April 17, 2007

A New Vocabulary Emerging In Florida

The St Petersburg Times reports from Florida. “Inventories are bulging. Contracts are collapsing. A new vocabulary is emerging in the real estate market. Welcome to terms like ’short sale.’ This time last year in Pasco, there were 5,011 homes waiting to move off the shelf. Today, there are 7,796, according to a real estate company.”

“Sales are down and the glut of unsold homes is up, defying the optimists who said the market would turn around by spring 2007. Two years ago, one in two homes sold in any given month. Today, the same period would see one in 20 sell.”

“‘2007 is going to be flat,’ said County Commissioner Ted Schrader, himself a landowner who sold to developers. ‘2008 is probably going to be flat, at least in the early part.’”

“Prices are still coming down. Take Meadow Pointe in Wesley Chapel. At 28703 Crooked Stick Court, the selling price has gone from $389,900 in May last year to $335,000 in February.”

“Or 28418 Great Bend Place, also in Meadow Pointe, which was $419,900 in March last year. Now it’s for sale for $335,000.”

“Real estate agent Russ Perlowski said he is seeing more short sales. So is Christie Zimmer, who runs F.R.O.G. Realty in Land O’Lakes. ‘There’s been a 10 to 15 percent increase in the last year,’ she said, though she says this is a rough estimate. ‘That number is going to go up substantially. I just did six in the last three months.’”

“Short sales are a way out for desperate sellers who want to avoid having their homes seized. Foreclosure suits rose 87 percent in Pasco last year, the biggest jump in the Tampa Bay area.”

“‘Foreclosures have more than doubled,’ said Linda Pichler, VP for Consumer Credit Counseling Service of Central Florida.”

“Julius Green is a real estate appraiser. He and his wife…are finding themselves with more space than they might need. He just closed on his new home in Deerfield Lakes, a 230-home development on State Road 52 at the Suncoast Parkway. Just over a year ago, his 6-month-old neighborhood would have been crawling with builders.”

“It’s empty today. Of the 30 houses built in the development, his section has just three. ‘On our street, we are the only house that’s complete,’ Green said.”

The Sun Sentinel. “A deluge of South Floridians are falling behind on their monthly house payments, raising fears that many of the delinquent property owners will lose their homes to foreclosure this year and next.”

“‘Who knows how bad it’s going to get,’ said Richard French, president of the Broward County chapter of the Mortgage Bankers Association. ‘It’s a little scary to think about.’”

“Broward had 1,168 property owners with late payments in March, a 331 percent increase over the 271 a year ago, according to Realestat.com. Broward’s foreclosures hit 543 last month, more than double the 247 from last March. Palm Beach County’s late payments climbed 288 percent, to 888, from 229 last March.”

“Late home loan payments in both counties increased in each of the first three months of 2007. Marc Thomashaw, a VP for Realestat.com, was blunt. ‘We’re set for an explosion [of foreclosures] to happen between now and the next six months,’ he said.”

“Refinancing isn’t as easy because lenders are tightening credit standards. Last week, for example, Citibank and other lenders sent notices that they’re stopping 100 percent financing for borrowers who can’t prove two years’ worth of income, said Louis Spagnuolo, a senior mortgage banker in Boca Raton.”

“What’s more, South Florida’s slumping real estate market is holding down prices and preventing recent buyers from selling quickly to get out of financial trouble. ‘A lot of these escape valves are now shut,’ analyst Mike Larson said. ‘It’s not a pretty sight.’”

“Economist Mark Zandi agrees that short-term investors and others who bought within the past few years are most at risk of losing their homes. He said more mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures are inevitable due to a ‘noxious mix’ of aggressive lending, falling home prices and borrowers facing large increases in their monthly payments.”

“‘It bears close watching,’ Zandi said. ‘If it were to fall apart, the foreclosure problem would become very, very severe.’”

From Florida Today. “Brevard County’s soft 2006 real estate market will shrink taxable property values for the first time in recent history, according to preliminary estimates from Property Appraiser Jim Ford.”

“‘It’s certainly out of the norm,’ Ford said of the declining roll. ‘We don’t normally see a drop at all.’”

