venice’s colorful Oakwood neighborhood.” For those outside the know, Oakwood is the singularly black neighborhood in Venice, epicenter for the crack explosion a few years back. 2) A “green” house for sale; all 6,000 sq ft of it. If you’re that environmentally conscious, are you going to buy a house that large?
House in my hood (90048) listed for 989k. There hasn’t been a listing under 1mil here in 2 years, most are 1.1 - 1.5+. It’s a fixer, and I’m sure thery’re trying (and may succeed, plenty of knife catchers out and about here) to get a bidding war going. Open house Sun, offers due Wed. Still… it’s a start… And if it sells at or around list… there go the comps…
lol, You’re right investorgirl. That’s what I see in my market too, a lot of really, really expensive houses.
And the funny thing is, the longer they sit there, the more overpriced they look!
The same house that seemed overpriced by 50% last year, now looks overpriced by 70%. Funny how that happens ,eh?
I guess you could say I’m seeing these really overpriced houses LOOKING cheaper by the minute.
San Diego County’s ziprealty.com inventory just crossed the 17,000 threshold this morning — up by 2000 (13%) from 15,000 or so on January 31st.
I got 19,337 for SD. Why do I always get a higher number than you from Zip?
http://tinyurl.com/2lv8z4
I am selecting SFRs and condos. They also have some other categories which don’t seem to qualify as used homes for sale (i.e., unbuilt land). You can set up your search accordingly.
Hardtack is showing San Diego MSA counts as follows (matches GS’s numbers) http://tinyurl.com/ysbyde
Total Properties SFH: 12,370
Total Properties Condo: 5,540
Inventory trend line is ramping up nicely. Nationally we are at
Total Properties SFH: 1,767,315
Total Properties Condo: 492,820
I am looking forward to breaking 1.8M SFH on our tracking some time before the end of April. Trend line is flattening somewhat, but that is to be expected as the rush to list is winding down now for spring selling season.
“Total Properties SFH: 12,370
Total Properties Condo: 5,540″
Actually, those sum to 17,910 (versus 17,007 on zip). I always assume zip is an undercount, as reporting the (higher) real figure would potentially scare away buyers.
Here is a Santa Clara Ca,. (Silicon Valley) update….Last post on this was in February….
A little background for those who did not see all the previous posts….Santa Clara is a city of around 100k people….Historically, a balanced market here would be around 200 single family homes for sale….In the downturn of 1991-94 there was around 600 available….
For the past couple of years we have had extremely low inventory….Down to 45 available just awhile back….We have been bouncing between 60 & 120 for a couple of years…The last couple of months there is a definite change in mindset….The word around here now is “The Market is Slowing”….
In just the past couple of weeks, I have seen a dramatic rise in inventory, albeit, off of a low number…We are now @ 108 available….What’s dramatic is we have seen new listings exceeding sales of 4 or 5 a day for the last couple of weeks….Its tax season and that could be playing a part but I am going to go out on a limb here and make a prediction based on what I see happening around me…
I believe are market has now turned…How difficult it will get is anyone’s guess but given our pricing and leverage IMO, it will all depend on if we go into recession….If that happens we could easily revisit the early 90’s but this time with bigger declines in valuations………
Next update;….Mid June……
Thanks for the update.
Cupertino, Saratoga, and Mtn. View still seem pretty strong. I’m seeing a lot of new listings in San Jose though.
Mt. View rental market is very strong….
Tracking Phoenix:
58828 Listings 04/15/07
50662 homes 04/15/07
This inventory is at all time high? ETA for 60,000 listings anyone, anyone?
One doesn’t get nearly as much wowie in Maui, as they used to…
don’t book it, Dano.
More and more short sales and foreclosures in N AZ. I suspect a good bit of mortgage fraud as well.
Did you see the local story on the Bakersfield fraudsters (allegedlly)?
Ben, I was able to do a local search of MLS properties that are “vacant”…imagine my dropped jaw at 882 (just in Prescott area and I’m betting there is about 10% more that don’t get classified as vacant, cause the realtor is shady)…let’s see, there’s about 2500 residential listings…pretty amazing, no? PLUS, the average asking price for these vacant listings is about $400K….lots of million dollar homes vacant as well.
Even I am shocked.
New phenomenon to report: attorney in my family is working on a case where PMI is REFUSING to pay because the underlying loan was FRAUDULENT. This could be huge.
