Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For April 17, 2007
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For Illegal Immigrants, Housing Slump Takes Toll
Hispanic immigrants took 60 percent of the million new construction jobs created from 2004 to 2006. Those recently arrived took nearly half……
Angst in affluent America, Part 2
CME Housing Futures and Home Price Forecasts
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/
“Those who arrived since 2000 — who are likely to be unlawfully in the United States because they had virtually no way of immigrating legally — account for an estimated 7 percent of the construction work force.”
I call this horses***. I can’t speak for other parts of the country, but in Texas I’ll wager that the number of Mexican workers in construction, legal and illegal, is close to 100%. I am not saying that is good or bad, I am simply stating a fact.
At the same time, people who would have gone into construction work 20 years ago as career ended up being loan officers.
How calloused are your hands?
Lou is spot on…Friends and I have discussed this at museum for the past 5 or 6 years…..The illegals have infiltrated every phase of the construction process (INCLUDING) the once safe spot of electrical…The only place left in the trades in my opinion is “Commercial”, particularly government contracts, and as a sole proprietor tradesman….The illegals have “Gutted” what was once a stable and predictable career for the average Joe….
I bailed in the early 80’s. I saw what was coming and changed careers. Now I’m a gubmint employee.
You discussed it at a museum?
I think he meant “ad nauseum” but not sure where “at museum” comes from that.
I once heard a guy say “modest operation” for “modus operandi”. Just saying.
Got 10% down?
I agree, everybody I’ve seen on a construction site or rehabbing brownstones is hispanic. You never see a white or black face.
The NYTimes has an agenda on illegal immigration..yesterday was a cheerful report on how many illegals are filing taxes in anticipation of amnesty. Where did they get this “estimated 7 percent”?? And that nice phrase “vitually no way of immigrating legally”?. BS.
Anyone who uses or used illegal labor in construction is a gyp artist and they gyp their customers with shoddy product.
Im not so sure. A Lot of Hipanic labor is quite skilled in many facets of construction. As a former Roofing, Painting, and Framing contractor, I can honestly say that the skill set that many Hispanics possess are superior to those exhibited by American counterparts. I say this because most trades in general are a dying art in the US. Young Americans do not want to become a Journeyman in any particular trade. They all think they are destined for fabulous “do nothing” technical or management positions.
I would gladly pay a Hipanic or other skilled Journeyman a living wage to perform his craft. I am quite sure I’ll get plenty of negative responses to this post, but I simply do not witness young men and women of caucasian/American decent engaging (in mass) skilled tradesman positions.
Please note, this is not a justification for the evasion of taxes. Its simply my take on skill-sets.
Not true. Mexican construction workers that I know and use do amazing work. I have a guy that can do plumbing, electrical, framing, drywall, anything really, and even fix my kid’s bicycle for no extra charge, and he’s a real perfectionist. When you hire a white guy, it’s always “I only do plumbing, you have to hire a drywall guy to do patch up”, then the drywall guy refuses to paint, so you have to get a painter, too. It takes 10X the time and money. They’re a bunch of complaining primadonnas.
Unfortunately lainvestorgirl is correct. White guys don’t get hired much due to either being too expensive/primadonna’s and they have high rate of being druggies. And if you hire one half the time they bring a truck of illegals anyway and you just paid ‘top dollar’ for ‘experience’. Its just the facts.
I was puzzled when I heard the statistics on KPBS on the way home. So the IRS has the address of the taxpayers and know they are in the country illegally, but obviously they can’t pass the information to the INS…..? Or they have been told not to? Apparently you can get a taxpayer ID, if you don’t have a SSN?
Sure, they could pass it on. The SSA and IRS have long had this ability, but they take in a LOT of money from illegal immigrants and have no interest in turning off the spigot.
Both agencies know full well that if they “helped” we’d still have the same damn immigration problem. And less money flowing into the government bank accounts.
By the way, there are plenty of legitimate reasons to not have a SSN - the taxpayer ID is not an illegal-only ID number.
It is illegal for the IRS to pass on this information. Law makers decided on this trade off (better to have taxes from workers who are here illegally than to give them a HUGE incentive to work entirely off the books). If you don’t like it, talk to your representatives. The agency can’t do what it isn’t allowed to do.
So if we could get sales tax from drug dealers would it be OK?
Sometimes I’m amazed at the double standard, like: there are countries with good dictators and countries with bad dictators. Some of them we even put into power (or help with weapons, chemical warfare etc like we did with Saddam in the 90’s).
Al Capone was jailed for not paying income tax. You can kill, steal, corrupt and pimp…but NEVER screw the IRS.
But what if your IRS audit agent is really cute?
It is amazing how much effort goes into solving the immigration issue here on this housing bubble blog!
The biggest reason that tax information is not used for sweeps is that the illegals have often moved on by the time the tax information becomes available. That makes it impractical to use directly. To the extent illegals stay in one place for a while there are a variety of other more practical and effective means to track them down. This is how the sweeps such as those at the meat processing plants have been going on.
Seriously, all of this is fully documented by your government using your tax dollars, so why not go look up the planning and procedures being used for mass arrests of illegals and not bring all that to this blog every day? The code name for the project to round up illegals is “Endgame”. Just a suggestion to try to keep the heat on this bubble.
The housing bubble and immigration issues are very closely related.
In So Cal, many nice, mixed neighborhoods became almost entirely Latino during this runup.
Additionally, we’ve seen the trend of SFHs being converted to flop houses for multiple families who can pay high prices because they are using the incomes from five or more adults instead of one or two income-earners.
I think the Latinos were really preyed upon by the lenders because they tend to be more naive and trusting than their American counterparts.
Immigration one of the most important topics where economics and politics are concerned. And if you think econ & politics aren’t related to housing, you’re not doing your homework!
I really don’t know the answers to the immigration issue, but have you actually read that Senate “amnesty” bill? Nearly every single piece that the newspapers and talking heads were up in arms about applied only to young adults that came to the US as children, dragged here by their parents. Jesus, it’s not like these kids chose to break the law and come here illegally. I think it’s pretty decent of us to offer them a break, especially since the law also said that to get these benefits they had to have received a high school diploma, not developed a criminal record. AND, they would get permanent status only after either joining the military or being pretty far along on a college degree.
The law was hardly egregious. But on the other hand, apparently the misleading news reporting increased payments to the government, so I guess it has a benefit!
Most of those kids are Mexican citizens. Its not like they don’t have a place to go back to.
That’s true; doesn’t mean we can’t be nice to them.
I fyou want to pay for their education, healthcare and food stamps, be my guest.
A buddy is a National Park Ranger and he sees a lot and we speak freely and tells me what he knows…
The Hispanic populations tend to barely get up into The High Sierra and like to camp at lower elevations, family style car camping and no rv’s or other boxes for them. Tents, and an elaborate setup, might be a mosquito’ed in dining room, to ward off encounters during dinner, when the mosies are @ their worst.