“After four years of double-digit increases, Ford’s estimates show a nearly 6 percent drop in existing property values in 2006, to $37 billion. The value of new construction sank 36 percent, to about $1 billion. Ford attributed the drop to a sluggish housing market, fueled in part by high insurance costs.”

“Sales of single-family homes last year dropped 34 percent, to 10,540. And the median selling price for single-family homes — the price at which half sold for more and half sold for less — was down 22 percent in September 2006 from a year earlier to $206,100.”

“Sean Snaith, director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness, said the lower tax roll was ‘not that surprising.’ ‘It’s part and parcel of the adjustment in the housing market right now,’ he said.




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93 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2007-04-17 05:31:12

‘According to Miami-Dade County Housing figures, more condo units were added in 2006 than in the last 10 years. The problem is, many of the units purchased during last year’s condo boom were bought by people who already had a primary residence and expected to unload the property for a profit, before the bank came calling.’

‘In March alone, there were more than 26,000 foreclosed properties — putting Florida in the No. 2 spot for real estate foreclosures nationwide.’

‘ Q: Most home builders have laid off staff and made other cuts. What are the chances that residential builders will start competing again with the commercial sector for employees?’

‘A: I think the layoffs that we experienced were the result of production demands. . . . If we go back 10 years and take a look at Central Florida, you would be hard-pressed to find someone doing more than 500 homes a year, [yet] by 2004 and 2005, builders were into the thousands and even 2,000s. So as quickly as they were able to grow, they fell just as quickly as production demands fell. So I really believe we saw the result of a cycle.’

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-04-17 06:40:22

“‘In March alone, there were more than 26,000 foreclosed properties — putting Florida in the No. 2 spot for real estate foreclosures nationwide.’”

And I don’t think we’re going to see the worst of those numbers until June or July of this year. Lots of ARMS resetting and lots of negative AM loans that are too far negative to continue making that minimum payment.

Comment by palmetto
2007-04-17 08:02:34

Bad Andy, I agree with you and I think this summer will be a very grim time here in Florida, the very definition of a “long, hot summer”. So much so, that some folks might be praying for a bad hurricane to relieve them of their home, with its high mortgage, insurance and tax payments.

BTW, if someone’s home got wrecked during a hurricane, is it possible for the homeowner to take a settlement to just pay off the bank, get a little money and walk away? How would that work? Do you have to rebuild? Or does it depend on the individual policy?

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-04-17 08:14:15

“Do you have to rebuild?”

They don’t have to rebuild, but remember it’s the land value that’s gone insane vs. actual contruction of the home. So if you’ve got a $500K McMansion insured to $280K that’s a total loss, you’re looking at a payout of $280K on the structure (less deductible obviously). Throw in a few dollars for contents and it still will be nowhere near the $500K they owe on the 100% liar’s loan.

So, if they have enough equity, they don’t need to rebuild and can pay off their loan and sell the lot. If they have no equity there’s not a lot of options. Even with a new home they’re still in a bad place.

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Comment by Michael Fink
2007-04-17 09:04:33

So, basically, the hurricane has suck the land the home was on back into the sea to get a full payout?

:)

Maybe that’s a good reason to buy beachfront condos?

 
Comment by Bad Andy
2007-04-17 09:55:15

“he land the home was on back into the sea to get a full payout?”

Insurance doesn’t cover land. Even if it’s washed out to sea. So in that case you really become a FB.

 
Comment by fran chise
2007-04-17 10:16:48

Obviously land doesn’t get washed out to sea, but you are right on about being a FB, especially in a state where the beaches are public to a certain mean tide level. My inlaws lost a home in Texas that way. No way to rebuild because the tide lines had moved inland. The land just became public and they couldn’t even claim the government took it…

 
Comment by Bad Andy
2007-04-17 10:22:41

“Obviously land doesn’t get washed out to sea…”

There are actually condo developments worried about just that. If they don’t get a seawall up before the next “big one” they’ll lose their building and the land it’s sitting on to the sea.

 
Comment by housing_apocalypse_now
2007-04-17 10:35:06

Land most certainly does get washed out to sea. This is slowly happening to Cape Cod, for example. It happened to Alabama and Florida during Hurricane Ivan.

And all beach is public in every state except for two, Maine and Massachusetts.

