April 18, 2007

From Housing Boom To Slump

The Baltimore Sun reports from Maryland. “The recent rise in foreclosures isn’t hitting only homeowners. An apartment complex just north of Baltimore that is in the midst of being converted to condominiums is in default and is to be auctioned off next month, the auctioneer said yesterday.”

“Daniel Billig, a partner with A.J. Billig & Co. Auctioneers, which is handling the scheduled auction, said the number of high-value foreclosures is abnormal. They include Triton’s and a condo conversion in Rockville. But Billig is also working on foreclosures of significant developable properties in Aberdeen and the Havre de Grace area.”

“Those four properties together are worth more than a quarter of a billion dollars, he said. ‘It’s pretty unusual to have cases this large, this many of them at one time,’ said Billig, who isn’t sure what is causing the increase.”

“‘Whether it reflects on the strength of the borrower or maybe their ability to hold [on] in a slower market, I can’t answer the question,’ he said.”

“Renovations of the 508-unit Rodgers Forge Condominiums, built about 1955, began last year as the cool-down in the housing market accelerated.”

“Residential foreclosures jumped an average of 10 percent in the Baltimore area last year, and the number has continued to rise this year, according to court records.”

“Economists blame the trend on the reversal from housing boom to slump and on risky mortgages buyers assumed to get their feet in the door.”

“The sharp slowdown in sales, which has killed some condo conversion plans in the Baltimore-Washington area, couldn’t have helped.”

“More than half of the Rodgers Forge complex’s approximately 500 units are vacant, according to the auctioneer. About 60 have been renovated, and a dozen of those have been handed over to new owners. Forty-four are under contract.”

The Maryland Gazette. “County home prices came down last month and sales slowed, signs the market is continuing to correct itself. There were 634 homes purchased in the county last month at a median price of $326,000, according to Metropolitan Regional Information Systems.”

“That price is a roughly 4 percent decrease from March 2006 and the first monthly decline this year.”

“‘I think we’re just seeing natural market forces at play,’ said Bob Burdon, CEO of the Annapolis and Anne Arundel County Chamber of Commerce.”

“Joseph Cater, chief economist for Market-Economics in Annapolis, said the collapse of the subprime market affects what he calls the ‘invisible group,’ low- to moderate-income families living in Annapolis and the surrounding area who are struggling with mortgage payments and cutting corners to make ends meet.”

“‘In some cases that’s not enough, and that’s why we’re seeing larger and larger increases of foreclosures,’ he said.”

“Widespread news coverage of bankruptcies has caused some uncertainty in the market, said Bill Hyland, an associate broker in Annapolis. ‘They’re not quite sure what the heck to do,’ he said, adding that he’s got 12 active buyers who are ‘waiting to see what happens.’”

“Realtor Frank Rosati said sellers who are ‘realistic’ with their prices will see homes move. ‘I tell sellers, ‘Do you want be on the market 14 days or 45 days?’ he said.”

“He said one Severna Park home originally listed for $445,000 was brought down to $425,000. It got an offer for $410,000.”

The York Dispatch from Pennsylvania. “For five years, a Lower Windsor Township couple have been buying, remodeling and reselling homes for a profit. But for the last six months, Jeremy Rauhauser and Karen Hake have just not been able to resell, or flip, a 50-year-old brick house in East Manchester Township.”

“About two months ago, the house-flipping duo even ditched their real estate agent and pitched a neon sign announcing the three-bedroom home was for sale by the owner, and reduced to sell.”

“‘He (the real estate agent) is a great guy and does a great job, but we’re looking for any way to sell this property,’ Rauhauser said, noting they reduced the price by about $20,000. ‘But so far, that’s not helped a whole lot, either.’”

“Home sales in York County in 2006 were stagnant, as the number of houses on the market remained high, making it more of a buyers’ market. There were 2,863 homes on the market in February 2007, compared to 1,386 in the same month in 2005, according to the Realtors Association of York and Adams counties.”