Wow! There really are layers and layers of fallout being peeled away from this housing bubble!!
HA! Strike 2 for the lenders. PMI shouldn’t have too much trouble finding more fraudulent loans out there they don’t want to cover.
BTW, what qualifies as “fraudulent” when it comes to PMI? Anybody know?
See if you can find out what their definition of Fraudulent is.
There are sooooo many houses for sale in Pinellas County, FL, and still no real price drops (at least in the MLS).
Good news: there is a waterfront community in St. Pete Beach I’ve been watching. One seller undercut all other this week. The catch? The reduced unit is waterfront and the others in the complex are not.
The battle between the 1970 buyer and 2005 buyer begins. Grandma is gonna clean house!
Make that the battle between the 1970 Buyer that has an ocean of room price-wise and wants out and 2005 Buyer that wants to be a Seller, now.
Like comparing a hack little league right fielder that plays his regulated 3 innings per game, against Sandy Koufax~
BTW, I missed an awesome photo op: there was a bank in Clearwater that had a sign out front, “BANK OWNED HOMES, A LOT TO CHOOSE FROM.”
I had my camera this morning but they’d redone the lettering.
Banks have been fighting for years to be allowed to have their own internal real estate companies. Guess they’re going to have the inventory, but the feds have said conflict of interest to internal bank real estate offices so far. Consumer wouldn’t stand a chance if they sold you the house and gave you the loan.
Hey Muggy, do you live in Pinellas County??
I have a condo on the beach I am thinking of selling, have owned it for 10 years, we live in Tampa and don’t get out there as much as we use to , just wanted to ask were I can get some selling satistics, if you would know of any besides the MLS.
Thanks
I lived on St. Pete Beach for a year. Now I live in St. Pete. I’ll probably move back to SPB this summer. I would check zillow.com to see what comps are doing.
Ok, I’ve thought about your question some more. And without giving advice, or sounding mean, what do you think is going to happen to condo prices on SPB? I’ve seen Gulf-front units listed for $200k.
Have you seen the three new monstrosities by the Sirata? Many are asking 1mil for those!! Did it every occur to anyone that waterfront 3/2 cost around $250k in early 00’s.
And SPB ain’t nearly as bad as CLW and Indian Rocks etc.
my gawd, that whole area is a gigantic steaming pile of shit and can only get worse.
One benefit of Pinellas county: even without a shirt or shoes, you can still get service - and no beach within miles too!
Inventory, per Zip Realty:
TAMPA
01/21/07 59,865
03/24/07 63,931
04/01/07 62,972
04/07/07 63,894
04/14/07 64,290
MIAMI/FTL
01/21/07 103,131
03/24/07 111,863
04/01/07 112,680
04/07/07 112,774
04/14/07 113,809
ORLANDO
01/21/07 32,341
03/24/07 35,971
04/01/07 36,105
04/07/07 36,284
04/14/07 36,493
PHILA
01/21/07 32,698
03/24/07 33,729
04/01/07 33,962
04/07/07 34,508
04/14/07 35,409
ATLANTA
01/21/07 57,620
03/24/07 65,107
04/01/07 66,929
04/07/07 67,660
04/14/07 68,689
BOSTON
01/21/07 42,170
03/24/07 45,429
04/01/07 46,298
04/07/07 46,525
04/14/07 47,979
BALT.
01/21/07 46,025
03/24/07 49,506
04/01/07 50,100
04/07/07 51,871
04/14/07 54,022
The trend is my friend!
Looks like the spring bounce is in full swing
This graph of metro Detroit sales and prices 2006 vs. 2005 came out a few weeks ago in the FP. Click the link and scroll down to the Grosse Pointes. In 2005 when home prices were falling the local realtors would keep the reporting of selective home sales “off the record” to hide the fact that prices were falling (county allows some sales to be left off public record for special recording fee). It looks like the “elephant” was too big to hide in 2006 - so home sale volume took off over 100% in the Grosse Pointes.
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070331/BUSINESS06/70331020/1017/BUSINESS&GID=uByPNKpip4VJ7SghssbuZgKZG7xOv2uU0Adl5A4z+hk%3D
If the intent was to make GPS look like the hottest RE market in the country, then they probably succeeded. I can’t think of anywhere that can lay claim to 95% YOY appreciation.
Wow. The factory town where I was raised, Ecorse, has a median of $36K. Amazing. My dad sold the old house 25 years ago for $40K. Probably factories are all gone.
