Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For April 20, 2007
Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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currency report / daily show
valuations china contruction stocks / nasdaq geloaded
Credit derivatives - At the risky end of finance / Economist
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/
“The country’s building and machinery stocks trade on average for 166 times profit for the past year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s about nine times the price-earnings ratio for the average company in the Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index, and higher than construction stocks in any other country in the region…”
166 times!!! Maybe the Dow/S&P is undervalued…
you’re shtin me
that can’t be right
Maybe it was just a bad week here, for cheap Chinese goods?
Lost in battle:
$9.00 shovel fell apart
$56.00 coffee pot’s lid literally fell apart
$7.00 broom fell apart
Lot of falling apart, to report.
A $56 coffee pot? I buy ‘em at local market for $18 what did you buy a Plentyofbucks espresso machine? LOL Have a great weekend Aladdin Sane!
Cheap exports reduce inflation:
China is now responsible for about 90 percent of the world’s toy exports, 50 percent of its apparel exports and 16 percent of its exports of consumer electronics.
In addition, its purchase of US assets helped reduce US interest rates by about 0.15 percentage points during the period, the survey said.
However, the survey said that China’s imports in the energy sector has pushed up world inflation by increasing commodity prices. Its huge demand for oil, for example, contributed to a 22.5-percent increase in the world oil price between 2001 and 2005.
In total, China’s imports of energy resources helped boost the annual inflation rate in the US by 0.23 percentage points, in the EU by 0.35 percentage points, and in India by 1.11 percentage points, over the period 2001 to 2005.
The country accounts for 45 percent of the world’s cement imports and 20 percent of its aluminium and copper imports.
China Daily April 20
Hoz,
I know $56.00 seems exorbitant, but we bought the “does 23 things” version of a coffee pot…
In a moment of weakness~
OH !!……I got one of those also…It doubles as a pressure cooker….
Hey, nothing’s too much when you’re talking about an addiction… I know all about coffee, even though it’s only marginally legal here in the great state Utah (here we have green jello instead of green kool-aid).
I refuse to buy anything made in China as I have found out that nothing lasts. We are on year two of this bouycott and are wondering when everyone else will figure this out,. Has the world gone mad, or do people not respect the value of their money anymore?
You shouldn’t buy electronics for the long term. Technology changes so rapidly nowadays that the device you buy today is outdated and obsolete tomorrow.
I always try to determine the country of origin of things I buy, but I don’t automatically exclude any country.
Part of it is the hope of finding American-made goods (still possible if you look), but part of it is rewarding businesses that pay decent wages as a percentage of product cost. At the shoe store, I can find Italian-made shoes for the same price as Chinese-made shoes. If the styling and quality appears the same, I’ll buy the Italian ones. The company is more likely to be focused on quality and comfort than pure profit, because clearly they could ship their manufacturing over to China and cut costs by 50% or more. Anyway, that’s who I want to buy from.
Basically, if I’m buying Chinese products, I’m looking for the cost savings associated with the lower costs of manufacturing. Oh, the quality better be there too or else there’s no point. I have no interest in filling my apartment with junk.
You shouldn’t buy electronics for the long term. Technology changes so rapidly nowadays that the device you buy today is outdated and obsolete tomorrow.
I disagree. Do your research and choose smartly. My 10-year old stereo handles an iPod just as well as any made today. The sound quality matches anything made today. Etc. The build quality makes me think it will last another 10 years, at least. Though it’s certainly possible that I would buy something else sooner. Maybe once HD radio is common enough to make purchasing a receiver worth it.
I’m not on a total boycott like you, but I try to find things made in the USA first, then Europe or Japan. I bought a toaster that never worked right, so finally threw it away and read Consumer Reports. Bought one of the highly rated toasters, American brand now made in China, and it worked well for about 4 months, then began to perform terribly. Until 10-15 years ago things like toasters, coffee pots, gardening tools lasted and lasted. I too wonder when more people are going to get smart and quit throwing their money away on junk. Maybe there will eventually be a backlash towards quality over quantity.
American made shoes: http://www.munroshoe.com/comphist.htm
Nordstrom carries the ladies line. Conservative and really comfortable.
http://www.sasshoes.com/
No its not Nappy headed ho’s……
Its the San Antonio Shoe compnay i have extra wide feet and these are American made and they Last….but are not cheap.
NYC DJ - I walk to work. My shoes are my car - I have no problem paying ridiculous amounts of money for good shoes. My feet are fairly normal, just a bit larger than average I guess. My main problem is finding shoes that don’t look funny when you get to a size 12 (a European 45 usually works best). I think many shoes are designed with only a 8 or 9 in mind, which is strange because you don’t usually see too many short people in the business world these days.
If the Chinese can’t do pet food right?
101 years ago Upton Sinclair wrote “The Jungle”, an amazing work of fiction, steeped in reality.
Another favorite quote, from him:
“The private control of credit is the modern form of slavery.”
Which is why the bleatings about Chinese autos and aerospace might be a bit alarmist.
At least in the near term (next 10 years?).
Referring to:
“Comment by aladinsane
2007-04-20 09:14:40
If the Chinese can’t do pet food right?”
Wasn’t it this blog that was talking about the lack of control over what goes into Chinese goods - e.g., radioactive metals, etc. It was an enlightening education and made me very very wary of Chinese anything (I dunno, maybe Chinese people are the exception to that statement)…
but they are maybe still better buys than the 8 times last years earnings pe ratios from the us builders…
The “average” price-earnings ratio could be almost meaningless, depending on how they’re computing it. For example, one stock with very low but nonzero earnings could have a PE of a billion, and skew the average, if they’re just taking the mean of a bunch of individual PEs.
The right way to do it would be to add all the companies’ earnings and divide their total market capitalization (”price”) by that. If, IF, they’re computing the average that correct way, then 166 is a good sign that a crash is coming (that would be up in the region where the internet stocks were, PE-wise, before they tanked).
Hi all. Obsessive reader, infrequent poster here. I just wanted to share a bit of good news from Florida. An elderly relative had been on the fence for years about moving into an assisted living facility. She finally decided to make the move last year but needed the money from the sale of her Bradenton 3/2 house to do it. Good luck, right? Well, the sale just went through yesterday at a decent price ($299K) even after a series of close calls. The sale was contingent upon the buyers selling their place, which was contingent upon them selling their place, to subprime buyers whose purchase was contingent on financing, etc., etc. The only thing that kept it together was that the buyers really wanted to be in this particular community, due to its proximity to some of their relatives. If it weren’t for that bit of luck, my grandmother would not have been able to follow through on what was already a very depressing and stressful decision for her. There were very few lookers other than these people. Meanwhile, I was trying to sound optimistic to her, but I was reading this board and really dreading the effect that not having a sale would have on my grandmother and her plans for her last years. Whew!