“A slowdown in the market is at least partially because of the 200-home developments popping up all over York County, said Rauhauser. He said he’s perplexed by the recent phenomenon of buying a large house with little property.”

“‘I think it’s a status symbol for people. They need a home that looks like $400,000, even if it was built in six days and who knows what might be wrong with it inside,’ said Rauhauser.”

“Barbara Crumbling in Windsor Township just put her four-bedroom house on the market. She hopes it sells before the end of July, when she and her husband plan to move to the South. ‘Hopefully, it’ll sell real quick,’ said Crumbling, who is opening the house up on weekends this month. ‘Though, there seems to be a lot of homes for sale out there.’”

“Jim Fry, another house flipper, has been trying to sell a home in Windsor borough for about four months. It’s the longest the Lancaster County man has held onto a property in the three years he has been flipping houses in the region.”

“‘I had a buyer, but they had financial difficulties,’ Fry said. ‘I’m not sure if it’s just harder to get a loan, or if everyone is expecting to buy a house without putting money down.’”

“Steve Snell, executive director of Realtors Association of York and Adams counties, said given the number of homes on the market, he isn’t sure if house flipping will still be profitable. ‘I don’t think there’s a real market for people trying to flip properties,’ he said.”




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80 Comments »

Comment by JLR
2007-04-18 09:22:11

those Rodgers Forge apartments were actually decent, in a nice neighborhood with a good school system … was horrible when it was decided to make them condos … i guess they might revert back to apartments?

Comment by aNYCdj
2007-04-18 18:31:17

What happens to the “Kondoze owners” when they revert back to rentals?

 
 
Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-18 09:23:25

Coup d’etat, Havre de Grace?

Comment by roguevalleygirl
2007-04-18 13:50:18

Coup d’ gras

Comment by Scavenger
2007-04-18 17:17:58

This blog has great comedians.

 
 
 
Comment by Bill in Carolina
2007-04-18 09:26:49

Anyone know what’s happening in the Rockville, Maryland area? A search on realtor.com for $500K to $1Million homes in ZIP 20853 shows remarkably few listings, given the number of homes in that area. Do local realtors there not bother with getting their listings on the internet?

Comment by Kevin Road
2007-04-18 09:30:38

Bethesda, Rockville, and Potomac inventory just recently started rising. There was a pick up in sales in Feb and March in all cities mentioned. Lately, Bethesda sales seem decent, but Potomac and Rockville houses in 500k - 1m are pretty beat.

 
Comment by Dan
2007-04-18 14:44:18

I suspect that realtors do not want their listings on the Internet because other realtors will have an easy time finding the house’s physical location and contacting the owner in order to get the listing for themselves.

Realtors hide their own listings because quite frankly, it’s the only thing that differentiates one realtor from another.

Comment by sf jack
2007-04-18 20:00:25

Rich? This one’s for you. Custom made, in fact.

Helloooo… Rich? Anyone there - anyone home?

Just to make the point again:

“Realtors hide their own listings because quite frankly, it’s the only thing that differentiates one realtor from another.”

 
 
 
Comment by Lisa
2007-04-18 09:30:23

“I’m not sure if it’s just harder to get a loan, or if everyone is expecting to buy a house without putting money down.”

EXPECTING to buy a house without putting money down? Excuse me? If this doesn’t sum up this trainwreck in one sentence, I don’t know what does. The sick level of entitlement, I deserve it, I want it now, I don’t want to save, I don’t want to pay off my CC debt first, is just disgusting.

These people deserve whatever they have coming.

Comment by Robert
2007-04-18 11:54:27

Not sure why I would put money down if I did not have to. Rather have the cash in the bank as a cushion. Money put up in this market is just lost equity

Comment by gwynster
2007-04-18 14:11:23

I was firmly of the 20% down crowd but lately I’ve changed my mind. I’d rather take that 20% and stick it in treasuries. Downpayments are lost opportunity money now. And yes I find that really wrong on so many levels.

Comment by JJ
2007-04-18 14:34:56

Treasury rates are

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Comment by JJ
2007-04-18 14:37:46

My previous comment was cut off….