So it was legal to keep some sales off the record in order for median to appear higher than it was? Why am I not surprised?
This explains a lot.
For a special fee apparently. Wonder what the original reason was?
“The Foreclosures of Hennepin County”
A see a novel that reads like history, out of this.
Zakaria, Fareed:
“The Berlin Wall wasn’t the only barrier to fall after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War. Traditional barriers to the flow of money, trade, people and ideas also fell.”
exhibit A: casey serin
I’m helpless with the giggles, passthebubbly.
A well known side effect of bubbly.
NYC is flat. real prices are 10% over last year but people want renovations. at least that’s the story in queens.
2.2 million people here and only 554 foreclosures. i’m not scared yet.
I think you need to be a little more scared, dba, especially of who is giving you your numbers:
Record number of subprime mortgage foreclosures here
By Pete Davis
Thursday, April 5, 2007
Subprime mortgages are causing a dramatic spike in foreclosures throughout the city with Queens
homeowners facing the most devastating effects.
Between January 1 and March 19 of this year, 1,223 foreclosure notices were filed within Queens,
which puts the borough on pace to shatter the record 3,625 foreclosures that were filed last year.
According to preliminary 2007 numbers [January 1 through March 19] from a study by the
Neighborhood Economic Development Advocacy Project (NEDAP), the rise in foreclosure filings in
Queens began spiraling out of control in 2006 when filings increased by nearly 1,000 from 2,666 filings
in 2005.
http://www.nedap.org/pressroom/documents/04-05-07QueensCourier.pdf
One must also consider that only about 30-thou or so homes get sold each year in nyc - it’s not a city of homeowners- it is a city of renters — so when a huge percent of homeowners go bust, it does have more severe repercussions on the city - although the real numbers may be small. Why? Well, ask why other areas encourage homeonwership — homowners stabilize neighborhoods, bring better schools, add more taxes and are overall better contributors to their communities. NYC in particular cannot afford these very, very scary stats.
http://mary.springssearch.com/Browse/IDX1_ViewRecord.asp
A place I’ve been watching for awhile (MLS 569120, on the market for something like 500 days) just had another $26K price drop. It started at $969K back in 2005, and now is $849K. That’s still at least $200K too high, in my book, though it’s a nicely restored place and it’s on the most beautiful, grand old avenue in Colorado Springs. The houses in this area (Old North Side) continue to be WAY overpriced, and are sitting on the market for months and months. Inventory is slooooooooowwwwly creeping up, but it’s like watching paint dry. Hardly anything is moving. I’d say most sellers have a dim perception the market has turned, but have a childlike faith that THEIR listing deserves a 2005 price and that good times are coming round again.
This vulture will be in deep slumber mode till this Fall, when the carrion should start piling up.
Reminds me of bozos who think that Boulder is some kind of paradise on earth and is worth an extra premium. Most of Boulder has all the charm of Santa Ana, CA.
Harpers magazine, I think, did a feature on Ted Haggard (founder-preacher at mega-gargantuan New Life Church, also digs man-love) before his fall from grace. They made some unkind comments about Colorado Springs, saying it had far less charm and culture than say, Omaha, and a higher rape and burglary rate than NYC or LA. Greed still reigns supreme among sellers here.
While it has its faults, I’ll take Colo Springs over OC any day.
What I see in NW chicago burbs is prices NOT coming down. Sick of waiting.
Have you looked at Glenview or Park Ridge? What about Arlington Heights and Mount Prospect? The sales prices are definitely down and coming down in those areas. We might be following different price ranges though. There is definite weakness in the $800k-$1M range and this has to have some effect on the rest of the market.
We’re renting in Arlington Heights… we’re looking for a bungalow or queen ann type house… new bungs coming on market are still in the $550K range… outrageous!
Impatient wife.. been renting for 6 years now! Toddler needs a playroom!! OY!
Maybe look for something that’s been 180 days or more on market or more and low-ball ‘em. It may take a few tries but there are some desperate sellers. The problem I’ve seen in a lot of cases are the desperate ones tend to owe more than their house is worth so you may need to do some research to find a motivated seller with some equity.
Well, you can get a perfectly nice 3/1.5 or 3/2 in Arlington Heights for far less than $550k. There are plenty of older (i.e. 1960’s/70’s) houses for less than $350.
These places are prefectly adequate for a family with children. I grew up in Arlington Heights. Many of my friends grew up in such houses and they were quite comfortable.