Had your grandmother put the house in your name 3 years ago, she might have been able to get on medicaid and move anyway, without selling the house.
Thanks, DJ - as if we taxpayers aren’t already paying for enough things. Let’s let everyone hide their assets and give them welfare.
…….do you take legit deductions on your tax returns?
Are you confusing reducing one’s tax liability with welfare? Please explain.
Some people don’t want to have loved ones go into a medicaid facility. My husband was looking into getting into elderlaw until he realized it was filled with children dumping their parents into medicaid to increase their inheritance. The greed sickened him.
MY ONLY COMMENT IS YOU MORONS VOTED REPUBLICAN….
They were the ones who wanted old people to pass on their homes to their kids and stiff the guvmint with end of life medical costs…..dam da trooth horitz!
That is good news, tightwad. My late mother’s retirement and health care was largely funded by the sale of the family home and enabled us to provide her with decent care in her last days. We, too, were holding our breath last year when we were waiting for the sale of the co-op to which she had downsized to close, so I understand how you feel.
You forgot to mention the ‘assisted living facility’ who counted on this person to come, made their investment planning accordingly, can now hire instead of fire a nurse, who can keep paying her overpriced condo with a toxic loan…
Today the chain got saved!
That says it all.
I am happy for your grandmother. It’s nice to read about a happy outcome for someone who isn’t a speculator, a victim, a ninny, a greedster, or a fraud.
I hope the transition to a home works well…it’s never easy.
AND IT KEEPS ON DROPPING:
3901 S Ocean Dr APT 5G, Hollywood, FL 33019 —
ZESTIMATE™: $398,806 What’s this?
Value Range: $354,937 - $474,579
30-day change: -$46,684 Last updated: 03/19/2007
——————————————————
3901 S Ocean Dr APT 5G, Hollywood, FL 33019
ZESTIMATE™: $380,667 What’s this?
Value Range: $338,794 - $456,800
30-day change: -$13,295 Last updated: 04/17/2007
The website you speak of was slow to get the fact that prices were dropping and therefore is putting 30-day changes MUCH higher than it shoulc be.
Example in my neighborhood would be a trademarked value of $299,900 or a loss of $37,000 in the last 30 days. In reality, that home is worth $279,000 and it’s lost another $5,000 in 30 days. The trademarked value is still high and doesn’t reflect that homes in my area have been going down for the last 12 months.
This may have been posted yesterday but Nacchio (Qwest CEO) was found guilty and may get up to ten years in the big house.
“According to the Justice Department, Nacchio sold his Qwest stock during the first nine months of 2001 when he knew, but didn’t reveal publicly, that Qwest wasn’t likely going to meet its publicly stated financial goals.
He also was accused of providing investors with very bullish financial projections while he was told by Qwest co-workers that the company’s revenue was slumping.”
Paging Mr. Toll and Mr. Mozilla, please come down to the DA’s office…
http://tinyurl.com/ywhp5s
SOLD!
April 20 (Bloomberg) — H&R Block Inc., the largest tax preparer in the U.S., agreed to sell its money-losing subprime home-loan unit to Cerberus Capital Management LP at a discount as defaults by the riskiest borrowers surge.
Cerberus will pay the cash value of the so-called tangible net assets of Option One Mortgage Corp. when the deal closes, less $300 million, H&R Block said in a statement today. The company will take a pretax charge of as much as $320 million in the fourth quarter, which ends on April 30, to reflect the lower value of the assets, it said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aj6vuojsIFZs&refer=home
I guess cash back doesn’t work the same way when buying a mortgage lender as opposed to buying a house financed by a mortgage lender.
This “deal” looks like an attempt to prop up HRB short-term. Long-term, this could still blow up in their face.
HRB mentions the January 31 value ($1.3B) of Mortgage One in the press release. Everyone knows it’s not worth that now.
HRB will be paid $300m less than the value of Mortgage One when the deal closes.
The deal isn’t expected to be complete until October 31st. Hmmm… surely the value won’t decline before October 31st? Of course, the stock is up 10% in pre-market trading.
I know of very few people that can think in the distance any further than say, 2 weeks…
We’ve trained ourselves just how good the “just in time” lifestyle has been for us.
Amen, Lad.
It’s all about the monthly life preserver.
one of my closest friends works at cerberus capital
surprise surprise he is very wealthy
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/19/AR2007041902924.html?nav=hcmodule
“Five months later, I lose $100,000,” Taylor, a high school teacher, said. “I don’t think I can take $100,000 into the stock market and lose it faster.”
Hahaha! There is some funny stuff in that one!
That is one angry-looking FB.
has that ruth baderhof ginsberg look going on
SNORT!
More like “Mean” Jean Schmidt, Congresswomen from Ohio-2. See here pic here: http://www.house.gov/schmidt/
Haha… I like this one even better!
Nice situation: divorce and short sale…that sux. I am surprised at these people making such big moves/purchases within a year of deciding to split. One wonders how much has to do with financial strain…so much for “richer or poorer”.
That’s one frigid looking ex-wife.
that county has med income of over 90K
and 2% unemployment
WTF a HS teacher buying a 500k house
they like to talk poor…….
I know a teacher who got in over her head in NOVA. Apparently all the other teachers kept bragging about the thousands of dollars they had made, and told her if she didn’t buy she’d be priced out forever.
Rising prices have that psychological effect.
…and dropping prices have an even stronger psychological effect the other direction……..
Exactly. I’ve noticed in countless builder ads lately the words “limited time offer” etc., and on the radio stuff like “now is the best time to buy”. Trying to create urgency.
Six principles of persuasion ICialdini):
- Committment & consistency
- Reciprocity
- Authority
- Scarcity
- Social proof
- Liking
Realtwh*res and builders use ALL six of them to the max.
“And if the lenders do forgive the debt, the Internal Revenue Service will consider it taxable income. On Wednesday, Reps. Robert E. Andrews (D-N.J.) and Ron Lewis (R-Ky.) introduced a bill that would make such a forgiven debt non-taxable.”
Perhaps the only piece of “bubble legislation” of which I would approve. It seems our do-nothing congresscritters are learning quite a bit about the housing market all of a sudden, enough to understand the concept of a “short sale”, anyway, and introduce legislation. But why am I not surprised they haven’t a clue what is going on until it is too late? Ex-Congressman Mark Foley was busy soliciting young men via his laptop during legislative sessions. Maybe now that he’s out of rehab and spending more time in his former district, he’ll be able to tell some of his formers cronies about the bubble in Florida.
our first GOP bailer
fck em
If someone helocs the equity out of their house would the forgiven income err debt be tax free? What about the cruise to the Bahamas, Corvette, and the plasma television that was rolled into the mortgage as “incentives”?
We need to have a zero tolerance policy for bailouts because that is one slippery slope.