They do it for $453.34 for 5 days, for 9 people and you do it for $51,243.56 for 5 days, for 2 people.
One bit o’ knowledge I gleaned from him, was about all the Hispanic “tweener” kids he sees.
Their parents were from Mexico and have been here 15 or 20 years and the kids grow up adoring all things Mexican, although they’ve never actually been south of the border.
They barely speak their native tongue anymore and don’t “quite” fit in, here.
The few that make their way down to Mexico are strangers in a strange almost native land, with completely different cultural mores, than what they are used to.
Awkward.
M. A. Insane,
I’ve been backpacking since toddlerhood and I’ve spent a fair number of years living in ski resorts all over this planet. But even in Aspen, Gstaad, Davos, I’ve not managed to spend 10K a day for two. A family of say, five, maybe– including front cabin air fare. Pray tell? Does your $51,000 figure include the cost of a use-once, then-dispose-of-responsibly RV? Or are you “camping” in the casinos of Tahoe?
I’ve never seen a depreciating asset, the likes of a rv…
If you put your ear close enough to the side of one of em’, you can actually hear it devaluing~
Of course he’s referring to the American need for a huge RV to camp in, complete with TV dish and generator and barbecue and lawn furniture. People use them for a week or two each year and then park them. They’re expensive totems that remind them of that alternate life of freedom they only get to live a week or two each year because they’re indentured for the darn things.
jmf:
Across the American Southwest and all over the country as well…
There are 2 worlds. The Hispanic World and everybody else’s world.
Sadly, these 2 worlds know oh so little about one another.
This seemingly supports the point made here a while back, that the government-reported increase in unemployment will be way too low, because they don’t count all of the illegals.
Chip,
You are 100% correct. But while their employment doesn’t count, their spending does.
This is going to be like many previous recessions; the bottom will feel the pain for a long time before the middle will even own up to it.
Neil
But the President says they are doing the work Americans don’t want to.
I guess I didn’t want to spend those 12 years working construction.
Not for less than $10 an hour. I know more than a few people who were displaced out of construction jobs by illegals who work for half the pay and no benefits. One guys wife was a loan officer. I magine that he must have followed in her footsteps.
And I guess I didn’t want to spend my own money and my spare time getting construction training at the local community college.
Why not get paid to learn a trade on the job? OTJT is far superior to CC training.
” He got a mortgage and bought a home in the United States. He bought land and built a house in Mexico.”
I met two guys like this in San Jose,and blatantly said he took his equity to buy his Mexico home. He said when the SHTF I’ll just retire down south…Just like the jobs #, I think there will be a shadow foreclosure # larger than the pundits expect..
Many years ago I read a book and can’t remember the name of it, sorry…
The book was on Mexico-American relations and the one thing that struck me, was how the average Mexican living in Mexico views the United States?
The average Jose thinks that America is the land of opportunity, but somewhat lawless and the grandiose hopes of bettering oneself push them ever upward towards us…
One of the things that Mexico is really down on, is handguns.
If you were to have one on your person, upon crossing south of the border, the consequences might be harsh for you.
The Mexicans have a much more recent Civil War to remember, than us.
The weaponry was oh so advanced by 1913~
“El Norte” is as good of a glimpse into the travails of a later day immigrant.
One of the finest movies of the 1980’s~
I lived 12 years in Mexico City. While legal handgun ownership is indeed restricted, that has not stopped the average Mexican from owning one.
FWIW, until the 1980’s, Mexico was a relatively safe place to live. This is no longer the case. Violent crime is so high now (especially in Mexico City) that people don’t stop at red lights out of fear of being carjacked. Muggings are common place. Sometimes a gang of muggers will board a city bus and mug everyone on board (heaven help you if you don’t have any money or valuables on you on you). A firend of mine was beaten in public in a subway station just to have his watch stolen.
I never said it wasn’t a bonafide 2nd world country…
Crime comes with the territory~
Any one need a house or condo to rent in Ft. Lauderdale? 3,221 available:
http://rentals.realtor.com/FindHome/HomeListings.asp?stype=rent&zp=&frm=bymap&nearbyZp=&pgnum=1&ss_aywr=&optInCheckbox=&st=fl&mls=xmls&lnksrc=&mnbed=0&js=on&mnsqft=0&fid=so&vtsort=&Image1=GO&typ=7&mxprice=99999999&Image1.x=5&exft=0&exft=0&exft=0&poe=realtor&mnprice=0&ct=fort+lauderdale&Image1.y=10&primaryZp=&mnbath=0&areaid=2173
That seems like quite a bit of inventory; but do you have any historical data? Is that number histroically high?
I would guess in PB county, in the development that I live, 10-20% of the homes are for sale right now. That, to me, is a staggering amount of inventory.
However, compared to where I used to live (in a downtown condo West Palm), this seems like a very moderate inventory number.
My Dad is planning a family reunion trip to Disney in 2008, and was being bull rushed by a travel agent into bull rushing me to agree to book the trip right now. Otherwise, we’ll be priced out forever.
I suggested that Disney will be there in 2008, and if he also wants us to rent a house on a beach nearby, I’ll bet there will be some available next year.
Making year out plans could be a bit tricky…
I’d wait.
In our upcoming cash & carry competition, you’ll be pitted against those without.
There is no shortage of Hotels near WDW. In fact, there are so many on property (Disney owned) hotels that they throw in meals for free during the early fall.
I have no historical data, but will venture to say that it is high. I wonder how many rentals aren’t included in that number.
My wife lives in Hollywood and has been looking for a new place to rent. She has looked at many condos and condo conversions. One condo conversion owner offered her a nice place (865 sqft) for $1000/month. However, the owner wanted first, last, and a deposit equal to a months rent. Bwhahahahah, $3000 up front…nuts, someone’s in trouble. I told her to stick to large apt properties to avoid problems until the dust settles down there.
” I told her to stick to large apt properties to avoid problems until the dust settles down there.”
Probably good advice with a few exceptions. There are some that jumped into the market in 2002 or 2003 who are still holding. Those are the landlords you want to rent from. Usually the prices are good and they’re in for the long haul.
Our 2BR 2BA was $1100 in West Palm Beach. Owner bought in December of 2002. He took 1st and security. Got all of our security deposit back when we left in December of 06.
That same 2/2 would run $1400 or so in a private development.
“the owner wanted first, last, and a deposit equal to a months rent”
I believe this is illegal in CA anyways.
From what I understand, that’s the maximum that an LL is allowed to ask.
and when they go it’s not in the employment data
WaMu
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2003669134_wamusubprime17.html
I have four CD’s coming due there. Think I’ll take my money elsewhere. Are those online banks safe from this debacle?
Every bank is highly suspect…
They loan money, don’t they?
as long as you have less than $100,000 and the bank is FDIC insured your money is basically just as safe in any bank.
