A “Code Red” For The Housing Bubble
It’s Friday desk clearing time. “Jeffrey Taylor and his wife bought their dream home in Purcellville for $538,000 last August. Now they have to sell it and neither one can afford the mortgage alone. The most they could get for it was $430,000. After paying all the real estate commissions and taxes, they will still owe the bank $118,000.”
“‘Five months later, I lose $100,000,’ Taylor said. ‘I don’t think I can take $100,000 into the stock market and lose it faster.’”
“Wilbur Van Wyck, former president of the Ocala/Marion County Association of Realtors, said that while Marion County isn’t short of prospective buyers stagnant markets in both South Florida and in the Northeast have made it difficult for people to make the move here.”
“‘The biggest problem I’ve seen is that people want to buy here, but they can’t sell homes elsewhere,’ Van Wyck said.”
“Banks began foreclosure proceedings against 56 percent more North Carolina homeowners last month compared with a year ago, according to a new report.”
“Peter Skillern, director of a Durham nonprofit group, said he was not surprised by the big spike in North Carolina. ‘I think the primary cause for the increase is the use of adjustable rate mortgages. Borrowers simply can’t afford them,’ he said.”
“Spanish real estate companies took a hammering in the stock market Thursday as evidence mounted that Spain’s 10-year property boom is over. ‘The Spanish real estate sector is not a bubble, it is a huge balloon. When it blows up there will be an enormous bang,’ said one Madrid trader.”
“Leading estate agents have begun to feel the pinch of the property market slowdown with confirmation of redundancies at two main companies over the past couple of months. Gunne Residential has made eight people redundant and has closed two branches in Bray, Co Wicklow, and Swords, Co Dublin.”
“‘It’s diabolical at the moment,’ said one agent who did not wish to be named. ‘And I would expect more redundancies in the sector in the next few months.’”
“The slowing (Arizona) real estate market has claimed its first victim among local home builders. The nearly four-year-old AmericaBuilt Construction Inc. and its affiliate, AmericaBuilt Communities Inc., filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization Thursday.”
“‘They were always a good business to work with,’ said Jennifer Green, office manager for ROR Construction Co. ‘We all know what the housing market is doing right now.’”
“Housing starts slipped 37 percent in the Toledo area in the first quarter to 223 from 356 at the same time last year. When a competitor’s estimate for a basement-finishing job came in a third lower recently, it didn’t take Dennis Wolke long to figure out why.”
“‘It was a home builder out looking for work,’recalled Wolke.”
“The hottest get-rich-quick investment in Texas is an old-fashioned one: land. In Bandera, Blanco, Kendall and Kerr counties together, the median price per acre topped $7,086 last year, up 22 percent since 2005, and up more than 118 percent since 2001, said Charles Gilliland, research economist at A&M.”
“‘It’s sort of like a trip to the horse track,’ Gilliland said.”
“The statewide land rush continues to defy economic history and decades of data that track the rise and fall of rural property values. It’s enough to make an economist sound like he’s spinning a yarn.”
“‘Sometimes you have to worry about your credibility,’ said Gilliland, who doesn’t think people are overpaying for land yet.”
“A Placentia loan officer was arrested Wednesday after police say they caught him in the middle of stealing copper from a vacant Irvine building.”
“I’m average Seacoast resident. I’ve got a wife and a kid and a decent-paying job. However, due to a mortgage, plus property taxes, in the range of $1,900 a month, we cut corners, make due, yet still face an uncertain future.”
“My wife and I bought our house in 2004 for about $235,000 and it appraised a year later at $265,000. If my house appreciates by 227 percent by 2018, it would be worth $602,273. Hallelujah! Jackpot, right? We’ll all be in serious trouble if starter homes in America cost more than half a million dollars.”
“Economists use words like affordability, economic diversity and sustainability. Politicians use them as a punchline. Is this a code red on the housing industry? You’re damn right it is!”
Another great week! My thanks to those who support this blog. Please check back this weekend for news, your market observations and topics.
Ben - Should this be “Code Blue” for the housing bubble?
beep - beep - beep - be - be -b -b b b b b b b b bbbbbbb bbeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Where’s the crash cart?