“We need to have a zero tolerance policy for bailouts because that is one slippery slope.”
True, but not entirely. I said yesterday that I have a person that I work with that is up to 15.625% on their mortgage after the teaser rate. This is predatory plain and simple. Yes, they should have read the papers, but no it’s not fair to any customer REGARDLESS of credit. Bad credit car loans are cheaper in some cases.
My plan: Lower the rates to the neighborhood of 7 or 8% fixed over 30 years. If the borrower is able to pay at that rate, they keep the house. Otherwise they can hit the road. This hurts no one…not even the bank because the foreclosure rates will drop.
I am not a lawyer but cannot legitimate plaintiffs find remedy in the present court system? Predatory lending, fraud, missrepresentation, etc. have not just recently materialized out of thin air and neither has stupidity.
I don’t know that the court system can find an interest rate too high and require that a lender lower it. If someone is in law and can give an outline of how that might work it would be helpful.
“….This hurts no one…not even the bank because the foreclosure rates will drop….”
Bad Andy, you are not thinking clearly. These idiots you want to cut some slack have driven real estate prices thru the sky with their credit drunken sprees. They have hurt all of us who showed restraint and patience and refused to spend over our heads.
You say “…Yes, they should have read the papers, but no it’s not fair to any customer REGARDLESS of credit…”
Andy, F*em. Go buy them some reading lessons. But don’t ask me to bail out idiots who have driven the housing cost to 300% over true market. They are not the only idiots here, but they drove the truck. Don’t make me come over there and rip your arm out and beat you with it.
” But don’t ask me to bail out idiots who have driven the housing cost to 300% over true market.”
You’re already paying for it with declining values and an economy which is bound to go into recession soon. What do you think will happen when all these FB’s lose their homes? A homeless problem? Worse? Continued downward spiral of the home market?
If they are willing to continue at their already overpriced mortgage amount, how are you paying for it if there is a rate reduction? The cost of your credit isn’t going to suddenly go up.
Don’t blame borrowers who have a single property. Blame the real estate agents who convinced them to buy now or be priced out forever. Blame the fast food workers that bought 10 “flipper” houses and blame the late night infomercials.
The bill is H.R.1876 but the text is not yet up on thomas.loc.gov - I would think it will be online by Monday.
Anyway, the title is “To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to exclude from gross income of individual taxpayers discharges of indebtedness attributable to certain forgiven residential mortgage obligations.”
So they will be preventing taxation on “certain” forgiven obligations. I’ll be checking back next week to see what “certain” means. I hope it doesn’t include HELOC money used to buy cars and TVs.
With the democrats having instituted “Paygo” budget rules, these congresscritters will have to come up with a source of revenue that offsets this reduction. How about an additional tax on every homeowner who’s current on his mortgage payment. Let’s really $crew those who do the right thing.
I for one agree with this legislation. It seems hypocritical to me *not* to tax people on the capital gains when they sell a house for profit. But when someone sells at a loss and someone forgives a small portion of their loan, they get a 1099 thrown at them at the end of the year.
I know someone who went through this several years ago and she had the IRS on her *ss for three years until she finally paid off the tax lien (plus interest & penalties).
Tax capital gains on RE that will balance it out. Sit back and watch the outcry from most legit homeowners.
Why on earth would you approve of this legislation? So the FB HELOC’s to the heavens, defaults then doesn’t have to pay tax on the income from the good old HELOC days.
Why should we taxpayers give these people a break? I completely oppose this legislation.
And even if it isn’t the poster ‘live the high life on HELOC and default’ situation, doesn’t this bill set up a situation where there is a deduction (for the lender) on one side, but no income on the other side?
How long is it going to take the financial engineers to game that one? They’re probably working on it already.
Ditto.
Shocker.
“The National Association of Realtors(R) supports legislation that would change the current law that forces individuals to pay an income tax when they have had a part of a mortgage loan forgiven or have been forced to foreclose because of their inability to pay their mortgage.”
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/news_press_release,91637.shtml
I think the federal government will fix the bubble about as well as they’ve fixed New Orleans.
Never going to happen. The bank lobbyists would never allow it. That would make walking away from your obligation to the bank much much much more appealing an option - a hit to your credit score would be the only penalty at all. And it would essentially kill all the prepayment penalties that they wrote into their contracts.
Never going to happen.
sure hope you’re right polly.
Bankers/lenders got the home buyers on contracts with their federal reserve creating money out of thin air.The serfs will have to pay one way or another. One day the scam will be in the”open” and the questions of how in the hell did the federal reserve[private banks] print so much paper money, lower all loan standards from the past, and our own government “looking the other way” when this was all happening? Of course unless the government knew what was going to happen. Perhaps more intelligent people will start asking questions. Until then, its business as usual and the serfs will continue to pay the elite until one day the system [scam] is discovered.
Just guessing without reading the article, is he a math teacher?
Okay, everybody, go read Lou’s latest post on the armored truck vs. car confrontation. If you think the comments on the HBB are tough, wait ’til you see what people post on Lou’s blog!
$2.69 for gas! Sign me up!
The man is sitting there bleeding and handcuffed while his cohort is lying there dead in the car, and the only thing you care about is the gas sign. You are one cold-hearted individual.
Heh! That’s what I like about you people.
Yes, this is troubling. Everyone says DC is diffferent because its soo job rich & more stable because the jobs in one way shape or another are mostly government based. But it does not matter, if you get too far ahead of yourself and over extended and something comes along to upset the apple cart then you’ve got a problem. If the critical mass of foreclosures is large enough even DC could tank as deflation hits housing and a recession upsets the local jobs market.
DC government jobs = secure job with minimal raises.
People just about to get married or with spouses just about to enter the work force so they are about to double their household income could afford some of the toxic loans. Nobody else could.
However, far out from the city there is excess inventory. Near in to the city, it is more of a credit bubble issue than an inventory issue. However, when the credit practices really tighten up, there will be blood in the Potomac.
“DC government jobs = secure job with minimal raises.”
And VERY VERY generous benefits (health care, retirement) not seen anywhere in the private sector these days. These people are livin’ large on the government teat while people in “flyover land” struggle to get by and hope they don’t get sick…
I have little to no sympathy for anyone on a government payroll anywhere (federal, state, local) who somehow manages to screw themselves into the ground, financially….
It would take a heart of stone to read about his plight without laughing.
pace Oscar Wilde
“It would take a heart of stone to read about his plight without laughing.”
LOL.
Great find, Sniggle. Imagine the chill that must be going through countless FBs in the Washington DC/Northern Virginia area as they contemplate the reality that they can’t possibly bring enough money to the table to sell their tanking “investment.”