Treasury rates are 5% or less. In that 20% that you are putting down you are saving 6% (interest) or more. Why would you choose to put the money in treasuries?

I could understand it if you went for a higher yielding alternative but I don’t understand what you’re motivation is.

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Comment by gwynster
2007-04-18 14:47:14

Maybe it’s just that I have so little confidence in the market. I keep trying to find a way to buy but it still makes zero sense here in No Ca.

 
Comment by HARM
2007-04-18 14:48:43

I think his point was, since prices are clearly heading downward, any money used for a down payment now is basically being flushed down the toilet (unrecoverable). So, if you insist upon buying right now –even though it’s clearly a bad idea from a fincially responsible saver standpoint– it’s better to get a $0-down loan than risk any of your own money.

If things go bad (likely), you can always just mail the keys to the bank and walk away. Thanks to no-recourse status on your (un-refi’d) mortgage, your credit rating may be hosed for a while, but you’ll get to keep your assets intact (including securities). Under that scenario, even a crappy 5% return + principal is better than zip.

 
Comment by gwynster
2007-04-18 16:04:39

Thanks Harm - you said it better then I did.

 
Comment by implosion
2007-04-18 18:08:34

I agree. Time for a rethink about how to buy the next house.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Mikey(2)
2007-04-18 09:30:48

“‘He (the real estate agent) is a great guy and does a great job, but we’re looking for any way to sell this property,’ Rauhauser said, noting they reduced the price by about $20,000. ‘But so far, that’s not helped a whole lot, either.’”

They think the RE is doing a great job but the house hasn’t sold yet. My guess is that the RE agent wanted them to lower the price more, but they didn’t want to do that, so they fired him. It’s easy to sell the house - lower the price, people, LOWER THE PRICE.

Comment by phillygal
2007-04-18 12:20:39

Additionally these two have been flipping properties for the duration of the boom. They should be sitting on a nice little cushion of profit.

But no, they won’t lower the price to unload the last “sweet deal”. Greedy f@cks.

 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2007-04-18 12:02:40

REIC is spending money to bring this “community” site down!! LOL

Comment by flatffplan
2007-04-18 12:14:16

hard getting on from 2-4pm
realwhore coffee break time ?

 
Comment by Doug in Boone, NC
2007-04-18 12:21:53

Damn! If they succeed, this will be the third site I’ve participated in that was brought down. The only thing I can conclude is that I must be hanging out with the right crowd — the people who know what is really going on and have to be shut up before the truth gets out!

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2007-04-18 12:24:30

No, there was a power problem.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-04-18 13:57:53

And I missed you. All of you!

 
 
Comment by Not Mssing It
2007-04-18 12:25:09

Serious? Sounds like the big banks always trying to bring the roof down on the credit unions.

BTW builders stocks making a run at it again. Trying to sucker in small investors in a last ditch effort.

 
Comment by pressboardbox
2007-04-18 12:25:35

Well, DL has been trying to hack it for about a year now. What else has the man got to do with his time?

 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2007-04-18 12:04:34

“Barbara Crumbling in Windsor Township just put her four-bedroom house on the market. She hopes it sells before the end of July, when she and her husband plan to move to the South. ‘Hopefully, it’ll sell real quick,’ said Crumbling, who is opening the house up on weekends this month. ‘Though, there seems to be a lot of homes for sale out there.’”

Crumbling? A poster girl is born.

Comment by chicagobubbleblog
2007-04-18 14:46:52

I know her first husband…Mr. Heloc.