That is not true, and have explained it already in detail (the reference made to “just as safe in any bank”).
But how long does it take to get the money from the feds if the bank goes under? Does anyone have any experience with that?
In almost all cases you have access to your insured ($100,000 or less) on Monday. The FDIC closes banks in 99% of time on Friday’s so depositor have their funds on Monday.
“Past performance is not neccessarily an indicator of future performance”
There’s a very good reason this phrase is in tiny letters, always at the bottom of any prospectus…
It’s a CYA thing that don’t really want you to see.
I would think with the new printing presses for printing currency they could do it alot quicker than 2 days.
You might be better off putting it into your brokerage money market account if you have one.
the fdic has not been put to the test on a large scale. i converted my cash into treasury notes…i’ll reevaluate things at the end of Q4.
Always been curious, is it $100K per account or per owner?
per account
Actually the answer is a little complicated. My recollection when I looked at this a few years ago, is it basically per person. You cannot have 3 accounts with $100,000 at the same bank and have coverage on all three. However, if you have a joint account with $200,000 it is fully covered. Further if you have a personal account with 100k and a trust account with 100k both are covered. I try to keep any account less than 100k or 200k for our joint accounts.
Also FDIC does not need to be put to a test. It has essentially the same safety as treasuries - they can print the cash. Although there is at least a potential for a time delay.
Brokerage money markets are theoretically less safe since they can lose principal value and there is no promise of protection. Money markets have lost principal value - for example I think it was the Strong money market during the enron garbage although I think the fund family covered the loss rather than the investors.
I keep most of my cash in a vanguard money market which has good yield and a safety level I am very comfortable with.
Re: “per account”. Be careful here. Basic FDIC deposit insurance covers, “$100,000 per depositor per insured bank”. So if you have $100K in a savings account and $100K in a CD at the same bank, you’re only covered for $100K. But, the reality is more complicated than this. For example, individual accounts and joint accounts are insured separately. Those with with skin in the game will want to be familiar with the http://www.fdic.gov/deposit/deposits/insuringdeposits/index.html“>full story from the FDIC itself.
Let’s try that link one more time.
FDIC Deposit Insurance FAQ
good points.. I should have elaborated.
It has essentially the same safety as treasuries - they can print the cash.
And that’s a good thing?
i use statefarm bank for money market funds. very good rates.
“i use statefarm bank for money market funds. very good rates.”
Competitive rates and reliable. They’re pretty conservative on who they loan money to. CD rates and vehicle loan rates are very good as well.
As said above, if we actually had a huge run on banks, yes they would honor those dollars…question is how long to sort out the mess, and then what would that do to the US$ value…it’s already under 82 in the best of times now….
check what happened in Argentina, and keep in mind that the banks there were mostly the same ones we have in Europe and the US. You will get your money back when it suits the banks and when the plummeting value of the currency provides them maximum profit for the transaction (of course, the values of mortgages and other loans will be adjusted for currency depreciation).
One problem with Argentina was that they kept printing money, thus creating a climate of hyperinfaltion. Then they tried to rein it in and everything started to fail. Things got so crazy that the city of Buenos Aires started printing their own money, which the city used for paying bills.
In Mexico prior to the hyperiflation of the early 80’s, bank used to offer dollar based accounts. When the peso collapsed (it went from 20 to a dollar to 3000 to a dollar in just over a few years) the dollar accounts (called mex-dollars) were cancelled and were converted into pesos at a very unfavorable (for account holders) exchange rate.
There is no restriction on creating and circulating a currency in the US, and I know that some cities have done so with the goal of trying to encourage the use of local businesses. Some have had success, others not.
Since we are increasingly headed towards a cashless society, it’s going to become easier and easier to create an alternate national currency. I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least an attempt at doing so if we get closer to hyper inflation.
Its true that the Fed can increase the money supply all they want, but unlike 3rd world central banks which are under the direct control of said countries executive, the Fed is somewhat independent, and has a track record of trying to keep inflation in check.
Of course the Treasury dept could print money, but they haven’t done that in decades.
Regarding alternate currencies, it is possible that large corporations could print their own money, especially if they form alliances. So we could someday see Mobil-Exxon-WalMart-IBM bucks.
Take the money overseas - MRKX (World money market fund) or one of the Currency Shares FXA, FXC, etc. It is hard to make a case that the dollar will do better vs other currencies in the current environment.
It would be a mistake to think that money market mutual funds are safer than banks. Most banks are at least insured by the federal government.
Mutual funds are insured by… whom? More importantly, read your small print- some fund companies reserve the right in emergencies to delay redemption while they use money in some funds to ‘temporarily’ offset losses in another while losing customers are trying to redeem out. Add to this risk the paltry return of mm funds compared to that of insured bank funds or even Treasury Direct T-Bills… or heck, even I Series Savings Bonds.
Read your fund fine print for foreign investment funds as well.
You do not get to write the small print in your fund companies.
Ever Bank has a vey good track record.
Ventura County Star theis moring Front Page about Foreclosure. Comment from a local Ventura Mortgage Broker,”perfect storm is brewing, and most people don’t even know it.”
http://venturacountystar.com/news/2007/apr/17/homeowner-default-notices-jump-123/
“What’s driving the increase of foreclosures? Some experts say they don’t know.”
Now that’s what I call an expert.
“What’s driving the increase of foreclosures? Some experts say they don’t know.”
These so-called experts are complete idiots. All you have to do is drive thru such crapholes areas of LA as SCentral, Cudahy, bell, maywood, Compton,Pacoima, ect where homes were till recently being fraudulently listed and sold to ignoramous immigrants for $450,000-$500,000.
Surprise when their payments suddenly double and they walk out of their POS 80 yr old crapshacks, which were never worth more than $100,000 to begin with.
BTW:I will call out those who believe that the LA Westside is immune from collapsing RE prices. LA Mid-cities zip 90019(Hancock park,miracle mile,country club park)has 12 foreclosures/82 NOD’s. True, this is not exactly the westside but is directly adjacent to it.
West Hollywood, which may be WS or close to it, has 10 foreclosures/22 NOD’s in zip 90069.
Just a simple skip from the WS over the hollywood hills the SFV is on the verge of a foreclosure pandemic, especially in the marginal northern and eastern portions. Sylmar, Northridge, N hollywood are only a tiny sample of SFV cities in full epidemic mode. Even the upscale well-off parts of SFV which closely mirror the WS in income and neighborhood upkeep, such as Valley village, Tarzana, Encino and Sherman oaks, are showing unhealthy levels of foreclosure activity(E.G Tarzana-21/82).
LA county just went over 3000 foreclosures are the game is only in the first inning, 3rd batter up.
Mistaken typo!
‘LA county just went over 3000 foreclosures are the game is only in the first inning, 3rd batter up.’