Not a good time in this asset class cycle to get divorced. Unfortunately divorces can not wait another 15 years until the next cycle catches wind…
‘Upside Down’ Home Sellers Owe More Than They Get
By Nancy Trejos
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, April 20, 2007; A01
Jeffrey Taylor and his wife bought their dream home in Purcellville for $538,000 last August. Now they have to sell it because they are getting divorced and neither one can afford the mortgage alone.
The most they could get for it was $430,000. After paying all the real estate commissions and taxes, they will still owe the bank $118,000.
“Five months later, I lose $100,000,” Taylor, a high school teacher, said. “I don’t think I can take $100,000 into the stock market and lose it faster.”
And this should be my problem… why?
I am sure it will be my problem. Just like I and millions of other taxpayers pay billions to move beach houses owned fatcats 100 yards inland, I’ll be asked to pony up and help out this poor distressed teacher.
Guess you read Stossel’s book? It’s a good one.
Great article!
You buy a 538K house with your spouse 8 mos ago…and now you’re getting divorced? I doubt that their marriage 8 mos ago was peachykeen. Poor insight, poor planning, enjoy the 100K loss.
Obviously one of the two thought that buying a home together would help fix things. It happens all the time, but usually with a less expensive purchase.
Alternatively the monetary stress of overpaying for their accommodation caused the breakup. Maybe they underestimated the other costs associated with buying, or the bills caught up in a big way.
I personally saved the marriage of friends many, many years ago, by forcing them to fully calculate the consequences of their planned expenditure. (I had just been made aware that they were trying to start a family, and that the wife did not plan to return to work thereafter.)
“…one of the two thought that buying a home together would help fix things…”
Probably right — just increase the thickness of the chains. Sure, that’ll work.
“I don’t think I can take $100,000 into the stock market and lose it faster.”
1. He obviously saw his house as an investment.
2. When everyone comes to his realization above, it will be the appropriate time to buy RE (for investment or simply as a place to live).
More stories on local foreclosures in the DC metro area from the Washington Post: http://tinyurl.com/yvmmxw
Ignore: same article as in above thread.
unless a 3rd party gets elected or Jerry Ford comes back in DC area will only lose half of what the national average loses- same as last time-Purceville is in the woods,yo
I don’t know about the rest of you?
But, I keep my W.I.N. buttons handy, in case the mess-iah named after a car, makes his return, to save us from ourselves.
I wouldn’t count on it though.
When you are only comfortable trashing the leader of our country after you’ve passed away, you didn’t pass my smell test.
Sorry jerry.
coulda stood up, but no.
I hope it’s not limited to just Purcellville - I am down in Central VA and we’ve had a big influx of folks who cash out of NoVa and then come down here to ‘retire’ and drive up our prices quite a bit. If things retrench up there, it will really help ease regional pressure.
This will probably get flagged, but before it does, take a peek and see what can happen to a renter who rents from someone who is very possibly an FB.
http://tampa.craigslist.org/apa/315279939.html
You should really know if the association is OK with renters BEFORE you sign a lease!
That guy is a moron, goes to get his deposit back and then pays the owner $100 for his trouble?
Most people would assume the owner has already made sure it’s ok. Geez, one more friggin’ thing to have to worry about when trying to find a place to live.
“Geez, one more friggin’ thing to have to worry about when trying to find a place to live.”
This is an easy one. Takes one call to the condo association. And if the guy was stupid enough to pay the owner $100 for his “trouble” he needs to be banished to the short bus for life.
Totally agree he was an idiot. Just saying, I’ve rented many condos over the past 16 or so years (I moved back and forth to Chicago from Philly twice so I’ve been in a lot of rentals) and never once did it dawn on me to check with the association to see if renting was ok.
“never once did it dawn on me to check with the association to see if renting was ok.”
The one time that I did rent a condo there was a mandatory background check so I really didn’t get a choice. Since I was dealing with a real estate agent, I don’t think I would have looked into…I would however have had some recourse.
Totally agree he was an idiot. Just saying, I’ve rented many condos over the past 16 or so years (I moved back and forth to Chicago from Philly twice so I’ve been in a lot of rentals) and never once did it dawn on me to check with the association to see if renting was ok.
You didn’t need to check to see if renting was ok (at least in Chicago). The standard Chicago lease clearly states that the Lessor delivers possession to the tenant and that if they are unable to deliver possession the rent is abated (pro rated). And the tenant has the option of canceling the lease, which then obligates the landlord to return the security deposit within 45 days.
Second, municipal code states that a landlord cannot evict a tenant if the landlord accepted full payment of the rent due.
If the landlord were to prevent you from using your apartment after you paid for it, that’s called a lockout, which is illegal. Municipal code provides a fine of $200-500 a day, and the tenant may sue for twice the actual damage or two months rent (whichever is greater). Oh, and the landlord has 45 days to return the security deposit.
If the HOA prevents renting units, that’s a dispute between the landlord and the HOA. The HOA doesn’t have any power to interfere with the tenant. They can only force the landlord to do something. And all the costs are born by the landlord. The tenant need not worry.
I suspect that these measures exist pretty much everywhere.
I would just stop paying until I was “even” money wise, then move. He should be able to live there two months…that would square the money and makes things right…
An Oklahoma story
I live in a neighborhood of nice older homes (mine was built in 99) abutting a neighborhood of brand-new McMansions on tiny lots. I talked to one of the owners of one of the new McMansions while walking my dog yesterday. They’ve been in the place less than a year but are already building a new house because for whatever reason their place just isn’t satisfactory.
There are literally a half-dozen similar places for sale within a block or two of her house (including 4 vacant spec homes), and the typical time on the market in this neighborhood is six months.
I admit I bought here a few months ago (and was roasted for the decision) but I bought a place for $104/sqft. I think I probably overpaid by about $4/sqft but I admit there were some non-financial decisions at work when I bought. The nice lady’s place was about 4200sqft I’d guess at more like $125/sqft. Around here that’s luxury pricing (to be honest they do a much nicer job inside these places at that price than anything I saw out west).
Anyway, I think the people asking 125/sqft in this neighborhood are gonna get creamed or sit on them for a lonnng time. If they’ve already started building their next place and aren’t ready to pay two mortgages for a year they’re dead meat. Not to mention the transaction costs of doing it twice within a year.
and that Ngas country , right
if you can see a rig you’re ok for now…….
So you’re happy that someone else made an even worse financial decision than you did?
(Sammy: you’re misspelling “schadenfreude”)
I was posting about the inanity of buying a house to live in for less than a year before commencing new construction, especially when their place will sit in competition with a half-dozen spec houses in a neignborhood where most places sit on the market for an average of six months. And if prices fall even 5% they’ll be hurting big time.