 
 
Comment by Patch Tuesday
2007-04-18 12:05:34

Can someone please explain how Realtytrac is reporting only 14 REO’s in Maryland, yet Countrywide by themselves is reporting 41 on hand?

http://www.realtytrac.com/ContentManagement/pressrelease.aspx?ChannelID=9&ItemID=2123&accnt=64847

http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/excite-com/news-story.asp?guid={3D27B76F-BE9D-4328-95A2-6707FB17E3DD}

http://www.countrywide.com/purchase/f_reo.asp

http://countrywide-foreclosures.blogspot.com/

Comment by Dimitris
2007-04-18 14:28:17

The 41 by countrywide is what’s shown on their site for April. The link from realty trac is for February. Either way though, Here’s what countrywide’s inventory on MD was for Feb:
1/31/2007 23
2/10/2007 25
2/15/2007 26
2/17/2007 26
2/22/2007 26
3/8/2007 27

Also, I noticed that for Mass they show zero for REO’s, which is almost 200 now. Something obviously wrong with that data.

Comment by Patch Tuesday
2007-04-18 14:34:33

This is hilarious because just several weeks ago I posted that in my opinion NOBODY had a handle on any true numbers. This just goes to prove that theory and further prove that the media eats any dog food given to them by anybody who even remotely appears to be authoritative…

 
 
 
Comment by flatffplan
2007-04-18 12:09:28
Comment by RJ
2007-04-18 14:07:15

Stale data, try these guys:

http://www.emailforeclosures.com/

Comment by RJ
2007-04-18 14:15:00

for Patch Tuesday, wrong comment

 
Comment by zee_in_phx
2007-04-18 15:06:10

nice site thanks, any more of these type would be appreciated.

 
 
 
Comment by stanleyjohnson
2007-04-18 12:10:23

If housing, construction and lending are getting worse why did finanicals, SandP reach an all time high today? Something really strange is going on.

And why is larry cinderella kuntlow going to so happy in about an hour?

Comment by Casa$Loco
2007-04-18 12:25:35

I can only guess that there is heavy and widespread market manipulation going on. I remember the same thing happening right before the dot.com crash. It’s like the big boys are trying sucker more people into thining “this time it’s different”. But, rest assured, they’re *selling* into every rally.

Comment by Observer
2007-04-18 13:49:05

It’s probably because the economy and housing at this point in time aren’t as bad as most everyone on this blog says they are.

I believe there is a housing bubble but I’m beginning to think that prices won’t significantly decline until the unemployment rate goes up. There are too many people working and too many people spending money to keep housing and the economy from dropping too far. Perhaps a year from now it will be a different story but I don’t expect large housing price drops in 2007.

Comment by GH
2007-04-18 13:58:18

I believe the issue is that the housing market is like watching a supertanker runnign ashore in slooooow motion. I suspect the housing market is headed bad places, but will take FAR longer to get there and in a non linear fashion - ie it will have some bounces all the way down and even a mini rally or two. As to employment, in bubble areas like San Diego, employers need to pony up two to three times wage increases at the professional end to make the numbers work and I do not see this happening, prices are just insanely out of sync with wages it is not funny, so employment may not be all that relevent here. Further, as real estate slows, one of the main employers (real estate related) over the past 5 years is drying up, creating a self fullfilling cycle down. Bearish ? sure, but I believe practical as well.

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Comment by SoBay
2007-04-18 14:12:54

Agreed.
I work in the beach area in So Ca and prices are slow to drop. My mother lives in the High Desert and it is a much lower income area. There are tons of houses for sale and forclosures… the income is also low. Prices are easily dropping fast as the reality sets in - they can’t service their debt on the retail wages. But, this all takes time to cycle out to the public via the news.

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Comment by gab
2007-04-18 14:46:37

If they’re “selling” into every rally, then how are they manipulating the market higher? This post displays a shocking lack of knowledge re: the securities markets or basic economics.

 
 
Comment by pressboardbox
2007-04-18 13:35:32

I can’t watch Kuntlow today. I would rather eat dog turds.

Comment by stanleyjohnson
2007-04-18 13:56:28

I watch to see how happy he is telling us about some story never told than switch to Gibson.

 
 
Comment by Austin Martin
2007-04-18 13:41:36

Actually I heard a fact last week that borrowing on stocks was at an alltime high(even higher than the peak of the dotcom boom). So it appears as though people are trying to make up for home equity losses in the stock market by doubling down.