 
Comment by edward
2007-04-17 10:49:12

Land does get washed out to sea. Entire barrier islands have disappeared in previous storms. An island off of New York disappeared early in the 20th century because of a hurricane. Hog Island, I think the name was.

 
Comment by Bad Andy
2007-04-17 11:02:27

“Land does get washed out to sea.”

And it’s not insurable. Maybe Lloyd’s could put someone on this risk for you, but sure not insurable with a standard insurance company.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-17 06:06:03

“Crooked Stick Court” and “Great Bend (over) Place”

Did they think of these street names in anticipation of future depreciation, or what?

 
Comment by Quirk
2007-04-17 06:09:00

Sure as sprouting flowers, the For Sale signs that were taken down before St. Patrick’s Day are up again here in South Florida.

I love the new bandit signs…They’re so direct. “I Will Buy Your Home!” “Stop Foreclosure!” “Call Today and Walk Away!”

Comment by flatffplan
2007-04-17 06:15:07

wonder what they use as a factor-50% off 05 pricing ?

Comment by Ex-Boca
2007-04-17 07:35:57

I called one of those “equity locusts” when my house was for sale in Boca Raton, Fla. I paid $170,000 in 2000 and eventually sold it for $415,000. The equity locust told me they could only pay $240,000 “to make it work for them.” So the equity locusts wanted a 42 PERCENT discount from market value!

 
 
Comment by chicagobubbleblog
2007-04-17 06:19:38

“I love the new bandit signs…They’re so direct. “I Will Buy Your Home!” “Stop Foreclosure!” “Call Today and Walk Away!”

Seeing a lot of those up here too!

Comment by bob
2007-04-17 06:24:43

What is the gimic/scam here? What do these ‘investors’ get in this approach

Comment by Mikey(2)
2007-04-17 06:52:31

Has to be that they’re offering substantially below the market value (whatever that might be) with the intention of reselling (at more than he paid, but still less than perceived market value) to a bargain hunter who thinks he can either flip it or intends to stay in it for awhile. The key is for them to buy cheaply enough; it’s all in pursuading the owner that selling at 50% FMV is better than foreclosure, I guess. At least that’s how I see it.

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Comment by Anon E. Moose
2007-04-17 07:10:44

They’re called “Equity Locusts”. They’re looking for the owner who bought 20 years ago, never refied, and for whatever reason now can’t make the payments (illness, divorce, etc.). If you call them when you’re upside down, they say there’s nothing they can do to help you. It’s the basic to every single Carlton Sheets-type “MAKE MONEY ON FORECLOSED HOMES!!!” scheme.

There, I just saved you $129.98 you would have spent at 3AM tonight. How about a little love? ;-)

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Comment by bob
2007-04-17 07:35:00

sorry. I rent so i sleep soundly at night :-)

 
 
 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-04-17 08:19:23

I’m still seeing “real estate investor seeks apprentice” bandit signs here in Tucson. If I weren’t so cheap, I’d dial the long-distance number to learn more.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-17 06:21:30

We are in the midst of a war, so why not some vintage War?…

Pasco Kid was no friend of mine

Pasco Kid was no friend of mine

He drank the kool aide, some of us drank wine

He drank the kool aide, some of us drank wine

We met his financial demise, on the fort of Florida land

We met his financial demise, on the fort of Florida land

Eat the salted loan, was that your plan?

Eat the salted loan, was that your plan?

The loan outlaws had us pinned down at the fort

The loan outlaws had us pinned down at the fort

Pasco came in blastin’, he was that sort

Pasco came in blastin’, he was that sort…

Comment by palmetto
2007-04-17 07:42:57

Pasco County probably has the highest homeowners insurance rates in all of Florida, since Pasco has something like 90% of the sinkhole claims, according to my insurance agent. The development that has taken place there is shocking, I tell you, shocking! Considering the substrate in certain areas is like Swiss cheese and the developers know it and build with impunity over old sinkholes.

Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-17 08:18:23

I’m there for the waters…

 
Comment by snake charmer
2007-04-17 10:22:08

The development, both in south Pasco and any other place in this area that has been converted to suburbia in the last ten years, is also supremely inspiring. Many of those houses are mass-produced boxes utterly indistinguishable from each other. Because there are no landmarks, natural or otherwise, if someone removed the street signs people wouldn’t have any clue where they were, and locating particular houses would be like trying to find your car in a shopping center parking lot when you forgot where you parked.