As for my own situation - I doubt you’ll be feeling schadenfreude at my expense. I have >60% equity and a PITI payment of about 1500/month on this place. I am lucky enough to do software-related work where I can bill LA rates but live cheaply here in OK. Moving a family into a rental sucks for a lot of reasons and we were all a lot happier when we got out of our rental digs in OK and into a place for the long term.
schadenfreude \SHOD-n-froy-duh\, noun:
A malicious satisfaction obtained from the misfortunes of others.
[Doh! Hate it when I misspell my own handle. Also, thanks for the amplifying comments on your situation.]
“live in a neighborhood of nice older homes (mine was built in 99)”
1899????, that would be an “older” home. My first home was built in 1873–my family laughed about my “new” home when I bought 1918 vintage.
Since when is 1999 older? My house was built in 1987 and it’s the newest home I’ve ever lived in. My first house was built in 1978 and my second was built in 1952.
I’ve just moved from a 1780 house…to a 1860 house… does that count as new?
lol
Loafer
1977 house here…
We had to dismantle all the disco lighting, upon our arrival.
“We had to dismantle all the disco lighting, upon our arrival.”
We had to remove our “electric blue” flooring and countertops in our 1978 beauty! Loved that house, hated Michigan.
My uncle’s house in the UK was built about the same time the Mayflower set sail…
When I am bad I have to sleep in the barn, 1887.
1985, 1933, 1773 and now 1935. The 1985 was junk compared to the others. Depression era homes are usually particularly well built and if restored, wonderful homes to live in.
I meant 1980 for house #1….same thing, junk.
An 1899 “Grand Dame” Victorian for $104 / sf, restored, good area? Nice! I’d buy that in any market (and even for 2x $104/sf or more than that)…the combo so rare.
Oops….you mean 1999….good luck with that…
Bear Hunting Season
“Back in February just as he began to lick his chops, had his bags packed for a rout, his salmon wrapped, he came dancing out of hibernation courtesy of a spicy Schezwan dip, only to get ambushed.
My take away in hindsight is that the hunters who ambushed Boo and his band of merry shorts were option expiration arbs. They Shanghaied all those who shorted at the March lows. To be sure, these hunters are an emboldened species stepping into the deepest, darkest most dangerous regions of the forest to stalk Boo and all his critter friends. These hunters aren’t necessarily as smart as they are emboldened. How so? Well they have one hell of a weapon - the Bernanke Bid. They don’t need no stinkin’ camouflage. Although the fed has pulled M-3 from its quiver of public scrutiny there are a few sportsmen out there who know how to track the Green billed, White Collar, double throated hawk (which I’m told does a fine impression of a helicopter )….”
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=12650
I look at the Dow getting ready to break 13,000 and wonder what is driving the market higher. When I don’t understand what is making things work I get very very nervous, even more so when I have my hard saved money involved. Frankly, this makes no sense to me, and I wonder if there is some other instrument that I could invest in that operates in a way that does make sense.
My sentiments exactly, Sig!
Google and McDonald’s exceeded expectations on their earnings reports.
If the internet and fast food are OK, I guess all is right with the world as far as Wall Street is concerned.
“GUANGZHOU: McDonald’s and KFC, both of which have been heavily criticised recently for underpaying their part-time workers in Guangdong, are to set up trade union branches across the province.
Speaking yesterday, Kong Xianghong, vice-chairman of the Guangdong Provincial Trade Union Federation, said: “McDonald’s has set up a preparatory committee, comprising representatives of both employees and management, to help set up the union, and it is hoped the branches will open in May….”
“Also, Yum! Brands Inc (the operator of KFC)’s Guangdong branch has approached the local trade union federation for guidance on setting up trade unions.”
China Daily
http://tinyurl.com/3xqk3o
Its pretty easy to make a large profit by stealing from the employees.
How do you underpay someone who works for peanuts?
Pay them in Soy Beans.
Look at the action on the individual stocks and what is attributible to the action in the ETFs. I am told the indicies are being bought–not the stocks.
From Laura Rowley at http://www.finance.yahoo.com
Last week, Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) proposed that the federal government spend hundreds of millions of dollars to help bail out subprime mortgage borrowers who are defaulting on their loans.
A report by the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, which Schumer chairs, estimates that the average cost of a foreclosure — to the homeowner, lender, local government, and neighbors (whose homes decline in value) — is $78,000. By contrast, preventing the foreclosure would cost $3,300 per home on average.
No Good Sense
“It makes good sense to make sure families and neighborhoods are protected from rogue lenders and lax government oversight,” Schumer said in a speech last week, adding that he’s working on the legislation. “It’ll save homeowners from losing their equity, save cities and local governments from losing their tax revenues, and save neighborhoods from taking a big hit.”
Our government makes ZERO sense… “make sure families and neighborhoods are protected from rogue lenders ”
Then WHY are we giving these rogue lenders money to protect their ass… Its NOT a bailout to the FB… Its a bailout the the shark lenders.
geez, joelin, Why are you trying so hard to introduce logic and rationality? Those statements are soundbites for JULS. “Saving and Protecting” gets votes escpecially when coupled with “Neighborhood, and Family, and Big-Bad Lenders”
When was the last time a government estimate of cost EVER came in close to the number they state?
Actual costs for government expense are almost always several multiples of the estimated cost.
Hammers and toilet seats for military contractors in the 80’s, the recent government drug bill, the iraq war, the price of the latest jet fighters - government cost estimates are a scam.
FBs flipping out:
“Carmel (Indiana) - Around 3:30 p.m. Wednesday, Carmel Police were called to a home on Stagg Drive after a relative became concerned that they had not heard from the people who live there. What police found was a woman’s body and a crying, unharmed 16-month-old boy. There was no one else inside the house.”
“According to our partners at the Indianapolis Star, court judgments against the Paulsens for debts added up to $700,000 and included unpaid Woodland Country Club fees, auto, and personal loans.”
http://www.wthr.com/Global/story.asp?S=6401553&nav=menu188_1
It just illustrates that we can never know what hell exists behind the facade of a McMansion.
Carmel is Indiana’s iteration of the keeping up with the Joneses lifestyle. Doesn’t surprise me that something like this happened there.
Today’s Kool Aide Flavor:
Fruit Punch
For the Indiana Jones, in some of us.
Discussion of housing decline on jobs and impact on illegal immigrants.
Getting the Big Chief Tablet Back Out;
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=686
California real estate, circa 1835…
http://www.amazon.com/Two-Years-Before-Mast-Narrative/dp/0375757945
Anything to get out of college. I also loved the way he described San Diego harbor, when the current reverses itself again….
A slacker for his time~
Home ownership = perpetual debt. Like many seamen once on never off.
Some take the boom bust theory quite literally!
“Basque Country is not for sale”
Yesterday, 04/19/2007, 3 bomb attacks were committed in South West of France against symbols of the real estate speculation. A real estate agency, a building promoter and a secondary home of a Parisien lady, just sold but not yet closed.