‘Are’ should be ‘and’. Need more caffeine!
Sorry about the spelling. No coffee yet, “THIS MORNING.”
http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=us&q=fdic+borrowers+mortgage&ie=UTF-8&scoring=d
check these news stories out. too many to link.
quick summary is there was a meeting between the FDIC, Federal Reserve and a lot of execs from the mortgage biz to try to keep people from foreclosing.
the problem is the CDOs and how they are structured. because the loans are broken up into tranches and then securitized it’s almost impossible to change the loan terms.
still it looks like regulators are trying to avoid mass foreclosures and it’s going to be interesting between now and the end of the year
As I predicted, the mother of all cram downs.
If they can get around the MBS problem, this might work for legitimate, responsible first time homebuyers who just overpaid due to the bubble. The loan can be written down and stretched out, and there can be an allocation of pain between them — with less income left over than they ought to have — and the investor — with an even lower return than that expected. The alternative — the FB walks away, foreclosure sales push down prices rapidly, and losses escalate.
The problem is, workouts don’t work with investors, fraud, and those whose income is so low there is no hope of them repaying more than a small fraction of the loan. I guess we’re going to find out how many of them there are.
Will a FB who gets a writedown and is now living in permanent house-poverty keep to the deal when he sees the flipper’s house next door auctioned off for 30% less than the value of his loan?
if this works out we are due for a long period of flatness in prices. very long at best and slight deflation on a national level at worst. a lot of volatility in store for some local markets.
i think the goal is not to avoid deflation, but a total meltdown like the BK of Fannie Mae and a financial crisis.
the major issue is probably not the monthly payments (of course it is an issue for some in the short run), but the losses on the value of the home once investors realize that prices are really going down.
Someone yesterday equated the FBs as having bought a very cheap call option on the housing market. To extend that, these workout arrangements are just telling the FB “Hey, even though the price went down you can still exercise that option!”
That’s the real question– how long until people abandon hope of prices going back up? How many avenues of wealth are people ready to exhaust waiting (stocks, 401k, CC etc). Very interesting.
good point; I think the same (cheap call option) can be said for many EU buyers, especially those in Netherlands and UK. Their downside risk is extremely small thanks to zero-down, free housing put options from government and sometimes loans that are free if home prices really go down. With all the leverage involved (as mentioned elsewhere bigger than in the futures market) I think they are not stupid at all but made an extremely attractive deal. And if the deal goes sour they can always claim that they didn’t understand the small print and have to be bailed out by government (after all, a far-above-average home is an official entitlement in Europe, especially for young buyers). In the worst case they will have to live on social security income for 3 years, after that all debts and credit scores are cleared and they can proceed to the next round of the housing bubble game.
If you win, you lose. If you lose, you win.
Upside down
“the problem is the CDOs and how they are structured. because the loans are broken up into tranches and then securitized it’s almost impossible to change the loan terms.”
Come on guys, keep searching! There has to be some way to keep
the magical ponzi scheme from collapsing!
Have you tried some of Harry Potters …hocus pocus…
Don’t be ashamed to try! Ordinary people won’t see you, as all your meetings are behind closed doors with only high skilled financial magicians, all aware the fan is waiting for $hit to hit…
Maybe if the loan biz trumps out it’s secret weapon, we can save ourselves from ourselves…
The V-2 in their arsennal?
The not much heard of, so far… “Alakazam Loan”
Hey, this fan stinks. Get us another one.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/16/AR2007041601633.html?hpid=sec-business
Fannie Mae to Unveil Plan to Help Strapped Homeowners
Fannie Mae would expand products now available to 500 selected lenders to about 2,000 nationwide, Mudd is expected to tell the committee today. Mudd’s statement also says Fannie Mae will stretch the loan term for this refinancing product to a maximum of 40 years from a current limit of 30 years, which will shave monthly mortgage payments by about 5 percent.
Hey! I thought Fannie Mae was regulated by Congress. Who the hell gave these people the right to extend 40-YEAR LOANS anyway. Other than the obvious consequences to the person paying all the excess interest, this will just end up prolonging this much-needed market correction. Who can I write to to make this stop?
I keep wondering how the hell they’re allowed to do anything new, given that they can’t yet account for everything they’ve already been doing.
Grab a shovel. Let’s help the subprime lending industry ‘educate’ our constituents. Later, we will point fingers and complain. From USAToday:
The Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute’s “Hogar” (Spanish for hearth or home) initiative, provides fellowships, financial education and other efforts to boost homeownership in 63 congressional districts in 11 state. The group’s 2007 funding has not been finalized. But in 2006, one of Hogar’s “trusted friends” who paid $50,000 for a line on the caucus’ website, special mention in its newsletters, listing on materials and advertising at events, was Countrywide Financial….
…
The Congressional Black Caucus Foundation started its “With Ownership, Wealth” WOW initiative in 2001 to help with education, credit counseling and down payment resources. Household International, Countrywide and New Century are among the sponsors.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/banking/2007-04-17-subprime-usat_N.htm
Housing starts up…
Keep building, I want to have my choice of McMansions when I am ready to buy.
“I want to have my choice of McMansions when I am ready to buy.”
It’s already happening Mike! Olympia for the low, low, dealman price of $337K.
Too much space for me. Perhaps when the kids are gone I could start my own commune or monastary or boarding house, zoning permitting. I don’t see what else those buildings are good for.
” I don’t see what else those buildings are good for. ”
In Pt St Lucie they use them as grow houses.
The downside of the “see me-dig me” lifestyle was apparent long ago…
there’s a house, I’ve been watching for about a year…borders forest, beautiful area, the owner beyond desperate right now…I am so tempted, could probably get it at tremendous discount, but…it’s too big…too much to heat/cool/furnish/clean/maintain, etc. All these huge houses are just going to sit. I have no idea what will happen to most of them. Some could convert to an B&B maybe, but now I hear from a “charming inn” owner that business and future bookings are way down, and it’s not even the season yet….little weekend trips to a cute B&B are some of the first perks to go when you’re running out of money.
I’ve always wondered how effectively you could seal off portions of a large house. You’d have to have multi-zone a/c, insulated internal walls, nearly airtight doors, etc. Still, could be be nice having that additional space when you need it.
You could start your own assisted living facility.
–
Bring on the SUPPLY!
My prediction of 20M Vacant Units, Year Round, will be realized before the predicted date of dec’09. The coming recession/depression will turn the 1.4M/yr demand into -1.5M/year demand, i.e., demand going negative.
It will be very ugly and home prices will decline 50-90% depending on the area. Manhattan and Silly.con Valley will be the hardest hit.
Jas
home prices will decline 50-90% depending on the area
let’s hope then that the EU bubble collapses very soon as well, because otherwise 16-year old kids from Europe will be buying up Manhattan with whole blocks at a time (zero-down and with all the loans fully government-insured, of course). Most US prices are already bargains compared to Europe, just imagine what happens when buyers get an additional 50-90% discount…
–
Europeans and Asians have nothing to be concerned about. We will take every country down with us! Misery loves company!!