True, when I was a child there AH was a lower middle class town. But the housing stock is quite nice. We are not talking about Archie Bunker row houses here, these are comfortable middle class homes with decent yards, two-car garages, and basements. I’m told that in recent years Arlington Heights has become McMansionized, but it was a nice enough place before.
Take a look at this place:
http://homes.realtor.com/prop/1077970718
It’s an ideal starter home for a young family with a toddler. It’s modest, certainly, and has only 1.5 baths, but it’s not at all uncomfortable. You could certainly raise a family there.
This particular house might not be to your liking — I wouldn’t buy it, while that is a nice enough area (my grandmother lived almost immediately adjacent accross NW Highway) it’s too close to the racetrack for me, and I am not sure which HS it feeds into — but there are plenty of 1960’s ranch houses for less than $350k which are prefectly suitable for children and feed into Hersey and BG.
Now, you might not be comfortable with a $350k mortgage — that sort of price would certainly place an almost-unbearable strain on my own budget.
You might also feel that today’s $350k houses will sell for 250k in a few years and be reluctant to overpay and become trapped in a house that was not your first choice. This is perfectly reasonable.
Finally, you might want something nicer than a 3/2 1960’s ranch. I certainly would.
But it just isn’t accurate to say that you are “priced out” of Arlington Heights. You can get an acceptable house in a neighborhood with the very best schools for less than $350k. It may not be a nice house, and certainly isn’t an impressive house, but it’s fine for a family with children.
If I were you I’d be sitting on the sidelines, too, but it’s a matter of choice.
Thanks for the suggestions Joe, but we’re not a starter family exactly.. hubby is 51 and I’m 41.. we’re ready to be in a house we really like and can entertain large groups in. Hubby needs an office too.. pastor/professor.
We will wait a little while.
Dryden isn’t the best location.. too busy. Scarsdale is nice tho.. a bit snooty tho.
oh, and fyi, we sold a two flat by Wrigley and moved out to AH but didn’t want to buy at the top so that’s why we’re renting right now.
Got it. Wow, we have a lot in common.
Are you old with a toddler too?!
Better to be sick of waiting than be sick from overpaying.
Patience. It will happen. And it will be significant.
Some areas the “wall of price” is starting to crack. Folks in my area (North County San Diego) are generally sticking to wishing prices, but a few folks have cut their price down by as much as 20% from last year. But they are still not sold! Amazing!
I grew up in Chicago and have several times thought of moving back there, but I just can’t quite swallow the price right now. I think that sellers will have to be beaten into submission by the market forces already in play.
I think Baltimore and Washington are considered one big region in Zip… from 46k to 54k in about 3 months time (from Jan 17th to April 14th)! If that trend keeps up this we’re looking at over 70k by years end! woohoo!
Prices are just all over the place in the DC area I think. Newer listings are definitely less but still wishing prices, but some of the houses i’ve seen at least are starting to reduce under the prices the “investors” bought them for 2005. Otherwise, i’ll stick to my “all over the place” comment as an observation for this area.
One part of that area - Alexandria, Va. - just crossed 1,500 listings (1503). Was about 1300 at the start of the year, crossed 1,400 in March. Doesn’t seem like a crush of new listings — but, houses definitely moving slower, and I’ve seen a couple places go from “sale” to rent in my neighborhood. Fewer houses trying to test the upper limits of the market (fewer “wishing” prices) — so those people asking over a million for a very-nice-but-not-THAT-great townhouse in Old Town really kind of stand out as listings that you just know aren’t going to move.
In the last couple years, listings that I thought were wayyyyy overpriced often suprised me by selling at or near full price. Now, I can safely spot NFW listings - no freaking way they’re going to get ANY interest at that asking price pretty easily.
Yep, all over the place. There are two recent listings in my neighborhood, both identical townhouses next to each other. One is listed for $350k, the other for $400k. The poor sap behind them has his listed for $500k (he bought for $465k 2 years ago). Although the one listed for $500k is a different model, they are roughly equivalent is square footage and amenities, so there should be no more than a 10% difference.
It took me a while to stand back and digest what that means: One townhouse is priced at 70% of the price of the other. Holy crap, that’s gotta hurt.
This is in Loudoun county VA.
But it’s not just Loudoun and the exurbs: you can find wild price spreads in Alexandria and Fairfax for conds, townhouses, and detached SFH. Having said that, this is the widest price spread I’ve seen so far, but I’m sure this is just the beginning.