Nobody got injured, because the bombers informed the authorities before the explosions, saying “Basque Country is not for sale”.
Media is asking themselves if this is just to get attention with the
presidential election on sunday. Or is this the beginning of a wave of attacks?
http://www.lexpress.fr/info/infojour/reuters.asp?id=42306&1335
Oh, the Basques, the really do know how to make an “explosive” statement.
this CAT news is so obnoxious. soon we will new a “diamond lane” just for tractors in san diego.
Irish real estate market in trouble!
Property slump bites as staff laid off in leading estate agents
According to the latest figures from the Permanent TSB/ESRI House Price Index, national house prices showed no growth in February of this year, while prices in a number of sub-sectors of the market declined slightly due to high interest rates.
“It’s diabolical at the moment,” said one agent who did not wish to be named. “And I would expect more redundancies in the sector in the next few months.”
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1816692&issue_id=15538&eid=292832
Re: Rent
Last night on one of the local news stations, I caught the end of a segment on the dire affliction known as “rising rents.”
I’m not sure what myth they’re trying to propagate, because if one looks at rents here (thanks to Patrick):
http://patrick.net/index_rent.html
They will see that as compared to this time last year, rents have stabilized in the SF Bay Area. And the 3bds steadily declined from then and flattened recently.
SF Jack;…..I have been considering moving to the city for 6 months….No car…I ride my bike….I want to be close “to everything” and in a safe location…Only need 1 bedroom..Rent amount is not a issue…Can you give a recomendation ?
Where & what 6 month period ??
Depends what you like to do…
Foodie? Come anytime and live just about anywhere.
Artsy-fartsy? Same. Except maybe live east of 19th Ave and Park Presidio and be able to ride or walk everywhere you want to go.
Sailboarder? Come for the summer and live in the Marina.
Cyclist or off road bike rider? Come spring, fall or winter and live north of Geary (or GG Park) for easy access to Presidio, in order to get to the GG Bridge and Marin without getting killed by a vehicle.
Surfer? Come spring or fall and live in the Sunset or Outer Richmond.
Baseball fan? Come in the spring or summer (but certainly not the fall, the Giants aren’t that good…) and live in SOMA/South Beach and walk to the Park.
Jonesing for urban Mexico? Live in the Mission between Mission Street and Potrero Ave near or on 24th.
Socialite? Come in the fall, stay through the winter and try to crash parties all over town from a Pac Heights pad (mentioning the right address will aid in your cause). As well, the same neighborhood and Presidio Heights are good places for seeing rich Congressional members with plastic surgery.
Fan of entrenched interests, petty, small-minded politics? Civc center is walkable from all surrounding neighborhoods and be sure to keep Supervisors meetings on your agenda.
In San Francisco, over-the-top smug people are everywhere (yes, even the homeless), but so are good people (again, including the homeless).
Oh, and you did ask about “safe”.
Well… you should definitely research this more, but I would start by avoiding Bayview/Hunter’s Point, Ingleside, the southeast side of Potrero Hill, the Tenderloin and the Fillmore (south of Geary to at least Grove or so)… and SOMA around Sixth Street is certainly not favored, either. Same for parts of the Inner Mission and some of the Civic Center area, particulary near Market.
And hills!
For bikers, you want to avoid living higher up (considering the ride home from activities) in Russian Hill, Nob Hill, Pac Heights, Cole Valley, Twin Peaks, Diamond Heights, Bernal and Potrero… to name only some of the areas. Others you want to avoid because you have to go over hills to get anywhere (West Portal comes to mind if going anywhere but to SF State, Stern Grove or to Ocean Beach; though it does have a working Muni rail line!).
Super info sf jack…Thanks….
This just in from the Sacramento County Assessor: They counted up 50,000 new FB’s in the last year. Wonder how they feel? Bitter sweet? Lower RE taxes, but confimation they were GF’s?
“…A housing slump that has wiped out countless millions of dollars in Sacramento-area home equity is soon to give a few million back.
Letters to 50,000 Sacramento County homeowners are being mailed today announcing cuts of up to 10 percent in their fall property tax bills, said Sacramento County Assessor Kenneth Stieger.
The rollback will erase about $15 million in revenue for schools, the county of Sacramento, its seven cities and numerous special districts, Stieger said. It affects 12.8 percent of the county’s 390,000 residential parcels….”
I wonder if people will start to get it now. The county is voluntarily giving up $15 million in revenue because they have identified 50,000 FB’s. Hello….are people still looking to buy in this market??
That is HUGE!! No denying the bust has finally claimed California’s scalp.
But everything is ok.
We placed our hope in school funds being there from the proceeds of gambling, in the form of our state lottery.
i can’t wait to rent a mc mansion in an empty and quiet neighborhood. maybe i can find one with a “drive thru” garage.
drive thru to garden and wash car. spin and repeat.
My Lowballing Adventures (Palm Beach County, FL):
Lowball Number One: LP: 300k. My Offer: 175k Response: “The offer is too weak to even consider”. Lesson Learned: Check the deeds office in addition to the tax records. They bought for 119k, but they HELOC’ed 200k to buy sports cars. Even their asking price would make them have to take money to the table
Lowball Number Two: LP 289k My Offer: 170k. Response “I own this house outright. I don’t need to sell. But we won’t hold that offer against you. Feel free to offer again”. Riiiight. Vacant house that the assessor is listing as homesteaded.
Lowball Offer Three: LP: 289k. My Offer: 165k. Response “I’ve got three bids for very near asking price. You’ve got to up yours.” Two months later, the house still sits with an asking price of 289k, now FSBO. Investment company owned, bought out of foreclosure six months ago.
At this point, my realtor “fires” me, claiming that I am “not serious”. Apparently, I’m “looking for the deal of a lifetime, and I’ll never get it.” I’m wasting her time.
Lowball Offer Four: LP: 249k (total dilapidated mess in historical district). My Offer: 150k. Response “We want to get our full asking price”. Sad story, actually. Immigrant family that doesn’t speak english, getting wiped out by their insurance increases. Their realtor told them to take our offer, but they’re convinced they can do better.
I’m not deterred. It costs me nothing to make offers.
KEEP DOING IT…I WILL START THIS BY YEAR END.
“I’ve got three bids”
I think that a lot of sellers/sellers agents have this as an automatic response:
You: “Hi, I’d like to make an offer on your house.”
Seller/Seller’s Agent: “I already have 3 bids, you are going to have to do better”.
You: “But I haven’t even told you my offer.”
Seller/Seller’s Agent: “I already have 3 bids, you are going to have to do better”.
You: “Forget it, you should take one of those bids and be done with it.”
Seller/Seller’s Agent: “I already have 3 bids, you are going to have to do better”.
Gee, do you think you’ll be able to find another real estate agent?