 
Comment by crispy&cole
2007-04-18 13:44:01

Great short opportunity?

 
Comment by diogenes (Tampa)
2007-04-18 13:59:52

Check out the after -hours trading of all the builder stocks. Big gains today are all loses tonight.
Selling into the rally.

 
 
Comment by phillygal
2007-04-18 12:16:57

He said he’s perplexed by the recent phenomenon of buying a large house with little property.”

“‘I think it’s a status symbol for people. They need a home that looks like $400,000, even if it was built in six days and who knows what might be wrong with it inside,’ said Rauhauser.”

Welcome to the world of “House as Screaming Display of Wealth”…when in most cases it’s actually a sign of Stanley Johnson proportion debt.

In my area it’s about a 50-50 split of who can really afford their McMansions, and those who are stretched. What are the overextended people going to do when credit tightens, and they can’t conspicuously consume in order to keep up with their more well-off neighbors? Will their nerves crack under the strain?

I can’t summon up any sympathy for the wannabes . There are too many people with legitimate troubles who really deserve some love.
I think I’ll need to stock up on popcorn to watch the fallout of soccer mommies having to appear in public toting last year’s Prada bag… Oh the humanity!

Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-04-18 14:01:07

My parents live outside of Philadelphia. We’ve got a good family game going, and that is to sit quietly next door as the neighbors overextend themselves.

Did I mention that the neighbors are in construction? And that their home improvement projects are moving at a MUCH slower pace than in 2005?

We’re pretty sure that they’ve found a new line of credit to keep the party going. And I’d like to know if such things can be revealed through a search of Chester County public records.

Comment by Dab
2007-04-18 14:33:15

Something very creepy about this comment…

Comment by HARM
2007-04-18 14:52:38

Nah… it’s called “free entertainment’ c/o FBs. Very popular in my neck of the woods –and guaranteed to be coming soon to a neighborhood near you!

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Comment by lost in utah
2007-04-18 18:41:21

what’s creepy about it? oh, I get it, what’s creepy is spending your future earnings on trying to impress people with how stupid you are.

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Comment by BlackOrchid
2007-04-18 15:00:37

I haven’t been able to find much on ChesCo unfortunately, I’m a curious spectator out here too. I do know that houses are sitting, sitting, sitting - prices not moving - at least on the ones I’m curious about. There’s just way too much inventory in Chester County, despite was conventional wisdom says.

Comment by BlackOrchid
2007-04-18 15:01:43

duh, I meant “what” CV says.

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2007-04-18 15:17:19

Orchid, I’ve taken a quick look at the county’s official website, but as far as I can tell, property ownership records are locked down tight.

OTOH, here’s how things work here in Tucson:

http://www.dot.co.pima.az.us/gis/maps/landbase/parsrch.htm

You, too, can search for info on your favorite Tucson flippers! And FBs!

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Comment by lost in utah
2007-04-18 18:35:21

Don’t you mean, “Oh, the humility” ??? Hmmm, yours works OK, too.

 
 
Comment by auger-inn
2007-04-18 12:24:17

“Realtor Frank Rosati said sellers who are ‘realistic’ with their prices will see homes move. ‘I tell sellers, ‘Do you want be on the market 14 days or 45 days?’ he said.”

“He said one Severna Park home originally listed for $445,000 was brought down to $425,000. It got an offer for $410,000.”

So this guy is implying that it would have sold for 445K if the seller would wait another month? Sign me up for that program, I’ll wait the month for the extra 30K! Unfortunately, Frank is blowing smoke with this statement.

 
Comment by SOMDGuy
2007-04-18 12:26:31

I live in southern Maryland and have heard nothing but, this place is different, land is limited around here, or we are so close to DC as prices of real estate went too high to fast. Glad to see it is finally showing up in the media that prices in MD are dropping.