In the midst of this, someone I know just listed his house, bought in December 2005, for almost $150,000 more than he paid for it. This can’t end soon enough for me.

Comment by Incredulous
2007-04-17 11:11:36

Today I saw two hand-lettered signs in South Tampa, both in neighborhoods that were virtually slums: one saying “I buy houses,” the other offering 750,000 loans to “stop foreclosure, pay off bills,” regardless of ones credit. Since these loan people are not spening their own money, they have no incentive to find borrowers who can pay the money back, but they must know that someone down on the food chain is being robbed. I cannot imagine how anyone can be so immoral.

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Comment by snake charmer
2007-04-17 11:13:18

Sorry. Meant “supremely uninspiring.” Note to self: proofread post before submitting.

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Comment by Quirk
2007-04-17 11:44:25

Low….Ri….der needs a little cash out.

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-17 06:24:50

So if I went into a coffee shop and ordered a short stack of pancakes and they did a short sale on said stack of pancakes, while I wasn’t looking…

Would I be hungry?

Comment by Michael Fink
2007-04-17 07:08:28

No, you would be full.

If you sold the pancakes short, you borrowed the pancakes with the promise of giving them back later. However, you ate them (reducing their value to 0). Therefore, you made 100% profit on your short sale, and you have a belly full of pancakes.

:)

Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-17 07:24:04

How many pancakes would be in a McShort Stack?

Comment by Michael Fink
2007-04-17 07:28:37

Well, if you define pancakes as a combination of flour, water, and eggs; I would imagine a McShort Stack would have 0 pancakes in them.

If you define pancakes as a round/oval shaped flat disk of light brown color with a runny brown substance typically applied for taste purposes, then I think a McShort stack would have 4 pancakes in them.

:)

:)

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Comment by housing_apocalypse_now
2007-04-17 10:37:12

I hope the original owner of the pancakes doesn’t call them in.

 
 
Comment by susann
2007-04-17 11:44:51

want to understand you-you mean someone sold your pancakes for less than you would have had to pay for them if they had not been sold out from under you?? Then yes you would be hungry because you would not have your pancakes to eat but, you would still have all the cash in your pocket that you were going to use to pay for thenpancakes, initially, so all you have to do is order more pancakes, there, here or anywhere where anyone makes and sells pancakes at a price you agree to. I don’t understand your analogy and i WANT TO-WILL YOU PLEASE EMAIL ME AND EXPLAIN. tHANKS, SUSANN

Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-17 15:10:37

I’m still hungry.

 
 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2007-04-17 06:31:23

NOT if you are very short in stature!

 
Comment by Ghostwriter
2007-04-17 06:31:27

Same stack of pancakes except now you’ll pay $4 instead of $5. Except you’ll owe the IRS taxes on the $1 difference.

 
Comment by bubbleglum
2007-04-17 06:35:09

“Christie Zimmer, who runs F.R.O.G. Realty in Land O’Lakes.

Wonder if they’re about ready to croak?

 
Comment by RJ
2007-04-17 06:35:51

“So is Christie Zimmer, who runs F.R.O.G. Realty in Land O’Lakes. ”

Ahhh, I’d like to buy a vowel Pat. Is there a “U”?

 
Comment by Bad Andy
2007-04-17 06:38:18

“Or 28418 Great Bend Place, also in Meadow Pointe, which was $419,900 in March last year. Now it’s for sale for $335,000.”

Good! Only $100K more to go and it will sell.

 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-17 06:43:47

“defying the optimists”

George Orwell would be so proud of these 3 words…

Comment by BubbleViewer
2007-04-17 08:01:51

The word that shows up most often (i.e. the “least unexpected word”) in economic headlines is “Unexpectedly.” Go figure.

 
 
Comment by jim A
2007-04-17 07:03:26

“Short sales are a way out for desperate sellers who want to avoid having their homes seized. Foreclosure suits rose 87 percent in Pasco last year, the biggest jump in the Tampa Bay area.”