Jas
Perhaps it will be known as New Amsterdam once again? Bring on the “coffie shops”
I will remember to check if we can trade-in Suriname on the deal, just to reverse whan happened long ago.
And regarding the coffie shops: you can be 100% sure what all those empty McMansions are going to be used for if that deal works out. No easier way to pay the mortgage than by growing the money yourself.
–
“And regarding the coffie shops: you can be 100% sure what all those empty McMansions are going to be used for if that deal works out.”
Surely lot more than “coffie.” Saloons of the wild West come to mind, except, of course, for the privacy.
It would be interesting for sure. Pleasures for some and pain for many.
Jas
Let ‘em catch the falling knife.
I know what you mean about high prices in Europe. A ex pat American living over there was sharing in another blog how he paid over $50,000 for a VW Passat in the UK. The same model (equipment,etc.) sells for under 30K in the US.
What amazes me about the European situation is that they aren’t paid all that well over there. My employer has a division over there and I know for a fact that my counterparts in the UK are paid about 20-30% less than what we get in the US. Of course for them a VW Golf is a big deal (no 3 VW’s for under 16K over there).
you forget that the Europeans are backed up by 10-15 years of huge housing equity gains
In Netherlands the gains from appreciating real estate are something like 30-50% of total job income. If you take into account that only 55% of the Dutch own their home (and many of those don’t speculate) there must be a significant chunk of the population who receive far more each year from the housing bubble than from their official job (or from welfare …).
You’ll have to figure out a way to heat/cool them w/o going BK yourself. On the other hand, you could keep your riding horse in the living room after the price of oil skyrockets.
Yes housing starts up, but did you see the weird breakdown? Down about 5% to 10% everywhere except the midwest, where they were UP 44% or something like that. Looks fishy to me.
Here’s a link:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a692NsfohmCo&refer=home
This is very interesting data. Builder confidence in the midwest was down to 22% yet a day latter we get info that starts are way up in the midwest. The two stats make you wonder.
With that said, its spring time and the builders in the midwest are preparing for the ‘big selling season’. It will only create even more inventory and BK for builders by the end of the year.
Makes sense to me. Last summer and fall, the developers began work on all this land they’d acquired - bulldozing trees and structures, grading, building roads. Now that the ground has thawed, they’re back in platting the lots and starting to build the homes. This isn’t an uptick so much as a continuation of what they’d begun last year. They’re committed now, so even if business is lousy, they’ve too much invested to back out. They’ll build till they go bust.
I know of at least three major developments on the eastern side of the Twin Cities metro area where this is playing out.
Housing starts up .08% Inflaton when you strip out everything people use was in line. Great numbers.
KC,
Was that a joke? When you strip out everything important, the inflation number looks great.
Let’s figure the inflation the the price of beenie babies! That will get a great inflation number!!
U.S. housing starts down 23% year-on-year
U.S. building permits down 26% year-on-year
but still higher than expected…..
spin, spin, spin
U.S. March CPI largest gain since April 2006
but core is only up…….
spin, spin, spin
Welcome to the Baghdad Bob States of America…
They lowered the previous months from 1525K to 1506K, it is just a numbers game.
don’t eat,drive or live in a house and everythings cool
beenie baby deflator
I’m calling for STAGflation as opposed to stagFLATION
the housing drag is too big
great numbers for sure: EU stocks, euro and gold are all up on the news
For a tell it like it really is assessment of the US housing mess.
Falling March Housing Starts is a major concern – real estate far weaker than many can even imagine
Marla Guthrie
Apr. 16, 2007
The real estate market is in a thirty-year bear market. The signs are clear after a fantastic blow off in the real estate bubble. Falling March Housing Starts is a major concern. The real estate is far weaker than many can even imagine.
The same investors whose negative equities exceeded millions after banks foreclosed their properties one after the other are again in the market making new deals. Believe it or not the shameless mortgage bankers that created the bubble in the first place are underwriting the loans to jokers too.
The biggest problem in the real estate market is the attitudes in the minds of the people that one can keep borrowing to buy properties. Real estate is more leveraged than the futures market. It is pure form of gambling to buy homes on no, 5 or 10% down.
After the real crash between now and 2012, the laws will be enacted when people will be asked to put down at least 30% before they can get a mortgage. That will be the end of mortgage markets. That will create the final leg of collapsing real estate prices.
http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/16471.asp
“laws will be enacted when people will be asked to put down at least 30% before they can get a mortgage”
Will the finance sector ever allow this to become law? What the wall street and the financial engineers want is to have every asset in the USA transformed into an interest generating debt-trap so that they can extract lucrative fees and interest payments streching out to infinity.
My guess is that downpayments are history. New financial products will be created that will make Wall Street even richer.
oi-vay, you may have something there.
back in 1960 my Dad got a promo to NYC and we moved. The house in Buffalo was the first he had ever bought. The Gov announced plans for Interstate 190 would tear our block in half. It didn’t, but it tore the sale price of the house in half. I vaguely remember that he lost $3,000. Guess he had to bring money to the closing. That was a lot of money in those days. He swore he would never “speculate” in RE again and he never did. He rented until my grandmother died and forced him into home ownership again (without a mortgage).
I think this RE downturn will be a generational bust, a generation of lost faith in the “real estate is the best investment” creed.
My dad, who made pretty good money (Dept. of Energy engineer) bought a house in W. Colorado in 1965 for $18,000. He did an owner carry, refused to get in debt with a bank holding the mortgage (owner-carry was bad enough for him, but the owners lived next door and became good friends). My mom was pissed, as he could’ve bought a nicer house if he’d used a bank. But they paid the sucker off and had disposable income for other things for many many years. When I paid $160k for a house back in 1993 (big log house on 25 acres), he thought I was insane. He just couldn’t comprehend getting into debt like that. I sold it for a small profit two years later (35k) and bought another, which I fortunately sold at the peak of the bubble. He was very pleased when I sold this last house, as he never could understand why I’d want to be in debt.
Moral of the story: the Depression-era folks (my dad) have seen true hard times and we haven’t. To them, debt = slavery, not success. I’d bet my last gallon of gas that most of the FBs just walk, think little of it, and start over. “Values” are different now.
Yep, they will walk…most all underwater people did in Austin by 1992 except a few that stayed put and payed it down over the years.
Now, if bad things start happening to people that walk…e.g., judgements, garnished wages for difference between mortgage and sale price, IRS taxes, etc… and word gets around, then it might be different this time. But if this happens, then very few if any will buy a house until it is way cheaper to buy then rent.
I like that - underwater people - isn’t that from an old Samples song?