The house next to me sold for $425K, when they were asking $500K in Aug 06. The guy that bought it was so happy to brag about the deal he got because it is a great time to buy, and how he was keeping is other house because, “He wasn’t going to give it away”. I wanted to tell him in another year the house price will probably drop another $75K in value and now is a horrible time to buy because the bottom isn’t close to here yet. Also take what you can get for your other house, because it is only going to get worse. To be nice I just smiled and told him he got a great deal.

Comment by Not Mssing It
2007-04-18 13:49:45

Hey I see it at the carnival all the time, guys spending $12 to win a freak’n gold fish in a jelly jar

 
Comment by phillygal
2007-04-18 13:58:45

To be nice I just smiled and told him he got a great deal.

I dunno if I were in your shoes I may have said something like: “Mercy me how privileged I am to live next door to the Real Estate Genius of the Western World!”…

maybe you can pick up his house cheap when he gets foreclosed

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2007-04-18 18:40:46

As I have learned from Ebay and Craigslist……..

Sometimes you have to “Give it away” and use the cash in hand to pay the phone bill like by 5pm or is cut off!

 
 
Comment by pressboardbox
2007-04-18 12:30:11

F*uck it! I’m buyin’ a couple lux condos in FL. Freddie’s got my back and it is time2buy. Just wait until I get my 2% fixed relief adjustment - you guys will be soooo jealous… oh yeah, I’m thinking I can get full relief on association fees as well… and taxes. SWEET DEAL as the Casemeister would say.

Comment by kThomas
2007-04-18 13:38:17

You’ll have power. Influence. Women (if that’s how you swing) will all want to have your baby.

Sycophants of all sorts will be there to shower you in praise.

 
Comment by Not Mssing It
2007-04-18 13:54:45

jealous?…not me! I just met with a lender and my new Sh*tBox will be all paid off in 2107!!

Comment by OB_Tom
2007-04-18 14:29:35

That’s the funny part about the Fanny/Freddy 40 year mortgage rescue plan. Even if they introduced 100 year loans, it wouldn’t make a difference for the FBs that thought the 1.5% teaser rate was what they were paying. The principal payment on a 30 year 6.2% mortgage is about 15% of the total payment the first year, 8.5% on a 40 year mortgage. Is a 6.5% lower payment going to save these guys. I think not.

 
 
Comment by Steve W
2007-04-18 14:34:11

First you get the condo, then you get the power, then you get the women

Comment by lost in utah
2007-04-18 18:46:56

what if you’re a woman?

Comment by Scavenger
2007-04-19 07:49:12

You still get the women… hehehe.

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Comment by pressboardbox
2007-04-18 18:48:27

now that’s funny!!! Love tony montana quotes!

 
 
 
Comment by mike
2007-04-18 14:06:10

“A Severna Park home was listed at $445,000. Later the price was dropped to $425,000. Then an offer came in at $410,000.” It doesn’t say if the offer was accepted but if it was, and the new owner wants to sell in 2007, 2008, 2009 and possibly 2010, the numbers will probably be, “Listed at $410,000, lowered to $380,000 and had an offer of $350,000.”

People still are not getting the message which is: (1) Exotic loans are toast unless you have a FICO of at least 680 to 700 AND can provide documentation that you have an income which will SAFELY let you pay a mortgage. (2) Inventory will take years to level out. (3) Most important of all - AFFORDABILITY. People making $30,000 or $40,000 a year cannot SAFELY afford to buy $500,000 or $600,000 homes and pay the taxes and pay the maintainence and the insurance and put away some dollars in case of an emergency like illness or unemployment.

Everything is out of whack where property is concerned. There simply is no alignment and it’s going to take years (with several ups and downs) to come into alignment.

Comment by kThomas
2007-04-18 14:31:43

America(ns) got way greedy…again. They learned nothing from the Dot Com fiasco. [BTW, Greenspan knew this (a large-scale equity increase) would happen when he slashed rates for his boy Bush, when the idiot became President. The Banks ALSO knew this would happen, leading to bankruptcies....which is why they had their little dogs in Congress pass those nice new bankruptcy laws...conspiracy? YES] So much for the Ownership Society (that’s one of the most Orwellian terms I have ever seen)

Most of the alignment will be several downs.