I think SouthFL Renter should receive an award for serial lowballing and then being “fired” by the realtor.
Great lowball stories - keep them coming!
Well gas prices being what they are, it IS cheaper for ‘em to sit in the office waiting for the phone to ring than to SFL Renter around. No more productive, but…
Good job,
Question can you access the deeds office records online?
This is taken from Florida City Data Forum:
“We are in shock today, we had a realtor come out to give us idea what we could get if we sold our 18mos new home. We paid 195,000 with upgrades for 2100 sq ft, Lakeland I guess is at all time low of home sold. Only New homes are selling apparently from builders who finance hard to finance people.
We are on 2 acre pond, biggest lot in here, 20,000 upgrades, He claims now it would be hard to sell for more than, than 220,000.
When right across the street the lots on pond are 35,000 extra.
In Tampa it would sell for 350,figure that. By the time you pay realtor and sellers fees, no way.
I guess we will wait it out 2more years. The problem we bought in a sub where the builder selling to many investors. THe realtor says now the builders are glad to sell to investors because noone is buying so the problems will get worse before gets better.”
I wonder what her homes worth will be in two more years.
SKB
Note too that she is ‘in shock’ at the estimate that the house would sell for $5,000 MORE than the price paid 18 months ago PLUS the upgrades.
“…I guess we will wait it out 2more years…”
In two more years, you can start competing with all the properties in the foreclosure pipeline. You value will be much lower. What is it about this market that makes you think it is suddenly going to turn around and start rapidly appreciating?
Higher wages? NO. Lower interest rates? Already at historic lows! Lending standards? LOL! They are only going to be tighter.
Please, tell me one thing that you see happening in the next two years to support higher prices.
Jingle,
This is taken from Florida City Data Forum,
I am not that person.
SKB
That “pond” is for sure a retention pond. It baffles me that people from out of state think they’re getting a great deal by being on a mandated retention pond that is marketed as “waterfront.” I suppose it’s because there is the marginal value of not having a neighbor on a contiguous lot. Enjoy the mosquitoes.
At this point, my realtor “fires” me, claiming that I am “not serious”.
I’ve got an agent who won’t fire you if you’re interested.
I own this house outright. I don’t need to sell. But we won’t hold that offer against you.
Actually, that’s the kind of thing I would be looking for. If someone owns the house, you can drive a hard bargain.
I’ve finally posed the question to my realtor as to whether or not she’ll willingly place offers for me that are far below asking price. I told her, point blank, I’m old school and my maximum offer is 3 times gross income. Period. (Granted, this would be for homes I believe I should be able to afford in a sane market - I’m not going to make that offer on McMansions.)
Anyway, if she’s not comfortable presenting it, then I need to know that right now so I can find someone else who is. Waiting to hear back…
The lowball approach works best when you do find someone who has not much left to pay off, and can no longer handle the house, but is too stubborn to let go to the kids.
Good for you.
Would like to hear more from everyone making LBO’s.
Very Interesting stories. Especially when supported with
LP data, offer amount and reactions from FB and agents.
I would like to suggest that LBO’s become a regular feature
in the Weekend Post Local Market Observations Here! topic section.
Note to Ben:
Maybe even a seperate weekend topic? I think the LBO’s
will become increasingly common as the overall market
downward spiral picks up steam.
Not only could it include LBO stories, but suggestions as
to negotiating with agents, how to handle negative reaction
from FB’s and agents, etc…
I agree with octal77 re: LBO stories and suggestions.
I agree the stories are interesting, but whouldn’t we be encouraging people to NOT make any kids of offers for a year or more? If you get one of those low-balls accepted, you’re in for sorrow, even if the price is good now, it will seem way too high later.
“If you get one of those low-balls accepted, you’re in for sorrow, even if the price is good now, it will seem way too high later. ”
True enough.
Here’s my method. If you think it’s flawed, I’m all ears.
1. Look for houses through the MLS as if you had all the money in the world. When you find the houses you’re interested in, then…
2. Find silimar houses that are in the same neighborhoods priced 20% lower than the ones you just found. That is, find the listings that appear to want to beat the market down. The listings I mentioned above were in the mid-high 200k’s, and the area comperable listings were in the low to mid 300k’s. Then…
3. Go to the assessor’s website and disqualify all houses that were bought within 50% of the asking price. Then…
4. Go to the Deeds office and disqualify any houses that have HELOC’s or other exotica…Then…
5. With the small handful of homes left (a growing handful, by the way), LOWBALL. Never less than 30% from the already 10%-20% low asking.
I’ll try to fish through my inbox and post my realtor’s email to me stating that she didn’t want to work with me any more. It’s one of those classics that I’ll likely never remove from my inbox.
SouthFL — that looks like a pretty good plan to me.
Am I missing alot or what? If they allow all these idiots out of the subprime or Alt-A loans thru refi’s what happens to the yield to the holders of all that paper? It evaporates? Who holds the paper? Seems to me unlawful to go in and scrap a note through subterfuge when the buyer of that paper had a plan, obviously. So it was based on greed. What isn’t?
The holders should get their principle back.
When the bank refis a new loan would be drawn up and either the bank would hold the new note or sell it.
The real question is if the idiot can pay on the new loan if it is a traditional Principle and Interest loan. We all know the answer pretty much.
By BILL KACZOR
Associated Press Writer
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. –The Florida Senate unanimously passed its bipartisan property tax overhaul package without debate Thursday, setting up negotiations with a House split mainly along party lines on a key part of its very different plan.
That element is a proposed state constitutional amendment (HJR 7089) that would trade property tax relief on primary homes, known as homesteads, for sales tax increases. The Senate plan has no such tax swap.
http://www.bradenton.com/186/story/26698.html
Loan agent arrested for stealing copper wire.
http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/homepage/abox/article_1663939.php
This is getting to be problem with the rising price of copper.
A section of the H1 freeway in Honolulu is frequently blacked out because of repeated thefts of copper lighting and communications wiring.
Phoenix area price per square foot taking a pounding. Down almost $18 sq/ft since we started trackng in March.
Chart is here: http://tinyurl.com/264p8v
Fulll stats on the metro area are here: http://tinyurl.com/2gxex4
Similar trend in Fairfax, VA: http://tinyurl.com/2grskf
A Great leap backwards…
At about the same time we were shutting down things Apollo, our country had made the decision to go Metric, along with everybody else in the world~
For quite awhile, they’d got us ready.
Road signs were in both miles and kilometers and from what I saw, it never went any further than that.
Of course, nowadays, everything is in ounces and pounds, along with it’s metric equivilent, but my point is this…
We went lazy en masse, for the first time in our existance.
Couldn’t hack getting rid of inches and yards?
The first step towards the easy chair will get you there.