WRONG This implies that the seller has some say in the matter. They really don’t. Short sales are a way for a lender to avoid the court costs and time involved in a foreclosure. The lender decides whether those savings are worth foregoing forclosure proceedings and the possibility of getting a deficiency judgement. The FBs wish to avoid foreclosure is irrelevant.

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-04-17 07:07:02

“WRONG This implies that the seller has some say in the matter.”

Sellers have all of the say until the foreclosure proceeding. If they feel they can get back on their feet, they don’t have to sell or go through foreclosure. If they’re in too deep, they can take the quick sale. That’s a MUCH better option for all parties involved.

Comment by CincyDad
2007-04-17 07:31:35

Short sales that have been happening in Ohio for the past 4 years that I’ve lived here. Any offer on the property is subject to lender approval, so the lender does have some say-so in the matter. Basically the banks give the homeowners a timeframe to try to sell it conditional to the lender approving the sale. If the homeowner doesn’t sell in the timeframe, or the offers are unacceptable to the lender, foreclosure takes place. In the one case I considered buying 3 years ago, the homeowners only had about 4 weeks to find an acceptable buyer. Considering this is Ohio, 4 weeks to find a buyer is a VERY short time. 4-6 months is typical, even in good times. Not sure if the house eventually sold or went into foreclosure.

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-04-17 07:38:45

“Considering this is Ohio, 4 weeks to find a buyer is a VERY short time.”

Better OH than MI or FL.

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Comment by fran chise
2007-04-17 10:21:41

Maybe 4-6 years in either place (MI because of economy and FL because of inventory)

 
 
Comment by Brian in Chicago
2007-04-17 07:58:58

If the price is right, 4 weeks is ok. I know a guy in NE Ohio that pays cash for a home, renovates it as if he were going to live in it. Cuts no corners. He then finds tenants that will treat a rental as if they own it and charges them below market rents to make sure they never leave. Also works with them over the years to remodel or add on to suit the tenant while being fair about the cost.

He thinks he can buy 5 of them this summer, so he is probably thinking the market is low enough to be worth it. Last I heard, he had somewhere in the range of 75 houses and has been at it for 30 or 40 years.

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Comment by zeropointzero
2007-04-17 08:32:20

4 weeks, in a stagnant/declining market, and offers “subject to bank approval” — sounds like a short sale, in many cases, is essentially the equivalent of a Hail-Mary pass at the end of the game. Doesn’t work very often, but, when it’s your last option, you gotta try it.

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Comment by susann
2007-04-17 12:11:08

Andy and Jim you are both a bit right and a bit wrong– the seller has no say ever , in a short sale-it’s short because the owner/deed holder owes more to the bank than the equity in the property. This imbalance of less equity than the amount owed can occur due to various factorslisted and could be due to only one of the factors or a combination of the factor:
1. value of property declines from the value of property at the time of the purchase.
2. owner has became delinquest in the payments and these past due payments and other late charges, fees, perhaps the unpaid escrowed home insurance and/or real estate taxes have increased the amount owed in excess of the amount of equity.

So the term short sale is a term associated with the lender, always, as it means the lender is willing to sell the property short, read - for less , than the amount owed to him/herself. Sell it short of the amount actually owed. comprehende??

 
Comment by susann
2007-04-17 12:18:36

But you do realize, do you not, that the seller must sell the property for enough to pay the entire balance due the lender, (unless the lender agrees to some discounted amount), all delinquent taxes, if any, any costs of selling, otherwise the new buyer will get clear title and generally intelligent people will not buy items to which they will not gain clear title. Logically, the greater the cost of the item purchased, the more likely a purchaser will want to ensure the item cannot be confiscated.

Comment by susann
2007-04-17 12:33:48

correction-new owner will not get clear title-sorry left out word “NOT”

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Comment by jim A
2007-04-17 12:36:08

Well the seller can SELL the house for whatever price the market can bear, so long as he pays the lender ALL the money that he is owed, including any prepayment penalties. They can simply continue to make the payments as agreed in their contract with the lender. It’s not that a FB has no options, but that they can’t CHOOSE to have a short sale in lieu of foreclosure. The choice between short sale and foreclosure is made by the party that’s considering foreclosing. So long as the FB doesn’t have any other assets worth going after, a short sale is often a quicker more efficient process of minimizing loss for the lender.