‘ “I think the primary cause for the increase (in foreclosures) is the use of adjustable rate mortgages. Borrowers simply can’t afford them” says Peter Skillern, director of a Durham nonprofit group.’
And there we have, in a simple sentence, one of the main reasons for this mess.
The adjustable rate mortgage! The most vile invention of mankind.
If you cant afford a 15 or 30 yr fixed rate mortgage then DONT buy!
ARMs were actually a very good tool in the early 1980’s when rates were near 20%. The problem is that some people got greedy while others are just ignorant of economics and finances
Agree –if rates are high and you have good reason to expect them to fall, a (conventional amortizing) ARM would be the better choice. In some countries, ARMs are actually the norm (Oz, NZ). Of course, using one during the past several years –when rates were at historic lows– is nuts.
IMO, the loans that are the real problem, are option-ARMs (neg-ams) and interest-onlys, especially the ones with “teasers” and combined with $0-down and stated-income.
Oz? I kept trying to figure out what that stands for, and then I thought, I guess it’s … Oz! Like, Munchkins and Gillikens and Quadlings, and Dorothy and Ozma and the Nome King, and ARMs?
I believe Oz is Australia.
I think the US is the only country on the planet with a 30 year fixed loan. In Sweden they talk about “fixed” loans and the longest term is actually a 10-year ARM. The standard is a floating loan, which adjusts after 3 months.
Here is an example of rates from a Swedish bank with rates from 3 months to 10 years:
http://www.ica.se/FrontServlet?s=ikk&state=ikk_dynamic&viewid=635970&showMenu=ikk_6_2
To illustrate how deep Sweden is in the “debt economy” the standard duration is 40 years. In order to avoid a second mortgage you need to put 15% down, but the second mortgage has the same rate but a 15 year term. This bank will not make loans for less than 5% down.
This bank is a branch of the country’s largest supermarket chain ICA, which is owned 50% by the Dutch company Ahold. (Ahold owns Giant, Stop&Shop, etc. in the US).
Actually you can get a 35,30 and 15 year fixed in Japan.
No they don’t offer 40-100+ year mortgages anymore. Mainly because interest rates have been super low in the last few years.
Unfortunately, Japan didn’t learn from their last RE bubble and are at it again, though there are signs of cooling on the demand side of things. But they have so many large residential and commercial RE projects going up all over Japan, especially in Tokyo and Osaka.
Yeah, I don’t have a problem with loan options– just people who participate without being informed (except by the NAR), sign on the dotted line without understanding the contract, expect home price to always appreciate so who cares anyway, and then cry bailout when the @#$% hits the fan.
Actually, I haven’t heard of any mortgage payers demanding bailouts… I guess it’s just politicians worrried about their banking buddies.
We did great with the arm we got in ‘94. Went down every year. In ‘03 and ‘04 we looked at getting a fixed ‘cuz we knew rates were never going to be this low again. We sold to become bitter, jealous renters.
The public has been conditioned to think that:
1. Real estate prices always go up and
2. Cheap teaser rates will always be available for mortages as they have been for credit cards, therefore
3. It makes good sense to always exchange a soon to be pricy mortgage for another mortgage with a lower teaser rate, just as one does for credit cards, and it also makes sense to
4. Cash out some of that equity that is always building up in your home instead of putting wifey to work. There is absolutely no risk to this behaviour because
1. (again) Real estate prices always go up.
Thank you Ben, this is like a home away from home-ownership!
“Jeffrey Taylor and his wife bought their dream home in Purcellville for $538,000 last August. Now they have to sell it and neither one can afford the mortgage alone. The most they could get for it was $430,000. After paying all the real estate commissions and taxes, they will still owe the bank $118,000.”
“‘Five months later, I lose $100,000,’ Taylor said. ‘I don’t think I can take $100,000 into the stock market and lose it faster.’”
He didn’t take only $100k into the housing market either. He should have bought $500k worth of Nortel stock on 90% margin in Jan 2000.
I think 50% is max. But I am sure they used that “opportunity” to the full extent.
The key here is that this is a distressed couple who must sell their home. This resets the comps for the entire neighborhood.