It amazes me at how many experts are “masters of the obvious”. We should have a daily/weekly vote on quotes in these articles. Plenty to choose from. On a side note, I know too many people so close to the industry that they don’t understand what happened to the housing market. They thought the cycle over the last ten years was normal. H82bnRE
I like acronyms and MOTO is one I use all the time.
“The obscure we see eventually. The completely obvious, it seems, takes longer.” -Murphy
Hey J Weidle and Blue Skye -
Do you want to try to pull together a bubble gathering for bloggers in our area? If anyone else reading lives in or around the Hatboro, PA area and would be interested in getting together, email me at nittany87@gmail.com.
Huh - that’s an odd little editorial section (India Daily) - scanning last names in the bylines, it’s an ecletic (US Based?) group of writers, and the journalistic standards of the editorials seem a little more lax than your average PTA newsletter.
Oh, I’m not saying the writer is wrong, but it looks a little more like Schadenfreude alley (from a bunch of American Expats?) than anything serious.
From Dr Joe Duarte’s Morning Newsletter…
Stanley Johnson Sydrome: The Personal Crash
Appearances Aren’t Everything
Billy Crystal, in one of his most famous Saturday Night Live skits, would say: “Dahling.. it’s better to look good than feel good.” And that is what may be happening to a significant number of Americans as a result of the bursting of the housing bubble, as they chose to look good, but now are beginning to not feel so good, as a dark reality sets in.
Marketwatch columnist Herb Greenberg, usually looks at the dark side of any situation. And although he is often correct, it helps to look at his writings through a rose colored filter, in order to keep a semblance of positive thought about you.
But, his recent series of the dark side of the subprime debacle, and the spread of the problem into other areas of the credit world is worth exploring, even briefly.
Greenberg talked to an accountant in Pennsylvania who keeps the books for a large number of New Jersey clients who from all appearances are living the “good life.”
Yet, according to anectodal evidence from the accountant, Greenberg delivers a sensible message, by reminding us of the tale of the guy in the LendingTree commercial, Stanley Johnson.
Greenberg’s set up is worth repeating: ‘You may have seen that LendingTree commercial with a happy-go-lucky guy named Stanley Johnson, who brags about his big house, his new car and how, “I even belong to the local golf club. How do I do it?” he continues with a big, dumb smile, “I’m in debt up to my eyeballs.” Lowering his voice, but still smiling, he adds, “I can barely pay my finance charges.” The smile doesn’t leave his face as he drives a riding lawn mower, saying, “Somebody help me.”‘
According to Greenberg, the accountant, a fellow named R. Douglas Ley, who is also a financial planner is ‘”shocked..”by the bad and deteriorating financial condition of many of my clients,”‘ a fact that makes Greenberg, and us wonder if “there are more Stanley Johnsons among us than we may think.”
For us, for obvious reasons, it’s hard to resist, dubbing this condition “The Stanley Johson Syndrome (SJS).”
This potentially dangerous condition, does not always lead to a rash or fever, but can produce chest pain, hyperventilation, red, tearful eyes, and significant depression if left untreated, and is somewhat complex, but simple to prevent with common sense.
This disease is derived from that old genetic predisposition called greed, and is based on the overinflated home prices created during the recent housing bubble, which in turn led homeowners to tap into their home equity as a source of buying power.
According to Greenberg: ‘No region is better represented with ready-to-tell stories than Orange County, Calif. That is where, until 2005, Donald Parker owned a large insurance agency. He recalls how low mortgage rates spurred business in late 2001 with refinancings and home-equity lines of credit that required proof of insurance. “It really became excessive by the summer of 2004,” he says. “That’s when I started noticing that many of my clients had either refinanced or added a second mortgage or home-equity line of credit multiple times within the prior three years often doubling or in some cases tripling their mortgage balances.” ‘
Greenberg’s insurance agent tells an interesting tale, adding: ‘it wasn’t the expansion of mortgage balances that was so alarming. “It was all the new, expensive cars being purchased and added on to their auto insurance. Often people were calling to replace a Honda Accord with a new BMW or Mercedes. We were also receiving a lot of phone calls from our customers asking coverage questions: for instance, ‘Is my new Rolex watch covered if I lose it on vacation in Hawaii?’ ”
And it can get more personal, as Greenberg writes: “If CPAs and insurance agents are among the first to spot the problems while they are occurring, divorce attorneys like Bruce Hughes, also of Orange County, are among the first to see the actual fallout. “We see it as it happens,” he says. “From industry to industry over the years, they come in groups when various industries go through turmoil. Now it’s real estate’s turn. I can’t tell you how many mortgage brokers, builders, developers and others associated with the building industry have come in for a divorce in the past six months and it’s increasing.”
Conclusion
The problem, then is not whether you can borrow money, but that at some point, you have to pay the home loan, or home equity line of credit back. And if you have more than one such loan or credit line outstanding, the problem tends to compound itself
In other words, there are no free rides. In fact, what seems like a free ride is likely to have the potential to be the biggest mistake one could ever make.
As Greenberg puts it: “Thanks to easy credit, many Americans have been living well beyond their means. But that credit picture is beginning to change. And when you think about where the U.S. economy might be a quarter or two from now, you have to wonder how many Stanley Johnsons are out there. This isn’t the stereotypical subprime borrower, with a spotty credit history and low credit score, but instead people perceived by friends and neighbors to be living the good life, some even sporting good credit scores.”
Is there a cure? One cure is common sense, just stay away from over borrowing. Another one, which would just postpone the eventual outcome of Stanley Johson Syndrome, would be a nice big easing of interest rates by the Fed.
The former is more likely at this point, which means that the number of cases of SJS is going to have to increase to epidemic numbers before the latter takes place.
A lightbulb went on for me. The Sopranos had a story line of the “Scatino bust out” a few seasons back. A compulsive gambler who owned a sporting goods store begged to get into the big game and had Tony front him a bunch of money. Of course he lost big and couldn’t pay it back, so Tony became his senior partner in his store and the mob looted the business buying stuff on credit and fencing it until there was no more credit and they shut the doors. And of course we’re supposed to feel bad for poor David Scatino who got taken advantage of by TS.
“What’s the end?”
“The end… It’s planned bankruptcy. Hey, you’re not the first guy to get busted out. This is how a guy like me makes his living. This is my bread and butter.”
Tin foil hat on:
After today’s NYT article I have now figured out why so many illegals were allowed in without a whimper from the gov’t:
1. The illegals helped inflate the bubble by providing ultra cheap labor for builders and allowed maximum profits to be gained.
2. The illegals had no avenue to complain about working hours and conditions unlike “documented” workers so they would provide less trouble when treated like chattle.
3. The illegals were allowed to be bubble participants through corrupt bankers granting them suicide mortgages and lines of credit. Were they going to complain about usury rates or practices?