I checked Zip for a small town in Florida. They show 271 houses/condos for sale. Other florida realtors’ sites show 444. Is Zip showing everything?
“Is Zip showing everything?”
Not sure how to check, but my guess would be “no.” They have a vested interest in underreporting the true inventory figures, as their constituents (realtors) would sell fewer homes if they told the full truth.
The banks and some sellers are starting to cut prices in the northern Chicago suburbs (not yet in the North Shore or city, but soon those areas will have no choice because of the inventory issue.
Here is an example from Park Ridge. Park Ridge is a nice, middle class suburb of Chicago. It is not the North Shore (where many affluent Chicagoans live), but this house is in the best area of Park Ridge.
http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/home_detail.jsp?listing_num=06402529&page=2&property_type=SFR&mls=mls_chicago&cKey=f5rvjl52&source=MLSNI
purchased in Oct 2005 for $860k with 100% financing, lis pendens May 2006 (did they even make a payent?)
purchased in 2000 $479k
purchased in 1993 for $315k
now listed just below $750k
Looks like the bank (MidAmerica) is going to take a big hit on this one.
(not yet in the North Shore or city)
Wrong! Stuff is absolutely softening in 60610 and 60611. A 1br with a high floor and a lake view at 1400 LSD just showed up for $249k. Haven’t seen anything like that in a long time.
MLS# 06465146. It’ll probably sell in a few days, but stuff like that has been showing up a lot more recently. Garden-variety 1br condos (not just junior 1brs) are showing up under $200k again.
Well that’s good news. I have been following 60614 and I’m still seeing an upward trend in sales price. Hopefully the pain will spread there.
There’s a reason Trixies and Chads have the reputation they do.
I’ve never really been a 60614 guy. I moved from 57 to 10 several years back and wouldn’t want to live anywhere else in Chicago. It’s not much more expensive, either.
There’s a reason for the low price, and its pretty much confined to this building and a few similar ones in the area. It was a rental building that underwent a shoddy condo conversion a few years ago and the units are not at all desirable. For example, the kitchens have the same 1950s original floor plan (closed-in and claustrophobic feeling). The apartments are very small and don’t have much going for them other than the view. I’ve also heard very bad things about the building management (I live nearby).
At that price, they would have been snapped up in no time if they were any good, but they’ve been for sale for at least a year now. They are primarily marketed as “investments” but that’s kind of a hard sell since the rents would not come close to covering the expenses. I predict this building will have no choice but to revert to rental, as they are already renting out a number of units just to get some cash flowing in.
Chicago Area Listings:
Cook County = 50494
DuPage County = 10016
Kane County = 7238
Will County = 7413
Lake County = 8529
Kendall County = 1984
McHenry County = 4297
Also, I’ve gotten pretty far on my Google MyMaps showing the high-rise construction craze for Chicago over the last few years. The link is here. I have pretty much every building over 12 floors tall mapped out that was built since late 1999. I also have almost all 12+ floor buildings that are currently under construction in the city (I’m missing about 15 right now). I don’t have any that would fall into the category of site prep, demolition, advanced planning, etc. My hope was that you could sort all the markers based on their color and type (since I marked each building based upon type and whether it was under construction or finished), but so far Google doesn’t let you do that. Anyway, here’s the link (and be sure to scroll through the pages - there are 4!)
Google Link
Wow, fantastic piece of work!
Having lived on a 35th floor west view unit, I love being upstairs with a view. It was a west view, but that was best in the summertime. Used to turn off the lights and night and watch the thunderstorms roll in over the city - far better than watching TV.
I have a west view now on a moderately high floor. I think lake views are overrated — you better have thick curtains or you wake up at sunrise. The purple/brown line El looks like a little toy train going by, and the sunsets are quite pretty. Most of Cabrini is torn down now, too.
I have a 14th floor west view right now. I’m in the West Loop so I have virtually nothing blocking my view to the horizon. On clear nights I can watch planes land at both Midway and O’Hare.
On the 4th of July, we like to turn off all the lights and watch 15-20 suburbs have their fireworks show simultaneously. It’s surreal.
I’ve seen the fireworks too. I’m usually out of town over the 4th, tho.
My old office had a 39th floor west view. I used to tell people I would watch the west side burn. Unbelievable how many fires I saw.