It really makes me laugh. My own father, God bless him, sat with me one day back in late 2004, pontificating to me about real-estate. “You can;t lose”, he said. “Show me something that goes up 20% in value every year”, he said.

Needless to say, I am MORE conservative than my dear father. And paid no heed to his mania-babble. A year later, he tells me that he going to invest in properties in AZ. I warned him, up and down, that he’s looking at a blackhole disguising itself as an “investment”.

He listned to me, and not his greedy, low-life mortgage broker “freind” trying to rip him off. The property he was going to invest in was in the middle of the damn desert! WTF?

This country DESERVES to go into a large-scale recession or worse. Sometimes a sharp punishment is the only thing that will make people act with wisdom and common sense.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2007-04-18 15:22:18

“This country DESERVES to go into a large-scale recession or worse. Sometimes a sharp punishment is the only thing that will make people act with wisdom and common sense.”

Not sure if it DESERVES to, but it certainly NEEDS to for anyone to learn anything and for things to return to “normal.” I’ve said a few times here that my generation (I’m mid-30s) has no clue what bad times are. We’ve only seen the good times. We’ve only been encouraged to take financial risk. And for the most part, we’ve been rewarded by doing so. Until now. The tide has turned.

 
 
 
Comment by DJ
2007-04-18 14:20:28

A nice little piece.

Pimco
U.S. Credit Perspectives
Mark Kiesel | May 2007

Still Renting

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Global+Markets/Global+Credit+Perspectives/2007/U.S.+Credit+Perspectives-+5-2007.htm

Comment by MD_Renter
2007-04-18 14:45:25

I’m trying to figure out how this real estate agent in Annapolis has 12 active buyers who “don’t know what to do”. Who are these people and why are they buying now? Well, I guess they are useful. At least they’ll bring the comps down for me.

 
 
Comment by James
2007-04-18 14:54:55

I think you guys should also take in to account how much pressure Greenspan put on the banks to lend out money. They keep sending all that money out there spurring inflation. As a banker you are going to be pushed to keep up with that.

The other odd thing is we had massive inflation in M3 but the feedback mechanism was muted by China just sitting there and absorbing all that debt. It will be a heck of a mess when all those dollars pump in to circulation.

Really close to some runaway inflation effects or long term deflationary spiral.

China is on the other end of this and will get burned.

OTOH they could spend that money over here and improve the life of Joeteapack in their own country.

That would stimulate incomes over here and balance things out.

Of course the rich people would fight that tooth and nail. Incomes rising=inflation… at least that is what I have garnered from all the inflation data.

 
Comment by ChaseMonitor
2007-04-18 15:04:42

Chasing Chase Foreclosures
Rate of Foreclosures by JPMorgan Chase in OH Raises Concerns Nationally

Recent news that JPMorgan Chase is driving the foreclosure crisis in Ohio’s capital raises serious questions about what the financial giant may be doing to communities elsewhere in the state and around the country.

As The Columbus Dispatch writes:

“JPMorgan Chase is drawing attention for the number of its mortgage loans that end up in foreclosure. Chase mortgages accounted for a larger share of foreclosures in Franklin County than those made by other local banks…”

(“Chase foreclosures run high,” April 17, 2007). http://www.columbusdispatch.com/dispatch/content/business/stories/2007/04/17/ChaseForeclosure.ART_ART_04-17-07_C1_DH6DENA.html

Research by the Service Employees International shows JPMorgan Chase JPMorgan Chase accounts for 1 in 12 home mortgage foreclosures in Franklin County, Ohio—home to the state capital of Columbus—more than twice the bank’s share of home loans in the market (www.chasemonitor.org). Although defaults on sub-prime mortgage loans are fueling a foreclosure crisis from coast to coast, Ohio leads the nation with the highest rate of foreclosures overall. In Franklin County, the foreclosure rate is twice the state average, and JPMorgan Chase’s foreclosure rate is twice as bad as the countywide average—indicating that JPMorgan Chase is a major contributor to the worst foreclosure crisis in the country.