However, it’s the details of why they NEED to sell that make me nuts. The article says they are getting a divorce. Was it not clear last August that this marriage was on the rocks? Did things just fall apart since January? Was it the house that shattered the relationship? Was the house supposed to be the thing that saved the marriage?
I’ve heard that when a couple are having martial difficultities the three things they do to try to patch up things are:
1. Go on a cruise or
2. Buy a house or
3. Have a baby.
“‘The biggest problem I’ve seen is that people want to buy here, but they can’t sell homes elsewhere,’ Van Wyck said.”
But all real estate is LOCAL isn’t it?
Yes, it’s different everywhere!
ROTFL
With how mobile the US population is, just having Florida locked up will stall the whole nation. But wait… its not just Florida…
This is going to get ugly fast. With stated income loans becoming less common and investors slowing their buying… it could get interesting. Now, I don’t pretend investors have stopped buying. However, 40% of the homes sold in the last few years were investment or 2nd homes… Just more interesting.
Just someone tell me what the stock market is smoking/drinking. It has to be good stuff.
Got popcorn?
Neil
Oh, Kudlow is going on and on about “Goldilocks! The biggest story never told!” Apparently that is what Wall Street is smoking. They’re smoking Kudlows.
Roidy
A guest on Krapload & Co did talk about a recession in 2007. Joe Paglia said it could easily extend to next year.
“They’re smoking Kudlows”
LMFAO, what a great line. time to roll some more Kudlows for all the WS idiots.
Stock market could be the next bubble. Before Ben got his own domain there was a lot of talk here about what the next Bubble would be - Metals, stock market, etc…
Just so much liquidity still floating around it has to go somewhere. And the dow going up up up is great for housing - more FBs can make payments & others feeling rich will buy. Maybe those central bankers have a plan to save housing afterall…
Yeah it looks that way. I can’t see any where to go after that. As bubbles go it doesn’t seem as energetic as dotcoms or housing but I guess we’ll see.
Gold. Gold. Gold.
It hasn’t even *started* to move yet. The inflation adjusted high for gold is around $2400 — so gold is still cheap.
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if gold went up 300% over the next 5 years.
And silver could get even crazier… but we’ll see gold go balistic first.
“Stock market could be the next bubble.”
Stock market is the current bubble.
VaN Wyck:
You didn’t say that in 2004-5, when you sent everybody over the edge to the nearest sub-prime lender that would “wink, wink” at that lender as primary residence when in fact it was mortgage for a 2nd home!
Another problem in Marion county is that a lot of people want to sell there…I75 thru that county is littered with for sale signs.
“I’m average Seacoast resident. I’ve got a wife and a kid and a decent-paying job. However, due to a mortgage, plus property taxes, in the range of $1,900 a month, we cut corners, make due, yet still face an uncertain future.”
It’ll ALWAYS be uncertain for people who face the future with their eyes WIDE SHUT. Your predicament means you caught the RE ‘casino fever’ and bet all your chips stupidly. Now to add insult to injury I’ll probably have to put up with your dumb azz the next time I’m at a stoplight and you come up to offer to ‘clean my windshield’.
Unbelievable.
this guy bought for ~ 3*salary and yet no room for vacation/entertainment/emergency..
only way out is to use credit card!
Did you read the rest of the Seacoast link?
The writer’s not actually not doing anything egregiously stupid (pretax income $6667; mortgage and taxes $1897). Like many, he’s got a lot of monthly expenses.
What he does well in the piece is take the Greenspan FOMC to task… they certainly deserve it.
One too many “not”s in there…
I read the article.
The author itemizes his expenses. I’m just curious as to how three people can live on $100 of groceries per month?
$100sb $400/month for groceriesAgree. There is no way a family of three could make it on $400 a month on groceries. And this couple’s housing budget stretch is nothing compared to what the FB’s in CA where doing.
I have a family of four and we live on a budget of $400 a month forgroceries…..with surplus.
It’s called coupons and no name brands.
“I’m just curious as to how three people can live on $400 of groceries per month? ”
I believe one is only a baby. I grew up on the seacoast. Food prices are cheaper there than where I live now and they were cheaper than where my bros lived in FLA too.
We have a family of 4 and I easily spend less than $200/week on groceries. My husband and children have those lucky metabolisms where they actually have to eat to maintain normal weight so I think our food bill is high….We do eat leftovers and little junk food/desserts….perhaps that’s the difference?