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Comment by Sobay
2007-04-17 07:06:03

” Citibank and other lenders sent notices that they’re stopping 100 percent financing for borrowers who can’t prove two years’ worth of income”

- We will not allow this to happen in California … after all -fruit picking is seasonal.

Comment by Michael Fink
2007-04-17 07:46:18

The power of those few words strung together:

“We are stopping 100% financing”

It looks so benign just sitting there between the quotes. Kind of like a shaped chuck of plutonium, sitting in the midst of a shaped charge designed to compress it in a uniform manner.

Such a small, senere sight.

And, those words will have exactly the same effect when the trigger is actually pulled. When 100% financing is gone, and when only those with good->excellent credit can get a low down loan….. A nuclear explosion in the bubble zones; with the fallout strewn across the entire country.

Who knew words carried such power?

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-04-17 07:55:35

“When 100% financing is gone, and when only those with good->excellent credit can get a low down loan….. ”

…we return to normal.

 
Comment by fran chise
2007-04-17 10:23:15

It’s scary that you understand the shaped charge thing…..planning on some land clearing?

Comment by Michael Fink
2007-04-17 10:34:17

ROFL,

No, no, no. I just was facinated with the physics behind nuclear weapons for quite some time.

It’s much like a warhead though, you have to have the right situation/environment, or else you get a tiny dud. Also, you need to reach critical mass before you have any possiblity of a reaction.

I think that nuclear explosions are a perfect example of a “tipping point” phenomenon. If you get 99.9% of the way there (to critical mass), you get a loud pop and maybe a little shrapnel. If you get the other .1%, a few square miles is vaporized. You have to reach the tipping point; otherwise nothing really happens.

That’s exactly what we are seeing in housing today. We have reached the tipping point; imho people just don’t realize it. People are reached “critical” credit/debt levels; as the subprime spiquit it turned off, combined with the falling home values, we have put in all the elements for a massive housing collapse. The “reaction” is set in motion, there is almost nothing that can be done at this point to stop the “explosion” from occuring.

Also, there is no land left in S. FL, therefore no possiblity of “land clearing”. :) (as per you local REwh**e)

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Comment by Bad Andy
2007-04-17 10:53:47

“Also, there is no land left in S. FL, therefore no possiblity of “land clearing”. (as per you local REwh**e) ”

I’ll give you no land left. You’ve got Lion Country Safari trying to get the zoning on their extra land that doesn’t exist changed to allow for subdivision style residential development.

 
Comment by fran chise
2007-04-17 17:22:22

Damn! I like their sign when I’m on the phone to make sure I don’t miss Seminole Pratt Whitney.

 
 
 
Comment by implosion
2007-04-17 23:02:01

…i.e., an implosion.

 
 
 
Comment by mrktMaven FL
2007-04-17 07:13:15

“‘2007 is going to be flat,’ said County Commissioner Ted Schrader, himself a landowner who sold to developers. ‘2008 is probably going to be flat, at least in the early part.’”

FLAT! OMG-LOL!

Comment by Michael Fink
2007-04-17 07:41:42

Well, if it’s flat until about 2020 I suppose affordability will be restored. :) Maybe he just forgot to mention that his prediction extends out another 12 years beyond 2008?

 
Comment by Betamax
2007-04-17 11:39:37

Had the same reaction–too funny!

 
 
Comment by nhz
2007-04-17 07:16:48

“Economist Mark Zandi agrees that short-term investors and others who bought within the past few years are most at risk of losing their homes. He said more mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures are inevitable due to a ‘noxious mix’ of aggressive lending, falling home prices and borrowers facing large increases in their monthly payments.”
Do we now how much of the equity gains in homes that were bought earlier has already been spent? If this percentage is high enough buyers from longer ago could get in trouble too as soon as price declines get serious (probably not really a short-term issue, but anyway). I don’t know about the US, but in Europe I am sure that many speculators who purchased early (like before 1995) have spent most of their huge equity gains on additional (often foreign) real estate. They don’t have much room either if prices start falling; in fact with all the leverage, they might be a bigger risk to the creditors than the FB’s who have zero skin in the game.