The same study finds that foreclosures by JPMorgan Chase also have a broader “spillover” impact on homeowners who do not default on their loans. In 2006, JPMorgan Chase cost Franklin County homeowners $15.7 million due to depreciation in the value of houses surrounding properties foreclosed by the bank. Meanwhile, the spillover effect from home value depreciation had a disproportionate impact on communities of color, as homeowners in areas most affected by JPMorgan Chase’s foreclosures were low-income and people of color.

With JPMorgan Chase in the running for lucrative underwriting work on $120 million in public bonds for construction of a new county courthouse, workers and community leaders have taken these issues to county commissioners—with great reception as The Columbus Dispatch reports:

“Franklin County has yet to dig a hole for its new courthouse, but foreclosure is already a concern.

“Union and community leaders asked commissioners yesterday to use their weight to force JPMorgan Chase, chosen last month to help the county borrow money for its new Hall of Justice, to change its practices.

“Otherwise, the leaders said, taxpayers will be doing business with one of the region’s foreclosure kings.

… ‘You’ve raised some very troubling issues about foreclosures,’ Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy told the group. ‘They (Chase) should be asked to respond.’”

(“Some question bank’s role in county project,” April 18, 2007) http://www.columbusdispatch.com/dispatch/content/local_news/stories/2007/04/18/commis18.ART_ART_04-18-07_B4_E36DS6F.html

As the third largest bank in the nation, the real question for consumers and homeowners from coast to coast is: Where else is this happening?

 
Comment by Frieda Fortune
2007-04-18 16:38:32

The Rockville property (DC Area, Montgomery County, Maryland) referred to in the Baltimore Sun Article, up for auction, is the former Pavillion apartments, now the Monterey, on the corner of rte 355 and Montrose Road. That building was built in 1967 and needed lots of work. It is in the process of getting a cosmetic face-lift, but according to the auctioneer, for most (all but 4) of the apartments the renovations were either not begun (half) or are incomplete (half). There are thousands of new condo units recently constructed or converted within a few mile radius, plus some new apartment complexes, as well as more new apartments and condos that are in some stage of planning. The 16 story bulding with 434 units is being sold as a complete building. The developer paid lots of money to evict the tennants, and probably protection money in the form of campaign contributions to the County Council to get them to agree to the conversion and eviction. I guess tennants will get a chance to move back. The web site for the auction is
http://www.ajbillig.com/2007/monterey_montrose5901.htm

 
Comment by Frieda Fortune
2007-04-18 16:38:32

The Rockville property (DC Area, Montgomery County, Maryland) referred to in the Baltimore Sun Article, up for auction, is the former Pavillion apartments, now the Monterey, on the corner of rte 355 and Montrose Road. That building was built in 1967 and needed lots of work. It is in the process of getting a cosmetic face-lift, but according to the auctioneer, for most (all but 4) of the apartments the renovations were either not begun (half) or are incomplete (half). There are thousands of new condo units recently constructed or converted within a few mile radius, plus some new apartment complexes, as well as more new apartments and condos that are in some stage of planning. The 16 story bulding with 434 units is being sold as a complete building. The developer paid lots of money to evict the tennants, and probably protection money in the form of campaign contributions to the County Council to get them to agree to the conversion and eviction. I guess tennants will get a chance to move back. The web site for the auction is
http://www.ajbillig.com/2007/monterey_montrose5901.htm

 
Comment by lost in utah
2007-04-18 18:52:01

“More than half of the Rodgers Forge complex’s approximately 500 units are vacant, according to the auctioneer. About 60 have been renovated, and a dozen of those have been handed over to new owners. Forty-four are under contract.”

How weird would that be, to be one of 12 owners in a compex of 500 units, half empty, the other half renters?

 
Comment by Reluctant Relocator
2007-04-18 21:13:55

Regarding the Annapolis, MD article - Anne Arundel County has a population of about 510k people. 634 sales in a county that size is almost non-existent IMO.

 
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