I spend $80 - $150/wk for 4
Buying in bulk?
We’ve tried Costco, coupons, sales, farms stands, etc. No matter how we try, our grocery bills (including household items) run beteween $800-$1,000/month.
Fact is, we’ve had a tremendous inflationary run these past 10+ years, when you consider what people NEED to buy. The more cost inflation we have (in food, healthcare, insurance, education, energy, etc.), the less money available for housing costs.
Not only have we had high cost inflation, but we’ve had stagnant wages and a shift from employer-paid healthcare and pensions to employee-paid. Additionally, our jobs are less stable, and we might have to move more often to relocate for work.
Truth be told, even the standard qualifications of 28%/33% DTI ratios are too cumbersome for today’s familes. We need to see 15%-25% DTI ratios or less (gross income) for people to be able to save and keep themselves out of debt, IMHO.
Our food bill with some meals out is about 400 but it’s only two of us. The rest of your discussion of inflationary creep is spot on and yes I do have the data to support it >; )
$400/mo on groceries for three? Easy! When looking for ways to save we looked at the grocery bill. Be careful what and where you buy. Don’t get prepared foods and buy on sale and in bulk. I’ll bet that everyone could easily find $100 to $200 a month if they just looked.
OK, I admit our usual bill is about $550 - $650, but we could easily cut down. If I buy a 6 pack of good beer and a bottle of fair wine each week, there is 10% of our grocery bill…YOW!
I agree Backstage that there are ways to save. Ask a poor Asian immigrant family what their grocery bill looks like. I bet it’s less than a buck a day per person. Heck, you can buy a 50-lb bag of rice for $18, which will last months. My parents raised six kids spending about $200 a month on groceries. Hardly anything they bought was pre-packaged. Fresh meats, fresh greens, and lots of starch, all cheap.
I’d kill for a 1900 piti payment for a 3/1 WWII stater home here! 235K would be a 2002 price here. Our income even matches the family in the article but we have way, way less in monthly costs.
235K would be a 2002 price here.
“Jeffrey Taylor and his wife bought their dream home in Purcellville for $538,000 last August. Now they have to sell it and neither one can afford the mortgage alone.”
Am I the only person who is sick of people obsessed with obtaining their “dream houses?” When I was kid, a dream house was something one acquired after years and years of working and saving and planning and DREAMING, not something to be had immediately whether one could afford it or not. Given examples of what the clowns consider their “dream houses,” I would say they haven’t lived nearly long enough to develop even rudimentary discrimination.
What’s even sicker is that they purchased their “dream” home just last August and are now getting a divorce! If your marriage was that shaky, the last thing they should have been doing is buying an expensive house. Fools.
Maybe they thought getting a “dream house” would save their marriage.
Yeah cuz tighter finances always ease marital stress.
Exactly. Don’t they know that when the marriage is on the rocks, then they should have a baby because that always makes the marriage stronger. I’m surprised these guys didn’t try to double down by buying a house and having a baby; surely that would have saved the marriage. (sarcasm off)
Sadly, We have >50% divorce rate in US so chances are you have better chance of your marriage ending in divorce than obtaining a afforadable house.
Or maybe it was the financial strain that resulted from overpaying for this dream house that put their marriage into foreclosure.
Oh yeah, and the long commute. Purcellville is a podunk town about 50 miles west of DC. In rush hour traffic, the commute would be about 2 hours each way.
Why anyone ever paid a half million dollars for a McMansion out there is beyond comprehension.
I’m sure it was the wife’s dream home, and that now explains the divorce: “Take your fuc-in dream home and shove it, Lardass!”
I think Suzanne took a vacation east and talked with them. They jumped into the pool without a life jacket.
Maybe he was caught banging the Realtor.
I am a six-week per year tenant in my Dream House. That’s about as much of my Dream House as I can afford, despite being 61 and having a bunch of debtors who are not in default.
a “dream house” is one where you live a happy life…it can have a kitchen with old avocado green appliances and formica countertops and if you’re happy and content…then it’s a dream house.
If you live in a home where can pay your bills, have little to no debt, sleep well at night, that’s pretty much a dream house.