In Lancaster/Palmdale Ca. the builders won’t lower prices but keep raising incentives. $20k on $300k homes, $40-50k for houses up to $500k. I had a salesman tell me it would be to my advantage to pay more because it would make my home more valuable in the future.
“I had a salesman tell me it would be to my advantage to pay more because it would make my home more valuable in the future.”
HA! That’s a new one. Another advantage—it’s less likely that the neighbors who overpaid for their house will egg yours.
Things still moving south of Syracuse. Several pricier homes with lake views were sporting SOLD signs this week after sitting all winter.
My Chicago bound friend had people asking to see her home before she even put it on the market….again lake views, professional neighborhood.
As far as the sitters (sellers w/large dom), nobody and I mean nobody is dropping prices even though they’ve been on for a year or more. Go figure!
One home that was very smartly priced sold in 10 days (somewhat quirky historic home, nicely redecorated, $299k for 4000+ sq ft). The five on the same street that have sat all winter should take notice. Some are not much more than half the size, not in the same shape and are asking close to same price.
Inventory of houses below $600K in Morro Bay is smaller than last fall. I have no analysis.
92627: wishing prices are still much too high. I am seeing more signage and more advertisement in the form of pamphlets and “magazine” type drop offs.
There are 322 properties listed on realtor.com for this zip. Sign spinners are still at it for Richmond Homes Bungalows on Bay St.
Here on the “Space Coast” of Florida, every other house is for sale. I’ve already lost one neighbor to foreclosure, and another few are close to the edge. Only the insane are buying, and the rats are jumping ship.
In the summer of ‘05, the previous owner had this house (built 1964, 1750 sq ft, 3/2 w/ pool near the ocean) listed for $400k. I bought in Aug ‘06 for $270k (zillow claimed it was worth $310k at the time). As of last month, zillow has lowered my “zestimate” to about what I paid. I expect prices to bottom out at $230-$250k, maybe as early as next summer. Keep in mind, I’m not as pessimistic as some of you, but I try and stay realistic.
My total monthly payment (30 yr fixed @ 7.37 w/ insurance and taxes, 100% financed) is about $2400. The rental market is bizzare. This same house would rent for $1000-$1500 per month, but only for a 10 month term (most local rentals are vacation homes that are already paid off). Rentals also compete with hotels, timeshares and a plethora of other schemes.
This dump has a few advantages: my community was built in ‘64, so each of these houses are solid cement bunkers with a 40-year track record. The beach is 3 blocks in one direction, the river 3 blocks in the other. Land is scarce and already developed so the builders leave us alone. I am also proud to say that my local government has been insanely protective of the beach, and quick to toss out new condo developers in favor of more public parks. About 1/4 of our beachfront is still raw land (EPA protected), another 1/4 is public parks, and the rest (50%) is giant condos/hotels/resorts (like everywhere else).
Most of my neighbors are retired military, 60+ years old, or young families 25-35. Very few flippers, most people have either a) retired here with no expectation of selling but got sucked up into the “refi” craze and are now overextended and screwed or b) come here to buy a fixer-upper, start a family, and live for 30 years (or until Global Warming drowns us). I fall into the second category, so I can still enjoy the beach even while I lose between $30-$80k in equity.
One advantage to Florida is that the local economy sucks, which keeps consumer prices pretty damn low, especially coming from Long Island. Gas is currently about $2.80, and rising, but $150 at Walmart still gets me and my fiance 2 weeks worth of name-brand groceries. $20 bucks is enough for a decent lunch for two, $60 covers a dinner out with drinks. Home improvement is becoming extremely competitive, which benefits a tactful haggler. For example, we are replacing 1/2 of our windows with premium, double-pane, EE windows for about $5k installed. Sears wanted $15k for this same job about 7 months ago.
The bottom line: as a freelancer who is not dependant on the local economy, this situation is ideal for me. However, I paid a $30-$80,000 “lack-of-patience” tax because I couldn’t bear waiting another 1-3 years to buy.
Homes in my area (zip 92026) are not really moving. In my local little area (near the Escondido Country Club) there are 2 houses with “sold” signs on them, and have been since February. I am curious to see if they made it in before the lending guidelines changed. In all there are probably 20 homes out of 100 or so on the market in this area.
In addition my neighbors house to the east is now vacant. He owns it, and moved out in October - I think to move in with his new wife. He had renters for a while, but they are gone too now. I wonder how long he is going to put up with that aligator eating his income.