4. When all the illegals are thrown out of their construction jobs and relegated back to farmer’s fields they will not even affect gov’t unemployment data or be elegible for gov’t assistance. This helps mitigate the effect of huge job losses without the consequences (on paper). This makes Bernanke and his crew look better than they really are and convinces Americans that the economic picture is fairly rosey even though hundreds of thousands of illegals are gathered on street corners desperate for work and food.
I see a large number of people standing on street corners here in northern NJ towns seemingly waiting for work. See on the news in flooded towns here in NJ, occupants of flooded homes reluctant to be rescued because they fear gov’t because they are illegal. Police go on TV and say “It’s OK if you are illegal, we just want to help”. (laws? we don’t need no stinking laws)
Re #4: This is a great opportunity to repatriate these people back to where they came from. Offer them a transportation voucher so they can get back to Michoacan or Jalisco or wherever they came from and a few bucks to tide them over while they resettle in back home.
Call it incentivized self deportation.
“The illegals had no avenue to complain about working hours and conditions unlike “documented” workers so they would provide less trouble when treated like chattle.”
You can add to this that when they are injured on the job, the owners can just point the guy to the nearest emergency room and cut him from the payroll. Socialize the costs, privatize the profits.
And taxpyaers get to pick up the bill.
For all those who like to hire illegals, you’ve dumped all the costs on the rest of us.
Baltimore Housing Bubble Blog URL has been fixed.
Nikki’s Baltimore Housing blog is back from being hijacked.
You can find it here:
http://baltimorehousing.blogspot.com/
Note that (for now) if you click on it form the “LINKS” section of this blog, you’ll go instead to http://baltimorehousing5.blogspot…. which is close but not quite it.
Hat tip to barely at CR.
Dataquick percentages of 12-month “conversion” of NOD’s to foreclosures in CA. (The Q2 numbers are not on the DQ ‘recent releases’, sorry.)
Q3/2005 6
Q4/2005 8
Q1/2006 9
Q2/2006 ?
Q3/2006 19
Q4/2006 32
Q1/2007 40
Could that be a trend I see?
Given that the number of NOD’s is itself at historically high levels, if this percentage holds up there’s going to be a spectacular number of foreclosures in CA over the next 12 months.
Oops. This appears to have been covered in yesterday’s CA thread. Please disregard.
Current investments…
I went investing yesterday, part of my “you have to eat” lifestyle, i’ve become accustomed to~
There is a tremendous glut of foodstuffs and liquor, of every persuasion out there.
Useful products that couldn’t get by the moat (shelf) of the market conditions, dictated by Korporate Brobdinagians…
Yesterday’s “buy” was a couple of cases of One Buck Chuck~
For the princely sum of $11.88 a case…
I bought 2004 Covey Run Washington State Sauvignon Blanc.
24 bottles for $23.76
I’ll stick with my Lienie’s Creamy Dark - I wish a case was that cheap.
Today’s buy seems to be anything but the dollar. Pound is over $2 - first time in 15 yrs
Inflation is up in the UK so a rate hike is expected there.
German Consumer sentiment jumped - another rate hike likely.
Japanese consumer confidence is falling.
Hmm… I’ve learned that whenever I cash a good deal of USD into EUR, I’ll inevitably do it at a “peak”. Doesn’t wipe me out, as I can only do the equivalent of $500 at a time, but still.
Hint to travelers to Germany (should any of you thrifty types feel like using some of that money you’ve saved by renting): get your EUR at a Sparkasse ATM, using a credit union ATM card (or some other bank that doesn’t fancy itself a forex player). I end up getting my EUR for less than 0.5% above midmarket this way.
I’ve yet to find such a cheap way to move more than a few hundred USD at once, though.
Good advice. I usually avoid using my credit card abroad as much as possible (except for car rental). AMEX and VISA charge you something like 2 or 3% on the currency exchange. Add 2% to that if you take out cash!
I remember the curious way I did business way back when~
All about travelers checks, back in the early 80’s…
For the small time international player~
You got dinged a little bit on the exchange rate, if you had one ply green, black and white pieces of toilet paper, instead of the t/c’s.
Karl Malden was right. They were safer.
Things Change.
Capital One doesn’t charge any international transaction fee. I think they even eat the 1% VISA charges them. This is the only reason I even carry one of their cards.
And just how is that going to effect the tourist business this year?
We’ll see more of them here, and less of us will be seen over there.
I found out last night that Countrywide is opening an office in my area this summer. 500 employees. Didn’t they just have a massive layoff (or am I thinking of another lender)?
That was New Century.
Actually I was thinking Citigroup with the 17,000 layoffs recently announced.
I hope all our NYC, NJ friends are ok today…after seeing the flooding on TV.
Built a snowman yesterday in our 14″ of snow….still snowing as I speak. (Eye roll)
If my ramblings and assorted warnings about Mother Mature (always bat’s last) haven’t been persuasive enough, just look out the window…
I went deep into the belly of the Central Valley California beast yesterday and was shocked~
April 16th and the grass is already brown, everywhere.
PAST PERFORMANCE ISN’T NECCESSARILY AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE
the bears are out in Colorado already, way too early, scrounging for food. sad.
A buddy has seen a 300 pound Black Bear (fun to see, no relation whatsoever to their Grizzly counterparts, aside from being a Bear)
twice now, going through trash cans, in his neighborhood.
This means they woke too early from hibernation, got those hunger pangs we all get.
No food above drove them down here.
Last year in the midst of the 114 degree heat here, we had phenominal amounts of ants in our house, scrounging for anything. If a driblet of Doctor Pepper (afficianado of the prune soda) were to fall on the floor, the next day, there’d be a trail of hundreds of ants, scurrying off with their curious treasure.
We thought it was just us, and then everybody else in town told us, it was the worst they’d ever seen. Last year’s 5 weeks of peaceful intrusion.
It didn’t help to try and kill them, more would just take their place.
We had to get airtight containers for many of our foodstuffs.
A hungry, thirsty ant, is a worthy adversary.
and mountain lions are out, checking out the runners and bikers on our trails. Warnings are out. We’ve banned our runner daughter (like, maybe she’ll listen?!) from certain trails.
Lions LOVE runners.
Well, more power to them, I’d feel the same way if my habitat was overun.
Hmmmm - makes me think of illegals for some reason…
Same here in OC. My son and I were out walking in a nature preserve and we noticed that everything was brown and dry. This time of year we usually have a lot of green growth that dries out as the summer heat wears on it. Not this year. It is going to be a bad fire season.
i’m interested in a house that’s been on the market since september. willing to pay 650. problem is that owners refinanced 620, and don’t have the money to pay that off if they get 650 after costs. can i suggest a short sale, or is that only when the gross, not net, price is below the mortgage?
don’t do it. wait. you’ll be sorry, trust me.
If the owners have any sense, they’ll borrow the money, even on credit cards, and make that sale happen just to unload that place on the next sucke… er, I mean, to you.