What’s NOT a dream house is a energy sapping (both emotionally and environmentally) piece of badly built fluff that dominates your every thought. You can’t enjoy the granite countertops when they cost as much as 6 month’s salary. If your kids don’t see you because you have to work all the time and when they do, you’re all stressed out…that’s not a dream home. If you’re always looking for bigger, better-than-the-neighbors, go into ridiculous debt that puts your family in a horrible situation…well, that’s pretty much a nightmare house.
Testify, Catherine! Testify!
My wife finally acknowledges this. We’ve had nicer houses and larger houses, and even a few that were both larger and nicer. But this one is fully paid for. Almost two years now without a mortgage payment means the livin’ is easy, and not just in the summertime.
it’ll be easy until Uncle Sam taps you on the shoulder and tells you it’s time to ante up for all those dream house idiots that are going down the shitter
Death,
That’s exactly why the bail outs won’t happen in any meaningful way. I’m sure Bill would throw out any political bum who suggested that Bill pay more to help out stupid Joe down the street who paid top price in ‘05 using a sub-prime arm.
We rent our dream house. To buy it would cost too much.
I agree, but as a 27 year old, its hard not buying into the consumerism.
Well put az_lender. Hey, if someone worked hard and smart and made a bunch of money, go ahead and get a dream house. But your regular wage slave usually will never be able to afford a real dream house. For these guys, rent a nice dream house for vacation instead.
All this talk about “Dream House” reminded me of the 60’s game show by that name. From Wikipedia:
1968 version hosted by Mike Darrow
The first version aired in a daytime slot on ABC from April 1,1968 - January 2, 1970; and a nighttime slot from March 26 - September 19, 1968. Two (later three) couples competed in a game of quick recall; questions were worth five points apiece. The first player to buzz in got to answer, but if s/he was wrong, the other couple(s) could try to answer for ten points. When a player gave a correct answer, s/he was locked out of the next question. During the period when three couples competed, the lowest-scoring couple was eliminated about midway through the game.
Two minutes before the end of the game, the point values doubled, and at the end was the “Catch-Up Round,” in which the team that was trailing could choose one last question from 10 to 50 points (if they answered correctly, the other couple got one last shot). Winners received one room of furniture; it took seven rooms of furniture to win the house on the daytime show, four on the nighttime. In the summer of 1969 TV Guide reported that none of the houses won so far had been completed, and that some couples were having to get more than the $7500 the show allowed for the purchase of land. The show began offering the option of a cash prize in lieu of the house, but that article may have been the beginning of the show’s decline in the ratings.
I never saw that show. Guess I was watching Star Treck.
I am in my dream house, perfect for the two of us with a very small ocean view….renting!
I know a couple that built a “dream house” in South Tampa. I visited a couple of times and it had everything from a jacuzzi to a wine storage room to a custom-designed hobby area. They divorced, sold as a result, and now that’s somebody else’s dream house.
Just my opinion, but people should dream for something besides impressing others.
To me “dream house” is along the same lines as “soulmate”. My personal feeling on both is that there’s more than just one option for everyone.
my dream house is “paid off”
I look forward to a mortgage burning party one day in about 14 yrs…sigh.
Anyone else here ever been to a mortgage burning party? Ive only been to one my whole life.
Was half a million dollars their dream mortgage as well? What was their dream payment?
“‘Five months later, I lose $100,000,’ Taylor said. ‘I don’t think I can take $100,000 into the stock market and lose it faster.’”
At least with stocks, you can’t owe more than you invested. You invest $5,000, the most you lose is $5,000 if the stock goes to zero. While a house can’t drop in price to zero, we can see how zero down can turn to $100k owed.
“While a house can’t drop in price to zero, we can see how zero down can turn to $100k owed.”
Exactly!. And the possibility of that happening was ALWAYS latent and should have been factored-in & considered BEFORE the loan was requested.
These FB’s ROLLED THE DICE & LOST on these stupid home purchases and even got into bidding wars with each other to see which one would bury themselves deeper into debt.
Now …why should I have the LEAST bit of concern or pity for these greedy azzholes?. They’ve violated the whole sanctity of the dream of homeownership by converting homes into speculative ‘investments’ and they’ve wreaked HAVOC on their more responsible neighbors by disrupting local property values & taxes everywhere they went.