Neighbors to the west are holding on somehow - god love em. This is a family who immigrated legally to the US from Mexico. They have 4 kids, 2 of them teenagers. I think they must have bought for around $300K or $400K. Everyone (besides the two wee children) in that house works, and works very hard. I know they are streched thin on money, but they are doing everything they can to make it work. While I applaud them for giving it a huge effort, I pity their having to feed that kind of mortgage for what should be no more than a $200K house.
Breaking news from Montana. I have just been Informed by my brother’s inlaws, who have been operating an excavation business sinces 1970, new construction at Big Sky has practicly stoped. Big Sky is a ski area/resort community south of Bozeman. I have been told that there is a huge inventory of spec-homes and condos at Big Ski. Also there are two development that have basically failed. At one of these failures the inlaw’s firm built the roads, put in the utilities about three years ago. They have not been payed and are presently trying to enforce a lien. The developers have been unable to sell he two homes that have been built out of the dozen they planned on. The whole project has been stalled for over a year.
Thanks for the report, Duane…
Did Big Sky get any of the fires from last year?
What part of Montana burned? I love Livingston, but those prices…!
There was a fire near Big Ski last summer, on the other side of the ridge. Most summers there are fires all over the state. Thats just normal.
“At one of these failures the inlaw’s firm built the roads, put in the utilities about three years ago. They have not been payed and are presently trying to enforce a lien.”
This is also part of the answer to people who ask, why are they still building. It’s not only builders getting loans from banks, but its also the sub-contractors “loaning” their work to the builders as well. Everyone at every level has gone into debt to fuel this speculation.
Thanks Duane! Keep those reports on Bozeman/Big Sky coming.
Oh, but I forgot. “Big Sky is too desirable a place for RE values to ever go down,” he said with a derisive smile.
In Jamaica Plain, a neighborhood south of Boston, an area that had many three-families homes turn condo, I have seen prices come down. In 2005 and most of 2006, there were no 2 bedroom condos that were less than 300k. Now, there are a couple listed at less than 200k, and about 2/3 of them are less than 300k. Inventory is creeping up slightly.
Wow! Check out this bearish RE agent’s market report of Meridian, ID:
“This exploitation fueled by the meteoric growth of formerly affordable housing by investors & buyers from 2004 - 2006 has led to an oversupply of building lots and inventory in 2007 as the investor market has collapsed due to the inflation of property prices compared to the lack appreciation in rental prices.”
“Meridian currently is experiencing an oversupply of homes in the price range of $250,000 to $500,000. Sellers have been offering incentives and discounts of 5% to 12%+ to try and unload inventory accumulated in 2006. Depreciation does not seem to be deepening, rather just continuing at about the same discount rate seen since September 2006”
http://realtytimes.com/rtmcrcond/Idaho~Meridian~dalealverson
Report from Meridian ID (near Boise).
More of the same: Inventory is up and sales are down. According to Intermountain MLS, newly constructed home sales in Ada County is down an incredible 53% in Q1 2007 vs. Q1 of 2006. I’d like to how a RE broker can spin that one!
An interesting observation has be RE Agent “churn”. A house down the street listed with Remax at 309K, then after a month, it was listed with Help U Sell for 312k. A builder in the neighborhood went through 2 RE brokers, then tried FSBO, and is now back to yet another RE broker. I think people are getting impatient when a RE agent can’t find them a buyer at their wishing price.
Still following a development of townhomes in Potomac, MD — a fancy suburb of Washington DC. Whats amazing is the spread between the highest and lowest priced ones. These are essentially identa-homes.
Five homes listed as of 4/14/07
1. $725K (drops: 815->799->775->725)
2. $750K (corner lot)
3. $789K
4. $825K (corner lot)
5. $845K (corner lot)
Spread: $120K
These homes sold five years ago for about $400K.
In prime Miami neihbourhoods (Pinecrest, Coral Gables etc), the prices are still above 2005 level, and there are plenty of sales (though the inventory is either flat or slowly rising).
I was following one house on Pinecrest edge - 2200 sq. ft for $659k (down from $699k). Just yesterday it went inactive on ziprealty, perhaps they got an offer. The house was built in 2000, and the owners paid 245k for it.
It’s very frustrating here in Miami, the prices are sticky and don’t budge. They are still nowhere near 2004, and I don’t think they will ever get there. Either inflation or some tax cut from Tallahassee will cause another spike.