After 6% commission, they’d only be $9k short, unless they are also paying closing costs, etc. If they have any kind of typical mortgage, that’s less than 3 month’s interest alone. Far better to take the lump on the head now than to risk finsing someone else who might pay their wishing price.
Anyway, no offense intended, seriously, but this place better be a real steal for you to be diving into the market there for so much money. And if there’s not been a buyer for months at near the full $650k, I can hardly think that $620k is a real steal.
My advice to the seller is to make this sale at $620k happen, even if they need a CashCall loan to do it. My advice to YOU would be to avert your eyes from this lust-inducing McMansion, take a cold shower, and rethink it.
Whoops… need to check my numbers…
And if there’s not been a buyer for months at near the full $650k, I can hardly think that $620k is a real steal.
Sorry, I actually didn’t see the list price and can’t assume it’s even close to $650k. (Is it?) Let’s just say if there hasn’t been a buyer for this long, that house is overpriced, and you better be waaaaaay below their asking price. And to reword:
My advice to the seller is, if the offer is even close to asking price, to make this sale at $650k happen, even if they need a CashCall loan to do it. My advice to YOU as a buyer would be to avert your eyes from this lust-inducing McMansion, take a cold shower, and rethink it.
willing to pay 650
You’re a jackass
You guys are rough. I’ve blogged myself about the bubble, starting in ‘04, when many of you never even heard about it. But it’s time to buy a home for the wife and kid, and we’re buying a property we plan to never sell in an area that we think will ultimately appreciate, even if it goes down 20% or whatever in the next few years, meanwhile we get a historically low interest rate, and we think the house would sell at asking or beyond if the sellers had the resources to do just a few minor things (add hardwood floors, finish the gas fireplace they started, etc). I nevertheless expect to lose some money in the short term on paper, but I can afford it, and it’s worth it for keeping peace in the house. Nevertheless, I don’t want to overpay given the market value right now. I know the sellers would accept our offer if they hadn’t mortgaged themselves up the wazoo.
Seriously David, that better be a palace at 650K, and you should either be making 300K+ annually or be putting at least that much down.
This is the bubble to end all bubbles, and that place won’t fetch half that in five years, nor will it see appreciation of any kind for 15. If you have any chance of surviving that kind of loss (especially with your family intact), you better be able to pay for it with pocket change.
You’re overwrought. The place is very well located walking to the metro in DC, and would have been worth 300K seventeen years ago. And we do make almost 300K. Commentators here seem to forget that there was massive post-inflation NEGATIVE appreciation from 89 to 99, so while I agree that there was a bubble, not all of the appreciation was bubbly, some was natural “makeup”.
Good news in the NW suburubs of Chicago. Townhome for 210,000. I offered 149,000 and the seller accepted. I think I’ll try lowballing a few more first, though.
don’t buy now, you’ll be sorry. it’s going to come down a LOT more, soon.
It went for $100,000 in 98.
WOW. That is 30% haircut.
Maybe the process is different here in Australia, but to my thinking your tag is quite accurate. I would never make an actual offer unless I was prepared to buy at the price I offered (subject to inspection report).
Vile.. where is it? I have friends wanting to buy.. Do TELL! I’m in Arlington Heights.
Thanks
It’s west of AH.
I’m just following the advice of a previous poster - dangle insulting offers in front of buyers. If they don’t accept now, they might remember your offer in a year from now….
…or a month from now.
Got 10% down?
Dilbert desk calendar this week is starting a new series where Dogbert is Dilbert’s real estate agent (selling). This morning’s cartoon is hilarious! Dilbert’s describing his house, and Dogbert’s writing the ad -
Dilbert: “When it rains, the sewer backs up and covers the driveway”
Dogbert: “Lake… View”
Dilbert: “Every spring, rabid squirrels rip off huge chunks of the roof to look for food”
Dogbert: “Seasonal… Skylight”
Dilbert: “The dry brush behind the house is a fire hazard”
Dogbert: “Potential… Fire… Place…”
Hilarious. Thanks for the laugh…
danke from germany
Tin foil hat off:
Regarding the housing starts numbers….so if GM has a glut of 1,000,000 cars on the market that they can’t sell and they build an additional 1,000,000 cars is that indicative of a market that’s getting better?
sarcasm off
good one! lol
The desperate begin to slash rental prices? This is a bit of a long commute to DC, but still..
http://washingtondc.craigslist.org/nva/apa/310016012.html
But if you can’t decide b/t buying or renting in Springfield, VA, and you see this home. I’ve got to think you’re renting and saving the rest of the cash for when prices fall even lower.
Zillow Busted In Arizona For Not Having An Appraiser License
http://techdirt.com/articles/20070416/071718.shtml
Hopefully this link works…local realtor can’t sell his flip and now he’s removed himself as the listing agent and is doing a short sale…lol…place has been for sale like forever
http://tinyurl.com/3b7o2t
What exactly does it take to call yourself “analyst”? Not much it seems. Here’s a quote from:
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2007/04/17/news/01foreclosure041707.txt
“Local real estate analyst Gary London said the foreclosure rate could soar higher if the housing market continues its slump. The 433 homes lost in March represent a fraction of the tens of thousands of transactions conducted in the county each month, London said.”
“the tens of thousands of transactions conducted in the county each month”, what transactions are those? Don’t sales run in the 1.5 to 2 thousand per month at the moment?
Maybe reporters make him nervous. Or maybe he’s not too good at math. Or maybe he’s not just a real estate “analyst” but is also a realtor, in which case it’s amazing he even acknowledged that there were any foreclosures.
San Diego sales statistics for March are out:
http://www.sandicor.com/statistics/stats2007/03statistics.html
Average monthly number of sales (total = condos, SFH, etc) was 2000. Not quite “tens of thousands”.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070417/ap_on_bi_ge/risky_mortgages_3
Mortgage giants may help borrowers
Is this the bail out?
I’m sure the mortgage companies would like to pass the bag to Fannie and Fredide. Who pays when the FBs default on the new “affordable” mortgage?
“Who pays when the FBs default on the new “affordable” mortgage?”
And the FBs will eventually walk away when they realize that they’re upside down to the tune of several hundred thousand dollars.
Great charts:
The Dow is Crashing
Well, well. About an hour ago I got a phone call from an intern working in Arizona Senator John Kyl’s office regarding my “no bailout” email. He’d obviously read it, whether or not the good senator had, and we chatted for about five minutes. He noted my concerns etc., said that the senator was aware of the issue and was planning to press for regulatory overhaul. So there, I guess—while my faith in democracy may not be completely restored, it’s better than the constant stream of emails I get from the Dodd campaign begging me for money.
Does anyone have suggestions on where I can park about 10k that I have in my Roth IRA (all in cash right now). I was getting ready to put it in a few mutual funds when this whole housing mess started unwinding. I’m afraid that housing will drag down the whole economy and the stock market.
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