Let their next McMansion be a huge cardboard box on skidrow!.
“They’ve violated the whole sanctity of the dream of homeownership…”
Huh?
Why not pay for marriage counseling ?, has to be cheaper than $100K !
Sure does. Heck, they probably could buy a small duplex and cut a door for when they want to agree or barter.
“At least with stocks, you can’t owe more than you invested.”
Ever heard of selling short?
Yes - But selling short is not buying stock It’s gambling on price movements, And there should be a risk of loosing your shirt.
Perhaps if the risks of liar loans were more apparent to the “FB’s they wouldn’t have taken them in the 1st place.
Mossypete
30 yr fixed @4.875 currently paying it off in 20 yrs or less
Go tell that to all the folks currently holding the highest o/s margin balances since 2000.
“Spanish real estate companies took a hammering in the stock market Thursday as evidence mounted that Spain’s 10-year property boom is over. ‘The Spanish real estate sector is not a bubble, it is a huge balloon. When it blows up there will be an enormous bang,’ said one Madrid trader.”
If all the local real estate market bubbles around the world pop simultaneously, will the entire planet blow up in a miniature version of the Big Bang?
If the world DOES blow up, at these current prices every remaining football-sized chunk of planet left floating in space would be worth around $ 135,000, making Earth the most EXPENSIVE space-debri in the galaxy!.
Needless to say, property values on our neighbor Mars would rise proportionately.
I think I see the NEXT big RE rush here!
No sweat, just read my article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, February, 2001, entitled “Keeping Mars Warm with New Super Greenhouse Gases.” I kid you not, they actually published this piece of almost-sci-fi. Hey, we may have to go there.
I’ll take a couple of acres for suburban development…
Dan:
I think you and Blue skye are watching to much TV, together!
Getstucco:
Tocontinue a post on the Spanish R.E. or REIT bust
I believe the article I saw was on “itulup” ,but it for sure linked off “implode-0- meter”.blogspot now over 60!
in the story section. The following:
CDO swap spreads had moved by 23 beeps on the 3rd week in February just before we had a 570 DJI drubbing. Todays CDO’s spreads blew thru 60…that the writer commented equaled about 30 months of income. While the 23 beeps was only 11 months in Feb.
2007-04-20: Panic at the commercial Real Estate market - CDO paper derivatives signal big trouble.
wellit didn’t quite post right.
I think you just solved the greatest riddle of all time, stucco! Even Einstein would be humbled.
“Hallelujah! Jackpot, right? We’ll all be in serious trouble if starter homes in America cost more than half a million dollars.”
Welcome to San Diego, circa 2007.
So how much trouble are we in here in OC where DQ reports that the median SFR is approximately $700K?
The guy in the story has HH income roughly equal to that of the median in OC, and he is struggling with his house that he bought for $240K. And, if I’m not mistaken, NH does not have state income taxes, while here in CA everything over about $46K is taxed by the state at the maximum 9.3%.
See my comments above - he’s not doing anything “egregiously stupid” ($6667 gross; $1867 mortgage & taxes).
For OC residents as you point out, however, the same cannot be said.
The equivalent would be starter shoebox condos in SF.
These are not your glam buildings, but many units in the half million $ range go for anywhere from 600/700 to $1,000 / square foot.
What I mean by shoebox…
Still gaming the system.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/weekend-edition-housing-slumps-appraisers/story.aspx?guid=%7B1E820E1D%2DE0FF%2D43D8%2DA052%2D6CDCEAE6300B%7D
From the article: “Pat V. Combs, president of the 1.3-million-member National Association of Realtors, was surprised to hear appraisers reporting undue pressure from real-estate brokers. Realtors routinely provide appraisers information to support the list price they assigned to a pending-sale property, including comps they used, and would be violating NAR’s code of ethics if they pushed for a value to support the offer price, Combs says.”
No, say it isn’t so. Realtors violating their blessed code of ethics? That just can’t be.
“Realtors violating their blessed code of ethics?”