Comment by susann
2007-04-17 12:49:03

add tightening credit requirements and the lastest wrinkle, first time buyer’s fear of foreclosure and therefore, now avoiding home purchases, and here comes the real estate collaspe, (already started anyway, in March 2006), followed by major recession followed by stock market collaspe; and the stock market collaspe is also being fed by increasing gold prices and falling US dollar.

 
 
Comment by packman
2007-04-17 07:19:52

“‘Foreclosures have more than doubled,’ said Linda Pichler, VP for Consumer Credit Counseling Service of Central Florida.”

One thing we have to keep in mind when we here how much foreclosure rates have increased recently - foreclosure counts were very low in recent years relative to historic norms, due to the rapid home price increases and low interest rates. So a “doubling” of rates doesn’t mean they’re necessarily high; however the rate of incline is what’s significant.

It’s hard to find detailed historic foreclosure stats, but my impression is that we’re now about at historic “normal” levels, or at least slightly-high levels. Key though is that the rate of incline is probably the highest it’s ever been - thus we are heading to the stratosphere in the near future. Foreclosure stats are just now really starting to make the news - in the next year or two my prediction is it’ll be pretty much the #1 running topic in the news, due to it busting way past all-time highs in most areas, and really being considered a large portion of inventory of homes for sale, and a tremendous drag to the overall economy.

Comment by speedingpullet
2007-04-17 10:24:52

so true packman - its not the falling that kills you, its the sudden stop at the end….

 
Comment by Mike a.k.a/Sage
2007-04-17 23:49:01

Yes, But also consider the total dollar amount of those for closures, as compared to years past. Why does everybody overlook this subject?

 
 
Comment by michael
2007-04-17 07:38:46

RealyTrac’s foreclosures data in charts:
http://www.recharts.com/foreclosures.htm

Comment by flatffplan
2007-04-17 08:12:44

like he said - it doesn’t go back far
when we hit 1992 levels adjuted for pop growth- then you’re talkin

 
 
Comment by wmbz
2007-04-17 07:38:51

‘A lot of these escape valves are now shut,’ analyst Mike Larson said. ‘It’s not a pretty sight.’”

To me it’s a beautiful sight! Perhaps some leasons will be learned.

 
Comment by diogenes (Tampa)
2007-04-17 07:40:38

“What’s more, South Florida’s slumping real estate market is holding down prices and preventing recent buyers from selling quickly to get out of financial trouble. ‘A lot of these escape valves are now shut,’ analyst Mike Larson said. ‘It’s not a pretty sight.’”

Running for the exits, eh?

Anecdotal sidenote: One real estate company here in the Bay Area has started a billboard campaign. I have noticed them on both sides of the bay.
The sign say simply: “Exit Realty” is growing.

So, what’s in a name. Probably a lot. I’ll bet there phone has been ringing off the hook. There is also another company that picked the name “Equity Pro”.
I’m curious if that moniker is working any more?

Comment by palmetto
2007-04-17 07:48:07

diogenes, I, too, have made note of Exit Realty and it seems to me they are aptly named to position themselves as the realtor of choice if you are trying to sell your home during the bust. Their signs are proliferating around here (SouthShore Tampa Bay)

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-04-17 08:17:57

“Exit Realty”

The company referred to is a low commission agency. I don’t know what they offer for results, but if I’m an agent browsing the MLS to show clients homes, I’d go for a 3% cut before I settled for 1.5%…especially when there are so many to choose from.

Comment by Brian in Chicago
2007-04-17 08:43:56

I got a real estate license and Realtor membership as part of a software project (ridiculous rules about data access!). A good friend of mine is going to be selling his condo soon due to marriage (it is really small). Condos in his price range are still moving, but we both agree that the market is not good. His goal is to simply break even after all selling costs. I offered to throw his condo onto the MLS and charge him only actual costs and suggested that he would get a lot of attention if the MLS listing offered 4 or 5% to the seller’s agent. He agreed.

I have a feeling that as soon as agents see that commission percentage it’s going to the top of their showing lists. Shady but hey, that’s reality (or realty, however you want to look at it).

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Comment by palmetto
2007-04-17 09:22:50

I sold a property a number of years back (2000) by using a listing service where I paid $200.00 to be put in the MLS and paid 3% to the agent who brought the buyer. It actually worked out pretty well.