Connect the dots…
LESSONS FROM THE EDGE OF THE WORLD
“… I have been writing for a long time that the smaller countries are where “it” all is. Singapore, Taiwan,
South Korea, Oman, Tunisia, Slovenia, the Baltic countries, Ireland and, of course, Iceland are where you find the best balance of human factors and the greatest economic prosperity. It is as if, today, the big, multicultural countries like the United States, Russia and even Europe are so complex and inwardly conflictive that they waste all their time, effort and, increasingly, investment in inner contentiousness — ironically, not unlike the perpetually conflicted underdeveloped Third World countries.”
Mon Apr 16
Georgie Anne Geyer
http://tinyurl.com/2poxz7
“Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, Oman, Tunisia, Slovenia, the Baltic countries, Ireland” = monocultural places
How exciting is that?
Anyway, several years ago in the winter following a long ferry ride through the Kokanee Mountains of British Columbia, after leaving the town of Nelson, I came upon a much smaller Canadian town that had refused to go metric.
I cannot remember the name of the town, but all their signs upon entering or leaving town limits said loosely “proudly non-metric since 1973″. Which, I thought at the time, was probably within five years of American draft dodgers showing up in the area (so there is some evidence of American non-laziness in this matter).
If I recall, each official provincial road sign with km’s was accompanied by a plywood sign with the English system equivalent in miles.
It was like going back in time.
Then again, most of non-urban Canada seems like that. It reminds me of growing up in the 70’s and 80’s in New England.
Some nit-picking: I spent several months in Oman — it is not the home of economic prosperity. It is squeaky clean and its inhabitants are the friendliest to the U.S. of any Gulf country’s, but its economy is pretty much the basket case of the Persian Gulf (Iraq not considered). The Omanis are by no means poor, but neither does their country belong in Geyer’s list, IMO.
Beats the heck out of Yemen, though…
Liquor and large soda bottles went metric, not much else.
Obviously this is not a suggestion to commit fraud, because it’s from “integrity-loans.com”….
http://sandiego.craigslist.org/rfs/315157739.html
“Would you take a foreclosure on your credit for $$1,100,000?!?!
It’s simple. Buy the house with 100% financing and receive $1,100,000 at closing.
Ya, you’ll have a foreclosure on your credit, but what do you need credit for when you have OVER A MILLION IN THE BANK!!!!!!!
Call or e-mail Jon at 858.225.5008 for more info.
Property shown below.”
Shouldn’t someone flag this? I did, but it takes more than one to get the ad removed. The place looks nice, and the scenery is gorgeous, but this is an ad encouraging fraud.
It’s gone.
I no longer subscribe to the Santa Barbara newpress to see the whole article, but it should be an interesting read. The housing bubble forced businesses to leave town that resulted in job losses. Now those FBs are facing job losses and upside-down mortgages at the same time:
“Job losses strangle county growth: Annual UCSB report describes dismal effects of housing slump, major layoffs”
“Economic growth in Santa Barbara County has slowed dramatically, as the region’s once-brisk engine for job creation, the North County, apparently has lost steam, local economists reported. Dragged down by the weakness in home sales plus layoffs at major employer Vandenberg Air Force Base, job growth in the North County stopped last year, said economists at the UCSB Economic Forecast Project. The group presented its annual report and forecast Thursday at the Lobero Theatre in Santa Barbara.”
Here’s an early peek at March sales info. for my area of South Florida, from a local real estate brokerage …
* Sales were down 35.8% year-over-year (979 in 2007 vs. 1,526 in 2006)
* Inventory surged 25.3% YOY (24,029 in 2007 vs. 19179 in 2006).
* Median price was down just a smidge — 1% to $287,000 from $290,000 a year ago. But average days on market surged to 140 from 88 a year earlier.
Full details at my blog …
http://tinyurl.com/2qnoyx
http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/homepage/abox/article_1663939.php
I guess the New Century outplacement efforts are coming up short. This stuff is just weird.
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2007/04/20/survival/782forum.txt
The san Diego “City-County Reinvestment Task Force” had a meeting Thursday….
San Diego City Councilman Tony Young led the meeting Thursday to discuss the effects of increasing foreclosures in the region. The topic drew a crowd of city and county officials, mortgage professionals and housing counselors….
That’s so funny. San Diego city officials lecturing on sound finacial practices. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black!
San Diego city councilmen….should “worry” about their fine city going bankrupt. No audits, unable to pay billions due for pensions, no problems here?
Any thoughts on this? I don’t understand why the stock market is at record highs. I can’t see how it can escape the fallout of the housing bubble. It seems (just based on my recollection, which may be skewed) for the last several years, right after tax time, the market goes up. I know that I don’t get around to putting money in my SEP and other IRAs until tax time. Could it be that since that is probably what most people do, they feel compelled to invest their cash right after depositing it?
Given that many people are coming around to the realization that they need to fund their own retirement, I would think there is a pretty good chunk of change coming in to the market each year now from individuals all at the same time, as opposed to prior decades. I have never seen any information regarding the possible effects of everyone’s cash hitting the market at the same time.
Ever heard of the housing bubble?
I recommend the book Bull: What 21st Century Investors Need to Know About Financial Cycles (2004)
All markets are cyclical. Interesting tidbit - In 1996 Rep. Chris Cox led the effort to pass a bill “designed to shield both corporations and their accountants against shareholder suits if they misled investors about their earnings” The bill passed afer Clinton’s veto was overturned. Wall Street had a license to doctor balance sheets and deceive investors.
Guess who’s been chairman of the SEC since June 2005? Yep. Chris Cox.
THere are many many factors, but here is an excerpt from the book about one factor STOCK BUYBACKS which are big right now.
“If earnings per share dropped too much, companies would never be able to meet Wall Street’s quarterly estimates no matter how diligently they padded their earnings reports. There was only one solution: companies had to begin buying back their own shares. At the height of the bull market, companies began paying a premium for their own overvalued shares, squandering money that could have been used for research and development or to distribute dividends to shareholders. Some even borrowed to finance the buybacks… In 1999, the Federal Reserve estimated that their sample of 138 large firms spent some 40 percent of their earnings buying back their own shares.”
MSM Update:
From PBS weekly newsmagazine “NOW” with David Brancaccio:
Brancaccio: “Next week on NOW, Did you and your family get caught up in the collapse of the Housing bubble?” A closer look at the easy-credit housing bubble.
http://www.pbs.org/now/
Air date is Friday 4/27/07. Check your local listings for air-time…
LOL — on that site they note that presidential candidates stayed mum on the Va Tech shootings because they fear the NRA. Bull. The Congress all stayed mum on the shootings because at the time of the shooting they were in the Virgin Islands, they were in Europe, they were in Asia — virtually all were on junkets during the recess and they could not afford to have their quotes in reaction be sourced to their location.