Lol. I wonder if he means violating Article One: “Thou shalst do everything within thy means to promote and sell real estate!” , Article Two, “”Thou shalst do everything within thy means to promote and sell real estate!” or Article Three ” “Thou shalst do everything within thy means to promote and sell real estate!” ?
Article Zero: “Thou shalst lie every time thy lips move.”
Unbelievable. And appraisal fraud crap like that is SO pervasive and hard to catch that the likelihood of getting away with it is unfortunately dang high.
The only good thing about this fraud is that it’ll continue to put some FB’s into FL’s (F@cked Loans), thereby creating more future loan defaulters, which in turn will extend the current RE slump.
“A Placentia loan officer was arrested Wednesday after police say they caught him in the middle of stealing copper from a vacant Irvine building.”
LOL that is priceless. I think I saw this guy 2 weks ago. He was running crossing 6 lanes on the 405 for a couple of aluminum cans.
For me too this was the most enjoyable item in this afternoon’s post. Soldiers returning from Iraq will realize that even if they couldn’t succeed in training Iraqi police officers to stop the Iraqi public from stealing the infrastructure piecemeal, they are now well qualified to BECOME police officers to prevent the US public from stealing the infrastructure piecemeal.
check
checkcheck
A man of few words.
That’s what I like about you, Not Missing It…
“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” - John Maynard Keynes
I am planning to stay solvent even if it means never buying a home. And if I die first, so be it.
“A Placentia loan officer was arrested Wednesday after police say they caught him in the middle of stealing copper from a vacant Irvine building.”
I find that just awesome - a loan officer revealed for exactly what he is - a petty theif.
http://centralcoasthousingbubble.blogspot.com/
Aww, don’t sell him short, SLO Bear. He probably sold thousands of crappy loans before being arrested. That would make him a very *prolific* thief.
‘The Spanish real estate sector is not a bubble, it is a huge balloon. When it blows up there will be an enormous bang,’ said one Madrid trader.”
That is indeed a big balloon. What happened here in FL, CA , AZ and other coastal areas is nothing compared to what is going on in Spain. Small places in Madrid of 45m2 or 500 sqft goes for 250,000 euros or around 375,000 usd. That is crazy in a country where the average wage is around 1500 euros a month. I add this data from the Bank of Spain and it is dated back to 2004 in the middle of the bubble:
“The financial debt of Spanish households has soared, according to the Bank of Spain. Household debt rose above disposable income for the first time in 2004, up from just over half in 1997. Borrowing in Spain has tripled in eight years, rising from €200 billion ($240 billion) in 1996 to reach record levels of €595 billion—equal to 74.5 percent of the country’s gross domestic product.The bank blames the debt mainly on the rising cost of buying a house in Spain, where prices have skyrocketed by 150 percent since 1997. The average cost of a mortgage is now €124,000 ($147,000) whilst the average wage is €1,400 per month. It warns that many Spaniards are wagering their future well-being on the hope that property prices continue to rise”
I thought only Americans were greedy and stupid. Now it turns out the Japanese and Europeans pay even more for housing. How could this be? I bet it’s America’s fault
Actually, we still owe more when comparing our total HH debt to GDP vs. Spain: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/04/capital_commerc.html
I hope I know how to turn off italics.
O.k. I don’t know how to turn them off.
The NH article is an example of what the problem is to me.
We all hope for a basic standard of living.
Most people I know are not hoping for hot cars and vacations. They want a place to live for them and their kids and to save for college for those kids so they can do the same.
The bottom line is, as is proven by this blog, that no matter where you are in the country, that is toast if housing prices remain where they are. I understand how people did stupid stuff because they were afraid to be priced out forever. I felt that pressure but did the math at a fixed at 8% for the house I was looking out (would have had plenty of equity) and knew I couldn’t do this. Especially when compared to renting.
This is the case all over the country. The American Dream is DEAD at these prices. It’s every man or woman for themselves. Who do you think is going to blink?
I’m really interested to think what people will be writing a year from now.
I’m with you on the hot cars, and I’ve got no problem laying off the antiques and 8-foot plasma TVs. But people don’t need VACATIONS? Or did you mean HOT vacations, like $300-a-nite stays in cheesy Hawaiian resorts?
Seriously, without a couple of trips a year, just shoot me now! But that ain’t why we’re renting, lol.