 
Comment by Bad Andy
2007-04-17 09:58:00

“…and paid 3% to the agent who brought the buyer.”

That’s the way to do it. And if you find an agent to list for 4%, it had better be 1% to the listing agent and 3% for the buyer’s agent.

 
 
 
Comment by gather no moss
2007-04-17 09:38:22

I’ve also seen them on the east end of Long Island and in Burlington, MA.

 
 
Comment by Michael Fink
2007-04-17 07:56:58

Oh, they are running.

What they don’t realize is that the exits have been welded shut and the ship is sinking. The smart money long ago slipped out of the room unnoticed (well, unnoticed by most).

And now the lemmings are sealed in a sinking ship on a direct path to the bottom of the ocean.

At least there is still some booze (HELOC) left in the bar; they can drink that on the way down.

:)

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-04-17 11:14:51

“At least there is still some booze (HELOC) left in the bar; they can drink that on the way down. ”

Funny you should say that Mike. I’ve always said during the muster drills on cruise ships that if the boat were ever headed down, I would go to the bar at the top of the ship and ride it to the bottom with the captain because there’s no way I’d survive the panic run to the lifeboats.

 
 
 
Comment by stanleyjohnson
2007-04-17 08:07:06

Yes but why is Larry Cinderella Kuntlow’s world still going up?

 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-04-17 08:08:44

anyone have that rental rate site ?
tia

Comment by sfbayqt
2007-04-17 08:51:03

Are you referring to:

http://www.apartmentratings.com/

BayQT~

 
 
Comment by Tom
2007-04-17 08:15:37

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are offering some new programs to shift the burden and risk of these loans from the subprime lenders to the GSE’s. Nice one. I guess since I stayed out of this irrational exuberence, I still have to pay as a tax payer for someone else’s mistake.

I reccomend to everyone to vote out the politicians that support this type of bailout.

Comment by susann
2007-04-17 13:09:24

I am so, so , so, so, with you. Is it akin to greeting every illegal alien who enters US soil to say here’s your monthly support check for food clothing and housing, no need to work and by the way feel free to scoop from any pockets and purses of any American cash for anything else you want, a trip to Disneyland, maybe a Lexus, some Jimmy Choo shoes…just help yourself.

 
 
Comment by Brad
2007-04-17 08:50:51

Land O’ Lakes

Talk Show Host Jay Thomas on Sirius yesterday did an interview with a guy who owns a nudist condo and resort development near Land O’ Lakes FL. Said he got into the nudist angle because he was a developer first and the nudity angle became his niche market. Says business is booming, $260K for a condo.

Comment by snake charmer
2007-04-17 10:30:38

Nudism has long been an important industry in Pasco County. There may still be a tiki bar up there called the Butt Hut, and I have heard rumors that there is a nude bowling alley. This is excerpted from a St. Pete Times article in 2001:

Nudism is big business in Pasco County. Five resorts are open to the public. … Collectively, nudists say, their resorts are the second-highest annual contributor, after Saddlebrook, to the county’s tourist tax revenues. Nobody in Pasco government disputes this statement, but confirmation is unavailable because the state does not release tax data on individual businesses.

More than tourist taxes are generated.

“Nudists tend to be upscale,” said Honey Rand, the county’s tourism consultant. “When they’re outside their complex, they tend to be spenders.”

Comment by Incredulous
2007-04-17 11:21:22

Upscale my eye; the biggest nudist resort in Pasco, Lake Como, is overrun with old hippies, and that other thing in front of it is a swinger’s condo. What a dump. Pasco County is absolutely horrible; a tribute to rednecks and tractor stores. The expensive housing developments are junk, and look it.

 
 
Comment by housing_apocalypse_now
2007-04-17 10:40:27

So when people are caught naked when the tide goes out, it won’t be just in a figurative sense.

 
Comment by phillygal
2007-04-17 11:07:52

Could this indicate a Naughty Bits Bubble?

Comment by Bad Andy
2007-04-17 11:24:33

“Could this indicate a Naughty Bits Bubble? ”

Not yet but soon.

Comment by palmetto
2007-04-17 13:51:52

LOL! Maybe post in the “Naughty Bits Bucket” thread.

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