New phenomenon to report: attorney in my family is working on a case where PMI is REFUSING to pay because the underlying loan was FRAUDULENT. This could be huge.
My guess is that any loan in which the borrowers lied on their application could be considered fraudulent. Those are legal documents signed by the borrower.
It’s just like applying for a job. Lie on your job application and your boss can can you later without recourse. Having worked in government where it is generally difficult to fire people, I know that HR people sometimes pour through the original job applications of people they want to get rid of looking for inconsistencies. Got a felony conviction that you didn’t disclose? Grounds for dismissal.
So how many people out there have lied on their loan applications? Millions?
The home section of this morning’s Union Tribune in San Diego, was full of foreclosure stories. The reason given for the plight of these “poor victims” is always :
1. Poor Credit Rating
2. They did not understand the terms of their loans.
3. They cannot afford the reset costs of their loan (see #2)
4. They were ripped off by their lender and taken advantage of.
The following reasons are Never given.
1. Prices are way too high and lenders loaned far to much money.
2. The buyer speculated prices would continue to rise, and planned to simply live off of the rising equity they could borrow off of.
3. Borrowers desparate to get into a house lied on their application.
4. With prices as high as they currently are, virtually no one can afford to buy.
New phenomenon to report: attorney in my family is working on a case where PMI is REFUSING to pay because the underlying loan was FRAUDULENT. This could be huge.
My guess is that any loan in which the borrowers lied on their application could be considered fraudulent. Those are legal documents signed by the borrower.
It’s just like applying for a job. Lie on your job application and your boss can can you later without recourse. Having worked in government where it is generally difficult to fire people, I know that HR people sometimes pour through the original job applications of people they want to get rid of looking for inconsistencies. Got a felony conviction that you didn’t disclose? Grounds for dismissal.
So how many people out there have lied on their loan applications? Maybe in the millions?
Of course, this is seldom if ever given as the reason these loans are failing to begin with. I suspect in recent years almost all loans are fraudelent in terms of reported income, since it is clear that almost no one would have qualified had they told the truth. So in there cases, PMI is probably not worth jack. At one point there was an “everyone is doing it” attitude, and lenders must have known the numbers were fabricated in most cases. Why else would they have dropped the income verification requirements? Hell I remember back when even to buy a car needed a couple of paystubs or god forbid you were self employeed, two years of tax returns and pristine credit.
I suspect in recent years almost all loans are fraudelent in terms of reported income, since it is clear that almost no one would have qualified had they told the truth. So in there cases, PMI is probably not worth jack. At one point there was an “everyone is doing it” attitude, and lenders must have known the numbers were fabricated in most cases.
Nonsense. I’m sure the majority of normal borrowers in normal markets were very meticulous on their loan apps. My wife and I got our most recent mortgage in May 2003 and it was a normal app where we gave them our 1040 and everything else. We had a high FICO and qualified for almost twice what we ended up borrowing. I don’t think we were in any way unusual. I doubt any of my neighbors lied on their apps either. They are all professional types with good incomes and this being Texas, houses are pretty cheap.
If you are talking about subprime then maybe. But in the normal loan market?
If you are talking about subprime then maybe. But in the normal loan market?
I think the point is that subprime WAS the “normal” loan market.
You are probably correct on a nationwide basis. I actually meant to conditionally add in bubble areas where prices have diverged from incomes by a wide margin. I am certain there are 2 doctor households buying in areas like San Diego, but with a median price of around $500K and a median income of around 60K this tells me someone been lying through their teeth in many cases. I refer to any low or no doc loan which it is my understanding drive these markets.
do you have a link to that san diego tribune story?
thanks
I get the paper delivered, so these articles were in the home section. I took a quick look on their site, but cannot see any sign of them.
I’ve been on vacation in Hawaii (Kauai) all week. My first time trip to the islands. The best parts, in my opinion, are Kilauea, Princeville, and Hanalei. There are a fair number of ocean front homes for sale in those areas - enough for a person to have good choices. Yet prices are probably still too high. Beware the 1992 hurricane that struck Kauai had winds over 220 MPH and every structure on the island had damage. Paradise is a great place to visit but nature has a way to make you humble. Some average houses are going for $650,000 and up on the island. If you never want to see snow again, this island could be for you.
Hawaii is the best place to vacation - only place I can really relax. But to buy, not so much. Have a great time, Bill, catch a wave for me.
Homes not selling in Columbus Ohio. With Columbus wages, only a few can afford homes that cost more than $150K.