I did turn them off.
I learned a lesson today!
Happy weekend to you all.
The Texas Hill Country is nice, but there’s no reason for exploding land prices there. It’s not like there is a limited supply of land.
In the last Austin bust at the bottom in 1990 or so, I bought 4 acre lot in Long Canyon to the West of Austin (close in) for $26K owner financed. It went for $85K in 1985. Sold it in 1992 for $46K.
Video clip of fund manager Ken Heebner comments on the mortgage market. It blew me away…
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.asxx?clip=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vvefEajX3Khs.asf
Excellent video. He predicts 20% price declines in 2007 alone in certain bubble cities.
already happened in boston,fl,az,nv
the wait is over ?
Great video. And I’m sure the NAR guest who backed out from appearing on the show really had “laryngitis.”
“Given the choice, most real estate agents and financial advisers say selling is the way to go because foreclosure ruins a person’s credit for years.”
Obviously brokers would push selling, because that means comissions instead of ending up on the REO list at the bank - however to actually sell a property - one needs a BUYER
Only an idiot would buy into this falling knife market
I would rather turn in the keys than take a $118K loss on a sale. Is your credit score really worth $100K? I would gladly sell my 725 credit score for that price.
Good point… depends on what else they could go after.
And a short sale will also affect the credit. Would you sell your credit score for $1000 a point?
From the first linked article (Washington Post): Two congressmen introduced a bill that would make forgiveness of foreclosure/short sale debt non-taxable (now, forgiveness of debt is taxable by the IRS.) this would be terrible law for several reasons. It would encourage people to take extra risk with limited consequences.
More foreclosures will result, and lenders will have to charge more rate and fees to cover additional risk/losses. So then everyone who borrows will pay more and taxpayers will cover the revenue loss.
Hopefully, this and other Knee jerk bail out proposals will not pass, and our President will have the sense to veto them.
I didn’t know the words “our President” and “sense” could be used in the same sentence.
Could be he’ll be against the proposals, before he’s for them, like Flipper.
Sensible: Ideologically, I’m on your side of this question. However, it might also encourage lenders and MBS buyers to insist on high LTV (among other things). Thus forestalling future bubbles?
It more gives a loophole for insider fraud. Not as blatant as forgiving all loan forgiveness ( I have the company loan me 1mil and then forgive it )
But for insiders ths could cause some ways to take huge risks with no reprocussions
Hard to imagine this kind of desperation. Or maybe it’s a scam. I don’t know. Shame, in any case.
From Craigslist:
fear of foreclose (fairfield / vacaville)
i would like to know if anyone can help a single parent. Im in need of some fiancial help to stop the foreclosure of my home. please if someone can help with any amount of money.I need $2500.00 help! I really need the money by 4/22/07 to stop the intent to foreclose please deposit any money into my B of A account#
Yes, the account number was posted.
I have a toll free hotline for this poor sap:
1-800-EAT-SH1T
I’ve been told that anyone posting on craiglist is a SCAMMER
Hey txchick57, you out there?
I’m opening up a thinkorswim account. You want the referral?
“‘Five months later, I lose $100,000,’ Taylor said. ‘I don’t think I can take $100,000 into the stock market and lose it faster.’”
Sigh.. Yes you can. (Bad memories of 2001 coming back…)
YEA!!!!
From the first linked article (Washington Post): Two congressmen introduced a bill that would make forgiveness of foreclosure/short sale debt non-taxable (now, forgiveness of debt is taxable by the IRS.) this would be terrible law for several reasons. It would encourage people to take extra risk with limited consequences.
This would be the beginning of a melt down faster than a coyote at a wool eating contest!
I can see your point, BUT most buyers today have no clue that they would owe tax on debt forgiveness, so if this changed tomorrow, what would be the change in behavior?
“‘Five months later, I lose $100,000,’ Taylor said. ‘I don’t think I can take $100,000 into the stock market and lose it faster.’”
Sweet…this thing is unraveling MUCH faster than even I ever thought possible.
And oh yea, before I get accused of being “unsensitive” to other peoples suffering….I admit it freely. I could give a rip what happens to all the stupid FBs, greedy flippers, and corrupt RE/Mortgage industry personnel.
Have a nice day!!!